Latest / Turley Talks / Ep. 4034 5 Blue States Are FLIPPING RED as Republicans Near a HISTORIC Majority!!!

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Ep. 4034 5 Blue States Are FLIPPING RED as Republicans Near a HISTORIC Majority!!! · Turley Talks

• 0:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: The liberal globalist order is on its brink and awakening a new conservative age.
• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Steve Turley, join me every day as we discover answers to today's toughest challenges and explore the re-bondalization of conservative civilization.
• 0:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is Turley Talks.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats are panicking and not just when it comes to the House, they're panicking about the Senate, they're panicking about governorships.
• 0:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're staring down the barrel of a historic loss.
• 0:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're part of you so broke, it's so rudderless and so out of touch that they can't stop Republicans from flipping governorships, Senate seats and House districts in states they've owned for decades.
• 0:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: and it's an absolute nightmare for the Democrats.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: officially four months out from one of the most consequential mid-term elections in American history and the map the full map governor senate the house It's looking like a complete and total disaster for the democrat party in many ways it comes down to a single word
• 1:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democrats' catastrophe comes down to retirements.
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: 11 Democrats' senators are not seeking reelection to cycle 11.
• 1:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: That represents the largest retirement wave in the modern Senate era.
• 1:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here's the thing, it's not who's retiring that matters.
• 1:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's where.
• 1:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Gary Peters in Michigan, even Tina Smith in Minnesota, Jean Shaheen in New Hampshire.
• 2:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: These are not safe, deep blue fortresses, including Minnesota, right?
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: Trump came within four of winning Minnesota.
• 2:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: These are swing states or purple states where in common see was doing all the heavy lifting and now that in common see premium is simply gone.
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: You can contrast this with where Republicans are retiring, Wyoming, Alabama.
• 2:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Kentucky deep red states were Republicans win by 30 points on the bad day.
• 2:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's simply no comparison Democrats are playing defense everywhere.
• 2:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans just need to show up.
• 2:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, let's look at the Senate map.
• 2:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans currently hold a 53 to 45 majority.
• 2:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: And here are the three blue seats most likely to flip red.
• 2:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Michigan is the crown jewel.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republican Mike Rogers has actually a head in several polls and an open seat in the state that Trump won in 2024.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: So, if Democrats nominate Abdul
• 3:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: who's another one of these DSA social or Democrat socialists of America, which it looks like they're about to do as of today.
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Rogers wins comfortably.
• 3:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's get a crush him.
• 3:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Even if they nominate the more moderate Haley Stevens, the race stays competitive.
• 3:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Michigan isn't play four reals.
• 3:20
  [SPEAKER_00]: It actually looks as of now.
• 3:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: It looks like we've got a pickup.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: in Michigan that's been a blue senate seat for over a decade.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: Then there's Georgia with the Republican Mike Collins, ready to go politics was talking about this race.
• 3:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: What makes Georgia's off-year electorate so interesting is they always tilt Republican.
• 3:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: So black turnout historically dips.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: In midterms college educated white voters in Georgia still skew right unlike their Midwestern counterparts and this race could go to a runoff We're Republicans have won three of the last four.
• 3:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that may be another flip with the current incumbent Osolf
• 4:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: being a rather vulnerable Democrat in the state that Trump won just months ago.
• 4:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then there's New Hampshire, John Sinunu running there.
• 4:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Sinunu family named works wonders in this state.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: It has for decades.
• 4:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: The late primary on September 8th is a challenge, but turning point USA is investing heavily in this race.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: New Hampshire's been trending right at the presidential level, and that massive independent block in either.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_00]: It could break either way.
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: So keep your eye on New Hampshire as another pickup.
• 4:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: I see Maine with Susan Collins.
• 4:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: I see that as an easy hold Graham Platner's campaign is falling apart as of the making his video.
• 4:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: He may have he may have even dropped out.
• 4:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: The only real threat to the GOP right now is North Carolina with Mike Wattley consistently running behind their former Democrat governor.
• 4:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: So we'll see what happens there.
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: But we
• 4:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: could be looking at three pickups in the Senate of seats that were reliably blue now for years.
• 5:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Then there's the governor's races.
• 5:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Very important, especially for things like mass deportations and election integrity, the two key pickups states were looking at are Wisconsin and Arizona.
• 5:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: In Wisconsin, if the Democrats nominate the progressive Francesca Hong
• 5:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republican Tom Tiffany wins in a landslide.
• 5:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: I don't think it's even going to be close.
• 5:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Like what the Michigan Senate seat, the Democrats owned primary could simply hand Republicans to the governor ship without Republicans having to do a single thing, just other than showing up.
• 5:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: So keep your eye on that primary in Wisconsin and then of course, there's Arizona Governor Katie Hobbs.
• 5:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: She's one of the most disliked unpopular governors in the country.
• 5:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Andy Biggs.
• 5:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: is a stronger fit for the current Arizona electorate than Kerry Lake was back in 2022.
• 5:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republican primary is more unified.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: The race is going to be very, very competitive.
• 5:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: But if Andy Biggs, if he does this right, I mean, the massive voter registration edge that the Republicans have a mast in Arizona should be more than enough to finally knock out Katie Hobbs.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_00]: So that's currently five blue seats.
• 6:15
  [SPEAKER_00]: three in the Senate two governorships that we could easily see flip red, but of course the big question, right?
• 6:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: The super bowl of question that everyone's asking what about the house, do the Republicans hold the house and perhaps even increase their majority?
• 6:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's what we're about to find out.
• 6:34
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• 8:59
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• 9:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: Alright, so here's the headline that's going to absolutely stun you.
• 9:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: It does look like
• 9:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: The GOP is not only going to hold the house, it looks increasingly likely they're going to actually pick up seats.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: A few, it's stunning stuff.
• 9:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: So again, ready to go Paula, Texas been on top of this.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's projecting Republicans are going to finish at 221.
• 9:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: Up from the two 18, they're sitting at currently today.
• 9:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: Larry Schweikert, the historian.
• 9:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's projecting similar to 222 seats.
• 9:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: All three of the major house projection maps,
• 9:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: political report inside elections, all three have the Republicans leading the Democrats going into November.
• 9:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: Now, keep in mind, this is happening in a mid-term year when the incumbent party historically loses seats and average of 40 seats.
• 9:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, this is absolutely unbelievable.
• 9:54
  [SPEAKER_00]: We haven't seen anything like this for the party in power that always loses seats by double digits.
• 10:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: to be winning, to be going into the midterms ahead.
• 10:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, we've only seen three exceptions to that rule as it were, 1934, 1998, 2002.
• 10:11
  [SPEAKER_00]: And increasingly, looks like 2026 is going to be the fourth midterm exception.
• 10:18
  [SPEAKER_00]: Here's the structural reason as to why.
• 10:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: Democrats we need to win the national popular vote by round seven points to guarantee flipping the house to get the few seats that they need given how redistricting as drawn the current map they would need around seven.
• 10:34
  [SPEAKER_00]: The current polling average has Democrats up by three to maybe five points.
• 10:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: That's it.
• 10:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: So the mass simply doesn't work out for them.
• 10:46
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm period.
• 10:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: On offense, Republicans are targeting Texas 28.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: There's apparently an internal Republican poll showing their candidate ahead by 20 points.
• 10:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: The Democratic incumbent Henry Quellar, he's raised almost no money.
• 11:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's very unpopular in the Democratic Party.
• 11:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: So this is a very realistic pickup.
• 11:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: Ohio 9, Marcy captures district.
• 11:09
  [SPEAKER_00]: They've shifted dramatically right where Derek Marin could flip the seat, Florida 25, Republicans have obviously they've added 500,600,000 new voter registration Florida since 2024.
• 11:22
  [SPEAKER_00]: They're just, the district is just trending red along with the state as a whole, so it's a negligibly going Republican.
• 11:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: And then, defensively, Republicans are holding seats that Democrats are drooling over, Mike Lawler in New York 17.
• 11:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: It's a blue-collar district.
• 11:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: Blue district, I should say, Republican wins there because of who he is, not just the party label.
• 11:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: Just people in New York 17 really like Mike Lawler.
• 11:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Um, then you've got David Valadeo in California, 22, he's better funded than his far left challenger, a Rob, uh, Breznahan and Pennsylvania 10, and that's a Trump plus nine district union.
• 12:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: He's got a union endorsements, strong ground game.
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: So it most certainly does look as if the Republicans are going to hold the house again, anything could change.
• 12:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Right.
• 12:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: I will always be honest with you if we start to see things moving in the different direction, but when you add the redistricting advantage, together with the factors of money and momentum, I mean the case for a GOP hold or expansion only gets stronger.
• 12:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: We talked about this in our first video today, the Republican National Committee, has in your 701 cash advantage over their debt-ridden counterpart, D.N.C.
• 12:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: The RNC entered the spring with $109 million cash on hand.
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_00]: The D.N.C had just $15 million, but they were already $17 million in outstanding debt.
• 12:51
  [SPEAKER_00]: So when they add the four public and ecosystem, the RNC, the NRCC, the NRSC, the Congressional
• 13:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Republicans have upwards of a billion dollars ready to deploy for these midterms.
• 13:07
  [SPEAKER_00]: And Trump is absolutely, for his part, he is absolutely nationalizing the elections like Gingrich did back in 1994 by having, of course, our first conventions, a first midterms conventions.
• 13:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: and he's calling out the communists that the Democrats are nominating with the Democrats' socialists of America winning all of their primaries.
• 13:30
  [SPEAKER_00]: And in doing so, he is nationalizing this midterms.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: And last time we did that, we crushed it.
• 13:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: So let's bring this all together because
• 13:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: What we're watching right now in real time is not just a good mid-term cycle for Republicans.
• 13:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: It is a potential political realignment of historical proportions.
• 13:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Governors, right, Republicans projected to hold 27 to 22.
• 13:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: Senate, the Republicans are realistically expanding to 56 or possibly even 57 seats.
• 14:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: And the House Republicans are projected to gain seats around 221 or 222 fundraising.
• 14:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: I mean, Republicans are with a billion dollar war chest versus a DNC drowning in debt and the momentum in that Trump is nationalizing the elections.
• 14:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: As America first versus America last, I mean, the data, the real data, not the legacy media narrative, says the Democrat party is staring down a generation of defeat in the governor's mansions in the Senate chamber and on the House floor, all at the same time on November 3rd.
• 14:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So what do you guys think?
• 14:38
  [SPEAKER_00]: You're the ones who're going to be going out.
• 14:39
  [SPEAKER_00]: You're the ones who change the world.
• 14:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: I want to know, put your comments down below.
• 14:43
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• 14:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: You're not going to get anywhere else.
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: Love you guys.
• 14:49
  [SPEAKER_00]: God bless.
• 14:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: Thanks so much for listening this episode of the Trolley Talks podcast.
• 14:55
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• 15:08
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