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Houthis announce Red Sea blockade of Saudi shipping · INSIGHT TODAY

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  Speaker 1: There's another new development that could be rattling global markets,
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  Speaker 1: especially oil markets. Even more. Ron backed Houthi rebels in
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  Speaker 1: Yemen have now declared their own naval blockade, they say,
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  Speaker 1: against Saudi Arabia in the Babelmandab Straight in the Red Sea.
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  Speaker 1: That's another critical international shipping channel and oil route. And
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  Speaker 1: also there's new reporting just in today that the Houthis
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  Speaker 1: have begun broadcasting messages warning Saudi ships to stop traveling
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  Speaker 1: in the Red Sea. Joining me right now is retired
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  Speaker 1: Army Major General James spider Marx. He's the head of
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  Speaker 1: geopolitical strategy for Academy Securities. It's good to see Spider.
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  Speaker 1: Let's talk about this. I mean, the houthis now threatening
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  Speaker 1: the Babel Mundab Straight, declaring this blockade on Saudi ships
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  Speaker 1: from passing through. If this really does go into effect,
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  Speaker 1: if we now have a second major shipping channel that
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  Speaker 1: is threatened, and thus you know there will be disruption
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  Speaker 1: to it. What does that mean for the United States,
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  Speaker 1: if this becomes a new front of this war.
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  Speaker 2: Well, it's been a front in the engagement with the
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  Speaker 2: Uties in the past, as we realize. Also bear in
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  Speaker 2: mind the Saudia's over the course of about a decade
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  Speaker 2: tried to eliminate the Houties without success. Many would say
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  Speaker 2: it's difficult to try to bomb an organization back into
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  Speaker 2: the fourteenth century when they're already in the fourteenth century.
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  Speaker 2: So the Hooties have had an opportunity to really establish
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  Speaker 2: themselves over time. They've been quiet, as you know over
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  Speaker 2: the past four or five months as a result of
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  Speaker 2: epic fury, and their ability to stay in touch with Tehran,
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  Speaker 2: which is their primary lifeline for support, has been minimized
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  Speaker 2: as well.
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  Speaker 3: What this tells you is that they've been.
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  Speaker 2: Hunkering down, they have capacity, and they are now going
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  Speaker 2: to reach up and turn up the heat. Obviously, the
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  Speaker 2: concern truly is do they have the capacity to do that.
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  Speaker 2: Can the Huties close the Babeo Mendeb Well, they've done
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  Speaker 2: it in the past, but it's been opened again because
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  Speaker 2: of the efforts of the United States, not with a.
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  Speaker 3: Lot of help from other allied partners.
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  Speaker 2: But there's an incentive for the Saudis certainly to be
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  Speaker 2: involved because they the Saudis have created a pipeline infrastructure,
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  Speaker 2: as you know, from the Gulf over to the Red Sea.
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  Speaker 2: This is the oil that's being pumped out, So that
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  Speaker 2: attempt to create an alternative and some resiliency and redundancy
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  Speaker 2: is now going to be threatened pretty significantly. So the
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  Speaker 2: US has a presence, the Saudis have a capability. What
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  Speaker 2: is going to be done that's going to detract from
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  Speaker 2: epic fury? If in case, you know, if we are
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  Speaker 2: now on the front edge of a new engagement with Iran,
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  Speaker 2: will that alter that type of an attack profile.
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  Speaker 3: Those are the key issues that need to be addressed.
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  Speaker 2: So the Hoodies can say a lot of things priority,
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  Speaker 2: Let's see what really happens, and then I guarantee the
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  Speaker 2: Saudis will step up in the US will certainly get
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  Speaker 2: involved as well.
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  Speaker 4: Nick, the Iran back who see group in Yemen, as
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  Speaker 4: you know, has declared its own maritime.
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  Speaker 3: Blockade and Saudi shipping. This is this is a big deal.
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  Speaker 3: What's the fallout from this?
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  Speaker 5: Yeah, the Hooths are essentially a proxy of the Iranians.
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  Speaker 5: The Iranians have closed the Straight of Homuz, the Hooths
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  Speaker 5: are threatening to close the equivalent on the Red Sea
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  Speaker 5: known as Babel Mandab. About six or seven percent of
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  Speaker 5: the world's oil and energy supplies come out through Babel
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  Speaker 5: Mandab along the coast of Yemen. This is mostly Saudi
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  Speaker 5: oil that's pumped all the way across the Arabian Peninsula
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  Speaker 5: from the Strait of Humus where it's blocked and it
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  Speaker 5: comes out through the Red Sea. So this is a
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  Speaker 5: significant escalation. The hooth Is are militarily ready for this moment. However,
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  Speaker 5: they have not taken or so far not acted upon
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  Speaker 5: this decision to block the Saudis. If they do, then
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  Speaker 5: we can expect an escalation response from the sound Is.
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  Speaker 5: That was almost unquestionable.
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  Speaker 6: Bob al Mandeb straight. It accounts for around fifteen percent
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  Speaker 6: of traffic, maritime traffic. I mean, this is just such
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  Speaker 6: a huge risk. Countries are starting to like really draw
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  Speaker 6: down their reserves. How worried should we be about the
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  Speaker 6: Hoofies at this point.
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  Speaker 7: Well, they haven't enacted. They haven't or at least they
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  Speaker 7: haven't enforced this blockade. But if they do, it's significant
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  Speaker 7: because this was the exit that Saudi Arabia had used
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  Speaker 7: to avoid the Strait of hor Moves, which we know
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  Speaker 7: has been either locked down or kind of open or
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  Speaker 7: kind of closed for about five months. They were basically
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  Speaker 7: transporting via pipeline in convoy the oil to the Red
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  Speaker 7: Sea and trying to get it out that way, and
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  Speaker 7: they were doing that very successfully. Somewhere around the order
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  Speaker 7: of four million barrels a day had been exiting through
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  Speaker 7: this other choke point that now the UTIs want to
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  Speaker 7: close off, and so that is a significant threat, not
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  Speaker 7: the kind of threat that the Straight of Hormuz is,
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  Speaker 7: but when you compile these things, it gets to be
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  Speaker 7: pretty pretty significant.
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  Speaker 4: Now.
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  Speaker 7: Oil prices, it is worth mentioning, although they are up
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  Speaker 7: about twenty dollars from their low point from a few
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  Speaker 7: weeks ago when the Straight of hormuves was mostly open,
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  Speaker 7: we're still also abound twenty five or thirty dollars below
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  Speaker 7: the high point for the wars. So the market right
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  Speaker 7: now is kind of saying, okay, you know, we think
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  Speaker 7: that this could be a problem. Maybe there's some room
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  Speaker 7: to rise, but we're not quite at the level that
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  Speaker 7: we are, or we were just a few weeks ago.
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  Speaker 7: The reason for that is that, as you mentioned, there
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  Speaker 7: are these inventories. China has almost two billion barrels of
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  Speaker 7: oil in its inventory. It continues to draw down that
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  Speaker 7: and that's sapped demand for oil imports. So the big
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  Speaker 7: picture is this is a bigger problem today than we
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  Speaker 7: had yesterday, but still the market things that it can
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  Speaker 7: be managed, at least for the time being.
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  Speaker 6: I want to bring in Dina Esfandiari, Middle East geoeconomics
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  Speaker 6: lead for Bloomberg Economics. Dina, really good to have you
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  Speaker 6: with us. I want to start off with some of
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  Speaker 6: the your roads on x and you say this. The
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  Speaker 6: Hoofes have announced a blockade of Saudi, framing it as
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  Speaker 6: a domestic issue. The move is intended to give them
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  Speaker 6: wiggle room to escalate from targeting Saudi ships only to
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  Speaker 6: expanding to wider disruption in the Red Sea. And Dina,
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  Speaker 6: we also know that the Hoofees have already started broadcasting
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  Speaker 6: messages to vessels putting out warnings as well. I mean,
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  Speaker 6: this could be another huge risk on global oil supply.
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  Speaker 6: How are you analyzing some of the scenarios that could
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  Speaker 6: play out in the couple in the next couple of days.
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  Speaker 4: Absolutely, this is really significant, and it's really significant now
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  Speaker 4: because so much of the oil that was going through
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  Speaker 4: the Straits of Hormos has now been diverted towards the
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  Speaker 4: Red Sea. The Saudis in particular have done that, reaching
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  Speaker 4: maximum capacity in their East West pipeline, so that means
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  Speaker 4: that all of that oil that was going through Hormos
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  Speaker 4: is now going to the Red Sea. The Bouthis have
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  Speaker 4: been very careful to give themselves space, so they've now
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  Speaker 4: come out and said that they were told they will
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  Speaker 4: target all ships that go in and out that dock
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  Speaker 4: in and out of Saudi ports. But of course how
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  Speaker 4: much they implement that threat is what everybody's going to
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  Speaker 4: be watching, because they could target just Saudi ships to
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  Speaker 4: begin with, they could go much bigger. At the end
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  Speaker 4: of the day, what matters is that they've made this threat,
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  Speaker 4: and ultimately, because they've done this in the past before,
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  Speaker 4: that threat is credible and that's enough to scare a
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  Speaker 4: lot of people off.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah. Look, the wider issue here is what we're seeing
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  Speaker 6: from the US side, and the Pentagon is saying nearly
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  Speaker 6: one hundred US troops were injured in the last two weeks.
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  Speaker 6: We know that Hegseth is expected to face senators today
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  Speaker 6: and you know, answer questions around the fact that they
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  Speaker 6: need more money for the swarf. From a t cramp perspective,
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  Speaker 6: they're reading into their say. Looking very closely at the
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  Speaker 6: US strategy right now, and I guess who's going to
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  Speaker 6: buckle first.
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  Speaker 4: Well, that's the million dollar question. The problem is that
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  Speaker 4: both sides right now appear to be locked in an
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  Speaker 4: escalatory spiral. The Iranians want to make sure that their
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  Speaker 4: red lines are clear, and the main red line really
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  Speaker 4: is their control over the Strait of Hormos. The US,
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  Speaker 4: in turn, also wants to be sure that its red
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  Speaker 4: line is clear, and that red line is that around
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  Speaker 4: can't control the Strait of Foremos. So the two are
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  Speaker 4: are basically locked in this exchange. It's an incremental, mentally
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  Speaker 4: increasing exchange in the sense that now it's targeting more infrastructure,
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  Speaker 4: both in Iran and in the rest of the region.
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  Speaker 4: That's likely to increase over the course of the next
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  Speaker 4: few days. Every time it gets worse, it becomes harder
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  Speaker 4: to find an off front for both sites, and that's
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  Speaker 4: the critical issue.
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  Speaker 6: So look, the United States has reiterated for many months now, frankly,
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  Speaker 6: that they've been able to degrade a significant number of
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  Speaker 6: run's military capabilities as well as missile launches e RUN
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  Speaker 6: in the meantime, targeting Golf States specifically over the past
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  Speaker 6: ten days, and also releasing footage of their missile launches
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  Speaker 6: and drone launch sites. What capabilities do we know Iran
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  Speaker 6: still has at this point.
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  Speaker 4: Well, it's really hard to say exactly, but what is
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  Speaker 4: sure is that, yes, the US has degraded some of
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  Speaker 4: Iran's capabilities, but no, that hasn't been enough to prevent
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  Speaker 4: Iran from continuing its attacks. Not only has Iran been
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  Speaker 4: able to continue its attacks in the Strait largely because
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  Speaker 4: that doesn't require much. Frankly, it requires some drones, it
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  Speaker 4: requires some rubber boats with guns or explosive devices, so
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  Speaker 4: controlling the straight from Tehran's perspective is really easy. The
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  Speaker 4: thing that's been more interesting to watch is Iran's ability
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  Speaker 4: to target US bases and US personnel in the wider region,
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  Speaker 4: including in Jordan. The US had moved some of its
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  Speaker 4: troops into Jordan away from the Gulf aired States in
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  Speaker 4: order to move them away from Iran, and Iran has
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  Speaker 4: still been able to target them. That is something that's
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  Speaker 4: really quite worrying.