Latest / The Fourcast / Gaza, Ukraine, China: will 2026 mark the end of the West?

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Gaza, Ukraine, China: will 2026 mark the end of the West? · The Fourcast

0:00
Is there such a thing as the worst anymore?
0:02
I'm not quite sure. 2026 is going to be a crunch year for
0:06
Europe. If the Americans pull all aid
0:09
and support to Ukraine, will Europe really step?
0:13
Up We spent probably more time in 2025 talking about the Middle
0:18
East and Gaza than any other topic.
0:21
How do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
0:24
Any significant breakthrough? Very, very unlikely to.
0:28
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power?
0:30
What? Do you think will happen with
0:31
Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
0:34
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
0:36
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
0:40
year. Hello and welcome to the last
0:45
forecast of 2025, where we plan to take our name a bit more
0:48
literally than usual and have a think about the world over the
0:51
next year. Now, as we reach for the Brandy
0:54
and work out how big a measure to pour, it might be tempting to
0:57
be optimistic to say there's progress on Gaza, stage two of
1:00
the process to sort out a determination in Europe and
1:03
America to end the war in Ukraine, and a summer of
1:06
international sports diplomacy with the World Cup to look
1:09
forward to. But with all or most roads still
1:12
leading to Trump, there's the midterms, America, his demands
1:15
for regime change in Venezuela, the spread of the war in Sudan.
1:19
And that's before you've even thought about whether there's an
1:21
AI bubble about to burst, China planning the takeover of Taiwan
1:25
and the rising tide of populism in any number of countries
1:28
around the globe. Joining me, two of Channel 4's
1:31
most experienced international journalists who have seen many a
1:34
power shift, war and peace in their time, Lindsay Hilson and
1:38
Jonathan Rugman. Hello, everyone.
1:40
So, Lindsay, indulge me as we look ahead that, you know, is
1:44
there a scenario in which we think, well, 2025 felt very
1:48
chaotic, very unstable, Maybe things will calm down a little
1:53
bit over the next 12 months and it might be the era of peace and
1:57
harmony. Oh, Krishnan Cassandra was
2:00
right. You know, that's the problem.
2:02
And I might reach for the whiskey rather than the Brandy.
2:05
I am not pretty predicting joy, peace and harmony, I'm afraid.
2:10
In 2026, I find it very difficult to believe that the
2:14
war in Ukraine will come to an end.
2:18
I think that we're likely to see more war.
2:21
And I think that if there is an enforced peace, it will not be
2:24
one that benefits the Ukrainian people.
2:27
I was at a briefing the other day with the head of MI 6.
2:31
She said that we in Europe are in a state which is somewhere
2:34
between war and peace. In other words, we are no longer
2:38
at peace, and that is because of the threat from Russia.
2:42
And then I haven't even started to talk about whether there's an
2:45
AI bubble. So we might see and a, a crash
2:49
in America might see a, a, a Wall Street crash.
2:53
And Sudan, you mentioned Sudan, a country that's very close to
2:57
my heart, where it's a terrible humanitarian crisis and there is
3:01
a great danger of it spreading to Ethiopia and also South
3:04
Sudan. Jonathan, I mean as as well as
3:07
the foreign beat, you've obviously been based in America,
3:09
you've done business. I mean, the, the midterms in
3:13
America, it might change the equation a little bit, mightn't
3:16
they? In terms of where Trump wants
3:19
his focus to be and how important the domestic economy
3:22
becomes to him and the need for things to be telling a a better
3:26
story up to a point, I think foreign.
3:29
Policy can carry on pretty much regardless.
3:33
Of the US domestic scene as long as it's.
3:35
Not costing the Americans lots of money.
3:40
You talked about the midterm. Elections.
3:42
That will very much depend. On the cost of living in the
3:46
United States and. The latest inflation.
3:50
Figures that have come out for America are 2.7%.
3:53
Which is lower than expected. So it is going in, Donald.
3:57
Trump's the right direction for Donald Trump.
4:01
His friendship with the. Crown Prince of Saudi.
4:03
Arabia means that he has considerable leverage when it.
4:07
Comes to. Persuading the Saudis to
4:10
increase the. Output of oil which helps.
4:13
Reduce the the price. So I think I I wouldn't take it
4:18
as a. Given that Donald Trump.
4:19
Is going to lose. The midterm elections.
4:22
Or that his party is. It won't actually, I think.
4:26
Depend on Donald Trump that all Americans now know, and they've
4:30
decided. What they think about him.
4:32
Whether they like. Him or they don't I.
4:33
Think it will depend on on the cost of living and.
4:37
It's been a surprise in 2025 that inflation.
4:42
And the stock market? Which has.
4:45
Been at a record high, you know have not been as.
4:47
Affected as they might have been.
4:49
By this global tariff war. Lindsay I mean, to, to what
4:52
extent do all roads lead to Trump?
4:54
I mean, it's very tempting sitting in Britain and looking
4:57
at British world coverage to think, well, he he determines
5:00
everything. Is that the way the world is at
5:04
the moment or, or are we seeing, you know, a greater, to a
5:09
greater degree, you know, the the zoning of the world spheres
5:12
of influence in which China, Russia, India take a much bigger
5:19
say in terms of the determination of how things go?
5:23
Well, the spheres of influence is because that is what Donald
5:27
Trump has decided. He has said that he wants to
5:31
control the Western Hemisphere and that means Latin America,
5:35
which is an area which is very rich in minerals, which of
5:38
course he's very interested in oil, lithium and so on.
5:43
And where he's very concerned that people should that leaders
5:47
should have the same right wing view of the world that he has.
5:50
And I was in Greenland at the beginning of this year,
5:53
somewhere else, as you may remember, he has his eye on in
5:56
the Western Hemisphere. And though he sort of backed off
6:00
on China in that, you know, there's that thing, Taco Trump
6:03
always chickens out when it came to the tariffs.
6:06
He came right down from his 145% tariffs on Chinese goods because
6:11
the Chinese said, OK, no rare earths.
6:13
And he needs rare earths. He needs those critical minerals
6:17
for any kind of development of, of tech in America.
6:21
So he, you know, that that's sort of less of a sphere of
6:24
influence and more of some kind of arrangement between them.
6:27
And then that leaves the other sphere.
6:29
And that's Russia, and that's us, that's Europe.
6:33
And what we have seen play out through this year is how Donald
6:37
Trump favors Putin all the way through when it comes to war and
6:41
peace in Ukraine. And I think 2026 is going to be
6:45
a crunch year for Europe because if the Americans pull all aid
6:51
and support to Ukraine, which they have threatened to do,
6:53
which is perfectly possible, which includes intelligence,
6:56
will Europe really step up? What about the frozen Russian
7:01
assets? Will Europe really act on that
7:05
or not? And so I think what we are going
7:08
to see is Europe really being put to the test.
7:11
And that is entirely because of Trump's policies, because Trump
7:16
is very hostile to Europe and JD Vance, his vice president, is
7:20
even more hostile. They think of, they talk about
7:24
civilizational erasure. What they mean by that, that is
7:27
that they don't like immigration in Europe, they don't like
7:30
centre left, centre right, liberal politics.
7:33
They favour the far right and they don't like what they see in
7:37
our continent. It's quite difficult to know
7:39
though, isn't it Lindsay? You know, to what extent Europe
7:42
feels it really can step up and to what extent America wants to
7:47
control Europe, as you say. I mean the national security
7:50
strategy is now explicit in saying it wants to undermine the
7:56
social democracies of Europe and promote nationalist parties and
8:01
populist parties to deliver a Europe in, in Trump's mould, if
8:06
you like. I mean, what I'm not really
8:07
clear about over the last year is, is while Europe has talked
8:10
about stepping up and determining its own future, it
8:14
feels like it's constantly checking whether what it's
8:17
saying and what it's doing is OK with Washington because it feels
8:21
it's it's still needs Washington there financially and
8:24
militarily. No, you're absolutely right.
8:27
Because I, I feel European leaders have grown up in an era
8:32
of dependence on the Americans as a security shield.
8:36
And as you know, what we call the West, is there such a thing
8:40
as the West anymore? I'm not quite sure.
8:43
And also inevitably different European leaders have a
8:46
different approach. And I think that we see
8:48
Chancellor Mertz in Germany being much clearer about the
8:52
need for to say, OK, the Americans aren't going to help
8:56
us. So then they haven't started
8:58
conscription in Germany, but they have started to say that
9:01
young men must sign up in case we have to do conscription.
9:05
And they are putting a lot more money into defence,
9:08
understanding that they are going to need an independent,
9:11
independent defence now. But then you look at the head of
9:15
NATO, Mark Rutte, who famously calls Donald Trump daddy.
9:19
He's obviously trying to keep it all together and he thinks that
9:22
that's his job. And then you've got Britain,
9:25
which is no longer in the EU, obviously, but still very
9:28
central in NATO, and Keir Starmer, who on the one hand is,
9:32
what shall we say, sucking up to Donald Trump?
9:35
I mean, remember one of those scenes in the air where he hands
9:38
over the letter from the king to say, you, Donald Trump, you are
9:42
invited on a second state visit. You know, so all of that
9:46
massaging of the ego, but at the same time, does that really help
9:52
is that, you know, Britain is tremendously invested in Ukraine
9:57
and British officials and military are increasingly
10:02
worried about this threat from Russia because what do we see?
10:05
We see Russian drones buzzing European airports.
10:09
We have Russian warships threatening our coast.
10:13
There is a lot of disinformation, misinformation.
10:16
There is sabotage on British and other European soil and there
10:21
are cyber attacks. So in the security and military
10:25
intelligence circles are very, very worried about Russia and
10:29
thinking that we may be on our own when it comes to resisting
10:34
that threat. I think.
10:35
Lindsay's been quite pessimistic there.
10:36
I think we have to remember that.
10:38
You know, we've got three more years of Donald.
10:40
Trump. This isn't.
10:41
This isn't. Forever.
10:43
And yes, the US. Transatlantic Alliance.
10:47
Is is fraying and the. Europeans don't trust the
10:50
Americans and we've. Seen Emmanuel Macron, Keir
10:54
Starmer beat. Paths to the White House door
10:57
to. Try and keep the Americans.
10:59
On side. I think this is a.
11:02
Moment where Europe has to step up for its own security.
11:05
And indeed, it has started. To do that, and it probably
11:08
wouldn't have done that if Donald Trump hadn't told them.
11:11
To get on with it. So I think you know there.
11:12
Is there is a? Positive to all this in terms of
11:15
an increase in in defence spending.
11:17
And and and. Reducing the the over.
11:20
Reliance on the Americans, but I think the problem.
11:22
Is that if you talk to people at MI 6 they say look for every.
11:28
One or. Two bits of intelligence that we
11:30
give the Americans, they give us four or five.
11:33
Back they have such an. Extraordinary intelligence
11:35
apparatus. And that I think is.
11:37
One of the crown jewels of the sort of special relationship.
11:40
That the the Brits in particular.
11:43
Don't want to lose. I think Ukraine is is at a.
11:46
Crucial point, I suspect. That Lindsay is right.
11:49
That there. Won't be an imminent outbreak of
11:52
peace because what's. On offer from the Russians.
11:56
Is Ukraine losing more territory?
12:00
Than it holds at the moment. So.
12:01
So there is almost nothing to be gained apart from obviously
12:04
ending the slaughter. And the cost?
12:07
From suing for peace. Right now and the great.
12:10
Irony will be that as the. Americans step.
12:14
They also make money which Which?
12:16
Is Donald Trump's chief objective in the sense that.
12:19
NATO has set up this program where the Ukrainians use
12:22
European money to buy. American military hardware.
12:26
Yeah, I mean that that that does seem to be one of the slightly
12:29
mad things that Europe has done in order to keep America on side
12:34
rather than think about its own domestic economies and what it
12:38
might benefit from a more military based that set of
12:42
investments over the coming years.
12:44
I mean, isn't the truth that the sort of the international
12:47
alliances that we're relying on, the EU and NATO, were built for
12:51
a different time when America's attitude towards the world was
12:55
to absolutely underpin Europe and when NATO was a genuine
13:00
alliance? I mean, they're, they're pulling
13:02
apart now, aren't they? Just as Europe needs to step
13:04
together. Look, that's absolutely true.
13:06
But then there's another issue and then I think that Jonathan
13:08
may be right here about my pessimism because there are two
13:12
things. There is Donald Trump and the
13:14
administration and then there are the institutions.
13:16
Now the institutions intelligence sharing was the one
13:19
that Jonathan mentioned. That sort of goes ahead.
13:22
Now I know that the State Department has been hollowed out
13:25
and yet you know that cooperation still goes on with
13:29
European countries, particularly Britain and the State
13:31
Department, the FBI and the British police and so on.
13:34
All of that is continuing at a certain level.
13:37
We don't really know the extent to which the institutions will
13:40
endure and those institutional connections will endure.
13:44
I suspect that. They they will endure.
13:46
And I think we also have to remember that America was.
13:50
Turning its back on Europe anyway that it's been a fairly.
13:54
Consistent strain of American foreign policy that they were
13:56
more concerned about Pacific than they were about Europe.
14:00
And I suspect that when Trump talks about supporting parties
14:08
that are within his own. Tradition within Europe,
14:13
actually, he's probably not going to expend.
14:15
Much money or capital? Doing that, he's still going.
14:18
To be much more focused on China and and on Taiwan.
14:23
If we can turn to talk about the the cause of a lot of the
14:26
political instability and turbulence that we've seen
14:29
around the world, to what extent is all basically economic?
14:35
You know that we have a series of societies around the world
14:39
that are struggling to deliver improved living standards to
14:45
ordinary people, except perhaps in China and to some extent
14:50
India and the Far East and, and, and that is what's causing
14:55
political upheaval everywhere, isn't it?
14:57
Well, I think you've got a specific issue about Gen.
14:59
Z there, and this has been one of the fascinating things that
15:02
we've seen in 2025. We've had these Gen.
15:04
Z uprisings everywhere from Madagascar to Nepal to Kenya to
15:10
lots of different places. And we see that, you know, here
15:13
in the UK, which is, you know, this generation which can't
15:16
afford housing isn't going to be better off than his parents.
15:20
In fact, they're going to be much worse off than their
15:22
parents. So we see a lot of of
15:24
discontent, discontent there. And some of that, of course,
15:28
goes back to the 2008 financial crash.
15:31
And then, you know, nobody can ever predict when there is going
15:35
to be a financial crash. We don't know if there's going
15:38
to be 1 next year. But we do know that certainly
15:41
the tech companies, many analysts believe that they are
15:44
very overvalued. I'm reading that book by Andrew
15:47
Ross Sorkin 1929 at the moment. And it makes your hair stand on
15:51
end because you see how the crash comes and they try and
15:55
stop it and it goes down a little bit more and they try and
15:58
stop it and it goes down a little bit more.
15:59
But the momentum is relentless and of course then it spreads
16:03
into the wider economy and we have the the Great Depression in
16:06
the 30s. And then of course we know where
16:08
that ended in, in a World War. Now, history doesn't repeat
16:12
itself, but it does sometimes rhyme.
16:14
And I think that's why so many people are reading that book at
16:17
the moment. The other thing I would say
16:19
about Gen. Z, which I found very
16:21
interesting on a recent trip to China, is although China, yes,
16:25
they, they're still, they have growth rates not as high as they
16:28
were, you know, 10 years ago, but they're still pretty good.
16:31
But the Gen. Z there are very depressed.
16:35
They have this concept called Tang Ping, which means to lie
16:39
flat, in other words, to drop out.
16:41
They can't be bothered and that's because they have a huge
16:45
problem to graduate. Unemployment, 12 million
16:48
graduates a year in China. But you know, if you get a lunch
16:53
delivered by May Twang, which is the equivalent of Deliveroo,
16:56
probably the person who comes on the motorbike, the woman or man
17:01
will be a graduate because they can't find graduate level jobs.
17:04
And increasingly they are going in for automation.
17:07
Now that is will make their factories even more efficient.
17:11
I saw incredible factory which was making cars, which was just
17:15
all almost all automated, all robots.
17:18
But there again, that creates some more of an unemployment
17:21
problem. So I think that Gen.
17:23
Z is something to watch in China as well as elsewhere in the
17:26
world. I, I think a lot of people will
17:28
be extraordinarily surprised and, and, and, and have a sort
17:31
of a, an almost pleasure in the idea that China also has a, a, a
17:36
problem with young people who can't be bothered because you
17:39
don't imagine that at all, do you?
17:41
I mean as as the parent of university age children tearing
17:45
my hair out most of the time, the idea that they are facing
17:49
the same issues as the developed W now is is quite a surprise.
17:54
But it's also, you know, it's so fascinating because of course,
17:57
these are the children of the one child policy.
18:00
They tend not to have any brothers and sisters.
18:02
Some people would say that they've been spoiled.
18:04
We used to have this phrase near the little emperors.
18:06
But it's also because you do have a totalitarian system.
18:10
And there's a sense, well, what can you do?
18:12
You can't resist. So if you look back to 1989, you
18:15
think, you know, young people tend to be rebellious, right?
18:18
So you look back at the 1989 generation, they stand, you
18:22
know, stood in front of the tanks.
18:24
Well, the current generation knows that that isn't going to
18:27
work. And they, you know, they do not
18:29
rebel. Anybody who rebels in China who
18:32
is against the system will certainly be penalised and
18:36
possibly end up in prison. So what form of resistance is
18:39
there? Well, Tang Ping lie flat.
18:42
Jonathan, I mean, whether or not there's an AI bubble and some
18:45
people obviously think that it's all going to go well.
18:47
And actually, you know, there might be a huge AI boost,
18:50
particularly in the American economy that might add to
18:53
American GDP next year. But either way, there seems to
18:56
be a decoupling of of growth with employment and ordinary
19:03
living standards in that you can have growth and and people don't
19:06
feel it. Up to a point, Chris, yes, I
19:09
mean unemployment in America is 4.6%.
19:12
It's pretty high and if. The fears about AI are to be
19:17
believed. It's, you know.
19:18
It could go higher because. People are going to lose their
19:21
jobs through automation. And I I'm not sure.
19:24
That you know, that those fears that we had about the Internet
19:28
when that came along 34 to 40 years ago, and we were.
19:31
Saying the same thing I think. I think this is of a different
19:34
order of of magnitude potentially.
19:37
So yeah, there will there, there will at some point I think be a
19:40
be a decoupling and people will begin to feel it.
19:43
One of the interesting. Things to look out.
19:45
For in 2026, is the competition between.
19:49
China and America over building massive artificial intelligence
19:54
companies the. Point at which they agree or
19:58
don't agree to reach. Some kind of?
20:01
Cooperation. Maybe that's too strong a word,
20:03
because we've got a state visit between America and China in
20:06
2020. 6 And we're going to have this interesting parallel of
20:10
sort. Of strategic competition America
20:14
supporting. Taiwan announcing a very large.
20:17
Military aid package for Taiwan. But also.
20:20
A certain amount of buddying up with with China in the way that.
20:24
Donald Trump likes to do. With despotic leaders who he
20:29
rather. Admires and respects.
20:31
Before we move on from China, Lindsay, what do you think will
20:35
happen with Taiwan this year? It is believed that the People's
20:38
Liberation Army would not be ready for any full scale
20:40
invasion of Taiwan until 2027. So relax, you've got another
20:44
year. Even so, I I find it hard to
20:47
believe that a full scale invasion would be the way that
20:51
China would take control of Taiwan.
20:54
If it were to do that, it would be much easier to do some kind
20:58
of blockade. And so I don't think it's going
21:01
to be exactly as we imagine it with the, you know, the choppers
21:04
overhead and the and the warships piloting in
21:08
immediately. I think that what is really more
21:12
significant, it goes back to what Jonathan was just saying,
21:15
which is this issue about AI and data centers.
21:17
And this is where I see China having a real advantage over
21:21
America because China has far more green energy than any other
21:26
country. And we're talking about wind
21:28
farms, we're talking about solar power and they are really
21:32
building on that because these new data centers which will be
21:35
needed for AI. And I think we're going to see a
21:37
lot of building of these data centers in the coming year.
21:41
They will all be powered by green energy.
21:44
And it's they have a seamless system in China, you know, from
21:48
the government through, you know, their policies and through
21:52
to private or semi private or state companies which do things.
21:56
They they make things happen in a way that, you know, America
21:59
and European countries and capitalist systems find much
22:01
harder. Now Donald Trump has issued all
22:05
green energy. He says, you know, the
22:09
environment, environmental concern, global warming, the
22:12
climate crisis. He says it's all a con and has
22:14
stopped putting money into that. So what that means is that the
22:19
the big day, the big tech companies are like, whoa, whoa,
22:22
whoa, where are we going to get all this energy from for these
22:25
new data centers? We're going to need massive
22:27
amounts of energy and the grid can't cope with it.
22:31
And yet they don't have a plan for dealing with that.
22:34
So I think that that will be an area where we may see China
22:38
streaking ahead of America, even though America is ahead
22:43
technologically on AI and also very much ahead on the the most
22:48
advanced kind of of semiconductors, silicon chips.
22:52
I think it's fair to say that we spent probably more time in 2025
22:57
talking about the Middle East and Gaza than any other topic.
23:01
And and, you know, it's just striking how it has dropped off
23:04
the agenda in the last month since the ceasefire.
23:08
But it's it's going to come back, isn't it?
23:10
Because first of all, the killing is still going on.
23:14
But they've got to get onto stage 2 of this whole process,
23:19
otherwise it will unravel. Jonathan, I guess that's.
23:21
True. I mean, I think.
23:22
Hamas has been massively. Weakened as Hezbollah has been
23:27
weakened in Lebanon as as. The Iranians have been weakened
23:31
by their war with Israel in 2025, but you're right that that
23:36
what we're witnessing is certainly not the outbreak of
23:39
peace. It's a sort of return.
23:41
To the relatively low level. Conflict where?
23:45
The Israelis continue to carry. Out operations against suspected
23:49
Hamas targets and it's all. A bit beneath the the.
23:52
Line of what? Makes the the Evening News, but
23:56
it isn't peace in our time and. I think there are several
24:00
conflicts around the world actually, that the Donald Trump.
24:04
Claims to have solved which aren't really solved.
24:07
He's just hoping, I guess, that they stay at a low.
24:10
Enough level so that when it comes to the time to choose the.
24:14
Winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace. Prize, it actually turns out.
24:17
To be him, but the situation is indeed unresolved.
24:22
Massive issues about who's going to be in.
24:25
This multinational force. To keep the peace in.
24:29
Gaza. Are the Israelis going to
24:31
withdraw any? Further than they have?
24:33
Probably not. And who's?
24:35
Going to pay for the. Reconstruction because.
24:38
If you're a Gulf state with lots of money, you're not going to
24:42
want to pay for the reconstruction.
24:44
Of the Gaza Strip. If you think that Israel.
24:46
Might attack at. At any given moment.
24:49
And so I think we won't really enter into a new phase of.
24:52
Understanding what's going to happen.
24:54
In the Middle East, until we discover whether Benjamin
24:57
Netanyahu remains the prime. Minister.
24:59
Israel's longest serving prime. Minister so far, but there are
25:03
elections. That are due to.
25:05
Come up and I. You know.
25:06
Whether it comes to a? So-called 2 state solution.
25:10
Any significant breakthrough Very, very unlikely to.
25:13
Happen as long as Netanyahu is in power.
25:16
And indeed, as long as. Abu Mazam, the leader of the
25:19
Palestinian Authority. In in.
25:23
The West Bank as long. As he is there too that you know
25:26
what role he takes. And what role the Palestinian
25:28
Authority takes in any of. This.
25:30
Well, if the Israelis have their say, it doesn't have any role at
25:33
all. And so I think that's something
25:34
that also. Needs, needs to be resolved.
25:36
Lindsay, How how do the Israeli elections change the terms here?
25:40
I mean, you know, Netanyahu's people are already making the
25:44
case that, look, he said he would bring the hostages home
25:47
and he has, you know, his policy of standing firm of aggressive,
25:52
you know, policy towards Hamas and Gaza is ultimately what has
25:57
worked. And they want to keep him in
25:59
power. I mean, might they pull it off?
26:02
Look, Netanyahu was massively unpopular after October the 7th
26:07
because he was seen as it was on his watch.
26:11
You had this massive failure of intelligence and this appalling
26:15
massacre of of Jews and he was blamed for that.
26:18
But he has come back from that. And yeah, it is perfectly
26:23
possible that he will, that he will win again.
26:27
But even if he doesn't, the left in Israeli politics has been
26:31
tremendously weakened by that. Where, you know, I've spent time
26:36
in Israel, you know, over the year and those left wing voices,
26:40
you know, who want a peace process, who want peace with the
26:43
Palestinians, they're very, very few and far between these days.
26:48
So any alternative to Netanyahu? I'm not sure how different they
26:53
would be. They might not be as effective
26:55
within the Israeli political system, but they're not going to
26:58
be far to the to the left. I think that, you know, it's,
27:03
it's quite likely that Gaza will stagnate.
27:05
It's now sort of in two zones. They have a sort of Hamas zone
27:09
in the middle bit and then a, a zone which is controlled by the
27:12
Israelis and with the different clan leaders and the Israeli
27:15
sponsored militia all around. I mean, it's a mess, frankly,
27:19
and people living in appalling conditions.
27:22
But where we may see the most movement is in the West Bank
27:26
because under Netanyahu the settlers have been enabled to go
27:30
in and take more land and push more Palestinians off their land
27:35
and so on, build more settlements.
27:37
This is all with the approval and sometimes encouragement of
27:40
the Israeli state. And frankly, they're on a roll.
27:44
And I find it hard to see that any incoming government, even if
27:49
it's not Netanyahu, will do anything to stop that.
27:54
Yes. And, and might the international
27:56
ramification of that over the next year also be more of what
28:01
we've just seen in Australia where we, we, we might now see
28:07
the growth of, of attacks, whether they are within a
28:12
network or whether they are lone wolves or, you know, lone, lone
28:16
actors in a, in a way that we have in the past.
28:21
And that that will be the thing that sort of keeps this on the
28:25
international agenda. We have just seen the most
28:28
horrendous example of it and and terrorism.
28:33
And for all that in the UK, the threat is seen as much more from
28:39
Russia now of state of, you know, a state threat.
28:43
Terrorism doesn't go away. Terrorism is is still there and
28:48
that is always a danger. Thompson, I think one of the.
28:53
Tragedies of this whole situation.
28:55
In the Middle East is. That.
28:57
Even if intelligence and security chiefs from the UK to
29:00
Australia say. Well, look, you know what's
29:03
happened in Gaza has been some kind of recruiting Sergeant for
29:09
acts of terrorism. Not that.
29:11
They could ever be excused is not fundamentally going to be
29:15
able to shift. The dial in terms of how we
29:18
handle Israel, for example, it. You know, we've seen in 2025
29:23
that all roads lead through Washington.
29:25
All roads lead through Donald. Trump there isn't a corner.
29:29
Of international diplomacy that that he isn't attempting to make
29:34
make his. Market so.
29:36
In in a way there's. Almost a sort of powerlessness
29:39
in terms of our foreign policy. Well, that's how it seems.
29:41
To me when when you know when you try and join the dots.
29:45
Between acts of terrorism and trying to calm the situation in
29:49
the Middle East, I'm just not sure we can.
29:50
Do very much about it, yeah, it doesn't seem to have any, any
29:55
impact at all. But I suppose I, I, I, I wonder
29:58
whether we're sort of a post Al Qaeda, post ISIS world now where
30:05
that frustration and fury felt by many people will come out in
30:11
the kinds of attacks that we've seen in Bondi.
30:13
So we're not in a post al Qaeda, post ISIS world.
30:16
You've talked about, you know, we've seen this horrendous
30:18
attack in Australia. Look at West Africa, what's
30:22
happening in the Sahel. You have Islamic State and Al
30:27
Qaeda linked groups which are increasingly powerful and taking
30:31
more and more territory in Mali, in Niger, in Burkina Faso.
30:37
And then we see coups. There was a coup attempt in, in
30:41
Benin just a couple of weeks ago in the middle of, of December.
30:45
We have the Russians in that area and we, we have, you know,
30:49
Islamic State and, and, and Al Qaeda taking more and more
30:53
territory. We're not even looking at it,
30:55
but it's happening. Yeah, and what's interesting to
30:58
watch is. If you're an intelligence.
31:00
Chief, you've got the old enemy, as it were.
31:02
In terms of al Qaeda and ISIS and.
31:05
The whole tilt to Islamist. Acts of terror that.
31:09
Began after. The September the 11th attacks
31:12
in 2001, so you've got that. Competing priority with what
31:15
the? Head of MI 6.
31:17
Was talking about which is which is an even older enemy if you
31:21
like, which is which is the. Russians and.
31:24
Actually I. I was quite struck.
31:26
Listening to the speech by the new head.
31:28
Of MI 6 that. She wasn't actually saying
31:31
anything new. She would, she would.
31:32
She was basically making a plea for resources.
31:36
Which intelligence chiefs do they want to carry on being able
31:40
to fund their activities? Against the likes.
31:43
Of ISIS and al. Al Qaeda, but they also.
31:45
Need money increasingly because of the you.
31:49
Know the sort of. Sub just below the level of war
31:52
activity. As the head of our Mai 6 called
31:54
it by Moscow itself. Look, finally, I mean, we, we've
31:57
talked about a lot of the big themes that we're going to be
32:00
talking about over the next year.
32:02
What else do you think we should be just keeping an eye on and
32:05
having a think about that may not be quite so obvious,
32:08
Lindsay. Oh, I'm such an obvious person,
32:11
Krishnan, because I'm thinking about, you know, the
32:14
humanitarian crisis in Sudan and I'm worrying about whether the
32:18
war in Sudan may spread because we see rumblings in Ethiopia and
32:23
we see rumblings in South Sudan. They have internal strife in
32:27
both of those countries, but they're on the borders and they
32:29
can all get get mixed up. So those are the kind of things
32:33
that I'm that I'm looking at. But I suppose, you know, events,
32:38
dear girl, events, we never know what's going to happen.
32:41
We're always taken by surprise. We never predict the big things,
32:46
do we? Nobody started off saying, oh,
32:48
you know, the Berlin Wall might fall down this year or, you
32:51
know, I think that. So, you know, some people will
32:53
fly their planes into the Twin Towers.
32:55
We never know. Your prediction is a mug's game.
32:59
I'm, you know, whatever you may think, I'm not Mystic Meg.
33:03
Jonathan, I'm particularly interested in the.
33:05
Election in Bangladesh which is happening in.
33:08
February. It's the first election.
33:09
Since. Sheikh Hasina fled into exile in
33:13
India and it's an opportunity for the main Islamist party in
33:17
Bangladesh. To try and break the mould of
33:19
Bangladeshi politics. And insert itself between the.
33:24
Corrupt dynastic families. Which have from from.
33:28
The both the main party and the opposition.
33:30
Which have run Bangladesh. In the past, so I'm.
33:32
Interested in that. The other thing I'm interested
33:35
in is is the local elections in the UK in the.
33:38
Spring because I think. I think any election in the West
33:42
now in Europe is increasingly not just dependent on the
33:46
government's economic. Performance.
33:48
But it is about the issue of migration, it is about the issue
33:53
of the European. Court of Human Rights.
33:54
Whether the UK stays in it? And this whole trend which?
33:58
I think I could see. Spreading across Europe of
34:02
either right wing or or far right.
34:04
Or indeed far left parties campaigning on an anti
34:09
migration. Platform and I think.
34:11
That is the way the world is. Going as as.
34:14
Climate change continues to be. A massive.
34:16
Issue as more and more people want to leave where they are, as
34:20
more and more people use their phones to see what life looks.
34:24
Like on the other side in in richer Western countries, I
34:28
think that's a trend. Which is going to.
34:30
Carry on. And this hardening.
34:32
Towards immigration, which we're seeing here in the UK, but I
34:35
think. That is going to become a major
34:38
issue across. Many European countries and and
34:40
finally, Lindsay, obviously the the big story, the big
34:43
international story of the year about which I'm sure we'll be
34:45
talking to you a great deal, is what's going to be the impact
34:50
and the winner of the World Cup. Oh yeah, That is my absolute
34:54
special subject. That's when some men kick a ball
34:58
around. Is that right?
34:59
Yeah. Although the bizarre thing about
35:01
the World Cup and FIFA now is that it, it, it, it has become
35:04
international, hasn't it? You know, Infantino is suddenly
35:08
an international figure in global diplomacy, it seems.
35:12
And peace prizes. Well, Peace Prize, He gave a
35:15
Peace Prize to Donald Trump. And then at one point during,
35:19
you know, one of the things on the Middle East, you had all of
35:22
these leaders coming up and suddenly he was there as well.
35:24
What on earth did he got to do with it?
35:26
He has positioned himself extremely cleverly with regards
35:30
to Donald Trump because for Donald Trump, everything is a
35:34
business deal. And I suspect that for Gianni
35:37
Infantini, everything is a business deal, too.
35:39
So, you know, this is a match made in heaven and I would say
35:44
they're both going to win. Well, there we are.
35:46
We began and ended with Trump, which was source of inevitable.
35:49
Thank you both very much indeed. And that's it for the forecast
35:54
for 2025. Have a great holiday season and
35:57
we'll see you again next year.