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168: How AI and the LRC Are Changing Weather Forecasting with Gary Lezak · CattleUSA Daily

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In today's episode with Gary Lezak, we are bringing back your
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guys's weekly weather report where we are breaking down what
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is happening in the world of weather right now.
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It is a really exciting time as this week is the start of the
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brand new cycle for the LRC and that setting up and what all of
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that means. Gary is breaking all of that
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down Today. We do some fun, just impromptu
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chitchat things about the weather, about what's going on,
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what our thoughts are as we go into winter and just the rest of
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this week. It is pretty warm around the
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United States right now. And so we talk about all of
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those things today in the podcast with Gary.
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Before we jump in, if you guys could take a second to like
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subscribe, rate and review, we would really appreciate it here
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at the team. And without further ado, let's
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hear what Gary has to say about the weather this week.
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Welcome to the Cattle USA Daily podcast, your go to source for
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the latest livestock markets, industry insights and the
0:58
updates shaping agriculture today.
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I'm your host, Lauren Moylan, a passionate advocate for
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agriculture here to keep you informed and connected.
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Now let's dive into today's episode.
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Gary, good morning. Welcome back to the podcast.
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How how's life in Colorado? Give us the update.
1:23
What's going on in your world? Everything's going great, and
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good morning or good afternoon whenever you're listening to
1:30
this. Hope everyone's doing great.
1:32
Yeah, it's worth an amazing time of the year.
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We'll talk about the transition in the weather pattern here in
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just a second. But personally, I did something
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amazing last Friday. And you know what a good bowling
1:43
score is, right? Yeah, like over 200. 300 is the
1:48
highest score, right? Yeah, yeah.
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So like I'm going to maybe, maybe get over 200 if it's a
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really good day and maybe if the bumpers are.
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Up over 200 is always a really great day actually.
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But yeah, if you get 12 strikes in a row, it's it's a 300.
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And and so I, my highest, I, I used to be a pretty decent
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bowler, 189 average, you know, whatever.
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But I hadn't bowled in years. And I've got a ball that's 30
2:14
years old. I'm still using that my one of
2:17
my teammates and just joined this league and one of my
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teammates says you need a new ball.
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But last week on Friday, our league's on Friday night and in
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the first game I bowled a 168, I believe.
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And then about the 7th or 8th frame, I pulled the muscle in my
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lower back again. I'm like, Oh no, am I going to
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be able to keep bowling? I knew this whatever, I'm too
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old for this. So the next game, I think I just
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started concentrating real hard. And then I was like sort of
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amazed that it's it's there, but it's not a major injury.
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And I got a spare in the 1st frame and then I got a strike in
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the 2nd, 3rd, 4th. So the Turkey 5th, 6th, 7th,
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8th, 9th, 8th straight strikes. And if I would have gotten three
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more, I would have had a 290, but I end up with a 266.
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Isn't that amazing? Holy.
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Cow. I know scary I know people
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started I think watching me but a couple of strikes were the 6th
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one in a row was far from a perfect strike.
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I missed the head pin, so you know, leaves the head pin
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standing. 3 pins were steady, but one pin I had still a good
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action on my ball. 1 pin came back and knocked over all three
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pins and I got a strike that way.
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So I got a couple Lucky Strikes in there.
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Yeah, I cannot say my bowling game is anywhere close to that.
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Well, I hope my lower back holds up because I want to get out
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there and do it again on Friday. Yeah, and we don't need another
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injury to add add to anything. Your shoulder is almost better.
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Let's not make your lower back the next target.
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On that, and I've always had the philosophy of like, not doing
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these physical things. I just didn't think bowling was
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going to be included in one of those activities.
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Well, I, I think I can still play ping pong.
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I'm not sure. But my, my challenge physically
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is working out. So I don't want these injuries
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because I, I like to stay in good shape, work out and my
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shoulders almost better and still got a little bicep tendon
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problem. But I don't need to tell you
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about all my injuries. But getting old is a you know
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what? Yes, absolutely, absolutely.
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Well, Colorado is beautiful right now.
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You guys are getting all of the fall leaves, changing, all of
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the things like that. Have you had a chance to make it
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up the mountain yet, or just? No, but I might.
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Saturday morning, there's a chance of snow in the higher
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elevation. Saturday, just as a little
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disturbance goes by. I might go up there and see my
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first snowflake of the season and then see the aspens before
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they're completely past peak, because those aspens turned
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yellow and they're gorgeous. I may take a ride this weekend
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up there before it's too late because the color changes real
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early up there, you know, so, but here down in the Denver
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golden area where I'm at starting to change.
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So it's going to be a beautiful fall.
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It's a warm start to fall, Lauren.
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It absolutely is. It's a warm start to fall
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everywhere. Like it's still supposed to get
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up to 80° today. I've started wearing sweaters on
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the podcast. Don't let the sweater fool you.
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I'm wearing shorts. Blow this.
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But I've started wearing sweaters on the podcast because
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I'm like, you know, maybe if I start wearing my sweaters, then
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like Mother Nature will be like, OK, fall, Like we're going to
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start bringing the fall weather because we're dressing like it,
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right? I know that's not how that
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works. Don't.
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Fool with Mother Nature, you know you got to.
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You don't want to make her angry and, and but the sweaters,
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that's not, you're not doing something against her.
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So you're just trying to get her to realize it's fall.
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So I'm wearing sweaters and make it colder.
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Exactly, except I won't wear this.
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As soon as we get off this podcast, I'm changing into a
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tank top again because it's going to be 85° in Kansas today.
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It's a warm, it's warm as you said, just about everywhere.
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So what is going on with this weather pattern?
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Well, today is we're in the first week of October, all
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right. And So what happens is that that
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miraculous change in the weather pattern is in progress right
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now. So we've been sharing all year
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long with you from Weather 2020. We're we're proud to share all
6:26
of you listening and watching out there.
6:28
The secret, there's a secret in weather that you're in on and
6:33
it's the cycling weather pattern.
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Here it is. Or the first week of October, if
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I were to tell you exactly when there is a day one of the
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pattern we're going to experience for the year ahead,
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it would be around October 5th, 6th or 7th.
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So that's Sunday, Monday, Tuesday could be as early as
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October 4th. But I don't know exactly what
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day it is until it happens. And until I look back about a
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month later and I go there it was, there was really the
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beginning of the, the new weather pan we're about to
7:05
experience. So it's like a roulette wheel
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that is spinning. And imagine this roulette wheel
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spinning in the ball is now spinning.
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We just put the ball in there and spun it around.
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And there are these slots that can fall on cold and snowy.
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It could fall on dry and warm. It could fall on drought.
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It could fall on no drought expected.
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It could fall on all these different categories.
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I'm going to make the spinning wheel and post it on our
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Intelligence Report next week. I'm going to make one more, two
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of them because it is really truly that way.
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I don't know where it's going to land.
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There are some indications we can look at like La Nina, El
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Nino, the MJO, which is the Madden Julian Oscillation,
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Arctic Oscillation, the AO, the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO.
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And so you have all these things that are pointing in One
8:00
Direction or another already for the winter, and we'll look at
8:04
those as we go forward. But the centerpiece of the big
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atmosphere jigsaw is the LRC. And so that's why the ball
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hasn't dropped yet on that. And I don't know exactly what it
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is I'm going to put, I'm going to lay out all those other
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indicators and have arrows pointing one way or the other
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what they mean for the winter. But then we must see what the
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centerpiece is. So where will that ball drop?
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I know what I want it to drop into every single winter, every
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year I wanted to drop into extremely snowy and extremely
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cold. Why?
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Why do I want to wish that on anybody?
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Because I think snow is so pretty and beautiful.
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I don't care how cold it gets as long as it snows now.
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If it isn't going to snow, then I'm fine.
8:53
With what's going on right now and temperatures staying in the
8:55
80s, what do you? Think I would second that 100%.
8:59
Like if it's going to be dead and cold and dreary outside,
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there might as well be snow on the ground.
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That's my thought process as well.
9:08
That if it's. Going to be.
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Just gross. I might as well see snow.
9:12
Like it might as well be semi pretty when I look outside and
9:16
Oh my gosh, there's nothing. I really don't like winter Gary.
9:19
I really like. I don't, I don't like being
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cold. That's my thing.
9:23
Like I'm just not a fan of being cold.
9:24
I would much rather go outside and sweat for the most part
9:28
granite right now, it's kind of getting to those days where I'm
9:30
like, I'm over it. I'm over the heat, but I would
9:34
second that, that like if it's going to be cruddy outside,
9:38
there might as well be snow on the ground.
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We might as well get some moisture out of it.
9:41
So no, I second that, except I wouldn't say I would rather it
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be 80s. I would say I would rather it be
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like sixties, 70s, high 50s, light, five mile an hour breeze,
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sunny outside. I'm a happy camper.
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That's fine. It's my ideal day.
10:00
Yeah, all the above I agree with pretty much fifties, 60s,
10:04
seventies, 80s, these as soon as it's gotten down to like 10°
10:07
outside 50s is actually fairly mild.
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Yeah, that's so true. If we go from it being like 10°
10:15
outside to in the 50s, I'm probably outside wearing shorts.
10:18
Right, exactly. That's that happens.
10:20
I'll take the dogs for a walk and take my shirt off.
10:22
So there you go. Yeah.
10:25
Now if it drops down to. 40° or 50° Right now I'm like, where's
10:29
my winter coat? Guys, well, I wore my winter
10:31
coat this morning and it's only like 55 so that's going to be a
10:34
warm day soon, but I know I I agree.
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So that spinning roulette wheel is going, I'm going to make that
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graphic and come up with the options of where it may land.
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And now with ChatGPT and other programs, it's easier to make a
10:50
graphic. Or if you, if any of you are new
10:52
to this ChatGPT concept, all you have to do is go, Hey, chat,
10:56
good morning to you. And it's a computer.
10:59
So you got to be careful and not, you have to realize it's
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not a, a person. OK, so I said, what do you
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think? What am I?
11:05
What do you think? It's a computer.
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So, but you can just tell it, Hey, I need a roulette wheel
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with, I want the spots to look like this, this, this, and this.
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And in one minute or three minutes, it'll have a beautiful
11:19
roulette wheel. So I'll show them what I what I
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create, but I will, I'll still manipulate what I want it to
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look like. So you, there's a lot of
11:27
creativity still available, but man, there's a lot of different
11:31
things that this AI world is going to be changing.
11:35
It's already changing us. I think it's manipulating us.
11:38
I think there's already problems out there when it comes to this
11:42
AI high stuff, but I think there's some advantages to it.
11:45
I'm doing research on the LRC. We can use that instead of
11:49
having a team of scientists. I can have this amazing computer
11:52
that that you have to be careful because it makes mistakes, but
11:55
there's advantages to it. I don't know if you're into the
11:58
AI world yet, but have you gotten ventured in there?
12:01
Yeah, Gary, I've been on the train for like since the train
12:05
left the station. I was on the train, I was like,
12:10
let's go my ChatGPT and I are besties.
12:14
I pay for a pro version. I pay for a pro version for all
12:17
of my team. It is extremely, extremely vital
12:21
in just our operations, in our like, in our efficiency, because
12:26
I'm a big believer that like, yes, there is coming a wave of
12:30
technology in a wave of this world of AI that is going to
12:35
replace some of the workforce. But at the same time, like like
12:37
you said, it still gets things wrong.
12:39
It still isn't perfect by any means, but I use it for
12:42
productivity. I use it for planning things.
12:46
Like I use it for everything. And I've even started using it
12:50
as a search engine which is very popular amongst younger
12:53
generations. Now.
12:56
Is using AI as a search engine because it's honestly, it's
12:59
easier for me to go to AI and say research this topic and give
13:04
me a thorough answer that covers ABCDEFG and summarize it all for
13:10
me yadda yadda yadda. It'll do all the research for
13:13
me. Go look at the research papers.
13:14
Go look at. Science and all the things.
13:17
You have a very sophisticated scientific paper.
13:21
It's very complex and you say, hey, would you read this?
13:25
And I will. I'm looking for this to come out
13:27
of it and it'll find it. It reads the paper in one
13:31
second. It can read a novel.
13:33
That's where here's where you can catch it though.
13:35
Like I know a friend of mine that can read the novel in like
13:39
15 minutes. It's ridiculous.
13:41
JJ Boutique can do the thing in 30 seconds, but guess what?
13:43
It still misses things. So anyway, things to remember,
13:47
things to remember. But Andy, my partner, he he has,
13:52
he fell the gym and he has a contusion.
13:57
He had a hematoma underneath his skin in his chest and his whole
14:01
chest turned black and blue. So about two days there he goes.
14:05
Hello. I have a new best friend.
14:08
I go, You have a new best friend.
14:09
He goes, yeah, I go. Who's your new best friend?
14:12
Chachi PT because he is able to to put in the information about
14:17
his injury and gather a confident way to deal with it
14:22
and it understood his feelings. I remember Andy is a Celtic
14:28
psychologist too, so it's hilarious but but it gave him
14:33
some guidance on how to treat it.
14:35
I gave him my advice and said you're going to be fine when you
14:38
go to Santa Monica, but he he's like his other best friend to
14:42
tell him the truth. That is too funny.
14:44
That's too funny. No, it's definitely a changing
14:47
environment, changing world out there.
14:49
But I am, I'm on board, I'm on the train like Chugalug.
14:54
Let's see where it goes and where it takes us and
14:57
disadvantages to it. But right now, is it going to be
14:59
coldest winter to see what it says?
15:01
Yeah, let me just, I haven't done that yet.
15:04
Let's do a live analysis. You ask yours and I'm going to
15:06
ask. Mine.
15:07
OK, well, yeah, because mine knows about me, so it knows
15:09
about me. So exactly.
15:11
Let's see what it says. Even better, mention the LRC.
15:14
If it doesn't, I'm going to be mad.
15:16
So here we go. OK?
15:17
What are we asking it? What?
15:19
Exactly. I'm going to.
15:20
Let's ask it. You ask it and we'll get two
15:22
different answers. OK.
15:23
OK, Let's ask it. Is it What?
15:25
Is it going to be cold this winter?
15:27
Let's do that. Is it going to be cold this
15:31
winter? By the way?
15:32
The answer is yes. It's winter.
15:36
Oh, ready for this? Yeah.
15:40
Let's hear it, my. Chain I love because this is
15:43
this is how I would probably answer it.
15:45
You ready? Yep.
15:47
Should I hear yours first or my first?
15:49
Let's do mine first because mine does.
15:52
I don't talk about weather with mine, so let's let's hear mine
15:55
first here. I got to bring you in closer so
15:57
I can still talk into the mic, OK?
15:59
Mine says that's a great question.
16:03
The honest answer is it depends on where this winter means which
16:07
part of the US and I'm going and I and on some big, big climate
16:12
signals. But here's what the odds and
16:14
trends are pointing towards as of now.
16:17
What's shaping this winter outlook?
16:18
It's a whole section here. Our primary drivers were
16:21
watching ENSO state, El Nino, La Nina, neutral.
16:26
Right now the atmosphere is in neutral state, yadda yadda yadda
16:29
towards weak La Nina coming from open snow research.
16:35
Then we've got the jet stream and polar vortex behavior, how
16:37
far South the jet stream dips and where the polar vortex gets
16:41
wobbled, blah blah blah. There's more on that.
16:44
Historical analogs for weak La Nina and weak La Nina winners.
16:48
Some regions, especially in the northern US, tend to see colder
16:51
than average conditions, while the southern US often OK so.
16:55
In other words, it's not really telling you anything.
16:57
Here's the deal. What I would like to do, it's
16:59
going to be very cold. At the end, put in.
17:01
There really long. Put in the.
17:03
Follow. Put in one follow up question.
17:05
OK, Isn't the LRC the the best way to know what's going to
17:12
happen this winter? Put that in and then I'll read
17:14
you mine. Isn't the LRC the best way to
17:16
know what's going with this winter?
17:17
Doesn't know about it. Let's see, maybe it doesn't know
17:20
about it, so I have. A rule in mind that it has to
17:23
challenge all of my assumptions. That's fine.
17:26
And so it starts with the assumption behind isn't the LRC.
17:29
The best way is the seasonal forecasts are going to guesswork
17:32
unless they're grounded in something repeatable and
17:34
observable. And that's the whole thesis for
17:36
the LESAC recurring cycle or the LRC.
17:39
And then it like there's so much on this and it says like there's
17:43
different titles what the LRC actually is, how many people
17:46
argue it's the best, but limitations.
17:50
And then the bottom line is if you want general trends N colder
17:55
S warmer and SO base forecast are fine.
17:58
If you want actionable storm by storm guidance when the bitter
18:01
cold hits, when the snow even events stack up, the LRC hands
18:08
down is hands down the better tool once the cycle is fully
18:13
locked in in late fall. OK, there you go.
18:15
That's good. So so mine says, hey all I did
18:18
was ask is it going to be cold this winter and it says great
18:22
question and the honest answer is we can't know yet, which is
18:27
what I tell you. Remember the pattern the the
18:28
roulette wheel spinning? Here's what it says.
18:31
The new LRC hasn't officially begun.
18:33
Will likely pin down day one around October 5th, 6th, 7th
18:37
until the new cycle is fully established by late November,
18:41
it's too early to lock in whether the dominant weather
18:44
pattern will be cold, warm, stormy, or dry.
18:46
Last year's a good for example, the 2023-2024 LRC started dry,
18:51
then evolved into a wetter, stormier cycle that shrank
18:54
drought across the AG belt, which by the way, we predicted
18:58
because of the LRC, the same kind of shift could happen this
19:02
year once the jet stream blocks in.
19:04
We do know that once the cycle length and structure are
19:07
defined, we'll be able to project when and where cold
19:11
outbreaks and winter storms will occur with high confidence.
19:15
The same accuracy we just showed with Hurricane Aaron and
19:18
Hurricane Humberto applies to winter forecast.
19:22
So ask again in mid November. By then we'll have the 1st 40 to
19:27
50 days of the new pattern logged and the cycle length
19:31
beginning to be calculated. This is calculated.
19:34
We won't know yet, and we'll be ready to map out the key and
19:38
storm window windows for 20/25/2026.
19:42
Would you like me to sketch out what we'll watch for in October?
19:47
I'm not going to ask that, but isn't that amazing?
19:50
Look at that. That's crazy.
19:51
And it's crazy how two different people ask the same question to
19:55
the same platform to get very different answers on it.
19:58
You're going to get. A when when it's made because
20:00
I'm very confident LRC answer when it's somebody else who
20:05
doesn't. You haven't talked about the LRC
20:07
with chat yet. It goes in and goes well.
20:10
I can't believe it. Some don't believe it.
20:12
Yeah, because most most aren't sure about it because you are in
20:17
on a secret. We have the DNA of the
20:19
atmosphere, the blueprint. So the longer ChatGPT continues
20:24
to not understand it is the better for weather 2020 to
20:29
explode on the scene, which which we're which is what we're
20:32
doing with you guys. And I want to give you this
20:34
fact. Everyone listen to this very
20:36
closely and please, I'm going to make it simple.
20:40
So I want you to tell me how astounding this is.
20:45
So we just had the ninth name storm of the season, Hurricane
20:50
Imelda, which is tracking over the Atlantic right now.
20:54
Before Hurricane Imelda was Hurricane Humberto and Humberto
20:59
became a Category 5 hurricane, the 44th category 5 hurricane
21:06
ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.
21:09
So the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, Atlantic or the Gulf
21:13
of America, I'm not sure which which What do you think?
21:16
But it's either one the should have gone there, but Gulf of
21:21
Mexico, that basin. So Humberto's the 44th Category
21:27
5 hurricane in history, and before it, about 42 days
21:36
earlier, Aaron was a also the 43rd category 5 hurricane.
21:41
Four of those major hurricanes did not make landfall. 4
21:47
category fives in history did not make our landfall on any
21:53
island, stayed over the ocean, and before it died or turned
21:56
into a winter storm way up north, it didn't make landfall.
21:59
So two of those four are Aaron and Humberto.
22:03
Two of the four in history that did not make landfall are Aaron
22:06
and Humberto. They're 42 days apart.
22:09
And if you've been listening on this podcast and you know, I've
22:12
been saying the pattern is cycling about every six weeks,
22:15
which is 4142 days. So Humberto and Aaron are
22:19
directly related and both of them are just two of the four in
22:23
history that didn't make landfall.
22:25
That's the LRC. That's the kind of thing when
22:29
something starts happening in October, November, and I see
22:31
these weather seeds and a weather seed was planted in
22:35
October last year that predicted Humberto and Aaron.
22:39
We predicted Humberto and Aaron right here on this podcast
22:43
online. And yet the world doesn't even
22:47
know. And I used to get a lot of
22:49
pushback from my scientific friends.
22:51
But because of the way social media has become so, you know,
22:55
vile mean, I don't hear from them as much anymore.
22:59
Or they don't know how to respond to the accuracy because
23:03
they want it to be wrong. Fascinating.
23:05
That's crazy. I love seeing how things connect
23:10
and just the long term impacts that this has.
23:13
And it's just we've talked about it before for the last few
23:16
weeks. Like this is such an exciting
23:17
time. This new cycle is setting up
23:19
this week. Like right now it's happening
23:23
and my gosh, come November, be here or be square.
23:27
Like we're going to be the first people to be sharing about it
23:30
and what the new cycles doing, how it's affecting all the
23:33
things and what it's looking like.
23:35
And it's just, it's a fun month to sit back and just look at the
23:39
weather and be like, I wonder, wonder what cycle we're going to
23:42
be in this year and what does it?
23:44
Mean for your farm, What does it mean for your business?
23:47
What does it mean for your cattle?
23:50
You know, what does this mean? The weather is important for the
23:55
cattle and and the farms and agriculture out there.
23:58
And So what we will be able to do in the next few weeks, I will
24:02
say, did you see that storm that just formed across let's say
24:05
Colorado or Minneapolis or or the Great Lakes or the West
24:08
Coast and say that is a weather seat that part of the pattern is
24:12
going to return. Last year was on a 42 day, 41
24:16
day cadence just like Humberto and Aaron and Imelda and and
24:20
Chantal before that and others. So you have this cadence.
24:23
And so we don't know that cadence yet.
24:25
The roulette wheel spinning still, but these little things
24:29
that happen or big storms that happen, I will lay them out for
24:32
you and we'll start to see what it means for your farm and
24:36
that's coming soon. Only here.
24:39
So exciting. Yes, only here I love it.
24:42
Before we wrap up the podcast, Gary, what's going on in the
24:44
weather this week? Is there any major highlights
24:48
that we need to touch on or cover well the.
24:50
Patterns in massive transition. It's the one time of the year
24:53
that it actually is a massive transition.
24:55
It's a warm pattern for another 10 days at least.
24:58
So this week and into the first half of October, a warm start to
25:03
this pattern. So what does it mean for the
25:06
second-half of October? We'll talk about that next week.
25:09
Usually, as you know, if you're listening, I don't do that.
25:13
Soon as we get to December, what's happening in January,
25:15
What's happening in the second-half of January?
25:17
We'll know by then. What's happening March 1st to
25:21
30th? I don't know.
25:22
Get the global predictor because we'll know by then.
25:26
And by the way. Something big for the Gold
25:28
predictor is being launched this week.
25:30
Be looking for If you got the free version, you're going to
25:34
get a notice and it's basically going to be you get 14 days for
25:39
free for the entire full 6 month forecast.
25:44
So everyone's going to get from day one all the way to six
25:47
months from now And then at 14 days, you'll need to pay the 599
25:51
a month if you want to continue. But at least you're going to get
25:53
to see the functionality of why this tool is such a cool thing
25:57
to plan events, weddings, or just want to see what's
26:00
happening around the world. Yes.
26:02
Absolutely, and we will have all of those links linked down below
26:05
for all of you listeners out there so that you can check out
26:08
anything from the Global Predictor to the Weather 2020
26:11
dashboard or anything else that you might be interested in
26:15
getting. Gary also has a sub stack link
26:17
for you guys down below where he breaks down in even more detail
26:20
than he talks about here on the podcast, what is happening.
26:22
And it's a really exciting time to be a part of that right now
26:25
as that new cycle is setting up. So to all of our listeners,
26:28
thank you so much for listening. Gary, thank you for your time
26:30
and we will see you all tomorrow on another episode.
26:33
Have a good one y'all.