Latest / Toadstool Sports / Saturday BEST BETS | Saturday Suckage | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/27/26

Transcript

Saturday BEST BETS | Saturday Suckage | MLB & WNBA & World Cup | 6/27/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:17
  Speaker 1: You gotta slip in your palm.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Man, a hole in your chase, black coffee on the
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: felt Man, you look like a mist three teen Parlette
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: turned the dust in your head. Now you stare at
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: the chips like they made you this man. But don't
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: you go quiet? Don't you fade from the floor. Your
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: name steal mean something in somebody for show?
• 0:42
  Speaker 3: Put the glass.
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: Down, baby, look at me? No hold on, hold on
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: nothing night, No.
• 0:58
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on me, but it don't get the crown.
• 1:15
  Speaker 4: Hold on, hold on, stay with me.
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: Now, what's up? Birdboddy?
• 1:29
  Speaker 5: It's towed back with you with toadstil Sports Saturday, June
• 1:34
  Speaker 5: twenty seventh. Do not listen to anything that I have
• 1:36
  Speaker 5: to say on the show or ever whatever. Yesterday was
• 1:41
  Speaker 5: one of the worst days we've had on the show
• 1:43
  Speaker 5: in a long time.
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: Zero to three.
• 1:45
  Speaker 5: I mean, it happens, but I what do you want
• 1:49
  Speaker 5: me to say? Detroit had eight runs themselves in the
• 1:52
  Speaker 5: first four innings, and then that game couldn't go over
• 1:54
  Speaker 5: eight and a half.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Really, you have five innings.
• 1:57
  Speaker 5: Left or I guess four and a half because Detroit
• 1:59
  Speaker 5: was winning. For either team to score one run two
• 2:03
  Speaker 5: pretty questionable bullpends and you're not gonna get one more run, okay, great?
• 2:08
  Speaker 5: And then we had the under in the first five
• 2:11
  Speaker 5: in the A's Angels game. That was a one nothing
• 2:14
  Speaker 5: game into the fifth inning, and then Walbert Urania Uranus
• 2:19
  Speaker 5: completely implodes seven runs from the A's in that top
• 2:25
  Speaker 5: half of the inning. They probably should have just left
• 2:27
  Speaker 5: Urania in because they probably would have allowed fewer runs
• 2:30
  Speaker 5: if they did that. Like again, what do you want
• 2:33
  Speaker 5: me to say? And then Atlanta was the better team.
• 2:37
  Speaker 5: They won the first three quarters of that game. Last
• 2:40
  Speaker 5: night at Golden State. What they're known for is being
• 2:43
  Speaker 5: really good in the first half at home. They were
• 2:45
  Speaker 5: ten to one at home in the first half, like
• 2:48
  Speaker 5: against the first half line, and Atlanta won the first
• 2:52
  Speaker 5: half year. That was literally only the second time the
• 2:54
  Speaker 5: Golden State at home lost on the first half number.
• 2:59
  Speaker 5: And Atlanta I couldn't finish the game and they only
• 3:02
  Speaker 5: score in the seventies and they lose the game by
• 3:04
  Speaker 5: three points.
• 3:05
  Speaker 3: Fuck you.
• 3:06
  Speaker 5: I'm not responding to comments here. I'll talk about these games.
• 3:10
  Speaker 5: Don't listen to anything I have to say. I have
• 3:12
  Speaker 5: two plays. They're both in baseball. Whatever, Yankees Red Sox.
• 3:17
  Speaker 5: The only good thing that happened yesterday the Red Sox won.
• 3:21
  Speaker 5: I mean, I'm a fan of Payton Dolly, I'm liking
• 3:24
  Speaker 5: Wilson Contrerez. Is that his name, because he is definitely
• 3:28
  Speaker 5: a He's getting really into this rivalry here and pissing
• 3:32
  Speaker 5: the Yankees off. I don't know if the Red Sox
• 3:35
  Speaker 5: are gonna win this game. Bullpen usage was pretty similar yesterday.
• 3:41
  Speaker 5: Both teams use two relief pitchers. The Red Sox bullpen
• 3:44
  Speaker 5: is slightly better at number four, Yankees number seven. Both
• 3:48
  Speaker 5: have a really similar ERA here. Yankees way better offense
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: number two, Red Sox number twenty four. Garrett Cole is
• 3:56
  Speaker 5: pitching for the Yankees. This game is on ABC, by
• 3:59
  Speaker 5: the way, so it's got a TV billing because it
• 4:02
  Speaker 5: is the big, the big rivalry. Yankees might be a
• 4:05
  Speaker 5: little bit more motivated here because they've lost the first
• 4:08
  Speaker 5: two games of this year as well. The Red Sox
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: in recent years have played pretty well against the Yankees,
• 4:13
  Speaker 5: even when they're the lesser team. Cole is pretty good
• 4:17
  Speaker 5: three point six to two ERA one point one to
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: eight Whip, not as good on the road four point
• 4:23
  Speaker 5: two Roady Ray and he wasn't good in his last
• 4:26
  Speaker 5: start and two of his last three starts, he's failed
• 4:29
  Speaker 5: to make it past four and a third innings, so
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: maybe that's not a great sign. Those are against Cleveland
• 4:34
  Speaker 5: and Detroit, who are not exactly elite offenses. So there's
• 4:39
  Speaker 5: something maybe a little bit off about Cole. I mean,
• 4:41
  Speaker 5: I know he's coming back from injury, he's getting up
• 4:44
  Speaker 5: there in age, so he's not really exactly what he
• 4:47
  Speaker 5: was when he was totally elite, although he's still not bad.
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, low walk rate, strike
• 4:53
  Speaker 5: out rate is decent against the Red Sox, has good
• 4:57
  Speaker 5: numbers and forty five at bats to twenty two average
• 4:59
  Speaker 5: five nine ohps eighteen to two strike out walk ratio.
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: I think that he is probably going to pitch well here.
• 5:07
  Speaker 5: Red Sox going with Jake Bennett, who has pitched pretty
• 5:10
  Speaker 5: well so far in his rookie season three point seven
• 5:13
  Speaker 5: one ERA, one point one to three whip. Not as
• 5:16
  Speaker 5: good at home though, four point h two homey RA.
• 5:20
  Speaker 5: He was really good last time out with a six inning,
• 5:23
  Speaker 5: nine strikeout, four hit and no walk performance shutout performance
• 5:28
  Speaker 5: in Colorado, so he was able to handle course field
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: really well and he hasn't walked to anybody over his
• 5:34
  Speaker 5: last two starts and has an eighteen to one strike
• 5:37
  Speaker 5: out walk ratio this month. Yeah, he's pitching well, his
• 5:40
  Speaker 5: command has gotten better. The Red Sox haven't been able
• 5:43
  Speaker 5: to win any of those games. But really, yeah, I
• 5:46
  Speaker 5: mean he looks alright here. He's got an okay strikeout
• 5:50
  Speaker 5: rad his hit rate is fine and his walk rate
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: is very low.
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: So his command has been solid.
• 5:56
  Speaker 5: And the Yankees have not seen him before, so he
• 5:58
  Speaker 5: does have that unfamiliarity advantage where the hitters are gonna
• 6:02
  Speaker 5: have to figure him out.
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: On the fly.
• 6:04
  Speaker 5: I think this game probably looks like an under. That's
• 6:07
  Speaker 5: probably what I would do here, uh, rather than try
• 6:10
  Speaker 5: to figure.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Out the side. The money is backing the Red Sox.
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: Seventy one percent of the tickets are on the Yankees.
• 6:17
  Speaker 5: I mean, it makes sense the Yankees. They're not heavily
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: priced here. They're at minus one twenty five. It looks
• 6:23
  Speaker 5: probably too easy to take the Yankees at that price
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: with Coal on the mound because he's the name that
• 6:29
  Speaker 5: everybody knows.
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: There.
• 6:31
  Speaker 5: Red Sox fifty three percent of the money, though money
• 6:34
  Speaker 5: is also hitting the over.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: I don't really agree with that.
• 6:37
  Speaker 5: Fifty six percent of tickets on the under fifty four
• 6:40
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over total eight and
• 6:42
  Speaker 5: a half. I think you have two starters who look
• 6:45
  Speaker 5: like they could pitch well here. Red Sox offense also
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: is still not good at home, even though they've been
• 6:50
  Speaker 5: a little bit better. I think they've scored six runs
• 6:52
  Speaker 5: in each game in this series, so they have gotten
• 6:54
  Speaker 5: a little bit better. Probably not gonna I don't think
• 6:57
  Speaker 5: they're gonna do that again here though. Yeah, I think
• 6:59
  Speaker 5: the under makes the most sense in that game. Bullpens
• 7:02
  Speaker 5: are also solid. Houston at Detroit. Don't even want to
• 7:06
  Speaker 5: talk about what happened in that game yesterday. Houston couldn't
• 7:09
  Speaker 5: even put up one run against Detroit's pitching.
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: Thank you, Houston, thanks for that. Detroit only is.
• 7:16
  Speaker 5: One relief pitcher, Houston used two. These bullpens have gotten
• 7:20
  Speaker 5: better recently, though. Houston is actually up to nineteenth, so
• 7:24
  Speaker 5: they are definitely not an atrocious bullpen at this point.
• 7:27
  Speaker 5: Detroit sixteenth of their eras below four.
• 7:30
  Speaker 3: That's not bad. Still don't trust these bullpens, but they're.
• 7:35
  Speaker 5: Not totally avoidable here or bullpens that you have to avoid,
• 7:39
  Speaker 5: I should say, And in fact, the bullpens were excellent
• 7:42
  Speaker 5: in the game yesterday, which pisses me off. Houston fourteenth
• 7:48
  Speaker 5: in offense here and Detroit twenty first. Detroit still not
• 7:53
  Speaker 5: hitting well. Kaiwai Tang pitching this game for Houston. He's
• 7:58
  Speaker 5: I don't know, man, I mean, he's really hard to predict.
• 8:00
  Speaker 5: Four point zero three ERA, one point twenty nine whip
• 8:03
  Speaker 5: that's not that great. Three point nine to six road ERA,
• 8:06
  Speaker 5: so he's a little bit better on the road. He
• 8:08
  Speaker 5: was good in his last start, but it was against Cleveland,
• 8:11
  Speaker 5: who we know is not a good offense, and they're
• 8:13
  Speaker 5: injured right now. His previous three starts were all pretty bad.
• 8:17
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't know, man. I wouldn't say he's
• 8:20
  Speaker 5: exactly in good form because he made one good start
• 8:22
  Speaker 5: against a weak offense.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: He was coming out of the bullpen earlier in the year.
• 8:26
  Speaker 5: He's got a low hit rate, though walk rate is
• 8:29
  Speaker 5: definitely too high. Strike gout rate is fairly high, so
• 8:32
  Speaker 5: the wildness is his main concern here. Detroit has fifteen
• 8:36
  Speaker 5: at bats, not a huge sample, but most of their
• 8:38
  Speaker 5: hitters have faced him and they've done well. Four hundred average,
• 8:42
  Speaker 5: fourteen seventy one ops, eight to two strike out walk
• 8:45
  Speaker 5: race year. The only good numbers for him there. Detroit
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: also has three home runs against him in that small
• 8:51
  Speaker 5: sample size from Bervaldez is pitching for Detroit three point
• 8:55
  Speaker 5: nine to one ERA one point three to three whip.
• 8:58
  Speaker 5: That whip is clearly too high, Valdez. I mean, he's okay,
• 9:03
  Speaker 5: but he just walks too many guys. He's not that
• 9:05
  Speaker 5: good at home though, four point three to eight home
• 9:07
  Speaker 5: the IRA. But he's been better recently. This month, he's
• 9:10
  Speaker 5: been pretty pretty solid. Of those walk numbers still been
• 9:13
  Speaker 5: too high, but he's allowed one or zero earned run
• 9:17
  Speaker 5: in three of the four starts, including a good start
• 9:21
  Speaker 5: last time out against the Yankees. Or he had eight
• 9:23
  Speaker 5: strikeouts and allowed one run and got to win against them.
• 9:26
  Speaker 5: So that's a decent sign that he is pitching better again.
• 9:29
  Speaker 5: Right now, his hit rate is fairly low, his walk
• 9:32
  Speaker 5: rate is too high. Like I said, strikeout rate is
• 9:36
  Speaker 5: not as high as you would really want to see.
• 9:38
  Speaker 5: But he does also induce a lot of ground balls,
• 9:41
  Speaker 5: which are less lethal than fly balls.
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: As long as you.
• 9:44
  Speaker 5: Got good infield, infield or fielding, his numbers it gets
• 9:48
  Speaker 5: Houston are good. And remember he used to be on Houston.
• 9:51
  Speaker 5: I talked about that the last night. He just faced
• 9:54
  Speaker 5: Houston two starts ago. I gave out a first five
• 9:57
  Speaker 5: under in that game, and that was a winner. He
• 10:00
  Speaker 5: we give up nowhere and runs and six innings in
• 10:01
  Speaker 5: that one. I told you that I thought Valdez was
• 10:03
  Speaker 5: gonna pitch well against his former team the first time facing.
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: Them, because he was gonna get up for that.
• 10:10
  Speaker 5: Usually pitchers they're gonna get a little bit more excited
• 10:12
  Speaker 5: and get up for it against the team that just
• 10:14
  Speaker 5: got rid of them because they want to pitch well.
• 10:17
  Speaker 5: Will that carry over to this game, I'm not so sure.
• 10:20
  Speaker 5: Maybe he'll still do it, but Houston might have made
• 10:23
  Speaker 5: some adjustments to him, so I don't really trust him
• 10:25
  Speaker 5: as much in this game.
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: Although he does have good numbers against Houston.
• 10:29
  Speaker 5: Forty one at bats too, twenty average, allowed six to
• 10:31
  Speaker 5: twenty six ops, nine to seven strike out walk ratio.
• 10:36
  Speaker 5: I'm still gonna lean Detroit here. I still think Valdez
• 10:39
  Speaker 5: is the more stable pitcher. Well, he's not mentally stable,
• 10:43
  Speaker 5: so that is a question. But I think he's the
• 10:45
  Speaker 5: more predictable pitcher here. In a way, both are kind
• 10:49
  Speaker 5: of unpredictable, though. Sixty five percent of tickets on Detroit,
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: though fifty nine percent of the cash on Houston. Money
• 10:55
  Speaker 5: is back in Houston. I think I would lean Detroit here.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: They're around minus one thirty something. You can make it
• 11:01
  Speaker 5: a first five if you worry about the bullpens, although
• 11:04
  Speaker 5: Detroit may have a slight bullpen edge there, so full
• 11:07
  Speaker 5: games still kind of makes sense there. Detroit over their
• 11:11
  Speaker 5: team total makes some sense too, if you kind of
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: lean Detroit here.
• 11:14
  Speaker 3: And want to avoid Valdez.
• 11:17
  Speaker 5: The money is back in the over In the game,
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: the totals at eight and a half, so Detroit over
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: team total does make some sense in that game as well.
• 11:24
  Speaker 5: You might need him to get like I don't know,
• 11:27
  Speaker 5: you might need him to only score. You probably need
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: him to get five runs though, in that game if
• 11:31
  Speaker 5: you want to do it that way.
• 11:33
  Speaker 3: Texas at Toronto.
• 11:36
  Speaker 5: Texas has won both games in the series so far
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: by one run, so Toronto not doing well here at
• 11:42
  Speaker 5: home Toronto is I don't think they're really as good
• 11:45
  Speaker 5: as Texas really, Texas just has very good pitching. Toronto
• 11:50
  Speaker 5: used three relief pitchers yesterday. Texas also did. Texas has
• 11:53
  Speaker 5: used their best relievers in both games in the series, though,
• 11:56
  Speaker 5: to save both games, so their better relievers are probably
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: unavailable in this game, so that's not great for them.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: Texas number nine in bullpen.
• 12:05
  Speaker 5: Their eray is a little bit higher than I would
• 12:07
  Speaker 5: think that it would be, but I think they're the
• 12:09
  Speaker 5: better bullpen.
• 12:10
  Speaker 3: Toronto thirteenth.
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: They have the same era, but Toronto has the worst
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: whip and I think Texas is definitely the better bullpen.
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: Texas has ranked nineteenth than offense, tied with Kansas City.
• 12:22
  Speaker 3: Olano think Kansas City is that good. Blue Jay's twenty third.
• 12:28
  Speaker 5: So Texas has somehow been slightly better on offense. I'm
• 12:32
  Speaker 5: not so sure I really buy that, but they are
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: a little bit better on the road. This pitching matchup
• 12:36
  Speaker 5: really does not favor Texas at all.
• 12:38
  Speaker 3: Though Texas is going.
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: With a bullpen game here, they got cal Kwantra listed
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: as a starter. I don't think this is gonna be good.
• 12:45
  Speaker 5: I don't think we really need to dig into his
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: numbers too much. He's probably only only gonna go like
• 12:50
  Speaker 5: one or two winnings here, and he's allowed runs in
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: four straight appearances. This isn't really good. Texas has lost
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: his last six appearances. Sign His numbers against Traad are
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: also bad, but he's only going to be in the
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: game for a little while.
• 13:06
  Speaker 3: But it does not look good.
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: He will be opposed by Dan Cease, who is obviously
• 13:11
  Speaker 5: the way better of the two starters here. He's the
• 13:14
  Speaker 5: only starter that's making him that's a pitching in this game.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 13:18
  Speaker 5: Cease is having a good season two point seven five ERA,
• 13:21
  Speaker 5: one point one to nine whip, really good at home
• 13:24
  Speaker 5: two point three to three homey RA. He's continuing to
• 13:28
  Speaker 5: pitch well, although his walk numbers are getting pretty bad again.
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: He's he's walked eight guys over his last ten and
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: two thirds innings. You can't do that and keep getting
• 13:37
  Speaker 5: away with it, man. I know he Cease, I know
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: he strikes out everybody and doesn't allow that many hits,
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: but his wildness seems to be coming back, and that
• 13:44
  Speaker 5: is one concern with him. That's his main problem throughout
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: his career. His walk number is way too high, but
• 13:51
  Speaker 5: his hit rate is pretty low, at really low.
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: His strikeout rate is also really high, so that's kind
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: of how he gets away with it.
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: But the walks really kind of did him in last year.
• 14:02
  Speaker 5: And I don't know, man, I mean, his control looks
• 14:04
  Speaker 5: like it's off right now, even though his strikeout rate
• 14:09
  Speaker 5: has been high this entire time.
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: I don't like the walks here, and I do not like.
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: His numbers against Texas, particularly in seventy seven at bats.
• 14:17
  Speaker 3: Texas the offense isn't that good, but they do have
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: a two.
• 14:20
  Speaker 5: To seventy three average, seven to eighty ops off him,
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: twenty five to six strikeout walk ratio, So Texas has
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: had a little bit of an advantage against Cease. You know,
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think maybe you could go over in
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: this game. I mean I think both games have gone
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: over in the series so far. Money is back in
• 14:37
  Speaker 5: the the under seventy eight percent of tickets on the
• 14:40
  Speaker 5: over fifty six percent of the cash on the under.
• 14:43
  Speaker 5: I would not do that. I mean, I think we
• 14:45
  Speaker 5: might get an over here. The pitching scenario doesn't really
• 14:48
  Speaker 5: look that great for either side. You're also paying a
• 14:52
  Speaker 5: lot of money if you want ce so you have
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: to lay minus one ninety something here eighty one percent
• 14:57
  Speaker 5: of tickets seventy six percent of the cash on Toronto.
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: Money is fading Toronto here. I would not back a
• 15:03
  Speaker 5: Texas bullpen game though, even though their bullpen is good.
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: I'm not gonna do that.
• 15:09
  Speaker 5: Yeah, Uh, Toronto probably I would say gets this win,
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: but I don't think I would want to bank on
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: it really either, even though Texas they're gonna be out
• 15:18
  Speaker 5: of their best relievers here in this game too. I
• 15:20
  Speaker 5: guess you could look to lay a run line with Toronto,
• 15:23
  Speaker 5: but the money is fading it basically saying the price
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: is not good on Toronto. So yeah, I think the
• 15:30
  Speaker 5: money is basically just saying you're paying too much for
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: Dylan Cees here, I'm skipping the game.
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: Next game is gonna be a play.
• 15:37
  Speaker 5: We get a more reasonable price on this, and this
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: game is like I have to decide which one of
• 15:44
  Speaker 5: these guys is my favorite child. But we're gonna back
• 15:48
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati in the first five minus one twenty five on
• 15:52
  Speaker 5: the money line here, you can find a decent money
• 15:56
  Speaker 5: line on this. Obviously, I'm gonna exclude Cincinnati's bullpen because
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: they suck, so I don't want any part of that.
• 16:03
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati used four elite pitchers yesterday. This is at Pittsburgh.
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh used four as well. I believe Pittsburgh finally got
• 16:10
  Speaker 5: a win yesterday. I'm pretty sure didn't they did they Wait,
• 16:13
  Speaker 5: maybe they didn't, No, they didn't. Only shit Pittsburgh. They've
• 16:17
  Speaker 5: lost eight games in a row with Paul Skien starting.
• 16:20
  Speaker 5: I don't know what is going on with that man.
• 16:22
  Speaker 5: I mean, it is just getting ridiculous that they can't
• 16:24
  Speaker 5: win a game with skiings, even if he pitches well.
• 16:27
  Speaker 5: It looks like he was a little bit off yesterday.
• 16:30
  Speaker 5: But or maybe it was Cincinnati's bullpen.
• 16:32
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 16:32
  Speaker 5: I haven't looked at any of the box score stats there.
• 16:35
  Speaker 5: I don't care because I'm gonna go with Chase Burns
• 16:38
  Speaker 5: in this game here.
• 16:39
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna avoid the bullpens. Both bullpens are bad.
• 16:42
  Speaker 5: Cincinnati's is worst, Cincinnati twenty eighth.
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: They're not good.
• 16:46
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh is twentieth, but they are better than Cincinnati. So
• 16:50
  Speaker 5: we're gonna throw Cincinnati's bullpen in the trash, not deal
• 16:54
  Speaker 5: with them. I don't like Cincinnati's offense recently at all.
• 16:58
  Speaker 5: They're twenty fifth right now. I know that's not good.
• 17:01
  Speaker 5: But I think they're gonna be able to get some
• 17:02
  Speaker 5: runs here, at least enough to get us this win
• 17:06
  Speaker 5: on this play here, because they should be able to.
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: They're probably not gonna have to put up too much offense.
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: But with Chase Burns on the other side here. Although
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: I know Pittsburgh is really good at home. They're number
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: three in offense, they're really good at home. Burns should
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: be able to counter that. Burns has been awesome too,
• 17:22
  Speaker 5: ERA one point zero five whip. He's been basically the
• 17:26
  Speaker 5: same home and away. It doesn't matter.
• 17:28
  Speaker 3: He did pitch against Pittsburgh and.
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: Shut them out for seven innings in this stadium in
• 17:33
  Speaker 5: early May, so he obviously has the ability to completely
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: shut them down in this stadium. And I don't think
• 17:39
  Speaker 5: we need him to be quite that good here to
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: get this to be a win. But he was excellent
• 17:43
  Speaker 5: in that start, seven shutout innings, three hits, one walk,
• 17:46
  Speaker 5: seven strikeouts. He also shut out phil Pittsburgh at home
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: for five innings, one hit aloud in that one, seven strikeouts,
• 17:56
  Speaker 5: three walks. So he has gone twelve scoreless innings against
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: Pittsburgh this year, allowing only four hits, fourteen strikeouts and
• 18:04
  Speaker 5: four walks. So he has dominated them this year, and
• 18:07
  Speaker 5: his numbers reflect that. He's got thirty seven at bats
• 18:10
  Speaker 5: against Pittsburgh, seventeen strikeouts, four walks, two hits allowed. Two
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: one is an extra base hit a double from Reynolds.
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: But oh fifty four average two to twenty seven oh ps.
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: He has dominant stats against Pittsburgh, so I'm gonna back
• 18:25
  Speaker 5: that and I'm gonna fade Jared Jones, even though I
• 18:28
  Speaker 5: do like Jones. Jones has not been able to come
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: back from injury very well so far. He's young, he
• 18:35
  Speaker 5: was pretty good two years ago, so I think at
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: some point he will be back in some sort of form,
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: but he is not right now. A five point seven
• 18:43
  Speaker 5: to five VRA, one point five to two whip, really ugly,
• 18:46
  Speaker 5: really bad at home seven point five to six HOMEYRA,
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: So we're gonna fade his home.
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: Road splits here.
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: He hasn't even gone five innings in his last three starts.
• 18:57
  Speaker 5: In fact, he's made four starts this year and he's
• 18:59
  Speaker 5: only gone five once in those five, so that's not
• 19:04
  Speaker 5: a good sign either. He's gotten a lot of run
• 19:06
  Speaker 5: support behind him, but I don't think that's gonna be
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: the case against Chase Burns. Jones has had to pitch
• 19:12
  Speaker 5: at the A's stadium though, against the Dodgers at Colorado,
• 19:15
  Speaker 5: so you do have to give him a little bit
• 19:17
  Speaker 5: of a break for that because those are not easy tasks.
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: So I do think he is a little bit better
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: than what these numbers would suggest. But he's got a
• 19:24
  Speaker 5: high hit rate. His walk rate is not great, strikeout
• 19:27
  Speaker 5: rate is fairly good, but still, I mean, he's just
• 19:31
  Speaker 5: not It looks like they have him on a pitch
• 19:33
  Speaker 5: count right now, so he might not even go the
• 19:36
  Speaker 5: full first five here, So I think Burns should outlast
• 19:39
  Speaker 5: him here and his numbers against the Reds, although it's
• 19:41
  Speaker 5: only four hitters who have faced him. Elie de la
• 19:44
  Speaker 5: Cruz is back for the Reds, which should help their
• 19:46
  Speaker 5: offense here because he's done some damage against Jones two
• 19:50
  Speaker 5: for three with a double on.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: A home run. The team has ten at bats against him.
• 19:54
  Speaker 5: They do have a four hundred average and twelve hundred
• 19:56
  Speaker 5: oh ps against him, three strikeouts, no walks, but I
• 19:59
  Speaker 5: think they should be able to score some against Jones
• 20:03
  Speaker 5: here while he's out there.
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: We get a decent price on this. Well, back Burns here.
• 20:07
  Speaker 5: The money seems to agree with this, sixty six percent
• 20:09
  Speaker 5: of tickets, ninety percent of the cash on Cincinnati.
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: They're a cheaper price on the full.
• 20:14
  Speaker 5: Game because that would include Cincinnati's bullpen, and I do
• 20:17
  Speaker 5: not want to do that. At about minus one eighteen
• 20:19
  Speaker 5: I'll up pay the extra juice to just focus on
• 20:23
  Speaker 5: where we have the edge, burns being on the mound
• 20:25
  Speaker 5: first five Cincinnati money line.
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: I have no voice. I apologize, ugh Man.
• 20:32
  Speaker 5: I don't know why, dude, I was able to do
• 20:34
  Speaker 5: a ukulele cover last night, but I'm not gonna be
• 20:36
  Speaker 5: able to do anything. I don't even know if I'm
• 20:37
  Speaker 5: gonna get through the show. Philadelphia at the Mets. This
• 20:40
  Speaker 5: is a very very weird starting pitching matchup in this one.
• 20:44
  Speaker 5: The Mets lost again yesterday, even though I thought they'd
• 20:46
  Speaker 5: have a spark after they fired their manager. They almost won.
• 20:50
  Speaker 5: It was a two to one loss, so they were
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: able to get some good pitching yesterday. But Zach Wheeler,
• 20:56
  Speaker 5: I think, pitched for Philadelphia, and he's not a guy
• 20:59
  Speaker 5: you want to mess with. Man Wheeler can pretty much
• 21:01
  Speaker 5: shut down anybody on any given day. Philadelphia only these
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: two relief pitchers yesterday. The Mets used two as well.
• 21:09
  Speaker 5: Mets have a pretty good bullpen. They're number three. They
• 21:12
  Speaker 5: have a really good bullpen. Actually Philadelphia is number ten,
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: not too bad, but the Mets are the better bullpen here.
• 21:18
  Speaker 5: Philly is the better offense, although neither offense has been good.
• 21:21
  Speaker 5: Philly twenty second Mets twenty ninth, Philly is going with
• 21:26
  Speaker 5: Alan ron Hell. Is that how you pronounced this guy's name, Rangel?
• 21:31
  Speaker 3: I think it's Ron Hell.
• 21:32
  Speaker 5: He's from Mexico, so yeah, Alan run Hell, that's what
• 21:36
  Speaker 5: I'm gonna call this guy.
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 21:38
  Speaker 5: I have no idea what you're gonna get out of
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: this guy. He's twenty eight, so it's not like he's
• 21:43
  Speaker 5: a really young guy. He's only made one start so far.
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: I think he made one relief appearance in one start.
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: I believe no, he's made no starts. Actually my mistake.
• 21:51
  Speaker 5: He's made seven relief appearances with Philly since last year.
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: His whip is a little bit high here over that
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: entire span of those has been pretty good so far.
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: A two point twenty five this year. One whip, that's good.
• 22:05
  Speaker 5: He did make two road starts that we're not that easy.
• 22:08
  Speaker 5: Against the Cubs in Washington. He's got eight innings so far,
• 22:12
  Speaker 5: eight hits, allowed, nine k's, and no walks, so that
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: is pretty good. His command's been good. He did that
• 22:17
  Speaker 5: against two offenses that could definitely do damage. So Ron
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: Hell actually looks like he's not that bad. I have
• 22:25
  Speaker 5: no idea you're gonna get out of him here against
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: the Mets. But the Mets are gonna be easily the
• 22:29
  Speaker 5: weakest offense that he's faced so far, so he might
• 22:32
  Speaker 5: actually pitch well here. The Mets, on the other side,
• 22:35
  Speaker 5: will have Christian Scott coming back from the injured list.
• 22:39
  Speaker 5: Scott is a pretty decent young pitcher. He's got a
• 22:41
  Speaker 5: three point one erail those whip is too high one
• 22:44
  Speaker 5: point three five. He's not been good at home four
• 22:47
  Speaker 5: point six homey ra, so there are some issues with
• 22:50
  Speaker 5: him here. He didn't do well last time out against
• 22:52
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis, which is maybe a little bit of a
• 22:55
  Speaker 5: red flag. That was a home start for him. Saint
• 22:57
  Speaker 5: Louis was able to hit him around. Maybe he got
• 23:00
  Speaker 5: a little bit unlucky with the home runs there. If
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: you look at his overall numbers, he does have a
• 23:04
  Speaker 5: really high strikeout rate and a low hit rate, but
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is too high. So his problem is
• 23:09
  Speaker 5: the walks. He's walking like one guy every two winnings.
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: You can't do that, man. But other than that, his
• 23:15
  Speaker 5: numbers do look good and he's got the ability to
• 23:17
  Speaker 5: fool major league hitters with that strikeout rate. So there
• 23:20
  Speaker 5: are some things to like about Scott here, and his
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: walk rate has actually gotten better recently, so that's at
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: least a good thing.
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: I did back him in that start against.
• 23:29
  Speaker 5: San Diego, I'm pretty sure, but that was a bad
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: spot for San Diego, and you know, it was San Diego,
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: so it was one of the best pitching matchup Scott
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: was gonna get. This one might not be as good.
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: Although Philadelphia they've had their offensive issues and they're not
• 23:43
  Speaker 5: very good on the road. Scott has never seen them before,
• 23:46
  Speaker 5: they've never seen him before, so Scott has the unfamiliarity
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: edge here against them, so that should help him a
• 23:51
  Speaker 5: little bit here. You know, it sounds a little insane,
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: but this game kind of looks like an under to me.
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: I think that might be the way to look at this.
• 24:00
  Speaker 5: I think both pitchers might actually do our right. Although
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: we have seventy four percent of tickets ninety one percent
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the over total is high at nine,
• 24:08
  Speaker 5: and you're not gonna see it's older in very many
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: Mets games being at nine. So the odds makers are
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: kind of telling you that they think this is gonna
• 24:15
  Speaker 5: be higher scoring. But I kind of don't think so like,
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: I think both starters might do our right here. I
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: do tend to like pitchers coming back from the injured
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: list too, because I think they usually get undervalued but
• 24:26
  Speaker 5: they're actually like ready to go and whatever. Maybe not
• 24:30
  Speaker 5: with Scott because he's young, Like I like it more
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: with like veteran pitchers, but I don't know. I mean,
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: I think the pitching could be alright all around in
• 24:38
  Speaker 5: this game. Money is also backing Philly, which kind of
• 24:41
  Speaker 5: tells you that the lesser known pitcher here and Ron
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: Hell is actually getting the money here. Uh so the
• 24:47
  Speaker 5: professional money seems to think he will pitch well en
• 24:50
  Speaker 5: Off here, which kind of is more of an to me,
• 24:52
  Speaker 5: that's like an indicator towards the under as I talk
• 24:55
  Speaker 5: about minus one thirty or so is the price on
• 24:58
  Speaker 5: the Mets. It is crazy that the Mets are favored here.
• 25:02
  Speaker 5: The public is going to be fading the Mets here,
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: but the money does look like it's also fading the
• 25:06
  Speaker 5: Mets here, So you know, it looks way too easy
• 25:10
  Speaker 5: to play Philadelphia though as an underdog here, being the
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: team with the way better record, though the Odsbeger's kind
• 25:16
  Speaker 5: of had to do this because Scott is just the
• 25:18
  Speaker 5: more proven picture at this point. But yeah, I don't know, man,
• 25:23
  Speaker 5: the price does kind of still seem a little bit
• 25:25
  Speaker 5: too high on the Mets here, though, I don't I
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: don't have a good read on the side.
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: Though. My first instinct on this.
• 25:31
  Speaker 5: Was to lean Mets, but then when I dug into
• 25:32
  Speaker 5: the numbers, I don't know, it seems more under ish
• 25:37
  Speaker 5: to me. Kansas City and Chicago the White Sox. The
• 25:41
  Speaker 5: White Sox won the game yesterday twenty two to one
• 25:44
  Speaker 5: against what I think it was a bullpen game for
• 25:46
  Speaker 5: Kansas City yesterday. This was unbelievable, but it's misleading. The
• 25:51
  Speaker 5: White Sox put up twenty three hits and scored twenty
• 25:53
  Speaker 5: two runs. Usually, you know, I mean, twenty three hits is.
• 25:57
  Speaker 3: Still a ton. I'm not gonna lie.
• 25:58
  Speaker 5: Oh, obviously that's true, but probably they should have probably
• 26:02
  Speaker 5: put up about thirteen or fourteen runs here. Twenty two
• 26:06
  Speaker 5: is ridiculous. Obviously a tied their franchise history record. That's
• 26:11
  Speaker 5: tied for the most runs the White Sox have ever
• 26:13
  Speaker 5: scored in a game.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: I believe Kansas City.
• 26:16
  Speaker 5: Went with a bullpen game and they just got absolutely
• 26:19
  Speaker 5: destroyed in this game. And Sandlin actually put up a
• 26:22
  Speaker 5: really good performance there. But remember, Kansas City is a
• 26:25
  Speaker 5: really weak road offense. They're not good on the road.
• 26:29
  Speaker 5: But that was an embarrassing result. Man, the White Sox
• 26:32
  Speaker 5: might take Kansas City totally unseriously after beating them twenty
• 26:36
  Speaker 5: two to one. When you see an outlier like that,
• 26:38
  Speaker 5: I think you do want to kind of look to
• 26:40
  Speaker 5: fade that in the next game, you know what I mean.
• 26:43
  Speaker 5: So I was looking like, is there a way to
• 26:44
  Speaker 5: play Kansas City here after that? But again, you know,
• 26:49
  Speaker 5: do you really want to back Kansas City's offense on
• 26:51
  Speaker 5: the road. I mean, there are some spots where maybe
• 26:54
  Speaker 5: you have to. This one, I'm not gonna lie. This
• 26:58
  Speaker 5: one almost made my card, but you know I couldn't
• 27:00
  Speaker 5: do it. But the White Sox only used three relief
• 27:03
  Speaker 5: pitchers yesterday. Kansas City used literally everybody or not quite
• 27:08
  Speaker 5: but almost They use whatever this is seven relief pitchers.
• 27:11
  Speaker 5: I think they actually use more than that. They might
• 27:13
  Speaker 5: have used like position players at that point. Obviously, whatever
• 27:18
  Speaker 5: you do in this game, you should not back Kansas
• 27:20
  Speaker 5: City's bullpen.
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I think that goes without saying.
• 27:24
  Speaker 5: Either fade Kansas City's bullpen or avoid them in this game.
• 27:28
  Speaker 5: Their bullpen was so bad yesterday. The congratulations to the
• 27:31
  Speaker 5: Minnesota Twins. You are not the worst bullpen anymore. Kansas
• 27:35
  Speaker 5: City is worst in Era and Whip again now horrible.
• 27:40
  Speaker 5: White Sox are kind of a mediocre bullpen at twenty first,
• 27:43
  Speaker 5: so their bullpening Ray isn't really that bad.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: Though White Sox offense.
• 27:47
  Speaker 5: Moved all the way back up to fifth with that
• 27:49
  Speaker 5: explosion yesterday. The Royals are nineteenth, but I don't really
• 27:53
  Speaker 5: think they're that good, and they're not good on the road. However,
• 27:56
  Speaker 5: they're not gonna give up twenty two runs again because
• 27:59
  Speaker 5: Michael Waka is pitching, so there's no way the Royals
• 28:01
  Speaker 5: are gonna put up that type of offense again. Walka
• 28:04
  Speaker 5: is pretty good three point four to eighty Array, one
• 28:06
  Speaker 5: point one to six WHIP. He's not as good on
• 28:09
  Speaker 5: the road though, four point oh two Roadie I Ray
• 28:12
  Speaker 5: still not bad, uh Walka. I mean he's been pretty consistent.
• 28:15
  Speaker 5: He's allowed more than four and runs only twice this season.
• 28:19
  Speaker 5: Low strikeout rate, he doesn't strike guys out, but he's
• 28:21
  Speaker 5: got a low hit rate, low walk rate.
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: He's thrown a lot of innings.
• 28:25
  Speaker 5: Like I mean, he's a steady pitcher, he doesn't put
• 28:27
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys on base. He's got good numbers
• 28:29
  Speaker 5: against the White Sox and forty eight at bats, eleven strikeouts,
• 28:33
  Speaker 5: one walk, so his strikeout rate is actually high against them.
• 28:36
  Speaker 5: One forty six average, four point thirty four oh ps.
• 28:39
  Speaker 5: Those are really good numbers, so walka definitely, he has
• 28:42
  Speaker 5: the capability of pitching well here, Like he could definitely
• 28:45
  Speaker 5: come in and silence the White Sox a bit here,
• 28:48
  Speaker 5: and he actually did do that at home earlier this
• 28:51
  Speaker 5: year in April. He hadn't eight in and shut out
• 28:53
  Speaker 5: against the White Sox, so he does have the ability
• 28:56
  Speaker 5: to shut these hitters down. Davis Martin, though, is pitching
• 28:59
  Speaker 5: for the White Socks. Martin has been pretty good, although
• 29:03
  Speaker 5: he's gotten a little bit worse recently, but he's got
• 29:06
  Speaker 5: a three point one to eighty RA one point two whip.
• 29:09
  Speaker 5: He's been awesome at home one point oh one homey RA,
• 29:13
  Speaker 5: so that's not exactly something I really want to fade here.
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: His walk rate has gone up though.
• 29:18
  Speaker 5: He's walked three guys apiece in three of his last
• 29:21
  Speaker 5: four starts all this month, and he's failed to go
• 29:24
  Speaker 5: five innings and two of his starts this month, both
• 29:27
  Speaker 5: of them on the road though.
• 29:28
  Speaker 3: Against Minnesota and then against the Yankees.
• 29:30
  Speaker 5: I mean, you probably give him a pass for that
• 29:32
  Speaker 5: Yankees start the Minnesota one. Maybe you have to too,
• 29:35
  Speaker 5: because Minnesota, believe it or not, they actually score a
• 29:37
  Speaker 5: lot of runs, I'm pretty sure, especially I think in
• 29:41
  Speaker 5: their home games. I think Minnesota has the highest scoring
• 29:44
  Speaker 5: home games in Major League Baseball. But that's also because
• 29:47
  Speaker 5: their bullpen is got awful and gives up a ton
• 29:50
  Speaker 5: of runs. But Minnesota does their offensive part at home.
• 29:55
  Speaker 5: The good sign is that Martin did bounce back, allowing
• 29:57
  Speaker 5: only one run last time out against Detroit, and he
• 30:00
  Speaker 5: does draw out Kansas City here, and Kansas City doesn't
• 30:03
  Speaker 5: hit well on the road. Martin did pitch well at
• 30:05
  Speaker 5: Kansas City the one time he faced them this year.
• 30:08
  Speaker 5: Didn't have a lot of strikeouts there, but he went
• 30:10
  Speaker 5: seven innings and held him to tour and runs, and
• 30:12
  Speaker 5: he was very efficient with his pitches in that one. However,
• 30:16
  Speaker 5: Martin actually does not have good numbers against Kansas City
• 30:19
  Speaker 5: in fifty five at bats, so we have a good
• 30:21
  Speaker 5: sample size here three twenty seven average, eight forty two ops,
• 30:25
  Speaker 5: thirteen to two strike out, walk, ratio. But what I
• 30:28
  Speaker 5: will say is that most of those numbers were earlier
• 30:31
  Speaker 5: in Martin's career. Like this is this has been a
• 30:33
  Speaker 5: breakout season for him and Kansas City only faced him
• 30:37
  Speaker 5: once this season and he pretty much silenced them. So
• 30:40
  Speaker 5: that's the thing, Like how much weight do you want
• 30:42
  Speaker 5: to give these numbers here? Because these numbers were all
• 30:44
  Speaker 5: in the past. He wasn't good against them, and you.
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: Know this year he is better.
• 30:50
  Speaker 5: It does look like he is bouncing back, although his
• 30:52
  Speaker 5: walk rate is concerning this month. Over the course of
• 30:55
  Speaker 5: the season, though, he does have a low hit rate,
• 30:57
  Speaker 5: low walk rate, and a pretty high strikeout rate.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: So what do we want to do with this?
• 31:01
  Speaker 5: Well, I mean, I'm not gonna put it on my card,
• 31:03
  Speaker 5: but I like Kansas City. I would go Kansas City
• 31:06
  Speaker 5: first five.
• 31:07
  Speaker 3: Here.
• 31:07
  Speaker 5: You're gonna get them as an underdog in the first five,
• 31:10
  Speaker 5: probably not as much as you would in the full game,
• 31:12
  Speaker 5: which is at minus one forty four, you're probably still
• 31:15
  Speaker 5: looking at a first five underdog price on Kansas City, though,
• 31:18
  Speaker 5: that's the way I would go. I'd go with Waka
• 31:22
  Speaker 5: to outpitch Martin in the first five here. Uh seventy
• 31:25
  Speaker 5: six percent of tickets on the White Sox eighty eight
• 31:28
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on Kansas City. So the money
• 31:30
  Speaker 5: is backing the Royals there, So do with that what
• 31:35
  Speaker 5: you want. But the money seems like it does agree
• 31:37
  Speaker 5: with me there, I would lean that way. Like I said,
• 31:40
  Speaker 5: so next game up is going to be my only
• 31:42
  Speaker 5: other play of the day, So you guys can just
• 31:45
  Speaker 5: leave and not have to listen to my bullshit or
• 31:48
  Speaker 5: my voice. We're gonna go with Arizona. But I'm gonna
• 31:53
  Speaker 5: make this a split bet. I mean, if you want
• 31:55
  Speaker 5: to just take Arizona on the money line, I'm not
• 31:56
  Speaker 5: gonna disagree with that, but I'm making it a split
• 31:59
  Speaker 5: be here to get the price more close to the
• 32:02
  Speaker 5: minus one ten range. Here, this is about a minus
• 32:04
  Speaker 5: one seventeen combined price on this Arizona plus the one
• 32:09
  Speaker 5: and a half runs at minus one sixty on the
• 32:11
  Speaker 5: underdog run line and plus one thirty five. I found
• 32:15
  Speaker 5: that run line at the Roman Emperor book, and I
• 32:17
  Speaker 5: found the money line at a different book, which I
• 32:22
  Speaker 5: think was the book that used to be owned by ESPN,
• 32:24
  Speaker 5: but it's.
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: Now a Scoreboard book.
• 32:26
  Speaker 5: But still, I mean, I think if you go to
• 32:27
  Speaker 5: the Roman Emperor's book. You're gonna find similar numbers on
• 32:30
  Speaker 5: both lines there, so the price will be very similar
• 32:34
  Speaker 5: to this. Again, if you want to just go money
• 32:36
  Speaker 5: line with it, you could do that. I think Arizona
• 32:38
  Speaker 5: is going to win this game. This is against Tampa
• 32:41
  Speaker 5: Bay here. Obviously, I wouldn't play it if I didn't
• 32:43
  Speaker 5: think they were gonna win, or I have a good
• 32:46
  Speaker 5: chance to win, Like at least I'm saying, I think
• 32:48
  Speaker 5: Arizona has a better chance to win than what these
• 32:50
  Speaker 5: odds are here. Tampa Bay, they've looked good recently. They
• 32:54
  Speaker 5: won again yesterday. They've looked too good recently, to be honest,
• 32:57
  Speaker 5: beating the Royals thirteen to two at home. I mean,
• 33:00
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure I'm that impressed by that. And then
• 33:02
  Speaker 5: they won six to one in the first game of
• 33:04
  Speaker 5: this series. And I know Arizona hasn't been hitting. Arizona
• 33:09
  Speaker 5: is twenty sixth in offense, tied with the Mariners right now.
• 33:12
  Speaker 5: I know that's not good. And the Rays are thirteenth
• 33:15
  Speaker 5: right now. They haven't been hitting better recently. But I
• 33:18
  Speaker 5: like how this pitching matchup sets up for Arizona, man.
• 33:22
  Speaker 3: And I think we do have a little bit of a.
• 33:23
  Speaker 5: Bullpen as with Arizona here too, they only use one
• 33:26
  Speaker 5: relief pitcher in the last two days because they got
• 33:29
  Speaker 5: a day off because of a rainout, So this Arizona
• 33:32
  Speaker 5: team is rested here.
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: Man. They didn't play on Thursday and then Friday.
• 33:36
  Speaker 5: Yesterday they only use one relief pitcher, so I think
• 33:39
  Speaker 5: we do get a nice rest advantage here with Arizona.
• 33:42
  Speaker 3: Tampa Bay had to play both of those days. They
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: did use four relief pitchers.
• 33:46
  Speaker 5: Yesterday, and Tampa Bay's bullpen is not great. They're ranked fourteenth,
• 33:50
  Speaker 5: but their ERA is worse than all these teams around them,
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: so they're worse era wise than that actually tied with
• 33:57
  Speaker 5: Houston now in RA, although Houston's gotten.
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: Better, like I said, that's why that's the case.
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: Arizona's bullpen is at eighth, although again their ERA is
• 34:06
  Speaker 5: not great, so I don't love their bullpen, but they
• 34:09
  Speaker 5: do still have a better ray than Tampa and I
• 34:11
  Speaker 5: think their bullpen sets up better here, so I like it,
• 34:15
  Speaker 5: and I like the starting pitching. We're gonna back Jose Cabrera,
• 34:19
  Speaker 5: and I will say that when you play this, usually
• 34:21
  Speaker 5: specify Cabrera must start for Arizona, but don't specify a
• 34:25
  Speaker 5: starting pitcher for Tampa Bay.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: Well, let me think about that.
• 34:30
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's what I would do, because my
• 34:32
  Speaker 5: only worry is that Tampa Bay is gonna switch to
• 34:34
  Speaker 5: Rasmusen here because this is an evening game, so you
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: don't really know exactly what they're gonna do yet, but
• 34:39
  Speaker 5: it looks like, as far as it is now, Tampa's
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: going with a bullpen game, and my worry is that
• 34:44
  Speaker 5: Tampa might go with a bullpen game but use a
• 34:46
  Speaker 5: different opener, you know what I mean. Cole Sulser is
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: listed as the opener here right now. He's definitely gonna
• 34:53
  Speaker 5: be an opener. He's a relief pitcher. He does not
• 34:55
  Speaker 5: go for deep appearances. He's also a thirty six year
• 34:59
  Speaker 5: old with terrible numbers, so although.
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: He hasn't allowed to run in his last.
• 35:04
  Speaker 5: Four appearances, but he's probably only gonna go about an
• 35:06
  Speaker 5: inning here. And Rasmussen is actually scheduled to pitch tomorrow,
• 35:10
  Speaker 5: so it does look like Tampa is sticking to the
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: schedule here and they will be going with a bullpen
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: game here, So I like that. I'm trying to think
• 35:19
  Speaker 5: of how you want to specify this though, because the
• 35:21
  Speaker 5: worry is are they gonna move Rasmussen up. That would
• 35:23
  Speaker 5: be my one worry, Like, the only way that I like,
• 35:26
  Speaker 5: that's the one thing that would keep me away from
• 35:29
  Speaker 5: Arizona here is if Tampa switches to Rasmussen here, that
• 35:32
  Speaker 5: would be my only concern. But I don't think they're
• 35:34
  Speaker 5: gonna do that, So I think you go Arizona Cabrera
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: must start, and don't specify starter for Tampa Bay or
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: you know, if if you want to avoid the risk,
• 35:44
  Speaker 5: you could specify Sulser must start. Or I think here's
• 35:49
  Speaker 5: what you do. Actually, here's the better way to do this. Wait,
• 35:52
  Speaker 5: wait until it gets closer to game time, and wait
• 35:56
  Speaker 5: until the starting pitcher is announced, and then make the
• 35:58
  Speaker 5: play and specify both starters must start. You know what
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, That's how I'm gonna tract this. Let's let's
• 36:05
  Speaker 5: do it that way. I don't know if you're gonna
• 36:07
  Speaker 5: get exactly the same number here, but I don't think
• 36:09
  Speaker 5: it's gonna be that far off from this, So yeah,
• 36:12
  Speaker 5: I would just wait until the evening, keep an eye
• 36:14
  Speaker 5: on it, and then once the pitchers are actually announced,
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: as long as it's not Rasmussen, make the play with
• 36:21
  Speaker 5: the starters.
• 36:21
  Speaker 3: Must start. But I want to back Cabrera here. Man.
• 36:24
  Speaker 5: He's a young pitcher. He's literally only made one start
• 36:27
  Speaker 5: so far in his major league career, and it was good.
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: He shut out in Minnesota for five innings only through
• 36:33
  Speaker 5: sixty two pitches, had three hits allowed, no walks, and
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: three strikeouts.
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: I like it, man.
• 36:38
  Speaker 5: It looks like he's off and running, like there was
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: no nervousness with him there.
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: That's good.
• 36:44
  Speaker 5: I know this is gonna be his first road start,
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: but sometimes the home start is actually worse for your
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: major league debut because there's like more pressure on you,
• 36:51
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. You're in front of the
• 36:52
  Speaker 5: home crowd. A lot of times you can be looser
• 36:54
  Speaker 5: on the road because less is kind of expected of you,
• 36:57
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. And Tampa, of course is
• 36:59
  Speaker 5: now faced him before, so I think that's an extra
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: advantage to him.
• 37:03
  Speaker 3: So I like the setup. I like Cabrera here.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: I don't like the Tampa Bay setup if they're going
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: with a bullpen game obviously, so Arizona is the play there,
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: all right. Washington and Baltimore in the DC area rivalry.
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: Baltimore won yesterday three to one, a surprisingly low scoring game.
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: There. I don't know how that happened.
• 37:26
  Speaker 5: This game today looks like it should be lower scoring
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: than yesterday's game by far, but it's not going to be.
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: I mean, this is not gonna be a four run
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: game here.
• 37:33
  Speaker 5: Probably Washington used two relief pitchers yesterday, Baltimore used three.
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: I don't like either bullpen, as you know, Washington's is
• 37:42
  Speaker 5: worse though, Washington twenty six.
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: They're really bad. Their eras over five.
• 37:47
  Speaker 5: Baltimore mid range bullpen at seventeenth not great offense is
• 37:53
  Speaker 5: definitely gonna do damage.
• 37:54
  Speaker 3: Washington number six, Baltimore.
• 37:56
  Speaker 5: Fifteen, which is why I thought yesterday looked like an overgame,
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: especially with the starting pitching. This starting pitching matchup looks
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: way better than yesterday's, though. Washington's going with Foster Griffin.
• 38:07
  Speaker 5: Griffin is having a shockingly good season, man, and it
• 38:10
  Speaker 5: is continuing. He's got a three point one five RA
• 38:14
  Speaker 5: one point six whip. He's been basically the same home
• 38:17
  Speaker 5: and away, so he's been good either way. He's allowed
• 38:20
  Speaker 5: one run each in every outing this month. He's gone
• 38:23
  Speaker 5: at least five innings in every single one of them.
• 38:25
  Speaker 5: Twenty four to two strikeout walk ratio in twenty four
• 38:28
  Speaker 5: to thirty ings with eighteen hits allowed. He's been really
• 38:31
  Speaker 5: good this month, dude. He's obviously in good form right now.
• 38:34
  Speaker 5: Not a lot to dislike here about Griffin. He's got
• 38:37
  Speaker 5: a low hit rate, low walk rate as well. His
• 38:40
  Speaker 5: strikeout rate is pretty decent as well. Yeah, I mean,
• 38:43
  Speaker 5: he's been one of the biggest surprises of the season.
• 38:46
  Speaker 5: Baltimore also basically hasn't faced him. Only Taylor Ward has
• 38:50
  Speaker 5: faced him. He is won for two with a double
• 38:51
  Speaker 5: against him. No strikeouts, no walks, obviously no strikeouts. But Griffin,
• 38:56
  Speaker 5: he's basically unfamiliar to Baltimore. He's pitching really well, so
• 39:00
  Speaker 5: I think Griffin should continue to pitch pretty well here.
• 39:03
  Speaker 5: Brandon Young is pitching for Baltimore. This has been kind
• 39:07
  Speaker 5: of his breakout season so far. Man Young, I mean,
• 39:09
  Speaker 5: he's always a guy that I've thought had some talent
• 39:12
  Speaker 5: but it never really materialized. But this year he's been
• 39:15
  Speaker 5: pretty good. A three point h seven e RA, one
• 39:18
  Speaker 5: point two TOY six whip good at home, two point
• 39:21
  Speaker 5: eight home e RA.
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: He's been pitching better recently.
• 39:24
  Speaker 5: He's actually allowed three or fewer earned runs in every
• 39:26
  Speaker 5: start through the beginning of May and Baltimore's only lost
• 39:30
  Speaker 5: one start of his since then, so they're doing well
• 39:34
  Speaker 5: behind him, and he's pitching pretty well. Those walk numbers
• 39:36
  Speaker 5: gone up, or well, not really gone up, but his
• 39:38
  Speaker 5: walk numbers remained too high, I mean, I mean to say,
• 39:41
  Speaker 5: but he hasn't been very hittable either, so the walks
• 39:44
  Speaker 5: are still the concern with him. Also, his strikeout rate
• 39:48
  Speaker 5: is not that high. He's not a strikeout pitcher, but
• 39:49
  Speaker 5: his hit rate is low. His walk rate is too high.
• 39:53
  Speaker 5: You know, the advanced analytics guys are gonna say there
• 39:55
  Speaker 5: is some regression probably in store for him here. His
• 39:57
  Speaker 5: whip is not exactly excellent, but it's not terrible. I
• 40:02
  Speaker 5: think he's alright though, in the fact that he just
• 40:04
  Speaker 5: gave up one ear and run in five innings against
• 40:06
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers last time out.
• 40:08
  Speaker 3: That's a good sign, dude.
• 40:10
  Speaker 5: You know, he's not intimidated by these bigger offenses, these
• 40:13
  Speaker 5: elite offenses.
• 40:15
  Speaker 3: Against Washington.
• 40:16
  Speaker 5: He has not done well against Washington though, in small
• 40:19
  Speaker 5: sample size thirteen at bats three eighty five average allowed
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: the eleven ninety two ops two to three strike up
• 40:25
  Speaker 5: walk ratios, So that is a concern. He hasn't done
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: well against Washington. He did actually face them in the
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: middle of May. I'm yeah so, and he did only
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: allow two runs against them, But that was his one
• 40:38
  Speaker 5: really bad start in that entire span that I mentioned.
• 40:41
  Speaker 5: Baltimore actually excuse me, yeah, Baltimore actually still won that game,
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: but Young only went three and two thirds innings in
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: that when he threw too many pitches, only allowed two runs,
• 40:51
  Speaker 5: but he didn't make it deep into that game. So
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: that was his worst outing since the beginning of May.
• 40:57
  Speaker 5: It did happen to come against Washington. I still think
• 41:01
  Speaker 5: this game does kind of look like a first five under,
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: though I kind of like how both starting pitchers set up,
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: so I wouldn't disagree with the first five under. I
• 41:08
  Speaker 5: would not include the bullpens for obvious reasons. But we
• 41:11
  Speaker 5: have fifty eight percent of the tickets on the under
• 41:13
  Speaker 5: and ninety percent of the cash on the over, and
• 41:15
  Speaker 5: the total is high at nine. But it kind of
• 41:18
  Speaker 5: has to be for a Washington game, like you kind
• 41:21
  Speaker 5: of have to put its total high because Washington, like Minnesota,
• 41:25
  Speaker 5: Washington plays a ton of high scoring games.
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: Washington has a good offense and.
• 41:28
  Speaker 5: A terrible bullpen, and a lot of their starting pitchers
• 41:31
  Speaker 5: are bad too, but this is Griffin is probably their
• 41:34
  Speaker 5: best starting pitchers.
• 41:35
  Speaker 4: So.
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: And then you know, I wouldn't disagree with Washington on
• 41:40
  Speaker 5: the side either, though Baltimore is around minus one twenty
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: sixty two percent of the tickets around Baltimore. The public
• 41:46
  Speaker 5: wants Baltimore. But Washington is a very good road team.
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: Washington has a much better road record than home record.
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: They got home record, what they got their best pitcher
• 41:56
  Speaker 5: on the mound here seventy percent of the cash on Washington,
• 42:00
  Speaker 5: so the money is back in Washington. But again, if
• 42:02
  Speaker 5: I was gonna take Washington first five innings, you gotta
• 42:05
  Speaker 5: do it first five innings. I would not do it
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: full game. Obviously, they're bullpen. It's terrible, although you're gonna
• 42:11
  Speaker 5: get less of a good price on it, like they
• 42:12
  Speaker 5: might even actually be a favorite in the first five.
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: But that's still the.
• 42:16
  Speaker 5: Way that I would do that if I was gonna
• 42:17
  Speaker 5: play that side there, I forgot to take that down,
• 42:21
  Speaker 5: all right. Uh, all right, Seattle and Cleveland. I'm trying
• 42:25
  Speaker 5: to go through this quick man, because I also have
• 42:27
  Speaker 5: to leave Cleveland lost in the return home spot yesterday,
• 42:31
  Speaker 5: which doesn't surprise me. I mean, you're returning home from
• 42:33
  Speaker 5: a long road trip. It's not an easy spot. And
• 42:36
  Speaker 5: Cleveland just doesn't score a lot at home or really
• 42:39
  Speaker 5: in general right now, and their offense is pretty ugly
• 42:42
  Speaker 5: right now with all these injuries.
• 42:43
  Speaker 3: They lost three to one yesterday.
• 42:44
  Speaker 5: Luis Castillo finally had a good start for once. But
• 42:48
  Speaker 5: again I told you I thought Castillo was gonna start
• 42:51
  Speaker 5: pitching better at some point, so that makes sense. Now,
• 42:55
  Speaker 5: is this game gonna be another under I mean it could.
• 42:58
  Speaker 5: The oddsmakers will put up a low toed here. They
• 43:01
  Speaker 5: kind of have to in these Cleveland home games at
• 43:03
  Speaker 5: this point because these games tend to be so low scoring.
• 43:06
  Speaker 5: Cleveland use four relief pitchers yesterday, Seattle used three to
• 43:11
  Speaker 5: Both bullpens are pretty good.
• 43:13
  Speaker 3: Seattle's is better.
• 43:14
  Speaker 5: Seattle's marked fifteenth, but their eray is quite good, so
• 43:17
  Speaker 5: I think they're like a top ten bullpen.
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: Cleveland is a little bit worse at eighteenth.
• 43:21
  Speaker 5: Still a decent bullpen for Cleveland, though, although they let
• 43:25
  Speaker 5: me down at least once last week.
• 43:29
  Speaker 3: Let me see her. Maybe I think it was just once.
• 43:31
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 43:32
  Speaker 5: Cleveland's offense, like I said, really really struggling recently. At
• 43:35
  Speaker 5: twenty eighth Seattle, though they've been struggling to they're at
• 43:38
  Speaker 5: twenty six, tied with Arizona. Although I think Seattle is
• 43:41
  Speaker 5: definitely the better offense here. But Seattle does have injuries
• 43:44
  Speaker 5: as well, but they have more they have more of
• 43:48
  Speaker 5: an ability to overcome that, just because their offense, when
• 43:51
  Speaker 5: it's fully loaded, their offense is definitely better than Cleveland's,
• 43:55
  Speaker 5: and with injuries on both sides, yeah, Seattle's offense is
• 43:58
  Speaker 5: still the better one. Logan Gilbert is pitching for Seattle.
• 44:01
  Speaker 5: He's been really good recently, and he's had a good
• 44:04
  Speaker 5: season too. Three point two ninety RA, one point zero
• 44:07
  Speaker 5: one Whip. He's been really good on the road one
• 44:10
  Speaker 5: point oh four roady rail.
• 44:11
  Speaker 4: Though.
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: I said he was gonna start getting better at home,
• 44:14
  Speaker 5: which has happened, because just.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: The amount of home runs he's allowed at home made
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: absolutely no sense.
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: Seattle is a very pitcher friendly ballpark and he's typically
• 44:23
  Speaker 5: been good there.
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: But he's been pitching.
• 44:25
  Speaker 5: Really good on the road, so I don't think you
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: really want to fade him here, and he's been in
• 44:28
  Speaker 5: really good for him. He's allowed one or zero earned
• 44:32
  Speaker 5: run in whatever this is, five of his last six
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: starts and his team has won every one of those games.
• 44:41
  Speaker 3: Uh So, yeah, he's pitching really well right now.
• 44:45
  Speaker 5: This should be an easy matchup for him as well
• 44:47
  Speaker 5: against Cleveland. He's got really good numbers against Cleveland in
• 44:50
  Speaker 5: forty eight at bats sixteen to zero strikeout walk ratio
• 44:54
  Speaker 5: here is that good?
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 44:57
  Speaker 5: Two eight batting average six to twenty five. Oh ps,
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: Gilbert should do well again here. He's in really good form.
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: The road numbers look really good. He's got a really
• 45:06
  Speaker 5: good match up here. He should outpitch Slade Chaconi, who
• 45:10
  Speaker 5: is definitely not as good. Four point four to eighty
• 45:13
  Speaker 5: r for him, one point four whip not very good.
• 45:16
  Speaker 5: He's a little bit better at home though, four point
• 45:19
  Speaker 5: h seven homier in Chaconi has actually been better this month.
• 45:22
  Speaker 5: He's allowed two or fewer earned runs in every start
• 45:25
  Speaker 5: this month. He's got at least five innings in all
• 45:27
  Speaker 5: of them. And he was not having easy opponents here.
• 45:30
  Speaker 5: He faced the Yankees twice in a row Milwaukee and Houston, and.
• 45:35
  Speaker 3: Cleveland lost every one of those games.
• 45:37
  Speaker 5: That's because Cleveland scored no more than two in any
• 45:41
  Speaker 5: of those games. So yeah, he's actually pitching pretty well
• 45:45
  Speaker 5: right now. Cleveland's offense has been awful behind him, so
• 45:48
  Speaker 5: he's getting absolutely no help from them. But he is
• 45:52
  Speaker 5: in good form right now, so I don't really want
• 45:54
  Speaker 5: to fade him. Although a little bit of a red
• 45:56
  Speaker 5: flag they only had one strikeout last time out against Houston.
• 45:59
  Speaker 5: But yeah, I mean, he's definitely been good really going
• 46:04
  Speaker 5: kind of through like the middle of May, he's been
• 46:06
  Speaker 5: pretty good. So he does look pretty good right now.
• 46:09
  Speaker 5: His hit rate is still too high on the season,
• 46:11
  Speaker 5: those walk rate is not that bad though, and his
• 46:14
  Speaker 5: strike out rate is low. He's not a strikeout guy,
• 46:17
  Speaker 5: but he is pitching better right now, and he does
• 46:19
  Speaker 5: have good numbers against the Mariners in twenty nine at
• 46:22
  Speaker 5: bats two forty one average, six fifty seven OPS eight
• 46:26
  Speaker 5: to three strike out walk ratio, so chacone. Yeah, I mean,
• 46:32
  Speaker 5: I still like Seattle in this game, but Cleveland is
• 46:34
  Speaker 5: in one of those spots that's a bounce back spot,
• 46:36
  Speaker 5: like I always talking about when a team returns home
• 46:39
  Speaker 5: from the road and they don't do well in that game.
• 46:41
  Speaker 5: A lot of times they do bounce back and they
• 46:42
  Speaker 5: play a much better game in the second game. So
• 46:45
  Speaker 5: I don't really want to take Seattle here. You're gonna
• 46:48
  Speaker 5: have to play them as a road favorite. If you
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: do play them here, I'm pretty sure. Let me see,
• 46:52
  Speaker 5: where are we looking at? Yeah, Seattle's yeah minus one
• 46:56
  Speaker 5: forty eight. Basically here looks like they are getting some
• 46:58
  Speaker 5: of the money although they are all public eighty five
• 47:01
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets ninety percent of the cash on them.
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: The money's also backing the over fifty five percent of
• 47:06
  Speaker 5: tickets on the under sixty two percent of the cash
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: on the over.
• 47:10
  Speaker 3: I think this game looks like an under.
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: Both starting pitchers actually have pretty good matchup numbers here,
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: they're both in pretty good form right now, and we
• 47:17
  Speaker 5: got two pretty good bullpens here. So yeah, I think
• 47:20
  Speaker 5: the under makes more sense in that game. It might
• 47:22
  Speaker 5: make more sense than anything else. Although I'd still agree
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: with the Seattle side if you really wanted to play
• 47:27
  Speaker 5: a side there, because I think they have the better
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: starting pitcher here still, and they have the better bullpen
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: and the better offense. So I'd still need a Seattle
• 47:35
  Speaker 5: because I think they have all the matchup edges, but
• 47:37
  Speaker 5: that is a little bit of a price there. Seems
• 47:40
  Speaker 5: like the public and maybe the professionals are all on
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: Seattle there though, But yeah, an under to me does
• 47:45
  Speaker 5: make sense in that game too, total seven and a
• 47:47
  Speaker 5: half juice to the under, So it is low for
• 47:50
  Speaker 5: a reason. All right, Uh, Cubs in Milwaukee, Milwaukee, even
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: though they were returning home, they had Mizerowski on the
• 47:57
  Speaker 5: mound yesterday, So I really did not want to fade
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: that Milwaukee still had all the match up batches and
• 48:02
  Speaker 5: arrest advantage yesterday because the Cubs had that double header
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: a couple of days ago. Milwaukee got the win, not
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: really surprising. They won six to two. Mizierowski throw a
• 48:12
  Speaker 5: one hundred and five and a half mile an hour
• 48:14
  Speaker 5: pitch in the game yesterday, which was the highest pitch
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: recorded in a Major League Baseball game in the last
• 48:20
  Speaker 5: like twenty years or something. I need to look at
• 48:23
  Speaker 5: who do we think threw that pitch that was that fast?
• 48:26
  Speaker 5: I think they said it was actually in like two
• 48:28
  Speaker 5: thousand and eight, I think is what I saw. I
• 48:30
  Speaker 5: was trying to guess who that pitcher would have been, Like,
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: which pitcher in two thousand and eight was the fastest?
• 48:36
  Speaker 5: Three It had to have been a relief pitcher, right like,
• 48:39
  Speaker 5: because Mizierowski is like the only unless the stat was
• 48:43
  Speaker 5: that it came from a starter. I don't know, I'll
• 48:44
  Speaker 5: have to look that up, but usually like nobody throws
• 48:48
  Speaker 5: quite that hard though I don't know. I mean, I
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: don't know, I'm gonna have to look it up, but
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: it was something like that. Anyway, Milwaukee, they do have
• 48:57
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen here. These three guys out of the bullpen. Yes,
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: today the Cubs only used two, so they did start
• 49:03
  Speaker 5: being able to rest their bullpen a little bit here.
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: So the Cubs should be in a little bit better
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: shape here. They're the eleventh ranked bullpen, Milwaukee's twelfth. But
• 49:11
  Speaker 5: Milwaukee's got the better bullpeny Ray, I think Milwaukee is
• 49:13
  Speaker 5: the better bullpen here. The Cubs are the slightly better
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: offense at seven, Milwaukee tenth. Cubs, though, I mean, this
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: is I don't know what to say about this. Look
• 49:25
  Speaker 5: who's pitching for the Cubs. Man making his Cub debut.
• 49:30
  Speaker 5: He was just released by the Mets. Are good pal,
• 49:33
  Speaker 5: David Peterson is making the start I guess for the
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: Cubs here. They might put an opener in front of him,
• 49:40
  Speaker 5: though I don't know. I wouldn't be entirely sure that
• 49:42
  Speaker 5: Peterson is actually gonna make the start here, but whatever,
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: Man the Cubs. They got some injuries in the rotation heres,
• 49:49
  Speaker 5: so they they picked up David Peterson.
• 49:52
  Speaker 3: And you know, I am not a fan.
• 49:55
  Speaker 5: I mean, why would I pay six point h ninety
• 49:58
  Speaker 5: ra one point six y five whip this some bad
• 50:00
  Speaker 5: stuff here? He was a little bit better on the
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: road though, so far five point zero three Roadie all
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: right with the Mets this year. Wasn't pitching well at
• 50:10
  Speaker 5: all this month, and the Mets got rid of him.
• 50:12
  Speaker 5: He'd allowed thirteen or in runs and ten and two
• 50:14
  Speaker 5: thirds innings this month. Yeah, that's not good on fifteen hits,
• 50:18
  Speaker 5: six walks, seven strikeouts. Nothing to like about any of
• 50:21
  Speaker 5: those numbers. So the Mets got rid of them. And
• 50:25
  Speaker 5: that's that's even a worse sign. If you're on like
• 50:29
  Speaker 5: one of the teams with the worst records in baseball
• 50:32
  Speaker 5: and they get rid of you, that is really not
• 50:34
  Speaker 5: a good sign. He's not even good enough for the Mets. However,
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: he's now on a contending team, the Cubs. They might
• 50:41
  Speaker 5: be a playoff team here. So the one thing about
• 50:44
  Speaker 5: this is that when a pitcher goes from like a
• 50:47
  Speaker 5: bad scenario like the Mets, where the team's not playing
• 50:50
  Speaker 5: well and they go to a team that actually is
• 50:52
  Speaker 5: a contender, like the Cubs, he might actually pitch better.
• 50:55
  Speaker 5: He might actually be excited to be on a contending team,
• 50:58
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. So I wouldn't really blindly
• 51:01
  Speaker 5: fade Peterson here, but his number suck. He's got a
• 51:04
  Speaker 5: high hit rate, really high. His walk rate is also terrible.
• 51:07
  Speaker 5: His strike out rate is okay. He does induce a
• 51:10
  Speaker 5: lot of ground balls still, but that masks how bad
• 51:13
  Speaker 5: he is a lot of the time. His numbers against Milwaukee, though,
• 51:16
  Speaker 5: are actually really pretty good. And I'm forty nine at
• 51:19
  Speaker 5: bats one eighty four batting average, five point twenty three ohps,
• 51:22
  Speaker 5: fourteen to eight strike out walk ratio. That's the only
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: bad number here again is the walks. So Peterson actually
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: could be excited here, and he does draw actually a
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: decent matchup for himself here against Milwaukee, So I don't
• 51:36
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna blindly fade Peterson here, but he's obviously
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: the lesser pitcher here going up against Kyle Harrison, who's
• 51:43
  Speaker 5: been excellent two point five RRA, one point six WHIP,
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: one point two ninety RRA at home.
• 51:48
  Speaker 3: He's been really, really good.
• 51:50
  Speaker 5: Obviously, he had one stumble at that a stadium in Vegas,
• 51:55
  Speaker 5: so I'm gonna completely give him a pass for that.
• 51:57
  Speaker 5: He's bounced back completely on his last two starts. He's
• 52:00
  Speaker 5: been fine, and both of those better than fine. Harrison's
• 52:04
  Speaker 5: been awesome like all season except for that one bad
• 52:07
  Speaker 5: start for the most part.
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: A little bit shaky really early in the season.
• 52:10
  Speaker 5: But other than that, low hit rate, low walk rate,
• 52:14
  Speaker 5: high strikeout rate, really only things to like about Harrison here,
• 52:19
  Speaker 5: and he also dominates the Cobs. Twenty seven at bats,
• 52:22
  Speaker 5: he only have one extra base he had a double
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: from Horner. He's only allowed two hits to them, thirteen strikeouts,
• 52:29
  Speaker 5: one walk, so half of the bats have been strikeouts
• 52:32
  Speaker 5: seventy basically seventy four average allowed to eighteen ops. Harrison
• 52:37
  Speaker 5: has absolutely burned through this lineup, although now the Cubs
• 52:42
  Speaker 5: will have seen him a little bit more so maybe
• 52:44
  Speaker 5: that'll help them a little bit.
• 52:45
  Speaker 3: But you know, when I first looked at this, I was.
• 52:48
  Speaker 5: Like, you have to lean Milwaukee here, like Harrison against Peterson,
• 52:51
  Speaker 5: Come on, man, And I still think I probably do
• 52:55
  Speaker 5: lean that way. But Peterson there are some reasons why
• 52:58
  Speaker 5: maybe he won't be that bad here. Milwaukee has minus
• 53:01
  Speaker 5: won sixty something year. I mean, it's probably justified given
• 53:06
  Speaker 5: what this pitching matchup is.
• 53:07
  Speaker 3: The money is coming in.
• 53:08
  Speaker 5: Slightly that way, even though they're public eighty eight percent
• 53:11
  Speaker 5: of tickets ninety three percent of the cash on the Brewers.
• 53:15
  Speaker 5: You know, if you wanted to do a split bet
• 53:17
  Speaker 5: partially run line, partially money line in Milwaukee, I could
• 53:21
  Speaker 5: see why you'd want to do it. Like you know,
• 53:23
  Speaker 5: I'm not gonna get there with that, though. The money's
• 53:26
  Speaker 5: also backing the over sixty five percent of tickets ninety
• 53:29
  Speaker 5: five percent of the cash on the over.
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: I do not buy that total at eight.
• 53:34
  Speaker 5: Although if you do think the over is correct and
• 53:36
  Speaker 5: the money is backing it, and you do think Milwaukee
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: will win, then naturally Milwaukee going over their team total
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: makes sense here. You could take Milwaukee to just score
• 53:46
  Speaker 5: some runs here against good old Peterson.
• 53:49
  Speaker 3: However, I actually think it under makes more sense in
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: this game. The totals at eight.
• 53:54
  Speaker 5: The bullpen's the Cubs bullpens in a little bit better
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: shape now after they were able to rest yesterday. For
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: the most part, both starting pitchers might actually do well
• 54:04
  Speaker 5: enough for that to happen, So I think it under
• 54:06
  Speaker 5: makes sense in that game, and.
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: To me.
• 54:09
  Speaker 5: You would think the public would come in on an
• 54:11
  Speaker 5: over in a Cubs and Brewers game, you know, because
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: everybody just kind of knows both these teams could score
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: some runs.
• 54:17
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: I think an under does actually kind of make sense there.
• 54:21
  Speaker 5: All right, I'm gonna be right back. I'll talk about
• 54:23
  Speaker 5: the rest of these. I will say, hello, what's up, Charles,
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: mister pinsy. I gave you guys the bets already. Those
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: are my only plays today. Yes, so Cincinnati first five
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: and Arizona split bet, run line, money line, those are
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: my only plays.
• 54:39
  Speaker 3: I will be back in a second. All right. Next
• 56:10
  Speaker 3: game is Colorado Minnesota.
• 56:11
  Speaker 5: I did talk about yesterday how this looked like an
• 56:13
  Speaker 5: over series, though I wasn't sure about that pitching matchup yesterday,
• 56:17
  Speaker 5: but yeah, that game went over nine to eight, Minnesota win.
• 56:22
  Speaker 5: I did just talk about how Minnesota plays the highest
• 56:24
  Speaker 5: scoring home games in baseball because they scored decently and
• 56:28
  Speaker 5: they're off and they're a bullpen. I mean, it's terrible
• 56:32
  Speaker 5: looking at the bullpens. Yeah, Minnesota is twenty ninth out
• 56:35
  Speaker 5: of thirty only because the Royals are so bad. Yesterday
• 56:38
  Speaker 5: they overtook Minnesota, so congratulations, Colorado twenty seven. They got
• 56:44
  Speaker 5: their year array below five. Again, still really not good.
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: Both teams have been able to hit. The Rockies are
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: eighth Minnesota ninth in offense. So again, this does look
• 56:55
  Speaker 5: like it's gonna be a series with overs coming in
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: we already did have one. This does look more over
• 57:01
  Speaker 5: conduced of this time. I'm not gonna do it, but
• 57:04
  Speaker 5: probably that would be the way I would look at
• 57:06
  Speaker 5: this game. Michael lorenz And is pitching for the Rockies.
• 57:09
  Speaker 5: He is not good at all. Seven point one one ERA,
• 57:13
  Speaker 5: one point eight three whip is ridiculously bad. He is
• 57:17
  Speaker 5: better on the road. I mean it makes sense, you know,
• 57:19
  Speaker 5: pitching a course field is awful, but his ERA on
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: the road is still bad.
• 57:24
  Speaker 3: Six point oh five. That's not good.
• 57:27
  Speaker 5: He has pitched a little bit better this month though,
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: does have twenty two strikeouts at six walks this month.
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: That's not too bad. He's been too hit able, but
• 57:36
  Speaker 5: it was mostly one start against Anaheim, so his last
• 57:38
  Speaker 5: three starts he's actually been significantly better, really against the
• 57:43
  Speaker 5: Cubs and Pittsburgh in those three starts, so those were
• 57:47
  Speaker 5: not easy offenses to face. So Lorenzen is actually pitching
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: a little bit better right now, but it's still he
• 57:54
  Speaker 5: has a ridiculously high hit rate. His walk rate is
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: not too bad, but it's not great. Strike got rad
• 58:00
  Speaker 5: is not great. You know, there's not a lot to
• 58:04
  Speaker 5: like here. His numbers against Minnesota are not very good.
• 58:06
  Speaker 5: Two sixty seven average, eight oh six ops a lot
• 58:09
  Speaker 5: in seventy five at bats, fourteen to five strike out
• 58:12
  Speaker 5: walk ratio. Yeah, I mean, I still think he's probably
• 58:15
  Speaker 5: fatable here. Minnesota's got the wild card here with Mike
• 58:20
  Speaker 5: Parades going here four point zero five yar ray for him,
• 58:24
  Speaker 5: one point two whip. He's made five appearances so far,
• 58:28
  Speaker 5: three starts all this season.
• 58:31
  Speaker 3: He's been okay. I mean, I don't know, man.
• 58:34
  Speaker 5: If you look at his numbers, he's got a low
• 58:35
  Speaker 5: hit rate, but his walk rate is way too high.
• 58:38
  Speaker 5: His strike out rate is really low. That worries me
• 58:41
  Speaker 5: that he's just not fooling hitters. You know, he's not
• 58:44
  Speaker 5: really going deep into games either. He finally went five
• 58:46
  Speaker 5: innings last time out against Arizona, but he only had
• 58:49
  Speaker 5: one strikeout there.
• 58:51
  Speaker 3: So I don't know what to think about him.
• 58:53
  Speaker 5: I don't think he's that good though, if he's not
• 58:54
  Speaker 5: striking anybody out Paradas is he's got no his against Colorado,
• 59:01
  Speaker 5: so he's unfamiliar to them, so maybe he'll be able
• 59:03
  Speaker 5: to pitch well here against Colorado. I still think over
• 59:07
  Speaker 5: is probably the way to go here. You could go
• 59:10
  Speaker 5: twins over their team total, just to take that question
• 59:13
  Speaker 5: mark out of the equation with Parades and just go with.
• 59:18
  Speaker 3: The Minnesota to do scoring off of Colorado.
• 59:20
  Speaker 5: But if you go full game on this, like Minnesota's
• 59:23
  Speaker 5: bullpen is probably gonna be pitching many innings in this game,
• 59:27
  Speaker 5: so that may be the way you want to go.
• 59:29
  Speaker 5: And I forgot to look at the bullpen usage here.
• 59:31
  Speaker 5: Minnesota used four guys yesterday, Colorado used five, So yeah,
• 59:36
  Speaker 5: I mean full game over does make sense. And then
• 59:38
  Speaker 5: you take advantage of two really bad bullpens. Sixty three
• 59:42
  Speaker 5: percent of tickets, ninety one percent of the cash on
• 59:43
  Speaker 5: the over, the total is mostly nine and a half
• 59:46
  Speaker 5: out there. There is a nine at the Roman Emperor's
• 59:51
  Speaker 5: book there, so you can get it. You can get
• 59:55
  Speaker 5: on that key number of nine and go over there
• 59:57
  Speaker 5: with a little bit of juice on the over. That's
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 5: probably the way to play that game. But it's not
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 5: gonna be on my card. I think too many question
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 5: marks there. Miami and Saint Louis. Miami got the win yesterday.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 5: I was right about that game. I thought it would
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 5: be a low scoring Miami win that that was exactly
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 5: what it was. It was a four to nothing Miami
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 5: win behind Max Meyer. Miami is really downgrading and they're
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 5: pitching for today's game though.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 3: Miami does have a good bullpen, and the only.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 5: These two guys yesterday to over the last two days
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 5: because they were resting the day before that. Saint Louis
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 5: more mediocre in the bullpen department, used three guys and
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 5: they did rest the day before that too because they
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 5: had a rain out. But Saint Louis is number twenty
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 5: two in bullpen. They're not really that good. Miami's number two,
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 5: not an ERA, but their bullpen is still one of
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 5: the better. They're like the fourth best bullpen e RA
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 5: or fifth maybe whatever it was.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 3: This is a good Miami.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 5: Bullpen, though offensively not so much for Miami.
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 3: They are where are they at?
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 5: They're eighteenth and Saint Louis is sixteenth, so both kind
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 5: of middle of the pack offenses. Miami's going with Ryan
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 5: Gusto though, and you know, I do not trust Gusto
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 5: at all.
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 3: He's not good.
• 1:01:14
  Speaker 5: Six ERA one point six to one whip, ten point
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 5: eight roady RA.
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 3: That is not good. I tried to.
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 5: Fade him last time out with San Francisco and that
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 5: was a home game for Gusto and he wasn't even
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 5: really that good. He didn't even go the full five
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 5: innings there, but we still couldn't get it done. I
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 5: don't know if it was a push or a loss
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 5: for us there. I think we backed Logan Webbed there. Yeah,
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 5: I don't know what happened there.
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 3: Gusto.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I mean, just can't trust San Francisco's offense. I guess,
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 5: man Gusto. I mean, he hasn't pitched that much this year.
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 5: He's got a high hit rate, those walk rates too
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 5: high as well. Strike got rad is not horrible, but
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 5: there's not a lot to like here. He hasn't been
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 5: seen before by Saint Louis, so I guess he does
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 5: have that advantage of unfamiliar. But I would not want
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 5: to touch Gusto here. Andre Payante is pitching for the Cardinals.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 5: He's actually been decent recently. Three point five to ninety
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 5: RA overall, one point one to nine whip, those numbers
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 5: are not bad. He's been worse at home though, four
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 5: point one seven home ERA.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: But he's been good this month.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 5: He's allowed two or viewer and runs in all four starts,
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 5: but he's faced all pretty weak offenses here Texas, Mets,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 5: San Diego, Arizona. He's had six games in a row
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 5: where his team has won all of those games, though
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 5: with him starting, so Saint Louis is playing well behind him.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 5: He's got good numbers this month sixteen hits and twenty
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 5: four to two thirds innings, eighteen strikeouts, four walks, not
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 5: a high strikeout rate, but rest of these numbers are good,
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 5: but again against weak offenses. So but Miami is not
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 5: exactly a strong offense. He's got a low hit rate
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 5: on the season, his walk rates fairly low as well.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 5: Strikeout rate is also low. Though he's kind of a
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 5: he's more of a ground ball pitcher. He doesn't strike
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 5: a lot of guys out, which again the advanced analytics
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 5: guys don't like, and sometimes I do, sometimes I don't like.
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 5: I usually look at the whip to try to determine
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 5: what I think his numbers are good against Miami, and
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: they only have six hitters who have faced him twenty
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 5: three at bats, no extra base hits, two seventeen average,
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 5: four point thirty five ops four, zero strike out walk ratio.
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 5: So yeah, Payante, I think should pitch well here, even
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 5: though he hasn't been as good at home. I think
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 5: Saint Louis is the way to look here. I think
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 5: they bounce back and they get this win here. They
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 5: got the pitching edge with the money doesn't agree with me.
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 5: Seventy four percent of ticket seventy one percent of the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 5: cash on Saint Louis. You would think the public would
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 5: kind of be backing Miami though, because Miami has been hot.
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 5: I think they've won like five games in a row
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 5: or something. But of course the oddsmakers are telling you
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 5: they don't buy it, especially with this pitching matchup. I mean,
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 5: you have to make Gusto an underdog, especially on the road.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 5: Minus one forty is about the price on Saint Louis.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 5: I would go first five on Saint Lewis, though I
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 5: would not go full game because Miami's bullpen is definitely better.
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 5: The money is also backing the over in this game.
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 5: I don't know about that. I think Saint Louis is
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 5: the better way to look. I think you could lay
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 5: a run line in the first five. Maybe that's the
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 5: way you want to go, because the price is gonna
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 5: be a bit higher to go Saint Louis first five
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 5: because the odds makers know Miami's got the better bullpen,
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 5: So laying a half run in the first five is
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 5: probably what I would do with Saint Louis in that one.
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 3: What's going on here? Oh?
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 5: We have towers going on in the chat ald, I
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 5: was like, am I getting spammed?
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: What's going on here?
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 5: Dodgers San Diego on MLB Network because this is one
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 5: of the big matchups of the weekend.
• 1:04:43
  Speaker 3: San Diego behind Walker Bueller.
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 5: Seven to one win yesterday, Probably not a good sign
• 1:04:48
  Speaker 5: for Sasaki, who pitched in that game. But yeah, the
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 5: Dodgers are probably gonna win this game tonight. Though if
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 5: you haven't seen him, what with the starting pitching matchup
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 5: looks like yet? Yeah? I said that I thought that
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 5: was a beneficial starting pitching matchup. I gave out a
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 5: lean towards San Diego first five last night in that one.
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 5: This is not beneficial at all to San Diego tonight though.
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 5: The Dodgers are the way better team, so highly likely
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers are gonna win this game.
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 3: Here. The Dodgers did use four relief.
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 5: Pitchers yesterday, though San Diego used four as well. San
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 5: Diego does have the better bullpen. They're basically elite. They
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 5: have the second best bullpen in the r RAY, the
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 5: ranked sixth in WHIP, but I think they're probably the
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 5: second best bullpen.
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: Dodgers not too bad.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 5: They're actually ranked fifth in WHIP, although they're not as
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 5: good as San Diego ERA wise, they're a bit behind
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 5: there by three quarters of a run. Dodgers are still
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 5: the number one offense, and rightfully so. San Diego's the
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 5: last ranked offense, so again we have the number one
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 5: offense versus the number thirty offense here. Dodgers are also
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 5: going with Yoshinoba Yamamoto here, so that is a big
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 5: step up up from Sasaki. Yamamoto two point six five
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 5: ERA point eight seven whip is really good. He's been
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 5: good on the road as well, two point one eight ROADIRA.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 5: This is also gonna be a picture from the environment.
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 5: He faced San Diego back in mid May and he
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 5: pretty much dominated them here in this stadium. However, the
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 5: Dodgers scored zero in that game, and he lost the
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 5: game one and nothing, but wasn't his fault.
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 3: He was excellent in that game.
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 5: He's been good, you know, pretty much the entire season,
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 5: and what else is there to say. He's allowed one
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 5: or fewer earned run and all but one of his
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 5: outings since mid May. He's got a decent strikeout raid
• 1:06:39
  Speaker 5: and really low hit rate and really low walk rate too,
• 1:06:43
  Speaker 5: so it all looks pretty.
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 3: Good for him.
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 5: His numbers against San Diego, though, actually don't look that good,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 5: although he dominated them the one time he faced them
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 5: this year. Sixty nine at bats huh, twenty strikeouts, eight
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 5: walks to sixty one average eight forty five ohps. You know,
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 5: I mean, does that mean we should fade Yamamoto? No,
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 5: But those numbers are a little bit questionable, So you know,
• 1:07:07
  Speaker 5: you don't like to see that when you have a
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 5: good pitcher and his matchup numbers happened to just not
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 5: be good against that particular team. But can you really
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 5: predict that this awful offense for San Diego is really
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 5: gonna do that much damage against Yamamoto?
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 5: Randy Vasquez is pitching for San Diego and he's just
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 5: falling off again. He's not good, dude. I've been saying that,
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 5: you know, looking at his numbers throughout his career, like
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 5: his whip was always too high. This year, I tried
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 5: to back him a few times, and I think we
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 5: did get at least one or two wins out of that,
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 5: but his whip was better and now it's not. So
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 5: I'm like, okay, you know, the advanced analytics guy's got
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 5: this right.
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 3: Vazquez isn't good.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 5: He's got a four point one seven ERA, which looks
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 5: all right, but his one point four whip is not good.
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 3: Somehow.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 5: He's been really bad at home four point nine to
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 5: nine Homie ra even though this is a pitcher friendly park,
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 5: he doesn't pitch well at home.
• 1:07:58
  Speaker 3: He's been not very good recently.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 5: He's failed to make it five innings in two of
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 5: his last four outings, and he was mostly facing some
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 5: kind of weak offenses here too. So he got lit
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 5: up in Texas last time out, and I think we
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 5: lost an under in that game.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 3: So not good. Not good.
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 5: Not a good sign that he did that poorly in
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 5: Texas where basically nobody scores in Texas. He's got a
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 5: bad hit rate. His hit rate is well above his
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 5: amount of innings pitch. His walk rate is not terrific,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 5: strike got rate really low.
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 3: He's a fly ball pitcher two. I don't know.
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 5: There's not really a lot to like here with Vasquez.
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the Dodgers are a little bit weird.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 5: In forty five at bats, he's allowed a pretty low
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 5: to forty four average, but they've hit him for power
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 5: eight thirty eight ohps is pretty high. Six to five
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 5: strike out walker, five to six strike out walk ratio,
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 5: my mistake, that's not really good either.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 3: So I think Vazquez is.
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 5: Probably gonna get hit around a bit here. I actually
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 5: think it over kind of makes sense in this game
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 5: a lot. I don't know if you really want to
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 5: try to fade Ya'm a moto, but the over could
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 5: happen anyway with how good the Dodgers are offensively on
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 5: the road, usually sixty seven percent of tickets ninety two
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 5: percent of the cash on the over here totals at
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 5: eight ninety three percent of tickets, ninety five percent of
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 5: the cash on the Dodgers at minus two hundred. You
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 5: can't really lay minus two hundred on the road with
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 5: the Dodgers man, if you really wanted to go like
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 5: run line with it, I guess you could because I
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 5: do think they will bounce back. But San Diego has
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 5: a better bullpen too, but that might not really help
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 5: if Vazqz sucks and he's out of the game early.
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 5: Maybe the best way to play this is to go
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 5: Dodgers over their team total. You know, I think that
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 5: might be the way to go here, just expecting the
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 5: Dodgers bounce back. Yamamoto I think has kind of a
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 5: wide possibility here because he doesn't have good matchup numbers,
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 5: but he is a good pitcher, so I think he
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 5: could do anything from good to bad here. So I
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 5: think over Dodgers team total probably makes the most sense there.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 5: You're gonna need him to get probably six runs though,
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 5: to get over that thing, So I don't know if
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 5: I really want to do that, but you'll get all
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 5: nine at bats against them. Well, I mean, revenge isn't
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 5: exactly a thing like I mean, it's more the team
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 5: is just gonna be more focused and make adjustments off
• 1:10:16
  Speaker 5: of it. San Diego is not gonna overlook the Dodgers either.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 5: It's just that the Dodgers are the better team when
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 5: you get the better team off a loss like that,
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 5: usually they do play well. Atlanta at San Francisco. Atlanta
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 5: won the game yesterday, not too surprising there, it was
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 5: three to one. It was another low scoring San Francisco game.
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 5: As I keep saying, San Francisco, their offense is not good. Dude,
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 5: don't let those huge offensive numbers they put up in
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 5: those three games lie to you, because they are not good.
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 5: San Francisco used three relief pitchers yesterday Atlanta used four,
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 5: but they're relatively rested in the bullpen department, though I
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 5: think they did have to use some of their better relievers.
• 1:10:57
  Speaker 5: But they have a deep bullpend ther the numberumber one
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 5: bullpen in baseball, and whip Andy Ray by quite a bit.
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 3: San Francisco has not been very good.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 5: Twenty fourth kind of surprises me because one one thing
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 5: they actually did do well last year was pitch out
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 5: of a bullpen, and that has not been the case
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 5: this year. Hitting wise, the Braves have fallen off a
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 5: little bit. They're eleventh now, although they do hit better
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 5: on the road, and San Francisco's twelfth, but I don't
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 5: buy it. I think San Francisco is a bottom ten offense.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 3: They suck. Atlanta is the better offense.
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 5: However, Atlanta probably does not have the starting pitching edge
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 5: heear With Bryce Elder pitching, he still has good numbers
• 1:11:34
  Speaker 5: on the season three point seven to one ERA, one
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 5: point two to one WHIP. He's not as good on
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 5: the road though, four point four to one Roadie RA
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 5: and his last two starts have been horrible, absolutely horrible.
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 5: He got wrecked by the Mets, which is not a
• 1:11:48
  Speaker 5: good sign, and then that carried over into a start
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 5: against Milwaukee.
• 1:11:51
  Speaker 3: He's given up twenty two hits.
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 5: In his last ten innings, dude, on top of fourteen
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 5: runs allowed.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 3: Is that good? Yeah?
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: No?
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 5: Oh, Elder is getting absolutely massacred it right now.
• 1:12:03
  Speaker 3: So there's no way that I could back Elder here.
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 5: Even though his numbers are fine ish on the season,
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 5: his hit rate is still good, his walk rate's still
• 1:12:10
  Speaker 5: pretty good, strike got rate is low, but he's just
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 5: getting absolutely hit around, dude. He's putting pitches over the plate,
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 5: not fooling anybody. Yeah, he's not a good form here,
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 5: and San Francisco actually does hit him well, even though
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 5: their offense is putrid. They have a three thirty three
• 1:12:26
  Speaker 5: average nine to sixty eight ops against him in forty
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 5: eight at bats nine to four strike got walk ratio.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 5: So Elder does not do well against these guys. I
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 5: don't think he's gonna pitch well here. Logan Webb is
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 5: pitching for the Giants, and you know, I think he's
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 5: the better of these two pitchers. Webb has been in
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 5: way better for him than Elder recently. Web has completely
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 5: turned it around after he wasn't that good or early
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 5: in the season. He actually got injured as well, but
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 5: he's been really good over his last few starts.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 3: He's got his ERA down to.
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 5: Three point three five one point one to two whip
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 5: and we know the Web is basic been the most
• 1:13:00
  Speaker 5: steady pitcher in the Giants rotation for the last few
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 5: years two point or excuse me, three point nine two
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 5: ERA at home. He is usually better at home, though
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 5: like last year he was better at home, so I'm
• 1:13:10
  Speaker 5: not too concerned by his HOLEYRA being a little bit higher.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 5: He's got eight innings each in his last three starts,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 5: so yeah, I know his pitch count is getting up there.
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 3: But he's a grinder, dude.
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 5: I call him the grinder because he's known for going
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 5: deep into all these starts, so he's kind of used
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 5: to that sort of thing, so that doesn't worry me
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 5: that much. He's been really good this month. He's allowed
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 5: three runs in thirty one innings, three urn runs sorry,
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 5: one unnern run in there, eighteen hits allowed, twenty three strikeouts,
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 5: two walks. Yeah, those are some pretty good numbers here,
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 5: and he faced Milwaukee, Washington, the Cubs. I mean, he's
• 1:13:47
  Speaker 5: not getting like easy offenses here either. His numbers against
• 1:13:51
  Speaker 5: the Braves though not very good and one hundred nineteen
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 5: at bats, three forty five average, eight thirty one ops
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 5: twenty four to three.
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 3: I got walk ratio that's not good.
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 5: So I probably do like San Francisco here, but I
• 1:14:07
  Speaker 5: would do it first five because the Braves bullpen is
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 5: way better. But you're laying minus one thirty something with
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 5: San Francisco here if you do want them, if you
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 5: go first five, you're probably looking at an even bigger
• 1:14:19
  Speaker 5: price tag on them, maybe like minus won forty something.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 3: That's still the way.
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 5: I would probably go with San Francisco first five money line,
• 1:14:27
  Speaker 5: but Atlanta's getting the money fifty three percent of tickets
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 5: eighty six percent of the cash on them. I don't
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 5: like that, Like Atlanta looks way too easy. It looks
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 5: way too easy to play the Braves, Like, how are
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 5: you getting the Braves as an underdog here against a
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 5: team of the way worse record, you know what I mean?
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 5: So that would concern me with the Braves, it looks
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 5: way too easy to play them. Plus Elder not good,
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 5: you know. I mean, the better way to play this
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 5: game is maybe to just play it over. Both starting
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 5: pitchers have bad matchup numbers. It's possible they both struggle here.
• 1:14:58
  Speaker 5: Sixty eight percent of tickets, ninety three percent of the
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 5: cash on the over, the totals at eight, it's kind
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 5: of a reasonable total here.
• 1:15:05
  Speaker 3: Seven and a half is out there too.
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 5: But the osmakers are telling you they think it's actually
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 5: gonna be a lower scoring game. But when you dig
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 5: into the matchup numbers, and Elder has just been a
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 5: horrific form recently, I don't know, Man, I mean, an
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 5: over could happen here, although again Web, I mean, I
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 5: don't really want to fade Web though, that's the thing.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 5: He's been awesome recently. Why are you a fan of
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 5: the Giants pitchers? They've mostly been horrible except for Web,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 5: I mean, their bullpen has been awful. Every one of
• 1:15:34
  Speaker 5: their starters besides Web has been pretty atrocious. I don't
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 5: know what there is to like about that. The A's
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 5: and Anaheim. I am not liking this at all.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 3: I don't even want to talk about that shit.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 5: Yesterday, it was looking like we're definitely gonna get that
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 5: one right when it's one nothing going into the fifth inning,
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 5: and then oh, you're gonna have ten runs put up
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 5: on the board in that one inning alone, or what no,
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 5: nine runs I guess whatever.
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 3: It was.
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 5: Nine out of the twelve runs in the game came
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 5: home literally in the fifth inning. So that's really fucking helpful.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 5: If it was the sixth inning, we would have won.
• 1:16:08
  Speaker 5: Thanks a lot, guys. Yeah, so A's won the game
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 5: nine to three yesterday. I mean the A's are the
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 5: better team though, bullpen wise, neither bullpen is good. Anaheim
• 1:16:21
  Speaker 5: used three relief pitchers yesterday. The A's used three as well.
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 5: Neither bullpen is good. The A's are twenty third, the
• 1:16:30
  Speaker 5: Angels are twenty fifth. I would fade both bullpens here
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 5: or avoid them. A's are number four in offense, the
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 5: Angels are seventeenth. I mean, it does kind of seem
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 5: like it's a series that does make for more overs.
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 5: I don't think i'd want to do that here though.
• 1:16:46
  Speaker 5: I mean, Jack Perkins is pitching for the A's. He's
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 5: very unpredictable to me. He's not that young, but he's
• 1:16:54
  Speaker 5: kind of new to major league baseball because I think
• 1:16:56
  Speaker 5: the start to his career got delayed. He's got some talent,
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 5: he's got some strikeout ability, but he hasn't really been
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 5: that good. Six point two six ERA one point three
• 1:17:05
  Speaker 5: to seven whip does indicate that his ERA should be
• 1:17:08
  Speaker 5: better than six point two six, though his ERA is
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 5: basically the same home and away, but again, he also
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 5: has to pitch in that horrible as ballpark, so that
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 5: doesn't help him.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 3: Really.
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 5: His overall numbers here, like I said, he has a
• 1:17:21
  Speaker 5: really good strikeout rate, his strike out rates really high,
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 5: his walk rate is only slightly high really, and his
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 5: hit rate is not too bad. So looking at, you know,
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 5: digging into these numbers here, he's not as bad as
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 5: his era makes it look. He was mostly pitching out
• 1:17:36
  Speaker 5: of the bullpen. He's been making kind of more full
• 1:17:39
  Speaker 5: starts recently, but hasn't really been that good. And he
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 5: literally just faced Anaheim. In his last outing, he gave
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 5: up four runs of five innings, but he did only
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 5: give up four hits and have eight strikeouts and two walks,
• 1:17:51
  Speaker 5: so that was better than it looked basically. And he's
• 1:17:55
  Speaker 5: faced some difficult offenses here this month, so I think
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 5: maybe he's a bit better. He's definitely better than his
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 5: era would suggest. His numbers against Anaheim are also actually good,
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 5: even though that last start didn't look that good. Thirty
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 5: three at bats, eleven strikeouts, two walks, one two average,
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 5: five sixty four ops. That's pretty good. And he's going
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 5: up against Reed Debt Merse, who you know. I am
• 1:18:19
  Speaker 5: a fan of Debt mers. I think he's good three
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 5: point nine three eray, his whip is quite good at
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 5: one point oh five. He's better on the road, but
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 5: he's still I don't know. I mean at home four
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 5: point five home e RA, which is where he is today.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 5: That's not great. But digging into his numbers, these numbers
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 5: are not bad at all at home. His opponent batting
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 5: average at home is two hundred, so I think it's
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 5: a little bit misleading that his ERA is four.
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 3: Point five at home.
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 5: He did just face the A's on the road. He
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 5: went six innings, he gave up five runs on six hits.
• 1:18:52
  Speaker 5: He was two walk heavy, though. He gave up four
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 5: walks in that one, but he is not a guy
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 5: that walks that many guys, so I'm really gonna give
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 5: him a pass for that. He's been pretty good recently otherwise,
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 5: and his overall numbers this season low hit rate, low
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 5: walk rate, high strikeout rate, everything that you.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 3: Like to see. I like det Murse. I think he's good.
• 1:19:11
  Speaker 5: His numbers against the A's are pretty good in sixty
• 1:19:13
  Speaker 5: six at bats to forty two average, six forty three
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 5: oh ps, although twenty to eight strike out walk ratio
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 5: is not that good, but the rest of those numbers
• 1:19:21
  Speaker 5: are good. This game, dude, I mean, I think it
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 5: kind of looks like a first five under again here.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 5: I mean it should have been for us yesterday. I
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 5: don't want to do it in this one. I think
• 1:19:34
  Speaker 5: Perkins is definitely a big mystery here. But the money
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 5: is actually back in the under this time, in this game,
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 5: in the full game, at eight and a half, fifty
• 1:19:43
  Speaker 5: five percent of tickets on the over fifty five percent
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 5: of the cash on the under, I would obviously not
• 1:19:48
  Speaker 5: go full game. I would go first five under if
• 1:19:50
  Speaker 5: I was gonna go under here. There's no way you
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 5: can play a full game with these bullpens. And Anaheim
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 5: is getting the money and I don't disagree with that
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 5: of fifty to fifty on the two, I get seventy
• 1:20:00
  Speaker 5: five percent of the cash on Anaheim at about minus
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 5: one fourteen here, But again I would only do.
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 3: It first five.
• 1:20:06
  Speaker 5: I do not want these bullpens at all, So I
• 1:20:08
  Speaker 5: think anaheim first five money line is probably not too expensive,
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 5: but I think they do have the better starter there.
• 1:20:14
  Speaker 5: He's definitely more established, So that's probably Those are my
• 1:20:18
  Speaker 5: opinions on that game, all right, WNBA, and then I'll.
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 3: Get out of here.
• 1:20:24
  Speaker 5: We have three games here, Phoenix in Toronto on CBS
• 1:20:27
  Speaker 5: and Paramount Plus.
• 1:20:29
  Speaker 3: Toronto is coming.
• 1:20:30
  Speaker 5: Off a one twenty five to ninety seven win over
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 5: LA in a return home spot. How do you score
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 5: one hundred and twenty five points at a WNBA game.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 3: I have absolutely no idea.
• 1:20:42
  Speaker 5: And when a team does that, you know I want
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 5: to look to fade them in their next game because
• 1:20:45
  Speaker 5: they're not gonna put up one hundred and twenty five points.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 3: Ever.
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 5: Again, on the season, it's not going to happen. I mean,
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 5: that's just such a ridiculous outlier. Like I did not
• 1:20:54
  Speaker 5: even look at the box score, but to see that,
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 5: it's just insane. You know, there were some outliers in
• 1:20:58
  Speaker 5: that game Toronto. It was a return home spot too,
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 5: which is not even a good spot. I don't know
• 1:21:04
  Speaker 5: how they did that. They got Dallas next and then
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 5: Golden State. They might look ahead to that because Phoenix
• 1:21:09
  Speaker 5: has not been playing well, so they might overlook Phoenix
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 5: coming off of a ridiculous scoring effort, and then they
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 5: got bigger games on deck. Although it's after a break,
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 5: we have the the Cup break is happening after this,
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 5: so Tuesday is gonna be the Cup final when we
• 1:21:23
  Speaker 5: get like a weak break, which is I don't have
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 5: to handicap WNBA for a while. And after starting five
• 1:21:28
  Speaker 5: and oh in the WNBA and then taking two bullshit
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 5: losses in the WNBA, we're now six and five on
• 1:21:35
  Speaker 5: the show in WNBA, which really fucking pisses me off.
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 3: Two or three of those should have been wins.
• 1:21:41
  Speaker 5: It probably should have been a win last night, but
• 1:21:43
  Speaker 5: a couple of the other ones that Connecticut won back
• 1:21:46
  Speaker 5: you know, a month ago or whatever.
• 1:21:47
  Speaker 3: It was some unbelievable.
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 5: Bullshit this game though, if you couldn't tell, I'm gonna
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 5: lean to Phoenix here. But the problem is Phoenix is
• 1:21:57
  Speaker 5: coming off a good game here too. They just upset
• 1:21:59
  Speaker 5: Indiana on the road, so they could be in a
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 5: letdown spot here, not really a big game on deck.
• 1:22:05
  Speaker 3: I think Toronto's spot.
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 5: Is a little bit worse here. Were also looking at
• 1:22:09
  Speaker 5: this is a revenge game. I don't know how much
• 1:22:12
  Speaker 5: that really matters. But Phoenix did lose at home by
• 1:22:15
  Speaker 5: eight to Toronto in mid May, so they may have
• 1:22:18
  Speaker 5: some adjustments to make her I just think that will
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 5: make Toronto maybe overlook them a little bit more. But
• 1:22:23
  Speaker 5: I don't want I really don't want Phoenix off a
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 5: nice upset win at Indiana either though.
• 1:22:29
  Speaker 3: Plus you know that was that.
• 1:22:30
  Speaker 5: Game where Carter or whatever shoved Clark in the neck
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 5: because everybody just assaults Clark on the court.
• 1:22:37
  Speaker 3: So she's suspended. She's not playing in this game.
• 1:22:40
  Speaker 5: I think her name is Carter right, whatever her name is,
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 5: I don't know how good she even is, but she
• 1:22:44
  Speaker 5: suspended in this game. How will Phoenix react to that?
• 1:22:47
  Speaker 3: I don't know.
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 5: I don't treat it the same way as the injured
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 5: player theory spot though, where like a team is gonna
• 1:22:53
  Speaker 5: step up their game after they have an injured player.
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's gonna be the case with Phoenix,
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 5: but maybe you do get a little bit extra line
• 1:23:00
  Speaker 5: value here. I don't even know how good she is.
• 1:23:02
  Speaker 5: I mean, she's obviously not a good person. The money's
• 1:23:05
  Speaker 5: coming in on Toronto here though, they're up to six
• 1:23:08
  Speaker 5: and a half or five and a half here. I
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 5: think some of that is because of the suspension though,
• 1:23:12
  Speaker 5: you know, like that's the only reason why the line
• 1:23:15
  Speaker 5: would have moved up on Toronto, like that, sixty tickets
• 1:23:18
  Speaker 5: ninety percent of the cash on Toronto. But no, I
• 1:23:20
  Speaker 5: would lean to taking the points with Phoenix slightly.
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 3: But I don't like either team in that game.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 5: LA at Indiana also on CBS Paramount Plus.
• 1:23:30
  Speaker 3: That first game is in the afternoon. This game is
• 1:23:32
  Speaker 3: at night.
• 1:23:33
  Speaker 5: Indiana coming off that bad loss at home and Caitlyn
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 5: Clark also got hurt.
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 3: A lot of.
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 5: WNBA personalities are saying that WNBA needs to do a
• 1:23:43
  Speaker 5: better job at protecting their players in reference to Clark.
• 1:23:47
  Speaker 3: But she's actually injured now with a.
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 5: Back injury, so we do have an injured player at
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 5: theory spot with Indiana here and they're staying at home
• 1:23:53
  Speaker 5: and they're coming off a loss as a favorite, and
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 5: you can kind of explain what happened there because Indiana
• 1:23:59
  Speaker 5: had beaten Phoenix the game before that, so it was
• 1:24:02
  Speaker 5: a zigzag spot. Basically, Phoenix could make the adjustments there.
• 1:24:05
  Speaker 5: I think I gave out a lean on Phoenix there.
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 5: So this looks like a positive spot for Indiana here
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 5: because they're coming up a loss as a favorite at home,
• 1:24:14
  Speaker 5: and usually when that happens, the team will bounce back,
• 1:24:16
  Speaker 5: especially when you can explain it.
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 3: It's an injured player theory spots.
• 1:24:20
  Speaker 5: You're gonna get value probably on Indiana here, right, because
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 5: you know how that works. When your star player goes down,
• 1:24:26
  Speaker 5: the line over adjusts. Yeah, sorry, Alyssa Thomas, whatever the fuck.
• 1:24:31
  Speaker 3: Her name is.
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 5: The line will over adjust to a star player like
• 1:24:36
  Speaker 5: Caitlin Clark being out, so you can get more value
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 5: on that team, and that team will usually step up
• 1:24:41
  Speaker 5: their game. You know, I think you're gonna see Indiana
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 5: come out with effort right because they want to kind
• 1:24:45
  Speaker 5: of play for Clark. You would have to imagine after
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 5: what happened during the last game, and plus her being injured,
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 5: they know they have to play hard to accommodate for that.
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 5: LA is still without their best player Plumb. She's been
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 5: out for a while, so she's not playing here. However,
• 1:25:00
  Speaker 5: for LA did just come off that embarrassing loss where
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 5: Maybury on Toronto set a WNBA record or tied.
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 3: It with fifty three points in that game.
• 1:25:11
  Speaker 5: That was an embarrassing loss for LA there, and you
• 1:25:14
  Speaker 5: can kind of explain that because LA had just pulled
• 1:25:17
  Speaker 5: off a nice win over New York, a win from
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 5: me on.
• 1:25:19
  Speaker 3: The show, by the way.
• 1:25:21
  Speaker 5: LA had just pulled off that win over New York,
• 1:25:24
  Speaker 5: So I think LA was in a bad spot after that,
• 1:25:27
  Speaker 5: probably kind of a sandwich spot to looking ahead to this.
• 1:25:30
  Speaker 5: So I don't really want to lay the points with
• 1:25:32
  Speaker 5: Indiana here just because LA is coming off an embarrassing loss.
• 1:25:36
  Speaker 3: However, LA is not.
• 1:25:38
  Speaker 5: A good defensive team, man, They're not. And with their
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 5: best score Plumb on the bench here or sorry she's injured,
• 1:25:47
  Speaker 5: you know, LA might not be able to keep up
• 1:25:50
  Speaker 5: with Indiana's amount of scoring here. Indiana is still gonna
• 1:25:53
  Speaker 5: score without Caitlin Clark, you know, against this LA defense.
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 5: So I still like Indiana here. The money does agree
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 5: with that. When at minus six and a half fifty
• 1:26:02
  Speaker 5: to fifty on the tickets sixty five percent of the
• 1:26:04
  Speaker 5: cash on Indiana, I would lean to Indiana there, and
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 5: then we have Atlanta in Seattle. Atlanta has having a
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 5: plan a back to back like you don't usually see
• 1:26:13
  Speaker 5: this in the WNBA. Man, Atlanta's playing a back to
• 1:26:16
  Speaker 5: back in a third game in four days, though the
• 1:26:18
  Speaker 5: first two were both in the same city at Golden State.
• 1:26:22
  Speaker 5: But I don't know why the league is doing this, dude,
• 1:26:24
  Speaker 5: And I'm still pissed. They should have won that game
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 5: last night. I'm fucking pissed about that. Now they're going
• 1:26:30
  Speaker 5: to Seattle. They might not pay attention to Seattle, dude.
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 5: I know Atlanta's lost two games in a row, but
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 5: that was a tough game last night against Golden State,
• 1:26:37
  Speaker 5: and now no turnaround time. They have to play a
• 1:26:40
  Speaker 5: third game in four days. They're playing back to back,
• 1:26:43
  Speaker 5: playing a team that sucks in Seattle, and then they
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 5: have the break after this. I don't see them paying
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 5: attention to Seattle here.
• 1:26:49
  Speaker 3: Man. Seattle's been playing a little bit better recently.
• 1:26:53
  Speaker 5: I think they've won two games. I know they won
• 1:26:55
  Speaker 5: one game recently. They almost beat Dallas the game before that.
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 5: But my problem was, see, is they just pulled off
• 1:27:01
  Speaker 5: a huge upset against New York, so and I think
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 5: they probably caught New York in a decent spot too,
• 1:27:06
  Speaker 5: because New York's been playing all these bigger games surrounding
• 1:27:09
  Speaker 5: that game.
• 1:27:11
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna lean to.
• 1:27:12
  Speaker 5: Seattle here just because they are staying at home and
• 1:27:14
  Speaker 5: they do have rest, and they probably will show up
• 1:27:16
  Speaker 5: still for a game against Atlanta.
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 3: But I don't love that They're coming off.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 5: An upset of New York and they only have one
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 5: day off between the tool though they hadn't played since
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 5: Monday prior to that, so they are still the more
• 1:27:27
  Speaker 5: rested team here, but they're coming off two big performances.
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 5: One good thing though, is they ended along losing streak,
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 5: so they had lost whatever that was, they'd lost eleven
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 5: games in a row, and they finally ended that losing streak.
• 1:27:41
  Speaker 5: So a lot of times when a team ends a
• 1:27:42
  Speaker 5: losing streak, they will carry that momentum forward and play better.
• 1:27:46
  Speaker 5: So I lean Seattle here. The money does agree with that.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 5: Seventy ticket seventy nine percent of the cash on Seattle,
• 1:27:53
  Speaker 5: I should probably be making some of these plays, because
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 5: my leans in the WNBA have been probably better than
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 5: my plays, even though started off five and oh, trying
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 5: to be selective here, man, I think the spots that
• 1:28:04
  Speaker 5: I'm picking are good.
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 3: I know what I'm doing.
• 1:28:07
  Speaker 5: Man, Atlanta's laying seven and a half here now, so
• 1:28:10
  Speaker 5: the line's gone down from the opener. So the money
• 1:28:13
  Speaker 5: definitely is playing Seattle here. It looks like you can
• 1:28:15
  Speaker 5: get eight on this. That's still what I would do.
• 1:28:17
  Speaker 5: I would take the eight points with Seattle, all right,
• 1:28:21
  Speaker 5: and then we have World Cup here. I think if
• 1:28:25
  Speaker 5: I was gonna I'm not gonna play any World Cup today.
• 1:28:27
  Speaker 5: I think if I was gonna play any World Cup,
• 1:28:28
  Speaker 5: I'm skipping two days in a row. If I was
• 1:28:30
  Speaker 5: gonna play any World Cup game today, I was looking
• 1:28:33
  Speaker 5: at playing Croatia here in the first.
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 3: Game up, which is at five pm.
• 1:28:37
  Speaker 5: All these games are on the Fox networks, you know
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 5: how to find if Fox, Fox Sports won, Fox won
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 5: Online whatever, and then the Spanish channels Telemundo and Universe
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 5: if you want to hear go.
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 3: This game is in Philadelphia.
• 1:28:54
  Speaker 5: I believe Ghana is coming in from playing in Foxborough.
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 5: I believe against Englandtia is coming in from Toronto. I
• 1:29:03
  Speaker 5: want to say I forget, but the reason why I
• 1:29:07
  Speaker 5: was leaning Croatia here is because Croatia is coming off
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 5: a bad performance. They only beat Panama one to nothing.
• 1:29:13
  Speaker 5: They at least got the win there. Croatia definitely needed
• 1:29:16
  Speaker 5: the win there to get the three points.
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 3: Panamized not very good.
• 1:29:20
  Speaker 5: Croatia did outplay them more than it looks on the
• 1:29:23
  Speaker 5: scoreboard though, if you dig into that matchup, like Croatia
• 1:29:26
  Speaker 5: should have won that game more easily. So they're coming
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 5: off a very unimpressive outing there, whereas Ghana is coming
• 1:29:31
  Speaker 5: off a very impressive showing where they had a.
• 1:29:34
  Speaker 3: Draw nil nil draw with England.
• 1:29:38
  Speaker 5: So Ghana's gonna get more credit for that, in my opinion,
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 5: coming off that huge performance against England where they were
• 1:29:44
  Speaker 5: a huge underdog.
• 1:29:45
  Speaker 3: I mean the England was like minus five hundred there.
• 1:29:49
  Speaker 5: So for those reasons, just based on what the last
• 1:29:51
  Speaker 5: matchup looked like, I lean Croatia here. Croatia does have
• 1:29:55
  Speaker 5: more World Cup experience as well, so you're looking at
• 1:29:58
  Speaker 5: the more experienced team in a game that does somewhat
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 5: matter here.
• 1:30:02
  Speaker 3: If you look at what's going on in this.
• 1:30:05
  Speaker 5: In this group group l here, Croatia needs the game
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 5: more like Ghana. They could pick up no points here
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 5: and still advance, I think, because they have four points already,
• 1:30:15
  Speaker 5: So I think if Ghana winds up in third place,
• 1:30:17
  Speaker 5: they're still gonna advance here.
• 1:30:20
  Speaker 3: So Croatia they need it to.
• 1:30:22
  Speaker 5: Croatia is sitting in a negative goal differential with three points.
• 1:30:26
  Speaker 5: I don't think that's gonna be enough. Croatian needs to
• 1:30:28
  Speaker 5: get at least a point out of this. However, the
• 1:30:33
  Speaker 5: problem with it, one of the reasons why I'm gonna
• 1:30:35
  Speaker 5: like kind of dial it back a little bit on
• 1:30:37
  Speaker 5: Croatia here is these teams could play to a draw
• 1:30:40
  Speaker 5: and they'd both advance, you know what I mean. Like
• 1:30:43
  Speaker 5: if you're gonna get Croatia with four points Ghana with five,
• 1:30:47
  Speaker 5: If that happens, they're both gonna advance because Ghana's gonna
• 1:30:49
  Speaker 5: wind up in second place in the group. Croatia if
• 1:30:52
  Speaker 5: they get four points, I think they're gonna advance, uh
• 1:30:55
  Speaker 5: from the third place spot. So these teams could possibly
• 1:30:59
  Speaker 5: play this a little bit closer to the vest here.
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 5: So that worries me a little bit, But I like
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 5: Croatia and I almost put it on my card there. However,
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 5: I will tell you that I looked at some of
• 1:31:08
  Speaker 5: the market numbers and the market is not agreeing with it.
• 1:31:11
  Speaker 5: The market likes Ghana in that game, so I don't
• 1:31:14
  Speaker 5: know about that. But based on the previous matchup, based
• 1:31:18
  Speaker 5: on the previous games those teams played there and by
• 1:31:20
  Speaker 5: the way, England did outplay Ghana and in that nil
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 5: nil draw, England was clearly the better team statistically in
• 1:31:27
  Speaker 5: that one. So based off of all that, plus the
• 1:31:30
  Speaker 5: fact that Croatia is a point behind and they need
• 1:31:32
  Speaker 5: this more, I'm leaning Croatia there. But again there is
• 1:31:36
  Speaker 5: the concern that if you'd play Croatia on the money line,
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 5: on the three way line and then a draw would
• 1:31:41
  Speaker 5: lose your bet, And there is a decent chance of
• 1:31:44
  Speaker 5: a draw in that match in my opinion. Panama and England.
• 1:31:49
  Speaker 5: I mean, this game is in East ruther for New Jersey.
• 1:31:51
  Speaker 5: England is minus six hundred. England should win this one.
• 1:31:55
  Speaker 5: Panama is not good. I believe Panama has not even
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 5: scored a goal yet, although they might score here because
• 1:32:02
  Speaker 5: the other teams that hadn't scored a goal into their
• 1:32:04
  Speaker 5: last match were Haiti, Turkey and I forget there was
• 1:32:09
  Speaker 5: one other one and they all three of them scored
• 1:32:12
  Speaker 5: a goal in their last match, so Panama might finally
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 5: do it.
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 3: I think Panama will.
• 1:32:17
  Speaker 5: Actually be motivated just for that reason, because they haven't
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 5: scored a goal yet in the World Cup, so I
• 1:32:22
  Speaker 5: think they're gonna show up just to try to score
• 1:32:24
  Speaker 5: a goal here. And plus it's they're eliminated, I'm pretty sure,
• 1:32:27
  Speaker 5: so it's their last stand here, basically their last game
• 1:32:31
  Speaker 5: in the World Cup. They get to play England, so
• 1:32:33
  Speaker 5: I think Panama will show up. Although Panama, I think
• 1:32:37
  Speaker 5: they're coming from Toronto right against Croatia, so Panama a
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 5: little bit lesser of a travel a little bit worse
• 1:32:44
  Speaker 5: of a travel spot. They're going to East Rutherford, New
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 5: Jersey here for this one where the New York football
• 1:32:50
  Speaker 5: teams play. England is coming in from Foxboro, so it's
• 1:32:53
  Speaker 5: a little bit easier for them.
• 1:32:57
  Speaker 3: England.
• 1:32:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they should win, and the totals high. I mean,
• 1:33:02
  Speaker 5: I don't think i'd want to go with England over
• 1:33:03
  Speaker 5: their team total though, because I don't know if they
• 1:33:05
  Speaker 5: really need gold differential here.
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 3: Let me say England, Well, I don't know, maybe they do.
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 5: I mean they're only plus two here there is a
• 1:33:13
  Speaker 5: chance they went up tied with Ghana. I mean, they
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 5: probably they want to make sure they advance England. I mean,
• 1:33:18
  Speaker 5: they're going to advance even if they lose this game,
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 5: which isn't gonna happen. They'd still advance with four points though,
• 1:33:26
  Speaker 5: So I don't know about England, you know, their goal
• 1:33:29
  Speaker 5: differential here or you know, I probably would not really
• 1:33:32
  Speaker 5: prefer England over their team total, though I was right
• 1:33:35
  Speaker 5: about Belgium over their team total yesterday. And my other
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 5: play that I liked yesterday was the draw no bet
• 1:33:41
  Speaker 5: on Saudi Arabia, So that would have been a push
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 5: because the draw happened, so that would have been a
• 1:33:48
  Speaker 5: no bet, as the name of that bet suggests. Yeah,
• 1:33:52
  Speaker 5: I mean England has some motivation here, but not a ton,
• 1:33:55
  Speaker 5: like they really just need to win this game. And
• 1:33:57
  Speaker 5: England they're gonna deepfense. I don't know their offense to me,
• 1:34:01
  Speaker 5: they seem a little bit questionable, dude, and just their
• 1:34:03
  Speaker 5: track record in the World Cup is not really that good.
• 1:34:06
  Speaker 3: So I don't know.
• 1:34:07
  Speaker 5: They should win obviously against an inferior opponent, but I'm
• 1:34:10
  Speaker 5: not gonna do anything with that game. I mean, yeah,
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 5: I don't think I have too much else to say.
• 1:34:16
  Speaker 5: I mean, yeah, I don't think there's a whole lot
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 5: else there. Colombia and Portugal in a different group here,
• 1:34:22
  Speaker 5: which is in Miami.
• 1:34:23
  Speaker 3: I think.
• 1:34:25
  Speaker 5: One of these teams, Colombia, I think is coming up
• 1:34:27
  Speaker 5: from Mexico. I want to say for this in Portugal,
• 1:34:30
  Speaker 5: I think played in either Miami or Atlanta in their
• 1:34:33
  Speaker 5: last game, So I think the sched the travel spot
• 1:34:36
  Speaker 5: is a little better for Portugal. Portugal is actually behind
• 1:34:39
  Speaker 5: Colombia here in Group K. Portugal was supposed to win
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 5: this group, but Colombia is not bad. And Colombia's won
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 5: both of their matches so far, which, yeah, I.
• 1:34:49
  Speaker 3: Believe they beat.
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 5: Yeah, they beat these two lesser teams though, I mean,
• 1:34:54
  Speaker 5: it's not that surprising, right They beat Congo Dominican Republic
• 1:34:57
  Speaker 5: of Congo, a democratic Republican Dominica Public of Congo.
• 1:35:01
  Speaker 3: Yes, that's my Florida, Illinois.
• 1:35:04
  Speaker 5: No Democratic Republic of Congo, and who's Bekistan. Whereas Portugal
• 1:35:09
  Speaker 5: had that weird draw against Democratic Republic of Congo. People
• 1:35:14
  Speaker 5: might knock Portugal a little bit for that, but Portugal
• 1:35:16
  Speaker 5: is still the better team here if we're looking at
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 5: the standings. Both teams are going to advance anyway, you know,
• 1:35:23
  Speaker 5: I mean, they're gonna be the top two teams in
• 1:35:25
  Speaker 5: this group, although Portugal, yeah, Portugal, I mean, even if
• 1:35:28
  Speaker 5: they wind up in a tie, because Congo dr could
• 1:35:31
  Speaker 5: win today and Portugal could potentially lose to Columbia here,
• 1:35:35
  Speaker 5: and if that happens, Portugal is still likely to have
• 1:35:38
  Speaker 5: the tiebreaker over Congo because they had a draw, So
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 5: then the tiebreaker would then go to gold differential and
• 1:35:44
  Speaker 5: Portugal will still have the goal differential over Congo. So basically,
• 1:35:49
  Speaker 5: these teams have already secured the top two spots here.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 5: So that's kind of the issue that I have with Portugal.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 5: They're minus one oh five on the three way line.
• 1:35:57
  Speaker 5: But these teams might still kind of be okay with
• 1:35:59
  Speaker 5: the awe here, you know what I mean, because if
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 5: these teams both draw, they're both going to advance if
• 1:36:04
  Speaker 5: they both draw, so they don't really need a whole
• 1:36:07
  Speaker 5: lot out of this game. So we'll see what happens here.
• 1:36:11
  Speaker 5: But Portugal, I know, was kind of like making fun
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 5: of Norway. Norway rested their players yesterday, by the way,
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 5: I forgot to realize that that was a possibility Norway
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 5: basically decided let's rest our players for health reasons. I
• 1:36:24
  Speaker 5: don't know if it was a good idea though, because
• 1:36:26
  Speaker 5: Norway because of that, they wound up getting Ivory Coast
• 1:36:31
  Speaker 5: where they could have gotten Sweden instead.
• 1:36:34
  Speaker 3: I've if I were them, i'd I think I'd rather.
• 1:36:36
  Speaker 5: Play Sweden, even though Sweden's kind of a rival of theirs.
• 1:36:39
  Speaker 5: I think Ivory Coast is better than Sweden, So I
• 1:36:43
  Speaker 5: don't like what well. I don't love that, but I understand,
• 1:36:46
  Speaker 5: like I think the people that are bashing Norway for
• 1:36:48
  Speaker 5: doing that, they just don't get it, man, Like it
• 1:36:51
  Speaker 5: makes sense for Norway to just keep their guys rested,
• 1:36:53
  Speaker 5: you know what I mean. They're trying to win the
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 5: World Cup here, man, you know what I mean, or
• 1:36:57
  Speaker 5: make a run here anyway. I don't know if Portugal
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 5: is going to do that or not. But Ronaldo's kind
• 1:37:02
  Speaker 5: of had some issues here anyway for Portugal, so I
• 1:37:06
  Speaker 5: don't know, man, I don't really like how Portugal's looked
• 1:37:09
  Speaker 5: so far in this tournament, so I don't know. Columbia
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 5: probably will actually have some motivation there in that game,
• 1:37:15
  Speaker 5: just because they're playing against Portugal, so I think they
• 1:37:17
  Speaker 5: might just kind of show up for that reason, although
• 1:37:20
  Speaker 5: they have a little bit less motivation just because they've
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 5: already you know, they're close to winning the group here,
• 1:37:26
  Speaker 5: but maybe they want to prevent Portugal from winning the group.
• 1:37:31
  Speaker 3: Who knows. I don't know how that game is going
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 3: to play out.
• 1:37:33
  Speaker 5: Dominican Republic or I keep saying Dominican Republic DR Congo,
• 1:37:38
  Speaker 5: Democratic Republic of Congo is playing Who's Bekistan?
• 1:37:41
  Speaker 3: Who is one of the worst teams in this entire thing.
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 5: They're not good, which is why Congo is minus one
• 1:37:48
  Speaker 5: fifty here on the three way line in Atlanta. I
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 5: forget where these teams are coming from. I don't remember
• 1:37:55
  Speaker 5: it was Bekistan. I think was in either Atlanta they're
• 1:37:58
  Speaker 5: staying there, were coming from Miami. I forget Congo. I
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 5: think just played in Mexico though, so I think they're
• 1:38:05
  Speaker 5: coming up from that. So the travel spot's a little
• 1:38:08
  Speaker 5: bit worse for Congo here Uzbekistan is already eliminated from
• 1:38:12
  Speaker 5: the World Cup. So they might show up with some
• 1:38:15
  Speaker 5: effort just you know, because they know it's their last
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 5: go around here in the World Cup, or you know,
• 1:38:20
  Speaker 5: I talk about it. They could be in a dream
• 1:38:22
  Speaker 5: crush or spot you never really know. But they weren't
• 1:38:25
  Speaker 5: really expected to do anything in the World Cups, so
• 1:38:28
  Speaker 5: Congo wasn't expected to advance either, and they need points.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 5: Congo needs points to advance it they're gonna need to win.
• 1:38:35
  Speaker 5: A draw is not gonna be enough, So Congo does
• 1:38:38
  Speaker 5: need to win here. They could do it. I mean,
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 5: this is gonna be their weakest opponent they've faced in
• 1:38:45
  Speaker 5: the World Cup so far. But they're also not a
• 1:38:47
  Speaker 5: good team, and I feel like the public is gonna
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 5: be kind of on them because Congo is one of
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 5: those kind of hype teams because they had that draw
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 5: against Portugal.
• 1:38:55
  Speaker 3: You know, sorry, yeah it was it again. I think
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 3: it was against Portugal.
• 1:38:59
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so Congo's got kind of that, you know, they're
• 1:39:02
  Speaker 5: almost like that.
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 3: They're almost like a.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 5: Cape Verde where everybody's like hyping this team up because
• 1:39:08
  Speaker 5: they weren't expected to do that, you know, So I
• 1:39:10
  Speaker 5: worry about it. I mean, Congo probably does win here
• 1:39:13
  Speaker 5: at minus one fifty, but I would not really want
• 1:39:16
  Speaker 5: to bank on it. Algeria and Austria this is really interesting,
• 1:39:21
  Speaker 5: where Austria's plus two to ten and Algeria on the
• 1:39:24
  Speaker 5: three way line is probably also right around plus two
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 5: ten or maybe plus three hundred something.
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 3: The weird thing about this one is the.
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 5: Draw is like plus two thirty here, So the odds
• 1:39:34
  Speaker 5: makers are kind of telling you they think this is
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 5: gonna wind up been a draw, and I think it
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 5: might happen. I think you might want to take a
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 5: shot at the draw here. And the odds makers look
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 5: at the total in this game one and a half.
• 1:39:46
  Speaker 5: So the odds makers are telling you they think this
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 5: is going to be a low scoring game, and I
• 1:39:51
  Speaker 5: think it might be. I think these teams might just
• 1:39:53
  Speaker 5: kind of go through the motions here, and I'm gonna
• 1:39:55
  Speaker 5: explain why that is in a second. Austria just lost
• 1:39:59
  Speaker 5: to Argentina. Excuse me, they're playing Algeria here. Too many
• 1:40:04
  Speaker 5: A nations here, But both Austria and Algeria both already
• 1:40:09
  Speaker 5: got a win against Jordan in this group, so they
• 1:40:12
  Speaker 5: both already have three points here. So you'll see what
• 1:40:16
  Speaker 5: I'm getting at in a minute.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 3: Now.
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 5: These teams, one of them is coming in from California
• 1:40:22
  Speaker 5: and one of them is coming from Texas, and I
• 1:40:25
  Speaker 5: forget which is which. The team coming from Texas does
• 1:40:28
  Speaker 5: have a little bit of a travel edge that would
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 5: be Austria. Algeria's coming from northern California here Austria is
• 1:40:37
  Speaker 5: coming from Texas. Now, the reason why I think this
• 1:40:41
  Speaker 5: is this is going to potentially be a draw is
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 5: look at how this sets up. Argentina has already won
• 1:40:47
  Speaker 5: this group. Argentina already won against Austria and Algeria. So
• 1:40:52
  Speaker 5: Argentina already has the tie breaker against Austria and Algeria here.
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 5: Plus they already have the goal differential too, So are
• 1:41:00
  Speaker 5: Argentina has already one group j Austria and Algeria. They're
• 1:41:05
  Speaker 5: sitting at three points here. They're probably gonna both advance
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 5: if they draw here because they'll both have four points.
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 5: One of them will be the number two team in
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 5: the group.
• 1:41:14
  Speaker 3: Still they'll advance.
• 1:41:15
  Speaker 5: The other one that winds up in numbering in the
• 1:41:17
  Speaker 5: number three spot will have four points and we'll probably
• 1:41:20
  Speaker 5: advance as well.
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 3: So I think a draw is pretty likely here, man.
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 5: So I think you you could take the shot and
• 1:41:28
  Speaker 5: play the draw at like plus two thirty here. That
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 5: might be the way that you want to do it here. Yeah,
• 1:41:36
  Speaker 5: I don't, I don't know, man, I don't know if
• 1:41:37
  Speaker 5: there's maybe a better way to look at that. But yeah,
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 5: I mean, I think maybe taking the shot on the
• 1:41:41
  Speaker 5: draw makes sense because both teams, you know what I mean,
• 1:41:45
  Speaker 5: Like it may be like a gentlemanly agreement here where
• 1:41:48
  Speaker 5: both teams like have an incentive to play to a
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 5: draw here. So you know, I don't think they care
• 1:41:54
  Speaker 5: that much whether they're number two or number three. So
• 1:41:56
  Speaker 5: and then Argentina is a huge favorite against Jordan. Argentina
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 5: is I believe coming in front. No, They're staying in Texas,
• 1:42:05
  Speaker 5: I think, and Jordan's coming in from California.
• 1:42:08
  Speaker 3: Argentina's minus six fifty.
• 1:42:10
  Speaker 5: But I just told you Argentina doesn't need to win here,
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 5: so you know, I mean, they're just way better than Jordan.
• 1:42:16
  Speaker 3: Jordan's eliminated. But maybe Jordan.
• 1:42:18
  Speaker 5: Will get up for this game just because they want
• 1:42:20
  Speaker 5: to try to do something here against a good team
• 1:42:22
  Speaker 5: like Argentina. It's their last World Cup game here. Maybe
• 1:42:26
  Speaker 5: Jordan wants to try to show something here. They're nowhere
• 1:42:30
  Speaker 5: near as good. But Argentina hasn't been that impressive so far.
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 5: They've been impressive on defense, but you know, they haven't
• 1:42:37
  Speaker 5: scored much. So I think maybe what you can do
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 5: here is look at the spread on Jordan here, like
• 1:42:43
  Speaker 5: you could take plus two and a half goals with Jordan.
• 1:42:46
  Speaker 5: You have to lay about minus one fifty for that though,
• 1:42:50
  Speaker 5: but you can play Jordan to come within two goals here. Again,
• 1:42:53
  Speaker 5: Argentina doesn't need this game, so they don't need to
• 1:42:56
  Speaker 5: win by margin or anything like that. So maybe Jordan
• 1:42:59
  Speaker 5: plus two and a half goals that minus won fifty
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 5: is maybe the way to play this one here. Don't
• 1:43:05
  Speaker 5: have a whole lot else to say about that, though, Yeah,
• 1:43:09
  Speaker 5: I think that's gonna do it. Man, Argentina did just
• 1:43:11
  Speaker 5: come off and escape though they were about to have
• 1:43:14
  Speaker 5: a well not really an escape, but they.
• 1:43:16
  Speaker 3: Were about to win one nothing over.
• 1:43:18
  Speaker 5: Austria, and I thought Austria was gonna come within that
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 5: one and a half spread against Argentina. Argentina's second goal
• 1:43:24
  Speaker 5: came in stoppage time there, and I think it was
• 1:43:27
  Speaker 5: messy yet again.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 3: Go check out the messy shirt ticking.
• 1:43:32
  Speaker 5: Statue, by the way, which is ridiculous, the new statue
• 1:43:35
  Speaker 5: of him. That's one of the worst things I've ever seen. Like,
• 1:43:38
  Speaker 5: I don't mind messy, but that statue is ridiculous. Anyway,
• 1:43:42
  Speaker 5: that's gonna do it. We're gonna the two players today.
• 1:43:47
  Speaker 5: We're on first five inning, first five inning, Cincinnati Reds
• 1:43:51
  Speaker 5: and Arizona Diamondbacks plus one and a half on the
• 1:43:54
  Speaker 5: run line for part of the bet and the other
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 5: part of the bet on the plus one thirty five
• 1:43:58
  Speaker 5: money line, or if you just want to play Arizona
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 5: money line, you could do it, but I'm gonna play
• 1:44:03
  Speaker 5: it this way, and I'm gonna track it as a push.
• 1:44:04
  Speaker 5: If they lose by one, it's that play in the
• 1:44:07
  Speaker 5: Reds money line in the first five Those are my
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 5: only plays today. We have to get back on track.
• 1:44:13
  Speaker 5: We have to go too and oh here to have
• 1:44:14
  Speaker 5: a winning day. I'm trying. That's gonna do it. Learn
• 1:44:19
  Speaker 5: it toe on Twitter, learn it on Instagram, like subscribe
• 1:44:21
  Speaker 5: to this channel here. Yesterday was awful. I don't know
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 5: what to tell you. We got to bounce back here.
• 1:44:28
  Speaker 5: I'm really pissed about w NBA thought we were gonna
• 1:44:31
  Speaker 5: at least get that win with that one. It looked
• 1:44:33
  Speaker 5: like every game looked like it was gonna be a
• 1:44:35
  Speaker 5: win for the majority of the of the time.
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 3: I just fucking hate that.
• 1:44:41
  Speaker 5: It was a very misleading. Oh and three, I don't
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 5: even want to talk about it. Listen to the show
• 1:44:46
  Speaker 5: on audio, Apple, Spotify, Spreak or whatever. Covered in you
• 1:44:49
  Speaker 5: because my yuke channel on YouTube. I did put up
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 5: a new covery yesterday, but my voice is so bad
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 5: right now.
• 1:44:54
  Speaker 3: I don't know what to do.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 5: Uh pagroon dot com, slash learn it toad and you
• 1:44:58
  Speaker 5: can support me that way and get it requests and whatever.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 5: Once my voice is better, I don't know what to
• 1:45:04
  Speaker 5: tell you. Loser cast on Tuesday nights. Giants Chief Spot
• 1:45:07
  Speaker 5: podcast will come back at some point. And I was
• 1:45:10
  Speaker 5: on Nephelin Death Squad Neft to America yesterday. It was
• 1:45:13
  Speaker 5: a fun episode again, so go check that out. If
• 1:45:16
  Speaker 5: you missed it, that's gonna do it. Thanks everybody, peace,
• 1:45:20
  Speaker 5: But don't.
• 1:45:21
  Speaker 3: You go quiet.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: Don't you fade from the flow. Your name steal mean
• 1:45:26
  Speaker 2: something to somebody for show.
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 1: Put the glass down.
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 3: Baby, look at me.
• 1:45:33
  Speaker 4: No hold on, hold.
• 1:45:39
  Speaker 1: On nothing, no.
• 1:45:45
  Speaker 4: Hold on hold on me for that bits.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 1: But it don't get
• 1:45:59
  Speaker 4: The hold on holt stay with me now,