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MMA DFS - FIGHT NIGHT | 6/14/25 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall.
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: System's going clear, we're lifting.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: What's going on?
• 0:37
  Speaker 3: Everybody happy Wednesday night, Thursday night, Friday night, Saturday, Thursday morning,
• 0:43
  Speaker 3: Friday morning. Whenever you're listening day early. We're doing the
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: show yesterday. Last week, we did it Wednesday. This week,
• 0:49
  Speaker 3: we're doing it Wednesday. Got some real life stuff going on,
• 0:52
  Speaker 3: but hey, thirteen fights fingers crossed. We keep all thirteen
• 0:56
  Speaker 3: if there is any changes. Of course, everything up on
• 0:59
  Speaker 3: Friday always up dated throughout Saturday. If there is any
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: changes there, projections, ownership, everything you see right here will
• 1:06
  Speaker 3: be filled in, will be color coded on the stone.
• 1:10
  Speaker 3: This is the prem preliminary look. If you're not a member,
• 1:14
  Speaker 3: we would love to have you at Chippinnation dot com.
• 1:16
  Speaker 3: Plenty going on PGA locks tomorrow. Whenever you're watching, they'll
• 1:20
  Speaker 3: still be Showdown, Contest, Showdown's good NBA Finals tonight, Big
• 1:24
  Speaker 3: Marley's Pacers and the thunder Game three Big One after this.
• 1:29
  Speaker 3: Excited for that, but hey, we're here talking fights, and
• 1:31
  Speaker 3: Big Marley will be at the Fights in Atlanta, Georgia,
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: seven pm Eastern, Big Marley, that's pretty excited.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: How you feel about this card? Anything you want to say?
• 1:41
  Speaker 4: How were doing yeah, I'm looking forward to it. I
• 1:44
  Speaker 4: think it's solid for a fight night. I mean, it
• 1:49
  Speaker 4: would have been a lot more solid. I guess if
• 1:51
  Speaker 4: Usman was the Ousman he was like two years ago,
• 1:54
  Speaker 4: but I don't think I've ever seen Usman live, so
• 1:57
  Speaker 4: I'm pumped for that. And then Buckley could be the
• 1:59
  Speaker 4: new up and comer, possible title contender here if he
• 2:02
  Speaker 4: gets a win. And then I mean, I don't love
• 2:05
  Speaker 4: the comin event for DFS purposes, but we got some
• 2:08
  Speaker 4: some bangers below there, and we got my boy Cody
• 2:12
  Speaker 4: Brundage on the car too, So I'm pumped absolutely.
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: Like you said it, this is a good fight night
• 2:17
  Speaker 3: card DFS and real life. I mean a if there's
• 2:20
  Speaker 3: a live crowd, it's already gets a leg up compared
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: to the APEX in terms of fight nights.
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: But thirteen fights that's big time.
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: And there's plenty of big expected finishes on the car,
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: like you see a minus one thousand, minus two fifty,
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: minus one fifty in the main events, minus six hundred
• 2:36
  Speaker 3: minus five hundred. Like there's some expected finishes on the card,
• 2:40
  Speaker 3: there's also plenty of big favorites like Broadsight Overview. This
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: I wrote these up Monday, like this, minus thirteen hundred
• 2:46
  Speaker 3: is now minus two thousand, minus seven Hundred's like minus
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: eight hundred, minus seven hundred, minus five hundred. There's a
• 2:52
  Speaker 3: lot of big favorites. Minus four to seventy five now
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: minus six hundred. Very similar card to last week where
• 2:58
  Speaker 3: we had very few mid tier five only two this
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: week again a lot of.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Upper tier, a lot of lower tier.
• 3:04
  Speaker 3: And that's because DraftKings literally goes based on just money
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: line nods doesn't take any consideration. Five rounds, doesn't take
• 3:11
  Speaker 3: anything else in a consideration besides what's the money line
• 3:14
  Speaker 3: like on all the fights, and then from there it.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Just gets priced that way.
• 3:17
  Speaker 3: Whereas fan duel, the one thing they do do right
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: is they probably like if it's five rounds, they take
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: that into consideration. However, when you can win one hundred
• 3:25
  Speaker 3: bucks in the big flagship is the first place prize,
• 3:29
  Speaker 3: it is pretty bad. Obviously I'm exaggerating a little bit,
• 3:32
  Speaker 3: but yeah, broadslad overview a lot of big favorites, but
• 3:35
  Speaker 3: there is thirteen fights. There is ways to get difference.
• 3:38
  Speaker 3: Any broad slaide for you, Big Marley, before we go
• 3:40
  Speaker 3: fight by fight.
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: No, I actually uh put those missing stars in if
• 3:48
  Speaker 4: you want to do a refresh. But I think I
• 3:50
  Speaker 4: got a four star on the main event, which is rare.
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: But I do think it's a top three fight to target.
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: I just like those two five stars a little bit more.
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: I feel like I might have more total ownership on
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: those two fights rather than the main event. But that's
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: where a lot of the ownership will go, or to
• 4:08
  Speaker 4: those three fights, and then I might have a spot
• 4:10
  Speaker 4: or two where I'll try to get contrarian. But for me,
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: it'll just be leaving you know, five six, seven hundred
• 4:16
  Speaker 4: on the table, hoping that that'll get me a little
• 4:18
  Speaker 4: bit different. But I'm not gonna get too crazy on
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: this card.
• 4:21
  Speaker 3: I it's not it's not a card I want you
• 4:24
  Speaker 3: did do it. It's it sometimes takes a little bit
• 4:26
  Speaker 3: on the site. I see it on the thing, I'll refresh,
• 4:28
  Speaker 3: we'll get it up there in a couple of minutes. Yeah,
• 4:32
  Speaker 3: the what was I just gonna say, Man.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: That's bad. I have zero clue.
• 4:39
  Speaker 3: I was just gonna say, I do agree with your
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: four star points about the main event, Like I'm gonna
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: have fight fades like a Buckley third round knockout could
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: easily score ninety eight, and there's just so many studs
• 4:49
  Speaker 3: up top, like you see minus five to fifty inside
• 4:51
  Speaker 3: the distance proplem minus three to fifty, Like there's some
• 4:54
  Speaker 3: heavy favorites expected to finish and put up big scores,
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: like a one oh one for Buckley at.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Nine k might now vietnaugh.
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: So I'm totally in agreement with you, Like it's a
• 5:02
  Speaker 3: great fight to target, like almost every main event is,
• 5:05
  Speaker 3: but always.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: Comes with a boatload of ownership.
• 5:08
  Speaker 3: And I do think it might be over on this week,
• 5:10
  Speaker 3: but we are jumping ahead a little bit. First of all,
• 5:12
  Speaker 3: little Neck, what's going on, Ben Hebrew chiet I just
• 5:15
  Speaker 3: saw he got the slave plan up? Good luck tonight, Rio,
• 5:18
  Speaker 3: and then Mark what is going on? Lots of big
• 5:20
  Speaker 3: lines indeed, so I'll do one more refresh and then
• 5:25
  Speaker 3: we will go bottom to top. Still not there yet,
• 5:27
  Speaker 3: It'll be there. I see Big Marley did it sometimes
• 5:30
  Speaker 3: again it's slow getting onto the website, but bottom to
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: top again like Bun helps us out a ton first
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: fight of the nights, Big boy favorite, Jamie Lynnhorth, big
• 5:40
  Speaker 3: girl favorite. I should say Jamie Lynnhorth minus six hundred,
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: thinking of Vanessa Demopolis plus four twenty five plus two
• 5:47
  Speaker 3: seventy five for this fight to finish fourth plus four
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: fifteen inside the distance Demopolis plus five point fifty easy.
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: Fight for me.
• 5:55
  Speaker 3: No chance in twenty teams or less am I playing
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: Jamie Lynn Hoorth at ninety four hundred. How she ever,
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: minus six hundred against anyone is shocking. But at the
• 6:05
  Speaker 3: end of the day, if there was someone for a
• 6:07
  Speaker 3: TV against Vanessa Demopolis taking the fight on short notice.
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: She's also taking the fight up away class at one
• 6:13
  Speaker 3: twenty five usually one fifteen, and you can see five
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: inches in height difference nine or seven inches in reach difference.
• 6:20
  Speaker 3: Jamie Lindhorth the way stronger fighter.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: I wrote these up on Monday, these odds, so four
• 6:26
  Speaker 3: seventy five Monday now minus six hundred. Hoorth is taking money,
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: but the inside of this is still plus four fifteen.
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: We talked about all those studs in the nine k range.
• 6:35
  Speaker 3: You need big, big scores. No chance I'm playing hor
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Th in twenty teens or less. Demopolis my preferred play.
• 6:42
  Speaker 3: I prefer her to some other big dogs like I
• 6:45
  Speaker 3: like her more than Mattino, I like her more than Brundage,
• 6:49
  Speaker 3: her more than Alonzo like, so naturally I'm gonna get some,
• 6:53
  Speaker 3: but no me like, if I'm getting twenty five percent,
• 6:55
  Speaker 3: I'm bumping her down probably fifteen max. I guess I'll
• 6:58
  Speaker 3: throw it to you. How do you see it going?
• 7:00
  Speaker 3: What's the Vanessa's most that's not the victory.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: I would say that her path to victory's the only
• 7:09
  Speaker 4: way she makes the optimal lineup, in my opinion, would
• 7:11
  Speaker 4: be an armbar from guard, and that could put her
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: at like ninety six ninety seven tops. I mean, I
• 7:18
  Speaker 4: guess she could make the optimal lineup with like a
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: bad decision where she just gets you know, like seventy
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: five strikes throughout the course of three rounds, and maybe
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: we just need her at sixty eight hundred. But I
• 7:33
  Speaker 4: don't think she has any real ceiling other than that armbar.
• 7:37
  Speaker 4: And on the horse side, the danger is that armbar.
• 7:42
  Speaker 4: So you probably shouldn't take her down in this fight.
• 7:44
  Speaker 4: You're a lot bigger than her, you're a better striker.
• 7:47
  Speaker 4: So I think she should keep this fight standing, and
• 7:49
  Speaker 4: she probably wins a clear thirty twenty seven if she's
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: able to do that. Maybe the idiot judges don't think
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: it's a thirty twenty seven, but everyone watching I'll think so.
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: But she's so low volume on the feet that, yeah,
• 7:59
  Speaker 4: I wouldn't feel confident in her even winning that at
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: minus five hundred. There's no way I'm laying minus five
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: hundred on hoarse here. If I make one hundred and
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: fifty lineups, I'll have zero horse. I'm mixing her out
• 8:09
  Speaker 4: first thing I do. I'm okay with some Demopolis, but
• 8:12
  Speaker 4: I like a couple of the guys you named more than.
• 8:16
  Speaker 2: Her, so I doubt I get to her either.
• 8:18
  Speaker 4: It's a one star whenever it does refresh, this is
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: a one star fight for me.
• 8:21
  Speaker 2: I'm just not gonna use any of it.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: That's fair.
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: You don't like so when I wrote up, I have
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: no clue when it's gonna refresh. Crazy I see it though.
• 8:30
  Speaker 3: Last week we saw nol Oshmuz. I believe it was
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: Oshmu's on the winner right. It was one of those
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: was it Bruno Silva? Actually because of the fight stack like.
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: I didn't get that right.
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I didn't even look one.
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: Of the one of those dogs that scored like, and
• 8:43
  Speaker 3: it wasn't the pure optimal I'd have to look, I
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: think it was.
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: It wasn't Silva. Silva.
• 8:49
  Speaker 3: I think outscored ash moves, but because Vans scored so well,
• 8:52
  Speaker 3: no one had the fight stack, so the loser there
• 8:55
  Speaker 3: was a loser a thirty points on the winner or
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: thirty three points. I wouldn't be shocked if that happened
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: again on this card with so many big favorites. And
• 9:03
  Speaker 3: if that's the case, I think Vanessa has the best
• 9:05
  Speaker 3: chance out of all of them because it's the most
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: likely to go the distance. So I think Vanessa wins
• 9:10
  Speaker 3: and score sixty. I think she's optimal one hundred percent. No,
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: but I just hate all the other dogs, and it
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: would allow you to pay for well makers won ten
• 9:19
  Speaker 3: for Mansu Updul Maleak's one fifteen, for Buckley's one fifteen
• 9:24
  Speaker 3: like a stars and scrubs that way. So I think
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: any wins probably optimal at the price. And if no
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: dogs win, she's one of the few very like really
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: big dogs, very cheap that's supposed to go all fifteen minutes.
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: Most of the other ones are going to probably get
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: knocked out in less than seven minutes and score a
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: lot less. So for all those reasons, I'm just naturally
• 9:43
  Speaker 3: gonna have Vanessa, and I very well might be overweight to.
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: The field on Vanessa. So that's my thoughts there. Do
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: I like it?
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: No, but I could see it being a card with
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: so many big favorites only two mid tier fights. We
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: have something similar to last week. We're thirty thirty five
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: point sixty nine hundred dollars. Fighter ends up being optimal.
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: All right, we'll keep it rolling. Next fight on the
• 10:04
  Speaker 3: card Os Lusa minus one forty three taking on Phil
• 10:08
  Speaker 3: Row plus one twenty three plus one ninety five for
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: this fight to finish, Row the underdog plus three to
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: fifty inside the distance, Lusa plus four to twenty five
• 10:17
  Speaker 3: inside the distance. We've seen some line movement on this one,
• 10:20
  Speaker 3: so it opened Phil Row minus one thirty five. Now
• 10:23
  Speaker 3: we've got Ons Lusa minus four one forty three, so
• 10:26
  Speaker 3: complete line flip and some for Lusa.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: Do you agree with the line movement? What are you
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: doing in this fight?
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: Yeah? I do agree with it.
• 10:34
  Speaker 4: I think that Lusa is just our better minute winner
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: in this one. He's our more active striker, he's our
• 10:41
  Speaker 4: more likely and better wrestler in my opinion, and this
• 10:45
  Speaker 4: is the fight where I do think it goes the decision.
• 10:47
  Speaker 4: So with it going the distance, LUSA should be favored
• 10:50
  Speaker 4: to win. Phil Row, though might have the higher ceiling
• 10:54
  Speaker 4: because all ten of his wins are finishes, and if
• 10:57
  Speaker 4: he is gonna win this fight, I feel like it
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: would be finish. But I just don't think he's that
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: good so and Lousa's tough, so I really don't want
• 11:05
  Speaker 4: too much Row and he's zero and four to decisions,
• 11:10
  Speaker 4: so it just makes me like LUSA just that much more.
• 11:12
  Speaker 4: I don't love eighty four hundred dollars, but I'm not
• 11:15
  Speaker 4: gonna completely get away from it.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: I got this as a two star.
• 11:18
  Speaker 4: Usually for me, a two star or something I'm not targeting,
• 11:21
  Speaker 4: but I'm okay with it in my lineup.
• 11:23
  Speaker 2: And with it three and three.
• 11:25
  Speaker 4: This is one where I would probably just lean towards
• 11:29
  Speaker 4: the lower owned fighter as my preferred play, but Lusa
• 11:32
  Speaker 4: is my pick to win because I think it goes
• 11:34
  Speaker 4: all three rounds.
• 11:36
  Speaker 3: Do you like this bit tier fight more or do
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: you like again? There's only two on the card Lusa,
• 11:41
  Speaker 3: Phil Rowe, Barcellos, garbrand.
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: I take it.
• 11:44
  Speaker 3: This fight's supposed to finish at minus one twenty five.
• 11:46
  Speaker 3: This fight's plus one eighty. You have three star, two star,
• 11:49
  Speaker 3: so you like the Guarbrand fight more.
• 11:52
  Speaker 4: I like Barcellos this fight, and then going to that
• 11:56
  Speaker 4: I like it.
• 11:56
  Speaker 3: That's a great answer, and I'm in agreement. When you
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: look at the tier kings, I'll have Barcelos won these two,
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: and then I'll have Cody. I don't know my preferred
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: side in this one. Because of that six hundred dollars
• 12:07
  Speaker 3: savings on a card that I struggle leaving money, I
• 12:11
  Speaker 3: struggle finding value I like, and he like.
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Plus one twenty.
• 12:15
  Speaker 3: Three money line at seventy eight hundred on this card
• 12:18
  Speaker 3: is phenomenal. So I guess, just naturally for all those reasons,
• 12:21
  Speaker 3: I think I'll take the savings at phil Row. But
• 12:24
  Speaker 3: like you see on the stone, like Big Marley was saying,
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: the volume clear as day, LUSA takedowns LUSA like he
• 12:30
  Speaker 3: has all the yeah, the upside for finishing. Like you see,
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: Phil Row is more likely to finish, but LUSA can
• 12:36
  Speaker 3: get there in a decision, which is so much volume
• 12:39
  Speaker 3: takedowns if he just starts breaking phil Row. But again,
• 12:42
  Speaker 3: because of the six hundred savings and because of the
• 12:44
  Speaker 3: inside the distance prop on a card that salary's tight,
• 12:47
  Speaker 3: I think naturally Phil Row is my preferred play but
• 12:50
  Speaker 3: it's close, and I don't love the fight. I will
• 12:52
  Speaker 3: have a lot of stars and scrubbs. Mid tier is
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: not great this week, just like last week. All right,
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: next fight on the card. We have a replacement. As
• 13:01
  Speaker 3: you can see, why are these prices eighty seven hundred
• 13:03
  Speaker 3: and sixty five hundred Again DraftKings just goes.
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: It's always the same.
• 13:07
  Speaker 3: Eighty seven's almost always lined up with seventy five hundred
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: short notice replacement. Ricky Simone originally was supposed to fight
• 13:14
  Speaker 3: Charles Jordayne. What a banger that would have been out?
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: Is Jordaine? In? Is Cameron Smotherman now minus five hundred
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: open minus three fifty yesterday when this fight was announced,
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: now minus five hundred, So he's taken some money.
• 13:28
  Speaker 1: Smotherman plus three seventy five on the way back.
• 13:31
  Speaker 3: The only prop I see on fight odds right now
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: is under two and a half and that is minus
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: one thirty five. That opened plus one thirty nine big Marley,
• 13:39
  Speaker 3: So talk about a complete flip open. This fight was
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: supposed to go the distance. A lot of money came
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: in on under two and a half. Now the fight
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: is expected to finish again. That's the only prop I
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: see all I know looking at it. If I see
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: Ricky someone minus five hundred in a fight expected to finish,
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: there is a lot, a lot of upside on the
• 13:58
  Speaker 3: Simone side, as you can say, the wrestling for days
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: and he's taken on a striker. So do you see
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: five plus takedowns in a big score for Simone? Are
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: you playing any Smotherman? What are we doing?
• 14:09
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna try to get away from Smotherman. I
• 14:12
  Speaker 4: just he would just be an ownership only play where
• 14:16
  Speaker 4: you hope he gets the knockout to kill off fifty
• 14:19
  Speaker 4: percent of the field that are on Simone, and you
• 14:21
  Speaker 4: get Smotherman at sub ten percent and you can maybe
• 14:24
  Speaker 4: take down one hundred k solo. This is usually not
• 14:27
  Speaker 4: my type of play. I don't think he's that good
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: of a striker. I think Simone can win this fight
• 14:31
  Speaker 4: on the feet, but Smotherman has to have this fight
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: stay on the feet in order to have any chance.
• 14:37
  Speaker 4: But Simone's just such a better wrestler. He could push
• 14:39
  Speaker 4: a pace for fifteen minutes and I think he's gonna
• 14:42
  Speaker 4: just clearly win thirty twenty seven. If he's not able
• 14:45
  Speaker 4: to get a finished first, he'd I think his last
• 14:48
  Speaker 4: three wins are all finishes, and his last four of
• 14:52
  Speaker 4: his last five wins are finishes, So yeah, maybe maybe
• 14:56
  Speaker 4: the sub is more in play. I picked him by decision,
• 14:59
  Speaker 4: but I might end up changing that to a submission here.
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: But I like Simone a decent amount.
• 15:03
  Speaker 4: I don't know how much leverage I'll get over the field,
• 15:07
  Speaker 4: but for me, it's it's probably Simone or pass on
• 15:10
  Speaker 4: this one.
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's definitely some owner pass for me. And I'm
• 15:13
  Speaker 3: looking right now at our projected ownership. Obviously it changes.
• 15:17
  Speaker 3: We have Simone as the highest owned fighter on the slate,
• 15:19
  Speaker 3: and I agree a lot of that has to do
• 15:21
  Speaker 3: like he's just five hundred and six hundred dollars too
• 15:24
  Speaker 3: cheap for one of the best DFL not one of
• 15:27
  Speaker 3: I mean, he's one of the better DFS fighters out
• 15:29
  Speaker 3: there because of his takedown upside, his pace he can
• 15:32
  Speaker 3: push hasn't been the best for him in the past
• 15:35
  Speaker 3: or recently. A couple of tough losses like Venetius Oliver
• 15:38
  Speaker 3: Era Man, that dude. That dude's nice, but he humbled Simone.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: A little bit.
• 15:43
  Speaker 3: But Man, minus five hundred a lot of money coming
• 15:46
  Speaker 3: in on the under for Ricky Simone's style, like he
• 15:49
  Speaker 3: is gonna be chalky and rightfully, so it's I'm gonna
• 15:52
  Speaker 3: eat a lot of that chalk as well, naturally, just
• 15:54
  Speaker 3: because let me see, yeah, I'm playing some smother man,
• 15:58
  Speaker 3: just because of Simone's ownership. And he's plus three seventy five,
• 16:02
  Speaker 3: like we're gonna get to Chris Matinho, he's plus one thousand,
• 16:05
  Speaker 3: we're gonna get to a Lonzo Manfield, plus five hundred
• 16:08
  Speaker 3: brundage plus five, plus five fifty, So plus three seventy
• 16:12
  Speaker 3: five for the price tag is actually money line value
• 16:15
  Speaker 3: compared to others in the range. And he's the most
• 16:18
  Speaker 3: leverage or one of the most leverage off of probably
• 16:21
  Speaker 3: the chalkiest fighter on the slate in Simon. So for
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: that reason, I'm gonna end up overweight on this fight.
• 16:26
  Speaker 3: Probably I'm gonna eat Simone chalk and just on a
• 16:29
  Speaker 3: card I don't like many dogs, I might as well
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: try and get all the leverage in the world and
• 16:34
  Speaker 3: the solid money line.
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: So I like this fight.
• 16:36
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be a probably one of my more overweight
• 16:40
  Speaker 3: fights on the card.
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: It's not a fun click and smotherman.
• 16:42
  Speaker 3: But if he says like Big Marley said a lot
• 16:45
  Speaker 3: better chance at a solo shipper of one hundred k five.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: Dupes, you're last, etc. All right, we'll keep it rolling.
• 16:51
  Speaker 3: Appreciate everyone hanging out, watching live, watching on playback again.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: All we ask is the like button and the subscribe button.
• 16:57
  Speaker 3: It helps us out. A ton o say which a
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: minus one ninety three taken on Cody Dirt and plus
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: one sixty eight minus won twenty five for this fight
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: to finish Jose plus one fifty inside of this sence
• 17:09
  Speaker 3: Cody Dirton plus three sixty take it away.
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: Pretty good fight to target.
• 17:13
  Speaker 3: In my opinion, I'm a little surprised you have it
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: as a three star, so talk to me.
• 17:18
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I have it as a three star because I'm
• 17:20
  Speaker 4: just not too interested in the oho A side of
• 17:23
  Speaker 4: this one. I am interested in dirtin though he's an underdog,
• 17:27
  Speaker 4: I plan on being overweight two. Not because I'm confident
• 17:30
  Speaker 4: he's gonna go out there and win, but he's at
• 17:33
  Speaker 4: seventy six hundred, just an underdog that I know will
• 17:35
  Speaker 4: fight for my money. This fight is in Atlanta, that's
• 17:38
  Speaker 4: in Durden's backyard. Dirden can hang on the feet just
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: volume wise, he will push a pace on the feet.
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: He's just gonna be outclassed by Ocho if this is
• 17:48
  Speaker 4: a striking match, and Ochoa could knock him out, but
• 17:52
  Speaker 4: I feel like you would probably twenty nine to twenty eight.
• 17:55
  Speaker 4: I'm thirty twenty seven of them if this was a
• 17:56
  Speaker 4: striking match. But Dirden should go out there and to wrestle.
• 18:00
  Speaker 4: I mean, he should attempt ten plus takedowns in this fight,
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: and if he's able to do that, I think he's
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: super live to win. And if he does win, he's
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: gonna score more than ten x and he might score
• 18:10
  Speaker 4: more than one hundred points and where it becomes a
• 18:12
  Speaker 4: no dirt and no cash type of night. So I
• 18:14
  Speaker 4: want dirten in a good amount of my lineups. He'll
• 18:17
  Speaker 4: be one of my favorite underdogs to pick on the card.
• 18:21
  Speaker 4: But Oho does have the higher ceiling in the sport.
• 18:24
  Speaker 4: He's ten years younger. Usually the ten years younger fighter
• 18:28
  Speaker 4: wins like sixty seven percent of the time, So the
• 18:31
  Speaker 4: odds are stacked against dirtin but man in Atlanta, the
• 18:34
  Speaker 4: crowd's gonna be behind him. I'm gonna be behind him,
• 18:37
  Speaker 4: so I'll be rooting for him. So go Dirt and
• 18:40
  Speaker 4: I'll be overweight to him underweight to Ojo.
• 18:44
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean Durdin's a very easy play like underdog
• 18:47
  Speaker 3: stink dirt In had look at that four point oh
• 18:49
  Speaker 3: six takedowns per fifteen minutes. He'll definitely fight for your dollar,
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: pushes the pace. If he wins on a card where
• 18:56
  Speaker 3: dogs are tough, more than likely optimal. However, with that
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: being said, I think that results in him being one
• 19:01
  Speaker 3: of the highest owned underdogs on the slates. And it
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: looks like from a projected ownership and what I'm seeing,
• 19:07
  Speaker 3: Ochoa will be one of the lowest owned in the
• 19:09
  Speaker 3: upper tier. The reason for that, right one hundred above Ochoa,
• 19:13
  Speaker 3: Ricky Simone, Everyone's gonna click the button Ricky Simone. Right
• 19:16
  Speaker 3: under Achoa is Riyoni Barcelos. I think Barcellos is a
• 19:21
  Speaker 3: decent bit higher on. He's a bigger favor right now,
• 19:24
  Speaker 3: better inside the distance. Actually, a Choa has a better
• 19:26
  Speaker 3: inside the distance prop but Barcellos has the wrestling upside
• 19:30
  Speaker 3: for one hundred cheaper.
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: And then we go two hundred more than a Choa.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: Edmond Schamazian.
• 19:35
  Speaker 3: I think Edmund will be chalkier one hundred more than
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: Edmund or two hundred more than Edmund is Buckley, so
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: all those guys will be higher on than that. I
• 19:43
  Speaker 3: even think LUSA and might be higher on than a
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: Choa for the savings. So no one, not no one.
• 19:49
  Speaker 3: He's going to be a lot lower owned than everyone
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: in the tier. And he's plus one point fifty inside
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: the distance, Like that's a really solid number. Dirden will
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: push a pace. A Choa can knock him out. If
• 19:59
  Speaker 3: he knocks him, you have one of the highest owned
• 20:01
  Speaker 3: underdogs losing leverage. Off of that and a pivot in
• 20:05
  Speaker 3: a pretty popular tier. You can easily easily get a
• 20:09
  Speaker 3: five DUP plus lineup or something leaving one hundred bucks,
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: and the show is the way you get different. Another thing,
• 20:15
  Speaker 3: the reason I like Atchoa. He opened plus one fifty five.
• 20:18
  Speaker 3: He's now minus one ninety three. Plenty of money has
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: came in on a Choa sense open. So again, Durden's
• 20:24
  Speaker 3: just the what Durden's like Ricky Simone. There's just no
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: reason you would not play him in twenty teams, Like
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: you'd be really dumb not to. It's what do you
• 20:33
  Speaker 3: do when you play him? Because it's so clear they're
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: upside with wrestling. But if he doesn't win and Achoa wins.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: How does that happen? Could easily be knockout, price takes good,
• 20:43
  Speaker 3: easy to leave money with them, good inside the distance,
• 20:45
  Speaker 3: good ownership, leverage.
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: It just all checks out for me.
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: So two fights in a row that I'm gonna probably
• 20:51
  Speaker 3: be overweight on these fights, Simone Dirten the easy clicks,
• 20:55
  Speaker 3: smotherman in aachoa, pivots and.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: Leverage off of chalk ear fighters.
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: All right, next fight on the car biggest favorites, I
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: mean he might close one of the biggest favorites in
• 21:05
  Speaker 3: UFC history. Malcolm Wallmaker minus two thousand taking on Chris
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: Mattinio plus one thousand, fight to finish minus six hundred
• 21:13
  Speaker 3: well Maker inside the distance minus five hundred Mattino inside
• 21:17
  Speaker 3: the distance plus one excuse me, plus one thousand well
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: Maker in round one minus one twenty. What's going on, Marquee?
• 21:25
  Speaker 3: Hope you're doing well? I mean, yeah, it's it's murdered.
• 21:28
  Speaker 3: Shout out to Matinal for getting his way back to
• 21:30
  Speaker 3: the UFC. But yeah, I mean minus two thousand. I
• 21:34
  Speaker 3: guess at what what do you want while.
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: Maker to score? To play him?
• 21:38
  Speaker 3: How do you compare him to Monsieur to Omar size,
• 21:43
  Speaker 3: the world and yeah, I mean, I know you're picking.
• 21:46
  Speaker 3: I know you're a picking well Maker and you're not
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: playing Matinial, so talk about stuff like that.
• 21:51
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I would want probably at least one ten, ideally
• 21:55
  Speaker 4: more closer.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: To the one twenty. You're really hoping he get knocks
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: him out.
• 21:59
  Speaker 4: In that first it probably because if he doesn't knock
• 22:02
  Speaker 4: him out in the first round, I just don't think
• 22:05
  Speaker 4: he's gonna be on the optimal lineup unless it's like
• 22:07
  Speaker 4: a Josh Van where he gets three knockdowns in route
• 22:10
  Speaker 4: to the finish. I'm definitely gonna play him, though I don't.
• 22:15
  Speaker 4: I'd say my ranking would be Abdua Malik, then well Maker,
• 22:20
  Speaker 4: then uh oh Marc. But I like all three of them,
• 22:25
  Speaker 4: so I'll just kind of see what Sabersim gives me.
• 22:28
  Speaker 2: I'm not gonna I don't think I'm gonna handbuild this week.
• 22:30
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna let it do its thing, and I'll
• 22:33
  Speaker 4: I'll be anywhere from twenty to fifty, i'd imagine. But yeah,
• 22:38
  Speaker 4: well Makers is gonna be so much better. They're bringing
• 22:39
  Speaker 4: Mutino in to lose. This is in well Maker's backyard
• 22:43
  Speaker 4: after he's coming off that big first round win over
• 22:45
  Speaker 4: a much better fighter than Chris Mutino.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: So he's gonna be hyped up.
• 22:49
  Speaker 4: He's gonna be looking to take this kid's head off,
• 22:51
  Speaker 4: and I think he is gonna knock him out in
• 22:53
  Speaker 4: the first round. I'm not gonna play any Mutino at all.
• 22:56
  Speaker 4: I just don't see how he wins this fight unless,
• 22:58
  Speaker 4: like well, Maker just cracks under the pressure. But this
• 23:01
  Speaker 4: should be a free be win wise, it's just ninety
• 23:04
  Speaker 4: eight hundred. It's a really tough price to pay, and
• 23:06
  Speaker 4: we need him to get either a first minute knockout
• 23:10
  Speaker 4: or probably at last minute knockout in that first round
• 23:14
  Speaker 4: so we can get all the striking points and knockdowns
• 23:16
  Speaker 4: along the way for him to make the OPTI Mi Lina,
• 23:18
  Speaker 4: but I just think he's he probably gets that first
• 23:21
  Speaker 4: round knockout. Although it's like minus one twenty for him
• 23:24
  Speaker 4: to win in round one, I might bet, to be honest.
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: With you, it was minus one thirty and actually some
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: juice on the on the over so it went down
• 23:31
  Speaker 3: to minus one twenty. I agree, I think he does
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: it too. Yeah, it really just comes like and that's
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: kind of why I'm saying about Vanessa Demopolis all the
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: way down there, Like, imagine she scores thirty, but we
• 23:41
  Speaker 3: have well Makers score one twenty two, Abdua Malise score
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: one to nineteen, and then it's like, yeah, like Loosa's
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: win right here, scores seventy two, but Tamopola scored thirty
• 23:53
  Speaker 3: five in a loss or something. And then you just
• 23:55
  Speaker 3: have the salary game where those upper tier dude just
• 23:57
  Speaker 3: completely shattered some of those other guys up top. There's
• 24:01
  Speaker 3: plenty of big favorites and expected first round finishes. You're
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: gonna see a lot of big scores up top, just
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: like last week, like you saw yogat the first round finish,
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: you saw a rob absolutely smashed. Harrison was nowhere to
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: be found with like one fifteen or something. Sal killed
• 24:16
  Speaker 3: who I got, Like we picked him to win, but
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: I hardly had any in DFS one seventeen. I don't
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: think that was on the winner. Joshua Van scored amazing.
• 24:24
  Speaker 3: I can see it as a very similar card with
• 24:26
  Speaker 3: the upper tier being so loaded. But yeah, I'm gonna
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: play some well well Maker and Monsieur pretty much tied
• 24:31
  Speaker 3: for me, and then size down below. I do love
• 24:34
  Speaker 3: those two and look at them a little better than
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: side personally all right, next fight on the card, Michael
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: kiy said, minus three fifty taken on Court McGee plus
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: two eighty five plus one twenty fi this fight to
• 24:46
  Speaker 3: finish case of plus one seventy five inside the distance
• 24:49
  Speaker 3: Court McGee plus five twenty five my man Marquis. Last
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: week when I was watching the UFC or watching the card,
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: I looked ahead at the odds. This was the one
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: that stood out to me. I just couldn't wrap my
• 25:03
  Speaker 3: head around Michael Kiyasa being a minus three fifty favorite.
• 25:07
  Speaker 3: I just remember recently people picking Tony Ferguson to beat
• 25:10
  Speaker 3: Michael Kiyasa two fights ago, and now he's a minus
• 25:14
  Speaker 3: three fifty favorite against I mean, I'm signing up for
• 25:16
  Speaker 3: Court Magee against Tony Ferguson. I'm signing anyone pretty much
• 25:20
  Speaker 3: against Tony Ferguson. And then yeah, he beats Max Griffin,
• 25:23
  Speaker 3: but minus three fifty for a primary wrestler, grappler that
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: if he can't get it down to the mat, who
• 25:29
  Speaker 3: knows how it looks on a card. I don't like
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: many dogs. I'm picking Court McGee. He's one of my
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: favorites down there. Do I love his upside? No? Not really,
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: but again, I'll sign up for fifty for sixty for
• 25:41
  Speaker 3: any win on this card. Give me Court McGee in
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: this one. He has a black belt, his takedown defense
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: is solid. If CASA can't get it to the mat,
• 25:49
  Speaker 3: I am not sure how he looks minus three fifty
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: by any means. Give me the junkyard dog in court.
• 25:54
  Speaker 3: Obviously old man at forty. Yes, I ain't young himself though,
• 25:59
  Speaker 3: at thirty seven years So yeah, Court McGee, baby, that's
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: what I got.
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: What about you?
• 26:05
  Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, Court McGee.
• 26:06
  Speaker 4: I already bet Court McGee, let's go. I think there's
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: still value at his current line. Chiesa already retired. I mean,
• 26:15
  Speaker 4: he's good at one thing. If this fight starts with
• 26:19
  Speaker 4: him in top control, he can just grind out that
• 26:21
  Speaker 4: entire round. Probably yeah, but he's got to get there first,
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: and he's not a very good wrestler. I think Court
• 26:25
  Speaker 4: McGee could be, maybe not the better wrestler. He's not
• 26:30
  Speaker 4: gonna be trying to take Chiesa down, I don't think,
• 26:32
  Speaker 4: but he could just use his wrestling to stay on.
• 26:34
  Speaker 2: The feet or get back to the feet.
• 26:38
  Speaker 4: Sean Brady had two takedowns on Court McGee had less
• 26:41
  Speaker 4: than a minute of total control time. And Chiesa is
• 26:45
  Speaker 4: a way worse wrestler than Sean Brady, and McGee's gonna
• 26:49
  Speaker 4: be the better striker in this one, even at forty
• 26:51
  Speaker 4: years old. Chessa wouldn't shock me to see him give
• 26:55
  Speaker 4: up if he ate a body shot or something like
• 26:57
  Speaker 4: that and he's off, the wrestling's not going his way.
• 27:00
  Speaker 4: So yeah, I'm gonna be underweight Chiesa for sure. I
• 27:03
  Speaker 4: would fade him with less than twenty lineups. I don't know.
• 27:06
  Speaker 4: I don't know my twenty to fifty fould into fading
• 27:09
  Speaker 4: him or not, because he is allowed to go around
• 27:10
  Speaker 4: ten next if he wins. But I just don't think
• 27:12
  Speaker 4: you're gonna control Court McGee or submit him. I don't
• 27:16
  Speaker 4: think he's ever been submitted before. And Chessa is not
• 27:19
  Speaker 4: the best grappler of all time. It wouldn't shock me
• 27:21
  Speaker 4: to see Court submit Chiesa in this one. So I
• 27:24
  Speaker 4: would be overweight Court McGee underweight. Let's go Ben underweight
• 27:29
  Speaker 4: to Chiessa for sure.
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: I'm getting a little scared.
• 27:32
  Speaker 3: I did not expect to everyone here in the panel,
• 27:35
  Speaker 3: you and I and a couple in chat on Court,
• 27:37
  Speaker 3: but again, looking at it, Saturday, scrolling through the odds,
• 27:40
  Speaker 3: I'll stay with my man Siggy.
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: I'm like, man, Court McGee, this.
• 27:44
  Speaker 3: Big of a dog against k That's just the one
• 27:46
  Speaker 3: line that set out to me, and it's not very
• 27:48
  Speaker 3: often I'm saying that about like plus two seventy five underdogs.
• 27:51
  Speaker 3: But yeah, give me Court McGee, I'll probably be under Kiysu.
• 27:55
  Speaker 3: But with that being said, let me pull up ownership
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: quick to make sure I'm not saying thing crazy. Yeah,
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: Like he's gonna be lower owned than Buckley, than Edmund,
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: than Ballato, than Side than Monsour, than well Maker, than Simone.
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: Like he's gonna be one of the lowest owned in
• 28:11
  Speaker 3: that tier. Is a guy that wants to wrestle from
• 28:14
  Speaker 3: the get go with solid pressure on top.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: But I don't know because.
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: You you're saying like he's not gonna submit Michael Kiyasa,
• 28:23
  Speaker 3: or he's not gonna one of my talking about case
• 28:25
  Speaker 3: is not gonna submit Court McGee. But I'm looking his
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: subs prop is plus two hundred and inside the distance
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: is plus one seventy five when you compare that to
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: his ownership alone. I'm gonna play some. I know I'm
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: gonna play some even though I'm picking against him, but
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna like, if I had thirty percent, I'll move
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: it down. I don't know what i'd move it down
• 28:44
  Speaker 3: to twenty five twenty. I'm gonna use some I know
• 28:46
  Speaker 3: fights in court here, but with how low owned he
• 28:49
  Speaker 3: is compared to everyone else, with the plus one seventy
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: five inside the distance, prop is a minus three fifty
• 28:54
  Speaker 3: favorite as a guy that's gonna try and wrestle the
• 28:56
  Speaker 3: whole fight. When you say all of it like that,
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: I think you can do work. So definitely still Court McGee.
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: I'll probably be underwrat Kisa, but I'm not fading by
• 29:04
  Speaker 3: any means, and the reason also for that, I'm not
• 29:07
  Speaker 3: playing Jamie Lyn Horth at ninety four hundred, I'm not
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: playing Rosenama Unis at ninety one hundred. So I already
• 29:12
  Speaker 3: have two fades up top. I think I'm fine if you.
• 29:15
  Speaker 3: If I did need a third up top, though, it
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: would be Michael Kisa. So that's how I see it
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: right there. If I was fading a third person up there,
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: Kesa is my third least favorite, but I'll probably get
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: a sprinkle.
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: I'll be cheering for Court McGee, all right, we'll keep
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: it rolling.
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: Next fight on the card, Rodolfo Blotto minus four hundred
• 29:33
  Speaker 3: taken on Paul Craig plus three hundred, minus five hundred
• 29:37
  Speaker 3: for this fight to finish, Botto minus two to seventy
• 29:39
  Speaker 3: five inside the distance, Paul Craig plus four to seventy
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: five inside the distance Bloato in round one excuse me,
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: plus one twenty five. So people are probably like, hey,
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: I think I seen this matchup before Janus Fermor May seventeenth.
• 29:55
  Speaker 3: We're supposed to get this fight. Lock already happened. We're
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: watching the fights. The next thing you know, out is Blatto.
• 30:02
  Speaker 3: Turns out it was herpes. The rumor on the street,
• 30:05
  Speaker 3: it sounds like, I think confirmed. I don't know if
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: that's ever someone's had to pull out due to herpes. Again,
• 30:10
  Speaker 3: with all that being said, though, now it's rebooked, what
• 30:14
  Speaker 3: were the.
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: I want to see? I think I wrote it down b.
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: Lotto is minus four to ten when that fight got called,
• 30:21
  Speaker 3: and then when I wrote these odds up on Monday,
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: it was minus three fifty. But now Blotto's minus four hundred,
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: so it's getting back closer to where it closed at
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: last time, when it was gonna go. But I found
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: that interesting that a lotto is less of a favorite
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: week's after like, nothing really changed from it, and I saw
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: I don't think he's affected by herpes, so I was
• 30:40
  Speaker 3: a little surprised by that. But the line's pretty much
• 30:43
  Speaker 3: the same as it was. What are you doing Blotto?
• 30:45
  Speaker 1: Paul Crakt.
• 30:47
  Speaker 4: I'm just gonna load up on it, like I did
• 30:49
  Speaker 4: the time it was pulled after lock. It's never the
• 30:52
  Speaker 4: f It's never the fight I'm fade and that gets
• 30:54
  Speaker 4: pulled back. It's always the one I'm I'm all over, dude,
• 30:57
  Speaker 4: or like uh freaking brundage man, the one they like
• 31:02
  Speaker 4: the back of the head and then they win.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: That's never me winning, dude. It's always me losing.
• 31:06
  Speaker 4: So one of these days it'll actually win me the card,
• 31:10
  Speaker 4: but it hadn't happened yet. But yeah, I'm just gonna
• 31:14
  Speaker 4: load up on it. I think I'll be on both
• 31:16
  Speaker 4: sides pretty heavily. I would imagine I have more exposure
• 31:20
  Speaker 4: to Ballato. He's gonna be our better striker, probably gets
• 31:23
  Speaker 4: a knockout at some point, but I might have more
• 31:26
  Speaker 4: leverage to Craig because Craig is live to score one
• 31:30
  Speaker 4: hundred points in this fight. If he can get a
• 31:32
  Speaker 4: takedown in the first round, every Ballatto better is gonna
• 31:35
  Speaker 4: be puckered up real hard at that point. So I
• 31:38
  Speaker 4: think it could be a dominant win for Craig if
• 31:40
  Speaker 4: that's the case.
• 31:42
  Speaker 2: So I do want Craig.
• 31:43
  Speaker 4: I'll probably have at least twenty percent, to be honest,
• 31:46
  Speaker 4: and I might be over thirty percent, but I do
• 31:50
  Speaker 4: want to be over thirty percent Blatto. I think he
• 31:52
  Speaker 4: does get the knockout at some point because Craig's not
• 31:55
  Speaker 4: a good wrestler, that's the issue. He's probably got to
• 31:57
  Speaker 4: grab a leg and just hope that Ballada doesn't have
• 32:00
  Speaker 4: good balance, and if he can get him to the
• 32:01
  Speaker 4: ground once, that could be all that it takes.
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: I'll load up on this one.
• 32:05
  Speaker 4: I'll probably have it in A good eighty percent or
• 32:07
  Speaker 4: so of my lineup's picking Blatta to win.
• 32:11
  Speaker 2: But I might be rooting for Craig.
• 32:13
  Speaker 3: Yeah no that if you're gonna have twenty to thirty
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: percent Craig, I think you will be rooting for Paul Craig.
• 32:19
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna play both now. I think Blotto knocks him
• 32:22
  Speaker 3: out in the first round. He's a scary, scary big
• 32:25
  Speaker 3: boy as you can see six three seventy five inch
• 32:28
  Speaker 3: reach and you can see Craig's big two. But I
• 32:31
  Speaker 3: mean Craig is he's just a grappler. He'll pull guard,
• 32:34
  Speaker 3: he'll do whatever he can to get to the fight,
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: to the mat. And when it's down there, it's scary
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: hours for sure. But when it's on the feet, Craig eats,
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: punches with his face. Plato hits hard. I think Craig
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: gets sat down and Blotto breaks the slate. And that's
• 32:47
  Speaker 3: kind of why we're talking. Like Rose Jamie elyn Horth
• 32:50
  Speaker 3: Casa would be a fade if I had a third one,
• 32:53
  Speaker 3: because it's really hard for me to see that all
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: them outscoring at Blotto. And then it's not just Blotto,
• 32:58
  Speaker 3: it's Buckley, it's sigh a leak, Ricky Simo. And like
• 33:02
  Speaker 3: it's such a strong upper tier. Polato scores one oh
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: three very well might not be enough this week. That
• 33:07
  Speaker 3: just shows how good the upper tier is. Paul Craig,
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: on the other hand, some leverage off of Palato, his
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: ownership's gonna stay in check. We have him actually decently high,
• 33:17
  Speaker 3: which I agree with. I guess like he's gonna be
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: higher than Vanessa Manifield, Brundage, et cetera.
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: But yeah, his upsides high.
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: I'll probably have more ballatto to the field when it's
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: all said and done. But it's a good fight to
• 33:29
  Speaker 3: target for sure. Fingers crossed. No shenanigans happen again this
• 33:33
  Speaker 3: week with it all right.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card.
• 33:37
  Speaker 3: Another huge favorites Omar Si minus seven hundred taking on
• 33:41
  Speaker 3: Alonzo Manifield plus five hundred minus two fifty for this
• 33:45
  Speaker 3: fight to finish sigh and minus one sixty inside the
• 33:47
  Speaker 3: distance Manifield plus five hundred PI round one plus two
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: twenty five.
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna have you take it away. But one thing
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: I wanted.
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: To say, Pi with his props. All three methods the
• 34:01
  Speaker 3: victory are pretty similar. Decision plus two to fifty, KO
• 34:05
  Speaker 3: plus two seventy five, submission plus one sixty.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Do you have any lean on that? How do you
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: see this fight going? What are you doing.
• 34:16
  Speaker 4: On his method of victory? I don't know, man, I
• 34:19
  Speaker 4: was struggling on that too. I don't know what the
• 34:21
  Speaker 4: hell he could win by any method. I think that
• 34:24
  Speaker 4: a decision is what I picked, so that would be
• 34:27
  Speaker 4: what I mean to.
• 34:29
  Speaker 3: It's crazy though, minus seven hundred favorite having nothing better
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: than plus one fifty, and you know what I mean.
• 34:35
  Speaker 3: That just shows like it's who knows how this fight's
• 34:38
  Speaker 3: gonna go.
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: I guess he's druck last time. For the most part.
• 34:41
  Speaker 3: He seems to be a primary wrestler when I looked
• 34:43
  Speaker 3: at him for the most part, Like, I think he
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: can pretty much win wherever. Can he take Menifield down?
• 34:49
  Speaker 3: Menifield strong? Yeah, take it away, This one's interesting.
• 34:53
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I do think he's better than Minifield everywhere. Minifield's
• 34:57
  Speaker 4: a beast. He could knock out See for sure and
• 35:01
  Speaker 4: score one hundred and ten points and just break the slate.
• 35:04
  Speaker 4: For I think he's very live. I will have Minifield lineups.
• 35:09
  Speaker 4: I don't know about very live very live to break
• 35:11
  Speaker 4: the slate, let's say. But I do think C is
• 35:14
  Speaker 4: just more talented, bigger, can dictate where the fight takes place.
• 35:18
  Speaker 4: He's probably gonna be higher volume on the feet if
• 35:21
  Speaker 4: he can land takedowns. Minifield's not gonna have anything to offer.
• 35:24
  Speaker 2: Off of his back. So I just see.
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: C getting takedowns because that's his safest path to victory here.
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: Why even play with fire on the feet, get takedowns
• 35:35
  Speaker 4: and then you're okay. And if that's the case, he
• 35:38
  Speaker 4: could outscore a Moleak and a well Maker if their
• 35:41
  Speaker 4: first round knockouts, and See can get three rounds of
• 35:44
  Speaker 4: wrestling and ground strikes in this one. So I would
• 35:47
  Speaker 4: be okay being overweight to See if that's what it
• 35:50
  Speaker 4: gives me. And he is cheaper so it'll be easier
• 35:53
  Speaker 4: to get to him. But he's just in that same
• 35:55
  Speaker 4: pool with well Maker and Abdua Malik. For me, I'm
• 35:58
  Speaker 4: gonna be using a bunch of all of them.
• 36:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think I'm gonna I know for a fact,
• 36:04
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna have less c than than Monsieur. And I
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: guess I shouldn't say for a fact I haven't built
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: my teams. I'll build them Saturday, I want, I know,
• 36:12
  Speaker 3: in a vacuum my brain, I prefer Monsieur. I prefer
• 36:17
  Speaker 3: well Maker. With all that being said, I think the
• 36:20
  Speaker 3: field will too, though. And if that's the case, like
• 36:25
  Speaker 3: if you go Monsieur or if you go well Maker
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: down to sea and you leave that three hundred, that's
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: a way that could cut out like thirty dupes. Again,
• 36:33
  Speaker 3: I really do think people will prefer well Maker and Monsieur,
• 36:37
  Speaker 3: so Sai isn't gonna be low owned, but I think
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: he is will end up being a pivot off of
• 36:41
  Speaker 3: those two to an extent. And if that's the case,
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: in chalk your lineups. Yeah, I'm fine doing that. And
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: you just leave three hundred, two hundred, even one hundred
• 36:49
  Speaker 3: and you don't play Monsieur. That is a way you
• 36:52
  Speaker 3: can get different. But at the end of the day,
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: I'm picking Sea by decision. I think Alonzo's better than Brundage.
• 36:58
  Speaker 3: I think the power as could give See a little
• 37:01
  Speaker 3: concern or he's not gonna go too crazy if he
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: can't get it taken down in the first round or something.
• 37:07
  Speaker 3: He needs a big score at ninety five hundreds, So yeah,
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: the final ownership is really gonna determine.
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: How much c I have.
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: But in a vacuum, give him Monsieur, give me well
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: Maker in the upper tier, probably even give me a blotto.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: I'm picking him my first round finish, and he's cheaper,
• 37:22
  Speaker 3: so yeah, I think See wins.
• 37:25
  Speaker 1: I'm definitely gonna be playing some Menafield two. I don't know,
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: do you have any lean on that. Do you think
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: he's on the chopping block. I haven't seen anything like that.
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: You're a mute.
• 37:38
  Speaker 4: I would think if he loses, he gets one more.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: One more. Yeah, I mean he's given. He's fought anyone.
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: Really, the UFC's wanted, the UFC vet I have no clue.
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: I'm not as good at that stuff. If if someone's
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: ozer to tow on a three fight contract, like sometimes,
• 37:52
  Speaker 3: it's pretty obvious the walking papers are in play.
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure about Menifield this fight. All right. We
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: have five fights left.
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: Big Marley's favorite fighter, Cody Brundage taken on Monsieur Abdul Malik.
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: Malik a big favorite in this one at minus eight hundred,
• 38:09
  Speaker 3: second biggest on the card. Cody Brundage plus five to
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: fifty on the way back minus one thousand for this
• 38:15
  Speaker 3: fight to finish, Abdual minus five to fifty inside the
• 38:18
  Speaker 3: distance Brundage plus six fifty a duel in round one
• 38:22
  Speaker 3: plus one five. Yeah, I mean Abdual by murder. I'm
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: not playing Cody in twenty or less. I think this
• 38:30
  Speaker 3: Monsieur dude is legit. I think he can take him
• 38:34
  Speaker 3: down and give him some nasty ground and pound. I
• 38:36
  Speaker 3: think he'd give him a clean right hand and absolutely
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: sleep brandage. I think whatever he does it'll be dominant.
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: With all that being said, if I was playing one fifty,
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: I would play a little Brundage, And the reason for
• 38:46
  Speaker 3: that is he will give.
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: A couple of big swings early and if he.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Connects, we have little gloves. We have strong dudes. People
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: can go away. And he's very low owned. He'd be
• 38:57
  Speaker 3: a lot of leverage. So I guess I don't even
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: hate in twenty teams you played one or two, I'm
• 39:01
  Speaker 3: not gonna because I really think he loses and I
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: like to use more I know, fights with less teams,
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: but like game theory wise, brundage is totally fine on
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: a card like this. But yeah, I give me monsieur
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: monsieur by murder. What about you?
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: Yeah, And I was saying, now, those things never go
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: my way. My best lineup when he was fighting Alissan
• 39:23
  Speaker 4: actually had Brundage. I feel like I would have the
• 39:25
  Speaker 4: nuts if they gave him the d q WA and
• 39:27
  Speaker 4: I'm like, no way, this is no way. It's finally
• 39:29
  Speaker 4: gonna go in my favorite.
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: Then they made no contest.
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: You've got to be kidding me.
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: I hate Okay, you remind me when you said that.
• 39:36
  Speaker 3: I will always remember Cowboy Seroni pulling out years ago
• 39:40
  Speaker 3: with the tacos, the food poisoning. I would it was
• 39:43
  Speaker 3: a solo lineup, was as spar as a rose card
• 39:46
  Speaker 3: all that. Yeah, I would have just needed the minus
• 39:48
  Speaker 3: two fifty to score like sixty five hundred and fifty
• 39:50
  Speaker 3: k solo shipper.
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: Never, we'll forget that one.
• 39:53
  Speaker 2: Yeah, No, that's my guy, too, Goes. I know that's brutal,
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: but yeah, I mean I'm doing.
• 40:01
  Speaker 4: Malik is just I'm gonna pick him over most of
• 40:04
  Speaker 4: the division. He's just got the style that he could
• 40:06
  Speaker 4: beat a lot of people. He's big, strong, powerful, he
• 40:09
  Speaker 4: can knock you out in the first round. He can
• 40:11
  Speaker 4: overwhelm you with volume, or he could just wrestle you
• 40:15
  Speaker 4: and dominate you on the ground. And he can do
• 40:17
  Speaker 4: any of that to Brundage here. I think he could
• 40:20
  Speaker 4: finish him however he wants to in the first round.
• 40:22
  Speaker 4: I think he could dominate him for three straight rounds.
• 40:25
  Speaker 4: Possibly could submit him along the way. It would not
• 40:28
  Speaker 4: shock me to see Brundage just give up his back
• 40:31
  Speaker 4: and look for his way out here. I'm also afraid
• 40:34
  Speaker 4: of brundage, just seeing this guy all rehydrated backstage and
• 40:38
  Speaker 4: be like, my ankle, Guys, I can't go out there
• 40:41
  Speaker 4: and it's being past locks. I'm not gonna go one
• 40:44
  Speaker 4: hundred percent because of that.
• 40:46
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I love this fight.
• 40:47
  Speaker 4: I would get a little bit of a brundage if
• 40:50
  Speaker 4: I was making one hundred and fifty here. But Malik
• 40:53
  Speaker 4: is probably my favorite play on the card in the
• 40:57
  Speaker 4: upper range, just because he has more ultiple ways to
• 41:00
  Speaker 4: score one hundred and ten, plus just because he's just
• 41:04
  Speaker 4: so much more dominant than Brundage's here. He's still so
• 41:07
  Speaker 4: green that it's like hard, it's hard to trust him
• 41:09
  Speaker 4: as like a minus one thousand, especially when he's gonna
• 41:13
  Speaker 4: be super chucky. But I think he could be a
• 41:17
  Speaker 4: champion in the next two years. So I'll be picking
• 41:19
  Speaker 4: him probably every time he is on a card. I'll
• 41:21
  Speaker 4: be heavy on ma Leak here and I'll have just
• 41:24
  Speaker 4: a little bit of hedge on the Brundage side.
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I'm with you.
• 41:27
  Speaker 3: I don't plan I'm picking against this dude for a
• 41:29
  Speaker 3: long time either, especially if he just continues to get
• 41:32
  Speaker 3: better at twenty seven. I mean, his head seems to
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: be on stray. He loves it, like the sky's the
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: future for this guy. I'm really excited to see what
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: he can do. I hope they just do throw him up,
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: like after Cody Brundage. Give him somewhere he's like minus
• 41:46
  Speaker 3: two fifty, you know what I mean? Give him a
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: fifteen and eighteen. Give him something like where's the Khan
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: of last week? You got to give this guy a
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: top nine guy, Like, let's actually see where these guys
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: are at this point. Obviously Monsieur and Merzici of a
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: little different with their age and they're pointing their career.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: But I don't need to be seeing a minus eight
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: hundred Monsieur next fight.
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I agree with the line. I think he
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: kills them all.
• 42:10
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Four fights left.
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: Hyoni Barcelos minus two five taken on Cody Garbrandt plus
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: one seventy five minus won twenty five for this fight
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: to finish, Hyoni plus two five inside the distance, Cody
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: plus two point fifty.
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: You already tipped your hand earlier. You like the iony side.
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: You think it's wrestling for days like he did against
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: Peyton Talbot. How do you see this fight going down?
• 42:32
  Speaker 4: I really think Barcelos wins this fight anywhere he wants to.
• 42:35
  Speaker 4: The biggest worry would just be getting knocked out at
• 42:39
  Speaker 4: thirty eight years old. That's the only way I see
• 42:41
  Speaker 4: Cody winning. It's really hard to win fights when you
• 42:44
  Speaker 4: don't throw strikes and you don't wrestle. So I just
• 42:47
  Speaker 4: don't think Cody's gonna win many more fights going forward.
• 42:51
  Speaker 4: He's always going to live off the dominant Cruz win.
• 42:54
  Speaker 4: That was an epic knockout against the Sunsal. But this
• 42:58
  Speaker 4: is a guy that does not throw volume, and now
• 43:00
  Speaker 4: he's got the Tyrone Woodley syndrome where he just backs
• 43:03
  Speaker 4: up against the cage and doesn't do anything. So give
• 43:05
  Speaker 4: me Barcelos to be more talented anywhere this fight goes.
• 43:09
  Speaker 4: I just don't know how much he's gonna score if
• 43:11
  Speaker 4: he wrestles. He could definitely put up one hundred plus here,
• 43:13
  Speaker 4: but I don't think he has to wrestle. I think
• 43:15
  Speaker 4: he could win thirty twenty seven on the feet. He
• 43:18
  Speaker 4: could also knock out garbrant Man. I just think Barcelos
• 43:20
  Speaker 4: is so much better. I bet him at like minus
• 43:22
  Speaker 4: one forty five or minus one fifty earlier in the
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: week on Sunday. Him and Court McGee are my two
• 43:27
  Speaker 4: plays so far, so I'll just be playing him in
• 43:31
  Speaker 4: DFS as well. I'll fade Garbrant completely. I think I
• 43:34
  Speaker 4: always do.
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 43:36
  Speaker 3: I think Cody's more alive for Ko than I do
• 43:39
  Speaker 3: most fights because of how old Barcellos is.
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: I am a little worried about the chin.
• 43:43
  Speaker 3: I mean Umar, it's Umar, of course, but Cody does
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: have that legit part that a sense o Ko oh man.
• 43:49
  Speaker 3: That's I will never forget that walk off second round
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: absolute missile.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: So he has that. But if he doesn't not, I agree.
• 43:58
  Speaker 3: I think it's knockout or boss unless it's like he
• 44:01
  Speaker 3: just gets a knockdown around and he somehow keeps surviving.
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: I'm with you, though, Ione has all the wrestling upside.
• 44:07
  Speaker 3: Cody's a good wrestler himself, though tough takedown defense, so
• 44:10
  Speaker 3: I'm not expecting like five plus takedowns.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: But when Garber it was taken.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Down mass fight against fig like Figgie just mauled them
• 44:18
  Speaker 3: second round submission. It looks like Cody hasn't been on
• 44:20
  Speaker 3: the ground much in his career. And Hyoni the big
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: upset over Peyton Talbot again, and maybe Peyton like the
• 44:26
  Speaker 3: striker and Peyton just wasn't ready for it. So I
• 44:29
  Speaker 3: don't know how much stock I'm putting into that in
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: terms of this one with how much he can wrestle Cody,
• 44:33
  Speaker 3: but great volumes you see on the stone, with wrestling
• 44:37
  Speaker 3: upside and an awful mid tier. He's just my favorite
• 44:40
  Speaker 3: mid tier fighter, and I would be fine plugging in
• 44:43
  Speaker 3: Edmund drop Edmund go Hioni Barcelos three hundred savings. You're
• 44:47
  Speaker 3: literally getting better money line value, worse inside the distance,
• 44:51
  Speaker 3: but you have the wrestling upside unlike Edmund. So little
• 44:53
  Speaker 3: things like that, Whereas I don't love doing it as much.
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: Going Simone to Ryoni and just leaving two hundred, I
• 45:00
  Speaker 3: don't love that as much because I think Simone beats
• 45:03
  Speaker 3: Hyony and his score seventy five percent plus of the time,
• 45:07
  Speaker 3: Whereas I don't know if I agree in the Edmund stuff.
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: So yeah, I don't hate any time you say those words.
• 45:15
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's crazy. I just the low volume
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: with him not having I don't think any wrestling upside
• 45:20
  Speaker 3: himself in this matchup. I think it is more sok
• 45:23
  Speaker 3: or Bus and I don't like seeing the line keep
• 45:26
  Speaker 3: going against Cody Again. I wrote this up Monday, minus
• 45:29
  Speaker 3: one seventy five, one fifty. Right now it's minus two
• 45:32
  Speaker 3: five one seventy five. So some money on Hyoni, and
• 45:36
  Speaker 3: I think people might be seeing Big Marley's bets and
• 45:39
  Speaker 3: tailoring Big Marley's so that is a.
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: Sharp thing to do.
• 45:42
  Speaker 3: All right, Three fights left, speaking of Edmund Shabazi and
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: minus one eighty five taking and Andre Petrowski plus one
• 45:48
  Speaker 3: sixty minus two fifty for this fight to finish minus
• 45:51
  Speaker 3: one forty inside the distance is Shabazi and plus four
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: hundred for Petrowsky Edmund round one plus two hundred straighter
• 46:00
  Speaker 3: and Edmund wrestler in Petrotski fight expected to finish minus
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: two fifty. Yeah, that's all I need to hear. I'm
• 46:06
  Speaker 3: playing this fight. I just said, like, I'd be fine
• 46:08
  Speaker 3: going Edmund down to Hyoni and leave the three hundred.
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: I would be I'd also be fine going Ballado down
• 46:16
  Speaker 3: to Edmund and leaving five hundred. The reason for that
• 46:19
  Speaker 3: is if Edmund wins a lot of it's round one,
• 46:23
  Speaker 3: half a round two. Like he's a front loaded guy,
• 46:25
  Speaker 3: he starts fast, big time power, but as the fight
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: goes on, especially if his opponents can wear on him,
• 46:31
  Speaker 3: he slows down. Petroski have to play Petrotski three point
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: three eight takedowns per fifteen Petroski Thurden and like Simone,
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: they're all the same type of guys. Yes, they're gonna
• 46:43
  Speaker 3: get ownership, but when they win, their likelihood at the
• 46:46
  Speaker 3: optimals a lot higher than other people, especially at seventy
• 46:49
  Speaker 3: four hundred Petrowski by wrestling edmund by Ko, I like
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: them both. Do you have a preferred side, how do
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: you see the fight going?
• 47:00
  Speaker 4: I think my preferred side is shabazi In because I'm
• 47:04
  Speaker 4: picking him to get a knockout, but I I might
• 47:07
  Speaker 4: end up with more exposure to Petrowski if that's just
• 47:09
  Speaker 4: what ends up happening to me being overweight on like
• 47:12
  Speaker 4: a c well Maker and uh Malik.
• 47:17
  Speaker 2: But yeah, this is just a fight.
• 47:18
  Speaker 4: I almost put it as a five star because I
• 47:20
  Speaker 4: do want to target it heavily, and it's it's right
• 47:22
  Speaker 4: in line with the main event for me because shabazi
• 47:26
  Speaker 4: In has that first round ceiling with his with the
• 47:29
  Speaker 4: knockout ceiling, I think he could score one hundred and
• 47:31
  Speaker 4: ten points and make the optimal over those nine k
• 47:34
  Speaker 4: guys here. But on the other end, Petrowski could win
• 47:38
  Speaker 4: every round if he's able to land a takedown at
• 47:41
  Speaker 4: the start of each round. He could just keep top
• 47:43
  Speaker 4: control and dominate the fight, and that could score anywhere
• 47:47
  Speaker 4: from sixty five to like ninety five points probably, but
• 47:51
  Speaker 4: we might need that on this card, so I probably
• 47:53
  Speaker 4: want to go overweight to both sides here. I might
• 47:55
  Speaker 4: even move this a three star three star fighter wise
• 47:59
  Speaker 4: and then five star overall. Once I get my lineup spilled.
• 48:02
  Speaker 4: I'll have to see how much exposure I get. But
• 48:04
  Speaker 4: this is one I plan on having a good amount
• 48:07
  Speaker 4: of and if you really want to get different, I
• 48:09
  Speaker 4: don't hate going from well Maker down to Shabazi and
• 48:12
  Speaker 4: then saving one thousand dollars to try and go solo
• 48:15
  Speaker 4: that way.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: I don't either.
• 48:17
  Speaker 3: Again, if they both get first rowd knockouts, like why
• 48:20
  Speaker 3: why could Edmund score more than well Maker? Do I
• 48:23
  Speaker 3: think it happens? No, But it doesn't matter what you think.
• 48:26
  Speaker 3: Can it happen?
• 48:27
  Speaker 1: Yes?
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: When it happens, you win well Maker team that left
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: zero dollars. Just say that team could be duped seventy times.
• 48:34
  Speaker 3: You leave that one k, you go down to Edmund,
• 48:35
  Speaker 3: that could be a solo shipper one hundred k, and
• 48:38
  Speaker 3: then I don't know sixty times. What if you get
• 48:40
  Speaker 3: paid fifty five hundred in that contest? Is it that
• 48:44
  Speaker 3: much likely? Is it fifty x? More like forty five times? No,
• 48:48
  Speaker 3: not even close. So when you get to that point
• 48:51
  Speaker 3: that it's it's not how often you win. When you win,
• 48:54
  Speaker 3: how much do you win? And showdown in MMA, in
• 48:57
  Speaker 3: sports like this with a condensed player pool, when you win,
• 49:00
  Speaker 3: how much do you win? Little things like that I
• 49:01
  Speaker 3: would totally be fine doing with Edmund. He has a lot,
• 49:04
  Speaker 3: a lot of upside and he's only eighty eight hundred,
• 49:06
  Speaker 3: similar to Simone, a lot a lot of upside to
• 49:09
  Speaker 3: eighty seven hundred. Those are the guys that I'm more
• 49:11
  Speaker 3: likely to leave money on the table with guys that
• 49:14
  Speaker 3: don't break the bank, but they could if they're the
• 49:17
  Speaker 3: highest scorer on the slate. Would I be surprised if
• 49:19
  Speaker 3: Edmond was a highest score on the slate, I'd be
• 49:21
  Speaker 3: a little surprised. I think it'd have to be a
• 49:23
  Speaker 3: first minute knockouts, but he could easily still score one, twelve,
• 49:26
  Speaker 3: one point fifteen, et cetera. All right, code main event
• 49:30
  Speaker 3: time not a great one for DFS by any means
• 49:34
  Speaker 3: Rose non by unis minus two forty one Miranda Maverick
• 49:37
  Speaker 3: plus two oh six plus three twenty five for this
• 49:40
  Speaker 3: fight to finish, Rose plus three eighty five inside the
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: distance Miranda plus eight point fifty.
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: I tip my hand.
• 49:47
  Speaker 3: I'm not playing Rose in twenty teams or less, like
• 49:49
  Speaker 3: just no chance striker. If anyone wrestles in this one,
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: I think it's Miranda Maverick. I still don't think Maverick
• 49:56
  Speaker 3: has much success getting takedowns. Rose good distance management and
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: takedown defense is held up.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: I just think she's.
• 50:03
  Speaker 3: Faster, a better striker, pieces an averc up for three
• 50:06
  Speaker 3: rounds and it's not optimal. But if I were to
• 50:08
  Speaker 3: play anyone, it definitely is Maverick, just because she's seventy
• 50:11
  Speaker 3: one hundred and kind of what I said earlier about Vanessa.
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: If no underdogs win and this fight goes a decision,
• 50:18
  Speaker 3: Maverick gets two or three takedown she scores forty one
• 50:21
  Speaker 3: and a loss, it could be optimal. So for that reason,
• 50:24
  Speaker 3: it's Maverick. Your pass Rose By decision is the pick, though,
• 50:28
  Speaker 3: what about you?
• 50:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah? Same?
• 50:31
  Speaker 4: I changing this right now to a two star Rose,
• 50:36
  Speaker 4: four star Maverick just because I just don't see Rose
• 50:40
  Speaker 4: making the optimal line up here. She has to get
• 50:42
  Speaker 4: a finish. I mean she could, she could get a
• 50:44
  Speaker 4: knockout with a head kick, or possibly submit her I
• 50:47
  Speaker 4: think she's more love first submission than a knockout.
• 50:50
  Speaker 2: But I picked her to win.
• 50:52
  Speaker 4: A decision, and she has two three round decision wins
• 50:57
  Speaker 4: in the UFC. She scored sixty three. You might as
• 51:02
  Speaker 4: well lose at ninety one hundred is scoring sixty points
• 51:05
  Speaker 4: on this card, So I'm I'm just gonna x Rose
• 51:08
  Speaker 4: out of my player pool and go higher on the
• 51:10
  Speaker 4: other nine k fighters. And Maverick is somebody I would
• 51:13
  Speaker 4: be okay getting exposure to here. This is the biggest
• 51:16
  Speaker 4: fight of her life. It puts her in titleship, our
• 51:19
  Speaker 4: title contention here, and.
• 51:22
  Speaker 2: She could win.
• 51:23
  Speaker 4: Man if she puts the wrestling shoes on, she could
• 51:25
  Speaker 4: score well too, So I will get some Maverick here.
• 51:28
  Speaker 4: I just don't think it's a good matchup. Rose is
• 51:30
  Speaker 4: just too talented. Roses really better everywhere, So picking Rose
• 51:33
  Speaker 4: to win, but I'll have zero percent Rose, and I
• 51:36
  Speaker 4: think Maverick could be somebody I actually end up overweight too,
• 51:39
  Speaker 4: just because she's an underdog and there's a number of
• 51:43
  Speaker 4: underdogs that I'm fading completely.
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: We're lockstep. We see it the exact same way.
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: I don't think I'll play Rose even in one hundred
• 51:49
  Speaker 3: and fifty teams. Yeah, same like I'm like, I don't
• 51:53
  Speaker 3: think I'll play Jamie Lyndhorth in one hundred and fifty teams,
• 51:56
  Speaker 3: whereas I would get a little brandage.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: So that's how I see it that way. Definitely no
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: Rose for me, all right.
• 52:02
  Speaker 3: Main event time Jokin Buckley minus two seventy taking on Kamara,
• 52:07
  Speaker 3: Usman plus two thirty minus one fifty for this fight
• 52:11
  Speaker 3: to finish, Buckley plus one fifteen inside the distance, Usman
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: plus two seventy. Tough fight, tough fight. I mean, I'll
• 52:20
  Speaker 3: let you take it away. You started off, what are
• 52:22
  Speaker 3: you doing?
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: I'm gonna be on the underdog.
• 52:25
  Speaker 4: Uh, just more so like I feel like I owe
• 52:28
  Speaker 4: it to Usman over all the years Man, he's been
• 52:30
  Speaker 4: scoring one hundred and forty points for me. I just
• 52:33
  Speaker 4: think he's one of the best DFS players of all time.
• 52:36
  Speaker 4: If this fight was two years ago, he's an easy
• 52:38
  Speaker 4: minus five hundred favorite, and I probably would have been
• 52:41
  Speaker 4: all in on DraftKings. The issue is that he's thirty
• 52:45
  Speaker 4: eight years old, he hasn't won a fight in like
• 52:47
  Speaker 4: three four years. He's getting he's getting uh, but he's
• 52:52
  Speaker 4: got bad knees and they're only getting worse, so it's
• 52:55
  Speaker 4: hard to believe in them. But it's also to a
• 52:58
  Speaker 4: point where I think minus too sick six five on
• 53:00
  Speaker 4: Buckley could just be a little bit two wide for me,
• 53:04
  Speaker 4: and I think Buckley is the side that makes this
• 53:07
  Speaker 4: fight not make the optimal lineup. If Usman is gonna
• 53:11
  Speaker 4: have success wrestling in this fight, I think it's the
• 53:13
  Speaker 4: first round and then probably the second round as well,
• 53:17
  Speaker 4: and if Buckley drops those first two rounds, he's not
• 53:19
  Speaker 4: gonna make the optimal lineup. I don't think he's gonna
• 53:22
  Speaker 4: knock Ousman out. He might outpoint him over the course
• 53:25
  Speaker 4: of five rounds, but if he spins more than a
• 53:28
  Speaker 4: round or two on his back, it's just gonna be
• 53:31
  Speaker 4: hard for him to make the optimal lineup. So I'm
• 53:33
  Speaker 4: underweight Buckley overweight Ousman, but it's the same thing as dirt,
• 53:38
  Speaker 4: and I'm not confident Usman's gonna win this fight. I'm
• 53:41
  Speaker 4: just confident he's gonna score well if he does win
• 53:43
  Speaker 4: the fight. And that's what I'll target. So give me Usman.
• 53:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I like it.
• 53:47
  Speaker 3: You uh changeing my tier rankings a little bit because
• 53:52
  Speaker 3: I agree with everything you said on the Buckley side,
• 53:54
  Speaker 3: like we mentioned it up top, like I'm gonna have
• 53:56
  Speaker 3: fight fades a third one knockout might not be enough.
• 53:58
  Speaker 3: If he gets control for anything in the first round,
• 54:01
  Speaker 3: he knocks him out in the second, that's not enough.
• 54:03
  Speaker 3: There's plenty of pass where Buckley wins and is not optimal.
• 54:06
  Speaker 3: He scores one oh two. The upper tiers so loaded.
• 54:09
  Speaker 3: So I agree with all of that. I was picking Buckley.
• 54:13
  Speaker 3: I am picking Buckley. I think he's just the stronger fighter.
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: He's more in his prime. Usman's knees is always a concern.
• 54:19
  Speaker 3: Buckley's just such a freak athletically. But with all that
• 54:22
  Speaker 3: being said, with the price difference, if Usman wins, he's
• 54:25
  Speaker 3: gonna be optimal on a card I don't like dogs,
• 54:28
  Speaker 3: Whereas that camp, the same camp be said about Buckley.
• 54:31
  Speaker 3: So I think, yeah, the more I look at it,
• 54:32
  Speaker 3: Usman might be my preferred side. Maybe the fight fades
• 54:35
  Speaker 3: my preferred side because I'm gonna be fading Buckley or
• 54:38
  Speaker 3: I'm not excuse me, I'm picking Buckley, but there's so
• 54:41
  Speaker 3: many pass where he wins, it doesn't get there, and
• 54:44
  Speaker 3: it's gonna be so high owned.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna be overweight to the fight fade.
• 54:47
  Speaker 3: But a lot of that again has to do so
• 54:49
  Speaker 3: maybe I do end up underweight Buckley or even with
• 54:52
  Speaker 3: the field, because I want probably around the field on Usman.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: If he wins, he's there.
• 54:57
  Speaker 3: Buckley at forty five forty six percent, like man, I
• 55:01
  Speaker 3: can you Buckley drop down to Ricky Simone plenty will
• 55:03
  Speaker 3: play both, but Simoni I almost like Simone in the
• 55:07
  Speaker 3: vacuum more than Buckley, Like man, you get way better
• 55:10
  Speaker 3: money line odds.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: We don't.
• 55:12
  Speaker 3: I don't have like his inside the distance prop. But
• 55:14
  Speaker 3: the fight got hammered to finish way more takedowns. Like Yeah,
• 55:18
  Speaker 3: the more I'm thinking about it, I like the fight fade.
• 55:20
  Speaker 3: I think the most out of anything. Assuming we keep
• 55:23
  Speaker 3: all thirteen fights, and then you hope for a Buckley
• 55:25
  Speaker 3: win Buckley decision. He just doesn't break the slate that way.
• 55:29
  Speaker 3: I'll play them both, but yeah, I very well might
• 55:32
  Speaker 3: be more overweight to Usman, and I might be the
• 55:34
  Speaker 3: most overweight to the fight fade on this slate.
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: I like it.
• 55:38
  Speaker 3: Any any final thoughts, any changes that you had throughout,
• 55:42
  Speaker 3: like when you came into the show to after. I
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: think we did a solid job getting fades, getting ways
• 55:48
  Speaker 3: to get different fingers crossed.
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: We keep all thirteen.
• 55:52
  Speaker 4: I don't know that I really changed my mind on
• 55:58
  Speaker 4: really really anything at all. I think it's gonna be
• 56:04
  Speaker 4: a fairly straightforward car to how we.
• 56:05
  Speaker 2: Broke it down.
• 56:06
  Speaker 4: I'll have all my notes over at ship at nation
• 56:08
  Speaker 4: dot com if anything does change, but that would just
• 56:10
  Speaker 4: be once I build my lineups and I know more
• 56:13
  Speaker 4: so what I am playing, what I'm underweight and overweight on.
• 56:16
  Speaker 4: I haven't done that yet, but I'm gonna start doing
• 56:18
  Speaker 4: it here probably shit, maybe maybe tomorrow now that's the
• 56:21
  Speaker 4: Pacers games about to start soon.
• 56:24
  Speaker 2: But yeah, I just think it's gonna be a fun card.
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: I'm actually gonna be there in a suite watching it,
• 56:28
  Speaker 4: so I hope, hope I take it down and then
• 56:31
  Speaker 4: I can celebrate there with some free drinks in the suite.
• 56:33
  Speaker 4: But good luck to you title, good luck to everybody
• 56:35
  Speaker 4: listening the ship.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: It absolutely no one running better than Big Marley right now.
• 56:39
  Speaker 3: I'll get us Pacers in game three and thirty minutes.
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: In a couple of days, he's headed to Atlanta to
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: watch some fights in a suite with his boys. So
• 56:47
  Speaker 3: absolutely enjoy that, Big Marley. Good luck to you. Nothing
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: sweeter than would be shipping this card. Good Luck to
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: your pacers. Good luck also to every single one out there.
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: We would love to have you at shipping nation dot
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: com again.
• 56:59
  Speaker 2: Lock on on.
• 57:00
  Speaker 3: Next thing you know, football will be back with p
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: G A, n B A, MLB, m M A Stanley
• 57:05
  Speaker 3: Cups still going and NASCAR Chip Nation dot com. No
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: better discord community out there. We would love to have
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: you for Big Marley. I'm titled town. Good luck this Saturday,
• 57:18
  Speaker 3: fight nights in Atlanta. Take something down, be safe, enjoy
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: your weekend.
• 57:23
  Speaker 1: P