Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Trump Gets No Jail Time or Probation in NY Hush Money Case

Transcript

Trump Gets No Jail Time or Probation in NY Hush Money Case · Bloomberg Intelligence

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at ten am
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: us live on YouTube.
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Other major news story just crossing the tape of breaking
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: this morning. Donald Trump, the first former US president convicted
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: of a felony, was sentenced by a New York judge
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: Friday to no jail or probation for his hush money case.
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: Joinings right now is June Grassol, Bloomberg's legal analyst.
• 0:40
  Speaker 3: Here, June. No surprises here for you, No.
• 0:43
  Speaker 4: Really, no surprises at all. I thought it would take
• 0:45
  Speaker 4: much longer if Trump decided to speak.
• 0:47
  Speaker 5: So he did give a.
• 0:48
  Speaker 4: Little rambling speech, echoing things that he said over and
• 0:51
  Speaker 4: over again, how this is a witch hunt, how it's
• 0:53
  Speaker 4: not fair even talking though about the election. He got
• 0:57
  Speaker 4: a few things in there. So, I mean, this is
• 1:00
  Speaker 4: what the judge had said he was going to do.
• 1:02
  Speaker 4: He was going to sentence him to an unconditional release.
• 1:05
  Speaker 4: There was not going to be any kind of prison time,
• 1:07
  Speaker 4: no penalties, no fines, nothing. It's just the stigma of
• 1:11
  Speaker 4: now being a convicted felon and in ten days being
• 1:14
  Speaker 4: the first president to be sworn in as the President
• 1:18
  Speaker 4: of the United States as a convicted felon. I think
• 1:21
  Speaker 4: that's what he's been trying to avoid all along.
• 1:23
  Speaker 6: Well, Juna does say that Trump plans to appeal the
• 1:26
  Speaker 6: verdict and seek to overturn his conviction through the appeals process.
• 1:30
  Speaker 6: What would that look like. What is the likelihood of
• 1:32
  Speaker 6: that outcome?
• 1:33
  Speaker 4: Well, so Trump has appealed just about every decision legal
• 1:38
  Speaker 4: decision that has been handed down against him, So this
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: is no surprise. He's already started to appeal some of
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: the motions and some of the things the judge did.
• 1:47
  Speaker 4: So what happens is once the sentence is handed down,
• 1:50
  Speaker 4: I have about thirty days to say whether or not
• 1:52
  Speaker 4: they're going to appeal, and then they do their arguments
• 1:56
  Speaker 4: in an appellate brief to the Appellate Division in this case,
• 2:00
  Speaker 4: and then he can Probably he'll probably appeal whatever they
• 2:03
  Speaker 4: say if it's not good for him, to the highest
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: court in New York, which is the New York Court
• 2:06
  Speaker 4: of Appeals, and most likely to the Supreme Court, because
• 2:09
  Speaker 4: he's going to be arguing about these presidential immunity decisions
• 2:15
  Speaker 4: and whether they affected In other words, what happened here
• 2:18
  Speaker 4: is he said after that presidential immunity decision came out,
• 2:21
  Speaker 4: he said that Judge Mrchon shouldn't have allowed in some
• 2:24
  Speaker 4: of the testimony from example, for Hope Picks, which had
• 2:27
  Speaker 4: taken place in the White House, because that was done
• 2:30
  Speaker 4: in the course of his presidential duties. Judge Marchon disagreed
• 2:33
  Speaker 4: with that and also said that there was overwhelming evidence,
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: so that wasn't even needed for the jury. So that's
• 2:39
  Speaker 4: going to be one, definitely one of his points of appeal.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: What else is out there for the president? Like most people,
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: I can't keep track, and I think it feels like
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: most of them are rather resolved or dismissed or well.
• 2:50
  Speaker 4: When he takes office, nothing is going to happen to
• 2:53
  Speaker 4: him at all for four years because they won't go
• 2:56
  Speaker 4: after there's no prosecution of sitting presidents. The Georgia case
• 3:00
  Speaker 4: still sort of hanging around in appellate courts.
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: It was the.
• 3:06
  Speaker 4: Prosecutor there was thrown out because of a relationship with
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: another prosecutor on the case, So that's left that very tenuous.
• 3:13
  Speaker 3: That case is.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: Still there, But I mean, really most he'll just have appeals,
• 3:18
  Speaker 4: the appeals of this, and the classified document case goes
• 3:21
  Speaker 4: forward without him.
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: Something else in front of the Supreme Court, that TikTok
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: price for hundreds of millions of people out there, I think,
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: care about this?
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: What do you expect this to play out?
• 3:32
  Speaker 4: You know, this is hard, and I'm about to try
• 3:34
  Speaker 4: to listen to the oral arguments, so we'll try to
• 3:37
  Speaker 4: see how the justices feel. It's very hard because in
• 3:39
  Speaker 4: this case, the United States is claiming that this is
• 3:42
  Speaker 4: a matter of national security, and with matters of national security,
• 3:46
  Speaker 4: the justices usually leave it up to the executive branch
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: when the executive branch has a lot of authority and
• 3:52
  Speaker 4: there's deference to the executive branch. But at the same time,
• 3:55
  Speaker 4: you know, the First Amendment experts I've spoken to talk
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: about this as a First Amendment violation, the violation of
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: the First Amendment rights of the millions and millions of
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: people who are on TikTok and who don't have any
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: other way to express themselves exactly the way they do
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: on TikTok. So we'll see what happens. It's one thing
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: is for sure, it's going to be a very fast
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: decision because they're going to come down with it before
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: the band goes into effect.
• 4:18
  Speaker 6: I know, president like Donald Trump has also spoken out
• 4:20
  Speaker 6: about his view on this whole idea of the TikTok ban.
• 4:24
  Speaker 6: How much of a sway does it even seem that
• 4:26
  Speaker 6: he would be able to make toward this decision.
• 4:28
  Speaker 4: Well, he has been his views as on many things
• 4:31
  Speaker 4: have been varying. On TikTok he was against it than
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: for it, against it, now he is apparently for it.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: He submitted a brief to the Supreme Court as the
• 4:41
  Speaker 4: upcoming president, the president elects saying that the court should
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: delay the law going into effects so that he could
• 4:49
  Speaker 4: come in and solve the problem. And it talked about
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: him being a master deal maker and how he's the
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: only one who can come in and solve this whole problem.
• 4:59
  Speaker 4: I mean, how much that carries.
• 5:01
  Speaker 3: We have to see. All right, Judan, thank you so much.
• 5:03
  Speaker 3: We appreciate it.
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: June Grosso, a legal analyst for Bloomberg, giving us the
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: latest on the sentence handing down from the New York
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: Court here in President Trump, as well as the oral
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: arguments being heard right now in the US Supreme Court
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: regarding TikTok and the ownership there.
• 5:19
  Speaker 3: So we'll keep in touch with June.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch the program
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. You can also listen
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station,
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
• 5:40
  Speaker 2: It is normal Linda sitting in for Alex deal on
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: Paul Swinginger live here in our Bloomberg Interactive Brokers studio, streaming.
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: Live on YouTube as well.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: Let me get to the economic data points we saw today,
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: particularly the job zumbers. We can do that with Jeffrey Cleveland,
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: chief economist for Peydon and Regal. Jeffrey, thank you so
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: much for joining us. Jeffrey, I know you're based in
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: Los Angeles. You know, terrible situation out there. I wonder
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: if we could just get a couple of minutes from you.
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: You're right on the ground there in Los Angeles. Uh,
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: kind of what's the experience like, Well, it's I.
• 6:09
  Speaker 7: Mean, condolences to all the families who've lost property and
• 6:13
  Speaker 7: loved ones and you know, big shout out to all
• 6:16
  Speaker 7: the first responders. I think it's it's just amazing working
• 6:19
  Speaker 7: through the night here to to try and keep things
• 6:22
  Speaker 7: in check. I mean, this is an ongoing situation. We're
• 6:25
  Speaker 7: still in the midst of it. You know. Fortunately, in
• 6:29
  Speaker 7: my personal situation, we've been very fortunate, and it's great
• 6:33
  Speaker 7: to see the community in Los Angeles, a lot of
• 6:35
  Speaker 7: neighbors coming together and helping each other.
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: So I think that that's been you know, you know,
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: one positive.
• 6:41
  Speaker 7: Aspect of this, of this whole affair, all right, Jeffrey,
• 6:44
  Speaker 7: our thoughts and fairs are obviously with our good friends
• 6:46
  Speaker 7: out there in Los Angeles, So you guys stay safe.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Jeffrey, we had a really really strong nonfoum payrolls a
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: number here today.
• 6:54
  Speaker 3: What were your takeaways.
• 6:56
  Speaker 7: I mean, I think it's marvelous. I mean, all things considered.
• 6:58
  Speaker 7: You know, I'm usually very up beat. It's kind of
• 7:01
  Speaker 7: hard to be upbeat, you know, here in LA on
• 7:03
  Speaker 7: a day like this, but you know, the job's data
• 7:05
  Speaker 7: is excellent.
• 7:07
  Speaker 5: You know. I guess a few myths that have been debunked.
• 7:10
  Speaker 7: One was that, you know, Paul high rates, we're going
• 7:12
  Speaker 7: to derail the economy.
• 7:14
  Speaker 5: It just really hasn't happened.
• 7:16
  Speaker 7: Average payroll growth in twenty twenty four, I guess when
• 7:20
  Speaker 7: all things are said and done, looks like it'll be
• 7:21
  Speaker 7: around one hundred and eighty six thousand monthly average pace,
• 7:25
  Speaker 7: which is a little bit slower than twenty twenty three,
• 7:27
  Speaker 7: but excellent job growth. It's keeping that unemployment rate just
• 7:31
  Speaker 7: above four percent for the last seven months, really, which
• 7:34
  Speaker 7: is really remarkable the stability we're seeing there. So I
• 7:37
  Speaker 7: think this is a great jobs report all things considered.
• 7:41
  Speaker 7: If inflation continues to moderate, this is really the soft
• 7:45
  Speaker 7: landing that we had been hoping for, and definitely the
• 7:48
  Speaker 7: FED has been hoping for it. So it's all around
• 7:49
  Speaker 7: great news actually on all fronts for me.
• 7:52
  Speaker 6: So, Jeffrey, this was obviously good news and when we
• 7:55
  Speaker 6: think about the strength of the US economy, But of
• 7:57
  Speaker 6: course there are some speculations about how this could affect
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: the Fed's rate cut trajectory. Of course, you mentioned that
• 8:02
  Speaker 6: there is still scope for rate cuts in twenty twenty five,
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: but when what's the timeline being in your view.
• 8:09
  Speaker 7: I think the most important message for investors is that
• 8:12
  Speaker 7: the FED is not trying to slow the economy or
• 8:16
  Speaker 7: soften the labor market. I think the very content with
• 8:19
  Speaker 7: where things are. As far as the labor market being
• 8:22
  Speaker 7: a threat to the inflation outlook, I think those risks
• 8:26
  Speaker 7: have diminished. So average hourly earnings back below four percent,
• 8:29
  Speaker 7: So we're not in that situation where we were two
• 8:33
  Speaker 7: years ago where people were worried about a wage price
• 8:36
  Speaker 7: sort of spiral. So I don't think the Fed needs
• 8:38
  Speaker 7: to try to slow the labor market. They would like
• 8:41
  Speaker 7: to stick the landing, they would like to get a
• 8:42
  Speaker 7: soft landing, but I think they can be patient from here.
• 8:46
  Speaker 7: I think for us that means waiting to see if
• 8:49
  Speaker 7: inflation continues to moderate. We got a very favorable core
• 8:54
  Speaker 7: PCEE reading for November, just you know, just before the
• 8:57
  Speaker 7: end of the year. So if we get more readings
• 9:00
  Speaker 7: like that to start twenty twenty five, I think that
• 9:02
  Speaker 7: could be very good news. So I think they could wait,
• 9:05
  Speaker 7: be patient. No urgency to cut rates, but we do
• 9:07
  Speaker 7: think they will cut rates over the course of the year.
• 9:10
  Speaker 7: Right now, we're still penciled in at one cut per quarter,
• 9:14
  Speaker 7: so about one hundred basis points, but that's really driven
• 9:16
  Speaker 7: by inflation getting back to two percent at some point.
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and it looks like, you know, I'm just looking
• 9:22
  Speaker 2: at the University of Michigan data and they have obviously
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: some one year inflation outlook five to ten year inflation
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: out looks. Both of those ticked up to about three
• 9:29
  Speaker 2: point three percent, you know, much higher, well, I guess,
• 9:31
  Speaker 2: noticeably higher than worth they were last month, and higher
• 9:34
  Speaker 2: than maybe the consensus forecast there.
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: What do you think that data reflects.
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: I think that reflects sentiment, Paul. I mean, you do.
• 9:40
  Speaker 7: Every client that I talk to, colleagues and friends and
• 9:44
  Speaker 7: family members, they're definitely worried that inflation will pick back up,
• 9:49
  Speaker 7: whether you know that's something they're seeing in their day
• 9:51
  Speaker 7: to day or it's just the fear maybe some economic
• 9:54
  Speaker 7: policy policy shifts that are going to be enacted here
• 9:57
  Speaker 7: that will push inflation back up. That's definitely power fear
• 10:00
  Speaker 7: that you hear express. So maybe that's been showing up
• 10:02
  Speaker 7: in sentiment indicators. Looking at the end, you know, the
• 10:05
  Speaker 7: actual data though for core PCE, we're pretty pretty optimistic, Paul.
• 10:09
  Speaker 5: We had that.
• 10:10
  Speaker 7: Point one percent month to month reading for November, and
• 10:13
  Speaker 7: you know, when we run the numbers, it's possible core
• 10:16
  Speaker 7: PC gets to two percent year on year by sometime
• 10:19
  Speaker 7: in the third quarter of this year. Of twenty twenty five,
• 10:22
  Speaker 7: which will be which will be fantastic news for everyone,
• 10:25
  Speaker 7: for consumers especially, So I think that's maybe sentiment driving
• 10:30
  Speaker 7: things more than actual inflation data that we're seeing.
• 10:33
  Speaker 6: Jeffrey quickly, what was the driving force behind the pickup
• 10:36
  Speaker 6: in the December payrolls numbers?
• 10:39
  Speaker 7: Well, I mean, I think, you know, across the board,
• 10:42
  Speaker 7: the surprise here is probably the government payrolls that being
• 10:46
  Speaker 7: in there, leisure and hospitality. I think overall, just everyone's
• 10:52
  Speaker 7: expecting that the higher interest rates we're going to lead
• 10:54
  Speaker 7: to a cool down, a bit more notable slowdown, and
• 10:58
  Speaker 7: we really, we really haven't seen that. The The three
• 11:00
  Speaker 7: month moving average was one hundred and seventy k so
• 11:03
  Speaker 7: even if you exclude the December reading, you still see
• 11:07
  Speaker 7: pretty solid three month average.
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: So just a lot more.
• 11:11
  Speaker 7: Resilience overall in the pace of payrolls the last few months,
• 11:15
  Speaker 7: and many people had expected.
• 11:16
  Speaker 3: Hie.
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: Jeffrey, thank you so much for We appreciate it. Jeffrey Cleveland,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: chief economist, paid in Narrigo. He is based in Los Angeles,
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: so we wish him and all our good friends in
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: Los Angeles god speed here as they deal with this
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: these fires.
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: Here you're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence podcast. Catch us
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: live weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple Coarclay, and
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: The economic data point of the day, of course, was the.
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: Labor data payroll number coming out change non farm payroll
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: came out in two hundred and fifty six thousand, and
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: consentsus was one hundred and sixty five thousand, So a
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: big beat in terms of the labor marketing receiving movement
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: in the financial markets.
• 12:00
  Speaker 3: Old of that, let's break that number down a little bit.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: We can do that with Kate Dushane, CEO of RGP. Kate,
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: thanks so much for joining us here. Again, a big print,
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: big beat on that headline print.
• 12:13
  Speaker 3: What did you take away?
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: Well?
• 12:15
  Speaker 8: I think that tells us that the labor market continues
• 12:19
  Speaker 8: to be very strong. I think that's a good indication,
• 12:22
  Speaker 8: although it will put a pause probably on interest rate cuts,
• 12:27
  Speaker 8: but it does tell us that the market is stronger
• 12:29
  Speaker 8: than we've all believed.
• 12:33
  Speaker 6: How are you thinking about it? In the mix of
• 12:35
  Speaker 6: the outlook for how the FAG can be viewing rake
• 12:38
  Speaker 6: cuts in twenty twenty five.
• 12:40
  Speaker 8: Well, I think it probably portends a pause in January
• 12:44
  Speaker 8: and we'll see where we go. What we need to
• 12:48
  Speaker 8: see is more movement in the labor market, not just
• 12:52
  Speaker 8: new jobs, but movement that really tells us that projects
• 12:59
  Speaker 8: are starting to have up and so many companies are
• 13:02
  Speaker 8: facing technological change and disruption, and we need to see
• 13:08
  Speaker 8: more transactional work come back into the marketplace, and that
• 13:14
  Speaker 8: then will signal that really post election, the economic market
• 13:20
  Speaker 8: is improving.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Kate, how about on the wage front here, we had
• 13:24
  Speaker 2: average hourly earnings on a year of a year basis
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: came in a positive three point nine percent, just a
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: smidge below the four percent consensus.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: What's the wage market look like.
• 13:34
  Speaker 8: Well, I think it's been strong, but it's i'd say
• 13:38
  Speaker 8: cooling slightly. This is an interesting time of year because
• 13:41
  Speaker 8: the quits rate is down, but that's to be expected
• 13:44
  Speaker 8: given that so many companies are year end and they
• 13:48
  Speaker 8: are paying bonuses in the first quarter of the new
• 13:50
  Speaker 8: calendar year, so people tend to stay put a little
• 13:53
  Speaker 8: bit to get their bonuses and then start moving around.
• 13:56
  Speaker 8: We are cautiously optimistic that we're going to start seeing
• 14:00
  Speaker 8: more talent movement. It's been pretty stagnant the last twelve
• 14:04
  Speaker 8: months as people have gotten more conservative in their thinking,
• 14:09
  Speaker 8: both clients spending money and talent moving. But we're cautiously
• 14:13
  Speaker 8: optimistic that that's opening up in the new calendar year
• 14:17
  Speaker 8: post election, when economic activity may pick up with deregulation,
• 14:23
  Speaker 8: tax cuts, etc.
• 14:25
  Speaker 6: What were the main drivers behind this big blowout report?
• 14:28
  Speaker 6: We saw a big beat this morning. What was driving that?
• 14:32
  Speaker 8: Yeah, mostly it was in retail, hospitality, healthcare, and government.
• 14:37
  Speaker 8: So you know, you have to look at where the
• 14:39
  Speaker 8: activity is strongest, and it's not absolutely across the board.
• 14:43
  Speaker 8: I think manufacturing was down as a matter of fact,
• 14:47
  Speaker 8: So you know, when you look at a report like this,
• 14:49
  Speaker 8: you've got to dig into the detail to say how
• 14:52
  Speaker 8: does it impact particular segments of business.
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: We had news this week that's really important too, Global
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: Wall Street JP Morgan announced they want everybody back in
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: the office five days a week, and that follows on
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: some other big tech companies like Amazon making similar announcements.
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: Are we going to see some change here? I kind
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: of felt like the status quo was a hybrid thing,
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: but it still seems like some big companies want to
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: get their people back full.
• 15:17
  Speaker 8: Time, right, So we work with some of the best
• 15:21
  Speaker 8: brands in the world. We work with eighty eight percent
• 15:23
  Speaker 8: of the Fortune five hundred, so we have a good
• 15:26
  Speaker 8: pulse of what's happening in the workplace. And I would
• 15:29
  Speaker 8: say absolutely the dominant trend is still a hybrid environment.
• 15:35
  Speaker 8: So many highly skilled employees say they will not go
• 15:39
  Speaker 8: back full time. So I think that while certain companies
• 15:43
  Speaker 8: are laying down these mandates very hard to enforce them,
• 15:47
  Speaker 8: very hard to keep high potentials who don't want to
• 15:50
  Speaker 8: work that way anymore. So clearly what we see across
• 15:53
  Speaker 8: the board in our client base is a hybrid approach
• 15:56
  Speaker 8: two to three days a week in the office for collaboration,
• 16:00
  Speaker 8: learning together, and some flexibility, which is what high performing
• 16:04
  Speaker 8: talent wants.
• 16:06
  Speaker 3: All right, Kate, thank you so much. We appreciate that.
• 16:08
  Speaker 2: Kate to Shane, CEO of our GP, I don't know.
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: I kind of feel like we're seeing a little bit
• 16:14
  Speaker 2: of a move and a pendulum back to more.
• 16:17
  Speaker 3: In office versus less definitely in office.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: I don't know, but I mean, Kate again, she talks
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: to all these Fortune five hundred companies. I think a
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: lot of people I can still push back on that.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: We have to see that plays out.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: weekdays at ten am Eastern on Apple, Cocklay and Android
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: All right, normal, Linda, and for Alex Steel here today,
• 16:47
  Speaker 2: I'm Paul Sweeting. We're live on our Bloomberg Interactive Broker studio.
• 16:50
  Speaker 2: We're streaming live on YouTube as well. Of course, the
• 16:53
  Speaker 2: big news story of the week have been the terrible
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: fires in Los Angeles and we've been trying to get
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: some different angles on that all week. Will Wade joins
• 17:04
  Speaker 2: this energy and climate reporter for Bloomberg News. Well, thanks
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: so much. I appreciate getting some time here. We want
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: to talk to you about the Constellation deal as well
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: in the energy space.
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: But first, anything to add on these LA fires.
• 17:17
  Speaker 9: I mean, the fires are just tragic, They're huge. We
• 17:21
  Speaker 9: see that Cawfires just ranked the Palisades fire as the
• 17:25
  Speaker 9: third most damaging in state history. To Eton one is
• 17:27
  Speaker 9: right behind it is the fourth, and of course the
• 17:30
  Speaker 9: worst was the twenty eighteen campfire that destroyed the entire
• 17:33
  Speaker 9: city of Palisades. But these things are still burning, and
• 17:36
  Speaker 9: you know, there's still one hundred and fifty thousand people
• 17:38
  Speaker 9: that are under evacuation order, including some of my family.
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: Talk to us about that. Do you have some of
• 17:42
  Speaker 3: your family in that part of the world.
• 17:44
  Speaker 10: Sure.
• 17:45
  Speaker 9: My aunt lives in North Pasadena. She was evacuated on Tuesday.
• 17:50
  Speaker 9: She's doing fine, she's rattled, but I've been tracking the
• 17:53
  Speaker 9: progress of the fire. It's kind of getting closer to
• 17:56
  Speaker 9: her house. I really hope it does fine. It's actually
• 17:59
  Speaker 9: a really nice house. Use it onto the Apple TV
• 18:02
  Speaker 9: show Shrinking. Yeah, it's a really nice place. And then
• 18:07
  Speaker 9: I heard from my mom yesterday. She said, Hey, remember
• 18:10
  Speaker 9: that restaurant I took you to brunch last summer.
• 18:13
  Speaker 11: When you were visiting. Yeah, it burned down. That was
• 18:15
  Speaker 11: up on North Lake Street. So it feels very personal
• 18:19
  Speaker 11: to me.
• 18:20
  Speaker 3: Yep, more and more stories coming out.
• 18:21
  Speaker 11: Yeah.
• 18:21
  Speaker 6: I mean, when you think about a lot of these stories,
• 18:23
  Speaker 6: some people didn't even have the opportunity to go back
• 18:25
  Speaker 6: to their homes to grab items, especially as the evacuations
• 18:28
  Speaker 6: have been in place. Have your family member spoken at
• 18:31
  Speaker 6: all to that experience or what have you been hearing
• 18:33
  Speaker 6: on the ground.
• 18:35
  Speaker 9: I know that my mom was telling me that her
• 18:38
  Speaker 9: aunt left and my aunt left in such a hurry.
• 18:40
  Speaker 9: She left some important medication behind and they were able
• 18:45
  Speaker 9: to go back and get that, and neighborhood was able
• 18:46
  Speaker 9: to get in.
• 18:47
  Speaker 10: But it's unclear when they're going to be able to
• 18:49
  Speaker 10: go back.
• 18:51
  Speaker 9: They're not very contained right now. Palisades fire is still
• 18:56
  Speaker 9: only like eight percent contained, and they eaten one that's
• 18:59
  Speaker 9: the one in Pacity is only three percent contained.
• 19:01
  Speaker 10: Those are not big numbers.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, absolutely, all right, Well, hopefully some good news coming
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: out of that part of the world soon. Let's talk
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: about in your world of reporting. Their Constellation Energy surged
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: after agreed to acquire closely held Calpine Core before sixteen
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: point four billion to create the largest fleet of US
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: power stations.
• 19:22
  Speaker 3: Talk to us about this deal. What's going on here?
• 19:25
  Speaker 9: So Constellation already is notable. They have the biggest fleet
• 19:29
  Speaker 9: of nuclear power plants, and their shares have gone up
• 19:33
  Speaker 9: like more than one hundred percent in the past year
• 19:36
  Speaker 9: because like the last year, all we've seen in electricity
• 19:39
  Speaker 9: is more and more demand for electricity from data centers
• 19:43
  Speaker 9: and artificial intelligence and electric vehicles and people shifting their
• 19:48
  Speaker 9: homes to electric heating and gas heating, and basically anyone
• 19:52
  Speaker 9: who's got electricity to sell isn't a really strong position.
• 19:56
  Speaker 9: So Constellation went out and bought Calpine, which is the
• 20:00
  Speaker 9: biggest gas provider. They've got the biggest fleet of gas
• 20:03
  Speaker 9: power plants, and so now they're going to have together
• 20:07
  Speaker 9: the biggest power plant fleet.
• 20:09
  Speaker 11: In the entire United States. It's going to be enormous.
• 20:12
  Speaker 9: And it comes to time when power demand is just
• 20:15
  Speaker 9: going up in ways that we haven't seen in decades,
• 20:20
  Speaker 9: and the utilities weren't really ready for this that we
• 20:22
  Speaker 9: didn't see the AI boom coming a year ago. And
• 20:26
  Speaker 9: so now if you have a power plant, you're in
• 20:30
  Speaker 9: a great place, and it takes years to build moolence.
• 20:34
  Speaker 6: Is this transaction setting the tone for iminate activity in
• 20:37
  Speaker 6: the energy space? More broadly, what's the outlook for the
• 20:39
  Speaker 6: return of more deals in twenty twenty five.
• 20:42
  Speaker 9: We could see more. I'm hearing a lot of people
• 20:45
  Speaker 9: talking about interest in energy transactions. And it used to
• 20:48
  Speaker 9: be one of the sleepiest corners of the of the
• 20:52
  Speaker 9: M and A space. People thought, you know, power plants
• 20:55
  Speaker 9: were just like super boring assets.
• 20:58
  Speaker 10: They just make power and sell power.
• 21:00
  Speaker 9: And utilities have reliable dividends that your grandmothers always love.
• 21:04
  Speaker 9: But the share prices for so many of these companies
• 21:07
  Speaker 9: have just surged in the past year. So I mean
• 21:09
  Speaker 9: it's given them money to go shopping.
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: Well, let's step back in your space, just the greater
• 21:14
  Speaker 2: energy space here.
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: Where does nuclear fit in here?
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: We've had some entrepreneurs come in here and say, hey,
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: we've got some new technology. You tiny little nuclear plan,
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: I'll put it next to a big, you know, data center,
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: and we're all, it's a good way, it's a good option.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: It talk to us about that type of stuff.
• 21:32
  Speaker 9: Okay, So on paper, that sounds like the perfect combination.
• 21:36
  Speaker 9: These small modular reactors can go next to the data centers.
• 21:40
  Speaker 9: The reactors run around the clock, the data centers run
• 21:43
  Speaker 9: around the clock.
• 21:44
  Speaker 10: It makes a lot of sense.
• 21:46
  Speaker 9: The thing to keep in mind is the time frame,
• 21:49
  Speaker 9: because we're not going to see any of these.
• 21:51
  Speaker 10: New reactors for years, maybe.
• 21:54
  Speaker 9: A couple by the end of the decade, most likely
• 21:56
  Speaker 9: a twenty thirties thing. But these are just very very
• 22:00
  Speaker 9: very slow moving projects. And the data center companies they
• 22:04
  Speaker 9: want as much power as they can get, like yesterday,
• 22:07
  Speaker 9: they need it now.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: Yep. All right, So maybe we're going to see a
• 22:10
  Speaker 3: lot of gas.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, I think you're right, and I think we've
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: got some of that in this country.
• 22:14
  Speaker 5: Will wait.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Thanks so much for joining us. We'll wait.
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: Energy and Climate reporter for Bloomberg News joining us via
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: zoom And we appreciate getting sharing some of his family
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: experiences that some of his family members are having out
• 22:25
  Speaker 2: there in Los Angeles as those folks continue to deal
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: with a very very difficult situation. And we heard from
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: Rob Carolin Bloomberg Meteorologists earlier in the hour a couple
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: of days here of some reduced wins maybe throughout the weekend,
• 22:38
  Speaker 2: and that's a would be a big help. But then unfortunately,
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: the forecast calls for those winds to pick up next week,
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: so maybe the firefighters can get a better handle on
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: some of these fires over the next several days.
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: weekday to newon Eastern on Bloomberg dot Com, the iHeartRadio app,
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: the Bloomberg terminal