Latest / Beyond the Summit with Amir Golshani / Save Its Head or Save Its Face? Iran’s Final Gamble | Dr. Nazee Moinian
Transcript
- Amir Golshani: Welcome back. Today on Beyond the Summit, we are joined by a voice that bridges the gap between the echoes of Iran's ancient history and the sharp realities of today's geopolitical frontlines. Dr. Nazee Moinian is an adjunct fellow at the Middle East Institute, a PhD scholar from University of St. Andrews, and woman who has spent decades advising at the highest levels of global diplomacy. From the halls of the UN, to US presidential campaigns. At the moment, when the world is watching a fragile ceasefire and a tightening chokehold on the strait of Hormuz Nazi is here to help us look past the headlines. We are going to explore the ideological disarmament of a regime, the silent power of Iranian civil society, and what an actual end freedom looks like. Nazi, it's a privilege to have you here. Nazee Moinian: Thanks for having me. Amir Golshani: you have lived through ⁓ 1979 revolution and now advise on the future of that same nation. Looking back, what was the specific moment in your journey where you realized that analyzing Iran wasn't just a career, but a calling? Nazee Moinian: Well, no one has ever asked that question to me, but thank you for asking that. I have to reflect, when did I think that this is what I need to I don't have a specific moment. ⁓ It was of an accumulation of many comments and many observations and engaging people that ⁓ didn't know Iran. And I wanted to make sure that they understand the distinction between the regime and the ⁓ people. to the point that ⁓ ⁓ would ask people, random people, you what do you think about the Iranians? ⁓ know, ⁓ all had a negative view of Iran Iranians, many of them back in couldn't locate where the country was on the map. And I'm still not sure if that's the case that they can, but ⁓ we've come a way from that. So ⁓ I remember was sitting in an audience at a political function and the speaker was a controversial, liberal, anti-American, and this is ⁓ 20 years ago. And I got up and I a question and was at the Council of Foreign Relations and ⁓ he was a well-known person. And after the question, ⁓ people came up to me and they said, well, you I really enjoyed that question. I really enjoyed your angle. Where do you work? And I said, I'm at the UN right now. And one person came up to me and he said, need to go to SIPA. I said, okay, I will go to SIPA. ⁓ SIPA came out to be School of International and Public Studies Columbia University. I Googled it. I out that the deadline for applications graduates, graduate degree was in two days. I ⁓ gathered my my I applied, I got in five minutes before the deadline I got in. So I think. ⁓ just opening up that door to me, that there is a place where you can actually effectuate what you think. That's what I found about calling, yes. Yeah. Amir Golshani: I appreciate sharing that. Fantastic. Your doctoral research highlights how Iran's ancient history is both its charm and its challenge. How does a 2500 year old identity actually help or hinder a 20 year old protester into Iran today? Nazee Moinian: you know, ⁓ the of Iran is a storied history. know ⁓ the and history kind of refer back the same frame, but it's history of kings and ⁓ emperors and valiant and big wars with and the Greeks and, you know, it's It's just got a lot going for it. So I think of the most remarkable features of the Iranian, ancient Iranian history was that it was captured in a book that I know you and I know very well. It's called Shahnameh The Book of Kings, which is part fiction, part fact. But the and fiction are so ⁓ that it kind catches you and doesn't let go of you because it's so beautifully written. ⁓ 55,000 couplets, it's an epic poetry. that ⁓ part of the identity of the Iranians. ⁓ It what you needed to know to go through life. People randomly on the street, if you stop them, they would repeat a verse of Shahnawmeh, Ferdowsi's Shahnawmeh or Hafez or Saidi or one of the great Iranian poets, epic poetry back to you, even if they were illiterate in some peasant. ⁓ town in Iran. So ⁓ I say that what we dealing with is not just a civilization and a culture. It's a seasoned civilization and They've gone through history with a dramatic flare. That's, you know, we have the paladins and we have ⁓ the good guys and bad guys and Iran in history. is a duel between light and darkness, between good and bad. And on top of it, the faith of Zoroastrianism all of the Iranian history. They were also so intertwined, but we ⁓ had we had ⁓ Before Medes, and the Sasanis, they all brought with them ⁓ a of mission for the Iranian culture. So I may jump the gun on this, but you I always tell... people that we know about American exceptionalism. I believe that American exceptionalism directs this foreign policy, but I also believe there's an Iranian exceptionalism, whether you are a friend or a foe, where you're regime supporter or regime opponent, you believe in the destiny that's endowed to you to fulfill a mission, is battling the darkness, battling the the unjust ruler. And that definition of justice has been perverted by the Islamic regime. And that's what makes Iran-U.S. relations so uniquely incompatible in a way under this regime, because the sense exceptionalism that the U.S. has is pushing forward, looking to the future. absolving differences, looking for solutions, coming to the negotiating table as we're trying to do in Islamabad. But Iranians, in Misha's words, are burdened with their past. The past is like a boulder on their shoulder. They're carrying it through. They have a sense of mission and a burden of destiny. So they are really two worlds apart and two worldviews apart in that sense. Amir Golshani: Yeah, I really love that. Very, very well said. you have shifted from supporting diplomatic deals like the JCPOA to advocating for a Reagan style blueprint of internal pressure. What did you see in the data or the reality on the ground that changed your mind and how change actually happened? Nazee Moinian: there is not a moment that I said this is not going to work. I was one of the people that was working on the grand bargain to give enough incentives, enough carrots to the regime so that it will modify its behavior, which was the eight years of the Biden administration era thinking of Iran, that if you incentivize the regime, the regime will be incentivized to reform itself. no matter what we did, no matter what grand packages we thought of, ⁓ airplane parts, food aid, medicine aid, even technology to some point, some of the technology that we allowed them to have could have been used for dual uses, for weaponry and also for civils. And that always a disappointment, if can say. We had diplomats coming from Iran speaking at the UN Assembly ⁓ to the audience and they took the time to come aside and speak at some think tanks and they were giving a 20 minutes time slot. And I can say with whole experience in this that the 20 minutes was 10 minutes of reciting the verses of Quran and the grievances of the past. You did the 1953 and then the shooting down of the plane in 1988 over the Gulf and and then only 10 minutes looking forward to how we can solve the differences, how we can bridge the gap between the civil society and the regime and the regime and the political establishment in the US. And was myself, what is it that I'm really working on if the regime is so invested in politicizing the past? We have a lot to discuss also, you know, it's not like Americans had the best relationship with Iranians and Iranians were great to the Americans. They held them hostage for 444 days. So that kind of grievance basically is what propelled me to want to know more about thinking of the Iranian regime. And that's when I did my doctorate on that. Amir Golshani: Right. And you mentioned a great point, you know, of the strategy of Islamic regime to buy time. So recent reports suggest that Islamabad talks weren't an absolute failure. From your perspective, is this genuine progress or is Tehran simply using these negotiations as a tactical time buying exercise? Nazee Moinian: The narrative that the regime puts out a I mean, I don't have a better word to say it. How do even define success? I'd like to know how, if the regime says they were success, ⁓ what is definition of success to you? If you're trying recruit adherence to Khomeiniism or jihadism by ⁓ your message around the Obviously, you can portray this as a success because you've brought the great Satan all the way to Islamabad. That could be ⁓ a success. But also having ⁓ able to frame this conflict as it's about state of Hormuz, you know, we will open the state of Hormuz if you stop bombing us, ⁓ is ⁓ a what the regime considers a success. It's not why we went to war. It's we went to war because they're sitting on a highly enriched uranium at 60%, stockpile of uranium at 5 % on higher up, and not giving up their nuclear program, ⁓ covert activities on missile program, covert activities on funding and indoctrinating their proxies. All of this combined ⁓ this regime I can't even say a rogue regime, a bad actor in the Middle East that has upset the balance for the past 47 years. What the Iranians were successful to do was make this the state of Hormuz. That I can think ⁓ of, know, bragging about it. Look, know, America and Israel to us. They did attack us. We the pressure. We bombarded them back. ⁓ Amir Golshani: Right. Nazee Moinian: We really choke hold that the entire shipping through the state of Hormuz and we have them. But what the American side did is remove that variable. We blockaded their blockade and we made it again about the enrichment program. So now Iran is in the bind. Tehran is in the bind. It to decide whether it has to save its head or save its face. And that kind of conundrum is not a marker of success. ⁓ is in the bind. It has to decide whether it has to save its head or save its face. They've basically blockaded themselves ⁓ a situation where they don't know what to do. I've said, you know, the state of Hormuz is as much an ace card as is an Achilles heel. Its strategic importance make that country much more susceptible to foreign intervention. And history has proven over the years that that's exactly so. Amir Golshani: Right. So after the announcement of the extension of ceasefire, we are seeing increased IRGC naval activity and speedboats in the straits, shooting commercial ships. Does the regime actually intend to close the choke point or is this a theatrical leverage designed to shock the global oil market into forcing a US concession? Nazee Moinian: It's both. at this point, I would call this in political jargon, it's called gambling for resurrection. When a rogue regime or regime thinks it's under attack, existential attack, and its life depends on what responses it can have, ⁓ it pulls all stops. I mean, this is not a new military doctrine, but When you know that your country's not behind you, that 90 % of your people want you gone, you basically try to save your skin by hanging onto the power that you have. Because if you don't hang onto the power, your next stop is the gallows. It's what the regime did to the Iranians that the Iranians will to do to regime. It's not a democracy where you can vote your leader out. So if you lose a war, in America or in other democracies around the world, you're not voted back into the office. But in a rogue regime, a legitimate regime like Iran, if you lose the war, you lose your head. So they are trying to do whatever they can to hang on to power, whether it's dragging the Americans down the negotiation path, using their swift boats, which it's military asymmetry warfare is their specialty. claiming things that haven't happened, like the 26 ships that broke through the barrier of the blockade of America. They did not. They were sent back. So it's a combination of everything. Amir Golshani: Right. So you mentioned a great point about enrichment, with 60 % enrichment on the table. Do you believe that the regime sees the bomb as a survival tool or is it the threat of the bomb that is more valuable for them at the negotiating table? Nazee Moinian: Nuclear deterrence has always been all about that. It's the deterrent factor that is so valued because if you have nuclear stockpile and you're in a conflict, you always use this as a tool ⁓ to scare enemy off. I I had this ⁓ conversation over years, every school that I attended to with my professors, ⁓ they told me that Iran will not explode a bomb. And I always told them that, you're right, there's nothing to be gained if Iran explodes. Just the nuclear fallout, the clouds will revert back to Iran if they ⁓ explode a over Israel. ⁓ After October 7th, I have changed my mind. I think ⁓ if Iran can do damage with a dirty bomb and it sees it's in trouble ⁓ and on the verge of extinction, it might. It might go for a bomb. After October 7th, I have changed my mind. I think ⁓ if Iran can do damage with a dirty bomb with not a highly enriched uranium at 85 percent, with 60 percent or less, and it sees it's in trouble and on the verge of extinction, it might. It might go for a dirty bomb. And that's not what I used to think before. Amir Golshani: Right. for the first time in decades, the Iranian people's ⁓ demand for change seems to align perfectly with the Western interest in regional stability. Why has it taken the world so long to this alignment? for the first time in decades, the Iranian people's ⁓ demand for regime seems to align perfectly with the Western interest in regional stability. Nazee Moinian: I'm just going to change the world back to United States of America because literally that's what ⁓ Iranians think about, the regime thinks about. ⁓ ran a campaign in 2024 only based on who can Trump. They weren't thinking of who can defeat ⁓ Macron or Stammer ⁓ or ⁓ I think at that point it was Boris Johnson. you know, America has occupied the rule of states in the regime's head for decades and after that Israel. But it's basically, it's the American worldview that they're against. It's our definition of human rights, of democracy, of pluralism. of representative government, Amendment, Second Amendment. These things ⁓ considered sacrosanct to us, and they're like ⁓ almost an insult to the Iranians. ⁓ The Islamic regime does not believe ⁓ in rights of humans. They believe in rights of Islam that the Iranians are subjected to. So Iranians are considered the subject, not a citizen. And they're the subject of the Islamism, the Khomeiniism that is broadened since 1979. Why hasn't the world paid attention to this sooner? There was no political will in United States. We've had, after Reagan, we've had presidents who tried and failed in containing Iran. Mostly because ⁓ is a sense of optimism that has gripped American foreign policy. And also there's a sense of pessimism that has gripped our military about in faraway wars. You know, as my mentor, Walter Russell Mead said, ⁓ our experience in the Middle is not ⁓ crowned in a wreath of glory. We failed in Afghanistan, we failed in Iraq, even though Iraq is showing much better signs than before. a quagmire ⁓ no end. So wanting, an American president and asking your nation to go to war with a country far away when you've had all these experiences behind you is a big ask. Amir Golshani: Absolutely. having that said, regarding Iranian people, you have spoken about the Solidarity Movement in Poland. If we aren't talking about kinetic war or tanks, what does empowering the Iranian people actually look like in the next six months? Nazee Moinian: So I wrote a paper with Charlie Letterman at the Foundation of Defense of Democracies comparing the Iranian situation to the Polish situation and the rise of solidarity movement in Poland in 1979 and 1980. And we compared and contrasted whether there are areas that we can use and exploit in Iranian civil society, in Iranian leadership that could mimic the outcome of the Polish uprising. There are a lot of overlaps. There's a lot of differences also. Overlaps are the two American leaders, Reagan and Trump. They're both outsiders. They're both actually media personalities. Ronald Reagan was an actor, then he was the president of SAG. And we all know about President Trump. He's an entrepreneur, but also a media personality. He did The Apprentice. He had appeared in multiple series, being himself. They were both underestimated and they rose to the occasion in their own way. Lindsey Graham, the American Senator says Trump is Reagan .2.0 or Reagan plus. I of agree with that. Ronald Reagan had a gut dislike for the Soviet empire, which is what he called. the Russians under the communist rule. He stayed true to the narrative. That's understanding of the Soviet empire as ⁓ a force that extracts resources from its own people so that it could project communism abroad. To Reagan and unthinkable, undemocratic, inhuman way of leading a country. And he miss words. He talked about it all the time, that we will render the Soviet empire onto the asheeps of history, which is a play on Marx's words that will render capitalism on the asheeps of history. ⁓ And said that ⁓ in British parliament. He said it multiple times. on TV, in his cabinet meetings, in state of union. I think that kind of gut reaction is what President Trump has towards the Islamic regime. I'm not sure where it comes from, but I know that as far back as 1987, for example, he took a page ad in a major publication in New York to talk to the foreign policy establishment to ratchet up their pressure on the Islamic regime. In other words, telling them, what are you doing? Like this is something we can deal with easily. And his idea at the time was just bomb Iran and just make this regime disappear. Obviously there's much more that needs to be done to topple the regime. But you would understand that he didn't like to be played with as an entrepreneur, businessman, and now as an American president. ⁓ And he thought that Iranians are playing with us. And truth be told, even to this day, as we're waiting to hear back from the negotiations, whether they will resume, whether they won't resume, what's going to come out of Islamabad in the future, that's still there to modus operandi, that they are playing with us. So he wasn't wrong. Amir Golshani: Right. Right. So personally, I believe path to become Reagan plus is not ended yet until the job is done. So let's talk about ⁓ economy with inflation at 100 to 180 percent and failing economy. The regime is still spending billions on proxies. How much longer can the axis of misery sustain itself before the internal economic engine completely ceases? Nazee Moinian: like to give credit where credit is due because there's, it's a very small circle of us that work on Iran, but we all know each other. So, Miad Maleki who worked on the sanctions regime for the United States ⁓ against, great. So, you know, he does great work. So, he come out with the 10 points that other people now are tweeting without giving credit. Amir Golshani: I recently had me out on the show. Fantastic. Nazee Moinian: If Iran stops pumping oil, it will damage its oil wells. And Iran needs to stop pumping oil, because at one point the reserves will be full. And if it's not selling its oil on the market the reserves are full and the tankers out on Persian are full, then the workers will walk off because there's nothing to do. And once the workers walk off, ⁓ once pumping of oil is done with, that's bringing the economy to a halt. You you need to pay your workers, you need to ⁓ sustain your military capabilities, you need to feed the war machine, pay the government workers, pay the IRGC, pay the Airtash. ⁓ where that pivot? Did that turning point? I'm not sure. I... was told by Miad that's the 13 days that matters, because after that, there is no way to restore the oil. And I had this conversation with an American official yesterday and the day before yesterday, where I them Miat had said, ⁓ and they're very aware of it. And I said, you know, maybe just extending the blockade will ⁓ bring the regime to knees. and you will be able to extract better concessions or the regime will implode. But the blockade at this point is kind of operating on the patient halfway. You are either killing the ⁓ or saving patient. This is a limbo. This is somewhere in between. ⁓ So his message is heard. People who agree him like, Amir Golshani: Right. Nazee Moinian: I do like Dr. Ansari does, like Behnam does, all of these people who have been on your show before, also are saying on this message that economic fury ⁓ epic will be the regime's death now. ⁓ And we're to that. Amir Golshani: So I really don't know what this regime is counting on, but I guess, you know, might be they're counting on, you know, so to buying more time. I know it hurts them badly, but they're counting on, you know, buying more time to see the real impact on global economy. I don't know, but that, Nazee Moinian: No, no, no, you're exactly right, Amir. That's a right reading of what the regime's playbook is. I with you. The only problem is that I don't think the regime understands the blockading of its blockade. I don't think the officials ⁓ know badly this will wreck. I mean, I am assuming that, and I don't want to assume that's a no-no in our profession. I don't think the regime understands the blockading of its blockade. don't the officials ⁓ know how this wreck. They thought to themselves that dragging the Americans down the negotiating path will reach the of the American patience for war and for the price of gas. And the president ⁓ lose focus ⁓ and bored with ⁓ And that's why time play into the hands of Iranians against the Americans. But now that the blockading of the blockade is in effect and the regime cannot sell and export its oil, now the cards are changed. The table is flipped. And this is interesting to me. This is like, know, Iran has painted itself to a corner by insisting on negotiations while the negotiations under blockade are a tantamount to their implosion, if you will. Amir Golshani: Okay. Nazee Moinian: So it'd be interesting to see what's going to happen after this. Amir Golshani: Right, Something heartbreaking for me you and many Iranians is that while negotiating Islamabad, Islamic regime is hanging protesters at home. Does this domestic brutality ⁓ strength? Something really for me and and many Iranians is that while they're Islamabad, Islamic regime is hanging protesters at home. What they're going to prove, you know, doing this at the time of war or these negotiations. They already lost their moral and social legitimacy. What they're trying to prove. Nazee Moinian: I don't know how to answer that. ⁓ this is ⁓ a regime that cares about its own people. If you will that every few blocks they had an ammunition depot in residential neighborhoods. ⁓ And the we know that now is because the Israelis always knew the location and overnight these things explode. right next to residential buildings. The residential buildings, God, staying intact. But imagine a regime that uses its own people, and these are sophisticated, educated, like worldly people, as a shield. And you know, it ⁓ us sitting this country thinking that, what are they thinking? ⁓ They're thinking. The point is to send the message that if you Iranian people, are not backing us, the Islamic regime, the clerics, the RUGC, whoever's in charge right ⁓ will be punished. And the punishment is not a slap on the wrist. The punishment is the gallows, is blinding, is maiming. ⁓ we know now from this horrible, ⁓ event of three, four days ago that the husband took his own life because they had killed the wife and then they had ⁓ the wife and sent a video of raping a corpse the husband. The husband killed himself. I know if you're, at this point, you're not talking to a rational actor. ⁓ I wanna, I'm not defending the regime, but I also wanna bring in another development. So the Iranian regime has been importing militias from Iraq and from Afghanistan. The Fatimans from Afghanistan and... Amir Golshani: Right. Hashdo Shabi Nazee Moinian: I think it's Hashdo Shabi from Iraq, I think about 5,000 fighters. It's very possible that those most brutal, heinous, unspeakable acts are done these guys. But that doesn't make the pain any less. That doesn't make the reality of the regime any better. If you're willing to commit those kind of murders against your own people, I can't imagine what you'd be able to do. once you expand your Islamic revolution beyond your borders, which is the project that Qomini had in mind in 1979. Amir Golshani: Right, absolutely. Now let's change the topic and talk about one of the main pillars of Iran's future, Generation Z. You have called them the leaders of a new revolution. What makes these generations' way of thinking different from the activities from 2009 to 2019? Nazee Moinian: Right. So Generation Z, which in Farsi is called Nasl e Zid, is a generation that grew up on internet. I mean, if you speak to them, if you stop them on the streets in Tehran or any big city in Iran, they speak fluent English. It's not because they had formal education. It's because they've watched enough videos and movies Hollywood productions that they have become fluent in American accent and English. So ⁓ the generation that has come of age in a limitless world. There are no borders ⁓ when they're something ⁓ on their computer screen. ⁓ And they're to learn. And they kind look at their grandparents that brought about the 1970 revolution with a sense of wonderment and blame. Like, what were you guys thinking? Amir Golshani: All Nazee Moinian: Like, didn't you think of us? Didn't you think that 40, 50 years down the line, we are born into this suppressive, suffocating society? So they're not waiting for them to act because they're the guilty partners in this. They're the ones that brought the regime to power. They take the matters in their own hands. And it's not only women, as we saw in Women Life Freedom, it's males, it's the brothers, it's the nephews, it's all the young people that we see out on the streets. It's even the 12 year olds that they go out with their parents and they're shot at. I've always said over years that I thought the revolution in Iran will happen on the back of the Iranian women. And when ⁓ the life freedom movement happened, that just, said to myself, I ⁓ kind of, saw that coming. The Iranian women are Shiazans, which is what we call them, the lionesses. They are the ones that The Iranian women are Shiazans, which is we call them, the lionesses. They are the ones that despite everything, they look forward and they carry their community, their society, their family forward, and they're ready to fight for it. despite everything, they look forward and they carry their community, their society, their family forward, and they're ready to fight for it. And we have glimpses of that in the 1905, 1906 constitutional revolution where women involved in 1953 coup against the Mosadeq which I don't want to call it a coup, I want to call it a showdown because there's still a lot of unclassified information that needs to be released. But anyway, women were always part of the fabric of the fighting spirit of Iranian society. This Generation Z, the Naslazid, also has no boundaries between the genders. know, if my sister is going out to protest, I'm going out to protest. If my mother, my young mom of two kids is unhappy this, ⁓ I going to march along with her. So thank God for them, Amir. Thank God for them. They are again, worldly, wants better education. They want a normal life. You know the song by Shervin Hajipur, Baraye He doesn't talk about a utopian life in that song. He talks about a normal life where you sit under the shade of a tree with your beloved and you share a drink and you listen to the bristles of the leaves. Amir Golshani: Right. Nazee Moinian: and the barking of the dogs. are yearning for normalcy, ⁓ I think the gen Z of Iranians are the ones who have most to lose, but also most to gain once this is gone. Amir Golshani: is really heartwarming to see how brave, courageous, and brilliant our Iranian people are, specifically Gen Z, is really heartwarming to see how brave, courageous, and brilliant our Iranian people are, specifically Gen Z, as you beautifully mentioned. So let's talk about the role of diaspora as a bridge between the two worlds. What is the one thing that Iranian diaspora is getting wrong about the current movement inside the country? Nazee Moinian: uniting against one common enemy ⁓ I am proudly an Iranian Jew. ⁓ I have the best of three being an Iranian with our great civilization and culture, being Jewish with that civilization and culture, and being an American recipient of everything that this country has offer so I can perpetuate the other two aspects of my identity without fear. We are... brothers and sisters, we have one common enemy, that's Islamic regime. Amir Golshani: So Nuzzi, you mentioned a very, very important point. I always say, if someone tells the truth based on facts, that's the most important thing. Ignore the other. And experience, of course. So forget about noise. regarding Jewish have a of Jewish fantastic friends. I know a lot of Jewish people inside and outside of the country, specifically talking about Iranian Jewish community. Nazee Moinian: and experience. Yeah. Right. Amir Golshani: They always liked what you said. They always said, I am Iranian Jew. So it is important for them to their identity as Iranian Jew, not Jewish Iranian. ⁓ Nazee Moinian: Also, my mentor, Dr. Ansari, and your guest at one of the previous episodes has a wonderful, wonderful essay out on foreign affairs about Iranian Jewry. And he says if you ask an Iranian Jew about his devotion to Iran or Israel, they consider ⁓ Iran their father and Israel their mother or the other way around. So it's two equal parts of the same identity. And I thought that was very well said. Amir Golshani: having Dr. Ansari on my show is one of the greatest honors of my career. And I strongly recommend the audience to go and follow Dr. Ansari on his sub stack Iranshahr Fantastic. Thank you so much. Nazi, if you were in the Oval Office today, what would you say to those who Nazee Moinian: Agreed, agreed, yes. Amir Golshani: as seen and heard, many people okay, we don't want another Iraq, we don't want another Libya. Nazee Moinian: it's not comparable. is three times the size of Iraq, much bigger ⁓ different culture and civilization. And I want to emphasize that point little bit more. director of policy at Middle East Institute, Kenneth Pollock, brilliant. I consider him mentor, philosopher, friend, he is coming out with his 11th or 12th book and it's on the significance of culture, culture on policy. So that's groundbreaking because I went through ⁓ about to 12 years of ⁓ graduate here at Columbia University and that was looked down upon. We didn't talk about culture. We talked about states acting like ⁓ billiard against each other, bouncing against each other ⁓ and for resources regardless of what the makeup of the state was. It's like homogenous movement, homogenous actors. And ⁓ I always this argument with my professors, you know, what about who's running the country? What about the person at the helm? What about the culture of that country? ⁓ And my answer was you know, the person doesn't matter. It's the state system that matters. So Ken Pollack is writing about the fallacy of that theory and how culture shapes the understanding, the underpinning, the overture of foreign policy. So that's exactly where we can bring Iran in. Iran has a completely different culture than the rest of the region. to ⁓ it together in the same basket as even though that's a great civilization, or Afghanistan. or any of the Gulf countries is a misreading of Iranian history. And if you misread history, you're bound to repeat the same mistakes. Amir Golshani: Right, I love that. Nazi, how much of Iran's survival today is dependent on being a gas station for China and a drone factory for Russia? And can we break that triangle? Nazee Moinian: ⁓ Yeah. China is ⁓ for me to answer in many ways than Russia. Russia is so deep ⁓ into own problems that ⁓ I even know if they can, they have a, they see the light at the end of the tunnel or if there is a tunnel for that matter. Chinese have a proverb that says, ⁓ a crafty rabbit builds three holes. they believe in optionality. They don't put all their eggs in one basket. They believe in being able to compensate for a lack of one friend or one resource by creating other friendships and other alliances for their growth. And I think if Iran's ⁓ oil outputs, which is 90 % sold to China, is removed from the Chinese ⁓ from the Chinese imports ⁓ to country. It will probably hurt a little bit until it can secure the purchase of oil through a mediator from Iraq, from Saudi Arabia, maybe through President Trump from Venezuela. You know, they're crafty enough, they're that crafty rabbit that they look at the long game. Nothing about them is impulsive. They know that if they get entangled into a war in the Gulf, they're not fighting for Iran, they're fighting against the United States and that's the last thing they wanna do. They want to be an economic powerhouse and getting entangled into international war with another superpower, the superpower. ⁓ is everything they don't want to do. Russia is ⁓ it's wild card for me. A lot Russian and foreign policy directives are really Putin's own personal ambitions. It's not a Chinese kind of confusion, ⁓ a philosophical doctrine survival and thrive. It's just that one person. So what happens if you remove that person? Or what happens if that person gets bored with the war? Or what happens if this person changes its mind about Iran? So loser in all of this triangle really is Iran, is the Islamic regime. It doesn't have a patron the way Poland was reliant on ⁓ Union, ⁓ it does have this lifelines that are very much hurt. ⁓ And that's where the blockade is so important. Blockade is our strength position. keeping it in place, we'll able to re-establish a new order in the Middle East that's hopefully based on non-belligerent alliances towards the U.S. Because right now, the Axis of Resistance, Axis of Aggression's ⁓ sole is to drive U.S. establishment of the Gulf. out of the Middle East. And hopefully it will be replaced by alliances that are main objective is not anti-imperialism, anti-Americanism, anti-Westernism. Amir Golshani: I appreciate that. So in my opinion, current situation in Iran is not sustainable. And at the end of the day, this regime has to go, has to be ended one way or another. So let's talk about the fear of what comes after to the skeptics who ask if the regime falls, won't it be chaos or won't there be power vacuum? Nazee Moinian: I know what's going to if this stays, which is the worst possible scenario. So I'd rather not talk about that. But once this regime is gone, Iranians better act like Democrats, because we can't have democracy without Democrats. Amir Golshani: Wonderful. You often use the Farsi proverb, whatever comes from the heart will inevitably, you know, sit on the heart. When you speak to the youth in Iran, what is the the Farsi proverb, whatever comes from the heart will inevitably, you know, sit on the heart. heart-centered message you want them to hear. Nazee Moinian: you know, ⁓ very difficult to be a nation that ⁓ admired the board. Iran is one of those nations. know, everyone talks about the Iranian women, the Iranian bravery, the Iranian culture civilization, even presidents who didn't have the political will to confront the Islamic regime. talk about the sophistication and the beauty of the Iranian culture and civilization. they are the gatekeepers, this Gen Z people. They're the gatekeepers of this culture and civilization. And I'm very proud of them for not having lost their sense of beauty of their culture and wanting a Western-oriented, ⁓ Western-inspired I think Iranian society has always had a duality. there are three overlapping circles, which is what I wrote my dissertation about, which is the Islamic circle, the Persian circle, and the Western circle. And are an amalgam of these three characteristics. So I am very proud that the Iranians of And also in diaspora, we're very much still Iranians, Amir. I I have Iranian food and music and Nowruz is celebrated. Every other holiday in Iran is celebrated. That's an ancient Iranian holiday. ⁓ am very proud of the people inside of Iran. This is my message to them of holding two truths together, of being the gatekeepers a beautiful culture and civilization and wanting what the rest of the world can offer in sense of freedom and democracy. Amir Golshani: Thank you for the great message. lastly, Nazy, after all you have researched, seen and done, what does freedom mean to you today, personally? Nazee Moinian: Freedom. You know, I'm going to answer that being a woman, because I think freedom for a man and freedom for a woman are very much parallel and they have a lot of overlaps, but kind of different also. So I come from a family of lioness women. My mom was a doctor, OBGYN, but four years of medical school, not seven or eight years. In her time, you know, she was 21 years old and she was sent to Ahvaz in Iran, a very ⁓ third world ⁓ post next to Abadan refinery that had lot of discomfort, but they needed medical services. So she went there with my dad and they established an office for her. She delivered 3,000 children in her lifetime. She saved a lot of Arab ⁓ girls from beheaded because they would be brought into her office by father or the uncle or the older brother to ⁓ check see if they're virgins. And they were usually ⁓ mostly by their own relatives. And these the Arab dwelling, tent dwelling, Arab dwellers around border of Iraq and Iran. And that was the base of my mom's patience. And she would interrogate the girl of who did this to you. And the girl was always saying, like, my father, my uncle, she was crying. And then she would go out and tell the father and the brother, whoever was standing outside with a knife or a dagger, ready to behead the girl. And she would say, you know, shame on you. She's a virgin like any other virgin. You brought her all the way here. You're making her life miserable. You should go take care of your own affairs instead of trying to behead women and girls in your family. So that happened often, unfortunately, in my mom's generation. I want women to able to realize their fullest potential. And I think this country gives women that opportunity. And if you are an Iranian with an Iranian sense of exceptionalism, coming to this country ⁓ and benefiting the American exceptions and make it work for you. Don't take it for granted. ⁓ is your limit. ⁓ can do a lot. You can do a lot and you don't have to be worried about ⁓ you're judged for your religion, for the way you look. It's an equal opportunity country. It still has a long way to go with actual parity between the sexes, ⁓ but I take this system over any system around the world. It's... It's where you can realize your dreams. to me, freedom is realizing your dreams. Amir Golshani: I appreciate that. Is there anything that we haven't talked about, but you think it is absolutely critical to talk about? Nazee Moinian: I am an optimist, think you are too. ⁓ I have chosen to be an optimist. And sometimes in my analysis, ⁓ the optimist comes more through than the realist part. I choosing to believe. I am choosing to believe. that the arc of justice will bend towards the Iranian people, that this is the moment in time, there's political will in America, in Israel, among them are Iranian people, to make the unthinkable happen. that the arc of justice will bend towards the Iranian people, that this is the moment in time, there's political will in America, in Israel, among them are Iranian people, to make the unthinkable happen. And I am hoping to be part of that celebratory group that's... that celebrates, you know, I want to say to the regime, know, Iranians are hospitable. They welcomed you for 47 years. It's time to go home. Just, you know, go take a break. Go buy a villa on the ocean front of Crimea because that's the only place that they can go and retire, you know. Good luck to you. Leave the Iranians alone. Amir Golshani: Dr. Nazim Moinian, thank you for bringing such profound clarity and heart to our podcast today. Nazee Moinian: Absolutely. Thank you, Amir, for having me and thank you for the viewers and listeners that stayed tuned. Thank you.