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CFB Week 9 BEST BETS | Georgia Blowout Coming?! · Toadstool Sports

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Happy Halloween Eve, everybody. The mustache may or may not
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: be part of my costume idea that I have. I
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: might actually have to get rid of it as well,
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: but that remains to be seen. If you follow me,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: you'll see my costume get posted. There was nothing scary
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: about any of the plays I gave out tonight. We
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: went 3-0 with three real easy wins, although Miami was
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: looking really bad early. I'll talk about it tomorrow. This
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: is college football. This show always goes way too long
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: I want to get it done. We're already off to
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: a good start this week in college football. I think
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: tonight was the first play I gave out on the week,
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. We got a win with that one
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: with Baylor, so easy win. Yeah, let's just roll right
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: into it, man, after the intro, of course. I'm going
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: to give out four more plays. I think I got
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: some other strong opinions that were pretty close to being
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: plays for me. Going to discuss a whole bunch of games.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Hopefully it's not going to take that long, as I
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: usually say, but Thanks for hanging out, everybody, because I
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: get a lot of views on these college football shows
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: for whatever reason, more than the NFL. So I appreciate it.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get this going. Let's get this going.
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: You got a slip in your palm and a hole
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: in your chest Black coffee on the felt, man, you
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: look like a mess Three-team parlay turned to dust in
• 1:40
  Speaker 2: your hand Now you stare at the chips like they
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: made you this man.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: But don't you go quiet, don't.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: You fade from the floor Your name still means something
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: to somebody for sure Put the glass down, baby.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: Look at me now.
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: Hold on. Hold on.
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: Not tonight.
• 2:07
  Speaker 4: Not now. Hold on.
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: Hold on.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: Let me pull you out. That fell apart by its heart.
• 2:22
  Speaker 3: But it don't get the crown.
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on, stay with me now.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Situations. One of my plays, maybe in a game that's
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: not one of the TV network games, I'm not sure,
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: but we're digging deep, I guess, here. Haven't really done
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: it yet, but sometimes you gotta if you find the spots, man.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Let's get into it. Yeah, let's just go. Starting at noon,
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: pretty big game, number five, Notre Dame against Navy. Noon,
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: ABC has this game, and this game is at a
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: neutral location. This game is in Foxborough State, or sorry,
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass. Up here, no, I'm not
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: going to the game. I'll be at some Halloween festivities,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: but weird that they decided to have this game in Foxborough.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I don't know why, but yeah, it is a neutral
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: site game, so just keep that in mind. Notre Dame,
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: obviously going to be a huge favorite here. Now, the
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: thing about Notre Dame is... I think the major component
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: to this is they might have a huge look ahead
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: because they have Miami on deck, and that is a
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: monster game for Notre Dame because if you forget, last
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: year Notre Dame went down to Miami early in the season, lost,
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: and that was a play that I gave out on
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: the show, by the way, on Miami back then. That
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: was a winner I gave out. That game alone is
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: what held Notre Dame out of the playoffs and put
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Miami in. I'm almost positive that's what did it. So
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: that's a huge revenge game there. for Notre Dame coming
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: up against Miami. So I think they might look past
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: Navy here, and that's the danger with looking at Notre
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: Dame here. Notre Dame is also coming up their first
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: loss of the season, so that's not good either. I
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: think when a team takes their first loss, a lot
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: of times it'll hang them over into the next game.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: It was at BYU. It was not an easy environment
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: to go play in. Huge win for BYU there, but
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: that was a big game for both teams, a ranked matchup.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: So a lot going on. You could argue that Notre
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Dame will be a little bit hungover off of that.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And taking your first loss sometimes will disrupt your momentum. Now,
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: it's not going to be a dream crusher for Notre
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Dame because basically all the top teams have one loss.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: So I think a one-loss Notre Dame team is still
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: going to make the playoff here. They're going to have
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: to beat Miami, obviously. If they lose that game, they're done.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: But I think they will win that game. They'll be
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: a home favorite there. But We've got to handicap this
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: potential sandwich spot here. Now, the good things for Notre Dame,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: they're coming out of a bye. So when you go
• 5:18
  Speaker 1: into a bye on a bad note, which I would
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: say they did. I mean, it was a loss at least.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times that bye helps you disrupt
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: that losing momentum or fix things. So I think that's
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: at least probably a positive for Notre Dame. The bye
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I think probably is. Maybe it's not, though, because you
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: could argue that was still a big game against BYU,
• 5:39
  Speaker 1: but again, you could argue it was a bad game
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: for Notre Dame because they were supposed to win. They
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: were a double-digit favorite in that game, and when double-digit
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: favorites lose outright, a lot of times they do bounce
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: back in the next game. So those are the things
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: I'm trying to weigh in this game here. It makes
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: it a little bit difficult to handicap, but I come
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: down to it mostly basically being a sandwich spot. I
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: think I'm kind of leaning more towards that BYU game
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: was big. Notre Dame could be hung over through the
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: bye off that first loss and definitely a big, big
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: look-ahead spot. That Miami game is going to be the
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: biggest game of the year for them. So, yeah, I
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: would only take the points in this one with Navy
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: if we're going to do anything with it. Notre Dame's
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: a massive favorite. They're like a 30.5-point favorite now. They're Republic,
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: 69% of the tickets, although they have 75% of the money,
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: so a little bit more of the money, but to me,
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: that looks like the Republic side, and it's a huge number,
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: and I just don't even know if they're going to
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: be incentivized to really do that here. I know they've
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: blown out Navy a couple of times recently, although Navy,
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: I believe Navy helped keep Notre Dame afloat, like Notre
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Dame University, Navy helped keep them afloat. I forget exactly how,
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: like in the World War II So I guess there's
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: something there, and that's like the reason why they play
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: every year. They're like rivals, but they're friendly rivals, if
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: that makes sense. Although Notre Dame has still annihilated them,
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: I think, the last couple of times they played them.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: But in this case, yeah, I would take the points
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: with Navy if I was going to do anything with it.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame won't be thrown off by facing the triple option, though.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, they play Navy every year, so they are
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: used to that, at least. But, yeah. Yeah. I would
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: take the points. It's not really that high of a
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: total either, mid-50s, although it has gone up a little bit.
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: But lean towards taking the points with Navy in that one.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Next game is one of the only two ranked versus
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: ranked matchups of the day. On ESPN at noon, number 22, Arizona,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: number 13, Texas Tech. I don't know how sold I
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: am on either of these teams, to be honest. They're ranked.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: They have good records. They both face pretty weak schedules.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: Arizona has a loss at BYU. It was a fairly
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: close game, although they wound up losing by 11. But
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: you don't really expect them to go into high elevation
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: and beat a physical team like BYU. Texas Tech, a
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: little bit less of a physical team than that. Arizona
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: coming off a blowout win last week. That was one
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: of our losses on the show here last week. Iowa State,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: awful performance from that bad call by me. I thought
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: that it was going to be bad that Arizona was
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye after going into the bye hot.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: I thought their momentum would be stalled out, and I
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: thought they'd be looking ahead to this game. Shouldn't have
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: put it on the card. Hopefully my plays are going
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: to be a little bit stronger this week. But as
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: we went 2-2 last week on the Saturday college football board,
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: started out 2-0, though, and a bunch of my leans
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: were correct, which pisses me off more when I just
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: don't pick the right games. But anyway, Texas Tech, though,
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: they have not faced a difficult schedule either. But Texas
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: Tech's coming off an ugly loss. They lost in Cincinnati
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: by double digits. Texas Tech was a big favorite in
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: that game, so you know I talk about when a
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: team is a big favorite and they play bad, a
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: lot of times they do bounce back in the next game.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Problem is, that was their first loss deep into the season,
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: and I also talk about how when a team takes
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: their first loss deep into the season... that sometimes will
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: hang them over into the next game. And then you
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: do have to weigh, is it a dream crusher scenario too?
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Their momentum could definitely be stalled out by that. But
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: is Texas Tech taking one loss going to crush their dream?
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: Which I think their goal pretty much this year is
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: to do at least what they did last year and
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: get it to the playoff. Their goal is to win
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: the Big 12 and then that will put them in
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: the playoff. So the answer is no, their dream is
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: not crushed yet. They're a one loss team right now.
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: They could definitely still get into the conference championship game here.
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: They got to beat Arizona. I mean, so yeah, if
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: they do that, then they will knock Arizona off of their,
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: not off of their perch really, but they're tied right now.
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: So obviously Texas tech needs to do that. And I
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: don't believe they play BYU this year. Let me see. No,
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: they don't. So they would need BYU to like stumble
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: at some point as well, or have the tiebreaker against them,
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: however that works. But yeah, Yeah, I like Texas Tech.
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: I think it's more of a bounce-back spot for them.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: That would be my opinion. Bad loss for them in Cincinnati,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: but as a big favorite, double-digit favorite. The game was
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: pretty turnover and penalty-riddled for Texas Tech, even though Cincinnati
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: did actually out-gain them. But I think I would prefer
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: the Texas Tech side here, even though it might look
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: a little bit easy to play them at, like, 3.5 here.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: And the money's actually not agreeing with it. 57% of
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: the tickets... 53 of the cash on texas tech but
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: they're not a hugely public side or anything although it
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: does look like some of the money drove them down
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: from like four and a half to three and a
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: half here maybe a little bit of money coming in
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: on the arizona side here and maybe again because of
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: the rankings maybe it looks a little bit too easy
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: to lay a short price with texas tech but if
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: i was going to play that game i think that's
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: what i would do if i was going to play
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: the side and you know i am a side i'm
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: a side man um Yeah, married women have me on
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: the side, man. That's my goal. I'm a bull, actually. No,
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: not a Chicago bull, though I was the other day
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: when we got a win on those guys the other day.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: All right, next game is number 19, SMU at Syracuse
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: on ESPN2. Kind of a weird spot for SMU to
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: have to go up to Syracuse, New York. SMU kind
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: of new to the ACC, so a little bit of
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: a weird travel spot here going up to play in
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: the Carrier Dome or whatever it's called now. SMU, I mean,
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: they're kind of rolling along. They face an easy schedule, though,
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: and they haven't looked good on the road. Their road
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: results were a three-point win at Florida State and a
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: loss at Louisville. That's not great, so their road track
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: record is not that good. They haven't really faced a
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule. They're coming off destroying California, but that's not
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: really a great win or anything, and maybe they'll be
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit overconfident off of that win. My problem
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: with Syracuse is I don't like the spot that they're
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: in because they just pulled off an upset. North Carolina
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: that was a nice upset from them I think North
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: Carolina probably got caught looking ahead to the Miami game
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: they have this week and it was a weird travel
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: spot for North Carolina to have to go up there
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: but yeah that's the issue like normally I might be
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: looking to maybe take the points with Syracuse here but
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: because they're coming up a nice upset win over Bill Belichick,
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: North Carolina has been playing a little bit better. And
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: I believe Syracuse was like a double digit underdog in
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that game, or maybe they weren't quite that. Let me see.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: I think there were at least a touchdown dog in
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: that one. That was on the road actually at North Carolina,
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: my mistake. So yeah, that was an overtime upset as well.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: So that was a big effort from Syracuse having to
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: play extra, a little bit of extra football there. to
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: come from behind basically multiple times and then win it
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: in overtime. And they were a 7.5-point underdog. It opened 9.5,
• 12:30
  Speaker 1: but it was 7.5. So, yeah, I mean, I think
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: I will still lean to Syracuse in this game, though. Just,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know, it seems like a little bit of
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: an odd spot for SMU here. And they're just kind
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of rolling along, facing no competition. But I don't want
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: to do it because Syracuse is off that big upset.
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: I can't do it. But I believe the money is
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: all over Syracuse in this game, so just, I guess,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: keep that in mind here. I'll look at that in
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: a second. The other thing I will point out is
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Syracuse has been maybe underperforming a little bit because they've
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: had quarterback issues. They've had multiple of their quarterbacks get injured,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: but their original starting quarterback, who I thought they just
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: benched because he's not that good, Angeli, he's back and
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: he looked pretty good last week, so he will play. So,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I don't know, maybe that does help Syracuse. Looking at
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: this game here, hold on. Yeah, SMU is public a
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: little bit, 61% of the tickets, 60% of the money
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: on Syracuse, though, so the money is coming in on Syracuse,
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: like I said. I guess I will agree with that
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: and lean that way. It is a strong market read,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: at least, and I usually do not want to disagree
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: with a market read that's that strong, but I just
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: don't want either team in this one, really. So when
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: that's the case, I mean, possibly the over makes sense,
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: although I'm not really much of a totals guy, but
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: the total is really high, 58 and a half. And
• 13:45
  Speaker 1: SMU's offense has been lighting it up because they still
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: got Jennings there and a bunch of returning guys on
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: that offense. And Syracuse's offense is better with Angele there,
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: it does appear, so there is that as well. If
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: you're going to take Syracuse, I would try to find
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the 10. The number's all over the place. I see 10.
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: I see 9.5. I see 8.5. But that 8.5 might
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: be not accurate. I think that's at FD, I believe,
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: is what book that is there. That might just be
• 14:13
  Speaker 1: incorrect information, though. It looks like you probably can get
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: 10 on Syracuse if you really want it. And if
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: you're going to play Syracuse, get at least 10 because
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: it's the key number, obviously. All right. Number 25, Wisconsin
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: at Iowa on Fox at noon. This one almost made
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: the cut for me because you have, first of all,
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: you have a situation where Wisconsin is now ranked and
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: they haven't been ranked for like three years. They've had
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: some bad times at Wisconsin, man. And all of a
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: sudden when a team is all of a sudden ranked
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: and they're not used to it and they haven't been
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: ranked in that long. it's like a different mindset. And
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: sometimes they can get overconfident. Sometimes the other team will
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: be gunning for them because of that. And for Iowa,
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: they just dropped out of the rankings at the same
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: time last week. So Iowa was in the rankings until
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: last week. And I am not convinced that Wisconsin is
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams. Wisconsin has returned to
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: like smash mouth football, which is good for them. Iowa
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: kind of plays the same style, like run the football,
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: play defense, play physical. Um, To me, I think the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: price is actually a little bit short on Iowa in
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: this one, and I like the fact that Wisconsin is
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: now ranked and Iowa's not, so they flip-flopped because of
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: what the teams did last week. Wisconsin had a nice
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: home upset of USC last week, and they played pretty
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: tough in UCLA the week before that, so they're coming
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: off two pretty big games here. Now, while I don't
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: think they're going to overlook Iowa necessarily because Iowa is
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: a solid team and it's not really a game you're
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: going to overlook, it is a game where Wisconsin's going
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: to have to play like a third straight big game,
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: and they're coming off a nice home upset win, like
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: I said, over USC. Iowa just lost at Minnesota last week,
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: so that was a bad game for Iowa. I think
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Iowa might have been coming out of a bye as well.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: I forget what my handicap was on that. I know
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: I almost put Minnesota on my card in that game.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: I probably should have. Minnesota easily covered and won that
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: game outright, but so Iowa's now coming off an upset
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: loss and Wisconsin's coming off an upset win. So I
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: think it goes in the opposite direction here. I like
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: Iowa in this game and Wisconsin, by the way, the
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: last time they won in Iowa, I think Wisconsin had
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: Jonathan Taylor on their team. I think it was like
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: almost a decade ago. So I think they play in
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Iowa basically kind of every other year or so. So yeah,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: they've had a bunch of straight losses in Iowa. Wisconsin
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: doesn't tend to perform well there. So I would play
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: Iowa if I was going to play this one. The
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: money seems to agree with it. 57% of the tickets,
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: 67% of the cash on them. They opened three, but
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: it looks like you might be able to find a
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: two and a half on Iowa now, which is key
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: because this is probably going to be a low scoring
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: smash mouth game. You know what I mean? So getting,
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: you know, every point is worth much more, but it's
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: going to be a low total. And you can see
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: this game is a low total. It's like 38 and
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: a half. I think it's Or what is that? Am
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: I not reading? I'm blind.
• 17:02
  Speaker 4: 36.5?
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Is that what I see? Yeah, 36.5. I was looking
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: at the screen in the screen here. I had to
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: bring the other window back up. But yeah, 36.5. So
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: low total. So every point matters. And usually I like
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: to take the dog with a low total like this.
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: But I think Iowa's the right side. And if you're
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: going to get the number below 3, that's what I
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: would do. This one was close to being a play
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: for me. I would lay the 2.5 with Iowa if
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: you can get 2.5. You could also play Iowa Moneyline,
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and then you don't have to worry about it. You
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: just need them to win the game. You'll have to
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: pay a little bit more for it, obviously, but that's
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: obviously an option here. And I would still not disagree
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: with the under either, although it dropped off that somewhat
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: key number of 37, and now you're looking at 36.5.
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: But to me, this game looks like it's going to
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: be a grind, man, like a real low-scoring game. And
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers, I mean, they're just telling you that, obviously.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: But the total's low for a reason, as I always say,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: so the under makes sense in that game as well.
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: All right, Cal at NC State, noon ACC Network. I
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: mentioned when I gave out the Baylor play on the
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: morning show for tonight, three teams have fired their coach
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: coming into this week. One of them is NC State.
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: So NC State has fired their coach. I think their
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: special teams coach or something is now their interim coach.
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know. These interim coaches usually are just somebody
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: already in the system, though, which I think is good.
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: I think it's actually a positive when a team fires
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: their coach if they're not doing well. Because obviously there's
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: something going on there where the guys aren't responding to
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: the coach, whatever. And the interim coach is not going
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to change the system because he's already part of this
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: coaching system. So the players don't have to worry about
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: the playbook changing or anything like that. So the continuity
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: can kind of stay there. So I like that. I
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: think the fire coach Should give them a spark here.
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: NC State's definitely been underperforming. Their talent level, they should
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: be better than they are at the very least. So
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: I think it's good. And as I said with Baylor today,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: I think it could be twofold. Number one is... The
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: players might play better for that interim coach. Maybe they
• 19:03
  Speaker 1: just weren't responding to the previous coach, and, you know,
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: it can shake things up and spark them. But also,
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: the players want to prove that they're not the problem.
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: They want to prove the coach was the problem, right?
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: And we saw Baylor actually put up a bunch of
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: offense tonight, so it worked out in that game. This
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: one's not going to make my card or anything like that,
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: but I'm going to lean towards NC State. because of
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: the fire coach phenomenon and they've been underperforming they're definitely
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: better than cal and it's also going to be a
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: weird spot for cal uh coming east and we can
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: look at what cal has done coming east and it
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: has not been good uh their games that they've played
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: east they did win at syracuse but um last time
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: they came east sort of east they got blown out
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: by smu uh syracuse isn't really that good anyway that
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: was a misleading result syracuse probably should have won that
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: game and then that was it the other road game
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: they lost that at UNLV which is not a great
• 19:55
  Speaker 1: result either necessarily although I know UNLV is one of
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: the better Mountain West teams or where are they in
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: the Mountain West I think they are um Now, Cal
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: is coming off a blowout at SMU, and they're kind
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: of staying. I'm assuming they did not fly back home
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: after that. I would assume that they're probably just staying
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: somewhere in between Texas and North Carolina for this, so
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: at least they don't have to worry about that. And, yeah,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: usually when you get blown out, it is a bounce-back spot,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: but I just think the NC State spark from the
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: new coach is going to help them here. NC State
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: just lost in Stanford last week, and that's why they
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: fired their coach. That was a bad loss. a favorite
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: on the road at Stanford. So, yes, NC State is
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: having to come back east. They're going to have to
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: have more of a time zone adjustment than Cal is.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: So that is a little bit of a negative for
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: NC State here. But I think it's easier, as I
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: always say, to go from west coast to east coast
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: and play an earlier game. I think that's easier than
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: going east coast to west coast to play a night
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: game because playing late at night on your biological clock
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: is when you're more tired, in my opinion, than playing
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: in the morning when you have more energy. So I'm
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: not as worried about that. You might worry a little bit, though,
• 21:04
  Speaker 1: that NC State does have Duke on deck. That is
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: a big game. I mean, it's an in-state rival. But
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: fire coach phenomenon, I think, will spark the team. And
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: I believe NC State is a huge favorite in this one.
• 21:16
  Speaker 1: Let me see. Yeah, they're a 9.5-point favorite. They opened 7.5.
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: The money looks like it is coming in on NC
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: State here, and I'm agreeing with it. 65% of the tickets,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: 82% of the cash on them. If you want NC State...
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: Don't lay a 10. You can find a 9.5 right
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: now pretty easily, though. I don't know if it's going
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: to hit 10 or not. It might. But yeah, that's
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: what I would do. And plus, people are going to
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: look at this and see NC State's a below 500 team.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: I mean, as you can see, the public's not really
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: going to jump on them and want to lay a
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: large number like this on a team that's below 500.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: They're just not going to do it. So yeah, I
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: think the fire coach phenomenon might be the biggest part
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: of that handicap. So I'd lean NC State there, but
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: don't feel that strongly about it. Boston College is going
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: to play at Duke. This is on the CW at noon.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: For BC, they just pulled off a nice upset. And
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: I'm assuming they're not coming back to Boston between these
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: two games, and I'm not sure. But they just won
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: at Georgia Tech. Nice upset win for BC there. But
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: I always talk about how when a team just pulled
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: off an upset, a lot of times they tend to
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: be a little bit flat in the next game. So
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: that might be the case here. So I don't love that.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: And they're playing a third road game in four games.
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: which isn't that good. I think they had a bye
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: in between one of these, though. They did. They had
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: a bye after the SMU game. As far as Duke
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: is concerned, Duke is coming off kind of a big win, too,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: over Virginia, which was the rematch of the ACC title
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: game last year, although that would have been a revenge
• 22:43
  Speaker 1: game for Virginia, and they didn't get it done, so
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: I was wrong about that game. So decent win for
• 22:48
  Speaker 1: Duke there, so I don't necessarily want to be on
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: Duke after that. And as I mentioned with the NC
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: State handicap, Duke does play them next. And then Miami.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: So those games are going to be bigger for Duke
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: than this game against BC. So, yeah, I mean, I
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: don't really want either team here. I guess one thing
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: we could point out is that Duke did lose at
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech earlier this year. But when I handicapped that game,
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: I almost put Georgia Tech on my card. I talked
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: about how Duke went into the bye. undefeated, and I
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: think that's bad. I think the bye disrupts your momentum,
• 23:19
  Speaker 1: and that's what happened there. And I think Georgia Tech
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: had gone into the bye on like a losing streak
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: or something, so the bye helped Georgia Tech a lot more.
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: They pulled off the upset there. But the public might
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: look at this and think, oh, if Georgia Tech beat
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: Duke and then, or excuse me, yeah, if Georgia Tech
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: beat Duke and BC beat Georgia Tech, then, you know,
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: the BC should be able to at least cover as
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: an underdog here against Duke, right? But, yeah, again, that's
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: not really the way that it works, though. So, all
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: that being said, what do we do with this game?
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, it's a little bit of a
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: difficult call to me. Duke, 61% of tickets, 62% of
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: the cash on them. They're a 7, 7.5-point favorite. The
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: line hasn't really moved a whole lot. I don't know.
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: I guess I'm going to lean slightly towards Duke here
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: because of the transitive thing and because BC is coming
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: up that upset win, which I think was a little bit.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that might have you in a little bit more
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: of a letdown spot. The Duke beating Virginia again. And
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: Virginia's kind of falling off a little bit. So I
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: guess I would lean towards laying it with Duke, but
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: not a strong opinion for me on that one. Which
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: leads us to the first play that I have at
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: noon as well. Illinois at Maryland, Fox Sports 1. Yeah,
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a play for me.
• 24:33
  Speaker 4: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: This game, I don't think anybody's going to want to
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: touch this one. We're going to take Maryland plus two
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: and a half against Illinois. You know I've been shitting
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: on Illinois all year because I don't think they're good.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: I don't think their defense is good, whatever. But I
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: think this is the spot to fade Illinois. But also
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: I think we can play on Maryland here because guess
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: who that third team is that fired their coach coming
• 24:59
  Speaker 1: into this game? Yeah, that would be Maryland. Maryland fired
• 25:03
  Speaker 1: their coach. So I'm not going to reiterate what I
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: just said because I just said it. You can go
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: back and watch the NC State handicap for that. But
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: the fire coach should spark the team. And the coach, again,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: for Maryland, he was a guy that was elevated from within.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: He was already like the assistant to the head coach.
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: And I think he was like, I don't know, a
• 25:23
  Speaker 1: defensive coordinator or something on the defense, whatever. So Maryland's
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: not going to change their system. The team should get
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: a spark from the coach being fired because they weren't
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: responding to him. He'd been there for a while, and
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: they never responded to him. So I like that. I
• 25:36
  Speaker 1: think Maryland is in a play-on situation after that. And
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: you know if they fired their coach, that means something
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: was going bad. So they could be in a bounce-back
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: spot because of that. And, yeah, it was going real bad.
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: They only have one FBS win, and it was a–
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: you know, they won at UConn, and UConn's been playing
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: all right. They blew them out. But since then, yeah,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: Maryland has no wins in conference. They played a couple
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: of tough games here, though. I mean, they played UCLA, Nebraska,
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. That's not easy. And then they were competitive
• 26:05
  Speaker 1: in their last game against Rutgers, but they still lost.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: I know Rutgers is not that good, but at least
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: Maryland didn't get annihilated in that game or anything. But
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: then the key here is they went into a bye.
• 26:18
  Speaker 1: off of that so I think the bye is going
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: to be helpful for a bunch of reasons number one
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: is they went into the bye in a huge losing
• 26:25
  Speaker 1: streak five game losing streak so you know I'm going
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: to mention it again when you go into the bye
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: in a huge losing streak I think that helps you
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: it disrupts that losing momentum you have extra time to
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: fix what's going wrong so I expect them to be
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: super focused coming out of that not only that but
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: it should give the team extra time because they fired
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: their coach I think pretty much right after they lost
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: to Rutgers they fired their coach so they've had More
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: than a week to prepare with the new coach here
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: as well, even though, again, he's interim. They raised him
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: from within. But it gives them extra time to figure
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: things out and get used to him being the guy
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: and whatever. So I think that's good. I think they
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: fired the coach at one of the best possible times
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: you could do it. Give your team the extra time
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: during the bye to figure it all out with the
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: new coach. Love all that. So I like it. It's
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: a total bounce-back spot for Maryland here. And you're going
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: to get them as a home underdog here. with extra rest,
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: but it gets better than that because Illinois, they just
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: pulled off an upset of Oregon last week, okay? And
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: they were double-digit underdogs, I'm pretty sure, in that game,
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: even though they were at home. Oregon's been underperforming, no
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: doubt about that. That was a big win for Maryland.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, Oregon, yeah, like, they made the playoff last year.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: They were supposed to be one of the best teams
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: in college football this year. They've massively underperformed, but Maryland
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: was able to get that huge win as an underdog.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: We know Oregon doesn't do that well when they leave
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: the Pacific time zone, It's just the way that it
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: is in the Big Ten with all these weird travel spots.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: So I think we could dial it back a little
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: bit on Illinois getting that win there. And Illinois got
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: completely outgained by Oregon in the game. So it was
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: misleading as well. Oregon outgained them by over 100 yards.
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: And there weren't really many turnovers to speak of here.
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: So I honestly don't even know how Oregon lost this
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: game by 11. Statistically, the game was really close. So
• 28:08
  Speaker 1: I have no clue how Illinois won this game by
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: 11 points. No clue. I'm not sold on this Illinois
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: team at all, but I think they're going to be
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: in a letdown spot off of that. And they got Nebraska, UCLA, Iowa,
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: and Northwestern to finish their.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: Season.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: So all of those games are bigger than this one
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: at Maryland, man. I mean, this looks like the spot
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: where they're going to get tripped up. Going to a
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: venue that maybe they're not that familiar with, going east
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: to face Maryland here. And they got all better opponents
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: on deck here. Even though Nebraska hasn't played as well recently,
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: Nebraska was still hot to start the season. UCLA and
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Northwestern both ranked, and Iowa's been ranked most of the
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: season too. So yeah, this is clearly the down spot
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: in the schedule here. This is the game that is
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: the least impactful left on Illinois' schedule. I think they
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: get caught here. I say we do it. And of course,
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: Illinois played last week as well, so Maryland's got the
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: rest edge here. Money is all over Maryland. The public
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: is only going to be on Illinois here. It did
• 29:08
  Speaker 1: open three briefly. So I would say wait on this
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: and see if you can get a three on this
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: because the public is on Illinois here, although I don't
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: know how much volume is really coming in on this game.
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: So I don't know if it's going to stay up
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: there or if it's actually going to go up to
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: three or not. Some of the books are pretty close, though,
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to three. 74% of the tickets are on Illinois. 65%
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Maryland. But I think there's no
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: harm in waiting. If you wind up having to take
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: the two or something... It's whatever. Three is the key number.
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: So you want to, I would hold out, try to
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: find the three unmerited. I'll update it if I'm able
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: to find what I'll update in the description, whatever. Now
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: the total is not really that low, you know, 53, 54,
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: but whatever. In a game with a short price like this,
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: taking the points, it's whatever. It's not that many points.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: You're pretty much saying Maryland's going to win the game.
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: I know that sounds like an insane thing to say,
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: but that is what I'm saying. And Illinois, again, the
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: public is on Illinois because it looks so easy to
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: play them. Illinois just beat Oregon. They're 4-3 or whatever.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: Maryland's lost five games in a row, 2-5. Maryland's got
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: no good wins on the entire season, so the public is...
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: Never going to be on Maryland here. And yeah, I
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: worry about their resume a little bit, but this is
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: all about the spot. I love the spot here, the
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: way it sets up. Maryland will be the play in
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: that one. See if we can get the three on that.
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: All right. ESPNU at noon. We got UAB in South Florida. Yeah,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: this is an ugly one. I mean, I think both
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: these teams are... Really ugly. Not necessarily, not appearance-wise necessarily,
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: but the offenses that we're dealing with here are not
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: that good. I know I've been making fun of UAB.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: They've pulled off some upset wins here, but their resume
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: is not that impressive. And they're coming off that weird
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: 13-point overtime win where they upset East Carolina. I don't
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: know if it sets them up for a great spot
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: after that. They went into a bye off of that, too. And, yeah, like,
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: I don't know if... I mean, maybe it's happened before,
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: seeing a two-touchdown overtime win. It's very, very rare, though.
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: You know, it has to... You have to have a
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: specific set of circumstances for that. So that was a
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: really misleading result, right? Like, East Carolina was the favorite
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: in that game, even though it was at UAB. That's
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: how not good UAB is considered to be by oddsmakers.
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: East Carolina was winning that game for a lot of
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: the game, and then somehow UAB came back, tied it, 17-all,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: sent it to overtime, scored a touchdown in overtime, and
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: then East Carolina threw a pick six in overtime, and yeah...
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: For whatever reason, UAB, instead of just running out of
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: bounds or going down with it, ran it all the
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: way back. So pretty misleading. Like 30-17 is not really...
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: That doesn't really tell you the story of what happened
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: in that game. And now coming out of a bye.
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: So they went into a bye on that good note.
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: A nice upset win. I think that bye might disrupt
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: whatever momentum they might have had from that. So I
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: don't like the spot for UAB here. For South Florida...
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: They just beat Kent State. I think they went into
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: a bye as well, actually. Let me see. They did.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: So they went into the bye on a positive note
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: as well, but beating Kent State... Kent State's playing right now,
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: I think. I don't know what's going on in that
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: game right now, but beating Kent State is not a
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: big deal, okay? South Florida obviously was favored in that one,
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: so I think UAB's win was... much bigger, so I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: like South Florida in this one as bad as they are,
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: but you're going to have to lay a bunch of
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: points with them. I don't love that both teams went
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: into the bye on a good note, so I don't
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: really love that for either team, but I think UAB's
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: note was better, and it was misleading, and it was
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: an upset win. The money doesn't agree with me on
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: this one. South Florida, 60% of the tickets on them,
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: 76% of the cash on UAB, but I don't agree.
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: I would lay it with South Florida on this one
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: if I was going to do anything with it. Seven
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: and a half, but Laying points with an offense that's
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: as bad as South Florida's, yeah, not really something that
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: I would want to do. The total's 41.5, so it's
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: a low total, too. I don't love laying points with
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: low totals like that, either. So, yeah, obviously this one
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: is not anywhere near my card, but I'm giving out
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: a side opinion on every one of these games, so
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: slight lean for me to South Florida there. But caution,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: because the market is definitely disagreeing with that. CBS Sports
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: has a MAAC game here, Bowling Green at Western Michigan.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: We have MAACtion going on right now tonight, by the way,
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: getting us ready for Tuesday MAACtion. How fun. We get
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: to watch the MAAC in primetime on Tuesday. Bowling Green's
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: been really bad. They're coming up with another couple of
• 33:41
  Speaker 1: losses here. Maybe it sets them up to bounce back.
• 33:46
  Speaker 1: They played at least competitively in the last two games,
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: but a loss to Ball State is pretty bad. The
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: last game, they were only a three-point underdog against Buffalo
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: and lost by seven. That's not a horrible result there.
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: Going on the road to face Western Michigan. Now, Western
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: Michigan is one of the top teams in this conference,
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: but I think the spot is tricky for Western Michigan.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: I liked them to win this conference, but now I
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, they could still do it. They
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: only have one loss in conference so far, so that's
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: not that bad. So they could still do it. But
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: they're coming off a big, impactful loss against Toledo, a
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: high-scoring game, where Toledo actually outgained them by like 200
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: yards or something in that game. So that seven-point loss
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: was a little bit misleading. Toledo definitely ran over Western Michigan.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: I thought Western Michigan's defense was... like the better unit
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: in the game there as far as like, I thought
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: Western Michigan's defense was going to get them that game.
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: And that did not happen at all. The game became
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: a shootout, which is what Toledo wanted it to be.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: But that was a big game, like big game in
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: the Mac, two of the top teams in the Mac,
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: close game and shootout type of game. And Western Michigan
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: lost that game. I think Western Michigan might be hung
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: over coming off of that game. So I would lean
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: towards Bowling Green plus the points in this one. Western
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: Michigan is a two touchdown favorite here. If you're going
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: to take Bowling Green, try to get the 14, obviously
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: get on that key number there. 66% of the tickets,
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: 66% of the cash on Western Michigan. So they are
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: a public side. Total's pretty low, 44, 44 and a half.
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: So that makes it easier to take two touchdowns, right?
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: Because Western Michigan is not that prolific of an offensive team.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: And obviously if it's going to be an ugly low
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: scoring game, it makes it easier for the underdog to
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: cover a number like this. So yeah, I would lead
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: Bowling Green plus the points in that one. And Bowling Green,
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if I'm ever going to
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: have a play on them again this season, but the
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: one time we did, we lost on the show, so
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But whatever. Next game up as we
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: move to 1230 Eastern Michigan at Rutgers on Big Ten Network.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: I'm going to have a play in this one too.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: Let's do it. I'll annoy you with the best bets
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: intro again.
• 35:52
  Speaker 4: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: Mostly so I can take a drink of water here,
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: but People are not going to like this one either.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: We're going to take Rutgers plus 16 and a half here.
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: This one I would also wait and see if you
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: can get 17 on this. 17 is a key number
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: in football, obviously. So I would wait, but I still
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: like it at this number. I don't know if we're
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: going to get the 17 or not. But, yeah, the
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: first two games you can wait on to try to
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: get the key number. But Michigan's in a real difficult
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: spot here. I gave you guys Michigan last week, and
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: they got the cover for us last week against Indiana.
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: And remember, my handicap on that, Indiana I thought was
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: in a really difficult spot because they were coming off
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: almost beating Ohio State, which would have been a huge
• 36:33
  Speaker 1: win for them. I thought Indiana was hungover coming off
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of that game, and I believe Michigan was coming off
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: some ugly performance. So hold on. Wait.
• 36:43
  Speaker 4: Hold on.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: What am I looking at here? Michigan, oh yeah, Michigan
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: barely got by Penn State, that's what it was, yeah, so, yeah,
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: I mean, mostly it was the fate of Indiana last week, though,
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: and that was a 6-6 game going into overtime, it
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: was incredibly low scoring, which, by the way, that's going
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: to factor into this, like, Michigan has an offense that
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: you do not want to lay this many points with, man,
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: so that's another factor here that, yeah. Taking a bunch
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: of points against a Michigan team that doesn't do that
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: well offensively is also something I like doing, even though
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: we got fucked against UTEP. Michigan was only winning that game,
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: I think, 17-14 at the half or something against UTEP.
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: And then UTEP just, I don't know, they didn't even
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: show up in the second half or something. I don't
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: know what that was. So we did lose on UTEP.
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: on the show, you know, a full disclosure there. That
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for Michigan. I thought, uh, coming
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: off the upset of Oklahoma, which was a win on
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: the show, by the way, I'll talk about my wins
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: and losses. Um, And then Michigan did have Iowa coming
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: up after that. So I thought it was a great
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: spot to fade them. It didn't happen. But if you
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: exclude that UTEP game, Michigan has not scored more than
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: 21 points in any game this season. And you're asking
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: them to cover 16 and a half here on the road.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: The only time they've been able to score more than
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: 20 is against horrendous UTEP. And, yeah, they haven't been
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: able to score as many points against anybody in the
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: Big Ten. Although, yes, Rutgers will be the worst team
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: they've played so far in the Big Ten. I'm not
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: denying that. But Michigan also couldn't score against Western Michigan. So,
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: you know, not a good sign for Michigan laying a
• 38:18
  Speaker 1: bunch of points here. But now Michigan's coming off that
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: huge game against Indiana, dude, where it was a 6-6
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: game going into overtime at the end of regulation. So
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: no offense happened in that game. Ridiculously low scoring. And
• 38:31
  Speaker 1: then Michigan wound up falling short in overtime. Indiana won
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: with an overtime touchdown. I think Michigan's going to be
• 38:38
  Speaker 1: flat coming out of that game. Simple as that. Huge
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: effort from them. Punishing physical game. Almost were able to
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: pull off the upset against Indiana. Two really physical defenses
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: involved in that game. Coming off that, now they have
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: to go east to play Rutgers. Yeah, no. And up next,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: by the way, they got Michigan State. I know Michigan
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: State's not playing well. But that is still a rivalry game.
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: And then after that, they go to Oregon, UCLA, Ohio
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: State to finish this off. So Rutgers looks like the
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: least game. This is the game that they have the
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: most potential to overlook out of their remaining games. This
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: is the game that I think means the least on
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: their remaining schedule. So yeah, we're going to jump in
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: and take Rutgers here in this one. Michigan also has
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: not left the central time zone all season. And I
• 39:20
  Speaker 1: know going east, it shouldn't be that big of a deal.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: It'll be a little bit earlier for them, but still...
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: It's still kind of weird. You know, they haven't traveled
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: outside of their town. zone all season. I'm pretty sure
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: that's the case. I don't think any of these were
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: neutral site games. That's unless was this game against Oklahoma neutral? No,
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: I don't think it was. I think it was in
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: the big house. Yeah. So that's kind of weird. And
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: by the way, the only time they played a road
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: game this season was at Minnesota, and they lost that
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: game outright. So that's not a good sign either. This
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: late into the season, first time they're leaving this time zone,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: and only the second road game they've had to play. Yeah,
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: doesn't look like a good spot to me for Michigan here.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: And we'll jump on Rutgers here. Rutgers... They got obliterated
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: last week against Northwestern, so this could be a bounce-back
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: spot for them. I mean, that's an embarrassing loss. I
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: don't know what happened in that game. Maybe they were
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to this game because, you know, Rutgers, you know,
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: they're pretty much done for the season at this point,
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: although I guess technically they could still become bowl-eligible or whatever.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: But at this point, you know, when you have a
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: team like Rutgers, it's almost dead on the season. They're
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: only going to get up for certain games remaining on
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: the season, but you know they're going to get up
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: for a home game against Michigan. Coming off an embarrassing loss, Michigan...
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: huge name in college football coming into their place yeah
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: Rutgers will get up for this game and like I
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: said this is going to be a low total in
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: this one too so it makes more sense to take
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the points here let me see yeah it's 44 and
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: a half it opened 48 and it's down to 44
• 40:50
  Speaker 1: and a half so yeah you can take 16 and
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: a half at the very least with a low total
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: like that that looks good to me too all the
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: points are going to be worth more Michigan's got 57%
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: of the tickets and 62% of the cash right now
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: but I'm not Not really, yeah, seeing a whole lot there.
• 41:07
  Speaker 1: I think Michigan will be a slightly public side here,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: and I don't really see them getting like real money here,
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: even though the line has moved up from, well, it
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: was 15 when it opened. It looks like it's now,
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know, hold on, wait, I'm looking at the
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: wrong line. Wait, I know it was 14 and a half, basically,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: when it opened, 14 with juice. So it has gone
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: up a little bit to 16 and a half, but
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: to me, I do not think professional money is coming
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: in on Michigan here. I just, There's no way. Like,
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: I see no argument why there'd be professional money on
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: Michigan here. Public money, yes. Professional money, no. But it's
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: my handicap. I'm giving you my handicap on it. It's
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: a situational handicap. Rutgers, I think, is good enough to
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: make a play on there. So, yeah, there we go.
• 41:50
  Speaker 1: Rutgers plus the points there. Don't know if they're going
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: to actually get to 17 or not. But, yeah, that's
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: how I look to play that game. That's how I
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: will be playing that game. Auburn at number 12, Ole
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: Miss at 1245 Eastern on the SEC network. This one,
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss, they're coming off a loss to Texas last week.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: That was a tough game, although I believe Texas was
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: winning that game by 10 late, but that was still
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: a pretty big game for Ole Miss, and they're now
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: coming off of that, a big game. It was the
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: national spotlight game. I think it was the college game
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: day game too. Now they've got to play Auburn, and
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: up next they've got Georgia to deal with on deck. Yeah,
• 42:28
  Speaker 1: I think this is a sandwich spot. This one hasn't
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: made the cut for me. This was close. I do
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: like Auburn in this one. The one, like, I mean,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: I don't know if I should even have a hesitation
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: about this because Ole Miss, that was obviously a game
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: they were going to get up for, right, against Texas.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: But maybe Ole Miss feels like they got upset in
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: that game even though they didn't. You know, that's kind
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: of my reservation with this is that Ole Miss went
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: into that game the higher ranked team. But I talked
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: about it last week. I told you I liked Texas
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: in that game. And a bunch of professionals were definitely
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: on that one. Maybe I should have put it on
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: the card.
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: I don't know.
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: But Texas, you know, was the lower ranked team. They
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: were actually favored at home. So the odds makers are
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: telling you that Texas, better than the ranking indicated. And
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: they got the job done. But I think, you know,
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: the way to look at this, I think it's still,
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: that was a big game. It was a college game
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: day game in Austin, Texas. Ole Miss coming off of
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: that with Georgia on deck. Yeah. Bad spot. It's just,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: You know, I just have slight reservations with this. That
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: and plus Auburn has screwed me way too many times
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: over the last few years, and maybe that's not a
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: good enough reason to stay off the game, but I
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: am staying off of it right now. Auburn is coming
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: off a blowout loss at home to LSU last week,
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: but that was predictable. I liked LSU. I almost put
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: LSU on the card last week because Auburn... difficult spot
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: man they were coming off a huge upset win of
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: georgia the week before that so i thought it was
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: a like a letdown spot or just a flat spot
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: like i just thought they were gonna have no energy
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: left by the end of that lsu game and yeah
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: lsu easily beat them uh but i think now this
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: does kind of look like more of a bounce back
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: spot now for auburn and auburn's played well on the
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: road i mean they lost by only 10 to tennessee
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: you're the only 10 i see um um Usually the
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: only 10 we see is the amount of points Auburn
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: puts on the scoreboard because they can't score. And full disclosure, yes,
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: that was a loss on the show. Another loss with
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: Auburn in that Tennessee game. They probably should have covered, though.
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, they were within the number all game, and
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: Tennessee scored late to cover. Pisses me off, but whatever.
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: Auburn's been good on the road, though. They played pretty
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: well against Tennessee and upset Georgia on the road. So
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: this is a team that's not easy. phased by going
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: on the road okay so yeah I like Auburn in
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: this one this is probably the strongest opinion I've had
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: that is not on my card so far Ole Miss,
• 44:44
  Speaker 1: 61% of tickets, 63% of the cash on them. They
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: opened 13 and a half, though, and they're already 11
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: and a half, basically. Obviously, at least get 10 and
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: a half on this, but that'll be easy to do.
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: I think you can get 11, 11 and a half
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: on this with no problem. I like Auburn in this one,
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: as I already said. It's not a low total, though,
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: because you're dealing with Ole Miss. Ole Miss, they're all offense, man.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: So the total is pretty high, like 58, whatever, so
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: it makes it easier for the favorite to cover when
• 45:11
  Speaker 1: it's a higher total, but yeah, I don't have too many,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: I have just, I don't know, just something, you know,
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: in my gut is just worrying me about this game,
• 45:20
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what it is, maybe my intuition's off,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: but yeah, this one was very close to making the
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: cut for me, I like Auburn, plus the points in
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that one, all right, next game up, if you want
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: me to talk about some of these ugly, you know, off,
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: off TV games, I can, as I, you know, as
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: I've mention every time, but I kind of prefer not
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: to because I want the show to go faster, and
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: there's way too many games to talk about. I'm giving
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: you all the TV games, so as we move to
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: the 2 p.m. slate here, I'll probably take a hydration
• 45:49
  Speaker 1: break in 15 more minutes or so. Kansas State at
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: Colorado on TNT here. This game... This is a difficult
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: game for me to figure out. Kansas State's coming off
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: a loss at Arizona State. Not a great loss there
• 46:04
  Speaker 1: and now. And I think the spread was pretty close
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: in that one. But yeah, Kansas State didn't play well
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: in that game. But the thing to know about Kansas
• 46:10
  Speaker 1: State is what's going on with their quarterback, Avery Johnson.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: I believe he got hurt in the rivalry game against Kansas.
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: So he's out for Kansas State. So last week should
• 46:21
  Speaker 1: have been a game they were going to get up for,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: sort of, because, you know, I talk about the injured
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: player theory spot where when your quarterback goes down, a
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: lot of times the team will step up their level
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: of play for the next game because they, at least
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: for that first game, because they realize, oh, we have
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: to play harder now that our quarterback is out, right?
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: And a lot of times you get value on that team.
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: But in this case, it didn't happen. They didn't play well.
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: They lost to Arizona State in Knuth's first game as quarterback.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: And I believe it will be him again here. But
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: even so, usually that second game after that injured player
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: theory spot is usually not that good of a game
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: for that team. And going to high elevation against Colorado is,
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: not going to be that easy. And Kansas state is
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: own two and road games so far. So they haven't
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: exactly played that well on the road and they got
• 47:04
  Speaker 1: a ranked opponent coming up next in Oklahoma state. So
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: there's a possible look ahead there to Oklahoma state as well.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: So there are some negatives here for Kansas state, uh,
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: for Colorado. They're coming off five losses in a row. Um,
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: They played pretty well against Utah two weeks ago, though,
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: and I think that's why they wound up flat against
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State last week. As I talked about that game
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: on the show, it's just Colorado put up such a
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: huge effort against that physical Utah team. I just thought
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: there wasn't going to be a whole lot left in
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: the tank for Colorado after that, after almost pulling up
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: that upset. And yeah, they actually hung around with Oklahoma State.
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: They were winning that game, I think, in the third quarter,
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: but they just completely fell apart late in that game.
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: I think they had nothing left in the tank by
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: the end of it. But it was also kind of
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: misleading that Colorado was ever even winning that game because
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State blew the doors off of them statistically. So
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the game wound up being a final that was actually
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: kind of accurate as far as what happened in that game.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State should have won that game big based on
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: the statistics. But still, whenever you lose that badly by
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: 30-whatever points... Yeah, that's a 33. That's embarrassing. So I
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: prefer Colorado in this one coming home off of that game,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: which was kind of an explainable bad performance. Because again,
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: they played Texas Tech and Utah, the two prior games.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: They didn't play that badly in either of those games.
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: And Kansas State right now with their backup quarterback is
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: going to be a step down from all three of
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: those recent opponents that Colorado faced. So yeah, I would
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: lean Colorado here. Problem is you've lost some of the
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: best numbers that were out there on this one. Kansas
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: State opened a one-point favorite, and now the line's already
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: flipped to Colorado minus three. Yeah, I mean, I like
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: Colorado in this game, but yeah, not that strongly, and
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: that is just kind of a crazy line move there.
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: The money is definitely coming in on Colorado. 55% of
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: the tickets on Kansas State, so the public isn't even
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: really siding that heavily with Kansas State, and the money
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: just looks like it's all on Colorado. 62% of the
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: tickets on them, driving that line really far. I guess
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: you could still lay the three with Colorado. Obviously, you're
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: not getting the best of it, though. I would much
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: rather lay two and a half or less than that.
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: You could play the money line on Colorado. That would
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: be the other option. It would be a little bit juicy,
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: but maybe that's the other way to play this. It's
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: just money lining on Colorado if you really want to
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: do it because I do lean Colorado in that game.
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: All right. What else we got here? Yeah, next game up,
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: going to be one of my plays, 3 p.m. Eastern,
• 49:32
  Speaker 1: and yeah, it is a non-TV game, but we're going
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: to this real ugly matchup here, Temple and East Carolina. Yeah.
• 49:38
  Speaker 4: You want to know what I'm betting?
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: Pretty ugly underdog in this one. Temple plus four and
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: a half in this one. I think this one's good.
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: Good enough to make the cut for me. This has
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: a lot going on as far as the situations that
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: I like to look at here. And people are going
• 49:57
  Speaker 1: to look at this and, you know, like, why would
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: you want to play Temple, right? They have one win
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: in conference, two wins on the season. Nothing looking good
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: about them. You know, East Carolina's record isn't that much better.
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: But Temple just lost to Charlotte, man. I mean, that's
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: a really bad loss. Although Charlotte, I don't know if
• 50:12
  Speaker 1: they won tonight, but they were hanging in there against...
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: Who were they playing tonight? Tulane? I forget, so I
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: was wrong about that game, but whatever. Bad loss, though.
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: Temple at home against Charlotte, and they went into a
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: bye off of that, and that was about the worst
• 50:25
  Speaker 1: loss you could possibly have, really, because Temple was a 17.5
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: point favorite in that game when it went off. They
• 50:30
  Speaker 1: actually opened 23.5, and if you dig into the box
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: score there, yeah, I mean, it was a close game.
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Temple gave up a lot of yards to Charlotte. I
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: realize that's bad. Their defense played really bad against a
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: pretty pathetic Charlotte team, but They now have had two
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: weeks to get over that and to prepare for this.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: Temple went into the bye on a really bad note.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: They lost two games in a row. They lost five
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: of their last six. And their last game, like I said,
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: against Charlotte, they lost a 17.5-point favorite. You can't go
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: into the bye on a worse note than that, right?
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: So I think the bye is going to be helpful
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: for Temple, going into the bye on a horrific note
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: like that. I think they're going to use it to
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: fix some things. I think they're going to come out
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: with some effort here in this one. And for East Carolina,
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: I kind of think the opposite about them here. East Carolina,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: they didn't even really have a bye. They have a
• 51:18
  Speaker 1: little bit of extra rest because they played last Thursday,
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: but that was a huge primetime game at Memphis, and
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: East Carolina I thought was in kind of a bounce-back
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: spot because they played that UAB game that I mentioned
• 51:29
  Speaker 1: where they lost by 13 in overtime to UAB the
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: game before that. That was... a bad result for East
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Carolina as a favorite, a misleading result, so I liked
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: East Carolina to hang in there against Memphis coming off
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: of that, and they did, and not only did they
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: do that, but they took Memphis into overtime in Memphis,
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: and Memphis... Basically always one of the better teams in
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: this conference. And Memphis was like a 10.5 point favorite
• 51:52
  Speaker 1: in that game. That was a huge game for East Carolina.
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: And they took Memphis to overtime. Almost pulled off the upset.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: And fell just short. And now they've got to face
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: this Temple team that has extra rest. And that went
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: into a bye horrifically. Yeah. So you have one team
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: coming off a huge performance as an underdog. Falling just
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: short as a big underdog. The other team... Coming off
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: a bad performance is a huge favorite, and they both
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: flip-flopped as far as their roles are concerned now. So
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: you have Temple going from playing real bad as a
• 52:22
  Speaker 1: big favorite to now playing an underdog role. I love
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: looking at teams that flip roles like that. Ever East Carolina,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: they're doing the exact opposite. They're coming off playing really
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: well as a huge underdog. Now they have to flip
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: roles and play the role of a favorite here. That's
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: not a good situation for a team. So yeah, it
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: all lines up well, I think. So yeah, let's take
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: Temple in this one. Yeah, this one's ugly. Nobody's going
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: to be looking at this one, but yeah. East Carolina,
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: 68% of the tickets are on them. 82% of the
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: cash on Temple, so the money is agreeing with me
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: on this one as well. I like it. It's not
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: a low total. It's 50 and a half. It's not
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: exactly high either. So yeah, I mean, Temple, I mean,
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: their defense is a little bit worrisome, but Maybe East
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: Carolina's not potent enough offensively to completely exploit this. And, yeah,
• 53:08
  Speaker 1: getting the points here, the line basically hasn't moved, even
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: though the public is siding with East Carolina to some
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: extent here. I don't think the public's really paying attention
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: to this game, but, yeah, the situation looks really good
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: to me. It has a lot of the things that
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I look for here, most of them really, in fact.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: So Temple will be the play, plus four and a
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: half there in that one. All right. Next up, what
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: we got here. Let's see. Where am I going here?
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: Next is ACC Network, 3.15 p.m.
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: Eastern.
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: Stanford and Louisville. Yeah, this game looks pretty ugly to me.
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: Stanford especially is real ugly, but Louisville's coming off a
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: kind of bad performance where Louisville was coming off that
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: nice destruction of Florida State, which was a win I
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: gave out on the show, by the way, back on primetime.
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: Then they had to go up to Syracuse after that.
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: I thought that was kind of a tricky spot for Louisville.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: They went in and they won at Syracuse, but it
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: was kind of a bad performance from Louisville, and I
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: don't believe they covered in that game. They won by eight,
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: and it was a close game. And now Louisville is
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: coming out of a bye now. But now the question
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: you have to answer is, did they go into the
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: bye on a good note or a bad note? They
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: went in on a two-game win streak, but that performance
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: against Syracuse, I would say, was not exactly good. So
• 54:22
  Speaker 1: I think the bye might help Louisville, even though they
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: did have two wins there. Just wasn't a great game
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: for them against Syracuse. And meanwhile, Stanford... They just pulled
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: off an upset against NC State, and they have to
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: travel east now. And look at what Stanford has done
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: when they've traveled east. Yeah, it's been real bad. When
• 54:41
  Speaker 1: they've traveled east, they have not scored more than seven
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: points in any game where they've traveled east. They lost
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: 35-7 to Duke, 57-3 to Wake Forest. Well, I know
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest is not ranked, but I think they're overrated.
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: And then they lost 58-7 to Notre Dame. I know
• 54:56
  Speaker 1: it's Notre Dame, but still... 58-7. This Stanford team has
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: been horrific traveling east. And Louisville, they're not a joke.
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: They're a pretty good team. I would say out of
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: those teams, Louisville, I think they're better than Wake Forest
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: and Duke. And Stanford did horrible against both of those
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: teams on the road. So I don't think this is
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: good for Stanford, really. They had that nice little upset
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: on primetime last week, beating NC State as a touchdown underdogs,
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: forcing NC State to fire their coach. Um, yeah, I
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: would prefer to be on Louisville in this one. I
• 55:28
  Speaker 1: would lay the points of Louisville here in this one. Um,
• 55:31
  Speaker 1: you know, Sanford's track record in these, uh, road games
• 55:34
  Speaker 1: going East has been a nightmare to say the least
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: Louisville looks like they are getting the money. 62% of
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: the tickets and 91% of the cash. So even though
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: they're a little bit public, it looks like a strong, um,
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: Strong market read there. The money is coming in on Louisville. 22.5
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: is the number there. It really hasn't moved either. So
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: I would lay the points if I was going to
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: do it. And you got a high total here. It's
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: over 60. So Louisville with the amount of offense that
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: they have and how bad Stanford's defense has been on
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: the road and how bad their offense has been on
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: the road. Yeah, Louisville definitely has the ability to do this.
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: And the high total makes it easier to cover a
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: big number like that. So I would lay it with
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: Louisville on that one. I'm usually not laying big favorites,
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: but I like the favorite in that one. Next game
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: is basically the big game of the day, which is
• 56:23
  Speaker 1: why I put it in the title here. Number 17, Florida.
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: Number 3, Georgia. Not at Georgia. Now, this game is
• 56:30
  Speaker 1: always a neutral site game, but it's usually in Jacksonville, Florida,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: which is why they call it the world's biggest outdoor
• 56:36
  Speaker 1: cocktail party. I have no idea why, but this year
• 56:40
  Speaker 1: they moved it to... Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Maybe just to get
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: people to stop calling it the world's largest outdoor cocktail
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: party because apparently you're not supposed to call it that.
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: You can't encourage college kids to drink even though we're
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: all doing it. Or they're all doing it. Yeah, whatever.
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: So now I'm going to call it the world's largest
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: indoor cocktail party. Now, how about that? It is kind
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: of weird, though, because Jacksonville... You know, I mean, you
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: could argue that maybe that the Jacksonville location favors Florida
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: a little bit. They're over in Gainesville, so it is
• 57:11
  Speaker 1: closer to Florida than it is to where Georgia is
• 57:15
  Speaker 1: in Athens, Georgia. But obviously, this location is way closer
• 57:18
  Speaker 1: to Athens, Georgia. I mean, I'm pretty sure. I don't
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: think Athens is that far outside of Atlanta, right? This
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: game's going to be in Atlanta. Very, very strange. So
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: if anything, I think that does help Georgia a little bit,
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: although both teams' fan bases will definitely travel. But I
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: think The location helps Georgia, if anything, here. And what
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: we have going on here, this game almost made the
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: card for me, by the way. What we have going
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: here is kind of an inverted buy situation that I
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: tend to look for. Florida, they went into the buy
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: on a great note. upsetting Texas, and I gave that
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: out on the show. That was a win. I gave
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: it on the show. Huge win. Texas was in some
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: bad spot. I don't remember exactly what it was. I
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: think some sort of sandwich spot. Florida was coming up
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: a hideous loss to South Carolina, so I liked Florida
• 58:00
  Speaker 1: to bounce back there. They did just that. They pulled
• 58:02
  Speaker 1: up the huge upset of Texas. That's how they went
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: into the break there. It looks like Florida lost their quarterback, Filo, too,
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: so I don't know what's going on with their quarterback situation.
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: He might be back because they've had a bye, but Whether,
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: you know, whichever quarterback it is for Florida, I don't
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: even care, honestly, as far as this handicap is. I
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: think it's bad for them that they went into the
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: bye on a real nice upset note there. I think
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: they're going to have their hands full with Georgia, even
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: though Texas is a good team, and they're probably the
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: most comparable to Georgia in that Texas has a really
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: good defense, but Georgia's really good on both sides of
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: the ball. I mean, Georgia's ranked third in the country.
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: They're at least that. They're a top three team in
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: the country. They're really good on offense and on defense.
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: And Florida, they definitely have something lacking on defense. Their
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: offense is very good. But yeah, Georgia's just more of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: an all-around good team here. So you kind of already
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: know which way I'm leaning in this game. And yes,
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: it's going to be towards laying another big favorite in
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: this one. But yes, I don't like the spot for
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: Florida here, even though, yes, they have an extra week
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: to prepare for this. So does Georgia, though. And do
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: you remember what Georgia did going into the bye? Because
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: I do. Georgia lost to Auburn going into the bye
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: that was a horrific loss so you had Florida going
• 59:14
  Speaker 1: into the bye and pulling off an upset as, I think,
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: a double-digit underdog, I want to say, in that game
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: at Texas, whereas Georgia was a double-digit favorite. I think probably,
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: I don't know, at least 17 against Auburn, maybe more
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: than that, and lost that game outright, and that's how
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: Georgia went into the bye. So, yeah, I think Georgia's
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: going to fix things during the bye, man. I think
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: the bye is going to help them more because they
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: went into the bye on a horrendous note. And you
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: can explain what happened in that game, too. I almost
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: put that one on my card because Georgia was coming
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: off their massive win over Alabama, which that was huge
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: because Georgia basically never beats Alabama during the regular season.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: They only beat them in, you know, conference championships and whatever.
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: So that was a horrible spot for Georgia. They had
• 59:56
  Speaker 1: this game on deck too, which is always one of
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: their biggest games of the season. So they got caught
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: in a bad spot. My only concern is that was
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: Georgia's first loss and will that hang them over? That's
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: the question. Like a lot of times it will snap
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: your momentum. So I could see the argument that maybe
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: their momentum actually gets snapped, um, even though they had
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: a buy that they went into on a bad note,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: their momentum might still kind of be stopped rather than
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: having that buy stop their negative momentum because they didn't
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: really have any necessarily negative momentum. It was one bad
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: negative result there. So that's like my only hesitation with
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: this one. I like this one. This one's close to
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: being a play for me. You get the inverted buy
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: situation that I look for, and it is not a
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: dream crusher for Georgia. Like I talk about the dream crusher.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: I referenced it earlier in the show. What that means
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: is that team's hopes are completely dashed. Like, their goals
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: for the season are totally dashed now. With that loss,
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: that's not the case for Georgia. Obviously, their goal is
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: to win the national title. That's their goal. But a
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: one-loss Georgia team, yeah, obviously it's not over for them. Like,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: all the top teams in the country have a loss now.
• 1:01:03
  Speaker 1: So one loss, yeah, is not going to keep Georgia
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: out of the playoff whatsoever, okay? Obviously. So they got
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: to win this game against Florida, obviously, and continue winning.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: But yes, so I like Georgia here. I would lay
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: the points. It opened 10 and a half, 11. It's
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 1: already up to 11 and a half, 12 at some spots.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I would lay that with Georgia here if
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: I was going to play it. And like I said, very,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: very close to making the cut for me. 58% of
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: the tickets, 59% of the cash on Georgia. So not
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: really much of a market read to see there. Public
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: may slightly lean towards Georgia, although I think the public,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: they shy away when they see two ranked teams and
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: one of the teams is a double digit favorite. I
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: think they tend to think, Oh, that means there's like
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit of value on the underdog. Maybe they're
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: especially looking at what these teams did in their last game.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: So I thought Florida had the potential to maybe even
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 1: actually wind up being a public dog in this game.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 1: It doesn't look like they really are, but the public
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: is not heavily siding with Georgia either. So I like
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: Georgia here. Yeah, for sure. Um, total again is not
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 1: I mean it's not low in this game in the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: mid 50s so can't really line a total that low
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: with Florida's offense involved but yeah I mean Georgia should
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: be able to put up a lot of points so
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: Florida's defense is not that good so Georgia should definitely
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: be able to put up some points in that one
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: too so that's what I like there Dirty Sock what's
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: up thanks for hanging out so that's that's one of
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: my strongest that might be my strongest opinion that didn't
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: make the cut for me that one in Auburn I
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: like both of those All right. Let me see. How
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: many games do we have left to talk about here?
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: Am I halfway through? I always, like, zoom out, and
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: I'm like, should I take the break now? Are we
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: halfway through here? Let me see. I'm trying to eyeball
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 1: it here. No, not quite. Let's keep going, I guess.
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: I've got to figure out my hydration schedule, man. What's next?
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Got to scroll down. It was another big game, I thought. Well, no,
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: it's Minnesota at number four, Indiana on CBS. Yeah, I mean,
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 1: this game, Minnesota, I mean, I think Minnesota's overrated at
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: five and two. They got a couple of good wins
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: in here at home against Michigan and against Iowa at home.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: They're going out on the road for this one, though,
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: and while they did have one big upset on the
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: road against Washington, Washington hasn't been that great yet. this
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: is going to be a tough test for Minnesota. Obviously,
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: this is going to be their biggest test of the season,
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: and their other road game, they got annihilated by Purdue,
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: so that's not a great sign. Purdue's not good. Minnesota's
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: now coming up a nice little upset win over Iowa
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: last week, and I thought that was kind of a
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: bad spot for Iowa. I forget exactly what Iowa's coming
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: off of, but I liked Minnesota quite a bit in
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: that one, and they covered and won the game outright.
• 1:03:44
  Speaker 1: And now I'm not going to say this is necessarily
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: a letdown because you're still going to get up for Indiana.
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: I just think Minnesota off a punishing physical game against
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: Iowa coming off of that. And now having to play
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: another punishing defense, like India, Indiana is a very good defense.
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: Their defense is way better than their offenses here. Um,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 1: as Josh Hoover has shown, you know, some signs of
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 1: not being that great as I kind of, I thought
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 1: that would be the case. Really. He's not Mendoza. Okay. Um, And,
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: you know, Hoover having to face better defenses now than
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 1: he did in the Big 12 when he was with TCU.
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 1: But anyway, yeah, Minnesota, I don't love the spot for
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Minnesota coming off that big game against Iowa and having
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: to put up another huge effort here on the road.
• 1:04:25
  Speaker 1: Indiana may finally bounce back here. They had their bad
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: spot last week against Michigan. We got the win with Michigan,
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: even though Michigan lost the game, Michigan covered. That was
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 1: a tough spot for Indiana because they were coming up
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: that monster game against Ohio State where they... Basically, they
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: had that receiver wide open, and the pass was a
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: little bit off from Mr. Hoover there, and the wide
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 1: receiver also didn't know where he was and stepped out
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: of bounds. It was a complete defensive lapse in that
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 1: game by Ohio State, and Indiana failed to capitalize on
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 1: it and lost the game anyway. Brutal, brutal loss for
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: Indiana against Ohio State. So we had to fade them
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 1: last week with Michigan, but now after a really ugly loss,
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 1: lackluster performance, where Indiana only put up six points in
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 1: regulation last week. I think the move here is probably
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 1: to lay it with Indiana, but there are definitely some
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: issues with that, because Indiana's offense is struggling, and they didn't,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 1: in regulation last week, they didn't even score the point spread.
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: So that's kind of a red flag, okay? Like, they
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: were seven and a half point favored, and they only
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: scored six in regulation. That's a red flag, and the
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: fact that this total is going to be really low,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: like probably 41-40, In this game, I can't recommend. If
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: you're forced me to give you an opinion on this,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: I would say lay it with Indiana, but you're going
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: to be laying like 20 points in this one with
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: a really low total here. It's like, oh, God. I mean,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: I definitely can't do it, but I think that is
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: the move in this game if you really want to
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: play it, or at least if you really want to
• 1:05:57
  Speaker 1: play the side, I guess I should say, because there
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: might be better ways to play this. Minnesota's got 52%
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: of the tickets. 53% of the cash on them. And, yes,
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: I was right about how low the total is. Indiana's
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: up to 20.5. Now, if you're going to play Indiana,
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 1: do not lay 21. Lay less than 21 at least.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: Like lay the 20.5 if you're really going to do that. But,
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: you know, laying three touchdowns basically with a total of 40, 41,
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: that is not in my repertoire. You know what I mean?
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, one way, if you like Indiana to win
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: this game and you do think it's going to be
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: low scoring, which I kind of do, You could play
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Minnesota under their team total, but you'd want to try
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: to get 10 on that. You'd need Minnesota to be
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 1: held to 10 or less. A little bit dicey because
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: you could get into a situation where Indiana has a
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: big lead and they take their foot off the gas
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: late and there's a garbage score. That would worry me.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 1: You could play Minnesota's first half team total under maybe.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: And I don't know what that number would be, but
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 1: you'd basically need him to score less than a touchdown probably,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: which is really, really crazy in the first half. So
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Those are my thoughts on that game, though.
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 1: Don't love it, obviously. Next game up is Arizona State
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: at number 8, BYU on Fox. I still think BYU
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: is a little bit overrated at number 8. Looks to
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: me like a little bit of a tricky spot for BYU.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 1: I mean, we faded them last week. We got a
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: win with UCF outright last week. That was a horrible
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: spot for BYU. They were coming up that monumental win
• 1:07:29
  Speaker 1: over Notre Dame, so they were definitely in a letdown spot,
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: having to travel to Orlando, an unfamiliar venue there. Now
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: they're back home, but the question is, does one loss
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: cause a hangover effect? I think it might, because when
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: you get that first loss of the season, this late
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: into the season, a lot of times you essentially lose
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: the same game twice, and you do... have a hangover
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 1: effect coming into the next game. That might be what
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 1: we see with BYU here, because they're playing a lesser opponent,
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, and perhaps more importantly, look who BYU has next.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 1: Next week, they've got to play Utah. That's their biggest rival.
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: That's the Holy War. That's always a huge game, like
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: a physically punishing game all around. Both these teams play physical.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: And not only is it Utah, but Utah's the only
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: undefeated team left in the Big 12. So, That's a
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 1: monster game. It's going to have implications as far as
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 1: who's going to win this conference. This is a bad
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: spot for BYU. Even if you just look at it
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 1: as it being a look ahead for them, it's bad.
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: The one positive you could say is that they're coming
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 1: off a loss as a favorite. So sometimes teams will
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 1: bounce back from that. But yeah, the only way I
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: would look to play this game is to play Arizona State.
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 1: Arizona State did get that win last week against Kansas State.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: Fine win. I mean, I think they were like a
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 1: slight favorite in that one at home, whatever. I guess
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: one issue with Arizona State is they're going into elevation here,
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: which could be a little bit difficult to do, and
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: they have not played well on the road so far.
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: Their two road games, they got annihilated by Texas A
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: & M, and that really doesn't look good now with
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: Texas A & M not playing well at all. And Texas... Tech,
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: who haven't really been that impressive either. So, yeah, that's
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: the other thing that gives me a little bit of
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 1: pause here is Arizona State has been awful in their
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 1: road games so far. But I would take Arizona State
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: if I was going to do this. I do like
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: this one. Maybe not as much as the other two
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: games that I mentioned were almost making the cut from you.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: This one was close. This one was in consideration for
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: me too. I like Arizona State. 69% of the tickets,
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: 74% of the cash on BYU. They opened 15 and
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: a half. They're up to 15. They're up to 16
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: and a half. And it's a pretty low total, 48
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: and a half. So again, taking a lot of points
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: with a low total. Usually a good idea because the
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: points are worth more. For BYU, I don't know if
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 1: LJ Martin is back for them as far as their
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 1: rushing attack. He's their starting running back. He's been out
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 1: for weeks now and I have no idea if he's
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: coming back or not but their offense has definitely struggled
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: a little bit without him and the Oswegers are telling
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: you they don't expect there to be a ton of
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 1: offense here in this one with the low total so
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: yeah again I would take the points of the Arizona
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: State in that one that one is not on my
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: card though but yeah that one's that's definitely not the
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: one that I like the least like I like that
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: one more than most of the games so um you
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: know weighing the you know how strongly I feel about
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: these games you can try to gauge that um Yeah,
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: let's keep going. I know I usually take my hydration
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: break a little bit later, but let me, yeah, maybe
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: a little bit too late. Let's do at least this
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: next game, number 20 Northwestern at Oregon, 3.30 p.m. Eastern Peacock.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 1: Yet again, we have a situation where we have a
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: home favorite that's unranked against an unranked, excuse me, against
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 1: a ranked road underdog. See, at Oregon, despite being unranked,
• 1:10:42
  Speaker 1: they're favored against ranked Northwestern here. So the odds maker
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: is telling you that, yeah, I mean, these teams are
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: at least pretty much evenly matched here. I think Oregon's
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: actually getting shortchanged a little bit here. Like, if Oregon
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: plays up to their potential, yeah, I think they're better
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 1: than Northwestern is. And Northwestern, I don't even know what
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 1: they are. They've come from out of nowhere, and now
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 1: all of a sudden they're ranked 20th I don't know.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, look at their resume, man. Like, what have
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 1: they done? They played one really good game against Indiana
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: where they lost, so they played them close. That was
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: a good performance from them, but their resume has been
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 1: ridiculously soft other than that. So Oregon's played a more
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: difficult schedule than they have. So I don't like Northwestern
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 1: really for that reason. They're coming off a blowout win
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: over Rutgers, which looks good cosmetically, but now they're having
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: to go to the Pacific Coast, and lucky for them
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 1: it's not a late-night game because, you know, I would
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: talk about that. When teams go out west and they're
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: a more eastern team, biological clockwise, it's not good to
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 1: go out to the Pacific Coast. So at least for them,
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: they don't have to worry that much about that because
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: this will be like an evening-ish game for them, like
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 1: early evening game for them. But Oregon hasn't been playing well,
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 1: so you might be able to overlook Oregon. You might
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: overlook Oregon for that reason just because they haven't been
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: playing well. even though, yeah, they're big names, so maybe
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: you don't necessarily overlook them. Northwestern does have Iowa and
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: Ohio State coming up, and I guess there's the potential
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: maybe they look ahead there a little bit. As far
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: as Northwestern going out on the road so far, their
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: true road games were that loss at Indiana, but yes,
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: they did play well in that game, and they almost
• 1:12:15
  Speaker 1: lost at Michigan State. They only won by three, so
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to take away from that really. Northwestern, yeah,
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: that's all I got to say about them. For Oregon, though,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: you know what I already mentioned earlier in the show
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: when I talked about Illinois? Oregon outgained Illinois in that
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: game last week by over 100 yards, and somehow, even without,
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: each team had one turnover in the game. I have
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 1: no idea how Oregon lost that game, 21-10. Like, Oregon
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 1: outgained them by 100 yards. Statistically, and with no turnover
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: edge for one team or the other, Makes no sense
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: that Oregon lost that game. Yeah, Oregon's been playing bad,
• 1:12:53
  Speaker 1: but they did get a good win against Nebraska the
• 1:12:56
  Speaker 1: game before. I almost said Northwestern. I don't want to
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: jinx it. They did beat Nebraska at least the game
• 1:13:01
  Speaker 1: before that, but you remember that was when Oregon didn't
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: really know what they were going to do with their quarterback,
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: but now, you know, it is Raiola. They're continuing to
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: use him. He played the whole game last week, and
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: he was okay in the game. I know their offense
• 1:13:11
  Speaker 1: wound up not really doing much, but his stats are
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: all right in the game, you know. You'd expect them
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 1: to do better, though, for sure, against an Illinois defense
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: that I really don't think is that good. But that
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: was a bad game for Oregon. Another bad game. They
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 1: were a favorite. And you know Oregon, like a lot
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: of these teams, going on the road to these more
• 1:13:30
  Speaker 1: eastern venues, it doesn't work out well for these teams
• 1:13:34
  Speaker 1: that are former Pac-12 teams or whatever, now in the
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: Big Ten. They don't do well going east here, and
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: that's been the case with Oregon. They lost at Oklahoma State.
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: They lost at Illinois. They did win at USC, but
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: that was them staying on the Pacific Coast, and that
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: was still with Dante Moore, their quarterback. But still, they're
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 1: going to be at home for this one, which is better.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: They're coming off an embarrassing loss that was misleading as
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: well as a big favorite. Yeah, I like Oregon in
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: this one. That's how I would play it if I
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: was going to play it. The money seems to agree.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: 68% of the tickets are on Northwestern, so Northwestern looks
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 1: like they're a dreaded public underdog in this one. 58%
• 1:14:11
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Oregon. So the money is saying Oregon,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: they're three and a half point favor, which I think
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: is actually kind of cheap. Um, you know, if, if
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: this game was at the start of the season, Oregon
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 1: would be probably a touchdown favorite here. So yeah, I mean,
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: obviously we have to adjust. We know Northwestern's like at
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: least better than we thought there would be Oregon's worse
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: than we thought there would be an Oregon is without
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: their quarterback now. But all that being said, I would
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: play Oregon if I was going to play this one. Um,
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: Total's not that high, but you're only asking him to
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: lay three and a half, so that's not really that
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 1: big of a deal. All right. What else we got here?
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 1: Let me see. I'm seeing if I'm halfway through the
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: board here. I'll zoom way, way out. I'm going to
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: squint my eyes here.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 4: Let's see.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: What do we got here? Man, it feels really crazy
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: that we're only halfway through this, but All right, I'll
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 1: take the hydration break. I'll be back, and then next
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: game up is going to be, what is it? I
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: just saw it, too. Oh, God. Kansas and TCU is
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: next up. Yeah, that's a game I'm going to tell
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 1: you already. I have no feel for that game, but
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: I will talk about it coming up shortly.
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: Thank you.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: Kansas to TCU. As I already said, I, yeah, this
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 1: game's on Fox Sports 1 at 3.30 p.m.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 4: Eastern.
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: I got nothing on this game pretty much. Kansas just
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: beat Baylor, which looks a little bit better, seeing what
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: Baylor did tonight. But that was the game that caused
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: Baylor to fire their coach. Now Kansas going to TCU here.
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: Third road game in the last four games. You know,
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's not that easy of a scheduling spot,
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 1: I guess. TCU just lost at home to West Virginia.
• 1:17:59
  Speaker 1: I don't know if maybe they have any potential look
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 1: ahead here because they've ranked Arizona on deck here. Yeah,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: this game, I can't figure it out. Well, TCU was
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: a 10-point favorite against West Virginia, so I guess this
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: is where, yeah, I guess this is going to be
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: the handicap here. I'm going to lean towards TCU here.
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 1: I should have dug into this a little more deeply,
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 1: although I knew I wasn't going to play this game
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: or anything. But TCU dominated West Virginia in this game.
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: They had more than 200 more yards than West Virginia
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: did in this game. Lost the game. They had three turnovers.
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 1: That did not help them, obviously. So now we have
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 1: TCU coming off a misleading loss. They were a 10-point
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. and lost the game outright. So, yeah,
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: TCU is going to be the right side here as
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: far as I'm concerned. I think it is a bounce-back
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: spot for them. They're better than what that looked. Better
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: than that game made them look last week. against West
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: Virginia 64% of the tickets 69% of the cash on
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: TCU they opened about 4.5-5 and they're up to 6.5
• 1:18:57
  Speaker 1: now so some real money looks like it did back
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: TCU I agree with it. You know, at least you
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: can lay less on a touchdown still, although the total's
• 1:19:06
  Speaker 1: not much at 45, 45 and a half, and money
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under pretty strongly. So that would
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: worry me a little bit that, you know, can TCU's
• 1:19:15
  Speaker 1: offense actually get it done there? You know, I'd still
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 1: lean that way, though. I'd lay it with TCU at
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 1: under a touchdown there. You know, even though, again, low total,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 1: you know, makes it a little bit more dicey, but
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: obviously not a play for me, though. Colorado State at
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: Utah State, which is on USA Network. Colorado State, this
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 1: is a bad defense, man. As we keep saying, this
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 1: is a real bad defense for Colorado State. They just
• 1:19:42
  Speaker 1: gave up 49 points last weekend. They still won against
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 1: San Diego State, but I think they caught San Diego
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 1: State in some sort of good spot to catch them.
• 1:19:51
  Speaker 1: I can't remember exactly. San Diego State, I mean, we
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 1: know they've been dealing with, they've had just a crazy
• 1:19:57
  Speaker 1: season with the mumps outbreak there and a bunch of
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 1: injuries and whatever. I'm not going to put much weight
• 1:20:01
  Speaker 1: into Colorado state winning that one. I believe Colorado state
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 1: might've been like a one point dog in that game,
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: but I think maybe what matters a little bit more
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: about the spot is Colorado state looked good and putting
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: up 56 points last week. And next week they got
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 1: to play Boise. So that's a huge game for Colorado
• 1:20:17
  Speaker 1: state next week against Boise. So there is the potential.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: They might kind of look past this game here, maybe,
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: but that went over San Diego state ended a four
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: game losing streak. So sometimes when you do that, um,
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 1: It'll give you some new momentum moving forward. So there
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: is that aspect of this too. And I also don't
• 1:20:35
  Speaker 1: want Utah State here because look at what they did
• 1:20:38
  Speaker 1: in their last game. They lost by three to Texas State.
• 1:20:41
  Speaker 1: This is a crazy low scoring game for Texas State.
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know how. So Utah State's defense must be good,
• 1:20:47
  Speaker 1: I guess, because that Texas State offense usually puts up
• 1:20:49
  Speaker 1: a ton of statistics. And in that game, they did not.
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 1: And neither offense did well in that game. Really crazy game.
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 1: But Utah State was like a two-touchdown underdog in that game,
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. And they almost won. So you know
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: I always talk about them. When a team's a huge
• 1:21:05
  Speaker 1: underdog like that and they come close to winning the game,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of times they will be hung over into
• 1:21:10
  Speaker 1: the next game, almost pulling off that upset against Texas State. Yeah,
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 1: it doesn't look good for either team to me here.
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 1: So what do we do with this game? Honestly, I
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 1: don't know. Both teams are kind of in bad spots.
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: The money is heavily indicating on Utah State, though. We
• 1:21:24
  Speaker 1: have 50-50 on the tickets, 85% of the cash on
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: Utah State. I think the argument for Utah State here
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: would be, Colorado State looked way better than they did
• 1:21:34
  Speaker 1: because they just won and put up 56 points last week.
• 1:21:37
  Speaker 1: Whereas Utah State looked horrible, scoring 17 and a loss.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 1: That would be like the main argument to play Utah
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: State here. That and Utah State's obviously the better defense.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 1: But if you want Utah State now, they opened basically
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: five and now they're already up to seven and a half.
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: You know, maybe you can find a seven because it's
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: seven and a half with reduced juice. I really don't
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: think I'd want to lay more than seven with Utah
• 1:22:00
  Speaker 1: State if I was really going to play this game.
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: You know, the money is definitely indicating on Utah State, though.
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: Strong market read, and I don't really necessarily want to
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: fade that. But Utah State, I just can't get over
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: Utah State coming up that, you know, huge game where
• 1:22:17
  Speaker 1: they almost pulled off the upset. So, I don't know.
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: It's a tough game to call. I think even though
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in on the under, I think maybe
• 1:22:24
  Speaker 1: one of the better ways to play this is to
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: play Utah State's team total over. Because, you know, the
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 1: bad spot might affect their defense a little bit more. uh,
• 1:22:33
  Speaker 1: and again, I know the money's driven this total down.
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 1: It's coming on the under, but Colorado state gives up
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 1: a ton of points to everybody. So Utah state may
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 1: be able to get over their number here, even though
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 1: the full game total here is 61 and a half.
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: That's because Colorado state's defense is that horrific. Uh, you're
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: going to be asking Utah state to, uh, score a
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 1: lot in this game if you really want it. But yeah, um,
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 1: them to go over their team total might make sense
• 1:22:57
  Speaker 1: in that one. Um, but you know, it's probably going
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 1: to be, uh, What does that make their team total?
• 1:23:03
  Speaker 1: I can look it up really fast. Sometimes it doesn't
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 1: quite line up.
• 1:23:07
  Speaker 5: Let me look.
• 1:23:09
  Speaker 1: I think this is the only game where I was
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: going to talk about the team total anyway, but yeah,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 1: it'll take a little bit longer. Their team total is 35.5, basically. So,
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's somewhat reasonable, I would say. So keep
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: that in mind there. I'm going to talk about North
• 1:23:24
  Speaker 1: Dakota State against UTEP, even though this game is not
• 1:23:28
  Speaker 1: really a TV game. It's only on the Mountain West Network.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 1: which people don't get. I think you have to pay
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 1: premium for it or whatever. I just looked at this
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: game and almost put it on my card because North
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Dakota State's coming up a huge game at New Mexico.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: And that was a monster game because North Dakota State
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 1: was basically trying to stay alive in the Mountain West.
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 1: And now that they're behind New Mexico, Wyoming, and UNLV,
• 1:23:50
  Speaker 1: they got two losses now in conference. And those two
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 1: losses were to New Mexico and UNLV. I think that
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 1: might be the dream crusher. for North Dakota State here.
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, it's not completely over for them, but they
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: need those teams to lose, and North Dakota State is
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 1: now missing the tiebreaker against both of those teams. They
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: do have it against Wyoming, because they beat Wyoming, but Wyoming,
• 1:24:12
  Speaker 1: they're not a threat here, man. I think at this point,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: it's either going to be New Mexico or UNLV winning
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 1: this conference, and you remember, I did like New Mexico
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: at the start of the season to win, and that's
• 1:24:22
  Speaker 1: who just won that big game against North Dakota State,
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: but now off of that huge game, The North Dakota
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: State just played. They almost won at New Mexico. Had
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: to play in high elevation. This is North Dakota State's
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: first year in FBS. They were playing really well, but
• 1:24:35
  Speaker 1: they have not been able to beat the best teams
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: that they face. Obviously, UTEP is not one of those.
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: UTEP's terrible. But coming off that game against New Mexico.
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: I would only play UTEP here. I think it's bad
• 1:24:48
  Speaker 1: for North Dakota State here. So I don't like it.
• 1:24:51
  Speaker 1: And I did fade them with Nevada when North Dakota
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: State was in that mega sandwich spot after losing that
• 1:24:56
  Speaker 1: close game to UNLV with New Mexico on deck. We
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 1: caught them in a sandwich, and Nevada barely got the
• 1:25:02
  Speaker 1: job done for us. They covered by the hook, assuming
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: that everybody got the 14.5 with me on that one.
• 1:25:07
  Speaker 1: So it got a little bit dicey there. And my hesitation...
• 1:25:10
  Speaker 1: that I have with that one, even though I still
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: put it on my card, was I don't love these
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 1: teams having to go to North Dakota State. That's the thing.
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 1: North Dakota State kind of got screwed with the scheduling
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 1: because they had to play their two biggest conference games
• 1:25:22
  Speaker 1: both on the road against New Mexico in high elevation
• 1:25:25
  Speaker 1: there and against UNLV. That's not easy for a team
• 1:25:31
  Speaker 1: moving up to FBS for the first time and having
• 1:25:33
  Speaker 1: to go to these unfamiliar venues and your two toughest
• 1:25:35
  Speaker 1: games are both on the road. Yeah, not easy, but
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 1: now it looks like their hopes of winning the conference,
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 1: I think that was their goal because they were considering
• 1:25:44
  Speaker 1: one of the better teams in this conference. I think
• 1:25:45
  Speaker 1: their goal this season was to win the conference, but
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 1: maybe you could argue not. I mean, maybe they could
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 1: have multiple goals, but their other goals are already accomplished.
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 1: They're already bowl eligible. So if that was one of
• 1:25:56
  Speaker 1: their goals this season, well, they already accomplished that seven
• 1:25:59
  Speaker 1: weeks into the season. Basically, they already got their six wins,
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 1: so they're going to be bowl eligible as long as,
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 1: you know, I don't know if there's still a transition
• 1:26:06
  Speaker 1: period thing where they're technically not bowl eligible, but these
• 1:26:09
  Speaker 1: teams always just petition anyway to get into a bowl.
• 1:26:12
  Speaker 1: So if they want to play in a bowl, they'll
• 1:26:14
  Speaker 1: be able to play in a bowl, and I expect
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 1: that that will happen here. So it'll be a big
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 1: deal for them still, but I know I'm rambling. But anyway,
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 1: you look at this. That was a huge game against
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, and that's what they're coming off of. Problem is,
• 1:26:25
  Speaker 1: do I really want to take UTEP going to, because
• 1:26:28
  Speaker 1: they're now going to an unfamiliar venue, going to North
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: Dakota State, a team that was in FCS for a while,
• 1:26:34
  Speaker 1: UTEP has been an absolute nightmare pretty much. They have
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 1: no FBS wins this year. They got obliterated by New Mexico,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 1: by the way, 61-7 in New Mexico, although the public
• 1:26:46
  Speaker 1: might look at that and draw the wrong conclusions from
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 1: it and think, oh, you know, if they got totally
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 1: destroyed by New Mexico and North Dakota State almost beat
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 1: New Mexico, then of course North Dakota State's going to
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 1: kill UTEP here. But yeah, obviously we all know North
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 1: Dakota State's the better team here. I'm not saying they're not.
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 1: Obviously they are. They're going to be a huge favorite here.
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 1: UTEP did play at Michigan. Let's not really talk about
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 1: that anymore because Michigan somehow covered in that game after
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 1: a terrible first half. We lost on the show with
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 1: that one, but UTEP did also play Oklahoma, so they
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 1: did play a couple of difficult opponents here, but they
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 1: haven't been good on the road at all. Their games
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 1: on the road, they lost 51-0, 52-17, and 61-7, but
• 1:27:23
  Speaker 1: that 61-7 was that in-conference game against New Mexico, so
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 1: that is pretty glaring. Since then, they've played a little
• 1:27:33
  Speaker 1: bit better. I mean, at least they were somewhat competitive
• 1:27:35
  Speaker 1: against San Jose State last week. I mean, I consider
• 1:27:39
  Speaker 1: putting this on my card. I'm not going to do it,
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 1: but I like UTEP in this one plus the points
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 1: if you're going to do it. The money is agreeing
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 1: with that. North Dakota State, 78% of the tickets on them,
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 1: 73% of the cash on UTEP. And the number here
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 1: is 24.5. It's down from 26.5, but if you're going
• 1:27:56
  Speaker 1: to take UTEP, 24.5, that's, you know, you're on the
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 1: right side of the key number of 24 at least.
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 1: And the total in this game is like 43.
• 1:28:03
  Speaker 3: So.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 1: You know, obviously taking 24 and a half points in
• 1:28:09
  Speaker 1: a game where the total is 43. I mean, that's insane.
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 1: The spread is more than half of the total. Like
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 1: that's a game where I definitely look towards playing the
• 1:28:18
  Speaker 1: underdog because every one of those points is worth more
• 1:28:20
  Speaker 1: and you're getting a ton of them. So this one
• 1:28:23
  Speaker 1: really close to making the cut for me because I'm
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 1: worried that that was the dream crusher for North Dakota
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 1: State on top of, it being a huge game for
• 1:28:31
  Speaker 1: them where they fell just short. So yeah, I would
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 1: take the points with UTEP in this one. This one
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 1: really close to making the cup for me as well. Yeah.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: All right. We have FIU at Liberty on CBS Sports
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: here at 3.30 as well. FIU coming off a bad
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: loss at home against Middle Tennessee where FIU was a,
• 1:28:51
  Speaker 1: they were like, I think they were a double-digit underdog
• 1:28:53
  Speaker 1: in that game. And FIU went into a bye after
• 1:28:55
  Speaker 1: that basically because they played on Tuesday the 20th and
• 1:28:57
  Speaker 1: they haven't played since then. So I guess, I don't
• 1:29:01
  Speaker 1: know if that constitutes a buy or not, but they've
• 1:29:04
  Speaker 1: had a lot of time off. They've had 10 days off.
• 1:29:06
  Speaker 1: So having extra time off of a bad loss is
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 1: a favorite. I think this sets up pretty nicely, actually,
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 1: for FIU to bounce back here. Liberty has less time off,
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 1: and they just wanted a blowout against Kennesaw State, where
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 1: they look pretty good there. Kennesaw put up a nice
• 1:29:22
  Speaker 1: performance against Middle Tennessee. or not yesterday, wait, was it yesterday,
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 1: two days ago, whatever it was. So that win looks
• 1:29:29
  Speaker 1: a little bit better, but that was Thursday. So Liberty
• 1:29:32
  Speaker 1: only has like eight days off here. They're coming off
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 1: a blowout win, whereas FIU's coming off a, and I
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 1: know it wasn't a great win really over Kennesaw, but
• 1:29:40
  Speaker 1: still a blowout win, two blowout wins in a row. FIU,
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 1: bad loss is a favorite. I think the only way
• 1:29:47
  Speaker 1: to play this game is to take the points with
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 1: Florida International in this one, not Florida, Illinois. Florida International,
• 1:29:53
  Speaker 1: 60% of the tickets and 76% of the cash are
• 1:29:56
  Speaker 1: on Liberty, though. But, yeah, the only way I would
• 1:29:59
  Speaker 1: play this is taking the points with FIU. FIU has
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 1: a good defense, too, and that's what you want. You
• 1:30:03
  Speaker 1: want a good defense getting points. You're getting two touchdowns here, basically.
• 1:30:07
  Speaker 1: If you're going to take FIU, get the 14 here.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: You know, get at least on that key number of 14.
• 1:30:13
  Speaker 1: It looks like it is available at some places here.
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 1: The total's 45.5, basically, so it's a low total again
• 1:30:19
  Speaker 1: here as well. FIU, they play... bunch of lower scoring
• 1:30:23
  Speaker 1: games as well because they play good defense and their
• 1:30:25
  Speaker 1: offense is pretty questionable but that's what you want in
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: a game like this as a big underdog you want
• 1:30:31
  Speaker 1: the spot to line up you want your underdog to
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 1: be a good defensive team that's what you get here
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 1: low total so every point is worth more so yeah
• 1:30:39
  Speaker 1: Florida International I think is the right side in that
• 1:30:41
  Speaker 1: one plus the points All right, let's keep it going here.
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 1: ESPN at 345 Eastern, number six, Utah. A little bit
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 1: of a weird travel spot, having to go to Cincinnati here. Now,
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 1: Utah's coming up with a nice win over Houston. Now,
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 1: they did cover, but this looks very sandwichy for Utah here.
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 1: Nice win over Houston. That was a big win because
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 1: Houston was one of the teams that was a threat
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 1: in the Big 12. That was a one-point game late,
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 1: and Utah put in a late touchdown to cover the
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 1: spread and whatever. Physical game, Utah and Houston both play
• 1:31:12
  Speaker 1: physical defensively and whatever. That was a big win. And
• 1:31:15
  Speaker 1: as I already mentioned earlier in the show, you know
• 1:31:16
  Speaker 1: who Utah has next. They play BYU in the Holy
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 1: War next, which is one of their biggest games. Huge
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 1: rivalry game, and it will have implications as far as
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 1: who wins this conference and therefore who gets to the playoff.
• 1:31:29
  Speaker 1: That is a monster game. And then they have Arizona
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 1: up after that too, who is also in the mix
• 1:31:35
  Speaker 1: for this conference here. So this is a horrible spot
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: for Utah. And having to travel to Cincinnati here, a
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 1: little bit of a weird road travel spot here. For
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: Utah on the road, they haven't exactly been, they haven't
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 1: been totally lights out. I mean, they won by 14
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 1: against a down Iowa State team on the road, and
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 1: they almost lost at Colorado. So their road resume is
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 1: not very good here. Going to Cincinnati, kind of a
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 1: weird venue because Cincinnati hasn't been in this conference that long.
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 1: My problem with it is, I like Cincinnati in this game.
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 1: That's a horrible spot for Utah. The problem is, do
• 1:32:06
  Speaker 1: I really want Cincinnati after they just pulled off a
• 1:32:08
  Speaker 1: big upset last week? They just beat Texas Tech. I
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: think Cincinnati was like a double-digit dog in that game,
• 1:32:14
  Speaker 1: and they pulled off a huge upset themselves there against
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech. I'm not going to do it. I'm going
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: to lean Cincinnati here because I think the spot is
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 1: a little bit worse for Utah. I think Cincinnati could
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 1: catch them here maybe and still get up for this game,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 1: but I don't want them off the upset of Texas Tech,
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: so I will stay off of it. So I'm not
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: going to be fading either team looking ahead to the
• 1:32:34
  Speaker 1: Holy War here. I thought I might. But Utah's got
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 1: 61% of the tickets, 60% of the cash, so they're
• 1:32:40
  Speaker 1: the public side with a little bit less of the
• 1:32:42
  Speaker 1: money on them. They're a 7-point favorite here. You might
• 1:32:45
  Speaker 1: be able to find a 7.5 if you do like Cincinnati.
• 1:32:48
  Speaker 1: Obviously get at least 7 on it. Total's not that low, though, 56.5.
• 1:32:52
  Speaker 1: Utah is the better defense here, but they're laying points
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 1: on the road in a tough spot. So, yeah, I'll
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 1: slightly lean towards Cincinnati there. And I think it is
• 1:33:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit telling that the line... Hasn't really moved
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 1: off of that seven, even though Utah's getting the public
• 1:33:07
  Speaker 1: money here. So the oddsmakers haven't moved it, which kind
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: of tells you that that basically kind of means the
• 1:33:14
  Speaker 1: professional money is holding this line in check pretty much,
• 1:33:17
  Speaker 1: or the oddsmakers just don't give a shit and they're
• 1:33:19
  Speaker 1: taking a stand here or whatever, and they're okay with
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 1: taking all this money. all these tickets on Utah, you know.
• 1:33:25
  Speaker 1: So I'll leave towards Cincinnati, but I don't like the
• 1:33:28
  Speaker 1: spot either team is in there. ESPN 2, 3.45 p.m. Eastern.
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 1: This is ridiculous. Virginia at number 14, Wake Forest, and
• 1:33:36
  Speaker 1: Wake Forest is all of a sudden laying double digits
• 1:33:40
  Speaker 1: to Virginia. You got to be kidding me. You have
• 1:33:43
  Speaker 1: to be kidding me, man. just come on no no
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: this is not a play for me or anything like
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 1: that but have these teams flipped that much from what
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 1: they were last year to the point where virginia should
• 1:33:56
  Speaker 1: be a double digit underdog here against wake is wake
• 1:34:00
  Speaker 1: really the 14th best team in the country there's no
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 1: way i know they're playing well they got geo lopez
• 1:34:05
  Speaker 1: there um I think that's Garrett's guy.
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 1:34:09
  Speaker 1: He likes the North Carolina teams. I think he mostly
• 1:34:11
  Speaker 1: likes UNC, though, but maybe he's okay with Wake because
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 1: they're always the little brother there. Gio Lopez, former quarterback
• 1:34:17
  Speaker 1: for South Alabama, and then I think he was on
• 1:34:20
  Speaker 1: UNC for a little while under Bill Belichick, but he's
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 1: doing well with Wake this year. There's no doubt about that.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 1: Wake's been putting up some offensive numbers here, but they've
• 1:34:29
  Speaker 1: had a pretty weak schedule. Now, they did play their
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 1: two toughest games. They played well. They played well at
• 1:34:35
  Speaker 1: home against Miami, and they played well. I mean, they
• 1:34:38
  Speaker 1: won on the road against Louisville, so those are good results,
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: but the rest of their resume is very soft. The
• 1:34:44
  Speaker 1: rest of their wins are against very weak teams. Now,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: Wake did just go out to the West Coast, and
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 1: they blasted Cal, but that was, I believe, two weeks ago. Yeah,
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 1: so that's another problem for Wake here. If you want
• 1:34:56
  Speaker 1: anything to do with Wake here... they might not be
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 1: awake because they might be having a wake here. Now,
• 1:35:03
  Speaker 1: I don't know if they're really going to lose outright
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 1: or anything, but they went into a bye last week
• 1:35:07
  Speaker 1: on a four-game win streak. And now, while the bye,
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 1: I guess, could help them, you know, because they were
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 1: going to have to travel back from the Pacific Coast here,
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 1: I still don't think it's a good bye scenario when
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 1: you go into a bye on a win streak. I
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 1: think it disrupts your momentum. So I think this is
• 1:35:20
  Speaker 1: a negative for Wake Forest. I don't think it's a good...
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 1: spot to have a bye, and they've looked really good
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 1: blowing out their last three opponents, although they're all weak opponents.
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to definitely be leaning towards Virginia in
• 1:35:32
  Speaker 1: this one. Virginia just lost to Duke in their last game,
• 1:35:36
  Speaker 1: and they played on Friday, so Virginia's not coming off
• 1:35:39
  Speaker 1: a bye. One extra day off for them. They lost
• 1:35:42
  Speaker 1: their last two games in a row, and yes, Virginia's
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 1: not stepped up that well in class. They've lost, in fact,
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 1: all the big games they've played, they've lost. That's not
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 1: a good sign. Against West Virginia... In like a weird
• 1:35:53
  Speaker 1: neutral site game. Against Florida State on the road. SMU
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 1: on the road. They were actually okay in the SMU game.
• 1:35:58
  Speaker 1: They only lost by 10. And then last week they
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 1: were competitive against Duke. But that was a big game
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 1: for Virginia. So that's kind of the issue I have
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 1: with Virginia here. Is they probably wanted that game. Because
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 1: Duke beat them in the ACC title game last year.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 1: Even though neither team got into the playoff. Because their
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 1: resumes were still not good. And Miami got in. But
• 1:36:18
  Speaker 1: I think Virginia still wanted that game. Wanted revenge.
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: So.
• 1:36:22
  Speaker 1: They could be a little bit hungover off of that,
• 1:36:23
  Speaker 1: but I think the spot for Wake Forest is worse,
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 1: and I just don't buy Wake being ranked as high
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 1: as they are right now. I think they're overvalued. When
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 1: I saw this line, I was pretty shocked, and they
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 1: actually opened 14. So some money has definitely come in
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: on the Virginia side. 72% of the tickets are on Wake,
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: 73% of the cash. They're clearly a public side here,
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 1: and yes, I would fade the public in this one.
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: I would take Virginia. plus the points, the total's low,
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 1: the money's coming on the under, it's a 48 and
• 1:36:50
  Speaker 1: a half total, so that means it's easier to take
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 1: the points, you know, each point is going to be
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: worth more here, you can't get the 14 anymore though,
• 1:36:59
  Speaker 1: you know, at open 14, you're going to be looking
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: at about 12 and a half, 13 now, um, That's
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: still the way I would lean, though. I still think
• 1:37:05
  Speaker 1: this line is way out of control. Wake out of control, maybe.
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 1: I still think that line is just crazy high, given
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: who these teams are. So, yeah, I would still take
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: the points, although I can't get the 14 anymore. Not
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: one on my card or anything like that, but that
• 1:37:21
  Speaker 1: was like the... Like, what the hell line of the week, basically.
• 1:37:24
  Speaker 1: You know what I mean? Like, what is going on? Although,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 1: when your reaction is that, usually you should listen to
• 1:37:28
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers, though. That's the thing. Although, in that case,
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to. I'm going to lean to Virginia.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 1: But I think Wake's just way overrated. But when you
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 1: see a line that's like, that just looks way crazy
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: like that, a lot of times you want to listen
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 1: to what the oddsmakers are telling you. Because if they're
• 1:37:43
  Speaker 1: telling you, like, the oddsmakers are going to be right
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: more than you are. You know what I mean? Like,
• 1:37:47
  Speaker 1: they have all this money. I know we're putting money
• 1:37:50
  Speaker 1: on this betting-wise, but the oddsmakers have billions at stake
• 1:37:53
  Speaker 1: you know on these numbers and they're not they're not
• 1:37:54
  Speaker 1: trying to predict the outcome they're trying to split the
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: action but still they know more than you and if
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: they're saying you know that wake is that much better
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: than virginia yeah i mean i i would say yeah
• 1:38:06
  Speaker 1: you got to listen to them a little bit but
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 1: yeah in that case i still like the spot better
• 1:38:11
  Speaker 1: better for virginia i still believe that line is actually
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 1: too high so there you go with that one And
• 1:38:16
  Speaker 1: then just to quickly mention, New Mexico is going to
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 1: San Jose State here. Not a TV game. It's on
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 1: the Mountain West. I'm just mentioning it because New Mexico
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 1: is coming up with that big win over North Dakota State,
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 1: so it's possible they're in a little bit of a letdown.
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe they get caught here at San Jose State. State
• 1:38:31
  Speaker 1: they don't have a big game on deck though they're
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: only playing Nevada next and they're not that good if
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: they had UNLV coming up next This would be a
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: sandwich spot, and I'd be more strongly considering San Jose
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 1: State here. San Jose State's coming off kind of an
• 1:38:43
  Speaker 1: ugly loss at Nevada. Not a good Nevada team either. So, yeah,
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 1: that game I would only lean towards San Jose State
• 1:38:50
  Speaker 1: just as a quick pick. opinion on that one. New
• 1:38:53
  Speaker 1: Mexico is getting all the money, though. 60% of the
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 1: tickets and 93% of the cash on them, but I
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 1: do not agree with that one. They're laying over two touchdowns, 14.5,
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 1: which does make it look more difficult to play New
• 1:39:05
  Speaker 1: Mexico there, but I just think it's a pure letdown
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 1: spot for them. And the total is low, 42.5, so... Yeah,
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, taking the points, two touchdowns with a low
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 1: total like that, you know, I'm always going to be
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: kind of eyeing that at the very least. All right,
• 1:39:20
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Network, 4.15 p.m. Eastern. Nevada is at number seven, UCLA. Now, Nevada,
• 1:39:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, they play in the Pacific time zone anyway,
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 1: I'm pretty sure. They're coming off that win over San
• 1:39:32
  Speaker 1: Jose State, which is whatever. You know they're going to
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 1: get up for this. Big game. They get to still
• 1:39:37
  Speaker 1: play on the Pacific Coast. This is like the biggest
• 1:39:39
  Speaker 1: game on their schedule as far as, oh, we get
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: to play UCLA, who's undefeated and ranked 7th in the
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: country and a big conference team. So I expect Nevada
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: to get up for this, whereas UCLA might look right
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: past them. UCLA's 7-0, and they look like they're Their
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: program is on the right trajectory, obviously, with Chesney there
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 1: coming over from James Madison. But they've faced a fairly
• 1:40:02
  Speaker 1: easy schedule, man. They have that one good win, basically,
• 1:40:06
  Speaker 1: at Oregon. Oregon hasn't been playing that well. And other
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 1: than that, they've faced a very soft schedule. I mean,
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 1: they beat Wisconsin, yeah, who is now ranked. But Wisconsin
• 1:40:14
  Speaker 1: having to travel out west. Even though I liked Wisconsin
• 1:40:18
  Speaker 1: in that game, it wasn't exactly the easiest spot for them,
• 1:40:20
  Speaker 1: which is why I stayed off of it. So this
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 1: UCLA team, not totally battle-tested here. They're coming off a
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 1: win over Michigan State. They got Minnesota up next. I'm
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 1: not going to say those are big games, but... They
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 1: may overlook Nevada here. I mean, they have this game
• 1:40:33
  Speaker 1: at least sandwiched in between two conference games in the
• 1:40:36
  Speaker 1: Big Ten, so this game isn't going to matter as
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 1: much to them. So I would lean towards taking the
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 1: points with Nevada here. It's a low total. It's 43.5,
• 1:40:43
  Speaker 1: and you're going to take more than three touchdowns with
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 1: Nevada if you want this. And I understand UCLA's defense
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 1: is good, but you're going to need their offense to
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 1: do something to win by 22.5 here, which is the
• 1:40:55
  Speaker 1: number here. And I'm just not sure they're going to
• 1:40:57
  Speaker 1: be that motivated to do that. I'm not sure that
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 1: their offense is... capable enough to really do that and
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 1: again really low total 43 and a half and the
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 1: spread is more than half the total in this game
• 1:41:08
  Speaker 1: too so yeah i would take the points with nevada
• 1:41:11
  Speaker 1: if i was going to do this 80 80 of
• 1:41:13
  Speaker 1: the tickets is 66 of the cash in ucla so
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 1: the money is agreeing with nevada they're fading the public
• 1:41:19
  Speaker 1: ucla side there again it's 22 and a half with
• 1:41:22
  Speaker 1: a really low total so getting all those points when
• 1:41:25
  Speaker 1: they're worth more yeah that's the way i would lean
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 1: there All right, we got South Carolina at Oklahoma on
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 1: the SEC network here at, what is this, 415 Eastern.
• 1:41:38
  Speaker 1: South Carolina could be in a letdown spot, man. They're
• 1:41:40
  Speaker 1: coming off three huge performances in a row, really four
• 1:41:43
  Speaker 1: big games in a row, but I do think they
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 1: had a bye in there somewhere. But after losing to
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 1: Kentucky by only one, they upset Florida on the road.
• 1:41:52
  Speaker 1: And then I think they had a bye after that,
• 1:41:53
  Speaker 1: and then last week they had another huge win over Tennessee,
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 1: not an upset, even though all the talking heads call
• 1:41:58
  Speaker 1: it an upset, which I hate when they do that,
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 1: because as you know, if you watch my show, I
• 1:42:02
  Speaker 1: like South Carolina in that game. It was in my
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 1: contest entry, and they barely covered the two and a
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 1: half that we had in the contest. One by three,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 1: but like I said, they were actually a favorite in
• 1:42:14
  Speaker 1: the game, so that's why I hate the talking heads
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 1: calling it an upset when it wasn't, because South Carolina
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 1: was actually a favorite. But that was a huge win
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 1: for South Carolina, beating Tennessee. So this does look like
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 1: it could be a letdown spot for them here. Having
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 1: to go play in Norman, Oklahoma, which is as far
• 1:42:29
  Speaker 1: west as they will have gone this entire season. A
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 1: little bit of a weird spot for them. I think
• 1:42:33
  Speaker 1: this Oklahoma team's a little bit under the radar right now.
• 1:42:36
  Speaker 1: Really good defense, although their offense hasn't been that good.
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 1: But their defense, you know, keeping them in games here.
• 1:42:41
  Speaker 1: And they had a nice win last week against Mississippi State,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: who I did kind of expect to fall off a
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 1: little bit after they were really hot at the beginning
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: of the season. Mississippi State, yeah, I mean, they're improving,
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: but they're not as good as people thought they were
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 1: early in the season. But nice win for Oklahoma on
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 1: the road. I think the main problem for Oklahoma is
• 1:43:00
  Speaker 1: they got some big games on deck against Florida, Ole Miss, whatever. So,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean, this could, I guess, be a
• 1:43:08
  Speaker 1: spot where maybe they look past South Carolina a little bit.
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 1: But I'm going to lean towards Oklahoma in this one.
• 1:43:13
  Speaker 1: I think it's a pure letdown spot for South Carolina
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 1: off of that big win. Over Tennessee, that was a
• 1:43:19
  Speaker 1: huge win. Over a ranked team. And the money seems
• 1:43:23
  Speaker 1: to agree with me on this. 56% of the tickets,
• 1:43:25
  Speaker 1: 51% of the cash was South Carolina. So they were
• 1:43:28
  Speaker 1: a public side, and they were a dreaded public underdog
• 1:43:31
  Speaker 1: in this one. So again, I always say how that's
• 1:43:34
  Speaker 1: a red flag. When you have the public wanting an underdog,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 1: the public doesn't even want the team that's supposed to
• 1:43:40
  Speaker 1: be the team that wins the game here. Red flag,
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: big time. You get to fade the public with the
• 1:43:45
  Speaker 1: better team here. So yeah, I would... lean that way
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: as well. I would lean towards Oklahoma in this one.
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: They opened four, and they're down to about three, three
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: and a half here. I actually don't know if you're
• 1:43:55
  Speaker 1: going to be able to get a three on this.
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: Total's fairly low at 44, 44 and a half, but
• 1:43:59
  Speaker 1: three and a half isn't really that big of a
• 1:44:00
  Speaker 1: number to lay. But yes, I would lean towards laying
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 1: it with Oklahoma in this one and going against the public.
• 1:44:06
  Speaker 1: And The public's, you know, going to look at this.
• 1:44:08
  Speaker 1: They don't like the fact that Oklahoma's offense is bad,
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: so they're not going to want to lay points with them.
• 1:44:12
  Speaker 1: And these teams have a similar record. South Carolina looked
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: good beating Tennessee last week, so they're going to be, oh,
• 1:44:17
  Speaker 1: I get to take the points of South Carolina. Oh,
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 1: all right. That looks, you know, fairly tempting, I suppose. So,
• 1:44:26
  Speaker 1: you know, the public eye, but not to me. I
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 1: look the other way. I would lean towards laying it
• 1:44:30
  Speaker 1: with Oklahoma.
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Network, 4.15 p.m. Eastern as well before we
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 1: finally get to the evening games here. Love it when
• 1:44:38
  Speaker 1: we get to the evening because my back's starting to hurt.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 1: I'm like, oh, God. And then we're finally almost done.
• 1:44:43
  Speaker 1: Purdue and Penn State, this is a hideous game. Penn State,
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 1: in the Matt Campbell era, you know, it has not
• 1:44:48
  Speaker 1: gone well for them, even though they face an easy schedule. Purdue,
• 1:44:53
  Speaker 1: I believe they just had a bye. They lost to Washington. And,
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 1: you know, Purdue was coming off a nice win over
• 1:44:59
  Speaker 1: Minnesota before that. Had a quick turnaround time. Got caught
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: by Washington, who I think was coming off an ugly
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 1: loss to Iowa in prime time. So I leaned towards
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 1: Washington in that one. I got that one correct. Don't
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 1: think I had it, you know, as a play that
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 1: I gave out or anything like that. Yeah, now Purdue
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 1: is coming out of a bye, and they went into
• 1:45:18
  Speaker 1: the bye on a bad note, losing at home to Washington.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 1: So I think they're going to use that bye to
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: bounce back. That would be my opinion. I think this
• 1:45:24
  Speaker 1: could be a bounce-back spot for Purdue, even though they
• 1:45:27
  Speaker 1: do have to go into Happy Valley here. It is
• 1:45:29
  Speaker 1: not happy times for Penn State as they're below. 500 here.
• 1:45:34
  Speaker 1: Penn State also is coming out of a bye, and
• 1:45:36
  Speaker 1: they went into the bye on a four-game losing streak.
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 1: So I do talk about how the bye can disrupt
• 1:45:40
  Speaker 1: your losing momentum, and you might turn it around and
• 1:45:43
  Speaker 1: play better here.
• 1:45:44
  Speaker 5: But.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 1: I think I would prefer Purdue here because Penn State
• 1:45:48
  Speaker 1: went into that bye on two big games against USC
• 1:45:51
  Speaker 1: and Michigan. And while that bye can maybe help them
• 1:45:54
  Speaker 1: get over that, they played tough against both teams, almost
• 1:45:56
  Speaker 1: won both games, fell just short in both games against
• 1:46:00
  Speaker 1: those big teams. I don't know, man. They might have
• 1:46:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover through this bye here. And this Penn State team,
• 1:46:06
  Speaker 1: I mean, their resume, yeah, really unimpressive at this point.
• 1:46:09
  Speaker 1: Their wins are against Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo. This is really...
• 1:46:13
  Speaker 1: looking like deja vu for Penn State. Another season where
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 1: they had high hopes they were supposed to be good again,
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 1: and as soon as they started playing better competition, that's it.
• 1:46:23
  Speaker 1: They just start losing every game. You know what I mean? Yeah,
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: I don't like it. Penn State is the better team still.
• 1:46:29
  Speaker 1: They're obviously going to be laying points here. Purdue's not
• 1:46:32
  Speaker 1: that good of a team, but I would only take
• 1:46:34
  Speaker 1: the points with Purdue if I was going to play
• 1:46:36
  Speaker 1: this one. The money doesn't agree. 54% of the tickets
• 1:46:39
  Speaker 1: on Purdue, 56% of the cash on Penn State, but yeah,
• 1:46:42
  Speaker 1: I would take the points with Purdue. I don't know
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: what's going on with this line opening at 7.5 on
• 1:46:47
  Speaker 1: Penn State, and now it's 10, 10.5, but based on
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: my situational read, I'd lean towards taking the points with Purdue.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 1: Totals in the mid-range, in the mid-50s, so it's not
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 1: exactly low as far as making it more advantageous to
• 1:47:02
  Speaker 1: take the underdog there, but I still would lean towards
• 1:47:04
  Speaker 1: the underdog there. Next game up, oh, I have another
• 1:47:06
  Speaker 1: play that's not a televised game, and it's a weird 6.30 p.m.
• 1:47:09
  Speaker 1: start time. I think this is the last play I'm
• 1:47:11
  Speaker 1: giving out on the show here. Yeah, let's do it, man.
• 1:47:15
  Speaker 1: We're digging deep into some of these lower conference matchups here.
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 4: You wanna know what I'm betting?
• 1:47:25
  Speaker 1: And this one, yeah, we're going to have a favorite here.
• 1:47:27
  Speaker 1: You know, we had all favorites tonight and swept the board,
• 1:47:29
  Speaker 1: so we'll have another favorite here in this one, finally,
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 1: after I gave out a bunch of underdogs. We're going
• 1:47:35
  Speaker 1: to lay 5.5 with Georgia Southern here against App State.
• 1:47:38
  Speaker 1: And just first look at this. Why would Georgia Southern
• 1:47:41
  Speaker 1: be laying 5.5 here when they're 3-4, even though App
• 1:47:45
  Speaker 1: State is 5-2, right? So that's going to catch your
• 1:47:48
  Speaker 1: eye right away. The public's going to see the records,
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 1: and they're not going to want to... They're probably not
• 1:47:52
  Speaker 1: going to be on this game at all, but... They're
• 1:47:54
  Speaker 1: not going to be laying points with the team with
• 1:47:56
  Speaker 1: the lesser record. That should jump out at you right away. Like,
• 1:47:59
  Speaker 1: why is the team with the lesser record laying points here, right? Well,
• 1:48:03
  Speaker 1: the odds makers are telling you Georgia Southern is actually
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 1: the better of these two teams. And if you look
• 1:48:07
  Speaker 1: at their resume, yeah, I mean, they played Clemson on
• 1:48:10
  Speaker 1: the road. They actually played them fairly tough on the road.
• 1:48:13
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern's defense actually played fairly well. They played pretty
• 1:48:17
  Speaker 1: well against Houston, and we actually had a win on
• 1:48:19
  Speaker 1: the show. in that game. Georgia Southern covered against Houston.
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 1: Houston was in kind of a bad spot there, I think,
• 1:48:24
  Speaker 1: off of almost beating Texas Tech. So Georgia Southern was
• 1:48:28
  Speaker 1: kind to us in that one. And then Georgia Southern
• 1:48:30
  Speaker 1: had another game where they played really well, only losing
• 1:48:33
  Speaker 1: to James Madison by three. And I know JMU has
• 1:48:36
  Speaker 1: lost a couple of games now, but that was still
• 1:48:37
  Speaker 1: a really good performance out of Georgia Southern there. And
• 1:48:40
  Speaker 1: now they're coming off an easy win in their last
• 1:48:43
  Speaker 1: game against Old Dominion. So I think this sets up
• 1:48:45
  Speaker 1: pretty well for what I think is an underrated Georgia
• 1:48:48
  Speaker 1: Southern team here. And they also play Jacksonville State on
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: the road, and they're not a bad team in the
• 1:48:52
  Speaker 1: Conference USA. So Georgia Southern, you know, you look at
• 1:48:56
  Speaker 1: their conference record now, they're 2-1 in conference, and their
• 1:48:59
  Speaker 1: only loss is a three-point loss to James Madison. And
• 1:49:02
  Speaker 1: for the most part, their schedule's been pretty difficult. So
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 1: I do like Georgia Southern here. And the more important
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 1: thing is this is a horrible spot for App State. Although,
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: hang on, let me make sure that Georgia Southern doesn't
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: have a bye or anything like that. Hold on. They might, actually.
• 1:49:17
  Speaker 1: Let me see. They do, actually. So Georgia Southern does
• 1:49:20
  Speaker 1: have a bye here. They went into the bye on,
• 1:49:23
  Speaker 1: you know, a good note, beating Old Dominion. But was
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: that really that good of a note? I mean, beating
• 1:49:28
  Speaker 1: Old Dominion, not a big deal. Old Dominion is crap.
• 1:49:32
  Speaker 1: Georgia Southern was only favored by three, and they covered. But,
• 1:49:35
  Speaker 1: you know, they... They had a losing record going into
• 1:49:39
  Speaker 1: the bye, so I don't think the bye is really
• 1:49:41
  Speaker 1: going to hurt them that much. It's not like it's
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: going to stop a win streak for them or anything.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: So I think it's okay. They're going to have extra
• 1:49:47
  Speaker 1: rest here. But I think that might help them a
• 1:49:49
  Speaker 1: little bit more because the spot for App State is
• 1:49:51
  Speaker 1: awful here. I mentioned James Madison. Yeah, well, App State
• 1:49:55
  Speaker 1: just beat James Madison in overtime, dealing James Madison their
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: first loss before James Madison had what I thought was
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: a hangover last night and lost to Troy as well.
• 1:50:05
  Speaker 1: Didn't expect them to lose, but I thought Troy would cover.
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: But still, App State, that was a huge win for them, man.
• 1:50:11
  Speaker 1: Beating James Madison in primetime. at home, in overtime, massive win.
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: And now they have less time off than Georgia Southern does,
• 1:50:18
  Speaker 1: even though, yeah, they have a little bit of extra
• 1:50:20
  Speaker 1: time off. But I just think this is going to
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 1: be a huge flat spot for them, man. off that
• 1:50:24
  Speaker 1: big win. The records are a little bit misleading, and
• 1:50:27
  Speaker 1: App State has not faced a difficult schedule, man. You
• 1:50:30
  Speaker 1: saw what Georgia Southern has played. Well, App State has
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 1: played East Carolina, Charlotte, and only beat them by five
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 1: at home. That Charlotte team's bad. The best team they
• 1:50:40
  Speaker 1: played was NC State, and yeah, they only lost by 10.
• 1:50:43
  Speaker 1: It was a good performance, but App State always gets up.
• 1:50:45
  Speaker 1: And we saw NC State was bad enough, they fired
• 1:50:48
  Speaker 1: their coach, so how good of a performance is that really?
• 1:50:51
  Speaker 1: And App State always gets up for that game because
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 1: they're an in-state little brother against NC State. App State
• 1:50:57
  Speaker 1: lost to Old Dominion, although I don't like that transitive
• 1:51:00
  Speaker 1: type of handicapping, but still, that's a horrible result. yeah
• 1:51:06
  Speaker 1: I just think Georgia Southern is indeed the better team
• 1:51:08
  Speaker 1: I think this is a major letdown spot for App
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: State like as soon as they went into overtime against
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 1: James Madison or even blew that late lead in regulation
• 1:51:16
  Speaker 1: against James Madison I was looking like who's App State
• 1:51:18
  Speaker 1: playing next do we want to play this game the
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 1: answer is yes we're going to do it Georgia Southern
• 1:51:23
  Speaker 1: is the better team even though the records make it
• 1:51:25
  Speaker 1: look otherwise um Georgia Southern's getting the money. They got
• 1:51:31
  Speaker 1: 57% of the tickets. I don't think the public's really
• 1:51:33
  Speaker 1: coming in on this game at all, but the real
• 1:51:35
  Speaker 1: money is on that side, 86% of the cash. They
• 1:51:38
  Speaker 1: open about four and a half, five. The number's still
• 1:51:40
  Speaker 1: in that range, five, five and a half, and the
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 1: total's not that low in the mid to high 50s,
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 1: so that makes it a little bit easier for the
• 1:51:46
  Speaker 1: favorite to get the job done. Let's do it. Georgia
• 1:51:50
  Speaker 1: Southern minus the points. All right, and that's my last
• 1:51:54
  Speaker 1: play I'm going to give out here, but I'm going
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: to talk about the remaining games that are TV games
• 1:51:57
  Speaker 1: as well. And unfortunately, it's most of the remaining games here,
• 1:52:01
  Speaker 1: if not all of them. So this is going to
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: take a while. All right. Number 24, Oklahoma State at
• 1:52:08
  Speaker 1: Iowa State on Fox. It's 7 p.m.
• 1:52:10
  Speaker 4: Here.
• 1:52:11
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State just blasted Colorado, which I said, you know,
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 1: Colorado was hanging around in that game. But statistically, Oklahoma
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 1: State destroyed them. So the final score wasn't really misleading.
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 1: Now Oklahoma State's coming off of that. They look pretty
• 1:52:24
  Speaker 1: good in that one. Anytime a team looks that good,
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: I don't really want to play on them in the
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: next game. Oklahoma State, they've played three games on the road,
• 1:52:33
  Speaker 1: and they actually lost at Tulsa, although Tulsa has caught
• 1:52:38
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State two years in a row now. Tulsa usually
• 1:52:40
  Speaker 1: gets up for that game big because they're an in-state
• 1:52:43
  Speaker 1: little brother. So I don't know how much weight to
• 1:52:45
  Speaker 1: put into that, but Oklahoma State also lost at Houston,
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 1: but they played them well. It was a close loss,
• 1:52:50
  Speaker 1: and then they beat West Virginia on the road So
• 1:52:52
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to think about them going on
• 1:52:54
  Speaker 1: the road here against an Iowa State team that's not
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 1: really that good. But a tough environment to play in.
• 1:53:00
  Speaker 1: And Oklahoma State coming off a blowout win. Iowa State's
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 1: coming off a blowout loss at Arizona last week. Although
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 1: maybe a little bit of a red flag because they
• 1:53:07
  Speaker 1: caught Arizona in a bad spot and still did terribly.
• 1:53:11
  Speaker 1: But still... I would lean to Iowa State here in
• 1:53:14
  Speaker 1: this one. Not a strong opinion from me, but you're
• 1:53:16
  Speaker 1: going to get them as an underdog of some kind here. Yeah,
• 1:53:19
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma State opened 10, but now they're 9.5 everywhere. I
• 1:53:22
  Speaker 1: would wait because they're a very public side. 73% of tickets,
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 1: 74% of the cash on Oklahoma State. So if you
• 1:53:30
  Speaker 1: like Iowa State, you might be able to get the
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 1: 10 here. It is a high total, though. High 50s,
• 1:53:34
  Speaker 1: so it makes it less... great to take the underdog here,
• 1:53:38
  Speaker 1: but you might be able to get 10 if you wait.
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: It might hit the 10 again because OK State is
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 1: definitely a public side in that one. I'd lean towards
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: taking the points with Iowa State. ACC Network at 7 p.m.
• 1:53:49
  Speaker 1: We have Clemson at Florida State. Clemson just lost at
• 1:53:53
  Speaker 1: home to Virginia Tech last week. Clemson was definitely favored
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: in this one. Only a three-point favorite, though. They did
• 1:53:59
  Speaker 1: actually outgain Virginia Tech in the game, but they still lost.
• 1:54:02
  Speaker 1: So now Clemson's coming off that loss. Florida State, I believe,
• 1:54:06
  Speaker 1: is coming out of a bye. So I think they
• 1:54:08
  Speaker 1: do have extra rest here. But they went into that
• 1:54:11
  Speaker 1: bye on a crazy note, dude. They took Miami into
• 1:54:14
  Speaker 1: double overtime. And we all remember that game. That was
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 1: that game with that weird, what was it, a holding call?
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 1: I think they called back. Florida State had scored a
• 1:54:23
  Speaker 1: touchdown in double overtime. They were going to need the
• 1:54:25
  Speaker 1: two-point conversion still to tie the game. But they had
• 1:54:28
  Speaker 1: scored a touchdown there. on a Hail Mary, which was
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 1: unlikely to begin with, but they did. It got called
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 1: back for a holding call that was a bad call,
• 1:54:36
  Speaker 1: and then obviously they had to repeat that Hail Mary,
• 1:54:39
  Speaker 1: and obviously they didn't do it. So that was a
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 1: brutal loss for Florida State, and it's even worse because
• 1:54:44
  Speaker 1: Miami's one of the top-ranked teams in the country, and
• 1:54:47
  Speaker 1: they're one of Florida State's biggest rivals. So Florida State
• 1:54:50
  Speaker 1: put everything into that game. So it's a good thing
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 1: for them that they had a bye after that, so
• 1:54:55
  Speaker 1: that'll help them a little bit, but I still wonder
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 1: if that's going to hang them over through that entire bye. Like,
• 1:55:00
  Speaker 1: if they were playing immediately the following week, Florida State
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 1: would be an absolute fade off of that Miami game.
• 1:55:06
  Speaker 1: The bye might help them recover a little bit, but
• 1:55:08
  Speaker 1: I still don't like it. I think I would lean
• 1:55:10
  Speaker 1: Clemson in this one. Clemson, let me see, what are
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 1: we looking at here? Florida State's got 60% of the
• 1:55:17
  Speaker 1: tickets and 66% of the cash on them, so I
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: don't know. I mean, it's hard to gauge if they're, like,
• 1:55:23
  Speaker 1: a public side, if the money is really on Florida State.
• 1:55:26
  Speaker 1: They've been sitting around six... a six-point favorite basically all week.
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 1: It's kind of a low total in the high 40s,
• 1:55:32
  Speaker 1: so you get six points with Clemson there with a
• 1:55:35
  Speaker 1: decent defense from Clemson here. So yeah, I would take
• 1:55:38
  Speaker 1: the points with Clemson if I was going to play
• 1:55:40
  Speaker 1: that one. Washington State at San Diego State, 7 p.m.
• 1:55:44
  Speaker 1: Eastern on CBS Sports. Ugly game. Washington State, bad team,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 1: although it looks too easy to play San Diego State
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 1: at this point because they're only a two-and-a-half-point favorite against
• 1:55:53
  Speaker 1: a one-win Washington State team that has no wins at all.
• 1:55:57
  Speaker 1: in the FBS this year. They just got blown out
• 1:55:59
  Speaker 1: by Boise. But I don't know, man. I think San
• 1:56:03
  Speaker 1: Diego State might be the right side here still. San
• 1:56:06
  Speaker 1: Diego State's coming off a hideous loss to Colorado State,
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 1: who's a bad team. Although what I will say is
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 1: that's a good-looking loss, though. That's the thing. So when
• 1:56:15
  Speaker 1: a team comes off a good-looking loss, so they put
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 1: up a lot of points, losing 56-49, you know, maybe
• 1:56:21
  Speaker 1: I'm going to change my opinion on this, right? Initial look,
• 1:56:24
  Speaker 1: when I looked at this game earlier, I was thinking
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: my lean was going to be San Diego State. Obviously,
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: I was not going to put this on the card
• 1:56:28
  Speaker 1: or anything. But I might actually change that opinion. Because
• 1:56:34
  Speaker 1: even though that's kind of a bad loss to Colorado State,
• 1:56:37
  Speaker 1: the spread was about like a pick-em price in that one. So,
• 1:56:40
  Speaker 1: you know, it wasn't a big upset or anything like
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: that for either side. San Diego State putting up 49
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: looks really good, and they might be a little bit
• 1:56:47
  Speaker 1: under the radar now because, of course, like I said,
• 1:56:49
  Speaker 1: they had a mumps outbreak that affected them for multiple
• 1:56:52
  Speaker 1: weeks in the middle of the season. They had a
• 1:56:54
  Speaker 1: bunch of injuries, and now they're getting a little bit
• 1:56:56
  Speaker 1: more healthy. So the San Diego State team now I
• 1:56:59
  Speaker 1: think is better than what they've looked like throughout the season.
• 1:57:02
  Speaker 1: But still, after putting up 49 points against Colorado State,
• 1:57:05
  Speaker 1: and we know Colorado State is a horrendous defense, I
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: guess it looks too easy to lay the points here
• 1:57:12
  Speaker 1: with San Diego State. You know, and Washington State, you know,
• 1:57:14
  Speaker 1: hasn't really looked impressive here, although, you know, I mean,
• 1:57:17
  Speaker 1: they lost by one at Utah State. They played okay
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: at Oregon State. It was not really that bad. They
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: played okay kind of against Arizona, too. So, you know,
• 1:57:27
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, Washington State might actually be
• 1:57:28
  Speaker 1: a little bit better than their record suggests, too. So,
• 1:57:31
  Speaker 1: you know what? I think I will lean Washington State
• 1:57:33
  Speaker 1: in this one. Not a strong opinion, but San Diego
• 1:57:36
  Speaker 1: State does look public. 73% of the tickets, although they
• 1:57:38
  Speaker 1: have 89% of the money on them, too. But public side,
• 1:57:44
  Speaker 1: it dropped from 3 to 2.5, so it looks like
• 1:57:45
  Speaker 1: some real money did actually hit Washington State here to
• 1:57:49
  Speaker 1: hit it through that key number down below the key
• 1:57:51
  Speaker 1: number 3. Obviously, if you like Washington State, you should
• 1:57:54
  Speaker 1: try to get the key number 3, and it is
• 1:57:55
  Speaker 1: a fairly low total in the high 40s. So getting
• 1:57:59
  Speaker 1: that key number, yeah, it matters. It matters a little
• 1:58:02
  Speaker 1: bit more given that the total is low, so points
• 1:58:04
  Speaker 1: might be at a premium here. um yeah you know
• 1:58:07
  Speaker 1: i think i would actually wind up leaning towards washington
• 1:58:10
  Speaker 1: state there just looks too easy to lay less than
• 1:58:13
  Speaker 1: a field goal against a team that only has one
• 1:58:16
  Speaker 1: win you know what i mean all right uh 7
• 1:58:18
  Speaker 1: 30 p.m eastern abc we have number one miami even
• 1:58:21
  Speaker 1: though i don't think they're actually the number one team
• 1:58:23
  Speaker 1: in the country I think they're a top several team,
• 1:58:26
  Speaker 1: but I don't think they're actually the number one. They're undefeated,
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: but they faced a pretty weak schedule, man. I mean,
• 1:58:32
  Speaker 1: what's their best win? At Wake Forest, who we now know,
• 1:58:36
  Speaker 1: I guess, Wake Forest is actually more solid than we thought.
• 1:58:39
  Speaker 1: Other than that, they got a nice blowout road win
• 1:58:42
  Speaker 1: against Clemson. I guess that's pretty good. Last week, they
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 1: blew out Pitt, so that's a good one. You can
• 1:58:48
  Speaker 1: only play who's in front of you, but they have
• 1:58:50
  Speaker 1: not had a strong schedule, man. This resume for Miami
• 1:58:53
  Speaker 1: is not that strong, so I think the jury is
• 1:58:55
  Speaker 1: actually still a little bit out on how good Miami
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 1: really is in the Mensa era here. Coming up, another
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: blowout where they put up 50-something points against Pitt. Pitt
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: kind of falling apart since they lost their quarterback, whatever.
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 1: But more importantly, Miami has that Notre Dame game up next.
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 1: And while that might be a little bit bigger for
• 1:59:14
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame, because it's a huge revenge spot for Notre Dame,
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: that's still going to be a huge game for both teams.
• 1:59:20
  Speaker 1: It's the Catholics versus the convicts, man. You know, the
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: old thing. This is a heated rivalry. I don't even
• 1:59:26
  Speaker 1: want to say that anymore, because that show ruined the phrase.
• 1:59:31
  Speaker 1: Thanks a lot, guys. Gays, guys, whatever.
• 1:59:35
  Speaker 2: Anyway....
• 1:59:37
  Speaker 1: Miami-Notre Dame, it's a historic rivalry. So both teams get
• 1:59:40
  Speaker 1: up for that game. So this is a look ahead
• 1:59:42
  Speaker 1: for Miami here. So I think they might get caught
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: here going to North Carolina. I'm not going to say
• 1:59:47
  Speaker 1: Miami's going to lose the game, but I would take
• 1:59:49
  Speaker 1: the points with UNC in this one. And North Carolina's
• 1:59:52
  Speaker 1: defense has been okay. You know, Belichick kind of turning
• 1:59:55
  Speaker 1: it around a little bit there with them. North Carolina's
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 1: got some decent results here, barely losing to Clemson. They
• 2:00:01
  Speaker 1: played tough against Notre Dame. So yeah, North Carolina's facing
• 2:00:05
  Speaker 1: a more difficult schedule. They played TCU over in, what
• 2:00:09
  Speaker 1: was it, in Ireland or whatever. TCU's not great, but still,
• 2:00:13
  Speaker 1: that was not the easiest game. They pulled off the
• 2:00:15
  Speaker 1: upset there. Played competitively against Notre Dame. Beat Pitt on
• 2:00:20
  Speaker 1: the road. Beat Duke on the road. That's not that bad.
• 2:00:23
  Speaker 1: And then last week, they lost to Syracuse by one.
• 2:00:27
  Speaker 1: And that's where I kind of have my reservations here,
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: because North Carolina is coming off three big games in
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 1: a row, beating Pitt, who I think was undefeated at
• 2:00:34
  Speaker 1: the time, maybe. Or at least they were ranked, as
• 2:00:36
  Speaker 1: you can see here. Then they beat their rival Duke,
• 2:00:39
  Speaker 1: pulled those games on the road. Then last week, they
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: almost pulled off... Oh, no, that was almost an upset
• 2:00:45
  Speaker 1: for Syracuse. What am I saying? So, yeah, no, no, no.
• 2:00:48
  Speaker 1: I don't have any real reservations about this. Why is
• 2:00:51
  Speaker 1: this not on my card, then?
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 4: Mmm....
• 2:00:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know. This one... I don't know. I feel
• 2:00:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit less strong about it because Miami's win
• 2:01:00
  Speaker 1: over pit. Wasn't anything. It's going to like put them
• 2:01:03
  Speaker 1: in a major letdown spot or anything, but it does
• 2:01:05
  Speaker 1: make them look too good. So yeah, I'm going to
• 2:01:07
  Speaker 1: leave this one off the card, but I like UNC
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: here and UNC is coming off a game where they
• 2:01:10
  Speaker 1: were a favorite and loss to Syracuse in overtime. So
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 1: my mistake.
• 2:01:14
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: Uh, North Carolina was a seven and a half point
• 2:01:17
  Speaker 1: favorite in that game. I think maybe they got caught
• 2:01:19
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Miami here. So North Carolina coming off
• 2:01:23
  Speaker 1: an upset loss as a favorite. They should bounce back here.
• 2:01:26
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I like North Carolina in this one. That's
• 2:01:29
  Speaker 1: the way I would play it. The line does almost
• 2:01:32
  Speaker 1: look too easy to play Miami here as well. Miami's
• 2:01:35
  Speaker 1: a 14 point favorite, I believe. They opened 15 and
• 2:01:38
  Speaker 1: the number did cross through 14 and a half. I
• 2:01:42
  Speaker 1: would take at least 14 if you're going to play
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 1: North Carolina. You might be able to find a 14.5
• 2:01:45
  Speaker 1: out there, and that's even better because you get the hook.
• 2:01:48
  Speaker 1: But get at least 14 with North Carolina if you're
• 2:01:51
  Speaker 1: going to do it. The money heavily agrees with North Carolina.
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: 73% of the tickets on Miami, 51% of the cash
• 2:01:57
  Speaker 1: on North Carolina. I agree with it as well. That's
• 2:02:00
  Speaker 1: the way I would play it. It is a little
• 2:02:02
  Speaker 1: bit of a higher total, somewhat 53.5. It's not exactly low,
• 2:02:06
  Speaker 1: so that makes taking the points a little bit less
• 2:02:09
  Speaker 1: enticing to me, but I still like this one. This
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 1: one is, yeah, that one is one of my somewhat
• 2:02:16
  Speaker 1: stronger opinions, at least I would say. I like North
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: Carolina plus the points in that one. Number two, Ohio
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 1: State at USC, 7.30 p.m. on NBC. Of course, one
• 2:02:26
  Speaker 1: thing we do have to point out is we have
• 2:02:28
  Speaker 1: a more eastern team here like Ohio State going out
• 2:02:30
  Speaker 1: to the Pacific Coast to play a late-night game. I
• 2:02:33
  Speaker 1: talk about it all the time. It's not easy. You
• 2:02:37
  Speaker 1: have to adjust your biological clock to the Pacific Coast.
• 2:02:39
  Speaker 1: It can be bad for you. You're playing late at night.
• 2:02:42
  Speaker 1: So that's a negative for Ohio State. Other thing we
• 2:02:45
  Speaker 1: need to know here is that Ohio State lost their quarterback,
• 2:02:49
  Speaker 1: Julian Sainz, so he's out. So... but that does mean
• 2:02:53
  Speaker 1: this could be an injured player spot for Ohio state. Right.
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 1: I talk about that a lot. When your quarterback goes down,
• 2:02:58
  Speaker 1: a lot of times the team will step up their game.
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: You'll get a little bit of value on the team.
• 2:03:02
  Speaker 1: Like Ohio state's going to be a lesser, they're going
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 1: to be a lesser favorite here because their quarterback's down. Um,
• 2:03:09
  Speaker 1: And they might step up their game a little bit
• 2:03:10
  Speaker 1: extra to accommodate for that because this is going to
• 2:03:12
  Speaker 1: be their first game without him. The other advantage it
• 2:03:15
  Speaker 1: does give Ohio State is that USC doesn't exactly know
• 2:03:18
  Speaker 1: what to prepare for here because Ohio State is, I
• 2:03:21
  Speaker 1: think they haven't even announced who their quarterback is. Although
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 1: I think it'll be the guy who stepped in after
• 2:03:26
  Speaker 1: Sane got hurt last week. I'm pretty sure they're going
• 2:03:28
  Speaker 1: to keep going with Luke Fahey is his name. I
• 2:03:31
  Speaker 1: think they're going to keep going with him even though
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: he is a freshman. The other guy they might go
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 1: with is sophomore Tavian St. Clair. I think he might
• 2:03:40
  Speaker 1: be a little bit more of a dual threat guy,
• 2:03:42
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure. Although he is taller too, so
• 2:03:45
  Speaker 1: maybe I'm wrong. Luke Fahey is a little bit of
• 2:03:46
  Speaker 1: a smaller guy. I don't know. But I believe it
• 2:03:49
  Speaker 1: will be Fahey, but I think they haven't really announced
• 2:03:51
  Speaker 1: that yet. As far as this handicap is going to
• 2:03:54
  Speaker 1: be concerned, I don't think it matters which one of
• 2:03:55
  Speaker 1: the quarterbacks it's going to be. But for USC, they
• 2:03:58
  Speaker 1: might not know what to prepare for. There's no footage
• 2:04:02
  Speaker 1: on St. Clair because I don't think he's played at all.
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: Fahey has played very limited. There's not much footage, so
• 2:04:09
  Speaker 1: USC might not know what to expect from Ohio State here. However...
• 2:04:14
  Speaker 1: This is definitely a downgrade in their quarterback situation here.
• 2:04:17
  Speaker 1: And you don't know how their young quarterbacks are going
• 2:04:20
  Speaker 1: to respond here. They're going to throw a quarterback into
• 2:04:22
  Speaker 1: the fire who really doesn't have much experience. That could
• 2:04:26
  Speaker 1: be a little bit difficult, even though it is technically
• 2:04:29
  Speaker 1: an injured player theory spot. You know, it's better if you're...
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 1: Backup quarterback has experience, and that's not the case with
• 2:04:38
  Speaker 1: Ohio State here. And they're going to be playing on
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 1: the Pacific Coast. USC doesn't have that much of a
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 1: dominant home crowd there or anything. They looked pretty bad
• 2:04:46
  Speaker 1: early in the season in some of those home games.
• 2:04:47
  Speaker 1: They don't show up, really. But, yeah, there are some
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 1: things that make this spot difficult for Ohio State. And
• 2:04:53
  Speaker 1: if there was no injured quarterback here, I would feel
• 2:04:57
  Speaker 1: more strongly about USC because I like USC in this game,
• 2:05:00
  Speaker 1: plus the points. But the injured player theory spot for
• 2:05:03
  Speaker 1: Ohio State is... giving me hesitation here. Cause I think
• 2:05:06
  Speaker 1: that is more of a positive for Ohio state and
• 2:05:09
  Speaker 1: you're going to get more value on them because of it.
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 1: So that has me hesitating, but I do still lean
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 1: USC here for a few different reasons. One being that
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: Ohio state's quarterback might, you know, not do well under
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: the pressure. We don't even know yet. But the other
• 2:05:22
  Speaker 1: thing is Ohio state's coming up that monster win. Last
• 2:05:25
  Speaker 1: time we saw them, they beat Indiana monster win for them.
• 2:05:29
  Speaker 1: And it was revenge as well, right? Cause Indiana beat
• 2:05:32
  Speaker 1: them in the, uh, Big Ten title game last year
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 1: and then went on to win the championship. Huge game
• 2:05:37
  Speaker 1: for Ohio State, okay? So I think it sets them
• 2:05:41
  Speaker 1: up for a letdown, even though, yes, they did go
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 1: into a bye after that. And yes, that bye will
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 1: help Ohio State because they have an extra week to
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 1: prepare for their new quarterback to learn the system or whatever.
• 2:05:50
  Speaker 1: So yes, having a bye does help Ohio State's situation
• 2:05:54
  Speaker 1: with the new quarterback and whatever. However, the bye could
• 2:05:57
  Speaker 1: still be a negative too because they went into the
• 2:05:59
  Speaker 1: bye on a huge win streak, a five-game win streak.
• 2:06:01
  Speaker 1: They had their biggest win of the season going into
• 2:06:04
  Speaker 1: the bye, so I think that still could be a negative.
• 2:06:07
  Speaker 1: Like I said, if there was no injured quarterback here,
• 2:06:09
  Speaker 1: I'd definitely be fading out Ohio State here because the
• 2:06:12
  Speaker 1: situation otherwise looked real negative for them. The fact that
• 2:06:15
  Speaker 1: they pulled off that big win over Indiana, the bye
• 2:06:18
  Speaker 1: could disrupt their winning momentum. Yeah, I mean, even just
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 1: because all that's still the case, I still don't love
• 2:06:25
  Speaker 1: it for Ohio State here. And then for USC, they're
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 1: coming off a pretty ugly loss last week. They had
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 1: to go to Wisconsin. And we know that this USC
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 1: team just doesn't play that well when they go east.
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: They only beat Rutgers by seven. They did get the
• 2:06:37
  Speaker 1: job done in Penn State, but Penn State not looking
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: that good here. That was probably their, you know, That
• 2:06:43
  Speaker 1: was the game I thought they were maybe most likely
• 2:06:46
  Speaker 1: to lose out of these three, but then they didn't
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: play well at all against Wisconsin last week. Wisconsin pulled
• 2:06:51
  Speaker 1: off the mild upset there. USC looked awful and only
• 2:06:54
  Speaker 1: put up seven points there. USC's offense is better than this,
• 2:06:59
  Speaker 1: although Ohio State is no joke on defense, obviously. Wisconsin's
• 2:07:03
  Speaker 1: good on defense. Ohio State's probably even better than that.
• 2:07:05
  Speaker 1: I mean, they definitely are. So, yeah, I mean, but
• 2:07:08
  Speaker 1: do you think USC's really going to get held to
• 2:07:10
  Speaker 1: seven again? I don't know, man. And this time they're
• 2:07:14
  Speaker 1: going to be an underdog. So USC was a favorite
• 2:07:16
  Speaker 1: in that game against Wisconsin, but now they're going to
• 2:07:18
  Speaker 1: be a home underdog this time. I'm still going to
• 2:07:21
  Speaker 1: lead towards USC here. Put everything that I said, put
• 2:07:24
  Speaker 1: it into a blender. You know, like I said, if
• 2:07:27
  Speaker 1: you throw the injured player theory out. This might be
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 1: one that winds up on my card. If the injured
• 2:07:33
  Speaker 1: player theory wasn't involved here, I might have USC on
• 2:07:36
  Speaker 1: my card. They'd be getting above its touchdown here. They're
• 2:07:38
  Speaker 1: coming off a hideous loss. Ohio State went into a
• 2:07:41
  Speaker 1: bye that could disrupt their momentum. Yeah, I'm still going
• 2:07:45
  Speaker 1: to lean towards USC here in this one, plus the points.
• 2:07:48
  Speaker 1: Either way, though. Ohio State's a 6.5 point favorite, and
• 2:07:52
  Speaker 1: I think that is telling. We don't see the percentages
• 2:07:55
  Speaker 1: anymore here, but I think I can tell you Ohio
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 1: State is a public side here. Hold on, let me
• 2:07:58
  Speaker 1: see if we refresh. if I can get that back
• 2:08:01
  Speaker 1: here let me see hopefully I can yes I can
• 2:08:05
  Speaker 1: no wait I have to switch to college football no
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 1: holy shit it looks like Sacramento State's going to get
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: their first FBS win I don't want to jinx it
• 2:08:16
  Speaker 1: but congratulations to them Kent State, awful. But yeah, we
• 2:08:21
  Speaker 1: don't see the percentages on this. What the hell, man?
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: Unless maybe I can... Yeah, we could see it here
• 2:08:26
  Speaker 1: if I enlarge this. So yeah, Ohio State's very public.
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: 79% of tickets. 75% of the cash on them, so
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: that is telling, right? Now we can see it again.
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 1: Ohio State's a super public side, and the line has
• 2:08:38
  Speaker 1: actually dropped from 7 to 6.5, and maybe some of
• 2:08:41
  Speaker 1: that's because of the quarterback situation, but I think that
• 2:08:44
  Speaker 1: tells you the oddsmakers are absolutely okay with taking all
• 2:08:48
  Speaker 1: that money on Ohio State. I think the oddsmakers are
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: taking a stand there. I think it also tells you
• 2:08:52
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of professional money on USC that's holding
• 2:08:55
  Speaker 1: that line down because with that much public action, how
• 2:08:58
  Speaker 1: is the line growing? stayed at six and a half
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: and not even crept up to seven really you know
• 2:09:03
  Speaker 1: what I mean that's telling I think because it hasn't
• 2:09:06
  Speaker 1: even gone up to that key number even though the
• 2:09:07
  Speaker 1: public is all over Ohio State so yeah USC is
• 2:09:10
  Speaker 1: going to be the lean in that one doesn't make
• 2:09:12
  Speaker 1: the cut for me because of all the quarterback uncertainty
• 2:09:15
  Speaker 1: and whatever and it being the potential injured player theory
• 2:09:18
  Speaker 1: spot and, you know, the buy possibly being somewhat helpful
• 2:09:21
  Speaker 1: for that reason. But yeah, I feel like I'm, yeah,
• 2:09:24
  Speaker 1: talking too much about the game, repeating myself. I don't
• 2:09:26
  Speaker 1: want to do that, but yeah, if you want to
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 1: take USC, I would wait and try to find a
• 2:09:29
  Speaker 1: seven on this. I think you might be able to
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: get the seven on USC and get on that key numbers.
• 2:09:34
  Speaker 1: That's what I would do. Lean USC plus the points
• 2:09:37
  Speaker 1: in that one. All right. Mississippi state at number 11,
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 1: Texas on ESPN at 7 30 PM Eastern. I thought
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: this was one was going to make the cut for
• 2:09:45
  Speaker 1: me and, and, I think I'm going to leave it alone,
• 2:09:48
  Speaker 1: but I like Mississippi State in this one. They haven't
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: stepped up well in class, though, and that's kind of
• 2:09:52
  Speaker 1: the problem here. Teams of Texas' caliber, Mississippi State got
• 2:09:59
  Speaker 1: crushed by Alabama, crushed by LSU. Doesn't exactly look great.
• 2:10:04
  Speaker 1: They're coming off another loss here against Oklahoma. Sure, they're
• 2:10:08
  Speaker 1: going to try to get up for this game. Mississippi
• 2:10:09
  Speaker 1: State still needs to get a couple of wins here
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 1: to become bowl eligible. They're going to do that anyway
• 2:10:14
  Speaker 1: with a couple of weak opponents in the schedule coming
• 2:10:17
  Speaker 1: after this. Texas, though, I don't think Texas is in
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 1: that good of a spot, even though I do think
• 2:10:22
  Speaker 1: Texas is better than their number 11 ranking suggests because
• 2:10:25
  Speaker 1: they have the two losses in here. But I think
• 2:10:29
  Speaker 1: Texas is still a top 10 team here. Texas is
• 2:10:32
  Speaker 1: coming up a big win, though. That was the college
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: game day game, I'm pretty sure, last week where they
• 2:10:35
  Speaker 1: beat Ole Miss. Big win. And on deck, they got Missouri,
• 2:10:39
  Speaker 1: who is a ranked team. So this does look a
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: little bit sandwichy. You know, LSU is after that. If
• 2:10:44
  Speaker 1: LSU was coming up immediately next, I don't know if
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 1: maybe that would be enough to put this on the card.
• 2:10:49
  Speaker 1: When I first looked at this, I thought Mississippi State
• 2:10:51
  Speaker 1: was going to be a play for me. I was like,
• 2:10:53
  Speaker 1: oh yeah, this is a sandwich for Texas. And I
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 1: think it is. I like Mississippi State plus the points
• 2:10:58
  Speaker 1: in this one. I don't quite want to get there
• 2:11:00
  Speaker 1: with this one. But yeah, I would take the points
• 2:11:02
  Speaker 1: with Mississippi State here. Plus, you're also getting a ton
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 1: of points. Texas is getting the money, though. 59% of tickets,
• 2:11:10
  Speaker 1: 83% of the cash on Texas. So the money is
• 2:11:12
  Speaker 1: coming in on Texas here. That worries me a little bit.
• 2:11:15
  Speaker 1: They're a three-touchdown favorite, but also they've dropped from 21
• 2:11:19
  Speaker 1: to 20.5 now. So if you like Mississippi State... You
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 1: could wait, I guess, and see if you get three
• 2:11:25
  Speaker 1: touchdowns here because that's a key number, 21. I'd still
• 2:11:28
  Speaker 1: lean that way anyway at 20.5, but obviously you want
• 2:11:32
  Speaker 1: to try to get the 21 if you can. But yeah,
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: I would, I guess, buck the market in this one.
• 2:11:36
  Speaker 1: I would lean towards Mississippi State in this one. The
• 2:11:38
  Speaker 1: total's not that high at 50.5. And Texas, they're better
• 2:11:41
  Speaker 1: on defense than offense. So asking Texas' offense in a
• 2:11:45
  Speaker 1: spot like this to cover a huge spread like this
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 1: little bit of a tall order for Texas. So yeah,
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 1: I would take the points of Mississippi state in that one. Uh,
• 2:11:56
  Speaker 1: if I was going to do anything with it.
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 2:11:59
  Speaker 1: And you know, I guess part of the reason I'm
• 2:12:01
  Speaker 1: laying off that game as well, as far as putting
• 2:12:02
  Speaker 1: it on my card, I guess is, you know, the
• 2:12:04
  Speaker 1: market read is kind of worrying me a little bit
• 2:12:05
  Speaker 1: in that one too. Sometimes I'll fade it, uh, but
• 2:12:08
  Speaker 1: not in that case, but I still do lean to
• 2:12:10
  Speaker 1: Mississippi state there. All right. Uh, Georgia tech and pit
• 2:12:13
  Speaker 1: ESPN two 7 30 PM Eastern. Uh, Georgia Tech coming
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 1: off a bad loss at home to Boston College. You know,
• 2:12:22
  Speaker 1: they were a big favorite in that one and lost
• 2:12:24
  Speaker 1: the game. So I think it could be a bounce
• 2:12:25
  Speaker 1: back for Georgia Tech here, although they haven't really played
• 2:12:28
  Speaker 1: that well this year. But Pitt has kind of been faltering,
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: you know, since the quarterback injury or whatever. Pitt's coming
• 2:12:34
  Speaker 1: off an absolute blowout loss to Miami, though. So they
• 2:12:37
  Speaker 1: should kind of be in bounce back mode, too, here.
• 2:12:40
  Speaker 1: So I think this one might kind of come down
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: to who's the better team here because both teams look
• 2:12:45
  Speaker 1: like they're in bounce back spots. Uh, Pittsburgh is still
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: the better team and the money is coming in that
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 1: way towards pit, uh, 56% of tickets, 94% of the
• 2:12:53
  Speaker 1: cash on them. That's a pretty strong market read there.
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 1: And when I don't really have a feel for the situation,
• 2:12:59
  Speaker 1: I'll lean that way. I'll lean towards laying it with Pittsburgh.
• 2:13:01
  Speaker 1: They opened seven, seven and a half ish, basically, but
• 2:13:04
  Speaker 1: there's no way you're going to get a seven. Now, um,
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 1: it'll be seven and a half or a little bit
• 2:13:08
  Speaker 1: more than that, but I still think laying it is
• 2:13:10
  Speaker 1: my lean in that one. No, not, not Eileen. Um,
• 2:13:15
  Speaker 1: Or he'd come on my lean, win it for me.
• 2:13:20
  Speaker 1: I was going to go with some innuendo there. I
• 2:13:24
  Speaker 1: decided to make it wholesome. There you go. Aren't you surprised?
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 1: All right. On number 23, Missouri at Arkansas on the
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: SEC Network here. This game kind of hard for me
• 2:13:35
  Speaker 1: to figure out as well. Missouri's coming off a blowout
• 2:13:38
  Speaker 1: loss at the hands of Ole Miss, and I believe
• 2:13:40
  Speaker 1: they had a bye after that. Yeah, so Missouri went
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: into the bye on kind of a bad note, right?
• 2:13:46
  Speaker 1: I mean, it is a bad note getting blown out.
• 2:13:49
  Speaker 1: So there's a possibility they bounce back after that, and
• 2:13:51
  Speaker 1: maybe the bye will help them. But they do have
• 2:13:54
  Speaker 1: Texas on deck, and maybe they're going to start looking
• 2:13:56
  Speaker 1: ahead to that. As far as Arkansas is concerned, Arkansas,
• 2:13:59
  Speaker 1: I believe, went into the bye as well, and they
• 2:14:01
  Speaker 1: went in on a better note. They beat Vandy. So, yeah,
• 2:14:04
  Speaker 1: they went into the bye on a better note, pulling
• 2:14:07
  Speaker 1: off that upset of Vandy, which I'm not happy about
• 2:14:09
  Speaker 1: because I think we had Vandy on the show as
• 2:14:11
  Speaker 1: a play there. So, you know, Missouri went into the
• 2:14:14
  Speaker 1: bye on a much more negative note than Arkansas did.
• 2:14:17
  Speaker 1: Arkansas went in on the positive note, so I think
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 1: the bye will actually help Missouri a little bit more.
• 2:14:23
  Speaker 1: So that has me kind of leaning towards Missouri in
• 2:14:25
  Speaker 1: this one, but I know the market read is absolutely
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 1: not agreeing with that. Maybe because of the Missouri look
• 2:14:30
  Speaker 1: ahead to Texas. I'm not really sure. Or maybe we
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: just think Missouri is just laying too many points here.
• 2:14:35
  Speaker 1: They're laying 10 points with a pretty low total of 48.5.
• 2:14:39
  Speaker 1: Missouri has 65% of the tickets on them, 57% of
• 2:14:41
  Speaker 1: the cash on Arkansas. The market read is absolutely saying
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 1: Arkansas there. You know, like a pros versus Joes type
• 2:14:49
  Speaker 1: of market read. Strong market read on Arkansas plus the points. Tough,
• 2:14:55
  Speaker 1: tough call. You know, I guess I'll agree. I guess
• 2:14:58
  Speaker 1: I'll lean that way towards Arkansas, but definitely not going
• 2:15:01
  Speaker 1: to be a game I'm going to be considering. But,
• 2:15:04
  Speaker 1: you know, these two teams, you know, they're in bordering states.
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: They're the Ozark teams. So maybe this is, this might
• 2:15:09
  Speaker 1: be a rivalry. I don't really know. Maybe it is.
• 2:15:11
  Speaker 5: I don't know.
• 2:15:12
  Speaker 1: But yeah, don't have a good feel for that one.
• 2:15:15
  Speaker 1: Washington at Nebraska, 8 p.m. Big Ten Network. Feels weird,
• 2:15:19
  Speaker 1: Washington in the Big Ten still. Washington went into the
• 2:15:23
  Speaker 1: bye on a good note, beating Purdue in primetime. So
• 2:15:27
  Speaker 1: does that mean they're going to... Is the bye going
• 2:15:30
  Speaker 1: to come at a disadvantageous time? I'm not so sure,
• 2:15:34
  Speaker 1: because they had a three-game losing streak that they ended
• 2:15:36
  Speaker 1: with that win over Purdue. So it's possible that it's
• 2:15:40
  Speaker 1: just going to end their losing momentum still, having the
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: bye off of that. Although, yes, they went into the
• 2:15:44
  Speaker 1: bye on a pretty good note, beating Purdue. But maybe...
• 2:15:48
  Speaker 1: they won't come out flat out of the bye because
• 2:15:51
  Speaker 1: that did end that losing streak for them, and they're
• 2:15:52
  Speaker 1: not really going to overlook Nebraska. Now, as far as
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 1: Nebraska's concerned, they did go into the bye on a
• 2:15:59
  Speaker 1: bad note. They're coming out of the bye, and they
• 2:16:00
  Speaker 1: went into the bye. They lost two straight games. However,
• 2:16:04
  Speaker 1: I guess you could maybe counter that by saying, well,
• 2:16:07
  Speaker 1: those are two big games against Indiana and Oregon, and
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 1: Nebraska played really well in both games. They played close
• 2:16:13
  Speaker 1: in both those games, so is it possible there's still
• 2:16:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a hangover here through the bye? Maybe.
• 2:16:19
  Speaker 1: This is a difficult game to figure out because it
• 2:16:22
  Speaker 1: looks like kind of an inverted bye situation where maybe
• 2:16:24
  Speaker 1: Nebraska would bounce back from the bye. And, you know, maybe...
• 2:16:30
  Speaker 1: Who was I talking about? Nebraska and Washington, right? And
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: Washington might, you know, have like a bye that wasn't
• 2:16:37
  Speaker 1: that advantageous for them because they played well, you know,
• 2:16:43
  Speaker 1: in that last game going into the bye, but... I
• 2:16:45
  Speaker 1: don't know, the more I think about it, I think
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: maybe the better way to look at it is, well,
• 2:16:48
  Speaker 1: those are just huge games that Nebraska had, and maybe
• 2:16:50
  Speaker 1: they'll be still hung over through the bye. Nebraska opened 9.5,
• 2:16:54
  Speaker 1: and they dropped all the way to 7.5, and it
• 2:16:56
  Speaker 1: is a low total in this one, too. High 40s
• 2:16:59
  Speaker 1: are around 50, so taking the points makes a little
• 2:17:01
  Speaker 1: more sense when the total's low. 69% of the tickets
• 2:17:04
  Speaker 1: were on Nebraska, and only 62% of the cash. The
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: money kind of indicating towards the Washington side. I guess
• 2:17:11
  Speaker 1: I will lean that way, but... Towards taking the points
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: with Washington, but yeah, I don't have a good feel
• 2:17:18
  Speaker 1: for this one. I don't exactly love Washington leaving the
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 1: Pacific Coast and going to kind of an unfamiliar venue
• 2:17:24
  Speaker 1: here either. So yeah, I definitely don't love that game.
• 2:17:27
  Speaker 1: ESPNU at 8 p.m. We have Army at Memphis. Army
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 1: beat us last week in one of the primetime games,
• 2:17:34
  Speaker 1: beating Tulsa. I'm not happy about that. Tulsa made the
• 2:17:37
  Speaker 1: comeback and then fell short. Army does have a pretty
• 2:17:40
  Speaker 1: big game up next against Air Force, the Commander-in-Chief trophy thing,
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 1: but they're not going to overlook Memphis, I wouldn't think.
• 2:17:48
  Speaker 1: In primetime, Memphis, is one of the better teams in
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 1: this conference. I don't really see Army overlooking Memphis here.
• 2:17:53
  Speaker 1: Memphis is trying to win this conference this year, as
• 2:17:56
  Speaker 1: they usually are. And Memphis is coming off a bad performance, though,
• 2:18:00
  Speaker 1: against East Carolina, where they barely got by. They got
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 1: taken into overtime as a big favorite last Thursday. So
• 2:18:07
  Speaker 1: you know I talk about that. I'm going to mention
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: it again. Memphis as a big favorite, almost losing the game.
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: Usually a team bounces back, and they refocus when that happens.
• 2:18:15
  Speaker 1: They get, like, shocked back into focus because they didn't
• 2:18:17
  Speaker 1: play well in a game where they should have played
• 2:18:19
  Speaker 1: a lot better, so... I think Memphis is probably the
• 2:18:22
  Speaker 1: right side here. I think that's the way I would
• 2:18:25
  Speaker 1: lean in this one. Although they're having to face Army,
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 1: a triple option, and maybe they're not that comfortable with
• 2:18:31
  Speaker 1: doing that. 60% of the tickets are on Memphis, 54%
• 2:18:35
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Army. So the money is saying
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 1: Army here, but I just don't think I agree. yeah
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 1: Memphis is laying six now I'd lean more towards laying
• 2:18:45
  Speaker 1: it with Memphis in that one and disagreeing with the
• 2:18:47
  Speaker 1: market on that one but yeah I mean I don't
• 2:18:50
  Speaker 1: usually want to disagree with the market but that one
• 2:18:52
  Speaker 1: yeah I don't know the situation seems like it should
• 2:18:56
  Speaker 1: favor Memphis as the better team there in what looks
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 1: like a bounce back spot by the way I'm pretty
• 2:19:00
  Speaker 1: sure this game is going under by the way Kent
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: State Sacramento State out of nowhere scored 24 and I
• 2:19:07
  Speaker 1: told you these are pathetic offenses but Don't want to
• 2:19:10
  Speaker 1: jump the gun there, but I think my under lean
• 2:19:13
  Speaker 1: in that game is still going to be correct there.
• 2:19:15
  Speaker 1: All right. To finish this off, we have Texas State
• 2:19:17
  Speaker 1: at number 20, Boise State on the CW at 10 p.m.
• 2:19:22
  Speaker 1: Eastern as we get into the real late night games here. Now,
• 2:19:24
  Speaker 1: for Texas State, could be difficult because they're new to
• 2:19:27
  Speaker 1: this conference. They're not used to playing in Boise on
• 2:19:30
  Speaker 1: the blue turf. They're going to have to play at
• 2:19:32
  Speaker 1: 10 p.m. and go west for it and play in...
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 1: I believe Boise's actually in Mountain Time, if I'm not mistaken,
• 2:19:38
  Speaker 1: because they're a little bit further east than the more
• 2:19:41
  Speaker 1: like the University of Idaho and Moscow or whatever it
• 2:19:44
  Speaker 1: is on Pacific Time. So I think the time zone
• 2:19:47
  Speaker 1: changes between the two. But either way... I don't really
• 2:19:50
  Speaker 1: love it for Texas State going out west and having
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: to play a late-night game like this. They could mess
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: with their biological clock. However, as I mentioned earlier in
• 2:19:58
  Speaker 1: the show, Texas State did not play well against Utah
• 2:20:01
  Speaker 1: State last week as a big favorite. Texas State was
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 1: like a 14-point favorite. Their offense failed in the game,
• 2:20:06
  Speaker 1: and they almost lost the game. I think maybe they
• 2:20:09
  Speaker 1: were looking ahead to Boise, so I think this actually
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 1: could be a bounce-back for Texas State here off of
• 2:20:14
  Speaker 1: that ugly game against Utah State. Usually, again, when a
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 1: big favorite plays poorly, like I just said with Memphis,
• 2:20:20
  Speaker 1: They do tend to bounce back and play better in
• 2:20:22
  Speaker 1: the next game. And in this case, I think they
• 2:20:23
  Speaker 1: were looking ahead to Boise. So I think that was
• 2:20:25
  Speaker 1: the main reason why they almost got caught by Utah
• 2:20:29
  Speaker 1: State there. Now for Boise, yeah, Boise's rolling along here.
• 2:20:34
  Speaker 1: They just wanted to blow out against Washington State. No
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 1: real big deal there. But at some point, maybe they
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 1: just get tripped up somewhere just because maybe they're just
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 1: not paying attention fully to some of these lesser opponents
• 2:20:45
  Speaker 1: they're facing here. So I do think I prefer Texas
• 2:20:48
  Speaker 1: State in this one, but I don't want to do
• 2:20:50
  Speaker 1: it because it's an unfamiliar venue for them going out
• 2:20:54
  Speaker 1: into one of the more Western time zones or whatever.
• 2:20:56
  Speaker 1: But I'm still going to lean towards them. It doesn't
• 2:20:58
  Speaker 1: make the cut for me or anything. But Boise, 80%
• 2:21:00
  Speaker 1: of the tickets on them, 67% of the cash on them.
• 2:21:03
  Speaker 1: So the money seems to agree with Texas State here.
• 2:21:06
  Speaker 1: Boise is a public side, of course. The line opened
• 2:21:10
  Speaker 1: 12 and it already dropped to 10.5. If you're going
• 2:21:12
  Speaker 1: to play Texas State, get the 10.5. Get the right
• 2:21:17
  Speaker 1: side of the key number there. Texas State is a
• 2:21:20
  Speaker 1: high-scoring team. They're not good on defense. They turn the
• 2:21:23
  Speaker 1: ball over way too much. That would worry me about
• 2:21:26
  Speaker 1: Texas State because they're way too turnover-prone. But they do
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 1: have a good offense. That's the one good thing about them. However...
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: You usually want defense if you're going to be taking
• 2:21:35
  Speaker 1: the points, and this total is pretty high in the 60s,
• 2:21:38
  Speaker 1: so it makes taking the points a little bit less
• 2:21:40
  Speaker 1: enticing there, but that is the way I would lean
• 2:21:42
  Speaker 1: in that game. Northern Illinois at UNLV, CBS Sports, 10.30 p.m. Eastern.
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: Northern Illinois having to go out west like this. Northern
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 1: Illinois somehow in the Mountain West now. Oh yeah. That
• 2:21:55
  Speaker 1: looks difficult, man. Northern Illinois having to play out in
• 2:21:58
  Speaker 1: the Pacific time and adjust their times. Don't just like
• 2:22:00
  Speaker 1: I mentioned with Texas state doesn't look easy for Northern Illinois.
• 2:22:05
  Speaker 1: Northern Illinois just got blown up by Hawaii in their
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: last game. their own seven. It's been real bad for
• 2:22:11
  Speaker 1: Northern Illinois. This is a very doubt for Northern Illinois,
• 2:22:13
  Speaker 1: really down program. They might wind up getting relegated to
• 2:22:16
  Speaker 1: FCS or something, man. I don't know, but this is
• 2:22:19
  Speaker 1: a game that maybe they do get up for. Cause
• 2:22:21
  Speaker 1: UNLV is one of the top teams in the conference.
• 2:22:23
  Speaker 1: So maybe you see Northern Illinois, you know, put in
• 2:22:26
  Speaker 1: some sort of effort here. Um, Will it be enough?
• 2:22:29
  Speaker 4: I don't know.
• 2:22:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, UNLV's coming off kind of an ugly loss
• 2:22:32
  Speaker 1: to Air Force, and then they went into a bye,
• 2:22:34
  Speaker 1: and you can kind of see why they lost to
• 2:22:36
  Speaker 1: Air Force, because I think they weren't used to the
• 2:22:38
  Speaker 1: triple option, really. Going into elevation, pretty difficult spot, but
• 2:22:41
  Speaker 1: also UNLV had a big win in conference against North
• 2:22:44
  Speaker 1: Dakota State the week before that, so I think it
• 2:22:47
  Speaker 1: was a bad spot for UNLV going into Air Force there.
• 2:22:51
  Speaker 1: They lost, and now that they're coming out of a bye,
• 2:22:53
  Speaker 1: I think that bye should actually help UNLV go into
• 2:22:56
  Speaker 1: the bye on a bad note. So I actually think UNLV,
• 2:23:00
  Speaker 1: they may be in an okay spot here. However, it
• 2:23:02
  Speaker 1: is possible they look ahead because they got Wyoming and
• 2:23:04
  Speaker 1: New Mexico coming up, and you wouldn't really think Wyoming
• 2:23:07
  Speaker 1: would be a look ahead, but I think they might
• 2:23:09
  Speaker 1: be because Wyoming's 4-1 in conference, and then New Mexico...
• 2:23:13
  Speaker 1: Right after that is the only undefeated team in conference.
• 2:23:15
  Speaker 1: So UNLV may have a look-ahead component to this. And
• 2:23:19
  Speaker 1: the money is all on Northern Illinois here. UNLV, 70%
• 2:23:22
  Speaker 1: of the tickets, 90% of the cash on Northern Illinois.
• 2:23:25
  Speaker 1: Very strong marguerite. And I guess the argument for the
• 2:23:27
  Speaker 1: look-ahead that UNLV might be in Maybe that's enough to
• 2:23:31
  Speaker 1: have me agreeing with that and leaning towards Northern Illinois,
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 1: but I definitely don't want to do it for the
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 1: reasons I have stated. The line dropped from 24.5 all
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 1: the way to like 22.5, 21.5 though. So you missed
• 2:23:43
  Speaker 1: out on the first key number of 24, 24.5 here,
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 1: but you can still get above three touchdowns with Northern
• 2:23:48
  Speaker 1: Illinois if you really want to do it. And the
• 2:23:51
  Speaker 1: total is like in the mid 40s, which is, you know,
• 2:23:54
  Speaker 1: kind of a... A middle-sized total, medium-sized total there, whatever
• 2:23:58
  Speaker 1: you want to call it. All right, the last game,
• 2:24:00
  Speaker 1: USA Network, 11 p.m. Eastern, two Pacific Coast teams here,
• 2:24:04
  Speaker 1: Oregon State and Fresno State. And I think this handicap
• 2:24:07
  Speaker 1: is kind of simple. Oregon State's been putting up a
• 2:24:10
  Speaker 1: ton of offense, so they look good in the public eye.
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 1: And yeah, they looked pretty good against Houston and Texas Tech, too.
• 2:24:16
  Speaker 1: So this Oregon State team is not bad. I'm not
• 2:24:19
  Speaker 1: going to claim that. But they've been putting up a
• 2:24:21
  Speaker 1: lot of offense recently, which makes them look really good.
• 2:24:24
  Speaker 1: And maybe that makes them look a little bit too good,
• 2:24:27
  Speaker 1: blowing out Washington State in their last game. Let me
• 2:24:30
  Speaker 1: just make sure there's no bye coming into play here.
• 2:24:34
  Speaker 1: There is, actually. Oregon State went into a bye after
• 2:24:37
  Speaker 1: those blowout wins, so good thing I looked. That makes
• 2:24:40
  Speaker 1: it a bad spot for Oregon State, man. Winning five
• 2:24:43
  Speaker 1: games in a row, blowout fashion for most of them,
• 2:24:46
  Speaker 1: or all of them, really, and then going into a bye.
• 2:24:49
  Speaker 1: I think that's bad. I think Oregon State, yeah, that
• 2:24:52
  Speaker 1: could disrupt their momentum here, man. So I think it's
• 2:24:54
  Speaker 1: a negative spot for Oregon State here. For Fresno... They
• 2:24:59
  Speaker 1: lost their last game, I think, right? Yeah, to San
• 2:25:01
  Speaker 1: Diego State, which doesn't look that good, but you can
• 2:25:03
  Speaker 1: see why they lost that game. Fresno had a huge
• 2:25:07
  Speaker 1: game against Boise the week before that and played them
• 2:25:11
  Speaker 1: to within seven points. I think they got caught in
• 2:25:14
  Speaker 1: a hangover spot. I called it out on the show.
• 2:25:15
  Speaker 1: I liked San Diego State to cover in that game,
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 1: and Fresno lost the game as a pretty big favorite,
• 2:25:21
  Speaker 1: like a seven-point favorite, I think, or something in that game.
• 2:25:24
  Speaker 1: But again, it was an explainable loss because they were
• 2:25:26
  Speaker 1: coming off the huge Boise game, and they went into
• 2:25:29
  Speaker 1: a bye as well. So this is one of those
• 2:25:30
  Speaker 1: inverted bye situations where Oregon State went into the bye
• 2:25:33
  Speaker 1: on a very hot note. Fresno went to the bye
• 2:25:36
  Speaker 1: on an ugly note, losing as a favorite. So I
• 2:25:38
  Speaker 1: think the bye is way more advantageous for Fresno because
• 2:25:41
  Speaker 1: it can end their losing momentum here. So yeah, obviously
• 2:25:44
  Speaker 1: I like Fresno in this game. Fresno's also facing a
• 2:25:47
  Speaker 1: more difficult schedule, I would say, because they played Boise
• 2:25:51
  Speaker 1: and USC. I don't know. I think that's a little
• 2:25:53
  Speaker 1: bit more difficult than Houston and Texas Tech. Maybe it's
• 2:25:55
  Speaker 1: my anti-Big 12 bias, but I don't know. Oregon State
• 2:25:59
  Speaker 1: also has really faced an easy schedule since those couple
• 2:26:02
  Speaker 1: of games, whereas I think Fresno is more recently battle-tested
• 2:26:07
  Speaker 1: at the very least, even though their schedule has also
• 2:26:09
  Speaker 1: been soft as well aside from those two games. But yeah,
• 2:26:12
  Speaker 1: I like Fresno in this one. The inverted buy situation
• 2:26:16
  Speaker 1: is the handicap here. 75% of the tickets on Oregon State.
• 2:26:20
  Speaker 1: Oregon State's public, and of course, again, the public's going
• 2:26:22
  Speaker 1: to side with Oregon State because they love their offense.
• 2:26:24
  Speaker 1: Their offenses look really good, but I think Fresno is
• 2:26:27
  Speaker 1: the better defense here, getting points. I think that's the
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 1: way you want to look. You can fade the public
• 2:26:33
  Speaker 1: who's too in love with that offense. Again, 75% of tickets,
• 2:26:37
  Speaker 1: 57% of the cash in Oregon State. They're a 6, 6.5-point
• 2:26:40
  Speaker 1: favorite here. It's gone down a little bit. It did
• 2:26:42
  Speaker 1: not go up, even though the public is on that side.
• 2:26:45
  Speaker 1: So that should tell you something, too, that the real
• 2:26:47
  Speaker 1: money is on Fresno. I agree, even though it is
• 2:26:49
  Speaker 1: kind of a high total. I don't really love taking
• 2:26:52
  Speaker 1: points with a high total like that, but I would
• 2:26:55
  Speaker 1: lean towards Fresno in that one. That's it, man, finally.
• 2:26:59
  Speaker 1: End of the show. Another two and a half hour show.
• 2:27:02
  Speaker 1: Let's get it. Tomorrow we got four actual plays. They're
• 2:27:04
  Speaker 1: going to be on Maryland plus two and a half.
• 2:27:07
  Speaker 1: I know we're getting ugly here, man, but you can
• 2:27:08
  Speaker 1: go back and see my analysis. You know, and we
• 2:27:11
  Speaker 1: got some situations here. Rutgers plus 16 and a half.
• 2:27:15
  Speaker 1: Although what I'm saying is wait on both of these.
• 2:27:17
  Speaker 1: Wait to see if you can get the three on Maryland.
• 2:27:19
  Speaker 1: and wait to see if a 17 comes up for Rutgers.
• 2:27:22
  Speaker 1: I think the Maryland, you might be able to find
• 2:27:24
  Speaker 1: a three. Rutgers, I don't really expect it to hit 17,
• 2:27:27
  Speaker 1: but I still like these numbers too. Rutgers plus the
• 2:27:30
  Speaker 1: 16 and a half. Temple plus four and a half.
• 2:27:33
  Speaker 1: And Georgia Southern minus five and a half. Those are
• 2:27:36
  Speaker 1: going to be the four actual plays. And to reiterate
• 2:27:39
  Speaker 1: uh real quickly my stronger leans that I had were
• 2:27:42
  Speaker 1: Georgia minus the points I do like that one quite
• 2:27:44
  Speaker 1: a bit in the big game of the day um
• 2:27:48
  Speaker 1: let me see I liked Auburn plus the points uh
• 2:27:50
  Speaker 1: quite a bit as well And there was one real
• 2:27:54
  Speaker 1: ugly game somewhere in here. Oh, UTEP plus the points.
• 2:27:57
  Speaker 1: That was another one that I had a heavy lean
• 2:27:59
  Speaker 1: on towards UTEP. I think it was basically those three.
• 2:28:03
  Speaker 1: And then, you know, I mean, a couple of those
• 2:28:05
  Speaker 1: other ones. I mean, those are, I think, the three
• 2:28:07
  Speaker 1: strongest ones that I didn't put on the card, I
• 2:28:10
  Speaker 1: would say. And then... maybe even North Carolina after that. Um,
• 2:28:15
  Speaker 1: you know, so those would be the other stronger opinions
• 2:28:16
  Speaker 1: I have. That's going to do it. Um, whoa, my team,
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: the lighting for my TV that's over here, that's off screen,
• 2:28:22
  Speaker 1: you know, cause of the way that I set it
• 2:28:24
  Speaker 1: up vertically. And I was, um, messing with me now,
• 2:28:26
  Speaker 1: but now you guys can't see what I'm watching on
• 2:28:28
  Speaker 1: TV anymore.
• 2:28:29
  Speaker 4: It's porn.
• 2:28:30
  Speaker 1: No, it's not. It's a, whatever sports channel I have.
• 2:28:33
  Speaker 1: I think it was, uh, It looked like it was
• 2:28:36
  Speaker 1: some of the NBA stuff was on. I don't even
• 2:28:38
  Speaker 1: know what I have on. I think it was because
• 2:28:40
  Speaker 1: that's on ESPN tonight. I think that's what I have on. Anyway,
• 2:28:43
  Speaker 1: learned a ton on Twitter, learned a ton on Instagram.
• 2:28:46
  Speaker 1: Back on TikTok, sort of at least one post today
• 2:28:49
  Speaker 1: with my... Go watch my video. I argued for the
• 2:28:54
  Speaker 1: going for... What I think is the more simplified argument
• 2:28:58
  Speaker 1: for why... for why it should be obvious that going
• 2:29:02
  Speaker 1: for the two-point conversion when you cut it to eight
• 2:29:05
  Speaker 1: late in the game is the right move. Go watch it.
• 2:29:09
  Speaker 1: It's going to anger a lot of people if they
• 2:29:11
  Speaker 1: actually see it. People have really strong opinions on this.
• 2:29:13
  Speaker 1: I'm just telling you it is the right move, and
• 2:29:16
  Speaker 1: people are talking about it again because Carolina did it
• 2:29:18
  Speaker 1: the other day. It's still the right move, okay? And
• 2:29:22
  Speaker 1: I laid out why by simplifying all the math. Go
• 2:29:27
  Speaker 1: watch it. You'll see. Anyway, that's up on all those platforms.
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 1: Listen to this show, obviously. Like, subscribe, comment, all the
• 2:29:34
  Speaker 1: good things. You know, bump it up, pump it up, whatever.
• 2:29:37
  Speaker 1: Hype it up. Tell people about it. We're on audio
• 2:29:40
  Speaker 1: as well. Toadstool Sports are on all the platforms. Spreaker
• 2:29:45
  Speaker 1: helps me out the most, I think. But Spotify, Apple.
• 2:29:48
  Speaker 1: And go give it a review on the audio platforms
• 2:29:51
  Speaker 1: because that helps it get traction too. So give it
• 2:29:52
  Speaker 1: a good review. You know, if you like it at least.
• 2:29:56
  Speaker 1: You know, I'm not asking you to be dishonest. Maybe
• 2:29:58
  Speaker 1: you hate me. I don't know. We got some other
• 2:30:01
  Speaker 1: stuff that I do. Ukulele covers that are covered in
• 2:30:03
  Speaker 1: uke on YouTube. Patreon.com slash LearnToToad with some extra uke
• 2:30:07
  Speaker 1: stuff there. LoserCast. I almost said LearnToToad again. LoserCast every
• 2:30:11
  Speaker 1: Tuesday night. That's going to do it. It's late, man.
• 2:30:14
  Speaker 1: I don't know what I'm talking about anymore. Let's get
• 2:30:16
  Speaker 1: these wins. I'll be back in the morning and... You know,
• 2:30:20
  Speaker 1: there's going to be some hockey, obviously, to break down
• 2:30:22
  Speaker 1: and probably a few other things. WNBA finals game seven.
• 2:30:26
  Speaker 1: Don't know if that one's going to make the cut
• 2:30:28
  Speaker 1: for me or anything, but mostly hockey tomorrow, a little
• 2:30:30
  Speaker 1: bit of NBA. So if you come back in the morning,
• 2:30:33
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be talking about that stuff and then
• 2:30:34
  Speaker 1: do the final college market read. That's going to do
• 2:30:36
  Speaker 1: it for now. Happy Halloween, everybody. And yeah, have fun.
• 2:30:42
  Speaker 1: Be safe.
• 2:30:43
  Speaker 3: Peace.
• 2:30:46
  Speaker 5: If the dark starts talking, hand me the phone Let
• 2:30:51
  Speaker 5: somebody answer, let somebody know You do not have.
• 2:30:57
  Speaker 3: To lose this round alone Hold on, hold on, not
• 2:31:08
  Speaker 3: tonight Not now Hold on, hold on Let me pull
• 2:31:18
  Speaker 3: you out That bad luck fights hard But it don't.
• 2:31:27
  Speaker 5: Get the crown Hold on, hold on Stay with me now.
• 2:31:38
  Speaker 3: Hold on, hold on You're still here now guitar solo
• 2:32:03
  Speaker 1: Thank you.