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The Favorites - NFL Divisional Round Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites of the Podcast, presented by BET
0:12
Speaker 1: three sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Mellman of the Action Network. Today is
0:17
Speaker 1: our Tuesday Divisional Round episode. We will break down the
0:23
Speaker 1: lines for the best weekend of the NFL season. We
0:27
Speaker 1: will also discuss our exec decision and our as Simon says,
0:32
Speaker 1: do not fret. Thursday, we will have the usual menu
0:35
Speaker 1: foxhol big balls, all that good stuff. We will also
0:40
Speaker 1: get into some totals other bets we like both today
0:44
Speaker 1: and on Thursday, expand a little bit since we've only
0:47
Speaker 1: got four games live from our Tommy John Holmes Studios.
0:52
Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
0:55
Speaker 1: Mike and padre my BFF professional bet or Simon Hunter
0:58
Speaker 1: at O Simon.
1:00
Speaker 2: Hello chat. Yeah, we're looking into this week to have
1:03
Speaker 2: a little bit of a bounce back, right three on
1:04
Speaker 2: three on sides and you know, totals five and one
1:08
Speaker 2: to the under, which was great, but obviously we know
1:10
Speaker 2: people come here for our sides. Pixel. Yeah, hopefully we
1:13
Speaker 2: go above five hundred this week.
1:15
Speaker 1: Yeah. Well, look, we were on the Rams yesterday as
1:18
Speaker 1: we were on the Bucks on Sunday night, And I'm
1:21
Speaker 1: not kidding Matthew Stafford when it looked like he had
1:25
Speaker 1: fumbled the ball when they were up ten to three
1:28
Speaker 1: and had been dominating and the Eagle and the Vikings
1:32
Speaker 1: ran it back. Yeah, I immediately flashed back to Baker
1:37
Speaker 1: the night before All Star quarterback random fluke fumble in
1:44
Speaker 1: a game that they were dominating or starting to dominate.
1:49
Speaker 1: I'm like, are you fucking kidding me? This is happening
1:52
Speaker 1: two nights in a row. Did you feel that way.
1:55
Speaker 2: A little bit? But it's also about this is why
1:57
Speaker 2: playoffs are the best, Right. It's this game of chess,
1:59
Speaker 2: and you're just if your opponent makes this little mistake
2:03
Speaker 2: that dictates the whole game, right, And that's that's what
2:06
Speaker 2: you're talking about there at Baker. So the Stafford play,
2:09
Speaker 2: I was never worried about it, but it also makes
2:11
Speaker 2: me just hate the quarterback position. It's just like that.
2:14
Speaker 2: Even Belichick, I don't know if you saw in the
2:15
Speaker 2: many casts, he's just disgusted by it, and he's just like,
2:18
Speaker 2: only in the NFL would that be allowed to get
2:20
Speaker 2: away with that? Right? Just a little shuffle pass, flick
2:22
Speaker 2: of the wrist at your receiver's ankles basically, and yeah,
2:28
Speaker 2: I feel like we definitely got away one in that play,
2:30
Speaker 2: but I think once you watch that whole game, we
2:32
Speaker 2: were never gonna not cover that game. I mean, even
2:35
Speaker 2: if it was ten ten at that point, I still
2:38
Speaker 2: think long term the Rams would have won that game.
2:40
Speaker 2: We just that game really did well. We talk of
2:41
Speaker 2: all the time, comes down to the quarterbacks and Sam Donald.
2:44
Speaker 2: Back to back worst games of the season form so
2:47
Speaker 2: pretty brutal stretch for Sam Donald.
2:49
Speaker 1: Yeah. I saw that Stafford play in replay, and I
2:52
Speaker 1: thought to myself, that's why we like to bet Matthew Stafford.
2:56
Speaker 1: The guy knew where his receiver was going to be,
3:00
Speaker 1: and without even seeing it, did the veteran savvy move
3:05
Speaker 1: of backhanded flick of the wrist got away with it.
3:10
Speaker 1: Exactly why we like Matthew Stafford.
3:13
Speaker 2: I get why people are get upset because you could
3:15
Speaker 2: you definitely saw the ball moving and becoming loose when
3:18
Speaker 2: he flicked it again. Like you just said, super veteran play,
3:21
Speaker 2: like he had enough on his singer tips to move it.
3:23
Speaker 2: But you definitely saw the ball leaving the palm of
3:25
Speaker 2: his hand when he got hit and was moving. It
3:26
Speaker 2: was just like like you just said, thank God for
3:28
Speaker 2: a veteran quarterback, because that is a guy who's been
3:31
Speaker 2: in the league a long time in his savvy vet.
3:34
Speaker 1: There's one other thing I want to ask you about
3:35
Speaker 1: before we get into the games. So good news, Mike
3:37
Speaker 1: Rabel is back. We lost Doug Peterson last week. We
3:40
Speaker 1: get Mike Rabel back. Yeah this week.
3:43
Speaker 2: Ah.
3:43
Speaker 1: We love betting Frabel, along with Tomlin, one of the
3:45
Speaker 1: best coaches to bet of the past twenty years, whether
3:49
Speaker 1: it's straight up as a dog or as a dog,
3:52
Speaker 1: he always had the Titans coming through for us. Now
3:55
Speaker 1: he's got a talented young QB, a lockdown corner along
3:59
Speaker 1: with the pen. I cannot wait to start betting the
4:01
Speaker 1: Patriots next year. But in reality, off the top of
4:05
Speaker 1: your head, as we inch closer to off season, when
4:09
Speaker 1: we're starting to project these things, how much of a
4:12
Speaker 1: difference do you think it will make with Vrabel as
4:16
Speaker 1: a coach who has historically covered when you start evaluating
4:21
Speaker 1: the Patriots in the off season.
4:23
Speaker 2: You definitely are going to give them a one and
4:26
Speaker 2: a half to two wins bump just because of variable
4:29
Speaker 2: and now you'll see what their off season moves are,
4:31
Speaker 2: what their schedules, like how people have them power rated
4:33
Speaker 2: vice versa your power ratings. And yeah, my initial thought
4:37
Speaker 2: was just yeah, if they have hit on the quarterback position,
4:41
Speaker 2: they could become a juggernaut and what a year or
4:44
Speaker 2: two like if they can draft right, We've seen it.
4:46
Speaker 2: If you if you hit on the quarterback, it shifts
4:48
Speaker 2: the whole confidence of the whole you know, the whole organization.
4:51
Speaker 2: It's it really is life changing. And then if you
4:53
Speaker 2: bringing the right coach, it's even more so. Right, That's
4:55
Speaker 2: that's the key. And we've seen that this season where
4:58
Speaker 2: you know, not that I had a major question about
5:00
Speaker 2: Dan Quinn, but I did, and he came in. He
5:02
Speaker 2: apparently adjusted. He became more of a team player coach,
5:05
Speaker 2: more of a players guy. And you know, Jane Daniels
5:08
Speaker 2: obviously changed organization. Bo Nicks, Sean Payton changed that Denver organization.
5:13
Speaker 2: So yeah, I saw some crazy stat It was basically,
5:16
Speaker 2: Jane Daniels was born in two thousand. That was the
5:19
Speaker 2: last time the Miami Dolphins won a playoff game. So
5:23
Speaker 2: it just shows how it can just be hell if
5:26
Speaker 2: you don't have the right coach to right quarterback in
5:28
Speaker 2: an organization, and if you do hit on it, it
5:30
Speaker 2: changes everything in just a year. So that's what's so
5:32
Speaker 2: cool with the NFL. The quarterback position is just such
5:34
Speaker 2: a special position.
5:35
Speaker 1: Well, that's a great transition to my next question for you,
5:38
Speaker 1: which is on Sunday afternoon, my son was telling me
5:43
Speaker 1: about a bunch of different social handles that are playing
5:47
Speaker 1: this game where they're predicting which coaches are going to
5:50
Speaker 1: land where in the NFL. Every single one of them
5:55
Speaker 1: had the Bears getting Cliff Kingsbury. This was this was
6:00
Speaker 1: before the McCarthy news. And then this morning I read
6:05
Speaker 1: on ESPN dot com Dan Graziano was predicting based on
6:09
Speaker 1: the people he's spoken to, which coaches were going to
6:12
Speaker 1: land where, and he had Brian Flores going to the Bears. So,
6:19
Speaker 1: if you are me, do you prefer with Kingsbury, Mike
6:23
Speaker 1: McCarthy or Brian Flores? Do we prefer falling off the
6:28
Speaker 1: cliff in November? Do we prefer not winning in the playoffs?
6:34
Speaker 1: Do we prefer a coach who was already potentially or
6:39
Speaker 1: could have ruined a franchise quarterback.
6:42
Speaker 2: I would only reason I'll go Cliff is because you
6:44
Speaker 2: just want the offensive guy when you have the quarterback
6:47
Speaker 2: like you do. Like the defense of mentality. Even if
6:50
Speaker 2: you bring in the right coordinator like a Ben Johnson
6:53
Speaker 2: is not He's not going to be there for a
6:55
Speaker 2: long haul. He'll eventually leave for the next better opportunity
6:57
Speaker 2: the offensive coordinator. So to me, you want to get
7:00
Speaker 2: the offensive mine with the quarterback that you guys have,
7:02
Speaker 2: And that makes me so sad to hear. Like again,
7:05
Speaker 2: we like and respect Brian Flores. I don't know if
7:07
Speaker 2: you saw Ryan Fitzpatrick talking about him. It's like this
7:09
Speaker 2: man has to stay and discuss for this guy years
7:12
Speaker 2: and years later. And you know he was the one
7:15
Speaker 2: that was treated well by Brian Flores. He wasn't even
7:17
Speaker 2: the TUA in the relationship. So yeah, it's a man.
7:22
Speaker 2: I feel bad for you, Chad. It's just tough being
7:23
Speaker 2: a Bears fan. And I mean this sounds crazy to say,
7:26
Speaker 2: but yeah, my mentality of it would be I would
7:31
Speaker 2: hope they would just go offensive. And I get why Brian.
7:33
Speaker 2: People love Brian Flores. What he's done with that Viking's
7:35
Speaker 2: defense has been incredible, but you know, I just I
7:38
Speaker 2: can't see that working well, especially the personalities of him
7:40
Speaker 2: being the old school guy where Caleb is the definition
7:44
Speaker 2: of new wave gen Z right, Like, I just I
7:48
Speaker 2: can't see that working well. So yeah, for you, I know,
7:50
Speaker 2: it's painful because we just don't trust the guy at all.
7:52
Speaker 2: But Kingsbury, I guess would be the best fit.
7:54
Speaker 1: It's been an interesting experience going through this with my son.
7:57
Speaker 1: It's like the first time he's feeling invested in who
8:01
Speaker 1: the Bears hire as a coach, right because because the
8:07
Speaker 1: Bears have Caleb and so it feels like we have
8:10
Speaker 1: an opportunity. And you know, the last time we hired
8:13
Speaker 1: a coach Iria Flew was like, we didn't really have
8:16
Speaker 1: high expectations. And so he's feeling it and he's texting
8:23
Speaker 1: me when he should be paying attention to whatever class
8:26
Speaker 1: he's in about the latest thing he's hearing about the
8:28
Speaker 1: Bears coaching search. And I just keep saying to him,
8:33
Speaker 1: imagine the worst possible resolution and then make it worse.
8:41
Speaker 1: If there is a coach out there who's not on
8:43
Speaker 1: the radar the Bear's going to hire. They can hire
8:46
Speaker 1: my high school football coach, not my coach, but the
8:49
Speaker 1: guy who coached my high school football team. They'll find
8:51
Speaker 1: a way to make it look like it's the exact
8:53
Speaker 1: right decision when we all know it's not. So I'm
8:55
Speaker 1: just trying to tempering his expectations. And last night we
9:01
Speaker 1: were talking about it, I'm like, I just don't think
9:03
Speaker 1: you get it. I don't think you get how painful
9:05
Speaker 1: and horrible this is gonna be. I'm sorry for.
9:08
Speaker 2: You and your division. Right Like, you're coming into a
9:10
Speaker 2: vision with Dan Campbell, Lafleur and KOC and it's like, man,
9:15
Speaker 2: you really do need to hit on someone here, because
9:17
Speaker 2: it is you guys are lagging in that category by
9:20
Speaker 2: a mile.
9:21
Speaker 1: The things we do to our children. As a reminder,
9:24
Speaker 1: the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five
9:27
Speaker 1: and now new Bet three sixty five. Customers get one
9:29
Speaker 1: hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets when you bet
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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred be off in
10:00
Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply four games to get through,
10:06
Speaker 1: four sides, four totals, anything else that comes up. The
10:10
Speaker 1: best football weekend during the NFL season, We love the
10:17
Speaker 1: Divisional playoffs. Houston at Kansas City, first game on the board,
10:21
Speaker 1: Saturday afternoon. Kansas City is an eight point favorite at
10:24
Speaker 1: bet three six five. The total was forty one and
10:25
Speaker 1: a half bigger than the Mountains, taller than jgrees half before.
10:34
Speaker 2: Take the hard to the place squee below Kansas City.
10:45
Speaker 1: The line has moved within a very specific narrow band.
10:51
Speaker 1: It opened at seven and a half, got it up
10:54
Speaker 1: to eight and a half, down to eight seven and
10:58
Speaker 1: a half in a lot of spots. The elephant in
11:01
Speaker 1: the room Mahomes is a favorite of more than three,
11:06
Speaker 1: being a historically bad bet versus the combo of home
11:11
Speaker 1: teams and favorites this season and during the wild card
11:15
Speaker 1: being the right side. These teams did play each other
11:20
Speaker 1: about three weeks ago. They played on the twenty first
11:23
Speaker 1: of December. The line was three and a half. Simon.
11:26
Speaker 1: I'm going to dig deeper into what we did in
11:28
Speaker 1: that game. But if you're looking at this and it's eight,
11:31
Speaker 1: it's seven and a half, a difference of four points
11:34
Speaker 1: from the last time they played at home for Kansas City.
11:39
Speaker 1: What do you see here?
11:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, and this is honestly because it is the playoffs
11:44
Speaker 2: to meet Chad, that the books will adjust this way
11:46
Speaker 2: because we know it's just different. And the same thing
11:50
Speaker 2: with my model. My model has this as great value
11:53
Speaker 2: on Houston, right, and it's just because it simply doesn't
11:55
Speaker 2: understand the Mahomes factor. We talked about that last year.
11:59
Speaker 2: I had the forty nine ers as favorites in the
12:03
Speaker 2: Super Bowl, but I still bet the Chiefs. I had
12:07
Speaker 2: the Eagles unfortunately as the favor in the Super Bowl,
12:09
Speaker 2: and I went against it, and I learned that lesson
12:11
Speaker 2: pretty hard that day. It's just like these models, it's
12:13
Speaker 2: like the Tom Brady effect. They just can't compute Mahomes
12:16
Speaker 2: and what that just does to the guys in the
12:18
Speaker 2: other sideline. Right. We always talk about that the guys
12:20
Speaker 2: on the other side, and I'm looking across at my home.
12:22
Speaker 2: Especially in the playoffs, it's different. You know that that
12:25
Speaker 2: killers across the field and he's coming for you. So yeah,
12:28
Speaker 2: in a normal regular season, Chad, we would be hammering
12:31
Speaker 2: the Texans. Here it's CJ as a huge dog against
12:34
Speaker 2: Mahomes who plays with his food. But that changes in
12:37
Speaker 2: the playoffs. So we talked about it a little bit
12:39
Speaker 2: on Sunday night. If you do want to take a
12:40
Speaker 2: position on Houston, I'm not doing it up saying if
12:42
Speaker 2: you do, Chad gave it out. I believe it was
12:44
Speaker 2: five and a half six first half on the Houston number.
12:47
Speaker 2: Dake it Houston, I think there, what Evan are they
12:49
Speaker 2: fourteen and three or fifteen and two this season? First
12:52
Speaker 2: half against the spread? Incredible. They've been incredible, and we've
12:55
Speaker 2: seen the Chiefs do come out slow. I personally just
12:59
Speaker 2: can't do it. I'm even thinking about it right now.
13:01
Speaker 2: I'm getting visions of them in arrow ahead. It's twenty
13:04
Speaker 2: five degrees and it'shus Mahomes first drive touchdown fourteen and
13:09
Speaker 2: four against the first half. So Houston has just been
13:11
Speaker 2: incredible at first half, and yeah, this is and it's
13:15
Speaker 2: just a number in the fact that you've seen a
13:17
Speaker 2: lot of these numbers get bumped up because it is
13:20
Speaker 2: what the sports books need to do. They need to
13:21
Speaker 2: protect against the money line parlays and the teasers. And
13:25
Speaker 2: when this number opened seven and a half, that to
13:27
Speaker 2: me was right, Like I said, my model is this
13:29
Speaker 2: at seven. So it's like, okay, it's up half a
13:32
Speaker 2: point for people doing the seven point teasers, doing the
13:34
Speaker 2: six point teasers, right, that's they're still getting the key number.
13:38
Speaker 2: Now that it is up to eight and a half,
13:40
Speaker 2: you know, that's that's crossed a bunch of key numbers
13:43
Speaker 2: at this point. This is now if you do teaser,
13:44
Speaker 2: this is at two and a half, which is still value.
13:47
Speaker 2: But it's also reason I could still see this keep
13:49
Speaker 2: going up. I could still see the books keep moving
13:51
Speaker 2: this just because the pros that are going to bet Houston.
13:54
Speaker 2: I don't know why they had rushed about it. It's
13:56
Speaker 2: the same thing we're gonna talk about this week. Like
13:58
Speaker 2: if you like the dogs, you kind of can be
14:00
Speaker 2: patient at this point because the numbers have basically moved
14:02
Speaker 2: to where they're going to be at at this point,
14:04
Speaker 2: like they might keep going up because of public money
14:06
Speaker 2: and some professional may they do like the favorites. But yeah,
14:09
Speaker 2: this this spot for me, Like it's crazy to look
14:12
Speaker 2: back on last week. I should have went six and
14:14
Speaker 2: zer on those unders. The only under I didn't hit
14:16
Speaker 2: was that fluke Houston Chargers game, which was like the
14:19
Speaker 2: stupidest over. Like it really killed me too, because I
14:22
Speaker 2: was the start of the week and it was just like,
14:23
Speaker 2: oh god, if I made a huge mistake ben these unders,
14:26
Speaker 2: if we got such bullshit like that. No, it's you
14:29
Speaker 2: gotta trust the numbers, and right here, most people are
14:31
Speaker 2: gonna know if they break it down. It's if you
14:34
Speaker 2: look at these totals and especially this game, this is
14:37
Speaker 2: going to be the lowest total of the week, right,
14:38
Speaker 2: I think it's already down to forty two a lot
14:40
Speaker 2: of books. That's because we saw it last week. Houston
14:43
Speaker 2: has a great pass rush. We know that the Chiefs
14:45
Speaker 2: have struggles on the offensive line. On the flip side,
14:48
Speaker 2: it spags in the playoffs. It spags at home in
14:51
Speaker 2: the playoffs, like they just the Chiefs dominate unless it's
14:53
Speaker 2: Josh Allen. They dominate teams at home in this exact
14:56
Speaker 2: spot defensively. So yeah, if you're looking for my early
14:59
Speaker 2: side right now. On Tuesday, I liked the Chiefs of
15:01
Speaker 2: this number. I'd betted up to nine ten. Once it
15:04
Speaker 2: gains to ten, that's when I stopped. But at this number,
15:06
Speaker 2: I still feel confident in my homes just closing out
15:09
Speaker 2: this Houston team that you know, they got away with
15:12
Speaker 2: them last week. And I do get people's view on this,
15:14
Speaker 2: taking taking CJ in this exact spot. I can't can't
15:17
Speaker 2: say a bad word about it because it is the
15:19
Speaker 2: professional sharp side. But to me, it's like, at what
15:22
Speaker 2: point does the number make sense? A nine and a
15:24
Speaker 2: half ten, I can be talked into Houston at that point,
15:27
Speaker 2: But at nine and below, I think the value still
15:29
Speaker 2: in this Chiefs team.
15:31
Speaker 1: So when they played on the twenty first and the
15:33
Speaker 1: line was three and a half, to me, that was
15:38
Speaker 1: about up to that point, the Chiefs had been winning
15:42
Speaker 1: games by one point two point three points. They'd also
15:46
Speaker 1: been playing sort of with with you know, one arm
15:51
Speaker 1: tied behind their back in terms of the weapons, right
15:55
Speaker 1: they were missing Jalen Watson on defense at cornerback, and
16:01
Speaker 1: we talked about this on the show a bunch. When
16:05
Speaker 1: Spags runs his offense his defense, he really needs to
16:09
Speaker 1: have great coverage in the secondary. Well, it's possible Jalen
16:14
Speaker 1: Watson is coming back this week. They were playing obviously
16:18
Speaker 1: all season without Hollywood Brown. They played most of the
16:22
Speaker 1: season and were just getting DeAndre Hopkins into rhythm in
16:26
Speaker 1: the latter half of the year. Isaiah Picheko, that was
16:29
Speaker 1: one of his first games.
16:30
Speaker 2: The biggest things.
16:32
Speaker 1: That was one of his first games back. Right, So
16:36
Speaker 1: in the latter half of the year, forget about the
16:38
Speaker 1: Broncos game. In the three games before the Broncos game,
16:40
Speaker 1: when they sat everybody, they were favorites on the road
16:44
Speaker 1: against the Browns. Normally you'd automatically want to fade the
16:49
Speaker 1: Chiefs in that spot. They won twenty one to seven.
16:53
Speaker 1: The next week, they're three and a half point favorites
16:56
Speaker 1: at home against the Texans. Again, historically you want to
17:00
Speaker 1: fade Patrick Mahomes as more than a three point favorite,
17:04
Speaker 1: and they're going against a good defense and a good
17:06
Speaker 1: quarterback who struggled, but still a good quarterback. They win
17:10
Speaker 1: by seventeen points. The next weekend, they're on the road again,
17:14
Speaker 1: two point favorites against the Steelers. It's a spot you
17:18
Speaker 1: want to smash. Mike Tomlin at home Rah rah. They
17:23
Speaker 1: cover with these so at some point and we bet
17:27
Speaker 1: by the way we did bet, I went back and looked,
17:29
Speaker 1: we bet the Chiefs against the Texans when they were
17:31
Speaker 1: three and a half point favorites, because we were starting
17:34
Speaker 1: to feel like this was a team that was coming
17:38
Speaker 1: into its own and through the hard phase and realizing
17:42
Speaker 1: how they were going to play once they got to
17:44
Speaker 1: the playoffs. I'm glad you're saying the Chiefs because I
17:48
Speaker 1: wanted to bet the Chiefs and like I needed a
17:50
Speaker 1: little bit of reassurance.
17:52
Speaker 2: And another way, I wanted to bet Houston honestly coming
17:54
Speaker 2: into it, and I was like trying to find reasons,
17:56
Speaker 2: even looking for trends off the wait and see if
17:59
Speaker 2: Evans finds out better ones about why you should back Houston.
18:01
Speaker 2: But my biggest one was just, man, this this feels
18:04
Speaker 2: like you're getting free points here because of these teasers
18:06
Speaker 2: in these parlays. But we talk all the time like
18:09
Speaker 2: there's certain certain numbers that do make sense and when
18:11
Speaker 2: you really dive into the numbers that back it up,
18:13
Speaker 2: and it's like, man, that Houston team they definitely got
18:17
Speaker 2: away of the one last week and that we're let's
18:19
Speaker 2: gonna be a theme this week about certain teams that
18:21
Speaker 2: are a little inflated, overrated from their previous week, and
18:23
Speaker 2: it feels like that might be here with Houston, because
18:26
Speaker 2: I thought this would just be all Chiefs money. And
18:29
Speaker 2: you know, we've had two days now and I've talked
18:31
Speaker 2: to a bunch of different book makers, not just here
18:33
Speaker 2: in Jersey, a couple of guys in PA and it's
18:36
Speaker 2: plenty of Houston money at this point. So I think
18:39
Speaker 2: the public is still in the perspective of this Chiefs
18:42
Speaker 2: team is not this juggernut one seed where I'm on
18:44
Speaker 2: the other way, I'm like, this is one of the
18:46
Speaker 2: best runs we've ever seen, one of the best organizations,
18:48
Speaker 2: and they just always get better as the season goes along,
18:51
Speaker 2: and you just laid it out for people like you
18:54
Speaker 2: saw a turn. As they've gotten back these guys on offense,
18:56
Speaker 2: I've gotten healthy that they can if they want to
18:58
Speaker 2: run up the scroll on these teams, and we've seen
19:00
Speaker 2: the playoffs. They don't take their foot off the gas.
19:03
Speaker 2: Andy Reid leans into and tries to dominate these teams,
19:05
Speaker 2: especially at home.
19:08
Speaker 1: It feels weird to say people are sleeping on them.
19:14
Speaker 1: A fifteen win two time, defending champ number one seed,
19:18
Speaker 1: but all of the attention is on Buffalo and Baltimore.
19:23
Speaker 1: And the one thing I think about with this defense
19:25
Speaker 1: that the Texans have, and everyone gets excited about Danielle
19:28
Speaker 1: Hunter and Will Anderson and how many sacks they had
19:32
Speaker 1: against the Chiefs, against the Chargers and what they did
19:35
Speaker 1: during the year, and I just think to myself, Patrick
19:40
Speaker 1: Mahomes is so hard to sack. They've had a bad
19:43
Speaker 1: left tackle the entire season, and they figured out how
19:46
Speaker 1: to manage it, including the last few weeks when they
19:49
Speaker 1: just moved Joe Tooney out there. Patrick Mahomes on third
19:53
Speaker 1: down knows exactly when to run. He is so frustrating
19:59
Speaker 1: to try to defend. I think he breaks your spirit.
20:03
Speaker 1: I really do. It's a big number. I'm not afraid
20:07
Speaker 1: of it. It's not assignment says, it's not an exact decision,
20:10
Speaker 1: but we're leaning the Chiefs here. And it seems to
20:13
Speaker 1: me you mentioned the under it's forty one and a half.
20:17
Speaker 2: I mean, in Jersey there's Bethrieix five's forty two, but
20:20
Speaker 2: if you shop around there is there is a forty
20:22
Speaker 2: two and a half out there at a very public book.
20:24
Speaker 2: But yeah, so that's literally come down while we've done
20:26
Speaker 2: the show, Like before we hopped on, there's a bunch
20:28
Speaker 2: of forty two and a half, its forty two out there. Now,
20:30
Speaker 2: you're right, it's moving people. It's moving down to forty
20:33
Speaker 2: one and a half in a lot of books. But
20:34
Speaker 2: do we like the under I like it, but it's
20:36
Speaker 2: starting to move through key numbers at this point, like
20:38
Speaker 2: it's at the edge. Is like incredibly swolln On and
20:41
Speaker 2: I literally have this game of forty one, so like, yeah,
20:43
Speaker 2: I like it a forty one and a half sure,
20:45
Speaker 2: but yeah, we're losing a little bit of value there
20:47
Speaker 2: with the big money coming in moving this number.
20:49
Speaker 1: Now, Washington at Detroit Detroit is a nine and a
20:54
Speaker 1: half point favorite. The total is fifty five and a half.
20:58
Speaker 1: This is the primetime game on Saturday night.
21:03
Speaker 2: There's so many many reasons any time, any season is
21:14
Speaker 2: the right time to be with you. Hello, Detroy, do you.
21:27
Speaker 1: Want my first instinct on this? Holy moly, this is
21:33
Speaker 1: a huge number.
21:35
Speaker 2: Yes, Simon says, give me Washington plus nine and a half.
21:37
Speaker 2: Chat When Simon says do it, we do what Simon says,
21:42
Speaker 2: this is an insane number. What is this number is
21:45
Speaker 2: this is this US overreacting too much to last week?
21:48
Speaker 2: And Daniels, I don't think it is all the praise
21:50
Speaker 2: he's getting. I haven't had this amazing tweet that went viral.
21:54
Speaker 2: Zero pun zero turnovers on the road. Only him and
21:56
Speaker 2: Peyton Maney have ever done that in the playoffs. So yeah,
21:58
Speaker 2: we're like we said, we're seeing something special here. But
22:02
Speaker 2: me and you talked about a little bit that was
22:04
Speaker 2: Baker's game that he blew, Like, yeah, his defense, Tampa
22:08
Speaker 2: did make stops on fourth down. Right, we talked about
22:10
Speaker 2: the regression that was coming for Washington. It showed up.
22:13
Speaker 2: They did have the regression on the fourth down and
22:15
Speaker 2: they got the stops. And you know, there was a
22:17
Speaker 2: bunch of different times that Baker could have taken a
22:19
Speaker 2: lead by four points. Right, they had that four point
22:22
Speaker 2: lead he fumbles up.
22:23
Speaker 1: They should have won this game by double digits, like,
22:27
Speaker 1: honest to god, as well as Jaden played, he ran,
22:32
Speaker 1: he threw, he converted at least outside of the red zone. Yeah,
22:36
Speaker 1: but it was seventeen thirteen. The Bucks had just stopped
22:40
Speaker 1: the Commanders in the red zone on fourth down from
22:44
Speaker 1: the goal line, and they were starting to dominate that game.
22:48
Speaker 1: Bucky Irving was starting to dominate that game. Baker was
22:52
Speaker 1: finding Mike Evans whenever he wanted Mike Evans to the
22:55
Speaker 1: point where they had to take Marshawn Lattimore off of
22:58
Speaker 1: Mike Evans start double teaming him. They were going to
23:01
Speaker 1: go up twenty four to thirteen when they got the
23:04
Speaker 1: ball back and Baker fumbled. Like the defense mainly looked
23:09
Speaker 1: good for the Commanders because the Commander's offense engineered so
23:14
Speaker 1: many long, freaking drives. The time of possession was eleven
23:18
Speaker 1: minutes in Washington's favorite and they had twenty five more plays.
23:23
Speaker 1: If you dig into the stats on this game, Baker
23:26
Speaker 1: was fifteen of eighteen with the yards per attempt of
23:30
Speaker 1: nine and a half. Like, what worries me about this
23:35
Speaker 1: is what is Jared Goff going to do to this defense?
23:39
Speaker 2: I mean, he might do well, honestly though. The fear
23:41
Speaker 2: for me is the running game of That's why I
23:43
Speaker 2: think this number makes sense when it's moved so high
23:46
Speaker 2: above seven again once again protecting against tezers and everything
23:48
Speaker 2: like that, this is going to be and everyone's parlay.
23:52
Speaker 2: Why would like Chads is breaking down you? Why would
23:54
Speaker 2: Detroit lose this game, right, they are arguably the best
23:58
Speaker 2: running team of football going against the Commanders team that
24:01
Speaker 2: I mean, we know the deal. They can't stop the run,
24:03
Speaker 2: Like you said, they did really well early on stopping Bucky,
24:07
Speaker 2: but once the game gets into the second half and
24:09
Speaker 2: they're worn out that front line, you can run the
24:11
Speaker 2: ball in Washington. Now, you know, we're in a different
24:14
Speaker 2: stratus for at this point, especially if you know Montgomery's back.
24:17
Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, it's the ultimate combos So that's why
24:21
Speaker 2: I understand the move. But to me, it's really all
24:24
Speaker 2: about the fourth downs and that's what I'm banking here,
24:26
Speaker 2: bet in this summer where it's this game is basically
24:29
Speaker 2: to come down to both sides and what they can
24:30
Speaker 2: do on fourth downs. And you know, James Daniels, I
24:34
Speaker 2: don't there's no one on Detroit's front seven that can
24:38
Speaker 2: stay with him and stop him. Like they don't have
24:40
Speaker 2: that X factor that can slow him down and kind
24:43
Speaker 2: of change the game with what we've seen Jane Daniels do,
24:46
Speaker 2: which is he's so cool, common collective. You know exactly
24:49
Speaker 2: when to run, when to make the right pass, when
24:51
Speaker 2: to make the right read. And you know we knew
24:54
Speaker 2: going to that game that whoever made the mistake was
24:56
Speaker 2: going to lose. He was the vet in that game, right,
24:59
Speaker 2: Like you just said, Baker with that fumbo stupid. But
25:01
Speaker 2: the really dumb bonehead to play by Baker was him
25:04
Speaker 2: trying to run the ball himself, say hand it off
25:05
Speaker 2: the Bucky again stopped on that short what was that
25:08
Speaker 2: second and one or third and one? And then they
25:10
Speaker 2: get stuffed the next play.
25:11
Speaker 1: Right in the next play, the center snapped it right,
25:15
Speaker 1: anybody ready ready, and so the whole thing was blown up.
25:18
Speaker 2: And like again, that's a veteran team making those stupid
25:22
Speaker 2: mistakes and clutch moments. On the flip side, Jane and
25:25
Speaker 2: Daniels once again, two minute drill drove the field whatever
25:28
Speaker 2: that was, four minutes left in the game, ate all
25:29
Speaker 2: the clock up, perfect drive, sailed it with a field goal.
25:32
Speaker 2: It's you know, we talk all the time, there's just
25:35
Speaker 2: certain guys that you've never seen it before and you
25:38
Speaker 2: have to adjust to it. And like Chad just said,
25:40
Speaker 2: he got lucky. Jane Daniels, he put us team in
25:42
Speaker 2: the best position, but we just broke it down. Baker
25:45
Speaker 2: lost that game. He was all set up for Baker
25:48
Speaker 2: on multiple times to either close the game out or
25:50
Speaker 2: go up two scores and kind of put the nail
25:52
Speaker 2: on the dagger right end that game and nail the
25:54
Speaker 2: coffin and end that game. And you know he just
25:57
Speaker 2: didn't do it. On the flip side. As much respect
26:00
Speaker 2: we do have for Thisroit Detroit team, I mean, this
26:03
Speaker 2: is gonna shock people. I actually like the over two
26:04
Speaker 2: in this game. It's fifty five. It's a huge over.
26:07
Speaker 2: But this is just everything about this game just scream shootout,
26:10
Speaker 2: like there's nothing defensively. I know people are like, well,
26:14
Speaker 2: look at their last game against the Vikings, aren't we
26:17
Speaker 2: all in agreement? That was more about sam Donold than
26:19
Speaker 2: anything else. Even if you break down that film, he
26:22
Speaker 2: had guys open and you know that Jane Daniels ain't
26:26
Speaker 2: going to miss those throws. I don't think this kid
26:27
Speaker 2: is just so poised. And you know the pros I
26:31
Speaker 2: talked to that are betting against him in this spot.
26:33
Speaker 2: The reasoning in his sound right, it's really relying on
26:36
Speaker 2: that offense to Detroit and the fact that they're they're
26:39
Speaker 2: betting on what we bet on last week because it
26:40
Speaker 2: was a fourth down regression from that team in Washington,
26:44
Speaker 2: which you know, we know it's gonna happen. Me and
26:46
Speaker 2: chatted ready for that, But I also think, you know
26:48
Speaker 2: what he did last week? What were they were they
26:50
Speaker 2: sixty percent? I've been on fourth down last week, but
26:52
Speaker 2: that feels right rather than I think they're eighty percent
26:55
Speaker 2: or something above that for the whole season, Like sixty
26:57
Speaker 2: percent makes more sense. I saw special. Jane Daniels is
27:00
Speaker 2: so yeah for me in this matchup, Chad. I know
27:04
Speaker 2: it's crazy, but of all the games this week, this
27:06
Speaker 2: one feels like not the most inflated line, but it
27:10
Speaker 2: really does. Of all the lines, like this is the
27:12
Speaker 2: one that doesn't seem right to me at all. And
27:15
Speaker 2: you know the fact that you can get Jane Daniels
27:18
Speaker 2: right now at plus three eighty plus four hundred a
27:21
Speaker 2: couple of books straight up to win this game, how
27:23
Speaker 2: do I not bet that? Like there is value there
27:25
Speaker 2: facing the Detroit team that has had issue stopping really
27:28
Speaker 2: high powered offenses, and we've seen, you know, Lions are incredible.
27:33
Speaker 2: The one game most recently they did lose to Josh
27:35
Speaker 2: Allen was a shootout. I think it was forty eight
27:38
Speaker 2: to forty two. And that's that's my envision if me
27:41
Speaker 2: and you are betting this Washington team. We think they
27:43
Speaker 2: could pull the upside off. That's where're gonna need this
27:45
Speaker 2: to be. It's going to be a forty to thirty three,
27:47
Speaker 2: forty to thirty five type of win for this Jane
27:50
Speaker 2: Daniels team. So yeah, I know it's a lot to
27:52
Speaker 2: put on this rookie, but he's just different. And we've
27:54
Speaker 2: talked about it, so you know, could be in my words,
27:56
Speaker 2: come next week, next Tuesday, if he just gets absolutely
27:59
Speaker 2: rolled in this matchup. But I just after watching them
28:02
Speaker 2: back to back starts now against my own team now
28:05
Speaker 2: in the playoffs, and it's just his confidence is pois,
28:07
Speaker 2: especially to close these games out. I have to come
28:09
Speaker 2: to terms with this kid as a unique freak. He's
28:11
Speaker 2: just one of the kinds. So to me, this is
28:13
Speaker 2: a disrespectful line of Jane Daniels, And you know, I
28:16
Speaker 2: feel like we're getting a ton of value here just
28:17
Speaker 2: because there is so much love and respect for this
28:20
Speaker 2: Lions team show.
28:21
Speaker 1: I'm really surprised to hear this all from you, not
28:28
Speaker 1: that you don't like the Lions at nine and a half,
28:30
Speaker 1: but that the Commanders would be your Simon says with
28:35
Speaker 1: a rookie quarterback.
28:36
Speaker 2: But he did take the Eagles.
28:38
Speaker 1: What's that?
28:39
Speaker 2: So he did take the Eagles?
28:40
Speaker 1: But yeah, yeah, well, I mean it's just it's just
28:45
Speaker 1: it's a hard one to swallow, it really is.
28:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's tough. I mean again, because we love the Lions.
28:51
Speaker 2: We've loved them all season chat I mean, deep down,
28:54
Speaker 2: do I really want them to lose here? No, it's
28:56
Speaker 2: this is the sleeper team for me, just like the
28:58
Speaker 2: Buffalo that I want to win the Super Bowl. Their
29:00
Speaker 2: fans deserve it. But when you go through their numbers,
29:02
Speaker 2: it's like they couldn't have picked a more trap team
29:06
Speaker 2: for this Detroit team, like everything they can do offensively
29:10
Speaker 2: and Washington is going to give major problems this Detroit defense.
29:13
Speaker 2: And I just this is the dream scenario for me,
29:15
Speaker 2: Like a high scoring playoff game total of fifty five.
29:19
Speaker 2: I love it. And I love them taking the over
29:20
Speaker 2: here because you know me, I love under especially when
29:23
Speaker 2: it's above fifty, but not this one. Indoors track me
29:26
Speaker 2: between these two teams, I can't wait. You're never gonna
29:28
Speaker 2: feel comfortable either what side you're on this entire game.
29:31
Speaker 2: I could see the Troy gain up by seventeen at
29:33
Speaker 2: one point and we're still going to be like, you
29:35
Speaker 2: know what, we got a chance, Chad, we got a
29:37
Speaker 2: chance covering this big one.
29:38
Speaker 1: Well that's the thing. It's like the number is so
29:39
Speaker 1: big and Jayden Daniels is such a wild card that
29:43
Speaker 1: and they do go for it so frequently on fourth down.
29:46
Speaker 1: The variance is just so much higher, Like the chance
29:49
Speaker 1: to score a lot of points is going to be there.
29:52
Speaker 1: That's I was not like immediately when I saw this
29:56
Speaker 1: fifty five and a half, I'm like, oh, yeah, we're
29:58
Speaker 1: going to be on the under in this game. And
30:02
Speaker 1: so this is a completely This is like the alternative
30:07
Speaker 1: the opposite day Simon taking the huge rookie underdog and
30:13
Speaker 1: the huge over basket.
30:16
Speaker 2: You know, it's gonna be a lot for me to
30:17
Speaker 2: take it over because I just I always want to
30:19
Speaker 2: take under. So yeah, I really do have a vision
30:21
Speaker 2: for this game. I'm hoping it pans out that way.
30:24
Speaker 1: Los Angeles Rams at the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are
30:27
Speaker 1: six point favorites. The total is forty three and a half.
30:30
Speaker 1: This is the Sunday afternoon game. It opened at five
30:34
Speaker 1: and a half. It's bumped up to six. Executive decision Eagles.
30:39
Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are you
30:43
Speaker 2: have your honors? Text cut, executive decision, Let's go.
30:49
Speaker 1: What I don't get is on November twenty fourth, the
30:54
Speaker 1: Eagles were three point favorites on the road in LA.
31:01
Speaker 1: So obviously we realize home field means a lot less
31:06
Speaker 1: in the NFL this year. But what bookmakers are basically
31:10
Speaker 1: saying by making this game six in Philly after making
31:14
Speaker 1: it three in LA, is that LA's home field is zero.
31:21
Speaker 1: There is no advantage to playing in LA. There is
31:24
Speaker 1: not even from a crowd perspective. Forget it. There's no
31:27
Speaker 1: advantage to practicing all week at home, to being in
31:31
Speaker 1: your bed until Saturday night, to not traveling like there
31:36
Speaker 1: is zero. There is not even a one point advantage
31:40
Speaker 1: for the Rams to play in LA. That to me
31:43
Speaker 1: is what bookmakers are saying in this game.
31:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, I wouldn't overact to it too much. So it's
31:48
Speaker 2: also it's it's week to week with bookmakers, right, they're
31:52
Speaker 2: making the lines for that week. They don't really think
31:55
Speaker 2: about the previous line and where the value was in
31:58
Speaker 2: that for home field. And you know, to me, is
32:00
Speaker 2: someone that had Green Bay power rate are just a
32:03
Speaker 2: little higher and a higher grade. Yeah, I have this
32:06
Speaker 2: line at six and a half, so it's only a
32:07
Speaker 2: half point difference than what I had great on Green Bay.
32:11
Speaker 2: But I also think I'm my model and everything else
32:14
Speaker 2: is kind of underrating this Egles team, which we can
32:16
Speaker 2: dive into. You're of the sense that, you know, it
32:19
Speaker 2: feels like a lot of pros right now we're rating
32:20
Speaker 2: this RAMS team, and I think it is because of
32:22
Speaker 2: their model. And you know, we saw them come in
32:25
Speaker 2: heavy on the six and a half when it opened
32:27
Speaker 2: on this RAMS team, and the book makers, like you said,
32:29
Speaker 2: immediately moved to five and a half, took some Egles
32:32
Speaker 2: of money, bumped up to six, and now they're moving
32:33
Speaker 2: a couple of books our backup to six and a half.
32:35
Speaker 2: So it could be the sense of the public and
32:39
Speaker 2: the pros early on we're thinking, you know, that's great
32:41
Speaker 2: value on the Eagles, and me and you are hoping
32:44
Speaker 2: they're going to get caught here because I'm with you.
32:46
Speaker 2: I love this Eagles team. I think this is what
32:49
Speaker 2: we love in the playoffs. Of team in first round
32:53
Speaker 2: doesn't look that good because of expectations, and people hold
32:57
Speaker 2: that against in the next round, and a team that
32:59
Speaker 2: people didn't think we're gonna win or be that good
33:02
Speaker 2: gets a little overrated because of what they did in
33:04
Speaker 2: their previous game. And I think we both had the
33:07
Speaker 2: same view of that Vikings game that, yes, that first
33:11
Speaker 2: drive by Stafford Vin Didge Stafford, I thought they were
33:14
Speaker 2: gonna win that thirty five to ten or something like that.
33:17
Speaker 2: He was just gonna pretty close. Yeah, put up a
33:20
Speaker 2: ton of points. But when you go into it that offense,
33:23
Speaker 2: you know, take away the defensive touchdown. They put up
33:26
Speaker 2: twenty points against that Vikings defense in which they should
33:29
Speaker 2: have dominated, like they had that team on their heels
33:32
Speaker 2: basically the whole game. They had a good field position
33:34
Speaker 2: basically the whole game because they had sacked Darnold about
33:36
Speaker 2: nine times in that game, had a bunch of turnovers.
33:38
Speaker 2: So you dive into the numbers. Is Higbee really that
33:43
Speaker 2: important to the Rams because those first two drives when
33:46
Speaker 2: he was in there, they looked incredible moving the ball.
33:49
Speaker 2: Five targets, five catches, Yeah, and then he leaves and
33:53
Speaker 2: it kind of falls apart. Puka had nine targets, He
33:55
Speaker 2: had five catches for forty forty yards. Cooper Cup What
33:58
Speaker 2: has happened to Cooper Cup, Like, I mean, there's tons
34:01
Speaker 2: of jokes going around the internet, but I don't know
34:03
Speaker 2: what the hell is real, what's going on there. But
34:05
Speaker 2: he had one catch for twenty nine yards Cooper Cup
34:08
Speaker 2: in that game.
34:09
Speaker 1: That it's not like a great catch though, yeah it
34:13
Speaker 1: was a great.
34:13
Speaker 2: Catch, but it's just bizarre where it's like something something
34:17
Speaker 2: is off. We talked about going into something's been off
34:19
Speaker 2: about Stafford in this offense for weeks now, and they have,
34:23
Speaker 2: you know, becoming in these playoffs. They had moved to
34:24
Speaker 2: a defensive team, So maybe I am underrating their defense
34:27
Speaker 2: too much, But I do think that was just about
34:30
Speaker 2: Sam Donald. Like the dude was holding them the ball
34:32
Speaker 2: for over four or five seconds in his pocket. Me
34:36
Speaker 2: and you watched him all season. Hell, I lost so
34:38
Speaker 2: much money on him early in the year. I was
34:40
Speaker 2: obsessed with Sam Donald watching that offense. And I did move.
34:43
Speaker 2: I turned it around and gave them a ton of credit.
34:45
Speaker 2: But that Sam Donald we saw these last two weeks,
34:48
Speaker 2: That's what I thought the season was gonna be with him.
34:50
Speaker 2: Like this guy who holds onto the ball too long,
34:52
Speaker 2: He's indecisive in the pocket, he is not comfortable in
34:55
Speaker 2: the read and reading the offense. That was not him
34:57
Speaker 2: for this season. He was so comfortable, so confident, that
35:00
Speaker 2: pass heavy offense. You know, we just what happened these
35:03
Speaker 2: last two games is bizarre. And that's we talk all
35:06
Speaker 2: the time, that's the mental side of football, right and
35:08
Speaker 2: we see that especially here with Sam Darnold. And we
35:12
Speaker 2: do want to give credit to the Rams defense. They
35:14
Speaker 2: did play really well. The Eagles are a different beast
35:17
Speaker 2: and now you have Okay, they weren't even home, right,
35:21
Speaker 2: they're in Arizonas they have to fly home on Monday,
35:24
Speaker 2: back to LA on our short week, now fly out
35:27
Speaker 2: east to come play in Philly, and what's going to
35:29
Speaker 2: be a thirty degrees game that starts at three pm,
35:32
Speaker 2: so gonna end up being a night game at one point.
35:34
Speaker 2: And you know that's not the best spot for Stafford
35:37
Speaker 2: in these exact situations. I mean, if you go through
35:40
Speaker 2: even this season, not that they've had an easy schedule,
35:43
Speaker 2: but he never really had to play outdoors in the
35:45
Speaker 2: cold and basically any game this year. And you just
35:49
Speaker 2: I still think in my mind too, I came to
35:51
Speaker 2: the season thinking I had Stafford from years past. We've
35:54
Speaker 2: just seen it's just different, Like Stafford is not the
35:56
Speaker 2: guy he was of the past. They are a different
35:58
Speaker 2: offense and they want to do be a run heavy,
36:00
Speaker 2: front first type of team with Williams, which makes sense, right,
36:03
Speaker 2: that's part of their identity. But we've seen these two
36:07
Speaker 2: teams play earlier this year. Eagles, you know, they put
36:10
Speaker 2: up thirty seven. I know, if you look back, you
36:12
Speaker 2: see the Rams put up twenty one. Of that last
36:16
Speaker 2: touchdown they scored in the final minute, it really was
36:18
Speaker 2: thirty seven to twelve. Like that was not by any metric,
36:22
Speaker 2: even that close of a game anyway, So I do
36:25
Speaker 2: think the publics are raiding and it's just a great
36:28
Speaker 2: matchup once again for this Eagles team, like they if
36:30
Speaker 2: they want to lean on the run here they can
36:32
Speaker 2: do it. This is a very young, talented, very talented
36:36
Speaker 2: front line of the Rams. Well, they are very young,
36:38
Speaker 2: and we've seen they struggle against really good run dominant
36:41
Speaker 2: teams this season. So yeah, for me, if this was
36:45
Speaker 2: in La Indoors, I probably would have a different grade
36:48
Speaker 2: on this number. But the fact that we're getting the
36:51
Speaker 2: Eagles at home in this exact spot, I just love
36:53
Speaker 2: the Eagles defensive role and shock another game. I like
36:56
Speaker 2: the under here. I just I just can't see the
36:58
Speaker 2: Rams putting up any type of points and Eagles to me,
37:01
Speaker 2: will just be run heavy. I know people don'tant to
37:03
Speaker 2: hear they want to hear it Jalen Hurts throwing the
37:04
Speaker 2: ball twenty five thirty times, but there's just no there's
37:07
Speaker 2: gonna be no need for in this matchup. You just
37:09
Speaker 2: gotta lean in your strength here with the run game,
37:10
Speaker 2: and just just feels like another twenty five to ten,
37:13
Speaker 2: twenty four to ten type of win for this Eagles team.
37:16
Speaker 2: It's just I just can't see how the Rams put
37:18
Speaker 2: up multiple grid drives against this Eagles defense. Where the
37:21
Speaker 2: Eagle strength is that secondary and that's to me, that's
37:24
Speaker 2: the strength of this Rams team with Cooper and Pooka,
37:27
Speaker 2: and it's just not been that way this later half
37:29
Speaker 2: of the season. So yeah, I'm with Chattier. I love
37:31
Speaker 2: this Eagles. I honestly would bet it up to seven.
37:34
Speaker 2: So even if you're like, my only book is only
37:36
Speaker 2: shown six and a half, I still would take that number.
37:38
Speaker 2: I still think there's value there. But we just talked
37:40
Speaker 2: about it. If you want to do teasers, there's plenty
37:42
Speaker 2: of good options this week to tease as well.
37:45
Speaker 1: RAMS had one cold game this year. I don't know
37:48
Speaker 1: if you remember it. I do. It was the New
37:51
Speaker 1: York Jets, and I believe, yeah, I believe we were
37:55
Speaker 1: on the.
37:55
Speaker 2: Jets and the under. That was a good undergame, and
37:59
Speaker 2: it was the.
37:59
Speaker 1: Game I think, I think where Jeff Ulbrick consistently went
38:02
Speaker 1: forward and fourth down in a game where it was clear.
38:06
Speaker 2: From right. I do remember that.
38:09
Speaker 1: Yeah, any number, if he had twelve points, he was
38:11
Speaker 1: going to win the game. And of course he went
38:13
Speaker 1: forward and fourth down every opportunity, including on his own
38:16
Speaker 1: thirty and they end up losing. The number is the
38:21
Speaker 1: last time the Eagles played the Rams. Freakish. Yeah, four
38:27
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty one total yards, seven yards per play.
38:30
Speaker 1: The Eagles had five sacks. Don't forget. That was the game.
38:34
Speaker 1: Saquon ran for two hundred and fifty five yards. I
38:38
Speaker 1: am not going to be fooled by the Rams dominance
38:43
Speaker 1: against the Vikings. When the Eagles are so physically dominant,
38:51
Speaker 1: their offensive line is not the Vikings offensive line. Their
38:55
Speaker 1: defensive line, as good as the Vikings defense is, is
38:59
Speaker 1: not the Vikings defensive line. These are physical, aggressive, really
39:07
Speaker 1: powerful line of scrimmage opportunities for the Eagles to dominate.
39:13
Speaker 2: Yeah, and amazing stat from Evan Stafford's only outdoor game
39:17
Speaker 2: forty degrees or quarter since twenty twenty one, So twenty
39:20
Speaker 2: twenty one that Jets game, so like he just never
39:23
Speaker 2: plays outdoors in the cold, and Jad just broke that game.
39:26
Speaker 2: If you go back and watch that Jets game, they
39:28
Speaker 2: won that game thirty different ways. They basically wear the
39:31
Speaker 2: offense for the RAMS team, basically just giving them short
39:34
Speaker 2: fields time and time again. They're not gonna have that
39:36
Speaker 2: same scenario here against this Eagles team, who is well coached,
39:40
Speaker 2: doesn't do stupid plays like that. And you know, as
39:43
Speaker 2: you just broke it down, they have gotten better this
39:46
Speaker 2: RAMS team defensively, but you have to go back and
39:49
Speaker 2: look at the competition they've done it against. Now they're
39:51
Speaker 2: going against ar wab Be, the best run team of
39:52
Speaker 2: football with the best pass defense in football, and it's
39:55
Speaker 2: just a really perfect matchup for this Eagles team. Honestly, Like,
39:59
Speaker 2: I actually, as an Eagles fan, wanted Sam Donald, but
40:03
Speaker 2: after watching that Rams game, I'm just as happy to
40:04
Speaker 2: get them. They're just I don't think they're the same
40:06
Speaker 2: team as they were even two years ago. Right, They're
40:09
Speaker 2: just I think Stafford's in a much different stage of
40:11
Speaker 2: his career.
40:12
Speaker 1: AJ Brown even at one hundred yards in a touchdown
40:15
Speaker 1: in that game, the last time he was truly inspired.
40:19
Speaker 1: But boom, boom bam, Simon. A lot of things went
40:25
Speaker 1: sideways over the weekend, coaching misshaps, bad calls by officials,
40:30
Speaker 1: Kansas City being given a bye week, But the biggest
40:33
Speaker 1: impact on performance was simple comfort levels. The Bills and
40:38
Speaker 1: Ravens looked incredibly comfortable and rolled the victory, and just
40:42
Speaker 1: last night the Rams made Sam Donald almost criminally uncomfortable
40:47
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40:50
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41:45
Speaker 1: best for last. Baltimore at Buffalo.
41:50
Speaker 2: Good afternoon everyone. This is Van Miller and the road
41:53
Speaker 2: to the Super.
41:53
Speaker 1: Bowl goes through Orchard Park.
41:55
Speaker 2: New York.
41:56
Speaker 1: It's playoff time. It is bedlam, it isium, it is
42:01
Speaker 1: fan noemodium, it is fantastic. Depending on where you look,
42:08
Speaker 1: Buffalo is a one point favorite and the total is
42:11
Speaker 1: fifty one and a half. This game is at six
42:13
Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern on Sunday Night. It's all over the place,
42:17
Speaker 1: though Some places have the Bills minus one. Other places
42:21
Speaker 1: the Ravens minus one. I've seen the bills as high
42:25
Speaker 1: as plus one and a half. You know. On Sunday Night.
42:29
Speaker 1: Producer Gifford was very upset after the show because he
42:33
Speaker 1: thought you and I were fighting when you said you
42:36
Speaker 1: liked the bills, and I thought it was overreacting to
42:41
Speaker 1: the to the Bill's victory, And so are we still fighting?
42:49
Speaker 1: Who do we trust the most in this game? Lamar
42:52
Speaker 1: or Josh.
42:54
Speaker 2: No, I think the line's been drawing the sand. You
42:56
Speaker 2: think Lamar's the MVP. I think Josh's MVP. You love
42:59
Speaker 2: this Ravens team, love this Bills team. There's no there's
43:02
Speaker 2: no fighting. We're just two men with two different opinions,
43:04
Speaker 2: and someone's going to be right, someone's going to be wrong. Chad.
43:09
Speaker 2: I'm seeing basically every book has the Ravens as a favorite.
43:14
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's possible. It's updated. Like, yeah, to be fair,
43:18
Speaker 1: I got caught up doing something before the show began.
43:21
Speaker 1: Normally I'm checking all the lines right before we come on,
43:24
Speaker 1: and the last time I checked them was like ten
43:25
Speaker 1: o'clock this morning. So it's very possible that right now
43:29
Speaker 1: the Bills are no longer the favorite and they are
43:32
Speaker 1: now an underdog of one.
43:33
Speaker 2: Hey, you're a squirrel. You're forging for nuts before the show.
43:36
Speaker 2: I get it. But this line is there's the truth.
43:39
Speaker 1: I am starving and I didn't eat before the show
43:44
Speaker 1: and it was a mistake.
43:46
Speaker 2: No, that's I never eat before the show. You think
43:48
Speaker 2: better when you're hungry. It's truely true. It is. Look
43:52
Speaker 2: at it this line, honestly, Chad, I told you this
43:55
Speaker 2: is what was going to happen. I really knew that
43:57
Speaker 2: this was gonna flip, just because I know you thought
44:00
Speaker 2: that public was over overacting to the Bills game, but
44:03
Speaker 2: in my mind, it was like they're going to overact
44:06
Speaker 2: to that Ravens game like that was. I mean, Derrick
44:09
Speaker 2: Henry just looks like the ultimate game changer. Like that,
44:12
Speaker 2: people in their mind are going to say, this is
44:14
Speaker 2: what Lamar needed to get him over the hump of
44:17
Speaker 2: a Josh Allen or the Chiefs. Right, this is the difference.
44:20
Speaker 2: You got Derrick Henry, the ultimate game changer him and
44:23
Speaker 2: him and Lamar are the one two punch. And I
44:25
Speaker 2: mean you touch on a little bit. You said to me,
44:27
Speaker 2: aren't you scared that the Bills won't be able to
44:29
Speaker 2: stop it? Yeah? Of course. Like I mean, if you
44:32
Speaker 2: go back and watch the first time they played, I
44:35
Speaker 2: think the first carrier or whatever it was, might have
44:37
Speaker 2: been the first quarter, like Derek Henry was busting this
44:40
Speaker 2: insane run for a touchdown, just grown man shit. And
44:44
Speaker 2: I get where you're coming from with this Ravens team,
44:46
Speaker 2: and public and professionals agree with you. We've seen this
44:49
Speaker 2: number flip now because so much money has come in
44:51
Speaker 2: on this Ravens team, and this is exactly where I
44:54
Speaker 2: want to be. I'm getting now the Bills as a
44:56
Speaker 2: home dog. This is what I wanted and nothing shame
45:00
Speaker 2: true me. It's like this is the exact spot, like
45:02
Speaker 2: this Bill's locker room being told they're a dog here,
45:06
Speaker 2: Josh Allen being a home dog. You know, Evan or
45:10
Speaker 2: maybe it was Matt Mitchell our slack was talking in
45:12
Speaker 2: our slack that this is the first time since nineteen
45:15
Speaker 2: seventy the Bills are a home dog in the playoffs.
45:19
Speaker 1: Its first first time. I think Matt Mitchell put this
45:22
Speaker 1: in the chat. Isn't this the first time they've ever
45:25
Speaker 1: been a home dog in the playoffs.
45:27
Speaker 2: I just told you since nineteen seventy, I.
45:29
Speaker 1: Know, but I think that's the beginning of their That's
45:33
Speaker 1: our first home playoff game, I believe.
45:35
Speaker 2: Yeah, So this is pretty pretty special, unique opportunity here, Chad,
45:39
Speaker 2: and does Lamar deserve that type of respect? Yes, we
45:43
Speaker 2: just broke it down. This man might be the three
45:45
Speaker 2: time MVP should be. He's got arguably the best running
45:51
Speaker 2: back or second best running back in all football, and
45:54
Speaker 2: Derrick Henry and you know we talk they have all
45:57
Speaker 2: pros across the defense. Like you know, Rakewan and Hambleton
46:03
Speaker 2: are just the ultimate combo for that defense. And you
46:07
Speaker 2: know we've seen them now in this second half really
46:09
Speaker 2: make a huge adjustment and just get so much better.
46:12
Speaker 2: But I told you, I just can't get over the
46:15
Speaker 2: fact that if Josh Allen has the ball and the
46:18
Speaker 2: opportunity to go win this game, I have the ultimate
46:21
Speaker 2: faith of him in this exact spot where Lamar Chad,
46:24
Speaker 2: I just do not. I do not if he needs
46:26
Speaker 2: to have a final drive to make you know, a
46:28
Speaker 2: winner take all type of moment for Lamar in this
46:30
Speaker 2: playoff in this spot, I just don't have the faith
46:32
Speaker 2: in him. So this one really is tough because the
46:34
Speaker 2: number you can throw it out right, we both know
46:36
Speaker 2: it's like one and a half. If this game does
46:39
Speaker 2: come down to one team winning by one, I'll eat
46:41
Speaker 2: my fucking words. But this this game feels like, you know,
46:45
Speaker 2: either a field goal to a touchdown type of win
46:47
Speaker 2: where it's it's going to be one team kind of
46:50
Speaker 2: dominating the other team, kind of getting a late late
46:53
Speaker 2: driver or a back door here. And when I really
46:56
Speaker 2: dive into it, yes, the numbers are not great for
46:59
Speaker 2: this Bills team, especially against a type of team that
47:01
Speaker 2: this Ravens team is. But I just keep keep going
47:04
Speaker 2: back to the fact that it's Josh Allen as a
47:05
Speaker 2: home dog in this exact spot. And if you look
47:08
Speaker 2: at the Action app, the Action app, no one believes
47:11
Speaker 2: in them. It's all the money. All the tickets right
47:13
Speaker 2: now are all Baltimore. So I just love this spot.
47:16
Speaker 2: This just feels like the perfect spot to back the Bills.
47:19
Speaker 2: And my dream scenario Bills win big, dominate, Chiefs look bad.
47:24
Speaker 2: They go to Kansas City as somehow a road favorite.
47:26
Speaker 2: Mahomes is a home dog and Arrowhead Like, that's my
47:29
Speaker 2: dream set up right now if you're trying to get
47:31
Speaker 2: there with this Chiefs team. So yeah, I can't believe
47:36
Speaker 2: that they are up TI plus one and a half,
47:38
Speaker 2: this Bill's team right now as a home dog, So
47:40
Speaker 2: I can't help it that much.
47:43
Speaker 1: It makes no sense to bet them at one, like
47:46
Speaker 1: you might as well bet them on the money line, right.
47:51
Speaker 2: Yeah, we're like we talk all the time, like if
47:55
Speaker 2: you are scared off by the number, it's a good
47:57
Speaker 2: tease number, and now I can get them up to
47:59
Speaker 2: seven or if you do a and a half point teaser,
48:00
Speaker 2: you get up to seven and a half. So, like
48:03
Speaker 2: I said, though on Sunday night, I could easily be
48:06
Speaker 2: flipped on this game if the if that had gone
48:09
Speaker 2: with Chat thought, Chat thought, what do you think the
48:11
Speaker 2: Bills would be a two point favorite at this point
48:13
Speaker 2: or something like that?
48:14
Speaker 1: Well, they, I think they they It was one and
48:16
Speaker 1: a half when we spoke, they had been two, and
48:19
Speaker 1: I thought it might go back to two because I
48:22
Speaker 1: thought people would overreact to the Bills.
48:25
Speaker 2: And to me, that would have been great because then
48:27
Speaker 2: we are getting a little more yes across the key
48:29
Speaker 2: number of two, and that's where I would have been happy.
48:31
Speaker 2: So to me, this is all about the number and
48:33
Speaker 2: who I have trust in. And these are the best
48:36
Speaker 2: games because it is a game where you know, not
48:39
Speaker 2: that my model can't figure this one out, but it's
48:42
Speaker 2: like you got to throw it out. This is the
48:45
Speaker 2: most human part of sports betting at this point, because
48:48
Speaker 2: it is who do you trust? Which quarterback do you
48:51
Speaker 2: trust at the end of this game? And you want
48:53
Speaker 2: to dive into all the numbers, all the numbers. I'm
48:55
Speaker 2: telling you people, I dove into all of it. It
48:57
Speaker 2: favors a team that's six all pros on in Baltimore, Like,
49:00
Speaker 2: there's a reason this team is an absolute juggernaut where
49:03
Speaker 2: the Bills, you know, they were left for dead. That's
49:06
Speaker 2: why again I want to give MVP to Josh Allen.
49:08
Speaker 2: They don't have that across They don't have a bunch
49:10
Speaker 2: of studs across the board. Right, They're a team that
49:13
Speaker 2: has just been thrown together and it works like that.
49:16
Speaker 2: I can't wait to go in the off season really
49:17
Speaker 2: break down. It was the offensive line dominant for the
49:20
Speaker 2: Bills or was that once again all Josh Allen? Because
49:23
Speaker 2: how great they are now running down team's throats at
49:26
Speaker 2: the end of the games. How Josh Allen never takes sacks.
49:30
Speaker 2: It's just been incredible, how this nameless front line, how
49:33
Speaker 2: this Bill's offense has done it. We're on the flip side,
49:36
Speaker 2: Ravens are the same thing. They're a nameless offensive line.
49:38
Speaker 2: They've been dominant all season. So yeah, this is, in
49:42
Speaker 2: my opinion, probably the best game we're going to get
49:44
Speaker 2: in the playoffs until the super Bowl. Like, it doesn't
49:46
Speaker 2: get much better than this. These are two teams that
49:48
Speaker 2: Jenny even said the top of the show, like no
49:50
Speaker 2: one's talking about the Chiefs. Everyone's talking about Bills or
49:53
Speaker 2: Ravens super Bowl at this point. So I love it.
49:57
Speaker 2: This is this is my favorite part about betting playofootball.
49:59
Speaker 1: You are, I'm very fired up about this game. It's
50:02
Speaker 1: the best and I am. It feels suckerish to be
50:08
Speaker 1: betting the Ravens right now.
50:10
Speaker 2: Is the sucker has been winning this year, brother, I know,
50:13
Speaker 2: don't let that scary off. I mean, being a sucker
50:16
Speaker 2: has been paying big this year.
50:18
Speaker 1: Part of me feels like I'm waiting to bet this
50:20
Speaker 1: game live because whoever scores the first touchdown the other
50:25
Speaker 1: team is likely to be an underdog of more than one.
50:30
Speaker 2: But these teams are who they are. Chat where the Ravens,
50:33
Speaker 2: I mean Stucky's bet. It feels like every week is
50:35
Speaker 2: him giving us Ravens first half right, and it's been
50:38
Speaker 2: me banging you over the head about it doesn't matter
50:42
Speaker 2: what the score is. You take Josh Allen the second half.
50:45
Speaker 2: He's just been it's been incredible. I think that's another
50:48
Speaker 2: Evan stat, right is he fifteen to two Evans second
50:50
Speaker 2: half against the spread. It's something insane like that this season.
50:54
Speaker 2: So that to me is the biggest thing here where
50:57
Speaker 2: It's like that's another reason I have confidence in Josh Allen.
50:59
Speaker 2: If this game is Ravens thirteen, Bills ten and half, Chad,
51:05
Speaker 2: I honestly think you're dead. You're dead if you have
51:07
Speaker 2: the Ravens. If this is Ravens by two scores, if
51:11
Speaker 2: they're up by ten and a half, I think that's your
51:13
Speaker 2: best chance as somehow pulling off this win if you're
51:16
Speaker 2: the Raves team. Because to me, if this is three
51:18
Speaker 2: points or less, Josh Allen's gonna get them the second half.
51:21
Speaker 2: He's just been so dominant and the adjustments defensively by
51:24
Speaker 2: this Bills team has been great in the second half.
51:26
Speaker 2: So that's why I do love this matchup for this
51:28
Speaker 2: Bills team.
51:29
Speaker 1: Ravens are minus half a point first half.
51:34
Speaker 2: Can't beat that value. That's good value.
51:38
Speaker 1: That feels like a good one to play, right.
51:40
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's nice because I thought they would give them
51:43
Speaker 2: the just the bump that Lamar gets in these first halfs, Like,
51:46
Speaker 2: even if he's not a big favorite in the game,
51:48
Speaker 2: that a lot of times they've just been hanging two
51:50
Speaker 2: and a half three first half just because he's been
51:52
Speaker 2: that dominant. So yeah, that's actually pretty interesting. Tell by
51:55
Speaker 2: the books, they're given that number right, Yeah, fishy.
52:00
Speaker 1: It's fishy. Yeah, this one's tough. I don't have a
52:05
Speaker 1: conclusion here. I'm glad you didn't make it. Simon says,
52:08
Speaker 1: it's definitely.
52:08
Speaker 2: Time on it too, because I'm with you. This is
52:11
Speaker 2: a tough game.
52:12
Speaker 1: Tough game, really tough game. What do you think of
52:15
Speaker 1: the total? The total right now is fifty one and
52:17
Speaker 1: a half feels high to me.
52:19
Speaker 2: I know under, so I don't want to give it away.
52:21
Speaker 2: But once again, I'm on three unders and one over.
52:24
Speaker 2: So yeah, last week I couldn't find it over. I
52:27
Speaker 2: liked even even though Chad almost scared me off my
52:31
Speaker 2: rams back because the lucky did get over. But yeah,
52:33
Speaker 2: once once we got so many unders, I was like,
52:36
Speaker 2: now this everyone's just so tight right now in the
52:39
Speaker 2: playoffs and teams are just not forcing the ball, and
52:41
Speaker 2: I feel like the refs have been calling a lot
52:42
Speaker 2: of penalties. I'm know about you, but it feels like
52:45
Speaker 2: the refs too have been more involved in a lot
52:48
Speaker 2: of like not just holds, but a lot of stuff
52:51
Speaker 2: making the offense is kind of stagnate. That's that feels
52:53
Speaker 2: like we've had that with a bunch of games so far.
52:55
Speaker 2: So yeah, this I couldn't. I know, it sounds stupid
52:58
Speaker 2: because I'm betting over a fifty five and a half,
53:00
Speaker 2: but this one fifty one and a half. I have.
53:02
Speaker 2: This had forty eight and a half. So I think
53:04
Speaker 2: there's a ton of value on the under here, especially
53:06
Speaker 2: with these two teams that you know it's gonna be
53:08
Speaker 2: cold as hell up in Buffalo Chaw. This's gonna be
53:10
Speaker 2: a tight game with two run heavy teams. So I
53:13
Speaker 2: do like the clock to be running. This to be
53:15
Speaker 2: a low score.
53:16
Speaker 1: There was a I think it was the Bucks Commander's
53:18
Speaker 1: game where even though it was close a lot of
53:21
Speaker 1: the game and we had the Bucks, I didn't have
53:23
Speaker 1: that usual nervous pit in my stomach. And I think
53:28
Speaker 1: it's because the game just kept moving, like there weren't
53:31
Speaker 1: a lot of penalties. They just kept playing. It was
53:33
Speaker 1: really it was a really good game and really good football.
53:37
Speaker 1: Really just enjoyed it. One of the rare moments when
53:40
Speaker 1: I did watching the NFL this year, and I think
53:44
Speaker 1: the fact there weren't a lot of penalties and it
53:45
Speaker 1: just Kevi Roland was a big part of it.
53:48
Speaker 2: There's a good one, all right.
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