Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Gambling Recap | Week 8

Transcript

NFL Gambling Recap | Week 8 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. Today
0:15
Speaker 1: is our NFL Week eight Sunday Recap episode. I am
0:20
Speaker 1: Chad Milman and I am joined by my bff, my companion,
0:24
Speaker 1: my compadre, my co host, the man who said the
0:28
Speaker 1: most beautiful thing he said to me during the entirety
0:31
Speaker 1: of our relationship, which I will talk about professional better
0:35
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, Hello say Man, Hello Chad, Dude three and two.
0:43
Speaker 1: On the day, we got a lot to discuss. This
0:45
Speaker 1: may be our most packed Sunday episode ever. So much
0:50
Speaker 1: strategy to get where we got to today. I don't
0:54
Speaker 1: want to spend too much time on preamble as a
0:57
Speaker 1: reminder of The Favorites podcast is presented by BET three.
1:00
Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you
1:03
Speaker 1: get more boosts with them than with anyone else. Every
1:06
Speaker 1: day they power up the odds on hundreds of bets
1:08
Speaker 1: to give you a chance to win more. Bet three
1:11
Speaker 1: sixty five boosts specific markets, your winnings and even parlays,
1:15
Speaker 1: and they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for
1:17
Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost
1:21
Speaker 1: check out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary.
1:25
Speaker 1: If bet three sixty five must be twenty one or
1:27
Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
1:31
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky, gambling problem called one
1:35
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
1:37
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply. As a reminder, you can
1:43
Speaker 1: catch every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube. For
1:47
Speaker 1: those enjoying on YouTube, don't forget to give us a
1:50
Speaker 1: like and subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. It's
1:53
Speaker 1: never more important to listen to us and watch us
1:56
Speaker 1: live than it is on Sunday nights when we're talking
1:59
Speaker 1: about the early and the big lines that we're looking
2:02
Speaker 1: ahead to for the following week. Here's a little recap
2:05
Speaker 1: of what's happened. We had Dallas minus six and a half,
2:09
Speaker 1: the New York Giants plus three and a half. Very
2:12
Speaker 1: interesting strategic conversation we had on that one. We had
2:16
Speaker 1: Denver minus six and a half, Green Bay plus one
2:20
Speaker 1: and a half, Washington plus six and a half lost
2:23
Speaker 1: those last two. The games we considered but passed Pittsburgh
2:27
Speaker 1: plus two and a half, Texans minus three and a
2:30
Speaker 1: half Niners minus three and a half fascinating combos. We're
2:35
Speaker 1: going to get into all of it because every game
2:37
Speaker 1: is so intertwined, and like Simon, the little decisions we make,
2:44
Speaker 1: like the one little comment we make that ends up
2:46
Speaker 1: keeping us on or off a game at a particular moment,
2:51
Speaker 1: it's so fascinating. I don't know if you feel that
2:55
Speaker 1: way at all, but like I can take a lot
2:56
Speaker 1: of notes in our conversations and I would look back
2:58
Speaker 1: and be like, hold shit, I like it was a
3:02
Speaker 1: little thing that kept us from a loss, and sometimes
3:04
Speaker 1: they win.
3:06
Speaker 2: Yeah. And it's also nice on a week that I
3:09
Speaker 2: feel like a lot of things then bounce our way
3:10
Speaker 2: that we finished three and two. It's like we had
3:14
Speaker 2: a lot of things that were just like did this
3:16
Speaker 2: really just happen? Did that really just happen? Like is
3:18
Speaker 2: are we really not going to cover now? Yeah? Worst
3:21
Speaker 2: obviously the worst pick of the days by far on me,
3:23
Speaker 2: That Green Bay pick was dead from the start. But
3:26
Speaker 2: every other game we were in and it's like, yeah,
3:29
Speaker 2: four and one was sitting there, two and three was
3:31
Speaker 2: sitting there. We win three and two. I'm not gonna
3:34
Speaker 2: complain another another winning week. It always feels good.
3:37
Speaker 1: By the way, starting one in three was sitting there
3:40
Speaker 1: with with meeting Denver to cover in the afternoon, and
3:44
Speaker 1: we're going to get to all of it. So this
3:46
Speaker 1: first game we got to talk about Dallas minus six
3:49
Speaker 1: and a half. Look, this was for me more of
3:53
Speaker 1: a relief than gratifying. And I want to I want
3:56
Speaker 1: to repeat to you. I just said to you before
3:57
Speaker 1: we came on the air, and I said this as
4:00
Speaker 1: I was doing the introduction. Maybe my most favorite quote
4:06
Speaker 1: in the history of our relationship. We were talking about
4:09
Speaker 1: the Cowboys this morning. You said to me, you know
4:14
Speaker 1: how much I loved the Cowboys this week you were
4:17
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys, like like the idea of it, but
4:20
Speaker 1: you couldn't find the logic behind it. And you said
4:23
Speaker 1: to me, could have gone a million different ways. Quote,
4:27
Speaker 1: I support you, You're my guy. How beautiful is that
4:31
Speaker 1: we spent so much time breaking down these games, talking
4:34
Speaker 1: about these games, trying to find consensus. You are so
4:37
Speaker 1: patient because this is what you do every day at
4:39
Speaker 1: a professional level. At the end of the day, you compromised.
4:44
Speaker 1: You believed that is BFF shit right there.
4:48
Speaker 2: Simon, Yeah, Jad knows the deal. It's tough. I'm hearing
4:53
Speaker 2: a lot of outside voices, and then we come on
4:55
Speaker 2: this morning and Sean's on the rams and he's making
4:57
Speaker 2: a lot of good points. And my view, honestly, I'm lucky.
5:02
Speaker 2: I already had bet it, like I backed you whenever
5:04
Speaker 2: that was Thursday. I bet it. Feel lucky that I
5:08
Speaker 2: bet it because I Sean made some good points this morning.
5:11
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna lie. And it was just like this
5:14
Speaker 2: is why I'm like hesitating about this game. But there
5:17
Speaker 2: was one second there where I was worried. Right, I
5:19
Speaker 2: think they'd got like a sack and some pressure on
5:22
Speaker 2: Daft to start the game, and I was thinking, man,
5:26
Speaker 2: if they're already getting this much pressure, this is this
5:28
Speaker 2: is gonna be a long day for Dak. And then
5:30
Speaker 2: for once, this is why I love you, Chad. We
5:32
Speaker 2: were on the chalk side, the right side. We got
5:34
Speaker 2: the pick six, we got the block, and all these
5:37
Speaker 2: different things that never go right for us, Me and
5:39
Speaker 2: you never we never get these plays because we're just
5:42
Speaker 2: betting these ugly dogs. It was great. I was like,
5:45
Speaker 2: thank god I took it with Chad, and like, yeah,
5:49
Speaker 2: contest wise, those are huge, right, That's like you just
5:53
Speaker 2: said that flipped a two and three week to a
5:55
Speaker 2: three and two week, which is just that's that's what
5:57
Speaker 2: we're looking for here. So that that was definitely kudos
5:59
Speaker 2: to you and just a great feeling of like we
6:02
Speaker 2: were on the right side. But you nailed that from
6:04
Speaker 2: the get go of that front four for the Cowboys,
6:08
Speaker 2: all the trouble they gave the Rams, it was pretty
6:10
Speaker 2: much just exactly what you said that Stafford would be
6:12
Speaker 2: under duress, he'd make mistakes. I mean, what was that
6:16
Speaker 2: the fourth throw of the game for him that picked six?
6:18
Speaker 2: Like pressure mistakes.
6:21
Speaker 1: Yeah, it actually went exactly as we thought it would,
6:24
Speaker 1: right like the Cowboys. There are certain spots where you
6:27
Speaker 1: can guarantee the Cowboys are going to do what you
6:30
Speaker 1: hope the Cowboys will do. It's usually mid season against
6:34
Speaker 1: a trendy team at home, where everyone can now believe,
6:38
Speaker 1: oh my god, the Cowboys are amazing, and we know
6:40
Speaker 1: they're not amazing. They caught a team that people have
6:43
Speaker 1: liked in a quarterback that usually can do magical things
6:47
Speaker 1: at the exact right time. We talked about Dak Prescott's
6:51
Speaker 1: stats at home as a favorite in this situation, enormously
6:58
Speaker 1: in his favor, but true rusher on Stafford, that offensive
7:02
Speaker 1: line is just not very good. We talked about this
7:05
Speaker 1: in the Favorites film room, the exclusive episode ten Minutes
7:09
Speaker 1: we do breaking down film of bets that we liked
7:11
Speaker 1: in the week ahead on YouTube, and like, it happened
7:16
Speaker 1: exactly as we thought it would. Like the pressure was
7:20
Speaker 1: so good. I will say, the Rams touchdown at the
7:24
Speaker 1: end of the half and then again in the third quarter,
7:27
Speaker 1: and then all of a sudden it's thirty three fifteen,
7:29
Speaker 1: and I'm like, oh right, it's Mike McCarthy and he's
7:31
Speaker 1: a terrible coach. That did make me a little bit nervous.
7:37
Speaker 2: Yeah, honest, I never was. It just really like you said,
7:40
Speaker 2: they were just yeah, they were just in complete control.
7:42
Speaker 2: It was like a game of Even when they were
7:44
Speaker 2: coming back, he goes, well, Dallas at any point can
7:47
Speaker 2: just go back to CD. Like CD was getting whenever
7:49
Speaker 2: he wanted, he was getting open whenever he wanted. And
7:52
Speaker 2: you know, they're not always going to have the Cowboys, right,
7:55
Speaker 2: They're not always gonna have these kind of matchups. So yeah,
7:58
Speaker 2: as much as I wanted bash McCarthy, it was a
8:01
Speaker 2: great offensive game plan. I mean, obviously a pick six
8:04
Speaker 2: and a block help right once they get up big,
8:06
Speaker 2: it's snowballed. But yeah, I mean, we haven't even talked
8:10
Speaker 2: about it yet. But anytime a backup comes in mid
8:12
Speaker 2: game and you know the name but not really, you're like,
8:17
Speaker 2: you're feeling really good right when you're on the other side.
8:19
Speaker 2: Once again, usually were on the side where the backup's
8:22
Speaker 2: coming in for that team. That's how Chad lived life.
8:24
Speaker 2: So once again the Cowboys, there was just nice to
8:27
Speaker 2: being the other side of all these horrible things where
8:29
Speaker 2: used to be on the same side.
8:30
Speaker 1: Of Well, look there was We're going to talk about
8:33
Speaker 1: a backup who came in for us, our hero game
8:36
Speaker 1: in the next game. But also I do want to
8:39
Speaker 1: say we'll talk about another backup, which is Taylor Heineke
8:43
Speaker 1: at the end, because I do want to talk about Tennessee,
8:46
Speaker 1: and I want to talk about Tennessee next week and
8:48
Speaker 1: Will Levis and how amazing his performance was. But I
8:52
Speaker 1: don't want to get to it yet. I want to
8:53
Speaker 1: save that because I do think there's a conversation I
8:55
Speaker 1: have about Tennessee and Pittsburgh right now. Tennessee is a
8:58
Speaker 1: two and a half point dog. Next week in Pittsburgh,
9:03
Speaker 1: the next game, the New York Football Giants. So when
9:07
Speaker 1: I'm talking about like the conversations we're having on having
9:11
Speaker 1: on Tuesday and Thursday and then again this morning, the
9:14
Speaker 1: Giants in Pittsburgh are at the centerpiece of this conversation.
9:21
Speaker 1: So on Thursday, we loved, we didn't love, we loved
9:26
Speaker 1: hated Pittsburgh and the Giants. They were both two and
9:30
Speaker 1: a half point dogs at home. We felt like it
9:33
Speaker 1: was the right spot. We couldn't decide like we were
9:37
Speaker 1: going to end up being on both of them, so
9:40
Speaker 1: there wasn't real consensus on going one way or the other.
9:44
Speaker 1: So I've got this little bean bag on my desk
9:46
Speaker 1: for those watching, I can show you says yes on
9:49
Speaker 1: one side and it has nothing on the other. So
9:51
Speaker 1: I finally said to Simon, I'm just flipping the bean bag,
9:54
Speaker 1: like we have no other way to decide this. If
9:56
Speaker 1: it lands on yes for Pittsburgh, if it lands on
9:58
Speaker 1: the blank side, were the Giants. I flipped it. It
10:02
Speaker 1: landed on yes and then bounced onto the blank side,
10:06
Speaker 1: so we won't Giants plus two and a half. Then
10:09
Speaker 1: on Sunday, we did something we haven't done all year,
10:13
Speaker 1: which is we will make our picks on Thursday, as
10:15
Speaker 1: we talk about in the pod, I'll lock them in
10:18
Speaker 1: on the Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com and then on
10:21
Speaker 1: Sunday because we want to get those lines. On Sunday
10:24
Speaker 1: if lines have moved, and we might decide, okay, we're
10:27
Speaker 1: going to unlock the picks because if you change one pick,
10:30
Speaker 1: you got to change them all, So you got to
10:32
Speaker 1: be comfortable with all the lines. We have not done
10:36
Speaker 1: that all year, but today the Giants moved from two
10:39
Speaker 1: and a half to three and a half, but the
10:41
Speaker 1: Broncos had moved from seven and a half to six
10:43
Speaker 1: and a half. We decided that three and a half
10:46
Speaker 1: for the Giants was more valuable than the six and
10:48
Speaker 1: a half for the Broncos. Holy fuck, Simon, did that payoff?
10:55
Speaker 2: Yeah? And it does help. But I'm sick for everyone
10:58
Speaker 2: that pushed with me on the three, like we gave out.
11:01
Speaker 2: That was why Simon says, but I talked about how
11:03
Speaker 2: important was to grab the three and kiss it went
11:05
Speaker 2: to two and a half, and you know, you can
11:08
Speaker 2: say we didn't deserve it in the first place, but
11:10
Speaker 2: it's like we did that Giants defense, they did what
11:13
Speaker 2: we thought they were gonna do. Right, they shut down
11:15
Speaker 2: that offense one fluky Zach Wilson played a Bruce Hall
11:20
Speaker 2: and he took it for a touchdown, and you know,
11:23
Speaker 2: Taylor went out. I was like, Okay, we're probably gonna
11:26
Speaker 2: lose this one, right, we had missed the field goal
11:27
Speaker 2: at that point, Taylor was out. Now, this kid that
11:31
Speaker 2: came in is like the most stereotypical Italian guy in
11:34
Speaker 2: the entire world.
11:35
Speaker 1: Like, I know you're talking about Tommy Fuckingdvito.
11:41
Speaker 2: Yes, Tommy DeVito, who his favorite show is.
11:44
Speaker 1: No passes in the second half.
11:47
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wasna say his favorite show Sopranos. Both his
11:50
Speaker 2: parents drive escalades. Like I literally went to high school
11:53
Speaker 2: with the kid. He is so Italian, so Jersey, Like
11:58
Speaker 2: someone posted a photo him on the internet and like
12:00
Speaker 2: a tank top with a TD chain. He just looks
12:03
Speaker 2: so Italian and he's terrible. Like all his passes are terrible,
12:08
Speaker 2: his decisions are terrible. They well, I think they got
12:12
Speaker 2: a turnover or something happened, They get a short field,
12:14
Speaker 2: they just run it nine times straight. He was able
12:18
Speaker 2: to run it himself in for a touchdown, and I
12:20
Speaker 2: had no doubt. I was like, oh, this is over,
12:22
Speaker 2: Like there's no gonna be no points in this game.
12:25
Speaker 2: Zach Wilson wakes up as he does every now and
12:27
Speaker 2: then drives the field in like eighteen seconds, gets a
12:32
Speaker 2: field goal, go to overtime. We lose it, but we covered.
12:37
Speaker 2: So sick for everyone that had to plus three out
12:39
Speaker 2: of plus three, that's brutal. But for the contest, yeah,
12:42
Speaker 2: I'm elated, but it's just it just stinks. When I
12:45
Speaker 2: bounced that way. It's like you read a game well,
12:48
Speaker 2: even with a backup, you get all the way there,
12:50
Speaker 2: and then just eighteen seconds later you're in overtime where
12:54
Speaker 2: I could have sworn in my dream I saw that
12:56
Speaker 2: guy throw a pick six. So the fact that he didn't,
12:58
Speaker 2: I was so elated. I was like, oh my god,
13:00
Speaker 2: thank god. At least we got the cover after all
13:01
Speaker 2: that Chad.
13:02
Speaker 1: Dude, he tried. He threw a screen try pass into
13:05
Speaker 1: the middle of the line, surrounded by two receivers, surrounded
13:09
Speaker 1: by two defensive linemen. I actually you just said the
13:13
Speaker 1: exact thing I wrote down, which was when Tyrod Taylor
13:17
Speaker 1: went out and the Giants were losing sevent to three.
13:21
Speaker 1: I wrote down, this bet is doa except maybe Zach
13:28
Speaker 1: Wilson will keep us in it. Literally the next play
13:32
Speaker 1: he fumbles the snap, and throughout the game he is miserable.
13:38
Speaker 1: The Jets are zero for ten on third down conversions
13:42
Speaker 1: late into the third quarter twenty four combined punts. The
13:47
Speaker 1: NFL record is twenty eight. There were fifteen punts. Fifteen
13:52
Speaker 1: punts in the first half, the most since two thousand.
13:56
Speaker 1: We win this game. The reason we lose this game
13:59
Speaker 1: is because Graham Gano, the reason we almost lose this game.
14:06
Speaker 1: And while we pushed this game because we bet the
14:09
Speaker 1: three as well, Graham Gano shanks a thirty five year
14:13
Speaker 1: old field goal with twenty seconds left, and then Zach
14:15
Speaker 1: Wilson turns into Patrick Mahomes. Unbelievable. This game was exhausting.
14:22
Speaker 1: We totally didn't deserve to win this game.
14:26
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, no, I just so how you play the
14:29
Speaker 2: number though, It's like in that game, three was the
14:32
Speaker 2: right number. It's just it's just sick, like I had
14:36
Speaker 2: a decent amount too, and the money line around Robin
14:38
Speaker 2: that was in there, and it's just the Giants had it,
14:40
Speaker 2: and it's it's a total blunder. But we see bad
14:44
Speaker 2: teams make the stupid mistake at time. I mean Russell
14:46
Speaker 2: Wilson the end of that first half, and I we
14:47
Speaker 2: even talked about the game yet, but yeah, he fumbled it.
14:50
Speaker 2: The Chiefs got the ball, were able to kick a
14:52
Speaker 2: field goal with three seconds left, and it's like those
14:55
Speaker 2: things matter so much, Like those are such big deals,
14:58
Speaker 2: those little flips there. So the Giants, luckily they're they're
15:03
Speaker 2: well coached, but overall, like the discrepancy of talent there
15:07
Speaker 2: is just terrible. Like Waller went out, They're tight end.
15:10
Speaker 2: I think he had a catch and then pulled a hamstring. Yeah,
15:12
Speaker 2: like you said, like once the backup came, it didn't
15:14
Speaker 2: matter anyway. But even before that, like Taylor wasn't moving
15:17
Speaker 2: the bowl anyway. So yeah, the Giants just tons and
15:21
Speaker 2: tons of issues right now.
15:23
Speaker 1: I was really impressed with Keevon Thibodeau had a great game,
15:29
Speaker 1: best gating in his career. He was all over the field,
15:31
Speaker 1: he was really making great plays. Giants had negative nine
15:36
Speaker 1: passing yards, fewest for a team since the Browns in
15:40
Speaker 1: two thousand. I can't even remember. That must have been
15:43
Speaker 1: that might have been the ten couch era of the Browns.
15:46
Speaker 1: Maybe Evan can tell us in the chat the Jets
15:49
Speaker 1: and the Giants both have more punt yards than offensive
15:54
Speaker 1: yards this season. The New York Jets are four and three,
15:59
Speaker 1: and I will say this, give it up for Robert
16:02
Speaker 1: Sala because what an impressive coaching job the guy is doing.
16:07
Speaker 1: Has not waivered his star quarterback goes down in the
16:11
Speaker 1: first series on a year they think they can win
16:13
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl because their defense is going to be
16:15
Speaker 1: so good. The guy has not buckled, has not looked
16:19
Speaker 1: like he was upset. He just goes on coaches this
16:22
Speaker 1: team and they continue to keep themselves in games. So
16:25
Speaker 1: I'm making good decisions and sticking around long enough to
16:28
Speaker 1: make some plays. Pretty impressive, It really is.
16:31
Speaker 2: It is, But it's also just so depressing because it's
16:34
Speaker 2: at the end of the day, it's Zach Wilson and
16:37
Speaker 2: Kirk Cousins the Tour's Achilles today. So he won't be
16:40
Speaker 2: the one traded there. Maybe Tannehill gets traded there. But
16:43
Speaker 2: it's just heartbreaking where you have a one tenitional talent, Embracehall,
16:48
Speaker 2: and then you have Wilson at the wide receiver position,
16:51
Speaker 2: and then you have this incredible defense. You don't have
16:54
Speaker 2: the general out there like Zach Wilson is just inconsistent
16:57
Speaker 2: like he has those flashes, but it'll never be assistant.
17:00
Speaker 2: That's that's his problem. He just cannot be consistent. So
17:04
Speaker 2: who knows if they beforn through the Rogers here, but
17:06
Speaker 2: at least we'd know this team is always gonna have
17:09
Speaker 2: a chance. If they can just get in the playoffs,
17:10
Speaker 2: they have a chance. And now you know, I saw
17:12
Speaker 2: him today. He was doing a little bit of drop
17:14
Speaker 2: back work on the field Aaron Rodgers before the game.
17:17
Speaker 2: Maybe it would be a miracle if he was somehow
17:20
Speaker 2: back by December, could get into game shape by January
17:22
Speaker 2: and make it for the playoffs. But I just feel
17:25
Speaker 2: bad for Jets fans. It's just gotta be tougher. It's like,
17:27
Speaker 2: you guys have such a talented team, it's just you
17:30
Speaker 2: just don't have a quarterback.
17:32
Speaker 1: The quarterback of that Cleveland Browns team in two thousand.
17:34
Speaker 1: By the way, thanks Evan Spurgeon win.
17:38
Speaker 2: What a name? What a name?
17:39
Speaker 1: Right? All right, we're going to talk about our two
17:42
Speaker 1: losses before we get to Denver Green Bay. We had
17:47
Speaker 1: him at plus one, plus one and a half in
17:49
Speaker 1: the contest. We just I think, I think ultimately we
17:53
Speaker 1: just we got this way wrong, right, Like we were.
17:55
Speaker 1: I think we were over invested in the idea that
17:57
Speaker 1: the Vikings got lucky against thes were not believers in
18:01
Speaker 1: that team. I think we were we undervalued the We
18:07
Speaker 1: thought the Packers were undervalued off of a loss to
18:10
Speaker 1: the Broncos, and so we just got this one wrong.
18:14
Speaker 1: I mean, Love was terrible, didn't have one hundred yards
18:17
Speaker 1: passing until late in the third. We were never in
18:21
Speaker 1: the game.
18:22
Speaker 2: Yeah, bad bet just these happened. I mean, we bet
18:26
Speaker 2: divisional dogs and they'll lay eggs time to time. But yeah,
18:30
Speaker 2: Jordan Love, it's coming very apparent that finally it's happened.
18:35
Speaker 2: Green Bay is totally missed on the quarterback position. And
18:39
Speaker 2: no fault to them, Like that's a draft class of
18:42
Speaker 2: Joe Burrow to Herbert and Hertz, Like there are going
18:48
Speaker 2: to be five starters out of one draft class. We've
18:51
Speaker 2: never seen that, Like, we've never seen a draft class
18:53
Speaker 2: produce those kind of numbers. So historically they were up
18:57
Speaker 2: against it, and Green Bay know, as much as I
19:01
Speaker 2: love to bad mouth Jordan Love, it's the whole team
19:04
Speaker 2: is bad. Like their defense is bad. I mean all
19:08
Speaker 2: all off season, all we heard coming to the year
19:10
Speaker 2: was this team is stacked. All you need is Jordan
19:12
Speaker 2: Love to be half defsent and they'll be a good team.
19:14
Speaker 2: They have a good defense, they have good weapons of
19:16
Speaker 2: the outside on the receiver position, they have good running backs,
19:19
Speaker 2: they have a good line. Yeah, they've had some injuries
19:22
Speaker 2: to all those positions, but overall they're just they just
19:25
Speaker 2: look like a bad team. And in that game, I
19:27
Speaker 2: think it was ten to three at half, I still
19:30
Speaker 2: felt like we had a chance. And it was third
19:32
Speaker 2: and nine. The Vikings got in the ball to start, Yeah,
19:34
Speaker 2: and you know, one mistackle, the guy breaks it, he
19:37
Speaker 2: gets that first down and then it's seventeen three and
19:41
Speaker 2: it's just at that point, you know you're done with
19:43
Speaker 2: Jordan Love. It's like you're down that many points. He's
19:46
Speaker 2: not gonna get you back. So yeah, tough, tough day
19:48
Speaker 2: for taking these home divisional dogs. But that's life betting them. Sure,
19:52
Speaker 2: they're not always going to hit by the percentage, just
19:53
Speaker 2: say long term, it's the bet to make. So definitely hurt,
19:57
Speaker 2: but it's a bet I would have walked into no
20:00
Speaker 2: matter what. Brother, that's just those are the dogs I bet.
20:02
Speaker 1: Well. Look, we talk about it all the time, even
20:04
Speaker 1: with the big dogs, right Washington, Denver, Arizona. You bet
20:11
Speaker 1: all three of those. You hope two or three are
20:13
Speaker 1: going to win, right. And it's the same with these
20:15
Speaker 1: short home dogs in these divisional games. You're going to
20:19
Speaker 1: win these games over time, just not the right team today.
20:23
Speaker 1: Talk about Washington. That was another game we had. We
20:25
Speaker 1: had Washington plus six and a half. They lost by seven.
20:29
Speaker 1: We betted at seven at least, I know I did.
20:32
Speaker 1: I bet it at seven because that was the number
20:34
Speaker 1: we could get. The contest was six and a half.
20:39
Speaker 1: And this was excruciating, right, like Washington really should have
20:43
Speaker 1: won this game, like multiple lost Eagles fumbles inside the
20:48
Speaker 1: five yard line. Washington had one hundred more yards total offense,
20:52
Speaker 1: more plays. How are your yards per play? By nearly
20:57
Speaker 1: a yard. The difference was two things. The Eagles have
21:00
Speaker 1: great players who know how to win and the Commanders
21:04
Speaker 1: do not. And when the Eagles needed to convert, they
21:07
Speaker 1: were two of two and third downs two and two
21:09
Speaker 1: and fourth downs. Washington was zero to three, including two
21:14
Speaker 1: really critically bad passes on the series that could have
21:17
Speaker 1: typed the game. They would have been able, and they
21:19
Speaker 1: were driving, so tough beat, tough beat.
21:25
Speaker 2: It's just the biggest difference to me is coaching, Like
21:28
Speaker 2: who the hell is the owner of Washington nowadays? Like
21:31
Speaker 2: who the hell is running the show over there? If
21:34
Speaker 2: if you have a pulse and you actually carry about
21:37
Speaker 2: your team, you head to the sideline after that game
21:39
Speaker 2: and you fire Ron river Jack del Rio, get the
21:42
Speaker 2: fuck out of here. Your defense is terrible. Just everything
21:45
Speaker 2: about Washington pissed me off. In that game where the
21:48
Speaker 2: Eagles were giving it to them, they had all the
21:50
Speaker 2: opportunity to win that game, and they totally laid an
21:52
Speaker 2: egg in that second half. They made zero adjustments if
21:54
Speaker 2: anything got worse, like how do you not double aj?
21:58
Speaker 2: And just everything about it sucked where it's like we
22:02
Speaker 2: are up big, I'm feeling great. It feels like egos
22:05
Speaker 2: have no answers for this, for Sam and this offense,
22:07
Speaker 2: and you know, just it's just terrible coaching. And then
22:11
Speaker 2: the fact that they didn't go for two is what
22:14
Speaker 2: just semi off an edge where it's like the math
22:17
Speaker 2: will always tell you to go for two, but Ron
22:18
Speaker 2: Rivera is a fucking dinosaur. Chat That's that's what sucks.
22:21
Speaker 2: We better than a dinosaur. And it's like I'd rather
22:24
Speaker 2: just lose the bet, right if I have the seven.
22:27
Speaker 2: I don't want pushes. I hate pushes. As nice as
22:29
Speaker 2: that pushes people say pushes are wins. Sometimes it makes
22:32
Speaker 2: you sick, especially a game like that where you are
22:34
Speaker 2: in the lead, have the whole thing in front of you.
22:37
Speaker 2: Sam throws a stupid pick. You know, they get the seven,
22:41
Speaker 2: and once they got to fourteen, though, I kept saying
22:42
Speaker 2: to myself, well, at least they're going to go for two,
22:44
Speaker 2: like they're gonna score here. They'll go for two and
22:45
Speaker 2: at least we either will either die here or we'll
22:48
Speaker 2: live on with the six. And we didn't get that
22:50
Speaker 2: opportunity kick the extra point. And it's just like, oh
22:53
Speaker 2: my god, this dude is such a dinosaur and I
22:56
Speaker 2: just can't get over he's their Their defense is terrible.
23:00
Speaker 2: Why even keep the whole the whole thing is bizarre
23:02
Speaker 2: to me. So yeah, that was definitely one of the
23:05
Speaker 2: more painful losses this season. Just s thought Washington seemed
23:09
Speaker 2: like the better team. The Eagles if like a look
23:11
Speaker 2: ahead spot for them with Dallas and Hurts doesn't look
23:14
Speaker 2: himself right even after you'd run, you'd see him a
23:17
Speaker 2: grimacen and everything like that. So yeah, it is tough.
23:22
Speaker 2: Where like I'm counting this as a loss for the
23:25
Speaker 2: Eagles because of public perception, Like I think the public's
23:28
Speaker 2: gonna be used as a loss for the Eagles. They
23:30
Speaker 2: just didn't look that good, but at the end of
23:32
Speaker 2: the day, they pushed. So yeah, just just an incredible team.
23:36
Speaker 2: Like as an Eagles fan, life, life couldn't be better. Chat,
23:39
Speaker 2: It's like, I can't believe how good my team is,
23:42
Speaker 2: how good the offense is. It's just, you know, I
23:45
Speaker 2: love Teo. That whole era with TiO McNabb was really special,
23:48
Speaker 2: and Deshaun Jackson was another incredible Eagles receiver. But Aj
23:51
Speaker 2: Brown he's it. He's the best receiver I've ever seen
23:55
Speaker 2: in my life. Everything he does is incredible. You know,
23:59
Speaker 2: he's making plays over the field. And then the fact
24:01
Speaker 2: that Julio Jones has stepped in he had a huge
24:03
Speaker 2: catch into that game for that touchdown. It's it's bizarre
24:06
Speaker 2: right now as an Eagles fan, I just can't believe
24:08
Speaker 2: back to back seasons, this team is so good. Like
24:12
Speaker 2: you four nine ers today, That's what do you expect
24:14
Speaker 2: with the Eagles, right You expect them to have a
24:16
Speaker 2: little bit of a rough run or fall off a
24:18
Speaker 2: little bit of a cliff, right, we mean, ch I've
24:20
Speaker 2: been talking here. They lost their O C and d
24:22
Speaker 2: C and they just keep winning. They're the best team
24:24
Speaker 2: of football right now. They're the best record in football.
24:26
Speaker 2: It's it is bizarre. They'll be able to okay, but
24:28
Speaker 2: keep it all together. But like we're about to talk about, uh,
24:31
Speaker 2: this upcoming week, it's a it's a real test for
24:34
Speaker 2: them this upcoming week. So pretty pretty exciting for an
24:38
Speaker 2: Eagles fan. Enjoy this win. But yeah, it's it's about
24:41
Speaker 2: to be a crazy week as an Eagles fan.
24:42
Speaker 1: They are a very interesting team because, as we've said
24:46
Speaker 1: all season, they're winning almost in spite of themselves. They're
24:50
Speaker 1: winning because they know how to win, because they're so talented,
24:53
Speaker 1: because they're so well coached. This team is evidence of that.
24:58
Speaker 1: Six and four straight up the last ten games when
25:02
Speaker 1: trailing by ten points or more at any point in
25:05
Speaker 1: the season, I mean in the game including two and
25:08
Speaker 1: oh the season for context, the rest of the NFL
25:12
Speaker 1: when trailing at any point in a game by ten
25:16
Speaker 1: points or more thirteen and seventy seven this year, which
25:20
Speaker 1: is amazing.
25:21
Speaker 2: I got some more context for you, Shanahan is zh
25:25
Speaker 2: to thirty when he's trailing by double digits headed end
25:27
Speaker 2: of the fourth quarter in his career as a forty
25:30
Speaker 2: nine Ers head coach, so it ain't easy to.
25:32
Speaker 1: Do even more amazing, three weeks ago, the Eagles lose
25:36
Speaker 1: to the Jets and the Niners lose to the Browns.
25:40
Speaker 1: Since then, the Eagles claw their way back. They beat
25:45
Speaker 1: up on the Dolphins, claw their way back, come back
25:47
Speaker 1: from ten to beat on the Commanders. The Niners lost
25:51
Speaker 1: to the Browns, lost to the Vikings, lost badly to
25:54
Speaker 1: the Bengals. So all of a sudden, the Eagles like
25:57
Speaker 1: completely in the driver's seat in the NFC. Shoot. The
26:01
Speaker 1: Seahawks are in first place in the NFC West. Three
26:04
Speaker 1: weeks ago would you have guessed that?
26:06
Speaker 2: I mean, just a week ago the Seahawks were four
26:09
Speaker 2: to one to win their division. Now they're in the lead.
26:13
Speaker 2: And just a week ago, so even the books did
26:16
Speaker 2: not see this comment. With this forty nine Ers team
26:18
Speaker 2: melting down and Purdy turning back into a seventh round.
26:20
Speaker 1: Pick, All right, Denver, what can we say? We had
26:26
Speaker 1: him in the contest at six and a half. We
26:27
Speaker 1: made the change this morning, decided the seven wasn't going
26:30
Speaker 1: to be something that deterred us. Patrick Mahomes had a
26:34
Speaker 1: touch of the flu because it's racing through his house
26:37
Speaker 1: because he's a young parent. Is the most relatable thing ever.
26:40
Speaker 1: And there were moments in this game that made me sick. Bucker.
26:43
Speaker 1: You mentioned Russell Wilson fumbling and then Bucker hitting that
26:48
Speaker 1: field goal at the end of the half to make
26:49
Speaker 1: it fourteen to nine. Then there was a block field
26:51
Speaker 1: goal by the Chiefs against the Broncos when they could
26:56
Speaker 1: have gone up seventeen to nine. Russell Wilson holding the
26:59
Speaker 1: ball forever. But here's my question. We were on the
27:04
Speaker 1: right side of this right call. All the reasons why
27:06
Speaker 1: we bet Green Bay, we also bet Denver. It just
27:08
Speaker 1: happened to work out for US. Denver's defense three straight
27:11
Speaker 1: weeks of playing well, two straight weeks of Wilson not
27:15
Speaker 1: losing them the game. I feel like we're looking at
27:19
Speaker 1: a film room reevaluating Russell Wilson and the Broncos defense.
27:23
Speaker 1: You and me, two sides of the same coin. What
27:27
Speaker 1: are we making of this team right now?
27:30
Speaker 2: I would love to be able to fade Denver, but
27:34
Speaker 2: I believe they're on a buy so yeah, Instead, I'll
27:38
Speaker 2: just grab it right now. I mean a little preview,
27:40
Speaker 2: but the Chiefs are minus two and a half in
27:42
Speaker 2: Germany against Miami. We gotta do it right. I mean, yes,
27:47
Speaker 2: as bad as as bad as the defense looked for
27:51
Speaker 2: the Chiefs. We talked about it like they have injuries
27:55
Speaker 2: on their defense right now, but offensively, you can just
27:58
Speaker 2: tell it wasn't the same mahomes were used too, and
28:01
Speaker 2: I mean it was reported this morning, which gave me
28:04
Speaker 2: confidence where I felt comfortable going to the six and
28:06
Speaker 2: a half with Chad. Where it's like, apparently he had
28:09
Speaker 2: the flu and you know, who knows what kind of
28:13
Speaker 2: bug he got again this is it sounds bizarre, but
28:17
Speaker 2: I believe in it. His kids are in a daycare,
28:19
Speaker 2: they pick up a bug, they bring it home, and
28:22
Speaker 2: Chad knows if you've ever gotten sick from a kid
28:24
Speaker 2: from coming back from a daycare. It is the sick
28:26
Speaker 2: of six right. It's like the most intense sick whatever
28:30
Speaker 2: you'll feel your whole life. You've never been that sick, ever,
28:34
Speaker 2: kind of sickness, And that's apparently what he had. His
28:36
Speaker 2: whole family was just decimated this whole weekend. He toughened
28:40
Speaker 2: it out. He played in the game just didn't look right.
28:42
Speaker 2: I mean that offense didn't look right at all. He
28:45
Speaker 2: wasn't his normal self. Man, what a sweat that was though,
28:50
Speaker 2: Like I never felt comfortable when it was fourteen and
28:52
Speaker 2: a half. I was like, we're dead. We're not going
28:54
Speaker 2: to cover this somehow. I mean, they're just the little things.
28:57
Speaker 2: Never does. It just makes you remember they're just a
28:59
Speaker 2: bad team. They're just so bad. Russell Wilson still thinks
29:03
Speaker 2: he's twenty seven years old. Trying to outrun these d ns.
29:05
Speaker 2: He gets caught every time. I think it was a
29:08
Speaker 2: fourth down he got caught. I was like, well there
29:10
Speaker 2: goes that bet. Just all those things kept happening, and
29:13
Speaker 2: I mean, look at us now, just outright winners on Denver.
29:17
Speaker 2: I wish that was in our money on round robin,
29:19
Speaker 2: but we gave the stats from Evan. That was the
29:22
Speaker 2: first time Mahomes has ever lost in a road divisional
29:25
Speaker 2: game in his career, which is crazy to say this
29:28
Speaker 2: is like year seven or whatever it is. But yeah,
29:32
Speaker 2: for Denver, you know that that was as good as
29:37
Speaker 2: it's gonna get, right, Like that was their super Bowl
29:39
Speaker 2: this year. I wish we could fade them this upcoming week.
29:43
Speaker 2: Because you know those guys are gonna be partying for
29:45
Speaker 2: at least two to three days off that win, but
29:48
Speaker 2: sadly we're not. So yeah, that was that was a
29:52
Speaker 2: great win, Chad Like again, three and two. We got there,
29:55
Speaker 2: but it definitely there's certain weeks it feels like a grind,
29:58
Speaker 2: even on this making the picks this morning, a grind,
30:00
Speaker 2: like trying to get to our five. So coming out
30:03
Speaker 2: three and two just feels so good.
30:04
Speaker 1: So good, all right. A recap of other depicts this week.
30:07
Speaker 1: Denver was the Foxhole at plus seven. Big Balls was
30:11
Speaker 1: Washington plus six and a half. Matt Mitchell says in
30:14
Speaker 1: the script, so I guess we didn't have Washington plus seven.
30:18
Speaker 1: Exec decision was Dallas minus six and a half. Simon says,
30:21
Speaker 1: New York Giants plus three. The round robin was Pittsburgh,
30:26
Speaker 1: Green Bay, New York Giants, Washington, Tennessee. The last thing
30:31
Speaker 1: I'll say about Pittsburgh was we even thought about it
30:36
Speaker 1: this morning a little bit, and in the end I
30:40
Speaker 1: think we both agreed. We love Mike Tomlin, but there's
30:43
Speaker 1: only so much in a Rob Ross spot, and like
30:46
Speaker 1: you got to know when to walk away from the spot.
30:49
Speaker 1: And this felt like the time to walk away from
30:52
Speaker 1: the spot we've been saying all week, like it made
30:54
Speaker 1: us jittery making this part of the contest. So I
30:58
Speaker 1: was glad for us that we didn't. We didn't and
31:00
Speaker 1: over indulge at the Mike Tomlin Raw Raw buffet.
31:04
Speaker 2: And that's tough. We're taking sponsored losses because we have
31:07
Speaker 2: to use that three six fives numbers, So we took
31:10
Speaker 2: a six and a half. But I guess that's the
31:12
Speaker 2: way it goes for Washington. But yeah, that that that's tough.
31:16
Speaker 2: A push on the push on the Giants is tough.
31:18
Speaker 2: I mean, it's just that that one's gonna sting for
31:20
Speaker 2: the rest of tonight. Like those Again, I'm trying to
31:22
Speaker 2: be positive, but people can tell those those games just
31:25
Speaker 2: irk me so bad because it's just it should have
31:28
Speaker 2: been an outright win, should have been an easy cover,
31:30
Speaker 2: and end up being just a bad, bad, bad push.
31:33
Speaker 1: All right for those of us, for those joining live,
31:36
Speaker 1: we do have a game tonight. We got the Chicago Bears.
31:38
Speaker 1: They are playing the Los Angeles Chargers. Right now. What
31:44
Speaker 1: is the line on this game?
31:47
Speaker 2: Right now?
31:47
Speaker 1: It's nine? Wow, it's all the way up to nine.
31:50
Speaker 1: So what's your take here.
31:54
Speaker 2: I'm on the Chargers on the under, but not I mean,
31:57
Speaker 2: it's rare. I'm just like, I'm probably not gonna watch
31:59
Speaker 2: a game. I'm probably not gonna watch this game. It's
32:03
Speaker 2: two o'clock in the afternoon here in Hawaii. I'd rather
32:05
Speaker 2: go to the beach or do something else than watch
32:07
Speaker 2: the Bears and Chargers. Just two bad teams. But I'll
32:10
Speaker 2: put I'll put some money on it. I'll and I
32:13
Speaker 2: gave out this morning. Anytime touchdown, DJ, it's dropped a
32:18
Speaker 2: little bit. As long as you're going to plus two
32:19
Speaker 2: hundred dollars ball, I'd still take it anytime touchdown, DJ Moore.
32:23
Speaker 1: This line's all over the place. You can find eight
32:25
Speaker 1: and a half, so you can find nine. There are
32:26
Speaker 1: nine and a Half's another bet that we Simon mentioned
32:30
Speaker 1: the under. That's it's a big luck rankings total to
32:36
Speaker 1: the under, one of the best performing percentage unders that
32:41
Speaker 1: we have in terms of the luck rankings, So you
32:43
Speaker 1: might want to think about that. Also, Raybauond loved Roshan Johnson,
32:49
Speaker 1: the Bears running back under twenty nine and a half
32:52
Speaker 1: rushing guards. What about Tomorrow night, Simon Monday Night Football,
32:56
Speaker 1: we got Las Vegas at Detroit. Early in the world
33:00
Speaker 1: we talked about like in Detroit. I feel like it's
33:03
Speaker 1: a good spot for them, even though it's a big
33:04
Speaker 1: number at minus eight.
33:07
Speaker 2: It's down to minus seven and a half. I'm still
33:09
Speaker 2: on it, but it's a little scary when you know
33:10
Speaker 2: the pro money's coming in Vegas. But just lines seem
33:15
Speaker 2: like they're the team that beats up on bad teams.
33:17
Speaker 2: So not a deal with Montgomery out. I mean, he
33:20
Speaker 2: seems like he's such a difference maker for that running
33:22
Speaker 2: back group, and you know, maybe that's why the Pros
33:25
Speaker 2: are taking a little bit of an angle here on
33:26
Speaker 2: this Vegas team. But yeah, it's it's probably one of
33:29
Speaker 2: the most public bets you'll ever see me make. Taking Detroit.
33:32
Speaker 2: Here's just everyone's teasers. Everything is tied to this. A
33:35
Speaker 2: lot of teachers got killed today though by this Chiefs game.
33:38
Speaker 2: But apparently a lot of money is coming to the
33:40
Speaker 2: Lions here, so the fact that it's going down never
33:44
Speaker 2: a good sign. So yeah, definitely won't put a lot
33:46
Speaker 2: on this one.
33:48
Speaker 1: The NFL is better when Dan Campbell is in it
33:50
Speaker 1: and Dan Campbell is winning. Simon, can you name the
33:54
Speaker 1: fastest growing ticketing app in the United States game Time Boom.
33:59
Speaker 1: That's right, it's our sponsor, game Time. I love Game
34:01
Speaker 1: Time for two reasons. One because they sponsor their show.
34:04
Speaker 1: Number two because I actually use game Time to buy tickets.
34:09
Speaker 1: They've got amazing last minute deals on all sorts of tickets,
34:13
Speaker 1: including pro and college football games. Speaking of which, I
34:17
Speaker 1: am opening the game Time app right now from my house.
34:22
Speaker 1: You know what I'm seeing. I am seeing the four
34:25
Speaker 1: and three New York Jets playing on Monday Night football
34:30
Speaker 1: a week from tomorrow, and the tickets less than fifty
34:34
Speaker 1: five dollars. No matter where you live, download the game
34:38
Speaker 1: Time app, get out, have some fun this week. Go
34:41
Speaker 1: sweat your bets live and in person. You can redeem
34:44
Speaker 1: code favorites for twenty dollars off your first purchase. Terms
34:47
Speaker 1: apply again. Just download the app and enter code favorites
34:50
Speaker 1: for twenty dollars off last minute tickets, lowest price guaranteed.
34:53
Speaker 1: All right, the buys. This week you mentioned the Broncos,
34:58
Speaker 1: the Lions, the Jags, the Niners who are desperately in
35:02
Speaker 1: need of some time off. My first thought, before I
35:05
Speaker 1: even looked at the lines was to fade Tennessee. And
35:08
Speaker 1: you know what's interesting to me, we barely talked about
35:11
Speaker 1: Tennessee this week. Tennessee they were home dogs against the Falcons.
35:16
Speaker 1: Will Levis was the starting quarterback. And it's weird to
35:21
Speaker 1: me that we didn't really consider Tennessee this week. Did
35:26
Speaker 1: it ever cross your mind to say, hey, let's put
35:28
Speaker 1: Tennessee in the contest.
35:30
Speaker 2: I think we put in the money line around robin,
35:32
Speaker 2: But yeah, I guess it's like the same thing as
35:35
Speaker 2: a Tomlin. We just can't play it every time. And
35:38
Speaker 2: I had zero idea what Levice would do. Maybe we
35:42
Speaker 2: should have just faded. Atlanta is a favorite on the road.
35:45
Speaker 2: That would have been a nice spot, just to be like,
35:47
Speaker 2: I mean, I bad mount their quarterback for six months.
35:49
Speaker 2: I should have just stayed on it. Kept you know,
35:53
Speaker 2: we got really lucky with them covering against the Bucks.
35:55
Speaker 2: So I was just like, you know, I'm just gonna
35:57
Speaker 2: avoid a game of Atlanta for a week. It would
35:59
Speaker 2: be nice. And you know, I don't even know how
36:02
Speaker 2: much I probably had like mid four four or five
36:05
Speaker 2: k on uh the round robin with Tennessee in it,
36:09
Speaker 2: and I barely had any bets in the plus two
36:11
Speaker 2: and a half. I just had no idea what to
36:13
Speaker 2: do with that number? Chad, so definitely a miss, And
36:15
Speaker 2: it's like I tried to overreact, but like you know,
36:18
Speaker 2: I'm watching the game of the Budding. This first thing
36:20
Speaker 2: He's like says to me, He's like, how do you
36:21
Speaker 2: not bet on this team with those those throwback uniforms.
36:24
Speaker 2: I'm just like, Wow, if that's just how everyone's betting today,
36:27
Speaker 2: they're probably gonna get smoked. But it didn't matter. Uh,
36:30
Speaker 2: you know that kid threw four touchdowns? Is that how
36:34
Speaker 2: it was? Right?
36:35
Speaker 1: He was flicking it, like, yeah, the one thing we
36:39
Speaker 1: knew about the.
36:39
Speaker 2: Best quarterback ever flicking it. It was bizarre. Yeah, he outplayed.
36:43
Speaker 2: He did better than Tannel was like ever done for them, apparently, like.
36:46
Speaker 1: Something more touchdowns in one game than Tannhell has this year.
36:53
Speaker 2: So I'm right there with Chad. We're supposed to take
36:56
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh whatever the points are. I saw a couple, I
36:59
Speaker 2: saw a couple of threes.
37:00
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh is a two and a half. Let's frame it. Pittsburgh
37:03
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite at home
37:06
Speaker 1: Thursday on Thursday. Yeah, I mean.
37:09
Speaker 2: Looking like it's Mitched Trubisky.
37:11
Speaker 1: God, that's terrible.
37:13
Speaker 2: It's terrible, but like, I don't know if it's really now.
37:18
Speaker 2: The more I think about it is I maybe I'll
37:19
Speaker 2: just avoid it again because I don't know what to do.
37:21
Speaker 2: I don't really want to put a lot of money
37:22
Speaker 2: on Mitch but under prime time under and I'll just
37:27
Speaker 2: throw a little bet on it right now because that
37:29
Speaker 2: minus two and a half a case it goes back
37:31
Speaker 2: up to three.
37:33
Speaker 1: All right, let's talk a little bit more about Miami
37:35
Speaker 1: at Kansas City. I'm not at Kansas City, but my
37:38
Speaker 1: hands in Germany City, which is the German game. I
37:43
Speaker 1: immediately wrote this down, like to me, how are you
37:46
Speaker 1: not taking Kansas City in this spot?
37:49
Speaker 2: Like you got your little home stat for under three
37:52
Speaker 2: as a favorite.
37:53
Speaker 1: Oh my goodness. Let's see if Evan can can fire
37:56
Speaker 1: that up quickly while while I'm vamping, because I do
37:59
Speaker 1: want to talk about the.
38:00
Speaker 2: Well he got it right here, he's got after scoring
38:02
Speaker 2: twenty points or less. The Chiefs are nine to three
38:05
Speaker 2: ats with homes in the next game, which is pretty impressive.
38:08
Speaker 1: Right, and their defense is still amazing, Like they are
38:13
Speaker 1: really good defense, right, And so you know you've said it,
38:17
Speaker 1: Raybahn has said it, Bill Barnwell this past week in
38:20
Speaker 1: his column, he talked about it like the Chiefs might
38:23
Speaker 1: have one of the two or three best defenses in
38:26
Speaker 1: the NFL. If you're talking about the Ravens and you're
38:28
Speaker 1: talking about the Browns, the Chiefs kind of have to
38:30
Speaker 1: be up there. So it's a good matchup for them
38:34
Speaker 1: against a team like Miami, which has not performed well
38:38
Speaker 1: against good defenses. We saw them struggle against the Patriots
38:41
Speaker 1: early in the season. We saw them struggle against the
38:42
Speaker 1: Bills and news game, so like we saw them struggle
38:46
Speaker 1: against the Eagles, which have a really good defense and
38:48
Speaker 1: get a lot of pressure. So it feels like a
38:52
Speaker 1: good spot for Kansas City here this week.
38:54
Speaker 2: Yeah, super Chalky, but we're just taking it because he
38:56
Speaker 2: under three right now. Yeah, you know, plenty of books
38:59
Speaker 2: out there. Two you can get that as well, which
39:02
Speaker 2: is a key number. Obviously not ideal, like traveling all
39:06
Speaker 2: the way to Germany from Kansas City. That's that's pretty far.
39:11
Speaker 2: I don't know what their travel plans are yet, but
39:14
Speaker 2: I don't know. Chad just Chad just broke it down.
39:17
Speaker 2: Like me and him in the spots, we we always
39:20
Speaker 2: fade mahomes, but you always take mahomes. No, matter what
39:23
Speaker 2: when he's under three or a dog. Evan just posted
39:26
Speaker 2: Mahomes minus three or less or a dog nineteen six
39:30
Speaker 2: and one ats. So we just play the numbers. We
39:34
Speaker 2: take Mahomes in these kind of spots. And the fact
39:36
Speaker 2: that he just got embarrassed lost his first road divisional
39:39
Speaker 2: game ever after apparently he just had the flu. We
39:43
Speaker 2: have to we have to play, we have to play
39:45
Speaker 2: in this spot. So this is in contest of two
39:47
Speaker 2: and a half. Oh wait, we can't play it because
39:49
Speaker 2: in Germany I would have said, even if you're another contest,
39:52
Speaker 2: you can get it. If it's under three, I would
39:55
Speaker 2: definitely put uh this this in.
39:58
Speaker 1: What's interesting this week? Not a lot of home dogs
40:03
Speaker 1: right now, Like I'm looking at the board, Green Bay
40:06
Speaker 1: is a home dog. New England is minus one and
40:13
Speaker 1: Carolinas plus two and a half, like not a lot.
40:17
Speaker 1: And the Jets are plus one and a half on
40:19
Speaker 1: Monday night against the Chargers, which is which is pretty
40:22
Speaker 1: interesting actually. But the game that ipags and I want
40:25
Speaker 1: to hear other than Kansas City Miami, that I want
40:27
Speaker 1: to hear from you on I had two that I
40:29
Speaker 1: looked at and thought, oh, that's interesting. Seattle plus five
40:32
Speaker 1: at Baltimore and then I got one more I want
40:34
Speaker 1: to ask you about.
40:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say, I mean you probably want to
40:40
Speaker 2: be on Seattle there.
40:42
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree.
40:44
Speaker 2: Big number. That's the only thing makes me work where
40:47
Speaker 2: it's like, first glance, I'd assume this number should be
40:50
Speaker 2: three and a half. So I'll take it. If it's
40:53
Speaker 2: stinky and something's fishy here, maybe we'll get off it
40:55
Speaker 2: layer in the week. But I'll grab the five now
40:57
Speaker 2: while it's up there. But shockingly big, this is a
41:00
Speaker 2: really big number for our Seahawks team that Yeah, they
41:03
Speaker 2: got lucky today, that wasn't their best game. I don't
41:06
Speaker 2: see them letting down against the Ravens. I don't I
41:09
Speaker 2: don't see them overlooking Lamar like they did today with PJ.
41:12
Speaker 2: Walker and that defense. I think they expect to play
41:16
Speaker 2: better and this would be a great test for them.
41:18
Speaker 2: That's secondary against Lamar in this passing offense that the
41:21
Speaker 2: Ravens are. Man, they're looking they're looking like real problem
41:24
Speaker 2: right now. Like they're it's them the Chiefs and the
41:26
Speaker 2: Jags around the top three in the AFC, and every
41:30
Speaker 2: week they're playing it. So that's that's the fear right now,
41:33
Speaker 2: is like, are we walking into it? We stepping in it.
41:36
Speaker 2: We'll just take a taste, we'll just start. We'll take
41:38
Speaker 2: the five right now and we'll buy out of it
41:39
Speaker 2: if we need to later in the week. But hard
41:42
Speaker 2: to avoid this number, Jeed.
41:45
Speaker 1: Tastes just like a little little leapetizer taste of The
41:48
Speaker 1: Seahawks also had gorgeous throwback at Unis today. The other
41:54
Speaker 1: team that is streaking right now. God, this AFC North
41:58
Speaker 1: is so free. Good Cincinnati one and a half point
42:05
Speaker 1: favorite at home against Buffalo. My lean is you gotta
42:14
Speaker 1: take Cincinnati because that both.
42:16
Speaker 2: Yeah, you don't get the line. Why is this not three?
42:18
Speaker 1: Yeah? That Bill's defense is terrible.
42:20
Speaker 2: Again, I'm right there. I'm right there with Chad. I'm
42:22
Speaker 2: bending two people. We might be stepping in it, but
42:26
Speaker 2: what a terrible line. Horrible line this is. This is
42:29
Speaker 2: Bill's fully healthy line. Bills are not fully healthy. They
42:33
Speaker 2: got major issues right now on that defensive side of
42:36
Speaker 2: the ball. I'm right there with you, Chad, Like there's
42:40
Speaker 2: there's certain times we're just playing the numbers here. If
42:43
Speaker 2: this was three and a half three, I leaned towards Bills,
42:47
Speaker 2: especially after the game we just saw from this Bengals team.
42:50
Speaker 2: But and minus one, minus one and a half, what
42:54
Speaker 2: are we doing here? So we'll take We'll take another
42:57
Speaker 2: bet here on this Bengals team and see I see
43:00
Speaker 2: which way this number moves. But IM not sure I'm
43:03
Speaker 2: missing here. I just I feel like the Bengals are
43:06
Speaker 2: a much better team right now. Like Burrow is a different,
43:11
Speaker 2: different guy healthy, and we saw that today, him running
43:14
Speaker 2: outside the pocket, him moving in the pocket. Chris was
43:17
Speaker 2: Chris nailed it like he came back fully healthy after
43:19
Speaker 2: two weeks. I wasn't buying that he was all right,
43:22
Speaker 2: and he was all good today. He had no worries,
43:24
Speaker 2: he was running, he was literally taking dudes on, putting
43:26
Speaker 2: his head down. Yeah dudes, like that's that's a fearless
43:28
Speaker 2: dude right there. So definitely a bad miss to me
43:31
Speaker 2: by me today in the forty nine ers. But this,
43:34
Speaker 2: this Bengals team catching under three at home against a
43:37
Speaker 2: banged up Bills team. I don't care if the extend,
43:40
Speaker 2: if they extended, rest I got it back to Bengals here.
43:43
Speaker 1: And he was running incredibly well, like he did not
43:46
Speaker 1: look concerned at all, and his and his throes were fantastic.
43:51
Speaker 1: So totally agree with you. What were the games you
43:56
Speaker 1: were looking at?
43:59
Speaker 2: Honestly, I want to say it, but I gotta say
44:05
Speaker 2: I'm on the Bears. I know, I know, I gotta
44:12
Speaker 2: do it though, Like it was, it just jumped out
44:14
Speaker 2: to me.
44:14
Speaker 1: Where what's the number on the Bears right now?
44:18
Speaker 2: Six six and a half? I just think people are
44:20
Speaker 2: gonna drink the koliad of the Saints and the fact
44:22
Speaker 2: that they're at home, you know, the only the only
44:27
Speaker 2: reason this would move a ton if they got blown
44:29
Speaker 2: out tonight or we know Fields is gonna be back,
44:31
Speaker 2: But I think Fields will be back by next week
44:33
Speaker 2: and this number could come down to four to four
44:35
Speaker 2: and a half. The Saints, to me, you know they're good.
44:41
Speaker 2: Their defense plays well. I still have a lot of
44:43
Speaker 2: questions about Derek Carr and maybe they fixed it doing
44:47
Speaker 2: this whole thing bringing in Hell and have him being
44:48
Speaker 2: the running quarterback and then taking random deep shots. But
44:52
Speaker 2: it's it's hard not to try to fade the Saints
44:55
Speaker 2: after arguably their best performance by an offense they've had
44:58
Speaker 2: this season. So uh, again, not going crazy. I just
45:01
Speaker 2: threw a little bit on their plus six and you know,
45:07
Speaker 2: I can't believe I'm doing it gotta do it. Tampa
45:12
Speaker 2: plus two in Houston.
45:14
Speaker 1: Oh, I know why, but.
45:19
Speaker 2: I think the book might be out on CJ brother today,
45:23
Speaker 2: and he hasn't in a while, like since that Saints game.
45:27
Speaker 2: He just looks like whatever these defenses have figured out
45:30
Speaker 2: on him and they're taken away from him, he just
45:31
Speaker 2: has not adjusted to it, and they don't. They offensively
45:34
Speaker 2: haven't adjusted to it. So it's not going to be
45:38
Speaker 2: shocking that people are going to come in on Houston here,
45:40
Speaker 2: Like no one likes the Bucks. The Bucks got a
45:43
Speaker 2: really lucky backdoor cover this past week. But I'm just
45:47
Speaker 2: I'm just taking in case they do. The pros do
45:49
Speaker 2: come in on this number. It just feels like this
45:50
Speaker 2: should be a pick. I'm getting plus two right now
45:54
Speaker 2: on you know, this bad Bucks team. But I just
45:57
Speaker 2: I trust Todd Bowles and their defense kind of keep this,
46:00
Speaker 2: keep this defensive scheme going against CJ. CJ just you know,
46:05
Speaker 2: he had plenty of opportunities today, he just did not
46:07
Speaker 2: make the right reads. And it's been a couple of
46:09
Speaker 2: weeks now he's just been this way like after he
46:11
Speaker 2: started so well, get we give him so much grace
46:14
Speaker 2: and you know, kind of overlooked it, and this this
46:17
Speaker 2: week I had a decent amount on Houston, so I
46:20
Speaker 2: was watching a lot of that game, and he just
46:23
Speaker 2: did not look comfortable. And a lot of what the
46:24
Speaker 2: defense was doing was disguising what they're like. Their pre
46:27
Speaker 2: snaps looks were like they'd bring all everyone up to
46:29
Speaker 2: the line and the dns would drop down, the linebackers
46:32
Speaker 2: would rush and he would. It would just completely throw
46:34
Speaker 2: them off these different looks. So as much as I
46:37
Speaker 2: love the shit on and make fun of the Bucks,
46:40
Speaker 2: this is probably a nice spot to back them.
46:42
Speaker 1: Can I just say one thing? Uh, there is a
46:45
Speaker 1: book out there that as we were talking about Cincinnati
46:49
Speaker 1: and Buffalo that had Cincinnati a plus one and a
46:52
Speaker 1: half and I grabbed it. So I'm going to put
46:57
Speaker 1: in the app at plus one and a half, but
47:00
Speaker 1: just so people are aware it might still be out there.
47:03
Speaker 2: What a weird line.
47:04
Speaker 1: Yeah, so go search for it, shop for it everywhere.
47:09
Speaker 1: Is at minus one and a half. This one book
47:11
Speaker 1: was it plus one and a half, and it is
47:14
Speaker 1: it's widely available. Okay, let me recap here Kansas City
47:18
Speaker 1: minus two. We're looking to lean against that. Seattle plus Buffalo.
47:23
Speaker 1: Just don't little little tiny Appetizer on Seattle plus five Cincinnati, Seattle, Baltimore.
47:29
Speaker 1: I mean Buffalo is Cincinnati minus one and a half.
47:32
Speaker 1: We like Cincinnati A lean to that. Bears plus six
47:35
Speaker 1: and a half. I can't believe Simon said it not me.
47:38
Speaker 1: Tampa plus two thinks the book might be out on CJ. Stroud.
47:43
Speaker 1: As a reminder, the favorite podcast is presented by Bet
47:47
Speaker 1: three six five. Bet three sixty five doesn't do ordinary.
47:50
Speaker 1: That's why you get more boosts with them than with
47:52
Speaker 1: anyone else. Every day they powered up the odds on
47:55
Speaker 1: hundreds of bets to give you a chance to win
47:58
Speaker 1: more sixty five boosts specific markets, your winnings, and even parlays.
48:03
Speaker 1: And they don't stop there. Keep an eye out for
48:06
Speaker 1: their biggest and best odds with the incredible super Boost.
48:10
Speaker 1: Check out the boosts and see why it's never ordinary
48:13
Speaker 1: at Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
48:15
Speaker 1: older and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
48:20
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
48:23
Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in
48:26
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply for those listening on AMP.
48:32
Speaker 1: This is our last episode on the platform. Thanks to
48:36
Speaker 1: all the loyal ampers. Thanks to the folks at AMP
48:38
Speaker 1: for being great partners. If you love listening or watching
48:42
Speaker 1: us live, which you should because every point in the
48:45
Speaker 1: line matters, you heard it here tonight. Catch our next
48:48
Speaker 1: episode live on Tuesday one five pm Eastern on Action
48:52
Speaker 1: Network's YouTube channel, covering the entire NFL Week nine board.
48:58
Speaker 1: Or download us from a podcast from Spotify wherever you
49:01
Speaker 1: get your podcast, rate review, subscribe, leave us five stars,
49:03
Speaker 1: say whatever you want. Feedback is a gift. Listen all
49:07
Speaker 1: the way through for a silent hunter. I am Chad
49:09
Speaker 1: Melman until next time, Tuesday, one forty five pm Eastern.
49:13
Speaker 1: Love you. Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If
49:23
Speaker 1: you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
49:26
Speaker 1: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
49:29
Speaker 1: hundred Gambler