Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Silver Breaks Historic Level!🚨Crypto Technical Analysis with DataDash

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Silver Breaks Historic Level!🚨Crypto Technical Analysis with DataDash · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:00
Speaker 1: Let's dive in to safe haven assets today and how
0:02
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0:04
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Speaker 1: It does help the channel. All right, let's get.
0:38
Speaker 2: Into it today.
0:38
Speaker 1: I wanted to bring in Data Dash. He had came
0:41
Speaker 1: in last week. We thought let's have him back now
0:43
Speaker 1: that we've got some more volatility in the Marcus. So
0:45
Speaker 1: great to have you back.
0:46
Speaker 3: Paul.
0:46
Speaker 2: How are you. I'm doing well, Paul, glad to be back.
0:49
Speaker 2: How are you, my friend?
0:50
Speaker 3: Good?
0:51
Speaker 1: I'm going to play a clip for you because this
0:52
Speaker 1: is getting into the silver all time high that we
0:56
Speaker 1: experienced this morning, and what this might mean for the market.
0:58
Speaker 1: Let's cut to that soot one look at these shorts.
1:01
Speaker 4: Gold and silver is just sitting there and then bam
1:04
Speaker 4: and there we have it.
1:04
Speaker 2: Fifty one dollars already have fifteen dollars.
1:08
Speaker 4: Historic precious metals times.
1:10
Speaker 2: Really interesting to be alive, in my opinion, suppressed for
1:15
Speaker 2: well forty five years.
1:17
Speaker 5: A dollar twenty in silver above US futures that.
1:21
Speaker 2: The market is now in backwardation and a shortage in London.
1:25
Speaker 2: It's my opinion that ends in a failure to deliver.
1:28
Speaker 4: Notice to US based clientele suspending all metals shipments to
1:34
Speaker 4: the United States is just one hundred and thirty five
1:38
Speaker 4: million ounces, roughly half of the market's daily trading volume.
1:43
Speaker 2: This has happened in the past, but not this extreme.
1:46
Speaker 5: It's a slow moving short squeeze because there's no fucking
1:49
Speaker 5: metal available in London.
1:51
Speaker 6: Do you think silver could sustain above fifty dollars unless suddenly.
1:55
Speaker 2: Peace breaks out, It's going to go go way further.
1:58
Speaker 5: What I'm here to tell you is that this a
2:00
Speaker 5: fake high, a trap. You're going to see another run
2:03
Speaker 5: up in crypto. When bitcoin hits one hundred and fifty
2:05
Speaker 5: thousand dollars, silver will be thirty five bucks. You won't
2:09
Speaker 5: find silver in the shops because the shops will be
2:12
Speaker 5: accepting bitcoin for their silver. That's gonna sound it probably
2:15
Speaker 5: sounds crazy to you type yep, if you think that
2:18
Speaker 5: sounds crazy to you.
2:20
Speaker 1: All right, So of course, you know, listen, the ninja's
2:23
Speaker 1: always doing ninja things, you know, so and I loved him.
2:26
Speaker 2: We had another show once.
2:28
Speaker 1: We've got a fifty dollars silver coming in. How well
2:32
Speaker 1: does this how well does this chart out?
2:34
Speaker 2: Paul?
2:35
Speaker 1: Is this something that we're going to see a short
2:36
Speaker 1: time high? Do you feel like this starts to leverage
2:39
Speaker 1: in like a lot of these silver bugs are saying
2:41
Speaker 1: right now where there's just not any supply? What do
2:43
Speaker 1: you think?
2:45
Speaker 2: Yeah, you know this.
2:46
Speaker 7: I'll just go right over to the chart on silver.
2:48
Speaker 7: So earlier this year, don't give me a perfectly shown there.
2:53
Speaker 7: Earlier this year, we were trading you know, into this
2:56
Speaker 7: region here like thirty bucks essentially where that gentleman just
2:59
Speaker 7: said we might come back to if bitcoin push is higher.
3:01
Speaker 2: Which is interesting. The fact that.
3:03
Speaker 7: They've all you know, generally in the past, you would
3:05
Speaker 7: have thought like, okay, something like bitcoin pumped and then
3:07
Speaker 7: golden silver would wait and something like that. But they've
3:09
Speaker 7: always just been moving in tandem, so that's an interesting concept.
3:12
Speaker 7: But anyways, we were trading in this region. Personally, I
3:14
Speaker 7: was just looking just on the technical side of things,
3:16
Speaker 7: a little pushback into this area, which we got at
3:18
Speaker 7: twenty eight, and then that would launch us into the
3:20
Speaker 7: new This is not the all time high, but on
3:22
Speaker 7: this you know it is going to be that next region.
3:24
Speaker 7: And forty four dollars was the next major area I
3:26
Speaker 7: was targeting basically from the beginning of the year, just
3:28
Speaker 7: to see if we'd get a cool down. Obviously that
3:30
Speaker 7: was the next major just Fibonacci resistance that we had
3:33
Speaker 7: at the time just nope, you know, just basically all gas,
3:37
Speaker 7: no breaks right through it. You've got a nice little
3:39
Speaker 7: wick here that I'm sure many will look to this
3:41
Speaker 7: like it's potentially a blowoff top and things of that
3:43
Speaker 7: nature with this move. I mean, it's not that it
3:46
Speaker 7: couldn't be, but overall, I'd say, as long as we're
3:48
Speaker 7: staying above forty four dollars, which means we could cool
3:51
Speaker 7: off here a bit.
3:51
Speaker 2: I mean that's probably you know.
3:53
Speaker 7: It's about a thirteen percent, you know, little pullback if
3:56
Speaker 7: you get it back test this little region. I don't
3:58
Speaker 7: see why we wouldn't continue higher towards sixty, which is
4:01
Speaker 7: the next just major area above here.
4:03
Speaker 2: And I mean again.
4:04
Speaker 7: It's a place where for me, I'm always urging the
4:07
Speaker 7: caution at these places because this is this is talking
4:10
Speaker 7: to somebody who's invested in silver already, not necessarily someone
4:14
Speaker 7: who's looking to buy brand new silver today. Right the
4:17
Speaker 7: risk is so high for the pullback versus the continuation.
4:19
Speaker 7: But when we're looking at it, it's just it's an
4:21
Speaker 7: unstoppable train right now. That gold, I mean, all the
4:24
Speaker 7: assets that are just seeing all these highs right now.
4:27
Speaker 1: Well I think you know, you look at the slight
4:29
Speaker 1: pullback on bitcoin. We're going to get to that in
4:31
Speaker 1: a second. But Bitcoin, of course is retraced a little bit.
4:34
Speaker 1: Would you buy bitcoin over silver and gold right now?
4:38
Speaker 1: What would be your play?
4:41
Speaker 7: So it's such a if I'm looking at it in
4:43
Speaker 7: the sense of a risk management profile, it's you know,
4:46
Speaker 7: silver what just is coming up and breaking an all
4:48
Speaker 7: time high.
4:48
Speaker 2: Gold is basically just doing the same.
4:50
Speaker 7: But yet Bitcoin, however, has at least from our recent
4:53
Speaker 7: all time I is up one hundred percent on that,
4:57
Speaker 7: It's a tough one to say. Personally, I guess I
4:59
Speaker 7: would probably go lean into more of a gold or
5:02
Speaker 7: silver in comparison to just Bitcoin being so high right
5:04
Speaker 7: this moment. But across the board, I would just say
5:07
Speaker 7: wait for a pullback for any of the three, and
5:09
Speaker 7: Bitcoin would be my real choice of the three. But
5:11
Speaker 7: if I had to pick something right today based on
5:14
Speaker 7: where they're at, you know, it's a little tough to
5:15
Speaker 7: just go all in At one hundred and twenty thousand
5:17
Speaker 7: dollars bitcoin compared to four thousand grand, those market caps
5:20
Speaker 7: are so much bigger, So I guess I hope that
5:23
Speaker 7: makes sense.
5:23
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, for sure.
5:25
Speaker 1: Well, we're going to get into bitcoin and chart it
5:27
Speaker 1: because there could be some possible entry points for some
5:29
Speaker 1: of you that did miss the all time high with bitcoin.
5:32
Speaker 1: But back to the point on silver, a lot of
5:35
Speaker 1: this is really centered around delivery, physical delivery, which is
5:38
Speaker 1: one of the things that is going to start really
5:40
Speaker 1: causing a little bit of pressure in the market, which
5:42
Speaker 1: could possibly push it to sixty bucks. This would be
5:45
Speaker 1: insane if that occurs. The real question is do you
5:48
Speaker 1: think some of the silver bugs will start to exit
5:51
Speaker 1: that market if we do see that kind of top,
5:53
Speaker 1: because many people would look at silver and compare that
5:57
Speaker 1: to maybe even where gold had come off the around
6:00
Speaker 1: at about twenty five hundred and now it's training at
6:02
Speaker 1: over four thousand dollars an our. So right, I don't
6:05
Speaker 1: know what do you have any any experience with the
6:09
Speaker 1: silver community in understanding whether or not they're hoddlers. I mean,
6:13
Speaker 1: they've been holding I think they are.
6:14
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say I think they're the kings of Hoddlers.
6:16
Speaker 7: Yeah, if they're anything to that, I think it goes
6:19
Speaker 7: into the idea too, that where everybody's probably anticipating we
6:22
Speaker 7: are going, you know, with everything reaching these highs as well,
6:24
Speaker 7: I know that everyone's you know, waiting with baited breath
6:27
Speaker 7: for that big crash that's right around the corner, that's
6:29
Speaker 7: been right around the corner since you know, twenty sixteen.
6:32
Speaker 7: Probably for me, I actually do anticipate that we will
6:35
Speaker 7: see a sizable correction into the next couple of years,
6:38
Speaker 7: twenty twenty seven, twenty twenty six potentially being the start
6:41
Speaker 7: of that. And with somebody that's been holding silver already,
6:45
Speaker 7: I would imagine that they probably would hoddle it out.
6:47
Speaker 7: They probably may look back after we hit something like
6:49
Speaker 7: sixty dollars and you might see a slight retrace like
6:52
Speaker 7: thirty percent in which they sold, But overall, I think
6:54
Speaker 7: that they're going to hold. I think that that's like
6:56
Speaker 7: the XRP community of metals.
6:59
Speaker 2: Interesting.
7:00
Speaker 1: Okay, well, let's jump over to bitcoin because I want
7:03
Speaker 1: to get into a couple of points here. Bitcoin hits
7:05
Speaker 1: a new all time high one twenty six to two
7:07
Speaker 1: that very day, then it crashed. Coincidence, this was a
7:10
Speaker 1: whole lineup around a thesis that was pushed out there.
7:15
Speaker 1: You then responded right here on this what exactly do
7:20
Speaker 1: you feel happened during this pullback on bitcoin?
7:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, so on the couple months back we were talking
7:28
Speaker 2: about bitcoin, let's just flip over to it real quick.
7:31
Speaker 7: And I was looking for potentially one hundred and thirty
7:34
Speaker 7: thousand dollars and that was into the end of the
7:39
Speaker 7: week of September twenty ninth. Let me see if I
7:41
Speaker 7: could pull it up really quickly for you. Here It
7:43
Speaker 7: was right here so earlier this year is looking for
7:46
Speaker 7: the September twenty ninth week of this twenty ninth I guess,
7:49
Speaker 7: so that does take us into you know, October six whatever,
7:52
Speaker 7: what have you. And that's a correlation among a couple
7:54
Speaker 7: of things based on this is based on a little
7:56
Speaker 7: harmonic pattern here, there's also a larger one at play,
7:59
Speaker 7: and another piece of it is just taking simple Fibonacci time,
8:02
Speaker 7: which realistically, if you were to just span out, the
8:04
Speaker 7: person on that tweet did the same thing. They just
8:06
Speaker 7: basically counted out how long that we were in the
8:09
Speaker 7: twenty seventeen bull Run from low to high, and essentially
8:12
Speaker 7: we did the same thing here in the same timeframe
8:14
Speaker 7: where we you know, topped out last year, our last
8:17
Speaker 7: rally in twenty twenty one. If you were to take
8:19
Speaker 7: the time from the ultimate low here and strapulate that out,
8:23
Speaker 7: it was going to be the week of the twenty
8:24
Speaker 7: ninth or aka, you know, sixth of October, and so
8:28
Speaker 7: a lot of people are looking at that week in time,
8:30
Speaker 7: and it just so happens that we came up and
8:31
Speaker 7: put in a high on that exact date.
8:35
Speaker 2: And in the short term here.
8:38
Speaker 7: One of the things, especially in that video that I
8:40
Speaker 7: put out now, is that with that being something that's
8:43
Speaker 7: being said Paul, it's it's something that I feel like
8:46
Speaker 7: is interesting this time around, because if you've ever been in.
8:48
Speaker 2: This market in twenty seventeen, twenty twenty.
8:50
Speaker 7: One, at every high, we always had the euphoria, the
8:53
Speaker 7: everybody's super excited. Everybody's looking for much higher this time around.
8:56
Speaker 7: The I think you mentioned it earlier on X is
8:58
Speaker 7: that PTSD is kicking and everybody's very you know, fragile
9:01
Speaker 7: around this market. I think that everybody's trying to catch
9:04
Speaker 7: the top and sell out before the big crash occurs.
9:08
Speaker 7: And with everybody thinking that one way, I just feel
9:10
Speaker 7: like it's just the the you know, we're positioned in
9:13
Speaker 7: the opposite again right here. So even though I do
9:15
Speaker 7: see a pullback in the next coming months here, I
9:17
Speaker 7: don't think it's here yet. And where we're at right now,
9:19
Speaker 7: I think is setting us up for actually a short squeeze,
9:22
Speaker 7: and just locally here, I'll go back to the chart.
9:28
Speaker 7: Just locally, as a trader, I look for the same
9:30
Speaker 7: setup almost each and every week, which is basically where
9:33
Speaker 7: we put in a high for the previous week and
9:35
Speaker 7: then the new week starts, and anybody that took short
9:37
Speaker 7: positions over here, because this was our high last week
9:39
Speaker 7: and this was the all time high on October the sixth.
9:41
Speaker 2: Again, I'm sorry, this was.
9:43
Speaker 7: The six here, but we came up and we took
9:45
Speaker 7: that high, putting in the ultimate high there now. And then,
9:47
Speaker 7: of course you're stopping out anybody that took some short
9:49
Speaker 7: positions here. You're also getting breakout traders entering right here
9:53
Speaker 7: that you know are coming in on the all time
9:54
Speaker 7: high break and then we start to pull back here, right,
9:57
Speaker 7: that fuels.
9:57
Speaker 2: A bit of a pullback.
9:58
Speaker 7: And when that occurred, especially because it was on the
10:01
Speaker 7: six now, and everybody's seeing this idea that the four
10:04
Speaker 7: year cycle is done, the market is topped. There are
10:07
Speaker 7: so many people aggressively shorting this market right here, and
10:11
Speaker 7: ultimately all we're doing, Paul, is we're just pulling back again.
10:14
Speaker 7: One thing I look for is you get these really
10:15
Speaker 7: sharp moves up, sorry, you get these really sharp moves up,
10:18
Speaker 7: and then we look for Fibonacci retracements, just keeping it simple.
10:21
Speaker 7: A lot of times we look to the gold pocket,
10:23
Speaker 7: but more times than not, in a strong uptrend, you
10:27
Speaker 7: just come back to the three eight two, and then
10:29
Speaker 7: you get the continuation to whatever way we're going, that
10:32
Speaker 7: level comes in pretty much white. Right, We're right about
10:34
Speaker 7: where we're bouncing at right now, this nineteen thousand, five hundred,
10:37
Speaker 7: give or take. And to me, I've actually been looking
10:39
Speaker 7: at this region as a pretty big area to see
10:42
Speaker 7: the next bounce up. And I think that we're again
10:45
Speaker 7: looking in the sense of a short squeeze, which meaning
10:47
Speaker 7: there's so many people shorting this market, yet the price
10:50
Speaker 7: is not coming down. And then usually a market maker
10:52
Speaker 7: or a larger entity comes in and just pushes the
10:54
Speaker 7: price way higher. We get these sharp moves to the upside.
10:56
Speaker 7: So I'm actually anticipating a pretty big move to one
10:59
Speaker 7: to thirty US in the near future here more than
11:02
Speaker 7: likely from this region we're at right now.
11:04
Speaker 1: Well, and this gets into this whole thesis around risk
11:08
Speaker 1: versus and opportunity. Really at the same time, there was
11:12
Speaker 1: a clip that kind of explained this a little bit.
11:14
Speaker 1: Let me play it for you.
11:15
Speaker 8: Well, we're looking at the market in a couple of
11:17
Speaker 8: different ways that are frankly colliding in a way it
11:19
Speaker 8: makes us more concern about the action going forward to
11:23
Speaker 8: the next quarter or so. So we're looking at these
11:25
Speaker 8: markets as stretched between new all time housing made four
11:30
Speaker 8: new highs during a government shutdown where the fiscal problems
11:33
Speaker 8: are really thrown in our face on a daily basis,
11:37
Speaker 8: and also where goals making new hous and moving in
11:40
Speaker 8: a direction that looks parabolic at this moment, which is
11:43
Speaker 8: telling two totally different narratives of risk and optimism simultaneously,
11:47
Speaker 8: which makes us concern about the direction work form.
11:50
Speaker 1: All right, all right, so risk and opportunity playing out
11:54
Speaker 1: right here, Paul. Kind of to your point is that
11:58
Speaker 1: we're seeing this short which could be a little bit
12:01
Speaker 1: of a fake short squeeze people think and anticipating that
12:04
Speaker 1: this for your cycle is done. Your thesis is this
12:07
Speaker 1: is going to continue, possibly into twenty twenty six. I
12:10
Speaker 1: want to back that up for you, and then I
12:12
Speaker 1: want to go into that explanation because this is City
12:16
Speaker 1: Bank talking about bitcoin bullish for twenty twenty six.
12:20
Speaker 2: Take a look.
12:22
Speaker 1: Correct me if I'm wrong, but you're I think going
12:24
Speaker 1: into late twenty six, your forecast for bitcoin and ether
12:28
Speaker 1: are pretty good.
12:29
Speaker 2: Yes, not mine, but our teams. Yeah.
12:31
Speaker 3: So yeah, so we're looking for continued to follow through there.
12:33
Speaker 3: It kind of comes back to your discussion earlier on
12:36
Speaker 3: how to think about your alts in terms of gold
12:38
Speaker 3: and crypto, and you know, I think your commentary spot
12:43
Speaker 3: on there. I mean, I think we just have to
12:44
Speaker 3: allow that you have a very aggressive momentum driven equity market,
12:48
Speaker 3: and so I think people don't want to miss that.
12:51
Speaker 3: So you're looking for your hedging opportunity and the way
12:54
Speaker 3: we see it, in addition to central bank buying, as
12:57
Speaker 3: you mentioned, I think that those two asked class has
13:00
Speaker 3: become hedges of choice as you're trying to navigate this
13:03
Speaker 3: ongoing strength, highly value but momentum driven equity market.
13:08
Speaker 1: All right, so twenty twenty six driven through momentum most
13:12
Speaker 1: likely from the equity market. We also have, you know,
13:15
Speaker 1: this whole theory around the FED and how this plays
13:18
Speaker 1: out into May of next year. You and I had
13:20
Speaker 1: a chance to kind of touch on a theory that
13:23
Speaker 1: you've been working on last show, and I wanted to
13:26
Speaker 1: expand a little bit more because I think it's in
13:28
Speaker 1: alignment with what Citybank is kind of talking about right now.
13:31
Speaker 1: Can you explore that a little bit with me?
13:36
Speaker 7: Yeah, so you're talking about the twenty year housing market
13:38
Speaker 7: cycle essentially. Yeah, okay, Yeah, so a in a nutshell,
13:41
Speaker 7: and this has been really the backbone of my overall
13:44
Speaker 7: high time frame analysis for you know, going on almost
13:46
Speaker 7: ten years now. Basically when in twenty twelve, funny enough,
13:50
Speaker 7: I just I remember seeing this guy on a napkin
13:53
Speaker 7: on YouTube, back when YouTube felt like it was watching
13:55
Speaker 7: VHS movies, and this gentleman put on a napkin and
13:58
Speaker 7: basically drewout this you know, schimatic here and said that
14:01
Speaker 7: if you don't buy a home before twenty seventeen, the
14:03
Speaker 7: next best time wouldn't be until twenty thirty two. And
14:07
Speaker 7: it really stuck with me. I didn't really know, you know, technical,
14:09
Speaker 7: what he meant by it. Then I started following some
14:10
Speaker 7: of these eighteen to twenty year housing market cycles that
14:14
Speaker 7: I came across.
14:14
Speaker 2: It by a gentleman named Phil Anderson.
14:16
Speaker 7: So he's the original creator of this setup, not that
14:18
Speaker 7: I necessarily created it, but going off of the overall
14:21
Speaker 7: years here, and what I've done here is I've stacked
14:23
Speaker 7: up four iterations where this is the beginning year, this
14:26
Speaker 7: is the mid cycle slowdown that we always have an
14:29
Speaker 7: ending point before a face melting rally basically to the
14:32
Speaker 7: all time high blowof tops. Usually it's always met with
14:35
Speaker 7: high inflation, high interest rates, and everybody expecting a continued
14:37
Speaker 7: recession from this point. Just to have the overall high
14:41
Speaker 7: come in, and then we restart this cycle again. So
14:43
Speaker 7: in the fifties we started this seven to ten years
14:45
Speaker 7: go by. In the sixties we had the and also
14:48
Speaker 7: this has meant but with a black.
14:49
Speaker 2: Swan event right in the middle each and every time.
14:52
Speaker 7: So fifties you start, you come up to the sixties,
14:54
Speaker 7: you got the Cuban missile crisis.
14:55
Speaker 2: In that timeframe.
14:56
Speaker 7: A couple of years go by, high indrit rate, high inflation,
14:58
Speaker 7: everybody expects it to continue.
15:00
Speaker 2: We go up to the seventy two, we restart this again.
15:02
Speaker 7: In seventy five, we run up a blacksporan event at
15:05
Speaker 7: the time was Paul Volkner was the Fed share at
15:08
Speaker 7: the time, and he was going crazy with interest rates,
15:10
Speaker 7: and essentially that knocked everybody into the recession at that time,
15:13
Speaker 7: with like twenty percent interest rates. A couple years ago by,
15:15
Speaker 7: again nothing crazy, only a few I think it was
15:16
Speaker 7: actually only one full year of recession. But give or
15:19
Speaker 7: take in this window, high interest rates, high interest you know, inflation,
15:21
Speaker 7: everybody expected recession.
15:22
Speaker 2: Push this up.
15:23
Speaker 7: Now the next two iterations are interesting here because now
15:26
Speaker 7: we restart and you're in ninety three, he gets seven
15:28
Speaker 7: to ten years up.
15:28
Speaker 2: We have a couple of things.
15:29
Speaker 7: You know, you had mentioned the dot com bubble, We
15:31
Speaker 7: had nine to eleven also in this window, and same
15:33
Speaker 7: thing just two to three years by two thousand and
15:36
Speaker 7: three is when we kind of bottomed this out.
15:37
Speaker 2: We had high inflation, high interest rates. Everybody expected the
15:40
Speaker 2: recession to continue.
15:41
Speaker 7: What did we get the blowoff top to two thousand
15:43
Speaker 7: and seven, and again this is off of the housing market,
15:45
Speaker 7: but it really means, you know, the stock market and
15:48
Speaker 7: now the crypto market, and the crypto market has always
15:50
Speaker 7: been interesting to me is when it was born because
15:52
Speaker 7: it was born in the beginning of the last essentially
15:55
Speaker 7: this next rally seven to ten years up, what do
15:57
Speaker 7: we get COVID Right, everybody looks to COVID things that
16:00
Speaker 7: knocked something around in the charts, But realistically that was
16:03
Speaker 7: right on time for the Blackswan event that knocked us
16:06
Speaker 7: into a two to four year timeframe end of twenty
16:08
Speaker 7: twenty three. Where were we Everybody expected a recession to
16:11
Speaker 7: continue in twenty twenty four, high inflation, high interest rates, right,
16:14
Speaker 7: and then what have we seen ever since then? Nothing
16:16
Speaker 7: but all time highs across the board. So my target area,
16:20
Speaker 7: which is wide I understand does come in at twenty
16:22
Speaker 7: twenty six to twenty twenty nine if I'm with for.
16:25
Speaker 2: The next high.
16:26
Speaker 7: Realistically, I'm leaning heavily on twenty twenty seven to be
16:29
Speaker 7: the high, which means that twenty twenty six could still
16:31
Speaker 7: very well be another year where we see just consistent
16:34
Speaker 7: There's gonna be pullbacks, of course, but more consistent up
16:37
Speaker 7: in gold, silver, all the indices, Bitcoin, crypto. It's just
16:42
Speaker 7: one of those things that's just not stopping I think
16:44
Speaker 7: until that timeframe.
16:45
Speaker 1: Yeah, and it's very interesting because you look at the
16:50
Speaker 1: the process in which these all line up almost in unison.
16:55
Speaker 1: Why the wide range though between twenty twenty six and
16:58
Speaker 1: twenty twenty nine versus some of the other years where
17:01
Speaker 1: we've we've seen those a little bit tighter.
17:04
Speaker 7: So just personally, I guess it's been eighteen to twenty
17:06
Speaker 7: years has been the average, so.
17:08
Speaker 2: It's it's obviously a wide average as it is.
17:10
Speaker 7: So for me, it's just one of those things where
17:11
Speaker 7: I'm just mentally prepared for twenty twenty six through twenty
17:15
Speaker 7: twenty nine. It's probably not the time where I'm going
17:16
Speaker 7: to be deploying brand new capital into a long.
17:19
Speaker 2: Term investment strategy.
17:20
Speaker 7: That's where I'm gonna be looking to scale out heavily
17:22
Speaker 7: from everything I've put in. So I present that idea
17:24
Speaker 7: with the you know in the case that yes, twenty
17:26
Speaker 7: twenty six still could be that last little burst or
17:29
Speaker 7: even into twenty twenty seven, but it's not probably the
17:31
Speaker 7: best time when looking you know, through history, to.
17:34
Speaker 2: Be deploying new long term capital.
17:36
Speaker 7: So again it's just it's it's a tough one to
17:39
Speaker 7: kind of lay out, you know, with the wide range
17:42
Speaker 7: like that, So just get a little safety net. But
17:43
Speaker 7: like I said, I'm leaning more towards twenty twenty seven
17:45
Speaker 7: into twenty twenty nine really, and twenty twenty nine is
17:47
Speaker 7: one hundred years sycle with anniversary of the Great Depression.
17:50
Speaker 7: I think that between the two of those timeframes that
17:52
Speaker 7: was very well going to get a huge market collapse.
17:55
Speaker 1: So when you look at bitcoin as it is right now,
17:58
Speaker 1: Paul would have, first of all, I want to ask
18:01
Speaker 1: you this, how would you cycle out of that market
18:05
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six If bitcoin does an all time
18:07
Speaker 1: high here and it does get a blow off top
18:09
Speaker 1: near one p fifty or one eighty, like some people
18:12
Speaker 1: are talking to those cities talking about over two hundred k.
18:15
Speaker 2: How would you cycle out?
18:16
Speaker 1: I mean, if you are in those kinds of assets, gold, silver, bitcoin,
18:21
Speaker 1: all coins, where would you go?
18:24
Speaker 2: Real Estate's that.
18:26
Speaker 1: Gonna be at a drop in the I mean we're
18:28
Speaker 1: going to see all sorts of carnage there as well.
18:31
Speaker 7: Right, so real really quickly here so to put a
18:36
Speaker 7: big picture on it.
18:37
Speaker 2: My answer actually would be bitcoin.
18:39
Speaker 7: And the reasoning behind that is this is that I
18:42
Speaker 7: think the bitcoin and I don't have the chart on
18:44
Speaker 7: me right now, but because I have to pull that
18:46
Speaker 7: up on a different side, we could do this on
18:47
Speaker 7: another day, would be fine, But if you correlate and
18:49
Speaker 7: I'll go back to me real quick.
18:50
Speaker 2: Sorry, if you correlate.
18:53
Speaker 7: How again, if you look at that twenty year cycle theory,
18:55
Speaker 7: and maybe we're coming to a peak at twenty twenty seven,
18:58
Speaker 7: twenty twenty eight, it's interesting when I compare gold and
19:01
Speaker 7: bitcoin because twenty years before that, our last you know,
19:04
Speaker 7: major high came in two thousand and eight, technically twenty
19:07
Speaker 7: twenty seven or two thousand and seven. Sorry, And when
19:10
Speaker 7: did gold get its ETF the only one asset in
19:12
Speaker 7: this world?
19:13
Speaker 2: We can compare bitcoin too?
19:14
Speaker 7: Gold got its ETF in November of two thousand and four,
19:16
Speaker 7: three years before the high, four years before two thousand
19:19
Speaker 7: and eight. When did fast forward, now, when did bitcoin
19:21
Speaker 7: receive its ETF We got it in twenty twenty four,
19:23
Speaker 7: potentially three to four years, right before this next global collapse,
19:27
Speaker 7: and if we look back, the one asset that held through,
19:30
Speaker 7: we got to pull back.
19:31
Speaker 2: Don't get me wrong.
19:31
Speaker 7: When the initial two thousand and eight drop came, I
19:33
Speaker 7: think gold pulled back twenty percent, but from there double
19:37
Speaker 7: dates market cap between that in twenty twelve, so I
19:39
Speaker 7: foresee the same setup for bitcoin to occur. So to me,
19:44
Speaker 7: buying bitcoin on any major pullback is the is the play.
19:48
Speaker 7: And in my scaling out schematic here, so it's as
19:51
Speaker 7: things come into major profits, I'm pulling that out in
19:53
Speaker 7: the green days, leaving it in cash or whatever until
19:56
Speaker 7: big red days, and then I transferred over to bitcoin
19:59
Speaker 7: or etheroryum, you know, something along that line. But bitcoin
20:01
Speaker 7: is kind of the big play, and what I just
20:04
Speaker 7: want to be you know clear here too. I know
20:06
Speaker 7: that that sounds like it's like, oh, Bitcoin's just going
20:08
Speaker 7: to go up from here. So I again, this is
20:11
Speaker 7: one of the biggest setups that I've been tracking for years.
20:14
Speaker 7: This goes all the way back from twenty eighteen. This
20:17
Speaker 7: takes us to our our you know FTX low and
20:21
Speaker 7: while we were trading in this region, I timed out
20:23
Speaker 7: both that this was going to be the gold pocket
20:25
Speaker 7: and time. So just like we can look at Fibonacci
20:28
Speaker 7: or tracements for price action to you know, reverse to
20:31
Speaker 7: or to drop down to, you can actually extrapolate time
20:34
Speaker 7: Fibonacci's where you're going to see pivots in the market,
20:36
Speaker 7: and off of the last few moves here, this was
20:38
Speaker 7: actually where we would get the next leg higher that
20:41
Speaker 7: would come in, and that was last September. We have
20:42
Speaker 7: gotten that last leg higher here. The target zone of
20:45
Speaker 7: this is one twenty two, one hundred and twenty two
20:47
Speaker 7: thousand to one hundred and forty and gave a little
20:50
Speaker 7: wiggle room for a little blow off tops scenario, but
20:51
Speaker 7: I don't think we're going to see that. And for
20:54
Speaker 7: this setup here, it's already valid technically, so we could
20:57
Speaker 7: be at a high right, everybody could be right in
20:59
Speaker 7: the bear markets about the start. I find it hard
21:01
Speaker 7: to believe that we would be, but it is, it
21:03
Speaker 7: is there in my thought here I think we actually
21:05
Speaker 7: push up just a bit higher again, that short squeeze
21:08
Speaker 7: locally that pushes.
21:09
Speaker 2: Us to like one thirty one thirties.
21:11
Speaker 7: I think one thirty to one thirty five is probably
21:13
Speaker 7: that sweet spot that would make everybody target one fifty
21:16
Speaker 7: at that point would catch everybody off guard because now
21:18
Speaker 7: you got this whole October sixth date that Okay, whatever
21:22
Speaker 7: picturing we push up, this setup right here has a
21:25
Speaker 7: target zone back towards about uh I'd say the eighties nineties, K.
21:29
Speaker 7: But I realistically, I think we come back for this
21:32
Speaker 7: U Tara flow. That's that's my biggest like play is
21:35
Speaker 7: that around this region we pull back to like seventy
21:37
Speaker 7: four ish maybe in the next couple months here beginning
21:40
Speaker 7: of twenty twenty six, and then that's our next major
21:42
Speaker 7: opportunity for the next sling shot for bitcoin to continue
21:46
Speaker 7: up through twenty twenty six and twenty twenty seven and
21:49
Speaker 7: really seeing those really big, you know, pieces that come
21:51
Speaker 7: out of it. And I think that I can see
21:52
Speaker 7: two three hundred thousand dollars down the road.
21:55
Speaker 1: Interesting, all right, So that's that is a big thesis
21:59
Speaker 1: there to follow along here, We're going to have you
22:01
Speaker 1: kind of trace this out as we go through the
22:05
Speaker 1: end of this year and into early next year. If
22:08
Speaker 1: you're right, Paul, it'll be a big call, you know
22:10
Speaker 1: on this one for sure.
22:12
Speaker 2: Yeah, let's talk about Solana.
22:14
Speaker 1: And Solana has big news here a bit. Why is
22:16
Speaker 1: of course announced their fees and the fee was crazy
22:20
Speaker 1: because this right here would put Solana in the front
22:24
Speaker 1: of the ETF pack with one of the lowest fees
22:26
Speaker 1: out there. This could really create a lot of activity
22:29
Speaker 1: on the ETF launch for Solona. What would this do
22:32
Speaker 1: to the overall soul chart? Do you think from where
22:35
Speaker 1: Solana is trading right now?
22:39
Speaker 7: So honestly, nothing has changed for me from Solana from
22:42
Speaker 7: even like the last time we were discussing it. It's
22:45
Speaker 7: still holding a really nice kind of a larger high
22:47
Speaker 7: time frame pattern here. And this was called a bullish shark,
22:52
Speaker 7: which is we covered this last time, just kind of
22:53
Speaker 7: you know, set up of a sequence of Vibonaci. He's
22:55
Speaker 7: got set list of rules and ratios. Anyhow, the major
22:58
Speaker 7: targets of this overall is your point five Fibonacci retracement.
23:02
Speaker 7: We came up to that obviously back in July. And
23:04
Speaker 7: as soon as you flip that though, and as long
23:06
Speaker 7: as you're holding it, so one ninety six. As long
23:08
Speaker 7: as we're above one hundred and ninety six dollars, I
23:10
Speaker 7: fully anticipate this to reach two seventy four and ultimately
23:14
Speaker 7: three twenty three in the near term here. So if
23:17
Speaker 7: something alike along those lines kind of comes out, some
23:19
Speaker 7: news breaks and we get you know, some of these
23:21
Speaker 7: bigger volume spikes and some of these fees that are
23:23
Speaker 7: kind of inducing or whatever the case occurs, I think
23:26
Speaker 7: that'll be probably what pushes it up. But as far
23:28
Speaker 7: as the technical setup goes, as long as we're above
23:29
Speaker 7: one ninety six, I fully anticipate two seventy four and
23:32
Speaker 7: three twenty three.
23:33
Speaker 1: Yeah, and let's not forget guys, the end of this
23:35
Speaker 1: year is when Solana does all these events, including breakpoint,
23:40
Speaker 1: which usually starts to launch, and there's always like a
23:42
Speaker 1: fever that occurs around that because there's big announcements. This
23:46
Speaker 1: may be one of the biggest years yet because of
23:49
Speaker 1: the timing. Last time we've seen these, it's when Marcus
23:53
Speaker 1: have been low. We've seen Solana down, you know, considerably.
23:56
Speaker 1: I mean, if you all the way back to like
23:58
Speaker 1: the eight dollars Salona post FDAC versus where it is
24:01
Speaker 1: Can you imagine that holding in an eight dollars Salana.
24:05
Speaker 7: I know, I know that was a wild time, kind
24:09
Speaker 7: of crazy.
24:10
Speaker 1: Speaking of other opportunities, we got to get into sweet network.
24:13
Speaker 1: I want to play a clip for you because this
24:14
Speaker 1: is big news coming in from Sui and how this
24:18
Speaker 1: may play out on the charts is what I want
24:20
Speaker 1: to get your opinion on. But let's go to this clip.
24:24
Speaker 6: We're excited to share that E Frontier will be built
24:27
Speaker 6: on Suite. We've already started to migration work behind the scenes,
24:30
Speaker 6: and the fuel changeover is planned for twenty twenty six.
24:34
Speaker 6: That's when smart assemblies will move over to Swede and
24:36
Speaker 6: be written and move sweeze smart contract language.
24:41
Speaker 1: All right, So this is, if you guys know, Eve,
24:44
Speaker 1: one of the one of the bigger games out there,
24:45
Speaker 1: and it is more of a kind of a forever
24:47
Speaker 1: game that is now being built on Sewi network, which
24:50
Speaker 1: really starts to move Sui into a next level and
24:54
Speaker 1: maybe even in competition with Avalanche. If you look at
24:57
Speaker 1: the suiy chart right now, Paul, where would you you
25:00
Speaker 1: play Suie on the near term similar to what Solana
25:03
Speaker 1: is doing.
25:06
Speaker 7: Yeah, so sue has I could pull up a couple
25:08
Speaker 7: of like things on it that would be a little overkill,
25:11
Speaker 7: but I've really I'm just keeping it pretty simple with
25:13
Speaker 7: this one. I mean, you've got just a really nice
25:15
Speaker 7: and this is just simple you know, trend line consolidation here.
25:17
Speaker 7: But again it's in confluence with other things that I
25:20
Speaker 7: look at, so it's just a really simple version to
25:21
Speaker 7: put it. We're pretty much, you know, coming to a
25:24
Speaker 7: place where most likely we're going to see a decent
25:26
Speaker 7: little move here, and you know, alongside some of that
25:29
Speaker 7: that they were just speaking on, we get the breakout here.
25:31
Speaker 7: I'm looking for a couple of major areas easier, you know,
25:34
Speaker 7: not as attractive obviously, it's just a little pushback to
25:36
Speaker 7: the highs, but there's some volume levels that come in there.
25:39
Speaker 7: It's a trend base projected gold pocket. But the one
25:42
Speaker 7: that really interests me is up here at six sixty
25:44
Speaker 7: and then ultimately nine sixty three, which is just below
25:47
Speaker 7: ten dollars. But that's where I can see Sue getting
25:50
Speaker 7: to in a you know, relatively near future as well,
25:53
Speaker 7: assuming that again you know, all coins kind of pick
25:55
Speaker 7: up here, we get that short squeeze out a bitcoin,
25:57
Speaker 7: Soalana pushes up to three twenty three.
25:59
Speaker 2: That's where I'm looking at on sue There you go.
26:01
Speaker 4: I like it.
26:02
Speaker 1: That's still almost a three x there with suite. Let's
26:05
Speaker 1: jump over to XRP real quick. Animalka Brands is now
26:09
Speaker 1: through a limited partnership, launching a managed fund over there
26:13
Speaker 1: that's getting into token I special purpose vehicles. This will
26:16
Speaker 1: all be done through the XRP ledger. So this was
26:19
Speaker 1: announced and if you look at some of the companies
26:22
Speaker 1: that are involved in this, and granted it's a small
26:25
Speaker 1: amount right now, but Anamoca has maybe identified some potential
26:29
Speaker 1: opportunities here around tokenizing on the in terms of RBA
26:33
Speaker 1: within the XRPL. What would this do to this along
26:37
Speaker 1: with other news When you look at XRP as a
26:40
Speaker 1: token right now, how would you trade this one today?
26:44
Speaker 1: Because it has been under three dollars again after it's
26:48
Speaker 1: really struggled around this three dollar mark.
26:50
Speaker 2: What do you think?
26:52
Speaker 7: So, I an unpopular opinion is that I really enjoy
26:57
Speaker 7: XRP as far as the trading wise goes in the
26:59
Speaker 7: way that it move. I know that it has these
27:01
Speaker 7: really long periods of accumulation, but you know, sadly, looking
27:04
Speaker 7: at the whole market, XRPI performed most of the entire
27:07
Speaker 7: market this time around, at least right since at least
27:10
Speaker 7: last year. We got that nice burst from the fifty
27:12
Speaker 7: cent range in basically one month in November of twenty
27:16
Speaker 7: twenty four until like December twenty twenty five, give us
27:18
Speaker 7: like a six hundred percent rally.
27:20
Speaker 2: And usually what happens when you get this is that
27:22
Speaker 2: you just give it all right back up.
27:23
Speaker 7: So so far you're actually holding it really nicely, which
27:26
Speaker 7: is a good sign. I mean, that's what you want
27:28
Speaker 7: to see, especially from an asset that was compressed for
27:31
Speaker 7: you know, so long here and currently just looking at
27:34
Speaker 7: some more local areas here, we're just ranging, which of
27:37
Speaker 7: course bores people like you just mentioned, like it's below
27:39
Speaker 7: three dollars again, it stresses people out, It frustrates you.
27:42
Speaker 7: It's really frustrating if you had just bought it, because
27:45
Speaker 7: unfortunately most people didn't purchase at fifty cents. They're probably
27:48
Speaker 7: buying it along this you know, crazy move because it
27:50
Speaker 7: just seems like it wouldn't stop, and then the music
27:52
Speaker 7: finally stops, right we cansolidate for a bit. We're ranging
27:55
Speaker 7: now for me, I you know, I just got to
27:57
Speaker 7: point out it's just you're sitting at support.
27:59
Speaker 2: We've come down to this region several times here.
28:01
Speaker 7: I would be prepared for us to actually sweep it,
28:04
Speaker 7: which is, you know, just a simple liquidity grab at
28:06
Speaker 7: this point, because we've come down and left them all
28:08
Speaker 7: so far and we're pretty close to it. But aside
28:11
Speaker 7: from that, we're at the lows regardless of this side,
28:13
Speaker 7: a little barring, a little move to like two sixties
28:16
Speaker 7: again is definitely on the table. But ultimately I do
28:19
Speaker 7: imagine we actually get a push up from here. And
28:21
Speaker 7: my target for XRP has remained four dollars and fifty cents.
28:24
Speaker 7: This is a trend based one to one as far
28:26
Speaker 7: as just strapulating again one hundred percent move out of this.
28:30
Speaker 7: There's a potential harmonic that completes up in that region
28:33
Speaker 7: as well, which is bearish when it completes, but we'll
28:35
Speaker 7: get to that at another date. And also, I like
28:37
Speaker 7: four to fifty because it front runs five dollars, which
28:40
Speaker 7: is probably going to be a super psychological barrier that
28:43
Speaker 7: if we get a big move out of XRP, everybody's
28:45
Speaker 7: going to at least target five dollars minimum, And so
28:48
Speaker 7: for me, there's a lot of things that line up
28:50
Speaker 7: just for a front run of that, and then if
28:51
Speaker 7: we were to get to that, that's going to offer
28:53
Speaker 7: up like a fifty percent pullback from there. So it's
28:55
Speaker 7: just just something to kind of have in your mindset there.
28:58
Speaker 7: But that's for me, that's how I trade at the moment.
29:00
Speaker 7: You know, potentially we could dip a little bit lower
29:02
Speaker 7: again towards these low areas, but looking to rotate out
29:05
Speaker 7: of this range and then break up towards about four
29:07
Speaker 7: fifty before we really hit our head again for a
29:09
Speaker 7: sizeable correction in sideways again.
29:12
Speaker 1: Yeah, this would be a good trade if you're if
29:14
Speaker 1: you wait for a little bit more of a downward
29:16
Speaker 1: if we get a big red day, I think that
29:18
Speaker 1: might be an opportunity there. Let's talk about ETH and
29:21
Speaker 1: bitcoin because basically on your thesis for twenty twenty six,
29:27
Speaker 1: and you look at where bitcoin it is right now,
29:29
Speaker 1: would you exit bitcoin right now and move it into eth?
29:33
Speaker 1: Would that be a play you would do?
29:37
Speaker 7: What would be the time for like, what would be
29:38
Speaker 7: the time frame? Is this just moving over into ethan
29:41
Speaker 7: just sitting for the rest end of.
29:42
Speaker 2: The year through through end of year, Yes, yeah, okay,
29:47
Speaker 2: I would.
29:48
Speaker 7: Say I would say that Bitcoin probably hits like one
29:50
Speaker 7: hundred and thirty one hundred and thirty five, and then
29:53
Speaker 7: Eth pushes up to like at least five to seven
29:56
Speaker 7: in the for the end of the year before the
29:57
Speaker 7: next rollover, I guess what I do wise targeting.
30:01
Speaker 1: Eth as your winner for performance wise through the end
30:03
Speaker 1: of the year. All right, let's let's transition that and
30:06
Speaker 1: going back to your thesis of Bitcoin getting a huge
30:09
Speaker 1: correction down into say seventy to eighty k where would
30:13
Speaker 1: ethereum be during that time?
30:17
Speaker 7: So this is essentially what I've been looking at for
30:19
Speaker 7: Eth for quite a while. Here is this mage again
30:23
Speaker 7: high timeframe as you can get. This is a weekly timeframe.
30:26
Speaker 7: This is something that obviously we've been building out since
30:29
Speaker 7: twenty twenty one, and it is obviously predicated on us
30:33
Speaker 7: pushing through this all time high once and for all.
30:35
Speaker 2: But ultimately there's a little you know, stair step in
30:37
Speaker 2: our way around five thousand dollars.
30:39
Speaker 7: But if we were to really get the gas here
30:40
Speaker 7: in the next few weeks and we pushed it up
30:42
Speaker 7: to this main target area about six thousand dollars, the
30:46
Speaker 7: pullback on Bitcoin that you know, we go back to
30:49
Speaker 7: the seventies, eighties, nineties would probably take us back down
30:51
Speaker 7: as well into the four thousand dollars range to thirty
30:54
Speaker 7: five hundred. So I think we discussed that last time,
30:56
Speaker 7: like thirty three hundred to thirty five hundred, I think
30:59
Speaker 7: is really the next best opportunity on ethereum, assuming we.
31:03
Speaker 2: Push up higher first, right, So yeah, that's kind of where.
31:07
Speaker 1: My yeah, and I think, you know, if you consider
31:09
Speaker 1: it right now, a lot of people are still trying
31:10
Speaker 1: to figure out are they going to get into ETH
31:13
Speaker 1: right now with these kinds of numbers. I mean that's
31:15
Speaker 1: the monthly right there. ETH has been just performing like
31:18
Speaker 1: crazy overall, even if you go back to just the
31:21
Speaker 1: performance since tariff Day, continued to be up and though
31:26
Speaker 1: it's somewhat trading sideways at forty three hundred right now,
31:28
Speaker 1: which is a little bit lackluster, but still trying to
31:32
Speaker 1: press an all time high. All right, Paul, this has
31:35
Speaker 1: been good. We're going to continue to run some stuff
31:38
Speaker 1: at you through the end of the year, taking a
31:41
Speaker 1: little a look at a lot of activity because there's
31:43
Speaker 1: gonna be this is gonna be a busy next three months.
31:46
Speaker 1: So thanks for coming here today. We appreciate it my pleasure, Paul,
31:50
Speaker 1: have a great one, but are you? Guys, make sure
31:52
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Speaker 1: Yep ready all right, guys, make sure and jump in
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