Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 9/15/26: Trump Panics On AI Slowdown, Bonds Hit 19 Year High, Trump 5k Checks

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9/15/26: Trump Panics On AI Slowdown, Bonds Hit 19 Year High, Trump 5k Checks · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

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  Speaker 2: But enough with that, let's get to the show. Good morning, everybody.
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  Speaker 2: Happy Tuesday. Have an amazing show for everybody today. What
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: do we have, Crystal?
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: Indeed we do.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: We are tracking a major Trump crash out over on
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: True Social over two big topics, AI and also the
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Iran war. Garrison Lovely is going to join us to
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: break down the very latest with regard to AI. Then
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: we'll also take a look. at what Trump is saying
• 0:43
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  Speaker 2: go ahead and kick it to Garrison. We just recorded
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: a great interview with him.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: Joining us now to talk about the very latest with
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: Trump's AI crashout is Garrison Lovely. He is a journalist
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: and author of the still forthcoming book, although we've been
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: talking about it for a while at this point, Obsolete,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: the AI industry's trillion-dollar race to replace us and how
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: to stop it.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: And great friend of the show. Great to see you, Garrison,
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: in person.
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: Good to see you, man.
• 2:45
  Speaker 4: Great to be here. This is fun.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Yeah, of course.
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: So yesterday, Trump epic crash out on a number of fronts.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: We'll get to the Iran war piece of that later.
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: But let's start with the AI focus. Bunch of true
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: social posts. But also he called into an all in
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: public event that was happening with the head of NVIDIA,
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: Jensen Huang, to say that the concerns over AI sort
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: of existential risk are a, quote, hoax.
• 3:10
  Speaker 3: Let's go ahead and take a listen to a little
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: bit of that.
• 3:11
  Speaker 4: I don't know who it is.
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Oh, no.
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: Oh, it's Trump.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: Oh, shit. Mr.
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: President?
• 3:18
  Speaker 5: Yes, sir.
• 3:20
  Speaker 4: I got to tell you something.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: If it wasn't because of you calling, I'm on stage
• 3:30
  Speaker 3: with the besties.
• 3:31
  Speaker 5: The great thing about life.
• 3:31
  Speaker 6: Is that Jensen can develop the most complex computers in
• 3:36
  Speaker 6: the world that nobody can count.
• 3:42
  Speaker 5: I can't figure out how to put.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Me on speaker. And I'm telling you it's all a hoax.
• 3:46
  Speaker 5: The data centers are great and they make people wealthy
• 3:49
  Speaker 5: and they make states wealthy and it's the oil of
• 3:52
  Speaker 5: the next 20.
• 3:53
  Speaker 7: 25 years.
• 3:53
  Speaker 5: It's bigger than the internet and AI, you know, much
• 3:57
  Speaker 5: more so. And they're just playing right into the hands
• 4:01
  Speaker 5: of a lot of people that don't want to see
• 4:04
  Speaker 5: it happen. That could be political people, it could also
• 4:07
  Speaker 5: be China.
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: Told you.
• 4:10
  Speaker 5: It's a hoax.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: You're right.
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: We're not going to let that happen, sir.
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: The robots will not be taking over.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: The AI will not be taking over the rest of
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: the world.
• 4:20
  Speaker 2: The whole thing is a hoax.
• 4:21
  Speaker 5: There are communities that we're telling that have data centers.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: Right now and now they're wealthy communities.
• 4:30
  Speaker 5: Really wealthy communities.
• 4:31
  Speaker 7: We're going to make sure that.
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: Everybody wins in the AI race in America. Every industry,
• 4:36
  Speaker 2: every company, every state, every people.
• 4:39
  Speaker 7: All right.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: A lot going on in that clip.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: You know, Jensen Huang deciding to take this call on
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: the stage. You've got all the all in guys there.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: Trump saying it's a hoax.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: You know, what do you make of this moment and
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: why Trump responded so vigorously yesterday to some of these concerns?
• 4:53
  Speaker 8: Yeah, it's always risky to talk about what's happening inside
• 4:56
  Speaker 8: Donald Trump's head. But I think you could see this
• 4:59
  Speaker 8: as like maybe the February, March 2020 reaction from Trump
• 5:02
  Speaker 8: to covid, where he's sort of like, oh, it's a hoax,
• 5:06
  Speaker 8: dismissing it. And then, you know, this could be cope
• 5:08
  Speaker 8: from people who really want there to be action on AI,
• 5:11
  Speaker 8: especially with China. But he might come around if the
• 5:15
  Speaker 8: pressures continue. And I think there's a lot of worry that, like,
• 5:18
  Speaker 8: he's going to polarize his base against AI regulations or
• 5:21
  Speaker 8: against the concept of AI safety.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: But I think this issue has become salient enough.
• 5:26
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 5:27
  Speaker 4: And the base is like.
• 5:28
  Speaker 8: Skeptical enough of the technology that it's going to be
• 5:32
  Speaker 8: hard for him to really command anyone but the.
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: Most loyal followers.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: Very similar to the data center thing, where you have
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: a huge polarization against data centers. Trump comes out. He's actually,
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: we can put the next one up here on the screen.
• 5:43
  Speaker 2: He kind of links a lot of these things together
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: in kind of the crash out that Crystal alluded to.
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: So this was his longest post yesterday. Concerning AI, when
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: in the history of business, did anyone see the leaders
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: of an industry call for regulation that if strongly implemented
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: will drive them into oblivion and bankruptcy? AI taking over
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: the world, destroying humanity, and all other things bad is, quote,
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: a hoax, no different than Russia, Russia, Russia. All the
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: other hoaxes and scams. President Xi of China just announced
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: China will be doing absolutely nothing to stand in the AI.
• 6:09
  Speaker 2: That's not true.
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: I'll get to that in a little bit.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: Google has announced, stated that they want to build a
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: massive plant in Finland, all because they are finding permitting
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: too difficult. I'm not happy about this. I want them
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: to change their thinking. AI and data centers will be
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: the greatest economic development engine in history, bigger than oil, gold, diamonds,
• 6:25
  Speaker 2: or even the internet. It will not be stopped. by
• 6:28
  Speaker 2: brilliantly run destructive forces during the term of President Donald J. Trump.
• 6:32
  Speaker 2: So this is what's kind of fascinating about this. Dario
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: and Sam basically come out, they're begging for regulation, rhetorically. Now,
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: lobbying in Washington is a different story. They're not actually
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: lobbying for that. To help us break this down, is
• 6:46
  Speaker 2: this a regulatory capture scheme? Because I have a lot
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: of skepticism around these people. They want regulatory capture. I
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: think they want bailouts. They've said a lot of this stuff.
• 6:55
  Speaker 4: Out in the open.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: I do think that there's a sincerity to some of
• 6:58
  Speaker 2: their warnings. I do also think a lot of it
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: is to preserve at least some of their monopoly, or
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: at the very least, let them be the people who
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: are in charge of this. So you studied a lot
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: longer than I have. There's a lot of dynamics to
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: try to break it all down.
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: Yeah.
• 7:13
  Speaker 8: I think that they genuinely do want to slow down
• 7:16
  Speaker 8: because they're going so fast that they cannot actually keep
• 7:19
  Speaker 8: their system safe. And they're barreling towards this very uncertain future.
• 7:24
  Speaker 8: And they still want to build what they're trying to build,
• 7:26
  Speaker 8: which is universal labor replacing machines. They call it artificial
• 7:30
  Speaker 8: general intelligence. And even in Dario's post about pacing the frontier,
• 7:34
  Speaker 8: he's like, we don't want to stop, right? Like, we
• 7:36
  Speaker 8: just want to be more responsible in how we're building this.
• 7:39
  Speaker 8: And he'll have these subtle things where it's like, you know,
• 7:41
  Speaker 8: we should have the public deciding how this technology is used.
• 7:45
  Speaker 8: And it's like, well, the public should decide what technology
• 7:47
  Speaker 8: is built in the first place. And they want to
• 7:50
  Speaker 8: be the ones in control of this, ultimately. And they
• 7:53
  Speaker 8: see themselves as like earning that right by virtue of
• 7:56
  Speaker 8: being the most reckless and willing to build this technology
• 8:00
  Speaker 8: that nobody asked for. And everybody who's building it agrees
• 8:03
  Speaker 8: is unsafe and has no plan of how to make
• 8:06
  Speaker 8: it go well. Um, and so I, I get the
• 8:09
  Speaker 8: skepticism about like this being a cartel or some, you
• 8:13
  Speaker 8: get out of antitrust jail free.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: Card, which he said, right. To be fair, he literally
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: said that.
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: Yeah. And like, I don't know.
• 8:20
  Speaker 8: I think that there should be some way for them
• 8:22
  Speaker 8: to coordinate to slow down the progress of frontier model development.
• 8:29
  Speaker 8: But I think that it shouldn't be up to them.
• 8:31
  Speaker 8: It should be up to the public. And if we
• 8:33
  Speaker 8: had a responsive government, we could have just a pause.
• 8:36
  Speaker 8: And a reevaluation of like which direction we want this
• 8:38
  Speaker 8: technology to go. And I think it's pretty clear that
• 8:41
  Speaker 8: the public does not want the direction the industry is
• 8:43
  Speaker 8: trying to build.
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: Yeah, no doubt about it.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: And with bipartisan majorities based on the polling that we've seen,
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: I mean, as close to 70 percent of the public
• 8:49
  Speaker 1: that supports Bernie's bill to pause altogether and to criminalize
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: the creation of superintelligence. I mean, that's overwhelmingly where the
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: public is. You know, with regard to Trump, to me,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear what's going on here. our entire economies
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: is bet on AI. And yesterday, the market started to
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: take a downturn. At the same time, oil prices are
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: growing up. Treasury bond yields are going up. Like, it's
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: a very precarious time for the domestic and global economy.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: And that's the one thing he does actually care about.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: He watches the markets very closely. So I think yesterday's
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: panicked truth social spree and calling into Jensen Huang and
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: all of that was a reaction to the fact that
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: you could easily see a sell-off cycle that gains a
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: momentum and truly triggers a crash based on these concerns.
• 9:37
  Speaker 8: Yeah, I think that's right. I think he's trying to
• 9:39
  Speaker 8: calm the markets. I think one of the few consistent
• 9:42
  Speaker 8: traits Trump has had in this term has been chickening
• 9:45
  Speaker 8: out when the markets start to react too strongly to
• 9:47
  Speaker 8: something he's done. And this fear of like, if we
• 9:50
  Speaker 8: pause or stop, frontier AI progress, then the main engine
• 9:54
  Speaker 8: of the American economy and the data center bill being
• 9:57
  Speaker 8: a big part of that as well just stops. And
• 10:00
  Speaker 8: I think this is a major problem for him, for
• 10:03
  Speaker 8: any future president. And I'd love to see more work
• 10:06
  Speaker 8: done on what that looks like. You know, what are
• 10:09
  Speaker 8: the actual effects? Because if Trump tries to do anything.
• 10:12
  Speaker 8: Jensen's going to be in his ear being like, you're
• 10:14
  Speaker 8: going to wreck the economy.
• 10:15
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about that. So I did some background research.
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: What I found out is that literally weeks ago, Trump
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: was supposed to sign this executive order. This executive order
• 10:26
  Speaker 2: would have proposed something like FINRA. So this was a
• 10:29
  Speaker 2: idea that was actually bubbled up by Scott Besson. FINRA
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: is a, I forget the exact term, what is it,
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: like financial, whatever, it's a regulatory authority, like a governing body, which,
• 10:39
  Speaker 2: where you would submit models for testing, very similar actually
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: to the Chinese system, where all the models have to
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: go through pre-approval before they're allowed to be released into public,
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: even via open source. This was then floated around to
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: the AI industry. Zuckerberg called Trump and was like, no,
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: you can't do this. That's the real reason that it
• 10:58
  Speaker 2: went down, in addition to some lobbying efforts. So just
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: to be clear, even in the administration, from what I've
• 11:03
  Speaker 2: been able to find out, is that there was an
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: idea to propose some sort of governing model authority, quasi-FDA,
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: but it would have been entirely done by the regulatory authority.
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: But it's the Jensen Wangs and it's the Zuckerbergs who
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: are on the other side of it. What's fascinating.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: Altman also, by the way, spoke to Trump at the
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: GOP convention in Texas.
• 11:26
  Speaker 3: And as much as.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: He's out there, you know, out front, oh, I agree
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: with Dario. We know they've been lobbying against any regulation.
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: So that's where they've actually been.
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: Right.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: There's an organization here in Washington. I think it's called
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: Leading the Future, which all they do is lobby against
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: some sort of a FINRA instead of. And so that's why,
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: you know, trying to I think there's so much public
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: skepticism right now. The overwhelming sense I get, and I
• 11:48
  Speaker 2: want you to break these two things down. So from
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: the left, largely what we hear is this is all bullshit,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: is that this technology is fake. All they're trying to
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: do is to stop, model, and frontier development to save
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: their financials because if they have to continue going forward,
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: they're going to need to bail out. I don't know
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: how true that is. I personally don't think that's really
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: true just based on what the researchers are saying. The
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: one I am somewhat sympathetic to is that this is
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: some sort of effective altruism cult thing. And that this
• 12:14
  Speaker 2: cult believes that they themselves should be solely in charge
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: of this technology, create the regulatory capture, like I said,
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: and then from that point forward that they can then
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: write the regulations, have no sort of democratic influence. input.
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: So sort through those things, what true fact, et cetera.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: And guys, you could throw a seven up on the
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: screen here. This is the Department of War tweet about
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: effective altruists, which I guarantee you 99% of Americans have
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: no idea what that is.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: I think 99.9.
• 12:43
  Speaker 7: Yeah.
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, Harrison. Yeah.
• 12:45
  Speaker 8: No, it is certainly strange to see their kind of
• 12:49
  Speaker 8: beefs spilling out into the official Department of War accounts.
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: Yes, indeed.
• 12:54
  Speaker 8: And Pete Hegseth talked about defective altruism, I believe, during
• 12:57
  Speaker 8: the Anthropic Showdown. And so, yeah, I think that the
• 13:02
  Speaker 8: effective altruism community has been one of the earliest to
• 13:05
  Speaker 8: taking AI seriously. And it's a group of people trying
• 13:08
  Speaker 8: to do good with their time and money, but they've
• 13:11
  Speaker 8: been associated with, like, Sam Beckman Freed was the most
• 13:13
  Speaker 8: famous proponent of it and famously did a bunch of
• 13:16
  Speaker 8: financial fraud. And it's been condemned by leaders in the community,
• 13:20
  Speaker 8: but I think the kind of maximalist, maximize the amount
• 13:24
  Speaker 8: of money you can make and then give away was
• 13:26
  Speaker 8: this mentality.
• 13:27
  Speaker 2: Maximize money and power. Even though you did fraud, you
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: made the amount of money, so that way you can
• 13:32
  Speaker 2: spend it on the right stuff.
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: It can lead to a very ends justify the means
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: kind of a mentality and also prioritizing theoretical future humans
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: over human beings today.
• 13:42
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
• 13:43
  Speaker 8: And so a lot of EAs have been early to
• 13:46
  Speaker 8: this AI thing, and there are a lot of people
• 13:48
  Speaker 8: at Anthropic who are sympathetic to effective altruism, But there
• 13:50
  Speaker 8: are a lot of people in effective altruism and AI
• 13:52
  Speaker 8: safety who are like, shut it down.
• 13:54
  Speaker 4: We don't want.
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we interviewed Nate Suarez yesterday.
• 13:56
  Speaker 9: Yes, yeah.
• 13:57
  Speaker 8: And Nate is not exactly an EA, but he's... Adjacent. Yeah,
• 14:01
  Speaker 8: and he kind of proceeds... A lot of AI safety
• 14:03
  Speaker 8: precedes effective altruism. But yeah, I think there's just a
• 14:07
  Speaker 8: lot of mixed opinions here. And I would guess the
• 14:10
  Speaker 8: bulk of the opinion is on stop, just don't build it.
• 14:14
  Speaker 8: I do think the anthropic model is build it and
• 14:16
  Speaker 8: be in control of it, and we are the ones
• 14:18
  Speaker 8: who can do it safely. And I think this is
• 14:20
  Speaker 8: incredibly naive, both because it's very difficult to build smarter
• 14:25
  Speaker 8: than human machines that will do what you want and
• 14:28
  Speaker 8: not have unpredictable, undesirable outcomes for the world. And then
• 14:32
  Speaker 8: also just the government is going to get control of
• 14:34
  Speaker 8: the systems and they're going to use it for whatever
• 14:36
  Speaker 8: they want, which is not going to be compatible with
• 14:39
  Speaker 8: like anthropics worldview, right? Like with Claude, you know, they're
• 14:42
  Speaker 8: trying to get Claude to be useful for lethal autonomous
• 14:45
  Speaker 8: weapons or mass surveillance. And there's this fight and anthropics
• 14:48
  Speaker 8: sort of won, but the government could just get the
• 14:50
  Speaker 8: models and then take the safeguards off and use it
• 14:53
  Speaker 8: for whatever they want.
• 14:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 14:54
  Speaker 1: And that's why I do think that Dario, as much
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: as obviously all of their motivations should be suspect and
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: it matters what they're thinking, but it also doesn't like we, yes,
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: they're all cross conflicted. And obviously Jensen Huang being up.
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: There like, no, there's no concerns. Keep buying my chips.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: Like that's obviously also very self-interested. So we should put
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: everybody's self-interest.
• 15:16
  Speaker 3: Aside and just ask as a society.
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 15:18
  Speaker 3: What do we want, right?
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Forget about what the tech oligarchs are hyping or not hyping. Like,
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: what is it that we actually want from this technology?
• 15:25
  Speaker 1: And I think that's a really important way to sort
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: of sort through some of the noise from right now.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I will say I was listening to Jacob Coxon, who
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: was the whistleblower who left Anthropic and posted that long
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: Twitter thread that kind of led to this moment and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of others coming forward who were still at
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: the labs being like, Jacob's right, and then obviously Dario
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: and Sam Altman and Elon Musk and Demis Hassab is
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: also coming on being basically like, yes, we agree, we
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: need to do something here. I was listening to Jacob
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: this morning, and he was saying, you know, I decided
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: to leave, but it wasn't clear to me that, and
• 15:59
  Speaker 1: it's still not clear to me, that that was actually
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: the right thing to do.
• 16:03
  Speaker 3: Because.
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: So many people have already left and sounded the alarm
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: and it didn't matter at all. The technology, the technological
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: progress just continued to march forward. And so there are
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: people that are still in the labs who have made
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: the other calculus of I share these deep concerns. And
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: many of them obviously came forward and said that. But
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: if I leave, I don't know that that matters. I
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: think the technology just continues marching forward. It made me
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: more sympathetic. I don't think that's the right calculus, but
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: it did make me more sympathetic to their position and
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: even the position of Dario, who knows Sam very well.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: And Sam, by all accounts, is like a liar and
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: a psychopath.
• 16:43
  Speaker 3: And we can see.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: That even though I disagree with the biggest thing I
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: disagree with with Dario is like his butt China, you know, hawkishness, etc.,
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: But we can see in the way that they lobby
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: and spend money and the actions that they've taken in
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: the real world, the Department of War example being the
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: prime one, they don't behave exactly the same. So it
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: gave me more sympathy to Dario's position, even as I
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: still think it's insane, that you genuinely believe you are
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: building a tech that could destroy all of humanity, and
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: yet you continue.
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: To build it.
• 17:14
  Speaker 9: Yeah.
• 17:14
  Speaker 8: I mean, the starting premise for these companies and for
• 17:16
  Speaker 8: Dario and for Sam is that it's inevitable that somebody
• 17:19
  Speaker 8: will build this. So all of the action is in
• 17:22
  Speaker 8: who builds it, how they do it, when it happens.
• 17:25
  Speaker 8: And I think that's just a view a lot of
• 17:27
  Speaker 8: people share. They either think AI is impossible or it's inevitable.
• 17:31
  Speaker 8: And I think it's this narrow path. It's like, no,
• 17:33
  Speaker 8: we can shape it, we can control it, we can
• 17:35
  Speaker 8: stop it. But it is actually possible for them to
• 17:38
  Speaker 8: build these machines that can replace us fully.
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: I saw an interview you gave, which I framed in
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: exactly the way I think about You're like, I'm not
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: that worried about AI will end humanity, but I'm actually
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: worried that it will replace us because that's what they
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: want to do. That is the genuine, that's the bull case.
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: And we spend so much time here talking about the
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: kill humanity, and that's fine. We talked to Nate, and
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: he actually gave a very good analogy. If you're a
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: normal chess player, he's like, I'm not going to tell
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: you how Magnus Carlsen is going to beat you, but
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: I can tell you that he's going to beat you.
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: I can't tell you exactly which piece he's going to
• 18:13
  Speaker 2: use in order to put you in checkmate. Whereas we
• 18:16
  Speaker 2: don't spend enough time nearly talking about the transhumanist freak future.
• 18:19
  Speaker 2: Like Dario actually is a transhumanist freak. Most of the
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: people who work at these companies, including, yeah, Altman, a
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: literal con man who started OpenAI as a nonprofit and
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: turned it into one of the most profitable companies in
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: the history of mankind with a, what is it, a
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: total addressable market that him and Sam are going around
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: saying the entire US economy, right? And so put it
• 18:38
  Speaker 2: together and what you find are these deeply untrustworthy systems.
• 18:43
  Speaker 2: and I have been thinking about this I'm curious for
• 18:45
  Speaker 2: your reaction is in the Manhattan Project view it would
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: be as if under Manhattan that we just went out
• 18:52
  Speaker 2: and funded instead of directing a bunch of labs. And
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: we're like, all of you guys sprint to the bomb.
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: You know, go for it. There's no General Groves.
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: And no regulation.
• 19:03
  Speaker 2: No, there's no regulation.
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: We're not even going to come.
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: And look at the labs. There's no FBI. There's no
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: security check. There's no direction. There's no public funding. It's
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: literally like, you guys sprint for the bomb. Let us
• 19:13
  Speaker 2: know how you're getting there. And, you know, it's actually...
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: It's fascinating and important in the story to have the
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: government in charge, very often telling these scientists, be like, dude,
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: shut up, all right? He's like, this is what we're
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: going to do. We don't care what you're saying here,
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: but in both directions, both people who wanted to sprint
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: towards it and people who didn't. And it feels like
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: that is what's the most frustrating dynamic about this is
• 19:35
  Speaker 2: the lack of democratic control. Yeah. Ultimately. So, yeah. Yeah.
• 19:38
  Speaker 5: No, I mean.
• 19:39
  Speaker 8: It's wild that these people are building what are now
• 19:42
  Speaker 8: super weapons, right? Once Mythos was able to find vulnerabilities
• 19:46
  Speaker 8: in every piece of software, basically, it checked, including hardened,
• 19:50
  Speaker 8: classified servers of the NSA. It's like, wait, this private
• 19:54
  Speaker 8: company that is basically not regulated at all is now
• 19:58
  Speaker 8: able to find these vulnerabilities and get into these systems everywhere.
• 20:03
  Speaker 8: And we're just going to let them keep building them
• 20:05
  Speaker 8: and getting better and better. And then the systems themselves
• 20:08
  Speaker 8: are our security threat. And yeah, if the Manhattan Project
• 20:11
  Speaker 8: had been privatized and unregulated, that'd be insane. And that's
• 20:15
  Speaker 8: basically the situation we're in. But the stakes are actually
• 20:19
  Speaker 8: higher if you buy the full bull case for the technology,
• 20:23
  Speaker 8: which is that it could fully replicate human labor across
• 20:27
  Speaker 8: the board and be scaled.
• 20:28
  Speaker 4: Up to arbitrary numbers, which is the stated plan.
• 20:32
  Speaker 8: And so this idea that it was always going to
• 20:35
  Speaker 8: be the government who's going to step in and take
• 20:38
  Speaker 8: control of this technology is And that is pretty concerning.
• 20:42
  Speaker 4: In general, I think no one should have this tech.
• 20:45
  Speaker 8: And we should be building it, if at all, under
• 20:47
  Speaker 8: incredibly different circumstances, under a truly global democratic control, with
• 20:53
  Speaker 8: a global effort to build it safely, but also with buy-in,
• 20:58
  Speaker 8: ensuring that people actually want it. But this government in
• 21:02
  Speaker 8: particular is very concerning. They've demonstrated a strong interest in
• 21:05
  Speaker 8: using it for lethal autonomous weapons, for mass surveillance. And
• 21:09
  Speaker 8: there's no such thing as a safe super weapon. It
• 21:14
  Speaker 8: depends on what it's being pointed at and who's using
• 21:16
  Speaker 8: it for what.
• 21:17
  Speaker 4: It's not a property of the system.
• 21:19
  Speaker 8: It's a property of the entire ecosystem and the world
• 21:22
  Speaker 8: that it's coming into.
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Let's go ahead and put a six up on the screen.
• 21:27
  Speaker 1: This is the Bernie Greg Kazar proposal. You've got Bernie
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: and Steve Bannon attending the same event today to raise
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: awareness and call for regulation. What do you make of
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: some of the political coalitions here? Because it is very interesting.
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: I can tell you in terms of where I'm finding
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: agreement online, I'm finding some surprising places. There are some
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: people that now I vociferously disagree with that I would
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: have been surprised previously. So there is a lot of,
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: I think, political coalition scrambling that is happening here. But
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: I also think there's a bit of a disconnect between
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: the elite discourse around the concerns and the general public
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: sense of just.
• 22:09
  Speaker 3: we don't understand this. We don't want it.
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: We didn't ask for it. We want to slow down.
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: We don't want these data centers in our towns. Like
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: there feels to be a large normie backlash that almost
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: precedes the elite discourse now.
• 22:22
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 22:22
  Speaker 8: I think it's kind of populist versus elite, right? You've
• 22:26
  Speaker 8: got the populist left and the populist right opposing AI,
• 22:31
  Speaker 8: supporting regulations, opposing the preemption of state level regulations, which
• 22:35
  Speaker 8: Congress was pushing. under the Republican leadership. And then the
• 22:41
  Speaker 8: Republican leadership is just taking orders from the industry. And
• 22:45
  Speaker 8: the AI industry is the wealthiest industry of all time.
• 22:48
  Speaker 8: And so it's very unpopular to try and nullify all
• 22:52
  Speaker 8: state-level AI regulations, but the Republicans did try to do this.
• 22:56
  Speaker 8: And then Trump is taking his cues from that at
• 23:00
  Speaker 8: political cost to himself and to his party. And I
• 23:04
  Speaker 8: think this is just one of those issues where It
• 23:07
  Speaker 8: really is almost everybody against this tiny set of people
• 23:11
  Speaker 8: who are trying to build this technology and the people
• 23:14
  Speaker 8: in the tech right who want to let it rip.
• 23:17
  Speaker 8: And if you look at polling for this, it's the
• 23:19
  Speaker 8: least popular position you could have.
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: It's just no regulation for this technology. I mean, it
• 23:26
  Speaker 4: is weird.
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: Because it's an objectively insane position.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 23:29
  Speaker 1: And I do want you to break down a little
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: bit of the antitrust concern.
• 23:33
  Speaker 3: Because Dario put.
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: This line in his essay about, like, we may need
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: an exemption in order to coordinate a slowdown. There are
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: a lot of people that came out who know a
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: lot more about this than I do. They were like,
• 23:43
  Speaker 1: you actually don't need an exemption. There's a safety carve out.
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: You could do this already. But people I listen to
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: David Sachs interview this morning sort of seized on that
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: to say, oh, they just want to form a cartel.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: And that's what this is really all about. But there
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: are a lot of other regulations that I think, again,
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: would be common sense to people. You know, when you
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: think of a bio lab, we have all kinds of
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: inspections and monitoring. When you think of even, you know,
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: large banks. You have embedded regulators who are deeply enmeshed.
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: Not that they always get it right, but at least
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: there's some oversight when you're testing new pharmaceutical products to
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: come out. There's an oversight and there's a testing regime. Again,
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: there can be problems with that, but it's certainly better
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: than not having anything at all. And with these, what
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: they insist on calling labs, there is none of that whatsoever.
• 24:31
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 24:31
  Speaker 8: I mean, I've seen experts on both sides saying it
• 24:33
  Speaker 8: would be antitrust violation to... coordinate in this way because
• 24:37
  Speaker 8: you're slowing down progress of this technology towards an undesirable end.
• 24:42
  Speaker 8: But that is kind of classic cartel behavior. On the
• 24:47
  Speaker 8: other side, it's like they could afford the fines. The
• 24:50
  Speaker 8: biggest fines ever for this are in the single digits,
• 24:52
  Speaker 8: billions of dollars. These companies are taking hundreds of billions
• 24:55
  Speaker 8: in investment. And so if they really cared, if they
• 24:57
  Speaker 8: thought it was existentially important, they could run that risk
• 25:01
  Speaker 8: And it's an excuse. It's a convenient excuse for the
• 25:03
  Speaker 8: industry to avoid doing the right thing and slowing down here.
• 25:08
  Speaker 8: It's been interesting to see how people line up on
• 25:12
  Speaker 8: this because a lot of people on the left are
• 25:13
  Speaker 8: very skeptical of this Bernie-Kassar proposal to pause frontier development
• 25:18
  Speaker 8: and to ban superintelligence. And they call it regulatory capture.
• 25:21
  Speaker 8: And it's like, you're on the same side as David Sachs.
• 25:23
  Speaker 4: Elon Musk. And this is the thing.
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: How is that regulatory capture? Because none of these guys
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: want to stop. You know, even like Dario Zesi is
• 25:31
  Speaker 1: not calling to stop. He's calling slow the pace and
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: we'll bring in our own internal auditors. And theoretically, we'd
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: like some regulation. But this is what we're going to
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: do right now.
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: There's no one.
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: Who has money at stake in the industry that is
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: saying just shut it all down, which is what Bernie's
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: proposal would do.
• 25:48
  Speaker 8: The argument I've seen is that it would be unfalsifiable.
• 25:51
  Speaker 8: The definition of superintelligence was unfalsifiable, and so it was
• 25:54
  Speaker 8: like this get out of all regulation free card.
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: What? I don't understand.
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: Can you explain that argument?
• 26:00
  Speaker 6: I don't understand.
• 26:00
  Speaker 8: Because the definition is squishy and you can't really test it,
• 26:03
  Speaker 8: then you can't prescribe what superintelligence is. And so- I
• 26:11
  Speaker 8: think this is pretty absurd because, one, it's a messaging bill.
• 26:14
  Speaker 8: This particular bill is not going to pass as it is.
• 26:18
  Speaker 8: If it actually got close to passing, there would be
• 26:19
  Speaker 8: a lot of effort put into defining what the thing
• 26:22
  Speaker 8: is that you're criminalizing. And from a messaging perspective, it's
• 26:27
  Speaker 8: pretty clear what they're trying to do. They're trying to
• 26:29
  Speaker 8: criminalize the stated business goal of these companies. And the
• 26:33
  Speaker 8: idea that that would be good for them is just
• 26:35
  Speaker 8: so topsy-turvy.
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: And this is something I think we should... put this
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: bill aside, is what they're talking about is cartel-style behavior,
• 26:45
  Speaker 2: engaging on pacing, but ultimately trying to get to the goal.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: I think what the three of us are talking about
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: is laying a floor for the whole industry. It doesn't
• 26:53
  Speaker 2: matter whether it's Dario, Meta, Microsoft, any of these other people.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: We're saying, this is the groundwork. You got to build
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: within these parameters. That's normal. That's like a normal setting,
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: the kind of the parameters in which a market is
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: allowed to operate. And then from there, go for it, do,
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: you know, whatever you want. It's actually much more, I
• 27:13
  Speaker 2: wouldn't say libertarian, but like a small business type, if anything,
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: startup friendly, it's like, these are the parameters that which
• 27:17
  Speaker 2: we're all allowed to engage in. Go ahead. and engage,
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: whereas what they're proposing actually does seem to be much
• 27:22
  Speaker 2: more of like cartel-style behavior. So it is interesting from
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: a regulatory perspective, but I want to come back to something,
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: what you said about global governance. And this is where,
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know, I mean, you talked here about our
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: current government, sure, I agree, you know, a lot of abuse,
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: et cetera, it still seems to be somewhat more preferable
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: to have our not just current government, government have actual
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: say over what it is, because ultimately that's somewhat answerable
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: to democratic control. I mean, anthropic and open air are
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: not even public. I can't even buy a share and
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: vote in their election. I can at least vote in
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: my election coming up, specifically on like Bernie Bill or whoever,
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: like whoever they want to regulate. So talk through that
• 28:01
  Speaker 2: a little bit more about, because you're warning about our
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: current government. Sure, you're not wrong. You talked about mass surveillance.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, look, I'm not saying the Chinese and all
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: that aren't, They do a lot of things with AI.
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: I think they have a different model, but to deny
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: that they're not also going to use and are using
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: this for mass surveillance is kind of ridiculous. So to
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: what extent, when you're talking about global democratic control, is
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: that even feasible, possible in a world where, I mean,
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: one point something billion people don't live under a democracy?
• 28:28
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 28:29
  Speaker 4: I mean, I think that's the ideal. We're so far
• 28:31
  Speaker 4: from that existing.
• 28:32
  Speaker 8: And I just think this technology should not be built
• 28:35
  Speaker 8: under anything like the current circumstances. But- If it is built,
• 28:40
  Speaker 8: there are these proposals to have the companies be owned
• 28:43
  Speaker 8: by the government and then sharing the proceeds with Americans.
• 28:46
  Speaker 8: And it's like, most people are not Americans, right? And
• 28:50
  Speaker 8: if they're put out of work by American AI, then
• 28:52
  Speaker 8: American citizens are getting dividends from that. But then the 96%
• 28:58
  Speaker 8: of the world that are not American citizens are getting
• 29:01
  Speaker 8: put out of work, getting no access to new tax
• 29:03
  Speaker 8: revenue from the technology, and no recourse, really, that seems
• 29:08
  Speaker 8: pretty concerning.
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: That's going to create a very unstable world.
• 29:11
  Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah. And so I.
• 29:14
  Speaker 8: Think it's more just like this ideal we can shoot for,
• 29:16
  Speaker 8: where these AI models are built from the inheritance of humanity,
• 29:23
  Speaker 8: the intellectual and creative inheritance from every human that's ever
• 29:26
  Speaker 8: written anything down or created anything. and they're being enclosed
• 29:30
  Speaker 8: and privatized by these companies. And I think even the
• 29:34
  Speaker 8: boldest answers here are to bring those under public control
• 29:38
  Speaker 8: and ownership of just one country, which happened to be
• 29:40
  Speaker 8: at the forefront of building these systems. And that's still
• 29:44
  Speaker 8: just so far from what we should want aspirationally. And
• 29:49
  Speaker 8: my long-term vision for this is probably a multi-decade project
• 29:54
  Speaker 8: to figure out how to get buy-in for this technology
• 29:57
  Speaker 8: and how to build it safely and make sure that
• 30:00
  Speaker 8: it benefits truly everybody.
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: CARRIE NORDLUND- Garrison, my last question for you is, are
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: you concerned? Because your book is primarily focused on what
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: you call the obsoleting project, which is the goal of
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: replacing all humans, starting with probably white-collar workers, with this technology.
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: And that's where you focused a lot of your advocacy.
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: Are you concerned that this moment where a lot of
• 30:24
  Speaker 1: the discussion is about what admittedly feels like these sort
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: of bizarre sci-fi scenarios of existential risk, that that is
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: detracting from some of the more immediate and concrete concerns that, frankly,
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: I think will probably land in a more absorbable way
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: with the majority of the public?
• 30:41
  Speaker 8: Yeah, it's interesting because I was very thoughtful about what
• 30:45
  Speaker 8: arguments I presented in which order. And I take seriously
• 30:48
  Speaker 8: these concerns about extinction, not on the same timelines that
• 30:52
  Speaker 8: Jacob is talking about. But I think there's been this
• 30:57
  Speaker 8: big mistake made by the classic AI safety community, like
• 31:00
  Speaker 8: the so-called doomers, where they focus on like extinction superintelligence.
• 31:05
  Speaker 4: And that's like the last stop on the train.
• 31:07
  Speaker 8: And then if you don't believe the train is going
• 31:09
  Speaker 8: in that direction, then you're like not so worried about
• 31:12
  Speaker 8: the train. And to me, I'm like, plenty of people
• 31:14
  Speaker 8: want to stop the train at, labor replacement, at surveillance,
• 31:19
  Speaker 8: at environmental concerns, at power and wealth concentration. And all
• 31:22
  Speaker 8: of those things are like easier cases to make and
• 31:25
  Speaker 8: they're still true. And so I think we should be
• 31:28
  Speaker 8: focusing on what is before that step, which is like AGI,
• 31:34
  Speaker 8: universal labor replacing machines. People don't want that. And this
• 31:38
  Speaker 8: question of like, could every single human be killed by
• 31:40
  Speaker 8: the end of the decade? It's just like distracting us
• 31:43
  Speaker 8: from this question of like, do we want these machines
• 31:47
  Speaker 8: to be built in our lifetimes under the conditions that.
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: They're currently being built?
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: So what Jacob said in response to this question, when
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: I was listening to an interview with him is that it.
• 31:57
  Speaker 3: Is, entirely valid. And he shares all of those concerns.
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: However, with the labor replacement, as bad as that will be,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: it's not like a one and done.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Sure.
• 32:07
  Speaker 3: It happens and game over.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: Whereas the scenarios he's concerned about, the truly existential, you know,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: humanity is over risk. It is that sort of if
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: you get it wrong, you don't get a do over.
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: And so that's why he's particularly focused.
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: On that piece.
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: And when we asked Nate about it yesterday, because I
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: asked him a very similar question, he said, well, I
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: don't think that you you know, it has to be
• 32:30
  Speaker 1: one or the other. I think we could be concerned
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: about cybersecurity. I think we could be concerned about labor replacement.
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: I think we could be concerned about deep fakes and
• 32:37
  Speaker 1: societal destabilization, but also be concerned about these existential risks.
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: So how would how would you respond to those?
• 32:43
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I agree with both of those things.
• 32:44
  Speaker 8: And extinction is categorically the most worrying thing because we
• 32:48
  Speaker 8: get no more.
• 32:49
  Speaker 4: Shots at doing anything. That's it, yes.
• 32:50
  Speaker 7: Yes.
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: But it's funny.
• 32:52
  Speaker 8: Gary Tan, the head of Y Combinator, this venture capital fund,
• 32:56
  Speaker 8: was like, hey, we should stop talking.
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: We should.
• 32:59
  Speaker 8: no longer talk about existential risk, we should focus on like,
• 33:02
  Speaker 8: near term immediate harms, things like rogue agent swarms that
• 33:05
  Speaker 8: are hacking into things autonomously, which is the type of
• 33:08
  Speaker 8: thing that sounded like sci fi, you know, six months ago,
• 33:10
  Speaker 8: and then it happened.
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: True.
• 33:12
  Speaker 8: And so yeah, I don't think we need to be
• 33:15
  Speaker 8: picking necessarily. But I just worry that if people don't
• 33:18
  Speaker 8: ride the train all the way, they think there's no problem.
• 33:22
  Speaker 8: And we're just kind of Confusing ourselves a bit.
• 33:25
  Speaker 2: No, I totally agree with you. And I actually think
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: you do need to be picky because I think what's
• 33:29
  Speaker 2: kind of frustrating, again, about this whole situation is this, like,
• 33:32
  Speaker 2: they call it P-Doom, probability of extinction more than 10%.
• 33:36
  Speaker 2: That's a good headline. I totally get it. But like
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: you said, like, you know, the median case for this
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: all works out. is genuine replacement of the vast majority
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: of white collar work. I'm like, that would.
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: Be- On the road to building robots.
• 33:51
  Speaker 2: Right, on the road to building humanoid robots. And okay,
• 33:54
  Speaker 2: let's say I'm even fine with technological progress, but I'm
• 33:57
  Speaker 2: talking about, I'm looking at a world where Dario and
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: Sam and Elon are literally trillionaires who have more power
• 34:04
  Speaker 2: and wealth than any individual in all of human history.
• 34:08
  Speaker 2: And technology with zero democratic control that is all being
• 34:11
  Speaker 2: ushered in on the back of our workforce. I'm like,
• 34:14
  Speaker 2: I don't know about extinction. I know what that looks
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: like because it has many times at least resembled that
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: in the past. That's a disaster. That is a full-fledged
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: industrial-style revolution change. in life, in my opinion, not for
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: the better. And so I think that's where the discussion
• 34:30
  Speaker 2: largely should go.
• 34:30
  Speaker 8: The dream of capitalists for so long has been turning
• 34:34
  Speaker 8: capital into labor without having to pay the workers, without
• 34:37
  Speaker 8: having workers that can go on strike or use the bathroom.
• 34:40
  Speaker 8: And this technology the industry is trying to build is
• 34:44
  Speaker 8: close to delivering on that promise. And it's really strange
• 34:47
  Speaker 8: to me that the left has not taken that prospect
• 34:50
  Speaker 8: seriously because it's the most obvious thing in the world
• 34:53
  Speaker 8: to organize against. And it's also now politically quite popular
• 34:56
  Speaker 8: to do so. And so I think there's a generational
• 35:00
  Speaker 8: opportunity to realign our politics and to resist this race
• 35:06
  Speaker 8: to replace us, which if we don't get it right,
• 35:09
  Speaker 8: like we're in a really bad, we're already in a
• 35:11
  Speaker 8: really bad situation. But the inequality we're seeing, the wealth
• 35:14
  Speaker 8: and power concentration, the just dystopia that's being built in
• 35:20
  Speaker 8: real time.
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: Will get so much worse if the industry is allowed
• 35:23
  Speaker 4: to keep doing what they're doing.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: I'm with you.
• 35:25
  Speaker 3: The book is Obsolete.
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: It's going to be released on September 29th, available for
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: pre-order now.
• 35:30
  Speaker 3: Garrison, great to see you.
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: Great to see you, man. Yeah. Turning now to the
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: situation with Iran. Oil markets reaching genuine crisis levels. Trump,
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: of course, trying to do what he always does. Let's
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: put it up here on the screen. He says, the
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: failing nation of Iran wants to make a deal quickly, badly.
• 35:48
  Speaker 2: I will determine whether or not the USA will choose
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: to engage The concept of which we are open to,
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: thank you for your attention to this matter, came at
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: the exact moment that Brent crude prices surged to some
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: $ 109 per barrel, but it was accompanied with a series
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: of other truths. So let's put these in quick succession, guys.
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Let's go to B2. At the very same time, he says,
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: I've just received a report. The United States is producing
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: more exquisite and elite weapons than at any time in
• 36:14
  Speaker 2: our history. They're being delivered on a daily basis to
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: our forces in the Middle East and beyond our defense
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: company factories. are moving 24-7 while at the same time
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: building four to five brand new plants each. A primary
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: focus has been Patriot's THAAD systems, Tomahawks, and other missile
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: systems of which we have large numbers in stock. Yeah,
• 36:34
  Speaker 2: literally none of that is true. The timeline is probably
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: going to take five to ten years to replace what's
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: been already used even at current levels. And then following
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: it up with the next one, I hope everyone realizes
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: price increases throughout America were caused by Biden, not by Trump.
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: Even oil was higher under Biden than it is right now. Actually,
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: it was under Ukraine. And we prevented Iran from having
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: a nuclear weapon with the temporary exception of oil. Prices
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: are coming down sharply. Oil will drop like a rock
• 37:02
  Speaker 2: as soon as the military conflict with Iran is over.
• 37:04
  Speaker 2: And that will not be long. Thank you for your attention.
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: to this matter. Uh, and so you may be wondering
• 37:09
  Speaker 2: then about these prices. So, uh, as of this morning,
• 37:12
  Speaker 2: the national average price of gasoline is $ 4 and 32 cents. Uh,
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: and the national average price of diesel is six 27
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: a gallon. Uh, and it is on its way to seven.
• 37:25
  Speaker 2: As we said, there is one, and we covered that yesterday.
• 37:27
  Speaker 2: My favorite story, uh, gas station, uh, in San Diego,
• 37:31
  Speaker 2: where it literally can't get worse because they don't know
• 37:34
  Speaker 2: how to move the sign from $ 9. 99 to $ 10 a gallon.
• 37:36
  Speaker 2: They're going to figure.
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: Out how to put some cardboard over that.
• 37:40
  Speaker 2: Like I said, they'll figure that fucker out tomorrow. But
• 37:44
  Speaker 2: in the meantime, it literally cannot. get any worse for them.
• 37:47
  Speaker 2: And yep, doesn't look like there has been any movement whatsoever.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: In the Brent price, still around 105, 108, you have
• 37:56
  Speaker 2: series of problems in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Qatar warning
• 38:00
  Speaker 2: this morning, it is a full-fledged disaster, the closure of
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: what's happening. In addition, just to show you where shipping prices,
• 38:08
  Speaker 2: I was telling you about before the show, the price
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: per day of hiring the ships now to transport oil
• 38:15
  Speaker 2: has become, has surged to a million dollars a day.
• 38:19
  Speaker 2: And it used to be 100,000 in terms of, what
• 38:24
  Speaker 2: is it, 10 times the price of what it is
• 38:27
  Speaker 2: just to operate and get oil. I think from the
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: United States all the way to Asia, Japan now largest
• 38:34
  Speaker 2: customer is actually the United States in terms of what,
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: just imagine the travel time of getting some of that
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: stuff over there. So huge global race for the existing
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: oil stocks. A lot of oil executives being like, this
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: is it. This is the big one. To be fair,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: they've said that before.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, very true.
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: So we're in a bit of a wait and see
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: with all of that. But I don't think there's any
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: doubt the crash out yesterday from Trump on AI and
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: on Iran has everything to do with the markets. Our
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: entire economy is bet on the AI and data center
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: build out. So when that started to appear a little shaky,
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: these companies for the economic bubble to continue, for the
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: good times to continue to flow, they have to keep
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: building because if you slow down, then you don't need
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: to build out all of these data centers. You know,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: a lot of the cost of OpenAI, Anthropic, and the
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: other frontier labs, a lot of those costs are all
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: about training the models. So he does not want them
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: to slow down. So he made that very clear yesterday.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: And then if you look at oil prices going up,
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: you look at treasury bond yields hitting on 10 year,
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: hitting 5%. These were a lot of dire signals. And
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: then you also had the stock market taking a significant dip.
• 39:46
  Speaker 1: So that is the reason why Trump was freaking out
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: posting all of these things and hoping to jawbone the market.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: It worked a little bit. The market recovered some. Oil
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: is not quite at the highs that it was at yesterday.
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: But there is a deep concern that this could be
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: the moment when the whole thing crumbles apart. As you're saying, Sagar,
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: we've heard those warnings before, so we will see. But
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: if you put B5 up on the screen- This is
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: what oil executives are telling the Wall Street Journal. Oil
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: executives say the great fuel crisis is here. Trump officials
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: say the oil market disruption is temporary. But Chevron's Mike
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: Wirth and others warn global supplies are running low with
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: no respite in sight. The things that they point to
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: here will be very familiar to watchers of this show.
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: China reentering the market. The damage to the Saudi east-west pipeline,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: the Houthis taking the Red Sea coastline, obviously Iran escalating
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: and the continued blockade and issues in the Strait of Hormuz,
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: the Ukraine and Russia war and Ukraine striking Russian refining capabilities.
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: There was also a refinery here in the U.S. that
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: is damaged and is not functioning. And any one of
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: these things, and by the way, what I was looking
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: at experts were saying is this is predictable because they're
• 40:59
  Speaker 1: all being run at full tilt. And there's no downtime
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: in order to perform routine maintenance. So at some point,
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: things will start to break down. And we're starting to
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: get to that point. In addition, not only the U.S.,
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: but many other countries around the world have run down
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: their strategic petroleum reserves. So Trump's big play is let's
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: see if we can get this Venezuelan oil online as
• 41:21
  Speaker 1: soon as possible. But based, you know, no expert here,
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: but based on what the experts are saying, that is
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: going to take years. That is not a quick fix to,
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: you know, spin up more Venezuelan oil production. That is
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: going to be a long time frame. And they don't
• 41:34
  Speaker 1: seem to have a lot of more rabbits in the
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: hat that they can pull out here. But I guess, again,
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: you never know.
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and combining a couple of different things, actually, some
• 41:44
  Speaker 2: of which are breaking this morning. This didn't end up
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: in the show, but Trump finally woke up to the
• 41:48
  Speaker 2: fact that one of the main reasons diesel is so
• 41:51
  Speaker 2: high is because of Ukraine striking all of these refineries
• 41:55
  Speaker 2: in Russia. So Trump came out yesterday and was like,
• 41:57
  Speaker 2: Ukraine has agreed, and so has Russia, to no longer
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: strike each other's energy facilities. Everyone was like, oh, great.
• 42:03
  Speaker 2: Literally woke up this morning, Ukraine just struck a Russian
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: oil facility.
• 42:07
  Speaker 5: Oh, really?
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: Literally last night. Or last night, our time. So yeah,
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: you know, it's like, what? Of course they're not going
• 42:12
  Speaker 2: to stop because it makes logical sense from their perspective.
• 42:16
  Speaker 2: They're hurting the Russian economy. Ukraine doesn't care if we're
• 42:19
  Speaker 2: paying more for gasoline. That's been their MO, you know,
• 42:22
  Speaker 2: from the very beginning. So on the Russian side and
• 42:25
  Speaker 2: on the, ironically, Ukraine, even though they're anti-Iran, really working
• 42:28
  Speaker 2: on their behalf, you know, in some ways by tightening
• 42:31
  Speaker 2: the global market for refined products. Other thing that's coming
• 42:35
  Speaker 2: out in the China situation is is it's very obvious.
• 42:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, it makes sense. They were able to sustain
• 42:42
  Speaker 2: off their own stockpiles for six months. That's a long time.
• 42:46
  Speaker 2: That's honestly admirable to be able to cut your imports
• 42:48
  Speaker 2: to the levels that they were and still be able
• 42:51
  Speaker 2: to run your economy. But you still need oil. And so, yep,
• 42:53
  Speaker 2: you're starting to tick up in terms of, and that's
• 42:55
  Speaker 2: exactly what you see in the price, all of it
• 42:58
  Speaker 2: now reflecting the general shortage. You will also begin to
• 43:01
  Speaker 2: see a lot of propaganda from the West, specifically about
• 43:06
  Speaker 2: Strait of Hormuz. So it does appear that there has
• 43:08
  Speaker 2: been a general uptick now, up to almost 10 million
• 43:11
  Speaker 2: barrels per day, according to tanker trackers. There's a very
• 43:14
  Speaker 2: good track record on this subject through the Strait of Hormuz.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: A lot of these ship-to-ship transfers running the blockade convoy
• 43:20
  Speaker 2: system that Sal had pointed out. However, what that doesn't
• 43:24
  Speaker 2: take into account is the current closure for Saudi Arabia
• 43:27
  Speaker 2: and of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. And so if you
• 43:29
  Speaker 2: look at the totality of the amount of oil, Iran,
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: by controlling Bab al-Mandeb, even if they're losing a little
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: bit of control in the Strait of Hormuz, those things
• 43:38
  Speaker 2: work in conjunction and push the price of oil continue
• 43:41
  Speaker 2: to go higher. And so I think what you're continuing
• 43:43
  Speaker 2: to see too is that there is also something tracked
• 43:47
  Speaker 2: very extensively by Rory, which is about dated Brent, which
• 43:52
  Speaker 2: means the physical spot price, like actual for the oil
• 43:56
  Speaker 2: that it is right now. And according to him, that
• 43:59
  Speaker 2: closed yesterday at $ 130 a barrel. So the Brent crude futures,
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: but the future price, this is $ 130 a barrel for
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: the actual physical price of the barrel today. And he
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: says that it's higher than all but a few days
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: in 2008, 2022, and one or two days in April
• 44:16
  Speaker 2: of 2026. So already historic levels. Why does that matter?
• 44:20
  Speaker 2: Because we're not really seeing a ton of kinetic action.
• 44:23
  Speaker 2: A few ships are getting struck, you know, a few
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: things and all of that. are happening. But by and large,
• 44:28
  Speaker 2: like we're watching ships, actually a ship, by the way,
• 44:31
  Speaker 2: hit a mine in the Hormuz yesterday. So thank you,
• 44:33
  Speaker 2: President Trump, you know, for demining the entire strait.
• 44:36
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what happened with that?
• 44:38
  Speaker 2: Remember, you can look at all of this and just
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: see we're slow rolling. We're just crawling forward. And, you know,
• 44:43
  Speaker 2: our media doesn't barely covers Iran now. They just cover the,
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: they just cover the oil. And I totally understand that.
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: But Still the situation with Bab al-Mandahoudi's seizure of the Strait,
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: this is all part of like a pincer movement that
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: the Iranians are trying to use to choke hold the
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: global oil market. And all we're looking at now is
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: just one event, like another reigniting of fighting, and that
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: would send things even higher. We could go to 115,
• 45:10
  Speaker 2: 120 in terms of the future, which would put the
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: physical price at around 150, 160.
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: There are some indications that the Houthi offensive was directly
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: coordinated with Iran. We don't know that to be the case,
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: but there are some indications that that may be the case.
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: It does make some sense. for why the timing of
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: that offensive was right now. We also learned that it
• 45:30
  Speaker 1: was not the Houthis who hit the east-west pipeline.
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: It was the.
• 45:33
  Speaker 1: Iraqi militias aligned with Iran. So when you look at
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: all of those pieces together, it's very possible that Iran
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: is behind those actions, not to say the Houthis don't
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: have their own domestic priorities in their ongoing war, but
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: it could be the case that these should be seen
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: as moves by Iran to continue to tighten the noose.
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: and should be anticipated that there may be more actions
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: that they take between now and the midterm elections as
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: they try to make things as difficult as possible for
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: the U.S., for the global economy, and for Trump and
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: for his political prospects in particular. Last piece here, B6,
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: we can put up on the screen. This will surprise
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: literally no one, but Trump of course, was claiming Iran.
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: They're calling us.
• 46:18
  Speaker 1: They're begging to negotiate as part of his jawboning of
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: the market. Iran comes back and says, we have made
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: no request to negotiate with the United States.
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: And so you can take that for what you will.
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: Yes, exactly. And also, the bond market continues to go
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: in a very bad direction. Let's put B4 up on
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: the screen. This was from yesterday. The 10-year Treasury yield
• 46:40
  Speaker 2: topped 5%, they say, as oil surges diesel hits the
• 46:44
  Speaker 2: all time high, increasing the borrowing costs. And but don't forget,
• 46:49
  Speaker 2: tomorrow is actually the Federal Reserve meeting where they will
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: be what current expectations will be hiking interest rates for
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: the first time since 2023, the exact opposite of what
• 47:01
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump had wanted. And so between the bond rates
• 47:05
  Speaker 2: and the increase in the interest rate, the price of
• 47:07
  Speaker 2: borrowing going up, they're trying to do some demand destruction.
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: None of this is looking good for the American consumer.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: I can't even imagine what the mortgage interest rates are
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: going to be in a few weeks. It could be 7%, honestly,
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: maybe even higher, especially with their current home prices. Where
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: they are, you might as well just forget about it
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: in terms of trying to buy a home in today's market.
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: You put all these things together, especially the bond situation
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: where Scott Besson, it is interesting. There's discussion about this
• 47:39
  Speaker 2: in the financial press, but These two things are working
• 47:43
  Speaker 2: in tandem, the oil market and the 10-year yield, which
• 47:46
  Speaker 2: it is now the highest level since 2007. We really
• 47:49
  Speaker 2: are in almost 20 years in terms of a historic
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: move in that direction. Overall, it's putting pressure on the
• 47:58
  Speaker 2: stock market futures with the oil price. inflation it all
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: comes together and just generally a bad situation and also
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: just very obviously not a vote of confidence in the
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: united states government which is you know not really what you.
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Want yeah any one of these things would be a
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: flash flashing red light yeah and we've got all red
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: lights flashing yes makes sense.
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: Let's get to the next part here we had said
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: many times here on the show where is the pilot
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: the guy who got shot down and who was rescued
• 48:25
  Speaker 2: he did emerge on television on 60 Minutes and gave
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: an extensive interview, very much reminiscent, in my opinion, of
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: the War on Terror, where they roll it out. It's
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: like a big, splashy, pre-released interview of the guy who's involved,
• 48:44
  Speaker 2: Pete Hegseth, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
• 48:46
  Speaker 2: And we'll get to some of the orchestration of all
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: of that. But we did, of course, since we've said
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: so many times, where is he? Well, here he is.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: Here he is in his own words, in terms of
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: his survival and how he was rescued. Let's take a listen.
• 48:58
  Speaker 6: So how fast do you think you were going.
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: When you hit the ground?
• 49:02
  Speaker 10: Professionals, based on my description and the injuries that I had,
• 49:06
  Speaker 10: the professionals think I hit the ground going somewhere between 70.
• 49:09
  Speaker 4: And 100 miles an hour.
• 49:11
  Speaker 2: How did you survive that?
• 49:13
  Speaker 10: A modern day miracle. I believe that it's a testament
• 49:18
  Speaker 10: to God's provision in my life. to bring me through
• 49:21
  Speaker 10: that moment in a way that didn't prevent injuries, but
• 49:26
  Speaker 10: prevented any catastrophic injuries that would have affected my ability
• 49:31
  Speaker 10: to survive.
• 49:31
  Speaker 6: Bravo told us the safest place for him to go
• 49:34
  Speaker 6: was up. So he quickly made the decision. Despite his
• 49:38
  Speaker 6: broken bones, to hike and climb up a 7,000-foot ridgeline.
• 49:44
  Speaker 2: So you can see there, that's what his story is,
• 49:47
  Speaker 2: is that he was hitting the ground at, what, 70
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: to 100 miles per hour. He had broken bones, scaled
• 49:52
  Speaker 2: a 7,000-foot bluff, and then was rescued while there was
• 49:58
  Speaker 2: an extensive search and rescue operation that was going on there.
• 50:02
  Speaker 2: They did release some video and others. You can go
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: and watch some of this for yourself. I do think
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: it is worth noting, I think, you know, within this,
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: is that, look, I know there's a lot of skepticism
• 50:13
  Speaker 2: about the story, and I get it. You know, to me,
• 50:15
  Speaker 2: you know, hitting the ground at 100 miles an hour,
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: that seems crazy. But I guess crazier things have happened
• 50:20
  Speaker 2: in terms of that. I do somewhat believe, at the
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: very least, I believe this, that he went down in
• 50:28
  Speaker 2: that plane and– Because of that, that's what initially led
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: to the ceasefire. And since that time, there have not
• 50:35
  Speaker 2: been aircraft over Iran. So that's why everyone who's like, oh,
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: this never happened, it was all staged. I'm like, well,
• 50:42
  Speaker 2: there's one thing where you should take at least some
• 50:45
  Speaker 2: of it seriously, is that since that day, we have
• 50:48
  Speaker 2: relied on standoff munitions, Tomahawk missiles, and all of these
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: other munitions to strike Iran, specifically in the Strait of
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: Hormuz and others, or use these Black Hawk helicopters in
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: the dead of night But we have not done large-scale
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: bombing runs over the country, largely out of fear of
• 51:06
  Speaker 2: being shot down again. And so that's the one part where, again,
• 51:09
  Speaker 2: I understand with the story and any of these military stories,
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: considering the track record of so many that have been
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: lot and raid and all these other things that they've
• 51:17
  Speaker 2: put out there, half of which has turned out to
• 51:19
  Speaker 2: be total bullshit.
• 51:21
  Speaker 3: I totally get it.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: Right, yeah.
• 51:25
  Speaker 5: I get it.
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: I get where you're all coming from. Every single one
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: of these stories, the details are 10 times. Lone Survivor,
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: you can go and look into that one if you
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: want to. Bin Laden, literally, look, some of it's true,
• 51:37
  Speaker 2: a lot of it's not. So every one of the
• 51:40
  Speaker 2: big missions that turns into a movie, or even Zero
• 51:43
  Speaker 2: Dark Thirty, half of it's literally just fiction. So my
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: point just remains that I get it where all the
• 51:50
  Speaker 2: skepticism comes from. And I think on the exact details,
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: 10 years from now, we'll eventually learn the truth. But
• 51:56
  Speaker 2: I am absolutely certain a plane went down because of
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: what has happened in the aftermath is if we still
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: had the ability to put planes or we still would. Remember,
• 52:05
  Speaker 2: it was only after the rescue. That's when the ceasefire happened.
• 52:08
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's a coincidence.
• 52:09
  Speaker 3: Oh, absolutely not.
• 52:11
  Speaker 1: I mean, many people will find it an unbelievable story.
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: That's fine.
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: But let's just take it at face value to Sagar's point.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: It is very clear that because of this incident and
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: whatever occurred here that Trump got freaked out. It was
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: right after this that you had the civilizational threat and
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: then you had the biggest taco of the entire Iran
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: war when he completely capitulates. signs what John Mearsheimer has
• 52:34
  Speaker 1: described as a surrender document and moves forward with the
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: memo of understanding that we then went ahead and undermined
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: because Trump just could not accept the reality of the
• 52:43
  Speaker 1: actual acknowledgement of loss that that would entail. But if
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: you take it at face value, think of how close
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: we came to losing this man either to Iran or
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: to death over Iran. I mean, if it really hit
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: the ground at 100 miles per hour, okay, terminal velocity
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: speed for a human is 120. Like, you do not survive. Like,
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: your body just implodes at that speed. 100 is very
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: close to there. Very few documented instances of someone surviving
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: a fall at that speed and from that height.
• 53:18
  Speaker 3: So think of how close.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: We were to, you know, something that could have been
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: absolutely horrific, either in terms of his death. And so, look,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: this is very clearly, whether the story is completely true
• 53:30
  Speaker 1: or completely false or somewhere in between, it's very clear
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: that this is just blatant pro-war propaganda because, of course,
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: people are going to look at this man and be
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: inspired by the tenacity, by the fact that, you know,
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: we wouldn't leave him behind and the level of the
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: effort that was marshaled.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: But nowhere in the piece does it ask, For what?
• 53:50
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: Like, for what did this man have his life risked
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: and almost ended and suffered catastrophic traumatic injuries that he
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: may never recover from?
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, literally broke his back during this fall.
• 54:01
  Speaker 1: For what did we remember all the aircraft that we
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: marshaled and then had to blow up because they got
• 54:06
  Speaker 1: stuck in the sand? Like, for what did we do?
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: For what is any of this happening? None of that
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: enters the piece. And so that's why it's very effective.
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: pro-war propaganda because you can just look at the individuals
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: who are involved and say, look how brave and how
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: noble they are without zooming out even like one mile,
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: let alone to see the entire forest, and think about
• 54:28
  Speaker 1: what the hell are we doing any of this for
• 54:30
  Speaker 1: to begin with?
• 54:31
  Speaker 2: You'd be shocked to learn that 60 Minutes didn't do
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: any of that. And instead, it was effectively a commercial
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: for how awesome Pete Hegseth was. B10, take a listen.
• 54:40
  Speaker 9: It was a combination of factors of brave... moves that
• 54:44
  Speaker 9: Bravo made based on his training to make sure we
• 54:48
  Speaker 9: knew that he was alive. It was incredible intelligence work.
• 54:53
  Speaker 9: It was incredible satellite work. A combination of, again, exquisite
• 54:59
  Speaker 9: capabilities that only America has that allowed us, when you
• 55:02
  Speaker 9: look at the terrain of where they were, I mean,
• 55:05
  Speaker 9: I don't know if the needle in the haystack does
• 55:07
  Speaker 9: it justice.
• 55:07
  Speaker 6: When you heard that an American fighter jet was down
• 55:10
  Speaker 6: behind enemy lines in Iran, what went through your mind?
• 55:14
  Speaker 9: Probably, you know, you always knew that was possible. And
• 55:20
  Speaker 9: so immediately it's to the next steps.
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: Are they okay?
• 55:25
  Speaker 9: Does Iran know that? And, you know, whether they're alive
• 55:31
  Speaker 9: or not, we're going to go get them.
• 55:33
  Speaker 5: Right.
• 55:33
  Speaker 2: And so that was basically what this entire thing was.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: And you'll be even more shocked to learn that that
• 55:38
  Speaker 2: was the plan. Put the last piece up here on
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: the screen. This was a CNN report. It's been backed
• 55:43
  Speaker 2: up by a few others. We'll give them credit because
• 55:45
  Speaker 2: they are the ones who broke the story. Pete Hegseth
• 55:47
  Speaker 2: and political appointees pushed for the two members of the
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: F-15 to participate in the 60 Minutes report. Both airmen
• 55:55
  Speaker 2: initially expressed reservations about doing the interview, with one even
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: raising the concern about the prospect of being potentially ordered
• 56:02
  Speaker 2: to take part in the segment. While military officials were
• 56:06
  Speaker 2: also weary of revealing classified details of the rescue effort,
• 56:10
  Speaker 2: political appointees were, quote, adamant that both crews sit for
• 56:14
  Speaker 2: the interview. After the two survivors voiced concerns, Hegseth then
• 56:18
  Speaker 2: privately met with them, asked whether they would participate rather
• 56:21
  Speaker 2: than forcing their cooperation, and As a result, one eventually agreed,
• 56:26
  Speaker 2: dubbed Bravo, to sit for the on-camera interview while the
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: other declined to take part in the report. I think
• 56:32
  Speaker 2: that tells you a lot. By the way, Mr. Alpha,
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: whoever you are, you're a real American hero. You know,
• 56:37
  Speaker 2: you got shot down. You don't want to be famous.
• 56:40
  Speaker 2: Hopefully you're not writing a book. or obscuring your face
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: in an interview and trying to sue the Pentagon so
• 56:46
  Speaker 2: you can make millions of dollars and become a podcast hero.
• 56:50
  Speaker 2: It probably just had a horrific experience. As you said,
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: you're probably really angry about how it all went down.
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: Maybe I'm projecting, but you're like, you know what? I
• 57:00
  Speaker 2: don't want to be a part of this. I don't
• 57:01
  Speaker 2: want to be famous. I just want to live my life.
• 57:04
  Speaker 2: I didn't sign up necessarily for this type of shit.
• 57:06
  Speaker 2: And so look, as they say, it shows how Exeth
• 57:10
  Speaker 2: has played an unusual hands-on role in the planning process
• 57:13
  Speaker 2: for the great 60 minutes rollout that is more than
• 57:16
  Speaker 2: typical for the defense secretary. By the way, the Pentagon
• 57:19
  Speaker 2: denies this. They say that it's a complete lie, et cetera.
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: But I think you can generally say, considering who 60
• 57:26
  Speaker 2: minutes is run by, the ratings bonanza and all of this,
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: that they were expecting that from all of this, that
• 57:32
  Speaker 2: you can at least put some stock in the story.
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: I will say, and this is part of how much
• 57:37
  Speaker 2: our country has changed. Lone Survivor was one of the
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: biggest stories in this country. I remember it, you know,
• 57:42
  Speaker 2: with this, the hunt for Luttrell and all the bad details.
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: And I mean, look, even people who oppose the war
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: were like, wow, what a tremendous, you know, accomplishment about
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: what has happened here. Same with bin Laden. I mean,
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: I was here living here in Washington when that happened.
• 57:55
  Speaker 2: It was like a spontaneous outbreak of joy and all
• 57:58
  Speaker 2: of that just for, you know, some sort of catharsis
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: after 9-11. This one got not even the same amount
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: of reaction. And it's because people oppose the war. Like
• 58:07
  Speaker 2: you said, we're like, look, okay, we'll take the story
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: even on its face value. We're like, dude, yeah, like,
• 58:12
  Speaker 2: you know, your back was broken. You were forced into this.
• 58:14
  Speaker 2: For what? So we could sign a ceasefire the next day?
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, so we can not accomplish our
• 58:18
  Speaker 2: military objectives. We could accomplish, have this horrific, you know,
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: experience or this horrific disaster happened to our country. It's just,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: it doesn't, it doesn't hit the same way. And that's where,
• 58:29
  Speaker 2: you know, the Hegseth and all of them are trying
• 58:31
  Speaker 2: so hard to remanufacture so much of what it looked like.
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: Cause I remember what it was even up until 2012, 2015.
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: And that is just gone now.
• 58:41
  Speaker 1: Many of us also know people who served in Iraq
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: and Afghanistan and came home and were never the same.
• 58:47
  Speaker 4: I know.
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: Many of us know have seen what the fallout of
• 58:51
  Speaker 1: that war has continued to be, even among the people
• 58:54
  Speaker 1: who weren't on the casualty list, who came back physically
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: intact and were never the same and are haunted by,
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: for what? I watched my buddies get blown up or
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: their marriages fall apart, or slip into depression, or potentially
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: contemplate suicide or addiction.
• 59:15
  Speaker 3: For what? Taliban's back in charge in Afghanistan. What were
• 59:19
  Speaker 3: we doing? And so I think.
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: Also because we have a very tangible, visceral experience with
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: what the aftermath of these wars actually looks like for
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: the human beings who get sent into them, I think
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: that's also the reason, to your point, Sagar, that it
• 59:32
  Speaker 1: doesn't hit the way that perhaps it once did.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's right. All right, let's get to midterms.
• 59:40
  Speaker 5: All right.
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: We are keeping our eye on the midterms as they
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: are rapidly approaching. And just this morning before recording the segment,
• 59:46
  Speaker 1: we got a bombshell new poll from The New York Times, Sienna.
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: This is kind of considered the gold standard poll, very
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: closely watched. So let's go and put this up on
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: the screen. In previous elections, this poll has been kind
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: of early to observing some of the trends that have
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 1: turned out to be consequential in terms of Trump's victory
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: in 2020, some of the realignment that we've seen, especially
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 1: among non-white groups towards Republicans. In this poll, they've asked
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: the question, this is the so-called generic ballot, if the
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: 2026 general election for Congress were held today, which party's
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: candidate would you be more likely to vote for in
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: your district? Democrats, 51, Republicans, 43. If that holds, that
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: is certainly bloodbath territory. But there are other interesting numbers
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: within here.
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 3: They say Mr.
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: Trump's approval continues to languish at 38%. among likely voters
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: essentially unchanged from the lows it sank to after he went.
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 3: To war with Iran.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: You've also got voters saying they trust Democrats more than
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: Republicans on not just health care and foreign wars, but
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: also on the two issues that powered Trump's 2024 victory,
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: immigration and the economy. Further, they talk about how how
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: far independent voters have fallen from Mr.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 3: Trump.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: They say that they have soured on him just 10 percent.
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: of independent voters say the economy is better today than
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: a year ago. Only 27% of independent voters approve of
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 1: Trump's job performance overall. In the fight for Congress, 57
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: percent of independent voters say they plan to vote for
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: a Democrat compared to only 34 percent for a Republican.
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: A couple of other interesting notes here. There's a lot
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: that was kind of fascinating from this poll. They say
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: even with Mr. Trump's most loyal and durable demographic base,
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: white voters without college degrees, they now disapprove of his
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: handling of the cost of living by a 21 percentage
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: point margin. They also found those vulnerabilities for Republicans extend
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: beyond Trump. Voters see Republicans broadly as more extreme, more elitist,
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: and more corrupt than Democrats.
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 3: Voters continue to have doubts about.
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: Both parties, but they aligned more with the Democratic Party
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 1: on both cultural and economic matters than Republicans in the survey.
• 1:01:52
  Speaker 3: And finally, Mr.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: Trump's approval rating among voters under 30 stands at just
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 1: 18 percent. You will recall, of course, immediately in the
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: wake of his election, reelection in 2024, that there was
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: a lot of discourse about young men in particular and
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 1: how much they'd shifted to the right. All of that
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: has completely evaporated. 18 percent is a crazy low.
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: It makes sense. You know, this this part actually struck me.
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: And this seems to be even more bullish.
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 5: Is it?
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: Don't even just pay necessarily to party identification. Pay attention
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: to what people say that they want out of voting.
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: So they say, in general, would you rather vote for
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: a candidate who supports Trump, wants to provide a check
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 2: on Trump, or does it matter either way? Support Trump
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: is 26%. Doesn't matter is 21%. Wants a check is 49%.
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 2: I think that that overwhelming wants a check because that's
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 2: what a lot of people forget about 2016- And this
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 2: was kind of the whole idea of like the hidden
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 2: Trump voter is Trump won the election with a 30-something
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 2: percent approval rating. People were like, how is that possible?
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: It's like, well, a lot of people who don't think
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 2: he's a good guy still voted for him because they
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: wanted a check on the Democrats or they supported the
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 2: policy or they're evangelical, whatever. You can actually put that
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 2: in the same direction for Democratic Party identification. Many Democrats
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 2: are upset at the Democratic Party, so they may not identify.
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 2: That's number one. But two is you may even be
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 2: someone who doesn't like the Democratic Party but would vote
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 2: for it just to provide a check on Trump. That
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 2: is extremely common midterm behavior, and you drive it up
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 2: all the way to 10, which is very common, I think,
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 2: with the current situation. I mean, if you take a
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 2: look at some of these polls, what I find is fascinating.
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: is that they say they voters see Republicans broadly as
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 2: more extreme, more elitist and more corrupt. Those were literally
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 2: all flipped as of two years ago. Is that I mean, empirically,
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 2: the elites did vote Democrat empirically or we could put
• 1:03:56
  Speaker 2: it either way. People saw the Biden administration very corrupt
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: and then more extreme. That was the knock is that
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: these people are cultural immigrants. extremists. So the flip on that,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: as you read about that, I mean, that's got to
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: be one of the big flips. I would say that
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: you would be a lot more bullish on Democrats. The
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 2: other thing I think, fascinating part, curious what you think,
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 2: AI seems to be the one place where there are
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: plus two.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 5: I know.
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: What's going on with that?
• 1:04:20
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I don't know. I sort of attribute that to- It.
• 1:04:23
  Speaker 2: Does have the biggest don't know number. It's Democrats 40,
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: don't know 18, Republicans 42.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: Republicans have done a better job of jumping on any
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 1: time a Democrat says something like a little bit pro
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: data center. I think Republicans have done a good job
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: of jumping on that.
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 4: That's a good point.
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 1: To me, it's very much up for grabs. And Trump
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: is doing everything in his power to make it clear
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 1: that the Republicans are the party of unfettered data center
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 1: and AI deregulation. So I think that one, we'll see
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 1: where that shakes out. But it is very interesting that
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: that's where it stands today.
• 1:04:52
  Speaker 2: Yeah, Ryan Gerduski flagged this. He pulled the data center
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: numbers out of their poll. Do you support or oppose construction? Overall, 34% support, 61%
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 2: oppose construction. It holds for all demographics except for current
• 1:05:08
  Speaker 2: self-identified GOP, where it's 49-47. So after Trump polarized on
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: the data center issue, if you continue to support Republicans,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: then you're marginally going to be more supportive. Independence, though,
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: it's still 36-60. And obviously every other demographic, college Democrat,
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: college degree, Latino, black, white, 65 plus, 18 to 29,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: it's overwhelmingly against. for everybody. So that is, you know,
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit, I mean, look, New York times Sienna,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 2: it's been off many times in the past. I'm trying
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: to think 2022, it was totally wrong. 2024 was actually
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 2: by and large, pretty correct. Um, pretty much had all
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 2: the swings within the margin ish or not. I mean,
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: if you, you could have easily gone off of the
• 1:05:54
  Speaker 2: New York times Sienna poll and said, Trump is going
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 2: to win all seven swing States. And a lot of
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: people did that and they were correct. So look, that's
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 2: what I'm saying in terms of its track record. By
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: and large, yeah, it was pretty okay in the last election.
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: Before that, it whiffed hard. In 2020, it was totally wrong.
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: So you take it with whatever grain of salt, you know,
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 2: that exists. But everything's kind of lining in that direction.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: And I would put it together with the special elections
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: that we saw. There's no disparity. In 2022, the big
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: disparity was the polls said there was going to be
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: a red wave, but a lot of the special election
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: Democrats were winning. So this time around, Democrats are winning
• 1:06:25
  Speaker 2: big time. You know, you see the overperformance. Pair it
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: with the poll. Generally, that's where you seem things could go. But,
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: you know, Trump and the Republicans, sometimes things can come
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: out of nowhere.
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: One of the most important metrics I think we've seen
• 1:06:38
  Speaker 1: is the primary in Alaska because of the unusual nature
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: of Alaska elections where they do this. They run everybody
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: at once in what's called a jungle primary. And then
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: I think it's the top four, actually, that go on
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: to the next round. But in any case, Mary Paltello,
• 1:06:52
  Speaker 1: the Democrat. came very close to 50 percent in that primary.
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: And so that's not just people, whoever happens to get
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: contacted by the pollster or whoever happens to not want.
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 3: To talk to the pollster. That's real voters coming to
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 3: the polls.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: And it shows that she had a significant edge over
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: the Republican in the state of Alaska, which should be
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 1: a massive, obviously, reach.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 3: For Democrats.
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: Now, Alaska is kind of a weird state and all
• 1:07:16
  Speaker 1: of that. But to me, the big question is, is
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: this going to be a sort of run-of-the-mill backlash election,
• 1:07:24
  Speaker 1: which is very consistent with historical trends, which Democrats shockingly
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: kind of bucked in 2022. But traditionally, party in power
• 1:07:31
  Speaker 1: loses seats in the midterms.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 3: That's just the way it goes.
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: Or is this going to be something different where there
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: is a larger reckoning for the party in power? And
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: one of the indications you might look at for whether
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: or not that is going to be the case is
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 1: the significant and rapid increase in gas prices. Harry Enten
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: is tracking the numbers, saying this has been a historic
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 1: increase for a midterm election.
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 3: Let's take a listen to that.
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 7: Changing gas prices from January 1 to September 14. The
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 7: average for a midterm cycle this century is 18%. But
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 7: look at this on the right side of the screen.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 2: 52% rise this year.
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 7: 52% rise, I said, up like a rocket, right?
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: Look at that.
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 7: My goodness gracious, by far the highest on record. The
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 7: prior high was just 27%. And looking at 21st century
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 7: midterm elections, went down, all of them prior to 2026.
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 7: This year, however, the gas prices have actually been going up, up,
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 7: and away.
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: They have actually risen.
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 7: Willing to pay more because of the Iran war. Overall, 71%
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 7: say they're unwilling compared to just 29% who say, well,
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 7: look at this number among independents. 81%, 81%, four in
• 1:08:37
  Speaker 7: five say they're unwilling to pay for higher gas prices
• 1:08:40
  Speaker 7: because of the war in Iran.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: I think those numbers are extremely significant all the way around.
• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: Both the number that says, no, I'm not willing to
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 1: pay higher gas prices for this shit. I don't support
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: this whatsoever, which is different from the Ukraine war, actually.
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: You know, we were skeptical of it at the time,
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 1: and I think that skepticism bore out. But when the
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 1: Ukraine war, when Ukraine was initially invaded, people said they
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 1: were willing to. suffer and pay more in order to
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: stand with Ukraine. Totally different for the Iran war from
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: the beginning, especially with independents and certainly with Democratic voters.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 3: And then you look at that increase.
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 1: He says it has never before happened in a midterm
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 1: that those prices have gone up during this time period.
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 1: And not only have they gone up, they've gone up
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: by over 50 percent. You know, humans are not just
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 1: creatures of absolute value.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 3: We look at the change.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 1: We feel that change of what it used to be
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 1: just months ago and what it is now. And Trump
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 1: himself is acknowledging those prices are not coming back down
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 1: anytime soon.
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: I remember this with the Biden people. They would be like, well,
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: this month inflation. I was like, dude, you're not getting it. 2019,
• 1:09:41
  Speaker 2: this was the price. 2023, this is the price. Whether
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: it's plus or minus five in the last month doesn't
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: matter if it's overall 20 to 25%. All I remember
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 2: is what I paid for a paper towel compared to
• 1:09:51
  Speaker 2: where it is today. So this stat actually down at
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 2: the bottom was really interesting to me is remember one
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: of the big shifts in 2024 was that Trump won
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 2: people who made less than $ 50, 000. That was like the
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 2: biggest flip Of the Republican and Democrats, Democrats won people
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 2: making over 100 grand, Republicans won under 50. So this
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 2: time around, what they find is that if you make
• 1:10:14
  Speaker 2: under 50, the current break is 63% Democrat, 31% Republican.
• 1:10:19
  Speaker 2: So that is a complete flip from where things were.
• 1:10:22
  Speaker 2: And they say almost all of that is ascribed to
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: economic precarity and economic hardship. More than half of the
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: voters said that they worry about Republicans in Congress allowing
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: Trump to go too far on the economy, and specifically
• 1:10:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of it comes back to Iran. So if
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 2: you really want to look at where Trump screwed himself,
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: it was Iran. And there's a geopolitical sense. There's really
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: also just a dollars and cents. I mean, it doesn't
• 1:10:47
  Speaker 2: take a genius to figure it out. $ 4. 30 of gasoline
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 2: is crazy. $ 6. 26 gallon diesel is nuts. I mean, it's
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: just going to continue showing up in everything. And everybody knows,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: they even quoted a woman inside of it, who said,
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: I was so excited to get my new job. And
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: now every single bill that I have has gone up.
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: I mean, I know this has happened. If you need
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: housework done or something, oh my God, you get these quotes.
• 1:11:13
  Speaker 2: You're like, I'm, you know, time to fire up YouTube.
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: Try and do it myself. Do a shitty job. It's
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: better than paying some guy, you know, 90% of what
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: you think it should cost. That has happened with everything.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 2: And just, you know, it's just the most basic political
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: instinct in the world.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 5: Yeah.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 1: Let me put this next piece up on the screen
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 1: here from David Dayen over at American Prospect, because I
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: think this really gets to it. It cuts through what
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: are the Republicans saying? What are the Democrats saying? What
• 1:11:41
  Speaker 1: are the polls, publicly available polls saying?
• 1:11:44
  Speaker 3: Follow the money.
• 1:11:45
  Speaker 1: Where are Republicans actually spending money?
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 3: And so of.
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 1: The 49 seats, he says, that have received at least
• 1:11:53
  Speaker 1: some cash from top GOP-aligned super PACs. Only six were
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: won by Kamala Harris in 2024. So of the 49
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: seats they're targeting, only six are ones that Kamala Harris won.
• 1:12:07
  Speaker 1: And that doesn't even mean they're flips. That just means
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 1: that's places where they feel like they may have a
• 1:12:12
  Speaker 1: shot at winning on Kamala Harris' territory. Twenty-one of them
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 1: were won by Trump by nine points or more Eight
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: of them were won by over 13 points. Let me
• 1:12:23
  Speaker 1: say that again. Republicans are having to spend money in
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 1: congressional districts Trump won by double digits, 13 points or more.
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 3: Those are the sort of seats.
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 1: That any normal GOP incumbent would be, oh, I'm in
• 1:12:37
  Speaker 1: a safe seat. Trump won my district by 15 points.
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: I am not in jeopardy whatsoever. Not so fast. Republicans
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 1: are having to spend money to defend in deep red territory.
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 1: He goes on to say the contested districts include 10
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 1: in Texas, Florida and North Carolina, where Trump's allies deliberately
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: redrew maps to hand Republicans more districts. If Republicans lose
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 1: every district receiving some spending in Texas, it would result
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 1: in Democrats picking up.
• 1:13:04
  Speaker 3: One seat in that state.
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 1: So even in the states that were gerrymandered to try
• 1:13:08
  Speaker 1: to forestall any sort of Democratic gains, it is possible
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 1: that Democrats will still gain seats even with those rigged maps.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 3: So I thought that was a.
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: Really clever way to look at what is actually going
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 1: on here, because if you see where they're spending money,
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 1: you can see how they actually feel that this election
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: is going to go.
• 1:13:27
  Speaker 3: Trump is hoping that.
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: This desperate ploy of offering a $ 5, 000 check if Republicans
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 1: win that I don't think anyone has any confidence is
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: actually going to happen, nor should you. He posted this
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: on True Social yesterday. The $ 5, 000 Trump dividend to be
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: given to all adults in the U.S. due to the
• 1:13:43
  Speaker 1: fact our country is taking in trillions of dollars of
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: economic development investment and pure success is being criticized by
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: Democrats who are hoping it never happens.
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 3: But it will.
• 1:13:53
  Speaker 1: As an example, the Democrats said the great, big, beautiful bill,
• 1:13:56
  Speaker 1: one of the largest ever approved by Congress or signed
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: into law by a president, happened, despite the Democrats saying
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: it would be impossible to get it approved.
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 3: I don't think anyone ever said that anyway. Or the
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 3: gift of $ 1, 776.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: That I gave last year to our military was an
• 1:14:09
  Speaker 1: almost guaranteed nonstarter. Everyone said it couldn't be done, but
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: it was. Our military patriots got the money and loved it.
• 1:14:15
  Speaker 1: When I say something, I mean it.
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 4: Okay.
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: The $ 5, 000 dividend will happen because the people of our
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: country deserve it.
• 1:14:21
  Speaker 3: Vote Republican. Make America great again.
• 1:14:23
  Speaker 1: So he's still pushing this sort of like desperate attempt
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: to once again offer a check to the American people.
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: You know, we had the Doge refunds. We had the
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: tariff rebates, none of which happened. And if he wanted
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 1: to do this so badly, he's got his Republicans in
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: the House and the Senate. He could certainly do it
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 1: right now. And I support him moving in that direction.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 2: It's pretty, pretty funny. One thing I do think is
• 1:14:45
  Speaker 2: actually interesting. uh, around all of this is how it
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: will shake out in the, in, like you said, in
• 1:14:52
  Speaker 2: the Alaska's in the mains, because ever since the tea
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: party wave, there just hasn't been that many of these
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 2: types of places left, which buck the trends and have
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: the so-called Mavericks. Susan Collins has been one of those people,
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: Murkowski or Alaska generally has been kind of one of
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: those places. And that's what makes that, you know, West Virginia,
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: you had Joe Manchin, But by and large, it just
• 1:15:14
  Speaker 2: didn't really exist. This does seem like it could be
• 1:15:17
  Speaker 2: a turning point in the other direction where for the
• 1:15:20
  Speaker 2: first time ever, people do buck partisanship or people actually
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 2: just go straight partisan or like, I'm sorry, I no
• 1:15:27
  Speaker 2: longer believe in the so-called maverick like Susan Collins. And
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: that's the one place where like with Joe Manchin, for example,
• 1:15:35
  Speaker 2: let's put C8. up on the screen. He's come out
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: and endorsed Susan Collins.
• 1:15:39
  Speaker 4: He says, you lose Susan Collins.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 3: And he endorsed Mike Rogers, too.
• 1:15:42
  Speaker 2: Right. And Mike Rogers. You're losing the soul of the Senate.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: Susan is always in there, always in the trenches. It
• 1:15:48
  Speaker 2: just seems like it's one of those where it doesn't
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 2: seem tenable. Again, I could be wrong. I was totally wrong.
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: I remember in 2020, I thought she was going to
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: go down. There was a poll that had her down
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: by 13 points or something. Obviously, she won her election.
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: But it does seem that the trends are shifting. very
• 1:16:05
  Speaker 2: much against her type of politician, and especially with, if
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 2: there's a real wave, like this guy Rob Sand in Iowa,
• 1:16:11
  Speaker 2: you know? I mean, if things like that happen, it
• 1:16:14
  Speaker 2: really does rewrite the rules of what is actually possible.
• 1:16:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you may end up with a few
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 3: prairie populists.
• 1:16:19
  Speaker 2: It's possible.
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 3: You got Josh, well, Josh.
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 1: Chirk is a Senate candidate who has a real shot
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 1: in Iowa. I think Sands will win the Iowa governor's race, but,
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: you know, the governor's races are a little bit different.
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 1: That wouldn't be as crazy as winning Senate races. I
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: think Iowa's in play. I think Nebraska with Dan Osborne
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: is in play. I think Kansas is in play. You
• 1:16:38
  Speaker 1: have to look at the polling at this point and say,
• 1:16:40
  Speaker 1: it's not crazy to imagine those things. with James Tallarico
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: being truly, truly contested. Actually, I think we have this.
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 1: One of the ratings agencies, put C6 up on the screen,
• 1:16:52
  Speaker 1: has shifted Texas from a toss-up to lean D, or well,
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: tilt D, I should say.
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 3: This is Vote Hub.
• 1:16:58
  Speaker 1: They say their model gives James Tallarico a 55% chance
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 1: of defeating Ken Paxton. Tallarico's consistently led in polling. His
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: advantage remains within the margin of error. The race is
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 1: still extremely close. I saw a number of analysts. I
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: can't remember if it was Nate Silver or not, but
• 1:17:10
  Speaker 1: I think it was saying that his model also has
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 1: Tallarico in the lead on just the polling. But it's
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 1: the fundamentals that keeps it in that toss up zone.
• 1:17:20
  Speaker 1: The closer you get to Election Day, the more that
• 1:17:23
  Speaker 1: the polling begins to count and weigh into those models.
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: So you are likely to see other models shift that
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: race away from Republicans, away from.
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 3: Toss up and towards tilt D, which is crazy. It's Texas.
• 1:17:35
  Speaker 1: Now, people actually have to go and vote. And Texas,
• 1:17:38
  Speaker 1: of course, the white whale of the Democratic Party. But
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: put C3 up on the screen. You know, Nebraska, another
• 1:17:43
  Speaker 1: place that we have our eye on. Dan Osborne, we've
• 1:17:45
  Speaker 1: had on the show a few times, running as an independent.
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 1: I think you can really act as a union leader,
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: you know, very populist. That's really what his focus is.
• 1:17:53
  Speaker 1: Ricketts is, meanwhile, like a billionaire, but at least a multi-multi-millionaire.
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 1: And this new poll has Osborne, and this is not
• 1:18:00
  Speaker 1: the only one, up by four points. So that one, too,
• 1:18:04
  Speaker 1: I think is in range and a possibility for Democrats.
• 1:18:08
  Speaker 1: So that's where I say, you know, really the question
• 1:18:11
  Speaker 1: at this point is, is this going to be a
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 1: normal backlash election? Are you going to see some crazy
• 1:18:15
  Speaker 1: shit like Democrats winning a Kansas? Are you going to
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: see some really wild swings where now you have Democrats
• 1:18:22
  Speaker 1: winning states that no one would have thought were in
• 1:18:25
  Speaker 1: range for them whatsoever?
• 1:18:27
  Speaker 3: Last little update for you guys. Mitch McConnell is back.
• 1:18:32
  Speaker 3: In the Senate.
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 2: He's alive.
• 1:18:34
  Speaker 3: Let's put C5 up. Returns to the Senate, casting his
• 1:18:37
  Speaker 3: first vote. I can't say he's looking great.
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: Oh, he looks awful.
• 1:18:41
  Speaker 3: But he is alive.
• 1:18:43
  Speaker 1: And so maybe he'll be the great, maybe he will
• 1:18:46
  Speaker 1: turn things around for Republicans here down the stretch.
• 1:18:49
  Speaker 2: He's so inspiring.
• 1:18:50
  Speaker 1: By his return to the Senate that they'll show up
• 1:18:53
  Speaker 1: in droves to vote for more Republican leaders.
• 1:18:55
  Speaker 2: I am pretty annoyed that they all took photos of him,
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 2: even though he allegedly spoke. But they and they quoted him.
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: I think he spoke in a part of the Capitol
• 1:19:03
  Speaker 2: where you're not allowed to record. I'm pretty sure.
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 3: And that would be very in touch.
• 1:19:07
  Speaker 2: Yes, of course. Of course. Yeah. And so he only
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: appeared in public in a place where he's not he's
• 1:19:14
  Speaker 2: literally not speaking. I mean, the videos of him like
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: leaving his house and stuff are wild, like in terms
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: of not just his wheelchair, but like full on having
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: to be buckled into his own car seat. You know, yes. Look,
• 1:19:27
  Speaker 2: why anyone goes, I'm ready to get back to work
• 1:19:30
  Speaker 2: and doesn't just retire. when you literally can't even buckle
• 1:19:33
  Speaker 2: your own seatbelt, that is beyond me. But that is
• 1:19:36
  Speaker 2: the narcissism of the people who currently exist in our Congress.
• 1:19:39
  Speaker 3: Yeah, true.