Latest / Simply Bitcoin / Bitcoin Bull Run Not Over? | Simply SatoSHE

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Bitcoin Bull Run Not Over? | Simply SatoSHE · Simply Bitcoin

• 0:00
  So you're about to sit down for Thanksgiving dinner, Turkey,
• 0:03
  stuffing, and that one family member who's been waiting 11
• 0:07
  months to say. So how's that Bitcoin thing
• 0:10
  going? When are you going to sell?
• 0:12
  Is it a good time to buy? Or you might be faced with the
• 0:16
  most annoying question of all. Is it over for Bitcoin?
• 0:26
  Let's be honest, we all love our families and we also kind of
• 0:31
  want to flip the table when one of them repeats a negative
• 0:34
  Bitcoin headline that they heard on CNBC at 6:00 AM while
• 0:38
  microwaving their coffee. So today I want to make you
• 0:44
  absolutely trigger proof. This Thanksgiving.
• 0:47
  We're going to breakdown exactly how to answer the most
• 0:50
  uncomfortable question of the holiday season.
• 0:53
  Why is the price down? And we're going to upgrade that
• 0:56
  into a much more important question, which is why does that
• 1:00
  even matter? Followed by the Thanksgiving
• 1:02
  classic Uncle Bob. You don't even own Bitcoin
• 1:07
  because the real signals your family probably doesn't see, the
• 1:10
  ones that actually determine where Bitcoin is going, are
• 1:14
  screaming strength. And that might just mean that
• 1:17
  the bull run isn't over. In fact, it might mean that it's
• 1:22
  just getting started. I think there's really three
• 1:25
  things that people are kind of paying attention to.
• 1:26
  The first is the United States of government.
• 1:28
  At some point it's going to announce that they're buying
• 1:29
  Bitcoin, creating the initial Bitcoin kind of strategic
• 1:32
  reserve and setting the Bitcoin that we already had there was
• 1:34
  good. But that's kind of the, you
• 1:36
  know, not the main dish. The main dish is when they start
• 1:38
  buying and I think that will happen at some point.
• 1:40
  The first thing you can tell your family is this Texas just
• 1:44
  became the first state in the country set to buy Bitcoin
• 1:47
  directly. They're literally putting
• 1:49
  Bitcoin on the state of Texas's books.
• 1:52
  Texas should acquire A strategic reserve to hedge against future
• 1:55
  uncertainty. While the state is currently
• 1:57
  blessed with a thriving economy, we must prepare for future
• 2:01
  downturns that could negatively impact tax receipts and existing
• 2:04
  state investments. Public trust in financial
• 2:07
  institutions has eroded due to a lack of transparency.
• 2:10
  But Bitcoin is a unique asset because it is fully auditable.
• 2:14
  The code is open source. The monetary policy can be
• 2:18
  independently verified by anyone using a normal computer.
• 2:22
  The Bitcoin software downloads the entire history of the
• 2:24
  Ledger. Every transaction is checked to
• 2:27
  make sure that nobody is creating Bitcoin outside of the
• 2:30
  issuance schedule. And Bitcoin can only be issued
• 2:33
  through a competitive public mining process.
• 2:35
  Unlike other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum or XRP, Bitcoin
• 2:40
  is not dilutive as there will always be fewer than 21 million
• 2:43
  Bitcoin, a finite scarcity. The average Bitcoin has been
• 2:47
  held longer than two years and Bitcoin will continue to accrue
• 2:51
  long term value. So now is the perfect time to
• 2:53
  make a strategic investment. And look, initially they'll be
• 2:57
  purchasing Bitcoin through BlackRock CTF's.
• 2:59
  However, according to Texas Blockchain Council President Lee
• 3:04
  Bratcher, self custody is the final goal.
• 3:08
  Think about that. The inflation hedge state, the
• 3:11
  energy state, the mining state, the state with the 9th largest
• 3:16
  economy in the world is now a Bitcoin owning state.
• 3:20
  And it doesn't stop there. Check this clip out from What
• 3:23
  Bitcoin Did. If there's one thing I can just
• 3:25
  help people understand right now, 70% of all of the wealth
• 3:30
  that's ever been invested in Bitcoin, we price every UTXO
• 3:33
  based on the last move. 70% has a cost basis above 85 K.
• 3:37
  That's insane. 70%, This is Bitcoin's new home.
• 3:40
  So, you know, if you're talking about 30K and 10K and 5K
• 3:43
  Bitcoin, the truth is it's like ancient history.
• 3:45
  It just doesn't matter. There's not enough wealth down
• 3:47
  there. The wealth is all up here now
• 3:49
  because we're below it. That's a lot of potential
• 3:52
  sellers on the way back up. So the bulls have got a lot of
• 3:54
  work to do to get us out of this mess.
• 3:55
  However, the rotation of this capital, think about who these
• 4:00
  new buyers are, right? These aren't retail hodlers
• 4:03
  putting in their pocket money. You know, no one's got these
• 4:06
  kind of deep pockets. We're talking if there has to
• 4:08
  be, could be banks, could be sovereigns, could be a bit of
• 4:10
  everything I saw the other day, I forget which Gulf state, but
• 4:12
  there's a Gulf state that bought like half a billion dollars
• 4:15
  worth of the ETF. So like sovereigns are
• 4:17
  interested in this kind of thing.
• 4:18
  And these folks feel like price insensitive buyers where they're
• 4:22
  just accumulating, they're just forever allocators.
• 4:24
  So there is going to be this rotation, market's got to go
• 4:26
  through this process. It'll take time to hammer out
• 4:28
  this bottom, but at the same time, these guys probably
• 4:32
  aren't, you know, they're sailor types, they're not going to
• 4:34
  sell. So there's going to be this
• 4:35
  process of, you know, as we hammer out a floor wherever we
• 4:39
  find that clearing price, you know, Bitcoin's got a really
• 4:42
  bright future ahead of. It let's be real, if Bitcoin
• 4:44
  were actually in trouble, institutions wouldn't be
• 4:47
  doubling down at record levels. John d'agostino, the head of
• 4:51
  strategy at Coinbase, just presented one of the most
• 4:54
  bullish cases for Bitcoin, and not in some hypey influencer
• 4:59
  clip. Not to shit on ourselves, but in
• 5:03
  a polished institutional presentation that lays out why
• 5:07
  Bitcoin is structurally stronger than ever.
• 5:10
  Check it out. Nothing's really changed since
• 5:12
  the all time high. Can we just step back and think
• 5:14
  about structurally? In fact, you can argue the news
• 5:17
  coming out about Citibank, JP Morgan both leveraging stable
• 5:21
  coins at at huge scale. The Czechoslovakian National
• 5:24
  Bank has come out and announced they will be the first Eurozone
• 5:28
  country to purchase Bitcoin for the Treasury, clarifying rules
• 5:32
  from the IRS, Harvard and Downman announcing they own more
• 5:36
  Bitcoin than gold. All of those things are
• 5:40
  structurally very, very positive from the exchange point of view.
• 5:44
  We're not seeing a massive increase in open interest in a
• 5:47
  futures market. CME, you can check it yourself.
• 5:49
  I was always taught early on a declining price market
• 5:53
  accompanied by a rapidly declining open interest means
• 5:56
  the market is breaking down. Structurally, people are exiting
• 5:59
  the exiting the market forever. When I look at Bitcoin, I see
• 6:02
  the number of active Bitcoin wallets roughly the same as it
• 6:05
  was three months ago. I see both CME and Coinbase
• 6:09
  futures open interest again taking down a little bit, but
• 6:13
  not nearly in line with price direction.
• 6:15
  And so I go back to the very, very basic principle of if, if I
• 6:20
  like apples, I don't like them less because they're on sale.
• 6:25
  And so if you like this asset, you like it more.
• 6:29
  If you don't like this asset, if you've never liked this asset,
• 6:32
  you now have the microphone for a few months.
• 6:34
  So for two weeks, we'll see how long and enjoy that, enjoy that
• 6:38
  moment. His message couldn't be clearer.
• 6:40
  This isn't the end. This is probably the setup.
• 6:43
  This is the moment in every cycle where smart money
• 6:46
  accumulates while everyone else feels emotional.
• 6:51
  All right, that was just the appetizer.
• 6:53
  And now here's where things get wild.
• 6:56
  Polymarket, the largest prediction market in the world,
• 6:59
  had the probability of the United States establishing a
• 7:03
  national Bitcoin reserve at exactly 0 earlier this year, But
• 7:07
  out of nowhere, that number shot up to 62%.
• 7:12
  This means millions of dollars of real money are being wagered
• 7:16
  by people betting on whether the US government will buy Bitcoin
• 7:19
  and 2027. And that money is saying yes.
• 7:23
  Talk about putting it where your mouth is, am I right?
• 7:25
  So would this be happening if we were entering a supposed bull
• 7:29
  market? I don't know.
• 7:30
  Let me tell you what I think. I think that it could be because
• 7:34
  the state is slowly legitimizing Bitcoin through their strategic
• 7:38
  reserves, both on a local and federal level.
• 7:41
  And prediction markets, which don't care about feelings, only
• 7:44
  probability, are now saying that there's a major chance America
• 7:48
  joins Texas in buying Bitcoin. Imagine explaining explaining
• 7:51
  that to your friends and family over the break.
• 7:53
  If they still don't buy it, just check out this clip of Michael
• 7:57
  MO on Natalie Brunel's Coin Stories.
• 7:59
  Basically, there's no asset class that has ever disappeared
• 8:03
  once you cross a $2 trillion market cap part in the in the
• 8:06
  history of finance. So the the asset class has
• 8:12
  passed a point of no return. And then Michael Saylor said
• 8:16
  famously that if this thing's not going to 0, it's going to a
• 8:19
  million. Yeah.
• 8:21
  Right. So I'm not sure we're going to
• 8:23
  go to 1,000,000 tomorrow. I'm pretty sure we're not going
• 8:25
  to 1,000,000 tomorrow. But but just with the
• 8:29
  institutional adoption, I mean last year Bitcoin ETF was the
• 8:35
  was the most successful ETF launches in the history of, you
• 8:38
  know, finance financial markets. Then you have all I think it's
• 8:42
  between 9 and 14 states now in the US that's Wyoming, just kind
• 8:48
  of you know, when the further Texas behind it, you know,
• 8:51
  Florida, other states are, you know, racing to get the Bitcoin
• 8:56
  strategic reserve into their treasury strategy.
• 8:59
  You've got the, the federal government that you know, a
• 9:03
  month into their, their full force and you know that that's,
• 9:08
  that's going to take place. And you saw that SEC just kind
• 9:11
  of settled with Coinbase, right? So the pro, the pro crypto, the
• 9:16
  pro Bitcoin movement from a federal and state level is
• 9:21
  unstoppable. And you got BlackRock and all
• 9:23
  these financial institutions coming in.
• 9:25
  And I think, you know, Abu Dhabi just invests the 400 plus
• 9:30
  $1,000,000 in Bitcoin ETF and every, you know, sovereign
• 9:36
  nation states are investing to whether it's a Bitcoin ETF or
• 9:40
  MSTR and hopefully future in, in cooler as a, as a, as a way to,
• 9:49
  you know, allocate their, their, their assets.
• 9:52
  And I think this asset class of this $2 trillion Bitcoin asset
• 9:55
  class has passed the point of no return.
• 9:57
  Now here's the perfect analytical breakdown, summarized
• 10:01
  by Joel Wedson's Tweed, the founder of Alf Radical, one of
• 10:05
  the largest financial analytics companies in the world.
• 10:09
  He basically says every cycle people freak out because Bitcoin
• 10:12
  dips. I saw her.
• 10:13
  There's something they're not telling us.
• 10:14
  Let's get out. Let's open the door to get out.
• 10:16
  But they ignore the structural reality.
• 10:19
  Bitcoin dominance keeps rising because every Nothing else keeps
• 10:23
  dying. It's all.
• 10:25
  Going to 0. Against Bitcoin.
• 10:27
  Ultimately, no matter what anyone says about the price,
• 10:30
  Bitcoin is winning the long game because it has no CEO, no
• 10:34
  marketing team, no pre mine, no insiders, no dilution, no
• 10:39
  bailouts, no off switch. And yet every cycle it emerges
• 10:43
  stronger, absorbs more liquidity, and asserts itself as
• 10:47
  the only digital asset the world actually trusts.
• 10:51
  Inevitably, someone always asks, oh, isn't that Bitcoin thing a
• 10:55
  scam? No, Bitcoin is not crypto.
• 10:59
  They use dollars and they never question it.
• 11:02
  But if only they knew that, like Bitcoin, Fiat is also the
• 11:06
  opposite of all of those things that I just said.
• 11:09
  It's basically the most popular altcoin on earth at this point.
• 11:13
  It's. No one's IOU.
• 11:15
  It is if you own the on chain Bitcoin, it is not issued by
• 11:19
  anyone. It is something that that
• 11:22
  organically arose between people and there's no issuer, unlike
• 11:27
  Fiat currency where there's an issuer, every dollar is actually
• 11:31
  an IOU. Go look at the at the piece of
• 11:33
  paper in your wallet. If you still carry physical
• 11:35
  cash, it says it's an IOU. It's paid to the order of from
• 11:39
  the Federal Reserve Bank. It is an IOU.
• 11:41
  And what's backing that IOU? It's turtles all the way down,
• 11:44
  so to speak. It's just the full faith and
• 11:46
  credit of the US government. Well, what does that mean?
• 11:49
  Is that anything more than a confidence game?
• 11:52
  Other is that more than than the confidence game that that
• 11:55
  Bitcoin or gold or real estate are everything is subjective,
• 11:59
  that the whole concept of money is ephemeral.
• 12:02
  And and once you get your hands around that, then you realize,
• 12:06
  wow, I would rather store the the fruits of my labor in an
• 12:10
  honest Ledger that no one can manipulate.
• 12:12
  And you pretty quickly come to hard assets like Bitcoin as
• 12:16
  being something that you want to have in your portfolio.
• 12:19
  And then you start to realize, wow, I can move Bitcoin better,
• 12:22
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• 12:25
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• 12:28
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  All right, now let's get back to the show.
• 14:56
  So this is now why I'm more bullish than ever.
• 14:59
  Because if that wasn't enough, here's a rapid fire rebuttal
• 15:03
  list that you can tell your friends and family.
• 15:05
  This holiday, major countries are accelerating Bitcoin mining
• 15:09
  initiatives in places like Paraguay, Norway, and Japan.
• 15:13
  It's no longer just the United States and China.
• 15:15
  Multiple sovereign wealth funds are exploring Bitcoin exposure.
• 15:20
  JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley are launching leveraged ibit
• 15:24
  products, joining the ETF party. Who would have known after they
• 15:28
  were talking so badly about Bitcoin for all these years?
• 15:31
  I'll give you a clue. We knew the supply of Bitcoin on
• 15:34
  exchanges continues to hit multi year lows, which means that it's
• 15:39
  getting harder and harder to buy Bitcoin on exchanges.
• 15:42
  So sure, the price may be down, but this is what being early
• 15:46
  looks like. This is what generational wealth
• 15:49
  looks like if you have the patience.
• 15:51
  Most people don't. You know, as I say, volatility
• 15:54
  is vitality. Bitcoin is a volatile asset.
• 15:58
  If you're going to hold the asset, you need a four year time
• 16:01
  horizon as minimum a 10 year time horizon is really the the
• 16:06
  right time frame. If your time horizon is less
• 16:10
  than four years, you should hold the credit instruments like
• 16:13
  digital credit. And if you're an equity investor
• 16:17
  in a digital equity like my company, you need that same 4 to
• 16:22
  10 year time horizon. 4 is the short term, 10 years is the long
• 16:26
  term. I'm an officer of a publicly
• 16:29
  traded company. And what are we doing?
• 16:31
  We are in the business of buying a high energy, highly volatile
• 16:37
  asset and stripping the risk and the volatility off of it in
• 16:41
  order to sell it to people that are much more risk adverse, that
• 16:45
  are much more volatility adverse, that just want that
• 16:48
  yield. And so if Bitcoin wasn't
• 16:50
  volatile, it probably wouldn't be high performance and then our
• 16:54
  value added wouldn't be that great, right?
• 16:56
  Like, for example, I say to people, if you knew Bitcoin was
• 16:59
  going to go up 2% a month forever with no volatility,
• 17:03
  neither you nor I would be in business because all the
• 17:06
  conventional finance investors, all the conventional
• 17:10
  journalists, they would dominate the market.
• 17:11
  Warren Buffett would own all of it and there wouldn't be an
• 17:14
  opportunity for us. So I look at the volatility as
• 17:19
  it's challenge, but it's also the bug is the feature.
• 17:24
  And I say to people, you know, volatility is Satoshi's gift to
• 17:29
  the faithful. He basically gave you the
• 17:32
  ability to rise to the top of your profession as an analyst,
• 17:38
  as a journalist, as a corporate operator, as an investor.
• 17:43
  And if the volatility goes away, no one cares about your opinion
• 17:47
  on any of this. It's like, you know, you've got
• 17:50
  fire, and we've got the phrase burned.
• 17:53
  Fire burns you and electricity shocks you.
• 17:56
  And Henry Ford created an automobile, you know, with a
• 18:00
  burning engine, with a fire in the engine.
• 18:03
  And we created electronic transmissions.
• 18:06
  And so you put electricity and fire in the car and you've got a
• 18:09
  killer consumer product. And I think the key here is you
• 18:14
  got to look at at this market and say this is indicative of
• 18:17
  energy. You can harness the energy, you
• 18:20
  can't be scared of the energy, right?
• 18:23
  There are those people that run from the fires and then there is
• 18:27
  people that put the fire in the automobile or the jet airplane.
• 18:30
  And we kind of need the people to build the airplanes and build
• 18:33
  the automobiles if we're going to move the civilization
• 18:36
  forward. And if you've had the patience
• 18:38
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• 19:35
  So now when your family asks why is Bitcoin down?
• 19:39
  Here's your winning answer. It doesn't really matter.
• 19:42
  But if you really need to know, it's because markets move in
• 19:46
  cycles. But the fundamentals of Bitcoin
• 19:49
  have never been stronger. States are buying it.
• 19:51
  Institutions are accumulating prediction.
• 19:54
  Markets think the US government might be buying it.
• 19:57
  The global adoption curve is accelerating and.
• 20:00
  And we're all still stacking because this is the hardest
• 20:03
  asset ever invented. The holidays saved, your sanity
• 20:08
  preserved, your conviction strengthened.
• 20:11
  Drop a comment with the funniest Bitcoin question you've ever
• 20:14
  gotten from your family. I want to read all the good
• 20:16
  ones. That's all for now, everyone.
• 20:18
  Thanks for watching simply Bitcoins Satoshi.
• 20:21
  We wish you and your loved ones a happy Thanksgiving and hope
• 20:24
  you'll consider smashing the like and subscribe turning the
• 20:28
  notifications on and sharing this video with her friends.
• 20:31
  As always, stack, slay and stay bullish baby.