Latest / The President's Daily Brief / November 3rd, 2026: Trump's Economic Offer to Putin & China's Expanding Warship Fleet

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November 3rd, 2026: Trump's Economic Offer to Putin & China's Expanding Warship Fleet · The President's Daily Brief

0:13
It's Tuesday,
0:14
the 3rd of November.
0:16
Well,
0:16
would you look at that?
0:17
It's election day in the US.
0:19
You may have heard about the US midterm elections.
0:22
Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
0:24
I'm Mike Baker,
0:25
your eyes and ears on the world stage.
0:27
All right,
0:28
let's get briefed.
0:30
First up,
0:30
the Trump administration is
0:32
exploring a controversial proposal
0:35
to restore Russian natural gas sales to Europe.
0:38
Look,
0:38
it's another concession to Putin
0:40
in hopes of securing a ceasefire in Ukraine.
0:43
But the plan faces serious opposition as Russian
0:47
forces continue their deadly attacks on Ukrainian civilians.
0:51
Later in the show,
0:52
America's naval dominance is facing its biggest challenge
0:56
as China builds a massive fleet of warships and aircraft carriers
1:00
designed to challenge US military power in the Pacific.
1:04
Plus the latest from the ground in Yemen where
1:07
the Iran-backed Houthis have advanced to within 50 miles
1:11
of the city of Aden,
1:13
that's the temporary capital of
1:15
the country's internationally recognized government,
1:17
marking their closest approach to the city in more than a decade.
1:21
And in today's back of the brief,
1:24
hackers are targeting supermarket refrigerators across Europe.
1:29
Um,
1:29
which is not a sentence that I've ever said before.
1:33
I'll have the details.
1:34
But first,
1:35
today's PDB spotlight.
1:37
We begin today with a controversial new proposal from the Trump administration
1:42
that could see Russian natural gas flowing back into Europe,
1:46
potentially providing Vladimir Putin
1:48
with a lucrative economic opportunity while his
1:51
military continues its war against Ukraine.
1:54
According to a new investigation by the Wall Street Journal.
1:57
American officials are pushing to restart Russian
2:00
gas shipments through pipelines crossing Ukrainian territory,
2:03
hoping that the financial incentive
2:06
will persuade Moscow
2:08
to agree to a ceasefire targeting energy infrastructure ahead of winter.
2:12
The proposal was reportedly raised by Trump's envoys.
2:15
Are they the only two US envoys,
2:17
Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner,
2:19
during meetings with Russian and Ukrainian officials in September.
2:23
Under the arrangement,
2:24
Russian gas would flow through Ukraine to European customers,
2:28
potentially with an American company acting as an intermediary.
2:32
Ukraine
2:33
would collect transit fees
2:35
while Russia would regain access to a market
2:38
that once generated enormous revenue for Moscow.
2:41
The administration has proposed reportedly placing Russia's proceeds
2:46
into an escrow account in a third country,
2:49
theoretically,
2:51
I emphasize theoretically,
2:52
preventing the Kremlin from using that money to finance its military operations.
2:58
The thinking behind the proposal is that restoring
3:00
Russian gas shipments could give all sides an incentive
3:04
to reduce the fighting,
3:05
although it's unclear what the incentive is
3:07
for Russia if their revenues from selling gas
3:10
are put into an escrow account that limits how they use the funds,
3:13
which leads one to assume that the incentive is
3:16
that they will be able to access those funds.
3:20
And Ukraine would collect transit fees,
3:22
which in reality would be insignificant compared to the sales
3:26
proceeds that Russia would theoretically bank for the gas sales.
3:31
Ukraine is facing another difficult winter,
3:33
of course,
3:33
with
3:34
ongoing Russian strikes severely damaging its energy infrastructure.
3:38
European gas supplies are also under pressure,
3:41
particularly as the ongoing conflict with Iran
3:43
disrupts shipments from the Persian Gulf.
3:46
Washington hopes that renewed gas sales could ease Europe's energy concerns,
3:51
provide Ukraine with transit revenue,
3:52
and give Moscow a financial incentive to stop attacking Ukrainian power plants.
3:58
But there are some serious questions about
4:00
whether this approach would actually work.
4:02
Are there really?
4:03
Oh,
4:03
look,
4:03
there's some serious questions.
4:05
First,
4:05
consider what Europe has spent the past several years trying to accomplish.
4:09
Before Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022,
4:13
Moscow supplied approximately 45% of Europe's natural gas.
4:18
Well,
4:18
that dependence gave Putin enormous
4:20
economic leverage over European governments.
4:23
Since the invasion,
4:24
European countries have spent billions diversifying their energy supplies,
4:28
building new infrastructure,
4:30
and reducing their reliance on Russia.
4:32
Today,
4:33
Russian gas accounts for approximately 11% of European consumption,
4:38
and the EU has adopted legislation
4:41
requiring Russian natural gas imports to be phased
4:44
out completely by the end of 2027.
4:47
Now,
4:48
the Trump administration is floating a proposal
4:50
that could reverse
4:52
that progress.
4:53
And there's an interesting historical contradiction here.
4:56
During his first administration,
4:58
President Trump repeatedly criticized Germany for
5:01
pursuing the Nord Stream 2 pipeline,
5:03
warning
5:04
that reliance on Russian gas
5:06
would leave Berlin vulnerable to Moscow.
5:09
He even imposed sanctions on the project back in 2019.
5:12
Now Washington is exploring ways to restore the same energy relationship
5:17
that President Trump once argued
5:19
was dangerous.
5:20
European officials are understandably skeptical.
5:23
They argue that allowing Russian gas back into their
5:26
markets would restore some of Moscow's economic influence,
5:29
potentially undermine sanctions,
5:31
and create new vulnerabilities that Europe has spent years trying to eliminate.
5:36
And while an escrow arrangement might,
5:38
and I emphasize the word might,
5:40
restrict Moscow's access to the money,
5:43
exactly how that would be enforced remains,
5:45
of course,
5:46
an open question.
5:47
Again,
5:48
if their access is restricted.
5:50
It's likely Putin will not view this offer as an incentive,
5:53
and if they are given access,
5:55
it's likely that Putin
5:57
will use some,
5:57
if not all,
5:58
of the proceeds to fund his war machine.
6:01
There's also the issue of what specific concessions Russia
6:04
might make in some distant limited peace deal.
6:07
The Journal reports that Ukraine recently suspended attacks on Russian
6:11
oil refineries for nearly two weeks under pressure from Washington,
6:16
but during that pause,
6:17
Russian forces continued attacking Ukraine's energy infrastructure.
6:21
Kiev eventually resumed its strikes against Russian refineries on Friday.
6:26
Ukraine effectively
6:28
demonstrated a willingness to reduce pressure on Russia's energy sector,
6:31
but Moscow
6:33
did not respond with comparable restraint.
6:35
And now Washington is discussing an arrangement
6:38
that could offer Russia substantial financial benefits.
6:41
In exchange for a promise to stop some of those attacks,
6:44
and the reality is the Kremlin is not embracing the proposal.
6:49
On Monday,
6:49
spokesman Dmitry Peskov said
6:51
that current conditions make restarting Russian gas shipments through Ukraine
6:55
practically impossible,
6:57
although he left open the possibility of future discussions.
7:01
Meanwhile,
7:02
three-way negotiations involving the US,
7:04
Russia,
7:05
and Ukraine
7:06
are reportedly being planned for the middle of November in Abu Dhabi.
7:10
And as those diplomatic efforts continue,
7:13
well,
7:14
we received another reminder Monday of the brutality of Putin's war.
7:18
Russian forces launched a devastating bomb attack
7:20
on a village in southeastern Ukraine.
7:23
According to Ukrainian President Zelensky,
7:25
the initial strike hit a school being
7:27
used to distribute humanitarian assistance to civilians.
7:30
He says Russian aircraft then dropped 9 additional bombs
7:34
on a nearby shelter where residents had gathered.
7:37
Ukraine's emergency services reported 24 people killed,
7:40
with approximately 20 others still missing
7:42
as the rescuers searched through the rubble.
7:45
Additional Russian drone attacks reportedly complicated the rescue operation.
7:50
Zelensky condemned the bombing,
7:52
saying it demonstrated that Moscow had no genuine interest in de-escalation.
7:57
And that brings us back to the administration's proposal.
8:00
There's nothing inherently wrong with using economic
8:03
incentives to pursue a diplomatic settlement.
8:06
If an agreement could protect Ukrainian civilians,
8:09
keep the lights on through winter,
8:11
and move the two sides closer to ending the war,
8:14
well,
8:14
that would be a significant accomplishment.
8:16
But incentives only work
8:18
when the other side is prepared to make meaningful concessions.
8:21
And after nearly 5 years of Russia's full scale invasion,
8:25
Putin has not given Washington any reason to believe that he's prepared to do that.
8:30
The Trump administration continues to act as if the answer
8:33
to this conflict is to make concessions to Putin,
8:36
thinking that he'll show goodwill
8:38
and sit down at the negotiating table for meaningful discussions.
8:41
One could argue that instead,
8:44
Putin views each concession from the White House as a sign of weakness,
8:48
which only
8:48
incentivizes him.
8:50
To continue on his current path.
8:53
All right.
8:53
Coming up next,
8:55
China's growing navy challenges American dominance in the Pacific,
8:59
and Iran-backed Houthi forces advance toward the seat
9:02
of Yemen's internationally recognized and Saudi-backed government.
9:06
I'll be right back.
9:09
Hey,
9:10
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Welcome back to the PDB.
10:25
For many decades,
10:26
the US Navy has been the world's dominant
10:29
maritime force capable of projecting American military power
10:33
almost anywhere on the planet,
10:35
but China is mounting an increasingly serious challenge to that dominance,
10:39
and by one important measure,
10:41
Beijing has already surpassed Washington.
10:44
According to a major investigation by the Wall Street Journal,
10:47
China's navy now operates more than 400 warships
10:50
and submarines compared with roughly 290 American vessels.
10:55
That gives Beijing the world's largest navy by ship count,
10:59
with a fleet approximately 35% larger than America's.
11:03
And the speed of China's expansion is remarkable.
11:06
Since 2020,
11:07
Beijing has added 71 major warships and submarines to its fleet,
11:12
including 19 last year alone.
11:14
But perhaps the most interesting part of the
11:16
journal's investigation is how China got here.
11:19
Back in 1998,
11:21
a little known entertainment company based in Macau
11:24
purchased an unfinished Soviet aircraft carrier from Ukraine.
11:27
The vessel called the Vag had been sitting unfinished in
11:31
a Ukrainian shipyard since the collapse of the Soviet Union.
11:34
The Chinese buyers paid roughly $20 million for it,
11:38
claiming
11:39
that they intended to transform the enormous warship into a floating casino.
11:43
But the vessel never became a casino.
11:45
There's a shock.
11:46
Instead,
11:47
China hauled it home,
11:48
spent years rebuilding it,
11:49
and eventually commissioned it
11:51
as the Liaoning.
11:53
That's the country's first operational aircraft carrier.
11:56
That was in 2012.
11:58
Today,
11:59
China operates 3 aircraft carriers,
12:01
with 1/4 reportedly under development,
12:03
and the Pentagon estimates Beijing could eventually have 9 carriers
12:07
by the year 2035.
12:09
It's an extraordinary transformation for a navy that just a few decades ago
12:14
was largely confined to defending China's coastline.
12:18
Under President Xi Jinping,
12:19
that mission has changed dramatically.
12:22
Beijing is building a navy capable of operating across the Pacific,
12:26
challenging American warships,
12:28
protecting Chinese interests overseas,
12:30
and potentially preventing US forces from intervening in a conflict over Taiwan.
12:35
But the real story may not be the warships,
12:38
it's the industrial machine that's building them.
12:41
The Wall Street Journal examined China's enormous shipbuilding industry,
12:45
which now produces more than half of the world's commercial vessels.
12:48
At one massive facility near Shanghai,
12:50
satellite imagery revealed multiple destroyers,
12:53
cruisers,
12:54
frigates,
12:54
and amphibious assault ships under construction
12:57
or undergoing maintenance,
12:58
and Beijing keeps expanding those facilities.
13:02
Now that's a significant advantage in any potential confrontation with the US
13:06
because building a powerful navy isn't simply about how
13:09
many ships you have when a war begins.
13:11
It's also about how quickly you can replace damaged or destroyed vessels,
13:15
repair existing ships,
13:17
and keep additional warships coming off the production line.
13:20
And right now,
13:21
China's shipbuilding industry operates on a scale unmatched
13:25
by the US or any other nation.
13:28
The US still possesses enormous naval advantages,
13:31
of course,
13:32
including more experienced carrier operations,
13:34
advanced nuclear submarines,
13:36
and the ability to sustain military deployments around the world.
13:40
American warships are also generally larger,
13:43
meaning the US Navy retains an advantage in total fleet tonnage.
13:46
So
13:47
counting ships alone doesn't tell us which navy would win a war.
13:51
But there's another factor to consider,
13:53
and that's geography.
13:55
China doesn't necessarily need to defeat the
13:57
American navy everywhere in the world.
13:59
In a confrontation over Taiwan,
14:01
for example,
14:02
Beijing would be fighting relatively close to home,
14:05
supported by land-based aircraft,
14:07
missiles,
14:07
and an enormous network
14:09
of military installations along its coastline.
14:12
American forces meanwhile would have to operate
14:14
thousands of miles from the continental US,
14:17
relying on bases and logistics networks spread throughout the Pacific.
14:21
And that's precisely the challenge
14:23
that China is preparing to exploit.
14:25
The journal documents how Beijing is steadily
14:28
expanding operations beyond its traditional coastal waters,
14:31
sending carrier groups deeper into the Pacific
14:33
and deploying warships around places like Taiwan and Australia.
14:38
The objective
14:39
is to make it increasingly difficult and potentially much more dangerous
14:43
for the US to intervene militarily in China's backyard.
14:47
Meanwhile,
14:48
America's own shipbuilding industry has struggled with delays,
14:51
rising costs,
14:52
and shortages of skilled workers.
14:55
The Journal reports that US naval shipbuilding
14:57
spending has doubled over the past 20 years
15:00
without producing a substantially larger fleet.
15:03
The Trump administration has acknowledged those problems
15:06
and is pursuing efforts to rebuild America's shipbuilding capacity,
15:10
but restoring an industrial base capable of competing with China's,
15:15
well,
15:15
that could take years.
15:17
All right,
15:18
I want to turn now to what's happening on the ground in Yemen
15:21
where Houthi rebels are taking territory and
15:23
forcing government troops back toward Aden.
15:26
That's the internationally recognized government's temporary capital.
15:30
They're now just 50 miles away.
15:32
That's 50,
15:33
50 miles away,
15:34
that's their closest approach to the city
15:36
since 2015.
15:38
To understand the danger here,
15:40
let's look at what's happened in just the past three days.
15:43
Four military sources told Reuters that the
15:46
Houthis launched an assault on government positions
15:49
in Al Mukhatira.
15:50
That's a mountainous district in southwestern Yemen.
15:53
By Monday,
15:54
those sources said the entire district had fallen.
15:57
Government troops were forced to retreat toward
16:00
neighboring Ter al-Baha.
16:02
That's one of the main approaches to Aden.
16:04
Fighting was still underway yesterday
16:06
at a military camp near its entrance,
16:08
and that's 50 miles from Aden.
16:10
We've been following this broader Iran-backed
16:13
Houthi offensive since it began in September
16:16
with the rebels pushing south along Yemen's Red Sea coast.
16:19
Now
16:20
that campaign is moving farther inland toward Aden.
16:23
A Houthi official also posted a video he
16:26
said showed the group's fighters entering Al Makhatira.
16:30
Uh,
16:30
Reuters could not immediately verify the footage.
16:33
The terrain the government forces have
16:34
lost makes that retreat especially concerning.
16:37
Al Makhatira
16:38
overlooks the main road connecting Aden with Taiz,
16:42
Yemen's third largest city.
16:44
That road had been Tai's last remaining link to government-held territory
16:49
until the Houthis cut it in early October,
16:51
encircling the city.
16:53
More than 100,000 people have already been displaced by the siege,
16:57
and residents are said to be running short of food,
16:59
fuel,
17:00
and medicine.
17:01
Another danger looms for the government troops trying to stop them.
17:05
Government forces had only recently driven Houthi
17:08
fighters out of parts of the mountain range
17:10
overlooking the Bab al Madeb Strait.
17:12
Military sources say this latest advance could allow the rebels
17:15
to move around those defensive positions,
17:18
threatening gains the government made just weeks ago.
17:21
The city itself has already come under attack.
17:23
The Houthis struck its airport last Wednesday
17:26
after warning people to evacuate,
17:28
and the presidential palace was hit in October.
17:32
For the internationally recognized government,
17:34
losing Aden would mean losing the place that it's
17:37
governed from since being driven out of Sana'a.
17:40
Now some of you may recall that the Houthis briefly entered Aden back in 2015
17:45
before government aligned forces backed by Saudi Arabia drove them out.
17:50
If they returned and took the city,
17:52
government leaders could be forced to flee again,
17:54
potentially into Saudi Arabia.
17:57
Now that would not automatically erase every government foothold in Yemen,
18:00
of course,
18:01
but losing its temporary capital and main stronghold
18:04
would make governing from inside the country far harder
18:07
while handing the Iran-backed Houthis
18:09
a major military and political victory.
18:13
The stakes also extend beyond Aden.
18:15
The broader Houthi offensive has brought territorial
18:18
gains near the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
18:20
And that of course is the narrow passage connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden,
18:25
and it's a key route of course for international shipping
18:28
and Saudi oil exports to Asia.
18:31
Those gains give the Iran-backed rebels more
18:33
opportunities to track and threaten passing ships,
18:36
putting commercial traffic and energy shipments at greater risk.
18:40
For Saudi Arabia,
18:41
the pressure is even more direct.
18:42
The kingdom is backing Yemen's internationally recognized government
18:46
while facing renewed Houthi attacks on its own territory.
18:50
The Saudi-led coalition has responded
18:52
by stepping up strikes on Houthi positions inside Yemen.
18:56
So
18:57
Aden
18:57
has not fallen,
18:58
and this latest advance does not make that outcome inevitable,
19:02
but an entire district has reportedly changed hands in 3 days.
19:06
The pressure now is on government forces and their Saudi backers
19:10
to stop that momentum
19:12
before the fighting reaches
19:13
the Yemeni government's capital.
19:16
All right,
19:16
coming up in today's back of the brief,
19:18
a new wave of cyber attacks
19:20
is exposing an unexpected vulnerability across Europe as hackers
19:25
take control of supermarket refrigeration systems,
19:28
threatening food supplies.
19:30
More on that
19:31
when we come back.
19:34
Hey,
19:34
Mike Baker here.
19:35
Well,
19:35
summer is over and now we're into fall.
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Now,
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right?
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Hey,
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In today's back of the brief,
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imagine arriving at your local supermarket
22:14
only to discover that the freezers
22:17
are set to 122
22:19
°F
22:20
and the food inside is spoiled.
22:23
All right,
22:23
let's start with what happened at a supermarket in Stockholm,
22:26
Sweden.
22:27
The attack struck around 2 o'clock Monday morning,
22:30
but employees obviously didn't discover anything was wrong
22:33
until hours later when the store opened.
22:35
The store's sales manager described the damage to Reuters in three words,
22:39
quote,
22:39
Everything is destroyed
22:41
over in Belgium.
22:42
An employee woke a butcher shop owner south of
22:44
Antwerp around 3:30 that morning to report a problem.
22:48
He rushed to the shop and
22:49
found his refrigerators turned up as high as 65
22:52
°F.
22:53
He estimated that nearly $17,000 worth of meat
22:56
had been ruined,
22:58
as he explained,
22:58
quote,
22:59
They're hacking the system that is
23:01
doing the registration of the temperature,
23:03
and they can program it at a distance,
23:05
end quote.
23:06
Now,
23:06
to be clear,
23:07
investigators haven't established who carried out
23:09
the attacks or what they intended,
23:11
but what was already becoming clear
23:13
was the scale of the attack.
23:15
Dozens of stores across several countries were affected.
23:18
Supermarket chains in Sweden,
23:20
Belgium,
23:21
and Luxembourg reported interference with their refrigeration systems.
23:25
Even IKEA,
23:26
known for its furniture and of course those famous Swedish meatballs,
23:31
confirmed that one Belgian location had been hit.
23:33
It couldn't rule out disruptions at other locations.
23:36
In Ireland,
23:37
wholesaler Musgrave reported problems at 13 supermarkets forcing employees
23:42
to pull some chilled and frozen products from sale.
23:45
The opening for hackers is in the connected controllers
23:48
that let stores monitor temperatures and adjust settings remotely.
23:52
If a controller is exposed or vulnerable,
23:54
an intruder may be able to access those same settings.
23:58
Now similar attacks hit hundreds of supermarkets in France just last month
24:02
where police said hackers took control of refrigeration systems,
24:06
causing food losses and fires.
24:08
At least some of the units affected Monday
24:11
used temperature control technology from the Danish company Danfos,
24:15
whose technology was also targeted in France.
24:19
Danfos says it's been working with customers to implement fixes.
24:23
The shared technology gives investigators a connection to examine.
24:27
It does not establish that the same people carried out all of the attacks.
24:31
And then there's the motive.
24:33
A researcher at cybersecurity firm Sentinel One
24:36
said attacks on these systems are typically associated with extortion,
24:40
political objectives,
24:41
or operations involving foreign governments.
24:44
Financial demands apparently have not followed the attacks.
24:48
The European Commissioner for Agriculture put the concern this way,
24:52
quote,
24:52
They are a deliberate attempt to disrupt our food
24:55
supply chain and undermine consumers' confidence in it,
24:59
a warning that we must take seriously,
25:01
end quote.
25:02
Now finding out who's responsible is another challenge,
25:05
of course.
25:06
Nobody has publicly claimed responsibility for either the
25:09
latest incidents or the earlier attacks in France.
25:12
The Sentinel One researcher explained why investigators
25:16
may have so little to work with.
25:17
Quote,
25:18
An attacker who logs into an exposed control panel leaves almost nothing behind.
25:23
A teenager at an intelligence service
25:25
would look much the same
25:27
from the defender's side,
25:28
end quote.
25:30
This comes as European governments are already on alert for the sabotage and hybrid
25:34
threats that we've been following here on
25:35
the PDB throughout Russia's war against Ukraine.
25:39
But there is no publicly established evidence linking Russia
25:42
to these supermarket attacks,
25:44
at least not yet.
25:46
And that my friends,
25:47
is the president's Daily Brief for Tuesday,
25:50
the 3rd of November.
25:51
Now,
25:51
if you have any questions or comments,
25:53
please reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
25:57
And of course if you're in the US,
25:58
do not forget today is election day.
26:01
Get out and vote.
26:03
If you don't like the outcome but you didn't vote,
26:05
well,
26:06
it's tough to complain.
26:07
And if you've been wondering what an ad-free PDB experience would be like,
26:11
yeah,
26:11
wonder no more.
26:13
Just become a premium member of the President's Daily Brief
26:16
by visiting PDBpremium.com.
26:18
I'm Mike Baker,
26:19
and I'll be back later today
26:20
with the PDB
26:22
afternoon bulletin.
26:23
Until then,
26:24
stay informed,
26:25
stay safe,
26:26
stay cool.