Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFC South Betting Preview
Transcript
- 0:08Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
- 0:13Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. I am Chadmullman,
- 0:16Speaker 1: Chief Content Officer of the Action Network. We are continuing
- 0:20Speaker 1: our divisional series preview today. We are talking NFC South
- 0:26Speaker 1: and I'm going to do it with my bff, my companion,
- 0:31Speaker 1: my compadre professional letter Simon Hunter Ello Simeon.
- 0:40Speaker 2: Everyone loves the NFC South Chat. What a great show
- 0:42Speaker 2: we're going to have today.
- 0:44Speaker 1: So a couple couple of housekeeping things, and then I
- 0:46Speaker 1: will tell you a funny story. Number one, big big
- 0:51Speaker 1: news everyone knows who listens to this show, and then
- 0:54Speaker 1: new listeners to the show will understand that the backbone
- 0:59Speaker 1: for this show is during the season on Tuesdays and Thursdays,
- 1:03Speaker 1: in addition to our foxhold bed, our big Balls bet
- 1:06Speaker 1: of the Week, our executive decision our Simon says, the
- 1:09Speaker 1: whole concentration and focuses the show is Simon and I
- 1:14Speaker 1: debating the five best bets we like the most and
- 1:18Speaker 1: coming to a consensus from his point of view and
- 1:20Speaker 1: my point of view on which five bets we're going
- 1:23Speaker 1: to put into the season long contest that we always
- 1:26Speaker 1: enter that is nationwide in which we can win a
- 1:31Speaker 1: shit ton of money if we do well. We every
- 1:34Speaker 1: year we have done incredibly well, but every year everyone
- 1:37Speaker 1: else is doing incredibly well too. That's how competitive these
- 1:40Speaker 1: contests are. So we have finished in the money, but
- 1:43Speaker 1: the last two years we finished with incredible records, just
- 1:46Speaker 1: finished out of the money. We've always wanted to host
- 1:49Speaker 1: a contest ourselves and let our listeners play along with us,
- 1:54Speaker 1: have a chance to win massive, massive prizing and compete
- 1:58Speaker 1: with me and Simon right, so you can see how
- 2:00Speaker 1: you're doing against us in the process of this whole thing.
- 2:03Speaker 1: So fortunately we will be having a contest this year.
- 2:10Speaker 1: We will be hosting it ourselves. There will be big
- 2:14Speaker 1: money prizes we will be doing We will be doing
- 2:17Speaker 1: it in conjunction with our friends at Bet three sixty five,
- 2:20Speaker 1: who are sponsors at the show. We're super pumped. More
- 2:23Speaker 1: details on that to come before we get to the
- 2:26Speaker 1: beginning of the season, but we are thrilled that we
- 2:29Speaker 1: get to host our own big money contest five games
- 2:33Speaker 1: every week season long. Plus there will be weekly contests
- 2:38Speaker 1: that you can enter and win prizes for. If you
- 2:42Speaker 1: end up falling off the season long contest. Early on Simon,
- 2:46Speaker 1: look at what we're doing for our fans.
- 2:47Speaker 3: Look at us big time. We get bigger every year,
- 2:51Speaker 3: more so than others.
- 2:53Speaker 1: You know what, though, we're not so big that we
- 2:55Speaker 1: can organize ourselves to pull off the Week one live show.
- 2:59Speaker 1: We have planned on new doing for Sunday, Sunday night
- 3:02Speaker 1: of Week one we had talked about on the podcast.
- 3:04Speaker 1: People have been hitting us up about it. We're rescheduling it,
- 3:07Speaker 1: scheduling conflicts. It just got really complicated for a variety
- 3:11Speaker 1: of mundane reasons. Nothing exciting and dramatic, just scheduling issues.
- 3:15Speaker 1: So we will be rescheduling that for some time, probably
- 3:20Speaker 1: later September. October November is the range. As you know.
- 3:25Speaker 1: As I've said, we are very very proudly presented by
- 3:29Speaker 1: Bet three six five, the world's favorite sportsbook brand. Sign
- 3:32Speaker 1: up with promo code action to get Bet three six
- 3:35Speaker 1: five's exclusive sign up offer, bet one dollar on any
- 3:39Speaker 1: game and get two hundred dollars in bonus. Bets must
- 3:41Speaker 1: be twenty one or older. Offer is available in Colorado,
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- 3:49Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler. Look, I said, we're doing the
- 3:52Speaker 1: NFC South. You said everyone's favorite conference. I can tell
- 3:56Speaker 1: you right now. You know I've been taking notes on
- 3:58Speaker 1: the podcast and doing all the recent search. Most of
- 4:01Speaker 1: my notes when I've got this like a couple pages long,
- 4:05Speaker 1: it's hieroglyphics, like you can barely read the notes NFC South.
- 4:09Speaker 1: I'm barely filling a page. There is so little to
- 4:12Speaker 1: say about this division. I've said this about the AFC South,
- 4:15Speaker 1: it rings even more true for the NFC South, most nondescript,
- 4:18Speaker 1: most nondescript, least nationally recognized, least nationally relevant teams in
- 4:27Speaker 1: the NFL. It is regional to its core. Anybody out
- 4:31Speaker 1: outside of Carolina think about the Carolina Panthers. Anyone outside
- 4:36Speaker 1: of Atlanta except for our very good friend Connor Powers
- 4:39Speaker 1: from our social team, think about the Atlanta Falcons. Does
- 4:43Speaker 1: anybody care about the Box if Tom Brady isn't planned
- 4:46Speaker 1: for the Box. The Saints, you could argue, are interesting
- 4:49Speaker 1: to people, but I think they were only interesting when
- 4:52Speaker 1: they had Sean Payton, who's one of the coolest guys
- 4:55Speaker 1: in the NFL, and Drew Brees, who was so consistently great.
- 5:00Speaker 1: The only reason to pay attention to these teams, and
- 5:02Speaker 1: to listen to this podcast is because there are betting opportunities.
- 5:07Speaker 2: It's fair to say, Simon, Yeah, I love the South divisions.
- 5:11Speaker 2: I love the AFC South, I love the NFC South.
- 5:12Speaker 2: There's just the general public has Chad's mindset. They're just
- 5:16Speaker 2: this is uh. They hate their color schemes and they
- 5:19Speaker 2: just think these teams are boring. I love these teams.
- 5:21Speaker 2: They's just always value on them during the season.
- 5:24Speaker 1: It's true, It's totally true. Nobody could pick out a
- 5:28Speaker 1: Nobody in Europe can pick out a Carolina Panthers logo,
- 5:31Speaker 1: but they can pick out a Green Bay Packer's logo.
- 5:33Speaker 1: They can pick out a Chicago Bear's logo. I would
- 5:36Speaker 1: argue people in Tennessee can't pick out a Panther's logo
- 5:41Speaker 1: or whatever. We're going to bet on them because they're
- 5:44Speaker 1: in the NFL. They got Bryce Young, who was the
- 5:48Speaker 1: first overall pick. I don't agree with it. I would
- 5:52Speaker 1: have taken C. J. Stroud. You might have taken C. J.
- 5:55Speaker 1: Stroud or Anthony Richardson. But whatever, here we are, let
- 6:02Speaker 1: me run down the rundown here, little insane plus one twenty.
- 6:06Speaker 1: Why are you laughing?
- 6:09Speaker 3: You're just funny man.
- 6:11Speaker 1: You know, the other day you just called you called
- 6:13Speaker 1: me a douche, said you said.
- 6:16Speaker 3: A little a little bit of a douche, a little bit.
- 6:18Speaker 1: Of a douche. And I think a buddy texted me,
- 6:20Speaker 1: he goes, dude, takes a douche to know a douche,
- 6:23Speaker 1: which I think is what you fact. Could that be
- 6:27Speaker 1: why you and I get along so well?
- 6:31Speaker 2: We're definitely we definitely haven't know what all douche in us.
- 6:34Speaker 2: Chad that, there's no doubt about that.
- 6:37Speaker 1: I think you're probably a more empathetic, sensitive, selfless person
- 6:44Speaker 1: than I am.
- 6:46Speaker 3: Is that really that hard? Though?
- 6:48Speaker 2: Wow?
- 6:52Speaker 3: Sometimes you line me up and I can't help myself.
- 6:54Speaker 1: It's just too good, by the way, Good for you
- 6:56Speaker 1: for taking the opportunity. You know, It's funny because I
- 6:59Speaker 1: was thinking, like only people who really know me know
- 7:04Speaker 1: that when I was in college. When I was in
- 7:06Speaker 1: college and I first started dating my wife, and she
- 7:11Speaker 1: would visit me, she was going to Michigan, I was
- 7:13Speaker 1: going to Indiana our senior year, and she would meet
- 7:16Speaker 1: my friends and they would One of my friends said
- 7:19Speaker 1: to her, these are guys I had lived with for
- 7:21Speaker 1: four years at this point, they're like, you know, everyone
- 7:27Speaker 1: thinks Chad like he's happy and he's enthusiastic and he's smiling.
- 7:33Speaker 1: You know, he's the most underrated dick on campus. And
- 7:38Speaker 1: I feel like you're calling me out for that.
- 7:40Speaker 3: Yeah, in some ways, that's fine.
- 7:44Speaker 1: That's fine. We're going to talk about the NFC South
- 7:49Speaker 1: New Orleans Saints plus one, twenty, Atlanta Falcons plus two twenty,
- 7:53Speaker 1: Carolina plus four hundred, Tampa Bay plus seven hundred. Let's
- 8:00Speaker 1: start from the bottom up. Okay, So Tampa Bay plus
- 8:04Speaker 1: seven hundred, six and a half is the win total.
- 8:07Speaker 1: That plus one ten for the over, minus one forty
- 8:11Speaker 1: for the under. A dreadful, dreadful team. We don't know
- 8:17Speaker 1: who the quarterback is going to be. Their defensive line
- 8:20Speaker 1: used to be the strength of their team, ranked in
- 8:23Speaker 1: the bottom ten by Pro Football Focus. I don't know, man.
- 8:30Speaker 1: They got They got the tenth hardest schedule in the NFL.
- 8:37Speaker 1: The winner the under is plus is minus one forty.
- 8:41Speaker 2: Yeah, it's just a real shame. They'll have a quarterback.
- 8:43Speaker 2: If only Tom Brady was still in their team, they'd
- 8:45Speaker 2: probably have another shot I win this division again.
- 8:47Speaker 3: But he ain't there.
- 8:50Speaker 2: It was a trask and Baker fighting for the number
- 8:52Speaker 2: one quarterback position right now. So yeah, just again, you
- 8:57Speaker 2: want a super Bowl three years ago, you sowed your soul.
- 9:03Speaker 2: I don't think any Tampa Bay fans gonna complain.
- 9:05Speaker 3: It's it is what it is.
- 9:07Speaker 2: You guys are incredibly talented at the wide receiver position
- 9:12Speaker 2: and at the linebacker position, and that's it.
- 9:16Speaker 3: That's that's basically what you guys have.
- 9:18Speaker 2: You have really high level talent those spots, and the
- 9:21Speaker 2: rest of the team is just gutted. So the offensive
- 9:24Speaker 2: line might be a little better obviously than it was
- 9:26Speaker 2: last year with all the injuries that had last year,
- 9:28Speaker 2: but you lost Tom Brady.
- 9:30Speaker 3: It's just.
- 9:32Speaker 2: Everyone's gonna bet the under. I mean, I know a
- 9:34Speaker 2: couple of pros that they're very contrarian. They're like, you
- 9:37Speaker 2: have to take the over on this. It's just I
- 9:39Speaker 2: asked them to give me five good reasons to take
- 9:41Speaker 2: this over, and I think that each of them got
- 9:43Speaker 2: the two and that was about it. They were like, yep,
- 9:46Speaker 2: I guess this is kind of forcing it here. So
- 9:49Speaker 2: if they were a smart team, they would start trask,
- 9:53Speaker 2: see what they have in the kid let them be terrible.
- 9:56Speaker 2: You can get you know, a top four, top five pick,
- 9:59Speaker 2: get quarterback in the future, and restart over. But to me,
- 10:05Speaker 2: this is the team that you know six and a half.
- 10:11Speaker 2: That's my only fear is at six and a half
- 10:12Speaker 2: that just feel so high. I just don't understand why
- 10:14Speaker 2: this wasn't five and a half five because that's what
- 10:16Speaker 2: I have him model allowed at. So that's my only fear.
- 10:19Speaker 2: And the books have numbers like this that I just
- 10:21Speaker 2: seem really off. They have the reasons, they know what
- 10:23Speaker 2: they're doing, and everyone in the world's betting this under,
- 10:26Speaker 2: and they really haven't moved this number too much, so
- 10:28Speaker 2: that's my only real pause.
- 10:30Speaker 3: But I got no issue taking this under.
- 10:32Speaker 2: I got it off by a game and a half,
- 10:34Speaker 2: So yeah, under six and a half, no doubt, easy bet.
- 10:39Speaker 2: And I bet the over just in case Baker is
- 10:42Speaker 2: the start. I bet his over interceptions, which I believe
- 10:44Speaker 2: was at like twelve or thirteen. But I've been really
- 10:48Speaker 2: small bet just because he might not even be the starter,
- 10:51Speaker 2: and he might be benched midway through the season even
- 10:53Speaker 2: if he is a starter. So there's just no real
- 10:56Speaker 2: fun value bets to make with this Tample team. They're
- 10:58Speaker 2: just going to be bad. That's that's simply simply put.
- 11:03Speaker 1: Well, I kind of feel like I feel like there's
- 11:09Speaker 1: a that's why the wise guys who are betting this
- 11:15Speaker 1: are betting the under. It's because it's so contrarian and
- 11:19Speaker 1: this team looks so bad and everybody believes it and
- 11:23Speaker 1: that's the consensus opinion. So they're almost obligated by professional
- 11:29Speaker 1: professional obligation to take the under. But sometimes the under
- 11:33Speaker 1: is the under, right, Like we've done that with the Texans,
- 11:35Speaker 1: and seeing how bad a team is, I think one
- 11:37Speaker 1: of the reasons why there might be a I'm sorry
- 11:42Speaker 1: and they're taking the over because everyone else has taken
- 11:45Speaker 1: the under. But sometimes it's just a really bad team.
- 11:51Speaker 1: I think this is a really bad team, and I
- 11:53Speaker 1: think if Baker does start, if he starts five games,
- 11:57Speaker 1: I think you might win your interception bet.
- 12:00Speaker 3: Exactly.
- 12:01Speaker 2: I'm just trying not to overthink it. Where that's that's
- 12:03Speaker 2: the hardest part here in August. It's like, is this
- 12:06Speaker 2: too easy?
- 12:07Speaker 3: Is this is just a.
- 12:08Speaker 2: Gift by the sports bucks And every now and then
- 12:09Speaker 2: they do give us a gift, so this this to
- 12:11Speaker 2: me is a nice little gift by the sports books,
- 12:13Speaker 2: like them getting to six wins that would be a
- 12:17Speaker 2: good year for them, like six and eleven. I would
- 12:19Speaker 2: say it's pretty good for them. The only reason they
- 12:21Speaker 2: could get to that number is because they are in
- 12:23Speaker 2: this division that is so weak. But they're they're one
- 12:26Speaker 2: there reasons this division is weak. They're just they're just terrible.
- 12:29Speaker 1: It's probably a mistake for them to get to six
- 12:33Speaker 1: wins because that might take him out of the running
- 12:38Speaker 1: to have a higher draft pick.
- 12:39Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, that's true.
- 12:40Speaker 1: This is a team that just kind of needs to reload.
- 12:44Speaker 1: And so you know, if you can get one of
- 12:47Speaker 1: the top two quarterbacks in the NFL in the NFL draft,
- 12:51Speaker 1: get Caleb Williams, you get Drake May, that might be
- 12:54Speaker 1: your best That might be your best play. Let's go
- 12:57Speaker 1: to the Carolina Panthers plus four hundred to win the division.
- 13:03Speaker 1: The win total is seven and a half minus one
- 13:06Speaker 1: twenty five at bet three six five plus one hundred
- 13:10Speaker 1: to the under at the seven and a half. There's
- 13:16Speaker 1: only two quarterbacks that are in Sean Kerner's QB Tiers
- 13:21Speaker 1: for Fantasy that are in Tier seven from this division,
- 13:26Speaker 1: David Carr and Bryce Young.
- 13:30Speaker 2: Aaron Carr, you always call him David.
- 13:32Speaker 1: It's so true. Do you know why do you want
- 13:34Speaker 1: to know why?
- 13:35Speaker 3: Because you got some type of story?
- 13:37Speaker 1: Because oh, there you go, you sound like you sound
- 13:44Speaker 1: like my twenty year old who want I'll say, you
- 13:47Speaker 1: want to know why, I'll go, oh God, tell me why.
- 13:52Speaker 2: I was just assuming you're gonna be like and I
- 13:53Speaker 2: visited him in Houston. I was staying at his house
- 13:56Speaker 2: for a week while I was writing a piece on
- 13:57Speaker 2: him for ESPN.
- 14:00Speaker 1: That's exactly, That's exactly exactly that. Jed So, Derek Carr,
- 14:12Speaker 1: and Bryce Young. I don't know, man like I'm not
- 14:18Speaker 1: a buyer. I'm not a buyer on Bryce Young. I'm
- 14:20Speaker 1: not a buyer on the Panthers team. We have been
- 14:23Speaker 1: big Panthers betters in the past and love them. Their
- 14:27Speaker 1: their defensive line. According to according to PFF, is you
- 14:35Speaker 1: say sick, PFF says good, not great. They got Brian Burns.
- 14:40Speaker 3: You know they got is total.
- 14:43Speaker 1: Stud right, uh contract year he will get Nick Bosa
- 14:48Speaker 1: Joey Bosa like money when his deal is up. Nick
- 14:51Speaker 1: Bosa right now is sitting out trying to get a
- 14:55Speaker 1: better deal from the Niners. He wants that, you know,
- 14:58Speaker 1: t J Watt that Joey Bosa's standard deal. Brian Burns
- 15:03Speaker 1: is in camp, he is playing, He's going to go
- 15:04Speaker 1: through the year. He will get that deal if he
- 15:07Speaker 1: is anything close to what he's been in the past
- 15:08Speaker 1: couple of years. Derek Brown defensive tackle, one of the
- 15:13Speaker 1: highest graded defensive tackles according to PFF. But that might
- 15:17Speaker 1: be the best unit of their whole team.
- 15:19Speaker 2: Yeah, if it's going to shock people, because I literally
- 15:26Speaker 2: all I did was just sho on Bryce Young for
- 15:28Speaker 2: six months and he costs me a lot of money,
- 15:31Speaker 2: no fault of his own.
- 15:35Speaker 3: But I love this team chet.
- 15:36Speaker 2: I know that people are out on I know, I
- 15:39Speaker 2: know if I'm gonna go along shot in this division,
- 15:42Speaker 2: it's not Atlanta for me, it's this team. And I
- 15:45Speaker 2: think it's because Bryce Schunk to me, is the most
- 15:46Speaker 2: ready quarterback. Like, do I think his career longevity wise
- 15:50Speaker 2: is gonna be great. No, I think he is two
- 15:53Speaker 2: in his size, he won't be able to take hits.
- 15:55Speaker 2: But for year one, I love the upside of him.
- 15:59Speaker 3: He's just.
- 16:01Speaker 2: I don't know if I've ever had a QB smarter
- 16:03Speaker 2: coming out of college like this kid is.
- 16:06Speaker 3: Football wise, he's.
- 16:07Speaker 2: A genius, Like he is so good at reading defenses,
- 16:10Speaker 2: he's so good at making mistakes and not making the
- 16:12Speaker 2: same mistake again, Like he's just that's why he took
- 16:15Speaker 2: aim number one. Like the kid is already made. And
- 16:18Speaker 2: you know they're gonna talk about his ceiling everything like that.
- 16:22Speaker 2: To me, like this is his ceiling, like the next
- 16:24Speaker 2: year or two, I just don't know how he's gonna
- 16:27Speaker 2: keep getting better. It's it's all there. So you know,
- 16:34Speaker 2: I'm with you, Chad. They got they got holes. But
- 16:36Speaker 2: I do think their defense is incredibly strong, Like this
- 16:39Speaker 2: is a really good defensive unit.
- 16:42Speaker 3: Frank Reich historically has always started slow.
- 16:45Speaker 2: Like if you go back and look at his years
- 16:47Speaker 2: with the Colts, I mean I have to ask Evan Abrams,
- 16:51Speaker 2: but I feel like he never won Week one or two, right,
- 16:54Speaker 2: It wasn't that always a weird thing with this with
- 16:56Speaker 2: them coaching them.
- 16:57Speaker 3: Like they just always started slow.
- 16:58Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe I'd be better off waiting in season
- 17:02Speaker 2: getting better odds on them divisionally and their win total over.
- 17:05Speaker 2: But you know, I've already bet it, so I got
- 17:07Speaker 2: them eight and a half wins for the year, so
- 17:09Speaker 2: obviously I'm taking the over seven and a half. Divisionally
- 17:12Speaker 2: bet three six five hasn't met plus four hundred. That's
- 17:15Speaker 2: fair that that's a good number. Like they are, you know,
- 17:21Speaker 2: the third best team this division. Atlanta should be ahead
- 17:23Speaker 2: of them. Alanta has all the the the names on offense.
- 17:26Speaker 2: Everyone knows all the names Alanta has all across their offense.
- 17:29Speaker 2: But Bright shang to me, he is a winner and
- 17:34Speaker 2: he's crazy smart, and I could see him just dragging
- 17:36Speaker 2: this corpse of a team to eight wins. So you know,
- 17:40Speaker 2: they're gonna need a lot of luck to win this division.
- 17:43Speaker 2: But I think they have the opportunity there. Like again,
- 17:46Speaker 2: it's I'm not not knocking them for drafting them Carolina, Like,
- 17:51Speaker 2: to me, their future have been better taking the other guys,
- 17:54Speaker 2: but we're here now. Like they took Bryce s Young,
- 17:56Speaker 2: he's leading their offense. I'm telling you, Chad, this kid
- 17:59Speaker 2: is fucking smart man, and like he has really really
- 18:01Speaker 2: good football wise, like just always improving, always learning from
- 18:05Speaker 2: mistakes and just recorrecting this mistake.
- 18:07Speaker 3: So I can't believe I'm doing it.
- 18:10Speaker 2: But yeah, if I'm going with a long shot in
- 18:12Speaker 2: this division, this is the bet i'd take. I would
- 18:14Speaker 2: take Carolina, not the Atlanta Falcons.
- 18:17Speaker 1: Wow, all right, when we did the AFC North podcast.
- 18:22Speaker 1: We had not talked before the show, and after all
- 18:27Speaker 1: my research. It hit me the night before the show
- 18:31Speaker 1: that I was going to love the Cleveland Browns, and
- 18:34Speaker 1: I knew you were going to love the Cleveland Browns too,
- 18:37Speaker 1: and we set it together on the show and it
- 18:38Speaker 1: was like a nice little surprise. This is stunning to
- 18:42Speaker 1: me because when I was doing my research, I did
- 18:45Speaker 1: not come to the conclusion of the Carolina Panthers because
- 18:48Speaker 1: I did not think the rest of their roster was
- 18:52Speaker 1: good enough that Bryce Young could make that much of
- 18:54Speaker 1: a difference. So what you're saying to me is astonishing,
- 18:58Speaker 1: totally astonishing.
- 19:01Speaker 3: I'm saying that, yeah, it sucks that Feeling's one of.
- 19:03Speaker 2: His bigger, his big receivers, Like it's not ideal, but
- 19:08Speaker 2: you know, I think Miles Sanders will do good on
- 19:09Speaker 2: that team. It's just there's just a lot of stuff
- 19:11Speaker 2: there that I like, and the biggest key to that
- 19:13Speaker 2: is Bryce Young. I just think he's a ready made product.
- 19:15Speaker 2: Like if there's a guy that is ready to be
- 19:20Speaker 2: dropped right into the NFL, it's him. And the only
- 19:23Speaker 2: knock is, I don't know he's gonna hold up, Like
- 19:24Speaker 2: I don't know if he can take the hits any
- 19:25Speaker 2: of that stuff. You know that that to me is
- 19:28Speaker 2: those are words down the road. That's that's up, that's
- 19:31Speaker 2: the next couple of years for his first year in
- 19:33Speaker 2: the league. I like him in this spot. I just
- 19:36Speaker 2: I just like this spot he's in where he is.
- 19:41Speaker 3: Again.
- 19:42Speaker 2: I don't know how savvy he is going to be,
- 19:44Speaker 2: but just from what I've read, in what I've seen,
- 19:46Speaker 2: he feels like he is the mentality of a fifth
- 19:48Speaker 2: year starter in this league. He just seems like very very,
- 19:52Speaker 2: very smart. And I'm going to bank on that. Where
- 19:56Speaker 2: I have a million more questions about the starter for
- 19:59Speaker 2: Atlanta and and all what they're doing at the quarterback
- 20:01Speaker 2: position where Carolina, I know exactly what I'm getting from
- 20:04Speaker 2: this kid. I know exactly what's going to be this
- 20:06Speaker 2: upcoming season. And you know I talked about in the
- 20:10Speaker 2: draft process, I had a second round grade in the kid.
- 20:12Speaker 2: But now that we're here and he's playing, he is
- 20:16Speaker 2: the most ready made quarterback to come out of this
- 20:18Speaker 2: draft class.
- 20:22Speaker 1: You make two interesting points, and we're going to get
- 20:24Speaker 1: to the Falcons. You make two interesting points about the roster,
- 20:30Speaker 1: and you could sort of see what the Panthers were
- 20:34Speaker 1: thinking a little bit with what they've done since they
- 20:38Speaker 1: drafted Bryce Young. They got Bryce Young. They believe what
- 20:41Speaker 1: you believe, right, They believe the guy is NFL ready
- 20:45Speaker 1: day one starter coach like Frank Wright, who can help
- 20:49Speaker 1: develop him, put him in situations to win, take advantage
- 20:52Speaker 1: of the talents, and instead of relying on having him
- 20:58Speaker 1: growing with other young offensive skill position players, you get
- 21:02Speaker 1: an Adam feel and who might be on the other side,
- 21:05Speaker 1: but it is still a really disciplined route runner, can
- 21:07Speaker 1: find ways to get open, can be a quarterback's best
- 21:10Speaker 1: friend in short yardage situations. You get a guy like
- 21:13Speaker 1: Miles Sanders, who I think I read the plan is
- 21:16Speaker 1: to get him the ball fifteen times a game on
- 21:18Speaker 1: the ground and you know, three to five times a
- 21:21Speaker 1: game through the air, largely in short passes. So you
- 21:24Speaker 1: surround him Bryce Young, being him with guys who have
- 21:29Speaker 1: been there, who know how to be professional football players.
- 21:32Speaker 1: So maybe you're right. Maybe I'm just like so down
- 21:35Speaker 1: on the idea that I was blinded and I needed
- 21:37Speaker 1: your professionalism to shine a light on the opportunity.
- 21:41Speaker 2: Yeah, And I just think everyone their favorite team in
- 21:44Speaker 2: this division, especially the fake pros like the guys who
- 21:47Speaker 2: act like they're professional betters. Is Atlanta like that? That
- 21:51Speaker 2: just to me seems like the easy bet for a
- 21:53Speaker 2: lot of people. It's like, well, look at their schedule.
- 21:55Speaker 2: They're playing a lot of rookies and all this other
- 21:57Speaker 2: stuff where it's like, I don't know, you shoul probably
- 21:59Speaker 2: dig a little deep bran into who their quarterback is
- 22:01Speaker 2: and how he's gonna produce this upcoming season and when
- 22:04Speaker 2: it boils down, boils down to it, Chad, Carolina, their
- 22:08Speaker 2: defense is underrated at this point, Like you're you just
- 22:11Speaker 2: talked about a little bit where you know, the strongest
- 22:13Speaker 2: part of their unit is that deef D line, you know,
- 22:16Speaker 2: the secondary and their linebacker position is pretty good. So
- 22:19Speaker 2: across the board, I just think last year Carolina felt
- 22:25Speaker 2: like a little bit of a lost cause, guy, I
- 22:26Speaker 2: just didn't believe in the quarterback position, where this year
- 22:28Speaker 2: I do believe in Bryce Young.
- 22:31Speaker 3: Super Bowl odds. Hell no, you can.
- 22:34Speaker 2: You'll never catch me betting on a rookie, especially sixty
- 22:37Speaker 2: six to one, Like what the fuck? Like they have
- 22:39Speaker 2: this they're they're close to the same odds that we
- 22:41Speaker 2: got the Bears at Like that's crazy. So yeah, yeah, terrible,
- 22:46Speaker 2: terrible odds for the Super Bowl futures, but Division Odds
- 22:49Speaker 2: think that's a good number plus four hundred.
- 22:52Speaker 1: By the way, I mentioned that Bryce Young is in
- 22:56Speaker 1: Sean Cruner's QB Tier seven for Fantasy. Baker Mayfield's in
- 23:02Speaker 1: Tier ten. We're going to talk about the Falcons. We're
- 23:05Speaker 1: going to talk about the same he is a Tier
- 23:07Speaker 1: ten Chier ten. First, we're going to talk about game Time.
- 23:12Speaker 1: We've been talking about game time for so long on
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- 24:16Speaker 1: last minute Ticket's lowest price guaranteed. Simon, We've said it before.
- 24:22Speaker 1: We have been an Atlanta Falcons podcast. We've done it
- 24:27Speaker 1: when it's been ugly, We've done it when it's been uncomfortable.
- 24:30Speaker 1: We love Arthur Smith. We love his scheme, run heavy.
- 24:36Speaker 1: It plays to the strength of their offensive line, which
- 24:38Speaker 1: is a top ten offensive line. They drafted Bijon Dijon.
- 24:43Speaker 1: They got weapons. I think that's why people are falling
- 24:46Speaker 1: in love. They got weapons, and they've seen what Arthur
- 24:50Speaker 1: Smith has done with the likes of Cordero Patterson. They've
- 24:53Speaker 1: seen what he's done with people who he was just
- 24:56Speaker 1: bringing in off the street. He keeps skims close and
- 25:00Speaker 1: people love him. He's a better's good friend. Yeah.
- 25:04Speaker 2: I think it's all if do you believe in Desmond
- 25:06Speaker 2: Ritter or do you not? And I do not believe
- 25:08Speaker 2: in the kid.
- 25:09Speaker 1: So QB Tier ten according to Sean Kerner, by.
- 25:13Speaker 3: The way, and that's right.
- 25:15Speaker 2: Again, this could easily change if they do trade for
- 25:17Speaker 2: Tannehill or if they make a move for a quarterback.
- 25:20Speaker 2: Easily could change because they do. Drake London is an
- 25:23Speaker 2: incredible talent. I still don't really know about Pitts yet,
- 25:27Speaker 2: but in his in fairness to him, he's never had
- 25:28Speaker 2: a quarterback like he had a broken Matt Ryan and
- 25:30Speaker 2: then a Mariota. It's just he really is that much
- 25:33Speaker 2: throwing to him. Which again that's why I shot on
- 25:36Speaker 2: this organization. They took a tight end at the number
- 25:40Speaker 2: four pick instead of taking justin fields will never make
- 25:43Speaker 2: sense and anyone's big board, it would never make sense
- 25:47Speaker 2: the value. And we talk all the time, like the
- 25:49Speaker 2: best tight ends in the league, you know, the Mark Andrews,
- 25:52Speaker 2: the Travis Kelcey's, the Kittles, they're all third, fourth, fifth
- 25:55Speaker 2: round picks. Like that's where you find you're dim in
- 25:57Speaker 2: the rough at tight end position, your quarterback position. You
- 26:00Speaker 2: find in the first round. They went the other way.
- 26:02Speaker 2: They're like, you know, well we'll take a tight end
- 26:04Speaker 2: the first and we'll take our starting quarterback.
- 26:06Speaker 3: In the third round. So Desmond.
- 26:10Speaker 2: Easily could be wrong with the kid, Like, if he
- 26:12Speaker 2: has the confidence he can get the ball downfield, he
- 26:14Speaker 2: will be a good starting quarterback. I have no idea
- 26:17Speaker 2: if he can do that. Last year, all the film
- 26:18Speaker 2: I saw, he was terrified to throw over ten yards.
- 26:21Speaker 2: Like the kid will try to dink and dunk his
- 26:23Speaker 2: way down the field. He's not that good. He's not
- 26:26Speaker 2: my homes He can't do that, Like he can't read defenses.
- 26:29Speaker 2: So you know, I would say I've talked to a
- 26:34Speaker 2: couple of guys, a couple of pros over the last
- 26:37Speaker 2: couple of months. They're all trying to convince themselves to
- 26:40Speaker 2: take this Falcons team. They're all trying to convince so
- 26:42Speaker 2: the better on them divisionally, take their over win total,
- 26:45Speaker 2: Like to keep bringing up how many rookies they play
- 26:47Speaker 2: on their schedule, how easy their schedule is. I just
- 26:50Speaker 2: can't get behind Desmond Ritter.
- 26:52Speaker 3: I just can't do it.
- 26:53Speaker 2: So this is a team that I had taken them
- 26:56Speaker 2: at three three to one. I believe we talked about
- 26:59Speaker 2: them in the year. Yeah, it was just because I
- 27:02Speaker 2: thought they would trade for a new quarterback. It seems
- 27:05Speaker 2: like this is the guy like they're gonna roll with him.
- 27:07Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take their under. I won't touch them divisionally.
- 27:12Speaker 2: To me, they're just what.
- 27:14Speaker 3: Are they down to?
- 27:15Speaker 2: They're bound to plus two to twenty division.
- 27:18Speaker 3: I'm bet three sixty five.
- 27:19Speaker 2: Like to me, they should be closer to Carolina, like
- 27:23Speaker 2: they should be plus three fifty plus three hundred. So
- 27:26Speaker 2: clearly the big money is coming and move this number.
- 27:29Speaker 2: Somebody's believing in Atlanta, but it ain't me. So I
- 27:32Speaker 2: might be my foot the end of the year, Chad,
- 27:34Speaker 2: but as we sit here right now, I just can't
- 27:36Speaker 2: be can't be putting money into this team positively.
- 27:39Speaker 1: Yeah, it's really interesting the way we talk about Arthur
- 27:43Speaker 1: Smith being a better's good friend. I feel like bookmakers
- 27:48Speaker 1: recognize there's a little bit of a bias for Arthur Smith,
- 27:51Speaker 1: and it's kind of a a Kyle Shanahan light reputation
- 28:01Speaker 1: amongst amongst people who are big fans of the NFL
- 28:04Speaker 1: are paying attention to schemes, paying attention to rosters. He's
- 28:09Speaker 1: got thoughts on how to build an offense, and he's
- 28:14Speaker 1: able to adjust. And I think that, of course he
- 28:18Speaker 1: wants a great quarterback. But I think he's a coach
- 28:22Speaker 1: who also thinks I can probably figure out how to
- 28:25Speaker 1: win some games with that one. And I think he's
- 28:28Speaker 1: getting I think he's getting a lot of credit for that.
- 28:31Speaker 1: And we've seen it in a couple of years that
- 28:32Speaker 1: he's been a head coach and it's paid off for people.
- 28:35Speaker 1: So I think that's why that's why we're seeing people
- 28:38Speaker 1: not really caring about Desmond Ritter because he feels like
- 28:42Speaker 1: I've got tools everywhere, I'll be fine, And.
- 28:45Speaker 2: It's totally fair. I mean, he literally he was coach
- 28:49Speaker 2: or maybe he wasn't coach or almost positively was. He
- 28:52Speaker 2: was on Tennessee when they got that one see with
- 28:53Speaker 2: Dan Hill, like he really did.
- 28:55Speaker 1: That's that's what got him to the reputational before that.
- 28:59Speaker 2: But I mean he's really good. And again Cooidell Patterson,
- 29:03Speaker 2: the guy who was left for dead, he could play
- 29:05Speaker 2: turn around his career there in Atlanta, turned him into
- 29:07Speaker 2: a running back. And yeah, it's just it's not so
- 29:11Speaker 2: much about him. It's just it's all about the kid Desmond.
- 29:14Speaker 2: Like I just I just don't have a real read
- 29:16Speaker 2: on him. And everything I've seen from training camp is
- 29:19Speaker 2: again and what you expect for a first year starter.
- 29:22Speaker 2: He'll have a great practice one day and the next
- 29:24Speaker 2: day he'll go one for five with two interceptions. It's
- 29:27Speaker 2: just up and down every other practice. So yeah, I
- 29:31Speaker 2: just can't get behind it. But I totally get where.
- 29:33Speaker 3: You're coming from.
- 29:34Speaker 2: Chad like he is, you know, one of the best
- 29:36Speaker 2: offensive lines in all football, So can't can't can't say
- 29:40Speaker 2: you that's not true. I mean, that run blocking scheme
- 29:42Speaker 2: he had last year was incredible. They just were one
- 29:45Speaker 2: of the best running teams in all football last year.
- 29:47Speaker 2: So makes sense where you're coming from. But I'm gonna
- 29:51Speaker 2: stay in my ground and say this kid is not
- 29:53Speaker 2: a starting quarterback in the NFL right now.
- 29:56Speaker 1: The Falcons have, according to Sean Kerner, the fourth easiest
- 30:01Speaker 1: schedule in the NFL. Between Arthur Smith, the schedule, the
- 30:07Speaker 1: talent on the edges, Drake Londa, and Kyle Pitts bijon
- 30:13Speaker 1: because people are saying, you know, in a very weak
- 30:16Speaker 1: division eight and a half isn't impossible, sneaking out a
- 30:22Speaker 1: nine win division winner isn't impossible. The last team we
- 30:26Speaker 1: got to talk about, the New Orleans Sayings, who, according
- 30:28Speaker 1: to Kurner, have the fifth easiest schedule a veteran in
- 30:32Speaker 1: Derek Carr talk about a team that just it lost
- 30:36Speaker 1: all its personality. Do you know what I mean? Like
- 30:39Speaker 1: even their D line, which was the anchor of their defense,
- 30:43Speaker 1: has become one of the worst units in the league.
- 30:47Speaker 1: So they got Dennis Allen as a coach, they got
- 30:50Speaker 1: Derek Carr, who's indiscernible from his brother, who's my age
- 30:54Speaker 1: as a quarterback. There's nothing to get excited about for
- 30:57Speaker 1: a team that's a plus one twenty winner to vision
- 31:00Speaker 1: of nine and a half wins at plus plus one
- 31:03Speaker 1: ten at bet three six five nothing Oh no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no,
- 31:09Speaker 1: no dilateated and gentlemen with the Saints go watching in
- 31:18Speaker 1: Oh my god, I'm looking at this. I'm looking at
- 31:21Speaker 1: your face like when I'm saying this, and I'm like
- 31:23Speaker 1: this fucker, yeah, this guy.
- 31:28Speaker 2: It's rare to go chalk, but I'm going chalk in
- 31:30Speaker 2: this division. I love the Saints. I think they're above
- 31:34Speaker 2: everyone else that's even close. Like I do think they're.
- 31:36Speaker 3: The best Saints.
- 31:37Speaker 1: Hold on, hold on. You love the Saints to win
- 31:40Speaker 1: the division. You love them that plus one twenty.
- 31:43Speaker 3: Don't hate it.
- 31:44Speaker 2: I honestly think they probably should be minus one, one,
- 31:47Speaker 2: one thirty.
- 31:48Speaker 3: They're just.
- 31:51Speaker 2: You know, I think you nailed at what the public
- 31:53Speaker 2: opinion is on Derek Carr, like, they're just off for
- 31:56Speaker 2: the guy. You had a horrible year last year with
- 31:57Speaker 2: Josh McDaniels as head coach. I think it's gonna be
- 32:01Speaker 2: a lot better for him this upcoming season. I think
- 32:03Speaker 2: that you know, who knows what Michael Thomas will be,
- 32:08Speaker 2: but I think he'll be more comfortable in this offense.
- 32:11Speaker 2: You know, Chris Olave, the other wide receiver, is really
- 32:13Speaker 2: talented the Canada Ohio State. It's what year two for him.
- 32:18Speaker 2: They have the talent there. But I do agree with
- 32:20Speaker 2: what you're saying about their defense. I think they did
- 32:22Speaker 2: lose some identity on that defense, where you know, they
- 32:26Speaker 2: were tough as.
- 32:26Speaker 3: Hell last year.
- 32:28Speaker 2: They kind of got away from that and it came
- 32:30Speaker 2: back around towards the end of the season, right, they
- 32:31Speaker 2: did improve. I don't have much face in Dennis sound.
- 32:35Speaker 2: I'm in lockstep with Chad and Dennis Allen. I think
- 32:37Speaker 2: he is Historically he's a loser, but I did think
- 32:40Speaker 2: last year he made improvements as a coach. You know,
- 32:45Speaker 2: the the Alvin Kamar missing the first three games of
- 32:48Speaker 2: the year is that ideal. But we talked all the
- 32:52Speaker 2: time like the running back position shouldn't dictate how you're
- 32:54Speaker 2: going to bet a team for the upcoming season, so
- 32:55Speaker 2: it won't let it affect me. I still think this
- 32:58Speaker 2: is a gritty veteran team. It's all lay out for them.
- 33:01Speaker 2: They should win this division. I sprinkled a little bet
- 33:04Speaker 2: on them to be the number one seed in the NFC,
- 33:06Speaker 2: just because what Chad is talked about. They have an
- 33:08Speaker 2: easy schedule and if I do think Derek Carr can
- 33:11Speaker 2: get back too, not even the MVP level he had
- 33:14Speaker 2: years ago when he was some of the Raiders were
- 33:16Speaker 2: still playing in Oakland. You can just get right below that,
- 33:18Speaker 2: if you can get back to being what he should be,
- 33:20Speaker 2: right a Kirk Cousins type, a top twelve, top fifteen
- 33:24Speaker 2: kind of quarterback. How do they not run away with
- 33:26Speaker 2: this division? I mean they are just far and above
- 33:28Speaker 2: the most veteran team and best team in this division.
- 33:31Speaker 2: So little spoiler for future episodes. I only have one
- 33:35Speaker 2: other team I'm really high on that's the favorite to
- 33:38Speaker 2: lead their division. And if you know Matt Mitchell, you'll
- 33:41Speaker 2: know that's his favorite team in all football, So this
- 33:43Speaker 2: is the only other time I'm going chalk is the Saints.
- 33:46Speaker 2: I just I like the number plus one, twenty plus one, thirty,
- 33:50Speaker 2: I like the over nine and a half.
- 33:51Speaker 3: They just.
- 33:54Speaker 2: Not that Derek Carr's got to be feeling the pressure.
- 33:55Speaker 2: But this kind of feels like a make or break
- 33:57Speaker 2: season for him, right It's kind of left for dead.
- 34:00Speaker 2: If he does have a really bad year, I think
- 34:02Speaker 2: they would easily move on from him. But you know,
- 34:05Speaker 2: it's it's just all there from There's no real excuses.
- 34:07Speaker 2: Like their offensive line is not that terrible. It's not
- 34:09Speaker 2: as bad as it was in Oakland, I mean Las Vegas.
- 34:12Speaker 2: And you know, on the outside, if Michael Thomas gonna
- 34:15Speaker 2: come back to form, that's an incredible number two to have,
- 34:19Speaker 2: like because I do think Chris Lovey is number one
- 34:21Speaker 2: on this team. So it's all there, Chad, it's all
- 34:24Speaker 2: there for them to be better this year. The big
- 34:27Speaker 2: question is Derek Carr. So I'm a Derek Carr believer.
- 34:30Speaker 2: I always have been. I just I liked the kid.
- 34:33Speaker 2: I think last year a lot was on him. He
- 34:36Speaker 2: melted it down as well. I'm gonna put a lot
- 34:38Speaker 2: of it on Josh mccale's too. I just didn't think
- 34:39Speaker 2: he put him in the best position, and clearly he
- 34:41Speaker 2: didn't believe it on him. I mean, they could have
- 34:43Speaker 2: moved on from him any quicker in this offseason, So
- 34:46Speaker 2: to me, I like him in a revenge bounce back spot.
- 34:50Speaker 3: Veteran quarterback on a team that they're just in.
- 34:53Speaker 2: Such a weak division, Like if they were any any
- 34:55Speaker 2: if they were in the NFC East, you know, if
- 34:57Speaker 2: they're on some of these other divisions, I would not
- 34:58Speaker 2: be this high on this team. But they're in the
- 35:00Speaker 2: NFC South and this team is just a wasteland right
- 35:04Speaker 2: now of quarterbacks, and Derek Carr is by far the
- 35:06Speaker 2: best quarterback in this division, has the most talent on
- 35:09Speaker 2: his team. I got to take this number.
- 35:11Speaker 3: Chat.
- 35:11Speaker 2: I'm trying to not trying not to be biased where
- 35:13Speaker 2: I just love taking the big dogs. I do like Carolina,
- 35:16Speaker 2: but in reality, my big, my biggest bet right now
- 35:19Speaker 2: is this team to win this division.
- 35:22Speaker 1: Well, color me surprised, Simon Color be surprised. It makes
- 35:27Speaker 1: all the sense in the world. I think this is
- 35:30Speaker 1: always an interesting conversation for me to have because it
- 35:33Speaker 1: reveals my biases. To me, and my blind spots when
- 35:38Speaker 1: it comes to this stuff.
- 35:39Speaker 3: We all have them, tho.
- 35:41Speaker 1: Yeah, And I'm so biased on the NFC South and
- 35:43Speaker 1: so biased against Dennis Allen and so biased against Derek Carr.
- 35:48Speaker 3: Like that's totally fair.
- 35:50Speaker 1: I'm not seeing the opportunity, right, What have we said
- 35:53Speaker 1: in the past, We don't get to create the opportunity,
- 35:56Speaker 1: We just get to bet the opportunity. And clearly I
- 35:59Speaker 1: was not seeing the opportunity, but now I do have
- 36:02Speaker 1: to bet the opportunity. The best bets for us from
- 36:05Speaker 1: this division NFC South Carolina over seven and a half
- 36:09Speaker 1: at bet three six five right now, the New Orleans
- 36:14Speaker 1: Saints at plus one twenty to win the division and
- 36:18Speaker 1: over nine and a half at plus one hundred, I mean,
- 36:21Speaker 1: plus money on both. Are we not doing this now
- 36:25Speaker 1: that I look at it, now that you pointed out,
- 36:26Speaker 1: how are we not doing this?
- 36:29Speaker 2: I mean we're pretty two overs two unders. But that's
- 36:32Speaker 2: just how I view the division.
- 36:34Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorite podcast is probably presented by
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- 37:00Speaker 1: This has been the Favorites podcast presented by BET three
- 37:03Speaker 1: sixty five, part of the Action Network. I am Schad Nolman.
- 37:07Speaker 1: He is Simon Hunter. Download the podcast from Apple Podcasts, Spotify,
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