Transcript

Sharri | 17 March · Sharri

0:01
Speaker 1: Live on Sky News.
0:04
Speaker 2: This is Shari, Thanks Andrew, and good evening. The RBA
0:10
Speaker 2: Unleasha's a wartime rate hike, with Michelle Bullock declaring price
0:14
Speaker 2: spikes from Iran are not behind the rays and now
0:18
Speaker 2: we're being warned about the prospect of a recession. We'll
0:22
Speaker 2: have the best analysis tonight with esteemed economist Shane Oliver
0:26
Speaker 2: and former Financial Review editor in chief Michael Stutchbury. In
0:30
Speaker 2: breaking news tonight, key Iranian security officials have been targeted
0:36
Speaker 2: in Israeli air strikes, including the senior security officer Ali Larijani.
0:42
Speaker 2: Another senior figure believed to be dead. This after President
0:46
Speaker 2: Trump says that new Supreme Leader mosh Taba Khamenei could
0:50
Speaker 2: not be alive. Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister Sharen Haskell will
0:54
Speaker 2: join me live for an exclusive interview, and that is
0:58
Speaker 2: major breaking news. Also on the show, Sydney's Bienali Festival
1:02
Speaker 2: erupts after anti Israel chance on opening night lead to
1:06
Speaker 2: corporate sponsors dropping out. Camra Milne and Holly Hughes will
1:10
Speaker 2: be here a bit later on, and.
1:12
Speaker 3: The mysterious artist at Banksy's.
1:15
Speaker 2: Identity uncovered in a major investigation. But first interest rates
1:21
Speaker 2: rose by a quarter of a percentage point today, taking
1:24
Speaker 2: the cash rate to four point one percent. For an
1:27
Speaker 2: average mortgage holder, it means an extra one hundred and
1:31
Speaker 2: ninety one dollars a month based on a six hundred
1:34
Speaker 2: thousand dollars mortgage, and if there's another rise in May,
1:38
Speaker 2: as many economists predict, then monthly repayments will be an
1:42
Speaker 2: extra three hundred dollars more on a cumulative basis. The
1:47
Speaker 2: Albanezy government blamed the war for the rise, but the
1:51
Speaker 2: reality is the upward rate cycle had already started before Iran.
1:57
Speaker 2: Now the Treasurer was pressed on this today tasure.
2:01
Speaker 4: The markets had largely infected in a rate hike this
2:04
Speaker 4: month before the war.
2:05
Speaker 1: They're already factoring in a rate hike in the main meeting.
2:09
Speaker 5: I think the expectations of a rate hike at this
2:11
Speaker 5: meeting were about one in ten before hostilities in the
2:14
Speaker 5: Middle East, and they became about two and three I
2:17
Speaker 5: think from memory in the lead up to the meeting.
2:21
Speaker 2: But just last month in February, interest rates went up
2:25
Speaker 2: after CPI rose, with government spending identified by many economists
2:30
Speaker 2: as the biggest issue, and the Albanezy government does hold
2:34
Speaker 2: the record for highest spending, highest tax revenue and highest debt,
2:39
Speaker 2: and it seems voters know this, with a new poll
2:42
Speaker 2: today showing that Australians blame Albanezi his government for the
2:47
Speaker 2: inflation pressures. The result of political monitor in The Herald
2:51
Speaker 2: found that forty percent of people believe the federal government
2:55
Speaker 2: is responsible for rising living costs, compared with only seven
3:00
Speaker 2: seventeen percent believing global factors are to blame. The survey
3:05
Speaker 2: also showed that Australians are now cutting down on takeaway meals,
3:09
Speaker 2: They're counseling streaming services and putting off repairs around.
3:13
Speaker 3: The house to make ends meet.
3:16
Speaker 2: Now, HSBC Australia Chief Economist Paul Bloxam has wanted that
3:22
Speaker 2: the RBA may even have to drive Australia into a
3:26
Speaker 2: recession to bring us inflation under control.
3:30
Speaker 6: There's an increasing risk that we have to have a
3:32
Speaker 6: recession in order to get inflation down. I'm not nominating
3:35
Speaker 6: that we're going to have one at this point in time.
3:37
Speaker 6: I think a downturn is necessary.
3:41
Speaker 2: Look, this is certainly worrying and it was one of
3:44
Speaker 2: the things that IBA Governor Michelle Bullock was asked about today.
3:50
Speaker 7: Inflation was already too high reflecting the fact that demand
3:54
Speaker 7: is outstripping supply. Higher fuel costs will not slow demand
3:58
Speaker 7: enough on their own.
3:59
Speaker 1: To address this.
4:00
Speaker 7: If we do not act, these price pressures will spread
4:03
Speaker 7: and the eventual adjustment would be harder. We don't want
4:08
Speaker 7: to have a recession, but if it's hard to get
4:11
Speaker 7: inflation down, then you know we're going to have to
4:14
Speaker 7: deal with that.
4:16
Speaker 8: Possibly.
4:18
Speaker 2: There is now criticism of both the RBA and the
4:21
Speaker 2: Albanezy government over their handling of the economy. Some economists
4:26
Speaker 2: I spoke to today said that if inflation was under control,
4:31
Speaker 2: the RBA might afford to write out the oil crisis
4:35
Speaker 2: stayed their hand.
4:37
Speaker 3: That would be the cautious.
4:38
Speaker 2: Approach with a potential oil shock. See where this goes
4:42
Speaker 2: before reacting in haste, because the oil shock could spark
4:47
Speaker 2: inflation and even result in recession. Raising rates is risky
4:53
Speaker 2: when oil prices are thirty percent higher, because this means
4:57
Speaker 2: that real incomes are already thirty percent lower. The higher
5:01
Speaker 2: petrol prices have a similar impact to a rate rise.
5:05
Speaker 2: It's disinflationary, it cuts the spending power of households. Yet
5:12
Speaker 2: at the same time, rising petrol prices can also contribute
5:16
Speaker 2: to increasing inflation and this is similar to what happened
5:20
Speaker 2: in the seventies. Unfortunately, there's an entrenched inflation problem in
5:26
Speaker 2: Australia already, even.
5:28
Speaker 3: Without the war in Iran.
5:30
Speaker 2: So the reality is inflation is not under control. It's
5:34
Speaker 2: not within target band as we were repeatedly told that
5:37
Speaker 2: it would.
5:37
Speaker 3: Be by twenty twenty six.
5:40
Speaker 2: Taking oil and Iran out of the equation, Australia is
5:44
Speaker 2: among the worst in the OECD when it.
5:46
Speaker 3: Comes to inflation.
5:48
Speaker 2: Now, when there was a rate rise during the Coalition
5:51
Speaker 2: government in the election campaign cycle, you might remember that
5:55
Speaker 2: Labour firmly blamed Scott Morrison.
5:58
Speaker 5: Foretment has an excuse for everything and a plan for nothing.
6:03
Speaker 4: Scott Morrison has an excuse for everything and a plan
6:07
Speaker 4: for nothing. And all of this before the recent yews
6:11
Speaker 4: of the highest inflation rates in two decades and an
6:15
Speaker 4: interest rate hike that sent jitters through Australia's cities, suburbs
6:21
Speaker 4: and regions. You also deserve a prime minister who accepts responsibility,
6:30
Speaker 4: who doesn't always look for someone else to blame.
6:34
Speaker 2: Well, that was then, but now that the rises are
6:37
Speaker 2: occurring under their watch, it's a different story. With the
6:41
Speaker 2: Albaneze government refusing to acknowledge their high government spending is
6:46
Speaker 2: a contributing factor well. Opposition leader Angus Taylor said today
6:51
Speaker 2: that inflation was raging before.
6:53
Speaker 3: The war and he squarely blamed the government.
6:57
Speaker 9: Inflation was raging before this conflict started. Interest rates were
7:01
Speaker 9: going up before this conflict started. And the real problem
7:04
Speaker 9: we're facing is that inflation in this country is homegrown.
7:07
Speaker 9: It comes from Canberra and the government hasn't been on
7:10
Speaker 9: top of it and they need to get on top
7:12
Speaker 9: of the situation fast.
7:14
Speaker 2: He also specifically blamed the government for the rate rise
7:18
Speaker 2: that we saw today and he spoke about how families
7:21
Speaker 2: were paying two seven hundred dollars more a year in
7:25
Speaker 2: mortgage repayments since Albanez He first came to office.
7:30
Speaker 9: The government has created an economic environment where the RBA
7:34
Speaker 9: is under pressure to raise rates. The average Australian family
7:38
Speaker 9: with a mortgage, the typical Australian family with a mortgage
7:41
Speaker 9: in this country right now is paying twenty five thousand
7:43
Speaker 9: dollars a year more in after tax income. They're working
7:47
Speaker 9: harder for less.
7:49
Speaker 2: And he wants a bipartisan task force to examine government
7:53
Speaker 2: spending to take the pressure off this that's unlikely to happen.
7:58
Speaker 2: But when any economy dare to raise the issue of
8:01
Speaker 2: government spending their personally targeted. Former RBA governor and esteemed
8:07
Speaker 2: economist Phil Low experienced this first hand. When he dared
8:11
Speaker 2: to criticize the level of spending, he was attacked personally
8:16
Speaker 2: by both the Prime Minister and the Treasurer.
8:19
Speaker 5: Well, he's the former Reserve Bank governor and he's got
8:22
Speaker 5: his name in the paper today.
8:23
Speaker 4: And Phil Low the footballer, former manly player or FORMERBI governor.
8:31
Speaker 2: But attacking Low personally doesn't dilute the reality. Former Treasurer
8:36
Speaker 2: Peter Costello I heard him speak on Friday night at
8:39
Speaker 2: John Howard's thirtieth anniversary of when his government won power,
8:44
Speaker 2: and Costello pointed out that spending has been growing at
8:48
Speaker 2: two percent per ANAM over the past sixteen years, two
8:51
Speaker 2: percent per ADAM, while taxes have been growing at one
8:55
Speaker 2: percent per ADAM. So despite record tax revenue, spending is
9:00
Speaker 2: outpacing it and this is terrible for productivity and certainly
9:04
Speaker 2: for inflation. Twenty years ago, Australia had its first debt
9:09
Speaker 2: free day on the twentieth of April two thousand and six,
9:13
Speaker 2: a debt free Commonwealth. Imagine that twenty years later, we're
9:18
Speaker 2: approaching April and debt is now on track to hit
9:22
Speaker 2: a trillion dollars for the first time ever this year
9:27
Speaker 2: mid this year, and the economic outlook for our nation
9:32
Speaker 2: has never been more gloomy. For more on this rate
9:40
Speaker 2: rise now, and we're going to get to the breaking
9:42
Speaker 2: news in the Middle East shortly with sharenn Haskell joining
9:45
Speaker 2: us Live for an exclusive interview.
9:47
Speaker 3: But now for more on this rate rise.
9:49
Speaker 2: Joining me now on the desk is former editor in
9:52
Speaker 2: chief of The Financial Review and the current executive director
9:55
Speaker 2: of the Center for Independent Studies, Michael Stutchfrey.
9:58
Speaker 3: Great to see you, Thanks for being here.
10:00
Speaker 2: Thank you on to start with your analysis of what
10:03
Speaker 2: the RBA Governor Michelle Bullock had to say today when
10:06
Speaker 2: she announced this second rate rise.
10:10
Speaker 10: Well, I think what it is is the reason why
10:13
Speaker 10: we're having this is because people, voters, workers, businesses are
10:20
Speaker 10: sort of losing a bit of faith in the ability
10:24
Speaker 10: or the commitment of the government and on extent the
10:28
Speaker 10: Reserve Bank to really get on top of this inflationment.
10:30
Speaker 10: So they've lost faith. And this goes to the term
10:35
Speaker 10: that Michelle Bullock used several times a day, and in
10:38
Speaker 10: her statement was the main dominating idea in the statement
10:43
Speaker 10: of inflation expectations that Austrains now think that inflation will
10:48
Speaker 10: keep on going and rise faster than the reserve banks
10:52
Speaker 10: two to three percent inflation target. And that's already been
10:56
Speaker 10: the case before the Middle East War broke out a
10:59
Speaker 10: couple of weeks ago, and with a stronger inflation number
11:04
Speaker 10: that we saw there. And the real danger is a
11:06
Speaker 10: bit of wonky central bank talk. But if people think
11:09
Speaker 10: that inflation is going to keep on going, then that
11:13
Speaker 10: becomes a bit self fulfilling and they start to act
11:16
Speaker 10: as well, so they want higher wage increases, and businesses
11:20
Speaker 10: will put up their prices more to become self fulfilling.
11:22
Speaker 10: And then the longer inflation stays above the reserve banks
11:25
Speaker 10: two to three percent inflation target and realize now it's
11:28
Speaker 10: three point eight percent before the war breaks out, the
11:32
Speaker 10: higher petrol prices now will mean inflation will probably go
11:35
Speaker 10: up to close to five percent or so annually.
11:39
Speaker 3: That makes it I think it is going to go
11:41
Speaker 3: up to five percent.
11:42
Speaker 10: I think just the increase in petrol prices, and that's
11:45
Speaker 10: really been sort of conceded by the Treasurer Jim Chalmers
11:48
Speaker 10: has said it will go up into the high fours
11:49
Speaker 10: and so close to five, so that becomes self fulfilling
11:54
Speaker 10: and that makes it harder. As Michelle Bullock said on
11:57
Speaker 10: your intro there, it means the adjustment will be harder.
12:01
Speaker 10: So if they don't move now to restore their credibility,
12:04
Speaker 10: to show that they are serious about it, that'll make
12:07
Speaker 10: it harder to get inflation backed down and to stop
12:10
Speaker 10: over all the cost of living squeeze.
12:12
Speaker 3: That phrase, restore their credibility.
12:15
Speaker 2: Do you think the IRBA does have a case to
12:18
Speaker 2: answer for making mistakes in the second half of twenty
12:21
Speaker 2: twenty five, not taking inflation seriously enough and even perhaps
12:26
Speaker 2: the interest rate cut.
12:28
Speaker 3: Before the election.
12:29
Speaker 10: Yeah, I think clearly they're behind behind the curve on inflation,
12:34
Speaker 10: on fighting inflation. It was coming down, it came down
12:37
Speaker 10: from almost eight percent, and then it came down almost
12:40
Speaker 10: got into the two to three percent, and now it's
12:42
Speaker 10: bubbled up again to close to four percent, even before
12:46
Speaker 10: the Middle East breakout. So I think they have got
12:49
Speaker 10: behind the curve. I think unfortunately as well, they have
12:52
Speaker 10: been put under pressure by the government and the really thing.
12:56
Speaker 10: I think it's driven the inflation bubbling back up again
12:59
Speaker 10: is two things. One is excess government spending. Government spending
13:04
Speaker 10: is now at a record peacetime level in Australia, and
13:09
Speaker 10: so that's pushed the demand or overall spending the economy
13:13
Speaker 10: beyond the supply of the capability of the economy to
13:16
Speaker 10: produce more goods and services. So demand's gone up, but
13:20
Speaker 10: supply has been restricted because our productivity performance is so weak.
13:24
Speaker 10: So whenever the economy grows more than by about two
13:26
Speaker 10: percent in real terms, it's a peddling amount, it's very mediocre,
13:30
Speaker 10: it runs into supply constraints and the result is inflation.
13:33
Speaker 10: And unfortunately, given almost like the political economy of monetary
13:38
Speaker 10: policy in Australia, the reserve banks sort of not allowed
13:40
Speaker 10: to talk about the government spending, which I think is
13:44
Speaker 10: unfortunate because it is a real thing. It's sort of
13:47
Speaker 10: undeniable that we've had this ratcheting up on the size
13:50
Speaker 10: of government by several percentage points of GDP that is
13:54
Speaker 10: clearly pushing the economy beyond full capacity and producing inflation.
14:00
Speaker 10: That's forcing them to now act to gain to increase
14:02
Speaker 10: interest rates twice in two board meetings.
14:06
Speaker 2: It is the elephant in the room and it seems
14:08
Speaker 2: that whenever economists mention it, they are personally attacked it,
14:13
Speaker 2: not just feel though others have been as well or
14:16
Speaker 2: criticized by the government. And Michelle Bullock won't go there,
14:20
Speaker 2: but clearly this is something that needs to be addressed.
14:23
Speaker 2: And I suppose this is more of a political question
14:25
Speaker 2: now Stuch, but I don't think there's any appetite within
14:29
Speaker 2: the Albanese government to make cuts.
14:31
Speaker 3: There's no in the upcoming budget.
14:33
Speaker 10: There's no real language of what they call fiscal consolidation.
14:37
Speaker 10: Normally governments have rules. In the past, Australian governments, both
14:41
Speaker 10: Labor and the Coalition have had rules that I'm going
14:43
Speaker 10: to constrain government spending to a certain amount. It's a
14:46
Speaker 10: bit like the Reserve banks two to three percent inflation target.
14:49
Speaker 10: The government will have a rule just to anchor expectations,
14:52
Speaker 10: but they haven't really conformed to that. And the big
14:55
Speaker 10: entitlement programs indis gouals, spending medi care, there's just spending
15:03
Speaker 10: in the economy of this middle class. Entitlement out of
15:07
Speaker 10: control has pushed bigger government and the care economy is
15:12
Speaker 10: low productivity spending. It's dragged down the overall economy's productivity
15:16
Speaker 10: and it's pushed demand beyond supply, and that's what you've got.
15:20
Speaker 10: So at some stage I think the government's got to
15:22
Speaker 10: sort of start facing up to this, that they need
15:25
Speaker 10: to pull back to get this inflation down again.
15:27
Speaker 2: And that's not even to mention many of the vote
15:30
Speaker 2: winners before the last election, you know, paying off Hex's
15:33
Speaker 2: debt and the like, billions and billions of dollars, and
15:35
Speaker 2: you think that doesn't contribute to productivity in any way.
15:39
Speaker 2: I just want to ask you about the fact that
15:41
Speaker 2: this vote today to raise the interest rate the cash rate.
15:44
Speaker 3: Was virtually split.
15:46
Speaker 2: You can assume therefore that the governor might have been
15:49
Speaker 2: the deciding factor if that's the way the votes pound out,
15:52
Speaker 2: If she is the last what does this tell you
15:55
Speaker 2: that it wasn't a unanimous decision to raise the cashret.
15:59
Speaker 10: This idea of publicly revealing that there's a split on
16:03
Speaker 10: the board, this really hasn't happened before in the whole
16:06
Speaker 10: history of monetary policy in Australia. It's the result of
16:08
Speaker 10: the changes to the Reserve Bank Board, the so called
16:11
Speaker 10: reforms that Jim Charms is brought in. Now there's different
16:14
Speaker 10: arguments pro and con that.
16:15
Speaker 3: But what it does show is.
16:17
Speaker 10: The Reserve Bank board is split. The Governor, no doubt made,
16:22
Speaker 10: had the casting vote in all of this. So I
16:24
Speaker 10: think that just increases at the margin a little bit
16:28
Speaker 10: of a question mark about the credibility of the Reserve
16:32
Speaker 10: Bank's commitment to reduce inflation. If the board is split,
16:35
Speaker 10: and presumably they would be, the no votes not to
16:39
Speaker 10: rise would be by some of the board members appointed
16:41
Speaker 10: by the Treasurer.
16:43
Speaker 2: I just want to ask you about the prospect of
16:45
Speaker 2: a recession. We've seen a couple of economists mention it.
16:48
Speaker 2: The Governor was asked about this today. How genuine of
16:52
Speaker 2: a possibility is this?
16:54
Speaker 10: Well, we've got a Middle East war and so anything
16:57
Speaker 10: can sort of happen there. I think the economy overall
17:01
Speaker 10: is not likely to sort of collapse in any way.
17:04
Speaker 10: The job market has been surprisingly strong. There's a lot
17:07
Speaker 10: of demand for jobs in Australia. We've got shortages of
17:09
Speaker 10: so many people from sort of age care to electricians
17:13
Speaker 10: all around the place. So I don't think it'd be
17:16
Speaker 10: like if we get a recession, which they technically two
17:18
Speaker 10: quarters of negative growth or the economy contracting, that conceivably
17:23
Speaker 10: could happen, but it wouldn't be like you know, the
17:26
Speaker 10: old fashion fair di income of a recession where unemployment
17:30
Speaker 10: jumps up to no double digit. I can't really see
17:33
Speaker 10: that happening, but you know, we could get, you know,
17:36
Speaker 10: a significant slow down the economy as part of the
17:38
Speaker 10: cost of now of getting behind on the inflation fight.
17:41
Speaker 2: I suppose in a sense, because Australia was in a
17:44
Speaker 2: per capita recession for so many consecutive quarters, people have
17:48
Speaker 2: anyway felt like they've done it really tough. Basic things
17:52
Speaker 2: are becoming unaffordable for many families.
17:55
Speaker 4: You know.
17:55
Speaker 10: I think this is because really the economy now can
17:57
Speaker 10: only grow by this two percent growth real that's very
18:00
Speaker 10: slow growth. It's like European style welfare state growth. We
18:04
Speaker 10: should be at least three to four percent. And while
18:06
Speaker 10: the economy can only grow by about two percent without
18:09
Speaker 10: hitting inflation, that will show up in the budget because
18:12
Speaker 10: the budget won't repair itself. The budget will get worse,
18:15
Speaker 10: so they'll slow down, will make the budget worse. It'll
18:17
Speaker 10: show up in wages. Growth won't be as strong as
18:21
Speaker 10: people hope. It'll mean inflation keeps bubbling up as you
18:24
Speaker 10: hit supply constraints, and it means interest rates left to
18:27
Speaker 10: stay up. So this will have a disappointing outlook I
18:30
Speaker 10: think for the economy rather than necessarily a deep down term,
18:34
Speaker 10: but it'll at least be disappointing going forward.
18:36
Speaker 2: A lot of what you've spoken about this welfare state
18:39
Speaker 2: style spending, middle income spending and handouts. I mean, this
18:43
Speaker 2: is really the manifestation of a labor government, of a
18:47
Speaker 2: traditional labor government, isn't it.
18:49
Speaker 10: I think you've got this move towards non means tested
18:53
Speaker 10: universal entitlement which extends to the middle class, and the
18:56
Speaker 10: political strategy is to get more of the middle class
18:59
Speaker 10: sort of on government spending. And scholar at Center for
19:02
Speaker 10: Independence Studies Robert Carling has come up with the really
19:05
Speaker 10: quite startling statistic that at least half of voters in
19:09
Speaker 10: Australia now depend on government for at least half their income.
19:13
Speaker 10: So that's reading. I think a culture of.
19:15
Speaker 3: Dependence get voters off this as well.
19:17
Speaker 10: Culture of dependency, and we really need to get some
19:19
Speaker 10: more incentive back into the system.
19:22
Speaker 3: And the problem is that it's popular in elections. That's
19:24
Speaker 3: a difficulty.
19:25
Speaker 2: Michael Stutchbury really appreciate you being with us on this
19:28
Speaker 2: important night.
19:29
Speaker 3: Thank you, thanks ry.
19:31
Speaker 11: Well.
19:31
Speaker 2: In breaking news tonight, Israel has confirmed it has killed
19:35
Speaker 2: the commander of Iran's Bazzis unit, Golam Rezzi Solomani. The
19:41
Speaker 2: Buzzis are the main arm that the regime uses to
19:44
Speaker 2: oppress its citizens. So this man that they have confirmed
19:48
Speaker 2: they've killed was one of the key drivers behind the
19:51
Speaker 2: murder of tens of thousands of innocent Iranians during the
19:56
Speaker 2: recent protests. Israel has also reportedly targeted top Iranian security
20:01
Speaker 2: official Urri Larijani in an Israeli air strike. Now, he's
20:06
Speaker 2: a leading figure in the regime and would be the
20:08
Speaker 2: most senior Iranian official to be killed if he has been,
20:13
Speaker 2: and that is unverified. We just know he's been targeted.
20:16
Speaker 2: But if that is true, it would be he would
20:19
Speaker 2: be the most senior to be killed since Ayatola Kamine.
20:22
Speaker 2: Now this is major news. I'm going to ask Sharen
20:24
Speaker 2: Haskell about this about his condition in just a moment.
20:28
Speaker 2: She's standing by this, as President Trump says, and nobody
20:31
Speaker 2: knows for sure whether Around's new Supreme Leader, Moshtaba Kamene
20:36
Speaker 2: is even alive.
20:38
Speaker 12: A lot of people are saying that he's badly disfigured,
20:42
Speaker 12: they're saying that he lost his leg, one leg, and
20:46
Speaker 12: he's been hurt very badly. Other people are saying he's dead.
20:52
Speaker 12: Nobody's saying he's one hundred percent healthy.
20:56
Speaker 2: Arab nations are reportedly urging Trump not to end the
20:59
Speaker 2: war until the job is done. The UAE temporarily shut
21:04
Speaker 2: its airspace after incoming Iranian missiles and drones, and a
21:08
Speaker 2: drone incident sparked a fuel tank fire near Dubai's airport.
21:12
Speaker 2: The US Embassy in Baghdad has also come under its
21:15
Speaker 2: most intense attack yet, with reports of drones and rockets
21:19
Speaker 2: targeting the compound overnight. Iraqi officials say this was the
21:23
Speaker 2: heaviest assault since the war began in Israel has carried
21:27
Speaker 2: out extensive simultaneous strikes in Tehran and Beirut overnight. Meanwhile,
21:33
Speaker 2: Ukrainian President Voladimir Zelenski has publicly declared that Russia has
21:39
Speaker 2: been supplying Iran with drones.
21:43
Speaker 3: Russia gave.
21:45
Speaker 11: Drones already the Shahis. I have one hundred percent facts
21:51
Speaker 11: that they, the Iranian regime used against our American basis
22:00
Speaker 11: and against all in Middle East, I mean and Middle
22:04
Speaker 11: East neighbors of Iran.
22:07
Speaker 2: And Israel's Deputy Foreign Minister, Sharen Haskell, joins me Now
22:10
Speaker 2: Live for an exclusive interview. Sharen, there's breaking news tonight
22:15
Speaker 2: that the head of the Bazige unit has been killed.
22:19
Speaker 3: Can you tell us about this.
22:21
Speaker 13: Yes, it's just been confirmed a few minutes ago that
22:25
Speaker 13: he was eliminated. And Charry exactly as you said. This
22:29
Speaker 13: is a person that had hundreds of thousands, if not more,
22:33
Speaker 13: of lives on his hands. The besiege is one of
22:37
Speaker 13: the cruelest torourist, you know, fanatical kind of forces that
22:45
Speaker 13: have tortured, massacre, rape, many many Iranians. I mean, this
22:50
Speaker 13: is a very very good news, especially for Iranians in
22:56
Speaker 13: Iran as well. And I think that when President Trump
22:59
Speaker 13: and Prime Minister and now said we are trying to
23:02
Speaker 13: pave a path for the Iranian people to finally liberate themselves,
23:08
Speaker 13: those are the type of people, you know, who who
23:12
Speaker 13: needs to be eliminated. There's also a growing, uh growing
23:19
Speaker 13: suspicious or growing assessment of the elimination of you know,
23:25
Speaker 13: the head of the Iranian forces. And and and I
23:31
Speaker 13: think that this coming into a trend or a strategy
23:38
Speaker 13: in the last few days and we see how it
23:41
Speaker 13: actually how it actually cracks. It creates many, many cracks
23:47
Speaker 13: within the IRG forces, which can I just interrupt.
23:50
Speaker 2: Your apologies apologies to just interrupt you. We just have
23:54
Speaker 2: some more major breaking news that Israeli media is now
23:58
Speaker 2: reporting that lari Jani has been.
24:02
Speaker 3: Killed, that he is dead.
24:04
Speaker 2: This is according to breaking Israeli media reports. Sharan, have
24:09
Speaker 2: you got confirmation about this? So, Ali Ari lari Jani,
24:13
Speaker 2: just to remind our viewers, is the most senior Iranian
24:17
Speaker 2: security official in around Sharan, firstly, have you got confirmation
24:21
Speaker 2: that he has been killed? And secondly can you tell
24:24
Speaker 2: us what his role has been in the Iranian regime?
24:29
Speaker 13: Well, look, this is one of the highest commander commander forces.
24:35
Speaker 13: Before I came to the interview, and this was just
24:38
Speaker 13: a few minutes before I checked, we didn't have a
24:42
Speaker 13: final confirmation, but the assessments here in Israel are that
24:46
Speaker 13: he was eliminated. And you need to understand that in
24:50
Speaker 13: that pattern, especially of the last few days of breaking,
24:55
Speaker 13: you know, the actual regime's backbone, we see all all
25:00
Speaker 13: of the cracks that are already happening.
25:01
Speaker 2: We've just got a pause from Sharen Haskell there, but
25:07
Speaker 2: until she comes back, this is the most significant news
25:11
Speaker 2: since the death of Supreme Leader Ayatola Kamena. If it
25:15
Speaker 2: is confirmed, and it looks like it is that Ari
25:17
Speaker 2: Larijani has been killed, this Iranians will be celebrating both
25:23
Speaker 2: his demise and that of the besieged leader responsible for
25:27
Speaker 2: the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranian All right, Sharen,
25:30
Speaker 2: we have you back with us. Yeah, you were cut
25:34
Speaker 2: out for just a moment. Now, I just want to
25:37
Speaker 2: ask you about the condition. We've had these two very
25:39
Speaker 2: significant deaths tonight. This is a major coup for the
25:43
Speaker 2: United States and for israel I. Just also want to
25:46
Speaker 2: ask you about what you know about the condition of
25:49
Speaker 2: Moshtaba Kamena. It's been reported that he was injured in
25:53
Speaker 2: the same strike as his father. President Trump said today
25:57
Speaker 2: that there are some reports that he's dead, others that
26:01
Speaker 2: he's severely injured.
26:02
Speaker 3: What can you tell.
26:03
Speaker 13: Us, So, we have reports that he's been severely injured,
26:09
Speaker 13: but not a lot of information have surfaced then, and
26:13
Speaker 13: that's why there's certain certain people who actually assessed that
26:16
Speaker 13: he may have been eliminated as well. But you know,
26:20
Speaker 13: someone who was disappointed as the head of this fanatical regime,
26:27
Speaker 13: you know, the ridiculous cardboard figure that they've actually put
26:32
Speaker 13: up in his inauguration show that our assessments are quite
26:36
Speaker 13: close to a severe damage or severe injuries as well,
26:41
Speaker 13: I really hope. And it seems like the Iranian regime
26:45
Speaker 13: is at a breaking point. They cannot provide any pictures
26:49
Speaker 13: of him, any any videos of him actually being alive
26:54
Speaker 13: walking around or you know, or not being severely injured,
26:59
Speaker 13: able to commune Kate, and it creates a huge damage
27:02
Speaker 13: to the regime and it shows us the signs that
27:06
Speaker 13: here they will come a time in hopefully the very
27:11
Speaker 13: near future for the Iranian people to start rising up
27:15
Speaker 13: to take back the power to regain their freedom.
27:20
Speaker 2: Sharen, can you tell us anything about the strikes in
27:23
Speaker 2: which both Golambresa Solomoni and Ari Larijani were targeted? Can
27:31
Speaker 2: you tell us where they were? Were they at the
27:33
Speaker 2: IIGC head headquarters? Were they at home the hour which
27:39
Speaker 2: this happened? Is there any more information you're able to
27:41
Speaker 2: publicly share with us.
27:44
Speaker 13: What I can share is that yesterday and last night
27:47
Speaker 13: was the huge operation in targeting specifically officials and key
27:53
Speaker 13: points at the Iranian regime. After we've seen a few
27:57
Speaker 13: days ago a crap in the regime starting to break down.
28:03
Speaker 13: I think this operation was mainly to try and create
28:06
Speaker 13: a massive blow to the leadership that is still in
28:09
Speaker 13: command to make sure that the crap is severe enough.
28:14
Speaker 13: And I think, you know, this is an extremely extremely
28:18
Speaker 13: positive outcome the war and this operation is going very
28:24
Speaker 13: very well. And I think President Trump also reiterated it
28:28
Speaker 13: and said that yesterday, and these are the back of
28:31
Speaker 13: the proofs for what is actually saying.
28:35
Speaker 3: Yeah, Trump said it is going well.
28:37
Speaker 2: He's repeatedly said that the US and Israel are winning.
28:41
Speaker 2: Yet we have seen that Iran is still firing missiles
28:44
Speaker 2: both against Israel also Arab nations. So this indicates there
28:48
Speaker 2: is still a way to go in the war. How
28:50
Speaker 2: much longer do you think this will take?
28:53
Speaker 3: This war?
28:55
Speaker 13: Look, we can't put an exact date because we look
28:58
Speaker 13: from the target and you know, with looking on the
29:03
Speaker 13: targets and where the assessment is roughly around fifty percent
29:08
Speaker 13: of the launchers, we've reduced massively the amount of ballistic
29:12
Speaker 13: missiles and drones that they are actually using. We see
29:16
Speaker 13: here in Israel and in the Arab neighboring countries as
29:19
Speaker 13: well as much as there are still quite a few attacks,
29:23
Speaker 13: there's a huge reduction in the amount that are actually
29:27
Speaker 13: being sent. We are hoping that, you know, and this
29:31
Speaker 13: is part also of the targets that were targeted in
29:34
Speaker 13: recent days to eliminate a lot of their storage as
29:38
Speaker 13: well and the factories who are producing it. And you know,
29:43
Speaker 13: the American forces, the Israeli forces have been doing such
29:47
Speaker 13: a brilliant work in eliminating it that the overall backlog
29:55
Speaker 13: that they actually have, you know, has been dramatically, dramatically reduced.
30:01
Speaker 2: Sure, and Haskel really appreciate you joining us live. I
30:05
Speaker 2: was going to ask you about Grace Tayne, but breaking
30:07
Speaker 2: news events overtook it and.
30:09
Speaker 3: They are good news. Indeed, thank you very much.
30:14
Speaker 2: Well with Ozzie is now dealing with petrol pain and
30:17
Speaker 2: rate pain. Economist Shane Oliver will join us a bit
30:20
Speaker 2: later to cut through the government's economic spin, and an
30:23
Speaker 2: investigation has uncovered the true identity of street artist Banksy.
30:27
Speaker 2: I'll bring you all the details plus any more breaking
30:30
Speaker 2: news about how these operations unfolded after the break.
30:38
Speaker 3: Welcome back.
30:39
Speaker 2: In returning to the breaking news, Israel's Defense Minister Israel
30:42
Speaker 2: Katz has now confirmed that Urri Larry JOHNI has been killed.
30:47
Speaker 2: We're also getting a bit more information out about these operations.
30:51
Speaker 2: So golom Reza Solomoni, the head of the Islamic Revolutionary
30:56
Speaker 2: Guard Cause Besij paramilitary militia, was targeted along with his
31:01
Speaker 2: deputy in a makeshift tent area that they had set
31:05
Speaker 2: up after the headquarters.
31:07
Speaker 3: Was targeted in a strike. So they were both killed.
31:10
Speaker 2: Both Solomony and his deputy were killed in their makeshift
31:14
Speaker 2: tempt tent.
31:16
Speaker 3: The military.
31:17
Speaker 2: The IDF has also announced that it killed the IRGC's
31:20
Speaker 2: aerospace false chief. So these are some major senior officials
31:25
Speaker 2: that tonight have been taken out by Israel and America.
31:29
Speaker 3: Big news.
31:30
Speaker 2: All right, Let's get back to Grace tame I brought
31:32
Speaker 2: you her comments last night, and she's been under fire
31:35
Speaker 2: today after she described women who were raped on October
31:39
Speaker 2: seven as propaganda. Let's hear those comments again.
31:43
Speaker 8: Timney's texted in saying, can you please ask Grace why
31:47
Speaker 8: she's selective in her outrage? She says, I've never heard
31:50
Speaker 8: her condemn or speak out on behalf of the Israeli
31:52
Speaker 8: women who were raped and killed by Hamas on October seven?
31:56
Speaker 8: Have you spoken about that? Have you expressed outrage about that.
31:59
Speaker 4: I'm not going to sink to the level of entertaining
32:02
Speaker 4: any kind of propaganda Hamish.
32:05
Speaker 8: What's the product included in that question?
32:09
Speaker 14: Those things have been debunked.
32:12
Speaker 2: It seems it's believe all women except for Jewish women.
32:16
Speaker 2: Or to discuss, let's bringing our former Labor chief of
32:19
Speaker 2: Staff Camerra Milner and former Liberal Senator Holly Hughes. Great
32:22
Speaker 2: to see you both, Holly. This is beyond disturbing.
32:27
Speaker 15: Look, I have to say I never liked Grace Tame.
32:29
Speaker 15: I've never liked her behavior. I think she's always behaved
32:32
Speaker 15: like a petulant child. The way that she conducted herself
32:35
Speaker 15: when she was invited to the lodge and behaved with
32:37
Speaker 15: Scott Morrison, the T shirt that she wore that she
32:40
Speaker 15: was back at the lodge with Albanzi. I think this
32:43
Speaker 15: is just proven she's not only a rude, petulant child,
32:46
Speaker 15: she is absolutely stupid as well.
32:48
Speaker 3: And that's my opinion.
32:50
Speaker 15: But I mean the fact that she denied the rape
32:53
Speaker 15: of those women when hermas themselves were filming and is
32:58
Speaker 15: a stupidity at a level that is all most incomprehensible.
33:01
Speaker 15: She needs to be saved from herself she needs to
33:03
Speaker 15: resign from her foundation.
33:05
Speaker 3: It appears that most of the sponsors.
33:07
Speaker 15: So they're only got dead anyway, and then she needs
33:11
Speaker 15: to take herself off somewhere else and have a good
33:13
Speaker 15: think about things because she is just proven to be
33:17
Speaker 15: not up to representing Australians as a former Australian of
33:21
Speaker 15: the Year.
33:22
Speaker 2: The problem was it was a soft interview on the ABC. Cameron,
33:25
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister, didn't condemn her in any strong way
33:30
Speaker 2: after she called to globalize the anti FATA even in Sydney.
33:33
Speaker 3: I mean that's the issue, isn't it. Not only what
33:36
Speaker 3: she said.
33:36
Speaker 2: But the fact that the left, Pennywong and Alban Easy
33:39
Speaker 2: don't condemn people who say racist comments.
33:45
Speaker 16: Well, and Tame's just disgraced herself again. I mean, this
33:47
Speaker 16: is appalling and it's sad to watch. I mean, she
33:49
Speaker 16: needs to be a voice for people who would suffered
33:51
Speaker 16: sexual violence. Now she's a megaphone for hate and prejudic
33:55
Speaker 16: any Semitism. Sarah, it's disgusting and yes, you're right. I
33:58
Speaker 16: mean the Left can't absolve the fact that you know,
34:01
Speaker 16: women were horribly raped by her masks, and it doesn't
34:04
Speaker 16: excuse the fact that if it was a leavic terrorist.
34:06
Speaker 16: You can't be a rapist. And that's the sort of
34:09
Speaker 16: you know, the rape denihalism that you see for grace,
34:12
Speaker 16: tame and from some of the left have not called
34:14
Speaker 16: it out, have not called out, who have not wanted
34:16
Speaker 16: to watch the evidence, have not want to go to
34:18
Speaker 16: the scenes and actually see what happened. That's the disgrace
34:22
Speaker 16: to the left. That's the scourge of the left who
34:24
Speaker 16: don't want to acknowledge exactly what her mass is doing
34:27
Speaker 16: and what Islamic terrorism does, especially to women.
34:30
Speaker 2: I want to turn to the issue of rising petrol
34:33
Speaker 2: prices wholly. They've already risen forty percent in some suburbs.
34:38
Speaker 2: And this is when we're being told that there hasn't
34:40
Speaker 2: yet been a.
34:40
Speaker 3: Technical we haven't felt the impacts.
34:42
Speaker 2: Yes, well, there's not a technical supplying issue yet.
34:46
Speaker 3: So this is only going to.
34:47
Speaker 15: Get worse, absolutely, And the problem is the inflation is
34:51
Speaker 15: sort of this insidious tax that impacts everybody, and this
34:56
Speaker 15: is just going to keep growing. And the reality is
34:58
Speaker 15: the cost of absolutely everything is going to increase. So
35:01
Speaker 15: it's not just the fuel that's going to increase, but
35:04
Speaker 15: it is the cost of getting supplies into supermarkets. It's
35:08
Speaker 15: the cost of farmers and the agriculture sector if they
35:11
Speaker 15: can even get the diesel to put the plants in
35:13
Speaker 15: so that we have a winter crop. So a lot
35:15
Speaker 15: of this will not even be felt for another four
35:18
Speaker 15: to six months, when those crops, or that cattle or
35:22
Speaker 15: those lambs should be hitting the supermarket shelves. The cost
35:27
Speaker 15: to get them there is going to be out of control.
35:29
Speaker 15: We don't have the fertilizer. This is going to have
35:32
Speaker 15: ongoing impacts and this government is proving yet again it
35:36
Speaker 15: is completely out of its depth.
35:38
Speaker 3: Cameron.
35:39
Speaker 2: Everyone's talking about the increase in diesel and other fuel prices.
35:43
Speaker 2: How do you think the Prime Minister's handled it this week?
35:47
Speaker 16: Oh terribly And you know, an Australian motors the nine
35:50
Speaker 16: worst words they can hear is we're from the Albanese government.
35:53
Speaker 16: We're here to help for goodness sake. For goodness sake,
35:56
Speaker 16: I mean, this is a national disgrace. We should be
36:00
Speaker 16: much bed prepared. We're an island nation at the very
36:02
Speaker 16: end of the supply chain. Both sides of politics have
36:05
Speaker 16: been running our refining capacity down and hoping that someone
36:07
Speaker 16: else would catch up with it. Surely, surely now we
36:10
Speaker 16: need sovereign capacity back. We need more oil and gas
36:13
Speaker 16: being discovered and exploited and extracted out in Australia and
36:16
Speaker 16: refined here. We need to be responsible for our own sovereignty,
36:19
Speaker 16: in our own security, and that's a huge wake up call.
36:22
Speaker 16: I'm not surprised that people are out there looking after
36:25
Speaker 16: their families, looking after their businesses and getting fuel while
36:27
Speaker 16: it's still available.
36:29
Speaker 2: We saw Holly that resolve Poe I spoke about it
36:32
Speaker 2: earlier in the show. In the Herald today it actually
36:36
Speaker 2: shows that voters are blaming the government forty percent more
36:40
Speaker 2: than global factors seventeen percent.
36:42
Speaker 15: Well, I think as the Australian voters are really starting
36:45
Speaker 15: to wake up to how ineffective and out of its
36:47
Speaker 15: step this government is. And you know Jim Charmers.
36:51
Speaker 3: Every time that.
36:52
Speaker 15: Man appears on television, I mean I want to throw
36:56
Speaker 15: something at it, because it's never his fault. The thing
37:00
Speaker 15: is this man's fault when inflation.
37:02
Speaker 3: You're frustrated, Puntina, I am.
37:05
Speaker 15: You know what, I am, a frustrated small business owner
37:09
Speaker 15: who's facing these issues day in day out. I mean
37:13
Speaker 15: only today we got an email. Don't start me on
37:15
Speaker 15: Chris Min's adding another public holiday in April, because how
37:18
Speaker 15: a business is supposed to afford those things. But you know,
37:21
Speaker 15: we saw a slight drop in inflation and Jim Chalmers
37:24
Speaker 15: was out there patting himself on the back and lad,
37:26
Speaker 15: you know, declaring that the economic strategy he employed was working.
37:31
Speaker 15: And now when things turn around, never his fault, everybody
37:35
Speaker 15: else's Cameron.
37:36
Speaker 2: The interest rate rise today, is that going to impact
37:39
Speaker 2: on the government or will they get away with blaming
37:42
Speaker 2: global factors.
37:44
Speaker 16: No, I don't think they will because everyone's seeing it.
37:46
Speaker 16: To your point earlier in the program, there's been a
37:48
Speaker 16: per capita recession for years now in Australia. You know,
37:50
Speaker 16: people have been going backwards. People know the pain of
37:52
Speaker 16: the cost of living crisis, you know, and I almost
37:55
Speaker 16: photo alb and he's out the last election because of it.
37:58
Speaker 16: So no, I mean, people have been hurting for a
37:59
Speaker 16: long time, and I think they do blame domestic leadership.
38:02
Speaker 16: They do blame the failure of the Albanize government to
38:04
Speaker 16: actually brings through proper reform to drive our economy. So
38:08
Speaker 16: that's exactly what I mean. They're not going to brain
38:10
Speaker 16: blame the iatoler, you know, the dead iaotoler. They're going
38:13
Speaker 16: to blame.
38:13
Speaker 2: Albo exactly, all right, Well to this fascinating story very quickly,
38:18
Speaker 2: a bit of a change of pace. Writers the news
38:21
Speaker 2: agency claims to have finally cracked one of the greatest
38:24
Speaker 2: mysteries in modern art. They've identified Banksy. Now, if you're
38:29
Speaker 2: wondering who banks is, he was the artist who did
38:32
Speaker 2: that famous image of the girl with the balloon flying
38:36
Speaker 2: up into the air. So the Writers has identified Banksy
38:39
Speaker 2: as Bristol born Robin Gunningham, who has now changed his
38:44
Speaker 2: name to one of the most common in the UK,
38:47
Speaker 2: David Jones. Now their trail round from war ravaged Ukraine
38:51
Speaker 2: to court records in New York. Banksy's lawyer responded by
38:55
Speaker 2: saying that publishing his name creates a safety risk.
39:00
Speaker 3: What do you think about this?
39:01
Speaker 2: Should they have left his anonymity alone, given there could
39:05
Speaker 2: apparently be as security risk.
39:06
Speaker 15: Well, I don't know what sort of security risk they're
39:09
Speaker 15: talking about, but I found that article just extraordinary. It's
39:13
Speaker 15: very long, it was quite the rate, but I sort
39:17
Speaker 15: of never understood how he had monetized what in an
39:21
Speaker 15: effect is graffiti, you know, and it's on public buildings.
39:27
Speaker 15: So apparently they just sell prints a certain limited number
39:30
Speaker 15: edition of prints. And then there's obviously people who do
39:34
Speaker 15: know who he is because he holds private art showings
39:38
Speaker 15: and sells his art at them. So yeah, it's all
39:42
Speaker 15: very very odd.
39:43
Speaker 2: And the works, these works self are tens of millions
39:46
Speaker 2: of dollars, some of them camera and I mean, without
39:48
Speaker 2: going into too much detail, but in one of them
39:50
Speaker 2: he sold a work and then it had this self
39:52
Speaker 2: destructive mechanism.
39:55
Speaker 3: It was fabulous, exactly it was.
39:58
Speaker 16: But look, I think the art's great. I mean, I
40:00
Speaker 16: think it's it's politically political dissent, it's commentary, but it's
40:04
Speaker 16: done really, really well. And I hope he stays anonymous
40:07
Speaker 16: because I like the mystery of it quite frankly, and
40:09
Speaker 16: I think the art is great.
40:10
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's always a bit of fun when there's mystery
40:12
Speaker 3: in literature or art. All right, Holly, thanks great to
40:16
Speaker 3: see both.
40:17
Speaker 4: Thank you.
40:18
Speaker 3: Still to come.
40:19
Speaker 2: The coalition panic over one nation, head of the South
40:22
Speaker 2: Australia election and the Pharaoh by election. Plus why the
40:26
Speaker 2: Albanzi government fumbles when asked if we'll run out of petrol?
40:30
Speaker 3: That's next?
40:35
Speaker 2: Well, just a year ago inflation looked like it was
40:37
Speaker 2: back under control, but it got out of hand, and
40:40
Speaker 2: tonight there are criticisms both of the RBA and the
40:44
Speaker 2: Albanzi government and Johnny mi now is AMP chief economist
40:48
Speaker 2: Shane Oliver, Shane, thanks so much for your time. Look,
40:52
Speaker 2: starting with the RBA, do you think there is some
40:54
Speaker 2: merit to the claim that they've misjudged the inflation threat?
41:01
Speaker 1: I guess in hindsight you can make that claim.
41:04
Speaker 4: Last year they used rates, and mind you, I supported
41:07
Speaker 4: that and thought that they could go further. But as
41:09
Speaker 4: it turned out, inflation picked up quite quickly through the
41:12
Speaker 4: second half, and I think in that sense, we all
41:15
Speaker 4: underestimated the capacity constraints in the economy. And in that
41:20
Speaker 4: context this concept that if you see a pick up
41:24
Speaker 4: in demand in the private sector, it was going to
41:27
Speaker 4: bump up against high levels of public demand. I don't
41:30
Speaker 4: think most economists appreciated the depth of that problem, and
41:34
Speaker 4: that led to the situation we saw through the second
41:37
Speaker 4: half of last year where we did see a nice
41:39
Speaker 4: pickup in consumer spending, business investment, housing investment.
41:44
Speaker 1: They were all the.
41:44
Speaker 4: Sort of things we want to see, and of course
41:47
Speaker 4: that immediately bumped up against high levels of public spending
41:50
Speaker 4: to create a situation where demand in the overall economy
41:53
Speaker 4: or aggregate demand was too high relative to the economies
41:58
Speaker 4: to potential to meet that demand. Of course, that then
42:00
Speaker 4: showed up as higher inflation.
42:03
Speaker 2: The governor pointed out today that inflation was already rising
42:08
Speaker 2: before the war on a run. So you know, government
42:12
Speaker 2: spending a key issue.
42:13
Speaker 3: Is that the main issue?
42:16
Speaker 4: I don't think it's the main issue. I think the
42:17
Speaker 4: two key issues here. One is that we had a
42:21
Speaker 4: fairly modest pick up in private demand. That was something
42:23
Speaker 4: we wanted to see and that was I guess the
42:25
Speaker 4: surprise in the second half of last year. But the
42:28
Speaker 4: problem is it bumped up against record higher levels of
42:31
Speaker 4: public spending. And in other words, the public sector spending
42:36
Speaker 4: being so high at around twenty eight percent of GDP
42:39
Speaker 4: in the National accounts and the GDP figure, so that's
42:42
Speaker 4: a record high. You've got to go I think back
42:44
Speaker 4: to World War two to see a number higher than that.
42:46
Speaker 4: That's kind of exceptional. But that means that that public
42:50
Speaker 4: spending is competing with the private sector. So that was
42:53
Speaker 4: the first problem that you ended up with excessive overall
42:57
Speaker 4: demand because of record levels of public spending. The second problem,
43:01
Speaker 4: of course, is the lack of productivity growth in the economy,
43:04
Speaker 4: and that's that constrains the supply side of the economy.
43:08
Speaker 4: So you know you've got a demand, you got supply
43:11
Speaker 4: demand picked up very high levels of public spending at
43:14
Speaker 4: the same time, and then of course that all bumped
43:17
Speaker 4: up against capacity constraints in the economy. And the reason
43:20
Speaker 4: we have those capacity constraints, I think, is because we've
43:24
Speaker 4: just overregulated the economy. Our tax system is not working
43:28
Speaker 4: as it should be, there's not enough competition, all those
43:31
Speaker 4: sorts of issues that economists have been talking about now
43:33
Speaker 4: for the last decade that really needs to be looked at.
43:36
Speaker 4: We really need to go back to an era like
43:38
Speaker 4: we saw in the eighties and the nineties and the
43:40
Speaker 4: two thousands, where we were constantly working to make the
43:44
Speaker 4: economy more competitive, making it easier for businesses to start up,
43:48
Speaker 4: making it easier for developers to supply new homes. So
43:51
Speaker 4: they're the sort of problems we had. We had a
43:53
Speaker 4: demand problem because of too much public spending, and then
43:57
Speaker 4: we had a lack of supply at the same time.
44:01
Speaker 2: Just finally, global oil prices, I mean they're moving around
44:05
Speaker 2: a bit, but sitting around one hundred US dollars a barrel.
44:08
Speaker 2: If the Strait of Homus remains effectively closed. How's this
44:12
Speaker 2: going to impact on inflation here in Australia.
44:15
Speaker 1: Well, it's quite mechanical.
44:16
Speaker 4: Roughly speaking, each one dollar rise in the world will
44:20
Speaker 4: price adds about a center letter at the petrol pump
44:23
Speaker 4: in Australia. Already we've seen petrol prices rise from something
44:28
Speaker 4: like a dollar sixty nine on average per liter through February.
44:32
Speaker 4: They're currently on motor Mouth where I'm looking at the
44:35
Speaker 4: prices for yesterday around two dollars twenty nine.
44:38
Speaker 1: So that's a massive increase.
44:39
Speaker 4: It's about a thirty five percent increase, and that's on
44:42
Speaker 4: the back of the rise in world all prices, if anything,
44:44
Speaker 4: has run a little bit ahead of that. But that
44:48
Speaker 4: in turn adds about one percent to inflation. So it's
44:51
Speaker 4: quite mechanical. The most recent inflation number is three point
44:54
Speaker 4: eight percent. That's the year to date to January. You
44:57
Speaker 4: add one percent one point one percent of that, you're
45:00
Speaker 4: bumping up against five percent quite easily. And obviously if
45:03
Speaker 4: the world or price goes even higher than you add
45:06
Speaker 4: on to that as well.
45:07
Speaker 3: What very worrying. Shane Oliver.
45:09
Speaker 2: I appreciate your time, thank you so much, and let's
45:12
Speaker 2: bring in now National's MP Michael McCornack, who's a Shadow
45:17
Speaker 2: Minister for Water and Veterans Affairs. Thank you for your time. Look,
45:21
Speaker 2: One Nation is posing a risk to the Nationals and
45:24
Speaker 2: the Coalition both in South Australia election this weekend and
45:29
Speaker 2: also the upcoming Pharah by election.
45:31
Speaker 3: In early May. How worried are you about this? Oh?
45:37
Speaker 17: Look, I'm much more worried about what the risk that
45:39
Speaker 17: labor is posing to the Australian economy and to Australian
45:43
Speaker 17: families and small businesses.
45:45
Speaker 14: They are much much bigger threat than One Nation. I
45:47
Speaker 14: have to say.
45:48
Speaker 17: We've got an outstanding candidate in Brad Robertson in Farah.
45:53
Speaker 17: Former Army colonel, he's twenty nine years in uniform, protected
45:57
Speaker 17: Australia and protected Australians now wants to protect the people
46:01
Speaker 17: of the Pharaoh for their health services, the people of
46:05
Speaker 17: Pharaoh for their water rights.
46:07
Speaker 14: And he's out on the ground.
46:09
Speaker 17: He's talking about border manufacturing which he has been involved in.
46:12
Speaker 17: He's talking about the Cancer Care Center which he has
46:14
Speaker 17: been chairman of the trust of. And he brings a
46:17
Speaker 17: wealth of experience. He's just a sort of candidate that
46:19
Speaker 17: the people of Pharah needs.
46:21
Speaker 2: I mean you just say, then you're more worried about
46:23
Speaker 2: labor than one nation. But that's not true. One nation
46:27
Speaker 2: is eating into your vote. What does the coalition need
46:30
Speaker 2: to do to counter this?
46:34
Speaker 17: Well, we've had a reset, I think, Sherry, we've certainly
46:38
Speaker 17: had a refresh. Matt Canavan has taken over the National Party.
46:42
Speaker 17: Angus Taylor is now in charge of the Liberal Party.
46:44
Speaker 17: I think they bring a level of excitement and opportunity
46:47
Speaker 17: that we haven't had for a while. People are talking
46:50
Speaker 17: about the coalition. We're getting our policies certainly out there sorted.
46:56
Speaker 14: I mean we had Matt Canavan talking about the work
46:58
Speaker 14: for home.
46:59
Speaker 17: That's something I know was rejected by the Coalition of
47:03
Speaker 17: thoughts at the last election.
47:04
Speaker 14: We didn't explain it well enough.
47:06
Speaker 17: Certainly, what he's been saying is resonating and certainly hitting
47:10
Speaker 17: the right chords and the right notes.
47:13
Speaker 14: It's right across the regional Australia.
47:15
Speaker 3: Yes, so let's go to that.
47:16
Speaker 2: So he wants to make it easier for public servants
47:19
Speaker 2: to work from home in the regions, it's obvious the
47:22
Speaker 2: precise opposite of the policy that Jane Hume was said
47:25
Speaker 2: to be the architect of that you took to the
47:28
Speaker 2: last election. So this would help people in the bush,
47:34
Speaker 2: no question, wouldn't.
47:35
Speaker 17: It oh well to help people in my elector Charry,
47:38
Speaker 17: my electorate in circles almost certainly one side of Canberra.
47:42
Speaker 17: I've got a lot of camera public servants who like
47:45
Speaker 17: to work in Canberra. But Libby in Wee jasperin, Yes,
47:48
Speaker 17: in Maaron Bateman in even in Brookballan in the Upper
47:52
Speaker 17: Lapland Shire. They want to live in biyl On Bounding
47:55
Speaker 17: for all the good reasons why it is fantastic to
47:58
Speaker 17: be in regional Australia but still have the ability to
48:02
Speaker 17: work in Caverrig. They could actually work from home a
48:06
Speaker 17: couple of days a week, if not a bit more.
48:08
Speaker 17: Then that's going to say them fuel goodness, gracious, we
48:11
Speaker 17: know people want to be able.
48:12
Speaker 14: To save on fuel ese days, but also just.
48:16
Speaker 17: The time and the drudgery of having to drive into Candra,
48:19
Speaker 17: even if it's just the Maurra bat it's still three
48:21
Speaker 17: quarters of an hour most days, and so that gives
48:23
Speaker 17: them the freeing up ability their time to be spending
48:27
Speaker 17: with family, with children, fearing them to sport and dancing
48:31
Speaker 17: and all those sorts of things, rather than going up
48:33
Speaker 17: and down the Barton Highway, which.
48:35
Speaker 14: Labors promised to duplicate it still hasn't.
48:39
Speaker 2: We've literally got thirty seconds. What are petrol prices like
48:42
Speaker 2: in Wogga Wolga.
48:45
Speaker 17: Well, two dollars seventy nine A leader for diesel at
48:48
Speaker 17: the moment, gunder Guy's three dollars.
48:50
Speaker 14: I had Layne Lewis on the phone to me at
48:52
Speaker 14: a farmer tonight.
48:53
Speaker 17: He spent an extra three hundred dollars just faring some
48:55
Speaker 17: goats down to the Abertuarre at Myrtleford from Coolman today.
48:59
Speaker 17: These are the sort of stories that are really hurting
49:02
Speaker 17: regional Australias, and Swayne Lewis is just one of many
49:05
Speaker 17: who contacted.
49:06
Speaker 2: The sigh enough enough, yeah, Michael McCormack, thanks for joining us,
49:12
Speaker 2: appreciate your time. That's all we've got time for tonight.
49:14
Speaker 2: I'll see you tomorrow at eight and Paul Murray will
49:17
Speaker 2: be here after the break