Latest / Politix / Baby Die, Die, Die (Die! Die!)
Transcript
- 0:00To be clear,
- 0:00as always,
- 0:01I think that there are two plausible outcomes here.
- 0:04SPEAKER_01: One is that we get what you want, which is a terrible idea and will fail.
- 0:08SPEAKER_01: And the other is it will get much worse than what you want.
- 0:16Hey,
- 0:16everyone,
- 0:16you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
- 0:20SPEAKER_00: This week, what if Donald Trump is actually dying?
- 0:23SPEAKER_00: I mean, he probably isn't.
- 0:25SPEAKER_00: We are on the bad timeline,
- 0:27SPEAKER_00: but it's surely worth contemplating,
- 0:30SPEAKER_00: especially after four years of Joe Biden death watch.
- 0:33SPEAKER_00: What happens to MAGA?
- 0:34SPEAKER_00: What happens to President Vance?
- 0:36SPEAKER_00: What effect does it have on Democratic politics?
- 0:39SPEAKER_00: Does Gavin Newsom tweet about it in all caps?
- 0:42Then we'll talk about the new and immediately embattled
- 0:45Democratic Party Influencer Program.
- 0:47Is this an effective way for the party to compete for the
- 0:50public's attention and
- 0:51SPEAKER_00: improve its image?
- 0:52SPEAKER_00: Does transparency even matter anymore?
- 0:55SPEAKER_00: If you want to hear the whole conversation,
- 0:56SPEAKER_00: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
- 0:59SPEAKER_00: Hey, everyone.
- 1:04SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
- 1:05SPEAKER_00: I'm Brian Boitler.
- 1:06SPEAKER_00: I'm Matthew Glacius.
- 1:08SPEAKER_00: So we're recording this Tuesday, September 2nd at 930 a.m.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: Eastern Time.
- 1:13SPEAKER_00: Apparently,
- 1:14the White House has scheduled something like like a proof of
- 1:17life event for Donald
- 1:18SPEAKER_00: Trump for this afternoon.
- 1:22Trump like more or less went missing and hasn't done any public
- 1:24events in almost a week.
- 1:26SPEAKER_01: So first he first he was like actually not seen.
- 1:30SPEAKER_01: And then he was like shuffling into cars and,
- 1:34SPEAKER_01: and golfing and was being photographed from a distance.
- 1:38SPEAKER_00: I don't even think we have proof that he was golfing.
- 1:40SPEAKER_00: He was in golf attire at golf.
- 1:43SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 1:44SPEAKER_01: He went to the golf course.
- 1:45SPEAKER_01: He was photographed heading there.
- 1:47And then they seem to have released some photos that were of
- 1:50him golfing actually
- 1:52SPEAKER_01: months ago,
- 1:53SPEAKER_01: including like one where there were palm trees in the background.
- 1:57SPEAKER_01: So it further raised questions.
- 1:59SPEAKER_01: He hasn't spoken to the press,
- 2:01SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
- 2:01SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
- 2:02SPEAKER_01: in days,
- 2:02SPEAKER_01: but it's going to happen at the 2 p.m.
- 2:04SPEAKER_01: announcement.
- 2:05SPEAKER_00: We think.
- 2:06SPEAKER_00: Maybe they're just going to wheel out.
- 2:08SPEAKER_00: They wouldn't have to wheel.
- 2:09SPEAKER_00: Maybe President Vance will stride out.
- 2:12SPEAKER_01: Very embarrassing for our recording schedule.
- 2:15I mean,
- 2:16because what the release says is that the president will make
- 2:19remarks at 2 p.m.
- 2:20SPEAKER_01: If that is President Vance, it will be on our face.
- 2:24SPEAKER_01: If we're going with the presumption that Trump is not dead,
- 2:28but perhaps was under the weather and they didn't want to
- 2:30discuss exactly what was
- 2:33SPEAKER_01: going on.
- 2:34SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 2:34SPEAKER_00: it probably is that he got COVID,
- 2:36SPEAKER_00: but he couldn't get a jab because of Robert F.
- 2:39SPEAKER_00: Kennedy Jr.
- 2:40So he just drank some sewage water or whatever Maha says you
- 2:44should do if you get COVID.
- 2:45And now he's just feeling terrible because he didn't have
- 2:49standard of care medicine
- 2:50SPEAKER_00: in the United States.
- 2:52SPEAKER_01: That's actually a good question.
- 2:53SPEAKER_01: Has he gotten any COVID boosters?
- 2:55SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
- 2:56SPEAKER_00: my recollection is that when this was last,
- 2:58SPEAKER_00: the live question,
- 2:59SPEAKER_00: they were transparent about it when he got the initial COVID shot.
- 3:03Obviously,
- 3:03they were transparent about it when he got COVID and went to
- 3:06Walter Reed.
- 3:08But then my recollection is that they started being real cagey
- 3:11about not saying one
- 3:13SPEAKER_00: way or another,
- 3:13which is the strong implication is that he continues to get
- 3:17COVID vaccines,
- 3:18even though he leads the political movement trying to
- 3:21discourage vaccination.
- 3:22SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 3:24SPEAKER_00: But there was... These are the worst people in the fucking world.
- 3:28SPEAKER_01: While Trump's been out of view,
- 3:29SPEAKER_01: though,
- 3:30he did a truth social post that seemed like it wasn't really in
- 3:34his voice that was
- 3:35SPEAKER_01: like,
- 3:36SPEAKER_01: we need to like...
- 3:37SPEAKER_01: He was saying we need to get a handle on this whole vaccine thing.
- 3:41SPEAKER_01: Oh, I thought that was really him.
- 3:42SPEAKER_01: Because the CDC is being torn apart.
- 3:44SPEAKER_01: No, it had some weird turns of phrase that weren't typical of his.
- 3:48SPEAKER_01: Well, and also, it's just like it didn't pick a side.
- 3:51SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 3:52SPEAKER_01: It was...
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: It was,
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: like,
- 3:53SPEAKER_01: tweeted,
- 3:54SPEAKER_01: like,
- 3:54SPEAKER_01: somebody on his team was annoyed that all this was happening because— Oh,
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: yeah.
- 3:59SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 3:59I think that they are finding that people are really unhappy
- 4:02that they can't just
- 4:03walk into a CVS and get a COVID shot like the flu shot because
- 4:06of dumb MAGA
- 4:08SPEAKER_00: politics and that they're on the losing side of that.
- 4:10SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 4:11SPEAKER_00: I know that it's,
- 4:12SPEAKER_00: like,
- 4:12SPEAKER_00: been flipped,
- 4:14SPEAKER_00: turned upside down a hundred different ways,
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: but,
- 4:17SPEAKER_00: like—
- 4:18all of the bad things about COVID were basically Republicans
- 4:20fault and Democrats
- 4:22SPEAKER_00: basically did the best they could under terrible circumstances.
- 4:25And this has been retconned in people's mind that like
- 4:28Democrats fucked up COVID,
- 4:30SPEAKER_00: but really it was Trump.
- 4:32SPEAKER_00: And, uh, and I don't agree with that at all.
- 4:35SPEAKER_01: It's like, it makes me so upset when you say that.
- 4:37SPEAKER_01: Like,
- 4:38SPEAKER_01: I think like,
- 4:39SPEAKER_01: I really think that like you and other people like this,
- 4:42SPEAKER_01: like need to get like some grip on like how aggravating is.
- 4:47SPEAKER_01: the COVID policies of the Biden administration were.
- 4:52SPEAKER_00: I know you found everything about that period very annoying.
- 4:55SPEAKER_00: I did too.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: It was a pandemic.
- 4:56SPEAKER_00: It really sucked.
- 4:59SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
- 5:02I think that it has left the Republican Party of the view or of
- 5:05the instinct that
- 5:07anti-any kind of mitigation policy is always good politics and
- 5:12people will reward
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: you for not blah,
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: blah,
- 5:13SPEAKER_00: blah.
- 5:14SPEAKER_01: Yes, I think the lesson, one of the lessons of the
- 5:20from Trump to Biden is that it is much easier to assemble a
- 5:25coalition of people who
- 5:26are aggravated by the way the government is handling something
- 5:31like COVID than it
- 5:33SPEAKER_01: is to articulate your own handling.
- 5:38SPEAKER_01: of how things should be done, right?
- 5:40SPEAKER_01: So when Biden was running for president,
- 5:43he did a great job of making a lot of different stakeholders
- 5:46feel like he was gonna
- 5:47SPEAKER_01: do a way better job than Donald Trump.
- 5:50SPEAKER_01: But once he had to actually start making specific calls,
- 5:54it was harder to make everyone who had voted for him agree with
- 5:58all of those calls
- 5:58SPEAKER_01: that he made.
- 6:00SPEAKER_01: Then Trump was able to bring together
- 6:03a bunch of different people who were aggravated in different
- 6:05ways by different
- 6:06SPEAKER_01: Biden administration calls.
- 6:07But like now you're in and you on the one hand have like real
- 6:11ideologues like
- 6:12Kennedy who want to like eliminate the American vaccination
- 6:15system and plenty of
- 6:17SPEAKER_01: other people.
- 6:18SPEAKER_01: I mean, most Republicans got vaccinated.
- 6:22SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 6:23Like it's like and so and so he now has this this truth post
- 6:28where he is like,
- 6:31with the CDC being ripped apart over this question,
- 6:34I want the answer and I want it now.
- 6:37SPEAKER_01: And all this other stuff, right?
- 6:38SPEAKER_01: Like he doesn't.
- 6:39SPEAKER_00: But the answers are there.
- 6:40SPEAKER_00: They're like, this is a well-studied thing at this point.
- 6:43SPEAKER_00: Look,
- 6:44SPEAKER_00: I just,
- 6:46SPEAKER_00: I'm happy to concede just about everything,
- 6:47SPEAKER_00: but I do want the record to reflect that in 2020,
- 6:50SPEAKER_00: you had constant lying about COVID.
- 6:52Yeah.
- 6:53SPEAKER_00: Hydroxychloroquine and ivermectin, all kinds of bullshit all the time.
- 6:58Followed by four years of Biden where like calls around the
- 7:01edges about when and
- 7:03SPEAKER_00: where to mask and for how long annoyed some people.
- 7:05And now we're back in the Trump era and it's like pulling
- 7:08vaccines off the market.
- 7:09SPEAKER_00: And I'm just saying that the Biden approach was much,
- 7:12SPEAKER_00: much,
- 7:12SPEAKER_00: much sounder than the the the Trump sandwich bread.
- 7:16SPEAKER_01: So I voted for.
- 7:20SPEAKER_01: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
- 7:22SPEAKER_00: I know, I know.
- 7:23SPEAKER_01: So I think it's fine.
- 7:25SPEAKER_00: Okay.
- 7:27SPEAKER_00: Let's get back to Trump dying something more hopeful.
- 7:30SPEAKER_01: Okay.
- 7:31SPEAKER_01: So I feel like,
- 7:32SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 7:34SPEAKER_01: I felt like this truth,
- 7:36SPEAKER_01: this truth post,
- 7:38SPEAKER_01: to me it was,
- 7:39SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 7:40SPEAKER_01: who knows?
- 7:40SPEAKER_01: You never know what's going on.
- 7:42SPEAKER_02: But, you know, I would say it's Trump being indecisive.
- 7:50SPEAKER_01: About something, right?
- 7:51SPEAKER_03: Which is normal.
- 7:53SPEAKER_01: To an extent.
- 7:54SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 7:55SPEAKER_01: I think about like his own administration's policies,
- 7:58where he's like seemingly trying to distance himself from the
- 8:01chaos that's being
- 8:02SPEAKER_01: unleashed at HHS without like actually doing anything.
- 8:08SPEAKER_01: Because,
- 8:08SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: like this woman,
- 8:09SPEAKER_01: Susan Munares,
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: right,
- 8:10SPEAKER_01: the CDC director who Kennedy picked out.
- 8:13SPEAKER_01: I mean, she's a Trump appointee.
- 8:15SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 8:16And like there's all kinds of conflicts between most and more
- 8:19on the food stuff
- 8:20than on the pharmaceutical end between like Kennedy's views and
- 8:25other stakeholders
- 8:26SPEAKER_01: in the kind of Trump administration.
- 8:28This is like the kind of thing where like an active and with it
- 8:31president is
- 8:32SPEAKER_01: supposed to be,
- 8:32SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 8:34making decisions and not having like the firing of an agency
- 8:38head be sort of
- 8:39SPEAKER_01: attributed to the cabinet secretary.
- 8:42SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 8:43SPEAKER_01: Well, so rather than like, like, did Donald Trump fire her?
- 8:46SPEAKER_01: Like, yes.
- 8:47So I think people missed the significance of this because they
- 8:51tried to they tried
- 8:52SPEAKER_00: to like push her out by tweet from the H from HHS.
- 8:55SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 8:55SPEAKER_00: So that would be like Kennedy firing the CDC director.
- 8:58And then she immediately lawyered up and was like,
- 9:00only the president can fire me.
- 9:02SPEAKER_00: And the White House did not want to put Trump's name on that.
- 9:05SPEAKER_00: They said the White House has fired her.
- 9:06Like they were trying to set up a situation where if the
- 9:11politics of this like went
- 9:13SPEAKER_00: sideways for them,
- 9:14SPEAKER_00: which I think it basically did right away,
- 9:16Trump would be able to pull that thing that he always does
- 9:18where he's like,
- 9:19SPEAKER_00: I don't know anything about it.
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 9:20SPEAKER_00: That's, you know, and it didn't work because.
- 9:23But also he was in a medically induced coma to treat his purple
- 9:26hand syndrome the whole time.
- 9:27SPEAKER_01: I mean, he legitimately didn't know.
- 9:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 9:31SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I don't know, you know?
- 9:32So I think that there is somebody smart at the White House who
- 9:35realizes that Robert
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: F.
- 9:38SPEAKER_00: Kennedy Jr.
- 9:39basically trying to collapse the pharmaceutical research
- 9:41industry and replace it
- 9:42SPEAKER_00: with random wellness influencer bullshit is actually losing politics,
- 9:46even though it plays much better online than just trusting
- 9:52experts and things like
- 9:52SPEAKER_00: that.
- 9:53SPEAKER_00: And they're trying to keep Trump's hands clean of it, and it's just not—
- 9:57Not sustainable,
- 9:58given that the law essentially required Trump to make this
- 10:02decision.
- 10:02SPEAKER_00: Are you going to fire this person?
- 10:05SPEAKER_00: And so that person, I guess, is gone.
- 10:06SPEAKER_00: I guess Trump eventually did fire her.
- 10:09SPEAKER_00: But now he needs to get this issue off of his plate again.
- 10:12SPEAKER_00: And so that's what I read this tweet as being about,
- 10:15SPEAKER_00: is kicking it right back to CDC and Kennedy and like –
- 10:21Make it so that people can get their COVID shots without a
- 10:25hassle so that it
- 10:26SPEAKER_00: doesn't blow back on me.
- 10:28SPEAKER_00: And I kind of half expect a rollback.
- 10:33SPEAKER_01: How are your mitochondria?
- 10:36SPEAKER_00: They're distressed.
- 10:38SPEAKER_00: Constantly distressed.
- 10:40Okay,
- 10:40I mean,
- 10:41like,
- 10:42Trump may have mitochondrial distress of the ankles and of the
- 10:46palms.
- 10:47I think people think that his mitochondrial distress is causing
- 10:51him either
- 10:52SPEAKER_00: congestive heart failure or mini strokes,
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: right?
- 10:56SPEAKER_00: Like TIAs.
- 11:01Are there any other good theories about what's actually going
- 11:03on with him that they
- 11:04SPEAKER_00: are trying to keep him away from the press?
- 11:06SPEAKER_00: Like, he loves...
- 11:08SPEAKER_00: Being the center of attention.
- 11:09SPEAKER_00: And it's very weird for him to take six days like this away.
- 11:16SPEAKER_01: I think he got strep throat.
- 11:19SPEAKER_01: And he's just been feeling real sick and he sounds like garbage.
- 11:23I mean,
- 11:24but the thing is,
- 11:25there's nothing embarrassing or emasculating about strep
- 11:28throat.
- 11:29SPEAKER_00: Like they could have just, if it were an explanation like that.
- 11:32SPEAKER_03: Mm-hmm.
- 11:34They could have just said he doesn't feel good because he's got
- 11:36strep throat.
- 11:37SPEAKER_00: I think if it were COVID,
- 11:38SPEAKER_00: I think if it were COVID because of the dumb MAGA politics of COVID,
- 11:43they would not want to admit that Trump got COVID and that it
- 11:45had made him feel so
- 11:46SPEAKER_00: bad that he had to take six days.
- 11:47SPEAKER_01: Or if you want a vaccine link, shingles.
- 11:52SPEAKER_00: Oh, he's surely vaccinated for shingles, right?
- 11:54SPEAKER_01: Maybe.
- 11:56SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
- 11:57SPEAKER_00: I don't know how that works.
- 11:58SPEAKER_01: That's got to be a noble.
- 11:59I know that the Biden administration made the shingles vaccine
- 12:01free for America's
- 12:02SPEAKER_01: heroic senior citizens.
- 12:04Yeah,
- 12:05but it's basically standard for everyone 50 and older,
- 12:09I thought,
- 12:09right?
- 12:09SPEAKER_01: I have no idea.
- 12:10SPEAKER_00: I'm not 50 and older.
- 12:12SPEAKER_01: Don't call me old.
- 12:13I don't know anything about shingles,
- 12:15any kind of old man health problems.
- 12:18SPEAKER_01: My mitochondria are firing on all cylinders.
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: OK,
- 12:24SPEAKER_00: so obviously,
- 12:25like if Trump just let me tell you how I've been thinking about
- 12:29the like post Trump
- 12:30SPEAKER_00: moment.
- 12:32SPEAKER_00: One is that he just like his heart explodes and he's gone.
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: Right.
- 12:35SPEAKER_00: And I I feel like.
- 12:38SPEAKER_00: there's both very little and a ton of ambiguity.
- 12:42SPEAKER_00: Like, it's not ambiguous what would happen is that J.D.
- 12:44Vance would become president and he would have to make some
- 12:47decisions about
- 12:49Whether to act like an heir to Trump or whether to do his own
- 12:52thing,
- 12:52right?
- 12:53SPEAKER_00: Like, would he clean house in the White House?
- 12:55SPEAKER_00: Would he keep Stephen Miller around?
- 12:58SPEAKER_00: You know, those kinds of questions.
- 12:59And would he be able to hold the MAGA cinematic universe
- 13:03together so they don't
- 13:04SPEAKER_00: descend into civil war?
- 13:07Because there would be a huge power vacuum that lots of
- 13:09different people would want to fill.
- 13:11SPEAKER_00: I mean, that's a challenge.
- 13:11SPEAKER_00: I don't actually suspect that he's really up to it.
- 13:15But I think that at least like the things that would happen
- 13:19from Trump dying onward
- 13:21SPEAKER_00: within MAGA are kind of easy to anticipate.
- 13:24SPEAKER_00: If it's like a clean, the ticker stops ticking.
- 13:28kind of thing but then there's a world where he becomes
- 13:31increasingly enfeebled um
- 13:33and that's the one where i feel like things could go totally
- 13:35off the rails because
- 13:36there's no like there's no ambiguity about what's supposed to
- 13:39happen if the
- 13:39president dies but if the president is increasingly sick over
- 13:42time if the president
- 13:44becomes disabled to some degree and it's unclear whether it's a
- 13:48permanent or
- 13:49temporary disability there's no i mean there are processes
- 13:52right there's a 25th
- 13:53SPEAKER_00: amendment process there's
- 13:55But there's no strict instruction about what you should do
- 13:59under what circumstances.
- 14:00SPEAKER_00: And so you have like Donald Trump Jr.
- 14:02SPEAKER_00: and Eric being like, no, he's still the king, right?
- 14:04Because versus Vance being like,
- 14:07oh,
- 14:07but we can't run the government with Trump.
- 14:10SPEAKER_00: I at least need to take over temporarily via this 25th Amendment process.
- 14:14SPEAKER_01: Well, I do have to say, I mean, we recently did get –
- 14:18SPEAKER_01: Something of a...
- 14:19SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 14:20SPEAKER_01: nobody wants to say this,
- 14:22but I kind of feel like diminished Biden ceding power de facto
- 14:29to a council of
- 14:31SPEAKER_01: senior White House officials,
- 14:34SPEAKER_01: like,
- 14:35SPEAKER_01: worked fine.
- 14:40Like the politics of it weren't good because he wasn't doing
- 14:44public appearances.
- 14:45SPEAKER_01: He wasn't defending his administration's policies in an interesting way.
- 14:49SPEAKER_01: He wasn't...
- 14:54SPEAKER_01: getting out ahead of the curve on like relatively unimportant,
- 14:59but sort of politically explosive landmines scattered around
- 15:04the administrative
- 15:04SPEAKER_01: state.
- 15:05SPEAKER_01: But like,
- 15:06you know- Do you just simply not believe Jake Sullivan and Tony
- 15:10Blinken and people
- 15:11SPEAKER_00: like that who say whatever his political enfeeblement was at the time,
- 15:15SPEAKER_00: his inability to advocate for the administration publicly,
- 15:18SPEAKER_00: blah,
- 15:18SPEAKER_00: blah,
- 15:18SPEAKER_00: blah.
- 15:19SPEAKER_00: He was doing the job, I know, because I was-
- 15:21SPEAKER_00: carrying out his instructions?
- 15:23SPEAKER_00: Like, do you think that they're full of it or?
- 15:25SPEAKER_01: I mean, I think that all presidents have a limited calendar in their day.
- 15:29SPEAKER_01: That in all administrations, not every decision goes to the president.
- 15:34SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 15:35SPEAKER_01: That when foreign crises emerge,
- 15:37there is a tendency for those to edge out sort of
- 15:41run-of-the-mill domestic
- 15:43SPEAKER_01: political issues.
- 15:45SPEAKER_01: And that all of those things happened with the Biden administration.
- 15:49SPEAKER_01: to a larger degree than they had happened with Obama and Bill Clinton,
- 15:54who are the two other presidents who people I know have
- 15:58firsthand experience with
- 16:00SPEAKER_01: how their White Houses worked.
- 16:02And I just think part of the point of that is that there's
- 16:04never a hard line,
- 16:08SPEAKER_01: you know what I mean,
- 16:11SPEAKER_01: around these things.
- 16:14SPEAKER_00: No,
- 16:15but I do think that between every Republican saying this
- 16:18because it's what they're
- 16:18supposed to say and a lot of people kind of in the center and
- 16:23maybe even just
- 16:24SPEAKER_00: normie Democratic voters,
- 16:26they have come to believe that it was basically weekend at
- 16:29Bernie's for the last
- 16:31SPEAKER_00: year or so of the Biden presidency.
- 16:33SPEAKER_01: Well, that's why I'm saying like nobody wants to say this, but –
- 16:40It just seems to me that people have various dissatisfactions
- 16:44with the kind of a
- 16:45SPEAKER_01: substance of the Biden administration.
- 16:49SPEAKER_01: And it's easy to kind of connect that to.
- 16:57some of this other stuff if you want to,
- 16:59but we don't have good evidence that that's the case.
- 17:02SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 17:03SPEAKER_01: I think the most striking thing, forget what Jake Sullivan says.
- 17:10SPEAKER_01: Read the Jake Tapper book.
- 17:12SPEAKER_01: Because you know that the point of that book is to maximize the thesis.
- 17:18SPEAKER_01: Biden's age was a big problem.
- 17:22SPEAKER_01: And when you get to like brass tacks,
- 17:25like what substantive outcomes does any of like Tapper's
- 17:30sources attribute to
- 17:33SPEAKER_01: Biden's age?
- 17:34Like the best you have is speculation from Michael Bennett that
- 17:41this slowness of
- 17:42the decision making on asylum seekers was due to the
- 17:46president's like limited hours
- 17:48SPEAKER_01: in the day.
- 17:49SPEAKER_01: I think that's probably right, but it's not that clear.
- 17:58SPEAKER_01: You know, and that's all they've got, right?
- 18:01SPEAKER_01: And like they were looking for it.
- 18:02SPEAKER_01: And I think with a lot of reporting,
- 18:04SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 18:04SPEAKER_01: not just their reporting on this topic,
- 18:06SPEAKER_01: but with any kind of reporting,
- 18:07SPEAKER_01: like you need to read it a little bit against the grain,
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: right?
- 18:10SPEAKER_01: It's like, what is the thesis here?
- 18:12SPEAKER_01: What's the story that the journalists are after?
- 18:16SPEAKER_01: And like, what did they not come up with?
- 18:18SPEAKER_01: You know,
- 18:18and like what they did not come up with in there is a clear cut
- 18:22example of somebody
- 18:24SPEAKER_01: being like,
- 18:26SPEAKER_01: I had this like amazing proposal to do something,
- 18:31SPEAKER_01: something.
- 18:31SPEAKER_01: And then, you know, like there was like a breakdown, right?
- 18:34It's like you have various sort of embarrassing anecdotes from
- 18:39what are really
- 18:40SPEAKER_01: political meet and greets.
- 18:42SPEAKER_01: Um,
- 18:43SPEAKER_01: and you know,
- 18:43it's possible that there's like big stuff on substance that
- 18:46they just didn't get
- 18:47SPEAKER_01: the goods on,
- 18:48but like they were clearly looking for the goods and they did
- 18:50not have really
- 18:53SPEAKER_01: clear,
- 18:54SPEAKER_01: uh,
- 18:54SPEAKER_01: evidence of things.
- 18:57SPEAKER_01: I don't know that this is exculpatory or not.
- 18:59Like one of the main things that you would say with the whole
- 19:02Biden White House is
- 19:03SPEAKER_01: that the gears turn pretty slowly on making certain kinds of decisions.
- 19:07But it's also true that if you ask people who were working in
- 19:10the White House in
- 19:11SPEAKER_01: 2015,
- 19:11SPEAKER_01: like if you ask them in 2015,
- 19:14SPEAKER_01: like what do you think about Joe Biden as a potential president?
- 19:17SPEAKER_01: Like this was one of the main criticisms that they had to offer of him.
- 19:23SPEAKER_01: 10 years ago, was that like, he didn't run crisp orderly meetings.
- 19:28SPEAKER_01: He didn't like to make decisions, et cetera, et cetera.
- 19:30SPEAKER_01: Similarly with Trump, right?
- 19:32Like if I was to tell you that like Donald Trump has not
- 19:38assembled a meeting of his
- 19:39SPEAKER_01: senior advisors in which they try to square the circle between,
- 19:43SPEAKER_01: like they want the Fed to cut interest rates,
- 19:46SPEAKER_01: right?
- 19:47SPEAKER_01: But inflation is up.
- 19:50SPEAKER_01: So substantively,
- 19:51the reason the Fed might want to ignore the uptick in inflation
- 19:55and cut interest
- 19:56rates anyway is that there's good reason to think that the
- 19:59increase in inflation is
- 20:00SPEAKER_01: due to the tariffs.
- 20:02SPEAKER_01: So it's like a non-monetary thing that the Fed ought to ignore.
- 20:06SPEAKER_01: A responsible president would be like,
- 20:09trying to reconcile their monetary policy preferences with
- 20:13Scott Bessett's claim
- 20:14SPEAKER_01: that the tariffs aren't inflationary,
- 20:15SPEAKER_01: like it doesn't make sense,
- 20:17SPEAKER_01: right?
- 20:18Do I think that the reason Trump is not getting his people to
- 20:21have a coherent
- 20:22message on this is because he's too old or because he's like a
- 20:25lying piece of shit
- 20:26SPEAKER_01: or like he just doesn't give a damn about,
- 20:28SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 20:28SPEAKER_01: it's like,
- 20:29SPEAKER_01: it's hard to tell,
- 20:30SPEAKER_01: right?
- 20:30Like everything Trump is doing is completely continuous with
- 20:33everything we've ever
- 20:34SPEAKER_01: seen of Trump.
- 20:35SPEAKER_01: throughout his whole career.
- 20:37There's no like – Do you think this is insulating him from
- 20:41press inquiry about
- 20:41SPEAKER_00: what's actually going on with his health?
- 20:43Like do you get the sense that there are Jake Tappers and Alex
- 20:46Thompsons like
- 20:47trying to get to the bottom of what's – like did the president
- 20:50have a bunch of mini
- 20:50SPEAKER_00: strokes and they're hiding?
- 20:51SPEAKER_00: Like that's actually a very important question.
- 20:54I think it is notable that the volume of leaking and just like
- 20:59juicy reportage is
- 21:01SPEAKER_01: way down compared to where it was eight years ago.
- 21:04SPEAKER_00: People are way more scared, I think.
- 21:06SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but the senior aides are more tight-lipped.
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 21:10SPEAKER_01: Like about whatever, right?
- 21:12SPEAKER_01: And this was also a noteworthy aspect of the Biden administration, right?
- 21:18SPEAKER_01: We heard way less from Biden appointees about like,
- 21:24SPEAKER_01: what's up,
- 21:25SPEAKER_01: than we did with the Obama administration,
- 21:27SPEAKER_01: right?
- 21:28SPEAKER_01: Like not age stuff, right?
- 21:29SPEAKER_01: Just like policy debates.
- 21:31SPEAKER_01: And Trump was like—Trump 1 was like a bleak catastrophe, right?
- 21:37And so if you were seeing the kind of reporting that we were
- 21:40seeing in Trump 1,
- 21:42about like behind the scenes arguments about questions of
- 21:45policy substance,
- 21:46SPEAKER_01: then I would feel very confident.
- 21:48Like if there was some like giant purple hand to cover up,
- 21:51like we would be hearing about that.
- 21:53SPEAKER_01: But this time they have gotten their information locked down, right?
- 21:58Like we are not getting insight into how the agriculture
- 22:03department and DHS are
- 22:05SPEAKER_01: navigating conflicts about,
- 22:09SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 22:10worksite raids at meatpacking plants versus agribusiness
- 22:14interests and inflation.
- 22:15SPEAKER_01: But, you know, it's just like they've got their leaks.
- 22:19You know,
- 22:19I feel like I feel like I feel like you're correct about that
- 22:23now.
- 22:23SPEAKER_00: But that when Elon Musk was basically running the show,
- 22:26SPEAKER_00: a period which we've all but forgotten,
- 22:28SPEAKER_00: but which was quite significant.
- 22:30There was a lot of leaking about,
- 22:32you know,
- 22:33fights between Elon Musk and Besson and Elon Musk.
- 22:36SPEAKER_00: And what's his name?
- 22:39SPEAKER_00: former Wisconsin house dude who runs the transportation department.
- 22:41SPEAKER_00: Oh, Scott Duffy.
- 22:42SPEAKER_00: Used to be in real world.
- 22:43SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 22:43SPEAKER_00: He's got Sean Duffy.
- 22:47SPEAKER_00: Sean, we suck at this politics podcasting game.
- 22:51SPEAKER_01: That's the, that's the, that's the age.
- 22:53SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 22:55SPEAKER_00: Or possibly the vaccine.
- 22:56SPEAKER_00: No, it's just our mitochondria slowing down, getting all sluggish.
- 23:00SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 23:01Like all like that,
- 23:02there was a lot of leaking for those first,
- 23:04whatever it was,
- 23:04120 days.
- 23:06SPEAKER_00: And it slowed way down.
- 23:09SPEAKER_00: likely suggestive of Elon Musk being a big fucking leaker.
- 23:13SPEAKER_00: But yeah,
- 23:15SPEAKER_00: like,
- 23:16SPEAKER_00: I feel like I have much less clarity about what,
- 23:19SPEAKER_00: like,
- 23:19SPEAKER_00: the only clue I have as to,
- 23:22SPEAKER_00: like,
- 23:23SPEAKER_00: whether to put any stock in all the speculation is that J.D.
- 23:26SPEAKER_00: Vance is acting weird about it, right?
- 23:27Like,
- 23:28he is picking occasions to be like,
- 23:31the president is obviously in perfect health.
- 23:33However,
- 23:33if something happens,
- 23:34I've had 200 days of on-the-job training,
- 23:36you know?
- 23:37SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, it's interesting.
- 23:39OK,
- 23:40so I mean,
- 23:41I want to hear your thoughts,
- 23:42though,
- 23:43about like what I mean.
- 23:44SPEAKER_00: OK,
- 23:47maybe maybe the best way to like get people to think about like
- 23:51life after Trump,
- 23:52if something were to happen to Trump while he was still in
- 23:54office is to think about
- 23:56SPEAKER_00: like what the public reaction to it would be,
- 24:01SPEAKER_00: because like I think.
- 24:04There's a good chance that MAGA descends into civil war and
- 24:07that there would be a
- 24:08SPEAKER_00: big opportunity,
- 24:09SPEAKER_00: I think,
- 24:09SPEAKER_00: for Democrats to kind of nurture that conflict within MAGA.
- 24:15But that there would also just end up being a bunch of
- 24:18infighting among Democrats,
- 24:20SPEAKER_00: too,
- 24:20SPEAKER_00: because like if it happens –
- 24:23SPEAKER_00: Like Wednesday, Thursday, whatever.
- 24:25SPEAKER_00: Like every major city in America is going to erupt in celebration, right?
- 24:28SPEAKER_00: Like it's going to be a huge party.
- 24:30SPEAKER_00: People are going to crack champagne bottles open in the streets.
- 24:33Like I would – I mean this is one of these things where like we
- 24:37all know what's
- 24:37SPEAKER_01: going to happen,
- 24:38SPEAKER_01: right?
- 24:38Which is that like some liberals will celebrate the death of
- 24:43Donald Trump.
- 24:45SPEAKER_01: Right.
- 24:46SPEAKER_01: And conservatives will criticize the liberals.
- 24:49SPEAKER_00: Well,
- 24:49and that's like MAGA might go into cities and just try to shoot
- 24:53people for being
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: insensitive.
- 24:54SPEAKER_00: No, no, no.
- 24:54But I'm saying just like,
- 24:56there's like just like a very predictable story that's going to
- 24:59play.
- 24:59We're like initially safe blue seat Democratic Party
- 25:04politicians are like not going
- 25:08SPEAKER_01: to do any like crazy over the top,
- 25:11SPEAKER_01: like ding dong,
- 25:12SPEAKER_01: the witch is dead type stuff.
- 25:14But grassroots,
- 25:16you know,
- 25:17Democrats will because people like really hate Donald Trump,
- 25:20right?
- 25:20SPEAKER_01: And they say, oh my God, like this is so incredible.
- 25:23SPEAKER_01: And conservatives will attack the people who are doing that.
- 25:26SPEAKER_01: And somebody probably,
- 25:29SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 25:29SPEAKER_01: frontline elected officials,
- 25:31SPEAKER_01: somebody from Trump district will be like,
- 25:34SPEAKER_01: I don't know,
- 25:34SPEAKER_01: guys,
- 25:34SPEAKER_01: like this is pretty appropriate,
- 25:36SPEAKER_01: inappropriate.
- 25:37At which point,
- 25:38like the resistance pundits are going to yell at that guy.
- 25:42SPEAKER_01: Then some of your,
- 25:43SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 25:43SPEAKER_01: your Newsoms,
- 25:44SPEAKER_01: your Pritzkers,
- 25:45SPEAKER_01: your like big blue state politicians are going to be like,
- 25:49SPEAKER_01: fuck Trump,
- 25:50SPEAKER_01: man,
- 25:51SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 25:51SPEAKER_01: like,
- 25:52SPEAKER_01: and we're going to descend into this just like incredibly predictable.
- 25:57SPEAKER_01: cycle of infighting and meditakes and meditakes and meditakes.
- 26:02And it's like,
- 26:03this is why you're right about,
- 26:05you're right about all of this.
- 26:06SPEAKER_00: The,
- 26:07SPEAKER_00: the,
- 26:08SPEAKER_00: the thing to want is for the,
- 26:11SPEAKER_00: for like the,
- 26:12SPEAKER_00: the leadership and frontline Democrats to just,
- 26:15Except right now that the demand of them is not going to be to
- 26:19hagiographize Trump
- 26:21SPEAKER_00: after he dies,
- 26:22SPEAKER_00: right?
- 26:22SPEAKER_00: Like, okay, I pulled something up, an oldie but goodie.
- 26:26SPEAKER_03: Yeah.
- 26:26SPEAKER_00: It says, conventions around dead people are ridiculous.
- 26:29SPEAKER_00: The world outlook is slightly improved with at Andrew Breitbart dead.
- 26:33SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 26:34SPEAKER_00: You remember that?
- 26:34SPEAKER_01: Yeah, ferocious backlash.
- 26:36SPEAKER_01: I mean, this is just why I...
- 26:41SPEAKER_00: Your point about this was correct, I think.
- 26:46SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 26:47SPEAKER_00: we can't play twice,
- 26:48SPEAKER_00: but I would not advise any elected Democrats to pop champagne bottles,
- 26:53but I would advise them to be real about the fact that this is
- 26:56no great tragedy,
- 26:57SPEAKER_00: right?
- 26:58SPEAKER_00: Like, don't attend his funeral.
- 27:00SPEAKER_00: Don't.
- 27:01SPEAKER_00: Like,
- 27:01filibuster every Republican proposal to name shit after him
- 27:04because they are going
- 27:05SPEAKER_00: to try to name everything after him.
- 27:06Like,
- 27:07go after Vance and all vulnerable Republicans for covering up
- 27:11his medical condition.
- 27:13SPEAKER_00: Like, they left America vulnerable by wrapping up a half corpse.
- 27:15Part of the way this goes,
- 27:17because,
- 27:17like,
- 27:17everything is just this kind of,
- 27:19like,
- 27:19endless war.
- 27:20SPEAKER_02: Like, whatever it is that is done, right?
- 27:27SPEAKER_02: Like...
- 27:28SPEAKER_01: People will say it's not enough.
- 27:32It's like you are going to end up wanting to ask something of
- 27:37congressional
- 27:37SPEAKER_01: leadership that they won't want to do.
- 27:41SPEAKER_00: Whatever it is.
- 27:42SPEAKER_00: Just not go to his funeral.
- 27:43SPEAKER_00: Just not attend.
- 27:44SPEAKER_00: Not dignify the dude.
- 27:46And I don't think it's just because our egos about how Trump
- 27:51has abused us should
- 27:54SPEAKER_00: make us bitter and resentful toward him,
- 27:58SPEAKER_00: although that's definitely true.
- 28:00SPEAKER_00: It's like—
- 28:02A reminder to people of the United States that the way Donald
- 28:06Trump has carried
- 28:07himself for the last 10 years is toxic and corrosive and should
- 28:13not be celebrated.
- 28:14SPEAKER_00: This is what I think.
- 28:16SPEAKER_00: Death is how you unplug that, right?
- 28:22And we should not be like,
- 28:23well,
- 28:23it's a tragedy that he's gone because it's not.
- 28:26I think that there needs to be like Ken Martin instead of
- 28:31whatever the fuck he's been doing.
- 28:33SPEAKER_01: It's been so bad, right?
- 28:35SPEAKER_01: Yes.
- 28:35SPEAKER_01: He needs to appoint an emergency commission, right?
- 28:41SPEAKER_01: That's like Ilhan Omar, Jared Golden, J.B.
- 28:47SPEAKER_01: Pritzker,
- 28:49SPEAKER_01: Alyssa Slotkin,
- 28:51SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 28:52SPEAKER_01: and fucking,
- 28:54SPEAKER_01: I don't know who,
- 28:56SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 28:56SPEAKER_01: somebody from like Nevada,
- 28:58SPEAKER_01: Oregon,
- 28:58SPEAKER_01: whatever.
- 28:59SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 29:00SPEAKER_01: And they just like,
- 29:01SPEAKER_01: they got to go in a basement and they need to decide,
- 29:04SPEAKER_01: like,
- 29:04SPEAKER_01: what's the plan going to be if Trump dies?
- 29:08SPEAKER_00: That would be better than just like winging it because I assume- No,
- 29:11SPEAKER_00: no,
- 29:11SPEAKER_00: no,
- 29:11SPEAKER_01: but this is what I mean.
- 29:12SPEAKER_01: Like,
- 29:12SPEAKER_01: I think that there is,
- 29:14and I think that there's a tendency in democratic politics
- 29:18right now to look at
- 29:20things that are like annoying and foreseeable and foreseeably
- 29:25annoying and to just
- 29:26SPEAKER_01: sort of like get like preemptively annoyed about them.
- 29:30And like decide you don't want to think about it because it's
- 29:34so annoying that this
- 29:35is going to happen rather than to like really say to the
- 29:38different stakeholders
- 29:39SPEAKER_01: here,
- 29:40SPEAKER_01: like we want this to end with you guys not sniping at each other.
- 29:46SPEAKER_01: And that means we're going to have to come up with something, right?
- 29:51SPEAKER_01: Something A for Jared to say, right?
- 29:55SPEAKER_01: that leftists will be very discouraged from pouncing on him about,
- 29:59and something for Ilhan to say that Jared will agree not to
- 30:03triangulate against.
- 30:07SPEAKER_01: I like it.
- 30:07SPEAKER_01: You're not going to say the exact same thing,
- 30:10but there's going to be a range that you've all agreed that you
- 30:14can live with,
- 30:15and then a leadership statement that you have all agreed you
- 30:18can live with as the
- 30:19SPEAKER_01: leadership statement.
- 30:20And we're going to not litigate this in real time,
- 30:26because is Trump going to die next week?
- 30:28SPEAKER_01: Probably not.
- 30:29SPEAKER_01: Is Trump going to die over the next three years?
- 30:31SPEAKER_01: Probably not.
- 30:32SPEAKER_01: Also probably not, but like the odds are not that low.
- 30:35SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
- 30:35SPEAKER_00: They got to be close to 40 percent.
- 30:39SPEAKER_01: I mean, I don't know.
- 30:40Like old man dies within a three year span is more likely than
- 30:44say like Democrats
- 30:45SPEAKER_01: take the Senate in the midterms.
- 30:48SPEAKER_01: No, you know what I mean?
- 30:48Like really,
- 30:49like it's likely enough that it's like really worth planning
- 30:54for,
- 30:54right?
- 30:55Particularly because like these things don't actually get to
- 30:59like the core,
- 31:00SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 31:02SPEAKER_01: policy stakes of an argument,
- 31:04SPEAKER_01: right?
- 31:04SPEAKER_01: And it's like important to try not to have everything –
- 31:11SPEAKER_01: You know, into.
- 31:12I think I think that the person who really like it's not you
- 31:16who who who needs
- 31:17Trump to live to avoid the annoying recriminations that will
- 31:21follow when Democrats
- 31:22SPEAKER_00: march into the like,
- 31:26SPEAKER_00: I don't know,
- 31:26SPEAKER_00: the memorial service,
- 31:28SPEAKER_00: not knowing what their message is.
- 31:29SPEAKER_00: And it's I think it's Gavin Newsom.
- 31:32Without Trump,
- 31:33Newsom loses the fresh appeal and the strangely respect he's
- 31:39developed.
- 31:40SPEAKER_00: Because that whole thing works with Trump as a foil temperamentally.
- 31:46SPEAKER_00: And it doesn't necessarily work if J.D.
- 31:49SPEAKER_00: Vance takes over and does a more polished version of Trumpism.
- 31:55SPEAKER_00: Yes, that is good.
- 31:57SPEAKER_00: Whereas...
- 32:00SPEAKER_00: We didn't get a chance to talk about it, but J.B.
- 32:02Pritzker had some words for Trump trying to discourage him from
- 32:07sending National
- 32:08SPEAKER_00: Guard into Chicago.
- 32:10SPEAKER_00: And so far, I think it's been effective.
- 32:13SPEAKER_00: And they were very strong, but they were very non-Nusom-like.
- 32:18He's not like holding up a mirror to Trump so that people can
- 32:22see how ridiculous
- 32:24Trump's behavior is and how weird it is that we've all become
- 32:27acclimated to it.
- 32:28SPEAKER_00: He just basically said, don't come here.
- 32:30SPEAKER_00: And if you do come here and you hurt my people,
- 32:31SPEAKER_00: I will chase you to the end of the earth for the rest of my life.
- 32:35SPEAKER_00: And I think that that...
- 32:39is an approach that you can take against Trump and you can take
- 32:42against Vance if
- 32:43SPEAKER_00: Vance has to take over.
- 32:45SPEAKER_00: Because the question for Vance is,
- 32:46are you going to just continue the sort of despotic policies
- 32:52that you're inheriting
- 32:53SPEAKER_00: from your dead boss?
- 32:55SPEAKER_00: And if the answer is yes, then you have an enemy in me.
- 32:59SPEAKER_00: And if the answer is no, then maybe we can rekindle things.
- 33:02SPEAKER_00: We can figure out a way to work together cooperatively.
- 33:07I don't know what Newsom has to offer in either of those
- 33:10scenarios because what
- 33:13he's good at is taking pot shots at mentally disordered old
- 33:20dying man and not
- 33:22SPEAKER_00: necessarily at doing partisan war against the J.D.
- 33:26SPEAKER_00: Vance administration.
- 33:28SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I mean, that's definitely true.
- 33:31I mean,
- 33:33you know,
- 33:34Nearsim has had like,
- 33:35just like a very funny bit going,
- 33:37I think.
- 33:38SPEAKER_01: Me too, I enjoy it.
- 33:40SPEAKER_01: Like, don't get me wrong.
- 33:41SPEAKER_01: About this stuff,
- 33:42SPEAKER_01: in just like a super literal,
- 33:44SPEAKER_01: like,
- 33:45SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 33:45SPEAKER_01: like throwing some red meat to the base.
- 33:50SPEAKER_01: But I feel in like in a lot of ways, I also do two things.
- 33:55SPEAKER_01: One is that like what he's doing on the gerrymandering thing is correct.
- 33:59SPEAKER_01: Yes.
- 34:00SPEAKER_01: And it's like admirable.
- 34:02SPEAKER_01: And it's hard to actually get it done.
- 34:06SPEAKER_01: You know,
- 34:06I think the polling on the ballot initiative that he's going to
- 34:10need to pass is
- 34:11SPEAKER_01: like,
- 34:11SPEAKER_01: OK,
- 34:12SPEAKER_01: but it's not.
- 34:13SPEAKER_01: I thought it was like 59 percent or something.
- 34:15SPEAKER_01: Yeah,
- 34:15SPEAKER_01: but that's not good,
- 34:16SPEAKER_01: actually,
- 34:17SPEAKER_01: because these things,
- 34:18SPEAKER_01: initiatives tend to underperform their polling.
- 34:21SPEAKER_00: I feel like there's something sui generis about this.
- 34:24SPEAKER_00: I agree.
- 34:25SPEAKER_01: I agree.
- 34:25SPEAKER_01: But I'm just saying it's not trivial to get it done.
- 34:29It's different from the Texas situation where it's very easy
- 34:34for Abbott to get the maps redrawn.
- 34:36SPEAKER_01: Newsom is needing to put a lot of work into this.
- 34:38And I think the shtick he's doing is sort of helping with that
- 34:42because by doing
- 34:45SPEAKER_01: such sort of low content red meat for partisans,
- 34:49he is defining in a national audience's mind that like Gavin
- 34:53Newsom is doing the
- 34:54SPEAKER_01: right thing here.
- 34:55SPEAKER_01: It should convey down to the large majority of Clinton,
- 35:00SPEAKER_01: Biden,
- 35:00Harris voters who make up the California electorate and should
- 35:04get it done.
- 35:05SPEAKER_01: But it's also created,
- 35:08SPEAKER_01: I think,
- 35:08SPEAKER_01: this kind of like Potemkin presidential candidacy around Newsom,
- 35:14where Newsom has like exactly the problems as a national
- 35:22politician that Kamala
- 35:23SPEAKER_01: Harris had.
- 35:24SPEAKER_01: And then I think any statewide elected official,
- 35:27SPEAKER_01: say from California,
- 35:28SPEAKER_01: would end up having,
- 35:30SPEAKER_01: which is that in the minds of insurgent leftists,
- 35:34He's an establishment politician because he is an establishment
- 35:39politician who is
- 35:40SPEAKER_01: like comfortable with the California business community,
- 35:43SPEAKER_01: has not like smashed oligarchy,
- 35:45SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
- 35:45SPEAKER_01: et cetera,
- 35:46SPEAKER_01: et cetera.
- 35:47But his record on public policy substance is also very left
- 35:51wing because he's the
- 35:53governor of a state that's just like way to the left of the
- 35:57national median.
- 35:58SPEAKER_01: And, you know, that's just like a tough thing.
- 36:02It's a great way to become a nationally prominent Democrat
- 36:06because California is
- 36:07SPEAKER_01: such a large state.
- 36:08SPEAKER_01: It has such a good base of donors, a pretty good base of media people.
- 36:11SPEAKER_01: You're in the news a lot.
- 36:12SPEAKER_01: It's interesting.
- 36:14SPEAKER_01: But, like, the fundamentals are just, like, not good.
- 36:19SPEAKER_01: And the funny tweets don't change that.
- 36:21And the thought experiment of,
- 36:23like,
- 36:23what becomes of this whole Newsom shtick if it's J.D.
- 36:27SPEAKER_01: Vance, who, you know, has a distinctive...
- 36:32SPEAKER_01: But he doesn't have like weird mannerisms like Trump does.
- 36:36SPEAKER_01: Except when he's fucking the couch.
- 36:39SPEAKER_01: Sure.
- 36:40He's like a normal bearded millennial blogger guy,
- 36:43you know,
- 36:45like you or me.
- 36:47SPEAKER_01: And, you know, I just don't know.
- 36:50SPEAKER_01: I mean, I feel like it would kind of go up in smoke.
- 36:52SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
- 36:53SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 36:53SPEAKER_00: like,
- 36:54SPEAKER_00: I have a hard time imagining Vance as president because he's,
- 36:57SPEAKER_00: as an ideologist,
- 36:58SPEAKER_00: he just dances with the one with Brungham,
- 37:00SPEAKER_00: right?
- 37:00SPEAKER_00: So he's swinging all over the place, depending on who his patron is.
- 37:03Currently,
- 37:04it's Trump,
- 37:04but I think it defaults to Peter Thiel if Trump dies.
- 37:08But Vance doesn't have the charisma or the following to
- 37:12implement Theolism in any
- 37:13SPEAKER_00: kind of successful way.
- 37:14SPEAKER_00: So it seems like...
- 37:16SPEAKER_00: He either has to change tax or it's all going to come to pieces.
- 37:19And I actually,
- 37:20part of me like looks forward to him struggling with all of
- 37:22that.
- 37:24But I like,
- 37:25I don't think that the,
- 37:27you know,
- 37:29Newsom would have to reinvent himself yet again.
- 37:31And he keeps doing this in order to find a good,
- 37:34like,
- 37:35like a reasonable toehold on attention.
- 37:38And it's,
- 37:39which he's done with the redistricting and the like tweeting
- 37:41like Trump shtick.
- 37:44SPEAKER_00: I think that ceases to be effective,
- 37:46and he's got to come up with a third thing or a fourth thing or
- 37:48whatever it is.
- 37:49And I will say that I appreciate the effort he's put into the
- 37:55redistricting thing,
- 37:56SPEAKER_00: and I'm glad he is trolling Trump in this way.
- 37:58But of the three likely 2028 candidates who are leaning into
- 38:05the fighting Democrat model –
- 38:08SPEAKER_00: which would be him,
- 38:09SPEAKER_00: Pritzker,
- 38:10SPEAKER_00: and Beto O'Rourke,
- 38:11SPEAKER_00: to the extent that Beto's,
- 38:12SPEAKER_00: I think,
- 38:13SPEAKER_00: thinking of running for president.
- 38:15SPEAKER_00: Like,
- 38:15SPEAKER_00: Newsom is the last,
- 38:16SPEAKER_00: for me,
- 38:16SPEAKER_00: on that list,
- 38:17SPEAKER_00: is,
- 38:17SPEAKER_00: like,
- 38:17at the bottom of the ones who I'd want to see walk away with
- 38:20the nomination,
- 38:21SPEAKER_00: and who I trust to actually,
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: like,
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: is,
- 38:22SPEAKER_00: like...
- 38:24SPEAKER_00: Is he actually angry and fighting because he's angry,
- 38:28or is he leaning into an angry shtick because he knows that's
- 38:31what rubes like me
- 38:33SPEAKER_00: want to see right now?
- 38:35SPEAKER_00: And I can't say I know the answer, but I do believe that J.D.
- 38:38Pritzker just bleeds disgust for Trumpism,
- 38:41and I know that Beto O'Rourke does.
- 38:44And I feel like in closer to the action competition,
- 38:50when there's an actual primary happening—
- 38:53the Newsom thing will become pretty transparent and tattered
- 38:59relative to those two.
- 39:00And that's all assuming Trump lives long enough for him to
- 39:03carry this shtick on for
- 39:04SPEAKER_00: another year and a half or whatever.
- 39:07SPEAKER_03: Yeah,
- 39:07SPEAKER_03: I mean,
- 39:08SPEAKER_03: I just think,
- 39:08SPEAKER_02: I think that there's a real gap in,
- 39:16SPEAKER_02: I don't know how to put this,
- 39:22SPEAKER_02: like,
- 39:25SPEAKER_02: Most Democrats have just,
- 39:30SPEAKER_02: you know,
- 39:32SPEAKER_01: really want to be in the 2017 vibe where Trump became president,
- 39:42SPEAKER_01: but like got fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.
- 39:46SPEAKER_02: And there was a lot of third party voting.
- 39:49SPEAKER_02: And you could be like, some abhorrence has occurred.
- 39:56SPEAKER_02: And we need to cast it out.
- 40:00SPEAKER_01: And I feel like Pritzker speaks very well to that sentiment,
- 40:06SPEAKER_01: which,
- 40:07SPEAKER_01: to be clear,
- 40:07SPEAKER_01: is the sentiment of the majority of the people of Illinois,
- 40:11SPEAKER_01: which is like one reason that he speaks very well to it.
- 40:16SPEAKER_01: But that across multiple election campaigns,
- 40:20SPEAKER_01: like a bad dynamic has crept up on the Democrats,
- 40:27whereby most people formed the view that they had like a big
- 40:34problem with the way
- 40:36SPEAKER_01: the Democratic Party was governing the country.
- 40:39Which isn't to say that they all love Trump or will never
- 40:43accept an alternative to
- 40:46SPEAKER_01: Trump,
- 40:47SPEAKER_01: but I think are waiting for somebody who through some means or other,
- 40:53SPEAKER_01: like,
- 40:55SPEAKER_01: credibly signifies some kind of differentness.
- 40:59And the problem with being a governor of a large blue state
- 41:03like Illinois or
- 41:04SPEAKER_01: California is that just as Hillary to Biden to Kamala was a kind of like
- 41:12SPEAKER_01: establishment,
- 41:13SPEAKER_01: establishment,
- 41:13SPEAKER_01: establishment,
- 41:15SPEAKER_01: that like California,
- 41:16SPEAKER_01: Illinois,
- 41:16SPEAKER_01: these like continuous blue state trifectas are like more of the same,
- 41:21SPEAKER_01: more of the same,
- 41:22SPEAKER_01: more of the same.
- 41:23SPEAKER_00: See,
- 41:25I think that so much of what you're describing had to do with
- 41:28the peculiarities of
- 41:29SPEAKER_00: Joe Biden,
- 41:29SPEAKER_00: the ones that we discussed at the beginning of this conversation,
- 41:32and that being Pritzker or O'Rourke or even Newsom helps
- 41:37because you weren't part
- 41:38SPEAKER_00: of the administration.
- 41:38SPEAKER_00: You weren't in Congress at the time.
- 41:40You weren't expected to have eyes on what was going on with the
- 41:44ancient-ass
- 41:44SPEAKER_00: Democrat or his ancient-ass policies.
- 41:46SPEAKER_01: I mean not part of the administration is like definitely helps –
- 41:53I still don't think that presiding over a big blue state is
- 41:59different enough.
- 42:03I think it is a question of what people were upset about and
- 42:08whether they,
- 42:10SPEAKER_00: even if it was wrongly,
- 42:11SPEAKER_00: even if they wrongly associated what they were upset about with
- 42:16SPEAKER_00: Things that they associate with democratic politics.
- 42:19SPEAKER_00: But if it's just like inflation was high and Joe Biden was old,
- 42:22then I don't think that there's all that much for somebody like
- 42:25Pritzker to worry
- 42:25SPEAKER_00: about.
- 42:26Like,
- 42:27obviously,
- 42:27he's going to have to defend,
- 42:29you know,
- 42:29what like his record.
- 42:31SPEAKER_00: There's going to be, you know.
- 42:33SPEAKER_00: vaguely racist potshots about Chicago.
- 42:35SPEAKER_00: I stipulate to all of that.
- 42:39SPEAKER_00: I just think that J.B.
- 42:41SPEAKER_00: Pritzker's too much continuity with Biden does not ring correct to me.
- 42:46I mean,
- 42:46it's not continuity with Biden,
- 42:48but it's like continuity with itself.
- 42:50SPEAKER_01: It's like, I don't think we're going to turn America into Illinois.
- 42:55SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 42:55SPEAKER_00: what I would like to see,
- 42:57there was a moment after Chuck Schumer bailed out Trump in
- 43:01March where Josh
- 43:02SPEAKER_00: Shapiro,
- 43:03SPEAKER_00: I think he went on a Bill Maher show,
- 43:07SPEAKER_00: and was like,
- 43:08SPEAKER_00: that was a misuse of leverage.
- 43:10SPEAKER_00: We had more leverage than,
- 43:12and I thought that he made a really good case on that program
- 43:15and that it,
- 43:16SPEAKER_00: to me,
- 43:17suggested that he might be entering the arena a little bit to
- 43:22punch against Trump.
- 43:23SPEAKER_00: And he has not done that.
- 43:25SPEAKER_00: And Wes Moore has also,
- 43:28SPEAKER_00: I mean,
- 43:28SPEAKER_00: he's starting to a little bit,
- 43:29SPEAKER_00: but like if you've got Pritzker and Newsom who are like fully gloves off,
- 43:34SPEAKER_00: then you've got Wes Moore and Josh Shapiro who are a bit more gloves on.
- 43:39SPEAKER_00: And then you've got like Gretchen Whitmer who's just like,
- 43:41I'm going to work with Trump as much as I possibly fucking can
- 43:44because I like
- 43:45SPEAKER_00: Donald Trump and want him to be president some more.
- 43:48SPEAKER_00: And I don't think that
- 43:53They are going to be able to compete against – like if they are
- 44:01going to win the
- 44:02SPEAKER_00: primary,
- 44:03it's going to be because like the fighting Democrats lane has
- 44:06three people in it.
- 44:07SPEAKER_00: Not because- Oh,
- 44:08SPEAKER_00: listen,
- 44:09SPEAKER_00: again,
- 44:10SPEAKER_01: to be clear,
- 44:11SPEAKER_01: as always,
- 44:12SPEAKER_01: I think that there are two plausible outcomes here.
- 44:15SPEAKER_01: One is that we get what you want, which is a terrible idea and will fail.
- 44:19SPEAKER_01: And the other is it will get much worse than what you want.
- 44:22SPEAKER_01: I don't think that there is any chance.
- 44:24SPEAKER_01: I don't think it's on the radar,
- 44:26SPEAKER_01: the Democratic Party right now,
- 44:28SPEAKER_01: to do what they ought to be doing on anything.
- 44:30And that all the hopes for the Democratic Party electorally at
- 44:34this point are just
- 44:35SPEAKER_01: like hope the economy gets worse.
- 44:37SPEAKER_00: What would you like to see Josh Shapiro doing right now?
- 44:42SPEAKER_00: Nothing.
- 44:43SPEAKER_00: Hiding?
- 44:44SPEAKER_01: No.
- 44:45SPEAKER_01: The problem is the authentic views of Democrats.
- 44:50SPEAKER_00: That they ought to take a stand against Donald Trump?
- 44:52SPEAKER_00: He's very unpopular.
- 44:54SPEAKER_01: Not really.
- 44:54SPEAKER_01: Yeah, he's pretty unpopular.
- 44:56SPEAKER_01: He's more popular than he was in his first term.
- 44:58SPEAKER_00: A little bit.
- 44:59SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 45:01SPEAKER_00: He was the most unpopular president ever.
- 45:03SPEAKER_01: I mean, you know what I think?
- 45:05I think that Democrats ought to become a lot more conservative
- 45:09on a lot of
- 45:10different policy issues simultaneously and maybe a bit more
- 45:13left wing on Israel and
- 45:14SPEAKER_01: also yell about how Trump is bad.
- 45:16SPEAKER_01: But like, I don't think they're going to do any of that stuff.
- 45:19But like,
- 45:19yeah,
- 45:21like at least Newsom and Pritzker are doing one of the things
- 45:25you want.
- 45:27SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I mean.
- 45:28SPEAKER_00: Maybe two of the things you want, actually.
- 45:30SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 45:32SPEAKER_01: I think maybe one.
- 45:34SPEAKER_01: I mean,
- 45:34SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 45:34SPEAKER_01: if Newsom hadn't had like his whole prior career,
- 45:37SPEAKER_01: I think like what he's done over the last,
- 45:39SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 45:41SPEAKER_01: three months is like pretty savvy,
- 45:43SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 45:44SPEAKER_01: smart guy.
- 45:47SPEAKER_01: But it's just like, you know,
- 45:50There's something very practiced about everything he says that
- 45:52drives me a little nuts.
- 45:54SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
- 45:54SPEAKER_00: But anyway.
- 45:55SPEAKER_01: There's these polls.
- 45:56So it's like it used to be the case that like conservatives
- 45:59outnumbered liberals by
- 46:00SPEAKER_01: a large amount in the electorate.
- 46:03So Democrats were always behind the eight ball and needed to
- 46:05win like overwhelming
- 46:06SPEAKER_01: majorities with moderates.
- 46:08The number of liberals has grown enough such that now most
- 46:12Democrats are liberals,
- 46:13SPEAKER_01: which didn't used to be the case.
- 46:16SPEAKER_01: So like you can't win as a moderate in a national democratic primary,
- 46:20SPEAKER_01: but also conservatives still massively outnumber liberals in the national
- 46:23SPEAKER_01: electorate.
- 46:24SPEAKER_01: So I think we're just going to lose.
- 46:27SPEAKER_01: So this is why I'm pinning my hopes on,
- 46:30SPEAKER_01: you know,
- 46:31SPEAKER_01: Purple Hand dying,
- 46:32SPEAKER_01: that Vance just not being able to hold together.
- 46:35SPEAKER_00: I can't tell if you want Trump to die or not.
- 46:37SPEAKER_00: You started by saying that he needs to stay alive.
- 46:39SPEAKER_01: I mean, I'll find it annoying, but it's better for America.
- 46:42SPEAKER_00: There you go.
- 46:43SPEAKER_00: You're back to 2011.
- 46:44SPEAKER_00: Andrew Breitbart dying was good for the world.
- 46:47SPEAKER_00: The Matt Iglesias I became friends with.
- 46:49SPEAKER_01: I mean, what's he had in the Nate Silver average?
- 46:51SPEAKER_01: 44 approved, 51 disapproved.
- 46:56SPEAKER_01: You know, I mean, those are weak, but they're not.
- 47:01SPEAKER_01: They're not that weak.
- 47:04I wish that they had realized that this was sort of the
- 47:06skeleton key to everything.
- 47:08But the thing that has always been true about Trump's numbers
- 47:11is that while he's
- 47:12SPEAKER_00: never been popular,
- 47:13SPEAKER_00: he edges into like not catastrophically unpopular territory.
- 47:16But the ranks of people who disapprove of him are almost always
- 47:21over 50 percent and
- 47:22SPEAKER_00: almost 100 percent of those people despise him.
- 47:26SPEAKER_00: Whereas on the flip side- Kind of.
- 47:28SPEAKER_01: I just honestly feel like this is like what we talk about all the time.
- 47:31SPEAKER_01: Like, that's what they say.
- 47:32SPEAKER_01: But just like see how they react to anyone who has like-
- 47:39Read what people say about me all day,
- 47:42every day,
- 47:42like influential people,
- 47:44right?
- 47:44SPEAKER_01: And like,
- 47:44SPEAKER_01: it's not that like,
- 47:46SPEAKER_01: oh,
- 47:46Matt Iglesias loves Donald Trump and wants Donald Trump to be
- 47:50president and thinks
- 47:51SPEAKER_01: that the Donald Trump presidency is incredible.
- 47:54SPEAKER_01: It's disagreement about questions of public policy substance.
- 47:57SPEAKER_01: Like Democrats both really hate Donald Trump very sincerely,
- 48:01SPEAKER_01: very sincerely think he's a fascist,
- 48:03SPEAKER_01: very sincerely think he's destroying the country.
- 48:05And also have just like zero tolerance for any level of
- 48:11deviation on any question
- 48:13SPEAKER_01: of public policy for the sake of winning elections.
- 48:15So you end up in this Newsom or AOC dichotomy of like two
- 48:20people who won't do very well.
- 48:24SPEAKER_01: And, you know, it's bad.
- 48:26SPEAKER_01: My mitochondria are very distressed.
- 48:28I think I'd rather be in the party where like 51% of the
- 48:31country hates the other
- 48:33SPEAKER_00: leader than in the one where 25% of the,
- 48:36SPEAKER_00: you know,
- 48:37SPEAKER_00: country loves him.
- 48:38SPEAKER_03: All right.
- 48:39SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
- 48:40SPEAKER_00: Look,
- 48:41SPEAKER_00: here's what's going to happen is that Chorus is going to put...
- 48:44SPEAKER_00: Oh,
- 48:44SPEAKER_00: yeah,
- 48:44SPEAKER_00: we got to take an ad break.
- 48:45SPEAKER_01: Let's talk about this because I think this is relevant to this.
- 48:48SPEAKER_00: I think it is relevant,
- 48:49SPEAKER_00: too,
- 48:49although I'm going to let you give the rundown because we'll do
- 48:55that on the other
- 48:56SPEAKER_00: side.
- 48:56If you want to hear us talk about Democratic Party propaganda
- 48:59and why we didn't get
- 49:00SPEAKER_00: any of that money,
- 49:02SPEAKER_00: go to politics.fm and upgrade your subscription.