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The $40 Trillion Debt Crisis Exploded - Michael Busler #6431 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 1: You're listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
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  Speaker 2: And welcome, you are listening to and watching the Financial
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  Speaker 2: Survival Network. I'm your host, Kerry Lutz. Michael Bussler is
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  Speaker 2: with us now, professor, an economist, well-noted economic authority. And Michael,
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  Speaker 2: it's great to have you back on the show. So
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  Speaker 2: we got interest rates going up and an expanding economy.
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  Speaker 2: They just raised the GDP from 1.5 to 2.2, which, well,
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  Speaker 2: it's not blazing growth. administration officials think we could get
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  Speaker 2: double digit economic growth. How can that be possible?
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  Speaker 3: Well, that's a little optimistic, but so let's take a
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  Speaker 3: look at the big picture. At the beginning of the year,
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  Speaker 3: before I knew about the Iran conflict, my forecast was
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  Speaker 3: that economic growth would hit 4% by the end of
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  Speaker 3: the year and inflation would be down to 2% by
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  Speaker 3: the end of the year. Then the Iran conflict hit,
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  Speaker 3: messed up some supply chain things, so economic growth wasn't bad.
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  Speaker 3: It was 2.5 in the first quarter, 2.2 in the
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  Speaker 3: second quarter. The third quarter, we're likely to see 3.5-ish growth,
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  Speaker 3: although the Atlantic Fed is saying it could be as
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  Speaker 3: high as 5. So growth is taking off. The number
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  Speaker 3: of people getting laid off is at a 40-year low.
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  Speaker 3: So the economy is doing well. Business investment is up
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  Speaker 3: 10% over what it was last year at this time,
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  Speaker 3: mostly because in July, the bill that they passed allowed
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  Speaker 3: businesses to expense investments 100% in the year that they're made.
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  Speaker 3: So in other words, if I buy a building for
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  Speaker 3: a million dollars, usually I have to depreciate that over
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  Speaker 3: 25 years to recover my capital. I can write the
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  Speaker 3: whole thing off this year and recover my capital this year.
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  Speaker 3: That's led to an investment boom, which is going well.
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  Speaker 3: The fly in the ointment here is the Iran conflict.
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  Speaker 3: It was supposed to be relatively short-lived. And in the beginning,
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  Speaker 3: Trump had very strong support. But the thing is, it
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  Speaker 3: dragged out. He kept saying it'll be over shortly. He
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  Speaker 3: told us that in March and April and May and June.
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  Speaker 3: And now he's telling us probably after the midterms. What
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  Speaker 3: that's done is caused energy prices to spike. The inflation rate,
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  Speaker 3: which was at 9% in 2022, we brought it down
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  Speaker 3: to 2.4%, getting close to the Fed's target. Then with
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  Speaker 3: oil spiking, it went back up again, and it's now settled.
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  Speaker 3: It's not disaster, but it's about 3.4%. as measured by
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  Speaker 3: either the Consumer Price Index, which most of us look at,
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  Speaker 3: or the other measures called the PCE, Personal Consumption Expenditure,
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  Speaker 3: calculated slightly different. But they're both at 3.4%. If you
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  Speaker 3: take out energy, the number drops down under 2.5%. So
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  Speaker 3: we're doing well. We have to get this Iran conflict over.
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  Speaker 3: We have to get the oil markets normalized. the supply
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  Speaker 3: coming in. Once that happens, you'll see oil prices go
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  Speaker 3: under $ 70 a barrel, perhaps as low as $ 60. And
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  Speaker 3: you'll see gasoline prices go well under $ 2 a gallon,
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  Speaker 3: perhaps as low as $ 2. 50. It may take a few
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  Speaker 3: months to get there, but that's a trend. And once
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  Speaker 3: all that happens, I think the economy is really set
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  Speaker 3: to take off. If we can get those energy prices down,
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  Speaker 3: I think economic growth will increase. And we could see,
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  Speaker 3: assuming the conflict gets over relatively quickly, we could see
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  Speaker 3: a 4% growth rate in the fourth quarter or maybe
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  Speaker 3: in the first quarter of next year.
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  Speaker 2: Well, so here's my take on the war. I mean,
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  Speaker 2: it is an economic drag. It's inflationary, as all wars are.
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  Speaker 2: But the key to this war is the W-2 economy
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  Speaker 2: versus the 1099 economy. as long as we don't have
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  Speaker 2: W2 employees on the ground in Iran, I think the
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  Speaker 2: average person, they watch the headlines, they're not overly concerned. Yes,
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  Speaker 2: they don't like the price of oil being high, but
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  Speaker 2: it's politically unacceptable to have W2 employees on the ground. Now,
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  Speaker 2: we've got lots of 1099s there, military contractors. We have
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  Speaker 2: this called the PMC, Private Military Contractor. He contracts with
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  Speaker 2: some LLC. He's military through and through. He spent probably
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  Speaker 2: his entire career in the military. Now he's directing drone
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  Speaker 2: warfare and logistics and mobilization, arming of the populace, whatever
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  Speaker 2: it is. So as long as the U.S. doesn't have
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  Speaker 2: boots on the ground, real boots, and I know there
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  Speaker 2: have been some casualties, I think the American public isn't
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  Speaker 2: as fixated on this war as, say, like Vietnam, as Afghanistan,
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  Speaker 2: as Iraq. And maybe that's what we've learned from all
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  Speaker 2: these wars is as long as we don't have a
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  Speaker 2: military force there, yeah, if we're attacked, I think the
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  Speaker 2: public will put up with it for a while. But
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  Speaker 2: to just go overseas... to places most people can't even
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  Speaker 2: find on a map, they're against it. And then, you know,
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  Speaker 2: how it affects them, how it affects the economy, the
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  Speaker 2: gas price is the big thing, right?
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  Speaker 3: Exactly. The war itself, I agree with you. The average American,
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  Speaker 3: I don't think, is that concerned with what's happening over there.
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  Speaker 3: I think most people, not the Democrats, but most people
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  Speaker 3: believe that Trump thought that Iran was on the verge
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  Speaker 3: of a nuclear weapon. They had intercontinental ballistic missiles that
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  Speaker 3: would go much further than we thought they would. They
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  Speaker 3: can easily reach Europe and they're not that far away
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  Speaker 3: from reaching us. And President Trump said, even if this
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  Speaker 3: costs the Americans a little bit in higher gas prices,
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  Speaker 3: It may even cost me some problems in the midterm
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  Speaker 3: elections because of the higher gas prices. But he has
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  Speaker 3: to end this conflict and end any chance of Iran
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  Speaker 3: getting a nuclear weapon because that would wreck habit, not
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  Speaker 3: just now, but for future generations. So I think he
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  Speaker 3: did the right thing. He also, the other thing, when
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  Speaker 3: you go to war, you have to go to war
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  Speaker 3: with the idea we're going to win. He didn't really
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  Speaker 3: do that. He had them pretty much wiped out. And
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  Speaker 3: then he backed off and he said, look, I don't
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  Speaker 3: want to kill a lot of people. And you have
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  Speaker 3: to admire him for that. I don't want to kill
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  Speaker 3: a lot of people. So I've got, excuse me, Iran
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  Speaker 3: really in a very difficult spot. They're going to have
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  Speaker 3: to negotiate with us, is what Trump thought. Now, I
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  Speaker 3: somewhat disagree because you can't negotiate with this regime. Even
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  Speaker 3: if you do and you come up with something, they'll
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  Speaker 3: break it a couple of days later, as they did
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  Speaker 3: with that memorandum of understanding. I think three days after
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  Speaker 3: it was signed, they were shooting. So even if you
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  Speaker 3: come up with an agreement, the question is, how are
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  Speaker 3: you going to enforce it? I think the only way
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  Speaker 3: out of this is we have to get Iran to
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  Speaker 3: totally surrender. and then come up with some kind of
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  Speaker 3: a regime change led by the Iranian people, not led
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  Speaker 3: by the American government. Once we get that, energy flows,
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  Speaker 3: gas prices and oil prices fall, the inflation rate falls,
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  Speaker 3: the economy soars. That's the only bad spot, really, in
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  Speaker 3: the economy is the energy prices.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I think they're in a complete stranglehold now, the Iranians,
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  Speaker 2: you know, They've lost control, apparently, over the Strait of Hormuz,
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  Speaker 2: and the oil is flowing. And the economy, you know,
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  Speaker 2: the Rial, the Iranian Rial, is in freefall. It's millions
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  Speaker 2: to a dollar now.
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  Speaker 3: $ 2. 5 million to a dollar last I looked.
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  Speaker 2: Which means it has zero value. It's a wheelbarrow full
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  Speaker 2: of marks, and they steal the wheelbarrow and leave the
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  Speaker 2: marks on the ground, you know? Exactly. I think he
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  Speaker 2: didn't anticipate the murderous regime, how many of their own
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  Speaker 2: people they would kill to stay in power. But the
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  Speaker 2: strategy now is basically bleeding them out, and we'll see
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  Speaker 2: how long they can really stay in power. One of
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  Speaker 2: the big guys there was liquidating all of his real
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  Speaker 2: estate in Europe Uh, Kenny's on the dollar just to
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  Speaker 2: get some money out because he knows the days are limited. So, uh,
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  Speaker 2: you know, war is unpredictable. And look, they've been at
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  Speaker 2: war with the United States for 47 years and they
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  Speaker 2: haven't made a secret of it. So now we get
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  Speaker 2: a little payback and hopefully neutralize them. And the same
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  Speaker 2: thing with Cuba. You know, we didn't talk about Cuba.
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  Speaker 2: basically the same strategy no w2s on the ground we
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  Speaker 2: don't want them we've got gitmo and we don't take
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  Speaker 2: any uh military action unless there's a mass exodus and
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  Speaker 2: uh where the disease spreads across the straits of florida
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  Speaker 2: to uh to florida there's a straight of florida because
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  Speaker 2: it's 90 miles and it's become this pandemic uh ridden
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  Speaker 2: uh islands of Cuba. So same thing, same deal. When
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  Speaker 2: you allow these problems to fester indefinitely and you put
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  Speaker 2: off dealing with them into the future, this is the
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  Speaker 2: situation you have. Trump made the decision to go in
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  Speaker 2: there to take them on, finally, Iran I'm talking about,
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  Speaker 2: and Cuba, but it's not going to be a quick
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  Speaker 2: little foray. It's going to take time.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think people thought it was so quick in Venezuela,
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  Speaker 3: only less than an hour, that they thought some of
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  Speaker 3: these other things would get over quickly. Even when we
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  Speaker 3: went into Iran, President Trump said this should only be
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  Speaker 3: four to six weeks. But then he got so far
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  Speaker 3: and he decided to stop and try to negotiate. Personally,
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  Speaker 3: I don't think that was the right move to make.
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  Speaker 3: But I think everything is going in the right direction
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  Speaker 3: at this point. Secretary Besson says... that Iran is really broke.
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  Speaker 3: And even in Iran, there's shortages of gasoline and shortages
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  Speaker 3: of even food and water. You can't last too long
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  Speaker 3: with that happening. So I think we're on the right
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  Speaker 3: track there with our foreign policy. If we can just
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  Speaker 3: have what I refer to as an October surprise, have
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  Speaker 3: something happen so that this thing gets over, oil comes
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  Speaker 3: down right before the election. I think we're in good shape. Afterwards,
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  Speaker 3: there is one huge problem that we have to tackle.
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  Speaker 3: And every president really... Yeah, the deficit and the public debt.
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  Speaker 3: The public debt is up to $ 40 trillion. $ 40 trillion.
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  Speaker 3: People say, what does that mean? So most economists will
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  Speaker 3: tell you if the debt is less than one year's
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  Speaker 3: GDP and we're about $ 32 trillion, you're okay. So we're
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  Speaker 3: way over that. So the next question is, well, what's
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  Speaker 3: the problem? There are two problems. One, The annual interest
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  Speaker 3: on the public debt is now approaching $ 1 trillion. That's
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  Speaker 3: $ 1 trillion every year just to go for interest expenses
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  Speaker 3: and not to go for any kind of good government spending,
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  Speaker 3: if there is much good government spending, but at least
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  Speaker 3: something positive. So that's the first problem. Interest rates, the
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  Speaker 3: interest on the debt is a huge number. The federal
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  Speaker 3: government spends $ 7. 4 trillion, which is ridiculous. They spent 4.9
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  Speaker 3: in 2019. Hell, it got this large. I don't know.
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  Speaker 3: But they spend that much, and one trillion of that
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  Speaker 3: seven-something goes to interest on the public debt. So we
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  Speaker 3: need to do something about that. The second problem is
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  Speaker 3: with the federal government pulling $ 40 trillion out of capital markets,
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  Speaker 3: it will create a capital shortage. That means business is
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  Speaker 3: going to have a tough time raising capital to expand.
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  Speaker 3: Consumer credit is going to be a little tougher. That
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  Speaker 3: could keep interest rates higher. The two reasons that those
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  Speaker 3: long-term rates are so high, one is the inflation rate.
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  Speaker 3: The second reason is that this public debt is so
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  Speaker 3: high and it increases demand for funds in the markets
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  Speaker 3: and drives up rates. So we have to work on
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  Speaker 3: this public debt.
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  Speaker 2: And no one wants to do that. No one wants
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  Speaker 2: to do that except Rand Paul. Yeah.
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  Speaker 3: So every president has kicked the can down the road.
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  Speaker 3: The thing is, we're at the end of the road
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  Speaker 3: and keep kicking it down any further. So something has
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  Speaker 3: to be done. The first thing to do, you know,
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  Speaker 3: I say if you're stuck in a deep hole with
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  Speaker 3: a public debt, you're stuck in a deep hole. The
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  Speaker 3: first thing to do is stop digging. So what we
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  Speaker 3: have to do is get the current budget balanced. It
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  Speaker 3: is extremely difficult to do that. Why? A couple of reasons.
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  Speaker 3: The government put some temporary programs in during COVID. And
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  Speaker 3: as Milton Friedman used to say, there's nothing so permanent
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  Speaker 3: as a temporary government program. And all this temporary spending
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  Speaker 3: ended up going into the budget and staying there. This
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  Speaker 3: administration will not raise tax rates on anybody. They won't
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  Speaker 3: raise tax rates on anybody. They'll increase revenue by growing
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  Speaker 3: the economy. And every year since the last tax cut
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  Speaker 3: in 2017 and the one last year, every year tax
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  Speaker 3: revenue goes up. The problem is spending keeps going up faster.
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  Speaker 3: So the question is, how do we get the spending down?
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  Speaker 3: So when Elon Musk does his Doge thing, He said,
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  Speaker 3: among other things, he said, look at Medicaid. There are
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  Speaker 3: 70 million people on Medicaid. So we looked at that
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  Speaker 3: and he determined about 10 million of them shouldn't be collecting.
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  Speaker 3: Either they're not eligible or they could be eligible, but
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  Speaker 3: they're physically and mentally able to work and they should
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  Speaker 3: be working. So we should cut those 10 million people
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  Speaker 3: off of Medicaid and get government spending down. even with
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  Speaker 3: a Republican majority in both houses of Congress, they couldn't
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  Speaker 3: get Medicaid spending down. So it's very difficult to cut spending.
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  Speaker 3: Trump just tried something last week. He said, hey, Congress
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  Speaker 3: allocated $ 800 and some million for some social programs and things.
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  Speaker 3: I don't think I have to spend it. So I'm
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  Speaker 3: not going to spend it. And The problem is that's
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  Speaker 3: called the pocket rescission. If you don't spend money that
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  Speaker 3: Congress has allocated, he now has to go back to
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  Speaker 3: Congress and say, listen, I'm not going to spend this.
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  Speaker 3: We don't need it. I'm going to I want to
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  Speaker 3: help reduce government spending. I'm not going to take the
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  Speaker 3: position that every other president has taken, which is if
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  Speaker 3: we don't spend this money now, we're not going to
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  Speaker 3: get it next year. So go ahead and spend it
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  Speaker 3: if it's in the budget. Whether we need it or
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  Speaker 3: not is not that important. Spend it so we can
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  Speaker 3: get it next year. So Trump is doing what he
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  Speaker 3: can to try to get government spending down. On the
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  Speaker 3: other side, we have to rebuild the military, and he
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  Speaker 3: needs a large amount of money to do that. The
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  Speaker 3: Democrats' position was, well, for every dollar you spend on
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  Speaker 3: defense spending, you should spend a dollar in domestic program spending. Well,
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  Speaker 3: we can't do that. So Trump's going to have a
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  Speaker 3: lot of manipulating to do to try to get government
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  Speaker 3: spending down. If the Democrats get one or both control
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  Speaker 3: of one or both houses of Congress next month, he
• 17:34
  Speaker 3: won't be able to get spending down at all. And
• 17:36
  Speaker 3: we're going to have a lot more problems. But the
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  Speaker 3: public debt and the annual deficit, we have to attack
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  Speaker 3: that as soon as possible. We can't kick the can
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  Speaker 3: down the road anymore. Agreed. Agreed.
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  Speaker 2: Well, I want to show you something. I think you're
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: going to enjoy this, Professor. I'm going to put it
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: up on the screen. All of you out there, you
• 17:58
  Speaker 2: already know about it. I've been working on this project
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: for several months, really doing a lot.
• 18:03
  Speaker 3: Of work on it.
• 18:05
  Speaker 2: It's called the Dollar Time Machine, Professor. Okay. We click
• 18:10
  Speaker 2: it here. Everyday prices. I was born in 1957. You're
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: probably right around the same age. Yep. and a dollar
• 18:22
  Speaker 2: in 1957, now you need almost $ 12. That's according to
• 18:28
  Speaker 2: the CPI, which we know is a flawed measure. A
• 18:31
  Speaker 2: dollar worth of housing, meaning housing ownership, is now $ 41.
• 18:36
  Speaker 2: That's a huge problem.
• 18:37
  Speaker 3: 118, 119, silver, 47. And these numbers fluctuate.
• 18:48
  Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, the Dow Jones Industrial, $ 117, $ 1. But if
• 18:55
  Speaker 2: it was reinvested, it would be worth $ 832. So it
• 18:59
  Speaker 2: was the power of compounding. And the power of owning assets, right?
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: $ 190 for the S & P, $ 1341 now.
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin obviously came into existence in 2010. Debt to GDP? Yes.
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: And here, when a year I was born, 57, now 122%.
• 19:21
  Speaker 2: And you can sign up for updates as well. Here's
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: the debt clock ticking away nonstop, 40 trillion. So it's
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: available at dollartimemachine.com. Go there, sign up for notifications. And, Professor,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: I just put in, while you were mentioning it, interest expense.
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: So it's being updated now. But basically, we have here
• 19:56
  Speaker 2: the public debt. And it's pretty cool.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, very cool. I'll have to look at that. Thank you.
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll send you the link. Here it is. Interest
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  Speaker 2: paid on the debt. I just updated it, literally.
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  Speaker 3: Okay.
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  Speaker 2: 1957, it was $ 5. 4 billion. In 2026, $ 1. 05 trillion.
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  Speaker 3: So it went over a trillion. The last number I
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  Speaker 3: saw was a little under a trillion. Remember I said
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  Speaker 3: before it's about a trillion dollars a year. It's a
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  Speaker 3: little over now.
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  Speaker 2: Well, the debt keeps going up geometrically. It can't continue
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: on this way. Hey, Professor, we want to find out
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: more about you, connect with you on the web. How
• 20:33
  Speaker 2: do we find you?
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: So I write a weekly column for Newsmax and their
• 20:40
  Speaker 3: finance page. Usually I write it on Monday. It's usually
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: on either Monday or Tuesday. If you want to look
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: at every column I wrote in the last, I think
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: it's in 2013, I have a Facebook page. So just
• 20:53
  Speaker 3: go to Facebook and search for Funding Democracy. Funding Democracy, facebook.com
• 20:59
  Speaker 3: slash Funding Democracy. Every one of my columns is there.
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: And if you'd like to follow me, that'd be great.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: Excellent. Really appreciate you coming on, as always. It's been
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  Speaker 2: a while, but thank you so much. And we will
• 21:11
  Speaker 2: talk to you again real soon. Questions, comments for the
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: good professor, myself, shoot me an email, kl at kerrylutz.com.
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: going away for a couple of weeks, but I will
• 21:21
  Speaker 2: be in touch and still posting regularly. And again, Professor,
• 21:25
  Speaker 2: thanks so much for coming on, and we will talk
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: to you again real soon.
• 21:29
  Speaker 3: Thank you. My pleasure.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to Cary Lutz's Financial Survival Network, your
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go to FinancialSurvivalNetwork.com.
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: Financial Survival Network, now more than ever.