Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA DFS | Tour Championship | 8/20/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A

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PGA DFS | Tour Championship | 8/20/25 | Weather, Ownership, Lineup Construction and Q+A · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

0:09
Speaker 1: Fall system's going clear.
0:10
Speaker 2: We lift.
0:40
Speaker 1: What's going on, golf fans. It's your boy g s
0:42
Speaker 1: Luke here with our DFS live stream for the Tour Championship.
0:45
Speaker 1: It's the last regular event of the season before we've
0:48
Speaker 1: got yourselves the Fall Swing in a few weeks, so
0:50
Speaker 1: it's take advantage. We got ourselves a star stunted field
0:53
Speaker 1: as well, and also a golf course that I was
0:55
Speaker 1: lucky enough to walk through last year and get an
0:57
Speaker 1: idea of how it played after renovation. So I feel
0:59
Speaker 1: like I have a up with maybe some other people
1:01
Speaker 1: and how it's gonna play. Excited to potentially take advantage
1:04
Speaker 1: of that this week, and excited of course to have
1:06
Speaker 1: another golf slate to take down. So hopefully a week
1:09
Speaker 1: has been treating you guys nicely. You're ready to get
1:11
Speaker 1: after all this golf action. Feel free to hit me
1:14
Speaker 1: up with any specific questions that you've gotten to the
1:16
Speaker 1: live chat that can be playerful, deep dives that he
1:18
Speaker 1: processed to be stuff for this week, maybe how to
1:20
Speaker 1: handle a thirty player field, whatever the case may be,
1:23
Speaker 1: feel free to let me know. But a few things
1:24
Speaker 1: that we're going to talk through together that'll include the weather,
1:27
Speaker 1: we're gonna go through ownership from eight K plus. We're
1:29
Speaker 1: also going to talk through some lineup construction towards the
1:31
Speaker 1: end that anything on top of that that you're curious about.
1:34
Speaker 1: Everything is fair game in the chat. So you got
1:37
Speaker 1: Steven Downler says, let's roll that dimple ball. I couldn't
1:40
Speaker 1: say it better myself. Aimen to that. Let's hope we
1:42
Speaker 1: get some run good on those greens, and let's talk
1:44
Speaker 1: about the Tour Championship. So first things first, let's make
1:47
Speaker 1: sure we're all on the same page for this week,
1:49
Speaker 1: because this Tour championship's a little bit different than what
1:52
Speaker 1: we've had over the last few years. Normally, there's a
1:54
Speaker 1: handicapping process that occurs after the BMW Championship, where we
1:59
Speaker 1: had guys starting at minus ten over the last few events,
2:02
Speaker 1: and then some guys that were starting at even par
2:04
Speaker 1: so it was based on where you ended up in
2:06
Speaker 1: the FedEx Cup rankings. Number one was at minus ten,
2:09
Speaker 1: number two started at minus eight. That that entire format
2:13
Speaker 1: was scrapped for twenty twenty five, so this is essentially
2:16
Speaker 1: just a regular no cut event. The difference from some
2:19
Speaker 1: of the other no cut events that we've had is
2:20
Speaker 1: that there's only thirty players, which means that the spread
2:23
Speaker 1: from the first to the last tea time is only
2:25
Speaker 1: like three hours. Is not quite as you know, a
2:27
Speaker 1: big of a field as we normally have at these
2:29
Speaker 1: kind of events. But rather than having a clear cut winner,
2:33
Speaker 1: you know Scotty that was minus money to start the
2:35
Speaker 1: week last year, he's only plus two hundred this time around,
2:38
Speaker 1: which is still ridiculous even in the thirty player field
2:41
Speaker 1: that he has those kind of odds. But a little
2:43
Speaker 1: bit different here for this season. And it's also worth
2:46
Speaker 1: knowing that the golf course did get renovated last year.
2:48
Speaker 1: That was part of the reason that I wanted to
2:50
Speaker 1: be there on site to see some of those changes.
2:53
Speaker 1: And it did play easier, but that's partially because they
2:55
Speaker 1: made it a par seventy one. It was typically a
2:58
Speaker 1: par seventy setup. They made I believe it was twelve
3:00
Speaker 1: or fourteen one of those two holes a par five
3:03
Speaker 1: for last year's events, rather than playing it as a
3:06
Speaker 1: par seventy one. They're going back to the par seventy
3:09
Speaker 1: this year, So that's really the big course change from
3:11
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four to twenty twenty five. The renovation, though
3:14
Speaker 1: that happened before last year's event was where a vast
3:17
Speaker 1: majority of those changes happened. So last year driving accuracy
3:21
Speaker 1: was probably the most important stat that we had in
3:24
Speaker 1: terms of correlation to success, and then also your regular
3:27
Speaker 1: shots gained approach. So this year I'm going to be
3:29
Speaker 1: incorporating both of those into my analysis, more so looking
3:32
Speaker 1: for plotters off the tea that are especially second shot specialists.
3:36
Speaker 1: Those are the players that found success in the top five,
3:38
Speaker 1: top ten last year, And based on what I saw
3:41
Speaker 1: in person with the eye test, it made a whole
3:43
Speaker 1: lot of sense. The course is going to be firmer
3:45
Speaker 1: after renovation. You also have thick, sticky Bermuda grass rough
3:49
Speaker 1: now as opposed to overseed like you had for a
3:51
Speaker 1: few of the seasons in the past. And you'll know
3:53
Speaker 1: if you're a golfer in the South that Bermuda grass
3:56
Speaker 1: is really hard to hit out of an extremely unpredictable
3:59
Speaker 1: compared to these other strains of grass. And this year
4:02
Speaker 1: they're saying that the rough is a little bit lusher
4:04
Speaker 1: than what it was last year, so scoring could also
4:07
Speaker 1: get a little bit harder there. On top of them
4:09
Speaker 1: moving in from the par seventy one to a par seventy.
4:12
Speaker 1: But because they're got so much rain yesterday and they're
4:14
Speaker 1: expected to get even more rain tonight, I don't think
4:17
Speaker 1: it's gonna be as hard as it possibly could be.
4:19
Speaker 1: Like I think, if we get a year where it's
4:21
Speaker 1: firm and fast and fiery at east like, there's a
4:23
Speaker 1: chance of plays even do an over par, But because
4:26
Speaker 1: of that rain that they're getting, it's probably still gonna
4:28
Speaker 1: play at least a stroke under par. Again, so golf
4:31
Speaker 1: course isn't overly difficult. It's not a major championship type
4:34
Speaker 1: of test. In fact, the BMW Championship golf course is
4:37
Speaker 1: significantly harder the what we have for this Tour Championship.
4:40
Speaker 1: So you might think that because it's the last event
4:43
Speaker 1: where the champion's gonna get crowned, that it might be
4:46
Speaker 1: one of the harder golf courses that we're gonna see,
4:48
Speaker 1: and that is not necessarily the case. It's Bomber's Paradise,
4:50
Speaker 1: relatively wide open, a lot of shots from one twenty
4:53
Speaker 1: five to one seventy five, so it's still plenty of
4:55
Speaker 1: birdies that could be made out there. But for the
4:57
Speaker 1: weather for the first few days, it's not gonna be
5:00
Speaker 1: as big a factors what we normally have a lot
5:02
Speaker 1: of times in bigger fields, we might get a little
5:04
Speaker 1: bit of a split over the first few rounds. But
5:06
Speaker 1: because there's only about three hours from the first to
5:08
Speaker 1: the last tea time, and I actually think it might
5:10
Speaker 1: even be a little bit less than that from the
5:12
Speaker 1: first to the last tea time, there's little to no
5:14
Speaker 1: chance for weather edge. And you'll see in the Thursday
5:16
Speaker 1: forecast that it looks almost completely flat as well. You're
5:19
Speaker 1: talking about sub ten miles an hour win the entire day,
5:22
Speaker 1: in fact, close to one miles an hour for a
5:25
Speaker 1: majority of that rounds. And while there might be a
5:27
Speaker 1: little bit of a pop up storm around six pm,
5:29
Speaker 1: they're going to be finishing up play around then, if
5:32
Speaker 1: not completely finished by the time that storm heads through.
5:34
Speaker 1: So Thursday looks about as flat as we could possibly see.
5:38
Speaker 1: And then if we go to the neam model, which
5:39
Speaker 1: we'll do for the Friday forecast, as it'll be fully
5:42
Speaker 1: loaded in at this point, it also looks extremely flat
5:45
Speaker 1: in maybe a slightly better chance of there being a
5:48
Speaker 1: storm in the afternoon, but even then, the winds look
5:51
Speaker 1: so flat at that point. In fact, the wind gusts
5:53
Speaker 1: are actually a little bit higher in the morning than the afternoon,
5:56
Speaker 1: so even if they have to play through a little
5:58
Speaker 1: bit of a sprinkle in the afternoon, the lower wind
6:00
Speaker 1: gusts probably make up for that. So over the first
6:03
Speaker 1: few rounds, I see little to no weather edge to
6:05
Speaker 1: really lean into. And maybe for Showdown, like if there's
6:08
Speaker 1: going to be the wind kicking up one day, where
6:11
Speaker 1: you know, maybe the first hour and a half two
6:12
Speaker 1: hours of tee times are calmer than what we have
6:14
Speaker 1: for the rest of the day. Maybe for Showdown rounds
6:16
Speaker 1: two to four, which we will be covering here on
6:18
Speaker 1: the channel as well, we could attack it with a
6:20
Speaker 1: little bit of a micro edge. But for rounds one
6:23
Speaker 1: and two and for main sleeate purposes, it doesn't look
6:25
Speaker 1: like there's that much to attack at this point. So
6:28
Speaker 1: I'll be looking at the round one averages when we
6:30
Speaker 1: get Data Golf to load those in for tomorrow. The
6:32
Speaker 1: first versus the second half of tea times is going
6:35
Speaker 1: to be something that I'm keeping a close eye on,
6:37
Speaker 1: but I'm not expecting there to be a really big
6:39
Speaker 1: split from that department before we start talking about actually
6:41
Speaker 1: building lineups, and it's important to go through some ownership
6:44
Speaker 1: as well as any player pool deep dives that you've
6:46
Speaker 1: got for me in the chat. So I'm going to
6:47
Speaker 1: bring up my projections next. These are from my patron page,
6:50
Speaker 1: a little bit different than what's posted on the ship
6:52
Speaker 1: at Nation website, but I want to go from the
6:54
Speaker 1: AK players and above with their ownership to give you
6:57
Speaker 1: guys an idea of where the field is going because
6:59
Speaker 1: we can talk course fit, the best plays of the week,
7:02
Speaker 1: leverage candidates, et cetera, et cetera. But the most important
7:05
Speaker 1: part about having a sounds PGADFS process, especially if you're
7:10
Speaker 1: playing in the large fild GPPs or even like single
7:12
Speaker 1: entry sort of contest, is knowing that you're not just
7:15
Speaker 1: trying to build the best lineup that you can. If
7:17
Speaker 1: you're trying to do that, by the way, just entern
7:19
Speaker 1: a cash or a double up right. There are formats
7:21
Speaker 1: where if you just want to optimize for projection, you
7:24
Speaker 1: can do so, which is something that a lot of
7:26
Speaker 1: people do with my projections, especially the ones that I
7:28
Speaker 1: post on my Patreon page. I take a lot of
7:31
Speaker 1: pride in being a stat nerd and somebody that in
7:34
Speaker 1: my opinion, has some if not the most accurate projections
7:37
Speaker 1: that you have of all these different sites. But that's
7:39
Speaker 1: not what we're playing for the large l GPPs, right,
7:41
Speaker 1: We're not trying to optimize on projection. We're not trying
7:44
Speaker 1: to go out there and just say give me the
7:45
Speaker 1: best six players that you can. We're trying to win
7:48
Speaker 1: first place in large filld GPPs where there could be
7:51
Speaker 1: twenty to thirty fifty thousand other entries and those sort
7:54
Speaker 1: of formats. You not only have to have a really
7:57
Speaker 1: good lineup, you have to have a really good lineup
7:59
Speaker 1: that beats everyone else that you're playing against, which means
8:01
Speaker 1: if we can take players at lower ownership numbers, you know,
8:04
Speaker 1: less people sharing them on anyone that you're using in
8:07
Speaker 1: your set of six players, that is going to be massive.
8:10
Speaker 1: And what makes this slate a little bit more unique
8:13
Speaker 1: is that we only have thirty players to choose from.
8:15
Speaker 1: So normally, even after the cut line, we've got what
8:17
Speaker 1: like sixty five to seventy at the very least that
8:20
Speaker 1: we have to play through. We have half of that.
8:22
Speaker 1: And this is going to be for all four rounds, right,
8:24
Speaker 1: This isn't just for you know, rounds three and four
8:26
Speaker 1: showdown this week, all four rounds we're only going to
8:29
Speaker 1: have thirty players, which means your average ownership this week,
8:32
Speaker 1: and you've really got to recalibate, calibrate your brain based
8:35
Speaker 1: on this is twenty percent, right, there's six hundred percent
8:37
Speaker 1: of ownership to go around. There's six spots in your
8:39
Speaker 1: DraftKings line up thirty players. That means the average ownership
8:42
Speaker 1: is twenty percent. So those Scottie Scheffler looks egregiously high owned.
8:46
Speaker 1: I mean a normal slate, thirty eight percent would be
8:49
Speaker 1: just ridiculously high owned compared to the other guys around them.
8:53
Speaker 1: It's actually not that bad on a slate like this,
8:55
Speaker 1: he's only ten percent higher road than Rory. Now, part
8:57
Speaker 1: of the reason that he's only i'll put that in
9:00
Speaker 1: quotes thirty eight percent owns is because he's fourteen grands, right,
9:03
Speaker 1: He's hard to fit into lineups. Even if you love
9:05
Speaker 1: a Scottie Shuffler, you've got to really like guys on
9:07
Speaker 1: the six k range if you're gonna make him work.
9:10
Speaker 1: But because the ownership is so condensed, and even in
9:13
Speaker 1: the six k range, I know ownership's blacked out, but
9:16
Speaker 1: there are guys down here that are fifteen to sixteen
9:19
Speaker 1: point nine percent. Like you can see there under Brian Harmon,
9:21
Speaker 1: a lot of times your highestone six K guy is
9:23
Speaker 1: like four to five percent owns. So ownership is just
9:26
Speaker 1: a completely different scenario. This week, I would say that
9:30
Speaker 1: it's much more about leaving salary on the table. It's
9:32
Speaker 1: much more about the kind of contest that you're entering
9:34
Speaker 1: that you should be focusing on from this ownership perspective.
9:37
Speaker 1: But you could still generate a game theory edgenal like this.
9:39
Speaker 1: It's not gonna be as big a deal as you're
9:42
Speaker 1: getting a little bit more creative with your lineup construction
9:44
Speaker 1: to make sure that you're not duplicating yourself. But it
9:47
Speaker 1: can't be completely ignored, right because if you have a
9:49
Speaker 1: set of six players, even if you leave like one
9:51
Speaker 1: thousand dollars on the table that are all twenty five
9:54
Speaker 1: percent plus owned, then even if all of your players hit,
9:57
Speaker 1: you're not gonna have that much leverage on the rest
9:58
Speaker 1: of the field. In Yeah, maybe you're unique because you
10:01
Speaker 1: left like fifteen hundred dollars on the table, but you
10:04
Speaker 1: might not duplicate yourself, but the rest of the field
10:07
Speaker 1: is still gonna have really good lineups as well, because
10:10
Speaker 1: all the Chalk ended up going off, So you can't
10:12
Speaker 1: completely ignore the ownership thing on a week like this,
10:14
Speaker 1: even if you plan on leaving that salary on the table,
10:17
Speaker 1: because getting differentiation is always helpful. It helps you pass
10:20
Speaker 1: up more people when your players go off, and that
10:23
Speaker 1: is always something that is valuable. Let's go through ownership.
10:26
Speaker 1: So we mentioned Scotty at nearly forty percent. He as
10:28
Speaker 1: your highest stoned player on the slate, as everyone could
10:30
Speaker 1: have probably guessed. But after that, there's not a really
10:33
Speaker 1: big range. Your highest stones players are around twenty eight percent.
10:36
Speaker 1: That for me is a ror of Tommy Fleetwood from
10:38
Speaker 1: eight k plus in your quote unquote low owned players
10:41
Speaker 1: are players like a JT and A can't lay that.
10:43
Speaker 1: I've got it about sixteen to seventeen percent, respectively. So
10:47
Speaker 1: that's a ten to maybe eleven percent range from your
10:49
Speaker 1: highest to your low stone players. And this is for
10:51
Speaker 1: large feld GPPs, so this is meant for like the
10:53
Speaker 1: Big five or twenty five dollars. It is worth noting
10:55
Speaker 1: that its single entries that the ownership gets more polarized.
10:59
Speaker 1: What I mean by the will do the spark cohosed version,
11:01
Speaker 1: I could do a whole hour segment on this sort
11:03
Speaker 1: of stuff I used to do in a lot of
11:05
Speaker 1: the lineup review stuff that I would do on Mondays.
11:07
Speaker 1: But in single entries, the general trend is that ownership
11:11
Speaker 1: gets more polarized. By polarization, I mean that the higher
11:14
Speaker 1: rowned guys or even higher rounds, and that the lower
11:16
Speaker 1: rouned guys are even lower owned. So what happens is
11:20
Speaker 1: your players like of Tommy Fleetwood a Roy mclroy will
11:22
Speaker 1: be well over thirty percent in single unch of contests,
11:25
Speaker 1: whereas players that are being slightly squeezed, like for example,
11:29
Speaker 1: you're justin Thomas's your can't lay as that are closer
11:31
Speaker 1: to sixteen seventeen percent end up a lot lower owned
11:34
Speaker 1: than you would have expected ahead of time. So that's
11:36
Speaker 1: another thing to consider on this kind of slate is
11:39
Speaker 1: that it also depends on the contest or entering. If
11:41
Speaker 1: you're in a single entry and you really want to
11:43
Speaker 1: try and get a spot of differentiation, a lot of
11:45
Speaker 1: times your initial instinct is to go down to the
11:48
Speaker 1: six K range seven K range because we have players
11:51
Speaker 1: that are sub five percent down there. But that's not
11:53
Speaker 1: the case this week. Like, if you want to get
11:55
Speaker 1: your differentiation, you can do it pretty much wherever you
11:58
Speaker 1: want to, whether that's with your nine your ten k options.
12:00
Speaker 1: Like even in the ten k range, you can get
12:02
Speaker 1: a little bit different by getting to a love Big
12:03
Speaker 1: Go Bear. It's a slightly different slate when it comes
12:06
Speaker 1: to that ownership bangle, So you can't ignore ownership up top,
12:10
Speaker 1: and I would see, especially on a slate like this,
12:12
Speaker 1: when the ownership down low is a lot higher than
12:15
Speaker 1: what we're used to seeing a few other players that
12:18
Speaker 1: are worth noting what the ownership would be a Russell Henley.
12:20
Speaker 1: He's also getting a little bit of steam, would say,
12:22
Speaker 1: at about twenty five percent, and then maybe even a
12:25
Speaker 1: more kabba in the AK range, which is kind of
12:27
Speaker 1: surprising to me given that he's got some of the
12:29
Speaker 1: worst form of anyone in the field. In fact, he's
12:32
Speaker 1: got the second to worst form over his last twelve
12:34
Speaker 1: measured rounds, losing about point nine shots gained per rounds.
12:38
Speaker 1: But still I think the eighty three hundred dollars price
12:40
Speaker 1: tag him being way too cheap and people trying to
12:43
Speaker 1: jam in as much Scottie Shuffler as they possibly can
12:46
Speaker 1: is getting him a little bit more steam than a
12:48
Speaker 1: lot of these other players. So just keep that in mind.
12:51
Speaker 1: With going through the ownership, I do have to cut
12:52
Speaker 1: it off with the ak range as I run my
12:54
Speaker 1: own site, my own projection page, as I've already told
12:57
Speaker 1: you guys at one point already, so I do have
13:00
Speaker 1: to cut it off to keep that behind the paywall.
13:02
Speaker 1: So if you guys want to do see this entire
13:04
Speaker 1: sheet completely uncensored. It's got my entire player pull on it,
13:07
Speaker 1: my bets, all the ownership for the bottom end of
13:09
Speaker 1: the board as well. You can check that out on
13:11
Speaker 1: my Patreon page. That is on my ex last Twitter.
13:13
Speaker 1: It's in my bio. There's a link to it. Golf.
13:16
Speaker 1: The F tier is how you get access to these,
13:18
Speaker 1: so I do these for mainstet. I also do them
13:20
Speaker 1: for showdowns for rounds two through four, so make sure
13:22
Speaker 1: to check that out as well. Now we've gone through ownership,
13:25
Speaker 1: we can catch on any specific questions that you guys have.
13:28
Speaker 1: So I've got recent form on here over the last
13:30
Speaker 1: i think seven or eight events. I've got event history
13:33
Speaker 1: shots gained over the last twenty four and last twelve
13:35
Speaker 1: measured rounds that we can go through to do all
13:37
Speaker 1: these deep dives in chat. So if there's any players
13:39
Speaker 1: that we maybe haven't touched on quite yet or any
13:42
Speaker 1: of your talents out there, haven't, you know, maybe given
13:44
Speaker 1: you your two cents on. This is what this live
13:46
Speaker 1: stream is going to be for. So feel free to
13:48
Speaker 1: hit me up in the live chat right now. So
13:50
Speaker 1: let's catch up, see what's going on down there, and
13:52
Speaker 1: to get this thing going. It's going on. Big Rob
13:54
Speaker 1: says over under fifty percent, Scottie, I'm right about fifty percent,
13:58
Speaker 1: So I think it depends on what you want to
14:01
Speaker 1: do up top, like how many lineups you're entering. If
14:03
Speaker 1: you're entering one hundred and fifty, you're probably playing some
14:05
Speaker 1: Scotti Shuffler this week. If you're going with a single
14:07
Speaker 1: entry only maybe twenty lineups, then there's a bigger argument
14:11
Speaker 1: for full fading a Scotty Shuffler. So I'm personally closer
14:14
Speaker 1: to that fifty percent mark myself. I'm not fully committing
14:17
Speaker 1: to them and also not taking a stance against him.
14:19
Speaker 1: That was what I did last week, It's what I've
14:21
Speaker 1: done for a lot of the season with the Scotty Shuffler,
14:24
Speaker 1: and I'm a one to fifty max player, So if
14:26
Speaker 1: I use them in fifty percent of my bills, that's
14:28
Speaker 1: seventy five, plenty of combinations to get it right with Scotty,
14:31
Speaker 1: and then I also have seventy five lineups without a
14:33
Speaker 1: Scotty shuffler. So hopefully they answers your question. And I
14:37
Speaker 1: would say that if you're going with less lineups, that
14:40
Speaker 1: you want to be more committed in either direction, like
14:42
Speaker 1: especially if you only have got like three to twenty
14:44
Speaker 1: lineups go one hundred percent or zero percent, and you
14:47
Speaker 1: only have ten lineups in either direction if you want
14:50
Speaker 1: fifty to fifty, that's not enough combinations to cover all
14:52
Speaker 1: your bases, right, even seventy five. You know, it's not
14:55
Speaker 1: like I can cover all the all the bases I
14:57
Speaker 1: went to, right, I have to prioritize the combina nations
15:00
Speaker 1: that I want within those seventy five. But it's a
15:02
Speaker 1: lot better chance of me being able to cover those
15:05
Speaker 1: with seventy fives as opposed to ten. Like in a
15:07
Speaker 1: twenty max formats, he said, if this is a driver
15:10
Speaker 1: heavy course, which bombers do, I think have a chance
15:13
Speaker 1: to come out hot. It's a driver heavy course, but
15:15
Speaker 1: I wouldn't say it's a driving distance heavy course. So
15:18
Speaker 1: if you're looking for a bomber to get hot with
15:20
Speaker 1: the accuracy, because you're gonna have to keep it in
15:23
Speaker 1: the short stuff if you want any chance to score
15:25
Speaker 1: around here, then maybe, like in Obert, one of these
15:27
Speaker 1: guys that's long and straight when he's playing his best golf,
15:30
Speaker 1: you don't really want the pot gaiters, the even Bryce
15:34
Speaker 1: and d Chambo's that tends to get a little bit
15:35
Speaker 1: wayward even when he's playing good golf. This is a
15:38
Speaker 1: golf course after renovation that is much more positional than
15:42
Speaker 1: what it was before. So yeah, maybe you're o Bears
15:45
Speaker 1: can't like and get accurate when he's hot to maybe
15:48
Speaker 1: Sam Burns those sort of players, but the accuracy is
15:51
Speaker 1: going to have to be there for sure. Can I
15:53
Speaker 1: explain what's going on with God or up? He just
15:55
Speaker 1: went off a cliff? Yeah, that's golf, man. I mean
15:57
Speaker 1: you've had a lot of guys that have done that
15:58
Speaker 1: this year. I mean Andrew Nova looked like a god
16:00
Speaker 1: for one point and then I mean at this play's
16:03
Speaker 1: number thirty in form heading into this event, they had
16:05
Speaker 1: players like Lowry last year that was on top of
16:08
Speaker 1: the mountain. I mean he was top five, top ten
16:10
Speaker 1: and the FedEx Cup for pretty much the entire season
16:12
Speaker 1: this year, he hardly snuck into the top thirty. That's
16:15
Speaker 1: just the ebb and flows of golf. People have good
16:17
Speaker 1: stretches of form, they have bad stretches of For him
16:19
Speaker 1: as well, when he won the Genesis, he had that
16:22
Speaker 1: really good top finish at the Open Championship as well.
16:25
Speaker 1: That was when he was, you know, flowing. He was
16:27
Speaker 1: in that flow stage, as they say, whether it was
16:30
Speaker 1: the golf swing was in a good spot, he was
16:31
Speaker 1: seeing the greens. Well. That happens, and that happens in
16:35
Speaker 1: every sport that you guys see, right, Guys get hot,
16:38
Speaker 1: you know, batting in baseball, pitchers get hot, they go
16:40
Speaker 1: in like five to six game win streaks. Same thing.
16:42
Speaker 1: It happens in golf all the time. And I would
16:44
Speaker 1: actually say that golf's maybe an even bigger example of
16:47
Speaker 1: that because a lot of your world's best players aren't
16:50
Speaker 1: always the best like Scotti. Scheffler is the complete opposite
16:54
Speaker 1: of that. That's why he's so great. That's why he
16:56
Speaker 1: completely blows our mind when he's always really good, like
16:59
Speaker 1: even his zame I mean, he won two majors last year.
17:02
Speaker 1: He was arguably Player of the Year. He probably shouldn't
17:05
Speaker 1: won it last year over Scotti Scheffler in my opinion,
17:07
Speaker 1: this year he didn't even make the top thirty. So
17:10
Speaker 1: that's just golf that happens with a lot of these players.
17:13
Speaker 1: Would not surprise me if in a couple of weeks,
17:15
Speaker 1: maybe in the Fall swing, when he plays once or twice,
17:18
Speaker 1: that he wins one there because he's clearly a high
17:20
Speaker 1: talent guy. He's clearly somebody that can get Han win
17:23
Speaker 1: golf tournaments. I won't forget that about him, that's for sure.
17:26
Speaker 1: It's going on Cody season wrap up. YEP. Fall Swing
17:28
Speaker 1: is going to be fun though, so I'm looking forward
17:30
Speaker 1: to that. He said, is skipping the ten k range
17:32
Speaker 1: a good way to get different? Or would the best
17:34
Speaker 1: way or what would be the best way to get
17:36
Speaker 1: different in the thirty player field? So it depends on
17:39
Speaker 1: what you mean by getting different, right, because I think
17:42
Speaker 1: there's two things that people really have coming to mind
17:45
Speaker 1: when they say that it's either duplicating yourself or getting
17:48
Speaker 1: that leverage. If you're talking about duplicating yourself, you'll leave
17:51
Speaker 1: salary on the table, which we're gonna do when we
17:52
Speaker 1: be able to line up here together. Or if you're
17:55
Speaker 1: trying to do it otherwise or just get that differentiation
17:57
Speaker 1: in there. You've got to mix in some low ow
17:59
Speaker 1: into plays. So I think it depends on exactly what
18:01
Speaker 1: you're looking for there. I don't think you have to
18:03
Speaker 1: avoid the ten k range though, Like a lot of times,
18:05
Speaker 1: and I was kind of hinting at this with the
18:07
Speaker 1: average ownership and the fact that the six k range
18:09
Speaker 1: is getting so much more steam. A lot of times
18:12
Speaker 1: the guys in the ten k range are like three
18:14
Speaker 1: five times the ownership of the rest of the field.
18:17
Speaker 1: It's not really the case here. And I know I
18:18
Speaker 1: don't have the ownership for the six seven k range
18:20
Speaker 1: up so maybe it's not easy to kind of candy
18:23
Speaker 1: to you guys. But down here Brian Harmon, it's not
18:27
Speaker 1: like he's the highest owned player in this range. He's
18:29
Speaker 1: seventeen percent owned. We've got guys like Obar up top
18:32
Speaker 1: that are twenty one percent owned. I don't think by
18:35
Speaker 1: avoiding the ten k range you're getting as different as
18:37
Speaker 1: you think you are. So yeah, it's more so about
18:39
Speaker 1: leaving Sally on the table trying to get some differentiation
18:42
Speaker 1: in there. It's it's a different week though a lot
18:44
Speaker 1: of times you'd be right right. If you avoided the
18:46
Speaker 1: ten K range for a lot of these golf tournaments,
18:47
Speaker 1: you would be getting different by default. Not so much
18:50
Speaker 1: for this kind of slate. You feel like most of
18:52
Speaker 1: your lineups are Scheffler and a rotation of the six
18:54
Speaker 1: to seven K guys. Yeah, that's gonna be a lot
18:57
Speaker 1: of people this week. Man, fourteen k is hard to make.
19:00
Speaker 1: If you want to use anyone respectable as a second
19:02
Speaker 1: man in, it's pretty much impossible. So yeah, you're gonna
19:06
Speaker 1: be with a lot of the field doing so. But
19:07
Speaker 1: there's a good argument to be made for it. I mean,
19:09
Speaker 1: he's the world's best player by far, let's see, And yeah,
19:13
Speaker 1: a lot of the field's gonna be doing that. I
19:14
Speaker 1: can't argue, he said Bridgeman or a Novak. So I
19:17
Speaker 1: don't really like questions with choosing between two players. I
19:20
Speaker 1: know my guy Tambo likes to just hit people with
19:22
Speaker 1: the coin flip there. But I'll give you some pros
19:24
Speaker 1: and cons for either one, and I'll let you make
19:26
Speaker 1: that decision for yourself, because at the end of the day,
19:29
Speaker 1: you want to be in control of your process. You
19:30
Speaker 1: don't want to just be getting your picks from touts.
19:32
Speaker 1: But I am the kind of person that will kind
19:34
Speaker 1: of lay it out for you. So with Bridgeman, you
19:36
Speaker 1: have better formed than Novack. No. Novacks number thirty in
19:38
Speaker 1: the field when it comes to the recent form ranking. However,
19:41
Speaker 1: Bridgman's also a little bit higher round than you have
19:44
Speaker 1: with an Andrew Novak. So you've got to ask yourself,
19:46
Speaker 1: is is the differentiation a really big deal. If it is,
19:49
Speaker 1: the Novak might be the player to use, especially if
19:51
Speaker 1: you're in a big field GPP. But if you're down
19:54
Speaker 1: to those two players and ownership's not that big of
19:57
Speaker 1: a deal to you. Let's say that you're in a
19:58
Speaker 1: single entry, or you've already differederentiated and you're leaving some
20:01
Speaker 1: salary on the table, then Bridgeman's probably the better play,
20:04
Speaker 1: at least for my projections. I project him a little
20:06
Speaker 1: bit better than Novack because of that recent form. But yeah,
20:09
Speaker 1: that's the laydown on that sort of combination, right. Kind
20:11
Speaker 1: of depends on the rest of your lineup, what you're
20:13
Speaker 1: looking at, what you're trying to do with your last
20:16
Speaker 1: man in, Because when we're building lineups, as we'll see here,
20:19
Speaker 1: when we build one together, you always want to have
20:21
Speaker 1: an intention about what you're trying to do right. Sometimes
20:23
Speaker 1: we're just trying to get the best plays that we
20:25
Speaker 1: can into our lineups. That would be the bridgeman out
20:27
Speaker 1: of those two. And sometimes we're trying to play against
20:30
Speaker 1: the rest of the field, and that would be where
20:31
Speaker 1: you'd want to take an Andrew Novack. Let's see. Yeah,
20:35
Speaker 1: we're going to talk about leaving salary on the table,
20:37
Speaker 1: but I would say you can leave up to two
20:39
Speaker 1: even three grand on the table and it wouldn't be
20:42
Speaker 1: crazy in a thirty player field, he said. Thoughts on Spawn,
20:45
Speaker 1: He's played well in two of the reference courses, yeah,
20:48
Speaker 1: comps that I'm looking at, but against an easier field
20:51
Speaker 1: at Sony, So he plays well positional courses, and I'd
20:53
Speaker 1: say the renovation does him wonders around the Tour Championship.
20:57
Speaker 1: Beforehand it was a little driver heavy, a little bit
20:59
Speaker 1: of a bomb and gap before they added in that
21:01
Speaker 1: Bermuda grass sticky rough. So I've got him as a
21:04
Speaker 1: decent play this week, probably six and a half out
21:06
Speaker 1: of ten. He projects better than some of the other
21:08
Speaker 1: guys in the eight K range, So I'm personally going
21:11
Speaker 1: to be using him in some lineups and a lot
21:13
Speaker 1: of it's the course fits, so I think the renovation
21:16
Speaker 1: will have to see if it holds up this year.
21:17
Speaker 1: But based on how it played in twenty twenty four,
21:19
Speaker 1: I like his chances. Harry Hall one through ten. I'll
21:22
Speaker 1: give him a seven out of ten Jason. That's without
21:25
Speaker 1: ownership being incorporated though, which we'll talk about in a
21:27
Speaker 1: second seven out of ten because of the form he's
21:30
Speaker 1: playing some of the best golf of anyone in the
21:31
Speaker 1: field in terms of his recent form ranking. I can
21:34
Speaker 1: give you an exact number on Harry Hall, but he's
21:36
Speaker 1: number five in the category. Is gaining one point seven
21:39
Speaker 1: shots gained per round, so is a good Bermuda grass putter.
21:43
Speaker 1: It is his first time ever playing at East Lakes,
21:45
Speaker 1: so that is the one critique, the one criticism that
21:48
Speaker 1: we could give for a Harry Hall play. But this
21:50
Speaker 1: also isn't a golf course, Eastlake Golf Club, that is
21:53
Speaker 1: super experienced dependent. It's not like the you know, Gusta
21:56
Speaker 1: National or the Masters, where you've got to have a
21:58
Speaker 1: few starts before you really have a fighting chance to
22:00
Speaker 1: get into contention. We've seen first timers for a lot
22:03
Speaker 1: of success at east Lake before. So yeah, Harry Hall
22:06
Speaker 1: seven out of ten. Now, what is worth noting, and
22:09
Speaker 1: I know the ownership's blacked out here, is that he
22:11
Speaker 1: is the highest zoned player that we have in this range.
22:13
Speaker 1: So you know, if ownership is something that is a
22:17
Speaker 1: pressing issue for you, then that could be of concern
22:19
Speaker 1: with using a Harry Hall. But let's say you've already
22:22
Speaker 1: got differentiation into you're leaving some salaryund the table, then
22:25
Speaker 1: by all means, Harry Hall is I think an excellent
22:27
Speaker 1: play this week. What's going on? Ross And says what's
22:30
Speaker 1: going on? Luke? Nothing much and uh yeah, let's have
22:33
Speaker 1: a week just chilling. Honestly, didn't have as much to
22:35
Speaker 1: do this week because there's only thirty players. You know,
22:37
Speaker 1: I like to do my due diligence on everyone in
22:40
Speaker 1: the field, So when there's one hundred and fifty six guys,
22:42
Speaker 1: it takes quite a bit of time. When there's thirty players,
22:45
Speaker 1: not so much. So it's been a more laid back week,
22:48
Speaker 1: but still excited for the golf to come. Is it
22:50
Speaker 1: start lineups with Henley or another flag plant player? So
22:55
Speaker 1: he said, in terms of uniqueness, are getting doomed out
22:57
Speaker 1: of the gate. I don't really know what you're asking
23:00
Speaker 1: to be honest, man, it seems like a lot of
23:02
Speaker 1: just kind of like your internal thoughts being thrown into
23:05
Speaker 1: that sort of a comment. But let's start with the
23:07
Speaker 1: first part there, because that is, I guess, really the
23:09
Speaker 1: only question that you asked. But could you start lineups
23:12
Speaker 1: with Henley for sure? Like I mentioned that you don't
23:14
Speaker 1: have to fade the ten k range, but you obviously
23:16
Speaker 1: could as well. I'm gonna have a lot of lineups
23:18
Speaker 1: that start with Tommy Fleetwood. He's one of my core plays.
23:21
Speaker 1: I like him there at a more respectable price tag.
23:23
Speaker 1: I mean, if you start with Fleetwood, you can take
23:25
Speaker 1: two or three guys from nine k plus. So it's
23:28
Speaker 1: it's not just who you play, it's how you play them.
23:30
Speaker 1: I know we talk about a lot of that with
23:32
Speaker 1: the ownership angle, and it's like you can play Chalk
23:34
Speaker 1: in one or two spots if you want to. But
23:36
Speaker 1: it's also if you play Scotti Shuffler, Like sure, he's
23:39
Speaker 1: a great buy for the best projecting player this week.
23:41
Speaker 1: He's a core play for me, Like I'm gonna have
23:43
Speaker 1: a lot of Scotti Shuffler. But if you use him,
23:45
Speaker 1: you can't use two to three guys in that nine
23:47
Speaker 1: k range, So I like lineups that start in that
23:50
Speaker 1: nine k range as opposed to the ten k range,
23:52
Speaker 1: not so much because of the ownership bangle, but because
23:54
Speaker 1: of what it opens up salary wise. So yeah, I
23:57
Speaker 1: could get behind that. Henley is maybe not my favorite
24:00
Speaker 1: player in that range. I do prefer Tommy just a
24:01
Speaker 1: little bit more, but I like hammering a lot of
24:04
Speaker 1: those players in general, like A JT. A Hobland by
24:06
Speaker 1: the way, who are also nine k range players. I'll
24:08
Speaker 1: have some of the best course history around in Eastlake
24:10
Speaker 1: Golf Club of anyone in the field. In fact, Hovland's
24:13
Speaker 1: number three. I believe JT's number one in the field
24:16
Speaker 1: with history around here. So that's another reason that I
24:19
Speaker 1: really liked that range. I'll be worried that Brian Harmon
24:21
Speaker 1: will find a bridge to live under. Shout out at
24:23
Speaker 1: the dj On that Yeah, he's a what the troll
24:25
Speaker 1: that lives under the bridge. Yeah, that's a concern, but
24:28
Speaker 1: maybe that means that he'll get to the course earlier.
24:30
Speaker 1: It can grind a little bit more. But yeah, shout
24:32
Speaker 1: out to my guy James. That was his nicknames for
24:35
Speaker 1: players were just goaded. No one's even close to it.
24:37
Speaker 1: That's for sure. What course comm do I like for
24:40
Speaker 1: East Lake? So I'll show you these, so I have
24:42
Speaker 1: them over on this right tab. But I have three
24:44
Speaker 1: that really came to mind in shorter positional Bermuda grass tracks.
24:48
Speaker 1: And this course isn't necessarily short. I mean it's seventy
24:51
Speaker 1: four hundred yards, but it plays pretty short, and it
24:53
Speaker 1: played pretty short last year. So the FedEx Saint Jude
24:56
Speaker 1: that was TPC South wind Bermuda Grass rough you really
25:00
Speaker 1: have to hit the fairways to have a chance there.
25:01
Speaker 1: I think that's gonna be the case this week, same
25:03
Speaker 1: thing at Sedgefield Country Club that's the home of the
25:05
Speaker 1: Windom Championship. And then why Ali, that's the last one
25:08
Speaker 1: I have down here. It's another shorter Bermuda grass track.
25:11
Speaker 1: That one was from earlier in the year though, So
25:13
Speaker 1: these two are from the last month, which I think
25:16
Speaker 1: maybe adds a little bit of a bonus effect. The
25:19
Speaker 1: Sony Open one, though, does give us a look at
25:21
Speaker 1: some of the earlier season stuff. So maybe somebody that
25:24
Speaker 1: was struggling over the last month and you know, didn't
25:26
Speaker 1: play their best at these top two courses, he could
25:28
Speaker 1: try and find some compcourse history from the Sony Open
25:31
Speaker 1: a little bit earlier in the year. So and as
25:33
Speaker 1: somebody mentioned that with JJ Spahn, right, he had a
25:35
Speaker 1: really good week at the Sony Open. That's a little
25:37
Speaker 1: bit of a boost of players around this track. See
25:41
Speaker 1: thoughts on fading Shuffler in one hundred and fifty lineups
25:44
Speaker 1: imply to the odds of him winning are about his ownership. Yep,
25:47
Speaker 1: that's correct. And he said if he doesn't win, then
25:49
Speaker 1: he's not worth the money. Yeah, I mean there's an
25:52
Speaker 1: argument to be made for that. I obviously don't agree
25:54
Speaker 1: with it. I think that he's gonna win this thing,
25:56
Speaker 1: so I'm using them. But if you're not as completely
25:59
Speaker 1: sold on him being a really good play, then yeah,
26:01
Speaker 1: fatom right, that's definitely a viable strategy. I would say
26:04
Speaker 1: that that's not where I'm going. That's why I'm not
26:07
Speaker 1: going to co sign that sort of a thing. But
26:09
Speaker 1: it's far from a wild thing to completely, you know,
26:11
Speaker 1: fade them, because you would be getting forty percent leverage
26:14
Speaker 1: right there. The one thing I will say, though, man,
26:16
Speaker 1: is that if you fade Scottish Shuffler, that's not enough,
26:19
Speaker 1: Like you're not gonna have enough leverage just by making
26:21
Speaker 1: that one decision, You're gonna have a lot of lineups
26:23
Speaker 1: that don't have Scotti Shuffler in it that still duplicate
26:26
Speaker 1: with like one hundred to a thousand other entries. So
26:28
Speaker 1: you've still got to leave some salar around the table.
26:30
Speaker 1: You still have to get some differentiation. Which if that's
26:33
Speaker 1: the case, and this is where I stand on it again,
26:35
Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's a one hundred percent correct. It's just my
26:37
Speaker 1: take on the slate is if you still have to
26:40
Speaker 1: get different after excluding a Scotti shuffler, then what's the
26:43
Speaker 1: point of it? Like if I mean, that's the whole
26:45
Speaker 1: reason why you want to fade them, right, it's like, oh,
26:47
Speaker 1: I'm getting leverage against the rest of the field. It's
26:49
Speaker 1: still only thirty percent of lineup, so thirty eight percent
26:52
Speaker 1: of my projections that are using them this week. It
26:54
Speaker 1: doesn't do as much as a lot of people probably
26:57
Speaker 1: think by fading a Scotti shuffler. So it's not it's crazy,
27:00
Speaker 1: it's not something that is completely outlandish, but not my
27:03
Speaker 1: favorite move on this sort of golf Tournament's see, he said,
27:06
Speaker 1: what if Scheffler gets fourth and one through three are
27:08
Speaker 1: seven grand in under? That's exactly right. He could still
27:12
Speaker 1: technically get there. But he is also right though, Yo,
27:15
Speaker 1: if he doesn't win, he's most likely not going to
27:17
Speaker 1: be in the optimal lineup, but there is at least
27:19
Speaker 1: a chance that he gets there. He said, smash those
27:22
Speaker 1: likes in your first run. You got one hundred percent Scotty.
27:24
Speaker 1: Should you be alarmed by it? No, you could run
27:26
Speaker 1: one hundred percent Scotty if you want to. I would say,
27:29
Speaker 1: especially if you have less than one hundred and fifty lineups,
27:31
Speaker 1: like twenty or less, then it really shouldn't alarm you
27:33
Speaker 1: that much at all. But if you do have a
27:35
Speaker 1: whole portfolio to work with, it's a bold decision, but
27:39
Speaker 1: it's not crazy. Just like you know, fading Scotty Shuffler
27:42
Speaker 1: zero percent isn't crazy. Using him in one hundred percent
27:44
Speaker 1: wouldn't be that crazy either. He said, you're either going
27:47
Speaker 1: know Scotty are all in with your twenty lineups. I
27:49
Speaker 1: like that. I think that's the proper thing to do
27:51
Speaker 1: if you don't have a full set of one hundred
27:53
Speaker 1: and fifty, he said, if you're playing a single bullet,
27:55
Speaker 1: should you just fade Scotty? That's the question, man. I
27:57
Speaker 1: don't think anyone can answer that for you, but yourself though,
28:00
Speaker 1: so that's a I don't know. In single entries, it's
28:03
Speaker 1: worth noting with Scotty that he could be close to
28:05
Speaker 1: fifty percent, so it's going to be pretty much a
28:07
Speaker 1: coin flip. And whether a line of pasm or not,
28:09
Speaker 1: is that. How do I feel about Sunday? He really
28:11
Speaker 1: charged up Sunday to get into the top thirty. Yeah,
28:13
Speaker 1: I'm happy for him. I'm really surprised though that he
28:15
Speaker 1: even made this golf tournament. I mean, he had what
28:18
Speaker 1: like two top fifteen finishes in the last three months,
28:21
Speaker 1: So happy for him. I call him Someday for a reason.
28:24
Speaker 1: He's one of my favorite players that we have in
28:26
Speaker 1: this field. But I don't know. I'm all sketched out
28:29
Speaker 1: by the form. I hope that he has a good week.
28:31
Speaker 1: He's going to be low in to GPPs as well,
28:33
Speaker 1: so you know, he's a pretty good leverage spot if
28:35
Speaker 1: you're looking to do that. But his projection is really
28:38
Speaker 1: suffering because of that form. So yeah, that's the lowdown
28:41
Speaker 1: of my guy Sunjay. And he said the odds of
28:43
Speaker 1: that are negligible. I don't know about that, man. That's
28:47
Speaker 1: a it could happen I would say that you're right
28:49
Speaker 1: most of the time, but we've had that happen a
28:51
Speaker 1: few times here before. I mean, this is the first time.
28:54
Speaker 1: I shouldn't even say that because it's so much different
28:56
Speaker 1: this time around as well. We've had almost every time
29:00
Speaker 1: pass the chalk has gone there in the ten k
29:02
Speaker 1: range because we've had starting strokes. There's no starting strokes
29:04
Speaker 1: this time around, right, So you have to kind of
29:06
Speaker 1: look at it as a regular event, And in regular
29:09
Speaker 1: events is other times where the seven k range is
29:11
Speaker 1: up there with just one guy in the ten case. Yeah,
29:13
Speaker 1: that happens quite often on the PGA tour, so he's
29:16
Speaker 1: not wrong for saying that, but you are right more
29:19
Speaker 1: than more often than not. I would say it's a
29:22
Speaker 1: there's a good chance that it is going to be
29:24
Speaker 1: a ten k guy that gets there if Scotty doesn't.
29:27
Speaker 1: But it's not one hundred percent the case he said
29:28
Speaker 1: Rose is getting that top four. You heard it there
29:30
Speaker 1: first from my guy. Yo, let's go through building a
29:33
Speaker 1: lineup together. So I want to show you guys this
29:34
Speaker 1: in actual practicality. But building lineups this week is a
29:37
Speaker 1: little bit more complicated than most A lot of that
29:40
Speaker 1: because of how condensed the ownership is, but also because
29:43
Speaker 1: you have to leave salary on the table to really
29:45
Speaker 1: have any chance of not duplicating yourself. So what I
29:48
Speaker 1: did in my set of one hundred and fifty lineups
29:50
Speaker 1: is I set a cap at forty nine five hundred dollars.
29:53
Speaker 1: I'm not spending within five hundred dollars of the max.
29:56
Speaker 1: And part of the reason for that is that even
29:58
Speaker 1: if I tried to force in like a product ownership cap,
30:01
Speaker 1: there's no possible way for me to build lineups under
30:04
Speaker 1: my product ownership cap. The way that I do it,
30:06
Speaker 1: and I'm playing in a contest with over forty thousand
30:09
Speaker 1: entries this week for my one fifty max exposure is
30:12
Speaker 1: the way that I normally do it is I want
30:13
Speaker 1: my product ownership to be less than one over the
30:16
Speaker 1: total amount of entries, so I do one over in
30:19
Speaker 1: this case, like forty thousand, I do the exact amount
30:21
Speaker 1: of entries, but we'll do the mental math there, and
30:24
Speaker 1: then that's my product ownership cap. There is quite literally
30:27
Speaker 1: zero combinations, and not exaggerating, there's not one combination. I
30:31
Speaker 1: could use the six lowest zoned players on the slate
30:33
Speaker 1: and they are not below that product ownership cap. So
30:36
Speaker 1: my strategy for getting differentiation and making sure that I'm
30:39
Speaker 1: not going to have the same exact combination as somebody
30:42
Speaker 1: else just doesn't work on a week like this, So
30:44
Speaker 1: I have to adapt. I have to get a little
30:46
Speaker 1: bit different And I think for some people that might
30:47
Speaker 1: be a little bit overwhelming. You know, they get comfortable
30:50
Speaker 1: with what they do every single week and they don't
30:52
Speaker 1: really want to change it up all that much. And
30:54
Speaker 1: I get that that's kind of a natural human instinct
30:57
Speaker 1: whenever you have this sort of change. But it's not
30:59
Speaker 1: that different to account for. And I'll give you guys
31:02
Speaker 1: a little bit of advice right here. If you leave
31:03
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars on the table with all of your
31:05
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty max lineups, it does not mean
31:07
Speaker 1: that you're not going to duplicate yourself with any of them,
31:09
Speaker 1: but it does give you a better chance. And what
31:12
Speaker 1: you do is you set maybe that owner that salary cap,
31:15
Speaker 1: which could be forty nine to five. You could bump
31:17
Speaker 1: it up two hundred dollars, subtract it two hundred dollars
31:20
Speaker 1: if you want to. It doesn't really matter, right. That's
31:21
Speaker 1: kind of arbitrary where you set that sort of number,
31:24
Speaker 1: but then you set a product ownership cap, but you
31:27
Speaker 1: don't make it as stringent as what it was before.
31:29
Speaker 1: So you don't want to have a whole bunch of
31:31
Speaker 1: lineups that's just playing all the six chalkiest guys together.
31:33
Speaker 1: You want to set a product ownership cap that eliminates
31:36
Speaker 1: those sort of builds but actually allows you to build
31:39
Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty lineups. So it took me a
31:41
Speaker 1: lot of tinkering. I had to mess around with that,
31:44
Speaker 1: probably like fifty times before I actually got my optimizer
31:47
Speaker 1: to run one hundred and fifty lineups. Because you know,
31:49
Speaker 1: I'm being very specific about what I want, right, I
31:52
Speaker 1: want lineups that you know, are still legit lineups that
31:55
Speaker 1: I can actually enter, but that aren't going to be
31:58
Speaker 1: the chalk of the chalk. So a lot of times
32:00
Speaker 1: it's a lot easier for me to go out there
32:02
Speaker 1: and accomplish that sort of thing. This week, it took
32:05
Speaker 1: a little bit of anangling for me to be able
32:06
Speaker 1: to get that job done. So let me kind of
32:08
Speaker 1: show you what, guys, what that would look like. If
32:10
Speaker 1: you're building by hand, it's not quite as difficult, though
32:13
Speaker 1: it is going to be harder to get a gauge
32:14
Speaker 1: on whether you have enough leverage in your lineup, though,
32:17
Speaker 1: So let's start and let's avoid Scotty in this lineup,
32:20
Speaker 1: because I think if you avoid Scotty that you get
32:22
Speaker 1: a slightly more interesting lineup construction. If you use a
32:25
Speaker 1: Scotti shuffler right off the bat, that puts you down
32:27
Speaker 1: to seventy two hundred dollars, which means that you're just
32:30
Speaker 1: going to be hammering that six and seven K range.
32:32
Speaker 1: And you know, if we're leaving salary on the table,
32:34
Speaker 1: that really means that we're going to be living in
32:35
Speaker 1: that six K range for probably four of those last
32:39
Speaker 1: five spots. So I don't know, it's just it feels
32:41
Speaker 1: like that's going to be a very like flat lineup construction.
32:44
Speaker 1: It's not going to be as much that you can
32:46
Speaker 1: really do with it. However, if you go down to
32:48
Speaker 1: let's say, starting with a Fleetwood instead another one of
32:51
Speaker 1: my core plays, let's go with Victor Hovland as our
32:55
Speaker 1: second man in that's still in a JJ Spahn, who
32:57
Speaker 1: I mentioned as a play that I thought can make
32:59
Speaker 1: some sense. In this case. We've already got three players
33:02
Speaker 1: on there, three solid guys that are the top ten
33:05
Speaker 1: of the outright betting odds, and we still have seventy
33:07
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars remaining, which means we can still use
33:11
Speaker 1: another eight K guy if we went to we can
33:13
Speaker 1: even take another spend up in the lower end of
33:15
Speaker 1: the nine K range and probably make it work and
33:17
Speaker 1: still leave salary on the table and not only be
33:20
Speaker 1: taking six K guys Like It's just it gives you
33:22
Speaker 1: so much more flexibility to work with your pieces here.
33:25
Speaker 1: So let's throw in a JT. Let's be really aggressive
33:28
Speaker 1: with our salary. Let's throw in a Brian Harmon at
33:31
Speaker 1: sixty five hundred dollars as well. And because this is
33:34
Speaker 1: us building for like the Big five or twenty five
33:36
Speaker 1: dollars GVP, but seven grand remaining in terms of salary.
33:40
Speaker 1: Because of how I'm building in my one fifty max,
33:42
Speaker 1: I won't be using anyone from sixty six hundred dollars
33:44
Speaker 1: and above. I'm going to be limited to these bottom
33:47
Speaker 1: five players to ensure that I'm not going to have
33:49
Speaker 1: the exact same combination as other people. And yeah, I
33:53
Speaker 1: mean that's really the main reason for it, I guess
33:55
Speaker 1: as they give of something else to add there, but
33:56
Speaker 1: that there's not really anything on top of that that
33:58
Speaker 1: really matters. Muplicating yourself is the worst thing you can
34:01
Speaker 1: do with those large field GPPs. And it's not just
34:03
Speaker 1: the facts that you're dealing with leverage problems, but it's
34:06
Speaker 1: also because they're so top heavy with the payouts. First
34:09
Speaker 1: place gets such a big portion of the payouts in
34:11
Speaker 1: these contests that if you're duplicating yourself, it's just tanking
34:15
Speaker 1: your long term ROI. So that's why we're so focused
34:18
Speaker 1: on the aspect of really getting that differentiation. And I
34:20
Speaker 1: do have to say that avoiding the Scotti shuffler gives
34:23
Speaker 1: us more access to the eight and nine K range,
34:26
Speaker 1: which is also why I think the ownership is in
34:28
Speaker 1: check over there. And I know we were showing the
34:29
Speaker 1: ownership before, but there we had guys in that range
34:32
Speaker 1: that were fifteen to sixteen percent owns and players in
34:34
Speaker 1: the six K range that are going to be over
34:36
Speaker 1: twenty percent. Like that's just such a backward slate from
34:39
Speaker 1: what we're used to. And a lot of that comes
34:41
Speaker 1: down to Scotty. Right, if you're going to use Scotty,
34:43
Speaker 1: you have to play the six K range. And I mean,
34:45
Speaker 1: just to show you that, let's throw in Scottia then
34:47
Speaker 1: a Spawn as our second man in. He would be
34:49
Speaker 1: a pretty aggressive second man in at that point. Now
34:52
Speaker 1: we have seven grand remaining for our last four players.
34:54
Speaker 1: We have to live at the bottom end of the board.
34:56
Speaker 1: And because so many people want to use the Scotti
34:59
Speaker 1: Shuffler this weeking and it's for good reason. These by
35:01
Speaker 1: far the best player that we have in the world
35:02
Speaker 1: that is irrefutable at the stage because everyone wants to
35:06
Speaker 1: use the world's best player. All of these guys are
35:09
Speaker 1: like double the ownership of what they otherwise would be.
35:11
Speaker 1: So I would say it's a lot of really bad,
35:13
Speaker 1: nasty plays, guys that shouldn't be as highly owned as
35:16
Speaker 1: they should be towards the bottom, which is why as
35:18
Speaker 1: the week has gone on, I've gone even more entranced
35:22
Speaker 1: or even more attracted to some of these lineups, starting
35:24
Speaker 1: with the nine K players. And it's not just a
35:26
Speaker 1: Fleetwood that I'll be doing it with, but like your Henley's,
35:28
Speaker 1: your Hoblins, you're justin Thomas's. I love all four of
35:32
Speaker 1: these players this week, so that's going to be where
35:34
Speaker 1: a lot of my exposure is going. And with my
35:36
Speaker 1: Scottish Shuffler lineups, It adds a little bit of hassle, right,
35:39
Speaker 1: because the ownership is so spread out. It's not like
35:42
Speaker 1: going with the studs and duds approach, which for the
35:44
Speaker 1: first leg of the playoffs when we had seventy players,
35:46
Speaker 1: I mentioned that if you use a Scottis shuffler, it
35:48
Speaker 1: forced you towards the bottom end of the board, which
35:50
Speaker 1: kind of helped out with the ownership angle. This time around,
35:53
Speaker 1: that's not the case, right. The ownership is just so
35:55
Speaker 1: condensed down there that you're not getting that differentiation that
35:58
Speaker 1: it takes away some of the utility of youth using
36:00
Speaker 1: as Scotti. So that's the laydown of this week, a
36:02
Speaker 1: little bit of a unique one, if I had to
36:04
Speaker 1: say so myself. But best of luck with everything that
36:07
Speaker 1: you guys are entering this week, whether it's in the
36:08
Speaker 1: largehow GPPs cash lineup, single entries, you name it. I
36:11
Speaker 1: hope you guys are able to take down as many
36:13
Speaker 1: contests as possible stop and buy for the round two
36:15
Speaker 1: through four. Live streams will be doing those after play
36:18
Speaker 1: ends over the next few rounds, giving you guys an
36:20
Speaker 1: idea of how to attack the single game slates. My
36:22
Speaker 1: Patreon page is where you can find all my projections
36:24
Speaker 1: in my player pull for this week. Also for rounds
36:26
Speaker 1: two through four showdown, I post all my stuff over there,
36:29
Speaker 1: and for all the prop embidding stuff arounds one at
36:31
Speaker 1: this events. I'm going to be doing a live stream
36:33
Speaker 1: in about twenty five minutes so at eight pm Eastern
36:35
Speaker 1: time on my YouTube channel. I'm going to be going
36:37
Speaker 1: through the pick them stuff on underdog and prize picks,
36:40
Speaker 1: giving guys an idea of exactly how East Lake Golf
36:42
Speaker 1: Club's going to play. We'll talk through weather pin locations,
36:44
Speaker 1: maybe even some euro golf props as well. O' at
36:47
Speaker 1: least take a look at the board and go through
36:49
Speaker 1: any questions that you have over there to give you
36:51
Speaker 1: guys the lowdown for Thursday's golf action. And last week
36:54
Speaker 1: on the prop side of things was an absolute banger.
36:56
Speaker 1: I believe it was like a plus sixteen unit week
36:59
Speaker 1: or something like that. I'd have to go back and
37:01
Speaker 1: get count. I know it was over a twelve plus
37:03
Speaker 1: unit week in terms of profit, right I'm not talking
37:05
Speaker 1: about just cash is that's a pure profit in terms
37:08
Speaker 1: of that right there. So Ryan HoTT hopefully can keep
37:10
Speaker 1: that momentum going into this event and maybe make it
37:13
Speaker 1: an even better DFS week last week, four of my
37:16
Speaker 1: core plays went T seven or better. I had MacIntyre
37:19
Speaker 1: to win, so that was a little heartbreaking with Scottie
37:21
Speaker 1: ripping my heart out right there, but I took down
37:23
Speaker 1: a few GPPs because of it, so I can't really
37:25
Speaker 1: complain all that much. It would have been nice to
37:28
Speaker 1: had an outright bet on top of that, but we've
37:30
Speaker 1: got momentum across the board, so let's see if we
37:32
Speaker 1: can continue that into this golf tournament, cap off the
37:35
Speaker 1: season with a little bit of a bang, and I
37:36
Speaker 1: see guys for some of that content throughout the rest
37:38
Speaker 1: of the week.