Latest / Decision Desk HQ Podcast / Episode 29: Redistricting Chaos After Callais, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat

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Episode 29: Redistricting Chaos After Callais, with Nathaniel Rakich from Votebeat · Decision Desk HQ Podcast

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We are in a period of flux for redistricting that we've
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basically not seen in modern times.
0:05
SPEAKER_01: We're in kind of a perfect storm for redistricting.
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We've essentially moved to a situation where like the most
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Republican outcome of
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SPEAKER_00: all this would be something like a 16
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It is these southern Republican controlled states that
0:21
typically have one or two
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SPEAKER_01: solidly Democratic, Black-majority or at least Black-opportunity seats.
0:27
SPEAKER_01: And those are the ones that are initially getting dismantled.
0:43
SPEAKER_00: Welcome to the Decision Desk HQ podcast.
0:45
I'm your host,
0:46
Geoffrey Skelley,
0:47
the Chief Elections Analyst here at DDHQ.
0:50
SPEAKER_00: Last week,
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the Supreme Court of the United States issued a much
0:53
anticipated ruling in the case
0:55
SPEAKER_00: Louisiana vs.
0:56
SPEAKER_00: Callais.
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The decision weakens the power of the Voting Rights Act by
1:00
narrowing the ability to
1:01
SPEAKER_00: use it to make claims that a political map is racially discriminatory.
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SPEAKER_00: As we have discussed previously,
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SPEAKER_00: the near-term impact from such a ruling would likely bring on a wave of
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redistricting across the mostly Republican-controlled states in
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the South.
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Those states are home to many majority-Black and
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Democratic-leaning seats that may
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SPEAKER_00: no longer have VRA protections.
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SPEAKER_00: And of course, that's exactly what has played out in the past week.
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SPEAKER_00: We're recording this on Wednesday, May 6th, so a week from the decision.
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SPEAKER_00: And in that time,
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Alabama,
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SPEAKER_00: Louisiana,
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SPEAKER_00: Tennessee,
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SPEAKER_00: potentially South Carolina,
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SPEAKER_00: are all now at various stages of transition.
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And Democrats can't necessarily count on Virginia's recent
1:39
redistricting vote to
1:40
come to fruition as the state Supreme Court there has still not
1:43
released a
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SPEAKER_00: decision.
2:00
SPEAKER_00: Joining me to dig into all of this,
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SPEAKER_00: and there's a lot,
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SPEAKER_00: is Nathaniel Rakich,
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SPEAKER_00: the managing editor of VoteBeat.
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Nathaniel has already come on the show a couple times to talk
2:09
about redistricting
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SPEAKER_00: in the past few months,
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SPEAKER_00: so he's pretty much our redistricting correspondent now.
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SPEAKER_00: We're going to talk about
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The immediate ramifications for all this redistricting when
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we're thinking about
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SPEAKER_00: the 2026 midterms in terms of the partisan shakeup that's ahead.
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But we also want to talk a little bit about the larger long
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term implications and
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SPEAKER_00: the broader question,
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SPEAKER_00: will the redistricting wars ever end?
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SPEAKER_00: So with that, Nathaniel, welcome back to Decision Desk HQ podcast.
2:35
howdy Geoffrey thanks for having me howdy to to all the readers
2:39
and uh listeners out
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there I guess nobody reads a podcast so uh viewers and there is
2:43
a transcript you
2:44
know people can find the truth there you go all right uh so if
2:48
they want to do that
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SPEAKER_00: please please do uh
2:51
so yeah you know I you had a really you've had a you over beat
2:55
vote be you and some
2:57
of the others on the vote be team have put together a lot of
3:00
good sort of quick
3:01
reaction work and so I guess you know there are a lot of
3:06
different places we could
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SPEAKER_00: start but I guess I was going to start with sort of the the the
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The fact that we are in a period of flux for redistricting that
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we've basically not
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SPEAKER_00: seen in modern times.
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SPEAKER_00: And I was kind of curious for your thoughts.
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I was going to bring up a chart here showing precisely this
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point that it's kind of
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SPEAKER_00: an unparalleled situation.
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SPEAKER_00: And so,
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you know,
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SPEAKER_00: since the 1960s,
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SPEAKER_00: when we had the decisions that established one vote,
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one person,
3:38
SPEAKER_00: one vote,
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SPEAKER_00: and thus made it much more
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SPEAKER_00: Made districts much more equal in population such that you didn't have
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SPEAKER_00: malapportionment in the way that we had before then.
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And you had much more regular redistricting cycles after each
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decennial census.
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We have not seen this sort of voluntary redistricting and was
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already started.
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And then,
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you know,
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it seems like the Callais decision is just going to bring on
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more of it.
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SPEAKER_01: Right, exactly.
4:05
We're in kind of a perfect storm for redistricting in that
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there was already this
4:10
push even before the Supreme Court's decision to redraw maps
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for political gain,
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SPEAKER_01: started by Donald Trump pushing Texas legislators to redraw that map.
4:21
SPEAKER_01: followed by Missouri and North Carolina.
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And then Democrats,
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SPEAKER_01: of course,
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SPEAKER_01: retaliated by passing new maps in California and Virginia,
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which largely wiped out the Republican edge that they had
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gained from their states.
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SPEAKER_01: But then on top of all that, you had this Supreme Court decision that
4:37
SPEAKER_01: Basically,
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SPEAKER_01: this is going to be tested in court,
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but I think the interpretation that certainly Republican
4:44
legislatures and also I
4:46
would also agree with this interpretation is that it basically
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gives them the
4:50
SPEAKER_01: ability to draw districts without
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SPEAKER_01: worrying about the traditional protections of the Voting Rights Act,
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SPEAKER_01: which is to say creating districts for non-white groups,
5:01
SPEAKER_01: minority groups to elect candidates of their choice.
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SPEAKER_01: And so, you know, this decision came down at really kind of an awkward
5:08
SPEAKER_01: The case was argued back in the fall, right?
5:14
SPEAKER_01: We could have gotten a decision as early as January.
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And if it had happened in January,
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then states would have had plenty of time to react to it.
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SPEAKER_01: They could have drawn
5:24
SPEAKER_01: You know, there wouldn't be a ton of chaos with the primaries and such.
5:29
SPEAKER_01: And everything would have been,
5:30
SPEAKER_01: you know,
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fine,
5:31
SPEAKER_01: maybe not for,
5:32
you know,
5:32
Democrats,
5:32
SPEAKER_01: certainly,
5:33
SPEAKER_01: but from a partisan standpoint,
5:34
SPEAKER_01: but from an election administration standpoint,
5:36
SPEAKER_01: it would have been doable.
5:38
SPEAKER_01: Alternatively, when that didn't happen in January
5:41
SPEAKER_01: I, along with many other people, were assuming that, OK, this is just
5:44
SPEAKER_01: going to go until the very end of the Supreme Court's term, right?
5:47
SPEAKER_01: As they often do, they drop particularly controversial or consequential
5:51
SPEAKER_01: decisions at the end of June, early July
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and at that point it would have very clearly been too late to
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do redistricting
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instead you got this decision in late April which was early
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enough that states were
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able to reopen the question of whether they want to redistrict
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but late enough that
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SPEAKER_01: it's causing a significant
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SPEAKER_01: Cousins
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SPEAKER_01: For people who had already cast absentee ballots,
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SPEAKER_01: thousands of those ballots have now been,
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SPEAKER_01: or at least the House race portion,
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SPEAKER_01: their votes in the House races are now just not going to be counted,
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SPEAKER_01: which they didn't know about.
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And that's to say nothing of kind of the impact on election
6:39
officials having to
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SPEAKER_01: hold two different elections and scrambling and educating voters.
6:43
SPEAKER_01: So it's just kind of a mess.
6:46
SPEAKER_00: Yes, I think mess is the appropriate word for it.
6:50
SPEAKER_00: Just to sort of talk for a moment here.
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SPEAKER_00: So at this point about the chart that I'm showing on screen here,
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but essentially we have six states that I am sort of including
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in the voluntary
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SPEAKER_00: category.
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SPEAKER_00: And so, you mentioned those.
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You've got,
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of course,
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Texas,
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California,
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Florida now,
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Missouri,
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North Carolina,
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and Virginia.
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SPEAKER_00: And then Louisiana's
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SPEAKER_00: move to redistrict is going to be prompted by a court decision.
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SPEAKER_00: It's just kind of the timing of it is awkward.
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And there was the potential that they might not have acted if
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it had been if the
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SPEAKER_00: decision had come a little later,
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SPEAKER_00: they might not have been in a position to act.
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SPEAKER_00: But they are trying to
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SPEAKER_00: to implement a new map instead.
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SPEAKER_00: Ohio,
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SPEAKER_00: I should mention,
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and Utah have had maps that were sort of required either by a
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court decision in
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SPEAKER_00: Utah or by the redistricting rules in Ohio.
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But now you've got this potential addition of at least four
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states that that I
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SPEAKER_00: mean,
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SPEAKER_00: that includes Louisiana,
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SPEAKER_00: which is seems likely to redraw,
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SPEAKER_00: I would say it's like likely or possible.
7:56
And Alabama is looking to implement a new map or actually
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reimplement the old map,
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SPEAKER_00: essentially,
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SPEAKER_00: before they were required to draw a second majority minority district.
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And and just you end up with just so much more in flux as a
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result of all this.
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Right exactly Tennessee and then South Carolina as you
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mentioned you know the other
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ones but it's also it's very up in the air you know there were
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some like the news
8:21
here has been changing by the day you know we are recording
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this as Geoffrey
8:25
mentioned on Wednesday and you know by the time we publish yeah
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like is this may
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not be you know that some new states may have joined the fray
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or old states would
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have jumped out but so like for instance Alabama immediately
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after the Callais
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SPEAKER_01: decision was like no we're not going to redraw like you
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The governor Kay Ivey correctly noted that a court has said
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that their current map,
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SPEAKER_01: the one that elects two Democrats and two Black representatives,
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SPEAKER_01: has to stay in place through the 2030 census.
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SPEAKER_01: They can't do anything until a court
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lifts that order which they may very well do now in the wake of
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the Callais decision
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essentially saying that maps like that are racial gerrymanders
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but they're stuck
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right now but so initially they were like oh we're not going to
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do anything and
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then later on they were like oh but now we're going to ask the
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Supreme Court
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SPEAKER_01: to lift that injunction and if that happens, yeah, we're going for it.
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SPEAKER_01: And same with South Carolina.
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SPEAKER_01: The governor initially said oh,
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SPEAKER_01: I don't think we're not going to do anything.
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but now the legislature,
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as we record this,
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is talking about adding a provision,
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SPEAKER_01: it's very inside baseball, to their sine die resolution saying that the
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legislature can come back to draw a map if they want to so like
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they're basically
9:35
they are talking about talking about drawing a new map but you
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know there's some
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SPEAKER_01: tentativeness there the one state that does
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The state that has seemed to have said we're not going to do
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this is Georgia.
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Brian Kemp of course a more moderate or at least kind of like
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institutionalist
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SPEAKER_01: Republican governor.
9:56
SPEAKER_01: The governor has said, we're not going to redraw this for 2026.
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SPEAKER_01: Our primary is coming up.
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SPEAKER_01: I believe it's May 19.
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SPEAKER_01: Their early voting has also just started.
10:03
SPEAKER_00: Exactly.
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Yes.
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SPEAKER_01: But and and so,
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you know,
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SPEAKER_01: they've said we might do this later for 2028,
10:10
SPEAKER_01: but but we're not going to do this right now.
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SPEAKER_01: But yeah,
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SPEAKER_01: it's basically been the news has been drinking from a fire hose from a
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SPEAKER_01: redistricting perspective.
10:20
Yeah,
10:20
and obviously from the standpoint of sort of the partisan
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consequences here,
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SPEAKER_00: you're talking about,
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SPEAKER_00: obviously,
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SPEAKER_00: some heavily Democratic seats that are,
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SPEAKER_00: if these maps come to pass,
10:33
SPEAKER_00: as expected in most,
10:34
SPEAKER_00: if not all cases,
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this will mean Republican gains in those states if the maps are
10:39
used in 2026.
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SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, it's sort of caused a reconsideration.
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SPEAKER_00: And I'm going to bring up another chart here of sort of what, what, what,
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what's the redistricting arithmetic if you will now you know I
10:54
would welcome
10:56
quibbles with some of my my numbers here but this is just sort
10:59
of my back of the
11:00
envelope figuring and sort of cautious outlook and cautious
11:06
outlook you know in
11:07
some cases I think there's reasons to believe that in a blue
11:10
leaning midterm cycle
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SPEAKER_00: you know California is going to get
11:14
all five of the seats that they're targeting and maybe Texas
11:17
only gets two or three
11:18
of the Democratic seats that they're targeting because things
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just don't go quite
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SPEAKER_00: as well as they would in a more neutral electoral environment.
11:25
SPEAKER_00: But all told,
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we've essentially moved from a situation where a previous
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version of this chart I
11:30
SPEAKER_00: had more or less had like
11:33
Roughly a very very small net gain for Democrats maybe or a
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small net gain for
11:37
Republicans at various iterations as the sort of cautious
11:40
outlook and the most
11:42
Republican like leaning outcome versus most Democratic leaning
11:44
outcome were
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SPEAKER_00: somewhat similar you
11:47
You know,
11:47
sort of mid to high single digits or high single digits for
11:51
each party.
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SPEAKER_00: But now,
11:53
SPEAKER_00: you know,
11:54
SPEAKER_00: for folks who can't see this,
11:55
SPEAKER_00: who are just listening,
11:56
we've essentially moved to a situation where like the most
11:58
Republican outcome of
12:00
SPEAKER_00: all this would be something like,
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SPEAKER_00: a 16 seat gain from redistricting for Republicans.
12:06
SPEAKER_00: Now,
12:07
again,
12:07
SPEAKER_00: because I think of the midterm environment,
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SPEAKER_00: that's not going to play out that way,
12:11
but it is worth noting that because that outcome could be more
12:14
of a presidential
12:15
SPEAKER_00: election cycle sort of shift.
12:17
and also if some further changes happen in the states that are
12:20
considering
12:21
redrawing like Louisiana is talking about keeping one district
12:25
the Democrats would
12:26
be in a position to win but maybe they get rid of it you know
12:28
before 2028 kind of
12:30
SPEAKER_00: situation but at this point even
12:32
my cautious outlook is a small gain for republicans from all
12:35
this now again it
12:37
might be roughly neutral in a midterm year but that is now I
12:43
would say a pretty you
12:45
know a pretty pretty notable thing for republicans even if it
12:47
doesn't save their
12:48
house majority it does I think limit the upside for democrats
12:52
in the midterm right
12:54
SPEAKER_01: right for sure um yeah I think that
12:58
You know,
12:58
SPEAKER_01: as we mentioned,
13:00
SPEAKER_01: it was basically a wash between Democrats and Republicans,
13:03
SPEAKER_01: even through Florida.
13:04
I think once the Virginia referendum passed,
13:07
Democrats were pretty clearly ahead on the ledger.
13:10
SPEAKER_01: Then Florida basically did the opposite of Virginia.
13:13
SPEAKER_01: And there had been kind of a
13:15
you know like a sick elegance to this whole thing where like
13:18
yes Texas passed a map
13:20
that was you know and like basically designed to gain three to
13:22
five seats for
13:23
Republicans and then California passed a map that was designed
13:26
to get three to five
13:27
SPEAKER_01: seats for Democrats which I think was very purposeful so
13:30
Similarly,
13:30
SPEAKER_01: the Florida map,
13:31
SPEAKER_01: I think,
13:32
SPEAKER_01: very neatly kind of was perhaps designed,
13:34
SPEAKER_01: but certainly had the effect of neutralizing the Virginia redraw.
13:40
But this post-Callais batch of redistricting that we're seeing
13:44
is basically all
13:45
SPEAKER_01: going to benefit Republicans,
13:47
SPEAKER_01: Democrats.
13:49
SPEAKER_01: I certainly haven't seen any chatter,
13:51
SPEAKER_01: and I don't believe it is feasible in any legal or practical way.
13:55
um you know I,
13:56
this redistricting cycle has made me say never you know has led
13:58
me to
13:59
don't say never never say never never rule anything out but um
14:03
but Democratic
14:04
states you know even though places like you know Illinois could
14:08
theoretically
14:09
especially now that they are theoretically freed from the need
14:12
to draw like kind of
14:14
more minority opportunity districts um could theoretically
14:18
gerrymander more but i
14:19
SPEAKER_01: think that's going to be more of a 2028 decision for those places um
14:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we'll get to that.
14:24
SPEAKER_00: I want to talk about logic.
14:25
Right.
14:25
Exactly.
14:25
SPEAKER_00: Sorry.
14:26
Yeah.
14:26
SPEAKER_00: But in terms of the immediate things,
14:29
SPEAKER_01: as you as you point out,
14:30
it is these Southern Republican controlled states that
14:34
typically have one or two
14:36
SPEAKER_01: like solidly Democratic
14:38
Yeah,
14:38
and I think it is just worth reiterating,
14:40
if Democrats are ahead by about
15:00
SPEAKER_00: Five points in the generic ballot right now.
15:02
Right.
15:02
SPEAKER_00: And, you know, who knows exactly where that's going to end up.
15:05
But,
15:05
you know,
15:05
I think in a world where President Trump's approval rating is
15:08
now dipped a hair
15:09
SPEAKER_00: below 40 percent in the Decision Desk HQ average,
15:13
you know,
15:13
SPEAKER_00: you're looking at an environment where
15:15
We're Democrats should do well in the in the House,
15:18
which is a national election.
15:19
The Senate's a different story because it depends in part which
15:20
seats are up.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: And we know it's a Republican, a favorable Republican map in the Senate.
15:26
SPEAKER_00: But in the House with all 435 seats on the ballot, that does produce.
15:30
SPEAKER_00: And so knowing that democrats are
15:45
SPEAKER_00: Republicans currently only have,
15:46
SPEAKER_00: you know,
15:47
essentially they can't lose more than two seats to hold on to
15:51
the majority in the
15:52
House if the House is full and you're not if you count the
15:54
vacancies with the party
15:55
SPEAKER_00: that previously held them,
15:57
you're in a situation where Democrats are still favorites to
15:59
take back the House
16:00
SPEAKER_00: pretty significantly.
16:02
However,
16:02
SPEAKER_00: it again,
16:04
I think does reduce sort of the potential ceiling for Democrats
16:09
and it will have
16:11
SPEAKER_00: perhaps longer term implications,
16:14
you know,
16:14
SPEAKER_00: that that may force Democrats in blue cities.
16:18
I thought it would actually be helpful for folks to just talk a
16:21
little bit about a
16:23
SPEAKER_00: few of these states,
16:26
SPEAKER_00: just sort of what's happened,
16:28
SPEAKER_00: what looks to be on the cards.
16:32
SPEAKER_00: And I thought we'd start with Louisiana,
16:33
SPEAKER_00: which this decision officially ruled the map as unconstitutional.
16:39
and so currently Louisiana,
16:41
six congressional districts,
16:42
two of them are majority
16:43
SPEAKER_00: Black seats one around mostly around New Orleans and and sort of lower
16:50
Louisiana and then the other stretches from outside of Baton
16:53
Rouge all the way
16:54
up into the northwest corner of the state,
16:56
which was drawn...
16:57
you know Louisiana
16:59
Republicans,
17:00
it was interesting they they could have drawn a different
17:02
looking
17:03
SPEAKER_00: majority Black seat that would have been
17:06
SPEAKER_00: much less of a diagonal and been comparatively compact.
17:10
But they didn't want to draw out Julia Letlow,
17:13
who was in that seat,
17:13
a Republican.
17:14
SPEAKER_00: Now she's running for U.S. Senate.
17:15
SPEAKER_00: And they did want to draw out Garrett Graves,
17:18
who ended up being the Republican who got the short end of the
17:20
stick on that
17:21
SPEAKER_00: redraw.
17:22
SPEAKER_00: And then as things have developed,
17:24
that was the map that ends up leading to the weakening of the
17:27
Voting Rights Act.
17:28
SPEAKER_00: And so it's been interesting.
17:30
SPEAKER_00: But it does sound like Louisiana Republicans are talking at least
17:35
somewhat about drawing a Baton Rouge centered district that
17:39
would be a Democratic
17:40
SPEAKER_00: vote sink of sorts instead of one in New Orleans,
17:43
which,
17:43
SPEAKER_00: of course,
17:44
is where the most Democratic voters and Black voters are in the
17:47
state of Louisiana.
17:48
So I was curious for your response on that,
17:50
because I was a little bit like,
17:51
oh.
17:52
Interesting.
17:52
SPEAKER_01: No, I agree.
17:53
SPEAKER_01: I was also surprised,
17:56
although,
17:56
you know,
17:56
SPEAKER_01: it turns out there are good parochial reasons for that.
17:58
SPEAKER_01: But yeah.
17:59
SPEAKER_00: Yes, that's like the politics is interesting.
18:02
Yeah, exactly.
18:02
But yeah,
18:03
but the New Orleans based Democratic seat,
18:05
that's the one with the history in
18:07
SPEAKER_01: In Louisiana, it's much more kind of long tenured.
18:11
SPEAKER_01: The Baton Rouge plus district,
18:14
the Baton Rouge slash district is the new one that was created
18:17
a couple years ago
18:19
SPEAKER_01: when initially the Supreme Court upheld the vote.
18:22
SPEAKER_01: voting rights act in that one was about the Alabama map.
18:26
So Alabama and Louisiana have been kind of like a pairing in
18:29
this for a few years.
18:31
SPEAKER_01: They've been kind of going through it together.
18:33
SPEAKER_01: But when the Supreme Court ordered Alabama to draw
18:37
SPEAKER_01: An additional Black district in back in 2023.
18:40
That ruling effectively also applied to Louisiana because the
18:43
circumstances on the
18:44
SPEAKER_01: ground were very similar.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: And that was the district that was added.
18:48
But so it is interesting that they're subtracting the longer
18:50
tenure district,
18:51
the one with more
18:52
SPEAKER_01: That's why I call it a slash
19:21
it's a slash diagonal a slash yeah and fascinating sorry not
19:26
the interruption but a
19:27
little bit of history here is that fields in the 1990s held
19:31
right after when when
19:33
SPEAKER_00: essentially due to a number of court rulings and the first
19:36
Bush administration's Justice Department essentially put states
19:40
in the South in a
19:41
position where they were going to have to more intentionally
19:43
draw districts that
19:44
SPEAKER_00: were majority minority.
19:45
SPEAKER_00: And so there was a big wave of majority Black seats drawn in the South,
19:49
many that tested sort of the limits of the Voting Rights Act
19:52
and what it meant to
19:53
SPEAKER_00: do sort of redistricting and considering race in that process,
19:56
SPEAKER_00: because a lot of them were very,
19:57
SPEAKER_00: very ugly seats.
19:58
But one of the seats that fields for a spell represented looked
20:01
very similar to this.
20:04
SPEAKER_00: In the 1990s,
20:05
SPEAKER_00: he then that district then was undone eventually,
20:08
but due to some Supreme Court rulings and they and the district
20:10
went away and he
20:11
SPEAKER_00: ran for governor and lost.
20:13
And then he came back nearly two decades later and won a
20:16
district that looked very similar.
20:17
SPEAKER_00: It was a funny.
20:18
a funny set of events what's old is new again exactly but but
20:24
yeah but so it is
20:25
interesting in that like in Louisiana at least and this has
20:28
been the case with
20:29
redistricting for a long time and these norms just kind of
20:31
started to break down I
20:33
mean they've been breaking down for a while but they really
20:35
broke down this cycle
20:36
SPEAKER_01: but
20:38
SPEAKER_01: The local parochial considerations,
20:40
SPEAKER_01: who's allies with who,
20:42
SPEAKER_01: which incumbents don't want to get their districts carved up,
20:45
SPEAKER_01: those play a pretty big role in redistricting.
20:48
SPEAKER_01: Right there in the 2021 round of redistricting,
20:50
there were a lot of cases where the party in charge could have
20:53
gone further to get
20:57
SPEAKER_01: more seats for themselves,
20:58
SPEAKER_01: but they decided not to for these parochial reasons.
21:00
SPEAKER_01: And so...
21:01
SPEAKER_01: Similarly, Louisiana could theoretically draw a 6-0 Republican map.
21:06
SPEAKER_01: They could get rid of both Democratic-held seats,
21:09
SPEAKER_01: but it seems like that is not at least Landry's preference.
21:14
SPEAKER_01: He's had a quote today, I believe.
21:15
that was basically like we want to maintain a map that is at
21:19
least defensible you
21:21
know and I presumably I think the translation of that is let's
21:25
draw a 5-1 map you
21:26
know that's what we had for a long time you know like a 6-0 map
21:30
might be might be
21:32
pushing our luck a little bit so so yeah so that seems to be
21:34
the direction that
21:36
SPEAKER_01: they are going for for those kind of like buddy buddy political reasons
21:42
Yeah.
21:42
And so the loser in this,
21:43
if this is the direction that they go,
21:46
will be Troy Carter.
21:51
SPEAKER_00: Sorry, I was blanking on his name for a second.
21:53
SPEAKER_00: The congressman from the New Orleans based seat.
21:56
And it would obviously involve some sort of map that that
21:59
cracks New Orleans.
22:01
SPEAKER_00: And I actually because I was just curious, how do you do this?
22:06
I uh I drew uh uh so so for folks at home just using Dave's
22:11
redistricting app to
22:12
sort of see all the seats this is the current map you've got
22:15
the two in blue the
22:16
the sixth district which is the slash district toward from the
22:19
center to the
22:20
northwest of the state and then the second down to New Orleans
22:23
uh and over a little
22:25
bit still in sort of the lower part of Louisiana uh and then if
22:29
you were to get rid
22:30
SPEAKER_00: of
22:32
The second you have to crack Orleans Parish where New Orleans
22:35
is across at least a
22:37
couple districts if not three because again it's where the most
22:40
Democratic voters
22:41
are in the state including really the only significant probably
22:44
population of white
22:45
SPEAKER_00: Democratic voters as well.
22:46
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, good point.
22:48
SPEAKER_00: And possibly a few in Baton Rouge, but mostly in New Orleans.
22:52
SPEAKER_00: And so from the perspective of how do you do this?
22:54
SPEAKER_00: Okay,
22:55
well,
22:55
maybe it's something like this where you draw a seat centered
23:00
on Baton Rouge that
23:01
reaches up.
23:01
grabs a little bit of like Alexandria and then moving to the
23:05
center and northern
23:08
part of Louisiana and then reaches down to just outside of New
23:11
Orleans maybe and
23:13
then you crack New Orleans and have sort of two sort of 40-ish
23:16
percent 41 percent
23:18
SPEAKER_00: Harris seats splitting Orleans Parish in half.
23:22
SPEAKER_00: You can do this.
23:23
SPEAKER_00: In fact,
23:24
SPEAKER_00: to your point,
23:25
SPEAKER_00: you could draw a 6-0 map that essentially does this,
23:27
SPEAKER_00: just cracking Orleans Parish more or less across three seats.
23:33
SPEAKER_00: And so it's very doable.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: It just was a surprise to me.
23:37
And it does really reflect the fact that parochial politics can
23:41
still come into all of this.
23:43
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
23:44
um well hey let's we don't have to linger in Louisiana forever
23:47
but that was sort of
23:48
the first domino um because it was in the direct case uh the
23:53
Callais case was
23:54
dealing right this was the only map I should be clear this is
23:57
the only map that was
23:58
SPEAKER_01: actually struck down by the decision
24:00
The other states that we're about to talk about Are kind of
24:03
acting on Their hands
24:06
SPEAKER_01: have been Unbound Unbound,
24:11
right,
24:11
exactly Untied But they are under no legal obligation To redraw
24:17
their maps
24:18
SPEAKER_00: So yeah, I was going to say, let's talk about Alabama for a second.
24:21
So Alabama had a map that was a 6-1 Republican map with a
24:28
majority Black seat.
24:32
SPEAKER_00: And then they had to draw before
24:33
the 2024 election a map that then included this seat which i'm
24:37
now going to share
24:38
SPEAKER_00: which is currently control uh held by Shomari Figures, the Democratic
24:44
representative um so it's a seat that basically runs from from
24:47
parts of mob
24:49
Mobile down in the southwest corner of the state over into
24:51
Montgomery all very much
24:53
along the Black Belt,
24:55
the historical Black Belt,
24:56
which is reference to the soil
24:57
actually of Alabama and where,
24:58
you know,
24:58
for obvious historical reasons in the state
25:03
in the Deep South of there is a sizable Black population and so
25:06
that that was ended
25:08
up being the district they drew this would be unwound it sounds
25:11
like in the Alabama
25:12
plan and they would try to go back to actually the map that
25:16
they used in 2022 and
25:19
so that would still preserve the 7th district which is at least
25:24
the former version
25:25
of the 7th district that's held by Terri Sewell but then you
25:30
know again it gets
25:31
SPEAKER_00: into conversation of you know where could they go from there
25:34
Right.
25:34
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, exactly.
25:36
SPEAKER_01: So I think it's important to be precise when we're talking about this.
25:40
People have talked about Alabama's convening a special session
25:43
to redraw its map.
25:44
SPEAKER_01: No, that's not quite true.
25:46
SPEAKER_01: What they're doing is they're petitioning the court to allow them
25:48
SPEAKER_01: To go back to the old map.
25:51
SPEAKER_01: They have not, even though theoretically,
25:53
if the court says that they are unbound,
25:56
they could draw a 7-0 map,
25:57
again,
25:58
SPEAKER_01: but it sounds like that's not the current plan.
26:00
SPEAKER_01: Again, things are subject to change,
26:02
SPEAKER_01: it sounds like they would be content to use the old map
26:06
SPEAKER_01: but what they're currently talking about
26:09
SPEAKER_01: in the special session that began on Monday
26:12
SPEAKER_01: Is basically passing a contingent primary date which would say —
26:17
SPEAKER_01: Because they're due up the
26:20
SPEAKER_00: That's the regular primary date in Alabama.
26:23
SPEAKER_01: With a runoff in June.
26:24
SPEAKER_01: A lot of things are happening.
26:27
SPEAKER_01: Exactly.
26:28
And so they basically are planning to pass legislation that
26:31
would say if a court
26:33
SPEAKER_01: lets us go back to the old 6-1 map,
26:36
then we would move the primary just for the affected districts
26:41
to some date in the
26:42
future um and so you know that would uh obviously you know
26:47
allow them I mean they
26:48
would have to hold two elections and you know but they're going
26:50
ahead with the four
26:51
potentially you know with the runoff rules in Alabama no so
26:55
interestingly they um
26:57
SPEAKER_00: the rescheduled primary would not have runoffs
27:01
You know,
27:01
North Carolina did something like this in the 2016 cycle where
27:06
they were forced by
27:07
SPEAKER_00: a court ruling to redraw the congressional map and Republican controlled
27:13
legislature redrew the congressional map and they delayed the
27:16
primary to June and
27:17
SPEAKER_00: got rid.
27:18
Essentially,
27:18
that was actually sort of the beginning of the end of the
27:20
runoff rules as we knew
27:21
them in North Carolina because they've now lowered the
27:23
threshold to like 30
27:24
SPEAKER_00: percent.
27:25
SPEAKER_00: It hardly ever happens.
27:27
Right yeah exactly so yes so if this does happen then there
27:30
would be a rerun of the
27:31
primaries just in the affected districts and there would not be
27:34
a runoff if
27:38
SPEAKER_01: somebody gets below 50%.
27:39
Yeah just so people can sort of see so I showed you the second
27:43
district in our
27:45
votes portal here this is the current overall map using days
27:49
redistricting app and
27:51
then what it would do is it would essentially keep that seventh
27:54
district that is
27:55
SPEAKER_00: also majority Black
27:57
more or less similar to how it was before and so it would
28:03
revert to this the map
28:06
that they used in 2022 before they were forced to redraw so
28:10
you'd still have this
28:11
SPEAKER_00: majority Black
28:12
one heavily Democratic seat that kind of stretches from
28:15
Birmingham down to parts of
28:16
the Black Belt but then it would restore the old Republican
28:20
leaning first and
28:21
SPEAKER_00: second districts so yeah so that's sort of
28:27
SPEAKER_00: The shift there.
28:29
SPEAKER_00: From there,
28:30
you've got the big news today here on Wednesday is that we got
28:33
a draft map of what
28:35
SPEAKER_00: things could look like in Tennessee.
28:38
SPEAKER_00: The Republican controlled legislature there put out a draft map.
28:42
SPEAKER_00: That would essentially,
28:44
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
28:45
SPEAKER_00: I was just looking at the numbers,
28:47
it essentially would not have a single district that Trump won
28:50
less than 59% of the
28:51
SPEAKER_00: vote in in 2024.
28:52
So it's very surgical,
28:54
to use a word that my colleague Eric Cunningham appropriately
28:57
used.
28:58
SPEAKER_00: It is a very, very surgical gerrymander.
29:03
SPEAKER_00: Assuming they do pass it,
29:07
SPEAKER_00: the main upshot is that it would undo this district held by Steve Cohen,
29:11
SPEAKER_00: who is a white Democrat.
29:12
white Jewish Democrat who holds a majority Black seat,
29:15
the one Democratic seat
29:16
SPEAKER_00: left in Tennessee that is that is very centered on Memphis, which has
29:21
a very large Black population it would crack this area across
29:25
three seats and would
29:28
SPEAKER_00: produce a 9-0 map instead of an 8-1 map as currently constructed
29:34
yeah um do you have a an image of the of the proposed map by
29:37
any chance oh yes oh
29:38
yeah yeah yeah I think that's a that's a good one I think
29:42
certainly obviously the
29:43
the partisan upshot here is is clear um and this is Tennessee
29:46
is the state that
29:47
SPEAKER_01: probably would have the easiest time with this
29:51
SPEAKER_01: Because their primary isn't until August, they don't have runoffs
29:55
SPEAKER_01: Thursday primary!
29:57
SPEAKER_00: The only Thursday primary.
29:59
SPEAKER_00: I'm required to mention that.
30:00
SPEAKER_01: Exactly, by law, we have to say that fun fact.
30:04
SPEAKER_01: And nobody really knows why they have it.
30:08
It's a mystery um but uh but yeah but whereas you know
30:11
Louisiana they they have no
30:13
choice they have to redistrict because of the supreme court
30:15
striking down their map
30:16
but it's causing chaos for their may primary similarly Alabama
30:19
has their hands
30:21
SPEAKER_01: currently tied by a court um
30:23
SPEAKER_01: But, you know, they're hoping to untie them.
30:25
SPEAKER_01: South Carolina, as we'll talk about, has its own issues.
30:27
But Tennessee is the one that seemed like the most obvious
30:31
candidate as soon as we
30:32
SPEAKER_01: got the Callais ruling.
30:34
The other interesting thing about this,
30:36
I think,
30:36
in addition to it kind of
30:38
SPEAKER_01: Kills Two Birds With One Stone, right?
30:39
SPEAKER_01: Because it gains a Republican seat in the ninth.
30:43
But it also probably rids Republicans of one of their more
30:48
troublesome members in
30:49
SPEAKER_01: Andy Ogles,
30:50
SPEAKER_01: who is the representative for the fifth district,
30:52
SPEAKER_01: who has been beset by a bunch of kind of,
30:54
SPEAKER_01: you know,
30:55
SPEAKER_01: George Santos-esque scandals about,
30:57
SPEAKER_01: you know,
30:58
SPEAKER_01: fabricating his or kind of like exaggerating his his resume.
31:02
and his 5th district really gets blown up highly reconfigured
31:05
as you can see here
31:06
the fifth district would now stretch from Memphis all the way
31:09
into the Nashville
31:10
suburbs yeah I've actually let me I threw up here this is the
31:14
current map yeah and
31:16
so the fifth is here very much it's kind of south,
31:17
takes in parts of Nashville and
31:19
then runs south of it and then it would it would still have a
31:23
little bit of that
31:24
SPEAKER_00: northwest of the state yeah
31:26
SPEAKER_00: But then it just goes all the way over here.
31:28
SPEAKER_00: So,
31:29
you know,
31:29
SPEAKER_00: I he might I mean,
31:30
SPEAKER_00: he could very well run for reelection,
31:32
SPEAKER_00: but he might have might have.
31:33
He might try.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: But I mean, he was already, you know, like pretty embattled.
31:38
SPEAKER_01: And if he has to run as essentially not an incumbent,
31:41
um like introducing himself to a bunch of new voters I don't
31:44
know I think he's
31:45
gonna have trouble in the yeah I think there was actually a
31:48
state senator who was
31:49
already from from Shelby County,
31:52
where Memphis is,
31:53
or that vicinity,
31:53
who has
31:54
SPEAKER_00: already like filed some sort of formal conflict of interest
31:58
SPEAKER_00: thing with the legislature
32:00
SPEAKER_00: I saw this flash up on Twitter so I don't remember the exact specifics.
32:02
But essentially,
32:04
I think there is some thought that this might be someone who
32:05
runs for that seat
32:06
SPEAKER_00: So there you go
32:10
SPEAKER_00: He was saying,
32:11
I'm not going to be voting on this legislation because it could
32:13
affect me or
32:14
SPEAKER_00: something.
32:15
Gotcha.
32:15
SPEAKER_00: Gotcha.
32:17
Yes.
32:17
SPEAKER_01: And we should make the point they just proposed this map today.
32:21
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, this is like an hour's old.
32:23
SPEAKER_01: It hasn't been passed, anything yet.
32:26
So we'll see.
32:26
SPEAKER_01: Obviously,
32:27
SPEAKER_01: because the legislature and governor in Tennessee are Republican,
32:32
SPEAKER_01: we expect some map to pass.
32:34
SPEAKER_01: Overwhelmingly.
32:36
SPEAKER_01: The Democratic district.
32:38
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, another interesting wrinkle here.
32:40
SPEAKER_01: It's not really a wrinkle,
32:41
but a fun fact is the Tennessee law currently prohibits
32:45
mid-decade redistricting.
32:47
SPEAKER_01: And so before they pass any maps,
32:49
SPEAKER_01: they have to repeal that law,
32:50
SPEAKER_01: which they are also they started the process of doing again today.
32:56
yeah and so it's not it's just a statute it's not a
32:58
constitutional yeah so there
33:00
you go it's a lot easier to do that if it's just a statute
33:03
rather than needing a
33:04
constitutional amendment and go through that that process which
33:08
often requires and
33:09
SPEAKER_00: especially in a lot of southern states
33:10
SPEAKER_00: You know, multiple votes.
33:12
There's no most other states do not have a method to put
33:14
something like that on the
33:15
ballot immediately because the legislature holds most of the
33:19
amending power.
33:20
SPEAKER_00: So,
33:21
SPEAKER_00: you know,
33:22
because we just saw that in Virginia in terms of how they went
33:24
about that just on
33:25
SPEAKER_00: the Democratic side.
33:26
SPEAKER_00: Well, hey, let's move over to South Carolina.
33:29
The last is sort of this quartet that I definitely wanted to
33:32
focus on before we
33:33
SPEAKER_00: talk about maybe some longer term consequences of all this.
33:37
And I'll pull up the overall map,
33:39
but I wanted to start out by just showing.
33:41
Jim Clyburn's 6th District which is actually I think barely not
33:45
majority Black
33:46
right now under these lines it's just plurality Black but this
33:50
historically Clyburn
33:51
has been in Congress since the 1992 election that's when he
33:53
first elected South
33:54
SPEAKER_00: Carolina drew a majority Black seat
33:56
SPEAKER_00: Back then, I think they only had six seats.
33:58
SPEAKER_00: So he was in the six.
34:00
SPEAKER_00: Now they have seven after some population growth.
34:03
SPEAKER_00: And it's the one majority Black seat.
34:06
SPEAKER_00: It's the one heavily Democratic seat.
34:07
There was a competitive seat in the Charleston area,
34:10
at least somewhat competitive.
34:11
it was redrawn it might actually be competitive again as
34:13
currently drawn we'll see
34:15
in a heavily democratic environment might be interesting the
34:19
first congressional
34:20
district that's Nancy Mesa's seat but she's running for
34:22
governor but nonetheless
34:23
SPEAKER_00: from the perspective of you know
34:26
this is a seat that takes in much of the Low Country of South
34:29
Carolina where there
34:30
is a sizable Black population parts of Charleston and North
34:33
Charleston also I think
34:35
downtown Charleston was added to the map in the most recent
34:37
redistricting cycle
34:38
SPEAKER_00: because again it's a source of
34:41
one of the few sources of white Democratic votes in the state
34:43
of South Carolina and
34:44
SPEAKER_00: then also parts of Columbia.
34:45
So it stretches up to Columbia,
34:46
which is also heavily Democratic in and around Richland County.
34:50
SPEAKER_00: So my father is actually from this vicinity of South Carolina originally.
34:56
Clarendon County just to shout that out because Clarendon
34:59
County is not getting
35:00
shout outs for much in this day and age there's not a lot there
35:04
it's very rural no
35:06
I mean it's very rural and so anyway it's this district now it
35:13
sounds like the
35:14
South Carolina legislature is at least opening the door to
35:16
potentially redrawing
35:19
SPEAKER_01: yeah this is I think the most uncertain well it's all kind of uncertain
35:25
But this is the one where of the three of the four states that
35:30
we have talked about
35:32
here in the south I think this is the one that I am not sure is
35:34
actually going to
35:35
happen because it does there's been a lot of tepidness from
35:41
people who are actually
35:42
SPEAKER_01: in charge of the process a lot of so
35:45
Trump has apparently been making calls,
35:47
been pushing South Carolina Republicans to redraw.
35:50
SPEAKER_01: He is allies with the governor, Henry McMaster.
35:54
Obviously,
35:54
we just saw the other night in Indiana,
35:56
the Republicans who resisted redistribution.
35:59
Ging there last year largely went down to defeat which I think
36:03
only kind of gives
36:04
more oomph to his you know like pushes and threats potentially
36:09
threats to to get
36:11
SPEAKER_01: them to redraw but McMaster has seemed cool on the
36:14
The idea,
36:15
he was like,
36:15
yeah,
36:15
I'm not sure if we're going to go up to that.
36:17
SPEAKER_01: Their primaries in June, mind you.
36:20
SPEAKER_01: And they have a quick turnaround on their runoff, too.
36:23
SPEAKER_00: It's like a couple weeks later.
36:25
SPEAKER_00: Some of these states have a month or a month and a half break.
36:28
SPEAKER_00: South Carolina, it's a two-week turnaround.
36:30
SPEAKER_00: Right.
36:31
SPEAKER_01: So they would have to move the primary as well.
36:33
And it's just something that a lot of the people in power in
36:37
South Carolina seem
36:38
SPEAKER_01: cool to,
36:39
SPEAKER_01: again,
36:40
SPEAKER_01: with the pressure from Trump,
36:42
SPEAKER_01: which has proven to be pretty strong,
36:45
I think.
36:45
you know it wouldn't surprise me if they end up caving but but
36:48
yeah but like I
36:49
mentioned before they are currently they are currently in the
36:51
regular legislative
36:52
session they are talking about adding something to the
36:56
adjournment resolution that
36:58
SPEAKER_01: says hey we reserve the right to talk
37:00
SPEAKER_01: to come back later and talk about redistricting if we want to.
37:05
SPEAKER_01: But they've basically said, this doesn't mean that we will be doing this.
37:10
SPEAKER_01: We won't necessarily come back to redraw.
37:12
SPEAKER_01: We're just kind of keeping our options open.
37:15
And so it'll be worth noting whether that kind of adjournment
37:18
resolution passes or
37:20
whether redistricting is included in the adjournment resolution
37:22
that eventually
37:23
SPEAKER_01: passes.
37:25
Yeah,
37:25
SPEAKER_00: so obviously,
37:26
SPEAKER_00: as you've pointed out,
37:27
SPEAKER_00: this is sort of the most speculative one at the moment.
37:32
SPEAKER_00: However,
37:33
SPEAKER_00: you know,
37:34
SPEAKER_00: given what we saw in Indiana,
37:37
SPEAKER_00: it seems like if you don't want to let this happen,
37:38
SPEAKER_00: definitely don't let it come to a vote.
37:40
Because if you're seen as voting against it,
37:42
oh boy,
37:42
that will get you in trouble.
37:44
SPEAKER_00: Because at the very least,
37:46
the eight state senators in Indiana who voted no and were
37:50
seeking re-election and
37:52
SPEAKER_00: were up for re-election,
37:53
I should know,
37:53
SPEAKER_00: only about half the Indiana Senate is up.
37:57
The eight who ran again,
37:59
who had voted no,
38:00
six of them lost their primaries.
38:03
SPEAKER_00: One, one, managed to win clearly.
38:05
SPEAKER_00: And then the other is in a three vote race as of the last number I saw.
38:09
SPEAKER_00: Three, just three.
38:10
SPEAKER_00: A literal count of three, not percentage, not anything like that.
38:14
And so that seems headed for a recount and it might be a little
38:17
bit before we know
38:18
SPEAKER_00: the outcome there.
38:19
SPEAKER_00: But nonetheless, a very clear signal of President Trump's continued sway.
38:25
SPEAKER_00: Yep, for sure.
38:50
Well,
38:50
SPEAKER_00: hey,
38:51
you know,
38:51
SPEAKER_00: we could obviously just keep speculating about stuff of the South,
38:54
SPEAKER_00: but let's speculate about stuff in the future,
38:56
SPEAKER_00: even more in the future.
38:58
SPEAKER_00: So in response to this,
38:59
you know,
38:59
SPEAKER_00: there was an Axios article that talked about,
39:02
okay,
39:02
SPEAKER_00: Democrats know that they are in a position where,
39:05
oh,
39:05
man,
39:05
SPEAKER_00: we got to potentially respond to this.
39:08
SPEAKER_00: We have the possibility that the Virginia map
39:11
Won't happen for Democrats because the state Supreme Court
39:14
there has still not
39:15
ruled on the challenges to the constitutionality of that whole
39:19
process and other
39:21
aspects of the process that brought about the constitutional
39:25
amendment vote.
39:26
SPEAKER_00: So it's it's very TBD.
39:29
SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of speculation,
39:30
SPEAKER_00: but I don't think there's really I just think we really don't know.
39:33
It is truly a highly uncertain situation in terms of how that
39:37
state Supreme Court will rule.
39:38
It's not as easy to break down the partisanship of that court
39:41
as some other ones.
39:43
SPEAKER_00: And and so and anyway, it's a little it's a little harder to read.
39:48
But obviously,
39:49
that would be bad for Democrats in the arithmetic we talked
39:51
about earlier.
39:52
SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
39:53
SPEAKER_00: But they're talking about, you know, New York.
39:57
SPEAKER_00: Run by Democrats passing a constitutional amendment that would change the
40:00
SPEAKER_00: redistricting process there.
40:01
Perhaps Colorado may have a ballot measure on the ballot this
40:04
year that that and I
40:06
SPEAKER_00: think it would take 55% in Colorado to do that.
40:10
Colorado is a state that has one of those higher thresholds for
40:12
I think certain
40:13
SPEAKER_00: kinds of amendments.
40:15
and uh but if it were to pass they could then redistrict ahead
40:19
of 2028 this is all
40:20
about 2028 and so I was curious actually for your thoughts on
40:24
on some of the i
40:25
guess you know this gets sort of it's a redistricting arms race
40:28
and it just keeps
40:29
keeps going right no exactly right this isn't going to end and
40:32
any state that
40:33
doesn't redistrict this year is going to redistrict next cycle
40:38
pretty much for sure
40:39
SPEAKER_01: um
40:41
like you know we're talking about yeah like South Carolina and
40:43
Alabama and and um
40:45
you know Georgia like you know we mentioned like um the
40:48
decision isn't whether to
40:49
redistrict it's when to redistrict um but definitely I think
40:53
that we the the kind
40:56
SPEAKER_01: of uh Pandora's box has been opened with regard to redistricting and
41:02
SPEAKER_01: They both sides see the other side trying to gain an edge where they can.
41:06
And so they're saying we have to fight back with every tool in
41:09
the toolbox.
41:10
SPEAKER_01: And so I think,
41:11
SPEAKER_01: yeah,
41:12
you're going to see especially a lot of the Democratic states
41:14
did have their hands
41:15
SPEAKER_01: tied because of the law.
41:17
SPEAKER_01: Independent redistricting commissions,
41:18
you know,
41:18
SPEAKER_01: California and Virginia,
41:20
you know,
41:20
SPEAKER_01: showed impressive hustle.
41:21
SPEAKER_01: You know,
41:22
SPEAKER_01: I'll give them that even if what they did was,
41:24
you know,
41:24
SPEAKER_01: obviously extreme partisan gerrymandering.
41:27
SPEAKER_01: But they were able to get that done for 2026.
41:29
SPEAKER_01: But like, right, all the states that you mentioned.
41:31
um you know are prime candidates to redraw in 2028 you know
41:35
Illinois um like
41:38
anywhere that you see a any any place where one party controls
41:44
or could control the
41:45
redistricting process if they you know were to repeal you know
41:47
which is a lot of
41:48
SPEAKER_01: states right um if they have any seats of the opposite party
41:54
I'm sure they are looking at how they could possibly redraw
41:58
that and the legal
41:59
SPEAKER_01: feasibility and legal and practical feasibility of that.
42:03
So,
42:03
you know,
42:03
SPEAKER_01: there are states like,
42:05
you know,
42:05
SPEAKER_01: Delaware,
42:06
SPEAKER_01: which has only one district,
42:07
SPEAKER_01: which is,
42:08
you know,
42:08
SPEAKER_01: mercifully going to avoid Vermont,
42:10
SPEAKER_00: where I am.
42:11
SPEAKER_00: There's nothing you can do in Vermont.
42:13
SPEAKER_01: There are states like Massachusetts.
42:14
SPEAKER_00: I haven't had two seats since I think the 19th century.
42:16
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, exactly.
42:18
SPEAKER_01: It's been a while.
42:19
SPEAKER_01: um there are states like Massachusetts or Arkansas that you know have a
42:23
congressional delegations entirely belonging to to the party in
42:26
power obviously
42:27
they're not going to redistrict but any of these other places
42:29
you know if it's
42:30
possible to draw you know I was playing around with like you
42:33
know can like
42:34
SPEAKER_01: Missouri like get rid of the St.
42:36
Louis-baseD seat,
42:37
can Kentucky you know like go to six and zero,
42:39
like these are these
42:41
are the questions that people need to be asking Indiana I'm
42:43
sure they're going you
42:44
know after what happened oh yeah night they're gonna take
42:46
another crack out at
42:47
SPEAKER_01: night I think that Republicans in
42:49
SPEAKER_01: The legislature will have learned their lesson.
42:51
SPEAKER_01: So yeah, it's going to be a free for all.
42:54
The impact is going to be more and more safe seats,
42:58
that where people's votes
42:59
SPEAKER_01: effectively don't matter.
43:00
SPEAKER_01: And therefore, the few competitive seats that do continue to exist
43:02
SPEAKER_01: are going to decide House control.
43:06
SPEAKER_01: And we're locked, going to be,
43:08
SPEAKER_01: not locked in because all things change eventually.
43:11
SPEAKER_01: But for the next few cycles, I think we are looking at very narrow
43:14
SPEAKER_01: House majorities either way.
43:16
SPEAKER_01: Because there are going to be just so few competitive seats
43:19
SPEAKER_01: And obviously we've seen the dysfunction that can result
43:22
SPEAKER_01: In having a very close House.
43:23
SPEAKER_01: I don't think it'll be as close as it is right now
43:28
The three seat margin is,
43:29
that's among the closest the House has ever been
43:35
yeah it's just it house elections are going to be very narrowly
43:40
fought in a few
43:42
specific districts I think for the foreseeable future and and
43:44
then you know and
43:45
then after 2030 with that census you know the question becomes
43:48
do places like
43:49
SPEAKER_01: California and Virginia go back to their commissions and I think
43:53
If the next couple of cycles play out the way that we think
43:56
where everybody's
43:57
SPEAKER_01: trying to max out,
43:58
SPEAKER_01: like it's going to be hard to voluntarily let go of that power.
44:00
SPEAKER_01: And so I think the only way out of this is if things get so bad,
44:04
SPEAKER_01: if we hit rock bottom where people are doing
44:08
You know really just like atrociously offensive things process
44:12
exactly that there
44:15
is actually momentum somebody on the national level because it
44:17
would have to be
44:18
national because I don't think either party is going to stand
44:20
down in individual
44:22
SPEAKER_01: states
44:23
SPEAKER_01: If there's a national movement to say,
44:24
hey,
44:24
we need to pass a federal law banning gerrymandering or setting
44:27
some kind of
44:28
SPEAKER_01: standards for how redistricting can be done.
44:31
SPEAKER_01: That is, I think, the only way I see out of this.
44:34
I don't think that's impossible because I think that you have
44:36
seen in the past going back to
44:38
you know the 1800s when these things go wild the fever does
44:43
often break and people
44:45
do say enough is enough as hard as that is to imagine in this
44:47
particular climate
44:48
but but I think that's the only way that we can get out of
44:52
having this kind of
44:54
perpetual redistricting cycle yeah I I've I've been thinking
44:58
that it you know it is
44:59
SPEAKER_00: truly a race to the bottom of a sort and you know is there a point where
45:04
There's enough sort of public blowback and which would be
45:08
required to make anything
45:10
like this happen enough bipartisan agreement where they can
45:13
find at least a few
45:14
SPEAKER_00: things to agree on for how to go about limiting this kind of
45:19
SPEAKER_00: You know, a dead letter to quote Supreme Court Justice Kagan, who was
45:34
SPEAKER_00: was in the dissenting parties.
45:36
SPEAKER_00: If that is true,
45:37
and we don't know that yet because they're going to be more
45:39
challenges brought
45:40
SPEAKER_00: under the VRA.
45:41
SPEAKER_00: But if that were true,
45:43
Democrats would probably be looking for ways to restore aspects
45:46
of the VRA.
45:47
SPEAKER_00: And Republicans, of course, would be opposed to that.
45:50
And that might further make it difficult to find any sort of
45:55
long term agreement on
45:56
SPEAKER_00: how to avoid a perpetual redistricting war.
45:59
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, it's basically like this.
46:01
SPEAKER_01: I mean, it's 1984.
46:02
SPEAKER_01: We've always been at war with East Asia.
46:04
SPEAKER_01: No,
46:06
SPEAKER_01: you bring up a really good point,
46:07
too,
46:07
SPEAKER_01: though,
46:08
which is to say that,
46:08
SPEAKER_01: you know,
46:09
SPEAKER_01: the the legal process is not done.
46:11
SPEAKER_01: You know, we mentioned Virginia, but in Florida, people
46:14
SPEAKER_01: They're suing over the new maps there.
46:16
SPEAKER_01: Florida has a provision in its state constitution that bans partisan
46:20
SPEAKER_01: gerrymandering,
46:21
which Ron DeSantis and Republicans in legislature have been
46:24
very careful to say
46:25
SPEAKER_01: they're not doing it for partisan gain.
46:26
SPEAKER_01: They've been basically, you know, used saying.
46:29
things about how the Fair Districts Amendment in Florida
46:33
violates the U.S.
46:34
SPEAKER_01: Constitution,
46:35
which,
46:35
SPEAKER_01: interestingly,
46:36
SPEAKER_01: the Supreme Court did not say in the Kalei decision.
46:39
It did not go the full way and say the Voting Rights Act is
46:42
constitutional.
46:43
SPEAKER_01: It just kind of narrowed it.
46:45
SPEAKER_01: So that's a court case that could happen.
46:47
I'm sure there will be a court case about this Tennessee map
46:50
that looks like it is
46:51
SPEAKER_01: going to pass.
46:52
SPEAKER_01: And I think that will be very interesting to follow because it could show
46:59
whether the the VRA really is a dead letter,
47:01
as you mentioned,
47:02
you know,
47:02
if that map is upheld.
47:03
But I think it is still within the realm of judicial possible
47:07
interpretation that
47:08
they'll say,
47:08
no,
47:08
SPEAKER_01: that one is too far that,
47:10
you know,
47:10
this this did kind of impermissibly infringe on the rights of
47:14
minority voters.
47:15
SPEAKER_01: So that's it's not you know,
47:18
SPEAKER_01: we aren't it's not totally guardrails lists yet,
47:22
SPEAKER_01: but we are certainly we're careering down the down the mountain.
47:27
yes yeah we'll see if the guardrails will will be there or hold
47:32
if we yeah and and
47:33
so you know this this is I mean this is the you know it's going
47:37
to be uh clearly a
47:39
SPEAKER_00: question of our time um and I
47:43
SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
47:44
SPEAKER_00: the tendency right now between the political parties to just sort of,
47:48
SPEAKER_00: you know,
47:49
there's a lot of division and obviously each side is looking
47:52
for every advantage
47:53
SPEAKER_00: they can wring out and now they are essentially being told,
47:56
hey,
47:56
SPEAKER_00: if it's for partisan reasons,
47:58
SPEAKER_00: you can wring out as much as you like.
48:00
SPEAKER_00: And that,
48:03
SPEAKER_00: I don't see how this,
48:05
SPEAKER_00: you know,
48:06
SPEAKER_00: it's just somebody who has watched this stuff for a very long time.
48:11
SPEAKER_00: It's like,
48:13
how do you avoid getting to that race to the bottom and clearly
48:16
we're going to be
48:17
on it well hey Nathaniel we could keep talking about this all
48:24
day but I think we've
48:26
reached a really good natural concluding spot here which is
48:29
that it is not going to
48:30
end anytime soon and that we'll be and hey exciting news for
48:35
anyone who is
48:36
SPEAKER_00: interested in redistricting we'll be talking about this
48:39
forever so or at least in the near future endlessly so it will
48:43
continue to be a
48:44
part of the the political conversation redistricting all the
48:47
time you know never
48:49
SPEAKER_00: never ending redistricting cycle so I want to thank Nathaniel Rakich
48:54
for joining me to chat about this very important topic I really
48:57
appreciate all your
48:58
insights and your expertise Nathaniel is the managing editor at
49:02
Votebeat I highly
49:03
encourage people to go check out VoteBeat and check out some of
49:05
the recent
49:06
write-ups they did on the fallout from all this there's a lot
49:11
of really great
49:12
SPEAKER_00: information there.
49:12
SPEAKER_00: Nathaniel, I don't know if there's anything you wanted to shout
49:15
SPEAKER_00: out about Votebeat
49:17
SPEAKER_01: No, I mean, you know, my colleagues do a fantastic job.
49:20
SPEAKER_01: You know,
49:21
SPEAKER_01: we have been covering certainly the redistricting wars,
49:24
but we are generally a website that's about election
49:26
administration and voting
49:27
SPEAKER_01: access.
49:28
SPEAKER_01: You know, so we don't do the kind of, you know, the partisan scorecard.
49:32
SPEAKER_01: You know,
49:33
we're talking about what are the consequences for voters of
49:35
postponing these
49:36
SPEAKER_01: primary elections,
49:38
SPEAKER_01: of having less competitive elections,
49:40
SPEAKER_01: things like that.
49:41
SPEAKER_01: You know,
49:42
and certainly,
49:42
SPEAKER_01: you know,
49:43
SPEAKER_01: we're doing a lot of broader coverage about all of the,
49:45
you know,
49:45
SPEAKER_01: President Trump's efforts to change.
49:47
You know,
49:47
kind of involve the federal government in election
49:50
administration with executive
49:51
SPEAKER_01: orders,
49:52
proof of citizenship requirement that's currently installed in
49:54
the Senate.
49:55
SPEAKER_01: So if you're interested in that stuff,
49:56
you know,
49:56
SPEAKER_01: kind of the nuts and bolts of how elections work,
49:59
you know,
49:59
SPEAKER_01: not just who wins.
50:01
SPEAKER_01: Check us out at Votebeat.org.
50:03
Yeah,
50:04
and obviously that is critical to the administrative side of
50:09
elections.
50:10
SPEAKER_00: I mean,
50:11
God,
50:11
election administrators are going to have a really tough one
50:13
this year with all the
50:14
SPEAKER_00: redistricting stuff going on.
50:16
SPEAKER_00: And we didn't even talk about the fallout from this for state legislative
50:20
SPEAKER_00: redistricting that's going to follow.
50:23
SPEAKER_00: There are so many aspects to this that are going to be affected.
50:30
Cities,
50:31
city councils and county districts for county commissions and
50:36
whatnot.
50:38
SPEAKER_00: So there is going to be kind of endless fallout from all this.
50:42
SPEAKER_00: But hey, we'll just have more to talk about.
50:45
SPEAKER_00: So again thank you Nathaniel for joining me.
50:49
SPEAKER_00: I'm Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst at Decision Desk HQ.
50:54
I want to thank Stephen Stover for producing this podcast and
50:55
Eric Cunningham for
50:56
helping nail down some of the timeline and specifics and also
51:02
suggesting the word
51:03
SPEAKER_00: "Surgical"
51:04
SPEAKER_00: for describing the Tennessee map because it was indeed that.
51:08
SPEAKER_00: So again, come check out next week.
51:10
SPEAKER_00: I think we're going to be talking about Georgia's primary,
51:13
SPEAKER_00: which is still going and should count,
51:17
SPEAKER_00: should be in effect on May 19th.
51:20
SPEAKER_00: So we're going to talk about all the stuff that's going on in that race,
51:24
especially the governors and Senate contests where there are
51:26
some very interesting
51:27
SPEAKER_00: primaries happening.
51:28
SPEAKER_00: So Nathaniel, thanks again for coming on.
51:31
SPEAKER_00: Thanks Geoffrey, great to see you as always Good to see you too