Latest / Toadstool Sports / NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Monday 12/15/25

Transcript

NCAAB + NHL + NBA + NFL Best Bets Monday 12/15/25 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside, I want to kill myself. We're on Own
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: seven run over the last two days after tonight it
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: was just complete bullshit. So that's that's what I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show. Horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you about that. I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this, Man, with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four,
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: I have not had a good season. Man, with bookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues, I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm gonna burn my browins
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: hat Man, I don't know what is going on with
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Bruins. March eight? Is that what it is? I
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: don't even know it's March ninth. I think who even knows? Man,
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: I don't know what data is anymore. But I don't
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: even know what data is anymore. Man, back with you
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: after the worst day that I could possibly have, Back
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: with you as I always am until I die, at
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday it did not
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: go well for me. Own five the worst month that
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this. I
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: Slump yesterday, the slump discontinuous, The slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: do at this point other than potentially end it all.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: What is going on here? Oh my god, there we
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: go Streamyard doing some weird things again because I was
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: screen sharing for a second. There. What's up, everybody, It's
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: towed back with you, toad stil Sports. It is Monday,
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: December fifteenth. I'm not happy about how the NFL happened yesterday.
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: I thought I was gonna do much better with the NFL.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Not good yesterday at all one and two on the show,
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: and it was looking like it was gonna be a
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: really horrendous zero to three where it looks like I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: have no idea what I'm talking about, even though I do. Luckily,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: we did get the one win there. Yeah, I mean
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Arizona not good man. I mean, do you think I
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: expected Houston to put up forty points? No, obviously I
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: did not. The game was statistically closer than the final
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: looked like, because that's what Arizona always does, like, that's
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: what they're doing now they get blown out and then
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: you'll get the game statistically or how did that even happen?
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: Like this? It wasn't even really turnovers or anything. It
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: was like, I just don't even understand how they lost
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: by that much. And they were back within one score
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: of covering it, like pretty late in the game. So
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: I'm like, just get a touchdown, man, get within the number.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: But no, that didn't happen. They lost by twenty. I
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: think Cleveland Brown's I mean Sanders goodbye, Like, just get
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: rid of them. People are saying, oh, Kevin Stefanz again,
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: I agree to Fansky is an idiot. I mean, he
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: has no idea what he's doing. He should be fired
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: with these quarterback changes like last year, benching Jameis Winston
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: for DTR. Where the hell is DTR right now? Who knows? Ridiculous?
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: But yesterday, oh, Kevin Stefanski intentionally gave Shouldar Sanders the
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: wrong wristband with the wrong plays or something. I'm like,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: are you kidding me? Do you think that if he
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: had the right wristband or whatever, do you think they
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: would have won that game? They lost thirty one to three.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: Give me a break. Should Hear Sanders is horrible. Okay,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: he is awful. I'm right about him. He sucks. He's
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be out of the NFL. I still don't think
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams is any good. He didn't really need to
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: be yesterday. I mean, it just didn't even matter. The
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: Browns are absolute ass. They are who we thought there were.
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: I was trying to get that. I'm gonna try to
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: get that clip man, Dennis Green is that his name? Yeah, rip,
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna try. I completely forgot that's one of the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: most epic postgame press conferences ever. I need to get
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: that as a drop, but I haven't done it yet.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: I could do it right now. And in this case,
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: it's not the Bears who are who we thought they were.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: It's the Browns are who we thought they were. They
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: fucking suck. I mean, I don't know what else to
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: tell you about that. It was a spot to fade
• 4:18
  Speaker 1: the Bears. The Bears are one of the most overrated
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: teams I've ever seen. Doesn't even matter, Browns ass. Fuck
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the Browns. They're a dead team. Their quarterback is awful.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: And then we did win with the Bills. Hey man,
• 4:33
  Speaker 1: it was never in doubt all right, the Bills. They
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: just decided to spot the Patriots twenty one points out
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: of the gate, just to just to toy with them, okay,
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: And it was hilarious that these Patriot fans, even though
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I'm starting to kind of root for the Patriots again,
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: I was not yesterday, obviously, but the game's twenty one nothing.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Patriots are like, you guys are talking. You know, you're
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: telling us we have a week schedule. The Patriots aren't
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: for real. They're acting like the is over. And I
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: literally was sitting there and I'm like, the Bills are
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: still gonna win this game. I said that when they
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: were losing twenty one to nothing. I'm like, I don't care,
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: They're still gonna win. And they did. I mean, I
• 5:11
  Speaker 1: was confident in that handicap man. Maybe that one was
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: actually my most confident of the three. The Bills outscored
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: the Patriots thirty five to ten from then onwards for
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: like the remaining three quarters or whatever, and absolutely dominated
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: the game at that point on. So there you go.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: And two of the Patriots touchdowns were like fluke long
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: rushing plays where the Bills just I don't know what
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: happened on the Bill's defense there, Like the Patriots said,
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: two of their touch they have three touchdowns or no, wait,
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: what do they have four touchdowns in the game? I
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: think right, and half of them two of them are
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: on runs that were over fifty yards long. I mean,
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: it was just defensive meltdowns on the side of Buffalo
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: there that really did that. So I don't know, Josh Allen,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: He's still MVP caliber. Drake may probably not worthy of
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: it yet. He's probably not gonna get there yet. There
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: you go, the Bills win. I think the Patriots lose
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: again next week to the Baltimore Ravens, who, by the way,
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: luckily for me, I went three and two in my
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: money super contest pool or whatever you want to call it,
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: because even though I used my three plays from the
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: show and those went one and two, my extra ones
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: that I added were the Baltimore Ravens and the Indianapolis Colts.
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: So I'm like, yes, all right, Indianapolis Colts, there you go.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: Sam Darnold is ass I told you he is. Seattle
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: pulled that game out out of their ass somehow. Philip Rivers,
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: considering he's literally been on the sofa for four or
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: five years, he wasn't that bad against a Seattle defense
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: that is pretty good, So I don't know, not horrible
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: for Philip Rivers yesterday. Also, the team looked kind of
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: excited to play with him. I wish the Colts won, man,
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: I would have been very exciting. It would have been
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: awesome if they won. Plus I want to be right
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: about Darnold not being any goods, so whatever, what can
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: you do? And then we did win. On the other
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: the non NFL plays were really nice. Yesterday. We got
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: the win with Vancouver and hockey, which I think was
• 7:14
  Speaker 1: a two to one win, and Brooklyn Nets tied their
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: best win in franchise history, winning by I think forty
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: two or forty four points. In the game, they won
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: every single quarter. It was a double digit lead at
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: the end of the first quarter and they only padded
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the lead further after that. I believe Milwaukee didn't score
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: for the final over seven minutes in the game. Milwaukee
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: never scored again or something like that. So there you go.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: You want you want a nice you want to surf
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: the couch like Philip Rivers over the last four years
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: or whatever, You want to have a couch surfing betting win.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: That was one right there with the Brooklyn Nets. There
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: you go. It went against the market. Read too wanted
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: the nets yesterday except me, But there you go. We'll
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: move on to today. Today we got two NBA plays,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: even though they're only like six games. I like two
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: of them quite a bit. And we're going with the
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: College of Basketball play. Hopefully we can keep College of
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: Basketball going because we've we've been really good in college
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: basketball this season so far, so hopefully that continues. We'll
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: see the streak continues, we'll see if that if that
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: keeps going. Man, and my women's volleyball is dead now,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: by the way, I think I had gotten up to
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: the point where we had like I think I only
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: had like two of the Sweet sixteen wrong, but I
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: think I had two Elite eights wrong. And then my
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: champion loss last night, Texas lost to Wisconsin. So the
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: bracket is dead. So that's great. Nebraska's probably gonna win
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: the whole thing. Kentucky had an easy path to the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: Final four. Just great? Isn't that just great? And I
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: think it was mostly because like col Paly like busted up.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: They came from out of nowhere and busted up Kentucky's
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: region I don't know. I'm not paying attention. What's up, everybody, Jeffrey,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out, Nate, what's up? Back
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: to back four goal leads blown by the Penguins. Penguins
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: are not that good, man. I don't know. Did I did?
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: I give out an opinion against them yesterday? I feel
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: like I did, but maybe I'm wrong about that. I
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: don't remember. I don't remember which way I leaned in
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: that game. CJ, what's up? Man? College basketball today? We're
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: gonna get into it in a second. I do college
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: basketball first, and it's a very small board today, and
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I'm probably only gonna talk about like basically the game
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: that I have as a play. So I'm gonna I'm
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: gonna be doing that in a few minutes. What's crazy?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Oh the Nate? Yeah? The Yeah. Pittsburgh Penguins not to
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: be trusted. Man. As I keep saying, mister Pinsey, what's up, man?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: You had the Colts and the Rams? The Rams kind
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: of got away with it. Man. I did have them
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: in my pick them, but man, they got away with
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: that one. I was thinking they didn't have any chance
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: to cover that. As that game got going, Colts nice
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: easy cover with the Colts, though, I mean, Seattle, you're
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: not gonna cover a two touchdown number when you score
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: eighteen total points in the game. Or Seattle scored eighteen points.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, holy crap, the nets they started at six pm.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: I believe, man, that sucks. Man. No, you gotta not
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: forget man. I don't know. I gave it out in
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: the morning, so there was ample time for that one.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: There were some afternoon basketball games and stuff on Sundays.
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: That one was a six pm Eastern. All right, good morning, everybody.
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Let's get into college of basketball here. I don't know
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: if there's anything even really worth talking about. Why dude,
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: why is my screen? Oh my god, stream Yard, it's
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: sucking up right now? Hang on, how do we want
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to do this? Is that right? That looks right? All right?
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: There we go, I Streamyard just messing with the layouts
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: this morning. Man. All right, college basketball, we really don't
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: have that many games today that were even really worth
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: talking about. I will point out Niagara at VCU because
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I do think VCU is kind of in a tough
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: spot here. They're coming off a really difficult game against
• 11:21
  Speaker 1: New Mexico. So that's a bigger game for them. They
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: fell short in that game, and now they're coming off
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: of that. Could see them maybe being in a hangover
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: spot and not really paying attention to a really bad
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Niagara team. But the problem is VCU was a pretty
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: big favorite in this game, so I could see it
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: going either way. Even though New Mexico is a pretty
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: good team. VCU the record doesn't look that good, but
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: they're very battle tested. They were a big favorite in
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: this game. They lost as a big favorite, so sometimes
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: when you lose a big favorite, the team will actually
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: like that team will actually bounce back in the next game.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: So I don't want to touch this game at all,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: but my first instinct on it was to lead towards
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: taking the boys at Niagara. Niagre's coming off a very
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: ugly loss at Morgan State. They're not good, although Niagara
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: might even be worse. I don't know. Niagara's really not
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: good man Niagara. They only have one win on the
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: two wins on the season against Binghamton and Delaware State.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Not impressive, but they are playing a fourth straight road game,
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: so I mean, I can't really tell you to jump
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: in on that either. VCU a thirty one and a
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: half point favorite, though, with a one hundred and forty two
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: totalm that just seems like way too many points. Even
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: though this is a complete mismatchic. I don't think VCU
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: really needs to They don't need style points in college basketball, right,
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna come in and really need to blow
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the doors off of Niagara like it might be a
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: game again where they just want to get in and
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: get out and not really have to push it, you know.
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get to the best bet, and then
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: I don't even think I'm gonna talk about any of
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: these other games because there's not much going on here.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: The best bet this one is great. We're gonna be
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: on Alabama A and M plus two against against North Alabama. Yeah,
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: this one today eight pm Eastern. It is at Alabama
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: A and M in Huntsville where they all go to
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: space camp or whatever there. This is mostly a fane
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: of North Alabama. I do not like the spot for
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: North Alabama. Who's my mistake? I want to bring it
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: up in a new tab. First of all, Alabama A
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: and M is a little brother to North Alabama, all right,
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: So I think Alabama A and M will get up
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: for a game against North Alabama. Because Alabama A and M,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: they're in a very small conference week conference, I think
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: they basically are gonna get up for any other Alabama team,
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: especially because North Alabama made a nice run to their
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: conference final last year in the A Sun. Now both
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: teams are similarly battle testing. North Alabama does have losses
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: in here too, Mississippi State and Clemson. I think both
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: teams have actually lost to Clemson. But the crucial part
• 13:56
  Speaker 1: of this handicap is that North Alabama just pulled off
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: a crazy upset at San Francisco. And by just I
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: mean it was two weeks ago, but that's also part
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: of this handicap that they haven't played for two weeks.
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: That was a huge win, dude. They went to San
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Francisco out on the Pacific Coast. San Francisco were like
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: sixteen and a half point underdogs in that game and
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: North Alabama won the game outright, sixty five to sixty three.
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: That is a huge upset. And now the fact that
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: North Alabama's had two weeks off him and yet it'll
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: help them come back east and whatever. But the problem
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: is I talk about this in the NFL all the time,
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: and when you have a bye or an extended period
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: of rest and you're on a win streak. I think
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: that's bad because it hurts your momentum and when you're
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: coming up that big win like that, like North Alabama
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: probably has returned to campus now, you know, they've probably
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: been back at campus for a week or so, and
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: you know what happens. You get a big win like that,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: you're like big men on campus, you know what I mean,
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: as much as you can be like, hey, the basketball
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: team just got this awesome win whatever. So you're really
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: just kind of basking in that win the whole time,
• 15:02
  Speaker 1: getting over confident. And then after this game, North Alabama
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: has to go back to California and play Loyal and
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: Marrion Mount, who's been pretty hot as well to start
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: the season. So that's a big game as well. I
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: don't know if they're going to really pay attention to
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Alabama A and M. Man, they might overlook this Alabama
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: A and M team. It'll be a third straight road
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: game as well. So I don't like what I'm seeing here.
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: I don't like any of that. And I don't know
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: if San Francisco is in a bad spot in that
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: game or not. Let me see, Oh, yeah, I mean
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: I would say they were. I mean San Francisco had
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: that North Alabama game kind of sandwiched in between playing Minnesota, Colorado, Nevada,
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: then they played North Alabama, and then after that they
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: had Mississippi State up next, so it was surrounded by
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: all bigger games. So it was a bad spot for
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: San Francisco in that one. So that's part of the
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: reason why that happened. Now again we're looking at North
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: Alabama having to play an Alabama A and M team
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: that I just don't think they're going to pay attention to
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: Alabama A and M. They're undefeated at home, although granted
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: they played mostly bad teams. Two of their losses are
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: to Indiana and Clemson, like I said, although they lost
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: worse to those two teams than what North Alabama did
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: to the to Clemson as well into whatever I said
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: Mississippi State. I think anyway, Yes, we know that North
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: Alabama is the better team. I know that Alabama A
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: and M their losses have been really ugly. But we're
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: looking at a spread here that's two There's got to
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: be a reason why it's only two years. Like you're
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: getting North Alabama from a way better conference. They made
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: it to their conference championship last year, and they're only
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: laying two points on the road or one and a
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: half now, so it's like, what gives. It's basically a
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: pick the winner situation. Nobody's gonna want to take Alabama
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: A and M. Here, I will do it. I think
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: they'll win the game. They do have a game against
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: own Miss in two days, which you could maybe argue
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: that's worrisome. Maybe that's a look ahead, but I just
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: don't think Alabama A and M is gonna overlook any
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: in state bigger brother, you know what I mean. So
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: I think they're gonna get up for this game. They
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: bounce back off an ugly loss at Lipscomb by beating
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: a non Division one team and they barely beat them.
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: So that's another reason why I actually like Alabama A
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: and m Arkansas Baptist is who that team was. Alabama
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: A and M probably should have blown that team out.
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, a non Division one team, you don't take
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: them seriously, you should have blown them out. Alabama A
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: and M was up by eighteen at the end of
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: the first half, and I think they just packed it
• 17:33
  Speaker 1: in and they only won the game by eight so
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: they had a pretty poor performance and that one still
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: got the win. So I think that's gonna be kind
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: of a momentum builder here, but it's also going to
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: cause them to focus harder on this next game, you
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, Because it wasn't a great performance there,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: but they still got the wins. So I like teams
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: that are in a spot like that. So Alabama A
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: and M is the play. It's also a low total.
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: Both teams play slow, both teams are pu traid offensively,
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: especially Alabama A and M. Though they're very bad offensively.
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: But Alabama A and M, believe it or not, is
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: actually the slightly better defense according to Ken Pump, very slightly.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: We're getting the one and a half. It's down from
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: two with juice to one and a half. So the
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: money seems to be agreeing with this one. We're doing
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: it Alabama A and M plus the points in that one,
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: all right. And then we do have a TCU is
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: playing at APM as well against Incarnate Word, who I
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: believe is also in the state of Texas, So I
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: think Incarnate Word will get up for this. I mean
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: it's a game against one of the big boys, too,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: so I expect them to show focus in this one,
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: Incarnate Word coming off a loss at New Orleans, where
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: I believe New Orleans is a favorite here. No I'm wrong,
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: Incarnate Word was actually a slight road favorite there. Interesting,
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: so Incarnate Word they're actually on the way up. They're
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: actually not that bad out of the Southland right now,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: so there is the potential that they can hang in
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: this game. The problem is they're bad on the road,
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: zero to four on the road TCU. Interestingly, all of
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: their losses have come at home though, and TCU is
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: coming up beating in state little brother in North Texas,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: although they only beat them by ten in a very
• 19:15
  Speaker 1: ugly low scoring game, which of course is North Texas's
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: m So I don't really want to fade TCU in
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: the spot really, although I kind of expecting Current Word
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: to get up for this one, so I kind of
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: lean towards taking the points with them. It's down from
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: nineteen to eighteen the spread on TCU there total in
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: one hundred and forty five and a half. Just putting
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: all the information out there, all right, let's go to
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: NHL here, all right, Hopefully that was a satisfactory CJ.
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: If you're still there are you with me? You're gonna
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: play Alabama A and M with me? FanDuel has money
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: on Wyoming. I have no real opinion on the Wyoming game. Yeah,
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: it looks like Wyoming looks like a public and professional
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: play here. It looks like there's just no action on
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: celt Dakota State at all. Wyoming up from four and
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: a half to five, ninety five percent of the tickets
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: ninety eight percent of the cash on them. I have
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: no situation we'll read on this at all. But this
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: game is in Sooue Falls, cult Dakota, I believe. So
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: it is a semi home game for celth Dakota State,
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: and celt Dakota State plays at sue Falls like all
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: the time because that's it's a Summit League staple, like
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: they play their conference tournament there and whatever. So yeah,
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: I mean there are definitely some advantages to soelth Dakota
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: State in that game. I would not lay the points
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: with Wyoming in that one. All right, we have a
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: hockey Florida and Tampa Bay is the first game up.
• 20:49
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna have any plays in hockey today. By
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: the way, Florida and Tampa Bay is an interesting game.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: Of course. These teams faced off once this year already
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: and Tampa Bay got the win, and that was playoff
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: revenge because Florida eliminated Tampa Bay from the playoffs last
• 21:05
  Speaker 1: just that was a big win for Tampa Bay. But
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, regardless of that, I think both teams want
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: to show up in this game. These teams don't like
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: each other. Now, Florida is not exactly in the greatest
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: spot as they're finishing a road trip here already two
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: and one on the road trip, and they just shut
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: out Dallas on the road two nights ago, and now
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: they're playing a fourth game in six days, so with
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: all in different cities as well, including two in high elevation,
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: and now they're coming from Dallas back to Florida. Not
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: exactly the greatest spot here, although this one's still on
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: the road at Tampa Bay. But I don't like this
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: how the spot sets up. Man, If you smash Dallas
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: forda nothing like that on the road, you're gonna be
• 21:46
  Speaker 1: riding a little bit high, man. So I don't really
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: love the spot for Florida here for Tampa Bay. Even
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: though Tampa Bay did beat Florida already this year, which
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: was at Florida as well, so Florida does have kind
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: of a little bit of a road reversal revenge angle here.
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay is returning home from a road trip, though,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: And you know, I warn't against teams returning from a
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: road trip. I'm almost never gonna be on a team
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: returning home from a road trip. I won't automatically fade them,
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: but I'm almost never gonna play on them. And I'm
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: not gonna recommend playing on Tampa here either. Tampa's been
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: on the road for a week. They did stay in
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the Eastern time zone, though, so that makes it a
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: little bit easier. They played Toronto, Montreal in New Jersey
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: and New York the Islanders. I mean, they were unable
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: to get revenge over the Islanders lost in a shootout.
• 22:35
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming back home from that, but I don't
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: think they're gonna be unfocused. Like usually, the handicap is
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: when a team returns home from a road trip, they
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: have to get back to family life. That can add
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: like a distraction where they have to get back do
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: stuff at home that wasn't getting done, you know, and
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: they don't get to fully focus on hockey. I don't
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: really see them overlooking Florida thought right, I mean, it's
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: Florida back to back returning champs, still the team that
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: eliminated Tampa from the playoffs last year, So I mean,
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: I can't get involved in this game at all. It's
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: one of those games where I say, well, maybe the
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: over makes sense on the total, but seventy five percent
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: of tickets and only sixty three percent of the cash
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: and the over doesn't look that great to me, so
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: I would hesitate to do that. I didn't even look
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: to see if my last over Reid was correct or not.
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: But basically, when I see two teams in bad spots,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of my reaction to it. As far
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: as the market read the market, Reid is saying Florida
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: as the underdog, Tampa Bay down for minus one forty
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: one twenty nine, sixty percent of the tickets and fifty
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash, so less of the money than
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: the ticket percentage on Tampa Bay. And I think it's
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: mostly because it's a return home spot. I'm not really
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: gonna disagree with the Florida side there. I'll probably give
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: a slight lean that way because I think the return
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: home spot is worse. It's one of the worst situational
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: spots to be in. So I guess all agree with that,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: but not strong under In Predators Blues six and not five.
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: I mean the difference between six and five is pretty huge,
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: Like five is really low for hockey. I mean also
• 24:15
  Speaker 1: the Blues, I mean they play a lot of high
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: scoring games. I mean, I'm not surprised about that. The Blues.
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: They can't stop anybody, Like, what are we talking about here?
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: The Blues goaltending is awful, Like Bennington is a sieve.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: I don't know if he's playing tonight or not, but
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: it looks like the line is five and a half
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: on the total, which is a pretty typical. Typically, the
• 24:36
  Speaker 1: NHL totals range between five and a half and six
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: and a half. Anaheim at the Rangers, Oh boy, the
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: Rangers are at home where we know the Rangers suck
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: ass at home, as I point out every time they play.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: The Anaheim Ducks are mediocre on the road, but better
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: than better than the Rangers. Aren't home by a lot.
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: The Rangers are like three eight and three at home
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: or something like that. Terrible at home. Anaheim coming up
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: a pretty ugly loss two nights ago to the Devils.
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: Actually two pretty bad losses to the Islanders and the Devils,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: each by three goals. I mean, I'm not saying losely
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: to those teams is bad, because those teams are all right.
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: But still you lose back to back games by three goals,
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: I think you are going to show up in the
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: next game. I think they're gonna try to even up
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: the road trip here. So I think Anaheim will be
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: motivated in this one. The Rangers. They're coming up an
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: overtime win over Montreal. Pretty nice win. And that's an
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: Original six match. I'p remember Rangers Montreal, so maybe it
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: means a little bit more. It might mean more than
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: playing a Western Conference team here. So, and the Rangers
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: still suck ass at home, even though they did get
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: that win barely at home. I would lean towards Anaheim
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: as the dog in this one. The money seems to agree.
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: Rangers down for minus one twenty five to minus one
• 25:53
  Speaker 1: twenty sixty seven percent of tickets at sixty three percent
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the rain, so it looks like
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: the money is against them. I won't disagree with that.
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: Lean Anaheim there. Ottawa at Winnipeg Ottawa did not get
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: the job done for our friend SOB the other day,
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: losing at Minnesota where I don't know if Minnesota had
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: Quinn Hughes yet, but he killed my Bruins last night,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: so I'm not happy about that. Ottawa took the loss close,
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: lost to Minnesota. Now they gotta go to Winnipeg. Will
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: they be a bit hung over after the game against Minnesota.
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: I don't know. But you're gonna get Ollmark back in
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: net here, I'm pretty sure because they use Marilane and
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: in that one so day off for Omark. He'll be
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: back in net here, so you get Ottawa's better goal.
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: He's speaking of the Bruins. I kind of miss Ollmark man.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: He is good. Winnipeg may really be in the worst
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: spot here though, because they just smashed Washington. You remember
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: that was a play I gave out the other night
• 26:54
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. That was our one hockey play and it
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: was a winner. Washington I thought was in a terrible
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: spot sandwiched in between Carolina and Minnesota after they fought
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: Minnesota to try to get Quinn Hughes, so great spot
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: to play Winnipeg. They got the win, they broke along
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: lost streak. But are they gonna be in a letdown
• 27:13
  Speaker 1: spot off of a really really big win over Washington
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: Man maybe? I mean that was a very very satisfying
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: win on by the way, something I didn't realize Hella
• 27:23
  Speaker 1: Buck actually came back in that game. So again, it's
• 27:27
  Speaker 1: the reverse injured player theory is not really a thing
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: when it's a goalie because there's not really you know,
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: there's no like chemistry thing that you really need, right,
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: It's just like your goaliees back in net. He's awesome,
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: he knows what he's doing, you know what I mean,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: So like it's not really something like it's not like
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: the injured player theory and other sports. It's just a
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: reverse injured player, let's just put it that way. I
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: didn't even realize he was coming back though, but he did.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: He got the win. Don't know if he's gonna play
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: in this game or not, if they're or if they're
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: gonna ease him back in. It's a tough game to
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: handicap from me. No, yeah, no play for me at all.
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: But Winnipeg up for minus one twenty five to minus
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: one twenty seven here. Uh, I don't know, man, I mean,
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I don't love Winnipeg off of that big win though,
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: so I kind of lean towards Ottawa there. Don't really
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: see the percentages yet on that one. Don't love it
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: at all though Predators scored seven on Thursday. Neither team
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: scores many. Yeah, but the Blues allow a ton of
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: goals though, like that is that is definitely part of
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: that is part of the reason why the total is
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: where it is. It's five and a half juice to
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: the over and or six. You're right, the money is
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: coming in on the under, though eighty three percent of
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: tickets fit on the over fifty cash on the under.
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: Money is coming in on the under. Nashville does does
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: play more under games, I don't know. I don't really
• 28:53
  Speaker 1: trust it. I don't know who the goalies are gonna
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: be in this one for Nashville. Actually, on the side,
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: I disagree with all the money here. Saint Louis is
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: down for minus one thirty one to minus one fourteen.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: The money is all coming in on Nashville, sixty two
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets on Saint Louis, sixty two percent
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: of the cash on Nashville. I actually disagree with that.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: Nashville coming off playing in elevation at Colorado. Colorado got
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: their revenge on Nashville four to two. There was an
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: empty net goal in there, but the game was three
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: to one late in the game, so it was not
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: really that close. But still Nashville had to play Colorado again.
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Now they're coming off of that playing a lowly Saint
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: Louis team that Nashville just beat on the eleventh seven
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: to two. So this is a bit of a quick
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: revenge spot for Saint Louis, which is a decent angle
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: in hockey, and Nashville has to play Carolina next one
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: to get home. I don't like it, man, I do
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: not like how the sets up for Nashville. I do
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: not understand why the money is coming into Nashville in
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: this one. Saint Louis just broke a loss street with
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: a win over Chicago. I don't think they're gonna be
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: over confident after beating Chicage. They do have a couple
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: of days rest, which I don't really think is gonna
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: hurt any of their momentum or anything like that. They're
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: gonna show up against the team that just embarrassed them
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: seven to two two games ago. So I would lean
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: to Saint Louis in this game. I don't know what
• 30:14
  Speaker 1: the market is doing there. I mean, as far as
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: the total, I don't have a good read on it.
• 30:19
  Speaker 1: The money is saying under. You know me, I'm basically
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: never gonna play it under. In hockey, There's almost never
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: a circumstance that I'm gonna do it because of the
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: empty net goals that could just take it down. There's
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: like it's like walking a tightrope, like I don't understand,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: Like there's no reason to ever do it, Like there
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: are just better ways to attack hockey. I don't think
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: I'm ever gonna give out an under in hockey. I
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: don't know if I've ever even played one in my life. Uh,
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: Saint Louis will have Bennington back in net, I assume
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: because they've been alternating, which I think is bad. But
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: take from that what you will, I guess. But if
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: you look at his last few games, they allowed seven goals.
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: I mean some of them he probably didn't allow, but
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: seven goals three five and four and then three three.
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, is that really the guy You want a
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: net when you're when you're playing an under. I wouldn't
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: say so. For Nashville I don't know if it's gonna
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: be Sorrows or not. He is their better goalie. It
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: will be him. They use a noon and in their
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: last game, so Sorrows will be in net so that
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: is better, I guess, uh, But I don't know, man,
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: And I do lean to nash I mean I do
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: lean to Saint Louis in this game, though, so which
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that is correlated to an under
• 31:37
  Speaker 1: or not. Really, I would almost think Nashville is more
• 31:39
  Speaker 1: correlated to an under because if you think, if you
• 31:42
  Speaker 1: think Nashville is gonna win, they're probably gonna be keeping
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: the game lower scoring. But I I think Saint Louis
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: is gonna win, So I kind of disagree with all
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: of it. Like if Saint Louis is gonna win, they're
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: gonna have to overcome Bennington being absolute shit. So I
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: kind of see it being a higher scoring games, be honest,
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: But what do I know? I don't I don't do
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: hockey totals. But again, I think the better total, in
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: my opinion, is over in Florida Tampa Bay. But I
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: don't love that either. Plus that is a battle where
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: it could be like a playoff atmosphere. So usually those
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: types of games I do not want to look over LA.
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: Kings are at Dallas. LA coming off two pretty ugly
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: losses to Seattle and Calgary. Those are not good teams.
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: They just lost to Calgary at home. LA has not
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: been good at home this year, so they might be
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: happy to just leave going on the road. They're starting
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a road trip here, so I think it is a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: good spot for LA. I mean, again, they're horrible at
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: home right now. You have a bad loss at home
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: to a bad team, one of the best things you
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: can do is just get out of there, just focus
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: back on hockey. They'll focus on Dallas. I mean, Dallas
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: one of the best records in all of hockey. Nobody's
• 32:53
  Speaker 1: really gonna overlook Dallas. Dallas, however, did just return home
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: from a road trip quick two game road trip, and
• 33:01
  Speaker 1: they got embarrassed by Florida, which I just mentioned a
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: little while ago, four to nothing. So and lost five
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: to two the last game of that quick road trip too,
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: So I think it's a bounce back spot for Dallas
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: as well. I expect focus out of Dallas in this one.
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: This one, to me sets up like more of an
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: under to me the money is agreeing with that one
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of tickets on the over seventy eight
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash on the under. Both these teams
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: like tend to play a lot of under style games,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: so I think the under makes more sense in this
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: game than the other games. With both teams, I think
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up focus that which usually means they're
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be focusing defensively, playing more intensely. Dallas down for
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: minus one forty to minus one thirty three on the
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: money line, but I don't really see any percentages that
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: really give me any information yet on that one. Again,
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna be focused, so I
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: just don't know. I mean, in that case, I would
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: probably lean with the better team, which is Dallas, But
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: the Kings are really good on the road, man, so
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I would worry about that too. But I don't want
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: anything to do with that game. If I was gonna
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: play that game, I actually that is actually a situation
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: where I would actually say the under is probably the
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: preferred way of playing it, but I'm not actually gonna
• 34:13
  Speaker 1: do it. All right, NBA, we have my Boston Celtics
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: against the Detroit Pistons, in the first game up at
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: seven pm on Peacock. Now, this is a revenge spot
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: for Detroit. That might mean something because if you remember,
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: and it happened in Boston as well, at the Titty Garden,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: the TD Garden, you can get merch by the way
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: out like they basically have their Boston always has like
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: shit poster merch men, if that makes sense with the
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: guys that would sell, like the Yankees suck shirts outside
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: of Fenway like they have other merch and they have
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: a Titty Garden one that you can get outside of Boston.
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: You can get it in Celtic or bruin colors, I believe.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: But yes, that is where this game happened, where Detroit
• 35:03
  Speaker 1: lost their chance at a franchise record fourteen game win streak.
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: That's what they were going for a little while ago.
• 35:10
  Speaker 1: The Celtics ended it and beat Detroit after Detroit at
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: thirteen straight wins, So you know Detroit's gonna remember that,
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: and they returning to the scene of the crime, they're
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: gonna want to get this win. So I expect focus
• 35:21
  Speaker 1: out of the Pistons in this one. Pistons probably not
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: as good as the really good record looks though, Man,
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: they do have a couple of days off. I don't
• 35:31
  Speaker 1: really think it's gonna disrupt their momentum in my opinion.
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, starting a road trip in such a big
• 35:36
  Speaker 1: game like this, I think they're gonna show up for it.
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: Even though they are coming off a blowout win over
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: to the Atlanta Hawks, which normally I would say is
• 35:44
  Speaker 1: a pretty satisfying win. But I don't think they're that
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: satisfied because of what the Celtics did to them last time.
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: Celtics could be a bit hung over because they did
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: just take a loss that ended a win streak for them,
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: And you know, I talk about it a lot of
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: times when a win streak ends, you'll be hung over
• 36:00
  Speaker 1: into the next game. And I think that did actually
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: happen with Detroit. And I think I might have played
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: against them after they lost the win streak. I think
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: I faded them and I think we got a win
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: on the show if I'm not mistaken. But it could
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: happen to the Celtics here. Man, When you're rolling along
• 36:13
  Speaker 1: and you're winning and you take a loss, sometimes you
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: do take another loss. Celtics are returning home, but it's
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: kind of a weird situation. Where they went up to Toronto.
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: Then they had three days off, and then they played
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: at Milwaukee, and now they have three more days off
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: and now they're back home. So technically it's a return
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: home spot, but I don't know if it's one where
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: they're really going to be like totally distracted. Plus, are
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: you really going to overlook the team that has the
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: best record in the conference Detroit? I don't think so.
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: So I think the Celtics will show up. They're also
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: under Joe Mizzoula. The Celtics also do well typically off
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: an ugly loss, which is what they're doing right here.
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: And that was a win for us on the show
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: with the Milwaukee Bucks. Celtics just had a run of
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: big wins. Man, so I said, fade them in that spot.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: Celtics blew the game. Celtics are winning that game by
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: double digits in the second quarter, and they lost the
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: game outright by fifteen as nine point favorites. Pretty embarrassing.
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: So I think both teams are going to show up
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: for this one. Man, the money is coming in on
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: the Celtics for what it's worth, up from two to
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Sixty four percent of tickets ninety
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: one percent of the cash on them. I mean, in
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: a way, it looks pretty weird, right, Like the public
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: is going to come in and look at this and think,
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: how is Detroit at twenty and five? How are they
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: getting points? You know what I mean? And they're also
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: good on the road at eight and three. Celtics pretty
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: good at home though at eight and four. But it
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: just looks way too easy to take Detroit, right and
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: people will probably even point out, oh, it's a revenge
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: spottle though I think that is that is an angle
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: that does work, the revenge angle, but in this case,
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: maybe it's not the biggest thing. I don't know. I
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: think the money coming in on the Celtics is more
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: like the numbers guys are doing. That is what my
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: opinion is. I think I think the situation is still
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: a little bit better for Detroit. So I think I
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: would probably actually still lean to Detroit in this one
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: because I'm not a pure numbers guy. I mean, these
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: guys are not robots. I think this situation matters, but
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: I would hesitate on it because again, the Celtics are
• 38:15
  Speaker 1: favored for a reason. The odds makers are telling you essentially,
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: these two teams are almost evenly power rated, so they're
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: basically telling you Detroit's not actually the best team in
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the conference, and that the Celtics are actually one of
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: the top few teams in the conference. So interesting that
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: that's basically what the power ratings and the odds makers
• 38:35
  Speaker 1: guys have to say. Celtics, they got to get to
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: the playoffs and get Jason Tatum backman and then pull
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: off some shockers. Come on, I'm not under any delusion
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: of the Celtics that can do with this. But the
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: East is actually easier to get through than the West. Man,
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: There's no even though Detroit's record is good, there's no
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: team that's like there that's like, oh, this team is
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: gonna absolutely dominate the East, you know what I mean?
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: The West is gonna be the one. The West is
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: gonna be a gauntlet where the teams just wreck each
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: other with Houston, Denver, okase scene. One of those three
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: teams is gonna get through the West. But I think
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: it's gonna be a real fight, man, So I don't know. Anyway.
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: Toronto at Miami is the next game up. This game,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: both teams have a lot of time off. They both
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: got bounced from the NBA Cup. In their last games
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: in the quarterfinals, Toronto lost to the New York Knicks.
• 39:30
  Speaker 1: That was on Tuesdays, so they have almost a week
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: off with four days excuse me, a four game lost
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: streak and now they have five days off, So I
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: think that's good. Again, when you're on a lost streak,
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: breaking that lost streak is good. You break that losing momentum.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: They're starting a road trip, They're gonna be focused here.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: The problem is the Heat ear in a very similar spot.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: The Heat also got bounced from the Cup last on
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: Tuesday as well, on the same day at Orlando, which
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: I thought the Heat would play better in that one
• 40:02
  Speaker 1: because it was a little bit of a revenge quick
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: revenge spot there too, but they didn't adjust. They lost
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: by a little bit more that next time, so they
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: got bounced. They went into this break on a four
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: game lostreek as well, so I think again that's a
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: positive because it'll break their losing momentum. They're playing this
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: game at home. Of course, both teams look like they're
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: in positive spots, man, So I think the angle is
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: probably you just got to lean to the better team,
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: which is the home team, which is the Heat. They're
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: up from five and a half to six, seventy three
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: percent of tickets eighty four percent of the cash on
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: the Heat, So I yeah, I agree with the Heat generally,
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: And people are probably gonna look at this and think, well,
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, Toronto's fifteen and eleven. The Heat are
• 40:44
  Speaker 1: fourteen and eleven. But I'm getting six points with Toronto.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: It almost looks too easy to take Toronto, right, But
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: the money is the market is telling you the heater
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: or the better team. The Osmankers are telling you that.
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And remember, the Heat were without their two best players
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: for like a I'm a jory, Like they haven't had
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: their two best players in the lineup almost the entire season,
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. Like Hero is out all
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: the way up until like for the whole season up
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: until like very recently, and out of bios missed significant
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: time as well. So now that the Heat are intact, yeah,
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: they're definitely a threat in the East. And they're also
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: really good at home at ten and three. So I
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: don't exactly want to buck that team. It's in a
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: good spot too, So that would be my opinion there, Zach,
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: what's up? Thanks for hanging out players, spend their Cup money.
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, do they get money just
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: for participating? How does that work? I don't even know. Uh,
• 41:38
  Speaker 1: I don't even know if the if the if the
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: players get that money right away, like it probably goes
• 41:42
  Speaker 1: to the team, and I don't know how it works.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: But I mean, for the players, that extra money, it
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: doesn't even mean anything, Like they've their contracts are so big.
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: It's like I think they just don't even like that
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: amount doesn't even register to them, probably, you know what
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: I mean. Like, I don't think that's the case. Unless
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: they're talking about Antoine Walker bankrupting himself, but that was
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: after he retired. He had no idea how to money manage.
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: That's the thing with these athletes. Man, they make all
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: this money and then they retire and they think it
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: was gonna be that constant flow and they just have
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: no idea how to manage their money and they just
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: blow it all, you know what I mean. Dallas is
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: playing at Utah. This is a weird one. Dallas coming
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: up beating Brooklyn. Though it was not an impressive win.
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: I thought they wouldn't cover because Dallas had a huge
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: win over Houston the game before. That, although they had
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: pretty significant rest coming into the game against Brooklyn. Now
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: they have a weird single game road trip into high
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: elevation and then they get the Pistons after. This looks
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: like a spot where they might get caught. Man, it's
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: a weird spot. Although they did play in Denver not
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: that long ago in one outright, so they're not really
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: They're not a team that's gonna be phased by playing
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: in high elevation. At the very least, Utah is better
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: at home though. I mean Utah I think as five
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: or six of their nine wins at home, so they're
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: definitely better at home. But Utah is coming off an
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: upset win at Memphis, which was Memphis I believe with
• 43:10
  Speaker 1: John Morant, but not with Zach Eedy. I believe Utah
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: pulled off the win there. Now they're coming back home
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: from that. They have the Lakers next, So I don't
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: love how this sets up for Utah either. Man. I
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: think both teams are kind of in weird spots. They're
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: both in bad spots. I don't know which team I
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: would want. Really. The money looks like it's saying Jazz
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: MAVs are down from two and a half to one.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: I don't really see percentages that really tell me much yet.
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: I guess I will agree with the jazz side, but
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I don't have a strong opinion. And of course that
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: means my two NBA players are both of these later games.
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: So that's what we're gonna get into now, and then
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: I'll talk about Monday Night football and then we will
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: end the show. They expect to win and spend it already,
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: I have no idea, don't know if that is relevant
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: at all. Put cut money on Reddit Roulette, very very
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: stupid thing to do obviously. Again, yeah, they have no
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: money management skills. I mean, I don't play roulette at
• 44:16
  Speaker 1: all because it's I know that, like, there's no way
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: that you can win long term and at the odds
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: are against you. There's no skill involved. The house wins,
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: so I can't do it. I only play where I
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: think I have an edge, where skill can actually get
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: you wins, and that is sports betting and poker. And
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: I guess there is a way to do it at craps,
• 44:37
  Speaker 1: but I'm not good at it, so I stay and
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: I guess you can technically kind of do it at blackjack,
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: but otherwise, yeah, I'm staying away. Dallas is coming together.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Uta has a big guard doing their scoring. Who does
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Dallas have a point guard right now? Still nobody? I mean,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: I don't know. I I would slightly lean towards Utah
• 45:01
  Speaker 1: in that game. Is all say about that George is
• 45:06
  Speaker 1: the big guard? Yeah, I don't know. I mean, Dallas
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: is still kind of a mess to me. Utah is
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: fairly tough at home. Houston at Denver. This is the
• 45:15
  Speaker 1: first play that I have here. Best bets time again.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: Here we go first, one up, We're going to be
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: on the Houston Rockets plus the one and a half.
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: You could probably go money line on this. Two. It's
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: down from two to one. Not really, I mean well,
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: I mean there is a little bit of a difference
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: because two was a full bucket in the NBA, But
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: I did not see two anywhere, So the money is
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: moving towards the Rockets. I'm going to agree with this.
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: The oddsmakers are basically telling you Houston's actually the slightly
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: better team here. Seventy eight percent of tickets and only
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: sixty two percent of the couch on the Nuggets. The
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: public is coming in on the Nuggets because they got Jokic.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: They got the known quantity man. The Nuggets have the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: name players, you know what I mean. The Nuggets are
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: gonna be the preferred side by the public. But the
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: Nuggets have actually not been good at home this year. Really,
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: they're actually better on the road. The Nuggets are six
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: and four at home, and Houston even I think they're
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: really good on the road last year and they're really
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: good on the road again eight and four. So Houston
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: is actually a better road team than the Nuggets are
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: a home team. So that's something interesting of note. Houston
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: also just lost at home to the Denver Nuggets, well
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: a while ago now, but still it sets up kind
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: of a road reversal revenge angle here. You know, they're
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: gonna remember that. That was a big game. I actually
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: liked Denver on that one, and Denver got the win.
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: The spot was a bit better for them. Now since then,
• 46:41
  Speaker 1: Houston's only lost one other game and it was a
• 46:43
  Speaker 1: zigzag spot at Utah where they just I don't think
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: they showed up after blowing out Utah in the first
• 46:49
  Speaker 1: of the two, which was a loss for us on
• 46:52
  Speaker 1: the show in that first game against Utah. But Houston's
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: definitely gonna remember that. Oh, no, then they did lose
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: to Dallas, to my mistake, but they're definitely gonna rem
• 47:00
  Speaker 1: when they only have a few losses over the last
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: month or so, they're gonna remember that one of them
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: was that huge game against Denver. They're coming off of
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: a bad performance against the Clippers as well, where Houston
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: was a pretty big favorite in that game against the
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Clippers and they only won by two. So I think
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: they were already looking ahead to this road trip, man,
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: looking ahead to Denver, because normally you think Houston would
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: bounce back after losing to an ugly Dallas team. They didn't.
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: But now I think this is gonna be the supreme
• 47:28
  Speaker 1: focused spot for Houston here man starting a road trip,
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: that's usually a focused spot when you start a road trip.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: They're coming off of a lackluster game at home. That's
• 47:37
  Speaker 1: a good thing, I think as well. The fact that
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: they have extra time off here. I don't think it
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: is a negative in this case because they weren't really
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: on a win streak because they had lost to Dallas
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: the prior game. They didn't play well against the Clippers.
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: They're gonna be focused here man. Whereas for Denver, I
• 47:53
  Speaker 1: do not think they are in a good spot. Denver's
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: are turning over from a road trip where they have
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: been on the road since Wednesday, December third. They have
• 48:02
  Speaker 1: not played a home game since then at least, so
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: they're returning home now. And you know, I talk about
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: it the return home spots. They're bad teams a lot
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: of times. They get settled back in at home, especially
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: with Denver because Denver's that extra time off here as well.
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: But I think the extra time is a negative here
• 48:19
  Speaker 1: and the fact that they returning back home, you get
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: back to family life, you have stuff to do back
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: at home. Denver's on a four game win streak as well,
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: so I think the extra time off will actually hurt
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: their momentum as well, because again it could stop that winning,
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: you know, momentum that they have here. Sure they should
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: be focused against Houston, but I just think the spot
• 48:39
  Speaker 1: sets up a lot better for Houston here. So that's
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: what we're gonna do. We're gonna take Houston in this one.
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Denver they also haven't been impressive recently. Man, they lost
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: to Dallas as well, just like Houston did. Denver did
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: it at home, and then Denver's wins are against India
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: Indiana barely beating Atlanta, and then Charlotte and Sacramento. Those
• 49:02
  Speaker 1: are all those are I mean, except for Atlanta. The
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: rest of those teams are not good. So now they're
• 49:06
  Speaker 1: stepping way up in class to face Houston. And in
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: the last game, Denver blew Sacramento out on the road,
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: winning by thirty one points, So that's what they're coming
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: off of, whereas Houston's coming off of barely scraping by
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: a complete mess of a Clipper team at home. So yeah,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: it all sets up nicely as far as I can see.
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: Houston is the play in that one, all right, They're
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: replaying it on Saturday. Yeah, I mean, basically, if this
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: game has some weird outlier result, it'll probably make sense
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: to zig zag it in the next game. But other
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: than that, I don't have a whole lot else to
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: say about that. Doubling up on Red or Black, Well,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: roulette in general never works out, like that's just the
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: way that it is. The roulette wheel has zero and
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: double zero on it, so you're done, Like, the odds
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: are not in your Red. You get fifty to fifty
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: odds on Red, but your odds of winning playing either
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: Red or Black your odds are less than fifty percent
• 50:10
  Speaker 1: to win, regardless of which one you play, because of
• 50:13
  Speaker 1: the zero and double zero. So again the house. Everybody
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: knows this, but people still play it because they're addicts,
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: or they just like the entertainment of it or whatever.
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: I don't like it. Again, I'm not gonna put my
• 50:27
  Speaker 1: money where I don't have an edge. I can't do it. It's
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: against my values, so I can't do it, and against
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: my autism. Six game road trip. But they're playing on
• 50:37
  Speaker 1: Christmas against the Lakers yet the NBA Christmas Day thing
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: is a big thing. But yes, I mean it's a
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: big road trip. I suppose as well. But this is
• 50:46
  Speaker 1: a huge game for the Rockets, so I expect them
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: to show up here. And then oops, I got rid
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: of the NBA schedule. Hold on the last game. We
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: do have a play on this one as well. Whoops,
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: I got rid of the NFL schedule now, God damn it, dude,
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: Hold on a second. My voice is also failing again.
• 51:06
  Speaker 1: I need to figure out a way to I don't know,
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: not talk as loud or when it's winter. My sinuses
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: are also terrible. I don't know what to do here, Man,
• 51:15
  Speaker 1: Memphis at the Clippers. I just talked about the Clippers
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: and Memphis a little while ago, so you might know
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: which way I'm going with this, and it is Memphis
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: plus the points, Memphis plus four and a half, We're
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: gonna fade the Clippers here. Clippers are a disaster, and
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: I know it looks too easy to take the points
• 51:32
  Speaker 1: with Memphis. Usually I'm not gonna do something like that where, oh,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: Memphis is the better team and they're getting points at
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: where they look like they're the better team, they have
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: the better record at eleven and fourteen. The oddsmakers are
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: actually telling you the Clippers are the better team by
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: the fact that they're favored by four and a half
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: even though they're only six and nineteen. So I know
• 51:51
  Speaker 1: to the public eye it's gonna look too easy to
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: take Memphis, but this is a situational spot where I'm
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: gonna do it anyway. Clippers, by the way, they suck
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: at home three and seven. After they got their new
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: arena last year, they were really good at home for
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: a while, but that has not been the case this year.
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: Clippers seem to have almost no home court advantage. They
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: suck at home. Memphis is okay, at least on the
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: road at five and seven. For the Clippers, they're in
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: a terrible spot. They're turning over from a road trip.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: So yet again I'm gonna iterate that, reiterate that when
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: a team returns home from a road trip, in this case,
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: they were on the road since Monday, December first, And
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think they really did come home
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: at any point during this when they had a break,
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: and if they did, they had to go back out
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: to Houston in the middle of there and then come
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: back home again. So at best for them, they're crisscrossing
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: the country, so that's not good either. But returning home
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: from a road trip I always again I'm gonna talk
• 52:49
  Speaker 1: about it, bad spot. You're turning from a road trip
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: and you get distracted, you get back to family life.
• 52:55
  Speaker 1: Now I realize that they've lost some Memphis twice since Friday,
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: November twenty, losing at home by five and losing on
• 53:02
  Speaker 1: the road by nine. But maybe Memphis just has their number, man,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: I don't know. Like again, I see this being a
• 53:09
  Speaker 1: distracted spot. And if you look at what the Clippers
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: do next, they got to play Oklahoma City on the road,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: then they come back home and play the Lakers in Houston.
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Those are way bigger games. So I don't know if
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: the Clippers are gonna get up for this man, even
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: though they did lose twice to Memphis. And the other
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: crux of this is that look at how the Clippers
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: finished the road trip. They played Minnesota and Houston on
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: the road, and they played both of them really close.
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: The Clippers were substantial underdogs in both games, and they
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: almost won both games and fell short in both. And
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: you know, I talk about it, when a team falls
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: short is a big dog like that, they tend to
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: come up flat in the next game. And now they're
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: doing this off of back to back games, plus returning
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: over from a road trip, plus it's a sandwich spot
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: where they have bigger games up next. This is an
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: awful spot for the Clippers, dude, and they just suck
• 53:58
  Speaker 1: right now. So yeah, it's all coming together. Memphis, on
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: the other hand, as I just mentioned, they're coming off
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: a loss as a favorite at home to Utah, ugly
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: loss man at home and by the way, that was
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: the return of John Morant, So I warned about that
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: it was a weird spot where Memphis had lost Zach Edy,
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: but John Morant was coming back, and yes, Zach Edy
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: is still out in this game. I know, But La,
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: I mean, I know they have Zubach and whatever, but La,
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: I mean, they seem to be kind of unfocused here
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: because it seems like Zubach is kind of on the
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: trade the trading block right now. So I don't know.
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think there's a lot of mental things
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: going on with La right now. Man with the Clippers
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: for Memphis again, they're coming off an ugly loss to Utah.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: They won't let that stand. They're starting a road trip,
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: which I think is gonna be a focused spot. A
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: couple of days rest here, I think they're gonna show
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: up for this one off with such an ugly loss.
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: But as I was saying, that was the return of
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: John Morant, and I know I talk about how he's
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: a chemistry killer. I don't like him in the lineup,
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: But that was a reverse injured player spot. You know,
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: when your star player comes back, he has to get
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: used to playing again. The team has to get used
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: to their roles again with him back. The line usually
• 55:10
  Speaker 1: over adjusts him coming back, so it's all a very
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: bad situation. But usually you get that game under your
• 55:16
  Speaker 1: belt and you get it out of the way, you
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: usually play a lot better in the next game. And
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: John Morant, I mean, he was taking a lot of
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: shots in that game and he was off. He had
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: a bad shooting game. He put up some numbers kind
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: of but like I think he did have a double
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: double in the game. I think he went twenty ten
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: even between points and assists, but his shooting percentage was
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: horrific in the game. So I think Memphis is gonna
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: have a much bigger, much better performance this time. Man,
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: So we are gonna go with Memphis. The market Reid
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: I believe does agree with this as well. Or it was.
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: It's not now it was. Don't care. It's a spot play.
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: My NBA has been good over the years, so we're
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: gonna do it again. I faded the market yesterday and
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: we got a blowout win with the Nets, so Clippers
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: down for five and to four and a half year.
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: They got sixty four percent of the cash right now,
• 56:03
  Speaker 1: though with eighty percent of the tickets on the Grizzlies,
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: I think that might be more of a numbers thing. Again,
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna disagree with the numbers guys, when I see
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: a strong situation like this, especially the situation screams Memphis
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: in this game to me. But yes, again, I did
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: say that it's a situation where the number guys are
• 56:21
  Speaker 1: just not going to agree with it. But these players
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: are not robots, man. The situation matters more than the number.
• 56:28
  Speaker 1: This is not just all math and computers, you know
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: what I mean. Human behavior is a huge element here.
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: I'm an Austrian, Austrian economist, praxeological handicapper is what I
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: call myself. So it matters, it matters big. It's been
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: successful for me, so we're doing it here. Again. I
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: think the professional money off it is coming in on
• 56:50
  Speaker 1: the Clippers. It is just because the number looks weird,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: right Like, if you look at the records, you think
• 56:56
  Speaker 1: Memphis is the better team. The oddsmakers are telling you
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: that they're not. But this is one of the rare
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: situations where I think the situation is really strong and
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: in disagreement with it. So Memphis is the play in
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: that one. So there it is. Remix Doctor loved to
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: calling calling Doctor loved to calling Doctor Doctor Toad for
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: a new intro. Maybe I mean, I don't know, I
• 57:26
  Speaker 1: mean I might have to uh, there might be some
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: copyright issue there. Clippers have to see the grand children. Yeah,
• 57:35
  Speaker 1: James Harden probably has a bunch. Is the vague and
• 57:38
  Speaker 1: gambling like the zeros on the roulette table? No, because
• 57:42
  Speaker 1: in roulette there's no way that you can give yourself
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: an edge. I mean in theory sort of like it's
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: the way that the that the odds makers will try
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: to give themselves, uh the edge, and in the most
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: for the most part, it does. But that's because the
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: public better is a stupid So in roulette there's absolutely
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: no way for you to get an edge. It's complete luck.
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: The odds are literally what they are. It's entirely probability
• 58:10
  Speaker 1: for sports betting. No, and because of what I just said,
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: like you can use skill to win long term and
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: sports betting, because it's really hard to quantify human behavior,
• 58:20
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean, Like a roulette weell literally
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: the odds just are what they are and that's it.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: There's nothing else about it. But with sports, there are
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: angles that you can find all over the place that
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: might not be accounted for or accounted for enough, or
• 58:35
  Speaker 1: stuff being over accounted for. In sports, what the odds
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: makers are trying to do is they're trying to collect
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: the vigue in most cases, where their goal is to
• 58:43
  Speaker 1: split the action fifty to fifty on each side of
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: a bet, so that either if either result happens, they're
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: gonna win based off of just the vigue. But it
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: just it doesn't work like I mean, it does work
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: like that in that the public is so stupid that
• 59:00
  Speaker 1: the casinos still win long term because the public doesn't
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: know how to beat them. But it is beatable if
• 59:05
  Speaker 1: you know what you're doing, which I mean I think
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: I've proven that over the course of almost two decades,
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: and there are professional betters out there that have proven
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: that as well. That's why professional get professional sports betting exists.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: There's no such thing as a professional roulette better because
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: it's impossible to win long term and roulette it is
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: certainly possible to do it in sports, and that's why
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: casinos will kick you out if you're winning sports better.
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: They're not gonna kick you out if you play roulette
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: all the time because you can never beat it. So
• 59:36
  Speaker 1: it's like playing slots. You can't beat slots either, you
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: know what I mean, So the casinos will not kick
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: out winning poker players though, usually because you're taking money
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: from like the other players at the poker table, you
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So the casinos will take a
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: rake always, but if you're good enough at poker, you
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: can overcome the rake and you're you know, usually it
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: takes a little bit less actually to overcome the rake
• 1:00:01
  Speaker 1: because you just have to beat like your opponents in poker,
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: you know what I mean. So definitely you can win
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: at poker as well, and there are guys that do
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: that too, although I think poker there might be a
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: little bit more luck involved than there is in sports betting,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: if like, if you know what you're doing. I don't know.
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: I've done both, but I only did poker for like
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: two years, so I don't know. I wasn't really professional
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: at it. It was just like a side thing while
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: I was in college, so I don't know. And then
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: then the government banned it, and then that's when I
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: started doing sports betting, although it was at sites that
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: we're not allowed to talk about here. But now it
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: is legal here, but online poker is still not legalized,
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: I mean relegalized. Maybe there's hope that online poker will
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 1: come back, I mean it should. It was a booming industry. Man,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: I don't know, Like poker got a huge boom with
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: the amateurs starting to win the main event at the
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: World Series of Poker with Chris Moneymaker, which is actually
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: his name. I know we're living in a simulation, but
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 1: he was the first amateur to win the World Series
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: of Poker main event, and after he did, the field
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: blew up, and then amateur's won almost every single one
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: since then because there are just too many that flooded
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: the field. But poker was massive, like back between three
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: to seven or whatever, so like basically while I was
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: in college. Then it got banned like at its peak.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: The government decided to ban on my poker, which is
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 1: really really kind of insane when you think about it.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: All Right, let's talk about the NFL here, the rule
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: that dealer can give you an edge. I don't know,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: can they rig the roulette wheel? Maybe maybe there's some
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: rigging going on. I think state lotteries are rigged, but
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: that's a different story. State lotteries. If you look into it,
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: extremely high percentage of state lottery winners are politically connected individuals. Okay,
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 1: let's go to the NFL game here. I mean I
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: talked about on my show the other night. My thoughts
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 1: on this really have not change. It's Dolphins at Steelers.
• 1:02:06
  Speaker 1: I don't have a play on this one, but I
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: don't really like the spot for Pittsburgh here. Pittsburgh is
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: coming off a big win man at Baltimore. Pittsburgh Baltimore,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: we know. I mean, that's a rivalry that goes way back.
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 1: Those teams really don't like each other more often than not.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: It's a close game and it was playoff revenge for Pittsburgh.
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: This was the first time these two teams matched up
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: this year. Baltimore eliminated Pittsburgh last year from the playoffs
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: in Baltimore, and it was pretty embarrassing. It was a
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 1: double digit easy win for Baltimore, win and cover. It
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: was the only game between these two teams that was
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: a win by margin I think over the last multiple years.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: Big win for Pittsburgh there. And it was at the
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: scene of the crime too. It was at Baltimore, so
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: even bigger. But Baltimore was the favorite here and if
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, it was misleading.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Like I talked about the other night, Baltimore outgained Pittsburgh
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: by over one hundred yards in the game, they outfirst
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 1: down them twenty two to thirteen. They outpossessed them by
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: over seven minutes, seven and a half minutes, basically, So
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: how do they lose the game? And they had one turnover,
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: which isn't really that significant, but Baltimore should not have
• 1:03:15
  Speaker 1: lost this game. And we know that they also kind
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: of got screwed by the refs at the end of
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: that game. With that likely which I thought was likely
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: a touchdown, I thought he caught it, man, I thought
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: he had it in his possession, both feet didn't even
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: I don't even think he needed Do you need both
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: feet down? I guess that is still the rule. But
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: he was in the middle of the end zone, so
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: he really just had to maintain possession of it because
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: his feet were gonna be down, and then the ball
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: got swatted out of his hand. But I think he
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: had it, man, I think it was a touchdown. Bad call.
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: So now Pittsburgh's coming up of all that, And yes,
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: maybe they'll be motivated because people are saying they shouldn't
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: have won that game, but I think more than likely,
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: more than likely, Hey likely again pun intended all over
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 1: the place. I think it is a letdown spot. Man,
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 1: that was just too significant of a win for them,
• 1:04:03
  Speaker 1: and it gave them sole possession of first place in
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 1: the division. I know, Baltimore won, so Pittsburgh has to
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 1: keep pace with them here, but Pittsburgh does now own
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 1: the tiebreaker for Baltimore. So if Pittsburgh loses this game
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 1: and they fall into another tie with Baltimore, Pittsburgh is
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: still atop the division because they have the tie breaker,
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: So that's big. Next week they got the Detroit Lions,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: which is kind of a bigger game too, and then
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 1: they finish it off with divisional games against Cleveland, although
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: it is Cleveland and Baltimore. So this Miami game is
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 1: really the game that means the least on Pittsburgh's remanny schedule.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: For Miami, I know, Miami's kind of the hype everybody's
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 1: talking about. Oh, I mean, Miami's gonna make the playoffs. Man.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: They won four games in a row, and yeah, I
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 1: mean the last three wins were against Washington where they
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: shouldn't have even won the game. They barely beat New
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 1: Orleans and then they although they were winning that game
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: by more, I guess it was a little bit of
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 1: a misleading result there they were. They won that game
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 1: more easily than it looks like, and then they did
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 1: crush the Jets, but it's still the Jets. So, I mean,
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 1: their last three wins are all against bad teams, so
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 1: they are stepping up in class to face what I
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: think is a mediocre Pittsburgh team here. But the thing
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: is it is on the road. So and I worry
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 1: about that from Miami, which I'm gonna talk about in
• 1:05:19
  Speaker 1: a second. I did already talk about it the other night. Now,
• 1:05:24
  Speaker 1: Miami doesn't need to win, like if they think they're
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: gonna have a chance of making the playoffs, they gotta
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 1: keep winning every single week. But that's better when you're
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: an underdog, you know what I mean, Like when you're
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: a favorite and the oddsmakers have to push in the
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 1: line in your direction and you're gonna be overvalued. That's
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: not a team that you want to look at, you
• 1:05:41
  Speaker 1: know what I mean with Miami, even though they're must
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: win their road underdog here. So if you think a
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 1: team is gonna give you effort and they're an underdog,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 1: that's a different situation totally than being an overvalued team
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 1: with all the pressure on you. You know what I mean, Like,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: I think Miami right now they're just kind of playing
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 1: loose because I don't think they legit untimately think they
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: can make the playoffs. I think they will show up
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: for this. It's a Monday night game, and you know
• 1:06:05
  Speaker 1: I talk about that when a team is possibly dead,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: like Miami kind of still is. They will show up
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: for a Monday night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. You know.
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: Now my issue with it because I lean to Miami
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: plus the points in this game. But I got an issue,
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: and that is the weather. And I think it is
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 1: significant given what this matchup is. It's not gonna be
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: as bad as it looked. At least it looked like
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: the forecast was saying it was gonna be in the
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: teens nineteen degrees. It looks like it's gonna be twenty
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: two now. But that's not that much of a difference. Man.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be a night game, and I'm still seeing
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 1: reports saying it's gonna be like minus seven degrees win show.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: So it is gonna be real cold still, and Tua
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: is not good at cold weather. Miami. They don't adapt
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: well to the cold, Tua, especially Miami with two other
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: own five. I believe both straight up and against the
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: spread in freezing weather games, and this game is gonna
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: be the coldest one that I think they participated in,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: other than the one in Kansas City in the playoffs
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago that was just unbelievably cold,
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: which was the same game where those guys died outside
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: of that guy's house in the cold. You remember that,
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: Like they were all drinking and then I don't know
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: what happened, and three guys died. You guys remember that
• 1:07:27
  Speaker 1: that was during that Kansas City game because I know
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: it was in the Kansas City area and they were
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: at the guy's house to watch the game and probably
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: drink and do drugs and bad things happen. But yes,
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: but Miami did not adapt to the cold well in
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: that game. I gave out Kansas City as a play
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: in that game on the show, even though Kansas City
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: was kind of a public side there. I worry about
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: Miami and the cold man. I'll probably pick them in
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: my pick'ems, even though again I already used up my
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: PI five and I went three and two, so I'm
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: satisfied with that, so I don't have to use my
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: I can't use Miami, but I'm already done with it anyway,
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: so I don't need to didn't really want to anyway.
• 1:08:11
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna go eight and eight if I lose this
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 1: one in my main pick them where you have to
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: pick every game, though, so I'd prefer to not go
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: eight and eight on a board that I really liked
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: this this week, but it's the way that it is.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: It's three and a half on ESPN. Pigs can pick them,
• 1:08:26
  Speaker 1: so you're getting the better of the key number of
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: three of you pick Miami there. So I'm gonna still
• 1:08:33
  Speaker 1: do it, but I worry. I worry about the cold
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 1: in this one. Man slightly in to Miami in this
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: one for me. You'll be able to get three and
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: a half on them if you really want to play. Miami.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 1: Steelers are up to three minus one twenty here three
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: with juice. Probably three and a half's are out there
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: by game time. They will be because the public will
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 1: come in on the Steelers. For the most part, sixty
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets, sixty percent of the cash on
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: them for now total, not a whole lot going on.
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: Sixty one percent of the tickets, fifteen percent of the
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 1: cash on the over it actually went up a little
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: bit to forty two and a half. I think the
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: under does make sense in this one. I mean, both
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: defenses are not good though Miami's defense is real bad
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: and Pittsburgh's defense is overrated because people always think, oh
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: Steelers defense, they got TJ. Watt, they always play defense,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: but that's not really the case. Their defense has been
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: really poor this year, like well below average. But all
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: that being said, I think the cold impacts the offense
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: is more than like if it was snowing or if
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 1: it was like a slick surface. A slick surface actually
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 1: kind of helps the offense because the defense can't react
• 1:09:39
  Speaker 1: fast enough, you know what I mean. It affects their
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 1: reaction time and they slip. But when it's just cold,
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 1: the cold effects like the quarterbacks throwing the football, you
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: know what I mean. So the cold is worse. It
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: affects throwing, kicking, you know. So I think it is
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: going to be more of a run based game here.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 1: But I think that also helps the Dolphins because the
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: Dolphins I believe gonna have eight chan back in this game.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: I know he's been dealing with some injuries. I think
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: he will play. But even when he was out. Whoever
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: the guy was who filled in for him the other
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: game looked really good. So the Dolphins they can definitely
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 1: still run the football. The Steelers really do not have
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 1: a good rushing attack, man. I mean, who are their
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: runners like Jalen Warren and gain Well And I've gained
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 1: Well on my fantasy team, by the way, it's one
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: of my bench running backs and I might have to
• 1:10:27
  Speaker 1: use him in the playoffs because Woody Marx might be hurt.
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, but I've Jonathan Taylor and Rico Dowd also,
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: who knows. I lost my homes though, so isn't that great.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: I'm on a bye week and I lose my fantasy
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 1: quarterback to a torn acl Fuck you, Oh my god.
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna dude. All I have to do is win
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 1: one game and then I'm at least in the money
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: here and I'm probably gonna lose. I have to pick
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: up a quarterback, and it's gonna be an entirely match
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 1: up base. I have to look at who the available
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks are. There aren't that many in my league because
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: it's a competitive league, and people who quarterbacks, even the
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: people that are out of the playoffs they're trying to
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 1: win the consolation round or whatever so they don't get
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 1: the booby prize. So I'm gonna it's gonna be slim
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: pickens at quarterback, man, Like, what the fuck am I
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 1: gonna do? Pick up Philip Rivers? Probably, man, there's probably
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: somebody better than that. But still it's bad. It is
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: bad times, man, So we'll see what I can do.
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 1: I gotta look at it tomorrow. I gotta figure out
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: what I'm gonna do for quarterback. But anyway, lean to
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: the Dolphins here, and I would slightly lean to the
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 1: under in this game as well, because I think the
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: teams are gonna try to run the ball more in
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 1: this very cold environment. And that's it. Finally, over an
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 1: hour here on a small board, there you go. Who
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 1: all right? My voice? Man, ah, throw the ball and
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: hit half of the I don't know. I don't know
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: how the roulette deal or actually like like does it.
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: But I mean they spin the wheel and then they
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: let go the wheel, so I don't know how they
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: could really determine that unless the wheel itself is rigged.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: Eagles could have scored but got stopped. I did not
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: like the over in that game at all I would.
• 1:12:11
  Speaker 1: I'm not playing overs in any Eagles game at all.
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: That Eagles offense is pathetic. Like I didn't expect the
• 1:12:17
  Speaker 1: Eagles to score thirty or whatever, but I thought that
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 1: game was gonna be nowhere close to an over. But
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: the Eagles were getting real greedy anyway. So dude, who
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 1: the fuck goes? Who goes for it on fourth down
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 1: when you're up thirty one points? Thirty one and nothing?
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 1: Just an asshole move by Siriani. Man, it's it just
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: makes absolutely no sense. Fuck him for that. Syriani with
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: his gay ear ring. If you if you've seen what
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 1: he looked like when he was a wide receiver or
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: whatever in college. I can't stand that guy. He sucks.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: Fuck Sirianni fucked the Eagles. Fuck the Philly fan base.
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 1: They're probably the worst fan base in all of sports.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 1: A bunch of drunken, violent morons. Steelers by one hundred,
• 1:13:03
  Speaker 1: that's not gonna happen. What's yeah, the story about the
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: guy's freezing in the yard, I have no idea. Dude.
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: I think the homeowner, I think absolutely at least he
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: at the very least he knew what was going on,
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: and he lied because he knew that he was allowing
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 1: all of that to happen in his house, and he
• 1:13:22
  Speaker 1: probably should have been charged with something last place Booby Prize.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: It's the Saco the Saco Trophy. I don't even know
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 1: what it is this year. Actually, I don't have to
• 1:13:36
  Speaker 1: worry about it because I'm in the playoffs, but I
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: don't know. I forget exactly what it is. It's usually
• 1:13:41
  Speaker 1: something not crazy this time, though, like I don't I
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: forget what we even do now, like because everybody's all
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: over the country and it's kind of like, I don't know,
• 1:13:48
  Speaker 1: we can't really do that much physically or in person anymore.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: For a while, the winner of the Winner of the
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: Consolation got to choose the location of the of the
• 1:14:00
  Speaker 1: Person Draft the next year, because everybody thought it was like, oh,
• 1:14:03
  Speaker 1: we're just gonna go back to Vegas again to do
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: it or whatever, and I got it in this one
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: year and I was like, we're gonna do it in
• 1:14:10
  Speaker 1: because I wanted to like fuck everybody, because I was like,
• 1:14:13
  Speaker 1: if you're not gonna be at the draft, I want
• 1:14:14
  Speaker 1: a competitive advantage. So I'm like, if you're not gonna
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: be at the draft, then you lose baby. So I
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: was like, I'm gonna pick some place that nobody's gonna
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: want to go to and like half the league will
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 1: like not show up. But the league basically just voted
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: against me, like we're not gonna allow this. I said,
• 1:14:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do We're gonna do it in Alaska. But
• 1:14:36
  Speaker 1: I was nice. I was like, we're gonna do it
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: in like Anchorage, I think. I was like, we'll do
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: it in the biggest city in Alaska. Come on, there'll
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: be stuff to do, like you can get there. People
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: were like, no, we're not doing that. Like okay, I
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 1: tried and that was the end of that whole thing.
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 1: But yes, but my league is so competitive that everybody's
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 1: just trying to win anyway, even in the consolation, which
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: is really bad because I'm I was only carrying Mahomes
• 1:15:04
  Speaker 1: at quarterback and nobody else. So I don't know in Maine.
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: Maine would be closer to me, like northern Maine in
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 1: the middle of nowhere. That would have been even more
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 1: strategic because it's really hard to get to some of
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: those places. We'll have it on the top of one
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 1: of the mountains. Not a fan of Siriane, all right,
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it, man. My plays today, long show
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 1: for not a huge board here. College basketball Alabama A
• 1:15:31
  Speaker 1: and M plus the points. NBA Houston Rockets plus the point,
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: point and a half, two points whatever, Memphis Grizzlies plus
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 1: the points as well. Those are the three plays. That's it.
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: Let's have another winning day, Let's have a good Monday.
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 1: Let's keep it going, man, learn it town on Twitter.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: Got subscriptions there now if you'd like to subscribe. Jeffrey
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: is a subscriber, one of two. Thank you, Jeffrey. Uh.
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: He's in my group chat that I have for subscribers,
• 1:15:59
  Speaker 1: and the other guy he hasn't updated as x. So
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 1: it's just us and there's not a lot going on
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: in there right now. I'm gonna I'm gonna do some
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: subscriber posts soon, all right. I'm gonna get some Yuke
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: stuff up there and whatever. Maybe bring back some old
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 1: Yuke stuff. This is not on Twitter anymore. I gotta
• 1:16:13
  Speaker 1: figure it out, but I'll post some subscriber stuff. Gotta
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 1: do it, man, Like subscribe to the show here of course.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 1: Give me good comments. Listen on audio iTunes or Apple Spotify, whatever.
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 1: Give me good reviews over there, covered in Yuke is
• 1:16:28
  Speaker 1: my yuke channel on YouTube. You can check that out
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 1: Pagereon dot com, slash learned to Own and there's a
• 1:16:34
  Speaker 1: bonus yuke Spotify v there and you can do yuke
• 1:16:37
  Speaker 1: requests there that I will never get around to. Gotta
• 1:16:41
  Speaker 1: get back on there and at least check. I gotta update,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: at least get the Christmas ones up there that I
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: haven't done yet to match what I have up on
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: my other stuff. Uh. Loser Cast, Uh, we're back tomorrow
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 1: with episode three. You can check that out. It'll be
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: on the loser Cast YouTube at I think ten pm
• 1:16:59
  Speaker 1: Eastern A through Legion of Skanks. We are the Legion
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 1: of Skanks after party man, so go check that out.
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: The Giants podcast that I'm doing with Ben has not
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: started yet. I mean, he said something about having to
• 1:17:11
  Speaker 1: get his set up like in working order. I don't
• 1:17:13
  Speaker 1: know what's going on exactly, but I'm assuming I'm gonna
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: hear from him at some point. But me as a
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: Jackson Dart fan and Ben is a Giants fan, it
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: is not good times right now, so I don't know.
• 1:17:25
  Speaker 1: Maybe it's still be fun to just have a show
• 1:17:27
  Speaker 1: where we're, you know, just ranting about how bad the
• 1:17:32
  Speaker 1: Giants are, But I don't know my lean was correct
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 1: in the game yesterday. I said Washington was my opinion
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: in that game, so I did get that one correct.
• 1:17:41
  Speaker 1: Isn't that great that my two weakest opinions on Washington
• 1:17:44
  Speaker 1: and the Rams were both correct yesterday and some of
• 1:17:46
  Speaker 1: my strongest ones were wrong. That's awesome. I love when
• 1:17:49
  Speaker 1: that happens. That's gonna do it for now. Thanks for
• 1:17:52
  Speaker 1: hanging out everybody. I'll be back tomorrow morning and peace.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: And we have more college football bowls tomorrow as well.
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: The Bulls start up again. There's one tomorrow and then
• 1:18:02
  Speaker 1: the one that I really like on Wednesday or that
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: we missed the best number on them, but I might
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 1: give it out as a play anyway. We'll see. But
• 1:18:09
  Speaker 1: hopefully the line at least goes back up a little
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: and gives us some more value. So yeah, Giants, the
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 1: fans are just not showing up for that. They should
• 1:18:16
  Speaker 1: give Jackson Dart something though, man, I mean, come on, man,
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 1: show up for Jackson Dart at least until he gets
• 1:18:23
  Speaker 1: you know, until his career ends because he gets too
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: many concussions. That's gonna ruin my prediction. I said Dart
• 1:18:30
  Speaker 1: was the best of this draft class. I think I
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 1: was right about that, but he's taken too many hits. Man,
• 1:18:35
  Speaker 1: He's got to listen to Gruden. John Gruden should be
• 1:18:38
  Speaker 1: the new coach of the New York Giants. Bring him in.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 1: He'll have to move from Florida, though, to cold Weather
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 1: as an old man, so I don't know older at least,
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: but that would be awesome. He loves Jackson Dart, so
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: come on, man, coach Jackson Dart, tell him to not
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: take as many hits and tell Scataboo that as well.
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: Giants should be an improved team next year, though, I'm
• 1:19:00
  Speaker 1: and they're losing a fair amount of close games this year,
• 1:19:02
  Speaker 1: so alright, we'll we'll see. But that's gonna do it
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 1: for now. Peace until tomorrow, mhm.