Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: System's going clear. What's going on, everybody. We are doing
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: this a day early. We're doing this a little bit earlier,
• 0:41
  Speaker 2: eleven A and Eastern on Wednesday. Got some stuff to
• 0:44
  Speaker 2: do this weekend, but hey, we're here. The nice thing
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: about MMA, unlike NBA, you can talk about this on
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: Monday or Tuesday. Granted a fight might fall off. Yeah,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: that's kind of what we expect nowadays. But that's why
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: you should get over to Shipping nation dot com. Even
• 0:59
  Speaker 2: when all the fights, the fights are get canceled, this
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: or that. Updated ownership, of course, the slate plan, the stone,
• 1:06
  Speaker 2: the fight rankings, tier rankings, everything is updated all the
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: way too. At the start of the fights. Thirteen fights
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: this weekend in Washington, So I'm excited for that. Nine
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: of the thirteen expected to finish. And yeah, I'm looking
• 1:18
  Speaker 2: at Big Marley's fight rankings. I see a lot of
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: four stars, a couple of five stars. I'm expecting a
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: solid card. Excited for this one. How are you doing,
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: Big Marley?
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I'm good.
• 1:28
  Speaker 4: I might move one or two of those two stars
• 1:31
  Speaker 4: down to a one star if you could talk me
• 1:32
  Speaker 4: into it during the show. But yeah, I like the
• 1:35
  Speaker 4: five stars A lot this week, I'm doing pretty good.
• 1:37
  Speaker 4: I think this is a solid card. Another one where
• 1:40
  Speaker 4: I'm hoping the main event soaks up a lot of
• 1:42
  Speaker 4: ownership because I'm.
• 1:43
  Speaker 3: Okay getting away from it, but looking forward to talking
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: about with you.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I'm in total agreement right there. Let me
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: just quick refresh. So we didn't have Kisa and Nico
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: price pricing until this morning, and oh it then hasn't
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: gone through yet, but yeah, I put ninety five hundred
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: sixty seven hundred with a couple question marks, and it
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: is indeed that the reason I could guess that is
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: he's a really big favorite a Skisa. We had a
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: ninety six hundred Thahinarra, we had a ninety four hundred
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: Sterling and no one in between there. So DraftKings tends
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: to try and have no one price the same if
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: they're able to. So it just made a lot of sense.
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: And it has confirmed ninety five hundred and sixty seven hundred. Yeah,
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: still hasn't gone through. Yeah, I mean my bronslay too
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: is I think the upper tier is pretty tough. A
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: lot of plays look pretty similar in my opinion, so
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I do think you're able to leave money in the
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: upper tier, mid tier main event Minus won seventy five
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: to finish, and it's actually I believe Minus won ninety.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Now we'll go through it all. One mid tier fight
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: expected to finish, Monsieur expected to finish, right in the
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: mid tier, Fortune Tibura expected to finish, and then Yeah Fernandez,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Casey O'Neil not expected to finish. But three of the
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: four mid tier fights expected to finish. Nine of the
• 2:58
  Speaker 2: thirteen total fights expect to the finish. And I do
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: agree it's an Israel lot of sign your fight. What
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: that means is you can fade it a few wins.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: It can easily be by decision, just striking and bust
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: that way. So I do agree. We'll get there when
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: we talk main event, but I definitely will have some
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: fight fades in the main events. Anything. We got Derek
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: in here, Hey, great to see Derek. Hope everything's going well.
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: Missy On the NFL shows, Joey saying what's up to
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: Big Marley and then Big Back, what's going on? I
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: don't know exactly what you're saying, but I like your
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: picture for sure. What any broad slate for you before
• 3:36
  Speaker 2: we Yeah, I feel.
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: Like lately we've been kind of avoiding the mid range,
• 3:40
  Speaker 4: and this is a week I want to really target
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: the mid range. And I'm okay leaving salary to get
• 3:45
  Speaker 4: down from the upper range and target that mid range.
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: And said, lots of fights that can go either way,
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: so I'm fine with both sides of them too, So
• 3:53
  Speaker 4: we'll talk about it as we go along, but I
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: think the midrange is important this week.
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I totally agree with that. I definitely think you
• 3:59
  Speaker 2: can leave some money on the table this week. Let's
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: started off the first fight of the night, Alexa Diyanara,
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: biggest favorite, highest price on the card at minus seven
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: to fifty taken on Bruna Brazil plus five to fifty
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: plus one fifty five for this fight to finish, Thyanara
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty inside the distance Brazil plus ten fifty,
• 4:17
  Speaker 2: so Diyanara opened up minus three fifty now minus seven
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: to fifty, some of the biggest line movement on this card,
• 4:23
  Speaker 2: and this actually is a rematch. You can see the
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: thirteen and one record from Thianara. Her one loss was
• 4:28
  Speaker 2: to Bruna Brazil years ago by submission. But yeah, as
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: you can see, Thianara hasn't lost since It's Thyanara pass
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: for me, But ninety six hundred is a big price
• 4:38
  Speaker 2: tag with a lot of other upside fighters that are cheaper,
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: So I'm curious to hear your take on Thyanara Brazil
• 4:44
  Speaker 2: is the easy cross off for me.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: Yeah, this is one I started with a one star
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: because I'm just not interested in targeting either side. Bruno
• 4:54
  Speaker 4: Brazil is actually the only girl who's ever beat Dianara.
• 4:58
  Speaker 3: But man, that's not the same thigh.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: All she was doing is like walking forward with her
• 5:02
  Speaker 4: hands down and throwing big loopy shots at her. Really,
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: she looked like she had no idea what she was
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: doing out there, and Brazil kind of looks like the
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: same fighter she did back then. She hasn't improved a ton,
• 5:12
  Speaker 4: but Thianara has. I don't know that she's.
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: Improved enough to warrant like a ninety percent.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: Implied probability, But for me, it is gonna be her
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: past because she can put up scores on DraftKings. She
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: could put up one hundred and ten here, but ninety
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: six hundred is always in that range where I'm kind
• 5:29
  Speaker 4: of priced out of. I like ninety five hundred and less,
• 5:32
  Speaker 4: so I think it's it could be a one star
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: to me, I'll go and I'll start building lineups, and
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: if I get no Thianara, I'm gonna move it down
• 5:39
  Speaker 4: to a one star. But I'm also not super interested
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: in that nine K range this week, where I'm fine
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: getting her over really any of them up there, So
• 5:49
  Speaker 4: I'm I'm not gonna mark her off, but I'm also
• 5:52
  Speaker 4: not gonna force her into any lineups.
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: Brazil will be a markoff for me.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: Even if she does find a way to win this fight,
• 5:59
  Speaker 4: she's gonna strugg to score ten x, so I'm just
• 6:01
  Speaker 4: not interested in that.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: I'll look to other underdogs instead.
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm in agreement that the nine K range I
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: guess isn't the strongest. But what range I do love
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: is let's see Douglas at nine k, McKinney eighty seven hundred,
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: Chase Hooper eighty nine hundred, Like you can go a
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: thigh and R lineup and drop to them, and I mean,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: you're not giving up any upside at the end of
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: the day. Maybe you would upgrade some other spot, but
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: I do agree like Kisa Baha Munde is Stirling, like
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be thidan Ar can outscore any of them.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: I'm keeping her in the pool. The thing is she's
• 6:36
  Speaker 2: a primary wrestler. I do believe when you're thirteen and one,
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: your only loss is to someone you're fighting this week.
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: I mean, you have a chip on your shoulder. You
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: don't forget that fight. It's the easiest path for Thianar
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: is just to take her down, and I do think
• 6:48
  Speaker 2: she does so. She scored over one hundred and both
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: of her UFC wins thus far. One was a decision
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: when she wins five to eleven on takedowns for ten
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: minutes of control, only forty four significant strikes and scored
• 7:01
  Speaker 2: one hundred and three DK points against Loma. I think
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: Loma is better than Brazil Ken Brazil get up is
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: the question. But you almost want this fight to go
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: to decision in my opinion, Like she has six plus
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: takedown upside if Brazil can get up, and I think
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: she does have one twenty plus in her bag. If
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: that's the case, Like I'm going to keep her in
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: the pool at ninety six hundred. But man, it's one
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: of those fights. We talk about it a lot, the
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: really high price fighters. If I had ten percent of
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: her I'm fine with it. If I like everything else,
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: if I had forty percent of her, I'd be fine
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: with that as well. Now I don't see myself having
• 7:34
  Speaker 2: forty percent on this card, but taking a lot of
• 7:37
  Speaker 2: money a wrestler, I don't think Brazil's very good a
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: fight that you almost want to go the distance. Yeah,
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: I think it'd be a mistake acting out dian Ara.
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: But again, at her price tag, if you don't really
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: get much, just hold your nose. Hope she gets one hundred.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: One hundred is probably not good enough on this card,
• 7:52
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I'm going to get some, and I do
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: think ownership stays in check due to her price tag
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: and other people just going to that more nine upper
• 8:00
  Speaker 2: ak range like we talked about, we'll keep her rolling.
• 8:04
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card. This one's a good one.
• 8:06
  Speaker 2: Clash of styles. Ricky Simon minus one forty, Adrian Yanyas
• 8:09
  Speaker 2: plus one twenty plus one forty for this fight to
• 8:12
  Speaker 2: finish the underdog in Yana's plus two thirty five simone
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: or the underdog and Yanas plus two thirty five inside
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: the distance simone plus four hundred. So this line completely flipped.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: We had Yanya's open up the favorite at minus one
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: fifty five and now Simon's the favorite at minus one forty.
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: It happened pretty quickly. I agree with it, just in
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: the sense of usually close fights, the wrestler is the favorite.
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: You just have more pass to win when you can wrestle.
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: It's clearly the stone shows it. Simone wants to get
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: the fight to the mat four point sixty six takedowns
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: per fifteen Yanya's wants to keep it on the feet
• 8:49
  Speaker 2: six point two to three takedown or excuse me, zero takedown,
• 8:53
  Speaker 2: six point two three significant strikes per minute. Everything else
• 8:56
  Speaker 2: looks really similar. Pretty much the same age, pretty much
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: the same high, pretty much the same reach at this
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: point of their career. Do you think Simone can get
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: takedowns or do you think Giannia has stuss some and
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: pieces them up on the feet.
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna be on the Yanaz side of this one.
• 9:10
  Speaker 4: I think Simone probably does get a couple of takedowns,
• 9:14
  Speaker 4: but I just don't think he controls the fight long
• 9:16
  Speaker 4: enough on the ground, And I don't think he's as
• 9:20
  Speaker 4: heavy paced of a wrestler as he used to be,
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: like five years ago, when he would go out there
• 9:24
  Speaker 4: and get six seven takedowns and fights he did recently
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: against Cameron Smotherman, but that's Cameron Smotherman. I just think
• 9:32
  Speaker 4: he's like more bottom of the barrel guys and Simone
• 9:34
  Speaker 4: had an easy way out.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: Let's not take any damage here.
• 9:37
  Speaker 4: But now if he's not stuff in takedowns, if he
• 9:40
  Speaker 4: is looking to strike more than wrestle, I think that's
• 9:42
  Speaker 4: gonna be a bad recipe for him in this matchup.
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: Because Janaz has the better hands. He's gonna be the
• 9:47
  Speaker 4: faster striker. Maybe he doesn't have as much one shot power,
• 9:50
  Speaker 4: but the angles that he throws that are gonna match
• 9:53
  Speaker 4: are gonna equal that because he could just knock out
• 9:55
  Speaker 4: Simone with something he doesn't see coming. So I picked
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: Giannas to win this fight. I think it should be
• 9:59
  Speaker 4: a pick fight. And Simone, I think he's more on
• 10:03
  Speaker 4: the down slope of his career where Yana is. He's
• 10:06
  Speaker 4: taking some losses, but I don't think he's really falling off.
• 10:09
  Speaker 4: I would say the biggest worry in this fight for
• 10:10
  Speaker 4: me is that Yana is his resume not very good.
• 10:14
  Speaker 4: Simone has fought really the who's who of the division,
• 10:18
  Speaker 4: and now this fight is in Seattle, where Ricky Simone
• 10:21
  Speaker 4: is from, so I'm more worried about that stuff than
• 10:24
  Speaker 4: I am him going out and putting on the wrestling
• 10:26
  Speaker 4: shoes and putting up like seven takedowns in this fight.
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: So preferred plays the underdog.
• 10:31
  Speaker 4: But anytime Simone does win on DraftKings, he could put
• 10:35
  Speaker 4: up a decent score. So I'm interested in his side
• 10:37
  Speaker 4: as well, just not as much.
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm gonna play this fight because it has to
• 10:41
  Speaker 2: be relatively lowaned, just because like Simone is, he's one
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: hundred less obviously going to be higher on Terrence McKinney's
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: one hundred more obviously going to be higher on so
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: and rightfully so. So he's in a range that has
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: to be squeezed to an extent, and he always has
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: six plus takedown offside. We haven't really seen it as
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: of late, but Janz hasn't really been tested in the
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: wrestling department. So anytime someone average four point sixty six takedowns,
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: it's gonna be relatively low owned at eighty six hundred, Yeah,
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, I'm gonna play some because he does have
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: one hundred plus upside clearly, and Yanz looks like a
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: really strong play, a phenomenal money line. First price at
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: seventy six hundred throws a lot of volume. If Simone
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: can't get takedowns like he's plus two twenty five or
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: plus two thirty five to finish, that's really good. I
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: do think he probably is higher owned than Simone when
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: it's all said and done, or at least close, but
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: his ownership has to be in check because Joe Pifer
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: main event one hundred more clearly gonna get more ownership.
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: I do think Casey O'Neil for two hundred more people
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: have interest in. Then it's ty Bura fight. People have
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: interest in one hundred less than yanz Is Kyle Nelson.
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: Clearly that fights phenomenal because it's a Terrence McKinney fight.
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: So this fight's kind of just squeezed in between the
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: main event and McKinney fight, where they have to stay
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: in check to an extent. I think again, more so
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: probably the Simone since people will see plus one twenty
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: four and a good inside the distance prop for Janaz,
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: but a clash of styles. Both guys can get there
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: at their price. I think it's pretty clear Samoe gets
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: there through wrestling Yanas just at seventy six hundred, even
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: if he scores eighty two I mean, if dogs don't
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: win on this card, eighty two can be enough. So, yeah,
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: this is a fight I'm going to be targeting to
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: get different in some chalkier teams. Let's keep it rolling.
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card. The second biggest favorites. Yeah,
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: Currently the second biggest favorite Nava host Sterling minus six
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: fifty thinking on Bruno Lopez plus four to seventy five
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: minus four hundred for this fight to finish Sterling minus
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: two seventy five inside the distance Lopez plus six hundred
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: Sterling round one plus one sixty, So he has the
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: best inside of the distance prop on the light at
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: minus two seventy five. However, three of his all three
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: of his UFC fights have gone the distance. This is
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: telling me seeing minus two to seventy five inside the
• 12:56
  Speaker 2: distance is telling me it's more of a bet against
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: Bruno Lopez that he's just no good. Sterling round one
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: you obviously take it now. It's not guaranteed to be optimal.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: My question for you, more so is if it gets
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: out around one, how likely is he to be optimal?
• 13:12
  Speaker 2: Since he has only plus one sixty to finish in
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: round one, how do you see him versus case him
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: versus Thayanara.
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: I mean, I'm not that interested in him unless he
• 13:22
  Speaker 4: gets that early knockout because he's not a real high
• 13:26
  Speaker 4: paced striker. He is a good striker, he's got he's
• 13:30
  Speaker 4: got a lot of potential to be really good in
• 13:31
  Speaker 4: this division, and he looks like he would have one
• 13:34
  Speaker 4: shot knockout power, but he just hasn't been knocking people
• 13:36
  Speaker 4: out so far in the UFC, and he has, He's
• 13:41
  Speaker 4: wrestled some in his Big Score. He wrestled some in
• 13:43
  Speaker 4: that fight, But in this fight, it should be Lopez
• 13:47
  Speaker 4: who's looking to wrestle.
• 13:48
  Speaker 3: That's really his only chance. I think he's a big guy.
• 13:51
  Speaker 4: He could land one shot and knock Sterling out, but
• 13:53
  Speaker 4: he can't beat Sterling over fifteen minutes on the feet.
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: He's gonna have to mix in the wrestling.
• 13:59
  Speaker 4: He's just not He's not very good, and I think
• 14:01
  Speaker 4: he is gonna get knocked out at some point in
• 14:03
  Speaker 4: this fight. But if if Lopez can wrestle in the
• 14:06
  Speaker 4: first round and then it's all Sterling from there, it's
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: probably too late for him at ninety four hundred dollars.
• 14:11
  Speaker 4: So I am interested in Sterling, but just as much
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: as I am Thianaar. I think she has the higher ceiling,
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: but he has the first round knockout of side where
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: you're getting the ninety, you're getting the ten points for
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: the knockdown, and then if you're lucky, he might get
• 14:28
  Speaker 4: two knockdowns in there. And then on the other end,
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: I'm not interested in Lopez, but if I'm on a roster,
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: anybody in the six K range with a handbuilt lineup,
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: I would prefer it to be him. I'm just gonna
• 14:40
  Speaker 4: try to avoid all those six k people, though.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely avoiding that six K range. It's really hard
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: for me to click click Lopez, Price, Lopez, Brazil. I'm
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: tossing them, and yeah, I mean, if it beats me,
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: it beats me. If I had to pick one, though,
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: I think I think you're probably right. I think I
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: probablyrobably would just go Bruno Lopez in this, but I
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: hope he wrestles solid inside the distance prop. But I
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: don't need a mess with any of it. Yeah, it's
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: close Sterling versus Kisa versus Diyanara, like Kisa wrestling upside
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: Dianaara wrestling upside Sterling, not wrestling upside Sterling. Probably the
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: highest zone just because his inside the distance prop and
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: his price, So I think that has him. I don't know,
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: I think I might like him more than Kise. I'm
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: not sure, but I think I like Fianara more just
• 15:27
  Speaker 2: because man like she does have six plus takedown upside,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: control time, maybe a late finish, Like you almost want
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: that fight to go the distance or at least farther
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: as well. So yeah, I mean I again, I think
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: it's kind of a mistake to x out really too
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: many people in the upper tier this week, like don't
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: play a minus two seventy five inside the distance a
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty round one. But I am thinking if
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: you can build a Sterling lineup and then drop down
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: to Douglas or McKinney or Chase Hooper and you have
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: just as much upside there while leaving money. So that
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: is more of my land, not avoid, but limit my
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: exposure in the way way upper tier, and Sterling does
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: fall on that list, I'll just more than likely be
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: underweight and hoping that he does not get a knockout
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: in round one and then round two, round three. It's
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: probably not enough unless it's coming with a lot of knockdowns.
• 16:17
  Speaker 2: All right, we'll keep it rolling again. I appreciate everyone
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: hanging out. Oh yeah, the like button and subscribe button
• 16:22
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• 16:26
  Speaker 2: this week, very Pump, some March Madness, some NBA, some NASCAR,
• 16:33
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• 16:39
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• 16:42
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• 16:45
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• 16:47
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• 16:51
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• 16:55
  Speaker 2: NIDS will be talking some MLB. You can see all
• 16:57
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• 17:01
  Speaker 2: this is one of the best times of the year
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  Speaker 2: all of the content with so many sports going on.
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  Speaker 2: left Join the Nation and multiple different options for the
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  Speaker 2: day nine dollars get to everything, but the discord I
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• 17:24
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• 17:27
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  Speaker 2: with that if you are just looking for MMA content,
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  Speaker 2: though obviously it's a year long sport. Single sport MMA
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• 17:57
  Speaker 2: Really pumped for this week, and a lot going on
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: in the DFS landscape. All right, next fight on the card,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: another one of the four fights expected to go the distance,
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: and yeah, some my movement this one casey O'Neil minus
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: won sixteen Gabrielle Fernandez minus one oh four plus one
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: fifty five for this fight to finish, Fernandez plus two
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: to fifty inside the distance O'Neil plus four fifty. So
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: you can see. I put these lines this odds up
• 18:23
  Speaker 2: on Monday Fernandez was minus one thirty five on Monday.
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: Now she's the dog and Casey O'Neil's minus one sixteen.
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: So how did this line start? March sixteenth, when it opened,
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: it was minus one thirty Fernandez A couple days later,
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: plus one oh five Fernandez a couple days later after that,
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: actually just hours later. Pick them at minus one ten
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: a couple of days later, plus one ten Fernandez days later,
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: minus one thirty five Fernandez, and now it's minus one
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: oh four. So I mean it just went back and forth.
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: Who's the favorites. I'm expecting to close probably pretty close
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: to a pick him. Casey O'Neil's been off about for
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: a year and a half, which is I think the
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: reason that she has been the dog at times. I
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: was surprised at first seeing Casey O'Neil as the underdog.
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: I mean, she has to be the minute winner, you
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: think with the volume she throws possible wrestling upside. But yeah,
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: it's Casey O'Neil as my preferred side. But I do
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: think that is where ownership goes. I'm excited to hear
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: your take on this one.
• 19:26
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I think it's gonna be a good
• 19:28
  Speaker 4: fight because it is right there in the mid range.
• 19:31
  Speaker 4: I agree O'Neil is going to be are higher paced fighter.
• 19:36
  Speaker 4: She's gonna have the higher work rate in this one,
• 19:38
  Speaker 4: whether that be on the feet or the wrestling, but
• 19:42
  Speaker 4: she should look to wrestle in this matchup because Fernandez
• 19:45
  Speaker 4: is going to be the better overall striker and she's
• 19:48
  Speaker 4: got all the finish equity as well. Fernandez can knock
• 19:52
  Speaker 4: out O'Neill. O'Neil's hit able, and Fernandez has power. She's
• 19:56
  Speaker 4: gonna be the stronger fighter too. I would also give
• 19:58
  Speaker 4: Fernandez the rappling the submission grappling edge too. If there's
• 20:02
  Speaker 4: gonna be a submission, it's probably her, So O'Neill just
• 20:05
  Speaker 4: has to outwork her for three rounds or.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: At least two rounds. But when she wins, she scores.
• 20:11
  Speaker 4: In her last one, it wasn't a great score, but
• 20:13
  Speaker 4: she was scoring over one hundred in her first four fights,
• 20:16
  Speaker 4: and in this matchup, where her biggest edge would be
• 20:20
  Speaker 4: Fernandez being on her back, I think she's got a
• 20:23
  Speaker 4: chance of putting up decent points because if she gets
• 20:25
  Speaker 4: a takedown, she's not gonna sit there on top control.
• 20:27
  Speaker 3: She's gonna be throwing a lot of strikes on the ground,
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: So O'Neill is my preferred play.
• 20:32
  Speaker 4: I think that ownership will start shifting from Fernandez to
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: O'Neill as the line moves more. But that also puts
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: Fernandez in play for me as well. She's gonna be
• 20:44
  Speaker 4: overlooked then I think she is in play. She could
• 20:47
  Speaker 4: get a first round finish here and like no ownership
• 20:49
  Speaker 4: if she's gonna be the underdog going into the fight.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, even if she's not the underdog knows minus
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: one twenty five plus one oh five Fernandez, I still
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: think Casey on neil is gonna be a good bit
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: higher round. I still don't think Fernandez is going to
• 21:03
  Speaker 2: be played again. Talk about I talked about with Ricky simone,
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: but one hundred more than Fernandez is Lata Sonya one
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: hundred less Tyrrell fortune, Like those are fights that people
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: are gonna go to way more. What brings me on
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: Fernandez a little bit, and I don't think you should
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: x out is she's plus two fifty to finish. I
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: mean the inside the distance prop alone open plus two
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: eighty five, that's gonna be more. She's more likely to
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: win by finish than what her ownership is showing. So
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: when that's the case, I have some interest. But man,
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: like you had, Casey O'Neil has to be a play
• 21:37
  Speaker 2: like seventy eight hundred seven point eight nine significant strikes
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: per minute one point four or five takedowns per fifteen.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: How much do you think she wrestles in this one.
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: I'd give her like an over two and a half takedown.
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and that's pretty good because I'm the feat like
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: I'm worried for she just Fernandez is more powerful, Like
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: I'm worried how this fight bust, and I mean it
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: clearly can. It's plus one fifty five to finish, but
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: that Casey's a little hesitant again she's been off for
• 22:04
  Speaker 2: one and a half years, that she's not trying to
• 22:06
  Speaker 2: go into a brawl because Fernandez has more power, like
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: I do think Fernandas has knockout power in this one.
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: She's plus four hundred by ko, which is pretty good.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Fernanda is almost needs a finish at eighty four hundred though,
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: whereas Casey O'Neil can get there in a decision. So
• 22:22
  Speaker 2: Casey is my preferred play, even though she is chalkier.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: But I mean if she gets like minus one thirty range,
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: there is a chance she becomes over owned and maybe
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: just fading. This fight in general is the move hoping
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: Fernandez kind of keeps it on the feet. If she
• 22:37
  Speaker 2: wins a decision, it bus If Casey wins a decision
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: but can't wrestle, it busts. So I'm gonna be keeping
• 22:43
  Speaker 2: a close eye online movement. If Casey gets like approaching
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: the thirty percent range, then I think this fight would
• 22:49
  Speaker 2: be over owned, and then it'd be similar to the
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: shem Rock al Sawati fight last week where shem Rock
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: the cheaper fighter closed the favorite a lot higher owned
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: and al Sawadi out there at sixty seven on the
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: main on the winner, which was crazy crazy cards. So yeah,
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: monitoring line movement Casey and now the favorites is my
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: preferred play. But I'm a little worried ownership could get
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: a little out of hand. Yeah, schm Rock was really bad,
• 23:16
  Speaker 2: no doubt about that. All right, We'll keep it rolling.
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card Heavyweights minus one forty tyroll
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: Fortune taking on Marsity and Tiber plus one twenty minus
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: three twenty five for this fight to finish, Fortune plus
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: one oh five inside the distance tibera plus one eighty five.
• 23:33
  Speaker 2: Take it away, how do you see it? Yeah?
• 23:36
  Speaker 4: Tyberr coming in at forty years old off a knockout.
• 23:39
  Speaker 4: I think it's his sixth time getting knocked out, and
• 23:43
  Speaker 4: fortune is he was a longtime Bellotur fighter. I only
• 23:47
  Speaker 4: watched his last three fights though, and I just wasn't impressed.
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: I think it was his last three or three or four.
• 23:54
  Speaker 3: He ended up getting like heal hooked by somebody in one.
• 23:56
  Speaker 4: That's not not a good sign at heavyweight when it's
• 23:59
  Speaker 4: not blter Walker. And then he knocked out Tony Lopez.
• 24:04
  Speaker 4: Tony Lopez could be our grandpa.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Dude.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: He's old as shit at this point. I was watching
• 24:09
  Speaker 4: him when I was a kid. And then the last.
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: One he won was a striking match.
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: Oh, he took somebody down three rounds before those before
• 24:19
  Speaker 4: the Tony Lopez fight, he took him down for three rounds,
• 24:21
  Speaker 4: looked okay, got double legs. Really had no issue with
• 24:23
  Speaker 4: that guy at all. Then Tony Lopez, and then he
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: fought a dude who weighed in at two hundred and
• 24:28
  Speaker 4: eighty six pounds.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: Dude was huge. Wow, and he didn't even look good
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: against that guy.
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: But he did win a clear decision, So I just
• 24:36
  Speaker 4: don't understand what it is that he's coming in here
• 24:39
  Speaker 4: with to be the favorite over a long time vet
• 24:42
  Speaker 4: like twenty three fight UFC vet in ty Bora, who
• 24:46
  Speaker 4: has fought some of the best guys in the division.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: I think that this line should be flipped, and it's.
• 24:51
  Speaker 4: More so all the early win equity is going to
• 24:54
  Speaker 4: be on the Fortune side. If he does win, it's
• 24:56
  Speaker 4: got a good chance of being like a first round knockout,
• 24:59
  Speaker 4: and at a three dollars he's on the optimal lineup.
• 25:02
  Speaker 4: But I think the longer this fight goes, the more
• 25:04
  Speaker 4: it's gonna play into ty Bori's favor. Fortune may be
• 25:07
  Speaker 4: a better overall offensive wrestler, but I think ty Bora
• 25:11
  Speaker 4: is the better grappler and the much more dangerous grappler
• 25:14
  Speaker 4: in this one. And if Fortune's on his back, I
• 25:16
  Speaker 4: think he could really struggle here. So my preferred play
• 25:19
  Speaker 4: is ty Bora. But this is closer to a five
• 25:21
  Speaker 4: star than it is a three star, and I want
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: to I want to target this fight pretty heavily.
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: I definitely want to target this fight heavily. Like again,
• 25:29
  Speaker 2: I to sign you a pier eighty five hundred and
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: seventy seven hundred, right in that same range. I like
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: this fight more any Israel to sign your lineup, you
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: can go to Fortune or Tyberra, get an ownership discounts
• 25:40
  Speaker 2: and hope is he wins a decision. So I'm definitely
• 25:42
  Speaker 2: gonna play this fight heavy. Minus three twenty five inside
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: the distance or to finish is one of the better
• 25:48
  Speaker 2: lines out there, and any I agree with you. I
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: was thinking the same thing. And the one thing that
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: scared me because I was on ty Burra more UFC experience,
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I think if it hits the ground, he's more likely
• 25:58
  Speaker 2: to win. Any four lineup you build, plug in Fortune,
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: drop to ti Ber, leave four hundred plus, You're not
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: giving up any upside really easy. So I'm on that side.
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: But what the one concern was Tyber actually opened the
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: favorite at minus one sixty and the line is completely
• 26:14
  Speaker 2: flipped with now Fortune at minus one forty. So, as
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: you guys know if you watch the show a lot,
• 26:20
  Speaker 2: I'm big into line movement into props and following where
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: the money goes, so that is a little concern for me.
• 26:26
  Speaker 2: And the line has stood around the minus one forty mark.
• 26:28
  Speaker 2: And you did mention the early win equity is on
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: the fortune side Fortune plus two to seventy five and
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: round one Tyberah plus five hundred, So I tiber is
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: my preferred play, but I just know I want a
• 26:41
  Speaker 2: lot of this fight at the end of the day.
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: If I have forty five percent Fortune and forty percent
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: ty Berrah, like, I'm gonna run it at the end
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: of the day because I want a ton eighty five percent,
• 26:50
  Speaker 2: ninety percent exposure to this fight I'm in now. It's
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: not a one I would lock just because we know heavyweights,
• 26:57
  Speaker 2: like if Tybera can't take Fortune down and Fortune's worried
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: that he's gonna get taken down, or they want to
• 27:03
  Speaker 2: trade jabs at distance and be cautious. Heavyweight fights can
• 27:07
  Speaker 2: bust all the time we see it. So it's not
• 27:09
  Speaker 2: an all in fight for me, But it's a fight
• 27:12
  Speaker 2: I want a lot of exposure to. At minus three
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: twenty five to finish under one and a half is
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: plus one oh five as well open plus one sixty one.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I like this fight more than the main event.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: It's going to be a little lower owned, and I
• 27:24
  Speaker 2: hope it's optimal when it's all said and done. Next
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: fight on the card, Chase Hooper taking on Lance Gipson Junior.
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: Minus two seventy Hooper plus two thirty Lance Gibson minus
• 27:36
  Speaker 2: one sixty for this fight to finish, Hooper plus one
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: ten inside the distance Gibson plus three seventy five. On Monday,
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: this was minus two forty Chase Hooper. Now it is
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: minus two seventy Chase Hooper. But that being said, he
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: did open on March sixteenth at minus three fifties. So
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: Hooper open minus three fifty. Lance Gibson took money, got
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: all the way down to minus two thirty five, and
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: then Hooper has got some buyback coming off a first
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: round knockout lost to Alexander Hernandez, while Lance Gibson did
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: nothing against King Green, so both coming off losses. It's
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: a grappler and Hooper versus a striker and Gibson is
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: how I see it. And I always have interest in
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: Chase Hooper when he's fighting, since he's put up some
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: big boys scores thus far in the UFC. How do
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: you see it?
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 28:23
  Speaker 4: I like this fight because of Hooper's pace, because of
• 28:27
  Speaker 4: his submission grappling. When Hooper wins, he scores and he's
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: gonna come to fight at a high pace no matter what.
• 28:34
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be at a big striking disadvantage, but just
• 28:38
  Speaker 4: his pace alone could possibly hang or beat Gibson. With
• 28:43
  Speaker 4: his pace, Gibson's gonna be the better wrestler and the
• 28:45
  Speaker 4: better striker, but he's not a high outrate or a
• 28:49
  Speaker 4: high He's not a high paced worker, I guess in
• 28:52
  Speaker 4: the cage, So I don't think he's the type that's
• 28:55
  Speaker 4: gonna get five plus takedown and he's not gonna land
• 28:57
  Speaker 4: one hundred and twenty plus strikes. So it's more worried
• 29:02
  Speaker 4: about testing Hooper's chin.
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: Hooper's been knocked down a lot in the UFC.
• 29:07
  Speaker 4: I mean, now, how many times have been knocked down
• 29:09
  Speaker 4: in training too, So anybody playing Hooper is always live
• 29:12
  Speaker 4: for not only a knockout, but a multiple knockdown score.
• 29:17
  Speaker 4: So that is what puts Gibson in play for me,
• 29:19
  Speaker 4: and he is the better wrestler, the better striker. If
• 29:22
  Speaker 4: he can dictate where this fight takes place, he can
• 29:25
  Speaker 4: definitely win the fight. He could look like the favorite here,
• 29:28
  Speaker 4: but Hooper is going to have the higher work rate
• 29:30
  Speaker 4: and if he can get the fight to the ground,
• 29:32
  Speaker 4: it won't be traditional wrestling, but if he grabs an
• 29:35
  Speaker 4: ankle or just takes his back while he's standing, I
• 29:38
  Speaker 4: think Gibson could be in a world of trouble because
• 29:41
  Speaker 4: Hooper's one of the trickiest grapplers in the UFC, and
• 29:43
  Speaker 4: I think he could tie him up and ground and
• 29:46
  Speaker 4: pound him to a finish or submit him in multiple
• 29:49
  Speaker 4: different ways.
• 29:49
  Speaker 3: So I am going to be on the Hooper side
• 29:51
  Speaker 3: of this one.
• 29:51
  Speaker 4: But you can't fade a guy like Gibson going against
• 29:55
  Speaker 4: Hooper usually. I think if Gibson's a seventy three hundred
• 29:59
  Speaker 4: FI most matchups, I think you're fine to fade him,
• 30:02
  Speaker 4: but not against a guy like Hooper who can't eat
• 30:05
  Speaker 4: very many shuts.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah. I mean at the end of the day too,
• 30:08
  Speaker 2: it's plus I don't know why I keep saying it
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: at the end of the day, but seventy three hundred
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: dollars fighter, he's plus three seventy five inside the distance,
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: which is one of the best inside the distance props
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: in the lower tier. I'm on the Chase Hooper side
• 30:20
  Speaker 2: the like I man, He's gonna find a way to
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: get the fight to the mat, I think, and when
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: he does, even if he does get taken down. I
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: don't think Lance Gibson's wrestling in this fight. I think
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: it'd be a big mistake. But if this fight hits
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: the mat in any which way, Hooper gets dropped, Gibson
• 30:33
  Speaker 2: jumps on him inminari roll, he'll hook like grabbing a leg.
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: Chase Hooper probably more than likely how he gets it
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: down body lock to a trip or something like that.
• 30:44
  Speaker 2: I do like Chase Hooper a lot more at one
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: fifty five than I did one forty five. He's kind
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: of filled out for his frame. You have to fight
• 30:50
  Speaker 2: a perfect fight like Alexander Hernandez did. You really have
• 30:53
  Speaker 2: to be cautious every single second of keeping distance in
• 30:57
  Speaker 2: and out with your strikes. Not saying Gibson it is
• 31:00
  Speaker 2: the bigger cage, but I do think Chase super finds
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: a way to get it to the mat. And when
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: he does, I mean he styles on almost anyone with
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: his grappling, and like you mentioned for his scores in
• 31:11
  Speaker 2: the UFC, that's what he's had in his wins one twelve,
• 31:14
  Speaker 2: seventy three, one forty two, one twenty ninety four, one
• 31:19
  Speaker 2: thirty four, one thirteen and one oh four. I mean
• 31:22
  Speaker 2: that's what every score, but one of them you pretty
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: much take this week. So yeah, I'm definitely on the
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: Chase Hooper side, one of my favorite plays in the
• 31:30
  Speaker 2: upper tier. But yeah, you can't ignore landscaps and at
• 31:33
  Speaker 2: plus three seventy five inside the distance against someone's who's
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: as poor of a striker as Chase Hooper is, it
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: is improved, there's no doubt about that, but it's still
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: not on the level of most lightweights. Next fight on
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: the car, talk about a striker. We got some striking
• 31:49
  Speaker 2: paradise in this one. Ignacio Baba Munde is minus three
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: hundred taking on Tofiq Musaia of plus two fifty minus
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: two hundred for this fight. To finish, Baja mundees minus
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: one twenty inside the distance Musaiah plus four fifteen. Bajamund
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: Is in round one plus three hundred. So looking at
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: this Monday, it was minus one ninety to finish. Now
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: it's minus two hundred. The money line has not changed
• 32:14
  Speaker 2: at all. I'm kind of torn on what to do
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: with Bijo mund Is. He's expected to finish his fight
• 32:19
  Speaker 2: taking on just a striker, but Baba Mundez is just
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: a striker himself and plus three hundred inside the distance
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: isn't great now, Bob Mundees, do you think he wrestles
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: in this one? It'd be the easiest path, And I
• 32:31
  Speaker 2: think he is skilled enough that he can, and he
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: has long enough lens where he couldn't wrap up and
• 32:36
  Speaker 2: that could do something. When he loses, it's almost always
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: by submission. I believe four of his six losses by
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: sub But that's not what Bob muon Is is known for,
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: even though I do think he has it. So do
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: you think he wrestles or do you think they just
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: bang it out on the feet?
• 32:50
  Speaker 4: I think musaiyav is our more likely wrestler in this one.
• 32:56
  Speaker 4: Both of them are primarily strikers. Musaiah more of a
• 33:00
  Speaker 4: heavy hitter puncher, though he's not mixed in very many kicks,
• 33:04
  Speaker 4: whereas Bajamondes is just a better fighter at range and
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: he mixes in a mixture of everything.
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: I mean, a third of the time he's going to.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: The legs, a third of the time he's going to
• 33:13
  Speaker 4: the body, and a third of the time he's going
• 33:14
  Speaker 4: to the head. And the longer the fight goes, I
• 33:17
  Speaker 4: think it's just gonna be kind of all Bajamondes saw
• 33:21
  Speaker 4: the late finish equity on the Bahamonda side. I don't
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: know about more finish equity on early finish equity on
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: the Mussaiah side, but I think if he's going to
• 33:29
  Speaker 4: get a finish, it will be early in the fight.
• 33:31
  Speaker 4: But Bajimondes could get it early as well. But from
• 33:34
  Speaker 4: from what I saw, I was most impressed with Moussaiah's
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: ground and pound.
• 33:39
  Speaker 3: Once they clinch up, he was a strong dude.
• 33:41
  Speaker 4: He could just lift the guy up, throw him to
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: the ground, and then once the guy was on his back, he.
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: Was really aggressive with ground and pound.
• 33:48
  Speaker 4: So that's what I would be more worried about in
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: round one if I was on the Bahamond side.
• 33:54
  Speaker 3: I think.
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: I think Mussaiah does have early finish equity, whether it
• 33:58
  Speaker 4: be on the feet or the ground with that ground
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: and pound, But I don't really see Musai have winning
• 34:02
  Speaker 4: minutes over the course of three rounds, and Bajamdas could
• 34:06
  Speaker 4: win all three rounds or he could finish in any round.
• 34:08
  Speaker 4: So I have it as a three and three because
• 34:11
  Speaker 4: Bahamdas is more of a wide range of scores. He
• 34:13
  Speaker 4: can be a seventy point winner or one hundred and
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: ten point winner. I think if Musaia have wins, he
• 34:20
  Speaker 4: is going to score well. I just don't like his
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: chances of winning that much. I think the odds are
• 34:23
  Speaker 4: about right.
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: I agree with everything you just said there Baba Munde's
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: wide range of outcomes even if he scores one hundred,
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: though at ninety two hundred it's not guaranteed to be
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: optimal just a primary striker plus three hundred inside or
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: plus three hundred and round one. It's not great when
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: you're comparing him to others like I do personally prefer Hooper,
• 34:42
  Speaker 2: prefer McKinney, prefer Douglas, who are all cheaper. But I
• 34:46
  Speaker 2: do think the ownership on Baha Mundez does stay in
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: check and it's minus two under to finish. She throws
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of volume. Do you think Massia is the
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: more likely wrestler though? That's interesting and that makes me
• 34:59
  Speaker 2: like him a a little more at seven k Now,
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: the inside the distance prop from Versaiva has gone the
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: wrong way open plus three seventy five now plus four fifteen,
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: whereas for bam Mundez open minus one ten now minus
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: one twenty. But we're talking about a twenty two hundred
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: dollars price difference, and I said I didn't like the
• 35:16
  Speaker 2: six K fighters, So that means Musaia naturally is the
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: lowest fighter that I will be looking to play. So yeah,
• 35:22
  Speaker 2: maybe at the end of the day, more than likely
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: I probably have more Musayev to the field than Baha Mundez,
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: but I'm not going to x out Baha mund Is. Again,
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: you can interchange a lot of these upper tier fighters.
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: I do think if you're playing the main event and
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: then if you're playing the fortune Tyboro fight, maybe that's
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: when you get different in the upper tier. If you're
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: fading the main event, maybe that's when you eat more
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: chalk in the upper tier. That's kind of how I'm
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: going about it.
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: Again.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: Each lineup should tell a story, and then you group
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: and you look at your ownerships and get your exposures.
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: That way, it's kind of what I try and do.
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: So make sure your lineup makes sense with the contest
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: you're playing, with the ownership with the dupes, but also
• 36:00
  Speaker 2: try and get exposure to the fighters that you do
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: want to build a portfolio. And again Saberson makes that
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: very easy to mess around with your mind, max dial
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: in what you want look at each lineup, check the ownership,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: the projection, all of that good stuff, and again multiple packages.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: We do have at schipenation dot com with our partner Saberson.
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: Next fight on the card, I mean this one. Any
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: Terrence McKinny fight you're gonna play in DFS minus one
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: seventy t Rex plus one forty five Kyle Nelson. This
• 36:31
  Speaker 2: fight is minus fourteen hundred to finish under one and
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: a half minus two fifty Terrence McKinney minus one sixty
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: inside the distance Nelson plus one sixty McKinney round one
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: plus one ten Kyle Nelson round one plus four hundred.
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: It's that easy, man, it's Terrence McKinney. If you're not
• 36:50
  Speaker 2: playing Terrence McKinney, you should be playing Kyle Nelson. If
• 36:54
  Speaker 2: you're not playing either of them, I guess eat all
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: the chalk after that. But yeah, I rarely make rules
• 37:00
  Speaker 2: they have one hundred percent. If I'm playing twenty y
• 37:03
  Speaker 2: or last, I probably am just making the rule and
• 37:05
  Speaker 2: then figuring out the next five guys one hundred and fifty. Obviously,
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: random stuff can happen in the sport of MMA, but
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: the definition of all gas no breaks is Terrence McKinnie,
• 37:15
  Speaker 2: never been a decision, only been to one third round,
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: which is like his third pro fight or something. Yeah,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: I mean it's it's t Rex. I'm on the t
• 37:23
  Speaker 2: Rex side over Kyle Nelson. I just think Nelson won't
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: be able to weather the storm. McKinny can take him
• 37:29
  Speaker 2: down and submit him, he can knock him out. He's
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: just a bad, bad dude for the first couple of minutes.
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this fight is always fun, as every t
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: Rex fight is.
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree. I'm just gonna be all in on
• 37:39
  Speaker 4: this fight. I'm on the McKinney side. He's just gonna
• 37:43
  Speaker 4: be really hard to deal with. In that first three minutes.
• 37:46
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be better than Nelson everywhere. He's gonna be
• 37:48
  Speaker 4: so much more dangerous than Nelson in that first three minutes.
• 37:52
  Speaker 4: And then after that three minutes, Nelson is gonna be
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: better everywhere, and he's gonna finish McKinny if it gets out.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: Of the first round. So all in on the fight.
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: Even if Nelson does nothing in round one, he's still
• 38:05
  Speaker 4: gonna put up a good score from whatever he does
• 38:07
  Speaker 4: in round two, and he's gonna get a second round finish.
• 38:10
  Speaker 3: Or a third round finish as well. So yeah, I
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: want to be all in on this fight.
• 38:13
  Speaker 4: The only thing you're worried about, I think you're not
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: worried about a bad score. If you're all in on
• 38:18
  Speaker 4: this fight, you're worried about something happening backstage and they
• 38:20
  Speaker 4: don't even make it out to the cage. But I'm
• 38:24
  Speaker 4: gonna probably be a twenty or less lineup this week,
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: and I'm just gonna make sure that all twenty have
• 38:30
  Speaker 4: one of these guys names preferred plays is McKinney. But
• 38:34
  Speaker 4: if I end up with more Nelson than McKinney, I
• 38:37
  Speaker 4: would be okay with that, but I doubt it'll be
• 38:39
  Speaker 4: that way.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah. No, I would be okay with it too if
• 38:42
  Speaker 2: it was like sixty forty you had Calan Elison. Again,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: we play a salary based game. I mean, your cheeks
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: are clenched for the first three four minutes, there's no
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: doubt about that. But you almost know when you're gonna
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: get to win. Like when McKinney starts falling apart, it's
• 38:56
  Speaker 2: really really apparent. Yeah, I'm not gonna say he's a quitter,
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: because he's not necess e quitter, but it's almost like,
• 39:01
  Speaker 2: all right, my gas is done, let me go, uh,
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: let me go fight for the next let me save
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: myself for the next fight. And he just kind of
• 39:08
  Speaker 2: falls apart after that. But I love Terrence McKinney's fighting
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: style is never change Yeah, yeah, never changes, right. He
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: tried to change once against bomb Theme and just looked terrible.
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, McKinney didn't do anything early, didn't do anything late,
• 39:23
  Speaker 2: and bombfing just walked him down, and I think McKinny
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: was like, yeah, I'm never never doing that again. So
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: all gas, no breaks, do not miss this fight. Must
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: watch TV anytime Terrence McKinney is in the octagon. Next
• 39:36
  Speaker 2: fight on the card another mid tier fight expected to
• 39:38
  Speaker 2: finish Monteur Abdua Malik minus one eighteen taking an usury
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: belgory minus one O two minus one ninety for this
• 39:46
  Speaker 2: fight to finish Monsieur plus one forty inside the distance
• 39:49
  Speaker 2: balgory plus two fifteen round one props. Monsieur plus four
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: hundred balgory plus five twenty five so some line movement
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: on this one you can see on the stone. Minus
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: one sixty for this fight to finish on Monday now
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: minus one ninety so that's really good. Monsieur Open plus
• 40:07
  Speaker 2: one seventy to finish now plus one forty some other
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: line movement. Round one. Both guys took some money. Monsieur
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: Open plus five hundred, Round one now plus four hundred,
• 40:17
  Speaker 2: Balgory Open plus six hundred and round one now plus
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: five twenty five. All of that is music to my
• 40:23
  Speaker 2: ears when I'm trying to get away from the main
• 40:26
  Speaker 2: event as much as possible. I do think this is
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: a fight you can go to leave money off of
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: Izzy and you're really not giving up upside. To be honest,
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: you might be gaining upside because both guys individually have
• 40:37
  Speaker 2: better inside the distance props than Atisanya when it's all
• 40:40
  Speaker 2: said and done. So, yeah, I'm a little nervous. Monsieur
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: has had some boring fights in the UFC and shown
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: to be passive, but the unders taking money. So I'm
• 40:49
  Speaker 2: just gonna kind of hold my nose and hope it's
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: a fun fight. How do you see it?
• 40:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, this is my.
• 40:54
  Speaker 4: Favorite stretch of fights. He's three fights from McKinny to Douglas. Yeah,
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: gonna be really heavy on these, and I think I
• 41:01
  Speaker 4: might have started with a five star on this one
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: and then realized I like those other two just that
• 41:06
  Speaker 4: much more.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: I moved it down to a four star.
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: But this is one of those fights where the winner
• 41:12
  Speaker 4: probably looks like they should have been a big favorite,
• 41:15
  Speaker 4: but we just don't know how the fight's gonna go.
• 41:18
  Speaker 4: Is Malik gonna get the fight to the ground. I mean,
• 41:20
  Speaker 4: he's an athletic freak. He's got a ton of strength
• 41:22
  Speaker 4: and power. I think he could just pick this guy up,
• 41:25
  Speaker 4: slam him, and then kind of.
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: Do what he wants on the ground. But I don't
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: know how long he can do that.
• 41:31
  Speaker 4: And if he can't get takedowns, then Belgari's gonna pick
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: him apart.
• 41:35
  Speaker 3: On the feet.
• 41:36
  Speaker 4: He's the better longer kickboxer, and he can go hard
• 41:40
  Speaker 4: fifteen minutes, and he's dangerous on the feet, So I
• 41:42
  Speaker 4: think it could be one way traffic if the takedowns
• 41:45
  Speaker 4: aren't there for Malik. Malik would need to land a
• 41:49
  Speaker 4: big shot in order to He could win a striking match,
• 41:51
  Speaker 4: but he would have to be a knockout. I don't
• 41:52
  Speaker 4: think he could win minutes with bell gory, and I
• 41:55
  Speaker 4: think the later the fight goes, all the finish equity
• 41:58
  Speaker 4: on the feet anyways, is on the bell side, but man,
• 42:03
  Speaker 4: I think it could also get to the point where
• 42:05
  Speaker 4: Balgory never gets to strike in this fight. Malik just
• 42:08
  Speaker 4: goes out there, slams them, and then grabs a neck
• 42:11
  Speaker 4: or ground a bounds them to a finish.
• 42:12
  Speaker 3: So he is my preferred play. He's just I think
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: he could be special.
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: I would like to see him improve as an MMA
• 42:20
  Speaker 4: fighter in general, but he's got all the physical attributes
• 42:23
  Speaker 4: to be really good one day, so I'm picking Malik
• 42:26
  Speaker 4: to get the win.
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: I agree. I mean hasn't been great thus far in
• 42:30
  Speaker 2: the UFC, he hasn't fought great competition. He opened minus
• 42:34
  Speaker 2: one forty now minus won eighteen. Some money going against
• 42:36
  Speaker 2: him a little bit, but I'm just kind of buying
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: in on the guy that looks like an athletic freak
• 42:41
  Speaker 2: that can strike and wrestle like you're saying, and just
• 42:44
  Speaker 2: hope he figures it out. More So, though I'm fine
• 42:47
  Speaker 2: playing Malik and dropping down to Belgory, it's almost to
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: pick him fight. You're not giving up too much upside,
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: so that's one way to get difference. I just want
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: a good amount of this of this fight, this fight
• 42:59
  Speaker 2: and the fortune type. I would love if both of
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: them outscored Adasani and Pifer. At the end of the day,
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: I think they're gonna be lower owned both all three
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: are expected to finish, and people just naturally gravitate to
• 43:10
  Speaker 2: the five round fights more so so I would love
• 43:12
  Speaker 2: an Eusy decision and then Monsieur and Fortune fight both finish.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: I think that is one way that Dukes would be
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: a little lower when it's all said and done. So yeah,
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna play this fight the understaking money, which I
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: love to see. I'm sure my preferred play, but not
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: too strong of alien in terms of if I had
• 43:30
  Speaker 2: more about Goryah, it's all said and done two hundor less.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: It's easy to get different. Any Monsieur lineup dropped down
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: to bulgory and you're not giving up too much. But yeah,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: I agree with you, McKinney. This fight and then we're
• 43:40
  Speaker 2: gonna talk Douglas Rosa. I would love for at least
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: two of these fights to be optimal. Let's get to
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: an absolute banger leron Douglas. Oh, hold on, let me
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: let me go back. I don't know. I exit out
• 43:54
  Speaker 2: Lauran Douglas minus three hundred taken on Julia Julian Erosa
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: plus two fifty the minus four hundred for this fight
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: to finish, minus one sixty for Douglas inside the distance
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: Erosa plus two eighty five Douglas in round one open
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: plus one seventy five now plus one fifty five. I mean,
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: juicy j Julian Eros. He's not McKinney level in the
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: sense of any time you see the name, it's a
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: all in fight. But anytime I see Julian Ross's name,
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: I know he is a green overweight tag, and I
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: know his opponent is as well, because look at it.
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: Six point two one signipiant strikes per a minute, at
• 44:29
  Speaker 2: one point seven eight take downs. He definitely can be
• 44:32
  Speaker 2: knocked out. He's gonna push the pace, he's well rounded,
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: He'll always show up and fight, but his durability is
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: very questionable and that leaves openings for his opponents. And
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Douglas looks like he can crack. So I love both
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: sides of this fight, and I want to be overweight.
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: I totally agree with it being a five star fight.
• 44:49
  Speaker 3: Yep, it is. It's Erosa's chin that's the question here.
• 44:56
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's been knocked out seven times in his
• 44:59
  Speaker 4: fights professional fights, and Douglas looks like he's got that
• 45:04
  Speaker 4: to poriod type punching power, where Eurosa's chinz is not
• 45:08
  Speaker 4: going to react well to getting hit by this guy,
• 45:10
  Speaker 4: so it could only take a couple of punches in
• 45:12
  Speaker 4: his fights. Over, I'd say Douglas has the best chance
• 45:15
  Speaker 4: of winning in the first minute on the entire car
• 45:18
  Speaker 4: him or McKinney in that first minute and getting the
• 45:22
  Speaker 4: quick win bonus. But it is kind of like all
• 45:26
  Speaker 4: knockout dependent for Douglas. I think he is he could
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: win a striking match here, but it's going to be
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: lower volume than what Arosa can throw out. Rosa is
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: a good striker and he throws really good volume on
• 45:36
  Speaker 4: the feet, so I think if he survives the first round,
• 45:41
  Speaker 4: I think the knockout might not be there and he
• 45:43
  Speaker 4: could just be Eurosa outpacing him on the feet, and
• 45:46
  Speaker 4: then Eurosa is definitely going to be the better grappler
• 45:48
  Speaker 4: in this one. So if he can land takedowns, he
• 45:50
  Speaker 4: could look like a favorite in this fight. But he
• 45:54
  Speaker 4: could also just never get that takedown. He could get
• 45:55
  Speaker 4: knocked out really fast. That's what I'm picking to happen.
• 45:57
  Speaker 4: I think Douglas does knock him out in round one
• 46:00
  Speaker 4: one and he's gonna score well. But if he doesn't
• 46:03
  Speaker 4: knock him out in round one, I think Erosa wins
• 46:05
  Speaker 4: this fight and scores well himself.
• 46:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, I'm on the Erosa side for the
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: sense of minus three hundred feels steep with a guy
• 46:12
  Speaker 2: making his UFC debut against someone as well rounded as
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: Julian ROSSA you talk about it a lot like you
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: don't love just banking on guys that need to knockout
• 46:20
  Speaker 2: or the power. Usually say that at heavyweights, so it's
• 46:23
  Speaker 2: not necessarily the exact same. But if we turn knockouts
• 46:26
  Speaker 2: off in this fight, I mean, I think Julian Ross
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: is probably a favorite at worst, probably a pick him
• 46:31
  Speaker 2: like he has the wrestling upside, the grappling upside. He
• 46:34
  Speaker 2: can strike himself obviously, though you can't turn knockouts off
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: and a sport like UFC. He is thirty six years old.
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: The chin is very scary, but I mean, eighteen hundred
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: dollars cheaper plus two to fifty dog, I don't I'm
• 46:47
  Speaker 2: not playing the six K range. I don't love too
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: many of the cheap, cheap seven k range. Julian Ross
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: is by far my favorite play when it comes all
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: the way down to the lower tier, and if I
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: thirty five percent or forty percent and it's all said
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: and done, I don't usually like making stands that big
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: when you're that big of a dog, but I'm in
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: for it. And worst case, if this fight we saw
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: Roman delieds on the optimal last week with thirty seven
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: DK points. If no dog wins on this card or
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: very few, especially cheap, and this fight goes the distance,
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: like you, I'd rather Rosa and a loss and Douglas
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: in a win by decision it's not even close. I
• 47:23
  Speaker 2: think that means it'd be competitive, maybe a split decision.
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: Douglas maybe knocked him down in one round or made
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: it obvious that way, but Arosa wrestled some or was
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: competitive with the striking, put up solid numbers. It's not crazy.
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: If Arosa does get there in a loss, I'm not
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: expecting it, but I just think there's more ways. If
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: I've in to pick, I think the lines a little wide.
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: I need cheap, cheap dogs on this card, and Erosa
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: at seventy two hundred, it makes a lot of sense
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: to me taking on someone making their UFC debut. So
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: I like Douglas a lot just because juicy j can
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: give up or can get knocked down and knocked out
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: very clearly. But at this price, Yeah, I'm on the
• 48:02
  Speaker 2: Erosa side, and I'm really pumped for this fight, as
• 48:05
  Speaker 2: I am almost every Julian Arosa fight. All Right, three
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: fights left Michael Kiyasa minus six hundred, taking a Nico
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: price plus four twenty five minus two fifty for this
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: fight to finish, Kisa minus one seventy inside the distance
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: price plus five fifty case a round one plus one ninety,
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: And I mean Kisa should take him down, dominate him
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: on the mat, eventually sub them. But the real question
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: for me dianaar In ninety six hundred, Kiyasa ninety five hundred,
• 48:33
  Speaker 2: Nava host Sterling ninety four hundred, Like how do you
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: rank them? And to be honest, I don't think you
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: need to play any of them, because I do think
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: the Douglas, the Hoopers, maybe Baha Mundez Like, I'm fine
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: dropping any of those fighters to any of the fighters cheaper,
• 48:47
  Speaker 2: But if you are having to rank it, how do
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: you rank it? Because that's tough for me.
• 48:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I'd say they're all about the same
• 48:54
  Speaker 4: where Diyanaura I would give her the highest ceiling with
• 48:58
  Speaker 4: her wrestling upside, I would say that Sterling scores over
• 49:05
  Speaker 4: one hundred more than Chiesa, but chis is going to
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: score ninety five or so very often in this fet
• 49:13
  Speaker 4: Sterling is like seventy ten.
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: So like that, I guess I would go based on
• 49:21
  Speaker 2: what you said. And this is how I have the rankings.
• 49:23
  Speaker 2: Diyanara Sterling, Kisa, And again we're talking GPPs. We want
• 49:28
  Speaker 2: we want winning scores ninety five every time ninety five
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: is not going to cut it. At ninety five hundred,
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: your min cash value will get there. Diyanar has one
• 49:36
  Speaker 2: fifteen plus we think in the in the bag or
• 49:39
  Speaker 2: interrange of outcomes. And yeah, I mean Sterling, I don't
• 49:43
  Speaker 2: even know how much seventy five he has in his
• 49:46
  Speaker 2: ups or in this fight because he's minus two seventy
• 49:48
  Speaker 2: five to finish. So I do think I do have
• 49:51
  Speaker 2: case of the lowest. For sure, you could interchange Sterling Thyanar,
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: I think, because I mean he's two hundred cheaper, so
• 49:57
  Speaker 2: you always have that out as well. But I agree,
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: i'd do you think cases or I don't know if
• 50:01
  Speaker 2: I agree how I'm saying it. I do think Case
• 50:03
  Speaker 2: is the worst of the three, and I'll be underweight
• 50:06
  Speaker 2: on him. But Caniko Price continue to get up is
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: the real question. I'm not really sure he can.
• 50:12
  Speaker 3: No, I doubt he does. I think.
• 50:14
  Speaker 4: I mean, this fight's in Seattle, that's Chessa's hometown. I
• 50:17
  Speaker 4: think it's his retirement fight as well. He just wants
• 50:20
  Speaker 4: somebody can go in there and finish and ride off
• 50:22
  Speaker 4: into the sunset. And they I think they picked the
• 50:24
  Speaker 4: perfect person who will go in there and take his
• 50:27
  Speaker 4: paycheck and his loss and probably ride into the sunset himself.
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: So yeah, give me chiesa one takedown, a back take
• 50:35
  Speaker 4: shortly afterwards, and then a rear naked choke and he
• 50:38
  Speaker 4: scores ninety six points. I'm gonna have no Chris, and
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: I don't want very much Chiessa either. But I think
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: if if if that thiin Ard doesn't score well, Sterling
• 50:48
  Speaker 4: doesn't score well, and ninety five is enough, I feel
• 50:51
  Speaker 4: confident that he's gonna score right around ninety five points
• 50:54
  Speaker 4: and he's gonna win the fight. So however you want
• 50:56
  Speaker 4: to look at it, I guess that way. If you
• 50:58
  Speaker 4: like the sound of that, than he's a good play,
• 51:01
  Speaker 4: but I'd search for more ceiling or cheaper guys who
• 51:04
  Speaker 4: could out score them.
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, if I was told ninety five, I mean I
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: might have zero, Like, it's not impossible. Ninety five is
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: on the winner. But it's not only Thayanara and Sterling,
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: there's Fortune, there's Hooper, Baha, Mundez, McKinney, Douglass, I mean, izy, like,
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I guess I'm just banking on. But yeah,
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: it's not impossible. If a lot of dogs are barking
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: on this card and the one the favorites that do
• 51:32
  Speaker 2: win score less than ninety five, it's definitely possible. But
• 51:35
  Speaker 2: more times than not, you don't sign up for ninety
• 51:38
  Speaker 2: five at ninety five hundred on a thirteen fight card
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: with nine of the thirteen fights expected to finish. Is
• 51:44
  Speaker 2: how I'm seeing it. But not impossible. Definitely not impossible.
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: We saw Elsawadi sixty seven in Roman, de leeds a
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: thirty seven or something like that on the optimal last week,
• 51:54
  Speaker 2: So anything goes in MMA. It depends on what the
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: other fights do to determine what the tim Liz all
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: Right comain event time minus one eighty five. Macy Barber
• 52:04
  Speaker 2: plus one sixty Alexa Grosso plus two ninety for this
• 52:07
  Speaker 2: fight to finish, Barber plus three twenty five inside the distance,
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: Grosso plus nine hundred. This is a rematch. So we've
• 52:15
  Speaker 2: had two rematches on the card. The first one was
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: Thayanara Brazil. This fight was in twenty twenty one, and
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: let's see, Macey lost twenty nine to twenty eight by
• 52:30
  Speaker 2: unanimous decisions. She went three for five on takedowns, but
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: Barber got the win, or but Grosso got the win.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: Excuse me, I don't really know how I can get
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: to Macy too much. I mean, so that's two times
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: where Grasso won Brazil one. But now Barber is the
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: favorite and Thianar is the favorites. With that being said,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: fourteen hundred dollars difference on a fight heavily favored to
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: go the distance kind of leads me to grass side.
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: But I do think there's a case you can make
• 53:03
  Speaker 2: for Barber. I think there's multiple takedown upside in this one.
• 53:07
  Speaker 2: And people aren't gonna play here. McKinney's one hundred less,
• 53:11
  Speaker 2: the douglass is two hundred more. People are just gonna
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: want to click a plus three twenty five inside the distance,
• 53:18
  Speaker 2: But do you see Barber wanting to wrestle a lot
• 53:20
  Speaker 2: in this one? And then Grasso just feels like a
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: floor play wins, score seventy and maybe that's enough. But yeah,
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: don't I don't love this fight and you don't either.
• 53:28
  Speaker 2: Look like with a two star.
• 53:30
  Speaker 4: Not almost made it a one star because I'm not
• 53:32
  Speaker 4: interested in it the very much. I think it's more
• 53:35
  Speaker 4: in play for the reasons you mentioned Grassos seventy four hundred.
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: She could get him out of the win again and
• 53:40
  Speaker 4: score around seventy, and you might be okay with that.
• 53:42
  Speaker 4: On this card, Barber is gonna be unowned. She has
• 53:45
  Speaker 4: the takedown upside. She also has knocked If there's not
• 53:48
  Speaker 4: a knockout, she has knockout upside as well.
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: She's an aggressive striker at times. She's got power for women.
• 53:54
  Speaker 4: I mean, I wouldn't count on that, but if you're
• 53:57
  Speaker 4: trying to be different on a card and win one hundred.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: K, then maybe you can go that route.
• 54:01
  Speaker 4: But I just don't have any interest in this fight,
• 54:03
  Speaker 4: and I'm hoping that Barber does win. She lands three
• 54:06
  Speaker 4: or four takedowns sixty strikes and just doesn't get there.
• 54:10
  Speaker 4: So that's what I'm banking on happening. I'm gonna try
• 54:13
  Speaker 4: to use none of this fight and make it a
• 54:15
  Speaker 4: one star, but you can make cases for both sides.
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: I'm just gonna pick Barbara to win this one.
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, how many fights is she getting five
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: plus takedowns in this one? I like, out of ten fights,
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: two of them?
• 54:29
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, one or two.
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: Because if it's two twenty percent, I mean at the
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: end of the day, I do think she'll be under
• 54:35
  Speaker 2: twenty percent owned. I do think she's gonna come out
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: and try and wrestle. She's a more physically strong girl.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: But man, you just you really need to get there
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: at eighty eight hundred.
• 54:45
  Speaker 4: So she landed three takedowns in their last one, let's
• 54:48
  Speaker 4: give her the win. She would have only scored sixty
• 54:51
  Speaker 4: eight point eight.
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, that's why you need. You need probably double that,
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: and it's kind of hard for that to see. So yeah,
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: it's I mean the whole field, Like I'm trying to
• 55:01
  Speaker 2: make a case to play it, because the field's not
• 55:03
  Speaker 2: gonna play it. But I don't even love Grosso though.
• 55:07
  Speaker 2: It's more of like a fade if anything, because I
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: don't think Grosso wins. You see minus one sixty Barber
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: was on Monday now minus one eighty five. And even
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: when Grosso wins, I do think she'll be on her
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: back getting taken down some of it. So she spends
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: four minutes on her back one round outstrikes for the
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: next two rounds. I mean, you could be looking at
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: sixty in a win. Seventy four hundred not my favorite.
• 55:29
  Speaker 4: I don't submission upside to hit like a real ceiling,
• 55:32
  Speaker 4: but I don't know that doesn't happen very often either
• 55:34
  Speaker 4: on thing.
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, she's plus nine hundred inside the distance, plus twelve
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: hundred by subs So definitely a long a long shot.
• 55:42
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I mean she got Valentino anything, anything's possible
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: in this beautiful sport of MMA. All right, before we
• 55:49
  Speaker 2: do go to the main events again, just want to
• 55:50
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  Speaker 2: see that as well. Main event time is Rae Lotta
• 56:49
  Speaker 2: Sogna minus one fifty taken on Joe Pifer plus one
• 56:53
  Speaker 2: thirty minus one seventy five for this fight to finish
• 56:56
  Speaker 2: the Underdog and Piper plus one thirty inside of the
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: distance Israel lot of signa plus two fifty. Part of
• 57:03
  Speaker 2: the line going this one is he open minus one
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: ten same day got down to plus one twelve and
• 57:09
  Speaker 2: then days later minus one oh five the minus won
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: ten one fifteen one thirty. Money just kept trickling in
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: on the Adisanya side, and it makes sense. I mean, man,
• 57:20
  Speaker 2: is he is thirty six years old, his chin has
• 57:23
  Speaker 2: been cracked a little bit. Pifer hits hard. I don't
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: think Piper can wrestle for twenty five minutes. I don't
• 57:28
  Speaker 2: think he has the cardio to do so. Piper can
• 57:31
  Speaker 2: land the big shot, but it's hard to see him
• 57:33
  Speaker 2: being the minute winner against someone as technical as Izzy.
• 57:36
  Speaker 2: It's the big cage, which I think favors Izzy. And
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: is he, I mean, Pifer seems to have a chance
• 57:43
  Speaker 2: and is He's not known for his one shot power,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: so I just think this fight gets over owned is
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: he wins a decision, And if he wins a decision,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: he just doesn't score more than one hundred. He's only
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: scored more than one hundred two times. One of them
• 57:57
  Speaker 2: was against Paula Costa. He gotta finish in that one
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: absolutely dominated in twenty twenty, and the other one was
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: against Calvin Gaslam which was a decision, but that was
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: a four knockdout war in twenty nineteen against Gaslom we
• 58:09
  Speaker 2: haven't seen Easy in a fight like that since so
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: I think Iasy wins by decision scores less than ninety five,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: maybe less than ninety. And if that's the case, this
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: fight buss at ownership. That's eighty percent of the field.
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: There's something like that gone. I'm not going to fade
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: it again. Pifer plus one thirty inside the distance. I
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: just think he's over owned. And I guess how many
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: decision wins from Izzy get to the optimal I'm not
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: really sure. So, yeah, you have it a three start.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: It seems like you see a pretty similar take it away.
• 58:38
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I see the exact same. I am
• 58:40
  Speaker 3: picking Eazy to win a decision.
• 58:42
  Speaker 4: I think he is the better striker, the more technical striker,
• 58:45
  Speaker 4: and he can also be higher paced over the course
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: of twenty five minutes. Piper has a high ceiling with
• 58:51
  Speaker 4: knockout potential. He is also our wrestler. I think he
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: will get a couple of takedowns, but I don't think
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: he can land twenty five minutes worth of takedown or
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: control time. And I think if he wrestles early, he
• 59:03
  Speaker 4: suffers late because of that early wrestling. So yeah, I'm
• 59:07
  Speaker 4: hoping I is he wins a decision doesn't score enough
• 59:10
  Speaker 4: and it's over over owned. I'm okay with either side,
• 59:14
  Speaker 4: but my goal will be to get away from this fight,
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: and I'm gonna really target especially those three fights that
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: I mentioned in that one range.
• 59:21
  Speaker 3: But there's other fights that we can get away from.
• 59:23
  Speaker 3: I mean that we can.
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: Target instead at lower ownership to get away from this fight.
• 59:28
  Speaker 3: Yeah, give me easy. I think he would be the
• 59:30
  Speaker 3: preferred betting side as well.
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: Do you think you'll have more than more easier Pifer
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: when it's all said and done for.
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: DFS, The one lineup I was messing around with Pifer
• 59:43
  Speaker 4: would have fitted more easily, So I guess Pifer.
• 59:46
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 59:46
  Speaker 2: And I wonder if Pifer does come in higher on
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: when it's all said and done, just because closetline eight
• 59:52
  Speaker 2: hundred dollars difference, people are going to look at the
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: inside of the distance props and the lower tier isn't
• 59:57
  Speaker 2: too too appealing. Where if you want to plug in
• 59:59
  Speaker 2: mckinnyon want to plug in I don't know, Douglas or Hooper,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: whatever it may be, Like, you need dogs and Pifer
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: just fits so well. I think Pifer. I think Casey
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: O'Neill ty Burra. They all Kyle Nelson when you're not
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 2: playing McKinney, all fit really really well. So yeah, I
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: think probably more than likely Pifer will be more popular.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: Izzy would be my preferred play for that reason. It's
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: just man like. When Pifer wins, he's so much more
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 2: likely to be optimal than is he. So I'm just
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 2: hoping he wins a decision. I don't think he's washed
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 2: quite yet. And again minus one thirty on Monday, now
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: minus one fifty, so I do like to see money
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: coming in on him. That's all thirteen fights again, nine
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 2: to the thirteen expected to finish Washington. So we got
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 2: a live crowd, we got a big cage. All of
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: our content will be up on Friday, like always, projections ownership.
• 1:00:50
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• 1:00:53
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• 1:01:10
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• 1:01:14
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• 1:01:20
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  Speaker 2: talking fights with you, Big Marley. Any final thoughts before
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 2: we get on out of here.
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 3: Man, that's it for me.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 4: Hopefully it's a good card, Lee, it's a profitable card.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 3: But good luck to you title, good luck to everybody listening.
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: Let's ship it.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 2: Let's ship it. And then next next week as well.
• 1:02:07
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• 1:02:10
  Speaker 2: on Wednesday more than likely as well, not exactly sure
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 2: the time, but yeah, again it's nice MMA. You know
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 2: the fights that are going to be on until maybe
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: on Friday, maybe Saturday, maybe after lock but fingers crossed.
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: We haven't had one of those in a little while.
• 1:02:25
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• 1:02:28
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• 1:02:29
  Speaker 2: discord for Big Marley, I'm titled Tim be Safe, good luck.
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 1: Anything you still know, anything you do, do anything.
• 1:03:11
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