Latest / Winning Cures Everything | College Football / Week 2 Chaos: Home dogs barking?

Transcript

Week 2 Chaos: Home dogs barking? · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, we had some crazy results in week one,
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: but that is out of the way now, and we've
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: got to move to week number two. Today we're going
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: over the top ten best games of week two, and
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: we're making picks. So let's get to it. Welcome in,
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Winning Cures, everything. It's a college football podcast. I'm your host,
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Gary Seegers, at GaryWCE on all the different socials. And
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: I do have to wonder if all of you are
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: experiencing the same thing. allergies, and whatnot that I am.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: If my voice is a little low, I was out
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: of town for most of the weekend, and now I'm
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: back recording at least this pod tomorrow night, or I
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: guess the night that you'll be watching this. I will
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: be watching Foo Fighters open for ACDC. So, there is
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: a possibility that I will get my next 15 video
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: out very, very soon. But it may be the same
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: day that we have Three Dog Thursday with TJ and Jason.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: So we'll see if I can get that out this week.
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: If not, I will put all of the numbers up
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. You can be a member
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: over there if you want to. Five bucks per month
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: or 50 bucks for the year if you want to
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: support the show. I would appreciate it. All right. Let's
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: go ahead and take a look at the record thus far.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: And here's what we're looking at. So far, official show
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: picks 20 and 13. So over 60% against the number.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: The model is also 20-13. Underdog picks on the year,
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: I'm 6-6. I love talking about that. Yeah, my 10
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: best picks last week went 6-4. The model was 5-5 there.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: My next 15, I was 9-6 on the show, but
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: the model was 11-4 on that. So week 0, of course, 5-3.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: on the show, 4-4 for the model. As you know,
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: sometimes I go against the model. But, alas, it is
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: what it is. Let's not waste a lot of time.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: We are going to go relatively quickly this evening. Let's
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: move to game number one. All right, game number one,
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Ohio State at Texas. This one, of course, on Saturday, 6.30 p.m.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone. You guys know what's up
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: on ABC News. It's a DKR Texas Memorial stadium in Austin.
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: I got my notes ready to go. Let's go ahead
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: and dive into it. Texas is a one and a
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: half point favorite with a total of 48 and a half.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: My number currently per the model has Ohio state by 0.3 points. So, uh,
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that means I've got a wrong team favored, even if
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: both of them are just hanging around a pick them.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is, this is a fascinating, fascinating game. Um,
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Betting trends on this, Texas is a favorite of less
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: than seven at home, 0-3 against the spread. Now, it
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: is a small sample size, but 0-3 is a pretty
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: big red flag here for Texas backers. Ohio State, at
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: one point, they could never beat SEC competition. Now, in
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: the last five games, they are 4-1 against the spread
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: against SEC teams. They are 3-0 against the spread against
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: SEC teams in the last two seasons. They have consistently
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: covered against SEC teams, not to mention the fact that
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Ohio State on the road, 75% in the last eight
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: road games. They are 6-2 against the spread, so something
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: to keep up with. This is a rematch of last
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: year's 14-7 Ohio State win in Columbus. It's the fourth
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: meeting in the rivalry stretch. Ohio State has won the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: last two. Arch Manning, of course, looking for revenge or
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: maybe some kind of validation. in what is likely his
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: final season in Austin. We do have a few injury
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: notes on this. Texas freshman running back Jerry Cooper, he
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: left the week one opener with an ankle injury. Ohio
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: State's Bo Jackson, he was questionable with a shoulder issue
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: that was entering week one against Ball State. So just
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: keep an eye out for something like that. Whoever wins
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: this is probably going to take over the number one
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: ranking next week. And probably the whole CFP conversation for
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: about a month because after this, there's not a lot
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: of big games for either team. Uh, uh, all of
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: these point in the same direction. All these trends point
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: away from Texas and towards Ohio state. Now, if you
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: look at the on three full roster talent, Texas is
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: number one, Ohio state's number five. Uh, if you start
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: digging into the position groups, each position unit, uh, Quarterback
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: is better for Texas. Offensive line and defensive line, better
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: for Texas. I take that back. Ohio State's defensive line
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: is number one. Texas defense, or sorry, Ohio State's offensive
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: line is number one. Texas defensive line, number two. The
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Texas offensive line is number three. Ohio State's defensive line
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: is number six. Then you start diving into skill position,
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: et cetera. How about this? Both of them are insanely
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: talented teams. Ohio State just does not have quite the
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: amount of returning production, even adjusted returning production that Texas does.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: I don't trust the coaching matchup. What I do trust
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: is my model. Ryan Day has kind of run circles
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: around other coaches. Now granted, last season, Kurt Cignetti, that
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: was the whole thing. And they do have a new
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: offensive coordinator with Arthur Smith there. But there were some
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: holes in that Texas game, especially their defense. Texas State
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: had a lot of success early on offense. And if
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: you think that Ryan Day and company have not been
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: paying attention to that, I don't know what to tell you.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Do I think the home atmosphere will be a lot? Yes.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Have I also seen Texas lose at home? As a favorite, yes.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: That game against Georgia a couple years ago was... I
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: don't even know how to explain that one away. But
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: that's the kind of atmosphere that we're looking at. I
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: can get Ohio State as a dog here. I will
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: take it. Give me Ohio State plus one and a half.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: I think they win the game outright. Obviously, I don't
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: need the point and a half, but I will take it.
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: I like Ohio State to win this ballgame. Game number
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: two here. Oklahoma traveling up to Ann Arbor. This one,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: big noon kick. And we could spend a very long
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: time talking about how Michigan was able to come away
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: with a win against Western Michigan. We're not going to
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: do that right now. What we've got to figure out
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: is if what we saw in Week 1 for Michigan
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: is what we will get in Week 2 and on.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I don't know that that's necessarily the case. It was
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a big look-ahead spot for Michigan last week. They probably
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: played very vanilla. The offense does look a little bit lost,
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: but this is still not great. So, what we're looking at,
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: this is big noon kick, 11 a.m. Central Time, of course,
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: on Fox. It's in Ann Arbor. It's in the big house. Oklahoma...
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: is now a 5.5-point favorite. This line has moved sharply
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: towards Oklahoma. Michigan was a 1.5-point favorite back in August.
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: This thing is Oklahoma minus 5.5, minus 6.5 in some spots.
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: The low total signals that nobody trusts Michigan's offense to
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: be able to keep pace. Betting trends here, Oklahoma as
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: a favorite of 3-plus on the road over the past
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: five years. They are 5-9 against the spread, so 36%.
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: over 14-game sample size. Oklahoma has struggled to cover Ezra
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: Chalk historically. Oklahoma's defense did well last week against UTEP, 51-0.
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: But UTEP, of course, missed some field goals. There were
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: a couple of things that could have gotten them on
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the board. Even still, Oklahoma's defense looked fantastic. Michigan, of course,
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: needed that disputed replay-aided Hail Mary in order to escape
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan. Bryce Underwood threw for just under 95 yards
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: for the game before that final drive. He turned it
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: over three times, had five turnover-worthy plays in that game.
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Whittingham confirmed that Underwood remains the starter for now, but
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: all that does is tell you that that job is
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: not locked. And if Underwood is not going to be
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: your guy, I don't know what this team is. As
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: far as entry notes, the linebacker Barham from Michigan was
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: hit with a targeting call in Week 1 that's going
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: to cost him the first half against Oklahoma, so pay
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: attention to that. Oklahoma wide receiver Jaden Gibson, he's been
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: dealing with a knee issue since camp. He's questionable for this.
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two, Oklahoma won last year
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: 24-13 in Norman, and Oklahoma has won the last two
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: matchups between these two teams. Michigan has a really... rough
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: Big Ten schedule coming up after this. They need a
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: win here. And they need their quarterback situation to figure
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: it out. Right? They got to figure out this quarterback thing.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: You start looking at on three full roster talent. Michigan
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: number 13, Oklahoma number 14. You start looking at adjusted
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: returning production. Both of these teams top 15 in the country.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: When you start looking just at everything overall. Michigan is
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: top 20-ish offensive line and defensive line. Oklahoma, offensive line
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: number 26 in the country. Their defensive line is number
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: 12 in the country. I think there is a world
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: where it could be better than that, but even still.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: There's not a huge roster advantage at any position for
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: either one of these teams other than John Mateer at
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: quarterback with the offensive coordinator Ben Arbuckle. That's awesome. But
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: I'm curious to see what Jay Hill is going to
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: have for that defense. What are they going to be
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: able to have ready this week? Because I feel like
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the defense was pretty vanilla last week against Western Michigan.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: And they only kept the ball, Michigan's offense, for like
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: 20-ish minutes, if I'm not mistaken. So Western Michigan was
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: able to hold on to the football and and at
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: least get 13 points on the board, which is much
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: more than a MAAC team should be scoring against Michigan.
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: Even still, how much of that was week one don't
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: show anything so you can get ready for Oklahoma in
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: week two because that is a much bigger game? That's
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: the issue with those bye games, right? Against the directional schools,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: you don't want to show too much, but also, if
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: you don't show enough, you can lose them. And if
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: you lose it, it is a much bigger deal. than
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: anything else. Now, granted, Michigan did walk away with the win,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: but Oklahoma looked significantly better. Significantly better. My model has
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: Michigan minus 0.3. Part of that is because I'm not
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: going to completely throw out my priors just based on
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: one week of games. Nothing is confirmed yet. We could
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: maybe talk about LSU and Clemson being confirmed as to
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: what those are, but even still, it is one game.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: An incredibly small sample size. What can we take from this? Oklahoma,
• 12:33
  Speaker 1: we're going to go with the 6.5 number because it's
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: out at several books right now. If I've got this
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: close to a pick-em, I'm going to go with Michigan.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Do I feel great about it? No. Absolutely not. But
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: as far as an official show pick, not my official bet,
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: but as far as the show is concerned, I'm going
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: to go with Michigan and trust that they are more
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: motivated and more ready to play this Saturday than they
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: were last Saturday. And I'm curious about John Mateer against
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: a more talented, better defense than he has seen in
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: quite a while. So we'll see what happens with this.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: But give me Michigan plus 6.5 at home. I think
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: they can hang around. I don't know that they win,
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: but I think they can keep it within 6.5. Game
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: number three, 5 p.m. Central Time, God's time zone. This
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: one on USA Network. Memphis goes to Boise State. And
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: what a matchup we've got here. Boise, of course, almost
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: able to pull the upset in Eugene last week. how
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: much of the Memphis game is a letdown from that game,
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: where you thought you had the ball game. You were
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: up 17-7 early, really close to pulling that thing off. Boise,
• 13:59
  Speaker 1: an 8.5 point favorite here. Total is 54.5. The total
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: has come down two points. I mean, that's good gracious.
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: This number is kind of all over the place. Let's
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: talk trends. Let's talk trends. This one, of course, at
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: Albertson Stadium in Boise. Boise is a favorite of less
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: than 14 at home. They are 4-0 against the spread
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: in their last four in that role. Perfect record laying
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: single-digit to low-double-digit numbers at home. But Memphis, as an
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: underdog in the last six, they are 4-2 against the spread.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: They have not been dogs very often, but they have
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: generally covered when they're catching points. So you got two
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: trends that are kind of going right at each other here. Um,
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: the storyline is pretty easy. Like the winner of this
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: is in the driver's seat for the G6 playoff berth, right?
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: Boise with that week one, almost a stunner against Oregon.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Memphis is two and oh now, and they won at
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: UNLV who is the mountain West favorite. UNLV of course,
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: getting the win on the road at Hawaii over the weekend. Um,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Boise right now is looking to snap an 11-game losing
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: streak against Power 4 opponents. Now, granted, that's irrelevant here
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: because Memphis is G6, but Boise has also dropped three
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: straight to American teams. If you think about the opening
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: of last year, they got demolished by South Florida. They
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: lost to Memphis in 2023 in the Liberty Bowl, and
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: then they lost to UCF in 2021. That was... I
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: put that on the notes. Was UCF in the Big
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: 12 in 2021? What a question. Anyway, neither here nor there.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: Why this matters, of course, is the CFP stuff. You know,
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: group of six programs, two trends that are actually pulling
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: in opposite directions. This is a really competitive game this week,
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: and I think one of the most fascinating games that
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: we're going to see all weekend. You look at the
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: on three full roster talent. Memphis has more roster talent
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: than Boise. Now, they are going to be on the road.
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: It's very similar to the UNLV situation. You start looking
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: at quarterback, at the lines of scrimmage. The biggest factor
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: in this game is that Memphis' lines of scrimmage are
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: significantly better than what Boise is bringing to the table. However,
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: if you watch what Boise did to Oregon last week,
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: they were able to get pressure on that offensive line
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: of Oregon. They will probably be able to do the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: same thing against Memphis' offensive line. Of course, Memphis' number
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: 32 offensive line in the country, Boise's defense number 57.
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: As far as the Boise offensive line, number 83, and
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: the Memphis defensive line, number 42. If Memphis can affect
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: the quarterback, Maddox Madsen there, they are going to have
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: some success. My model has this Boise minus 7.2. The
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: fact that this line is 8.5, I'd feel pretty good
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: that this is not going to be a double-digit win
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: for Boise. Yes, I understand the trend is they've won
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: four straight as a less than 14-point home favorite, but
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: this is a different type of team than what Boise
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: is used to playing in the Mountain West. I think
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Memphis is absolutely geared up for this game. The reason
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that Memphis did not look so good in Boise Week
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: number one against Arkansas State, even though they won by 18,
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: it was still kind of sloppy. It was absolutely a
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: look-ahead spot. So while Boise was putting everything they could
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: into a game against Oregon last week, Memphis is prepared.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: They are ready. I fully am bought into the Charles
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Huff experience, and I think that something that travels here
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: is the Memphis running game and those lines of scrimmage.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: They can get after the passer. They can stop the run.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: I think this is going to be an incredible football game,
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: but I will side with the dog here. I will
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: agree with the model, which again has Boise minus 7.2.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: If I'm getting 8.5 points, give me the Memphis Tigers
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: plus 8.5. Game number four, and we've got another interesting
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: game here. This one in the SEC, the earliest week
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: two SEC conference game for Alabama in quite some time.
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: Alabama heads to the Bluegrass State. They are going to Kentucky.
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: And right now, Bama a 10.5 point favorite with a
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: total of 49.5. This one, 2.30 p.m. Central on ABC.
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: Very curious about this. As far as betting trends go,
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: Alabama is a favorite of 10-plus on the road. 1-4
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: against the spread over the last two seasons. That's not good. Kentucky...
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: As a dog of 7-plus over the past two seasons
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: at home, they are 3-1 against the spread. Kalen DeBoer,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: in the past five seasons as a head coach, 2-8
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a double-digit road favorite. In 10 games,
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: he has covered two times. This is a large sample
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: trend that should get people at least thinking about this.
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: DeBoer's teams have historically... struggled to cover as big road favorites.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: The storyline here, of course, Keelan Russell, he was efficient
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: in his first career start against East Carolina. 18-30, 256 yards,
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: plus a team-high 86 rushing yards. Kentucky, brand new. Brand
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: new with Kenny Minchie and the head coach, Will Stein,
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: the former Oregon offensive coordinator. They looked good against Youngstown
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: State last week, 45-13. But this is interesting. By the way,
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: first time since 2013 that Alabama has played a conference
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: game this early in the season. Injury notes, nothing really interesting.
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: All that big. I'm curious. I'm curious about... I don't
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: think anybody really is out for either one of these teams.
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: This is a trap game kind of situation. Right? Alabama
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: fans are kind of overlooking Kentucky a little bit. The
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: number is 10.5 in favor of Alabama. My number on this...
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: has Alabama minus 9.7. So the model likes Alabama to win,
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: but not by as much as the actual spread is
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: right now. This is a new coach with a hopeful
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: home crowd, a lot of energy, more than likely going
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: to be inside Kroger Field in Lexington. Alabama, you know,
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: second week of the season, still got some things to
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: clean up. And this is an unfamiliar scheme that Stein runs.
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: You know, kind of that Oregon style, which it's not
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: like Kalen DeBoer and company are not familiar with that.
• 21:21
  Speaker 1: It's just been a little while. This is, like, they
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: need some prep here. Alabama does. DeBoer, 2-8 in this
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: exact double-digit road favorite spot, and the fact that my
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: model does not think that they're going to cover that
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I took East Carolina to cover against Alabama last week.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: It was sloppy, but Bama got the cover. I feel
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: good about Kentucky being able to kind of hang in
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: the spot, do some things that DeBoer and Grubb and
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: Kane Womack are not going to really be able to
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: know about. As far as the biggest advantage that Kentucky
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: has on the field is their offensive and defensive line. Kentucky,
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: the number seven offensive line unit in the country, Bama's
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: defensive line, number 36. Kentucky's defensive line is number 13.
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: Alabama's offensive line, number 40. There will be spots that
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Kentucky can take advantage of. I'm very interested because there's
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: not a lot of returning production for either one of
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: these teams. Alabama, number 82. Kentucky, number 99 in adjusted
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: returning production. But I do think that There's some ways
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: that Kentucky can hang in this thing. As far as
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: overall talent goes, Alabama No. 3, Kentucky No. 33. I
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: think at the end of the day, that will win out.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: But you've got two pretty inexperienced quarterbacks here. You've got
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: two programs that are not super familiar with each other.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I'm curious. I think this is going to be a
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: tight ballgame. The double-digit spread is too much. Give me
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: Kentucky plus 10.5. Are you tired of sore knees or
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: joints slowing you down? GoSleeves uses built-in kinesiology tape technology
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: to give you support, reduce pain, and help you recover faster.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: Use code WCE for 15% off over at GoSleeves.com. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: and more. The latest WCE merch is now available. Support
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: and rep your favorite college football show today. Just visit winningcureseverything.com
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: slash stores. Game number five, this one on Saturday, September 12th,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: this one 11 a.m. Central Time. And that means that's
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: a 9 a.m. body clock game for the Oregon Ducks.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: Makes it a little bit interesting. This one's on ESPN.
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater. The Oregon Ducks at the
• 23:56
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State Cowboys. Right now, Oregon a 22.5 point favorite
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: with a total of 57.5 as far as betting trends go.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: Oregon is a favorite of 14-plus on the road. They
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: are 4-2 against the spread in the last six games. Solid,
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: but not an overwhelming cover rate as big road chalk.
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: Oregon survived a genuine scare last week. They trailed Boise
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: State 17-7 in the first half. And then, you know,
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: DeCorey and Moore had a big touchdown catch. Dante Moore
• 24:29
  Speaker 1: threw for 378 yards and three touchdowns. Oregon committed 10 penalties.
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State, meanwhile, was absolutely atrocious in Eric Morris' debut.
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: They lost to Tulsa 24-10, and Tulsa kind of bullied
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: them around a little bit. I'm curious if Oregon is
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: going to be able to do that, because Oregon could
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: not bully Boise State last week. And this one, of course,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: a 9 a.m. body clock game. Oregon's relatively used to
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: this by now. They have dealt with this a few times,
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: but the spread this week assumes that Oregon fixes their mistakes.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: And the Oklahoma State week one situation, if that's really
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: what this team is, then okay. However, if Oregon's sloppiness
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: is more than just a one-week blip, the dog with
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the points is live here. Just because Oklahoma State only
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: put up 10 points against Tulsa on the road, Again,
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: last week was a look-ahead spot. A bunch of those
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: guys on that tee, it wasn't a revenge game for
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State per se. There were not a lot of
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: guys that were playing on the field for Oklahoma State
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: on Saturday that played for Oklahoma State last year. So
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: they didn't know anything about losing to Tulsa or whatever.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: It was the game that was in the way before
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: they got to play against Oregon at home. which is
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: why I don't move these numbers all that crazy between
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: week one and week two. You give me two games
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: where all of a sudden this offense looks like it
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: can't move anything, even though they brought all those dudes
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: from North Texas, then we might have a problem. But
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: as of right now, I'm not going to move the
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: numbers too crazily. And same thing with Oregon. I still
• 26:27
  Speaker 1: think Oregon is a fantastic football team. Ten penalties is not,
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: you know, championship team type of stuff, but you can
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: absolutely see, based on a two-game sample size, more of
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: what these teams are about than what you got in
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: week one. So, it's the first real gut check for Oregon, right?
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Same thing for Oklahoma State. Come out, show that you
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: have improved from week one to week two, which coaches
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: do say that the most improvement you will see all
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: season is from week one to week two. Let's see
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: what that looks like. Um, my number on this again,
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: Oregon's favored by 22 and a half. My number has
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: it Oregon minus 15.6. That's a lot. That's a lot
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: of difference. Um, I mean, we're talking like a touchdown difference.
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: Do I feel great about it? No. Uh, You can't
• 27:30
  Speaker 1: look at any Oklahoma State betting trends or anything right
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: now because this is not even close to the same team.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Not even close. I'm curious about Eric Morris and what
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: he's going to do this week to kind of draw
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: something up against the Ducks. This Oregon defense is pretty awesome. Like,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: pretty awesome. But let's see about the defense coordinator. Remember,
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: this is a new offensive coordinator, new offensive, or sorry,
• 28:04
  Speaker 1: new defensive coordinator as well for Oregon. Let's see if
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: maybe last week was just kind of a fluke. And
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: maybe the same thing for Oklahoma State, because they still
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: got Drew Mustermaker, a quarterback. They still got some skill guys.
• 28:19
  Speaker 1: I'm intrigued, and I will go with the home team
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: as the dog here, getting more than three touchdowns. Yes,
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: last year, Oregon beat them to a pulp. Again, it
• 28:31
  Speaker 1: is a different team. I think they'll be pretty excited
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: about this. We'll see what happens. We'll see what happens.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: But as for me, uh, there's not really a position
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: unit on the field that Oklahoma State has an advantage at.
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: Maybe they're linebackers against the Oregon running backs. Is that
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: really a thing? Maybe. Uh, But I'm going to need
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Oregon to prove it to me, and I'm going to
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: need Oklahoma State to prove to me that they are god-awful,
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: which they certainly looked at in Week 1. Doesn't mean
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: that's what they're going to look like in Week 2.
• 29:12
  Speaker 1: I'll go with the dog here. Give me Oklahoma State
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: plus 22.5. Again, the model has Oregon minus 15.6. I'll
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: go Oklahoma State plus 22.5 for a show pick. Game
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: number six, El Asico. The Cy Hawk Trophy. This one
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: is awesome. Iowa State and Iowa. Iowa right now a 14.5
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: point favorite. with a total of 41.5 on it. This
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: one is at 6.30 p.m. Central Time on NBC. It's
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City. And what a fascinating game.
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: Jimmy Rogers, this is his first taste of this. So
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: I'm intrigued, of course. Betting trends, Iowa State as an
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: underdog in their last five games, 4-1 against the spread.
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: Now granted, this is a completely different team than at
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: any point when they were covering those underdog numbers. Iowa
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: has not beaten Iowa State at home since 2019. That's weird.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: That's just an odd thing. Northern Illinois 40-0. Or sorry,
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: not 40-0. That's what Iowa beat them last week, 40-0. Y'all,
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: it is so late. I'm so tired. Iowa State handled
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: Southeast Missouri State 38-10 in Jimmy Rogers' debut. This is
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: the first taste of the Cy Hawk rivalry for him.
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: Iowa State chasing a third straight win in the series.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: It's an in-state pride game. Very low totals suggest a
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: Defensive slog here. That total is 41.5, by the way.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I'm curious because 14.5 is a pretty outrageous number for
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: this rivalry, but it kind of tracks when you start
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: looking at roster talent, etc. Jimmy Rogers took this job
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: late in the cycle. Matt Campbell didn't take the Penn
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: State job for a while Iowa is number 27 in
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: all threes, full roster talent. Iowa State is number 89.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: That's a big difference. As far as quarterback goes, Iowa State,
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: the Rainer kid from Arkansas State last year, he is
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: super exciting. He's probably the best thing about this team.
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: Other than him, there's not an advantage at any other
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: position group on the field. For Iowa State. There's just
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: nothing there. Their defensive line is okay. Number 55 position
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: group in the country. But Iowa's offensive line, I've got
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: number 20. Iowa's defensive line, number 65. But Iowa State's
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: offensive line, number 72. As far as the talent goes, yeah,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: the 14.5 makes sense. My model has it Iowa minus 13.4.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: It feels like way too many points. This is always
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: a fun ball game, etc. And I do remember once
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: upon a time an Iowa win 42-3 over Iowa State.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: That was early in the Matt Campbell era. But this
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: feels a little bit different. I think we may have
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: sold Iowa State short a little too quickly. Do I
• 32:50
  Speaker 1: think they can win this game? No. Do I think
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: they can hang in this? Yes, because Iowa, as a
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: big favorite, very rarely covers anyway. Now, it's a little
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: bit different with Tim Lester as the offensive coordinator. He
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: has kind of opened up that offense a little bit.
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: But I'm intrigued in this game. I think that Iowa
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: wins it, but I don't think they can cover more
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: than two touchdowns. So I will take Iowa State to
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: be able to hang around, and we're going to see
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: some exciting play out of that quarterback, but I don't
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: think Iowa State gets the win. I think they do
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: get the cover, though, so Iowa State plus 14.5 for me.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Game number seven, we're going to College Station, Texas, and
• 33:44
  Speaker 1: the Texas A & M Fighting Aggies are hosting Arizona State.
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M right now, this one, of course,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: at 11 a.m., Central Time, God's time zone kick on ABC.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M right now at 14.5, a point
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: home favorite with a total of 51.5 on this. Betting trends,
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: A & M as a double-digit home favorite, 1-7 against
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: the spread. Now, that didn't include last week. Let's go
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: on and include that. So 2-7 against the spread. That's
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: one of the ugliest trends on the whole board for
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: a favorite. I mean, A & M almost never covers
• 34:20
  Speaker 1: as a double-digit home number. Arizona State as an underdog, though,
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 in that role.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: That is a pretty large sample size for Arizona State,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: performing really well as the dog, 67% against the number.
• 34:37
  Speaker 1: Storyline here, both teams cruise through Cupcake Week 1s. Arizona
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: State beat Morgan State 70-7. A & M beat Missouri
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: State 50-0. This is a mystery box, right? Nobody has
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: real data on either one of these teams. Arizona State
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: can deliver a signature Big 12 win if they can
• 34:58
  Speaker 1: show up for this one. It is the first legitimate
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: test for Texas A & M who has real playoff
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: aspirations this year because they certainly didn't perform well last year.
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: Lost the last two games of the year, lost the
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: rivalry game, lost the home playoff game to Miami. This
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: is a spot to make you feel good, right? And
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: it's This is such a trend-based case for the underdog.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: Right here, the 13% home favorite cover rate for A
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: & M with Arizona State having the 67% cover rate
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: as a dog. I... I'm so curious about this. My number,
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: the model has it Texas A & M minus 16.6.
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: So they have A & M covering. I... wonder about
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: that trend, right? Arizona State, as far as the roster
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: is concerned, A & M is number 10 in on
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: three full roster talent. Arizona State is number 39 in that.
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: And as far as position groups, Arizona State's defensive line
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: is number 18, but the A & M offensive line,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: I've got number 14. Every other unit on the field
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: is a massive advantage for Texas A & M. And yet,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: even still, based on the coordinators and the head coach
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: and everything else, I don't trust A & M' s coordinators.
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: I do trust Arizona State. Do I think Arizona State
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: can win this game? Not really. I don't think they
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: have near enough talent to be able to stay in
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: this game. But do I think they can stay within
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: two touchdowns? Absolutely. Absolutely. I don't think there's even a question.
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: So my model has this as more than two scores,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: but I can't see it. Not with the way that
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: they've covered in the past at A & M. I
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: don't think that they can, I don't think they win
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: this one by more than 14.5. I think at best,
• 37:16
  Speaker 1: this might be a 31-17 kind of game, and that
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: would give me a cover with Arizona State. So I'm
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: back to my dog 11 ways, and I will take
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: the underdog here. Give me Arizona State plus 14.5 on
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: the road here. The fight in Kenny Dillinghams. I think
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: that they can hang around for a little while. Arizona
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: State plus 14.5. Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: a way to support the show directly? Head over to buymeacoffee.com
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures and become part of the community today. If
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: you can't watch the show live... No problem. Subscribe to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast and never miss an episode.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: Of course, make sure that you leave a five-star review.
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: And don't forget, it's available everywhere you get podcasts. Game
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: number eight, 2.30 p.m. Central Time on Fox. Lavelle Edwards
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: Stadium in Provo. And we got us a Big 12 battle.
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: BYU hosting Arizona. This one's fascinating. I've got BYU, well,
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: the number here has BYU minus 7.5 with a total
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: of 50.5 on this. Here's some of the betting trends
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: on this. Arizona as a road dog, 2-5 against the
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: spread in their last seven. BYU against the spread against
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Arizona specifically, 4-1 against the spread in their last five meetings.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: And BYU as a favorite of over seven at home.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: This is the one that's going to get you. They
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: are 4-8 in the last 12 games where they have
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: been favored by more than 7 at home. That's pretty crazy.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: If you look at Arizona as a road dog of 7+,
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: the number kind of flips. 8-5 against the spread in
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: the last 13 games. These are some pretty sizable numbers. Right,
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: it's a pretty sizable sample size. Right, 8-4 against the
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: spread as a dog of 7-plus on the road for Arizona.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: 4-8 against the spread, BYU. a home 7-plus point favorite.
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: Storylines here. Arizona looked okay against Northern Arizona. 35-7 last week. BYU,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: this is a fringe top 15 team. They were pretty awesome.
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: This matchup last year, BYU survived in double overtime, 33-27.
• 39:50
  Speaker 1: That was an awesome, awesome matchup last year. This could
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: end up being a nail-biter. Two overtimes last year. This
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: is like an early Big 12 measuring stick game. The
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: trends do conflict with each other because BYU has had
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: a lot of success against Arizona. I just don't remember
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: the spread being quite this big. It's trying to decide
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: which trend we trust here. And you start looking at,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: you know, some of these different position groups. Arizona, they
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: can somewhat match up with BYU, right? When you start
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: looking at adjusted returning production, I don't think it's close.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: When you start looking at full roster talent, Arizona is
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: actually more talented than BYU. But adjusted returning production, BYU
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: is number nine, Arizona number 65. And I like the
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: Arizona coordinators a lot. And you still got some new
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: stuff going on with BYU, things that we got to
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: figure out. But Arizona, I think, has the better quarterback.
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I think that they're back seven going up against BYU
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: skill talent. I think Arizona has the advantage there. As
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: far as Arizona's skill talent, I think they've got the
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: advantage against BYU's back seven. And then the lines of
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: scrimmage are kind of a wash, other than I think
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: that BYU's offensive line is a lot better than Arizona's
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: defensive line. If they can't get any pressure on Bear Bachmeier,
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a problem. I think that
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: they can at least make him a little bit uncomfortable, though.
• 41:43
  Speaker 1: Can they stop the run? We're not sure about that yet.
• 41:47
  Speaker 1: This is just a fascinating game. And it's not a
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: night game in Provo. It's just a fun spot. And
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I necessarily trust BYU here. Arizona, again,
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: not a great dog on the road. But they are
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: pretty good when they are a big dog on the road.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: I think the number's too high. The model has it
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: BYU minus 6.8. I'm going to trust the model. Model
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: is in love with the dogs this week. In love
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: with the dogs. So while this actual spread is 7.5,
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: I will take Arizona to cover that 7.5. So give
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: me the Wildcats plus 7.5 in Provo. Game number nine,
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: and this one is a Friday night matchup. Friday, September 11th,
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: 7 p.m. Central on Fox Sports. This one at Memorial
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Stadium in Lawrence. We got Missouri going to Kansas. And,
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: I mean, this is the border war. I'm excited about it.
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: Right now, Missouri a 5.5 point road favorite with a
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: total of 50.5 on this. Missouri is a favorite on
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: the road. 4-0 against the spread in their last four.
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: Perfect record. Lance Leipold as a home underdog. 2-0-1 against
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: the spread in the past two seasons. Kansas has never
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: actually lost against the spread in the last two years
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: as a home dog under Leipold. Missouri is a top
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: 25 team. Kansas looking to be a spoiler at home.
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: This is a lot of fun. In the game last year,
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: with this total being 50.5, last year was an absolute
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: track meet. 42-31 Missouri win. Has either defense tightened up?
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, maybe you could say that. Kansas, I don't
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: feel like I should trust their defense at all. Like,
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: not at all. Missouri, okay. Like, Corey Batun, you know,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: I like him as a defensive coordinator. It is what
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: it is. This is, you know, the rivalry renewal here
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: with some real Big 12 SEC bragging rights. Both sides
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: of the trend sheet are perfect. So... To me, it's
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: kind of telling everybody to bet the total, not the side.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Fifteen and a half does not feel like enough points here.
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: But it is early enough in the season that we
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: probably need to just figure out what these teams are
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: doing first. That's what we need to try and figure out. Missouri,
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: significant advantage as far as on three talent numbers. Missouri
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: by five and a half right now. The model has
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: it Missouri minus 6.6%. I like what Lance Leipold has built.
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: I like what he's doing there. I don't think that
• 44:49
  Speaker 1: I like his brand or what he's doing going up
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: against SEC caliber competition. And that's the whole issue here.
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: On three full roster talent, Missouri number 19, Kansas number 62,
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: and you start looking at position units, Missouri's defensive line
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: number 38, Kansas offensive line number 62. Missouri's offensive line,
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: number six. Kansas defensive line, number 40. Who is going
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: to get the push at the line of scrimmage? I
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: think it's going to be the Tigers pretty much all day.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: And if that is the case, even though I don't
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: really like Missouri's offensive coordinator, I do still think this
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: is Eli Drinkwitz's offense. I think they're going to be
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: good here. And with this being a rivalry game, I
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: think everybody's going to be somewhat fired up for this.
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's enough points. I'm going to go
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: with the model again. I like Missouri to cover 5.5
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: even on the road. Drinkwitz understands the importance of this rivalry.
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: He understands how important it is to keep his fan
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: base happy. And Lance Leipold, I'm sure, would love to
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: do the same thing. He ain't got the players. So
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: I am expecting a big day from Austin Simmons. I
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: think that the running back group is going to be really,
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: really good for Missouri in this game. I think we're
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: looking at a touchdown plus win for Missouri on the road.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: Give me the Tigers. Minus 5.5 on the road Friday night.
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: Game number 10, the last game of today's show. This
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: one on Saturday evening, 6 p.m. Central Time on ESPN,
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: God's Time Zone in Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta. I
• 46:37
  Speaker 1: was just there. I was just there. Tennessee, a 12.5
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: point favorite over Georgia Tech on the road. Total of 55.5.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: Let's look at some betting trends for the Vols and
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: for the Yellow Jackets here. Tennessee has a favorite of
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: less than 14 on the road. 4-1 against the spread
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: in the last five. 80% there. They have covered pretty
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: reliably in this exact spread range on the road. But
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: on the other side, this should tell you that Georgia
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: Tech was just in the wrong role. last week when
• 47:10
  Speaker 1: they lost to Colorado at home. Brent Key, as a
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: home underdog, in the last five years, they are 7-0
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: against the spread. That is a perfect, pretty large sample
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: size for a trend that, you know, they don't lose
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: against the spread at home as a dog. They just don't.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: The storyline here, what we're looking at is The quarterback
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: for Tennessee, Faison Brandon, three passing touchdowns, two rushing touchdowns
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: in a starting debut. The first SEC quarterback to do
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: that since Cam Newton. But it was Furman. It was
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: 56-9 against Furman. Georgia Tech, by contrast, they didn't win.
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: They had to fight and claw with Colorado in Week 1.
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech's wide receiver Malik Rutherford, lingering camp injury. We
• 48:15
  Speaker 1: might want to check the pregame availability report for that.
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: This is a serious road environment for Faison Brandon. This
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: is just his second career start. This is a Georgia
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: Tech team that wants to establish tempo, wants to hang
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: around late, and they really need to prove something this week,
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: especially after losing at home in their opener when they
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: were a favorite. It's a weird spot, right? 12.5 sounded
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a little bit crazy. Again, the spread here is Tennessee
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: minus 12.5 with a total of 55.5. The model has
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: it Tennessee minus 8.3. That tends to go more with
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: Brent Key performing well as a dog. And the fact
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: that Georgia Tech was not awful in Week 1, they...
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: could not score. They did not do a very good
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: job of scoring when they were in scoring position. Missed
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: some field goals, had a field goal blocked, didn't get
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: into the end zone. Special teams did pretty well as
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: far as running a kickback, etc. I don't know how
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: much I like George Godsey as the offensive coordinator. I
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: think there were some things that can't obviously be cleaned up,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: but again, week one is one thing. Week two is
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: something completely different. I don't know about Alberto Mendoza as quarterback,
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: but he looked okay. He just They could not get
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: into the end zone. Will they be able to do
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: that against Tennessee's defense? I think Colorado had a lot
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: of proven, experienced production that it transferred in on that defense. Tennessee,
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: first year under Jim Knowles, they got some things they
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: got to work out, I think. They got some things
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: to work out. There's not a position unit where Georgia
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Tech has an advantage here because Tennessee's defense certainly has
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: all the talent in the world. Curious about communication. Curious
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: about how much they know the defense. How much they
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: know the playbook. 12.5 is too much. It's too much.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going to decide with the model here. Again, the
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: model has Tennessee minus 8.3. Could I say Tennessee won
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: by 10? 31-21? Something like that? Yeah, absolutely. But I
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: think Georgia Tech hangs around in this game because that's
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: what Brent Key does. As an underdog, he rocks and
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: he rolls at home. So I would not be surprised
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: in the slightest if Georgia Tech finds a way to
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: win this ballgame, but I will take Tennessee to win,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: and I will take Georgia Tech plus 12.5. All right,
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: if you haven't already, like the video for me. Of course,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the channel. Subscribe over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: That way you can support the show and get my
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: official plays and all that. Again, I'm going to be
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: out tomorrow night, so I may not have a pod
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: coming up on Wednesday. Next week, everything will be back
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: to normal. Hopefully, I'll be feeling a little bit better,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: and I won't be traveling as much and whatnot, so
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: we'll be back to normal. But I will get more
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: info out this week as we go. I will certainly
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: do that. So let's recap it. Let's see what we
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: got here. We're going to take Ohio State plus one
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: and a half at Texas State. We are going to
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: take Michigan plus 6.5 against Oklahoma. I think that's the
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: number that we got right now. If not, I'll take
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: Michigan plus 5.5. It is what it is. Going to
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: take Memphis plus 8.5 at Boise. I will take Kentucky
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: plus 10.5 at home against Alabama. I'm going to take
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Oregon State plus 22.5 against Oregon. I hope I said
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State plus 22.5. Iowa State plus 14.5
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: against Iowa. I'm going to take Arizona State plus 14.5
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: against Texas A & M. I will take Arizona plus 7.5
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: against BYU. I will take Missouri minus 5.5 on the
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: road at Kansas. And I will take Georgia Tech plus 12.5
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: at home against Tennessee. A lot of dogs this week.
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: We're going to see what this looks like. I'm intrigued.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: Some home dogs. Kind of excited about this. Kind of excited.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: All right. With that said, we're not going to waste
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of time. We're going to get out of here.
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: So you guys share the show out. Tell your friends
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: about it. All that good stuff. But for now, take
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: care of yourself. Take care of each other. God bless
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: college football and hopefully all of your tickets cash this week.
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Winning Cures Everything. Subscribe, leave a
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: review or comment. Follow at GaryWCE on X and check
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: out the web store.