Latest / Crosstabs / Statewide and Congressional Primaries

Transcript

Statewide and Congressional Primaries · Crosstabs

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_03: We're clear to engage.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_03: Time on target.
• 0:02
  SPEAKER_03: Five mikes.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: all right everybody welcome to crosstabs the first episode i'm uh reagan knope a
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: political consultant living in albany and my co-host is here brian iverson he's a
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: political consultant and a advisor in prineville how are you doing this morning i
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: guess it's this afternoon brian yeah well you know who knows when people listen to
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_02: the podcast so we'll have to just go with uh
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_02: Today.
• 0:44
  SPEAKER_02: Today I'm doing great, Reagan.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_02: We're excited to, I think,
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  SPEAKER_02: try out this new venture into crosstabs and really kind of dive a little bit deeper
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_02: into politics in Oregon,
• 0:57
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_02: is where our focus is going to be.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_02: I think we'll dive into other interesting political theater that we see throughout
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_02: the country,
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:06
  SPEAKER_02: as we,
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_02: as it kind of comes throughout this year,
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_02: especially this election year.
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, I think there's so many people talking about Trump Biden.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_02: I, I kind of feel like we're going to leave that alone, but, uh,
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_02: I do like us to maybe dive into some, you know, U.S.
• 1:21
  SPEAKER_02: Senate race.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_02: There's some races that are going to be just super interesting around the country because,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: like,
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  SPEAKER_02: what,
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_02: one or two?
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_02: Is it two votes?
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_02: One vote?
• 1:30
  SPEAKER_02: One vote in the U.S.
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  SPEAKER_00: Senate?
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's 51-49 right now,
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: so it only takes one to tie it up with the vice president and then two to flip the chamber.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: But we need two is what you're telling me.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, you really want to be safe.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: You really don't.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: You don't really want to count on because the presidential race is going to be a
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: brawl down to the finish and probably going to be a couple thousand votes in a
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  SPEAKER_00: couple of states.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: And you want to make sure your Senate majority is is solid and no one can mess with it.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: So I think,
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  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: the thing I'm thinking about with crosstabs,
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: right,
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: we should probably explain that when you get a poll,
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_00: you get two pieces of the poll.
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  SPEAKER_00: You get the top line, which is basically the summary of the results.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: But then you've got the crosstabs and the crosstabs take your questions and break them out by groups.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: And it could be where the people live, how old they are, their party, their gender, all that stuff.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so it sort of gets into the nitty gritty to kind of see what people are
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_00: thinking because they don't act like a monolith.
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  SPEAKER_00: The Republican and Democratic parties don't operate like a monolith.
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  SPEAKER_00: Different age and gender voters have different priorities.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's kind of what we're going to get into is there's all this subject matter,
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: all this political talk that happens between the lobbyists,
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: the staff,
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  SPEAKER_00: the legislators,
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  SPEAKER_00: all these different people.
• 2:46
  SPEAKER_00: And a lot of it is widely known information that you can figure out.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: But it's just not you never see it or you hardly see any of it in journalism, except from time to time.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: So it's really hard to stay informed.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: and get all this information and stay informed without somebody to teach you.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so,
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  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
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  SPEAKER_00: that's what I've tried to do back when I started blogging and tweeting about all
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: this stuff.
• 3:07
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to get a level deeper on the political talk.
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  SPEAKER_00: And I think,
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  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: you and I have some qualities that were uniquely kind of qualified and plugged in
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  SPEAKER_00: to talk about some of this stuff.
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  SPEAKER_00: We'll have some guests, I think, that will be plugged in.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_02: If anybody can come on and we can convince anybody, but we'll see.
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  SPEAKER_00: My goal is once we break 10 listeners,
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  SPEAKER_00: maybe we can get a guest,
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  SPEAKER_00: but I've been pitching it to a few people and I think they're going to come on.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, good.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah, that'd be great.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_02: And I think we'll get some experts every now and again as well that.
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  SPEAKER_02: we can convince hopefully to beyond just being a guest and talking about maybe their,
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_02: their campaign or what they're working on.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_02: But I think some experts that we consider to be experts in their respective fields,
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  SPEAKER_02: I think that's going to add a certain amount of levity to this stuff.
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  SPEAKER_02: And,
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  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: the national,
• 3:59
  SPEAKER_02: I guess the cycle that we're in right now with this kind of the national politics
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_02: that's playing out is going to affect Oregon.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_02: And,
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  SPEAKER_02: I think we're going to dive into that first initially today,
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_02: and then we'll kind of move into the state legislative stuff,
• 4:13
  SPEAKER_02: which you and I are probably intimately familiar with,
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_02: with our work there in the Senate and the House,
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_02: and then
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_02: We'll definitely dive into local races.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_02: I love local races.
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know about Reagan.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_02: I know you work on some school board stuff and, you know, fire, fire boards and levees.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_02: And, you know, I mean, I, I just love speed bumps in front of your house, man.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, there's nothing more personal, uh,
• 4:37
  SPEAKER_02: than a local school board race.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_02: We were both in some pretty hotly contested ones a year ago,
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  SPEAKER_02: really about this time,
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_02: which turned out,
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
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  SPEAKER_02: we both won,
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_02: which was kind of nice for both of us.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_02: But those local races can be very interesting and they can be very telling on where
• 4:58
  SPEAKER_02: a community is pointed and going.
• 5:00
  SPEAKER_02: So I would love to deep dive further into that stuff as we move through the summer as well.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it sounds like you've already planned a couple more episodes for us.
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: So I guess we'll have to do this more than once.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_02: I've never been told that I'm afraid to say a few things.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_02: So I think I got lots to say.
• 5:19
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that should make for a pretty good podcast, Brian.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: So I want to kind of do the thing,
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: and I'm trying to think of a new word to do this,
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: but goodness gracious,
• 5:26
  SPEAKER_00: in the legislature,
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: you hear the term level set often,
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: and it really makes you want to die because of how often you hear it.
• 5:33
  SPEAKER_00: But we do need to set a foundation.
• 5:37
  SPEAKER_00: a baseline for what we're talking about.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: So we've got these May primaries.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: So the May primary is held technically on the 21st.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's the third Tuesday, I think is how it is set.
• 5:51
  SPEAKER_00: So every third Tuesday in May of even numbered years, you have a primary election.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that primary election is primarily for the Republicans,
• 5:59
  SPEAKER_00: the Democrats,
• 6:00
  SPEAKER_00: but there's some nonpartisan races that will appear on these ballots.
• 6:04
  SPEAKER_00: Local districts can put levies on these ballots for funding and stuff like that.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: And the race really doesn't happen.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have the election day in Oregon.
• 6:13
  SPEAKER_00: We've got election weeks in Oregon.
• 6:15
  SPEAKER_00: And so those ballots I just pulled up.
• 6:18
  SPEAKER_00: the Secretary of State's website,
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: and they've got their elections calendar and they plan this,
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
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  SPEAKER_00: a couple of years in advance.
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  SPEAKER_00: The first day to mail ballots to voters is Wednesday, May 1st.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: So really the election starts May 1st.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that's like a week from today if you're keeping track of when we're paying attention to that.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: But May 1st when the election starts and then the election ends seven days after
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_00: May 21st with the ballots that have the postmark on them.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: So really we've got a month.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we can talk about that.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: It really had 30 days from May 21st to certify the ballot.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: So there's basically a month-long election in May, and then we do it again in November, right?
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're just getting started campaigning,
• 7:05
  SPEAKER_00: you are already done because you should have had your plans set.
• 7:10
  SPEAKER_00: In another state,
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  SPEAKER_00: you could start campaigning the month before Election Day maybe and be okay,
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: but here in Oregon,
• 7:14
  SPEAKER_00: you have to have your plans ready to go.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: And so these campaigns have been planning, even though nobody's paying attention to elections.
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: I kid you not.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: Hardly anybody is paying attention to elections.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: They will finally pay attention when they get their ballots.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
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  SPEAKER_00: But the campaigns have been at this for months and months if they're good.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: So.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: let's talk about all the big races and when i say big races i think of statewide
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: positions because there's just some gigantic turnover in the statewide positions
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: and then also congress with a couple of key congressional races so
• 7:53
  SPEAKER_00: The statewide, you've got Secretary of State, State Treasurer, and Attorney General.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_00: So the current Secretary of State, LaVon Griffin-Lavod, is not running.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: She was appointed to fill disgraced Secretary of State Shamia Fagan's role.
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  SPEAKER_00: And she committed not to run again.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: And so that is an open seat.
• 8:14
  SPEAKER_00: Treasurer is currently Tobias Reed.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's termed out.
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  SPEAKER_00: So term limits apply to every statewide position except attorney general,
• 8:22
  SPEAKER_00: strangely enough,
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: because attorney general,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: I believe,
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: is created in statute,
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: not in the Constitution.
• 8:26
  SPEAKER_00: Fun fact for you, Brian.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then the attorney general, Ellen Rosenblum, is not seeking reelection.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: So these three positions are up.
• 8:36
  SPEAKER_00: And because we're a Democrat dominated state,
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: this is really a big opportunity,
• 8:40
  SPEAKER_00: mostly for the Democrats.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see in November how close the Republican candidates can make it.
• 8:45
  SPEAKER_00: But for the primaries,
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: at least,
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: these are hard fought primaries amongst Democrats because they're hoping that the
• 8:50
  SPEAKER_00: voter registration edge really puts them at an advantage.
• 8:54
  SPEAKER_00: So what I want to do, Brian, is I just want to talk you through.
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_00: I'll give you the list of the candidates and then you can kind of tell me how you
• 9:01
  SPEAKER_00: think those races are playing out.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then I'll tell you if you got anything wrong.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_00: So, okay, so for Secretary of State, you really got two key candidates.
• 9:13
  SPEAKER_00: And,
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 9:14
  SPEAKER_00: we can mention the also-rans,
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: but there's really two candidates that are competing for this spot.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_00: It's Tobias Reed, who is the current state treasurer.
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: and James Manning, who's a state senator from the Eugene area.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: So tell me,
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: what you think about the primary as it's gone so far for Tobias Reed and James Manning,
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: and what each of them would need to do maybe down the stretch to put themselves in
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: a position to win this race.
• 9:41
  SPEAKER_02: My first initial thought is if you kind of look at just the landscape of it,
• 9:45
  SPEAKER_02: you got to maybe give the nod to Tobias Reed,
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_02: He's been...
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_02: From the Democrat standpoint,
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_02: I think that that we have to really just the guy's been on the ballot a couple of times,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_02: been a Democrat primary for governor.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_02: So Democrats have definitely seen this guy on the ballot numerous times statewide,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_02: not just in a smaller district or what have you.
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_02: I think that.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_02: It's pretty well respected.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think anybody's really kind of been out there saying that Tobias Reed sucks or,
• 10:21
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 10:23
  SPEAKER_02: quite frankly,
• 10:24
  SPEAKER_02: that could be his downside is also that he's kind of not really outspoken.
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_02: He's kind of just to go along, get along kind of Democrat and
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_02: Quite frankly,
• 10:35
  SPEAKER_02: in the world of Democrats,
• 10:36
  SPEAKER_02: that is not usually a way to get elected in the Democrat Party today,
• 10:40
  SPEAKER_02: especially in a Democrat primary.
• 10:43
  SPEAKER_02: And we'll see that when we start talking about the congressional races is,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: the further left you can go.
• 10:50
  SPEAKER_02: You know, they're running they're running so far to the left.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_02: I think they're about ready to condemn Israel any second now.
• 10:58
  SPEAKER_02: But I haven't seen that out of Tobias.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_02: I think Tobias has been a, I think, respected treasurer for the most part.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think that people haven't there hasn't been a lot of negativity coming out of that office.
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_02: So I think there's some stuff there.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: On the other side of that coin, you look at Senator Manning.
• 11:18
  SPEAKER_02: Again, not a whole bunch of super far left kind of stuff coming out of there.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_02: Not a lot of raising of money either.
• 11:28
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I'm not seeing one of these guys running away with millions of dollars in the bank either.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_02: So I don't know.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_02: why we're not seeing one emerge.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_02: And I think it's because they're really not talking about what voters really care
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: about with secretary of state's race right now.
• 11:45
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_02: and I think,
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know why they're not talking about the corruption in the secretary of
• 11:50
  SPEAKER_02: state's office,
• 11:51
  SPEAKER_02: why they're not trying to talk about the,
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_02: all the stuff that happened with Lamoda and Shamia Fagan and that office,
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_02: like they should be
• 12:01
  SPEAKER_02: on it and just saying,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_02: I've heard him say,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: Tobias,
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_02: say restoring some law,
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_02: restoring some good faith and stuff like that.
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: But I would be way more hammering that down.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_02: So the way it sounds,
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_02: if you were to say the election held today,
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: I think Tobias,
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_02: you'd probably win 60,
• 12:16
  40.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: I would imagine.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_02: On the other.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know, Reagan, what am I right or wrong?
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: No, I think you're right.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: I think to the extent that I think Tobias Reid is running as a more traditional
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: establishment getter done Democrat.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to be he's much more focused on policy.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: He's not the type of guy that goes out there.
• 12:40
  SPEAKER_00: and is throwing out fiery tweets in press releases.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that matches his personality.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think what you see is what you get with Tobias Reid.
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_00: And I think my experience with James Manning is he's pretty well generally
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: respected in the Senate and also that way.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think
• 12:59
  SPEAKER_00: Because he's trying to do this,
• 13:01
  SPEAKER_00: he's trying to do a little bit of I'm the more progressive guy,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_00: but he doesn't seem to be putting in the full effort.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I just looked.
• 13:08
  SPEAKER_00: His cash on hand is $67,000.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's not going to buy you more than 50 seconds of airtime in Portland.
• 13:16
  SPEAKER_00: That's one ad, basically.
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_00: So...
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: I think because he's sort of trying to play a part that he's not really experienced in playing.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: He's not a far, he's not a traditionally, you know, far left flamethrowing Democrat.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_00: It's just not working for him.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: And so, you know, he gets to stay in his Senate seat.
• 13:35
  SPEAKER_00: This probably helps him build some name ID,
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: meets a few more people,
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: go around the state,
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: and maybe he thinks it's going to build him an opportunity later on.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: But I would definitely give the advantage to Tobias Reid, who
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: According to or star has about a half a mil on the bank,
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_00: which is a little easier,
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: a little easier to breathe and buy some ads and stuff with that,
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 13:52
  SPEAKER_00: with that kind of cash.
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 13:53
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: generally I think target Democrats are really going to hate this race in,
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 13:58
  SPEAKER_00: 15 days or so.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: Cause I think it'll really start to heat up a little bit, but they probably are conservative cash.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_02: Imagine a lot of text messaging and stuff like that,
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_02: that they're probably doing to those targeted for,
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_02: for Democrats and stuff.
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_02: That makes sense.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_02: But I mean, with a half a million, you truly have to give the edge.
• 14:15
  SPEAKER_02: You know, there's one thing that you can look at primary victories, the true thing, and it's money.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I know it was a 96%, I think, of all primary winners usually raised and spent more money.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_02: So, I mean, that's probably one thing that we can look at.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_02: That's why, of course, today we'll talk about raising money.
• 14:36
  SPEAKER_02: So half a million is pretty decent for that race in a primary.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think that, you know, Shamia Fagan, when she came in and won that primary –
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_02: A few years ago,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 14:46
  SPEAKER_02: she didn't really come in late with a ton of union money and just dumped it hard
• 14:51
  SPEAKER_02: where I think she really turned the tide late in that race.
• 14:55
  SPEAKER_02: So that's pretty interesting.
• 14:58
  SPEAKER_02: On the other side of the coin, right, we had Senator Dennis Lithicum and I think somebody else.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_02: Isn't there one other person?
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: There is a guy and Brett Barker, I think, is his name.
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: And I will tell you, you know, I'm familiar with Senator Linthicum.
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: I am not familiar with Brett Barker.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: If he sends me anything for the campaign, you know, I take a look at him.
• 15:24
  SPEAKER_00: But I really have no I'm pulling up his website right now.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: I'm sorry, Brent Barker.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: See, here's this is much.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is, it's a little rough there.
• 15:34
  SPEAKER_00: So he's been on Lars Larson and Jeff Krupp and stuff like that, but I do not listen to the radio.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm not as up on that front.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_02: So we'll just go ahead and give this one to Dennis.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_02: Let's look on.
• 15:44
  SPEAKER_02: How about that?
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_02: Cause even though I think the name ID is going to be hard.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_02: Yep.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_02: And the,
• 15:51
  SPEAKER_02: even though Dennis doesn't have a lot of money,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_02: hasn't raised a lot of money,
• 15:53
  SPEAKER_02: I just think,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_02: being a two-term Senator,
• 15:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think he'll do the tour with all the county parties,
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: and that's enough to really get him solidified as kind of the guy.
• 16:03
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 16:05
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't seem – I mean,
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think that's going to be a hard primary unless Mr.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: Brent Barker has some personal money he's going to unload.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: But even then, you've got to introduce him.
• 16:13
  SPEAKER_00: Use yourself and convince them.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think Senator Linthicum is going to have to do a lot of convincing.
• 16:18
  SPEAKER_00: He's been a pretty hard, you know, hard Republican, hard right Republican in Salem.
• 16:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's going to be consistent on that front and voters will like that in the Republican primary.
• 16:27
  SPEAKER_00: They just will.
• 16:29
  SPEAKER_02: So we will in a future podcast, we'll see if we're right.
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_02: We'll have to do an after the primary one after all of this and see how much.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_02: So we're, we're both choosing Tobias Reed and Dennis Linthicum merge.
• 16:42
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_02: So we will see.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: All right, moving on.
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: I'm putting these in our document, Brian.
• 16:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm putting them in bold of the ones we picked.
• 16:50
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 16:51
  SPEAKER_00: So state treasurer is open because Tobias Reed is term limited and you've got
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: really two serious Democrat candidates.
• 17:00
  SPEAKER_00: And I say serious with a very, you know, the longest you can stretch the use of that word, Brian.
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly Senator Elizabeth Steiner, the co-chair of Ways and Means is a serious candidate.
• 17:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's interesting because I don't know that voters will recognize this,
• 17:14
  SPEAKER_00: but I would say budget co-chair is a totally different job from treasurer.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: And really the only thing that's similar about them is you're dealing with money.
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: But treasurer really is about allocating the money and keeping the money protected
• 17:27
  SPEAKER_00: and investing the money wisely.
• 17:30
  SPEAKER_00: And the co-chair, what does it mean?
• 17:31
  SPEAKER_00: It's not that you don't do that,
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: but it's mostly about making decisions about how to spend taxpayer money.
• 17:36
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 17:37
  SPEAKER_00: And the treasurer is not going to spend any taxpayer money.
• 17:39
  SPEAKER_00: He's going to make sure the money is where it needs to be when it needs to be there
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: to execute what the legislature has done for the most part.
• 17:45
  SPEAKER_00: So you've kind of got more of a logistics money job versus a,
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 17:50
  SPEAKER_00: for lack of a better term,
• 17:51
  SPEAKER_00: a political money job because a budget is a political document.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 17:53
  SPEAKER_00: At the end of the day, it's talking about where your priorities are.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: Are your priorities education, health care, what have you?
• 18:00
  SPEAKER_00: The Christmas tree bill, right?
• 18:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's political, deciding whose projects to fund where.
• 18:05
  SPEAKER_00: And for those who are not familiar,
• 18:06
  SPEAKER_00: the Christmas tree bill is the end of session bill that contains,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 18:10
  SPEAKER_00: hundreds and hundreds of line items getting spent all over the state with,
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 18:14
  SPEAKER_00: some available resources,
• 18:16
  SPEAKER_00: sort of those...
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: Mark that down as another...
• 18:20
  SPEAKER_00: Pork barrel spending.
• 18:21
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, we should do an episode about the Christmas tree.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe we can invite a couple of special guests to talk about that sort of stuff.
• 18:29
  SPEAKER_02: I just don't know how much people care about money, though.
• 18:31
  SPEAKER_02: It's a tough thing because government spending is very weedy and not fun and sexy to talk about.
• 18:42
  SPEAKER_02: Nothing like policy is, right?
• 18:45
  SPEAKER_02: But to your point...
• 18:47
  SPEAKER_02: Dollars move policy.
• 18:49
  SPEAKER_02: So reality is,
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_02: if we were smarter as Republicans,
• 18:54
  SPEAKER_02: we would focus more on the dollars because ultimately dollars affect policy way
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_02: more than I think we give credit to.
• 19:02
  SPEAKER_02: So but anyways, yeah, you're right on the Treasurer's race.
• 19:05
  SPEAKER_02: So we have Steiner, obviously.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_02: And the other one is the Democrat is.
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_00: Jeff Goodman.
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: And what's funny about him is he's run twice before as treasurer or for treasurer, but not as a Democrat.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: He's running as a Democrat this time in the May primary.
• 19:21
  SPEAKER_00: Previously, twice, he's won as the Republican.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: He got very, very close because Chris Telfer and Tobias Reid were all
• 19:28
  SPEAKER_00: Also in the race and they sort of split the vote.
• 19:30
  SPEAKER_00: Telfer ran as an independent and Tobias Reed was brand new to statewide office and
• 19:34
  SPEAKER_00: Goodman got within a couple of points in that race.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: And then Tobias Reed ran for reelection four years later, absolutely demolished Goodman.
• 19:42
  SPEAKER_00: It wasn't even close.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's taking a different strategy now, which is to be a Democrat.
• 19:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just telling you right now,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 19:49
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think this strategy of flipping parties and changing your policy is really
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: going to convince people that want to vote for Goodman in the primary.
• 19:56
  SPEAKER_00: But maybe tell me I'm wrong, Brian.
• 19:58
  SPEAKER_00: Do you see a way that this could work for Mr. Goodman?
• 20:01
  SPEAKER_02: I'm, you know, I'm looking in the archives of my brain to see if this has ever worked for anybody.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_02: And yeah, the answer is no.
• 20:08
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that Steiner wins that primary.
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_02: Goodman,
• 20:12
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_02: that idea that you can,
• 20:15
  SPEAKER_02: I think he lives in Lake Oswego,
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_02: but that idea that you can run as a Republican twice,
• 20:19
  SPEAKER_02: switch parties and somehow win.
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_02: Maybe you could have done that 20 years ago, 30 years ago.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_02: I think you could have got away with it when our parties were a little bit more aligned.
• 20:31
  SPEAKER_02: um especially in a primary race right where you know you're going to get really
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_02: more stronger republicans that vote in primaries and more stronger democrats to
• 20:42
  SPEAKER_02: vote in their primaries so in a world like we live in today i would say that
• 20:49
  SPEAKER_02: goodman would be lucky if he gets 35 of the vote
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and so he's a former Lake Oswego City Councilor.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: He's got an MBA in finance from Wharton School of Business.
• 21:02
  SPEAKER_00: Not that he isn't qualified.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's sort of what I'm seeing from him.
• 21:07
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't come from a political background,
• 21:10
  SPEAKER_00: and so he's just trying to find the best way that he can to try to serve his
• 21:13
  SPEAKER_00: treasurer because he thinks he would do a good job,
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_00: and he probably would do a good job.
• 21:17
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just telling you, whoever's giving him this political strategy –
• 21:20
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't make sense to me,
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_00: and I don't think it's going to make sense to Democratic voters,
• 21:24
  SPEAKER_00: and it's going to keep him off the November ballot.
• 21:26
  SPEAKER_02: And he doesn't have his own money.
• 21:28
  SPEAKER_02: So at the end of the day, nobody's going to invest in him.
• 21:32
  SPEAKER_02: The only way he even becomes a voice is if he's got his own million dollars to throw into the race.
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_02: And if you don't have that, I don't know.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_02: I guess you just do it for fun.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_02: You know, might as well.
• 21:45
  SPEAKER_02: You got to see your name on a ballot now for, I guess, over a decade.
• 21:48
  SPEAKER_02: So good for you on that realm.
• 21:50
  SPEAKER_02: But Steiner wins that one going away.
• 21:54
  SPEAKER_02: Game over.
• 21:55
  SPEAKER_02: And then on the Republican side, we got, you know, good old Senator Boatwist.
• 22:00
  SPEAKER_02: Right.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_02: So.
• 22:03
  SPEAKER_02: I think that shapes up for a very interesting general election when you have two
• 22:08
  SPEAKER_02: people that I would probably consider to be some of the most knowledgeable budget
• 22:12
  SPEAKER_02: writers in the state that I've ever seen going against each other that don't write
• 22:18
  SPEAKER_02: the state budget.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: Well, in Boquist, he served on finance and revenue forever.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: And so he's he's leaving the Senate because of he's barred from running for
• 22:28
  SPEAKER_00: reelection because of the measure 113 decision,
• 22:32
  SPEAKER_00: which was,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 22:33
  SPEAKER_00: to prevent walkouts of more than 10 days,
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: basically.
• 22:36
  SPEAKER_00: And so, I mean, finance, you know, everyone I've talked to.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: in the political sphere is really disappointed that he won't be there because he
• 22:43
  SPEAKER_00: just knows so much more because he's been there for so long on finance and revenue.
• 22:47
  SPEAKER_00: So I think he's going to be able to talk competently about government finance.
• 22:52
  SPEAKER_00: And so will Senator Steiner.
• 22:54
  SPEAKER_00: And so if they get a chance to debate, you know, shoot, charge money for that.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm there.
• 22:59
  SPEAKER_00: I want to see that.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe they won't.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_01: You and me and like, yeah, they're, yeah.
• 23:05
  SPEAKER_01: husband and wife yeah they're campaign managers that's right uh we talk about i
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_02: mean i'll just i mean talk about the most boring general election on the planet uh
• 23:16
  SPEAKER_02: yeah statewide between steiner and boquist from a political standpoint from a nerd
• 23:24
  SPEAKER_02: out standpoint probably fascinating but
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_02: Voters just are not going to tune into that one at all.
• 23:33
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, at all.
• 23:35
  SPEAKER_02: And as much as I like them both,
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_02: to be honest with you,
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_02: I think they're both actually very competent people.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_02: And that one will be... We'll have to dive into that one.
• 23:46
  SPEAKER_02: I think it'll be kind of fun because hopefully people listening to our podcast are
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_02: probably nerds like we are.
• 23:51
  SPEAKER_02: So they'll probably enjoy that debate.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_02: But I think the general public will...
• 23:58
  SPEAKER_02: That'll be a tough one to sell through because I would even I would wonder what
• 24:02
  SPEAKER_02: their messaging would be on that.
• 24:04
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that'll be just for you and I and some of the other political consultants out there.
• 24:08
  SPEAKER_02: It would be fascinating to see what their messaging is for those two in regards to that race.
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_02: But I am looking forward to it because I do respect both those two senators.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that they got an interesting road ahead of them.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: Yep.
• 24:24
  SPEAKER_00: So the next race on our docket is Attorney General.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: And you've got on the Democratic side, Dan Rayfield.
• 24:33
  SPEAKER_00: And I apologize because I'm probably going to pronounce his opponent's name wrong,
• 24:36
  SPEAKER_00: but there's nothing I can do about it.
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: Shaina Maxie Pomerantz is my best run at that one.
• 24:44
  SPEAKER_00: Rayfield's got an opponent?
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_02: I didn't even realize.
• 24:46
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 24:48
  SPEAKER_00: I would say a lot of people will open their ballot and be surprised that Dan Rayfield's got an opponent.
• 24:53
  SPEAKER_00: It looks like she popped in on filing day.
• 24:57
  SPEAKER_00: Sort of one of those candidates that's just going to nip at your heel.
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's going to be tough,
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think,
• 25:02
  SPEAKER_00: for her to go up against former Speaker of the House Dan Rayfield,
• 25:06
  SPEAKER_00: who has...
• 25:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to I'm just going to go out on a limb and say an enormous money advantage there,
• 25:12
  SPEAKER_00: an enormous endorsement advantage,
• 25:14
  SPEAKER_00: an enormous institutional.
• 25:16
  SPEAKER_00: He's not been on a statewide ballot before, so this is his first time doing that.
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: But I think to the extent that you're going to be a first time candidate,
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: he's probably in one of the better positions of any first time candidate for state.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: you know, a statewide office in terms of his reputation.
• 25:30
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: even as speaker,
• 25:33
  SPEAKER_00: he was he was one there where while the Senate was just out there falling apart in 2023,
• 25:40
  SPEAKER_00: he really built a stable house.
• 25:43
  SPEAKER_00: I heard a lot of Republicans say good things about Dan Rayfield.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: So, Brian, what's your what's your assessment of this race?
• 25:51
  SPEAKER_02: Well, on the Democrat side, I mean, it's kind of a no-brainer.
• 25:54
  SPEAKER_02: I think Speaker Rayfield,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 25:57
  SPEAKER_02: being Speaker of the House and moving into that realm,
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_02: and he's raised a lot of money,
• 26:01
  SPEAKER_02: I think close to a million dollars at this point.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_02: I think that that's probably...
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_02: However,
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_02: I think that the general election year could set up to be probably the biggest headliner,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 26:16
  SPEAKER_02: of the state.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_02: So I am really looking forward to having an AG's race that's
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_02: quite frankly, worth a shit to pay attention to because we haven't had one in, what, 12 years, right?
• 26:28
  SPEAKER_02: So I can't think of the last time.
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_02: So because of our challenger, right?
• 26:33
  SPEAKER_02: I think Will Atherup on our side has really kind of come along pretty good as a candidate.
• 26:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's kind of moved across the state pretty well.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's started with the base.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_02: He's done some base building, talking, saying the right things, doing the right stuff.
• 26:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think...
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_02: You know,
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_02: watching two attorneys go after it that probably enjoy looking at their names in
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_02: limelight is going to be interesting.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_02: I think this really could be the fireworks for statewide races.
• 27:04
  SPEAKER_02: This is definitely the firework race.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think it should be interesting.
• 27:07
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's a lot of things in which the Attorney General...
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_02: could do to shape policy in a state and how we interact with the federal government,
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 27:18
  SPEAKER_02: how the governor does things,
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_02: how the other offices do things.
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_02: The Attorney General really has a lot of power in Oregon.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_02: You're more aware of this than I am, Reagan, but I just know that they do.
• 27:29
  SPEAKER_02: And we've dealt with, from our standpoint, I think from Rosenblum's standpoint, has been
• 27:35
  SPEAKER_02: Seems like she's just gone along with other blue states and signing on to stuff and
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_02: doing things and trying to get money settlements and things like that,
• 27:43
  SPEAKER_02: where I think Rayfield and Lathrop probably both want to use the office in a little
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_02: more active policy driven role.
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_02: So that'll be kind of interesting to me.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: I would say it's sort of interesting because the AG is the top law enforcement officer,
• 27:57
  SPEAKER_00: but what you choose to focus on really sets the tone.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_00: And so in a political environment,
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: which seems to be,
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: we just did Measure 110 reform at the legislature to sort of bring that
• 28:09
  SPEAKER_00: recriminalization back.
• 28:10
  SPEAKER_00: There's a lot of concern,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: especially with,
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: kind of coupled with the illegal immigration issue that's really happening.
• 28:17
  SPEAKER_00: popped up in the last couple of years where you know even you know here we go we're
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: already talking about it president biden is already talking about trying to you
• 28:24
  SPEAKER_00: know he's talking about talking about securing the border um with an executive
• 28:28
  SPEAKER_00: order and so that kind of coupled with the drugs and the crime aspect if we have a
• 28:33
  SPEAKER_00: drugs and crime election
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: You're right.
• 28:35
  SPEAKER_00: I think it sort of puts the AG's office in the spotlight a little bit because
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_00: they're in a unique position to utilize law enforcement resources,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:44
  SPEAKER_00: coordinate with local law enforcement.
• 28:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's the thing that people will be most interested in is how are you
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_00: going to coordinate law enforcement to really crack down on this stuff?
• 28:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because it's you need resources, you need them to go together.
• 28:55
  SPEAKER_00: And if there's,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: if there's cartel activity happening,
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_00: the AG really needs to drive that forward.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_00: Or make an impact because the local law enforcement budgets aren't big enough to
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_00: bring all the resources to bear that you need to because the cartels can be a bit dangerous.
• 29:12
  SPEAKER_00: So that's I think you're totally right in terms of elevating this race a little bit
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_00: to qualified candidates.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: And so, yeah, I agree.
• 29:20
  SPEAKER_00: Dan Rayfield in the primary for Democrats,
• 29:21
  SPEAKER_00: Will Lathrop in the primary for Republicans,
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_00: and then a good race in November.
• 29:27
  SPEAKER_02: I got a feeling we're probably going to talk about this race a lot, this cycle.
• 29:32
  SPEAKER_02: I really love what you just said there about how this race,
• 29:37
  SPEAKER_02: Will Lathrop's probably going to try to frame it as a crime and police race,
• 29:43
  SPEAKER_02: all that sort of stuff,
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 29:44
  SPEAKER_02: Oregon's top cop kind of thing,
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_02: And I think Rayfield, I mean, really is kind of known for election stuff, right?
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, in the legislature, it seems like rank choice voting was this big thing.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_02: You know, campaign finance reform.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_02: He's kind of pushed.
• 30:01
  SPEAKER_02: I don't really see Rayfield being anything to do with law enforcement, to be honest with you.
• 30:08
  SPEAKER_02: As speaker, I don't know if he did anything.
• 30:11
  SPEAKER_02: in that realm of stuff.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 30:13
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's probably going to say that he was the one that reformed Measure 110
• 30:16
  SPEAKER_02: and kind of make that stuff happen.
• 30:20
  SPEAKER_02: I would see him probably pushing in that level,
• 30:22
  SPEAKER_02: but it'll be interesting to see how they frame each other,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_02: how this race goes.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_02: I'm very curious on the politics of this race because the AG really could go one
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_02: way or the other,
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_02: and it's really going to be who has got the political will to push the other one
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_02: into their fight
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's really where it's going to come down to.
• 30:42
  SPEAKER_02: So it should be good.
• 30:44
  SPEAKER_02: It should be interesting.
• 30:45
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think Will's got a primary opponent.
• 30:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think that he's done the work.
• 30:50
  SPEAKER_02: I even forgot the guy's name at his card sitting here.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: Michael Cross is his name.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: He ran against Rosenblum either four or eight years ago.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: I just was trying to look that up and got 40% of the vote right.
• 31:05
  SPEAKER_00: So that's basically what if you're a Republican statewide,
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: you put your name on a ballot,
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: you don't campaign,
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: that's what you get.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_02: We call that the Joe Ray Perkins line.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_02: Is that what we call it?
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: Well, honestly, yes, we should call it the Joe Ray Perkins line.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: And so if you get above the Joe Ray Perkins line, you've done above average.
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're at or below it, you've done average or below average.
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_00: That's a,
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's a good – that's going to become one of those things, Brian, in 80 episodes.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: We're going to have to explain to new listeners of the podcast.
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_00: I love that.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's great.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 31:37
  SPEAKER_02: We'll put that one in there.
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_02: I did meet Michael down in Josephine County.
• 31:41
  SPEAKER_02: I was down there speaking to –
• 31:44
  SPEAKER_02: um federation of uh republican women down there and i met him nice guy i mean he
• 31:49
  SPEAKER_02: agreed with will on they basically agreed uh together in their primary so that race
• 31:55
  SPEAKER_02: will come down to money and i think will's got a very strong advantage there and
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_02: should should pull that one out so then just a quick recap so we got the coming
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_02: tobias reed secretary of state head to head
• 32:08
  SPEAKER_02: Treasury race,
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_02: Senator Steiner versus Senator Boquist,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_02: Democrat,
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_02: Republican head-to-head,
• 32:13
  SPEAKER_02: and then we'll have
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_02: AG's race, Dan Rayfield versus Will Lathrop.
• 32:20
  SPEAKER_00: Brian, I think we've hit the conventional wisdom.
• 32:23
  SPEAKER_00: When I talk to people, this is the conventional wisdom about what these races look like in November.
• 32:29
  SPEAKER_00: We're not lighting any fires.
• 32:32
  SPEAKER_00: We're not throwing out any hot takes on these ones.
• 32:35
  SPEAKER_00: We might have some hot takes here on these next ones, though.
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_00: Let's do it.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_02: Not the first two.
• 32:40
  SPEAKER_02: Let's do congressional races now.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_02: We'll shift gears.
• 32:44
  SPEAKER_02: and talk about federal congressional districts.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_02: So Oregon has six.
• 32:50
  SPEAKER_02: We, you know, we picked up, we picked up a six last cycle, which was redistricting.
• 32:55
  SPEAKER_02: We had a bunch of people move to Oregon right over the last 10 years.
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_02: And that got us to another congressional district.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_02: So statewide, right.
• 33:02
  SPEAKER_02: Everybody, they got to buy for 4 million voters.
• 33:05
  SPEAKER_02: Congressional districts have six and there's somewhere around what 800,000 or so voters in
• 33:11
  SPEAKER_02: um in each of these congressional districts give or take so they are big it's a big
• 33:16
  SPEAKER_02: population swath and in oregon that means you know three of them probably touch
• 33:20
  SPEAKER_02: portland uh which is what we have and then three don't right so in the way that uh
• 33:26
  SPEAKER_02: Redistricting when you Democrats were in control.
• 33:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think they thought they had a pretty slight advantage in five and six.
• 33:35
  SPEAKER_02: And I think what we found was both five and six became pretty decent barn burners last cycle.
• 33:41
  SPEAKER_02: And I think we're seeing that again this year.
• 33:43
  SPEAKER_02: So that's kind of my
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_02: Overall take,
• 33:46
  SPEAKER_02: starting at the bottom,
• 33:48
  SPEAKER_02: CD1,
• 33:49
  SPEAKER_02: it's only just because of numerical bottom,
• 33:52
  SPEAKER_02: Bonamici is running again.
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_02: She's got $500,000 on hand, not doing anything.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_02: I looked online to see if she was doing anything,
• 34:01
  SPEAKER_02: and I'm just seeing not really even raising a whole bunch,
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_02: just kind of there,
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 34:06
  SPEAKER_02: So I'm not going to waste any time, Reagan.
• 34:09
  SPEAKER_02: Do you have any thoughts on CD1?
• 34:10
  SPEAKER_02: That's basically West Portland-based.
• 34:12
  SPEAKER_02: you know, Beaverton heading out that way into Hillsborough.
• 34:17
  SPEAKER_02: There's just no real chance of Republicans winning and there's kind of no point.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: I'm on the list of representatives for Oregon from Wikipedia and they put this Cook
• 34:27
  SPEAKER_00: partisan voting index measuring how their partisanship towards each party.
• 34:32
  SPEAKER_00: D plus 18.
• 34:33
  SPEAKER_00: No, she'll be fine.
• 34:35
  SPEAKER_00: She wouldn't have to spend a dime to win that by double digits in the primary and
• 34:40
  SPEAKER_00: the same amount in the general for sure.
• 34:42
  SPEAKER_02: D plus 18.
• 34:43
  SPEAKER_02: All right.
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_02: Well, then in CD2, we go to the other side of the coin, which is my neck of the woods, right?
• 34:49
  SPEAKER_02: So we got Cliff Benz that won in a very hotly contested primary back in 2020.
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think you're very familiar with that one, aren't you, Reagan?
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: Yes.
• 35:02
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks, Brian.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, it's my favorite ever race for sure.
• 35:06
  SPEAKER_00: And people can ask me about it.
• 35:10
  SPEAKER_02: We could spend a whole podcast going back and rehashing that primary race.
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_02: But I think the reality was,
• 35:16
  SPEAKER_02: I think Cliff came down,
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_02: had a long history,
• 35:21
  SPEAKER_02: won that primary and won that primary.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's some people that probably got some, give or take, some good or bad with Cliff.
• 35:29
  SPEAKER_02: I don't have any issues with Cliff.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's been fine.
• 35:31
  SPEAKER_02: He does have a...
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_02: Primary opponent, Primal Mayor, which I know Jason Beebe's running against him.
• 35:38
  SPEAKER_02: I have a note here that he's raised zero and spent zero.
• 35:42
  SPEAKER_02: So I don't think he's going after Cliff too hard.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_02: Who's raised, has a million dollars cash on hand and raised even 150 grand in the first quarter.
• 35:51
  SPEAKER_02: So let's do his job, you know, doing it.
• 35:55
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's doing fine with that.
• 35:57
  SPEAKER_02: I think he's got a gavel at the water committee.
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_02: I'd probably put them in the same deal with Bonamici like there's just not a whole
• 36:05
  SPEAKER_02: bunch going on right it's probably R plus let me guess R plus 12 maybe 15 Brian
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_00: very very close R plus 15 on the Cook Partisan Index write these down so I know
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_02: well the good part is now we get to get into the interesting one so CD3 so CD3
• 36:26
  SPEAKER_02: which is Earl Blumenauer's district
• 36:29
  SPEAKER_02: I listened to that OPB podcast.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, you did?
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_02: You did the homework, I see.
• 36:34
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I did.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_02: Good work, Brian.
• 36:38
  SPEAKER_02: Did you know that there's been three representatives in this congressional district
• 36:43
  SPEAKER_02: for the last 70 years?
• 36:46
  SPEAKER_02: Had no clue, Brian.
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_02: So if that tells you that this is a D plus, it's probably not better than Bonamici's, though.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_02: I bet you it's only D plus 14.
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_00: D plus 22, Brian.
• 37:00
  SPEAKER_00: It is actually better than Bonamici.
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, it is worse.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_03: Wow.
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: Well, so here's the thing.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_00: We talk about... I'm going to diverge just for a half second.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_00: You actually have Salinas' seat in six.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Chavez Dreamer's seat in five.
• 37:13
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Blumenauer's seat in three.
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: And you've got Bonamici's seat in one.
• 37:16
  SPEAKER_00: So you actually have four districts that touch like Portland or Portland suburbs.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: Right?
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: And that is how...
• 37:23
  SPEAKER_00: they really break up and make it so that they can have four seats that are Democratic, right?
• 37:28
  SPEAKER_00: If you were to draw a fair map here,
• 37:30
  SPEAKER_00: you'd really draw two Republican seats,
• 37:33
  SPEAKER_00: two Democratic seats,
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: and two competitive seats.
• 37:37
  SPEAKER_00: and uh so which they didn't do in the legislature and it is why the republicans
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: were so frustrated with the gerrymandering right so that's why you've got a little
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_00: bit that's going on but yeah bloom in our seat is a huge democratic vote sink d
• 37:50
  SPEAKER_00: plus 22 uh so the winner of the primary is going to win the general election i
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_02: really thought all right so we got three basically democrats that emerged and uh
• 38:01
  SPEAKER_02: You know, we have Jayapal, who her sister, cousin, sister, is in Congress already.
• 38:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to Google this real quick because I get this wrong.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: But Pramila Jayapal is already in Congress in Washington.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: And Shashia, her, I'm Googling right now to double check.
• 38:19
  SPEAKER_00: We want to be accurate on the podcast for you guys.
• 38:22
  SPEAKER_02: Well, Reagan likes to be accurate.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_02: I just like to throw bombs.
• 38:25
  SPEAKER_02: So her sister's part of the terrorist caucus is what they like to say, right?
• 38:30
  SPEAKER_02: Is that what people like to say?
• 38:32
  SPEAKER_00: It's called the Hamas caucus, I believe.
• 38:34
  SPEAKER_02: The Hamas caucus, yeah.
• 38:37
  SPEAKER_00: So Shashila is the older sister of Pramila and the daughter of Indian writer Maya Jayapal.
• 38:45
  SPEAKER_02: Crazy.
• 38:46
  SPEAKER_02: Okay.
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_02: She's got $400,000 in the bank, raised $333,000 in the first quarter.
• 38:54
  SPEAKER_02: Definitely former or is Multnomah County Commissioner stepped down, right, to run.
• 39:00
  SPEAKER_02: And then you have Gresham City Councilor Eddie Morales.
• 39:04
  SPEAKER_02: who raised $264,000 in the first quarter,
• 39:08
  SPEAKER_02: and it's got about a quarter of a million dollars cash on hand.
• 39:11
  SPEAKER_02: So he's basically at his burn rate.
• 39:14
  SPEAKER_02: And then you have state representative Maxine Dexter, who hopped in the race a little late.
• 39:18
  SPEAKER_02: Cash on hand, again, $226,000 and raised only about $185,000 in the first quarter.
• 39:28
  SPEAKER_02: First quarter raising matters because obviously that's the money you have to spend
• 39:31
  SPEAKER_02: right now to win this race.
• 39:32
  SPEAKER_02: So first quarter ended the end of March.
• 39:36
  SPEAKER_02: So in listening to these three,
• 39:38
  SPEAKER_02: if you haven't listened to that OPB podcast,
• 39:42
  SPEAKER_02: it obviously wasn't geared towards me.
• 39:44
  SPEAKER_02: But Dave did a pretty good job in that podcast of really trying to find out.
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_02: What policy difference actually separated these three?
• 39:54
  SPEAKER_02: And I'm telling you,
• 39:55
  SPEAKER_02: it was a 40 minute podcast and I couldn't tell you one policy difference between
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_01: these three.
• 40:04
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 40:05
  SPEAKER_00: I was listening to it and I was kind of interested because normally in a primary,
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_00: and I'm just thinking about what I know,
• 40:10
  SPEAKER_00: which is Republican primaries,
• 40:12
  SPEAKER_00: you're drawing a contrast,
• 40:13
  SPEAKER_00: right?
• 40:14
  SPEAKER_00: You're pointing at the other guy and you're saying they're a big government Republican.
• 40:18
  SPEAKER_00: They want to kill babies.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: They want to take your guns.
• 40:21
  SPEAKER_00: Like you're looking for anything.
• 40:23
  SPEAKER_00: They're going to raise your taxes.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_00: You're looking for anything to draw a significant contrast.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_00: And right now in Republican primaries across the country,
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_00: it's I love Donald Trump and this guy said mean things about Donald Trump or whatever.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_00: Whatever.
• 40:34
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 40:35
  SPEAKER_00: So I was thinking I was like, OK, where's the divide here?
• 40:38
  SPEAKER_00: Is it going to be is going to be on Israel?
• 40:40
  SPEAKER_00: Is it going to be on, you know, health care for all Medicare for all?
• 40:44
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 40:45
  SPEAKER_00: Where's the policy difference?
• 40:46
  SPEAKER_00: They worked so hard to make it sound like they were all the same candidate.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: And I was kind of interested in that.
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_00: I don't understand that strategy.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_00: And maybe it was because it was such a public facing forum that they didn't want it
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_00: to look like a mudslinging fight.
• 41:01
  SPEAKER_00: But at the same time, you're not at risk.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_00: of losing the general election by messing up whoever wins this thing.
• 41:06
  SPEAKER_00: So why not go at it was my question.
• 41:09
  SPEAKER_00: And they just never did.
• 41:10
  SPEAKER_02: I was left...
• 41:14
  SPEAKER_02: And it was a bummer.
• 41:16
  SPEAKER_02: I do like,
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 41:18
  SPEAKER_02: primaries for that reason,
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_02: because that should be where do you guys separate yourselves on that political
• 41:24
  SPEAKER_02: spectrum on the left political spectrum even I don't mind hearing that that those
• 41:29
  SPEAKER_02: differences and I just saw zero.
• 41:33
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, so at the end of the day, I guess you vote for.
• 41:38
  SPEAKER_02: You know, Jayapal, Morales, or Dexter based on who you like?
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, I don't know.
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_02: I mean,
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_02: at that point,
• 41:44
  SPEAKER_02: I was just like,
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_02: wow,
• 41:45
  SPEAKER_02: if I'm a Democrat living in East Portland right now,
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_02: I would have zero idea who I vote for at that point.
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_02: I don't know.
• 41:53
  SPEAKER_02: I guess it's whoever reaches them last.
• 41:56
  SPEAKER_00: Well, and so here's what I'm going to do, Brian.
• 41:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just going to attempt to go deeper for a second because I think now what you
• 42:03
  SPEAKER_00: sort of look at is,
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_00: okay,
• 42:04
  SPEAKER_00: how could you draw a distinction between these candidates?
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_00: So I'm going to look at endorsements next because the money race, nobody's dominating the money race.
• 42:11
  SPEAKER_00: So Shashila Jayapal has Bernie Sanders.
• 42:16
  SPEAKER_00: And that is sort of the biggest.
• 42:18
  SPEAKER_00: She's got her younger sister.
• 42:20
  SPEAKER_00: She's got Barbara Lee Ro Khanna in Congress.
• 42:23
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 42:24
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe some names.
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_00: Ilhan Omar.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 42:26
  SPEAKER_00: So you kind of from that list, you sort of look at and you go, OK, so she's probably going to step into.
• 42:33
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if they call it the same the federal level, but like their BIPOC kind of caucus.
• 42:40
  SPEAKER_00: But they really call them the squad is what they've kind of been named as.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_00: And so you think that.
• 42:44
  SPEAKER_00: She's likely to step into that squad position.
• 42:48
  SPEAKER_00: Then you go to Eddie Morales and you look at his endorsements and you go,
• 42:52
  SPEAKER_00: he's got a couple of labor unions,
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_00: the OEA,
• 42:54
  SPEAKER_00: the Education Association,
• 42:57
  SPEAKER_00: state letter carriers.
• 42:59
  SPEAKER_00: Some of these are unions I didn't even know you could win.
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uh,
• 43:02
  SPEAKER_00: he's got progressive groups and individuals like Stacey Abrams who ran,
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_00: uh,
• 43:07
  SPEAKER_00: and claimed the election was stolen from Georgia as a Democrat,
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_00: the working families party.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 43:12
  SPEAKER_00: Now this is weird.
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_00: Our revolution, Oregon, which is a group that Bernie Sanders started.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_00: So you almost see the far left divided.
• 43:20
  SPEAKER_00: So then you go to Maxine Dexter's and you go, okay, endorsements.
• 43:23
  SPEAKER_00: You've got every town for gun safety, UFCW, uh,
• 43:27
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Hood River County Democrats.
• 43:31
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Speaker Dan Rayfield, former state rep Jeff Reardon.
• 43:35
  SPEAKER_00: So she's got Kuligowski and Kitzhopper, former governor's treasurer Tobias Reed.
• 43:40
  SPEAKER_00: Like, Dexter clearly...
• 43:43
  SPEAKER_00: exists in the establishment Democrat lane.
• 43:46
  SPEAKER_00: So here's I'm getting my prediction.
• 43:48
  SPEAKER_00: Dexter's the establishment Dem.
• 43:50
  SPEAKER_00: Jayapal and Morales are fighting for the far left, which might be a greater percentage of the race.
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_00: But if they split it, that's how Dexter wins.
• 43:57
  SPEAKER_00: That's kind of my thinking on this.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_00: Do you have a different view of that?
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_00: I do.
• 44:02
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to disagree with you on this one.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 44:04
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 44:05
  SPEAKER_00: It's about time.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think that in Portland and in this district specifically,
• 44:13
  SPEAKER_02: Democrats jump up and down to vote for somebody who is not like them.
• 44:20
  SPEAKER_02: And so I think that that's Maxine Dexter.
• 44:24
  SPEAKER_02: I think she loses on that one, and I think Jayapal wins.
• 44:28
  SPEAKER_02: I think she's been on the Multnomah County ballot.
• 44:31
  SPEAKER_02: I think that enough of those people push her over the line, and I think sadly, I think sadly,
• 44:39
  SPEAKER_02: I would say for,
• 44:40
  SPEAKER_02: but I'm a Republican saying this,
• 44:42
  SPEAKER_02: so it's hard for me to kind of try to put on my Democrat lens.
• 44:46
  SPEAKER_02: I agree with you that I think Dexter has definitely got the establishment of the Oregon Democrat vote.
• 44:52
  SPEAKER_02: But these groups that you're,
• 44:55
  SPEAKER_02: you were reading off with these guys are definitely,
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_02: I think the more money side goes to Jayapal.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_02: I think they wait to give a bunch of money right now.
• 45:06
  SPEAKER_02: into this race.
• 45:07
  SPEAKER_02: I do think the Dexter has been on TV pretty well.
• 45:10
  SPEAKER_02: She's got some decent super packs paying some money.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_02: I does.
• 45:13
  SPEAKER_02: I do think it comes down to those two.
• 45:15
  SPEAKER_02: I think Morales actually should, Eddie should be pretty proud of where he's what he's done in this race.
• 45:21
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think anybody really gave him much of a chance.
• 45:24
  SPEAKER_02: And I think he's done.
• 45:25
  SPEAKER_02: I think he'll do surprisingly well, but I think Jaya Paul wins by, and I'll even throw it out.
• 45:29
  SPEAKER_02: I think she's all right.
• 45:31
  SPEAKER_02: Four points.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 45:34
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 45:36
  SPEAKER_00: So you've got Jayapal by four.
• 45:37
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if I've got a prediction on numbers,
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_00: but I do think Dexter benefits from the split vote there.
• 45:42
  SPEAKER_00: But if Jayapal dominates a little bit more of the progressive vote or even cuts into,
• 45:46
  SPEAKER_00: like you said,
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_00: the identity politics of sort of the white Democrats looking to kind of
• 45:53
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know the right way to talk about it,
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 45:54
  SPEAKER_00: but they want to undo slavery or something,
• 45:57
  SPEAKER_00: and so they're going to vote for candidates who don't look like them.
• 46:02
  SPEAKER_00: You might be right on that one.
• 46:04
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to be watching that one.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_00: That'll be on the top of my list.
• 46:07
  SPEAKER_02: That primary is definitely a really interesting one to look at.
• 46:13
  SPEAKER_02: I was hoping for more candidates, to be honest.
• 46:15
  SPEAKER_02: This is my last hot take on CD3.
• 46:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think that
• 46:22
  SPEAKER_02: Other congressional candidates are probably pissed that they filed for CD5 or the
• 46:30
  SPEAKER_02: other CD races before CD3 came open.
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_02: And I think there's a lot of people upset that they could have ran for like a
• 46:42
  SPEAKER_02: Janelle Bynum or even,
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 46:44
  SPEAKER_02: our CD5 candidates that probably Jamie McLeod Skinner even,
• 46:48
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 46:48
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, she had a huge...
• 46:51
  SPEAKER_02: taking up in Hood River and some of those areas,
• 46:53
  SPEAKER_02: she probably could have ran for CD3 versus running for a hotly contested CD5.
• 46:59
  SPEAKER_02: So I think the timing of CD3 really ended up with three candidates versus... Totally more.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_00: Because here's a list of candidates that were rumored.
• 47:09
  SPEAKER_00: I kept track of this on my candidate tracker,
• 47:11
  SPEAKER_00: which,
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 47:12
  SPEAKER_00: coming soon back in the 2026 election cycle.
• 47:16
  SPEAKER_00: So here's some rumored candidates or some people who publicly thought about running and then didn't.
• 47:22
  SPEAKER_00: Tweetran, a freshman state representative.
• 47:25
  SPEAKER_00: Travis Nelson.
• 47:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if he's a freshman or not, but he's a state representative as well.
• 47:29
  SPEAKER_00: Former state rep Deborah Kofori.
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, Nelson took Governor Kotex.
• 47:36
  SPEAKER_00: Oh, that's right.
• 47:37
  SPEAKER_02: That's totally right.
• 47:38
  SPEAKER_02: So, yes.
• 47:40
  SPEAKER_00: So that's why he doesn't feel like a freshman.
• 47:41
  SPEAKER_00: So Nelson and then Deborah Kofori and then Steve Novick,
• 47:47
  SPEAKER_00: who is a former Portland City Commissioner,
• 47:49
  SPEAKER_00: I think.
• 47:50
  SPEAKER_00: So there was you were totally right.
• 47:51
  SPEAKER_00: There was a ton more people who thought about it.
• 47:53
  SPEAKER_00: And I think the timing didn't work for them.
• 47:55
  SPEAKER_00: Novick is actually running for Portland City Council again, if I remember right.
• 47:59
  SPEAKER_00: um so these people all found other things or all got started on other stuff and it
• 48:03
  SPEAKER_00: was too late to pivot in touring for congress because the hard part about it is the
• 48:08
  SPEAKER_00: campaign limits at like 3 300 bucks each it makes it hard to raise the money and so
• 48:13
  SPEAKER_00: you're going to need some outside money to win and that's the other thing too if
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_00: one of those two candidates dominates the outside money game could tip the scales
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_00: in their favor a little bit but
• 48:22
  SPEAKER_00: That doesn't necessarily always overcome Democratic voters' preference for a more
• 48:26
  SPEAKER_00: progressive candidate either.
• 48:27
  SPEAKER_00: I agree.
• 48:29
  SPEAKER_00: It really is six and one half a dozen to the other on that one.
• 48:32
  SPEAKER_02: Fair, fair point, I think.
• 48:34
  SPEAKER_02: Candidate tracker coming in 2026, plus some insights we'll add to it.
• 48:40
  SPEAKER_01: It'll be back, right?
• 48:41
  SPEAKER_02: Let's move on to CD4.
• 48:43
  SPEAKER_02: This is now kind of a coastal, mid-coastal
• 48:48
  SPEAKER_02: You know, Corvallis, Eugene and then touches kind of down south.
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_02: I five kind of area was was an open seat two years ago about oil one.
• 49:00
  SPEAKER_02: So now we have obviously Valhalla on the Democrat side.
• 49:04
  SPEAKER_02: I like to call her the Lamoda candidate.
• 49:08
  SPEAKER_02: So in first quarter,
• 49:09
  SPEAKER_02: she's raised three hundred and twelve thousand dollars and she's got six hundred
• 49:13
  SPEAKER_02: twenty six thousand on hand.
• 49:16
  SPEAKER_02: She's totally raised 1.24 million, which is a pretty significant number.
• 49:22
  SPEAKER_02: So she's actually spent a lot of money over the course of what she's raised during
• 49:27
  SPEAKER_02: this cycle,
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_02: which I find pretty interesting.
• 49:31
  SPEAKER_02: But obviously, she's building her war chest for the general.
• 49:34
  SPEAKER_02: On the Republican side, we have newcomer Monique Despain.
• 49:40
  SPEAKER_02: She's a lawyer.
• 49:41
  SPEAKER_02: Eugene raised $123,000 in the first quarter,
• 49:46
  SPEAKER_02: has about $125,000 cash on hand,
• 49:48
  SPEAKER_02: so her burn rate to raise is about the same.
• 49:52
  SPEAKER_02: And then she is running against
• 49:57
  SPEAKER_02: candidate,
• 49:57
  SPEAKER_02: Amy Ryan Courser,
• 49:59
  SPEAKER_02: who's been on the ballot before in a different congressional seat,
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_02: which there's some overlap between this.
• 50:05
  SPEAKER_02: I think Lincoln County and some other pieces,
• 50:08
  SPEAKER_02: even in your neck of the woods,
• 50:09
  SPEAKER_02: maybe I'm not sure if it came all the way down to there or not,
• 50:12
  SPEAKER_02: but in redistricting,
• 50:13
  SPEAKER_02: it kind of moved.
• 50:15
  SPEAKER_02: So she's only raised $24,000.
• 50:19
  SPEAKER_02: I think people are looking for a Monique Despain runoff against Val Hoyle in this seat.
• 50:26
  SPEAKER_02: Who takes this one?
• 50:28
  SPEAKER_00: Well, it seems like, and I'll just say this, it seems like the NRCC is putting some effort into...
• 50:34
  SPEAKER_00: Monique to Spain's campaign in terms of,
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_00: first of all,
• 50:37
  SPEAKER_00: they put the CD four in Oregon on their offensive hit list and they did it early.
• 50:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'm looking at the NRCC website,
• 50:44
  SPEAKER_00: March 13th,
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_00: 2023,
• 50:46
  SPEAKER_00: they put oil seat on the pickup list and it's a D plus four seat.
• 50:51
  SPEAKER_00: And so they really, I think the NRCC wants to put themselves in position to win.
• 50:55
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's why they,
• 50:57
  SPEAKER_00: As you mentioned,
• 50:58
  SPEAKER_00: Hoyle spending so much money is she's trying to keep herself outside of the range
• 51:01
  SPEAKER_00: where big money will come in and spend to make this a big fight.
• 51:05
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 51:06
  SPEAKER_00: If you're an incumbent,
• 51:06
  SPEAKER_00: you want to keep yourself in a position to be as far ahead as you can so that they
• 51:11
  SPEAKER_00: have to cut this race late in the summer or in the early fall when they're trying
• 51:15
  SPEAKER_00: to figure out where they're going to spend their limited resources.
• 51:18
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 51:19
  SPEAKER_00: On the Republican side, as I said, NRCC seems a little bit invested into Spain.
• 51:24
  SPEAKER_00: She's got the endorsement of Speaker Mike Johnson,
• 51:26
  SPEAKER_00: so I think it's clear who they want to win in the primary.
• 51:29
  SPEAKER_00: I will say, fun fact about Amy Ryan Courser, she's run in three of Oregon's six congressional districts.
• 51:36
  SPEAKER_00: She ran in Congressional District 5 against Kurt Schrader in 2020.
• 51:40
  SPEAKER_00: She ran in the fifth congressional district primary in 2022.
• 51:47
  SPEAKER_00: And now she's running in six.
• 51:49
  SPEAKER_00: So I don't know if she's got a punch card she's trying to finish or what.
• 51:54
  SPEAKER_00: You and I can take bets on which district she appears in in 2026.
• 51:57
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think that those multiple runs are going to give her enough to get over the
• 52:03
  SPEAKER_00: finish line here with sort of the establishment that seems to position themselves
• 52:08
  SPEAKER_00: behind Monique Despain.
• 52:09
  SPEAKER_00: I will note that Oregon Rights Life has only endorsed Amy Ryan Courser in the primary.
• 52:14
  SPEAKER_02: Well, really, huh?
• 52:15
  SPEAKER_02: Interesting.
• 52:15
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, I didn't know that.
• 52:17
  SPEAKER_02: I do like Amy Ryan Courser.
• 52:19
  SPEAKER_02: I actually donated to her campaign two cycles ago when she was running in five, I think at the time.
• 52:26
  SPEAKER_02: Running against Kurt Schrader.
• 52:27
  SPEAKER_02: Kurt Schrader, yeah.
• 52:28
  SPEAKER_02: So she, I think she's great.
• 52:32
  SPEAKER_02: I think she tries hard.
• 52:33
  SPEAKER_02: Monique seems to be great.
• 52:35
  SPEAKER_02: I think both of them actually are great.
• 52:37
  SPEAKER_02: Or solid females.
• 52:38
  SPEAKER_02: I think Monique's got a pretty decent resume in this race.
• 52:43
  SPEAKER_02: And I think you're right.
• 52:44
  SPEAKER_02: I think the NRCC wants to put who they think is a quality candidate,
• 52:49
  SPEAKER_02: military vet,
• 52:50
  SPEAKER_02: all those sort of things,
• 52:52
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 52:52
  SPEAKER_02: right forward.
• 52:53
  SPEAKER_02: And that'll be interesting.
• 52:54
  SPEAKER_02: And hopefully we'll get Monique on the podcast and we can have an interview with her and stuff.
• 52:58
  SPEAKER_02: And even Valhalla, I'd love to...
• 53:01
  SPEAKER_02: talk to Val about, you know, what her strategy is.
• 53:03
  SPEAKER_02: And she's been fairly liked, I think on the, I would say the establishment side of the world.
• 53:09
  SPEAKER_02: So I'd be kind of curious to see where she's at with this district and CD for,
• 53:13
  SPEAKER_02: cause it is,
• 53:14
  SPEAKER_02: it does count.
• 53:15
  SPEAKER_02: It does carry a lot of rural parts of the state.
• 53:18
  SPEAKER_02: Um, and I would be kind of curious about that, but we'll, uh, we'll circle back to that one.
• 53:22
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, definitely over the summer as we kind of work through these congressionals.
• 53:27
  SPEAKER_02: Um, all right.
• 53:28
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 53:30
  SPEAKER_00: The indicator that Hoyle is liked among Republicans is normally you see state
• 53:34
  SPEAKER_00: legislatures run from the legislature for Congress,
• 53:38
  SPEAKER_00: and you didn't see a sitting state rep.
• 53:40
  SPEAKER_00: And there's plenty of Republican state reps out there that could run for Congress if they wanted to.
• 53:45
  SPEAKER_00: And they clearly chose not to either because they like Val Hoyle or because they
• 53:49
  SPEAKER_00: knew that she was going to run hard,
• 53:51
  SPEAKER_00: which she usually does.
• 53:53
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that that is what required the NRCC to go and recruit a new candidate.
• 53:59
  SPEAKER_00: who's new to politics as opposed to somebody who has some experience running for
• 54:03
  SPEAKER_02: office before yeah that's good well all right so let's get to the fun ones right we
• 54:08
  SPEAKER_02: got two cd5 and cd6 so cd5 laura chavez dreamer won narrow victory against jamie
• 54:16
  SPEAKER_02: mcleod skinner 2022 you know huge race for republicans i mean you could even say
• 54:22
  SPEAKER_02: today it could it could have tilted
• 54:24
  SPEAKER_02: you know, the way Congress has moved.
• 54:27
  SPEAKER_02: Lori has done, I think, an excellent job.
• 54:30
  SPEAKER_02: She's got 1.9 million in the bank today, raised, you know, 600,000 just in first quarter.
• 54:37
  SPEAKER_02: And she's raised a total of 3.14 million.
• 54:39
  SPEAKER_02: So,
• 54:42
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, that's a decent amount of dollars.
• 54:45
  SPEAKER_02: So no, no real problems with Lori.
• 54:48
  SPEAKER_02: We're definitely going to be talking a lot about CD5 in that race.
• 54:53
  SPEAKER_02: And so the fun part is on the Democrat side,
• 54:56
  SPEAKER_02: really,
• 54:56
  SPEAKER_02: where we have Jamie McLeod Skinner running again on the far left side of the ticket.
• 55:02
  SPEAKER_02: And she's raised $313,000 in the first quarter, which is a pretty decent number.
• 55:07
  SPEAKER_02: Or no, she has $313,000 cash on hand.
• 55:09
  SPEAKER_02: Sorry.
• 55:09
  SPEAKER_02: She's raised just shy of $200,000 in the first quarter.
• 55:10
  SPEAKER_02: And Janelle Bynum, who was state representative, we're aware of, total raised $942,000.
• 55:13
  SPEAKER_02: She raised $500,000 in the first quarter and about $560,000 cash.
• 55:16
  SPEAKER_02: So...
• 55:29
  SPEAKER_02: At this point, they both should be burning cash to win this primary.
• 55:33
  SPEAKER_02: Bynum has been endorsed by every mainstream DCCC outfit you can think of because
• 55:41
  SPEAKER_02: they really want Janelle Bynum versus Laurie Chavez-Durimer.
• 55:47
  SPEAKER_02: And JMS is she has been the thorn and Republicans for a while.
• 55:53
  SPEAKER_02: And now she appears to be the thorn in the Democrats for a while.
• 55:57
  SPEAKER_02: So what's your take on this Reagan?
• 55:59
  SPEAKER_02: I kind of feel like I kind of want to see a Bynum Chavez dreamer matchup,
• 56:04
  SPEAKER_02: but I think they would probably,
• 56:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think Chavez dream probably rather see a rematch because they felt they won the
• 56:10
  SPEAKER_02: last time.
• 56:11
  SPEAKER_02: So what's your take here?
• 56:13
  SPEAKER_00: As somebody who cares about historical,
• 56:16
  SPEAKER_00: political,
• 56:18
  SPEAKER_00: just,
• 56:19
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 56:20
  SPEAKER_00: history,
• 56:21
  SPEAKER_00: political history,
• 56:22
  SPEAKER_00: historical political history,
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_00: Brian,
• 56:23
  SPEAKER_00: that's a totally normal phrase to say.
• 56:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think you're rooting for the best.
• 56:27
  SPEAKER_00: If you're rooting for the best possible matchup,
• 56:30
  SPEAKER_00: it's going to be Laurie Chavez,
• 56:32
  SPEAKER_00: Dreamer versus Janelle Biden.
• 56:33
  SPEAKER_00: But I think if you're rooting for the Republican win, it's easier to beat McLeod Skinner.
• 56:40
  SPEAKER_00: I will say there's some folks who think that McLeod Skinner is a slightly stronger
• 56:44
  SPEAKER_00: candidate because she gets the grassroots more energized.
• 56:47
  SPEAKER_00: She's been a grassroots Democrat.
• 56:49
  SPEAKER_00: She's out there, you know, pounding in signs in Ben.
• 56:52
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, the Ben Democrats, they just go crazy for Jamie McLeod Skinner.
• 56:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I don't really know why, but also she's not a candidate that really speaks to me, right?
• 57:04
  SPEAKER_00: But there is some of that.
• 57:06
  SPEAKER_00: energy that she brings that does freak some people out.
• 57:10
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think that Jamie McLeod Skinner, though, has some problems.
• 57:15
  SPEAKER_00: She's had some campaign folks come forward and say, hey, she's not a good boss.
• 57:20
  SPEAKER_00: Greg Walden faced her in 2018.
• 57:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think this is sort of what started it.
• 57:24
  SPEAKER_00: She ran up against Greg Walden and championed the fact that she did better than any
• 57:29
  SPEAKER_00: other Democrat against Greg Walden,
• 57:30
  SPEAKER_00: which is not hard to do.
• 57:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's a low bar.
• 57:33
  SPEAKER_00: You trip over that bar.
• 57:34
  SPEAKER_00: um at walking past but she also had some history in her background she was a city
• 57:40
  SPEAKER_00: uh city manager interim city manager a couple times and had some you know negative
• 57:44
  SPEAKER_00: reports from her staff there um so she seems to be a person that has very
• 57:49
  SPEAKER_00: polarizing views you either really like her or you really do not like her and i
• 57:54
  SPEAKER_00: think that's what d triple c is worried about is
• 57:57
  SPEAKER_00: There's some people that love McLeod Skinner.
• 57:59
  SPEAKER_00: There's some people that just can't even deal with her.
• 58:01
  SPEAKER_00: And some of those people worked on her campaigns.
• 58:03
  SPEAKER_00: And so I think it scares them because they're worried there's more there.
• 58:07
  SPEAKER_00: They had to cut this race and got attacked by McLeod Skinner for doing that at the end.
• 58:13
  SPEAKER_00: And so they just don't want to be in that same position again.
• 58:17
  SPEAKER_00: I also think the Congressional Black Caucus is really trying to,
• 58:19
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 58:20
  SPEAKER_00: grow their numbers and they want Janelle Bynum because she's accomplished state
• 58:24
  SPEAKER_00: representative and they think that she would,
• 58:26
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 58:26
  SPEAKER_00: serve effectively in Congress and they might be right about that so.
• 58:31
  SPEAKER_00: I, I really want to on this one.
• 58:35
  SPEAKER_00: I know that's what I'm going to go.
• 58:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm going to go against the money because I think Bynum is going to have the money.
• 58:43
  SPEAKER_00: But I think the voters are still going to go with Bynum.
• 58:45
  SPEAKER_00: I think it could be close.
• 58:47
  SPEAKER_00: But I think McLeod Skinner's just been on the ballot and starts with such an enormous name ID advantage.
• 58:52
  SPEAKER_00: It's hard to erode.
• 58:54
  SPEAKER_00: And Republicans will get what they want out of this one,
• 58:57
  SPEAKER_00: which is McLeod Skinner,
• 58:58
  SPEAKER_00: sort of a damaged candidate that they can go on the offensive in the fall.
• 59:04
  SPEAKER_00: And I just haven't seen Bynum go after her like she really needs to to knock her down.
• 59:09
  SPEAKER_02: OK, so to your point, she did beat Schrader in that primary.
• 59:13
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, right.
• 59:14
  SPEAKER_02: You know, so you got a good point there.
• 59:16
  SPEAKER_02: And it's hard to go against JMS on this one.
• 59:22
  SPEAKER_02: I do think,
• 59:23
  SPEAKER_02: well,
• 59:23
  SPEAKER_02: I'm going to take Bynum just because,
• 59:25
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 59:25
  SPEAKER_02: we might as well,
• 59:26
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 59:26
  SPEAKER_02: take opposing side.
• 59:27
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah.
• 59:28
  SPEAKER_02: Because if you argue her side of it, she's on TV.
• 59:32
  SPEAKER_02: I think Hakeem Jeffries being in charge of the Dems is definitely a
• 59:39
  SPEAKER_02: why they're pushing her.
• 59:40
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's some desire there.
• 59:42
  SPEAKER_02: I think Bynum has beaten Chavez Dreamer in state rep race twice before back in Happy Valley.
• 59:50
  SPEAKER_02: I think they like that matchup where they're both from the same town.
• 59:54
  SPEAKER_02: I think that the Democrats eke Bynum over the finish line on this one.
• 1:00:00
  SPEAKER_02: The question that I have in the general is do those JMS Democrats
• 1:00:06
  SPEAKER_02: Are they not excited about buying them after she beats them?
• 1:00:09
  SPEAKER_02: And I think that's where the Republicans could have some advantage there.
• 1:00:13
  SPEAKER_02: So I think that's gonna be one to look at.
• 1:00:14
  SPEAKER_02: I think that they come in, I think in the next two weeks, I think we see major TV buys.
• 1:00:21
  SPEAKER_02: to try to get Bynum over the finish line here.
• 1:00:24
  SPEAKER_02: TV and Bend is cheap relative to Portland.
• 1:00:27
  SPEAKER_02: I think they really spend a bunch.
• 1:00:28
  SPEAKER_02: They're on TV here.
• 1:00:29
  SPEAKER_02: I can tell you, I see them.
• 1:00:32
  SPEAKER_02: So I think, I think she edges it up, but I'm with you.
• 1:00:34
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's close race.
• 1:00:36
  SPEAKER_02: It's a very close primary and it's going to be,
• 1:00:38
  SPEAKER_02: that could be a seven day after ballot counter right there.
• 1:00:42
  SPEAKER_02: So that's the case.
• 1:00:44
  SPEAKER_02: And the edge goes to Bynum because we know what happens there.
• 1:00:48
  SPEAKER_02: so let's move on to CD6 I know we're getting a little long in the podcast so we'll
• 1:00:52
  SPEAKER_02: try to get to this CD6 one real quick Andrea Salinas she barely beat Mike Erickson
• 1:00:58
  SPEAKER_02: last time
• 1:01:00
  SPEAKER_02: Salinas won a slew of primary challengers,
• 1:01:04
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:01:05
  SPEAKER_02: had all the guys with millions of dollars,
• 1:01:08
  SPEAKER_02: all the Cody Reynolds.
• 1:01:09
  SPEAKER_02: The crypto bros.
• 1:01:11
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah, like all these guys, all the different folks with a bunch of money.
• 1:01:15
  SPEAKER_02: Sam Bankman Freed was involved in that primary.
• 1:01:17
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, we had all the things in that last one.
• 1:01:20
  SPEAKER_02: Erickson won the Republican primary.
• 1:01:22
  SPEAKER_02: So this crazy open seat in 2022.
• 1:01:24
  SPEAKER_02: Now it looks like we're just going to have a matchup, a rematch.
• 1:01:27
  SPEAKER_02: uh after all of that we basically get a rematch erickson lost by 8 000 votes or so
• 1:01:32
  SPEAKER_02: 9 000 votes ended up being pretty close and they drug erickson through the mud so
• 1:01:39
  SPEAKER_02: selena's total raised 2.3 million she's got 1.6 million in the bank she raised 717
• 1:01:43
  SPEAKER_02: 000 in the first quarter so she's raising money now um
• 1:01:52
  SPEAKER_02: Her only primary challenge really is that Cody Reynolds guy, but he doesn't appear to be doing anything.
• 1:01:58
  SPEAKER_02: So he spent $2 million in the last primary, and now he's filed again.
• 1:02:01
  SPEAKER_02: He's done nothing.
• 1:02:02
  SPEAKER_02: So I don't know what that strategy is.
• 1:02:05
  SPEAKER_02: I guess that's a losing strategy is what we call that.
• 1:02:09
  SPEAKER_02: Erickson came in late, said he's going to run, cleared the field.
• 1:02:13
  SPEAKER_02: Everybody got out of the way.
• 1:02:15
  SPEAKER_02: That was thinking about running.
• 1:02:17
  SPEAKER_02: uh mike's only raised about 117 000 he loaned himself 2.8 million last time uh will
• 1:02:25
  SPEAKER_02: he again that is the question so there's really no primary to discuss in this race
• 1:02:32
  SPEAKER_02: so what my question to you on this one reagan is really more what are you looking
• 1:02:38
  SPEAKER_02: for over the course of the summer
• 1:02:41
  SPEAKER_02: I think to see where this one shapes out in the general,
• 1:02:44
  SPEAKER_02: I think this is a good one to kind of,
• 1:02:46
  SPEAKER_02: when we circle back to these congressionals to like,
• 1:02:48
  SPEAKER_02: what are we looking for with these races?
• 1:02:51
  SPEAKER_00: Well, you got, so you've got, these are the three close ones.
• 1:02:54
  SPEAKER_00: You've got Hoyles D plus four, Chavez Dreamer D plus two district and Salinas also D plus four.
• 1:03:01
  SPEAKER_00: I think the challenge for me is that a D plus four in the, you know, Portland suburbs, Yamhill,
• 1:03:11
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know what other big regions are in this district.
• 1:03:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's so new.
• 1:03:14
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't feel like I know it that well,
• 1:03:16
  SPEAKER_00: but you just,
• 1:03:18
  SPEAKER_00: it feels like it was so crazy the first time because it was just brand new and
• 1:03:22
  SPEAKER_00: nobody knew what to do with it.
• 1:03:24
  SPEAKER_00: It was just, it was just a total wild card, brand new district and all that stuff.
• 1:03:28
  SPEAKER_00: Now that it's here and she's there, she's got that incumbency advantage a little bit.
• 1:03:32
  SPEAKER_00: She isn't a far left flamethrower.
• 1:03:34
  SPEAKER_00: I think that Erickson's got to be prepared to like maybe double his spend and
• 1:03:40
  SPEAKER_00: And if he does that, he can keep it serious.
• 1:03:43
  SPEAKER_00: But I have a hard time seeing this one being competitive in the fall.
• 1:03:47
  SPEAKER_00: I think it's weird to say this,
• 1:03:50
  SPEAKER_00: but I think the fourth is more likely to be competitive in the fall just because it
• 1:03:53
  SPEAKER_00: takes in more of a different rural area that's trending more.
• 1:03:57
  SPEAKER_00: And that coastal area that's trending a bit more Republican.
• 1:04:00
  SPEAKER_00: And this is that,
• 1:04:01
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:04:02
  SPEAKER_00: Portland,
• 1:04:03
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:04:03
  SPEAKER_00: these kind of not they're not Portland suburbs,
• 1:04:05
  SPEAKER_00: but it's where all the Portlanders are going to live.
• 1:04:08
  SPEAKER_00: And it's going to trend more blue is just how I'm thinking about it.
• 1:04:13
  SPEAKER_00: That's my handicap early.
• 1:04:14
  SPEAKER_02: That's a very, very decent take.
• 1:04:17
  SPEAKER_02: I think here's listen, I'm I've known Mike for 20 years, 25 years, probably at this point.
• 1:04:25
  SPEAKER_02: I didn't know you know that long.
• 1:04:26
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:04:27
  SPEAKER_02: No, back when I was in college, I knew Mike.
• 1:04:29
  SPEAKER_02: Wow.
• 1:04:31
  SPEAKER_02: And I like Mike,
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_02: but I mean,
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_02: there,
• 1:04:32
  SPEAKER_02: there's a reason why the NRTC was trying to find somebody else to run because they
• 1:04:38
  SPEAKER_02: don't like his resume.
• 1:04:39
  SPEAKER_02: They don't like the TV as it's leanest ran against him last time.
• 1:04:43
  SPEAKER_02: And then just doubling down on that crap again and just blowing them up.
• 1:04:49
  SPEAKER_02: I don't think they come in and give Mike any money because
• 1:04:53
  SPEAKER_02: So unless Mike is willing to spend his own money again, I'm with you.
• 1:04:56
  SPEAKER_02: I think this one going away, D. And I don't think Mike's willing to give himself that money again.
• 1:05:02
  SPEAKER_02: I just don't see it.
• 1:05:05
  SPEAKER_02: unless Mike could find a bunch of people in that district.
• 1:05:08
  SPEAKER_02: And there's a lot of Republican donors that live in that district,
• 1:05:11
  SPEAKER_02: unless he can figure out a way to come up with some messaging and some ways to show
• 1:05:16
  SPEAKER_02: these other donors to start giving them 3,300 bucks a piece and really show that groundswell.
• 1:05:22
  SPEAKER_02: I don't see why,
• 1:05:23
  SPEAKER_02: what would give me the advantage if I'm running races,
• 1:05:26
  SPEAKER_02: congressionally to come into this race with a rematch,
• 1:05:30
  SPEAKER_02: just to see the same thing play out again.
• 1:05:32
  SPEAKER_02: And I think I agree with you.
• 1:05:33
  SPEAKER_02: There's a lot of Portland Democrats moving out into Yamhill County and some of
• 1:05:37
  SPEAKER_02: those areas,
• 1:05:39
  SPEAKER_02: voting,
• 1:05:39
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:05:40
  SPEAKER_02: voting,
• 1:05:41
  SPEAKER_02: bringing their politics with them,
• 1:05:42
  SPEAKER_02: right?
• 1:05:42
  SPEAKER_02: So I think this one, I'm with you.
• 1:05:44
  SPEAKER_02: I think four could end up being probably closer than six.
• 1:05:48
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's a little more hanging over Val Hoyle's head.
• 1:05:51
  SPEAKER_02: I think there's more to attack the Democrats.
• 1:05:53
  SPEAKER_02: Salinas,
• 1:05:55
  SPEAKER_02: there's nothing really to like jump on board with,
• 1:05:57
  SPEAKER_02: but there's nothing to like to throw her overboard with.
• 1:06:00
  SPEAKER_02: So I just kind of feel like this one, we're going to probably end up not talking about to be honest.
• 1:06:08
  SPEAKER_02: I think it's going to be, uh, kind of become kind of a, a nothing race to be honest with you.
• 1:06:13
  SPEAKER_02: So that's, uh,
• 1:06:15
  SPEAKER_02: So I'll probably get a call from Mike on that, but that's kind of my take on it.
• 1:06:20
  SPEAKER_02: At the end of the day,
• 1:06:20
  SPEAKER_02: if we would have had somebody hop into this race,
• 1:06:24
  SPEAKER_02: that was a new fresh face,
• 1:06:26
  SPEAKER_02: a new R that could have brought a new sense of levity and,
• 1:06:31
  SPEAKER_02: and excitement to this CD6 race.
• 1:06:33
  SPEAKER_02: I think we could have saw a different outcome here,
• 1:06:38
  SPEAKER_02: but I'm going to call this one early and say,
• 1:06:39
  SPEAKER_02: I bet Salinas ends up winning this one probably by three points,
• 1:06:44
  SPEAKER_02: three and a half points.
• 1:06:45
  SPEAKER_02: In congressional races, that's actually a pretty wide margin.
• 1:06:50
  SPEAKER_00: I think if I saw Erickson drop a press release and he said,
• 1:06:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm dropping $2 million now and I'm not afraid to spend more,
• 1:06:56
  SPEAKER_00: I would keep this on my radar.
• 1:06:58
  SPEAKER_00: But if you don't know that that money is coming right,
• 1:07:01
  SPEAKER_00: and I mean,
• 1:07:01
  SPEAKER_00: it allows them to hide it until later,
• 1:07:04
  SPEAKER_00: which might be a strategy decision.
• 1:07:06
  SPEAKER_00: But at the end of the day,
• 1:07:07
  SPEAKER_00: I think for the national groups to make decisions,
• 1:07:10
  SPEAKER_00: they got to know he's all the way in.
• 1:07:12
  SPEAKER_00: And I think if they don't see the money showing up today,
• 1:07:15
  SPEAKER_00: it's hard for them to know if he's all the way in.
• 1:07:18
  SPEAKER_00: And I think they'd want to see him raising local money anyway.
• 1:07:21
  SPEAKER_00: That's the other thing.
• 1:07:22
  SPEAKER_02: Yeah.
• 1:07:23
  SPEAKER_02: And I think there's just, there's gotta be, I think the Republican map out there nationally.
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: And,
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:29
  SPEAKER_02: I've followed just a little bit of where we're looking at,
• 1:07:33
  SPEAKER_02: but looking at the races that are out there nationally,
• 1:07:36
  SPEAKER_02: where Republicans are trying to hold and where they have some potential pickups,
• 1:07:41
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:41
  SPEAKER_02: their holds is pretty deep.
• 1:07:43
  SPEAKER_02: The number of holes they got to spend a lot of money on.
• 1:07:46
  SPEAKER_02: And then, so they're going to be very picky about where they spend their dollars on their pickups.
• 1:07:51
  SPEAKER_02: And I just think this one falls down to the bottom of that list,
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_02: you know,
• 1:07:56
  SPEAKER_02: becomes kind of a B kind of pickup instead of an A pickup.
• 1:08:00
  SPEAKER_02: So, but it's a good idea if Mike was willing to throw in, you know, 2 million, 3, 4 million.
• 1:08:05
  SPEAKER_02: I mean, yeah, sure.
• 1:08:06
  SPEAKER_02: I think it becomes competitive.
• 1:08:08
  SPEAKER_02: Money changes the scenario, but I just don't see it at this point.
• 1:08:13
  SPEAKER_02: But prove me wrong, Mike, prove me wrong.
• 1:08:15
  SPEAKER_02: So-
• 1:08:17
  SPEAKER_02: Anyways, that's our congressional take on it.
• 1:08:19
  SPEAKER_02: I think we had a couple of where we disagreed on that'll be on Democrat primaries.
• 1:08:23
  SPEAKER_02: We'll see how the how Republicans political consultants did on Democrat primary handicapping.
• 1:08:28
  SPEAKER_02: We'll have some way more fun,
• 1:08:31
  SPEAKER_02: I think,
• 1:08:31
  SPEAKER_02: in the legislative races that we'll talk about next next episode on.
• 1:08:37
  SPEAKER_02: the state legislative, uh, I I'm involved in some of these, you're involved in some of these.
• 1:08:41
  SPEAKER_02: So I think we'll have a little bit more, we have a little bit more inside takes on some of these.
• 1:08:45
  SPEAKER_02: So I would hope everybody would circle back and listen to that podcast.
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_02: Of course,
• 1:08:51
  SPEAKER_02: we're going to wait to put that one out until a little bit closer to the actual May 21st,
• 1:08:57
  SPEAKER_02: because,
• 1:08:58
  SPEAKER_02: uh,
• 1:08:59
  SPEAKER_02: obviously we don't want to give away secrets or anything that we may or may not have.
• 1:09:03
  SPEAKER_02: So, uh,
• 1:09:05
  SPEAKER_02: That's kind of the end of my take.
• 1:09:06
  SPEAKER_02: What's yours, Reagan?
• 1:09:07
  SPEAKER_02: Final take from you?
• 1:09:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think the Democrats,
• 1:09:12
  SPEAKER_00: I've said a couple of people this statewide,
• 1:09:14
  SPEAKER_00: they're trying to put adults in charge.
• 1:09:16
  SPEAKER_00: Tobias Reed's very clearly an adult.
• 1:09:19
  SPEAKER_00: Steiner's an adult.
• 1:09:20
  SPEAKER_00: Dan Rayfield's an adult.
• 1:09:21
  SPEAKER_00: Their real problem is in the next 10 years,
• 1:09:23
  SPEAKER_00: they've got a lot of non-adults in the legislature out there trying to throw fire
• 1:09:28
  SPEAKER_00: instead of make policy.
• 1:09:29
  SPEAKER_00: And I think that that is what could change their party and put them in a position
• 1:09:34
  SPEAKER_00: to lose the state long term.
• 1:09:36
  SPEAKER_00: And I think there's a lot of people on the Democratic side of the aisle.
• 1:09:38
  SPEAKER_00: They're strategists.
• 1:09:39
  SPEAKER_00: They're longtime party people who are kind of looking at that and they're squinting
• 1:09:42
  SPEAKER_00: their eyes going,
• 1:09:44
  SPEAKER_00: this could be not good.
• 1:09:45
  SPEAKER_00: But for the time being, they seem to have picked some pretty strong candidates.
• 1:09:50
  SPEAKER_00: And even at the congressional level, for the most part, they're going to do OK.
• 1:09:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's that bench that they're building that is very worrisome for them, I'm expecting.
• 1:10:00
  SPEAKER_02: Well, on that note, I think we've said enough.
• 1:10:03
  SPEAKER_02: That's for sure.
• 1:10:04
  SPEAKER_02: People can move on to some other podcasts now.
• 1:10:08
  SPEAKER_02: But hopefully you guys will come back and take a listen to Crosstabs again.
• 1:10:13
  SPEAKER_02: I've enjoyed this.
• 1:10:14
  SPEAKER_02: I always enjoy talking to my...
• 1:10:17
  SPEAKER_02: Friend Reagan can open and I think it's fun to dive into this stuff a little bit
• 1:10:21
  SPEAKER_02: deeper hopefully we've given you some insight and feel free to follow me on Twitter
• 1:10:26
  SPEAKER_02: at Brian G Iverson and Reagan is at.
• 1:10:32
  SPEAKER_00: Reagan Canope on Twitter.
• 1:10:34
  SPEAKER_00: And eventually we're going to put something up at our fancy domain name,
• 1:10:38
  SPEAKER_00: crosstabs.studio,
• 1:10:40
  SPEAKER_00: because when you do a podcast,
• 1:10:42
  SPEAKER_00: you do it in a studio.
• 1:10:44
  SPEAKER_00: We're not going to show you our studio, but you can imagine what it looks like.
• 1:10:49
  SPEAKER_00: You can imagine that Brian and I have a fun studio here with,
• 1:10:54
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 1:10:54
  SPEAKER_00: backroom and cigars where we make all the decisions.
• 1:10:58
  SPEAKER_00: Right, Brian?
• 1:10:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's how politics works.
• 1:11:00
  SPEAKER_02: Coming soon.
• 1:11:03
  SPEAKER_03: Right on.
• 1:11:03
  SPEAKER_03: All right.
• 1:11:03
  SPEAKER_03: Take care, everybody.
• 1:11:04
  SPEAKER_03: Thank you.
• 1:11:14
  SPEAKER_03: We're clear to engage.
• 1:11:15
  SPEAKER_03: Time on target.
• 1:11:16
  Five mics.