Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Could the US sell weapons to its biggest rival China

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Could the US sell weapons to its biggest rival China · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: If a world leader offered to sell weapons to their
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  Speaker 1: biggest rival, you might well ask, why on earth? Wouldn't
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: that be arming the enemy or selling the rope to
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  Speaker 1: hang yourself? But that is what President Trump reportedly did
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  Speaker 1: last week when he was hosting China's President Xi Jinping
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  Speaker 1: in Washington. The American ambassador to China, David Perdue, revealed
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  Speaker 1: Trump's comments in a television interview on Sunday. We sell
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  Speaker 1: arms to other people around the world, he said. He
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  Speaker 1: actually asked President Xi would he like to buy some
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  Speaker 1: at one point. This is an extraordinary admission to make.
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  Speaker 1: Given that China has the world's fastest growing military, Chinese
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  Speaker 1: defence companies are supporting America's adversaries, including Iran and Russia.
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  Speaker 1: And because America's dominant military power in the Asia-Pacific region
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  Speaker 1: is now fading relative to China's. And that's not helped
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  Speaker 1: by the Trump administration using its resources from the region
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  Speaker 1: in its war against Iran. And then, of course, there's Taiwan.
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  Speaker 1: Its leaders in Taipei will have been unnerved by Trump's comments.
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  Speaker 1: The U.S. is legally required to provide Taipei supplies. with
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  Speaker 1: sufficient military equipment to defend itself. Yet Trump has been
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  Speaker 1: withholding a $ 14 billion sale of weapons to Taiwan because
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  Speaker 1: he says it's a, quote, very good negotiating chip with China.
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  Speaker 1: So what overall effect are Trump's remarks going to have?
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  Speaker 1: Could America... potentially sell weapons to China without undermining its
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  Speaker 1: own commitment to Taiwan? And what would all of this
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  Speaker 1: mean for Taiwan's future? We can put those questions to
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  Speaker 1: Ian Chong, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore.
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  Speaker 1: His focus is on international relations in the Asia-Pacific, and
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  Speaker 1: he's worked both in Singapore and in the U.S., Thanks
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  Speaker 1: so much for joining us, Ian. Let's start with the
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  Speaker 1: fact that Trump made this offer to President Xi in
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  Speaker 1: the first place.
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  Speaker 2: Now, the U.S.
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  Speaker 1: Ambassador who revealed Trump's comments didn't actually reveal Mr.
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  Speaker 3: Xi's reply.
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  Speaker 1: But from Xi Jinping's perspective, what message would he have
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  Speaker 1: taken from a U.S. president offering to sell weapons to China?
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  Speaker 2: So what I have to say is going to be speculative.
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  Speaker 3: I'm not completely comfortable going there.
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  Speaker 2: But I think from the PRC perspective, if it was
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  Speaker 2: true that they had.
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  Speaker 3: This offer, they would probably be pretty circumspect. I mean,
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  Speaker 3: they have their own... pretty sophisticated weapons industry. They probably
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  Speaker 3: don't need U.S. arms, but they probably would like to
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  Speaker 3: study them.
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  Speaker 4: But I'm pretty confident that General Secretary Xi probably thinks
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  Speaker 4: of that comment by, alleged comment by President Trump as
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  Speaker 4: perhaps a throwaway comment, perhaps as a joke.
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  Speaker 3: I mean, we don't have very much context under which
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  Speaker 3: these comments were made.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, the White House, we should say, is now
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  Speaker 1: denying that the U.S. has any plans to sell arms
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  Speaker 1: to China and U.S. law prohibits arms sales to China.
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  Speaker 1: But even if no sale were possible, what does this
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  Speaker 1: episode tell us about Trump's approach to diplomacy with Beijing?
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  Speaker 3: Well, I guess what it would suggest is, on the
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  Speaker 3: one hand.
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  Speaker 2: President Trump is very freewheeling in his language and perhaps
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  Speaker 2: in sometimes his approach to policies.
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  Speaker 3: And again, his personal rapport.
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  Speaker 2: With General Secretary Xi Jinping seems to matter a lot
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  Speaker 2: in terms of what he's trying to say, how he's
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  Speaker 2: trying to reach out to Xi. So I think that's
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  Speaker 2: the sort of takeaway that I would have.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, does it strike you as kind of a
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  Speaker 1: transactional approach, a transactional negotiation, which Trump is known for,
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  Speaker 1: isn't it? You know, I'll give you this, you give
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  Speaker 1: me that.
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  Speaker 2: Well, yes, Trump is known to be transactional, but he
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  Speaker 2: is also known to speak in hyperbolic terms. Now, without
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  Speaker 2: further context, it is not entirely clear what he means here. Now,
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  Speaker 2: I know that there's a lot of anxiety because of
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  Speaker 2: concerns over the fairly mercurial.
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  Speaker 3: Approach towards policy that President Trump has.
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  Speaker 2: I think for right now, at least, there seem to
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  Speaker 2: be some safeguards that are working, given the White House
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  Speaker 2: statement and also the State Department statement that, you know,
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  Speaker 2: about the illegality of selling arms to the PRC at
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  Speaker 2: this point. I would also say that in the 80s,
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  Speaker 2: there was some talk.
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  Speaker 1: No, no, go ahead.
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  Speaker 2: So in the 80s, there was some talk of potential
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  Speaker 2: arms sales to China from the United States, but that
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  Speaker 2: didn't go anywhere. And I am doubtful that we are
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  Speaker 2: going to see a repeat of that situation.
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  Speaker 1: Ryan Haas is a former White House national security official.
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  Speaker 1: He made another important point after Trump's remarks came to light.
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  Speaker 1: He wrote on X, Trump's offer to sell weapons to
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  Speaker 1: China will be unsettling to American partners at the pointy
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  Speaker 1: edge of China's spear. Now, Taiwan immediately comes to mind. That's,
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  Speaker 1: of course, the de facto independent island country. a democracy
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  Speaker 1: that the Chinese Communist Party wants to rule. How would
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  Speaker 1: political and military leaders in Taipei have interpreted this episode?
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  Speaker 2: So far, actually, Taipei has been pretty silent on it.
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  Speaker 2: They have already previously been somewhat anxious about President Trump's
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  Speaker 2: position on arms sales and potentially any withholding of arms
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  Speaker 2: or technology at China's behest.
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  Speaker 3: In return for some sort of transaction.
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  Speaker 2: At least on this point, I think the reading in
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  Speaker 2: Taipei is.
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  Speaker 3: That they are going to wait and see.
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  Speaker 2: It seems to be a throwaway comment because the White
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  Speaker 2: House and the State Department have walked away from those comments.
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  Speaker 2: They've not denied it, but they've sort of cast doubt
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  Speaker 2: on the actual seriousness of those comments.
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  Speaker 1: Although Trump has, and we mentioned this earlier, Trump has
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  Speaker 1: withheld a $ 14 billion arms package for Taiwan, despite this
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  Speaker 1: longstanding U.S. commitment under the Taiwan Relations Act. So talk
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  Speaker 1: to us about that delay. I mean, how significant is that? And,
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  Speaker 1: you know, are you seeing this as sort of tactical
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  Speaker 1: diplomacy with Beijing or... Or are we looking at a
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  Speaker 1: deeper shift in American policy toward Taiwan, if we're looking
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  Speaker 1: at the bigger picture?
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  Speaker 3: So there are two elements to the delay in arms sales.
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  Speaker 2: Under the 1982 communique, the US talked about drawing down
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  Speaker 2: arms sales on the condition that the PRC's threat of
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  Speaker 2: violence toward Taiwan also be declining.
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  Speaker 3: Now, the six assurances that go to explaining.
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  Speaker 2: That communique also state that the United States would not
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  Speaker 2: negotiate with the PRC over arms sales to Taiwan.
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  Speaker 3: What President Trump.
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  Speaker 2: Has done about the situation when he talks about using
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  Speaker 2: arms sales as a possible negotiating chip. He also referred
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  Speaker 2: to that policy from the 80s as being.
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  Speaker 3: An old sort of policy that he might change.
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  Speaker 2: That sort of idea of creating a precedent where the
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  Speaker 2: United States will talk to the PRC about what it
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  Speaker 2: will or will not provide to Taiwan is probably the
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  Speaker 2: greatest source of concern. The arms sales itself, I think
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  Speaker 2: that is of lesser immediate concern for several reasons. First,
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  Speaker 2: there was a big arms sales already approved last year,
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  Speaker 2: and previous arms sales are undergoing current delivery. If there
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  Speaker 2: was an agreement to sell arms at this point in time,
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  Speaker 2: Given the U.S. backlog, the U.S. need to use arms
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  Speaker 2: in the Middle East, and the U.S. production levels, any
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  Speaker 2: actual items will not turn up for a while yet.
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  Speaker 2: So it's, I think, less about the arms sales themselves,
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  Speaker 2: but about opening the precedent where Beijing might have a
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  Speaker 2: veto over what Taiwan gets or does not get.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, for decades, it has been a fact that
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  Speaker 1: peace across the Taiwan Strait has depended partly on China's
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  Speaker 1: belief that the US would help Taiwan defend itself if necessary.
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  Speaker 1: Do episodes like this weaken that deterrent message? So even
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  Speaker 1: if nothing changes immediately, is there a sense that something
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  Speaker 1: is shifting?
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  Speaker 2: Right, so the concern is that there is... a shift
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  Speaker 2: in U.S. resolve and U.S.
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  Speaker 3: Commitment. So for Taiwan, that's the larger concern, that the U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Might not be as committed to keeping peace and stability
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  Speaker 2: in the Western Pacific as the Taiwan Relations Act would
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  Speaker 2: have it.
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  Speaker 3: Now, that, of course, would also affect other U.S.
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  Speaker 2: Allies from Korea to Japan to the Philippines and.
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  Speaker 3: Australia, of course.
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  Speaker 2: So it's rather the sort of larger potential shift and
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  Speaker 2: the inability to fully grasp what President Trump might do,
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  Speaker 2: where he might go, and the kind of support that
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  Speaker 2: he might get domestically within the United States that is
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  Speaker 2: of greater concern. And of course, as you rightly point out,
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  Speaker 2: part of the PRC's restraint is that they see the
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  Speaker 2: uncertainty of using force against Taiwan, the potential cost that
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  Speaker 2: they may have to bear as giving pause.
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  Speaker 3: To their more perhaps.
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  Speaker 2: Their willingness to use violence and to sort of take
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  Speaker 2: Taiwan by force.
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  Speaker 1: If Taiwan can no longer take U.S. support for granted
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  Speaker 1: to the same extent as it has in previous decades,
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  Speaker 1: what does this mean for its long-term security, its political future?
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  Speaker 1: And what can it do to prepare itself for a
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  Speaker 1: more uncertain political environment?
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  Speaker 2: So Taiwan has been doing several things already, really since
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  Speaker 2: before the second Trump term. One is it's been trying
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  Speaker 2: to ramp up its own domestic arms production with a
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  Speaker 2: particular focus on drone technology. And at the same time,
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  Speaker 2: it's been trying to forge closer defense relations, albeit informal,
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  Speaker 2: with the Japanese and also with the Philippines.
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  Speaker 3: Of course, all this is taking place with a degree
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  Speaker 3: of secrecy. You don't know how far they go. And
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  Speaker 3: within Taiwan.
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  Speaker 2: There is the opposition who believes that making nice to
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  Speaker 2: China is perhaps making nice to Beijing is probably the
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  Speaker 2: way to go. They've been blocking those arms sales. They've
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  Speaker 2: only very recently lifted their blockage. So there's going to
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  Speaker 2: be some domestic debate within Taiwan as well.
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  Speaker 1: You mentioned the Philippines earlier, and of course, Taiwan isn't
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  Speaker 1: the only US partner watching this closely. So countries like Japan,
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  Speaker 1: like the Philippines, what are they going to be thinking
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  Speaker 1: right now?
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  Speaker 2: So they are going to be looking closely at US
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  Speaker 2: commitment and also at US resolve, because for them, they
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  Speaker 2: have their own security concerns. They have outstanding security territorial
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  Speaker 2: disputes with the PRC. And the US alliance for them
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  Speaker 2: has also been a big piece in their ability to
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  Speaker 2: defend themselves and their ability to deter the use of
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  Speaker 2: force by the PRC and others, in Japan's case, North Korea.
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  Speaker 2: So if there's going to be a shift in US resolve,
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  Speaker 2: they will have to probably work harder on their own
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  Speaker 2: indigenous defensive capabilities and also looking for partners. Indeed, Japan
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  Speaker 2: has been trying to work more closely with South Korea,
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  Speaker 2: with the Philippines, with Australia, and also with the UK
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  Speaker 2: and Italy. The Philippines, too, it's been trying to explore
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  Speaker 2: relationships with Australia, South Korea, and Japan. So there is this,
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  Speaker 2: you know, other sort of more subtle movement where U.S.
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  Speaker 2: allies are looking for ways that they can work together
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  Speaker 2: to protect their own interests.
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  Speaker 1: And becoming less dependent on Washington's security guarantees?
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  Speaker 2: So I think they are not quite ready to let
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  Speaker 2: go of Washington's security guarantees, but they would want more insurance.
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  Speaker 3: They want more indigenous.
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  Speaker 2: Capacity to protect themselves and at least to send a
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  Speaker 2: signal to potential aggressors that even if you were able
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: to launch an attack, even if that attack was successful,
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  Speaker 2: it would be highly costly.
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  Speaker 1: So in conclusion, this offer, Trump's offer to sell weapons
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  Speaker 1: to China, whether it happens or not, does this reveal
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  Speaker 1: a sort of a fundamentally different approach to Taiwan and
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  Speaker 1: to America's role in Asia?
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  Speaker 2: So I think what it really reveals is this uncertainty
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  Speaker 2: and unpredictability about Trump. I don't think we have seen
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  Speaker 2: a definitive shift away from the U.S.
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  Speaker 3: Position on Taiwan.
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  Speaker 2: Indeed, before the Xi Jinping visit, we saw the U.S.,
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  Speaker 2: South Korea and Japan talk about the importance of Taiwan's
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  Speaker 2: security to their own national interests.
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  Speaker 3: So I don't think the fundamental position has shifted.
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  Speaker 2: What I think worries people is is that they don't
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  Speaker 2: know where Trump could take things. Before, you know, longstanding
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  Speaker 2: US policy across different presidential administrations from both parties have
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  Speaker 2: a pretty clear direction of travel. Now, even though that
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  Speaker 2: has not changed, the question is whether Trump will shift
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  Speaker 2: from that current trajectory and by how much.
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  Speaker 1: Ian Chong from the National University of Singapore. Ian, thank
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  Speaker 1: you so much for talking to us, for your insights.
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  Speaker 1: It's been great to talk to you. So what do
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  Speaker 1: you think? If the US were to sell weapons to China,
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  Speaker 1: its main geopolitical rival, what would that mean for players
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  Speaker 1: in the region like Taiwan? Let us know your thoughts
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  Speaker 1: in the comments. I'm Anya Coopers-McKinnon. Thank you for watching.
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  Speaker 1: I'll see you next time.