Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 547 - 7/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 547 - 7/10/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 All systems Go with Josh Applebaum starts now.
• 0:13
  Hello and welcome to. Episode 547.
• 0:18
  Of the all systems go sports betting podcast powered by
• 0:22
  rhythm I am your. Host Josh.
• 0:25
  Applebaum What's going on, everyone?
• 0:32
  Happy fade the public. Friday.
• 0:34
  That's right, our work week has come to an end in the MLB. 1st.
• 0:38
  Half has almost come to an end because we are right here up
• 0:41
  against the All Star Break guys, we only got 3 days left.
• 0:44
  We got to make the most of it. We got today, we got Saturday,
• 0:47
  we got Sunday and then the All Star Break is here.
• 0:50
  So Monday is the Home Run Derby, Tuesday is the All Star game and
• 0:53
  then I don't know what we're going to do with it with
• 0:54
  ourselves on Wednesday and Thursday because there's there's
• 0:57
  no games pretty much at all. But then we do have baseball
• 1:00
  coming back a week from today. So again, we love grinding.
• 1:04
  Baseball every day it's. Become a ritual.
• 1:06
  It's a it's a routine. I love waking up and trying to
• 1:09
  pick out three winners from, you know, a slate of 15 games.
• 1:12
  I just love the routine of it, the challenge of it.
• 1:16
  But again, you. Get to the all.
• 1:17
  Star break. Sometimes it's good.
• 1:18
  To take a step. Back, you know, maybe spend some
• 1:21
  time with the family or the loved ones who we've neglected.
• 1:24
  Throughout the first half of the year.
• 1:26
  And just. Recharge our batteries.
• 1:28
  Get ready for the second-half and really get ready for the NFL
• 1:30
  and college football, which is crazy.
• 1:32
  It's only about a month, month and a half away.
• 1:35
  But with that being said, guys going to waste no more time
• 1:37
  because we're going to get right back to it.
• 1:39
  It's a big Friday night. We have 15 games to choose from
• 1:43
  and I did find 3. Count them three MLB best bets
• 1:46
  here to get down on. Two very short favorites.
• 1:49
  And one very short dog. So we're going to see if a dog
• 1:52
  can bark. We're going to see if a couple
• 1:53
  favorites can come through for us.
• 1:55
  As always guys, a three pack. Let's try to go 2 and 1 eke out
• 1:58
  a winning day now why do I always mention you know
• 2:01
  realistic expectations 3 picks. Let's try to go 2 and one
• 2:05
  because you realize that you're up against a very difficult
• 2:07
  market that's hard to win at consistently.
• 2:09
  We got to overcome the juice overcome bad beats beat the
• 2:13
  razor sharp lines. You guys know the drill Sports
• 2:16
  betting was easy. We'd all quit our day jobs and
• 2:18
  make millions of dollars is better, but we know it's hard
• 2:20
  but we embrace the challenge, but I always.
• 2:23
  Try to stress that hey, we got a three pack, let's try to eek
• 2:25
  out. Scratch and claw get a two in
• 2:27
  one because sometimes you go 3 and O and it makes you that much
• 2:32
  happier. It gives you more confidence.
• 2:34
  It makes those three and OS much sweeter.
• 2:36
  I see all the time and I think it's I don't get why people do
• 2:39
  this think these are just younger betters in their, you
• 2:41
  know, early 20s, but they're like, let's go 6 and O today,
• 2:44
  let's crush the books. And it's like, really?
• 2:46
  You really think it's that easy? Also, you're only setting
• 2:49
  yourself up for disappointment or failure because if you expect
• 2:53
  to go 6 and O3 and O every night, it's not going to happen.
• 2:56
  The betting market. Is way too hard, but if we have.
• 2:58
  Realistic expectations. We grind.
• 3:01
  We try to. Squeak out as many winning days
• 3:03
  as we can. When we go 3 and O it makes it
• 3:05
  that much sweeter. And that's exactly what we did
• 3:08
  last night. Third straight winning day three
• 3:10
  and O + 2.65 units. Had a great hit with the
• 3:14
  Orioles. Earlier in the day, and again,
• 3:17
  that was a game that I was kind of a, you know, just, you know,
• 3:19
  back and forth. Frustrated on because I saw the
• 3:22
  sharp. Move and I'm like man.
• 3:23
  Orioles are sharp today. But then I'm like, oh, Orioles,
• 3:25
  they're not very good. And wouldn't you know it?
• 3:28
  You know, I was out there to do some errands, but when I left
• 3:30
  the house, they're up 1. Nothing.
• 3:32
  I'm like, OK, maybe they're good.
• 3:33
  Maybe they'll win for us. Then as I'm doing my errands,
• 3:36
  I'm out and about doing a bunch of stuff.
• 3:38
  When I get home, they're down 2 to one in the eighth inning and
• 3:42
  I'm like, Jesus Christ, really? They're going to lose this one
• 3:44
  two to one, of course. Why did I Why did I take the
• 3:47
  Orioles? But then something incredible
• 3:50
  happened. Couple guys on, pinch hitter
• 3:52
  Jeremiah Jackson ropes a double in the right center field gap.
• 3:56
  They score two runs, they hang on in the bottom of the ninth or
• 4:00
  the top of the ninth, and they end of the game with a line
• 4:03
  drive to left. Made me scared by Conforto.
• 4:05
  I thought it might drop because they had a tying run on but the
• 4:08
  end of the game right before it opened up and started pouring.
• 4:11
  So shout out to the O's. Not a very good team.
• 4:13
  But that's the beauty of. Of being a data-driven Better
• 4:16
  you go where the sharp money leads you and the O's came
• 4:18
  through. Then we got the Marlins 8 to. 4.
• 4:21
  Marlins bats went nuts. Marlins were a dog.
• 4:24
  Remember, the Marlins has a dog. They had that line move in their
• 4:26
  favor. It was nice to catch a + 112 +
• 4:29
  110 Marlins break up the Marlins, man.
• 4:32
  They're they're good right now. And then winner.
• 4:34
  With the Brewers. Late night, 8 to 4.
• 4:37
  I turned that game on and they were up to up 6 to 1.
• 4:40
  Walker, at a Homer, made it 6:00 to 4:00.
• 4:42
  But they tacked on a couple runs and we were able to hang on
• 4:45
  eight to four. So Orioles.
• 4:47
  Marlins. Brewers nice little.
• 4:48
  Three and O you'll love it when you get a sweep plus 2.65 units
• 4:52
  so our challenge today guys, when you have a bunch of winning
• 4:55
  days in a row, the challenge is to produce another winning day
• 4:57
  when you have a bunch of losing days in a row your challenge is
• 5:00
  to get back in the green so. Regardless, this is the.
• 5:03
  Challenge that we embrace, but hopefully we can finish off the
• 5:06
  week on a hot note as we steam into All Star Break weekend.
• 5:10
  Well, that being said. Three pack overall.
• 5:12
  I'm excited to get right back in the arena with you guys, see if
• 5:15
  we can get a couple winners here for today.
• 5:18
  So first one on the board, let's look at a 6:40 PM Eastern Time
• 5:22
  first pitch between the Milwaukee.
• 5:24
  Brewers, we just. Mentioned in the Pittsburgh
• 5:27
  Pirates. Now let's talk line move split.
• 5:29
  System matches and. I'll give you my play for this
• 5:31
  one. So the Brewers come in 59 and
• 5:35
  34, one of the best teams in baseball, I think second best
• 5:37
  record behind the Dodgers. Doing it again with a small
• 5:40
  payroll. Unbelievable.
• 5:41
  They just took. Four or five big 5 game series
• 5:44
  against the cards came through for us yesterday in the series
• 5:47
  finale 8 to 4 as a -. 125 road favorite.
• 5:50
  On the other hand, the Pirates are 47 and 47500 team just
• 5:55
  dropped two or three against the.
• 5:56
  Braves. They lost yesterday's.
• 5:58
  Series finale, 4:50 as a -. 110 Home pick and play now in
• 6:03
  tonight's series opener, the Brewers are going to go with the
• 6:05
  ready Brandon Sprout. He's three and four with a 5.13
• 6:09
  ER a Meanwhile, the Pirates are going to counter with the fellow
• 6:11
  ready Braxton Ashcraft. He's nine and three with a 3.2
• 6:15
  for. ER, a SO.
• 6:17
  What have you seen across the market here?
• 6:19
  Well, this game open Pittsburgh around a -, 135 home favorite
• 6:22
  Milwaukee A + 115 road dog, and the public pretty much split
• 6:27
  down the middle. They don't know what to do.
• 6:28
  Ashcraft's got a good record ERA, you know, Buckos.
• 6:31
  Are at home, it's a. Relatively short price.
• 6:33
  But also, Milwaukee's getting plus money.
• 6:35
  They're a pretty good team. So if you'll get.
• 6:37
  DraftKings right down the middle. 5050 ticket split.
• 6:41
  Half the tickets on Milwaukee, plus money.
• 6:43
  Half the tickets on Pittsburgh laying the short chalk number.
• 6:46
  What do we always talk about 5050 theoretically?
• 6:50
  A line shouldn't move at all because the odds makers have
• 6:52
  balanced action. They set a perfect number.
• 6:54
  There's no need for them to bring the number up or down
• 6:57
  because they're getting equal action on both sides.
• 6:59
  But sometimes you get a 5050 ticket split and yet you see a
• 7:02
  line. Now that's meaningful because
• 7:05
  even though the bets are even in the public's undecided, smart
• 7:09
  money might have taken a position and caused the line
• 7:11
  move. That's what we're seeing here.
• 7:13
  5050 Get the. Lines going toward the beer
• 7:15
  makers because Pittsburgh has fallen -135 down to -125.
• 7:21
  Brewers, meanwhile, have fallen from plus 115 down to plus one O
• 7:25
  5. So that tells me.
• 7:26
  We got a sharp. 5050 line Move on the beer makers.
• 7:29
  I like the Brewers here today. Guys, I'm taking a shot on the
• 7:32
  Brewers at some plus money. Now we look at the splits.
• 7:35
  DK only 50% money line. Bets but 67.
• 7:39
  Percent money line dollars are on Milwaukee.
• 7:41
  So good low bets, higher dollar split.
• 7:44
  Basically only half the tickets, but you know, two out of. $3.
• 7:48
  Smart money there on Milwaukee. Over at circa over. 90% of
• 7:53
  money, line bets and dollars are on Milwaukee.
• 7:55
  So it tells us we got. A lot of big money out in Vegas
• 7:57
  also going with the beer makers which coincides with the line
• 8:00
  move toward Milwaukee. Then we get a system match.
• 8:03
  First off, divisional dog. Divisional dogs tend to bark
• 8:06
  louder because of the built in familiarity levels.
• 8:09
  The playing field benefits the team getting plus money.
• 8:11
  You see more upsets and divisional games than non
• 8:13
  division and one system match in particular is.
• 8:16
  If you are a. Road divisional dog off a win
• 8:20
  and you're getting line movement in your favor.
• 8:21
  That would match with Milwaukee. Those teams are 20 and 1951%.
• 8:27
  But if you're 51% on a money line, dog plus money system.
• 8:30
  That's pretty good. That's.
• 8:31
  A 10% ROI system. Milwaukee is 8 and three in
• 8:35
  Sprouts last 11 starts and he's pitched, knock on wood, very
• 8:39
  well recently. He's got a 1.79 ERA.
• 8:42
  In his last three starts. He's only given up 3 earned runs
• 8:45
  and 15.1 innings pitched. Brewers, meanwhile, they're
• 8:49
  great on the road. 30 and 16 on the road.
• 8:51
  That's the best Rd. record in baseball.
• 8:53
  Meanwhile, Pittsburgh, they're only 24 and 24 at home, but
• 8:57
  they're also only 13 and 15 as a home favorite.
• 9:00
  So when they're at home and expected to win.
• 9:03
  They're actually below water below 500.
• 9:05
  That's the seventh worst home chalk record in baseball, so
• 9:10
  we're seeing a big amount of line movement here toward
• 9:12
  Milwaukee. And it also doesn't hurt that I.
• 9:15
  Popped open rhythm. And noticed 2.
• 9:18
  Rhythm recommendations? Both lighting up in favor of the
• 9:22
  beer makers. So shop around guys.
• 9:24
  I was able to get the Brewers plus one O 6 at FanDuel.
• 9:27
  Again, a lot of books down to plus one O 5 even.
• 9:30
  Inching a little bit down to like.
• 9:31
  Plus one O 4. Closer to even money, but.
• 9:34
  See if the beer makers who are great.
• 9:36
  On the road. And have a good system match and
• 9:38
  good. Splits can come through for us.
• 9:40
  I'm on the. Brewers plus One O 6 now next.
• 9:43
  Bit on the board. Let's look at a match up here.
• 9:45
  7:10 PM Eastern. Time first pitch between the
• 9:48
  Seattle Mariners. And the Tampa Bay Rays, now the
• 9:52
  Mariners come in 47 and 47 on the year, another 500 team like
• 9:56
  the Buckos, and they just got swept by the Marlins.
• 9:59
  That's fine with us, because the Mariners lost. 8:00 to 4:00
• 10:03
  last. Night as a -. 130 road favorite,
• 10:05
  got a big win there with Miami as a plus money dog.
• 10:08
  Meanwhile, the Rays, 54 and 37 on the year, a great record,
• 10:12
  just took two or three against the Yankees but could not
• 10:14
  complete the sweep. They got rolled 12 to 4
• 10:17
  yesterday as a -, 145 home favorite.
• 10:20
  So in tonight's series opener, the Mariners are going with the
• 10:23
  ready Luis Castillo. He's three and seven with a 4.79
• 10:27
  ERA. Rays, meanwhile, are going to go
• 10:29
  with the righty Nick Martinez. He's seven and two with a 2.61
• 10:33
  ERA. Now, what have we seen across
• 10:35
  the board here? This game opened at basically a
• 10:38
  pick em around -110 odds on both sides.
• 10:41
  And we always talk about, we just mentioned the 5050 line
• 10:44
  move tickets are even, but the line goes in One Direction.
• 10:46
  I want to typically be with that line move when a game opens at a
• 10:50
  pick em. Think of it this way.
• 10:51
  There are a lot of wise guys, wise gals, sharp pro batters out
• 10:54
  there who set their own numbers. And if they have the game around
• 10:58
  to pick em as well, they're really not going to bet it
• 11:00
  because there's no edge either way.
• 11:01
  But they might have one team -115 -, 120.
• 11:05
  So if they open at a pick, they're going to hit it, move
• 11:08
  that number. And that's what we've seen here
• 11:09
  because even though we have a pick em opener, we've seen the
• 11:12
  line creep up toward Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay has gone from -110 to
• 11:16
  around -115 and I'm seeing couple shops inching toward -120
• 11:21
  So it's clearly a line move in favor of Tampa.
• 11:23
  We've never seen this go -115 -, 120 towards Seattle.
• 11:28
  Now let's go over to DK at DraftKings. 75% of money line
• 11:32
  bets, but 97% of money line dollars are on the Rays tells us
• 11:37
  a big preponderance of low bets, higher dollars sharp action also
• 11:41
  going with Tampa, which coincides with that line move.
• 11:44
  Then we get into our system matches.
• 11:46
  So just generally speaking, Tampa Bay non division favorite,
• 11:49
  lack of familiarity typically benefiting quote UN quote the
• 11:52
  better team. Tampa also has some correlative
• 11:54
  betting value. This totals around 8.
• 11:57
  Some shops are even like 7 1/2 just a little over and fair
• 12:00
  amount of expected run scored. Also more likely to come from
• 12:03
  quote UN quote that better team. But in particular if you're a
• 12:06
  Friday home favorite -150 or less and you missed the playoffs
• 12:11
  the previous year, kind of a buy low system play.
• 12:13
  You think, oh, they missed the playoffs are not that good, but
• 12:16
  the situation's been really good.
• 12:17
  Buying low on teams that fit this criteria like the Rays
• 12:21
  here. Those teams are 32 and 1667%
• 12:25
  Nineteen percent ROI this year. The Rays also have the better
• 12:29
  bats. They're hitting 259 as a team,
• 12:31
  334 on base, 410 runs scored. Mariners only hitting 2:30 as a
• 12:37
  team, 311 on base, 381 run scored.
• 12:40
  So hopefully the bats of Tampa can get to Castillo.
• 12:44
  Tampa Bay is 13 and four and Nick Martinez's 17 starts this
• 12:48
  year, so they've played well behind him.
• 12:50
  Hopefully they can do that again tonight.
• 12:52
  He's five and one with a three-point O 4.
• 12:54
  ERA at home. And he's five and one with a
• 12:56
  2.38 ERA in night game. So he's been good at home, good
• 13:00
  at night. He's at home tonight.
• 13:03
  On the other hand, Castillo, I've been a fan of Castillo over
• 13:05
  the years, but he's had a rough season.
• 13:07
  Tampa Bay or sorry, Seattle is just six and 11 and his 17
• 13:11
  starts this year and in night games he's one in five with a
• 13:15
  5.29 ERA. Generally speaking, Ray's good
• 13:19
  team at night, 34 and 20 at night, Mariners 28 and 32 at
• 13:23
  night, a losing record. Then also Tampa Bay, we just
• 13:26
  talked about Milwaukee being a great Rd. team.
• 13:28
  Tampa is a really good home team.
• 13:30
  Tampa is 33 and 14 at home and they're 24 and 8 as a home
• 13:34
  favorite. Both of those are the best
• 13:37
  records in baseball. Meanwhile, Mariners 20 and 27 on
• 13:40
  the road, a losing record. So open at a pick em.
• 13:43
  The lines crept up toward Tampa. We got some good splits, good
• 13:46
  system matches, Hopefully Martinez greater than Castillo.
• 13:51
  And then, oh, by the way, popped open rhythm and noticed one
• 13:55
  rhythm recommendation lighting up in favor of Tampa Bay.
• 13:59
  So shop around here, guys. I'm seeing the raise as high as
• 14:01
  -118 -, 120 I got Tampa Bay -115 at Caesars last bed of the
• 14:08
  night. Let's stay in the great state of
• 14:10
  Florida. Let's go down to Miami where the
• 14:12
  Miami Marlins are hosting the Cleveland Guardians 7:10 PM
• 14:16
  Eastern Time, first pitch. Now, the guards come in 48 and
• 14:20
  46 on the year, but they did just drop two of three against
• 14:23
  the Twins avoided the sweep. However, they won yesterday's
• 14:26
  series finale 5 to 2 as a -110 road favorite.
• 14:30
  Meanwhile, the Marlins 52 and 42 just swept.
• 14:33
  The Mariners, as we mentioned, came through for us Bigley last
• 14:36
  night, 8 to 4 winners as a + 110 home dog.
• 14:39
  So in tonight's interleague series opener, the Guardians are
• 14:42
  starting the lefty Parker Messick.
• 14:44
  He is 7 and five with a 2.8 ERA. Meanwhile, the Marlins are going
• 14:49
  with the ready ace Sandy Alcantara, 10 and four ERA of
• 14:53
  four. What have you seen across the
• 14:55
  market? I think if you like Tampa, you
• 14:58
  like Miami. Very similar situation.
• 15:00
  This game opened at roughly a pick.
• 15:02
  Em both sides around. -110 odds and you'll see nothing but
• 15:05
  movement in favor of the fish. The fish have got gotten bet up
• 15:09
  -110 up to -120 so about $0.10 of movement in their favor.
• 15:14
  We have some really good splits on Miami, 72% of bets, 75% of
• 15:19
  money line dollars at DK and then over at circa 86% of money
• 15:24
  line bets, 97% of money line dollars.
• 15:27
  So low bets higher dollars at both DK and Circo, but
• 15:30
  especially the sharps and Circo. You look at some system matches
• 15:34
  here. So generally speaking, just
• 15:35
  interleague favorite, lack of familiarity benefiting quote UN
• 15:38
  quote the better team. You also have a favorite low
• 15:40
  total correlative betting play totals around 7 1/2 or even 7,
• 15:44
  so low scoring game. Hopefully those runs come from
• 15:46
  the better team expected to win, which would be Miami based on
• 15:49
  that minus number. In front of their.
• 15:51
  Odds when my favorite system matches, we've talked about this
• 15:54
  quite a bit. Knock on wood, when both teams
• 15:56
  are above 500, just take the team receiving line movement in
• 16:00
  their favor. In this case, it would be Miami.
• 16:02
  Those teams are 129 and 7862 percent, 13% ROI this year.
• 16:09
  System match that we just talked about with Tampa.
• 16:11
  Also matches with Miami Friday. Home favorites -150 or less.
• 16:15
  Missed the postseason the previous year. 32 and 1667%.
• 16:20
  Nineteen percent ROI this year. Miami also has the better bats.
• 16:25
  We saw him last night get hot for US, winning 8 to 4.
• 16:27
  Poured on a bunch of runs. Let's hope, hope they can do it
• 16:30
  again tonight. But Miami as a team is hitting
• 16:32
  255. They've scored 434 runs.
• 16:36
  Guardians are only hitting 228. They've only scored 373 runs in
• 16:41
  particular. Miami Rakes at home.
• 16:44
  At home, they're hitting 253. That's the 9th best batting
• 16:47
  average for a home team. Cleveland, meanwhile, hitting
• 16:51
  216 on the road that is dead last in Major League Baseball.
• 16:55
  Messick, his numbers are pretty good, but Cleveland and his last
• 16:58
  seven starts is just one and six.
• 17:00
  And Miami? Is a great home.
• 17:02
  Team They are 31 and 17 at home. They are 19 and 7 as a home
• 17:07
  favorite. Both of those numbers or records
• 17:10
  are the third best in baseball. So similar to the Rays, Marlins
• 17:14
  were a pick em that got bet up a little bit to a short favorite.
• 17:18
  Good split system matches, great team at home.
• 17:20
  I'm going to ride the Marlins once again.
• 17:23
  Also noticed one rhythm recommendation lighting up in
• 17:26
  favor of Miami. So the AI models with us there
• 17:28
  as. Well, but.
• 17:29
  I was able to get Miami -120 at Bally Bet and Bally Bet gave me
• 17:34
  an odds boost. So I got the Marlins boosted
• 17:37
  down to -1 O 9. And again, some books as high as
• 17:40
  -125 S -120 should be pretty widely available.
• 17:44
  But again, keep an eye out for the books and which ones are
• 17:47
  providing you an odds boost. So Brewers as a dog, Ray's and
• 17:52
  Marlins as short favorites. Let's try to get 2 out of three
• 17:55
  continue our winning ways. So that about does it for
• 17:58
  episode 547 of the All Systems Go sports Betting podcast
• 18:02
  powered by Rhythm. This is the part of the pod
• 18:04
  where we wrap things up. And I always start first by
• 18:07
  saying thank you. Thank you for listening, thank
• 18:10
  you for tuning in, Thank you for taking the time out of your busy
• 18:13
  day, your busy lives. And you guys got a lot going on.
• 18:16
  But I see the stats, I have my my podcast for creators page.
• 18:20
  I can see the the downloads, the listens, and you guys should
• 18:23
  keep showing up every day. That's a testament to our style,
• 18:26
  our approach, and hopefully the community we've created here.
• 18:29
  But if you enjoy the the insights, you value the pod,
• 18:33
  hopefully it's become a part of your routine.
• 18:34
  Whether you tail every bed or pick and choose or just see
• 18:37
  where we overlap, any of that is fine.
• 18:39
  Heck, if you want to fade them all, that's cool too.
• 18:41
  Whatever you want. I'd recommend, you know, tailing
• 18:44
  more than fading because I think we're on the sharp side here
• 18:47
  most of the time. But anyway, if you want to help
• 18:49
  me grow this podcast, there are some basic simple things you.
• 18:52
  Could do you could. Very easily.
• 18:54
  Just give this podcast a five star review if you're listening
• 18:57
  on Spotify or iTunes, recommend the pod to a friend.
• 19:01
  You could also just retweet or like the pod when I put it out
• 19:04
  on Twitter each day. Any or all those things would be
• 19:07
  very much appreciated. Next, if you enjoy the style of
• 19:11
  sports betting and you want to learn more about data-driven
• 19:14
  betting, I would love. For you to buy.
• 19:16
  One of my books and get them off of Amazon.
• 19:18
  Just go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL Sharp Betting Playbook
• 19:22
  or the Everything Guide to Sports betting.
• 19:24
  Grab one or both of my books. They make a great a gift,
• 19:28
  somebody's birthday, whatever the case may be, stocking
• 19:30
  stuffers. The holidays are a ways away.
• 19:32
  If you don't need a you don't need a holiday or reason to buy
• 19:34
  the book. In particular, you want to learn
• 19:36
  more about data-driven betting. Or maybe you have someone in
• 19:38
  your life who could use some data-driven tips.
• 19:41
  They might be benefiting from being introduced to the
• 19:44
  data-driven style. Again, you can pick up the
• 19:47
  everything guide to sports betting or the NFL sharp betting
• 19:49
  playbook. You'd make my day.
• 19:51
  You get some knowledge on your end and you bring them a sports
• 19:53
  book. I'll sign them for you.
• 19:54
  I'll buy you a beer or ginger ale.
• 19:56
  Sweat some games together next. Have you downloaded Rhythm and
• 20:00
  Juice Reel yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 20:02
  apps. Rhythm is fantastic for their AI
• 20:04
  backed models and predictions for game bets and player props.
• 20:08
  Juice reel so many great features.
• 20:09
  You can sync up your sports books, get a running report card
• 20:12
  of your action robo Jackson best bet picks sharp mush indicators.
• 20:16
  The arbitrage plays the shop for the best line futures and then
• 20:19
  if you also want to support the pod or tip your podcast toes.
• 20:24
  You go out to dinner, server takes care of you.
• 20:26
  Every time your water glass gets low, they refill it for you.
• 20:29
  Don't even have to ask. Well if you enjoy the pod, tip
• 20:31
  your podcast house, especially if you had a a good sweep last
• 20:34
  night. Sign up for a week or more of
• 20:36
  the best bet picks exclusively on Juice Rail.
• 20:39
  As soon as I make a bet, they go right to the ASG podcast page on
• 20:42
  Juice Rail and you can get them immediately as soon as I bet
• 20:45
  them for $9.99 a week or $24.99 for a month.
• 20:52
  So 10 bucks a week, that's $1.42 a day, 25 bucks for a month,
• 20:56
  that's $0.83 a day. And you would be supporting the
• 20:59
  pod, making your podcast host happy.
• 21:01
  And then also you'd be contributing to my daughter's
• 21:03
  upcoming ridiculously expensive, absurdly expensive childcare
• 21:08
  fund. But seriously, anyone who has
• 21:11
  sign up for the plays, I appreciate you.
• 21:13
  So download Rhythm, download Juice Real, give them both a
• 21:15
  five star review in the App Store.
• 21:18
  Next, do you have a live odds page?
• 21:19
  Well, if you don't have one, you need one.
• 21:21
  I can't stress enough how important a live odds page is.
• 21:24
  You got to be able to track the market.
• 21:26
  The whole point here guys is that we are picking up the
• 21:28
  context clues from what the market is telling us.
• 21:30
  And if you don't have access to reliable market data, you're
• 21:34
  flying blind. You got to be able to know very
• 21:36
  quickly what are all the games being played today, start times,
• 21:39
  live scoring, live in game wagering, all the work you do
• 21:43
  prior to placing your bet, comparing the opening column to
• 21:46
  the current. See which direction the line is
• 21:48
  moving for every game. Pull up the line history, shop
• 21:50
  for the best number, find the best line.
• 21:52
  You can do it all with Odds Logic.
• 21:55
  So I highly recommend trying out Odds Logic.
• 21:57
  I use it every day. It's my favorite live odds page.
• 22:00
  You can give it a shot with this special link, Odds
• 22:03
  logic.com/josh 123. That'll give you a 7 day free
• 22:09
  trial and 50% off your first month of service.
• 22:12
  So that about does it for episode 547 of the ASG pod as.
• 22:17
  Always, guys, two final. Thoughts.
• 22:18
  One, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 22:21
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 22:23
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 22:27
  Boston, Plainridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield, or the Nash in
• 22:31
  my neck of the woods on the border of Massachusetts in New
• 22:33
  Hampshire, around the desert where the true grinders get
• 22:36
  down. Where Billy Walter sends his
• 22:37
  number runners with lowest juice possible is found at the South
• 22:40
  Point. Or sweat and sharp contrarian
• 22:42
  plays jumping in the stadium swim pool when he cashed a big
• 22:45
  ticket at Circa. We're going to see each other
• 22:48
  from across the sports book floor.
• 22:49
  We're going to knock on the janitor's closet, say, hey, mind
• 22:52
  if I borrow the broom real quick?
• 22:53
  We're going to do a little Fred Astaire dance on the sports book
• 22:56
  floor because we had a great sweep last night.
• 22:59
  Show me a Orioles ticket, Marlins ticket.
• 23:02
  Brewers ticket. First one's on me, next one's on
• 23:05
  you. We'll post about the book and
• 23:07
  reinvest carefully and smartly again tonight, putting 1 unit on
• 23:12
  the Brewers, the Rays and the Marlins hopefully produce a
• 23:14
  winning night. So as always, guys coming off a
• 23:17
  three and O or an O and three, A1 and two or a two and one.
• 23:20
  A good night, a bad night, a winning streak, a losing streak.
• 23:23
  We just can't get too high or too low.
• 23:25
  Can't be too high. Thinking it's easy when we're
• 23:27
  winning can't be down in the dumps.
• 23:29
  Thinking it's impossible and we're losing, You just got to
• 23:31
  continue to grind. Stay true to the model.
• 23:33
  Look for games that fit our philosophy, games that are
• 23:36
  against the public, with the house, with the pros.
• 23:39
  Flat bet, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
• 23:42
  If we can do that, we're going to be successful sports betters
• 23:45
  so everyone has a great Friday and even better weekend.
• 23:49
  Reminder, no pods on the weekend, but the next two days
• 23:52
  of baseball. You can get the baseball best
• 23:53
  bets on Juice Reel or you can read the sharp reports that are
• 23:56
  right for visen.com. You can find them on Twitter.
• 23:59
  I tweet them out every early afternoon, late morning at Josh
• 24:04
  under score Insights. I hope you have a great Friday
• 24:06
  and even better weekend, guys. I'll see you back on Monday.
• 24:09
  Who knows, maybe we'll have a best bet on the Home Run Derby,
• 24:12
  but good luck and hopefully we can catch some tickets.
• 24:15
  I'll see you back on Monday for episode 548 of the All Systems
• 24:19
  Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 24:22
  Good luck everybody and have a great weekend.