Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Jerome Powell FINAL Fed Meeting!🎉

Transcript

Jerome Powell FINAL Fed Meeting!🎉 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: It is FOMC meeting day today.
• 0:01
  Speaker 2: There is no rate cut.
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: We'll be breaking it down for you guys and get
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: into all of what is happening over at the FED.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: And guess what, it's Pal's last FOMC meeting, so you
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: guys don't want to miss it. I do want to
• 0:13
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• 0:40
  Speaker 2: Use our link down below. Get started. All right, let's
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: lead off with this right here.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: As I said, we're going to be doing a full
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: live stream today. The way that if you if this
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: is your first FOMC meeting, in your first live stream
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: with us, first of all, make sure and hit the
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: like button right now make a comment, because that helps
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: generate a little bit more algorithm for the live stream.
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: But the key thing here is that when Powell addresses
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: the press, he will address the forward looking statements that
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: give us a little bit of an indication of where
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: he's heading, because we already know what's happened today.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Now we want to see.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: What is next for the FED rate cuts and or
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: a potential rate hight going forward. So let's take a
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: look at this right here. Powell could stay at the
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: FED even after his chair is over. This is his
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: last one. Kevin Walsh has been confirmed. It is official
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: today as we're literally recording that confirmation is underway. The
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: DOJ just dropped its criminal probe into the FED. That
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: was one of the key things that had to occur
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: and I think to get worshed through, and that did occur.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about that in a second. And then, of
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: course we've got Powell's term as chair ends May fifteenth,
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: just around the corner, but his board seat runs until
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty eight.
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: So what do you guys think.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Do you think he's going to stick around let me
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: know in the comments down below, or do you think
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: he's just going to say, man, I've had it, I'm
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: out of here. This was a nice ride and moving along. Well,
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: we'll find out, because it's going to probably come up
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: very soon after because literally it's next week when his
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: actual board or his chair membership stops, and of course
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: he will move into just being a FED governor. Let's
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: go over to a clip here because this will bring
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: in a little bit of narrative around is the FED
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: and its transparency in play? And this is a unique
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: clip because it kind of talks about how Powell did
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: something that was very different.
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: Take a look after the press conference today. That will
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: be the sixty fifth press conference that Jay pow has had,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: and so he's revolutionized the way FED share chairs communicate
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: with the public. Historically, Fed shares did not talk after
• 2:47
  Speaker 3: FOMC meetings, and so you had to guess a little
• 2:50
  Speaker 3: bit about what the FED was doing. Jay Pale has
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: brought transparency to the FED, and I think that's a
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: good thing. He's obviously had to struggle with the President
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: of the United States criticizing him for many years, but
• 3:02
  Speaker 3: he's overcome that.
• 3:03
  Speaker 4: In my view.
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: During Jaypal's turn tenure as fed Share, he's had fifteen
• 3:09
  Speaker 3: rate increases and twelve rate decreases, so more or less
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: about even but what he had to deal with was
• 3:16
  Speaker 3: one of the hardest problems any FED shairs ever had
• 3:19
  Speaker 3: when he came FED share.
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: Not long thereafter, we went.
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: Into COVID, and as a result, the Trump administration and
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: the Biden administration injected about five trillion dollars into the
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: economy with no corresponding tax increases. That obviously produced inflation
• 3:34
  Speaker 3: which went as high as nine percent. Jay Powell had
• 3:37
  Speaker 3: to engineer a situation where we did not go into
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: a recession, So I think he deserves credit for engineering that.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: All right, so some interesting things there. First, I didn't
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: even realize that he was the guy that started the
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: FOMC meetings.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Sometimes I wonder if.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: Those are a bit of a curse, though, because you
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: look at what happens after the FED meeting goes in
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: front of the press, and you get speculation of all sorts,
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: including our own, about what's going to happen next. That
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: creates market turmoil in most cases, and it creates a
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: lot of fluff around the entire.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: Issue of FED raycotts.
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe the previous FED chairs were right in kind of
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: hiding from the camera to kind of slow down the
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: market reactions.
• 4:22
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: I'm kind of mixed on whether or not this was
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: a good thing or a bad thing. I'm glad they're
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: doing it. I like transparency more than I like closed doors.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: But I just wonder what kind of market impact would
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: have been the case if he had not been doing
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: those And I wonder if Kevin Walsh will continue these.
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming he will, but could he completely blindsided us
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: and just kind of remembered that the BIS was starting
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: to close down data from the public. Could we see
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: this coming from the new FED? We'll see in a
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: few weeks now. Zach Pandel hit on this right here,
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: which is domino number two And if you guys didn't know,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: this is the layer of the dominoes the he predicted here,
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: simple but true. Trump takes the off ramp for the
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: FED investigation, meaning pals out of the clear or in
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: the clear. That of course clears the way for the
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: confirmation that occurred today. And now here we go with
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: the Banking Committee, who is going to be moving ahead
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: on clarity markup. And I think that is the next
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: major move here for everyone is that the Senate is
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: now no longer tied up with this, so they have
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: a chance to get in front of Clarity. With all
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: of the issues that are happening around Clarity right now,
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: this is a much needed and especially with the timing
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: because remember timing is very key as we go into
• 5:41
  Speaker 1: the summer break just here in a few months. If
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: it just doesn't get done, that could mean some bad
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: things for crypto guys. I'm just looking this overall. Speaking
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: of one of the guys who is in front of this,
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: We've got Senator Tom Tellis Warrens he will vote against
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: the Senate Crypto Bill unless it includes ethics language restricting
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: officials use of digital assets. Now, this is interesting because
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: we don't have those such restrictions for trading for government officials.
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: This is interesting that we're applying it to me. This
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: applies simply because of the Trump family what has been
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: implemented over the last few months years. Had they not
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: done this, you know, prior to Clarity, you know, who knows.
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: What would have happened. They maybe could have just continued on.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: But because it was done prior to Clarity, I think
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: this becomes the one red line in the sand that
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: could cause this Clarity Act to become an issue. And listen,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: there's not a lot of people talking about this right now.
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, we've had several guests on that we've asked
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: the question do you think this Even Warren Davidson was
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: on with me a few weeks back and I asked
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: him point blank, is this a problem? And he said yes,
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: But the industry has not complied with saying yeah, this
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: is a problem, and we need to get the Trumps
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: kind of play and get on board here. But inflation
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: is the big one right now, and energy is going
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: to be one of the core things. As oil prices
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: extend to one oh five a barrel, Trump of course
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: is prepared to extend the US blockade, which of course
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: is the blockade on the blockade of the.
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: Straight of Horn moves.
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: And this is a concern that we continue to see
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: these whipsaw numbers, as you guys have.
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: Heard me talk about before.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: We've seen it all the way back down to eighty
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: five dollars a barrel.
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: Grand prior to what.
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: We were dealing with with the situation in Iran is
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: around seventy five bucks a barrel.
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: That's kind of the sweet spot of the oil.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Industry of not necessarily high gas prices, but the oil
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: industry is still making money but once you get into
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: these kind of situations, and remember this is a market
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: that even our US oil companies are making money hand
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: over fist on. And the reason is because as the
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: market goes up, which is a global market, the value
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: of this oil is it could be whether it's your
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: or its asia drives that market price up, which of
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: course the oil companies, just like any other business, will
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: create that demand to meet that market price. That of
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: course creates the issue that we're dealing with here, which
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: is higher gas prices. Warsh is coming into a buzzsaw
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: and I think this is an issue that he is
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: going to have to face pretty quickly. Now, one thing
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: that could start to move the markets after this, and
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: there's been speculation that after a FED chair comes in,
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: market's dump, especially on bitcoin, but the market is talking
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: a different stick. Here is Tom Lee breaking down a
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: portfolio to just relax on take a look.
• 8:40
  Speaker 5: Well, I think the market at the start of this
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: year maybe had three risks it had to get comfortable with.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: One is Iran, a second was private credit, and the
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: third is a new FED share. And what we've seen,
• 8:56
  Speaker 5: I think is that we we've come out the other
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: side of this Iran war, with the economy showing remarkable strength.
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: In fact, earning testments have been going up, so I
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: think we passed that test. And so to me this
• 9:08
  Speaker 5: means I think for stocks for the year, the upside
• 9:11
  Speaker 5: case is strengthening. I think SMP above seventy seven hundred
• 9:14
  Speaker 5: is very probable.
• 9:15
  Speaker 6: A better portfolio positioning right now would be what he
• 9:18
  Speaker 6: calls the sleep like a baby portfolio. It's an equal
• 9:22
  Speaker 6: weight allocation across stocks, bonds, cash, and commodities. According to Hartin,
• 9:28
  Speaker 6: at this four way split is having its best year
• 9:30
  Speaker 6: since nineteen thirty three and delivering one of its largest
• 9:33
  Speaker 6: relative wins ever versus the traditional sixty forty.
• 9:37
  Speaker 5: I mean there's a lot of logic to that, because one,
• 9:39
  Speaker 5: we know that gold's been a really good total return performer,
• 9:42
  Speaker 5: and so I think gold should sit in portfolios which
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: probably sits in commodities along with crypto. And then I
• 9:49
  Speaker 5: did hear someone earlier this year point out Nasdaq and
• 9:52
  Speaker 5: oil are actually good counter hedges, So in some ways
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: a twenty five that portfolio does make a lot of sense.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: This is all separating the sixty forty portfolios that have
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: been of you know, kind of the favorite of the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: past this, moving to twenty five twenty five, twenty five twenty.
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: Five, Are you guys doing that right now?
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Is is that a portfolio alignment that works with you?
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Are you all in on commodities crypto or are you
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: looking at gold which really falls in commodities as well?
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: Are you in securities, you know, stocks and bonds?
• 10:24
  Speaker 2: Are you there?
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Let me know in the comments, because I'm always curious
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: as to how the current audience is breaking this down
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: because we've seen you know, the crypto all in, you
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: know customer or I shouldn't say customer, but the audience
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: that has been really here on the channel for a
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: long time. But now we're starting to see a little
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: bit more of a much more diversified investor coming in.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: So maybe it is a change in the markets. For sure,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Let's continue to take a look at what is happening
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: in Iran. Here is a breakdown from Muhammad A La Rain,
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: who is from CNBC US. Israeli war against Iran threatens
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: to disrupt global deal making as golf investors have now
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: bankroll transactions worth billions of dollars, reassesses their spending priorities.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So simply put, you've got all these GCC nations including
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc. Katar to a certain extent, that
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: have a large amount of their investment portfolios built into
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: mostly tech, biotech, and even finance to a certain extent
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: here in the US, if the GCC continues to see
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: the decline not only in the oil sector because the
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: amount of loss in oil revenue that's happening to the
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: GCC right now, that could have a lingering effect on
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: traditional markets here in the US because of the investment
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: that's going into that. Let me kind of zoom out
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: on this and I'll show you just an example. Golf
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: nations account for nearly half of all sovereign investments globally
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty five. So that's how one hundred and
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: twenty six billion deployed across sectors from AI entertainment, financial
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: service as I was referring to there.
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: And I think that's the point here.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Will they pull the plug and simply say today is
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: not the day we're going to be investing in the
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: United States.
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: It's going to be a big thing to watch. We're
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: going to be.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Heading into Chair Pal's speech and his address to the
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: press here momentarily we will go live. As I said,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: the way it works, just to kind of give everybody
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: a heads up on this is it's very simple. We'll
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: stream it live normally. We will stream the whole thing,
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: or as much as we can that we think is relevant.
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: We may cut out of it and I'll just give
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: you guys some final comments.
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: But that's how it works. Of course, you guys.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Can continue to comment and all that as we go
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: into the live. Let's cut to Chair Powers.
• 12:52
  Speaker 4: Good afternoon, my colleagues, and I remain squarely focused on
• 12:57
  Speaker 4: achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment, stable prices
• 13:00
  Speaker 4: for the benefits benefit of the American people. The US
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: economy has been expanding at a solid pace. While job
• 13:07
  Speaker 4: gains have remained low. The unemployment rate has been little
• 13:10
  Speaker 4: changed in recent months. Inflation has moved up and is elevated,
• 13:14
  Speaker 4: in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. Today,
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: the FOMC decided to leave our policy rate unchanged. We
• 13:24
  Speaker 4: see the current stance of monetary policy as appropriate to
• 13:27
  Speaker 4: promote progress toward our maximum employment and two percent inflation goals.
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: Developments in the Middle East are contributing to a high
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: level of uncertainty about the economic outlook, and we will
• 13:39
  Speaker 4: remain attentive to risks to both sides of our dual mandate.
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: I'll have more to say about monetary policy after briefly
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: reviewing economic developments. Recent indicators suggests that economic activity has
• 13:52
  Speaker 4: been expanding at a solid pace. Consumer spending has been resilient,
• 13:57
  Speaker 4: and business fixed investment has continued to expand at a
• 14:00
  Speaker 4: brisk pace. In contrast, activity in the housing sector has
• 14:04
  Speaker 4: remained weak. In the labor market, the unemployment rate was
• 14:08
  Speaker 4: four point three percent in March and has changed little
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: in recent months. Job gains have remained low. A good
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: part of the slowing in the pace of the job
• 14:18
  Speaker 4: growth over the past year reflects a decline in the
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: growth of the labor force due to lower immigration and
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well.
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: Other indicators including job openings, layoffs, hiring, and nominal wage
• 14:33
  Speaker 4: growth generally show little change in recent months. Inflation has
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: moved up recently and is elevated relative to our two
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: percent longer run goal. Estimates based on the Consumer Price
• 14:47
  Speaker 4: Index and other data indicate that total PCEE prices rose
• 14:50
  Speaker 4: three point five percent over the twelve months ending in March,
• 14:54
  Speaker 4: boosted by the significant rise in global oil prices that
• 14:57
  Speaker 4: has resulted from the conflict in the Middle East. Excluding
• 15:02
  Speaker 4: the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose
• 15:05
  Speaker 4: three point two percent over the twelve months ending in March.
• 15:09
  Speaker 4: This relatively high rate largely reflects the effects of tariffs
• 15:12
  Speaker 4: on prices in the goods sector. Near term measures of
• 15:16
  Speaker 4: inflation expectations have risen this year, likely because of the
• 15:20
  Speaker 4: substantial rise in oil prices. Most measures of longer term
• 15:24
  Speaker 4: expectations remain consistent with our two percent inflation goal. Our
• 15:29
  Speaker 4: monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to
• 15:32
  Speaker 4: promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
• 15:37
  Speaker 4: At today's meeting, the Committee decided to maintain the target
• 15:39
  Speaker 4: range for the federal funds rate at three and a
• 15:41
  Speaker 4: half to three and three quarters percent. The economic outlook
• 15:45
  Speaker 4: remains highly uncertain, and the conflict in the Middle East
• 15:48
  Speaker 4: has added to this uncertainty. In the near term, higher
• 15:52
  Speaker 4: energy prices will push up overall inflation. Beyond that, the
• 15:57
  Speaker 4: scope and duration of potential effects on the economy remain unclear,
• 16:01
  Speaker 4: as does the future course of the conflict itself. We
• 16:04
  Speaker 4: will continue to monitor the risks to both sides of
• 16:07
  Speaker 4: our dual mandate. We are well positioned to determine the
• 16:10
  Speaker 4: extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate
• 16:13
  Speaker 4: based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the
• 16:16
  Speaker 4: balance of risks. Minetary policy is not on a preset course,
• 16:21
  Speaker 4: and we will make our decisions on a meeting by
• 16:23
  Speaker 4: meeting basis. This is my last press conference as chair,
• 16:29
  Speaker 4: and I will close with a few thoughts. First, I
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: want to congratulate Kevin Walsh on his advancement out of
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: the Senate Banking Committee this morning. This is an important
• 16:38
  Speaker 4: step forward and I wish him well as that process continues.
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: The Federal Reserve exists for one fundamental purpose, to foster
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: the economic conditions in which American families and businesses can thrive.
• 16:52
  Speaker 4: Stable prices, a strong job market, and a financial system
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: they can depend on. Every decision we make, whether or
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: buck interest rates, or regulatory and supervisory matters, or other issues,
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: is made in service of that purpose. Our decisions reflect
• 17:08
  Speaker 4: the collective judgment of the Board of Governors and the
• 17:10
  Speaker 4: Federal Open Market Committee. Colleagues who demonstrate analytical rigor principal
• 17:14
  Speaker 4: judgment and a genuine commitment to the public interest. Our
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: collaborative and deliberative process has long reflected a shared commitment
• 17:22
  Speaker 4: to finding common ground in service to our mission. This
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: institution is resilient, capable, and staffed by professionals of extraordinary
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: talent and exceptional dedication. It has been a privilege to
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: serve alongside so many great public servants at the Board
• 17:39
  Speaker 4: of Governors and around the Federal Reserve system. The Fed's
• 17:44
  Speaker 4: work is only as effective as the public's understanding of it,
• 17:46
  Speaker 4: and you, the press, are essential to keeping the public
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: informed about what we do and why the people we
• 17:53
  Speaker 4: serve benefit from your careful reporting. I welcomed the announcement
• 17:59
  Speaker 4: last by the US Attorney for the District of Columbia
• 18:02
  Speaker 4: that she had closed the criminal investigation. She also noted, however,
• 18:06
  Speaker 4: that she would not hesitate to restart the investigation. Over
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: the weekend, the Department of Justice provided assurances that they
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: will not reopen the investigation unless there's a criminal referral
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: from the Fed's Inspector General, and absence such a referral,
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: if they do appeal the recent court decision, they would
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: not seek as part of that appeal to restart the
• 18:27
  Speaker 4: investigation or send new Subpoenas I've said that, I will
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: not leave the Board until this investigation is well and
• 18:36
  Speaker 4: truly over with transparency and finality, and I stand by that.
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: I'm encouraged by recent developments, and I'm watching the remaining
• 18:44
  Speaker 4: steps in this process carefully. My decisions on these matters
• 18:49
  Speaker 4: will continue to be guided entirely by what I believe
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: is in the best interest of the institution and the
• 18:53
  Speaker 4: people we serve. After my term as Chair ends on
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: May fifteen, I will continue to serve as a governor
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: for a period of time to be determined. I plan
• 19:04
  Speaker 4: to keep a low profile as a governor. There's only
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: ever one chair of the Federal Reserve Board. When Kevin
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: Worsh is confirmed and sworn in, he will be that chair.
• 19:14
  Speaker 4: Once sworn in as Board chair, his new colleagues will
• 19:16
  Speaker 4: elect him to chair the FOMC. As well. As I
• 19:21
  Speaker 4: regularly point out from this podium, our success in delivering
• 19:24
  Speaker 4: our goals matters for all Americans. I'm confident that the
• 19:29
  Speaker 4: FED will continue to do its work with objectivity, integrity,
• 19:32
  Speaker 4: and a deep commitment to serve the American people. Thank you,
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: and I look forward to your questions Thank you, miss chair.
• 19:45
  Speaker 7: Appreciate the con worries about the press often doesn't come
• 19:48
  Speaker 7: from the podium in different places, but appreciate that. Can
• 19:51
  Speaker 7: you talk about what has gone into your decision to
• 19:54
  Speaker 7: remain on the board, what kind of criteria are you weighing,
• 19:57
  Speaker 7: and how long might you stay?
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: Thank you.
• 20:00
  Speaker 4: So, my concern is really about the series of legal
• 20:04
  Speaker 4: attacks on the FED, which threatn our ability to conduct
• 20:07
  Speaker 4: monetary policy without considering political factors. And I want to
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: note here this has nothing whatever to do with verbal
• 20:14
  Speaker 4: criticism by elected officials. I've never suggested that such verbal
• 20:19
  Speaker 4: criticism is a problem, and neither has anyone else here.
• 20:22
  Speaker 4: But these legal actions by the administration are unprecedented in
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: our one hundred and thirteen year history, and there are
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: ongoing threats of additional such actions. I worry that these
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: attacks are battering the institution and putting at risk the
• 20:35
  Speaker 4: thing that really matters to the public, which is the
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: ability to conduct monetary policy without taking into consideration political factors.
• 20:43
  Speaker 4: It is so important for our economy, for the people
• 20:45
  Speaker 4: that we serve that they can depend over time on
• 20:48
  Speaker 4: a central bank that operates that way free of political influence.
• 20:52
  Speaker 4: It's part of the absolute foundation of this amazing economy
• 20:56
  Speaker 4: that we have. It's just one of the many reasons
• 20:58
  Speaker 4: why the US economy is the end envy of the world.
• 21:01
  Speaker 4: That piece of institutional architecture separates successful countries from unsuccessful countries.
• 21:07
  Speaker 4: It is extremely important not for the people who work
• 21:09
  Speaker 4: at the FED at any given time, but for the
• 21:12
  Speaker 4: people that we serve that the FED remain able to
• 21:14
  Speaker 4: conduct monetary policy in a way that doesn't get pulled
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: into politics trying to help or hurt any particular politician
• 21:20
  Speaker 4: or political party. It's critical for the people that we serve.
• 21:24
  Speaker 4: In terms of when I would leave, I will leave
• 21:26
  Speaker 4: when I think it is appropriate to do so.
• 21:29
  Speaker 8: Was that all your questions was, well, I just have
• 21:31
  Speaker 8: a follow up, which is, what would you say to
• 21:32
  Speaker 8: the criticism that by remaining on the board, you're actually
• 21:35
  Speaker 8: taking a political act and denying President Trump the majority
• 21:40
  Speaker 8: of the board, which as president he would have if
• 21:42
  Speaker 8: you left.
• 21:43
  Speaker 4: I don't see that at all. And as I mentioned,
• 21:46
  Speaker 4: you know, I'm literally staying because of the actions that
• 21:48
  Speaker 4: have been taken. I had long planned to be retiring,
• 21:52
  Speaker 4: and you know, the things that have happened, and really
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: in the last three months of I think left me
• 21:57
  Speaker 4: no choice but to stay ntil I see them through
• 22:00
  Speaker 4: at least that long. You know. In addition, I don't
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: see how this will interfere. My attention is not to interfere.
• 22:08
  Speaker 4: You know. I was a governor for almost six years,
• 22:11
  Speaker 4: and the tradition is at the FED that governors who
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: understand how difficult a role of chair is, and as
• 22:18
  Speaker 4: a soon to be former chair, I do understand how
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: hard it is to get consensus with nineteen strong minded people.
• 22:24
  Speaker 4: You work with the chair, You try to be heard,
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: but also collaborate with the chair, and try to support
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: the chair when you can. When you can't, you can't.
• 22:36
  Speaker 4: And I think that's the attitude that people generally take,
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: and that's the attitude that I'll take.
• 22:42
  Speaker 9: Nick chure Pal, if I could ask about the inflation outlook.
• 22:50
  Speaker 9: In March, you described the standard practice of looking through
• 22:54
  Speaker 9: energy shocks as conditional on inflation expectations staying anchored. Since
• 23:00
  Speaker 9: that meeting, there has been very little progress reopening key
• 23:04
  Speaker 9: energy trade corridors. Can you help us understand how the
• 23:08
  Speaker 9: inflation outlook has changed in the intermitting period, Beginning with
• 23:11
  Speaker 9: the prospects for tariff pass through resolving on the timeline
• 23:14
  Speaker 9: that you had outlined in March before getting to the
• 23:17
  Speaker 9: energy shock that is now on top.
• 23:20
  Speaker 4: So you know, I would look at it this way.
• 23:25
  Speaker 4: For a long time, we've been working on the hypothesis
• 23:30
  Speaker 4: really that tariff tariffs would lead to a one time
• 23:34
  Speaker 4: price increase and that that would go away over time,
• 23:37
  Speaker 4: in other words, that there would be no further change,
• 23:38
  Speaker 4: so measured inflation wouldn't reflect that higher level going up
• 23:42
  Speaker 4: more and more, and it's time for that to happen.
• 23:45
  Speaker 4: You know, we really do expect that to be happening
• 23:48
  Speaker 4: in the next two quarters, so we'll be watching very
• 23:50
  Speaker 4: carefully to see that what we've thought all along would happen.
• 23:53
  Speaker 4: That's the kind of critical part of the forecast. We
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: need to really see that. With energy, it's so hard
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: to say. I mentioned, you know, in you know, sort
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: of the textbook, you would look through it an oil
• 24:06
  Speaker 4: shock because they tend to be short lived and they
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: tend to revert, and Monterrey policy works with long and
• 24:11
  Speaker 4: variable lags, so you know, you wouldn't necessarily react right away.
• 24:15
  Speaker 4: I think that is all the more true given that
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: we're several years above two percent inflation and that we're
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: already looking through the tariff shock. So I think we're
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: going to be very cautious about that. It's but the
• 24:27
  Speaker 4: question about about looking through energy really is not in
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: front of us right now. It hasn't even peaked yet,
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: and I think we'd want to see the backside of
• 24:34
  Speaker 4: that and progress on tariffs before we even thought about
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: reducing rates.
• 24:40
  Speaker 9: So, if I could follow up, the statement today preserves
• 24:43
  Speaker 9: language that has taken on some meaning as it was
• 24:47
  Speaker 9: socialized when the Committee was actively lowering rates. Why is
• 24:50
  Speaker 9: that easing bias still ripe given how different the inflation
• 24:56
  Speaker 9: outlook is now versus a meeting or two ago, And
• 25:00
  Speaker 9: what more would have to happen for it to get evicted?
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: So that was, as you will recall, we had a
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: discussion about that at the last meeting, and we talked
• 25:10
  Speaker 4: about it in the press conference after the March meeting.
• 25:13
  Speaker 4: We had the same today. We had quite a vigorous
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: discussion about that, that very issue and the guidance and
• 25:17
  Speaker 4: is it's still appropriate and that kind of thing. And
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: I would say that the number of people in the
• 25:22
  Speaker 4: committee who either could support that language change changing to
• 25:27
  Speaker 4: a more neutral stance so that the hike is as
• 25:30
  Speaker 4: likely as a cut. That number has increased over the
• 25:33
  Speaker 4: inter meeting period, and it's easy to see why. I mean,
• 25:36
  Speaker 4: it's a good question, right. You see, inflation has moved
• 25:40
  Speaker 4: up over the interim a bit. Core inflation is three
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: point two now, moving albeit just a little bit in
• 25:46
  Speaker 4: the wrong direction. And we know that there will be
• 25:49
  Speaker 4: you know that there's headline inflation coming out of the Gulf,
• 25:53
  Speaker 4: and we don't know how much that will be. We
• 25:56
  Speaker 4: just we're going to need to see. So it makes
• 25:58
  Speaker 4: all the sense in the world that people would look
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: at that and we'd have a vigorous discussion about that.
• 26:02
  Speaker 4: You saw the three people descented over the language. I
• 26:05
  Speaker 4: think all of those people agreed with the with the
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: right decision. So the majority of the committee did not
• 26:12
  Speaker 4: want to do that, and I was I didn't think
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: we needed to do it at this meeting. It really
• 26:17
  Speaker 4: was just a question of what's why do we need
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: to do that now? You know, we have so much
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: to learn, there's so much uncertainty about the path ahead.
• 26:24
  Speaker 4: There doesn't need to be any rush to make that
• 26:26
  Speaker 4: decision now because you know what happens in the next
• 26:29
  Speaker 4: thirty sixty days. Even by the next meeting could really
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: change the picture around that, around that language. So you know,
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: it was a it was a a close it's a
• 26:39
  Speaker 4: much closer thing on the committee than it was in March.
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: And you know that makes all the sense in the world,
• 26:43
  Speaker 4: seems to me.
• 26:46
  Speaker 10: Clear.
• 26:48
  Speaker 11: So Claire Jones Financial Times, just going back to this issue,
• 26:54
  Speaker 11: the easing bias, We've now got oil approaching ondred and
• 26:59
  Speaker 11: twenty dollars a barrow when it comes to the benchmark.
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: Brand crude.
• 27:05
  Speaker 11: If it stays around those levels six weeks from now,
• 27:08
  Speaker 11: what would be your guest best guess as to whether
• 27:10
  Speaker 11: the using bias will still be in the statement?
• 27:13
  Speaker 4: Thank you, I wouldn't want to guess. You know, well,
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: first of all, we're going to have new leadership in
• 27:18
  Speaker 4: all likelihood by then, and new leadership is going to
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: have a very important role to play in that. So
• 27:23
  Speaker 4: I won't be standing here this podium to answer your question.
• 27:26
  Speaker 4: So I don't know. As I mentioned, That's all I
• 27:30
  Speaker 4: can really say is that we had we had a
• 27:31
  Speaker 4: great discussion about that. Today it's a you know, it's
• 27:34
  Speaker 4: got it's gotten to be a better question than the
• 27:35
  Speaker 4: interim period we had the discussion. The majority are still
• 27:39
  Speaker 4: on the page of not feeling the need to move
• 27:42
  Speaker 4: to that level. And that's where I am. I get
• 27:45
  Speaker 4: it though you know at a certain point you would move,
• 27:48
  Speaker 4: and that that conceivably could come as soon as the
• 27:50
  Speaker 4: next meeting.
• 27:51
  Speaker 11: Thank you. Just to follow up, the new leadership also
• 27:55
  Speaker 11: seem rather lukewarm on press conferences and on the dot plots.
• 27:59
  Speaker 11: What would your advice to him be on these communication tools?
• 28:03
  Speaker 4: So I'm not going to give him any advice through
• 28:06
  Speaker 4: you today here, But you know, I think communications generally
• 28:10
  Speaker 4: is I think every incoming chair takes a look at
• 28:13
  Speaker 4: communications and it's a very healthy thing. I mean, communications
• 28:17
  Speaker 4: is it's very complex and uh, you know you can
• 28:20
  Speaker 4: always be be looking at new things and if that happens,
• 28:24
  Speaker 4: it feels like it's going to happen, that's completely appropriate thing.
• 28:31
  Speaker 12: Sure, Chair Powel dealing with actios, can you tell us
• 28:35
  Speaker 12: if you've been in touch with with incoming chairman worsh
• 28:38
  Speaker 12: any Uh to what extent is this a normal transition
• 28:41
  Speaker 12: process versus all the things swirling around something unusual? And
• 28:45
  Speaker 12: and what can we expect when when he takes takes
• 28:48
  Speaker 12: that put him in.
• 28:48
  Speaker 4: A few weeks. I haven't seen him since seeing him
• 28:51
  Speaker 4: at a dinner in January where I congratulated him and
• 28:54
  Speaker 4: had a nice, nice chat with him. I haven't seen him.
• 28:56
  Speaker 4: I don't know what a normal process is. You know
• 28:58
  Speaker 4: that the last process was with Jennet Yellen, with whom
• 29:01
  Speaker 4: I had worked for six years, and so it was,
• 29:04
  Speaker 4: you know, we were sitting down the hall from each other.
• 29:05
  Speaker 4: So it's a very different thing. I think this is
• 29:08
  Speaker 4: and will be a very normal standard kind of a
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: kind of a transition process. So that's what I expect.
• 29:13
  Speaker 4: I have every reason to think it will be quick. Fallup.
• 29:15
  Speaker 12: Is the Supreme Court ruling on Governor Cook a factor
• 29:17
  Speaker 12: and when you may leave as a governor.
• 29:20
  Speaker 4: I wasn't thinking of it as such, but no, not really.
• 29:23
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm thinking more of the other things I mentioned.
• 29:28
  Speaker 13: Great, Hi, thanks for taking our question. I wanted to
• 29:34
  Speaker 13: ask a question about your tenure and Chris Rugabert Associated Press.
• 29:39
  Speaker 13: During your tenure as chair, you often spoke about how
• 29:41
  Speaker 13: disadvantaged Americans benefited from extended periods of low unemployment and
• 29:46
  Speaker 13: the new framework that FED adopted in twenty twenty, some
• 29:49
  Speaker 13: economists say elevated the Fed's employment maindate, Are you worried
• 29:53
  Speaker 13: that the pandemic inflation spike that followed will make future
• 29:58
  Speaker 13: FED chairs more reluctant to pursue a hot jobs market,
• 30:01
  Speaker 13: and should they be.
• 30:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know the answer to that. I mean, what
• 30:08
  Speaker 4: we so, what we experienced in in the teens the
• 30:15
  Speaker 4: mid teens was really low levels of unemployment for a
• 30:20
  Speaker 4: long period of time and no reaction from inflation, and
• 30:23
  Speaker 4: we all took very much took notice of that. We
• 30:26
  Speaker 4: also noticed that the biggest wage gains were going to
• 30:31
  Speaker 4: people at the bottom end of the income spectrum, and
• 30:33
  Speaker 4: we had many, many reports of I mean, it felt
• 30:37
  Speaker 4: like a fairly stable equilibrium and a lot of benefits
• 30:40
  Speaker 4: were flowing to people at the bottom end of the
• 30:42
  Speaker 4: income spectrum, including companies were you know, setting up in
• 30:48
  Speaker 4: people who were confined and like training them before they
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: got out, and it was it was a very healthy
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: sort of set of societal dynamics. So of course, I
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: think anybody would love to get back to that. I
• 31:00
  Speaker 4: don't think that anything that happened to create the global
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: pandemic inflation was in any any way related to overweighting
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: the employment market. Mean, it was. It was a global
• 31:12
  Speaker 4: shock that happened essentially very very similarly all over the
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: world that had to do with closing, reopening, stimulus and
• 31:19
  Speaker 4: all that. And I mean you could you could look
• 31:21
  Speaker 4: at a graph of ten big economies on the page
• 31:24
  Speaker 4: and not know which was the US and which was Germany,
• 31:27
  Speaker 4: France and things like that. So I don't think that
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: that that insight was in any way responsible for the
• 31:33
  Speaker 4: high inflation that we experienced. So, I mean, I think
• 31:37
  Speaker 4: it's always been a balance. You've got to you've got
• 31:42
  Speaker 4: to be strong on both of our dual mandates. And
• 31:45
  Speaker 4: we just, for example, now we don't feel that the
• 31:49
  Speaker 4: labor market is at all a source of inflation, so
• 31:51
  Speaker 4: we don't need to be worrying about that. It's been
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: a long time since we have had to worry about that. Well, actually,
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: during the during the pandemic recovery, the labor market was
• 31:58
  Speaker 4: super overheated and tight, and that's when we had to
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: worry about it. But not now.
• 32:03
  Speaker 13: Just on the other issue, would you need do you
• 32:07
  Speaker 13: need more assurance from the Justice Department before stepping down?
• 32:10
  Speaker 4: Is that what you're waiting for or what else I'm
• 32:13
  Speaker 4: waiting effect, you know, for them for the investigation to
• 32:15
  Speaker 4: be well and truly over with finality and transparency and
• 32:20
  Speaker 4: I'm waiting for that, and I will leave when i
• 32:23
  Speaker 4: think it's appropriate to do so.
• 32:27
  Speaker 14: Michael the Key, Michael packethro Blomberg Television and Radio. I'd
• 32:33
  Speaker 14: like to ask you if you could explain it a
• 32:35
  Speaker 14: little more or characterize a little more of the discussion
• 32:37
  Speaker 14: about the two sided view and interest rates, because there
• 32:42
  Speaker 14: were some members of the Open Market Committee who've been
• 32:44
  Speaker 14: suggesting that we may need to raise interest rates even
• 32:48
  Speaker 14: absent the war, because inflation was not coming down fast enough.
• 32:53
  Speaker 14: Is there any sense that interest rates might have to
• 32:56
  Speaker 14: go up? Or was this just a setup to sort
• 32:59
  Speaker 14: of uh warned people that you're worried about the war impacts.
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: So nobody the three to centers and others who could
• 33:09
  Speaker 4: have supported that, and others who were you know, who
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: were voters and prefer non voters who preferred they all
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: supported the right decision. Right, So people are not saying
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: we need to hike now. It's more a question of,
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: you know, don't we kind of feel that we should
• 33:23
  Speaker 4: be neutral and markets are markets? What are markets doing?
• 33:26
  Speaker 4: People argue that this is consistent with markets are doing,
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: and again it's a it's a very fair question, but
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: you know, these these changes there is you know, it's
• 33:35
  Speaker 4: a form of forward guidance, and you want to make
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: you don't want to make them. You want to make
• 33:40
  Speaker 4: them in a way that will be sustained and continue
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: to make sense and not something you need to take back, Uh,
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: you know, fairly quickly. So I think we, just a
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: group of us, including me, didn't feel like we needed
• 33:52
  Speaker 4: to be in a hurry on that that that markets
• 33:54
  Speaker 4: are not confused about our reaction function. We don't have
• 33:57
  Speaker 4: a problem to solve on that. But the other side
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: of the argument is a good argument too. As I mentioned,
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: it's a perfectly good argument to be having good discussion
• 34:05
  Speaker 4: to be having so and it came out the way
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: it came out.
• 34:07
  Speaker 14: Well, you've got three descents in favor of two sided warning.
• 34:13
  Speaker 14: You've got yourself staying on the board, you've got the
• 34:17
  Speaker 14: criticism that does come from elected officials, and you've got
• 34:21
  Speaker 14: a lot of critics who have faulted the FED for
• 34:25
  Speaker 14: being too slow twenty one with inflation. Are you worried
• 34:29
  Speaker 14: about FED credibility under all of this? Is that one
• 34:32
  Speaker 14: reason that you want to stay on.
• 34:36
  Speaker 4: Not driving my thinking now, I mean, monetary policy is
• 34:40
  Speaker 4: going to get made by nineteen people. There's a lot
• 34:44
  Speaker 4: of stability there. I mean, if you think about it,
• 34:48
  Speaker 4: every new FED chair has the same situation, which is
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: you've got eighteen colleagues on the FMC, Eleven of them
• 34:56
  Speaker 4: vote during any year, and you have to Your job
• 34:59
  Speaker 4: is to create consensus. It's to talk to them, understand them,
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: you know, be inside their thinking and be able to
• 35:07
  Speaker 4: pull them together and get consensus and move And that's
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: that's what every FED chair has to do. And I
• 35:13
  Speaker 4: think Kevin Warrish is actually quite well. He has the
• 35:17
  Speaker 4: capabilities skills to be to be very good at that,
• 35:20
  Speaker 4: I would think. So I think I'm not so worried
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: about that process, you know, I think that'll that'll work
• 35:26
  Speaker 4: itself out. Thank you.
• 35:31
  Speaker 15: Chair Howard Schneider with Reuters, you mentioned that staying on
• 35:36
  Speaker 15: as a governor you intend to keep a low profile.
• 35:38
  Speaker 15: I'm just wondering if you could give us a little
• 35:39
  Speaker 15: more detail on what that looks like and how you
• 35:43
  Speaker 15: can cliche what that, yeah, walk down the stuff, what
• 35:50
  Speaker 15: that looks like, and particularly around the policy discussion, how
• 35:53
  Speaker 15: you're able to to have your intervention and not be
• 35:57
  Speaker 15: a shadowed chair and not have a kind of an
• 35:59
  Speaker 15: outside to influence over the process.
• 36:01
  Speaker 4: Yeah, you know, that's just something I would never do,
• 36:03
  Speaker 4: you know, the shadow chair thing, No, you know, it's
• 36:05
  Speaker 4: it's I don't know what the exact specifics of it
• 36:08
  Speaker 4: will be, but I'm going back to being a governor.
• 36:11
  Speaker 4: I respect the role of chair. You know, I was
• 36:14
  Speaker 4: a chair. I was a governor for six years, and
• 36:16
  Speaker 4: I know what that's like. I know, and I had
• 36:18
  Speaker 4: a pretty front row seat with particularly with chair Yellen,
• 36:22
  Speaker 4: to whom I was close when I when I was
• 36:25
  Speaker 4: worked with Chairman Bernanki for two years. But you know,
• 36:28
  Speaker 4: I was brand new at that time, so I got
• 36:30
  Speaker 4: a sense of what it was and I had real
• 36:32
  Speaker 4: sympathy for how hard it is to get that group
• 36:35
  Speaker 4: to consensus. And I always felt like, I, you know,
• 36:38
  Speaker 4: I don't want to add to that unnecessarily. And that
• 36:40
  Speaker 4: means try to support the chairs where the chair the
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: direction the chair wants to go. And if you can't,
• 36:45
  Speaker 4: if you can't, you can't. But and I think that's
• 36:47
  Speaker 4: that's the way it's always worked there because the chair
• 36:49
  Speaker 4: only has one vote, plus the ability to develop consensus.
• 36:52
  Speaker 4: And if people won't be you know, they won't if
• 36:55
  Speaker 4: they're not flexible at all. Then how do you ever
• 36:57
  Speaker 4: do that? And so that's why the chair has the
• 37:00
  Speaker 4: authority the chair has really is to develop relationships with
• 37:04
  Speaker 4: people and work with them and then and then put
• 37:06
  Speaker 4: something forward that has consensus. And you know, I propose
• 37:10
  Speaker 4: to be a very constructive participant in that process, really
• 37:14
  Speaker 4: out of respect for the office of the Chair.
• 37:17
  Speaker 15: And in your view as a soon to be governor,
• 37:22
  Speaker 15: how do you see the risks of oil prices bleeding
• 37:24
  Speaker 15: into core inflation in coming weeks? Because that was it
• 37:29
  Speaker 15: seems like the commentary that was coming from particularly some
• 37:31
  Speaker 15: of the Reserve Bank presidents, they were elevated concerns about
• 37:34
  Speaker 15: the bleed and the core and you know, here we
• 37:36
  Speaker 15: are with three descents. Now what do you see as
• 37:38
  Speaker 15: the prospect.
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: Of a court lead? You know, those prospects are real,
• 37:42
  Speaker 4: remember though, are the real And the real thing is
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: we're going to have to wait and see. We're going
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: to need to see. And the good news is we
• 37:49
  Speaker 4: think our policy stance is just is in a very
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: good place for us to wait and see. You know,
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: we're right kind of at the high end of neutral
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: or perhaps mildly restrictive. The labor market shows more and
• 38:02
  Speaker 4: more signs of stability, whereas inflation is kind of misbehaving,
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: and so maybe a little bit of restriction or the
• 38:09
  Speaker 4: high end of neutrals is just the right place to be.
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: So we can wait here and see, uh and see
• 38:15
  Speaker 4: how things work out before we act, and we'll see
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: how much that you know, how much does come through
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: into core. You see it already in airfares, of course,
• 38:22
  Speaker 4: but you may see it in many other places. You know,
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: we just don't know yet, and it's it's so unknowable
• 38:29
  Speaker 4: because how long will the straight be closed? You can
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: develop any number of scenarios that you want, but we
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: really won't know until we know. So fortunately we're in
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: a good place to wait and wait to let things develop.
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: Thanks mister chairman.
• 38:47
  Speaker 16: You started holding post meeting press conferences for every meeting
• 38:51
  Speaker 16: as opposed to the ones with just with SEPs.
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: Can you talk about why you see that as a
• 38:55
  Speaker 4: net positive? So we we always say when we were
• 39:00
  Speaker 4: doing quarterly press conference, as we always said we can
• 39:02
  Speaker 4: move at any meeting, but we only ever moved at
• 39:04
  Speaker 4: the quarterly SEP meetings where we had the press conference.
• 39:07
  Speaker 4: So if you think about it, you know we during
• 39:10
  Speaker 4: the pandemic, we were moving like a lot at every
• 39:13
  Speaker 4: meeting and sometimes between meetings, and doing that without press
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: conference I think would have been quite challenging. It's become
• 39:18
  Speaker 4: the industry norm. It's the standard. I don't know whether
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: that has to remain that way. I don't know. I mean,
• 39:24
  Speaker 4: it's just something people have become used to, and I
• 39:26
  Speaker 4: do think it's quite helpful to, you know, to I mean,
• 39:31
  Speaker 4: I try to deliver a message on behalf of the
• 39:33
  Speaker 4: committee rather than eighteen people eighteen other people going out
• 39:36
  Speaker 4: and delivering their message and it's you know, it's going
• 39:38
  Speaker 4: to be all over the place because we do, thankfully
• 39:40
  Speaker 4: have widely disparate views thinks.
• 39:45
  Speaker 16: The other thing I wanted to ask about was the
• 39:47
  Speaker 16: communications review from last year. Could you describe the debate
• 39:52
  Speaker 16: last year, what changes were considered, what you wanted, and
• 39:55
  Speaker 16: what prevented action, any action on the on the those changes.
• 40:00
  Speaker 4: So I'm not going to go into the real small specifics,
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: but what we found very quickly was that making changes,
• 40:12
  Speaker 4: making really large changes, for example, to the dot plot
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: or the SEP, it didn't happen. We couldn't come up
• 40:21
  Speaker 4: with anything that had really broad support on the committee,
• 40:24
  Speaker 4: and so we just moved on we didn't. We didn't
• 40:26
  Speaker 4: really do as much on that as we might have.
• 40:30
  Speaker 4: And you know, I was never the world's biggest fan
• 40:32
  Speaker 4: of the dot plot. But you can't can't beat something
• 40:35
  Speaker 4: with nothing. And you know, there's a that We've looked
• 40:37
  Speaker 4: at a bunch of things, and you know it's something
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: I like I said, I think every new chair is
• 40:43
  Speaker 4: going to look at our suite of communications and think
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: about what would be changes. We are the only major
• 40:52
  Speaker 4: central bank that doesn't publish a forecast, and that's because
• 40:55
  Speaker 4: we have a nineteen person committee. And you know, you
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: try to do it. You try to do that on
• 40:59
  Speaker 4: the at the board. That's hard, At the committee, that's hard.
• 41:03
  Speaker 4: It's hard if you do it at the staff. So
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: it's you know, it's been it works. I think our
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: communications are fine, but looking at doing it in a
• 41:10
  Speaker 4: different and better way is the most natural thing in
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: the world. Thank you.
• 41:19
  Speaker 17: Colby Smith at the New York Times. If I could
• 41:21
  Speaker 17: follow up on Mike's question about hikes, Are we right
• 41:24
  Speaker 17: to assume that the hawkish outcome for the FED is
• 41:27
  Speaker 17: still one in which the committee just extends the paws
• 41:30
  Speaker 17: and rate cuts And to what extent is there a
• 41:32
  Speaker 17: growing sense within the committee that monetary policy really isn't just.
• 41:37
  Speaker 4: Restrictive at all.
• 41:38
  Speaker 17: Right now, the economy is holding up relatively well despite
• 41:42
  Speaker 17: this major energy shock. The unemployment rate has ticked lower,
• 41:45
  Speaker 17: inflation was moving sideways even before the war and is
• 41:48
  Speaker 17: now moving higher. So where is the committee at on
• 41:51
  Speaker 17: that debate?
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: You know where we're at as we think, really we
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: think our policy rate is in a good place. If
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: we need to hike, will we will certainly signal that,
• 42:00
  Speaker 4: and we will and we will certainly do it. And
• 42:02
  Speaker 4: if we need to cut, then if it's appropect to cut,
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: then we'll signal the opposite, I think, because we feel
• 42:09
  Speaker 4: like we're in a good place to move in either direction.
• 42:14
  Speaker 4: Nobody's calling for a hike right now. So it really
• 42:19
  Speaker 4: is going to depend on how things how things evolve. Uh,
• 42:22
  Speaker 4: And you know that that's really where it is. You know,
• 42:25
  Speaker 4: as I mentioned, you know much closer question this cycle
• 42:29
  Speaker 4: on changing the guidance, but but ultimately we didn't.
• 42:32
  Speaker 17: And as it relates to the war, at what point
• 42:35
  Speaker 17: do you think the risk to growth will be larger
• 42:37
  Speaker 17: than the risk to inflation as this conflict drags on.
• 42:42
  Speaker 4: You know, you just have to find that out. Empirically,
• 42:46
  Speaker 4: you know, with given our the fact that we're you know,
• 42:49
  Speaker 4: a big exporter of energy, and that our economy is
• 42:52
  Speaker 4: far less energy intensive oil intensive than it was during
• 42:56
  Speaker 4: the seventies, you know, the effects on the United States
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: are really substantially less than those of Western Europe or Asia,
• 43:06
  Speaker 4: who are feeling much greater effects from these things. Are
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: the effects we're feeling in you know, in the current
• 43:12
  Speaker 4: situation currently and in sort of what's priced in, which
• 43:16
  Speaker 4: is you know, a relatively quick outcome. If if this
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: goes on for much longer and prices go much higher,
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: then we'll feel that much more. And of course I'm
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: talking about aggregate inflation numbers. We know, we're very well
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: aware that people are experiencing higher gas prices all over
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: the country now and that hurts that and these are
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: those those hikes may continue to happen, and other other
• 43:39
  Speaker 4: things are going to start to reflectir airline fares I mentioned,
• 43:42
  Speaker 4: and other other products and services that are dependent upon
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: petroleum and derivatives of patrolling, and people are going to
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: start to feel that. Edward, thank you, Thank you.
• 43:55
  Speaker 18: Trivell Ever Lawrence with Fox Business. So I guess I'll
• 43:58
  Speaker 18: just ask you directly on this. The more markets don't
• 44:00
  Speaker 18: see a rate cut at all this year, is what
• 44:03
  Speaker 18: they're predicting. Do you think that we are at the
• 44:05
  Speaker 18: neutral rate? Why or why not?
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: You know the neutral rate is, we cannot know it
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: with certainty. I think pretty close to the neutral rate, Yeah,
• 44:16
  Speaker 4: I always had it, you know, between three and four percent.
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: We're a little north to three and a half. So
• 44:21
  Speaker 4: that's well in the range of what I would consider
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: a reasonable reasonable but at the higher end of the
• 44:24
  Speaker 4: range of what I would consider reasonable neutral rate. You know,
• 44:28
  Speaker 4: I think you're the labor market is still probably cooling
• 44:32
  Speaker 4: off just a little bit. And I don't think there's
• 44:37
  Speaker 4: a much of a case for any case really for
• 44:40
  Speaker 4: the for policy looking you know, meaningfully restrictive, maybe mildly
• 44:45
  Speaker 4: restrictive or neutral, I would say.
• 44:48
  Speaker 18: And I want to follow up on some of the
• 44:49
  Speaker 18: other questions about your future a little bit. The first
• 44:52
  Speaker 18: time we've seen four descents now since October of nineteen
• 44:56
  Speaker 18: ninety two, are you handing off a divided fed?
• 45:00
  Speaker 8: You know?
• 45:01
  Speaker 4: The thing to remember is we have always had vigorous debates,
• 45:06
  Speaker 4: and and they're excellent debates, I have to say there
• 45:09
  Speaker 4: they've been really good and we're in an unusually difficult situation.
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: So we've really had four supply shocks. You can actually
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: can you can say more than four, but at a minimum,
• 45:21
  Speaker 4: we've we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of
• 45:25
  Speaker 4: the of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have
• 45:28
  Speaker 4: Iran and the oil you know, the oil spike. So
• 45:33
  Speaker 4: those every supply shock has the capability of right driving
• 45:37
  Speaker 4: inflation up and unemployment up. And what do you do.
• 45:40
  Speaker 4: You know, it's central Bank has a really hard time
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: knowing what to do. So the right thing to do
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: is to try to balance the achievement of those two goals,
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: and that's what our framework calls for us to do.
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: But these are really tough, difficult judgments. You've got to
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: have a forecast for each variable. You've got to think
• 45:56
  Speaker 4: how long it's going to take to get back to target.
• 45:59
  Speaker 4: You got to think how restrictive or not as policy.
• 46:02
  Speaker 4: So it's only natural that you have a range of
• 46:04
  Speaker 4: views on the committee. You know, people are going to
• 46:06
  Speaker 4: see it different ways, They're going to have different risk
• 46:08
  Speaker 4: tolerances and that kind of thing. I mean, if everybody
• 46:10
  Speaker 4: agreed that would be that would be surprising. And I
• 46:15
  Speaker 4: think it's only it's partly a function of the extraordinarily
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with
• 46:22
  Speaker 4: now for five six years.
• 46:29
  Speaker 19: Thank you so much, Chair Powell. Selina Wayne with ABC News.
• 46:32
  Speaker 19: Are you confident that Kevin Warsh will stand up to
• 46:35
  Speaker 19: political pressure from President Trump?
• 46:37
  Speaker 4: So he testified very strongly to that effect in his hearing,
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: and I'll take him at his word.
• 46:43
  Speaker 19: And when it comes to gas right now, it's over
• 46:44
  Speaker 19: four dollars a gallon, Inflation just hit a two year high.
• 46:49
  Speaker 19: Should Americans expect to be paying higher gas prices for
• 46:52
  Speaker 19: the rest of this year? And in your view, does
• 46:54
  Speaker 19: that take a rate cut off of the table. And secondly,
• 46:58
  Speaker 19: by staying on as a fed governor, what message do
• 47:01
  Speaker 19: you think you're sending to the president.
• 47:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know what gas prices are going to do
• 47:06
  Speaker 4: for the rest of the year, and it will depend
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: on how long the straight remains closed, how quick quickly
• 47:11
  Speaker 4: it can be reopening that kind of thing. But remember,
• 47:14
  Speaker 4: when gas prices go up, that's disposable income coming out
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: of people's pockets, so they're going to spend less on
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: other things, so there will be a hit to GDP
• 47:23
  Speaker 4: so it's a you know, it's a it's a question
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: whether spending, you know, goes down to offset the inflationary effects.
• 47:32
  Speaker 4: So it's not the answer isn't obvious, uh ex ante,
• 47:37
  Speaker 4: whether you should move your rate or because of that,
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: We'll have to see how it.
• 47:42
  Speaker 19: Evolves and the message that's up by staying on.
• 47:45
  Speaker 4: We'll stand on what I said earlier. Victoria, Hi, Victoria
• 47:54
  Speaker 4: Guido with Politico.
• 47:56
  Speaker 20: During your tenure, FED independence has come under pressure and
• 47:59
  Speaker 20: a lot of different ways, And I was just wondering,
• 48:02
  Speaker 20: practically speaking, where do you see FED independence as coming from.
• 48:06
  Speaker 10: Is it the law?
• 48:07
  Speaker 20: Is it political support from Congress? Is it the actions
• 48:10
  Speaker 20: of the Fed? What sustains be independence?
• 48:14
  Speaker 4: Well, it's you know, it's it's to a significant extent,
• 48:17
  Speaker 4: it is the law, and you know we've had to
• 48:20
  Speaker 4: go to court to successfully so far to defend it.
• 48:24
  Speaker 4: But you know, the law does create a setting in
• 48:28
  Speaker 4: which the FED can and is directed to make monetary
• 48:34
  Speaker 4: policy without consideration of political factors and so so part
• 48:39
  Speaker 4: of it is the law, but it goes beyond that.
• 48:41
  Speaker 4: Though there's a set of customs, there's there's a boundary
• 48:44
  Speaker 4: line between the FED and the administration, between the FED
• 48:47
  Speaker 4: and the Treasury Department, and we need to respect those
• 48:50
  Speaker 4: continue to respect those boundaries about what the FED is
• 48:53
  Speaker 4: responsible for and what the Treasury is responsible for and
• 48:56
  Speaker 4: with the rest of the administrations are positive responsible. So
• 48:59
  Speaker 4: some of it is legal. In fact, it's all legal
• 49:02
  Speaker 4: at the end of the day. But there it's it's
• 49:04
  Speaker 4: more than just monetary policy. We you know, we don't
• 49:07
  Speaker 4: we don't want to use our tools to We haven't
• 49:10
  Speaker 4: wanted to use our tools to achieve goals that are
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: really clearly outside our mandate. Every administration looks at our
• 49:16
  Speaker 4: tools and thinks that would be good to repurpose those
• 49:19
  Speaker 4: to serve other purposes. But that gets that's dragging us
• 49:23
  Speaker 4: into politics in the fiscal policy. So we've resisted that well.
• 49:27
  Speaker 20: And maybe another way of asking it too is do
• 49:30
  Speaker 20: you think that FED independence is as strong now as
• 49:32
  Speaker 20: when you became chair?
• 49:34
  Speaker 4: And if so, why, Look, I think it's at risk.
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think these these you know, these legal assaults,
• 49:43
  Speaker 4: if you will, as I mentioned, you know, we're the
• 49:46
  Speaker 4: institution is being battered over these things. We're having to
• 49:48
  Speaker 4: resort to, you know, the courts, to to enforce our
• 49:53
  Speaker 4: legal you know, into not it's not so much independence.
• 49:56
  Speaker 4: It's it's really the ability to do monetary to make
• 50:00
  Speaker 4: monetary policy without political considerations. That's what we're talking about.
• 50:04
  Speaker 4: And we've had to do that and we've been successful
• 50:08
  Speaker 4: so far, but that's not over. None of that is
• 50:10
  Speaker 4: concluded yet. And it's you know, it's really important. It's
• 50:13
  Speaker 4: not about it's not about people who work at the
• 50:15
  Speaker 4: FED or the institution. It's about the benefits of a
• 50:18
  Speaker 4: central bank that makes decisions based on analysis and our
• 50:23
  Speaker 4: best thinking, rather than you know, trying to help or
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: hurt politicians. It's you know that there's there's a bright
• 50:30
  Speaker 4: line between central banks who do one and do the other,
• 50:34
  Speaker 4: and successful countries have uniformly successful advanced economy countries have
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: a really strong set of protections around their central bank
• 50:43
  Speaker 4: just for that reason. So that's what it's all about.
• 50:46
  Speaker 4: You know. I think I am confident, as I said
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: in my remarks that if that will continue to make
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: its decision based on analysis, rigorous analysis, and not on
• 50:55
  Speaker 4: political considerations. But we've had to fight for it, and
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: I you know, i'd like to think that, you know,
• 51:00
  Speaker 4: I like to think we can get out of that
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: era and go back to respecting you know what the
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: law says and what custom has been, which is to
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: you know, let the Fed do our thing. We're you know,
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: we're We're not. It's a it's an institution full of
• 51:14
  Speaker 4: human beings who work super hard to get things right
• 51:17
  Speaker 4: for the benefit of the public. We're all human. Don't
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: expect for perfection, but do expect us to make, you know,
• 51:22
  Speaker 4: decisions without political considerations and the very best analysis we
• 51:27
  Speaker 4: can bring.
• 51:30
  Speaker 10: Katerina Katerina Sarava, Bloomberg News. How would you characterize what
• 51:39
  Speaker 10: you've heard from your colleagues on your decision to stay?
• 51:42
  Speaker 10: Do you have their support?
• 51:44
  Speaker 21: And then have you.
• 51:44
  Speaker 10: Heard concern from your colleagues about continued legal attacks from
• 51:51
  Speaker 10: the executive branch? Is this something that others have, you know,
• 51:55
  Speaker 10: talked to you about?
• 51:56
  Speaker 4: So I think that I don't want to report on
• 52:01
  Speaker 4: what my colleagues think. They can they can speak for themselves,
• 52:03
  Speaker 4: but you know, yeah, there are they are widespread concerns
• 52:06
  Speaker 4: that these things may continue. That's all That's all I'll say.
• 52:09
  Speaker 4: And uh, you know, and that would be a problem and.
• 52:14
  Speaker 10: So and then I just also wanted to ask about
• 52:18
  Speaker 10: Governor Waller's speech on the reserve banks. What you know,
• 52:24
  Speaker 10: do you have any thoughts on centralizing some of those
• 52:26
  Speaker 10: functions and the way he described and then have you know,
• 52:31
  Speaker 10: do you are you concerned that something like that could
• 52:34
  Speaker 10: potentially be a slippery slope to you know, to consolidate
• 52:39
  Speaker 10: reserve bank functions even more in such a way where
• 52:42
  Speaker 10: you you know, the central bank ultimately loses some of
• 52:45
  Speaker 10: that important regional information.
• 52:48
  Speaker 4: So we try to be good stewards of the public's
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: money and efficient and Chris in particular, or Chris Waller
• 52:56
  Speaker 4: is particularly passionate about that. Of course, so are the reserves,
• 52:59
  Speaker 4: so are the presidents. And you know, it's a question
• 53:02
  Speaker 4: of how do you accomplish it. We of course, and
• 53:06
  Speaker 4: Chris said this in his speech. You know, we want
• 53:08
  Speaker 4: twelve strong, independent central banks with their own staffs and
• 53:12
  Speaker 4: their own monetary policy views and all that. But you know,
• 53:16
  Speaker 4: there are things that are done in all twelve which
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: could well be done at one much more efficiently and
• 53:20
  Speaker 4: with cost savings. And so there's a back and forth
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: going on that, but everybody, everybody's on the same page.
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: The other thing he touched on was was the idea
• 53:29
  Speaker 4: of removing reserve brank presidents from office over different different
• 53:34
  Speaker 4: views on monetary policy and would I would just agree
• 53:36
  Speaker 4: with him so strongly that that would be the beginning
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: of the end of the fed'sibility to make monetary policy independently.
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: If every administration could come in and do that, You're
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: just another cabinet agency at that point. So that's not
• 53:51
  Speaker 4: something that I would support. Chris said the same thing, Christine.
• 53:58
  Speaker 21: Thanks Chabow with Christine Romans, NBC News. I want to
• 54:01
  Speaker 21: ask about legacy. When the history books are written, how
• 54:05
  Speaker 21: do you think your stewardship at the FED will be
• 54:08
  Speaker 21: remembered for the past eight years.
• 54:11
  Speaker 4: You know, I'm going to just say that that's for
• 54:14
  Speaker 4: someone else to say. I'll give you a mulligan on.
• 54:16
  Speaker 21: That, all right, I'm going to ask you about it
• 54:20
  Speaker 21: misbehaving inflation. Then you talked about those four big shock
• 54:23
  Speaker 21: supply shocks over the past five years, and inflation still misbehaving.
• 54:28
  Speaker 21: What's your message to American families who feel like inflation
• 54:30
  Speaker 21: has not been under control for them really since the
• 54:33
  Speaker 21: COVID reopening.
• 54:35
  Speaker 4: You know, we're committed to bring inflation back down to
• 54:38
  Speaker 4: two percent and sustainably. That's our goal, and we will
• 54:43
  Speaker 4: We'll stick at it until that happens. We keep getting
• 54:46
  Speaker 4: these events keep happening, which keep driving up costs, and
• 54:50
  Speaker 4: you know, the best thing we can do is to
• 54:53
  Speaker 4: use our tools to guide inflation back down to two percent.
• 54:57
  Speaker 4: I think trying to get there really quickly could be
• 55:00
  Speaker 4: very costly in terms of job loss and things like that.
• 55:04
  Speaker 4: But we try to get there over time in a
• 55:07
  Speaker 4: way that does the least damage possible, and you know,
• 55:09
  Speaker 4: our commitment to that is never ending, in unshakable.
• 55:12
  Speaker 21: How would you describe the economy outside of the misbehaving inflation.
• 55:16
  Speaker 21: I mean, it's still awfully resilient given all of the blows.
• 55:22
  Speaker 4: I don't know that you can be awfully resilient. So
• 55:24
  Speaker 4: it's actually quite resilient, I would say, because it's a
• 55:27
  Speaker 4: positive thing. If I can, if I can have that amendment. Yeah,
• 55:30
  Speaker 4: growth is really solid across our economy. Some of that
• 55:35
  Speaker 4: is that consumer spending is hanging in pretty well. The
• 55:39
  Speaker 4: most recent data are good. And some of it is
• 55:41
  Speaker 4: just the apparently insatiable demand for data centers all over
• 55:45
  Speaker 4: the United States. So a lot of business investment going
• 55:48
  Speaker 4: into building data centers and every reason I think that
• 55:51
  Speaker 4: that continues. So you've got an economy that's growing at
• 55:54
  Speaker 4: two percent or better PDFP, which is private domestic final
• 55:57
  Speaker 4: purpose purchases, that which is really a better signal of
• 56:02
  Speaker 4: a momentum in the times, is actually higher than that,
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: so that's you know, that's a positive thing. If you
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: look at the unemployment rate, it's four point three percent,
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: so that's a low rate. That's pretty close to mainstream
• 56:14
  Speaker 4: estimates of the natural rate. We've been there for a
• 56:15
  Speaker 4: long time, so it's it doesn't feel like a good
• 56:19
  Speaker 4: labor market to some who don't have jobs because quits
• 56:22
  Speaker 4: are really low, hires are really low, and there's effectively
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: no new net job creation. So that's that's you know,
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: in a sense, the labor market is in balance, but
• 56:34
  Speaker 4: it's an unusual and uncomfortable kind of a balance where
• 56:37
  Speaker 4: people who don't have jobs will have a hard time
• 56:40
  Speaker 4: breaking in unless somebody quits their job. So that's pretty good.
• 56:44
  Speaker 7: You know.
• 56:44
  Speaker 4: Inflation is the thing we need to work on, and
• 56:47
  Speaker 4: it's partly tariffs, which we think. We think that that
• 56:50
  Speaker 4: inflation should subside over the course of this year because
• 56:53
  Speaker 4: it's it's kind of a one time increase. It shouldn't
• 56:55
  Speaker 4: be repeated, and that should start happening pretty soon. The
• 56:58
  Speaker 4: energy inflation that we're getting should go through fairly quickly,
• 57:04
  Speaker 4: and we'll just have to see how that works out.
• 57:06
  Speaker 4: In the meantime. You know, we think our policy stance
• 57:08
  Speaker 4: is in a good place for us to hold and
• 57:10
  Speaker 4: weight developments.
• 57:15
  Speaker 22: Thank you, Chair Pal Jennifer Schnberger with the ABU finance.
• 57:18
  Speaker 22: At the risk of beating the dead horse here, clearly
• 57:21
  Speaker 22: three members objected to keeping that easing bias in the statement,
• 57:25
  Speaker 22: and you said that the majority still didn't need still
• 57:30
  Speaker 22: didn't need to move to new language at this point.
• 57:33
  Speaker 22: So does the majority of the committee still have a
• 57:36
  Speaker 22: bias towards cuts at this point or has the bias
• 57:40
  Speaker 22: on the committee shifted away from cots towards holding or
• 57:44
  Speaker 22: hikes if that was needed.
• 57:46
  Speaker 4: So I think that you know, the center is moving
• 57:50
  Speaker 4: toward a more neutral place, and that's sort of what
• 57:54
  Speaker 4: markets are saying too. I just think, you know, there's
• 57:58
  Speaker 4: a lot of signaling going on when you change guidance
• 58:01
  Speaker 4: like that, and so we just I guess the major
• 58:04
  Speaker 4: majority of us didn't feel like we needed to send
• 58:07
  Speaker 4: a signal on that right now, but maybe it'll come
• 58:11
  Speaker 4: to that. And the reason is because you know, we're
• 58:14
  Speaker 4: kind of waiting to see what happens with with events
• 58:17
  Speaker 4: in the Middle East, and what are the implications of
• 58:19
  Speaker 4: those events for the US economy. So there was just
• 58:23
  Speaker 4: a there's a group that feels like we don't need
• 58:24
  Speaker 4: to be in a hurry to do that. We get it,
• 58:27
  Speaker 4: and of course we will move to a hiking bias
• 58:30
  Speaker 4: if we want to hike, and we'll move to a
• 58:31
  Speaker 4: new a neutral bias before that, but there was a
• 58:33
  Speaker 4: difference over whether to do it at this meeting. At
• 58:36
  Speaker 4: a meeting at which all but one of us agreed
• 58:39
  Speaker 4: that that the that the rate decision was correct, which
• 58:41
  Speaker 4: was not the move.
• 58:42
  Speaker 22: And you just said that you believe fed independence is
• 58:46
  Speaker 22: at risk. Is it safe to say that you want
• 58:49
  Speaker 22: to stay on as a governor to serve as a
• 58:51
  Speaker 22: check in balance on that.
• 58:54
  Speaker 4: I want to stay until I will stay until it's
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: I feel it's appropriate for me to leave. And yes,
• 58:59
  Speaker 4: that is That's really what is driving this. I'm not
• 59:05
  Speaker 4: looking to be, you know, a high profile dissident or
• 59:09
  Speaker 4: anything like that. I'm more looking at the other aspects
• 59:13
  Speaker 4: of this and wanting to see that things have calmed
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: down and we're returning to a traditional model of working
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: with the people that you have and bringing into consensus
• 59:24
  Speaker 4: and respecting that consensus. That's what I'm hoping to see.
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: Matt Egan.
• 59:35
  Speaker 4: Things Terpout Medigan CNN.
• 59:38
  Speaker 23: You've made many tough decisions in your time at the FED,
• 59:42
  Speaker 23: and as your time as chair comes to a close
• 59:45
  Speaker 23: and you think about your tenure and perhaps your legacy,
• 59:48
  Speaker 23: are there any decisions that stand out as ones that
• 59:50
  Speaker 23: you're particularly proud of? And are there any that, with
• 59:54
  Speaker 23: the benefit of hindsight, you would take a Mullian on.
• 59:58
  Speaker 4: Yeah, it's hard. I wouldn't want to sign single out
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: individual things at this point, you know, I'll just say,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: you know, we all of us together have consistently tried
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 4: to do what we think is best for the American
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 4: people based on our tools and our objectives that Congress
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: has given us. It's been very challenging because we've been
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: in a situation of supply shock, supply shocks really for
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 4: six years, and that's just a very different situation than
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 4: for a very long time. What to FED and other
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 4: central banks were doing all the time was demand management,
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 4: and you know, and there was always the inflation mandate,
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: but inflation was low for twenty five years. So this
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 4: is a very different world. And a much more challenging
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: one where you have to balance the two objectives. And
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 4: by the way, central banks that have an inflation mandate
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 4: have to do exactly the same thing because they're balancing
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 4: economic activity. So that's been challenging, and we've, you know,
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: we've tried to do our very best through these really
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 4: challenging times. And I'm I'm really proud of the work
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 4: that I've done, that my colleagues and I have done
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 4: during these years.
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 23: To follow upon some of the discussion around FED independence,
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 23: can you explain to the public why this notion of
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 23: FED independence, which might sound kind of wonky to some,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 23: is so critical. I mean, what are the consequences if
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 23: either the Supreme Court rules against Lisa Cook or the
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 23: FED in the future just adds to make decisions more
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 23: around the political calendar instead of the economic data.
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 4: So every major advanced economy in the world has made
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 4: the same decision in the United States has made, and
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 4: that is that they want to take the making of
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 4: monetary policy, the setting of interest rates to support the
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 4: economy to achieve maximum employment and price stability. They want
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: to take that out of the direct control of elected politicians.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 4: And the reason is elected politicians are always running for
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: election and they'll always want low rates, and that will
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: lead to inflation over time. So after you know, literally
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: centuries of experience with that, the whole world moved to
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: the different model and it's worked great. I mean, this
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 4: is this is the era in which inflation was under
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 4: control for forty years. Then we had the pandemic inflation
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 4: everywhere in the world, And now we have inflation that
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 4: had gone pretty much all the way back to target,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: really close to all the way back to target, and
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 4: now is being buffeted by the energy shock in the US,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 4: buffeted by the tariff shock as well. So but what
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: I would say to the general public is that that's
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: the backstory, is that it. Don't think of about it
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 4: an institution being independent. Think about it this way, that
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 4: you want people to make monetary policy and set interest
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 4: rates to benefit the general public and to try to
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 4: achieve economic goals, which are maximum employment and price stability,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 4: and focus only on that and ignore political considerations completely
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 4: ignore them. This isn't bipartisan, this is nonpartisan. So we
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: want to just we just work directly for the American
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 4: people doing these things. Don't think, oh this will I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 4: want to do this because the President says it's a
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 4: good idea, or because there's an election coming up and
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: I want to I want to speed up or slow
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 4: down the economy. I mean, think about that. If that's
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 4: if that's what we were doing, we'd have no credibility.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 4: Markets would lose faith in US and our ability to
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 4: control inflation and and have any respect would be you know, it
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 4: would be gone. And let me say whatever people say,
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 4: the markets believe in that we will produce two percent inflation.
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 4: If you look at longer run expectations, markets believe that
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 4: they There's there's no sense in which our credibility in
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 4: the markets has weakened. It's just not the case. It's
• 1:03:37
  Speaker 4: it's people do get it that this is our commitment
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 4: and that we will achieve it, and it's priced in.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: If you disagree with that, then you can go ahead
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 4: and bet against the markets. But the markets are pricing
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: in FED credibility.
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 21: Okay, we'll go to Richard for the last one.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 24: Thank you, Thank you, Suirpal Richard sqbdo with CBS News.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 24: We're talking a lot about gasoline price and even you
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 24: mentioned airline ticket prices, both of which are up dramatically
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 24: because of the war and Iran, and so I wonder
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 24: are you seeing that way down consumer spending in other
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 24: parts of the economy, And if so, how worried are
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 24: you that that will be a drag on growth?
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 4: You you don't see it in spending yet, you really don't.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 4: I mean, as one of your colleagues said, the economy
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 4: has been resilient. It really has. Not just this time,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 4: but it's been remarkably resilient for some years now. The
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 4: US economy has just powered through shock after shock, and
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 4: consumers are still spending. And that's what the banks will
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 4: tell you, credit card companies will tell you the retail
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: sales numbers that we got most recently. People are still spending.
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 4: And you know, how long can that go on? In
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 4: a world where if gas prices were to go up
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 4: a bunch more, that's taking otherwise spendable money out of
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 4: people's pockets. But right now we don't actually see much
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 4: slow down yet, certainly none from this. But you think
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 4: logically you will, because people have a certain amount of
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 4: money to spend. Their spending twenty five percent more in
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 4: gas or something like that, then you know that's going
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 4: to come out of other spending. But again, we don't
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 4: see it yet.
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 24: One last thing, you mentioned those economies in Southeast Asia
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 24: that are particularly dependent on petroleum. They make a lot
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 24: of the stuff that American consumers buy. So was there
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 24: any discussion today about whether or not those costs getting
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 24: passed along to consumers is a real concern, and whether
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 24: or not that might push up inflation.
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 4: So all of those things are in there, are in
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 4: the models that we use to calculate inflation, so you know,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 4: they're just parts. You can ask about anything like that,
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 4: and they are. They have a place, the staff has
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 4: a place where they're looking at that and pricing in
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 4: what will happen with higher prices and that kind of thing,
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 4: So it's there. The effects are not that big yet.
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 4: You know, we're a huge economy. The import sector is
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 4: only ten percent of the economy, so we're not like
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 4: a European country. We're fifty percent of the extra of
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 4: the GDP is in the external sector. We're also, you know,
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 4: as I mentioned, we're an oil exporter, so we're not
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 4: feeling the same kind of pain and we're not likely
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 4: to feel the same kind of pain that economies in
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 4: Western Europe and certainly in Asia are feeling anyway. Thank
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 4: you very much everyone. I won't see you next time.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 1: All right, So a lot to break down from the
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 1: meeting today. Chair Powell addressed a lot of issues that
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: of course we need to really wrap up in a
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: final video for you guys.
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 2: We'll get to that.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: I've got to catch a flight, so we're going to
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: be going out to xrp's event, and of course Bitcoin
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: is going on Solana. There's quite a few events happening
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: in Vegas. I'm going to be getting out there. We'll
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: be covering that. I'll get some content to you guys
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: for that as well, so be watching the channels for that.
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: And of course you know the issue right now. I
• 1:06:58
  Speaker 1: think as we move into the next phase of the FED,
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 1: we now have Kevin Walsh coming in. So the next
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: time we do this, if we do it with Kevin Walsh,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: we're gonna get a chance to see what his policy
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: is gonna be. It's been good seeing Chair Pal for
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: the last few years. We will catch you guys later.
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: If you like this video, like and subscribe, drop a
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: comment down below, and also join our free private member group.
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 4: The link is in the description