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How could the Iran war go global? The law of unintended consequences and the wisdom of St. Patrick · The Daily Article

• 0:02
  [SPEAKER_00]: Greetings and welcome to Denison Forum's Daily Article Podcast for Tuesday, March 17, 2026.
• 0:08
  [SPEAKER_00]: I'm Chris Elkins, narrating today's Daily Article, written by co-founder Dr. Jim Denison.
• 0:16
  [SPEAKER_00]: Israel's defense minister announced this morning that its military killed top Iranian security official Alaylan Johnny in an overnight strike.
• 0:26
  [SPEAKER_00]: In other news, the U.S. embassy in Baghdad has been targeted by explosive drones, British airways as its suspended some flights to the Middle East until the end of May, and U.S. gas prices are continuing to rise as a result of the war.
• 0:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: However, much of the focus today is on a narrow, waterway that is central to the global economy.
• 0:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: A quarter of the world's liquified natural gas and seaborn trade passes through the straight of Hormus from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
• 0:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran has effectively closed it by attacking ships and reportedly laying mines in the straight, more than a thousand cargo ships have been blocked so far.
• 1:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: According to Stanford and Harvard historian Nile Ferguson, however, the straight of our moves is potentially less significant to the world than the straight of Taiwan.
• 1:14
  [SPEAKER_00]: He notes that more than 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors and 99% of the chips used for cutting-edge AI training are manufactured in Taiwan.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: The island also imports 97% of its energy supply in the form of oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal.
• 1:33
  [SPEAKER_00]: If China were to seize the opportunity afforded by the war in Iran to restrict energy imports into Taiwan and technology exports from the island,
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_00]: The impact to the global economy would be immediate and catastrophic.
• 1:47
  [SPEAKER_00]: Dr. Ferguson's sobering article illustrates his oft-quoted observation, the law of unintended consequences is the only real law of history.
• 1:56
  [SPEAKER_00]: Those who study wars can especially illustrate his maximum.
• 2:00
  [SPEAKER_00]: Japan thought bombing Pearl Harbor would force the U.S. to negotiate peace
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: Allowing the Japanese to retain some, or all, of the territories they had captured in the Pacific.
• 2:10
  [SPEAKER_00]: Aedalth Hitler thought invading the Soviet Union, but enabled him to cease control of its resources for his war machine.
• 2:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: Iran similarly thought it could rebuild its nuclear program after the June 2025 attacks and develop missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_00]: However, many foreign policy experts warn that at nuclear armed Iran would destabilize the Middle East and pose an existential threat to Israel.
• 2:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: Other regional powers could pursue such weapons as well, and miscalculations could result in a nuclear exchange.
• 2:43
  [SPEAKER_00]: The U.S. and Israel responded to this threat on February 28 by launching attacks on Iran.
• 2:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: The war that ensued now has directly impacted more than a dozen nations.
• 2:55
  [SPEAKER_00]: In the Shawshake Redemption, when Andy DeFran arrives at the prison, maintaining his innocence, a veteran inmate named Red responds,
• 3:04
  [SPEAKER_00]: Everyone in here is innocent, didn't you know that it is a fact of human nature that humans typically do what we believe to be in our personal best interest and will typically find ways to justify our behavior to ourselves.
• 3:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is true of all actions including wars.
• 3:21
  [SPEAKER_00]: As a result, the ultimate solution for war is not military.
• 3:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is not just because military action so often bring unintended and escalating consequences
• 3:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: or that wars with weapons are the consequence of wars with ideas.
• 3:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: As former Vice President Mike Pence said Sunday, the current conflict in the Middle East is, quote, about finishing a war that's nearly 50 years in the making, in quote, Iran's Islamic leaders ceased power in 1979, held Americans hostage in Tehran for 444 days, and have continued to direct the world's foremost state sponsor of terrorism.
• 3:59
  [SPEAKER_00]: This is because they are convinced that they are advancing Islam and preparing for the return of the body, their Messiah.
• 4:06
  [SPEAKER_00]: UNESCO's Constitution states, since wars begin in the minds of women and men, it is in the minds of women and men that defenses of peace must be constructed in quote.
• 4:17
  [SPEAKER_00]: But since human minds are fallen, such defenses cannot ultimately be constructed through human effort.
• 4:23
  [SPEAKER_00]: filmmaker Stanley Kubrick claimed, however vast the darkness we must supply our own light.
• 4:29
  [SPEAKER_00]: If that is true, our future is dark indeed.
• 4:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: The good news stated in John 1 verses 4 and 5, is that Jesus is still the light of men and that his light shines in the darkness and the darkness has not overcome it.
• 4:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: As a result, when we pray to an omnipotent God, he answers in omnipotent ways.
• 4:50
  [SPEAKER_00]: The great theologian and apologist, Tertugian, who died in AD 240 said of prayer, quote, it's only art is to call back the souls of the dead from the very journey into death, it gives strength to the weak, to heal the sick, to exercise the possessed, to open prison cells, to free the innocent from their chains.
• 5:13
  [SPEAKER_00]: Prayer cleanses us from sin, drives away temptations, stamps out persecutions, comforts the faint hearted, gives new strength to the courageous, brings traveler safely home, palms the waves, confounds robbers, feeds the poor, over rules the rich, lifts up the fallen, supports those who are falling, sustains those who stand firm.
• 5:36
  [SPEAKER_00]: In quote, most of all,
• 5:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Prayer unites us with the one to whom we pray.
• 5:40
  [SPEAKER_00]: When we spend time in his presence, his spirit molds us into the character of his son, affirmed by Romans 8 verse 29, and infuses us with his peace and power.
• 5:52
  [SPEAKER_00]: And he uses us to change the hearts and minds in ways that change nations.
• 5:57
  [SPEAKER_00]: St. Patrick was born around AD 389 in England.
• 6:01
  [SPEAKER_00]: Irish invaders captured and enslaved him at the age of 16.
• 6:05
  [SPEAKER_00]: During his captivity, he later wrote, the Lord opened to me a sense of my unbelief that I might be converted with all my heart and to the Lord, in quote, at the age of 22, he escaped and returned home.
• 6:19
  [SPEAKER_00]: But the Lord later called him to return to Ireland this time as a missionary.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_00]: By his death on this day in 8461, he had established some 200 churches in Ireland and led more than 100,000 people to faith in Christ.
• 6:35
  [SPEAKER_00]: But there's even more to his story, Irish Christians descended from St. Patrick's Ministry.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_00]: sale to Britain where they led multitudes to Christ, established monasteries, and copied books being destroyed elsewhere.
• 6:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: According to Thomas K. Hills, how the Irish safe civilization, these men, quote, single-handedly refounded European civilization throughout the continent, in quote, life's changed by the gospel changed the world.
• 7:03
  [SPEAKER_00]: They still do.