Latest / The Scout and The Speculator / Talkin' Bowman with Big Bob's Cards - Episode 1

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Talkin' Bowman with Big Bob's Cards - Episode 1 · The Scout and The Speculator

• Jaba: Hello everybody and welcome back to the Scout and the Speculator Podcast. This is Will Jarvis, also known as Jabba Cards, joined by my co-host Jeremy Brown of Perfect Game Baseball, more importantly known as JGB underscore cards underscore. And also joined by our special guest, Big Bob from Big Bob's Cards and Prospect Analytics. It's what? At Big Bob's Cards on Twitter. And then you made the Instagram now at Prospect Analytics, I believe. Bob: Yep, and then the site is I Jaba: I'm kinda surprised you could get that handle. Bob: know the site is prospect dash analytics dot com. Jaba: Okay. Bob: But the yeah, the Instagram is prospect analytics. Jheremy: and Bowmanio. Jaba: You have to pay you have to pay a kid off for that? Some guy with like a dead page. Bob: No, they ch they tried to get me on the on the website when I did the prospect dash analytics. Whoever owns the prospect analytics was was trying to get me to buy it from them and I was like, I don't care that much. Jaba: No. Yeah. Yeah, that's like Dahl with Prospect Pulse V one. He was Bob: Yeah. Jaba: saying that Prospect Pulse was like three grand and it's No. Like people will find Bob: Dude, they have crazy they have crazy asking prices. Jaba: Yeah, no, it's it it's insane. That's like a lot of my buddies have been getting married and I was saying I'm gonna make Instagram accounts in what the name of their wife will be once she changes her last name. I was like, I'm gonna hold hostage so you guys have to pay me so your wife can get a new Instagram. Bob: Hey, it's not a bad that's a hell of a side business. Jaba: Yeah, people got really mad 'cause I think they thought Bob: Yeah. Jaba: I was serious. But anyhow, we're here to talk about Bowman. We've been chatting about Bowman kinda all day. And we decided it was probably time to hit the record button. So Bob, why don't you I guess briefly, I think most people will be familiar with your work, but why don't you just kick off kinda telling people what you do, where they can consume it and where they can find it, and then we'll just get into our normal Bowman talk. Bob: yeah, I I post a lot of stuff on t Twitter. I'm I'm trying to be more active on Instagram. I'm just I'm not used to it yet. but on Twitter at Big Bob's Cards and then the site is prospect dash analytics dot com and basically it's prospect rankings for Bowman. It's something that when I got into Bowman I feel like no one did. I still feel like no one really does it. so Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: I kind of created my own formula based on you know what matters, what makes cards sell, position, team, age, and all that good stuff, and kinda formulated my my own rankings. We try to find players that, you know, are are are undervalued based on all the all the boxes they check. And we've had some success Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: over the years. So it's been been pretty fun. Jaba: For sure. And you're you have a sub stack as well, right? Or did that just go over to the site? Bob: I switched it over to the site, yep. It started we Jaba: Okay. Yeah. Bob: were I started on Substack originally before I made the site. Jaba: Right. Yeah, and I I think, you know, to plug Bob here, I've been a subscriber for a while, Jeremy has too. it's great. I mean, you get emails. How many articles do you put out a week? I mean, three, five? There's Bob: Yeah, during during the season it's a lot. It's during the season it's like four. During the off season, like two to three. Jaba: Yeah, and it's always always a highlight for me seeing that one pop up. I enjoy reading about and like you said, I mean, for Hez Popular as Bowman is, we kind of discussed this in our last episode, even if it's not the largest kind of base of people in terms of numbers. I think so many people who do Bowman are hardcore into it. I don't think there's like a ton of casual Bowman people. I think we're all kind of big data nerds and we're all super into it. And I I think it's fascinating. Like you said, there's really just not a lot of places where you can kind of get all that data or even find other people to talk about it with. And I think that's the great thing about Your site and obviously Dahl with Prospect Pulse as well. You know, those are really kind of the only two places where people can go and get data and you know, see write up, see people's opinions. And that's honestly a big part of what inspired us to make this podcast because we were saying, look, there's such a void in the market, especially once you shifted kind of more firmly to just writing. We were like, hey, you know, the writing's great, we're not really gonna be able to break in there, you know, there's no reason. To try to break in there. What people probably want more as like a supplement is audio version. And obviously, we're probably not saying the exact same things, but we do, I think, value the same things in these prospects. There's obviously only so many guys where it's like, okay, you know, Bob's got the writing under control, and there's a space for us to kind of get into the podcast space and talk about similar guys and give people that option. And I I think it's great having you know, having you on here. I think we were both really excited and it's funny because we both work with Dahl a lot. You know, I think we're getting a lot of our data from the same place. And it's it's just been really fun for us over the past few months, kind of building this up and getting to know people, working with people like Dahl and yourself. And, you know, we're just kind of excited about the growth of the podcast. But you know, before Before we get derailed, I I do want to ask, and you had kind of mentioned this in what you were saying, when you're building out your formulas and kind of those models you have, because if anybody's ever read your articles, they know it's not just like you know some word dump where you're just scrolling through a bunch of words. There's good writing, and then there's also you know the Excel charts with all of the data, you know, you're putting in their prices, their expected prices, buy ratings, and then below you're talking about why. But when you're putting together the the raw data itself, you had mentioned And I think a lot of people don't put enough weight into this. You mentioned that you think about teams, collector base, kind of even positional value. How do you when you're tweaking your value, I'm sure there's a lot less tweaking now now that you've kind of got an established product, but how do you see teams markets, positional value, kind of those secondary things that if you're looking at a baseball card you may not think about? You're kind of just looking at the stats on the back. How do you kind of run through that exercise, those gymnastics of weighing in, hey, this guy plays for the Yankees versus playing for the Rockies, or this guy's a catcher versus a center fielder with potential gold glove talent out there. Bob: Yeah, it started as like a it started as more trial and error than anything, honestly. it started with me basically taking, say obviously I get all of my pricing data from Prospect Pulse. Dahl's been extremely helpful with all of that from the start of my sub stack. I I I couldn't do any of the things that I do with the updated prices without without what he does. but yeah, basically it started as, you know, I take the list of the top twenty-five or so. most expensive guys and I would compare them to my rankings and I would look for like outliers. Like I would be like, well, why do I have this guy three, my number three prospect, and he's selling for 70 bucks and this guy selling for 150. And then it would start eventually I I I found not like reverse engineered, but kind of reverse engineered it into figuring out how much a position, how much a team, how much that stuff matters. I can tell you that one example of it, he gets love now. was Raniel Rodriguez. The first time I put Rainier Jaba: Yeah. Bob: Rodriguez into my rankings, it was like this is the number one prospect in baseball. This is the he should have the most expensive Bowman auto. And at the time, this was prior to this season, he was like $75. And I remember that because I remember Jaba: Yeah. Bob: making him a buy on my Cardinals buy sheet. And I wanted to make him a five out of five, but I made him a four out of five because I was like, well, he's a catcher. And even at four out of five, I got pushback from people. And they were like, $75 for a catcher is, you know, that's that's crazy. That's so expensive for a catcher. And then you start like second guess, you're man, dang, is that crazy for a catcher? Jaba: Yeah. Bob: but I'm glad that I like trusted the numbers because like I said, I I had to add in a positional adjustment for catchers because it's just not a position that the hobby loves. So I Jheremy: Yep. Bob: think that took him down to like he's still inside my top ten. I think he's still like five or six or something like that. But it was like enough to where the prices Like started to line up. And then another one was Dax Kilby, was another example of the opposite thing where it was like he was my th 30, 30 fifth ranked prospect or whatever, and his base auto Jaba: Right. Bob: was 95 dollars. And I was like, Well, how much is this? Because he's a shortstop. How much is it because he's a Yankees prospect? And basically I just messed with those values enough to where it all got to a point where they they kind of made sense. Jaba: Yeah. I Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: I I think that nuance is so important because we've started doing with Bowman Chrome you know, we're doing a weekly buy sell hold. And when we get into the sell and the hold, a lot of the time, like yesterday, the sell was Francisco Renteria and the hold was Johansi Colomb. And I felt like we had to lead with the caveat. We were like, okay, well both these guys are really good baseball players and we really like a lot. We're not saying that they're bad at baseball, but, you know, the value just doesn't match up. And I I think for you mentioning Dax Kilby for example, where it's a guy where you say, Okay, well he's a Yankee shortstop He came out out of the draft, went right to single A, did great, but then, you know, you have to kinda look overhead and say, Okay, well it was a small sample. This year he's been hurt and I think for you, I'm sure that's probably a little nerve wracking being the either the high guy or the low guy compared to consensus on people. Bob: It's Jaba: Because I'm sure like you said, I I was gonna say when you put Ryan L as a as a four even, I was about to ask you if you got any pushback and before I could ask, you said that you did. Bob: Yeah, kill Kilby is extremely tough for me because I you also like to look at like historical, like there are you can look back and see what prospects have sold for. I remember when I was first getting into Bowman was when Anthony Volpe was breaking through. And if you remember Jheremy: Thank Bob: the craze behind Anthony Volpey cards, it's almost impossible to say that Dax Kilby is overvalued. Because if you become a Yankee shortstop prospect who is a top 10 prospect. You know, today it might seem like his base autograph at fifty, sixty dollars is expensive. If he's good, it'll be two hundred dollars by next year. So it's like it's so hard when you get into like those team things and the positional things, like being Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: the shortstop for the Yankees is such like a, you know, it's it's really hard to like weigh those things. So yeah, I'm always afraid to say someone's Jaba: Right. Yeah, i it was the same thing with Lombard. Bob: overrated or underrated because it it can really come back to bite you. Jheremy: road and then Jaba: Yeah, 'cause like like you said with the Yankees shortstop thing, I mean it's like Lombard obviously a good player Bob: Lombard two, yep. Jaba: and he's played generally pretty well. But it's like when he got called up and hit a home run his first game, it's like that is just such a pop. I mean, Jheremy: and the stuff went nuts. Nuts. Jaba: y you see the pop across the board, but Bob: He he was another one. He was another one that even with the Yankees adjustment and shortstop adjustment, my formula always from day one had George Lombard as overvalued. It it didn't and I there's Jheremy: I remember you saying that. Bob: certain in you get outliers like that where I'm always like, should I like reload, should I like tweak some of the things, or should I just let there be an outlier every year? I can Jheremy: You have to have that one. Bob: tell you that, yeah, like Andrew Fisher is an outlier in my formula this year. And Jaba: Yeah. Bob: Early on I was like, do I need to adjust for this? Or do I just accept the fact that there are going to be one or two players every year that I just that it it Jaba: Right. Bob: never makes sense for me? And Jheremy: you're not gonna be on. Yeah. Bob: and that's kind of where I've landed, is it like listen, there's some players that I will just never own cards of. And I think that that's fine because there are so many Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: others. Jheremy: It also just proves you're Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: not buying anybody that puts up good stats or has a moment, like you stay convicted to what you have, right? So, and I... Bob: Yeah, I mean, like I Jaba: Yeah. Bob: I was like the number one Spencer Jones hater, and he Jheremy: You're right. Bob: to his credit, is better in the MLB than I thought. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: He I thought that he was gonna get called up and bat 150. Like I was so sure Jheremy: Right. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: that his hitting approach wouldn't work. And not to say that it is working, but it's definitely better than I expected, which then starts to make you Jaba: Yeah. yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: wonder all the people who, you know, myself included, who have penalized Andrew Fisher for his in zone contact rates, stuff like that. And it's like, well Spencer Jones is making it work is this this new school age of hitting where you can miss strikes 50% of the time as long as every time you hit them, they go out of the park, you know, like so it's like it it's tough trying to find because every day it seems like this hitting is reinvented and there's players like Andrew Fisher and Brandon Compton, where like look at the savant page and you're like, mmm, it doesn't really make sense, you know? But it's Jaba: This shouldn't work. Yeah. Bob: so I I I've tried to adjust Andrew Fisher's one that I've just gotten. just a ton of flack for this year because I mean he c he came out and his base auto is a hundred dollars. And I'm like, if you look back historically, the track record for a college hitter sustaining a base autograph over a hundred dollars before he debuts when he's not a top ten pick is like zero. Like the sample size is, you know, you can't account for a guy like him going out and hitting forty eight home runs. And I just have to Jaba: Yeah. Cause Jheremy: Exactly. Bob: accept that I was that I was wrong and not change anything. Jaba: Yeah, 'cause when when when it came out he was so high and I was like, okay, well, everyone loved Team Italy and the WBC. He was on that team, you know, this is probably just a little inflated because of that. And ha as the year went on, Jeremy and I were talking and it was like, Okay, well, I'm still out on Fisher. I know he hit eight home runs this month, but you know, that's just sustainable. And then and then we're like, Bob: And every week it was like, Well, eventually this is gonna stop. Jaba: Okay, at a certain point and Jheremy: never stopped. Jaba: we've kind of settled where you are now, where we're like Okay, like this actually might work. Like we're still not gonna buy anything. But i it's enough of a sample. It's like once he hit fifty, including the playoffs, we're like, okay, well, we might be wrong there. And I think an important part of kind of making these analyses of players is like you said, you have to just kinda be okay being wrong on a few guys a year. It's like if you have your system and you don't like it, I think it's great what you said where You're like, okay, well, some guys just aren't gonna fit and that's okay. Because I feel like the minute you start tweaking it to kinda go with the consensus, I feel like that's when people I I don't wanna say lose credibility, but I feel like I a reason why I continue to read your stuff and like your stuff is because I think people respect someone where they're like, Okay, well my model still doesn't like this guy, I know everybody else does, but like for me it's a no. Yeah. Bob: Yeah, like I I can tell you, I can tell you another one, another perfect example on the opposite end of Fisher. Per perhaps the most opposite type of prospect is Fisher. And another player that I've gotten a lot of heat for for not being ranked high enough is Franklin Arius. And I just he's another player where I've just accepted that everyone's gonna be have him ranked higher than me. I Jaba: Yeah. Bob: I don't see I the the home run increase this year was extremely encouraging, but I watched him hit it on the backfield. He lit it's right down the street for me all spring. He's back here at Jet Blue and I watch him face live pitching and he's I d I just don't see him as a twenty five home run bat. I know that he was this year, but when you get up into these guys, like everyone's like, Franklin area should be ranked higher than Dapaula. And I'm like, I j I can't get there. I j I just Jaba: Yeah. Bob: as much as I want to like him. And I do like him. You know, like I I think I had an article where he was like my like my tenth ranked hitting prospect. And like the first three comments, everyone was like, Franklin Arius, too low. And I'm just like, you know, Jheremy: Heh. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: there's I think that that's just gonna happen. But I like you said, once you start changing the way you do things, I think you open yourself up to being wrong more often. And I'd rather just stick Jaba: Yeah. Bob: in my lane and just accept that I'm gonna be wrong a couple times. Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe Franklin Arias is a 30 home run big league. Jaba: Yeah, and I I think that kinda leads me into asking you the question. Obviously we're always looking at these from a baseball card value standpoint and not a MLB player standpoint. For the most part, it's pretty, you know, hand in hand. But you get the guys like Franklin Arias, where it's like, okay, well he's gonna be a really good defensive shortstop. He's gonna get on base. He's not super fast and going into this year obviously there was no pop. And now you can kind of debate how real that pop is. And I think since it slowed down at triple A, I think people have come back down to earth a little bit. But how do you look at these guys like a Franklin Arias or kind of just any of that type of guy where it's like I don't want to say necessarily glove first, but the best tools are kind of the hit tool and the glove where the power and the speed is what's sexy. Because I feel comfortable saying like if I was ranking the top ten prospects for output, I feel like I'd have Franklin Arias right up there with anyone, just because if he can even put up like a seven fifty OPS, that's a really valuable real life player, but that's not gonna cut it in Bowman. So like how How do you kind of discern these guys where it's like, okay, there's no card value, but he's still gonna be a good player, or the opposite where it's like, hey, this guy's really risky. He has all the traits you like, like a Fisher, where it's like we don't know like if he'll be able to carve out a starting role with his weaknesses. Bob: Yeah, it's tough because I also don't hold any prospects past their debut unless they Jaba: Yeah. Bob: are extremely, extremely underrated. so it's more to me about how much hype you can generate while still being a minor leaguer. Jheremy: Yep. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: I actually don't I know there are, you know, like a lot of people are factoring in like MLB output. I actually don't really care. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: And I tell people all the time, they're like, you know, they're well, well, why are you buying this guy? Like, you really think that he's gonna be a good MLB player? I'm like, I don't even care if he makes it to the MLB. If he's Jaba: Yeah. Bob: good enough in high A for his card prices to double, I don't care if he even makes it past that level, you know? So Jheremy: Yep. Yeah. Right. Bob: that is tough because there is like with part of the reason that I liked I actually had as much as I kind of get heat for hating him. I had Arias as as a buy at sixty-five dollars he was this offseason, which he tripled. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: but part of the angle there was that the Red Sox Justin Gonzalez didn't have a card yet. The Red Sox didn't have any now that Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Bob: after Roman debuted, the list of Red Sox hitting prospects with a Bowman card going into this year was like zero. It was Franklin Arius or nothing. They didn't have anybody. So that's why he was a buy for me was because you have this big fan base. You knew that as he got closer to the MLB, just like they do with Jaba: Yeah. Bob: Lombard and the Yankees players, that the fan base would start, you know, kind of freaking out and pumping that card value up. the added power was just a bonus. But I will say I Jaba: Yeah. Bob: as much as I try to stay away, it it really depends on the price. Like if you are a contact first, good glove type player and you're sixty-five dollars like Arias. Then I'm gonna be like, hmm, but if you're four or five bucks, I mean, I'm gonna take Jaba: Yeah. Bob: a chance on that. Jheremy: What's there to lose? Exactly. Bob: Cause it's like defense, you know, people always say the hobby doesn't care about defense, but the hobby does care about age versus level. And you might not I always tell people one way to guarantee that you can move levels in the minor leagues is by being an elite defender. So it's like you can be a lot of these guys will be. 105, 110 WRC plus guys, and they'll just keep getting promoted because they're if you're that good of a defensive shortstop, the teams are gonna keep building you up. And then next thing you know, if you're 19 years old and you're in double A, I I don't know that it even matters if it's for defense, you know. Like I Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Right. Bob: so it's long term, are they exciting hobby players? No, I would have said like Sam Antonacci is an example of a player that I bought at like four or five bucks, and then when he got to like 20, I was like, Well, I'm out because he's not gonna hit for power. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: yeah, I think it's kind of like a case by case. It's to me like how quickly you can move in the minor leagues, how much like hype you can generate as a minor leaguer. And then if you get to the point where you're in triple A and you've been doing it for four or five years and your card price has just never gone up and it's you're still a ten dollar base auto, I'll hold you in into the MLB just because Jaba: Yeah. Bob: you know, like who was one last year? Jesus Rodriguez was an example of that. I had a couple of Jesus Rodriguez autos, and I'm like, this guy's hit. at every level and no one cares. If he gets Jaba: Yeah. Bob: you know, in his base autos he gets called up, his base auto goes from ten to twelve. I'm like, I'm not selling for two dollars, you know. Jheremy: Great. Bob: Then those Jaba: Yeah. Bob: guys are the type of guys where I'm like, I feel like you roll the dice and and see that if those skills translate to, you know, MLB success. But yeah, I would say for the most part, I'm trying to bottle minor league hype. Jaba: Yeah, and i i it it's funny you say that 'cause I think Jeremy and I both agree with that. And Jeremy, early on in recording these, Jeremy, what's the term you coined for? Jheremy: the Bowman, we're just waiting for that Bowman, whatever it is, whether it's the, your Bowman moment, just like a two home run game or just pipeline put something out. Like young Jacques Zhang had his Bowman and I had a true gold sitting in a white box that I sold. I probably bought for 50 bucks and sold for 400 because they tweeted about them. Like it's the smallest of things. I mean, even you tweeting about some guys, it's like, let's go dig those guys out and just list them. Cause people listen to what you say and they're gonna go buy them. like, I've definitely done that. I've bought some guys based off what you've said. And I just want to like the age to level thing for me, just doing what I do too is so huge. And we've talked about it a lot. And I think starting the podcast kind of around the DSL, the, the Bowman Chrome release is like really like harping into, into it where like Andre Hidalgo, for example, is just somebody we're buying. or I've bought, Jabba's bought some. Like, if you took him out of the DSL and put him in the United States as a six foot five lefty at 17 throwing 99 with an 80s or a 70 grade slider, like you're talking about a potential top five pick. But because he threw 10 innings in the Dominican in the DSL and struck out two batters an inning, or maybe it was five innings, struck out two an inning, 10, walked five, like people don't want to touch him. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: But like go watch the video. It's the same thing that happened with Sadby Al Delzine. which also kind Bob: Mm-hmm. Jheremy: of relays into the whole Franklin Arias. Like they traded away Witherspoon, they traded away Einsten. He is the top arm now. Like I think that is just like all the signs kind of lined up there. And Hidalgo is just a guy that I think just based off the age to level. And it seems like it's something high that something you're high on as well of like the age to level. So Hidalgo obviously being more of just taking him out of the DSL, putting him in high school and just like. focusing on what that would be. It's like, he'd be a high school junior throwing 99 as a 6'5 lefty. Bob: Yeah, I I feel like a age versus level is probably the biggest component of my rankings. It matters Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: to me more than any stat. And and I will take that to my grave. I nothing else. It's like almost all the time when people are like, Hey, this guy has really good stats. why are his cards so cheap? The answer Jheremy: Yep. Bob: is either he doesn't hit for power. Or he's too old for the level he's at. That's those Jheremy: Right. Bob: are the only, you know, those are almost always the only two answers. And age versus Jaba: Yeah. Bob: level is a big one. There was a post going around. Ellery quote tweeted it the other and said, Is this bait? Did you see that? The guy who was like Jaba: I was about to mention this. I was I was literally gonna bring it up. Bob: the guy who was like, I'm so unimpressed. How's Jesus Mede, the number one prospect? He's batting 270. Well, he's 19 in double A. I mean, like, be for real. Like, I Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. 19. Bob: think that it's just like a like an aspect that people don't really look at. It's why I was so high. It's unfortunately he lost almost an entire year, but Sebastian Walcott was the same way last year where everyone's Jaba: Yeah. Bob: like, Well, the stats aren't that good. And I'm like, Well, he was eighteen in double A. You know, like that's Jheremy: Right. Bob: like that has to matter to you more than Jheremy: Right. Bob: like most of these guys, like, yeah, we get excited about these college hitters who come out and hit forty home runs in a season. Well, you have to consider that Jesus when they were Jesus Mine's age, they were riding the bench at a D two college. Like the you Jheremy: Right. Bob: know, like like and he's in Jaba: Yeah. Bob: double A. Like that's it's it's something Jheremy: Yeah. That yeah. Bob: that it it really you can almost look like at the beginning of the year, I think I Dahl made me like a roster breakdown of all the minor league teams and in the column next to the names, it had like the age versus level, the minus or whatever. You could almost sort the top ten priced hitting prospects by Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Bob: age to level. It was like every prospect Jaba: Yeah. Bob: that was three or four years younger than the average player at that level. Jheremy: We're all up there. Bob: wasn't a hundred dollar base auto. I mean, that's it is, as much as people want to look at stats, it is one of the most important parts when it comes to cards. You look at like a guy like Eli Willitz. You know, when he got drafted, everyone Jheremy: Yep. Bob: was like, well I know if he has the power. He's playing in single A. That's when he got drafted when he was 17 and he was already in single A. Like, yeah, that that'll do it. Jheremy: Yeah, he reclassed up. Yeah. Yep. It's just it's it's Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: fun it's interesting to watch and like I get it from both sides and like a another moment was Ryan Wideman was on the cover of Baseball America one year or one week on the website. Like he was twenty three in high A. Like I had a true blue, a true yellow, a couple basin refractor. Like I sold all immediately for like eight times my money. Like I bought a true blue for s thirty bucks and sold it for two fifty. Like Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: that was just like Bob: Yeah. Jheremy: he he did what he should be doing. Like Murph Gray was twenty two in high A this year. Like he did well upon promotion, he struggled at first and then did what he did, but like him, Fisher, like there's a lot of guys like they're facing superior competition to what they had just faced for a whole year of college at twenty one. Like Fisher was in the SEC. Not saying what he did in the minor leagues isn't impressive because I mean shit, he hit fifty home runs, like That's impressive in Little League, that's impressive Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: in A ball, double A, big leagues, anywhere you play baseball, MLB the show. Like but he was probably facing equivalent talent in the SEC weekend after weekend when he was with Tennessee. So it just like for me was like, take a step back and kinda let's break it Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: actual down Bob: It Jheremy: and not get too heavy. Bob: it makes it so hard to like rank college bats for me for Bowman Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: because a lot of them, I guess it depends where you're drafted. Some of them will come out in high A. but the ones that come out where it's like Even Sam Antonacci. Like I I bought Sam Antonacci, but he was one I think who came out in single A and just like dominated. And it's like, how much weight can you give to a 21-year-old kid Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Right. Bob: tearing up single A pitching against a bunch of kids who just came out of high school? You know? Like it's Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: not so that's a very I I ended up coming around on him in a big way this year, but I was like that with Charles Davilon for a little bit too. Where where I was like, these stats Jaba: I w I was gonna I I was gonna ask you about him, yeah. Bob: are unreal, but I you like you said, you come out of the SEC. Shouldn't you be able to hit low A and high A pitching? Now we know that he looks legit, but Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Right. You should be doing that. Right, exactly. Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. I well I I I think he's particularly interesting and I I was about to bring him up because obviously he's an example of what we were just talking about with the age to level I mean he's what, twenty-two, twenty-three? He did win the VP of high A, so like he did everything he could have done at the level he was placed at. But at the Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: same time, it's like, okay, well, how different is that than facing SEC Pidging when he was at Arkansas? And then you have the added thing for guys like him, where obviously he's playing second base now in the AFL. We'll see how that works and hopefully he can stick there and move a little bit. But for him it wasn't just, hey, you know, he's old and dominating at this level because you saw Murph Gray start. At single A and then eventually make it to double A. Davalon was in high A all year, I think. I don't even think he started in single A. He may have, but I'm pretty sure he spent the entire Bob: I think he better been high. Jaba: year there. And for a guy like that, you have the added thing of okay, well, the double A outfield was what? It was DePala, Hope until the end of the season, and Sorota. It's like, okay, Jheremy: Sorota, I think. S yeah. Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: so like really, what is he supposed to do? Like, there's really nothing you can do. And like for guys like that, it's just such a puzzle. Because it's like, okay, like he's not. Not only dominating, he's literally the MVP of the league. But again, it's like, you know, he's older, and it's like, well, he was blocked. And I I think some of those guys are so tricky, and it's like a a puzzle almost for us to put together saying, Okay, well, this is a positive, this is a negative, but this negative wasn't his fault, and then you know, you can kinda go back and forth with yourself all day on it. But I think like you said Something for me, when I see those college guys in like the second and the third round get assigned to single A, even if it's just how some I mean, some organizations are just more aggressive than others, but like when Murph Gray went down to single A, I I just didn't want anything to do with him, even though he was going nuts, he was great, he was great in high A and solid in double A. But like when I see a guy come out, especially like a SEC guy, where they go to single A and it's like, he's turning twenty-three next. went through like for me that's just kinda like a death blow. Bob: And that kind of ends up being Murph Gray's a perfect example of a player that I don't own any autographs of because Jaba: Yeah. Bob: by the time they hit at a level where I fear c feel comfortable saying, Okay, I think this is for real, he's already out of my price range. so it's like by the time I've Jheremy: Far too famous. Jaba: Yeah. Or he or he gets to the level and sucks. Bob: Right. So it's like everyone will pump these guys up when they're crushing single-A pitching, and I want to see them face double-A pitching. But by the time they Jheremy: Right. Bob: get there, if they've been good all year, like Murph Gray has. Then it's like you when do you ever have a chance to buy it? And I mean, even Andrew Fisher, Fisher was, I remember doing my 2026 Bowman rankings for hitters. I remember because as I start writing the articles, I'll rank all the guys. And then as I write the articles, I move them around because I convince myself that I like some Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. Bob: more than others. I couldn't tell you how many Jaba: For sure. Bob: times I moved back and forth Andrew Fisher and Iva Arquette. They were literally a coin flip for me. So like to see the difference in direction that they're like. I Ivarcet's just been hurt. But like you said, Jaba: Yeah. Bob: Andrew Fisher comes out, hits fifty home runs, and now he's what gotta be close to a two hundred dollar base auto. those college guys, they I feel like the price just gets crazy Jaba: Yeah, he's at least like one sixty, one seventy. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: so fast. Wihiwa Aloy's price got crazy so fast. Like these guys start Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: hot at like a lower level, and then I feel like they're just like never a good like price. The college Jheremy: Right. Bob: college bats are always they're always tough for me. Jaba: Especially especially if it's like the Bowman that comes out in late April, early May versus being in draft. 'Cause I feel like you can kinda steal some of those guys at draft because it's like, okay, Bob: yeah. Jaba: well, there's still three months. But then you get the guys like you mentioned, Aloy, Arquette, and Fisher, most notably, where they Jheremy: That are all hyped up. Jaba: come out what, like around May first? So it's like i Jheremy: Yeah, and they're already hyped up to the gills. Jaba: if these guys hit the ground running even at a low level, everyone's just you know, I don't think A lot of people say, well he's at single A or even high A people are just like, Bob: Could you imagine? Jaba: this guy's a thirteen hundred OPS you know. Bob: Could you imagine if Andrew Fisher was in 25 draft before Jaba: Yeah. Bob: he played in the WBC, his base autograph would have been under $40. Without a doubt. Hundred percent. Yeah, exactly. Jheremy: Yeah. I would have said thirty, thirty. Yeah. And I would have bought all of them. Like from Jaba: Yeah, yeah, yeah. Jheremy: the time he was Jaba: Ha ha. Jheremy: fifteen on, he was like just the purest hitter on the circuit. And it's like, yeah, I like him a lot. Then he came out and it's like, Well, it's too late. Same thing with Justin Gonzalez, right? Like the hype had already Bob: Mm-hmm. Jheremy: built to a point where it wasn't like I guess I'll wait for the dip and then you have like that finite small moment of a dip. It's like, Well, I should have bought there and then they it it just Bob: Yeah, Justin Gonzalez was down for what, like one week? His price came down. Jheremy: Yeah, like down Jaba: Yeah, Jheremy: to like sixty bucks. Jaba: 'cause Keith Law said he moves like he got like a deer that got hit by a car or something. And then he just started hitting Bob: Yeah, it is Jheremy: But yeah. Jaba: out of his mind. Bob: But yeah, it is much easier Jheremy: No way. Bob: to find the value if they're in draft for sure because like you said, they haven't played yet. Like Devin Taylor was Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: a great example. I feel like no one knew Jaba: Yeah. Bob: who Devin Taylor was in twenty five draft. I think Fisher Fisher could have been that cheap, I think. Jheremy: Which is wild 'cause like go ahead. For sure. Like Taylor had one one hype like heading into the spring of his junior year. Like we had him up in the top five. It's like, can he stay healthy? Can he put enough barrel on the ball? Were like the concerns and now we're seeing it. Same thing, like he's still relatively cheap Jaba: And he's still thirty dollars. He's in triple A. Bob: Yeah, he's he's great. Jheremy: for what he is. Like, but then again, is it like is it an a Las Vegas thing? I almost said Oakland. Like, isn't it an athletics thing that's keeping him down a little bit? Like Kurtz isn't a Bob: Yeah, probably. Jheremy: future MVP and you can still have him relatively cheap. I was gonna piggyback off what you said about Fisher. Like, could you imagine if Kevin McGonagall was in twenty three draft and Max Clark would have been your chase, like, all the way through? The same way Max Bob: I'd be rich. Jheremy: Sanderson Jaba: It would have been ten dollars. Jheremy: He would have been like the third thought. Like you would have had Max Clark, then you have the other Max, and then you have McGonagall, who is the older high school prep hitter. Bob: You know what's Jaba: It's total hit tool first with no power at that point. Bob: you know what's funny is mg Jheremy: Like Bob: McGonagal. I'm gonna have to dig up the article. The perfect example of me saying I was flipping a coin between Andrew Fisher and Ivar Ket. When I did Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: my 2025 Bowman rankings on Substack, I had to make and I never do one A, one B. I will always find a way to rank one and two. I Jheremy: Something. Yep. Bob: almost went one A one B with Jesus Mede Kevin McGonagall. And when their prices came out. I think McGonagall had just like sprained his ankle. He was hurt. Jesus Made Jheremy: And they were like this. Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: was, I think after a week or two, Jesus Maday was 250 and Kevin McGonagall like 75 bucks. And the whole time I was like, Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: this is insane. Like Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: this is just a huge miss by everybody. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: It's and now I but now I feel like the Bowman market is like it's efficient and it's not efficient. Like I feel like those gaps have kind of are starting to as Jaba: Yeah. Bob: more informed people get involved, you Jaba: Yeah, I Jheremy: All right. Bob: you lose lose some of those opportunities. Jaba: I think it's 'cause like, you know, with those hit tool guys Like you see a McGonagall and you look at the stat line on MILB and you see, I don't know, I'm just guessing probably like eleven homers. You're like, okay, well this guy's like a slap hitter. And then Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you look into it more, it's like, okay, well, he was roping balls. He was hitting balls really hard. Everyone was saying, you know, the launch angle's getting better, you know, the power's really grown. He's kind of always had the ability to hit it hard, but now he's actually kind of optimizing it. I feel like Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: like you said, even like a year and a half ago, there was an opportunity Where people kind of didn't make that connection between, like the Homer total isn't great. And like, I mean, I'm not saying he's like a 40 home run guy, but like it's enough to be valuable. Bob: For sure. Jaba: people didn't really look into it enough to see, okay, well, there's a lot of reason to believe that this homer total is going to grow with time. And I think a guy for me, on the other side, Anthony Ianson was a guy where I made a lot of money this winter. And I think a thing people. people overlook because you had said you know, you don't really care how a guy does in the majors. Like it's nothing Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: against them, but like w I think we're both the same way where it's like, you know, I wish him all the best, but like I'm out at that point. Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: usually way before. But for me, I I think the next market inefficiency is these pitchers like Ianson and Zeroa, where it's like they pitched really well at an SEC school, the command is advanced, the secondaries are advanced, and the fastball's like ninety-three miles an hour without great Bob: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know Know IBB without all the metrics you want to see. And I think those guys come in so cheap. Like Ianson, I was buying his base autos at $15. I was buying, Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Jaba: you know, I was buying blues at $80. And it's like the foundation is just so high for those guys after succeeding in the SEC. It's like the same thing as like a Charles Davon where it's like Ianson went to high A and he looked like you know prime Jose Fernandez. I mean, he he was just and then in spring training you get the the hype moment where because everyone knows it's like, you know, the the VLO is really the only thing keeping this guy from being huge and then he comes out throwing ninety nine and Jheremy: Right. Jaba: you know, that didn't sustain at all. But once you get that moment where everyone's talking Bob: That's the mo Jaba: about him throwing ninety nine, that's when it's just gone. It's gone forever. Jheremy: Bowman. Bowman. Bob: I I know a lot of people who made money on his Bowman moment because I actually went down to the fields. I think it was like the first It was the first time that those guys threw live and they were working out in a trio. Kison Witherspoon, Anthony Isen, and Marcus Phillips were working out in a trio. And I went down there with Andrew Parker from Sox Prospects and he was talking to the guy who had the little, you know, the little iPad and was doing the readings or whatever. I honestly wanted to see I knew about Kison Witherspoon. Obviously, we knew I wanted to see Marcus Phillips because I had never seen he's dude just Jaba: Excuse me. Bob: Justin Gonzalez was there too. I started telling people about Justin Gonzalez then because he walked past me and I looked up his fangraphs and he was listed at 6'3. And I was like, bro, Jaba: Yeah. Bob: I'm 6'1. He's a half a half a head taller than I am. Jheremy: Right. Bob: but I went to watch those pictures and it was right before all the reports came out about Ianson. And they started throwing a bullpen, and you know, he's looking over the iPad and he was like, Ianson's sitting 95-97. And I was like, what? And I was like, this is Jaba: Yeah. Bob: the guy who I remember throwing like 92 at LSU. Like when I watched him, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Right. Bob: like when I did my my Bowman draft report, it was like you said, really good command, really good secondaries. But I was like, that fastball is gonna get just eaten alive, was Jheremy: Yeah, you know. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: my original thought. and I actually told some people, I was like, I'm pretty Ianson's throwing like 95, 97. But you're right. I remember a tweet coming out where it was just his velocity, it was like his pen, or it might have been his first. Jaba: Yeah. I think it was Sox Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Prospects who posted it. Yeah, 'cause I follow them, I think they're great. And they posted that. I was like, Yes. Bob: It I think it was them. And it was like he was throwing ninety seven and his stuff went his stuff went through the roof. Jheremy: I think it was Andrew who posted it, yeah. Bob: Like you said, boom and moment. That was that's it for some. Jheremy: That's all it takes though, is like that one thing where it's flashing triple digits. Like we've talked about it, like Brandon Clark's not throwing in the AFL, but like had he'd come out and just had one tweet from pipeline throwing one one from the left side, like everything would go. Miguel Simey had the same thing. Like this teenager is throwing a hundred and four. Like, that's all it takes. Jarlin Susana with the the activity we did was an easy pick, like he's gonna throw we know he's gonna throw hard and we know they're gonna tweet about it. So like get him. Bob: You know, you know who else was another one? And it's a shame because I think his injury announcement came like one week later, was I remember it was actually his agent posted a video on Twitter. It was his first pitches stateside and it was Kevin Defranc pitching against Ivar Ket. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: And he was sitting 100. And I remember Jaba: yeah. Bob: someone posting it that his average VLO was 99.9 and his cards went like almost immediately Jheremy: Good roots. Bob: when I saw that tweet. And I was like, I'm gonna be so rich because I have so many Kevin DeFrank autos. And I think he got shut down like I think him and Ivar Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Bob: Ket both got shut down like literally like a week after that that video came out. Yeah. Jheremy: And then you couldn't just you couldn't move fast enough to get out Jaba: And the funny thing with Jheremy: of them. Jaba: DeFranc is you didn't even have to watch him pitching. I saw a video of him in the weight room in February and you're like, This guy is an NFL edge rusher. You're like Jheremy: yeah. The off season. Yep. Bob: Yeah. And they're like ke Kevin DeFrank, age age seventeen, and you're looking at the video, you're like Jaba: Yeah, yeah, yeah. He's also a child. Yeah. Yeah, Jheremy: Well that's like our boy Angel Mantas. Jaba: yeah. Same era. Yeah. Jheremy: God bless him. Jaba: Bob, you heard about this guy, Angel Mantas yet? Bob: Who? Jaba: Angel Mantas? Bob: I don't know him. Jaba: Jeremy tell him. Jheremy: So he's a 15-year-old Dominican, 15 years old. He's got a deal in 2028 with the Blue Jays for like six million already. He was just in the 15U World Cup, like led in every offensive category imaginable. Championship game against the US, they're down two in the six, hits a bomb to dead center field. But he was in our 14U game in jet blue two years ago as a 13 year old. We took him because he simply too dangerous to be in the 13U game with drop five bats. He had to hit two balls out in the Derby at Jet Blue, you know, replica of Fenway. Fenway's Bob: Mm-hmm. Jheremy: not very forgiving for left handed hitters. He's left handed. He put two out in three swings to win the derby. One into the bullpen and one over the bullpen into those bleachers. Like, Bob: Cheese. Jheremy: he will be our chase. He will be somebody who makes me foreclose on my home if he doesn't fully hit like he could, Bob: Yeah. Jheremy: because I'm gonna own a lot of him. So but yeah, he's he's six foot three, two twenty. Like He's just you're really you're really big. So Bob: you you know who was one? Jaba: Yeah, if you look up on Google images you're just like, my God. Bob: I'm gonna have to. You know what's funny? I I remember because just Jheremy: Just go look at Go look at his off the game photo. Bob: Justin Gonzalez, like I said about Justin Gonzalez, I remember the same thing happening with Las Montes. Is that he Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: he came over here and I remember someone posted a BP video of his first like stateside BP and he was listed at like six three two fifteen and I was like on what scale? Like there's that guy hasn't Jheremy: Two fifteen. Yeah. Bob: been six three two fifteen since he was twelve. Jheremy: Right. Two fifteen in the legs. Like, yeah. It's it's wild. I haven't Bob: Yeah. But one one player that and I'm ashamed it it sucks because he still can't get healthy, but I'm holding all the cards. You were talking about how when that guy gets cards, you're gonna have to, you know, mortgage your house. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: A player that I watch live because his his facilities down the street for me and I watched him right after got drafted and I own a lot of his cards and I'm just fingers crossed he ever gets healthy is Charlie Soto. He threw the bullpen Jheremy: Mm-hmm. Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Bob: I watched him throw coming out of high school and they were like, this kid barely he didn't even pitch in high school. Like he barely like and he I think he was like a I think he's like an August 31st birthday like the youngest you can be for the grade. And they were like he barely pitched Jheremy: Super, super young. Bob: until his senior year. Dude that he looked like he was throwing like eighty percent. And he was throwing like mid nineties. I was like, This Jheremy: Yep. Yep. Bob: kid is electric and he gets hurt every year. And my I refuse to Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. I Bob: sell his cards out of principal because one year he's gonna stay healthy. Jheremy: It's gonna come at some point. Look he Jaba: Yeah, I I bought a bunch in February and they're still just sitting in the box that they came in. I'm like, I'm Jheremy: He Jaba: not letting myself touch until he pitches. Jheremy: He came out to one of our showcases in December. It's a big one down in Fort Myers and like we had known about him. He like a ninety ninety one guy and comes out and he's like ninety-six, ninety-seven, and everybody's like, W what what's going on here? Like you you knew about him, but you didn't fully know about him, and he just kind of burst himself and announced himself. Like a week before the draft he was working for us, just doing like the iPad behind doing track man or doing DK. Like he's a really down to earth kid and I I i the stuff is electric, so I hope it all works out for him. Hundred percent. Bob: Yeah, I remember one of the guys saying they're like, he didn't even really start pitching until his senior year. And I'm like, That's unreal. Jaba: Yeah, it's Jheremy: Like I I know we could probably talk for another three hours. I got one more question for you, and it's one that like I've finally started like harnessing in myself, even doing what I do for work, like I still second guess myself all the time. How many times did it either take you to be right or just be like, I don't care if I'm wrong, where you go off the map on a guy like I I was in on I like Trevor Cohen for what he is, super cheap, the stuff's kind of gone up. Sad Bieldelzine, super cheap, stuff's gone up. Like What what was the moment, what made you like trust yourself where it's like, I'm going off the beaten path here, I like this guy, and then like sure enough, you were correct. Bob: Roman Anthony. Roman Anthony. Roman Anthony Jheremy: I guess that was the yeah. Bob: was I Jaba: I'll do it. Bob: don't know that I'll ever have a call as good as Roman Anthony Jheremy: Sure. Bob: because when 2023 Bowman came out, he was batting like 200. He had never hit minor league pitching. He debuted Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: the year that he got drafted in the complex and he hit like 180 something. He comes back in single A again, like 180 something, and he was just one of those players that I was like I don't know. There was something about the He was the first player I ever started looking at, like like swing rates and stuff. It was like very clear that you could tell that he had either been told by someone, or I don't know if it's a personal thing. I don't know if these guys decided to do it on their own, but he was working on pitch selection. And you could tell because you would watch his live A-Bs and he wasn't swinging the bat. I would watch A-Bs and I'm like, but then you look you see the clips from the high school American game. He's hitting balls 450 at fours. And I'm like, Jheremy: Right. Yep. Bob: I know this kid can smash the ball. He had ISO. Under 100, I think, for his first 200 plate appearances as a minor leaguer. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: And I just got this crazy idea in my head. And I was listen, he's a Red Sox prospect, which never hurts. I'm like, I've seen, you know, we haven't seen the power materialize in professional baseball, but we saw it in high school. Like Jheremy: Yep. Bob: he was thought to be power over hit for like a lot of people. Like they liked like good athleticism. Like, and I remember looking at his his stats and just being like, This is horrendous. I think he was like, 20% walk, 20% K. ISO under 100, swinging at 33, 34% of the pitches he saw. The contact rates were good, but he wasn't swinging. Every hit was a single or a walk or a strikeout Jaba: Yeah, he's just standing there. Yeah. Bob: looking. And I remember getting his refractor autos out of 23 Bowman for like 75 bucks. I had Jheremy: She Bob: probably five or six refractor autos, gemmed a couple of them. I had an atomic, I had a gold shimmer. I had I had as much color as I could afford of Roman Anthony. I still Jheremy: Yeah. And Bob: sold too soon. I sold way before Jheremy: Naturally. Bob: you know the Jaba: Yeah. Bob: before he got to his peak. But I remember it's kind of when I started shifting towards because for the longest time I could I was like, you know, I I was convinced that you could scout players almost entirely on on a stat line. You know, you could look at Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: statistics and be like, and had you done that with Roman Anthony, you never would have bought his cards in 23. but I started watching it and I was like, you know, I had convinced myself that, you know, maybe this is a pitch selection thing. Maybe he's, you know, they were worried about the swing and miss, so they have him, you know, picking up spin, whatever it may be. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: And I remember buying all this stuff and just thinking, as a big power hitting, athletic teenage prospect for a team like the Red Sox, like all it would take would be like just a a month, a good month of the season. And I think it it couldn't have been more than A couple months after I bought those cards, he got promoted to high A and he just his Jheremy: One off. Bob: swing rate went from Jaba: Yeah. Bob: 33% to 45%, 46%. He just started being aggressive. There was no more his strikeouts went way up. Like it wasn't Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: the same contact type approach that we saw in Complex League and Single A. But I mean, you talk about I think his ISO went from under a hundred to like over two fifty when he moved from single A to high A. And and that was kind of one where I bought it and I was like, I feel like, you know, I might be on the right side of the I mean, I've been on the wrong side of a lot of those too. But I would say he was the first one where I was like, you know, if you think that that something might happen, you gotta just you gotta go Jaba: Yeah. Bob: for it. I mean, I've been wrong too. I I told everyone this offseason that I thought that from what we had seen, I I likened what I saw with Roman Anthony to what I thought I'm gonna say it, Jaba: Don't say it. Don't say it. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: to what I thought Aiden Smith might be able to do with the raise. Jaba: I thought you were gonna say fluelling. Okay, you're safe. Bob: no. Roman Anthony. Jheremy: No, floaling's still really good. Bob: I thought w when Aiden Smith, the tools that Aiden Smith had, when he went to Tampa Bay and just that like short stint he had after the trade, Jaba: Hey, you cement now. Bob: he is a Met. And that actually saved me from being very wrong about him because he got hot for the Mets and his cards went back up. Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: But Jaba: look look what I got. I got I got this for like three hundred dollars after the t yeah. One of the corners Bob: Is that a red? Dang, that's pretty sick. Jheremy: Hmm. Jaba: is extremely bad. But Bob: But Smith was one where I was like, the small sample we saw after he went from Seattle to Tampa Bay, like everything, like he always had hit tool concerns, but Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: a lot of the stuff looked much better. And I remember convincing myself, man, one offseason with the Rays, they're gonna Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: take this guy who already has just incredible athleticism, incredible tools. They're Jaba: Yeah. Bob: gonna get him working on his pitch selection. He's gonna come back, better hit tool, better contact. just kind of like the things that I thought about Roman Anthony. And I mean, talk about. being way right and then being way wrong. It's just Jheremy: Because we just think you go to Tampa, we sprinkle some fairy powder on you and you become good, like Freddie Peralta shouts out, Java. Right? Bob: Yeah, exactly. In my head, that's what happens to everyone who goes to the race. Jheremy: And and now the Brewers. Like you're either of those two, your your cards are worth a lot of money. And I feel like we've talked about it. We do think the Brewers are starting to get taxed now for like what they've been able to do. Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Like Frontado being as expensive as he was, monies being where he was. Yeah. Bob: The Brewer the Brewers are crazy in that like the Rays, I don't know what it is with their development, but Milwaukee's ability to find like I mean you're talking Jesus Mede, Luis Peña, same class, a million, a million and under signing bonus. Adam Shevsky, Jaba: Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. Yeah. Jaba: Yeah. Bob: like 10th round. The what they do in the under a million bonus pool and like these 10th round and on draft picks, I don't Jheremy: Got down. Yep. Bob: know if they it's almost like they have a crystal ball. It's like they The no one else hits on these picks the way that the brewers do. It's it's incredible. Jheremy: Right. I know like the the area scout Jaba: It's not David Stearns doing it. Jheremy: the area scout for them out in the Midwest, Ginger Paulson, like she's gotten Adam Zuski, she Bishop Letzen really late, she got Ethan Dorchies late, she got Greg Craig Yono hook late, who's now in the big leagues, like they just really capitalize on those smaller school D one commit kids who have a tool or two that they know how to optimize. And like, I mean Letson he he had his ups and downs but finished the year really strong. Adam Zooski's a top one hundred prospect now. Like they've done a really good job Jaba: Yoho's got that changed up. Jheremy: they've done a really good job of capitalizing like on their strengths and then adding to it as well, I think. So yeah. Bob: Yeah, they they've done it's it's it's i it's incredible what they do. I've almost just you can almost just blindly buy Brewers Brewers and Rays prospects, you know. Which Jheremy: Burrers. Like Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Bob: is funny because in 25 Draft, I remember when 25 Draft came out, the the Rays like 80 a case. They were like an under $100 team. And everyone was like, well, Brennan Summerhill and Daniel Pierce aren't in the product. So they're Jheremy: Yeah. Bob: not a good team. They had Cooper Cooper Fleming, they had Jheremy: Yep. Bob: Taton Gray, they had Dean Moss. I remember looking at it and being like, you don't think the Jaba: Yeah. Bob: Rays are gonna hit on one of these guys? You're insane if you think that like none of these guys are gonna be good. You Jaba: Yeah. Bob: know, when in doubt, you see the You what? Jheremy: And like Moss was a chase it release. And like Moss was a chase it release too. Like the other two were Bob: yeah. Jheremy: almost the afterthought of that whole product for them, which is just like you could have flipped it now Bob: when I Jheremy: and Bob: when I did my raise buy sheet, I actually I only know this 'cause I looked the other day. I think I published it in January or February. Titan Gray was twelve dollar base auto. Cooper Fleming was seven. And I was like, Jheremy: That's wild. Bob: damn, take me back. Jaba: Yeah, I I I really think the only reason Gray was so low, because I was chasing him at release. Have you seen like the centering on all of his like blues and golds? Bob: No, are they horrendous? Jaba: It it's the worst I've ever seen for like one individual player. Like the golds, Jheremy: Mm. Bob: I feel like Jaba: like his elbow, like he's in his batting stance, like his elbow is like off the card. Jheremy: good. Bob: Yeah. Jaba: It i it's the worst I've ever seen. I I I genuinely think that that's why his prices stayed low because if you look at tens of his stuff in premium color, it does not abide by any traditional multiple. Like the tens Bob: Really? Jaba: just do crazy numbers and the raw cause like most of the raw is like six or sevens. Like it Bob: I I always just assume that Jheremy: That's wild. Bob: I always assume that no one trusted a prep bat from Iowa. That was my theory. Jheremy: Ex exame. Jaba: I d I do think that that's a large part of it, but I th I think that that is why he's remained at a reasonable price. I I I think it's like I I think early on he was like a sharp play and now it's just like okay, well the bases are cheap because they're all messed up, but if you were able to get good color, like that market Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: is ridiculous. Bob: I should have held some stuff of his. I sold all mine. Jheremy: Yeah same. I had I think I had a true blue and a gold wave maybe? or a refractor and a gold wave, but like you can never say no to a double up either. So Jaba: 'Cause Bob: I wish I wish I I w Jaba: like true true blue raw does two fifty and tens do like twelve hundred. Yeah, it's crazy. Bob: Wow. I wish I wish I had more I wish I had more Cooper Fleming too. Jheremy: I'm trying to Jaba: I agree. Jheremy: actively pick up whenever I just see Like even base autos at thirty bucks, like just buy Bob: He's so hard to find. Jheremy: Just buy at thirty. I and I have to get past the well, I was buying at X, Y, or Z. And it's like, yeah, those are those days are gone. Like, and I'll go back to Sad Bell buying true blues at twenty bucks. Like, you're not getting that anymore. Those days are gone. Bob: No. Jheremy: You that's what you're buying a base auto for now, so it is what it is. Jaba: Yeah. Yeah. Well, Jheremy: Well Jaba: this this has been great. Like Jeremy said, I think we could sit here and do like a twenty four hour live stream and not get bored. But Bob: For real. Jaba: we're we're gonna wrap up here. I know we're definitely we had discussed having Bob back in a semi regular capacity, maybe monthly, I don't know. We'll figure it out. We'll see if he had a good time. we'll see when he gets back from the play date what he tells his parents. But Bob: Yeah. Jheremy: Yeah. Jaba: You know, it's been a blast talking with you, Bob. I think you know, we both really enjoy your content and it's exciting for us to be working with you. But appreciate you appreciate Bob: Yeah, thank guys for having me on. I enjoyed it. Jaba: you coming on and hopefully more more to come in the future. So thanks again Bob: Definitely. Jaba: for chatting with us and thank you everybody for listening and let's go Mets. See you guys.