Latest / Financial Survival Network / Gold, Debt, and Market Survival - David Erfle #6423

Transcript

Gold, Debt, and Market Survival - David Erfle #6423 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: You're listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else. To
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: thrive in today's trying times, you need the Financial Survival
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: Network now more than ever. Go to FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com and get
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: your free newsletter and gift. Financial Survival Network, now more
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: than ever.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: And welcome.
• 0:28
  Speaker 3: You are listening to and watching the Financial Survival Network.
• 0:32
  Speaker 3: I'm your host, Cary Letts. David Erfley is with us now.
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: As you can see from the screen, a junior miner junkie.
• 0:39
  Speaker 3: I got it right that time. It's a little bit
• 0:41
  Speaker 3: of a tongue twister you came up with.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: There, David. I just say JMJ. JMJ.
• 0:48
  Speaker 3: All right. From now on. where today it's September 10th,
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: the day before 9-11, and gold and especially silver are
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: getting hammered. We've got all sorts of bad numbers coming out,
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: and yet somehow the world continues onward, right? Yeah.
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: I mean, with the ECB came out and hiked rates,
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: so your favorite buzzword, algorithm selling. It started to happen.
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, last Friday, we had the same thing because
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: anything rate height sensitive right now is going to get
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: hit with algorithm selling. It happened last Friday with the
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: jobs numbers. But as soon as the algorithm selling was done,
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: we had weakness being bought in the miners right away.
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: I don't see that happening today yet because I think
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: tomorrow everybody's waiting to see what the CPI number is.
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: The PPI number today came in hotter than expected. So
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: that's also helping. push gold and especially silver down. Silver
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: futures are now below 65. And gold is well below 4,500.
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: Those are the two numbers to really watch as far
• 1:56
  Speaker 2: as weekly levels. 70 on the upside for silver and 4,500
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: on the upside for gold. But we're just consolidating, right?
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: I mean, August was an incredible month for gold, but
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: especially the miners, right? Gold went up 10%. But the
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: miners went up over 30%. So that's three times leverage
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: last month. So now that moves being consolidated. I mean,
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: gold stocks are already back to where they were when
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: gold was just below $ 5, 000. So gold is leading. I mean,
• 2:30
  Speaker 2: the miners are leading the metals. Yeah, that's what you
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: want to see. Yeah, that's what you want to see. So,
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: I mean, as far as a downside in the short term,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: I don't see it going any lower than $ 4, 200. Now,
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: it's rate high expectations of 70 percent because of what happened,
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: what was announced today with the ECB and the PPI
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: inflation number. But, you know, as far as the Fed
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: is concerned, they're pretty much their hands are continue to
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: continue to be tied here between a rock and a
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: hard place because they can't. They can't really raise rates
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: because of the really, you know, the terrible debt situation.
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: And now percent is having to come in and try
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: to manipulate the bond market because the central banks are
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: not buying our debt anymore. So it's a real mess.
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: And the gold price has been reacting positively. But like
• 3:22
  Speaker 2: I said, especially the gold stocks, because the gold stocks
• 3:25
  Speaker 2: are now are breaking out against the gold price. You know,
• 3:30
  Speaker 2: for 13 years, they've done this consolidation. And now they're
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: starting to break out again. The gold stocks are starting
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: to break out against gold and also gold against the
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: stock market is gold. Gold miners against the stock market
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: market is starting to look pretty good. I mean, it
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: doesn't take much rotation coming out of AI. These hot
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: AI stocks coming into the miners to really move them.
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: And you're starting to see a little bit of that.
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: If you take a look at. The share price of
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: Newmont and Wheaton Precious Metals, you know, those are two
• 4:02
  Speaker 2: very large liquid companies that generalist investors are aware of. And,
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: you know, Newmont is the only gold stock in the
• 4:08
  Speaker 2: S & P 500. So those stocks have already reached
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: their all-time highs. So you're printing money. Because of some rotation.
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: They're printing money. I remember we looked at the, when
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: we were in Nevada and we saw, you know, The
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: it was then a newer consolidation, the Newmont consolidation there.
• 4:34
  Speaker 3: And man, that that was back then it was like,
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I think, around like twelve hundred or something. And they
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: were still making a ton of money. Now you can
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: only imagine. Right.
• 4:47
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah. I mean, all in sustaining costs now are
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: averaging less than I think they're less than nineteen hundred.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: Right now. And the cold prices, you know, around forty three,
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: forty four hundred dollars an ounce. That's huge margins. These
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: these companies are are are are spewing out now. And,
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: you know, they've they've done they've done the work, you know,
• 5:07
  Speaker 2: from they've learned from their past mistakes, from from from
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: the last bull market where they were buying low grade
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: ounces with their with their paper. And not paying much
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: attention to debt as the debt continued to climb and
• 5:20
  Speaker 2: they weren't paying dividends, they weren't buying back shares. I mean,
• 5:23
  Speaker 2: they were doing the exact wrong thing at the exact
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: wrong time. They were adding uneconomic ounces, paying a premium
• 5:31
  Speaker 2: for them at the top of a gold price cycle. And,
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: you know, and now pretty much they've done the opposite.
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: You know, they're too conservative. Now they need to add
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: ounces because, you know, they've, They've they've they've shorted their
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: balance sheets. You know, they paid off their debt. They're
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: paying decent dividends. They're doing share buybacks. They got all
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: this cash. So they need to start adding ounces. We've
• 5:54
  Speaker 2: seen some M & A, but we really haven't seen
• 5:56
  Speaker 2: it pick up lately again.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, we've got Beaver Creek coming up and we
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: could see something there, huh?
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we usually do. I mean, you see, it starts
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: with Beaver Creek and then it goes into Denver Gold Forum.
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: And that's what all these guys are talking about, right?
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: They're all getting together to say, hey, you know, it
• 6:15
  Speaker 2: makes sense if we merge or make sense if we
• 6:17
  Speaker 2: take this one out. Let's let's do a deal. So
• 6:22
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't be surprised to see something big come out
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: of either Beaver Creek or Denver Gold Forum. And if
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: it's and if it's a big, high profile merger, then
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: you might just might start to see some piggybacking, some
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: other some other takeovers. Because that's that's what we need.
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: We need to get we need to get some M
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: & A going again in this sector. And we need
• 6:39
  Speaker 2: to we also need some major discoveries to get, you know,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: generalists finally excited in this sector because they're really still
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: not in the sector yet. Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's just
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: waiting for that match.
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: Right.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Exactly. Yeah.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's I mean, I mean, Besant did that
• 6:57
  Speaker 2: provided a match, you know, at the beginning of of
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: August when when he. Did the currency intervention into the
• 7:08
  Speaker 2: Japanese yen? Because Japan stopped buying the U.S. debt. So
• 7:13
  Speaker 2: he had to go in and start manipulating that. And
• 7:15
  Speaker 2: as soon as he did that, that's when the gold
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: price broke out above 4,200 and had that huge move.
• 7:20
  Speaker 2: And then on the 19th, when he did the same
• 7:23
  Speaker 2: thing with the U.S. debt- you know, manipulating the U.S. market.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: It just continued. So, you know, the Fed's between a
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: rock and a hard place. The cent is trying to
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: prop up the market. I mean, everything they're trying to do,
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: you know, it's been tried before and it didn't work. And,
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: you know, you've got Trump coming out and saying, hey,
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: if the Republicans win the election, we're going to give
• 7:47
  Speaker 2: every adult $ 5, 000.
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: $ 5, 000.
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: $ 5, 000.
• 7:51
  Speaker 3: Come on.
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: That's literally buying votes, right?
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: I mean, yeah, it doesn't get any more blatant than that.
• 7:58
  Speaker 2: It certainly doesn't.
• 7:59
  Speaker 3: But let me ask you a question, you know, like
• 8:02
  Speaker 3: the Trump accounts for kids. Like, let's just assume that
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: the dollar will not be relegated to the dustbin of history.
• 8:12
  Speaker 3: You know, on the one hand, I can as a libertarian,
• 8:15
  Speaker 3: I'm totally against just printing up money and handing it out.
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: On the other hand, it kind of like it's a
• 8:25
  Speaker 3: real course in financial education where you get a thousand bucks. And,
• 8:31
  Speaker 3: you know, when Junior hits 21, then he has a
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: long weekend in Vegas, right? Yeah.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: I mean, everything they're trying. I mean, this is just,
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: you know, the whole financial system is just a bonsai scheme.
• 8:44
  Speaker 2: And now people are starting to realize that. is the
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: debt has always been a problem, and now it's becoming
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: more into focus. When it hit that $ 40 trillion round number, right?
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: I mean, it got a lot of press. Yeah. You know,
• 8:58
  Speaker 2: I mean, with paying, you know, the interest we're paying
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: is $ 1. 1 trillion a year now, and every four months
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: adds another trillion. I mean, given $ 5, 000, every American would
• 9:07
  Speaker 2: add another trillion.
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: Yeah, what's a trillion?
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: What's a trillion here, a trillion there? You know, it's
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: just ones and zeros. You know, it's... Yeah. And the
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: gold price is not lost on this. I mean, look
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: at what the gold price has done ever since Bretton
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: Woods collapsed, right? From $ 35 to $ 5, 600. Exactly here.
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: I'm just going to put up this little app that
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: I created here, if I can figure out how to
• 9:34
  Speaker 3: do it. And so we can show, because inflation is
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: always abstract. For me, it stopped becoming abstract a couple
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: of weeks ago. I was at the heck was I
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: someplace and I went into Walgreens to buy some deodorant
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: and deodorant that I was paying three bucks a container
• 9:58
  Speaker 3: for was nine dollars. and that's when the inflation really
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: hit me but if you really want to see how
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: inflation works.
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: Wait a minute before you show this you know what
• 10:08
  Speaker 2: my inflation calculator has been over the over the past
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: 10 years so Costco chocolate chunk cookies it's okay Because
• 10:18
  Speaker 2: when I started buying them about 10 years ago, they
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: were huge. Right? And they were like $ 5. 99. Right? So
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: the cookies continued to get smaller while they tried to
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: keep the price the same. Then they raised it to $ 7. 99.
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: And now they're $ 9. 99. And there's a lot less because
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: I put them in the same cookie jar too. So
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: now the cookie jar is not full and the price
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: is a lot higher. That's nuts, man.
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: But Yeah, like it just hits you certain times. So
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: I said, I'm going to create a calculator. So I
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: was born in 1957. According to the rigged CPI, that dollar,
• 10:59
  Speaker 3: it now takes $ 11. 79 to equal the purchasing power of
• 11:02
  Speaker 3: that $ 1. But if we flip it.
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Around in 2026, that dollar is $ 0.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: 085, basically, Eight and a half cents of a 1957
• 11:18
  Speaker 3: dollar equals a 2026 dollar. And then I put in housing,
• 11:25
  Speaker 3: which is a real tell. So housing is 40 dollars.
• 11:29
  Speaker 3: So we see that the consumer prices don't measure housing
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: and then gold.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:35
  Speaker 3: A dollar's worth of gold back then. Now, obviously, it
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: was fixed it artificially low at 35 bucks, 130 silver dollars.
• 11:43
  Speaker 3: is a laggard right now but it wasn't a few
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: weeks ago a few months ago it's 57 but here's
• 11:50
  Speaker 3: the really interesting thing the dow jones just straight investment
• 11:55
  Speaker 3: gains which is close to housing but then when you
• 11:57
  Speaker 3: include reinvested dividends it goes up to that you know
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: going in gold right yeah yeah and then because the
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: gold prices outperform the stock market oh yeah s and
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: p with Total reinvested dividends. But then let's look at
• 12:16
  Speaker 3: the debt to GDP. Back in 1957, it was 57.4,
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: and now it's 122%. Yeah, I.
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: Remember it being 35% in 1980 when I remember seeing
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: the paper coming out and seeing debt to GDP around 35%,
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: and our debt now is over a trillion dollars. Yeah.
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: That was back in like 1980. There it is.
• 12:43
  Speaker 3: 1980, 30.18%. So, you know, I showed this to my
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: kids and they're in their 30s and they were like
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: freaked because they don't live this stuff like we do.
• 12:57
  Speaker 2: Another thing to look at is a junk silver quarter, right?
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: A quarter minted before 1965. That was worth a quarter
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: back in 1964. That was worth a quarter. But now
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: that junk silver quarter is worth like $ 12, $ 13. Exactly.
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: That's exactly right. So from 1980 to now, it's 359.
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: But yeah, like we used to be able to buy
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: a gallon of gas for 20 cents, so two dimes.
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: And now, you know, the purchasing power of silver has
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: actually gone up because even at $ 4 gas, you know,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: it's basically– It's basically.
• 13:42
  Speaker 2: Less than a dime now. Well, I'm in California, so
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: $ 4 gas, we haven't seen that in quite a while.
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: We're talking about $ 6 gas here.
• 13:51
  Speaker 3: Anyway, this is all available at dollartimemachine.com. The link will
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: be in the show notes. Give me feedback out there, guys.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Let me know what you think. And so the question
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: is now, where do we go from here? Yeah.
• 14:07
  Speaker 2: I mean, of course, that's a wonderful question. As far
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: as the gold price and the silver price is concerned,
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: if you look at what happened in 2008, the lead
• 14:20
  Speaker 2: up of the gold price into 2008, we had a
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: double bottom right around 9-11, around $ 250 an ounce. And
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: then the gold price quadrupled into the first quarter of 2008.
• 14:37
  Speaker 2: But it was just an intraday peak at $ 1, 000 an ounce.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: And that was right ahead of the great financial crisis.
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: So then we had about a 30% correction in gold
• 14:52
  Speaker 2: and about a 55% correction in silver.
• 14:56
  Speaker 3: That's when I started buying it, right after that.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: Right. And then just recently, we just had... that intermediate
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: peak in the gold and silver prices at 5,600 in
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: gold and $ 121 in silver, right? Gold tripled in like
• 15:16
  Speaker 2: two and a half years. But the silver price quadrupled
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: in a year. And lo and behold, what just happened
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: at the beginning of the year, now we've had a
• 15:29
  Speaker 2: six-month correction Gold corrected 30% down to a little below $ 4, 000.
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: Silver corrected 55% down to around $ 54, $ 55 an ounce.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: It took about eight months to do it back in 2008,
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: but it took six months to do it this time.
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: But then following that correction, gold rallied 180%, but silver
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: rose 490% into that 50%. cyclical peak that we had
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: in 2011. So a similar move from the recent lows
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: that we just had in gold and silver would see
• 16:03
  Speaker 2: the gold price rise to around 10,000 an ounce and
• 16:06
  Speaker 2: silver reaching 300 an ounce by 2029. Now, if somebody
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: would have told me that gold was going to go
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: to $ 10, 000 an ounce, you know, five, six, seven years ago,
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: I'd have said, That's a bit much. That's a bit hyperbolic.
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: But now it might even be conservative given what the U.S.
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: 's untenable fiscal situation is in. Because, you know, as
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: far as what Washington is doing, they continue to borrow
• 16:33
  Speaker 2: and spend with no intention of paying anything back. And
• 16:36
  Speaker 2: everybody's starting to get the gist that, hey. there's going
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: to have to be a default there's going to have
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: to be a devaluation there's going to have to be
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: something so and if you take a look at the
• 16:46
  Speaker 2: gold price i mean it continues to go higher along
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: with the u.s debt ceiling which is you know just
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: a misnomer it's not a ceiling.
• 16:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah well whatever it's a leaky uh roof that's yeah
• 16:59
  Speaker 3: so uh so basically uh but you don't want to
• 17:04
  Speaker 3: get In the situation, like I managed to sell a
• 17:07
  Speaker 3: little bit going into the silver high. Yes. Some ETFs
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: and stuff that I would never touch otherwise, but I
• 17:16
  Speaker 3: knew it was coming. Yeah.
• 17:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, it was it was obviously a time to
• 17:19
  Speaker 2: to definitely trim some profits. I mean, I told my
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: my subscribers that I mean. It's difficult to call tops
• 17:27
  Speaker 2: and bottoms, but when you see a parabolic spike like that,
• 17:29
  Speaker 2: it becomes pretty easy. As far as gold stocks are concerned,
• 17:35
  Speaker 2: we're in a secular bull market now. We've been waiting
• 17:38
  Speaker 2: for this bull market in the gold stocks for a
• 17:40
  Speaker 2: long time. Do not sell your core positions, but you
• 17:43
  Speaker 2: have to trim the profits on the way up. Yeah.
• 17:46
  Speaker 2: That is just necessary because this sector is very volatile.
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: And if you don't take some profits, then when you
• 17:53
  Speaker 2: watch all your hard-earned profits go by the wayside really
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: quickly because these corrections happen fast and furious, that's when
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: you start to get panicky and you sell bottoms. So,
• 18:03
  Speaker 2: you know, it's difficult. It's easy to say, but it's
• 18:06
  Speaker 2: tough to do. But, I mean, you have to trim
• 18:09
  Speaker 2: when you see those rhino horns. And then you have
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: to buy when you see those fishing lines, right? Especially
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: when you see something short-term bad news happening in a company,
• 18:18
  Speaker 2: you know, the model is still viable, you still believe
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: in what they're doing, you know, they've got strong management,
• 18:24
  Speaker 2: they've got a great property, but make something short-term bad
• 18:27
  Speaker 2: news might happen with it. That's either, you know, that's
• 18:30
  Speaker 2: an opportunity to add more or you take a position
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: if it's on your watch list that, hey, I've been
• 18:37
  Speaker 2: waiting for something short-term, some short term bad news to
• 18:40
  Speaker 2: happen with this company so I can get it so
• 18:42
  Speaker 2: I can get a lower risk position. Because, you know,
• 18:46
  Speaker 2: you have to you have to flip those emotions. You know,
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, that's that's the only way to to to
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: really make money. I mean, in this sector, I mean,
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: you can't I mean, you can't be doing the opposite
• 18:58
  Speaker 2: and buying these spikes. And then you get scared out
• 19:02
  Speaker 2: and you sell them lows. I mean, you're going to
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: lose your money really quickly.
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: That's what John Q does. That's what Wall Street counts
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: on John Q doing, right?
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: Right. I mean, you know, I'm a serial early buyer.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: You know, I buy early. I'm buying on the way down.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: I'm accumulating. You know, when I take an entry position
• 19:24
  Speaker 2: of a half position or whatever, I'm hoping it goes lower.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: So by the time when I get the full position,
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: I get it cheaper. Average down. Exactly. Exactly. Yeah, because
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: if you do it the opposite, if you start buying
• 19:38
  Speaker 2: when these things start moving higher, then you start to
• 19:41
  Speaker 2: get a little nervous. There's gaps in the stock. There's
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: gaps the gdxj they're always looking at you staring at
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: you going okay is that gap gonna fill did i
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: buy too late yada yada yada you know i mean
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: it's you know but you have a lot of patience
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: and you have to buy the right stocks before you
• 19:58
  Speaker 2: have that that patience i mean there's still a lot
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: of crap in this sector that's the bad thing about
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: the bear the really long market that we had in
• 20:05
  Speaker 2: the juniors it didn't It really didn't cleanse out much.
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: All that crap is still there. They still got financed.
• 20:14
  Speaker 2: And you're still going to have to wade through the
• 20:16
  Speaker 2: minefield that is the junior resource stock sector. I mean,
• 20:20
  Speaker 2: it's a minefield. You just have to make sure you
• 20:23
  Speaker 2: get in the right ones and hold them. Like I said,
• 20:27
  Speaker 2: you trim them as they're going higher, especially if they
• 20:30
  Speaker 2: get to be too large of a position in your portfolio.
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: You know, I've got a stock that's a 30 bagger
• 20:35
  Speaker 2: now and I keep trimming it because it's getting too
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: big in the portfolio. It's a good problem, right? Such problems.
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: You know, I w I would call it a, uh,
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: IED field that improvised explosive device field.
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: Right. Right. And I'm hoping for more weakness here because
• 20:52
  Speaker 2: I've got a lot of new subscribers and they're, they're,
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: you know, they're accumulating the stocks that, that we've already
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: done really well on. And I'd like to see that.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: I'd like to see them go a little lower so
• 21:01
  Speaker 2: they can get better positions. Yeah.
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: Well, we're going to be, uh, in, uh, Beaver Creek, uh,
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: in exact, well, 12 days. And, uh, You expect to
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: see some fireworks there, don't you?
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: Well, you know, it's funny. I mean, Beaver Creek always
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: happens in September. It's usually earlier in September. And you
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: usually have that Beaver Creek curse like you have the
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: PDAC curse. Because October is seasonally a bad month for
• 21:33
  Speaker 2: the precious metals sector. So, you know, you go in,
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: you have all these one-on-one meetings, you get excited about companies. Oh, wow,
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: this looks good. I'm going to buy it, whatever. And
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: it immediately starts going down as soon as you get
• 21:43
  Speaker 2: home from the conference. Tell me about it. Yeah, I mean, that's,
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, so you just, you know, you do your
• 21:50
  Speaker 2: due diligence, you talk with the companies, you get all
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: the information, you know, and, you know, you just, you
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: scale into these things. You don't just buy a big
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: position and say, okay, this is the stock I want
• 22:00
  Speaker 2: to buy. I'm buying it all right now. Yep.
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: All right. Well, interesting times.
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: That's for sure.
• 22:08
  Speaker 3: We're living through interesting times.
• 22:11
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Chinese curse.
• 22:12
  Speaker 2: Yep. Usually we're dealing with tax loss selling season when
• 22:15
  Speaker 2: we're at Beaver Creek too. Yeah.
• 22:18
  Speaker 3: It's such problems, but, uh, but we are getting to
• 22:21
  Speaker 3: the strong part of the year and Q1 and the
• 22:26
  Speaker 3: geopolitical situation. Everything is going contrary to what you expected
• 22:30
  Speaker 3: to do, but nonetheless, uh, That's the head fake that
• 22:36
  Speaker 3: we encounter so often here in this market.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: Absolutely. Yeah. I mean, in bear markets, it's always one
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: step forward, two steps back. And in bull markets, it's
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: the opposite. It's two steps forward and one step back. Yeah.
• 22:52
  Speaker 2: That's what you continue to see here. Exactly. All right, man.
• 22:56
  Speaker 3: Well, hey, I will see you in Beaver Creek. I
• 23:01
  Speaker 3: have this coming up for you. Sweet. A paragraph copy
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: just for you.
• 23:06
  Speaker 2: Nice.
• 23:07
  Speaker 3: And if it was a little later, I'd get Martin
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: to sign it himself, Armstrong Economic Code. Just go over
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: to armstrongbook.com. You can get it there. And, hey, we'll
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: see you in 12 days. And hopefully nothing will blow
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: up before then.
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah. Looking forward to it, Gary. Always a pleasure speaking
• 23:31
  Speaker 2: with you.
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: Tell us your site again. Don't forget, plug for your site. Oh, yes.
• 23:36
  Speaker 2: JuniorMinerJunkieWithAY.com.
• 23:40
  Speaker 3: You taking members now?
• 23:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, there's still a bit of room left. I think
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: there's about 20, 25 subscriptions available because I cap it
• 23:49
  Speaker 2: at 500.
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well, I'm going to start to use that as
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: a contrary indicator.
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: Oh, I always use subscription rates. Because in January, February,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: I started to get tons of them. I'm like, okay,
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: we're getting close to a top. It's guaranteed, man.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: Yes.
• 24:10
  Speaker 2: Two in July, they just dried up to nothing. I'm like, okay,
• 24:13
  Speaker 2: we're getting close to a bottom.
• 24:15
  Speaker 3: And it's such a great indicator because it's just purely behavioral.
• 24:20
  Speaker 2: You know? Absolutely. It's prickly, nothing economic, but it's behavioral.
• 24:24
  Speaker 2: It's all sentiment. Yeah. Exactly.
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: So hopefully you won't hit that number for a while.
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: And the good times will roll. Yes.
• 24:33
  Speaker 2: Yes. I'd like to get as many people in as
• 24:35
  Speaker 2: possible that want to make money. We did really well
• 24:39
  Speaker 2: last year. The portfolio was up 265%. It's already up
• 24:43
  Speaker 2: 30% again this year. Slazy.
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 24:46
  Speaker 2: All right. All right.
• 24:48
  Speaker 3: Hey, any questions, comments? David, myself, KL at KerryLutz.com. The
• 24:54
  Speaker 3: inflation indicator that I showed on the screen is... DollarTimeMachine.com
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: and to get Martin's book, ArmstrongEconomics.com.
• 25:05
  Speaker 2: David, we'll see you soon. Looking forward to it. Thanks again.
• 25:08
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com.
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: Financial Survival Network, now more than ever.