Latest / The Jon Sanchez Show / Ceasefire or Setup? Why the Iran Deal May Not Hold—and What It Means for Markets
Transcript
- Jon G. Sanchez, CEO: Good Wednesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the Jon Sanchez Show on News Talk 780K OH. It's a pleasure to be with you on this big rally day. Oh, what a day it was. Matter of fact, biggest day gain going back to April of last year for the S &P 500. Dow was strong. NASDAQ was strong. Oil prices tumbling. Bond yields coming down. On the surface, it looked like the most perfect day in the world, right? Everything that we wanted. You know, it was right here on this show yesterday that the news broke that the president decided to postpone the that was supposed to occur at 5 p.m. last night. Told the world we're gonna go on a 45 day. hiatus from anything going on. No more bombings, no more nothing. Cease fire. And I said last night, if you caught my tone, and if you would have seen me, you could have if you tune into YouTube, I kind of had one eyebrow up and one eyebrow down when that news broke. I'll be honest, I was very skeptical. And I'm even more skeptical today. And I want to just kind of lay the table perfectly for you. Those of you that have followed me for... 20 plus years that I've been on this radio station know that I'm one of the most optimistic persons out there. But after you do this for a while, you kind of start to get a little jaded on headlines. Because headlines move markets on a short-term basis. solidified that's what moves markets on a permanent basis. And I've been saying for weeks upon weeks I just don't see an easy way out of this war. And therefore an easy way out of this stock market to stop the volatility. But today the market's rallied on the news. what's my problem? My problem is this. Our demands their demands are light years apart. And when I made up today's show tease, ceasefire or a set up, why the Iran deal may not hold, at about nine o'clock, actually about 9.30 this morning is when I made up the show tease, the show topic. I had no idea that just one hour ago, Iran came out and said, the United States has already violated the ceasefire agreement. They've done two things. This is from the Iranian parliamentary speaker. So it's already started. But again, not long after I made up my show tease this morning, here the news indicating that Iran already shut down the Strait of Hormuz. Now remember, this was the critical portion of the 45-day ceasefire that we required. Open up the Strait of Hormuz, get the traffic going, oil prices will come down, everybody will be happy, we'll deal with all the other things later. Well, not more than a couple hours after the stock market started trading, news came out. Iran already shut down the Strait of Hormuz. At that point, only two ships had gone through. And then they shut it down. So then I start thinking to myself, well, wait a minute here. This is gonna be something that'll bring the market down, right? This is bad news. This is already, breaking the 45-day ceasefire. But then I thought, you know, we need to dig deeper into we want and what Iran wants. Because as you heard the president yesterday indicate, the only way this 45-day ceasefire is going to work is if the Strait of Hormuz is opened. But again, when the news came out today that the Strait of Hormuz got closed already, you would thought the market would have pulled back on that news, but it didn't. Matter of fact, it dipped us a little bit, but by the time the closing bell rang, it moved right back up. We're up about 1,065 or so when that news came out, finished up 1,325 on the Dow. So why is the market not paying attention to this? Because it's trading off of headlines. This is what I wanna caution everybody about. The algorithms driving this market as they have for many, many years. But even as time goes on, they drive it even more. And you see, algorithms have no feelings. They have no common sense. They're programmed to say, if this happens, i.e. a ceasefire agreement or any positive news, rally the market. If bad news happens, Right now, they seem to be, OK, well, we'll kind of push it aside. And to me, that seems to be a very dangerous environment. So what am I gonna discuss with you? Well, I'm gonna go through again, the big moves of today's market. Again, love it, absolutely love it, strong day. But my job is not to sit here and be a cheerleader for you and say, folks, ⁓ is okay. Don't, ⁓ know, we're go sing Kumbaya with Iran and Israel's gonna join in and we're gonna hold hands and we're gonna dance around a campfire and say, ⁓ everything just fine. As the press is trying to make it out to be. where common sense is going to prevail, in my opinion, is the following. What are the 10 items Iran said they must have in order for the ceasefire to hold? What are the 15 that they just released this morning, by the way? What are the 15 items that the US demanded back on my birthday on March 24th? Well, I've got those lists. And you're going to find, as I share those with you, that there's got to be some very, very serious, I won't even say negotiations, but how about eliminations either the 10-point list from Iran, the 15-point list from the US for this 45-day ceasefire hold? Because again, you're to be as shocked as I am. They're not realistic on either side. Now you may say, okay, well, you the art of the deal, Made by the president back in the 80s, the art of the deal. We all read the book. You ask for everything and then you come into middle, come into the agreement, right? But you start at the top. Well, what is again, as I'll share this with you, when I looked over this list of the 10 and the 15 points, I'm thinking, yeah, we're both sides are really asking for the world, which again, part of of negotiations. But where's that going to lead things to when Jared Kushner and a few other people go to Pakistan this weekend, as it was announced today, to try to negotiate? Because remember Pakistan's in the middle of this whole thing. Are they just going to rip up list, the wants, and start over? You see, that's been one of my biggest concerns of this conflict. And I've said this so many times, and mean it even more now. You may be thinking, well, wait a minute, why are you saying that now after a big run up like we had? Because I'll get right to the chase. I don't we are out of the woods yet. Again, I'm an optimistic person, as all of you know. But I don't believe this thing is going to come to an end. I don't personally I'll make it even worse. I don't think this 45-day ceasefire is going to hold. Now, what already got broken, as I'll go through, I want to share with you what Iranian parliamentary speaker said just an hour ago. But also, let me throw this into there, because I know many of you were so hard at work today and you didn't get a chance to follow the news. So last night, Israel continued to bomb Iran. They continued to bomb various parts of Iran where Hezbollah was. There was no ceasefire. Iran said, a minute here, this where Hezbollah is located, that's not part of the deal. Iran said, well, ⁓ wait minute, yes it is. You're not to do any bombing against us, no matter where it is, no matter what groups are there. Israel said, nope, not part of the deal. So there was the first confusion this morning. Conversely overnight, and again, this all came after this 45 day ceasefire agreement was announced last night that Iran supposedly agreed to. I ran last night, since drones and rockets and everything else, once again to Kuwait, to many other parts, UAE, et cetera. They continued just like normal. So where's all the excitement? How would this generate a 1300 point gain in the market? because of optimism. You see, the algorithms and the human traders that are behind it, which again, they don't really move the market anymore, it's the algorithms, are going off the headline. 45 days ceasefire. I'm telling you, let's bring in some human, know, thinking into this, some human sense. And let's be cautious, because again, I don't think this thing is gonna hold. I really don't. And I hate to be pessimistic, but. Once again, you're always gonna get the truth for how I feel about things. So we come back from the break, I'm gonna start things off, I'll recap what happened today, hit the averages commodities, et cetera. And then I wanna go straight to the story from the ⁓ Iranian speaker who said just an hour ago, look it, two things already been violated. And you know as well as I do, by them coming out and saying that, That's gonna give them a get out of jail free card to continue bombings and missile strikes and so on and so forth tonight, or at least our nighttime. Because they're gonna come back and say, hey, you already violated two of the agreements that we wanted, two of the wants, so therefore we can justify continuing this. That on top of them, again, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. It's a mess, folks. And again, I wish I could be so giddy and excited as I used to be when I was younger, when I would see a big massive day like this and say, oh, things are great. But you know, when you get a little bit older and you get a little bit wiser and you get a few gray hairs in your head, you got to go, all right, let's use some common sense. Let's go back and have a little experience on this. And that's what I'm going to be focusing on with you. Is that a ceasefire or is it a setup to more turmoil to come? Let's turn it over to Kristen Snow. She's in the Right Now Traffic Center. Hello, Kristen. Welcome back to the Jon Sanchez Show and News Talk 780KOH. right. Here's the wonderful news of the day. 1,325 point gain on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Pretty amazing, right? 1,325 points. That equates to a 2.85 % rise. Closing at 47,909. NASDAQ gained 617 points, 2.8%. Closing at 22,634. S &P 500 up 166 points, 2.51%. Closing at 6,782. Is this a ceasefire that can last, or is this just a setup for more turmoil ahead? That's my theme for today. in the program, when we come back from the bottom of the hour break, I'm going to delve deep into what's holding this whole thing together, or at least supposedly. Our 15-point plan, Iran's 10-point plan that they just released this morning. All right, let's hit the oil side of things. Oil tumbling today, $18.45 lost $94.40 a barrel. rose $90.70, close in ⁓ 4,076.70 an ounce. here's other point I wanna mention. You've heard me say thousands of times on this show. The bond market is the driver of the bus, the stock market is the passenger. Wouldn't you think today, where we rally almost 3 % on the Dow, almost 3 % on the NASDAQ, 2.5 % on the S &P, that bond yields would plummet? see the bond markets feeling the way that I am. They don't believe this deal. Well, they lost five basis points today on the 10-year treasury, closes 4.29%. Bond market, very skeptical of this situation, very skeptical. Okay, so let's get down to the meat of today's show. You're now up to date. I'm sure many of you have already seen what happened in the market. But let's bring you up to date on the events. then like I said, when come back from the bottom of the hour break, we'll get into and let you make the decision. How can we come together in this deal? How can we come together? When have 15 points we want, they have 10. Yep, there's negotiations. But I just don't see it happening. And again, I'm going to share with you here right now what Iranian parliamentary said just about an hour ago before the show started. Now, before I that, let's go back to again, around this time when the president announced the 45-day ceasefire. His main was that the Strait of Hormuz was to open, quote, and this is a quote, without limitation. including tolls without limitation, including tolls. Wait a minute, tolls. I found a new story that didn't, didn't make any of the major headlines. It was a quote from the president. I don't know how long ago it was. I think it was within the last week. There's no date on there. That he actually talked to the press about going into partnership with Iran to charge tolls of the ships. I mean, I'm talking millions of dollars. for a ship to safely make it through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's where that comment comes in. Without limitation, including tolls. Once again, if you just joined us, everything was fine, the strait was open. Early this morning, I'm talking our time, comes out and says, nope, we're not gonna open the strait anymore, we're closing it right now. Couple ships got through, and so now you go, well wait a minute, this was Trump's main criteria for the 45-day ceasefire, open the strait without limitations, including tolls. Well, we don't have that. So there's violation number one. right, so let's get to the story that, could affect us tomorrow. So according to the Iranian parliamentary speaker, he says the US has violated the ceasefire agreement already. He's accused the of violating the two-week ceasefire, three points. Now, he did not go on to say what the three points were, but he did say the following quote. He said, the deep historical distrust we hold toward the United States from its repeated violations of all forms of commitments, a pattern that has regrettably been repeated once again. Three parts of Iran's 10-point ceasefire, and again, I'm gonna read to you when we come back, we'll discuss the 10-point plan. Three parts of Iran's 10-point ceasefire plan proposal have been violated, he said. violations are Israel's continued attacks on Lebanon, the of a drone into Iranian airspace, and the of the Islamic Republic's right to enrich uranium. Now where I'm confused on this, this last one, the enrichment of uranium, was again on the 10 point plan. But how that was violated already, I don't know. But I'll tell you again what was made available this morning, there was nothing in there saying you couldn't ⁓ move drone into Iranian airspace, so not sure that one. Israel's continued attack on Lebanon. Yeah, but again as I told you at beginning of the show Israel has said Lebanon's off off off limit. That's not part of the deal Our answer is oh, yeah, no, that's part of it. You know, so no one's supposed to be hurting anybody in in Israel No more no more bombings. No more nothing. Yeah, right Quote, in such situation a bilateral ceasefire or negotiation is unreasonable, the parliamentary speaker said. Let me read that again. In such situation, a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable. White House had no comment. Again, his statements come just a day, less than a day after the president announced this ceasefire. Over to the Strait of Hormuz, Iran state news agency Fars said earlier today that oil tanker traffic through the Strait has been halted as Israel continues to attack Lebanon. The amount of tanker traffic through the Strait has plunged during the war, of course. As I said, news reports had it this morning that two ships got through. That was it before they shut it back down again. So here we find ourselves in a situation where we don't know who to believe. We don't know again how this whole situation is gonna unfold over the next 45 days. But as I've said over and over again, just in my mind, being on this earth for 62 years and these situations unfold, I just don't see how after such devastation and destruction was done in Iran, that all of a sudden the US can say, all right, 45 day reprieval. I just see it. And what you're learn when I share with you Iran's 10 point plan. They want the United States of America to pay them rebuild the country. That's right. Believe it or not. That's what I mean. That's why what are asking for is so unreasonable. And you have to, like I said before, you have to kind of sit back and go, OK, negotiations. You ask for the world, and then you settle for something in between. But and I'll let you be the judge. This is just my opinion. When I share with you these 10 points, I don't see one of them that are realistic. So do they scratch it when negotiations begin? Do they scratch this entire 10 point plan and go, OK, let's go back to the drawing board. I know we asked for these 10 things. We know they're unrealistic. But here's really we want. Who knows? But can this market continue this rally based upon all of these unknowns? And again, according to Iran, three violations of the ceasefire agreement less than 24 hours after it was announced. And no comments coming out of the White House today. Very, very quiet on this whole issue. That part has me nervous also. All right, prepared. 10 point plan, 15 point plan, I'll lay it out ⁓ as we ceasefire or set up. Why the Iranian deal may not hold in my opinion. Let's turn it over to Jack Saban. He's got news traffic with our hello Jack. Welcome back to the Jon Sanchez Show on News Talk 780K OH. All right, let's get down to the meat of today show. The meat and potatoes as we call it. The 10-point plan offered by Iran today to continue the 45-day ceasefire and maybe end the war. The US's 15-point plan, which again was given back on March the 24th. But in the meantime, here's how we finished. If you just joined us, a 1,325-point gain on the Dow, 2.85 % today. NASDAQ up 617, 2.8%, S &P gaining 166 points, 2.51%, oil plunging $18.45 to 94.40. As I was just telling my producer during the break, we have the market starting to sell off a little bit here, and I just mean that tongue in cheek, just down a bit. Down 42 right now on the Dow futures, NASDAQ's gonna lower by 47, the S &P is giving up 10. But more importantly, guess what's starting to move up? Oil prices. but they're moving fast now. a $2.70 gain to 97.11 a barrel. so of my show today is absolutely perfect. Ceasefire or set up? I don't the ceasefire is gonna hold. That's the gist of this. Okay, let's get down to this plan. Okay, as I with you the prior segment, the was very adamant in this 45 day plan that the only way, 45 day ceasefire, the only way it's gonna hold is that the Strait of Hormuz is open. Unconditionally, no tolls, nothing. If you just join us once again, that happened overnight after the announcement of the 45-day ceasefire. But early this morning, Iran said, nope, it's closed again. We're not letting anybody through. A couple ships made it through. That was it. So now it's already done, right? No more opening. So surprised the president didn't come out today and say, whoa, wait a minute here. That wasn't part of the deal, right? We said this 45 days is going to, it's hinging upon the strait being open. But we haven't heard anything today. What we did hear from the White House today was the 10-point plan that Iran proposed to them. It came out this morning in a social media post. They didn't even give it to the US, supposedly. Again, the US picked it up on a social media post. So let's get down to this review it. I will tell you, the president did say today that these 10 points are a workable basis on which to negotiate. Now we're news, N-O-U-R, Now we're News, which is an Iranian publication backed by the Iranian Supreme National Council, published this list. Again, came out this morning. Here we go. So as I read these to you, think to yourself from a common sense, logical situation, do you really think that the U.S. is going to do any of these 10? Not just one or two, but any of these 10? And then when I get done, I'll come back with our 15. Here we go. Number one, Iranians list. The US must fundamentally commit to guaranteeing So, what does that mean in English? No fighting. We know that's not gonna happen. Number two, continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. Now wanna stop right there for a second. Many strategists, war strategists, as well oil traders, et cetera, are saying, you know what, this thing has really. worked out in the favor of Iran in regards to oil prices because they are now really controlling the Strait of Hormuz and they got the world by the you know what's and they're controlling everything and that's why they said continuation of Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz. Well that right there again that's not what the president said this you know as far as this 45 days ceasefire. Okay, out of two, we're batting. Let's go to number three. You're gonna love this one. Ready? Acceptance of Iran's control, I'm sorry, acceptance that Iran can enrich uranium for its nuclear program. Isn't this quote, the reason that we're started this whole war? So Iran couldn't have a nuke? And now Iran says, We want the US to accept that we can enrich uranium for our nuclear program. I'll stop right there. president came out today and said, hey, guess what? We're ⁓ to negotiate ⁓ uranium situation with Iran. we've to send our people over there to help them dig all this up. Because a lot of this is dug way down deep into the earth. And so the president offered we would send our people over to ⁓ help the Iranian dig this out of the ground. I can't make this up. Okay, here's the fourth point on Iran's 10-point plan. Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran. Removal of all primary sanctions on Iran. Remember, there's assets that are frozen, there's all kinds of things. The president did come out today and say, country in the world that is selling arms to Iran will immediately face a 50 % tariff. So, point number five. Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities that do business with Iranian institutions. Removal of all secondary sanctions against foreign entities. So that's the reason that the president said what he did. Number six, of ⁓ United Security Council resolutions targeting Iran. Number seven, end of all International Atomic Energy Agency resolutions on Iran's nuclear program. So basically they want to be able to continue doing everything they were doing before as far as the nuclear weapons are concerned. They don't want anybody muddling in on this. Here's the one that really makes me laugh. Compensation payment to Iran for war damage. So they want us to turn around and write a check for God knows what that dollar amount would be. nine, ⁓ this is another really good one. Withdraw of US combat forces from the region. Okay, so we're supposed to just pack up and head out of there. And then lastly, number 10. Ceasefire all fronts, including Israel's conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon. This is what I was saying earlier. Last night, again, right after the ceasefire was announced, Israel attacked Lebanon because Hezbollah is there. So now Iran says, nope, nope, we don't want that. And that's where this disagreement came in overnight where Israel said, nope, wasn't in the agreement or of the ceasefire, so therefore, we're gonna continue to attack you in Lebanon. So think about that for a second. How can you have a ceasefire in certain parts of the country but not a ceasefire in other parts of the country? So that makes absolutely no sense. So that you know the 10 points, do you see even one that is realistic? I don't. So how can this ⁓ ceasefire hold up? Now this is almost old news, but I thought you would enjoy it because again, this is about what we want out of the deal. And you're gonna find that it's quite opposite in factors of what Iran has agreed to or wants this morning. So here we go, this was again released, this is what we told Iran we wanted on our 15 point plan on March 24th. First one, nuclear program dismantling. Shut down nuclear facilities in Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordow. Okay, so shut down nuclear. But Iran wants to enrich their uranium. Number two, enrichment. Immediate ban on all uranium enrichments on Iranian soil. No, Iran said no, they wanna do that. Number three, stockpile handover. Hand over all highly enriched uranium to the international. So that's the nuclear organization. Number four, permanent non-nuclear commitment. Iran must pledge never to seek or develop nuclear weapons. Number IAEA access, and unrestricted IAEA monitoring of all nuclear sites. To opposite of Iran said they would Number seven, in-missile development. strict limits on the quantity and range of Iran's ballistic missiles. Next one, proxy support halt, cease funding of an arming of regional allies such as Hezbollah and Hamas. Next, regional de-escalation, stop attacks on energy facilities and regional neighbors. Next point, Strait of Hormuz. the safe and open passage of ships in the waterway. Our next demand. Sanction relief, the U.S. may support the lifting of international sanctions. Next, unfreezing assets, the return of frozen Iranian assets as part of a final deal. Diplomatic and economic incentives, potential US support for civilian energy projects. Bush hair plant is what they call them. The next one, long term stability, binding UN Security Council resolutions to submit the agreement. Next point, now remember this was issued on March 24th that we gave them. Ceasefire, a one month initial ceasefire to initiate negotiations. the 15th point, withdrawal of threats, termination of US military strikes against Iran. So it was almost like now that you've heard both sides, very similar. Now you see why Iran issued their 10-point rebuttal this morning. They almost went line by line. Obviously, they had 10 points. We gave them 15. But almost went line by line and said, you're saying you want this? No, we want just the opposite. No, you're saying you want this point? No, we want just the opposite. So how do you negotiate over these next 45 days with that being so far behind? That's the real question we must ask ourselves. All right, we'll come back and wrap things up. Let's turn it over to Kristen Snow right now. Traffic Center, Kristen. Mike the Jon Sanchez showing news talk 780 k oh alright you've now heard the difference right we're miles apart what Iran wants what the u.s. Wants we've got a 45-day ceasefire but yet missiles are still firing Trump administration today said you know we think there was this this major understanding that you know Lebanon was was part of this negotiation 45-day ceasefire Israel says no we wanted that it shouldn't be and again we Israel bombed them last night we'll see what happens tonight So where do we go with all this? Now that we know both sides, we also know one thing. You and I know a fraction of what really is going on behind the scenes. Tell you something that did make me feel good. I was perusing the Wall Street Journal's website during this last break. And lo and behold, right on the front page, it's everything I just went over with you, comparing the 10 point plan to the 15 point plan. was like, geez, why didn't you guys have that up this morning? That would save me a lot of work. But anyways. But where do we go with all this? What would you need to be doing right now? Right? Because this thing, the markets are ⁓ day by day, hour by hour. I'm going to stick with my same advice for you. Even though we have a 40, 45 day ceasefire. I hope that you now kind of look at it. And I know many you are as skeptical ⁓ about as I am. So this is going to probably, you're probably going to laugh when I say this, but for those of you that are more, maybe younger and not quite so worldly experienced. You may be getting real jittery or giddy and saying, ⁓ you know what, I'm gonna dump all my money back into the market if I pulled out a little while ago when this whole thing began. Take your time. That's my best advice. your time. Let's see if this thing has any legs to stand on. Usually, again, ⁓ we get a situation such as we did yesterday where the comes out, the algorithms go crazy again. Big move in the market today, big fall in oil prices, though they're now moving up $2.40 in the South trading. One day doesn't be, doesn't ⁓ really, obviously, beginning of a trend. I always tell everyone this, no matter what the situation, doesn't have to be this war situation. Give it a day or two. Let's see what happens. But here's my best advice for you, besides being diversified and all the things I normally say. Watch the bond market. The bond market is always the cooler head versus the equity market. What you wanna look for in the bond market is, do we see a big drawdown in, or a big decline I should say, in bond yields, right? That means institutions coming in and they're piling into the bonds. That says they're nervous, okay? So again, today, bond prices were down, or bond yields were down five basis points. So they were still buying the bonds. Would they really be buying the bonds if they were that convinced? that this thing has legs to stand on. So that part worries me. So if you start to see bond yields rise, will be one of your best indications that the bond market at thinks that the ceasefire is going to hold. But if we continue to see these bond yields come down as we did today, that's your that the bond market is not convinced. And remember, folks, bond market is significantly, significantly larger than stock market. from a market capitalization standpoint. So it is an excellent indicator. So once again, watch the bond yields. If they go up, that means the bond market's convinced this thing can sustain for 45 days. the bond yields go down, like they did today, that means bond traders are very nervous that they don't think this thing has legs to stand on. That will start to the pace. Obviously watch oil prices. I don't like seeing oil now up $2.41 after the big sell-off today. That should have still continued to sell off. Why is it moving up? Because I think the oil traders, at least at this point, are saying the same thing as I am. This thing doesn't have the legs to stand on. third factor, let's see what happens this weekend. Again, JD Vance and Kushner and a few other boys are heading over to Pakistan to meet with Turkey and all the different delegates and try solidify this thing. still got a couple days to go until that happens. But in the meantime, be cautious, be diversified, pay attention, and don't miss one of the shows because I'll keep you up to date at the best that I can. God bless you. Have a great afternoon. We'll see you tomorrow on the Jon Sanchez Show.