Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: Wall Street is BUYING Your Stocks + Stock Market News 06 May 2024

Transcript

Warning: Wall Street is BUYING Your Stocks + Stock Market News 06 May 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Apple down a touch because Warren the Buffett, the grandmaster himself, has sold $20 billion worth of Apple stock, which isn't exactly a sign of confidence in Apple's ability to pull some innovation out of their backside.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: That's what's happening, but everything else looking pretty glorious because we live in la-la land, but in a good way.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We can enjoy it.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: We can enjoy the endless bailouts and the endless rally, because it's just the way the government wants it to be.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: So good morning.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Everybody Palantir is mooning this morning, are they, I think later today let's have a look at that.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: Let me have a look at the stock there.
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: Actually, are you just teasing me?
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: Are you just teasing me because you know I get excited about it?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: We are up 4.5% today.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: Does somebody know something?
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: That's what I'd like to know.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: But no earnings, of course, are out later today after market.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: And really, what's the excitement?
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Some analysts said let me show it to you here undiscovered gem.
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: Really, I thought it had been discovered, on this channel at least.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Report solid quarter says Alistair Heddoke, you want the golden path of its monetization story?
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, it'd be interesting to see whether those guys are right.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: Yay or nay.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: We'll find out in about 12 hours.
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: Yeah, full video coming out on how to trade and everything else.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: So, jerome, good morning to you.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Where are you hailing from at the moment, jerome?
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Jerome is one of my mentees who, very irritatingly, lives on a boat in the Caribbean.
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: Actually, it's not irritating at all, it's absolutely wonderful.
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: Inspiring, I think, is the language.
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: If you want to come and learn how we did a $6,000 April on about a 30K portfolio, then come and join us live tomorrow through Dick's Friends at all slash webinar.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: This was the April of trading for me and you can see I was exceptionally lazy.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: Tuesday seems to be the day when I set up trades and then I get very, very lazy for the rest of the week.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Probably going to be the same again for that today and this month, this month.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: So check that out If you want to join us on that.
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: And we are on the wrong, we're on the wrong.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Hmm, interesting, we're on the wrong thingy-ma-jiggy as well.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So let me just pull up the right blackboard for you here so that I've got my data at my fingertips.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Here she is.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Here she is in all her beauty.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: I've found the link and there we go, loading.
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: Isn't that exciting?
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: Just south of Carolina looking for bigger boats.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Sister Rona.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: Okay, that's a bit of a different spot for you, but still not too bad.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: I hear A bit, but sounds nice.
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: All right, a couple of things to understand and be aware of today before you pummel me with questions in the live chat.
• 3:06
  Speaker 1: Ctas what the heck are CTAs?
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: These are the dumb algo funds, the funds that just follow the market no matter what.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: And algo funds and those guys are basically, they're pretty much going to sell.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: We're here, they're basically going to sell no matter what, which is quite nice and fairly rare.
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: So it's pretty good news, pretty good news from that point of view.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: And look at the positioning of CTAs in US stocks right, we're here and we have been up there for pretty much the whole year.
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: So there is a lot of buying upside actually from algo funds, which is a good thing.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So this is bullish.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: Item number two, and this is the blackout thing.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: So at the moment, about half of the S&P 500 companies are buying back their own shares.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: Again, thanks to Apple, we're going to have the biggest buyback year ever.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: And that means what?
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Well, it's bullish for stocks.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: Less stocks out there means you own a bigger chunk of the business if you just hold on to your stocks, so that's going to go back up to about 100% by about the third week of May, so 23rd of May we're basically fully in business, and that's going to be really nice and supportive here as we head into the tail end of May.
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: And here is another thing that's supportive, thanks to Bloomberg when you get to, when does a rally peak?
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: A rally tends to peak when tech takes over the leadership of the rally, and we had the same thing happening again in March, where purple tech was the biggest sector growing in the S&P.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: And where are we right now?
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: Communication services have taken over.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that little brown bit there, and the last time they did that there, in November last year, we got a really, really, really nice rally up right, so it could be a nice indicator.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: It's the same thing there.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: It tends to be the missing piece between tech rallies seems to be communication services, so that's pretty good news.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: We are still, though, on the 50-day moving average lines, and we need to watch out for those.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I touched on that on Sunday.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: If you happen to tune in, and if you look at, say, qqq, and you pop on a 50-day moving average line, which is that yellow line here, you can see we've just peaked our nose over the top of it, ever so slightly pre-market.
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: We break above the 50-day today and close above the 50-day.
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: Then the party's on the rally is on Hallelujah.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: So that could be good and that would actually basically take us back to the 450.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: It would take us back to all-time highs.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: That's the way I see that.
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: So I think today is a momentous day in markets.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: We survived the Apple sell off today.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: Then everything looks pretty good.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: We're also expecting more rate cuts now.
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: We're now expecting three.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: Could I have a different color pen?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: We're now expecting three cuts this year and then I don't know, sorry the other way around three cuts in 2025 and about and two cuts in in in 2024.
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: So you know, we could live with that.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: We could live with that.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Economic growth is collapsing, the inflation data is coming a little bit higher and that's obviously something to watch out for.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: That's basically the risk for the year, right?
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: It's like does inflation data peak up?
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: If it does, then that's not so wonderful, but at the moment I think the economy is slowing down quite nicely here.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: This is quite insightful if you're a Microsoft shareholder.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Just generally in big tech, the forward-looking earnings, the EPS, the earnings per share are basically going sideways and when that happens, the stock goes sideways.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: You see, here it was sideways Stock basically went sideways, sideways, sideways.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: So we're again in that period, which is why Microsoft is going nowhere in particular, and again, that's something we can make money out of right.
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: We can make money out of sideways action if you know how.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: If you want to know how, come and join me tomorrow.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: Links down below Felix Franzelog slash webinar.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I'll give you my entire strategy for free there.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: Average returns for July Summer months are usually pretty good for the NASDAQ, if you look at that.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: Generally pretty good Four and a half percent on average.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: May and June a little bit more flat, but the summer is typically where we rally.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: Not entirely sure why, maybe because all the bankers are on holiday and therefore no one's shorting the bloody market.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: But if you look at this, this makes me feel pretty giddy.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: Inside, the amount of capex, capital expenditure as an investment, not into bonds but into capital, computers and growth and R&D by the big tech stocks is the biggest, or it's expected to be the biggest it's ever been 2024, 2025 here monster spending by those guys and typically that leads to more growth and typically that leads to higher margin.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Typically that leads to more profits down the road, because they're actually pretty good investors, these companies the Metas, the Amazons, the Microsofts, the Googles so there's something to look forward to there.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: And where does that money go?
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: Well, a lot of it, of course, goes on chips and AI and semiconductors and everything related to that, but that could keep driving this rally here very, very nicely.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: And if you look at the Magnificent Five, as they're now called, who's left?
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: As they're now called, who's left, who's the lag out that we might want to pick up as a bargain basement hunt?
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: It is, of course, jeff Bezos' Amazon.
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: Now, he has sold a lot of shares this year, so that's perhaps something to think about, what he thinks about this being a peak.
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: But yeah, amazon definitely being a lag out here for the rally.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: So it could be something to look at.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: And then for the week, lots happening this week.
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: But big things happening this week are, of course, after close today, palantir earnings, disney tomorrow, ferrari tomorrow, kellogg's, if you care, upstart Rivian Could be a bit of a kick in the EV sector there.
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: Shopify Uber on Wednesday morning that's a big one.
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: Airbnb also Wednesday that's a fairly big one.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Robinhood seems to be gathering some attention, and what else for the rest of the week?
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Anything else?
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: We care about Dropbox, so-so I don't think I really care about the rest of the week.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: So there are a few there Fiverr, hyatt, amc.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: I'm sure a lot of people care about that.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: But yeah, it's another fairly big earnings week lift here as well.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: That's a big one.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: So fairly big companies still reporting this week so we could get a bit of it could get interesting.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Lucid also reporting today.
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: Interesting to see if they have anything to report at all.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: But pre-market looking pretty good.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Apple's sell-off is very moderate, considering that Papa Buffett has sold 0.3% sorry, 13% of its holdings $20 billion worth, and the moment we're trading merely at the bottom of Friday's trading range.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: So that whole gap up here, that whole thing here, that was the gap that's still there.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: That's still alive and kicking, and if we look at the live chart here, I would imagine when the market opens we might go down a little lower.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: That would be my feeling on this.
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: We've done it at the beginning of the session, the pre-market session, right, you see that sell-off there from 183 to 182 or 181, but recovering since.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: So we'll see, and with the indicator of all indicators be out there.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: We just had a chat actually with development team.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: It's still in the works.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: It works very nicely, but there's still some stability issues around the chat and so on that the guys are working on.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Ross says look at options resistance.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: That's always a smart thing to do.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: You can do that with OptionsWatch and listen to Fed data this week.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Yeah, there is a bit of Fed speak this week as well to definitely be aware of.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: We look in OptionsWatch.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: We are very nicely above the 5,100.
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we're 27 points above that and a little bit more pre-market.
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: And what does that mean?
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: This, by the way, is getting fixed too.
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: We have a new design for the chart coming up that'll fix that kind of a clicking around thingy.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: But yeah, our support line sits here at 5,100.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: So we are nicely above that and that's good right.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: That gives us some cushion, it gives us some support.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: We hit 5,100 again.
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: It's actually supportive, buying kicks in.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: But right now we need to break through 5,150.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: That's the resistance.
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to make a note of that,150 is resistance Can you hear that?
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: And 5,100 is support.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: Put that on hand here.
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: 5,100 is support.
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: So those are the two kind of critical levels to look at for the week ahead.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Why do some great companies with perfect numbers, such as Philip Morris and Waters, have such terrible Piotrowski scores?
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: You have to ask Monsieur Piotrowski, who wasn't Russian, by the way.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: He was American apparently, although the name kind of makes me want to say it as Piotrowski.
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not sure, honestly, I don't think I wouldn't.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: I don't use it that much.
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: It's sort of a value investor score thing, right, but I never I couldn't say I've selected a stock on the basis of it.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: I just see it pop up sometimes and then it's kind of interesting.
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: Will there be another UK training session, please?
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Please?
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: Says Exeter Motorworks.
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: None scheduled at present, but I appreciate the suggestion.