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NFL Week 8 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. Today is our
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: week eight Tuesday NFL episode. I am Chad Millman, Chief
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Content Officer of the Action Network. We are coming off
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: of a four and one week in our contest, including
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: two of our biggest bets of the year in the
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: Ravens as short home dogs over the Lions and the
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Eagles as short home dogs over the Miami Dolphins. We
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: are professionals. We don't dwell too long on the success.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: We don't count our cash. As Mike Tomlin would.
• 0:49
  Speaker 2: Say, last week was last week, this week was this week.
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: Next week we'll be next week.
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: And that starts with our recording of our Sunday episode
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: before Sunday Night Football. And as we said on that show,
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: a lot of lines we liked have already moved, which
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: is why you need to listen to the Sunday show
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: if you want to get the best of the number.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Today we will get to our Simon says in our
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: exec decision. This episode will look at the entire board
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: as we begin narrowing down the five picks we'll enter
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: in the Favorites Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest still open for sign ups, still free
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: to play, still awarding weekly and season long cash prizes
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: at Favorites dot actionnetwork dot com. Now let's bring in
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: my co host, might BFF, my companion, my compadre professional
• 1:35
  Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter. Simon, Yesterday, Matt Mitchell told me that
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: we are currently in the top five percent of our
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: twelve thousand person contest. I know, I said, we don't
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: count our cast during the season. I gotta tell you,
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I do feel so much better on Mondays when we
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: have won and are not shamed in front of our
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: listeners and viewers. I want to win for them. But
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: I'm also I need to remind everybody it doesn't matter
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: where you are in the leaderboard right now. The contest
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: leaderboard will get shaken up when everyone's two lowest scoring
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: weeks are dropped after week twelve. That's after Thanksgiving. That's
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: when you know if you still are in this thing
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: or not. But Simon, still, it's nice to be winning
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: rather than losing.
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: Yeah, nice start, Brother. Twenty two and thirteen, the Eagles
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: came through. They're the one seats, so I'm feel pretty
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: good about that. Putin might be dead. That's pretty exciting.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: You might have got Putin finally. And yeah, Game seven
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: World serious tonight, Chad like it. There's a lot going
• 2:46
  Speaker 2: on right now in your boys' life. So for pretty
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: exciting times right now.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Game seven of the Phillies tonight. We have the start
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: of the NBA season tonight. The number one guy in
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: the contest right now has twenty eight wins. We have
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: twenty two wins, so we are six wins six games
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: behind right now. But by the way, it's top two
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: percent of the entire contest, top five percent of active
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: weekly participants. As a reminder, the contest and the podcast
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: is presented by bet three sixty five. Bet three sixty
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  Speaker 1: five doesn't do ordinary. That's why you get more boosts
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  Speaker 1: bet three six five must be twenty one or older
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  Speaker 1: and present in Colorado, Iowa, New Jersey, Ohio, or Virginia,
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  Speaker 1: or eighteen year older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler one eight hundred bets off in Iowa. Terms,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: conditions and restrictions apply. As a reminder, catch every episode
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: of the Favorites live on YouTube, So for those enjoying
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: on YouTube, don't forget to give us a like and
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: subscribe to the Action Network YouTube page. Here's our week
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: seven roundup. We had two one hundred and one entries
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: finish five and oh a two way tie for first place.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Congrats to our winners Chris Thile's and MNSD forty two.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer Couple Word goes to Claudio Gotts for
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: finishing dead fucking last and the Week seven contest going
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: zero to five and missing the tiebreaker by four hundred yards. Claudio,
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: please email our producer Matt Mitchell at podcast at Actionnetwork
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: dot com to claim your non cash prize. Thanks for playing.
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: Wee cave it. The contest is live. The Monday Night
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Football tiebreaker is total passing yards on Monday Night Football.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Good luck everybody, all right, quick futures update Justin Herbert
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: twenty five to one. That ticket is dead, as Simon
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: to say, Tyreek Hill to lead the league in receiving
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: yards nine to one. He is all alone in first
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: place by nearly one hundred yards. Jalen Carter dominating performance
• 5:08
  Speaker 1: against Miami. He was blowing the middle of that offensive
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: lineup from the very first play. Got him at seventy
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: to one. Still minus money to win DROI Josh Allen
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: to win MVP at ten to one. It's gonna be
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: a tough sled Christian McCaffrey to win MVP fifteen to one.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Gonna be tough. Week eate my friend, week eate box
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: at Buffalo Bills Thursday Night Football. My very first instinct
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: on this Simon Bill's bounced back spot in which Josh
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Allen tends to cover when he wins. When he wins
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: at homes homely covers. I'm very worried about this defense.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: Matt Mlano, Dakwan Jones, Tredevius White. All out impact was
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: obvious against the Jags, obvious against the Pats this week,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: giving up on Mac Jones' game winning touchdown at the end.
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: These guys are all out for the season basically, and
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: you're miss and playmakers at every level of defense. So
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: I don't even know how to handicap this team right
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: now because they are so different without these guys.
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, nightmare scenario for Bills fans, the Bill's team. It's
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: just some years it breaks your way, in some years
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: it doesn't. And this clearly is not breaking the Bill's way.
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: So I'm not, honestly don't hate our Josh Allen MVP
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: bet just because he'll have to be the MVP for
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: them to make the playoffs like this, it's truly all
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: on him now, like he's always going to to be
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: highly competitive, so you know, gut instincts, I'm gonna probably
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: take Tampa. But we say it every week. You just
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: just bet prime time unders. I have to beg you
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: people to do it. I know it doesn't feel natural. Evan.
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: We go to one last week, I feel like I
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: won money last week. I'm pretty sure it too. And one.
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: So yeah, Thursday, we got blown the hell out, that
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: went way over, stayed under, Sunday Night stayed under. Thank
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: you to Swift. I believe Swift fell down so they
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: didn't get the touchdown there or maybe the Eagles just
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: kneeled it. Then last night, you know, weird things happened.
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: We got the under again. Yeah, Evan just put our chat.
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: It's sixteen and seven this season primetime unders. So if
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: you're like me and Chad and you're not like feeling
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: too confident about taking either side, just go under, just
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: take the smart bet. But Tampa feels like they're the
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: play here. It's like, who are the Bills to be
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: getting this many points? I just said to all the
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: reasons why this is not the same team as they
• 7:22
  Speaker 2: had been in the past. So yes, Josh Allen, with
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: the good defenses, use the steamroll teams. I mean, they're
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: just not the same defense they've had these past couple
• 7:31
  Speaker 2: of seasons. So clearly the biggest weakness is coming into
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: the season for the Bills team was the offensive line,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: and they were really top heavy on defense. They had
• 7:40
  Speaker 2: a lot of stars and scrubs. They've lost those stars.
• 7:43
  Speaker 2: So yeah, tough tough times for Bills fans. They still
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: might better win that division with Miami battling Miami for
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  Speaker 2: that division, but then being the number one, number two
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  Speaker 2: seed in the AFC. That's gone now with these injuries
• 7:55
  Speaker 2: and the way they've been playing this year, So yeah,
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  Speaker 2: Tampa plus eight and a half. Luckily me and Chad
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  Speaker 2: can't put this in the contest. I don't think we
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: would anyway.
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  Speaker 3: No.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, look, you're right about the AFC. Right now,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: they are behind the Chiefs and Miami with the longest
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl odds or the shortest of the contenders, the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: longest of the contenders in for the Super Bowl. I
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: want to talk about the Rams and Dallas. Rams visiting
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  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboys six and a half point favorites at bet
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: three six five. Right now, the line moved from six
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  Speaker 1: to six and a half to seven back down to
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  Speaker 1: six and a half. Dallas is off of a bye.
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  Speaker 1: Dallas leads the league in pressure rate. The Rams O
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: line is bottom ten, and in the second half against
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: Pittsburgh they couldn't move the ball because the o line
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: was terrible. We hated the Cowboys. I don't think Mike
• 8:52
  Speaker 1: McCarthy is a very good coach, very good play caller.
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  Speaker 1: Dak in this spot thirty one and seven straight up
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  Speaker 1: as a six or more fave, twenty six to eleven
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  Speaker 1: and one against the spread. At home, he is twenty
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  Speaker 1: one and four straight up sixteen eight to one against
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  Speaker 1: the spread.
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  Speaker 2: God damn uh Simon.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: Dallas is the play.
• 9:19
  Speaker 2: Probably are but I already threw someone rams at seven.
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: I mean that just got that was way too high
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: when it went up to seven six six fields right,
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  Speaker 2: So technically I would still say the value is on
• 9:28
  Speaker 2: the rams. But you're right, like, how is Stafford Goanna
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: have time to get the ball out? Just just a
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: bad scenario. But the positives to me is I mean
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: that offense is bad in the Cowboys Chad. I mean,
• 9:43
  Speaker 2: think about that Charters team, how suspect that defense is
• 9:46
  Speaker 2: and they they probably should have beat They probably should
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: have beat this Dallas team. Like Dallas just seems like
• 9:52
  Speaker 2: they play to level their competition this year. And you know,
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: their only good win this year was beating that Jet
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: team after such an emotional win the Jets had in
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: Week one. Like I kind of you know, I got
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: a lot of questions about this Dallas team, no question
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: about their defense. Just said their defense is for real,
• 10:10
  Speaker 2: Like that pass rush is really good, but they still
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: are down digs on that defense. To me, that's a
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: big deal. I know Gilmore's played well for them, but
• 10:19
  Speaker 2: you're going up against the best one two receiver in
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: the league. I mean, Eagles DeVante Smith ag are incredible.
• 10:25
  Speaker 2: Hookah's out of this world like Pooka with Cooper Kupp
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: It's it really is insane. I know a lot of
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: it is a due with Stafford. Stafford is that good?
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: But yeah, it's seven, Chad. This is a no brain
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: on the Rams. But you're right. If it goes down
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: to six again, I could probably be talked into the Cowboys,
• 10:42
  Speaker 2: but yeah, we're probably gonna disagree on this one.
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: Simon. I'm making the Cowboys my exec decision this week.
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: I just did that.
• 10:50
  Speaker 2: The choice between the unthinkable and the impossible.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: Are you your honors?
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Executive decision is out a character.
• 11:01
  Speaker 1: Yay, I'll tell you why it is out of character.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: But here's why. I have historically had a bias against
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: Dak and Mike McCarthy as favorites generally because I thought
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: they underperformed. But then I started thinking about it. They
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: performed very well at home and that's when I asked
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Evan to look these numbers up because we talked about
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: this earlier in the year too. The Cowboys perform well
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: at home as big favorites.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: Quick pause mean Chad mean Chad been knocked out of
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: two Survivor contests the past two years, both on Dallas
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: as home favorites. Just so people are aware that Chad
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: does not remember this two times two years in a row.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: Don't remember it at all. The die has been cast.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Dallas Cowboy. I got him at six. I got the
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: Cowboys at minus six. I think them coming off of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: bye with that defense against a terrible rams O line
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: and an opportunity to get right at home, Dallas Cowboys.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: You're growing off the deep end. This is this is
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: off brand Chat. There's a lot of on brand Chad
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: games this week. I don't know why you're picking this one.
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I just been honestly, like, I started
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: doing some research yesterday and I started feeling really good
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: about it, and I'm like.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: Go do more research, go back, go back to the
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: drawing board. Just put this one on the side for now.
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: This is not This is not very Chad, Like. I
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: don't know what's happening right now. This is old Chad.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: This is like five years ago Chad. This is not Chad.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: I knew you, yeah, all right.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: Minnesota at green Bay. Green Bay is a two and
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite. Look this one opened as green
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Bay plus one, moved up to two and a half
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: one warning teams that opened as a dog and moved
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: to a favorite since twenty nineteen forty two eighty one
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: against the spread that includes Green Bay. This week we'll
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: get to a couple of other games as well. I
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: don't have a strong feeling on this after last night.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: I wanted to feel better about Minnesota because Kirk Cousins
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: continues to play out of his mind, and at least
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: last night they didn't have the same turnover luck. Maybe
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: there's some turnover luck regression coming to coming their way,
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: but I think they also got lucky by some some
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: pretty bad decision making defensively by the Niners and some
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: turnovers by the Niners. So it's hard for me to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: to feel strongly about this game.
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: Easy, easy bet green Bay. There's no There's no choice here, people,
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: You just Kirk just had the game of his life
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: and all the bounces went his way like that. That
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: touchdown then a half like that was I mean, you
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: can't get more luck lucky than that. So I don't
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: know what the luck rankings are yet. It's only Tuesday,
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: but Green Bay is gonna high up on our luck rankings.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: So I'll get to the luck buddy, I'll get to
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: the luck rankings. We got one game and it's it's
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: a doozy.
• 13:49
  Speaker 2: So maybe my thirsd I'll get checking around. But yeah,
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: this is a this is a spot player. You're taking
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Green Bay here. They look dead. They just also the
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: worst team in football on Denver Minnesota had the game
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: of their life completely destroyed what people perceived the best
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: team in football, the forty nine ers. This line is
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: a pick minus one green Bay. The books are going
• 14:08
  Speaker 2: to get so much Minnesota money here that I'm hoping
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: this flips back to a dog for green Bay, like
• 14:13
  Speaker 2: that would be amazing. We get plus one and a half.
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: So now making this, Simon says, you don't have to
• 14:17
  Speaker 2: grab this right now. You can wait on this. But
• 14:19
  Speaker 2: this there's like a ninety percent chance. This is what
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: I'm me and Chat's five. This is just this is
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: what this show does. We just the definition of buying low.
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: This is a Bilo spot for Green Bay.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: The numbers move from one to two and a half.
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: It's not at minus one or pick right now.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: I mean I'm looking at a book right now, live
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: it's minus one Green Bay.
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: Right, okay, well I'm looking at that three six five,
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: so there it could just be bouncing around all over
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: the place right now.
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: Now it's plus one green Bay.
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Come on, well does that does that mean you want
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: to make it?
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: As Simon says, no, because I'm just the public should
• 14:58
  Speaker 2: hammer is going to hammer the line like it's just
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: we talked earlier on Sunday Night. There's a couple of
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: games that was like, just wait, the public's gonna bet
• 15:04
  Speaker 2: the sign and they have, like we've had a bunch
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: of numbers move up, so this is another one. Everyone.
• 15:10
  Speaker 2: I'll let them come all in. You could, you could
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: grab the plus one and a half right now. There
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: is one very publicly known book that has has them
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: at plus one and a half green Bay. But I'll
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: keep waiting see if the line gets a little higher.
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: I don't want to show my cards too early here
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: to the books.
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: All right, Well, I'm glad to see that. I just
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: want to double check and make sure. All right, now,
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: that is so strange. I got to tell you right
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: before we came on the air, I checked this number
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: and it was Green Bay minus two and a half
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: and now it is green Bay plus one. That is
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: just insane, all right? Atlanta at Tennessee Tennessee plus two
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night. You're like, this one is tricky because we
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: want to like Tennessee. But you know, like I just
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: mentioned with Green Bay, Lanta opened as a dog and
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: is now the favorite. So the trend is against them.
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: Titan's getting them on this right now. Let me let
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: me know what you think of this. So this week
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: the Titans traded Kevin Bayard, all pro safety to the
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Eagles all hail Howie. We don't know who's going to
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: be played in quarterback for the Titans yet it feels
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: like a smash Mike Vrabel spot. But I do worry,
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: like by trading by our is this a signal that
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: they're starting to think about rebuild or do we care?
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: Uh No, I don't. I don't care yet. I think
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: variable selve his guys up to the play and this
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: is a nice spot for Tennessee. But like you said,
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: it don't we don't know who the quarterback is. I mean,
• 16:40
  Speaker 2: it was plus one out to two and a half.
• 16:41
  Speaker 2: You might as well wait, like this could get up
• 16:43
  Speaker 2: to three. I'll throw a little in the two and
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: a half. But yeah, you're You're right, Chat, it's like
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: a tough game to read, but we assume all the
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: money will come in Atlanta. Just from that, people think
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: Tennessee's given up. The numbers should go up. This is
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: a great matchup for Tennessee's d line, Like they're good
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: at stopping the run, taking away You're you know the
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: Atlanta what that's what Atlanta needs to do. They need
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: to run this start up to pass like that's that's
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: kind of how their offense really funnel. So yeah, I
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: don't know the whole story with Robinson. They could be
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: getting in trouble for that as well. Uh, this Atlanta team,
• 17:15
  Speaker 2: so I don't know what punishment would be to them
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: or to him. But yeah, weird, weird vibes come out
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: of Atlanta. Uh, we're getting getting Tennessee at a dog
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: against an Atlanta team coming off a huge divisional road win.
• 17:30
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to take Tennessee here, So Chad, Chad's right
• 17:32
  Speaker 2: and is thinking, it's just we're hoping to get a
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: better number, so another play. I'll just wait and get
• 17:36
  Speaker 2: a better number.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: You're referencing Bijon this past week, who was never on
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the injured list, but the Falcons said he was too
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: sick to play, played one snap, then came out uh
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: and the NFL is investigating why he wasn't on the
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: injury list and what potential punishments may be if there
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: was something untoured with the Falcons in that situation. New
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: England at Miami. Miami is a nine and a half
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: point favorite. We did not bet New England last week,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: even though it was the exact right spot as huge
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: home dogs to the Bills. This is a pros Joe's
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: game tickets on the Dolphins, money on the Patriots. I
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: thought the Pats d was actually really good against the Bills,
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: like they had sort of had their two weeks of
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: not knowing who they are without Christian Gonzales and Matthew Judan,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: and they schemed their way back into competence. Bills had
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: eighty one yards rushing three point three eight yards per
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: carry on the ground, Pats had four sacks. I think
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: I would like this more if the Pats were at
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: home and Nammy had one against Philly. But also feel
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: like I'm missing out on a big reason to take
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: New England and I can't figure out what it is.
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah, a couple of pros I know they took doing it.
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: I think the number was eleven and a half before
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: that Sunday night game, and they got a decent amount
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: down on the Patriots. And their view was, it's Belichick
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: seen this offense second time around this season, like they've
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: already played them early in the year. His defense played
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: actually really well against them. And my counter to that is, well,
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: they've they've lost their two best players from that game,
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: and I know, you know, they've had some guys who
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: have stepped up for them against that Bills team. I
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: mean this, this feels like a Miami spot, right. The
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: numbers moved too much. If it was ten and a half,
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: I'd still like the Patriots. Now that it's under ten.
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: To me, the value now is showing it's Miami team.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's a little chalky, little chalky coming in
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: Miami here. But it just feels like the numbers moved
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: too much and now I'm getting value on them. So
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I'll be one of my five,
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I'll put a little on Miami here.
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: Interesting. By the way, Evan Abrams says two fifteen and
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: five against the spread at home in his career.
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: Pretty good.
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, Houston at Carolina Sunday night. You said that you
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: really liked Houston. Both teams coming off a bye, better coach,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: better QB in Houston. All the money is on Houston.
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: Ye feels like we are walking into a trap with
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: this game.
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what I said, So maybe we'll just avoid it.
• 20:17
  Speaker 2: But I can't cannot take Houston. It's a good number.
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: I just have not seen anything that give me any
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: type of hope on Carolina Panthers. And last week was
• 20:26
  Speaker 2: like the get right week for all the bad teams, right,
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: all these bad teams that had him been covering or
• 20:31
  Speaker 2: had him been doing well, they finally got wins, They
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: finally covered. Maybe that's people logic here, Maybe that's why
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: I'm seeing some money here show up on this Panthers team.
• 20:39
  Speaker 2: But I just there's nothing for me to bet on.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: I have no no angle to take with Carolina. Like
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: I've been trying to find one random numbers and it's
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: like nope, even my model thinks this is too low.
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: So yeah, been a road road favorite rookie quarterback with
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: a rookie head coach, Chad. This is not where I
• 20:58
  Speaker 2: want to be. So probably one of our five but
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: I'm definitely drinking this Houston kool aid.
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: Well, look, there's one stat that I think will make
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: you happy. Two teams that are playing, but when both
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: are off of a buy favorite thirty eight twenty three
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: and one the last twenty years, So you know, it's
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: a nice shot that you got that going for you.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: But man, this just feels trappy of trappy, and I
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: think it is because of what you just said, Like
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: last week felt as though it was a get right week,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: and the Panthers didn't play last week, So now all
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, the Panthers are playing, and this feels
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: like if there's ever going to be a time where
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: they have an opportunity, it's to cover at least against
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: a Houston team whose value is still overinflated because of
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: how good cjs Strout has been in the way they've
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: played so far this year.
• 21:48
  Speaker 2: And I know it's early in the week, but just
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: the one book I have pulled up right now, it's
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: it's shown that eighty nine percent of the money is
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: on the Panthers, but eighty four percent of the tickets
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: is on Houston, So apparently pro money is coming on
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: this Carolina team. But I don't know. I need to
• 22:03
  Speaker 2: talk to some people because I just I would love
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: to hear what they're betting here. I just don't don't
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: really see it here with this Panthers team.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: It is. Yeah, it's it's very early in the week,
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: very early. We're gonna talk about the New York Jets
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: at you know, in quotes, the New York Giants. The
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: Giants are three point dogs. I feel like we missed
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: a little bit of an opportunity to take the Giants
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: last week more prominently, like we went four and one,
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: and so I'm not complaining about it. You really liked
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: the Giants, No, I'm not. You really liked the Giants
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: last week. And I think we we sort of just
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: didn't like the number in the contest. We felt like
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: we didn't like it at two and a half. We
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: liked it better at three, So we passed. Here's my
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: hot take after reading Bill Barnwell on the front page
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: of ESPN dot com yesterday. One of my favorites, the
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: Jets defense is overrated. Here's why. Thirteen turnovers this season
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: so far versus sixteen of all of last season, but
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: in a variety of other advanced stats, yards allowed for
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: drive points allowed for drive. They are middle of the pack,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: pretty mediocre, So if they didn't have the luck of
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: the turnovers they've been creating, then they might have different
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: outcomes in some of these games that have made them
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: look so miraculous. With Zach Wilson a quarterback, makes me
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: wary of playing the Jets. But also Brian Dabell hasn't
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: committed to Daniel Jones as the starter yet, so we
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: kind of don't know what we're getting from the New
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: York Football Giants.
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: And nerds wonder why these football players just want to
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: put them in lockers and beat the shit out of them. Well,
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: let's get those nerds, you know what Bill Barnwell, no,
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: it's I know where he's coming from. But dude, they
• 23:47
  Speaker 2: they dominated Mahomes, they dominated Jalen Hurts, and then they
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: dominated Josh Allen. Like, yes, they've been lucky, dude, but
• 23:56
  Speaker 2: I'm pretty sure that's a good defense.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: I didn't say they were a bad defense.
• 24:00
  Speaker 2: It doesn't matter, Simon says. Simon says, Giants go grab
• 24:04
  Speaker 2: the three right now, Simon, we.
• 24:08
  Speaker 4: Do what sions a smash spot love Love Love the
• 24:12
  Speaker 4: Giants plus three against the Jets at home, Daniel Jones
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: is about to lose his job like his team.
• 24:19
  Speaker 2: His team looks better without him. The guys look more confident,
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: and I know they didn't really do much. People are
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: gonna be well, they didn't do much against Washington last week.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: They had little players where they just missed where I
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: think like the more Taylor's playing in this offense will
• 24:32
  Speaker 2: be there. So obviously, if Daniel Jones comes in, maybe
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: that changes my viewpoint a little bit here. But that's
• 24:37
  Speaker 2: just a good number. You're getting plus three at home
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: against Zach Wilson. I just I got it, Dote. I gotta,
• 24:42
  Speaker 2: I gotta take this number for this Giants team. So
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: Simon says, I just think this number is gonna come
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: down to two and a half two by kickoff. So
• 24:49
  Speaker 2: I'm making this mind. Simon says, just to grab this
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: important key number of three right now.
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: Start spreading the new Tyrod Taylor thirty two, twenty one
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread. His look, the guy does
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: not make mistakes, and I think that's why every year
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: he's sort of a guy who's going to continue to
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: be in the league. He's going to be a guy
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: when teams are trying to figure out who they are.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: You put him back there and he's not going to
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: screw things up for you. And in the NFL, a
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: neutral play that gets you to the next down is
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: better than a negative play that makes the next down
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: much much harder. Ask the Bears about justin fields, and
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: ask anybody who's got a playmaking quarterback for the quarterback
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: who keeps you in rhythm, keeps you on script.
• 25:36
  Speaker 2: Like.
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: You might not win as many games as you want to.
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: Your ceiling won't be as high, but your floor isn't
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: as low. And Daniel Jones has just been dreadful and
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: making the bad plays. Tyrod Taylor is not going to
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: screw up the offense for Brian Dable.
• 25:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so right there. I told you the Jets they
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: need a turnovers. That's what's been kind of great for them.
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: And if it's Taylor who doesn't turn the ball over,
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: that's what I like that angle a lot with this
• 26:02
  Speaker 2: Giants team. I just think their offense looks better with
• 26:04
  Speaker 2: him in there.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: See, you came around to the nerd tastic ways Jacksonville
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: at Pittsburgh to.
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: Get the opponent they nameless, great faces.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: I bet this immediately on Sunday night when it was
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: at two, then it got up to three. Yeah, now
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: it's down to two and a half. It is a
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: pro Joe's game. The tickets around Jacksonville, the money's on
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: the Steelers. I'm trying to figure out you've been unenthusiastic
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: about this, but it's a raw ros spot. What a
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: raw rah Mike Tomlin spot.
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: We win the game with this provel bodies right here today,
• 26:42
  Speaker 4: ring y'all game today.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Every precedent we believe in is it backs betting Tomlin
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: and the Steelers in this spot. Eighteen five and three
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: against the spread as a home dog. Is Mike Tomlin
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: seven thirty one and four overall as an underdog, most
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: profitable coach the past twenty years. By the way, that's
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: a sixty four and a half percent number against the spread.
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: Don't don't play Tennifer's oddly at all.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I saw a coup of y'all blinking though for real, no, no, gosh, well,
• 27:19
  Speaker 2: I'll talk to you about it.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: They were much more affected with Kenny Pickett and George Pickens.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: When Deontay Johnson was playing, took a lot of pressure
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: off Pickens. He runs great roots. We saw him be
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: very effective against the Rams. What do we do here?
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we're in on. I told you I like this
• 27:37
  Speaker 2: Sunday and I said to people, get good though. I
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: said this number is gonna go up. That was my
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: whole point. Don't do what jad Chad did, which was
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: he betted too early. I said, just wait, I'll go up,
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: said two and a half. Now we'll take the number.
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, another game where I hate it. But it's
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: when we can't avoid, Like if we're gonna keep doing
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: what we do, which is, you know, betting these trends,
• 27:55
  Speaker 2: these talent trends, then yeah, I'll play it. But across
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: that's the board. The Jaguars are better, but we saw
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: they do have weaknesses and that's that secondary and Derek
• 28:06
  Speaker 2: Carr I think, threw for over three hundred yards on them.
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: Like there are opportunities there. Pittsburgh has the weapons. So
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: this is another game where keep my eye on the weather.
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: If it's if this is gonna be a trrenchial downpour,
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: bad weather, I probably won't have as much as I
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: plan on betting on Pittsburgh here, but if it's if
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: it's all good, good throwing weather for Kenny, Yeah, I
• 28:24
  Speaker 2: like I like the advantage for this Pittsburgh wide receivers
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: going against that secondary. Defensively, there's a lot of stuff
• 28:30
  Speaker 2: that front can do that will give the Jaguars problems.
• 28:33
  Speaker 2: The Jaguars don't have that great on no line. So
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: you know, I got duped last week. Clearly Trevor Lawrence
• 28:40
  Speaker 2: wasn't as banged up. But this is like a game
• 28:43
  Speaker 2: right before their bye week where it's like they just
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: got to make it to that bye week, right, get
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: it all the guys healthy, make it to another bye
• 28:48
  Speaker 2: week where this Pittsburgh team should not be overlooked. Like
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: there's a reason they got what is it foreign to now?
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: They got? They got some good wins. Definitely overreacted too
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: much to they lost, you know, that Week one to
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers. They lost Week two to the Browns team,
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: and we've seen you know, they're actually not as bad
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: as we thought they were those first couple of weeks.
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: Those other teams are actually pretty good. So don't don't
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: hate it two and a half. Obviously, me and Chad,
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: if this is up to three to three and a
• 29:18
  Speaker 2: half in the contest, no brainer, play two and a
• 29:21
  Speaker 2: half thought, don't mind taking that value right now.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: I think the Jags will be a really interesting team
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: in the back half of the year because Doug Peterson
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: last year, Trevor Lawrence once he got into second half
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: of the year a significantly different and better quarterback than
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: he was in the first half of the year. Doug
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: Peterson historically significantly better as a coach record wise against
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: the spread wise in the latter half of the year
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: than he is in the first half of the year
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: in September October. So I think this Jaguars team we
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: might be finding some value, especially if in this game
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: they underperform or the Steelers find a way through their
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: defense to steal another win. Speaking of raw Rah Mike
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: Tomlin spots, we took the Steelers in every spot that
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: we can. Matt Mitchell, we're bringing them back. Are action
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: engineer Dustin and his lovely voice singing his Ario Speedwagon
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: inspired song about Mike Tomlin and his raw Ras spots and.
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: Now a big strong drake.
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna for.
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: Away. We're gonna sore because I gotta bet Mike Tomline
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: catches for.
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: New Orleans at Indy Simon very tricky spot. Cults were
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: dogs now they're favorite. Remember teams in that scenario forty
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: two to eighty one against the spread the past five years.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: Last week we bet New Orleans when they were dogs,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: they ended up as the faves. We thought we had
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: a good number. Totally makes me sick to say this. Ireleen.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: Saints wouldn't be surprised if they snuck in as a
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: fifth pick in our contest. The defense is just really good,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: like second most three and outs in the league, turnovers
• 31:31
  Speaker 1: in every game. I don't see them not getting a
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: turnover against Minshew. Their opponents have a league low seventeen
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: point eight passer rating on throws of twenty yards or more.
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: We saw how many times Gardner Minshew threw picks against
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: the Browns when he was trying to go downfield. The
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: problem is that Derek Carr is truly awful.
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I can't get away from it. It's like we're
• 31:55
  Speaker 2: supposed to take the Saints here, aren't we.
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: Yes.
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: Minshew's splits against zone and man are alarming. Like this guy,
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: he can look like an all pro when it's man,
• 32:06
  Speaker 2: but then when it's zone he is what he is
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: as a backup quarterback, Like he just cannot throw against zone.
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: So I don't know what the hell happened that Browns game.
• 32:15
  Speaker 2: Maybe it's just a game where they bang their heads
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: against Daffoy and Niners team that rode the high all
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: week and they just were unprepared against his Colts team.
• 32:22
  Speaker 2: But yeah, that the refs gave the Browns that win,
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: Like the Colts should have won that game. Tons of
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: terrible calls went against them. And yes they're coming off
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: of loss year, but it still feels like the public's
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: find a little high on this Colts team, where the
• 32:41
  Speaker 2: fact that numbers flipped. I mean I normally would jump
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: right in on the Saints when I'm gonna wait on
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: this and talk to some people like because it could
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: be really smart money coming on the Colts team and
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: they have a read here. But I'm right there with Chad.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: It's like I'm getting the better defense as a dog.
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: I'm getting the better quarterback as a dog. I know
• 32:57
  Speaker 2: it's not saying much compared to Minshew, but Derek Carr,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: the biggest issues are those red zones, man, And it
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: looked like he kind of figured some stuff out last week,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: like they kind of did some things where you know,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: as much I would love to blame him for having
• 33:12
  Speaker 2: a shitty game It's like the guy dropped the tight
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: end in the back of the end zone at the
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: end of the game. Like, that's not Derek's fault. He
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: made the right read, made a good throw. It's football.
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: Those players just happened. So feel terrible for the guy.
• 33:22
  Speaker 2: But it was right there. It was right there to
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: lane on one like they would have gone for two.
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: In my mind, there was no doubt they were gonna
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: go for two if they had scored that touchdown, and
• 33:30
  Speaker 2: that felt like that game was going to land right
• 33:33
  Speaker 2: on that number. So kind of sickening because we had
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: good value last week didn't come through. Maybe I'm chasing
• 33:39
  Speaker 2: it here, but it's like the value is on the Saints.
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: I'm just I'm gonna wait talk to some guys see
• 33:44
  Speaker 2: what they're betting here. Just because it's another game, it
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: just feels a little too easy and it doesn't make
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: sense this number.
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: Well, the problem is the defense is so good and
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: Derek Carr through his career has been serviceable enough. Then
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: it makes you feel like there's competence and that they
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: can sneak one in, especially against a team like this,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: or especially at home against the Jags. And look, they
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: should have had that game, right, there were a couple
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: of bad plays and then right at the worst moments,
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: their defense revealed and the Jags moved down the field
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: and you know, Tron Matthew got beat in a really
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: bad spot in the final two minutes, but then they
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: were able to move the ball down the field again
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: and get into that spot to score a touchdown. So
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: there's no reason for us not to back the Saints
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: like that. Could be the better team here, just hard
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: to do it.
• 34:39
  Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just the better coaching is on the colt side,
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: and we know that for a fact. It's like, yeah,
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: we have the proof of them pointing Dennis Allen is
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: he's a bad head coach. He's the worst head coach
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: we've ever seen him football technically, ats record wise. So
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: that's that's definitely the big pushback here from a lot
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: of people.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: Yeah, no, you're right, it is not a great spot,
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: all right. Your Philadelphia Eagles had a big win on
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: Monday night. On Sunday night, I mean against Miami. They're
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: now going on the road. We don't know what's going
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: on with Jalen Hurts. Has he hurt or is he
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: not playing at Washington? The numbers at six and a half.
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: We talked about this on Sunday. We'd like to wait
• 35:23
  Speaker 1: for it to get to seven. I feel like, if
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: I were to self scout our season so far, the
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: biggest sort of misses we've had is we haven't been
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: as aggressive this year as we have in the past
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: taking home dogs. We've been a little more nervous about
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: it than we have in the past, a little more
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: gun shy. This to me feels like a spot where
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: you're gonna want to take Washington.
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: I think we're on like five home dogs this week, ched,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: are you feeling all right?
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: I mean the big home dogs, like we ignored. We've
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: ignored Arizona a couple times in the content is a
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: big home dog. We ignored Miami last week as a
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: big home dog. I don't mean the short home dogs.
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: I mean like the touchdown nearly touchdown, or more home dogs.
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: We missed a lot of big favorites too. That you
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: won't let me bet big favorites either, Chad, you can't
• 36:15
  Speaker 2: have it both ways. Like I've loved Miami's these big favorites,
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: and every week you're just like the numbers two big
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: and we don't take it. I mean it's tough. We're
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: doing a bouncing act here.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Can I tell something else? I think there is something
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: wrong with me this week, Like I have been cloudy
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: the whole freaking week, Like I'm forgetting things, I'm miss
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: typing things. I honestly, I do think that it might
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: be there might be something wrong with me.
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: You just had a weekend with the boys. You'll be
• 36:41
  Speaker 2: all right. Let's go here with Washington. I mean, we
• 36:44
  Speaker 2: don't have a choice. Like the visional home Dog, the
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: hype is very high on the Eagles right now. Washington
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: is a good bi low spot. They just got embarrassed
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: tons of turnovers. Sam. I think I think he's on pace.
• 36:59
  Speaker 2: They're like blow out the record that Carr's brothers set
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: David Carr years ago, the sack record. Eagles front four
• 37:07
  Speaker 2: huge advantage. Like There's nothing I can find with Washington
• 37:11
  Speaker 2: that gives me hope other than the fact that they
• 37:14
  Speaker 2: technically usually play these games very close. I think they
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: already played this year, and I think the Eagles won
• 37:18
  Speaker 2: by three really close matchups. Usually it's it's tough. It
• 37:24
  Speaker 2: feels like I need to talk to more guys because
• 37:26
  Speaker 2: it feels like we're doing the Chargers thing from last
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: week where it's just like, well, these teams always played close,
• 37:30
  Speaker 2: let's just take the number here. But I just I
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: like the way Washington matches up with the Eagles, and
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: then the Eagles just there's something not right, like Hurts
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: and his turnovers, like all these little things. Yes, it
• 37:43
  Speaker 2: was incredible he was able to overcome throwing a pick
• 37:45
  Speaker 2: six and they won by fourteen against Miami. But it's just, man,
• 37:50
  Speaker 2: you can't get away with that kind of stuff, like
• 37:52
  Speaker 2: throwing those turnovers, like he had a fumble I think
• 37:54
  Speaker 2: on the Eagles thirty yard line. So yeah, like it's
• 37:59
  Speaker 2: pain full to do here, people, but we're going by
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: the book. We're going what gets us to sixty percent
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: every year. This is a spot like this is a
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: nice spot to take. Washington plus six and a half,
• 38:10
  Speaker 2: we'll love if it gets the seven. I just don't
• 38:12
  Speaker 2: think the pros are gonna let it get there. So
• 38:14
  Speaker 2: once again, I'll throw a little on the six and
• 38:16
  Speaker 2: a half. But don't be shocked if the Star big balls,
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: big balls Beck come Thursday.
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: It feels like it might be. And Evan had a
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: great stat last week about division games. The dogs in
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: division games, the past sixty years, something like sixty games
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: over five hundred against the spread, and when the number
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: moves higher that that becomes an even bigger discrepancy. I mean,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: it's the reason why we liked Atlanta last week, but
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: it's also the reason why we liked the Chargers last week,
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: and so that's what makes it so scary. But I
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: do think, yeah, we kind of got to go with
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: Washington here.
• 39:04
  Speaker 2: Yeah, big, big week for home dogs, like a lot
• 39:06
  Speaker 2: of public rover reaction, which they won't learn their lesson.
• 39:10
  Speaker 2: I mean, they got burned horribly last week, and I
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: think they're going to walk right into it again this week.
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: Like there's just a lot of favorites where the public
• 39:17
  Speaker 2: receives them as being much better than the team they're
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: playing against. Her It's like these teams are much closer
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: than people realize. So yeah, this this week, we're definitely
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: heavy on home dogs. Right now.
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: The status overall dogs and division games are sixty games
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: above five hundred against the spread the last decade, forty
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: games since twenty twenty and since twenty fifteen. Home No,
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: since that doesn't apply. It's just the first one that matters.
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: But geez, Louise I know it's another one, right, Simon,
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: I see you laughing at me. It's like, I'm still foggy.
• 39:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I don't know what the hell's
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: going on here, But yeah, we're going to be on Washington.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: That's really the bottom line. On Sunday night, we talked
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: about this game Cleveland at Seattle. It was at two
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: and a half. It's been bet up to three. I
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: bet this at two and a half. I bet Seattle
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: minus two and a half. Shout out to Brandon Anderson
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: who had this as one of his hot reads. Seattle
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: defense is just really good against the run, and that
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: may be all the Browns can do because we don't
• 40:27
  Speaker 1: know what's happening with DeShawn or if PJ. Walker is
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: going to play. The money is coming in on the Seattle.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: It's not the public on Seattle. It's not the public
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: backing the Seahawks. And you mentioned it. You look at
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: that Colts game. The Colts should have beaten the Browns
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: like they didn't win because PJ. Walker was so great.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: They won because there were three pass interference slash defensive
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: holding calls on the final drive that gave the Browns
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: the game. It just did, so I bet two and
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: a half. I don't know how you're gonna feel about
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: Seattle at minus three in the contest, but I did
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: like Seattle minus three.
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't do it this. This d line is going
• 41:12
  Speaker 2: to have a field day with this with Seattle front,
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: Like this is a bad front, Gino. If he's off
• 41:18
  Speaker 2: his spot, he's useless. The guy can't be thrown off
• 41:21
  Speaker 2: his spot. He's just a guy that likes to be
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: in rhythm. Uh, I get it, though, Like Seahawks, you're
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: catching her to three. You're playing what you presume to
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: be a backup quarterback in PGA or either this Deshaun.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: Deshaun's looked like ass all year anyway, It's not like
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: it's a great number. So I guess we can just
• 41:36
  Speaker 2: pass on it, because, yeah, I'll take the good defense
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: with a three. Probably I'll throw someone on the under here,
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: Like Seahawks have a good defense as well. Last week
• 41:47
  Speaker 2: just was just a bad week for this this Browns defense. Like,
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: I don't I don't think you know they were going
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: to be breaking all the world records. But did I
• 41:56
  Speaker 2: see Minshew having a career day against them? No? Like
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: that's just football, though, things happen like that bad scheme.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: You expect the Browns here to come with better prepared
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: right the Seahawks team, and I believe they had. I
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: believe the Cardinals had something weird stat I think Edvan
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: was one of the posts that they were like plus
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: three and turnover margin in that game against the Seahawks,
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: yet they still lost like double digits, which happened.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: Team is a seven point dog or higher who are
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: plus three or better in the turnover battle, which the
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: Cardinals were one hundred and sixty five and six and
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: three against the spread. So the Cars are now one
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: of those six teams.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: So that's what's making me nurse by the Seahawks teams.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: They just might be one of those incredibly lucky teams
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: where it's like, you know, not only they they got talent,
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: but they have a lot of luck on their side.
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll probably just wait again, I have no
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: money in this game, yet it gets a three and
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: a half no brainer, Like, I'll be all over this team,
• 42:57
  Speaker 2: but at three, my guy Chatty already likes to see aux.
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: I'll just wait on this one. But definitely definitely not
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: one that'll be one of our five.
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at Arizona Arizona plus eight and a half. And
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: this is what I was just talking about, Like we've
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: been hesitant to bet bigger home dogs. We talked a
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: little bit about about this on Sunday night. I just
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: you just mentioned the crazy stat I'll repeat it. In
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy four games in the Wild Card era,
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: teams that were seven point dogs or more so. That
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: was the Cardinals on Sunday who had a three a
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: plus three or better turnover margin. That was the Cars
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: as well. They were one hundred and sixty five six
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: and three against the spread. So the Cars are now
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: one of the teams that lost. Right, feels like a
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: smashed spot for the Cardinals. Huge home dogs. Baltimore just
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: dominated one of the most public teams in football. All
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Baltimore signing.
• 43:58
  Speaker 2: Yeah, just a game. Don't be shocked, Bill, this one
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: of our five. It's I just said, it's a good spot.
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: I already talked about Cardinals first half. You gotta bet it.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: You know, they were a weird team, man Like they
• 44:11
  Speaker 2: they come out so well prepared and they do well
• 44:14
  Speaker 2: in the first half and in the second half they
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: just lay, They lay these eggs, like their offense falls
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: into a shell of itself. Zach Ertz's I mean, he's
• 44:24
  Speaker 2: been money for them on third downs this year. They
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: just put them an ir that's a big deal. Like
• 44:27
  Speaker 2: you're taking away a guy that's been a safety blanket
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: for them on third downs, like he's gone, James Conner's gone.
• 44:36
  Speaker 2: This is already a team that was lacking talent on offense.
• 44:39
  Speaker 2: Now you're taking away two of their better weapons. So
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: I hate it where it's like me and Chad were
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: supposed to take Arizona here. Everything about this is saying
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: take Arizona this this game here. If the Ravens win this,
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: they go on a three game homestead after this, like
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: it's they they're definitely looking ahead to that. Where it's
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: just like we just got to get through this one
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: more road game on the shitty ass field they have
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: down in Arizona where everyone complains about that damn field.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: But I hate it. Make me sick, Chad, But we're
• 45:08
  Speaker 2: supposed to take day and a half here. I got
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: this number at seven, we're getting a point a half
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: of value. You know, don't don't go crazy bat in
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: this one right now. But like, I've definitely placed a
• 45:18
  Speaker 2: decent amount of eight and a half right now, but
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: wouldn't wouldn't be shocked to see this number go up
• 45:23
  Speaker 2: just because they do have such serious injuries on that
• 45:26
  Speaker 2: Arizona sign. But in the back of my mind taking
• 45:30
  Speaker 2: it now because what if Kyler comes back? What if
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: he does come back for this game? And yeah, I
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: get it, he could be rusty all that other stuff,
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: but it's like, people forget this guy is such an
• 45:39
  Speaker 2: insane weapon. To know that we have him with eight
• 45:43
  Speaker 2: and a half points, it feels pretty damn good. So
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: it's it's definitely a bet I'm making right now, but
• 45:48
  Speaker 2: I'm not going too crazy on it. As we're sitting here.
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: On Tuesday, you mentioned luck right Cincinnati at San Francisco,
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: the Niners five and a half point favorites Bengals coming
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: off a bye. The Niners had a lot of chances
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: against Minnesota to wrap up a dirty, ugly game, three turnovers.
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: That first half sixty yard touchdown that you and I
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: have talked about that Steve Wilke's uncharacteristically blitzes leads to
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the touchdown. They missed the field goal. This will be
• 46:25
  Speaker 1: the biggest Luck Luck Rankings matchup of the week, it'll
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: be a twenty six point difference between San Francisco and Cincy.
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: It's a little scary because we love Joe Burrow. We
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: love Joe Burrow off a bye. He's great as an underdog.
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: But the numbers are going to say back Cincinnati at
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: under back, San Francisco at under six.
• 46:51
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And the big friend to me, like looking on
• 46:53
  Speaker 2: the field is the defenses have found something here in
• 46:56
  Speaker 2: the last two weeks. And we know it's a copycat league.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: So if you will't watch the Browns again, the Browns
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: were doing was they were rushing three, four guys and
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: then dropping their rest into a coverage and that's exactly
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: what the Vikings did against Perdy. It was just simply
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: party actually can scramble. So what these teams have been
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: doing is they will rush three and you have to
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: that fourth defender drop into a zone reading position where
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: he's like, okay, if he's gonna rush out, I'll pick
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: him up, or if he tries to move outside the pocket,
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: I'll go through a pressure on him. So the book,
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: the book might be out on Purdy Chat like I
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: talk all the time, like the venture they were going
• 47:32
  Speaker 2: to figure him out. I said it all offseason. These
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: guys have tape. They're going to figure out eventually what
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: this kid does not like, and they're going to take
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: away the things he does like. Now he's missing Debo,
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: he's missing arguably the best tackle on all football. That's
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: not Perdy's fault, like, that's not scheme like, that's that's
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: a real thing. You're taking away his key positions here.
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: So yeah, the Bengals were supposed to take him here
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: like it was plus six. It's plus five and a
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: half now. But I can't stopped thinking about all Joe
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: burrow struggles. He's not the quarterback he's been these past
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: couple of seasons. Go look at his balls downfield. He
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: is terrible at throwing the ball twenty plus yards downfield.
• 48:10
  Speaker 2: So we have so many damn home teams. That was
• 48:13
  Speaker 2: making me sicker or it feels like I need a
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: force in a road team. But yeah, Chad's right, Like
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: the Lions probably moved too much. The Lions probably shifted
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: to the diye in the forty nine ers. I mean
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: they to talk to some people, watch more film because
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: I'm I am worried about party like that. Those defensive
• 48:29
  Speaker 2: sets were real. He had easy reads, and he wasn't
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: taking the easy read. He was forcing the ball downfield
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: into coverage. Not what I want to see here. So yeah,
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. Chad likes it's telling me we should
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: take the forty nine ers, But I'm gonna I'm gonna
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: wait on this one.
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: I am very excited for sharp calls this week. I'm
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: excited for sharp calls when they say, oh my god,
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: Chad spot on about the Cowboys. And I'm excited to
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: see the reaction to some of these games where where
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: we know the math is saying one thing and our
• 49:01
  Speaker 1: hearts might be saying another thing, and if they can
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: help us tip the scales a little bit. The last
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: game that I think is the biggest challenge, which I
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: know we're gonna have to do, Denver plus eight home
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: dog against Kansas City. I did bet it at this number.
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: It was eight and a half on Sunday. Yeah, the
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: only reason we were waiting is we were hoping it
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: might go a little bit higher. It's moved in the
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: direction of the Broncos, not surprising massive pros Joe's game
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: right now. It moved down to seven and a half
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: went back up to eight. It's toggling between those two numbers,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: at least from what I've seen all day here on Tuesday.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: That's why I took the eight. Are you still feeling
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: like this is a game that we agree on on
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: Sunday night, Like we're looking at this and we got
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: to take the Broncos.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah it sucks though, but yeah, because the Chiefs got
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: to Chiefs. You just might have the best defense on football.
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: We've been saying that since whatever it was Week two,
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: where they've just looked like the most complete defense. But
• 50:16
  Speaker 2: the guy I had just put a lot of stock
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: in on their defense, Bolton, He's their linebacker. The kid's
• 50:21
  Speaker 2: been an absolute stud. He's not gonna be in this game.
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: He dislocated his wrists. He's going to miss this game,
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: which that should favor for a month. Yeah, that that's
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: to me. That should be a big deal. Like I
• 50:31
  Speaker 2: put him right up there as one of the best
• 50:33
  Speaker 2: linebackers in all football. So yeah, Chad, like not shocking
• 50:39
  Speaker 2: the Pros came in on this number. I was hoping
• 50:41
  Speaker 2: this would go up. But we do this every time.
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: We take Denver every time here in this spot, and
• 50:49
  Speaker 2: nothing has changed. Here we're getting a seven and a
• 50:52
  Speaker 2: half home divisional dog. Chad's already hit you with all
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: the stats. It's just it's by the book. It's what
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: you're supposed to do. Here, we can't avoid it. All
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: these home dogs this week, we just can't. We can't
• 51:03
  Speaker 2: avoid them. Like it's another one. We just we gotta
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: take it.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Well, here's the thing, like, look, we bet all these
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: home dogs. We bet the big home dogs in theory,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: not in theory. In practice, you win these fifty five
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: to sixty percent of the time. So it doesn't mean
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: we believe we're gonna sweep the board with Denver plus
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: eight or Arizona plus eight and a half or Washington
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: plus six and a half. Right forgetting around, right, Like
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: you know we're we're going we expect to win two
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: of those three games when we're betting those big dogs.
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: We don't expect to in all of them, but the
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: expectations will win two of those three games. But you'll
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: win the numbers when you're your misery, when you were like, yeah,
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: we got to do it.
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: I just love the Chiefs. The Chiefs are so good
• 51:58
  Speaker 2: on film. No defense spags got them playing out of
• 52:01
  Speaker 2: their mind. Offensively, like, yeah, take away at Kelsey, that
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: team's gonna fall apart. But the dudes, the dudes humming
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: right now with Mahomes. It's just they're just so in sync.
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: It's ridiculous.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: And I don't know.
• 52:12
  Speaker 2: No Taylor Swift hopefully no Taylor Swift and Denver hopefully.
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: I know because she is. She's a shining light. Everywhere
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: she goes. She brings joy, optimism, goodwill, good cheer, and
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: good vibes for Travis Kelcey.
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: No comment Chicago.
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: Bears at the LA Chargers Treagers are eating and a
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: half point favorites on Sunday Night football.
• 52:38
  Speaker 2: I don't have a fee moving. We'll talk about this
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: one maybe on Thursday. I got I got nothing on this.
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: Yeah, It's like in my notes, I just wrote, no thanks.
• 52:46
  Speaker 2: We're supposed to take We're supposed to take the Bears,
• 52:48
  Speaker 2: but I have no idea what to do with it.
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to do with it either. Believe
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: you me. I've had more than one conversation about QB
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: one versus QB two on the Chicago Bears in the past.
• 52:58
  Speaker 2: Jeez, what a sad, sad life of their stands.
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: That might be when my head is so screwed right now,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: no joke. I was on the phone with my buddy
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: this morning, who I was with in Columbus this weekend.
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: He was trying to ignore a call from the CFO
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: at his company so we could finish our conversation about
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears quarterback situation. We just we just can't
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: get off it. We got a lot of deep feelings
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: about it. Las Vegas Raiders visiting the Detroit Lions Monday
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: night football. This is a knee caps for dinner game
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: for Dan Campbell. He's coming off a loss, huge favorite.
• 53:43
  Speaker 3: So this team, Detroit, We're gonna kick you in the
• 53:45
  Speaker 3: teeth and when you punch its, we're gonna smile at you.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: And when you knock us down, we're gonna get up.
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: And on the way up, we're going to buy a
• 53:51
  Speaker 3: kneecap off all right, We're gonna take your other kneecap
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: before long, where they're going to be the last one standing.
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: You said on Sunday, I think you said it might
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: be time to take a piece of life, even at
• 54:00
  Speaker 1: this big of a number. I don't know that this
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: is a contest play, especially not on a Monday night,
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: but I don't know if you still have strong feelings
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: about it.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, through a little in a seven and a half.
• 54:10
  Speaker 2: It's up to eight eight and a half in some
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: books now, and it's I just know a real read.
• 54:17
  Speaker 2: If you do like the Raiders, you could get a
• 54:19
  Speaker 2: good number because Jimmy g could come back and maybe
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: the line will move that will benefit you. But it
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: feels like we know what Detroit is. They're they're really
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: talented team, They're well coached, and I don't think I
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: don't I just don't see them laying another egg after
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: such a bad game last week. But yeah, Chad's right
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: like this, this is not one of my five favorite bets.
• 54:40
  Speaker 2: Happiest stay away from it.
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: It's interesting. I'm looking at our games right now. Amongst
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: our favorite bets, we we the Royal. We love Dallas
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: minus six. We're going to keep an eye on Green Bay,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: see how that goes. We you like Miami minus nine
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: and a half is a huge favorite, and by the way,
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: I have not been hesitant to put in huge favorites.
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: We talked a lot about Miami is a huge favorite
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a few weeks ago, and I think I was on board.
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: We decided not to do it collectively. Okay, do you
• 55:21
  Speaker 1: have a different memory of that conversation?
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but it doesn't even matter.
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: The past is the past, dude, You're still Mike Tomlin
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: Simon says, is New York Giants plus three. Uh, we
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: like the Steelers plus two and a half. We like
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: plus one, Washington plus six and a half, Arizona plus
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: eight and a half. We lean San Francisco minus five
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: and a half, Denver plus eight. Holy moly, that's that
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: is a ugly. That is a lineup of of not that,
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: that is a lineup of moral stinktitude right there on
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: stink Atude. As a reminder, the Favorites Podcast is presented
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