Latest / Diplomacy and International Relations / Denmark's Pivot from F-16s to Wind Turbines - Diplomatic Relations with the Middle East

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Denmark's Pivot from F-16s to Wind Turbines - Diplomatic Relations with the Middle East · Diplomacy and International Relations

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  Hello and welcome back to Diplomacy and International
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  Relations by Bastian Freiburg. Whether you are a student of
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  political science, a foreign policy professional, or you
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  know, just someone trying to understand why the world looks
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  the way it does today, we are really glad to have you here.
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  It is great to be back and we have quite a file to get through
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  today. We really do.
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  Today we are going to dissect what I think is one of the most
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  interesting paradoxes in modern and international relations.
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  We were looking at Denmark. Right now, if you ask the
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  average person to describe Denmark, they'll probably say
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  something like small, peaceful, progressive bicycles, good
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  pastries. The classic Nordic modeling.
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  Exactly. But if you look at the actual
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  source material regarding the Middle Eastover the last 25
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  years, that image, it falls apart completely.
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  It really does. You don't see a pacifist nation.
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  You see a country that has been one of the most aggressive,
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  militarized Western actors in the region, often more hawkish
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  than its neighbors and sometimes even stepping out ahead of the
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  United States. It is a massive contradiction.
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  We tend to group the Scandinavian countries together
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  as these, you know, humanitarian superpowers.
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  But when you dig into the history and the strategy papers
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  we have in front of us, Denmark really stands apart.
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  They have been running a completely different operating
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  system than, say, Sweden or Norway when it comes to the
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  Middle East. And to figure out why, we have a
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  serious stack of documents to unpack.
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  We're pulling from historical journals on the 18th century
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  Arabia Felix expedition. We have strategic analysis
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  papers from the Danish Institute for International Studies.
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  That's DAIS and comparative reports from the Swedish
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  Institute of International Affairs.
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  And maybe most significantly, we have a direct transcript from
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  AUN Security Council debate dated January 2025, which gives
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  us a real time look at where things stand.
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  Before we get into the weeds, just a quick note to our
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  listeners. If you enjoy this kind of
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  There is a link in the description if you want to
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  check. That out.
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  So what is the road map for today?
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  What are we tracing? OK, so we are going to trace the
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  arc of Denmark's engagement. We're going to look at three, I
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  think, very distinct eras. First, the era of scientific
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  curiosity in the 1700s. Second, the era of super
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  Atlanticism and war in the 2000s.
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  And finally, the era we are entering now, climate diplomacy.
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  So from the microscope to the F16 and then back to the wind
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  turbine. That is exactly it.
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  Let's start with the microscope. 1761 The Arabia Felix
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  Expedition. This feels like something out of
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  an adventure novel. It really does.
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  King Frederick Sebia commissions a team to explore Happy Arabia,
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  what we now call Yemen. It does feel cinematic, but the
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  intellectual conflict here is what really matters for our
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  discussion. You have two competing
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  motivations for this trip. Right from the start, the king
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  wants prestige. He he wants to map Terra
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  incognita. You know, it's the
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  Enlightenment. Knowledge is power.
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  But then you have Johann David Michaelis.
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  The Theologian. The theologian right and
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  Michaelis essentially hijacks the academic framework of the
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  mission. He isn't interested in
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  geography. He wants to prove the Bible is
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  literally true. Wow.
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  He sends these scientists into the desert with a list of
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  questions that were, well, frankly, they were ridiculous.
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  Give us an example. He wanted to know if the tides
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  in the Red Sea were strong enough to have parted for Moses.
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  Seriously. Yeah, he wanted to know if the
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  stars shone brighter in Arabia because the scriptures mentioned
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  the brightness of the heavens. He was looking for miracles, not
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  data. So you have this clash between
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  scientific observation and religious dogma before they even
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  leave Copenhagen. And it ends in tragedy. 6 men go
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  out. A philologist, A botanist, A
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  physician and artist, a servant and a surveyor.
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  Only one makes it back alive. Karsten Nieber.
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  Karsten Nieber. Karsten the the math guy.
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  The math guy and that it's so crucial.
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  The historical journals highlight this profound
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  difference between Nieber and his colleague, the linguist von
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  Haven. Von Haven represents the worst
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  kind of European arrogance. He despised the locals,
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  complained about the food, refused to adapt.
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  He bought into the whole superiority narrative
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  completely. Whereas Nieber seems to have
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  cracked the code of cross cultural engagement just by
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  being humble. He realized that to get accurate
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  data to map the terrain and understand the culture, he had
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  to sort of disappear. He adopted Arab dress.
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  He learned the local dialects, not just the classical Arabic of
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  the books. There is this great anecdote in
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  the journals where he describes riding a camel alongside a local
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  guy just sharing a simple meal and talking.
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  Just connecting. Yeah, he view the Arabs not as
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  subjects to be judged, but as a civilization to be understood.
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  And that approach yielded the first accurate maps of Cairo and
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  the first detailed sketches of Persepolis.
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  It was really the foundation of European scientific knowledge of
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  the region. It was the curious observer at
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  its best. No political agenda, no desire
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  to change the regime or convert the population, just an attempt
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  to see reality as it was. Which makes the jump to our next
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  era so jarring. We are fast forwarding over 2
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  centuries. The Cold War is over, the Soviet
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  threat is gone, and suddenly Denmark transforms from the
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  curious observer into the loyal ally.
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  The sources use the term super Atlanticism.
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  It's a strategy where Denmark decides to align its security
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  policy with the United States, and the text is explicit here no
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  matter what. No matter what is a heavy phrase
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  in diplomacy, Usually you leave yourself an exit ramp.
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  Yeah, here. And to see how radical this is,
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  you just have to look at the comparison with Sweden that the
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  Swedish Institute of International Affairs provides.
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  It's night and day. Take the issue of Palestine.
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  Sweden recognizes the state of Palestine in 2014.
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  They see themselves as a moral superpower, you know, supporting
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  the underdog. And Denmark, Denmark refuses
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  recognition. They stick rigidly to the US
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  line. We supported 2 state solution
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  theoretically, but not yet. Or look at UNRWA, the agency for
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  Palestinian refugees. Right when the Trump
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  administration cut funding, Sweden stepped in with millions
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  to fill the gap. Denmark.
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  They supported the cuts. That is a significant difference
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  it. Is you had Danish politicians
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  from the center left and the center right arguing that
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  refugees should just move out of the camps.
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  They were essentially reading from the US State Department's
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  talking points at the time. So the question is why?
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  Why does a socially progressive welfare state act like a hawk on
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  the global stage? It points back to the early
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  1990s in the European Union. Denmark voted no to the
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  Maastricht Treaty initially. I remember that.
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  Yeah, you latch on to the United States.
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  Denmark needed a security guarantee, so they paid their
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  premiums in blood and loyalty. Former U.S. ambassador Rufus
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  Gifford is quoted in the material saying that when he
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  went to the Danish Foreign Ministry with a request, they
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  were already working on it. Wow, Denmark became a first
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  mover. So when the US went into
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  Afghanistan. Denmark was there immediately.
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  Iraq. Denmark was there.
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  Libya in 2000. 11 Denmark sent F sixteens and off.
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  They did this with very little domestic debate compared to
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  other European nations. The activist foreign policy
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  became a consensus. Being a good ally to Washington
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  was the supreme goal. But this aggressive posture,
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  this transition from mapping the desert to bombing it, it
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  eventually triggered A backlash, right?
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  You can't interfere in a volatile region without getting
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  burned. And that brings us to the
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  culture wars, the cartoon crisis of 2005.
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  Most people remember the headlines, embassies burning
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  protests. But looking at the analysis, it
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  seems like a collision between Denmark's domestic self-image
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  and its new global reality. That's a great way to put it.
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  Jillian's Poston publishes caricatures of the Prophet
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  Muhammad. They frame it as a debate on
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  self censorship. But in the Middle East, it's
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  seen as a deliberate provocation from a country that already has
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  troops on the ground in Iraq. And the Prime Minister at the
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  time, Anders Fall Rasmussen, took a very hard line stance.
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  He did. He refused to even meet with
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  ambassadors from Muslim majority countries.
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  His argument was pure principle. I cannot apologize for the Free
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  Press. It was free speech absolutism.
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  Exactly. We don't compromise on our
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  values. But let's look at the timeline.
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  That was 2005. Now look at 2023.
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  The sources detail a new Danish law banning the improper
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  treatment of objects of significant religious
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  significance. In plain English, a ban on
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  burning the Quran. Exactly.
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  In less than 20 years, Denmark went from we will never
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  apologize for speech to We are passing a law to stop you from
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  offending religious sentiments. The legal reviews in our source
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  stack are pretty scathing about this law.
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  They argue it violates something called the Rabat Plan of Action.
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  Can you break that down for us? Yeah, so the Rabat plan, it's
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  Aun framework on human rights, and the core idea is pretty
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  simple. It says laws should protect
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  people. People not idea.
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  Exactly, people from incitement to violence.
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  But they shouldn't, you know, protect ideologies or abstract
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  concepts from insult. Human rights are for humans, not
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  for books. So by banning the burning of a
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  book, Denmark is technically prioritizing the protection of a
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  religious object over the right to expression.
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  Yes, and the criticism came from all sides.
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  The far right called it a surrender to Islamists.
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  The left called it a betrayal of civil liberties.
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  But the government's logic, and this is the crucial pivot, was
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  security. They explicitly said the threat
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  level was too high. The Danish intelligence services
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  warned that the burnings were making Denmark a priority target
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  for terrorism again. So the loyal ally realized that
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  being on the front lines of the culture war was becoming too
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  expensive. They chose safety over liberty.
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  It's a moment of distinct pragmatism.
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  Speaking of pragmatism, let's look at the present day.
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  We have this transcript from the UN Security Council dated
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  January 20th, 2025. This document feels like a
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  snapshot of a world in transition.
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  It really is. Denmark is sitting on the
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  council. Ambassador Christina Marcus
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  Lassen is speaking, and the context she is describing is
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  heavy. Yeah, we're looking at a
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  ceasefire between Israel and Hamas after 15 months of
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  grinding war. There's a detail in there that
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  caught me off guard, the mention of the fall of the Assad regime
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  in Syria. That is a massive detail just
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  dropped into the text. It implies a total restructuring
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  of the regional power balance. Assad falling.
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  New leadership in Lebanon. The Middle East is being
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  reshaped. And in this chaotic new reality,
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  how does Denmark sound? Do they still sound like that
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  super Atlanticist warrior of the 2000s?
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  Not really. The tone has shifted.
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  Ambassador Lassen is still thanking the US, so the alliance
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  holds, but the focus is overwhelmingly on unhindered
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  humanitarian assistance and international humanitarian law.
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  I see she is calling for A2 state solution not just as a
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  slogan but as an urgent necessity to lay the foundations
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  for peace. It sounds Nordic again.
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  It does. It feels like a return to the
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  traditional Danish values of mediation and aid.
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  It suggests that the era of military intervention, thinking
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  you can bomb the region into democracy, is over.
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  They are looking for a new toolkit.
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  And that segues perfectly into the final part of our analysis.
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  If the military toolkit is broken and the culture war
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  toolkit is too dangerous, what's left?
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  Green Diplomacy. This is the strategic pivot for
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  the next decade. The report from the Danish
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  Institute for International Studies on Climate Security is
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  fascinating. Here, it frames climate change
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  not just as an environmental issue, but as a hard security
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  threat. The data is terrifying.
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  The Middle East and North Africa are warming at twice the global
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  average. You have water scarcity in
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  Jordan, global heat waves in Iraq.
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  These aren't just inconveniences, they're engines
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  of conflict. Right when the water runs out,
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  people move. Migration.
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  Exactly. And migration is the third rail
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  of Danish politics. No government in Copenhagen can
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  survive a massive influx of refugees.
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  So, the logic goes, if we want to stop migration, we have to
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  stop the climate collapse in the Middle East.
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  So instead of sending F sixteens, we send wind turbines
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  and water pumps. We send engineers, the report
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  calls it strategic sector cooperation.
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  Denmark is looking to partner with countries you wouldn't
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  expect, like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
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  That seems controversial, partnering with oil states on
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  green energy. It is.
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  Critics will say it's greenwashing autocracies, but
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  the analysis argues it's necessary.
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  These countries have the capital, they have ambitious net
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  0 targets because they know their oil economy has an
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  expiration date. And Denmark has the technology.
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  Denmark has the technology. It's a transaction.
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  It is a transaction. One that allows Denmark to stay
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  engaged in the region without the baggage of invasion.
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  It leverages what Denmark is actually good at, it's soft
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  power with a hard security objective.
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  It's almost like we've come full circle.
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  We started with Nieberg the scientist, trying to understand
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  the environment. We went through a period of
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  trying to force our will on the region militarily.
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  And now we're back to science and technology, trying to save
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  the environment, to save ourselves.
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  It's a compelling narrative arc, but it leaves us with a
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  difficult question, one that the experts in these papers keep
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  coming back to. Is this a proactive choice by
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  Denmark or is it just adaptation?
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  The small state theory. Right.
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  The theory that small states don't really have independent
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  foreign policies, they just seek shelter.
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  First Denmark sought economic shelter in the EU, then security
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  shelter with the US military. Now, as the US becomes more
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  unpredictable and the climate crisis accelerates, are they
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  seeking a new kind of shelter? A green alliance.
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  Perhaps, Or maybe they're just trading in the only currency
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  they have left. In the 2000's the currency of
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  influence was troops. In 2025 the currency is carbon
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  reduction. Denmark is a trader nation.
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  They're just trading with the market demands.
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  It suggests that for a country of 6 million people, sovereignty
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  and foreign policy is a bit of an illusion.
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  You're always reacting to the giants.
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  But you can choose how you react, and I think the shift
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  from Nieber to far Rasmussen to Lassen shows a learning curve.
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  They learned that observation, like with Niever, was safe but
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  passive. They learned that intervention,
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  like in Iraq, was active but dangerous.
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  Now, with this climate approach, they're trying to find a middle
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  ground, active engagement that stabilizes the region rather
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  than destabilizing it. From the desert sands of Yemen
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  in 1761 to the high tech solar parks of Saudi Arabia in 20-30,
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  it is quite a journey. And one that is far from over.
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  As the region changes, with Assad gone, with new leadership
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  in Lebanon, Denmark, we'll have to pivot again.
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  We will definitely be watching. Thank you for guiding us through
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  this stack of sources. It's complex, but I feel like
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  we've connected the dots. It was a pleasure to analyze
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  this with you. And thank you for listening to
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  Diplomacy and International Relations by Bastian Freiborg.
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  If this investigation gave you a new perspective, please take a
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  second to rate the podcast 5 stars.
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