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May 26 | Closing Market Report · Closing Market Report

• cmr260526 The May 26, 2026, Closing Market Report indicates a general decline in commodity futures, driven by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and favorable Midwest weather forecasts. Market analyst Naomi Blohm notes that while grain uptrends are holding, they are currently testing critical support levels amid slowing export sales and persistent South American competition. Conversely, fertilizer prices remain highly elevated due to prolonged supply chain and production disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Regarding regional crops, Dan O'Brien reports spotty moisture for Kansas wheat, projecting high abandonment rates of up to 25%, while also highlighting a growing global policy shift toward domestic biofuel production. Finally, meteorologist Don Day forecasts near-term hot and dry conditions for central Canada and the northern US Corn Belt, with contrasting precipitation in the Pacific Northwest and Gulf Coast, before weather patterns are expected to normalize in June. - Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com - CEO of the Fertilizer Institute Corey Rosenbusch - Ag Energies and Kansas Wheat Abandonment with Dan O'Brien, Kansas State Extension - Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com Todd Gleason: From the land grant university in Urbana-Champaign, Illinois, this is the closing market report for the 26th day of May 2026. I'm Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason. Coming up, we'll talk about the commodity markets with Naomi Blohm. She's at totalfarmmarketing.com. Dan O'Brien from Kansas State University will be here to discuss the agricultural energies, we'll ask him about abandonment of wheat acres in his state as well. And then we'll turn our attention to the weather forecast. Don Day of Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming will join us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on-demand at willag.org. Announce: Todd Gleason's services are made available to WILL by University of Illinois Extension. Todd Gleason: July corn for the day settled at $4.57 and a half, down five and three-quarters. December at $4.82, the new crop four and a half lower. July soybeans, a settlement price at $11.86 a bushel, ten and a half cents lower. November down seven and a half, settlement there at $11.80 and a quarter. Bean meal, $3.30 lower on the day. The bean oil, 38 cents higher. Wheat futures, soft red in the harvest month July, $6.35 and a half, down ten and three-quarters, and the hard red July at $6.76 and a quarter, down five and three-quarters of a cent. Live cattle futures, 45 cents lower on the day. Feeder cattle down 40 cents, and lean hogs 27 and a half lower. Crude oil down $2.69 a barrel for the WTI, and $3.90 for the Brent. 01:42 Ag Markets with Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com Todd Gleason: Naomi Blohm from totalfarmmarketing.com now joins us to take a look at the marketplace on this first Tuesday of the trading week. I call it the first Tuesday of the trading week because it's the first trading day of the week. Hey, thanks for being with us, Naomi. How did things go over the weekend as we watched the president trying to negotiate with the Iranians and then, of course, not going so well? The market took that in stride, it appeared to me. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, absolutely. It seems like as long as there was talk and trying to make progress, the market saw that as a way to take some war premium risk out of the market. And that's part of the reason why crude oil was lower throughout the day and the grains were lower. There wasn't a dramatic big escalation of violence in the Middle East, and so I think traders said, okay, well, at least things didn't get worse. It's not totally better, but they're trying. And so that is why the markets, I think, were a little bit lower today, along with grain markets having some rains in portions of the Midwest and a better outlook for weather in general over the next couple of weeks. Todd Gleason: Does it change the technical picture or the charts at all? Naomi Blohm: So what we're watching right now, corn, beans, and wheat for new crop, all of them are testing some major support lines. So December corn has some real solid support at the $4.80 area, but if we see a close below $4.75, then the uptrend that had been established since January is broken. And that would be real negative for prices. And the November beans sitting on uptrend support near this $11.80 area, a close below $11.75, and especially $11.70, where the 40-day moving averages, that would be negative. And that would negate, again, the uptrend that has been established over the past five months. Chicago July wheat futures, kind of the same thing. The uptrend is holding that had been established since January, but that market could drop all the way down to near about $6.16 before it really tests the uptrend line. And we finished today near $6.35 on the July Chicago. So the uptrends are still holding, but barely. They need some fresh bullish news to be able to get that uptrend to continue. Otherwise, if we don't have anything overly friendly for news this week, we may see that market just grind a little lower as the week goes on. Todd Gleason: What are the headwinds that are against the up move at this time? I would think at least a minimum, seasonals. Naomi Blohm: Yes, seasonals are definitely one of them from the standpoint that sometime between Mother's Day and Father's Day, the grain markets find their seasonal high. We also have export sales that are just kind of naturally starting to slow down a little bit this time of year. We had some decent flash sales Friday, but the market chose to ignore them. It's starting to focus on the fact that South America still continues to be a major competitor for exports. And we haven't seen any big signs of China coming in to buy. And the weather for the most part is really looking decent for the Midwest over the next couple of weeks as the newly planted crop emerges. Todd Gleason: Anything that you're looking at across the planet other than the Strait of Hormuz that you are worried about or that gives you pause to think the marketplace might go higher? I would suppose that could be the corn crop in Brazil or other things that are happening in South America. Naomi Blohm: Yeah, so of course keeping an eye on the weather for sure in South America. But we did see Argentina starting to maneuver some of their taxes and trying to make themselves a little bit more competitive on the global export front. So that'll be competition for the United States. And with exports in the United States, you know, the world is aware that the Americans have still corn in the bin and some beans in the bin. But they're also very well aware that the Argentina, the Brazil second crop corn, will be available to the world here in August before our crop is harvested. So we've got some competition. We're just on the assumption that the US will have a decent crop unless proven otherwise. And now we kind of just sit and wait and look to see what the weather outlook will be as we get into July for corn and August for the soybeans. And again, without any big specific news here in the United States or a weather flare-up in the world, the path of least resistance for grains is maybe sideways to a little lower. Todd Gleason: Sideways to lower is better than just lower and fast down. I take it that's not what you're thinking at this time. Naomi Blohm: Right. No, I'm not looking for any kind of a dramatic fall. The dramatic fall, if there is one, that's a lot of times after Father's Day or coming back from 4th of July weekend if there's not any weather issues on the horizon. So probably going to see some quiet markets, but it still is an opportunity for producers to be focusing with cash sales, old crop and new crop. Todd Gleason: One last thing on the global front. The Europeans, the Australians, as they have just recently announced, and the South Americans, Brazilians in this case, have been thinking a great deal more about biomass-based fuels. That takes some time to build up. Any thought that that would really impact the 2026/2027 marketing year at all? Naomi Blohm: Well, it might be something where we see some of those countries create their own stronger domestic demand for the biofuels, or create stronger demand for the biofuels that maybe they would try to export some of that. So at this time, it's something I think to be watching because it could be two-front. You know, it could be more demand for grains for biofuels, but in some regards, depending on if those countries are exporters of the products, that could compete with US exports of the biofuels as well. Todd Gleason: Thank you for the insights. I appreciate it. Naomi Blohm: Thank you. Todd Gleason: And of course that is Naomi Blohm. She is with totalfarmmarketing.com. 07:56 CEO of the Fertilizer Institute Corey Rosenbusch Todd Gleason: You know, fertilizer prices were already elevated before hostilities broke out between the US and Iran. But since then, input prices have reached even new heights due to supply chain issues in the Strait of Hormuz. Mike Davis from NAFB has more. Mike Davis: Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of the Fertilizer Institute, says fertilizer issues have taken on a life of their own. About a third of the world's urea, 20% of the phosphate, and more than half of the sulfur moves through the Strait of Hormuz every year. But it's been effectively blocked by Iran since March 2nd. Unfortunately, says Rosenbusch, there are no simple or quick answers to bringing those prices back down. Corey Rosenbusch: Even if the strait were open today, we are not sure of what the damage has been to a lot of these production plants. Some of them had to be taken down because there is no natural gas to run them. In other cases, we do know there has been physical damage due to drone strikes or missile strikes on those facilities. So this isn't purely an 'open the strait and the product's going to start flowing and the market's going to return to normal'. Mike Davis: Rosenbusch says it could take months or even years to return to normal production in that region. I'm Mike Davis. 09:22 Ag Energies and Kansas Wheat Abandonment with Dan O'Brien, Kansas State Extension Todd Gleason: On Tuesdays, we always take a look at the agricultural energies. Dan O'Brien from Kansas State University now joins us. He is in the northwestern corner of Kansas. It's Extension there. Hi Dan, thanks for being with us. You will be in the heart of some of the driest conditions I think in Kansas. Has that changed, and then I do want to talk about the wheat crop itself and what kind of abandonment you expect. Dan O'Brien: With regard to moisture, generally the favorite answer of anybody answering about Kansas conditions is that it's mixed and spotty. It's just not consistent, but a lot of dry areas. And lots of concern. Of course, we came out of a time frame when we were dry enough that we really did hurt the Kansas wheat crop in parts of the state. You know, when you talk about abandonment, Todd, I'm wedded to the idea of resiliency in Kansas wheat because it'll surprise you year after year with producing more than you think it would. But this year, estimates of 20, 25% abandonment are, they seem awfully high in terms of what we look at historically, but it just really depends which part of the state you're driving through. We've had wheat in the central part of the state, and if you're a native here you're familiar with the Hutchinson, Lyons area, where the wheat fields a month ago were yellow, which meant they had already been sprayed and killed off because they gave up on the wheat. They're going to plant no-till corn or sorghum into it probably. So we certainly have a fair amount of that. So when it's all said and done, our actual harvested percent of what had been planted will certainly be lower than what we had been. I think historically it's not often you get down to 70% or below in Kansas as a state, but sure wouldn't be surprised that we get there. That said, you drive along and you do see some pretty good fields. And we generally have had enough moisture in a spotty manner to where we haven't just microwaved everything down, you know, 95-degree heat and 30 mile-an-hour winds. It just torques it. But anyway, so we're quite spotty, and I think the USDA projection was for 37 bushels an acre for the Kansas yield. The Kansas wheat tour came through two weeks ago, is about 38.7. But it's not a great wheat crop, it's just a matter of how bad the final numbers are. Todd Gleason: Let's turn your attention to the agricultural energies directly. I kind of want to start with global issues, world policies. We can begin in Washington, D.C. Many of these have been driven in part by the war in Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. E15 did pass the United States House of Representatives. It has a tough row to hoe to get through the Senate. What can you tell me about prospects and your thinking as it relates to E15 in the US supply? Dan O'Brien: Well, if we didn't have what's going on in the oil market and the energy markets, we'd be probably less likely to see the potential for passing of E15 through the Senate and adoption overall. But even when you read other reports from other parts of the globe, countries are making moves to encourage domestic biofuel production at this time that under normal circumstances, without this stress, that they'd probably be hesitant to make. And you and I were talking before we came on the air about what's going on in the United States. Again, we have about a 50 cents or more higher value of ethanol produced at this time than we'd had before. When you look at that, that'd be the value per bushel of ethanol produced. For soybeans, when you bring in the biofuels side of that, here a year ago at this time we've got about $17.09 estimated processing value for soybeans in Illinois, a good part of that the biofuels side. And a year ago we were at $12.78. So the biofuel demand push that we have certainly is supporting the profitability of plants in both the eastern Corn Belt and the western Corn Belt, and giving an impetus, more impetus than we'd normally have, to enhance or increase the amount of biofuel production, whether it be E15 on a year-round basis, or on the ethanol side, renewable diesel, soy diesel, whatever we have on the oilseed side, not to mention what's happening with canola elsewhere. So I guess I'm arguing more for motivations and impetus as a factor in the final E15 acceptance or not than we'd have in other circumstances. Again, the oil markets with so much uncertainty with regard to when normalcy may come around are pressing towards the use of more domestic biofuels, and it's just a factor that's brought them into the political realm at this point. Todd Gleason: On the global view, do you see the rest of the planet leaning like the United States is, more on biomass-based fuels? Dan O'Brien: We've seen reports of that in countries like Brazil, Argentina, partly like Australia, and no doubt others. I need to do a much more thorough search to start naming names beyond those two, but those two are big ones. And particularly in Brazil, you know, they use corn for their own domestic livestock usage and also they export quite a bit, but look at the growth that they've seen in their own domestic usage of biofuel. And I think we were looking at numbers of 40% or 40-some percent of their domestic fuel usage is driven by policy to come from these renewable sources. So, as a corn market watcher, I keep wondering, well, as they keep pushing with that motivation to keep expanding their domestic production, when does that industrial usage of corn get to the place where it starts to crowd out some of their export potential? Of course, that would affect the US corn market for sure, because you've got basically the United States, Brazil, Argentina as the major corn exporters in the world. And if Brazil starts to push its domestic fuel production usage of corn to the place where the United States does, then hey, you're having some crowding out effect. So I guess we'll watch that and see where that takes us in future years. Todd Gleason: We can watch that and see where that takes us. It looks by the numbers as if it won't be for the crop that they are going to harvest yet this summer, our time. Because they're at what, 1.8 billion bushels for export. The previous two years have been 1.5 and 1.6 or thereabouts. But we could watch that number come down, particularly if they were to use E32 or E35, which I think the government there, as you rightly pointed me to in an article, is continuing to look at. Anything else we should discuss before I let you go? Dan O'Brien: You know, probably the best quote on that comes from Jeff Cooper with the Renewable Fuels Association, their chief executive. He's quoted as saying there are countries around the world that are looking to get their hands on any source of liquid fuel they can find. So Brazil, Australia, and no doubt others, all in this mode now at least strongly considering, if this is a way to get around the other problems they're having in terms of supply chains and geopolitics that are limiting their ability to bring in oil and gasoline. Todd Gleason: Hey thanks much, we'll talk with you again soon. Dan O'Brien: Thanks, take care. Todd Gleason: You too. Dan O'Brien is with Kansas State University Extension. Joins us once a month on a Tuesday afternoon. Always on Tuesdays, we discuss the agricultural energies. Dan was here to do that today. By the way, our programming is brought to you by Illinois Public Media, University of Illinois Extension. Our theme music is written, performed, produced, and courtesy of Logan County, Illinois farmer Tim Gleason. I do urge you to visit a couple of websites, of course the willag.org site, w-i-l-l-a-g.org website, and the farmdocdaily website, both are great places to stay up on what's happening in the world of agriculture. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu. 19:39 Ag Weather with Don Day, DayWeather.com Todd Gleason: Let's take a look at the weather forecast now with Don Day. He is at Day Weather in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Hi Don, thanks for being with us again. Don Day: Thanks for having me. Todd Gleason: What do you see in the weather that's interesting as we move into the summer timeframe? Don Day: Yeah, we are kind of moving into that summer timeframe in terms of what we're seeing with the overall weather pattern. But a bit of a unique end to the month of May and for the first couple of days of June. We're going to have a very strong low-pressure system settle into the Pacific Northwest, bringing Washington, Oregon, and even California some late May rain. And that is going to be also corresponding with an area of low pressure down into the Gulf Coast region. And the middle part of the country, extending up into Saskatchewan and Manitoba, is a large area of high pressure. We're going to see very warm, hot conditions in central Canada that will expand southward into the Dakotas, into the northern and northwestern Corn Belt, and into the Great Lakes. So we're not expecting much in the way of any significant moisture in those areas here for a good week or so. Todd Gleason: When you say hot for Canada, what does that mean in temperatures? Don Day: Well, they're going to go, we can see some upper 80s and lower 90s. Not long ago, they couldn't have a warm day to save their lives. So this is going to be quite a flip for them. Todd Gleason: Will it come along with rainfall, and is this warmth in the very driest of the areas of the prairies that produce so much there? Don Day: Well, you know, I don't think it's going to last. I do see a trend that's going to get wetter and cooler after it kind of goes through its life cycle here. But over a five to seven day period, it'll be making the news up there, the heat and the dryness that far north. And it's also going to extend into North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota, parts of Iowa. And you get south of Interstate 80, there's really not much in the way that's going to be happening for a bit. Now south of there, into the Delta region, along the Gulf Coast, there's going to be a convergence of moisture down there and frequent shower and thunderstorm activity. So there's going to be drought relief in the southern tier of the US, but drying out in parts of the north-central. Todd Gleason: Does that all happen through now through the beginning of the month of June? Don Day: Into at least the first couple of days of June. Now as we get further on into June, things I think start to transition to a more, let's say average summer pattern for early summer, which will eliminate that high pressure ridge in Canada and kind of get us back on track in terms of at least having the weather behave closer to those 30-year averages. Todd Gleason: Hey thanks much. We'll talk with you again next week. Don Day: See you then. Todd Gleason: Don Day is with Day Weather. He is in Cheyenne, Wyoming. Joined us on this Tuesday edition of the closing market report that came to you from Illinois Public Media. It is public radio for the farming world, online, on-demand at willag.org. That's w-i-l-l-a-g.org, where you can stay up to speed on the latest information from the ag economists, the crop scientists, and the animal scientists right here on the Urbana-Champaign campus of the U of I. You can always listen to the closing market report, Commodity Week, and the Illinois Nutrient Loss Reduction podcast on-demand too, directly from the website or search each of them out by name in your favorite podcast application. You have a great afternoon. I'm University of Illinois Extension's Todd Gleason.