Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / This Is The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 13 May 2024

Transcript

This Is The Best Investing Opportunity This Decade + Stock Market News 13 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to a live stream here pre-market, from a slightly different surrounding to usual.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: It's a real struggle and it is this blue sky and beautiful, because that's pretty much exactly where the market is.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: And my intention with these live streams pre-market is always to impart on you a little bit of old banker wisdom and make you the best informed investors out there so you can actually take advantage of the day-to-day and the week-to-week and the decades-to-decades, depending on how you trade or invest.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: If you want to join me in about 48 hours for a session in which I'll teach you how we made $6,000 in April on a 30K portfolio and how we've done over 100% return on capital employed each of the last two years following my three-step system, which is basically pretty much as fully automated as you can get and beginners can do it, Come and join me at felixfriendsorg slash webinar Link is down below in the description, as they say in some parts of europe and join me seriously.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: It'll take about an hour 90 minutes maybe, to kind of teach you that, give you the real insight, the real walkthrough and everything else.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: So come and head over there and I'll explain it to you now.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Now, slightly temporary setup here.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: I hope I can see your chats on this thing here.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Otherwise, good morning to you.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Gme squeeze Time.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Felix got out his pajamas and yes, indeed, GME is definitely a story we should touch upon here briefly today, although not the most important story of the day, I would see.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: El descripción exactly says Victor, so let me share my screen with you here, if I can figure that out.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: There we go.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: It's all a bit more challenging when you are on a laptop, but we will crack it and look at the gloriousness that is pre-market.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Now it's all pretty green.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Apple is up over a percent, Microsoft almost a percent.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Microsoft almost a percent up.
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: The banks are looking good.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: Even tesla is green.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: What the heck's going on with google?
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Well, open ai is doing a launch event today, just one day before google's big sort of developer extravaganza, and the rumor is that they're announcing the search engine of all search engines and that, of course, would be targeting Google's business and therefore Google down two and a half percentage points here.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: I think Google will be just fine.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you, I think their dominance is so extreme.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: It'll take a long time to knock them off the pedestal there and they've got pretty much unlimited capital to catch up, if there is some catching up to be done.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it'd be interesting to see if somebody can revolutionize search.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: That's definitely one of the themes here this morning.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: What about market positioning generally?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: If you look at where we are at with the S&P here we're looking at on my screen is ever so slightly bright because it's bloody sunny in the south of France, which is a real struggle, of course, for you, I understand.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: Anyway, you get the idea.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: We are trading at 522, up slightly here this morning, and we are in the land where the market makers are forced to buy the market.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: So it's basically it's a pretty supportive place to be in and it just means it's Goldilocks scenario the skies are blue, the sun is out, the birds are chirping and everything is freaking wonderful.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And what you do in those environments you don't ask.
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Well, you should ask why.
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: But once you've gotten over that and someone explained it to you and you went, it's a bullish trading zone.
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: Right now, Everything looks pretty freaking wonderful and therefore let's enjoy it.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Right, let's enjoy the green rally as it lasts, when it lasts.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: For as long as it lasts, I think we're going to have a pretty freaking great year ahead of us.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: I'm turning short term, which is next couple of weeks, and medium term, for the year.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: I'm turning pretty bullish.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: There will always be blips in the market, but I'm feeling buoyed by the sunshine here.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Feel free to ask questions, guys.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Just put them on the chat here.
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: I can see them on this little tablet here.
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: Why not trade with Hood?
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: Ha ha ha.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: So basically, okay, let's walk through the GME thing here.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: So the chap who was responsible largely for the GameStop trading madness has come out of the woodwork somehow somewhere and he posted a tweet on Twitter.
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: And when you post a tweet on Twitter like that and you haven't done that in three years, your Reddit fans go, let's go and GameStop's up what?
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: 20% or something.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Let's have a look.
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: Gme we need higher resolution screens.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: We are up 43%.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Oh, the party is back, Isn't it wonderful?
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Now, does that mean you should buy the thing?
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm actually going to put out a video later where I'll walk you through the fundamentals of GameStop, and I would just say step away from the ledge until you've watched that video coming out a little later.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: And the hedge fund friends that I have not far from here in Monaco.
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: I remember them saying last year.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: It's just so easy taking money from the Reddit crowd and this whole thing has been mislabeled as in.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: It's some sort of retail frenzy where you and I make a lot of money when in reality most of you and I lose a lot of money.
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: A couple of people occasionally get lucky, but like the lottery, the hedge funds typically make a killing.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there were a few who got burned a little, singed a little, but overall they made a lot of money out of it and they fuel this.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Don't tell me that they're not in the Reddit channels with fake accounts and all that kind of stuff, because they're doing all of these shenanigans.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Then Robinhood apparently suspending trading of GME on their Korean platform overnight, which again shows who's in charge at Robinhood Citadel Exactly the champions of the little man who made $30 billion profit last year.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: That's the ones.
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: Nico asks how do you buy SPHQ in Europe?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: You know, I actually looked a little bit after I made that video last week on what could be a quality ETF and there is this ticker SPHQ and I do like it.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: But when you look at the performance of SPHQ versus, say, SPY or VOO or any index tracker of the whole S&P, it's pretty much the same thing.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: Because the biggest stocks, the top seven, driven all the performance and they're pretty much equally placed in both of these ETFs.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So you might want to just look at a standard index ETF, because it's cheaper and easier to access.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: There is noise Jerry says there's noise about recession and doom and gloom this year.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: What's your opinion?
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: Well, my opinion on that is that, yeah, there is a lot of stuff that's definitely dodgy.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: You can make ourselves a little bit bigger here.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: There is a lot of stuff that's definitely dodgy.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: There is a lot of stuff out there that's definitely dodgy.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: I mean housing crisis, banking crisis, commercial real estate crisis, US offices being written down to the tune of about 30%, 40%.
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big bubble there that just popped, and dozens more banks will fail this year.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: I would think Got the first one just.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: But the funny thing with that is that, yes, the consumer is underwater in debt, but the funny thing with all of that is that what happens when the consumer's got less money and it's drowning in debt?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: What happens when banks are failing because interest rates are too high?
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: What happens when commercial real estate collapses because interest rates are too high?
• 8:29
  Speaker 1: Do you see the common denominator it's all about interest rates.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: So the Fed should therefore cut interest rates, maybe a little bit sooner, or maybe a little bit more frequently than currently priced in.
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: It means the stock market's going to love it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean it means the stock market's going to love it Now?
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: If it means we get a real, proper recession, I would imagine the Fed will cut faster and the government will chuck some helicopter money at you, because we're all Japanese now.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So I think we're in this scenario where the risk has basically been taken away.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: The Fed seems to have not a dual mandate.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: Their original, their written down mandate is full employment and financial interest rates, stability sort of thing.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: Right, it's those kinds of inflation really.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Rather, Inflation and employment is their job Low inflation, high employment.
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: But there's a third one in that isn't there.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: There is market stability, and every single time we had a crisis, what happens?
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: The Fed comes in and goes money, money, money, money, liquidity, and the same thing is going to happen again.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: So if there is a freaking dip, buy the freaking dip, because it's going to be a wonderful opportunity, and you will get bailed out.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: And do I approve of that system?
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: No, it's total, bloody, utter madness.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: And will it eventually lead to disaster?
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Yes, but now isn't eventually, and I take advantage of things that can make us money in the short term.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: We'll trade it.
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: We'll trade it Come how we learn how we trade it.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow I'll run a live trading session from here this beautiful view and the south of France felixfriendsorg slash webinar and I'll teach you the three-step system that we have that allows beginners to do what I do.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: So there we go.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: Amc is also up 18% playing silly games.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely madness.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Let me see some of your questions here.
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: We're all Japanese now.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: Okay, Sam, I, Somebody got that reference.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Even IKEA started the blueberry prices.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Oh really, Danzo's tried Japanese fish stock.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: That's probably bonito flakes.
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: I'm not a big fan.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: If you're in Japan, if you're a vegetarian like me, it's pretty hard to get around the bloody bonito fish stock.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: But seaweed, on the other hand, I am a big fan of.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure, Danzo, you and I can agree on seaweed.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: King, you got your law degree today, Congratulations.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: I'd say it's completely useless.
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: It's not.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: Actually.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I went to law school.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: It is useful, but don't be a lawyer.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: That would be my opinion.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: I think lawyers are, by and large, pretty miserable people.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I've got one friend who's an exceptionally successful lawyer probably one in a half a million.
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: She's that kind of a lawyer and she's doing exceptionally well and getting paid very, very handsomely for it.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: If you're that smart, okay, go and be a lawyer and work at one of the top two or three private equity firms.
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: But everybody else is just a miserable existence.
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: Sorry to burst your bubble there, but use the knowledge because it helps when you set up businesses, which I've done many times or when you buy anything around the world structuring things.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: You understand what most people don't understand and you see the risk.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: The trouble is when you become a lawyer for too long and you work in the law for more.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: You see this risk and therefore you don't do very much.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So take the knowledge and use it in business.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: That would be my advice for that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Congratulations, nevertheless, on your degree.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: Andrew says Palantir is so undervalued.
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: Well, I'm not sure that I would really agree with that right now.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: If you look at multiples and so on, you look at Thiel selling at 2150.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: He sold about 40% of his holdings this year.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: I think a little bit of caution and a little bit of a breather is required there.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: This is not a stock that's going to make you rich quick.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: It could make you rich in the long run Certainly stand out for Peter Thiel, but it won't do it in a month or six months or a year.
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: That would be my slightly pessimistic view on that.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: Not because it isn't a brilliant product.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: It's just that they don't care to make a big profit in the short term.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: It's not their interest.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: They just want to become big, and they're not yet.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: They'll take their time.