Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 9 with Scooch and Simon Hunter; and special guest Dave Weaver, horse analyst for TVG talk Breeders Cup

Transcript

NFL Week 9 with Scooch and Simon Hunter; and special guest Dave Weaver, horse analyst for TVG talk Breeders Cup · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites the Podcast. I am Chad Millman
0:13
Speaker 1: from the Action Network. In just a second, I will
0:18
Speaker 1: be joined by Bob Scucci. But later on in the show,
0:22
Speaker 1: Professional Better Simon Hunter is going to come on and
0:24
Speaker 1: we're gonna go over uh our five picks for the
0:28
Speaker 1: Westgates Super Contest. Darren is not joining because he's on
0:33
Speaker 1: the hunt of Mattress Mac, the guy bedding twenty million
0:36
Speaker 1: dollars on the World Series. That is all coming down
0:39
Speaker 1: to tonight's game. It's Wednesday when I'm recording this. Tonight
0:43
Speaker 1: they're playing Game seven. Mattress Mac has bet twenty million
0:47
Speaker 1: dollars and Darren has been with him every step of
0:49
Speaker 1: the way, including today flying on a private jet to
0:52
Speaker 1: Mississippi so Mattress Mac can get even more money down. Also,
0:57
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup coming up this weekend. We like to cover
1:00
Speaker 1: the big races. We like to cover the big events,
1:02
Speaker 1: even if they're happening during football season. We have a
1:05
Speaker 1: special guest coming on to talk about Breeders Cup. But
1:10
Speaker 1: first from Boyd Gaming representing all the books they represent
1:17
Speaker 1: in the state of Nevada and throughout the country. Mr
1:20
Speaker 1: Bob Scucci, what is going on, buddy, how the usual?
1:41
Speaker 1: I mean, we got everything going on all the same time.
1:43
Speaker 1: It's a great time of year. Got Breeders Cup this
1:47
Speaker 1: this weekend, and football, basketball, baseball, hockey, you name it,
1:51
Speaker 1: we got it. Hey, Let's let me ask you a question,
1:53
Speaker 1: because we got someone coming on for the Breeders Cup
1:55
Speaker 1: in a little bit. And what I want to know
1:58
Speaker 1: is in the mid a football season, like Breeders Cup,
2:04
Speaker 1: how much attention is that going to get? Quite a bit?
2:07
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't know how much crossover there is,
2:09
Speaker 1: just you know from the football fans that that you know,
2:12
Speaker 1: will suddenly like horse racing. But especially in Nevada where
2:17
Speaker 1: the race books are right in the sports books themselves, Um,
2:21
Speaker 1: you can't help but be around it. And if you
2:23
Speaker 1: see race after race, I mean even the casual sports
2:26
Speaker 1: better is going to want to put a few dollars
2:28
Speaker 1: on one of these horse races, knowing that the biggest
2:30
Speaker 1: races in the world. You know what's big, what's big
2:37
Speaker 1: betting on the NFL? You know what's you know what's
2:41
Speaker 1: really painful? What's that betting on the NFL. Yeah, it's tough,
2:49
Speaker 1: man Like, it's it's a really hard thing, you know,
2:52
Speaker 1: I'm betting every game. You can follow along in the
2:54
Speaker 1: Action Network gap to fifty six or bust. I am
2:57
Speaker 1: betting every single game you can bet in the NFL.
3:01
Speaker 1: Um My record this year is what is my overall
3:06
Speaker 1: record right now? NFL? I am and fifty three on
3:12
Speaker 1: the year. That is fifty six point two. You can
3:16
Speaker 1: follow that in the Action Network app to or bust.
3:19
Speaker 1: But last weekend was rough man. I went six and eight,
3:22
Speaker 1: and I needed miracles from the Packers on Sunday night
3:28
Speaker 1: and the officials on Monday night so the Dolphins would cover.
3:32
Speaker 1: Like it is just gut wrenching, like to see the
3:37
Speaker 1: refs in that Bucks game blow the game, to see
3:41
Speaker 1: the refs in that Browns game blow the game with
3:44
Speaker 1: just bad, bad calls, isn't me? Do you feel like
3:49
Speaker 1: refs are having a bigger impact on betting this year
3:51
Speaker 1: than normally? I think I'm biased because I've always felt
3:55
Speaker 1: that refs had a significant influence in the game, And
3:58
Speaker 1: maybe that just comes from watching thirty thousand games over
4:01
Speaker 1: a career, but I've always felt that they've had a
4:04
Speaker 1: huge impact. So no different than normal. This was the
4:08
Speaker 1: first weekend like where normally you get a sense it's Stucky,
4:13
Speaker 1: one of the guys at the Action Network and they
4:15
Speaker 1: host a great podcast, the Action Network podcast Go Downloaded,
4:19
Speaker 1: and Stucky and Colin Wilson who hosts the Colleges podcast. Uh.
4:25
Speaker 1: Stucky will always grate his games based on sort of
4:29
Speaker 1: the final score, but also luck and like did the
4:33
Speaker 1: game go as he planned? Did the game not go
4:35
Speaker 1: as he planned? What did you miss? And what happened
4:38
Speaker 1: just because of luck wins or losses. And I feel
4:41
Speaker 1: like this was the first weekend where I had bad luck.
4:45
Speaker 1: It was a first and that's not bad. Like eight
4:47
Speaker 1: weeks in to have bad luck where I really felt like, oh,
4:50
Speaker 1: those were some bad beats. Like I had not had
4:52
Speaker 1: a weekend like that yet, and now more than ever,
4:55
Speaker 1: it's making me sad. Well, the right side to the
5:01
Speaker 1: winning side, So you gotta you gotta take luck into account.
5:05
Speaker 1: A wise man once said, the right side is the
5:08
Speaker 1: winning side. Scooch. Thursday night, we have an undefeated San
5:12
Speaker 1: Francisco forty Niners team traveling in Arizona. A surprising three
5:16
Speaker 1: four and one. UM did not cover for people last
5:19
Speaker 1: week against the Saints is ten point dogs, which I
5:21
Speaker 1: think people thought they would UM again they are ten
5:24
Speaker 1: point dogs at home, this time against the San Francisco
5:28
Speaker 1: forty Niners, who are juggernauts, like absolute juggernauts. I thought
5:34
Speaker 1: I thought they might lose to the Panthers this past weekend.
5:37
Speaker 1: I was so all over the Panthers in that side,
5:39
Speaker 1: and yet and yet, Scooch, they hung up fifty freaking points,
5:45
Speaker 1: a fifty burger on that team. Yeah. We keep talking
5:51
Speaker 1: about how we have to keep adjusting lines on the
5:55
Speaker 1: forty Niners, and I was at the point last week
5:57
Speaker 1: where I said, I just can't adjust too many hire.
6:00
Speaker 1: You know, I had them ranked, you know, just behind
6:02
Speaker 1: the Saints, and and now I think we just have
6:06
Speaker 1: to put them just kind of even with the Saints.
6:08
Speaker 1: I mean, if they play the games, to pick them
6:11
Speaker 1: now and just really just uh, whoever's got the home
6:14
Speaker 1: field is going to be the favorite in that matchup.
6:17
Speaker 1: But I mean this line, prior to last Sunday, this
6:22
Speaker 1: line would have been seven, seven and a half. And
6:25
Speaker 1: even though I keep saying I'm not going to adjust
6:27
Speaker 1: the Niners, I didn't. We hung eight on this game
6:30
Speaker 1: and we just let the money drive it up to ten.
6:32
Speaker 1: I think it's another situation where the values on the Cardinals.
6:36
Speaker 1: As much as you hate to say that, I mean,
6:39
Speaker 1: the Cardinals played the Saints last week and that line
6:41
Speaker 1: closed twelve and a half. So, uh, it's almost saying
6:46
Speaker 1: that the Niners are laying as much on the road
6:49
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals as the Saints laid at home against
6:53
Speaker 1: the Cardinals. So I mean that just shows how inflated
6:56
Speaker 1: this line has become. But you know, you look at
6:59
Speaker 1: the ticket count and it's like twenty to one, one
7:03
Speaker 1: of the biggest I've seen all year in terms of
7:05
Speaker 1: just being lopsided. This will be one of the biggest
7:08
Speaker 1: decisions we've had in a long time. I hate that
7:11
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to hold my nose in bet the Cardinals. Yeah,
7:16
Speaker 1: no matter what we do, the car is, like you said,
7:19
Speaker 1: just juggernauts, just weekend week out. Why not just keep
7:22
Speaker 1: betting on them that you're you're the casual fan. Um,
7:26
Speaker 1: you know, there's no reason not to to let off
7:28
Speaker 1: of it now. I mean, they've been covering for you
7:30
Speaker 1: every week except I think maybe one possibly to opt
7:34
Speaker 1: to go back. But they just cover every week and convincingly.
7:37
Speaker 1: I mean, you're never you're never even sweating in these games.
7:39
Speaker 1: So yeah, We're gonna be huge Cardinal fans. So frustrating.
7:45
Speaker 1: It's so so frustrating. You know who else is frustrating
7:49
Speaker 1: The Houston Texans who are playing the Jags in London
7:53
Speaker 1: this weekend. It's a nine thirty game, which we love,
7:55
Speaker 1: like nothing better than a nine thirty game. I hate
7:57
Speaker 1: these London games where they're starting at one o'clock. Give
8:00
Speaker 1: me football. Like when I'm waking up and I'm doing
8:04
Speaker 1: laundry and there's a pile of it on my bed
8:07
Speaker 1: and I'm folding it and no one's bothering me, and
8:10
Speaker 1: I have to say to stay my wife. I'm like,
8:12
Speaker 1: I'm working, okay, Yeah, I'm gonna be working from nine
8:17
Speaker 1: thirty am until midnight watching football. There will be no break,
8:21
Speaker 1: maybe from like seven thirty to eight thirty, you know,
8:26
Speaker 1: depending on if the late games go really late. Maybe
8:29
Speaker 1: I'll be available. Other than that, I'm watching the Texans
8:32
Speaker 1: and the Jags. I'm seeing the Texans is one a
8:34
Speaker 1: half point favorites. I don't know about that one. Yeah,
8:38
Speaker 1: so I guess on the East coast, nine thirties decent start.
8:41
Speaker 1: But on the West Coast at six thirty am and
8:44
Speaker 1: nobody wants to get up that early on Sunday morning.
8:47
Speaker 1: So typically we don't see a whole lot of action
8:49
Speaker 1: on the six thirty games here on the West Coast
8:52
Speaker 1: and in Las Vegas. There's some people that have interested
8:55
Speaker 1: if it's a big matchup, they'll bet on it the
8:57
Speaker 1: night before. But for some reason, the the A S
9:00
Speaker 1: the South just doesn't draw a lot of interest. Even
9:02
Speaker 1: with it's kind of like all these teams there's there's
9:05
Speaker 1: maybe three three and a half points that separate them
9:08
Speaker 1: in power ranking, so it's like one A, one B,
9:11
Speaker 1: one C and one D like they're all entries and
9:14
Speaker 1: anytime they play each other, that's only a couple of points.
9:17
Speaker 1: Uh in terms of the point spread is only a
9:19
Speaker 1: couple of points different, So very competitive game ticket count
9:22
Speaker 1: slightly heavier on the Texans. Now without J. J. Watt,
9:26
Speaker 1: I mean that's going to affect just kind of the
9:27
Speaker 1: recreational casual fan who you know that that's one name
9:31
Speaker 1: they recognize and they'll either they'll either bet the Jags
9:34
Speaker 1: or kind of lay off the game. It was not
9:36
Speaker 1: that long. J. J. Watt was worth a point or
9:41
Speaker 1: a point in a half against the points bread and
9:42
Speaker 1: he was the only defensive player who commanded that kind
9:47
Speaker 1: of respect and carried that kind of weight. Yeah, it
9:51
Speaker 1: wasn't long ago. And but you know the problem he
9:52
Speaker 1: has been dealing with so many injuries. It's almost like
9:55
Speaker 1: the teams have to play without them as much as
9:57
Speaker 1: they as they played with them. So, um, you see
10:01
Speaker 1: the value shrink over time, and that's usually typical with
10:04
Speaker 1: any player that's that's kind of injury plagued. I don't
10:08
Speaker 1: like that game, but I feel like I'm going to
10:10
Speaker 1: have to bet the Texans in it. We we've been
10:13
Speaker 1: kind of had a pretty good beat on this Texas
10:15
Speaker 1: team in terms of kind of shading them when we
10:18
Speaker 1: feel it's a bad spot for them and they come
10:20
Speaker 1: up short, and then um being kind of heavy on
10:24
Speaker 1: them when when when they play well. So I think
10:26
Speaker 1: this is a good line for us. I don't think
10:29
Speaker 1: we'll see much movement in this one. But uh, maybe
10:33
Speaker 1: I haven't been given the Jacks enough credit that they
10:35
Speaker 1: have surprised me in a few games. You and I
10:37
Speaker 1: joke all the time that like those a f C
10:39
Speaker 1: South teams and those teams that are generally in the
10:42
Speaker 1: Southeast where college football means everything, are the most sort
10:45
Speaker 1: of nondescript, lacking in cultural cash, a, lacking in fan base,
10:53
Speaker 1: lacking in passion, lacking any anything that is sort of identifiable.
10:58
Speaker 1: Right like, it's it's the helmet theory, the Titans, the Jaguars,
11:04
Speaker 1: the Texans. For the life of me, right now, I
11:07
Speaker 1: cannot tell you the fourth team in the a f
11:09
Speaker 1: C South Like, Honest to god, if I like, I
11:13
Speaker 1: wouldn't need to look it up right now, I have
11:15
Speaker 1: no idea who it is, all right, the Colts. The
11:21
Speaker 1: only team that has any sort of history or any
11:24
Speaker 1: weight or sway with the public is the team that
11:27
Speaker 1: I can remember. That's how little this conference, this division matters.
11:31
Speaker 1: It really doesn't. They need more separation. It does seem
11:34
Speaker 1: like all their uniforms are so nondiscribed. They all need
11:37
Speaker 1: distinguishable They need to get better uniforms. I agree with
11:40
Speaker 1: you that they all feel like they are the only
11:42
Speaker 1: one that that has any sort of like, that feels
11:46
Speaker 1: like it has gravitas, like all the other ones feel
11:49
Speaker 1: like those fake uniforms you get in movies and commercials
11:52
Speaker 1: when people can't use real NFL I P So they
11:56
Speaker 1: they make up what uniforms look like. That's what all
11:59
Speaker 1: these other uniforms look like yeah, like like what al
12:02
Speaker 1: Pacino in any given Sunday and they're like, I don't
12:05
Speaker 1: all the Sharks or something. That's exactly what it is.
12:07
Speaker 1: Like they they're all it's like they're all wearing like
12:10
Speaker 1: you know, XFL uniforms or any or North Dallas forty
12:14
Speaker 1: or any given Sunday or you know, commercials for Samsung
12:17
Speaker 1: TVs exactly exactly. I'm with you there. Do you know
12:23
Speaker 1: what else I hate other than the a f C
12:25
Speaker 1: South What Chicago Bears? Why the fuck does Matt Nagy?
12:31
Speaker 1: Why does he think that kicking a forty year old
12:34
Speaker 1: yard field goal is good enough? He did the same
12:37
Speaker 1: thing in the playoffs last year, like he will just
12:40
Speaker 1: decide you get you know, hey, we're within fifty five
12:44
Speaker 1: yards of a field goal, let's just kneel, like, let's
12:48
Speaker 1: give up getting any more yardage. He did the same
12:50
Speaker 1: thing last year in the playoffs the Bears lost. He
12:53
Speaker 1: did the same thing this past week against the Chargers,
12:56
Speaker 1: an offense that is so dreadful it's painful, painful. Of
13:00
Speaker 1: Buddy Mine was at the game. He lives in California
13:03
Speaker 1: and it's a second game he's been to with the Bears,
13:06
Speaker 1: and he texted me, He's like, I've seen six quarters
13:09
Speaker 1: of Bears football and zero Bears touchdowns. He texted me
13:12
Speaker 1: at halftime. This team, this coach, this quarterback, they are
13:17
Speaker 1: adrift in a sea of mediocrity to stink and bad
13:23
Speaker 1: decision making and regret, regret that they don't have Christian McCaffrey.
13:27
Speaker 1: They don't have Patrick Mahomes, they don't have Deshaun Watson.
13:31
Speaker 1: They got Mitchell fucking true Bisky and David Montgomery. That's
13:36
Speaker 1: who they got. Yeah, it's it reminds me of like
13:41
Speaker 1: the year after the Falcons came up short against the
13:43
Speaker 1: nine the Patriots, and then the year after that they
13:47
Speaker 1: were just done and they've been done ever since. And
13:51
Speaker 1: we look at the Bears season last year and how
13:53
Speaker 1: close they came, and instead of getting up to the
13:56
Speaker 1: next level, they've regressed so far back. It's just it's
13:59
Speaker 1: ridic killis and and the coach, I mean, to your
14:01
Speaker 1: point of of relying on a long field goal, I mean,
14:05
Speaker 1: he didn't even check with the kicker to see that
14:07
Speaker 1: he prefers kicking from the middle instead of the left
14:10
Speaker 1: hash mark, and and then he misses it left. I
14:12
Speaker 1: mean they're just bad coaching all the way around. I mean,
14:15
Speaker 1: the potential is there because of the talent of some
14:18
Speaker 1: of the players, but uh, they're just on a downward spiral.
14:23
Speaker 1: And and now they're they're facing an Eagles team that
14:27
Speaker 1: put together one of their better games of the year.
14:29
Speaker 1: We actually liked them against the Bills last week and
14:32
Speaker 1: tried to shade the line to draw a lot of
14:34
Speaker 1: Bills money there. Uh, here they are laying five and
14:37
Speaker 1: a half, and we've actually got pretty good two ways,
14:40
Speaker 1: to be honest with you. I mean, the public is
14:42
Speaker 1: on the Eagles that about maybe a two to one ratio,
14:45
Speaker 1: But you know, we we kind of bounced between five
14:48
Speaker 1: and five and a half and we've got some decent
14:50
Speaker 1: money on both sides. So some of the some of
14:54
Speaker 1: the sharp guys are actually taking the five and a
14:56
Speaker 1: half with embarrassed. Well, I was going to say all
14:58
Speaker 1: that said my whole rant. The Bears are the right
15:02
Speaker 1: side in this game. Here you go. You gotta bet
15:07
Speaker 1: on these teams, you gotta, I mean, that's where the
15:09
Speaker 1: value is. I mean, especially the worst a team looks,
15:12
Speaker 1: the more the power rankings and the lines are going
15:14
Speaker 1: to shift away from that direction. So at some point
15:17
Speaker 1: you have to get some value on them. Kansas City
15:20
Speaker 1: is a two and a half point favorite over the
15:21
Speaker 1: Vikings at home. I'm assuming you believe Patrick Mahomes is
15:27
Speaker 1: going to play um, but tell me what the plan
15:31
Speaker 1: is here? Yeah, that it's kind of in the middle, actually,
15:34
Speaker 1: so I think you know, with Mahomes definitely in, this
15:37
Speaker 1: line goes up to three, three and a half. Without Mahomes,
15:41
Speaker 1: you're kind of looking at a similar line. Is what
15:43
Speaker 1: we saw with Green Bay Kansas City last week, Minnesota
15:46
Speaker 1: being as high as maybe a two and a half,
15:48
Speaker 1: possibly even a three point favorite. So in this case,
15:52
Speaker 1: we're seeing probably it's going to be about a six
15:54
Speaker 1: point line differential with him definitely in or definitely out,
15:58
Speaker 1: we still have to take into consideration and he's not regardless,
16:02
Speaker 1: so we're not getting the best Mahomes even if he
16:04
Speaker 1: does play. So that is, you know, one of the
16:08
Speaker 1: factors in this one. Washington visiting Buffalo. I felt like,
16:16
Speaker 1: and Buffalo is a nine and a half point favorite.
16:18
Speaker 1: I felt like the Eagles were the prime spot last week.
16:20
Speaker 1: I think you did too. Do we think Buffalo was
16:24
Speaker 1: just in a bad spot and like they're they're actually
16:28
Speaker 1: a decent team or do we think that they've been
16:31
Speaker 1: overvalued all year? Well, I think they have a decent
16:36
Speaker 1: defense and the offense is still suspect and there's nothing
16:40
Speaker 1: to indicate that kind of anything's changed in the last
16:43
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. There. Um, I do think they're they're
16:47
Speaker 1: good teams, so to be a sizeable favorite is you know,
16:51
Speaker 1: to be expected in this game. But I think the
16:55
Speaker 1: Sharper guys are going to take the points in this one,
16:57
Speaker 1: so um, it's enough points to this way the general public,
17:02
Speaker 1: I don't think they have enough confidence in the team
17:05
Speaker 1: like the Bills, like they do some of you know
17:07
Speaker 1: the teams like the Patriots and the forty niners and
17:10
Speaker 1: you know the Seahawks or Rams where they don't mind
17:12
Speaker 1: laying more than a touchdown. But to late ten points
17:16
Speaker 1: with the Bills, I think. I think more people are
17:20
Speaker 1: gonna kind of gravitate towards the Redskins in this one.
17:23
Speaker 1: I think so too. I think so too, And it's weird, weird.
17:28
Speaker 1: I think the Bills are gonna crush them. You know, uh,
17:31
Speaker 1: who's traveling Our favorite team, the Indianapolis Colts are traveling
17:36
Speaker 1: to Pittsburgh and there are one point favorites right now.
17:41
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, Juggernauts Indianapolis, Yeah yeah for sure. Yeah. Well,
17:52
Speaker 1: the Cults have just been a team that's been drawing
17:55
Speaker 1: action either on them or against them all years. So
17:58
Speaker 1: these have been real intriguing game games. Uh. And the Steelers,
18:02
Speaker 1: I think even people that have been generally Steelers fans
18:06
Speaker 1: over many years, and they have a huge following, I
18:09
Speaker 1: think they just can't quite figure out what to do
18:13
Speaker 1: with this team. Uh, you know, without a premier quarterback,
18:17
Speaker 1: so you know the money is going to be coming
18:20
Speaker 1: on the Colts. We did already get a couple couple
18:23
Speaker 1: of plays. I could see this line moving up right
18:25
Speaker 1: now where the Colts minus one, but I can definitely
18:28
Speaker 1: see this line moving up to kind of two, possibly
18:32
Speaker 1: even two and a half. I don't think the Sharp
18:34
Speaker 1: guys will get involved in this. I don't think they're
18:36
Speaker 1: they're seeing anything on the Steelers, even as short home
18:39
Speaker 1: dogs that would make them want to come in on
18:40
Speaker 1: this one. So I think this one might be one
18:42
Speaker 1: where it's just all Colts both ways. Well, look, tickets
18:46
Speaker 1: right now are coming in on the Colds. It is
18:49
Speaker 1: going to get dangerously close to that scenario where you've
18:53
Speaker 1: got of the tickets and on a road favorite, and
18:58
Speaker 1: I as a as a this guy and all the
19:01
Speaker 1: other moments out there are going to be compelled to
19:04
Speaker 1: bet on the Steelers, and I wouldn't mind it. Like
19:07
Speaker 1: the Colts, I think they're a well coached team, but
19:11
Speaker 1: I'm not sure they're a very good team. Yeah, you know,
19:17
Speaker 1: I I agree with that. Um, they have some talent
19:19
Speaker 1: and and Burset has just been really effective. So um.
19:25
Speaker 1: And on the other side, the Steelers, like they said that,
19:27
Speaker 1: I mean, going down fourteen nothing against the Dolphins is
19:30
Speaker 1: a fourteen point favorite. You know, didn't instill any confidence
19:33
Speaker 1: in anybody, even though they did come back to almost
19:35
Speaker 1: cover that one. But the public either stays away or
19:40
Speaker 1: probably bets on the Colts. Um. And this is a week,
19:44
Speaker 1: This is a week with a lot of short road
19:48
Speaker 1: dogs with good teams, and that usually spells disaster for
19:52
Speaker 1: the books, meaning it could be a week where the
19:55
Speaker 1: general public has a has a big week. And I'll
19:58
Speaker 1: give you a kind of a a statistic that is
20:01
Speaker 1: completely non scientific and it's probably a little biased, but
20:06
Speaker 1: in my recent memory, Breeder's Cup weekend has not been
20:09
Speaker 1: a good weekend for the books and it seems like
20:12
Speaker 1: you have, at least in Las Vegas, where you have
20:14
Speaker 1: people in the in the book, it's it's busy. They're
20:17
Speaker 1: bent horse racing and they see these short home uh,
20:21
Speaker 1: these short road dogs, and they just bet on them,
20:24
Speaker 1: just looking and say, oh, Packers are only laying three
20:27
Speaker 1: or Patriots were only laying three and a half, and
20:28
Speaker 1: it looks like an automatic play. And the last few
20:31
Speaker 1: years Breeders Cup weekend has been an extremely public weekend.
20:34
Speaker 1: Just seems the way that the schedule falls, and it
20:37
Speaker 1: seems to be no different. Listen, Scares. I don't know
20:39
Speaker 1: if you know this, but at the Action Network, we're
20:42
Speaker 1: in the hunch and biased business. We're not in the
20:44
Speaker 1: data and analytics business. So anytime you want to bring
20:47
Speaker 1: that kind of like cold hardtake onto the podcast, you're
20:51
Speaker 1: more than welcome. Yeah, nice, thank you. Listen. Um, we
20:55
Speaker 1: have the out Pacino Coast coached Tennessee Sharks visiting the
21:02
Speaker 1: the the Robert De Niro coached Carolina Ponies and they're
21:06
Speaker 1: playing for the Pantheon Cup. Yeah, that's about the size
21:11
Speaker 1: of the very little action on this game. I mean,
21:14
Speaker 1: all the bets on this one are just parlay's and
21:16
Speaker 1: a little slightly heavier on the Panthers because they're laying
21:19
Speaker 1: three and a half but almost no money on this game.
21:22
Speaker 1: This is especially with the Panthers coming off of that
21:25
Speaker 1: kind of annihilation last week at the hands of the
21:28
Speaker 1: forty niners. No one's going to become anxious to kind
21:31
Speaker 1: of put their money on them this week. Um going
21:34
Speaker 1: up against the Titans team who came out of the
21:36
Speaker 1: gate looking real strong, putting up forty one points against
21:39
Speaker 1: Cleveland and then just doing nothing significant Since then, we
21:42
Speaker 1: got a couple of wins, but in some close games.
21:45
Speaker 1: Again nothing to get the public excited about. So this
21:49
Speaker 1: will be one of the corner TV games. The Jets
21:53
Speaker 1: are visiting to the Dolphins. What is the money line
21:57
Speaker 1: on this right now for the for the Dolphins and
22:00
Speaker 1: they're getting plus one I. If the Dolphins are gonna
22:04
Speaker 1: win any game, it's this game against the Jets team
22:09
Speaker 1: that is a freaking mess. Levian Bell might get traded.
22:12
Speaker 1: Jamal Adams might get traded. Sam Donald has not stopped
22:16
Speaker 1: seeing ghosts. Robby Anderson might get traded. Everybody hates the GM.
22:20
Speaker 1: Adam gaze looks like a guy who they never should
22:24
Speaker 1: have get given the job to and the only people
22:25
Speaker 1: who thought he should have the job are the owners
22:28
Speaker 1: who are too stupid to know the difference between Adam
22:30
Speaker 1: Gates and an actual professional head football coach. Like this
22:34
Speaker 1: team is a wreck. This team is is an absolute wreck.
22:40
Speaker 1: And the Dolphins got some spirit and they got some fight,
22:44
Speaker 1: and they have gotten progressively harder to play every single week.
22:49
Speaker 1: They just have like their challenges. They don't have the talent,
22:52
Speaker 1: but they're not lacking in heart. And I think they're
22:54
Speaker 1: playing a team that is as sort of diminished in
22:59
Speaker 1: talent as they are. Give me the Dolphins plus Yeah,
23:04
Speaker 1: I think the sharp guys agree with you here. Uh,
23:07
Speaker 1: nobody's getting excited about getting the Jet and betting on
23:10
Speaker 1: the Jets. But the Dolphins are in a lot of games.
23:13
Speaker 1: And Okay, they cover against the Steelers, they cover against
23:17
Speaker 1: the Niners, they cover against the Redskins. I mean they've
23:20
Speaker 1: got three covers in a row. After coming out of
23:23
Speaker 1: the Gates saying that you know they're they're going to
23:26
Speaker 1: tank the season and unload their players, and they still
23:29
Speaker 1: made some bad this. I didn't understand the decision this
23:32
Speaker 1: week too, Uh, to get a key to leave and
23:35
Speaker 1: get rid of a fifth rounder and a seventh rounder
23:38
Speaker 1: to the Rams. But and you wonder just how much
23:40
Speaker 1: a lot of that still is affecting morale. But they
23:42
Speaker 1: do have probably more fight than what we've seen from
23:46
Speaker 1: the Jets since that Cowboys win. So uh, it's an
23:49
Speaker 1: intriguing game. And the sharp guys are with you. They're
23:51
Speaker 1: taking the points with the Dolphins, and and they're actually
23:54
Speaker 1: taking them a little bit on the money line as well.
23:57
Speaker 1: There we go there. Oh my god, I am a
24:00
Speaker 1: wise guy. Imagine that, because you've got to be professional
24:03
Speaker 1: to recognize that this is the spot for the Dolphins. Yep,
24:07
Speaker 1: yep um. The Tampa Bay Zealots of the doesn't really
24:15
Speaker 1: matter football league are visiting a real football team, the
24:18
Speaker 1: Seattle Seahawks. Uh, there's six point underdogs going to Seattle.
24:23
Speaker 1: How do you bet against Russell Wilson at this point?
24:25
Speaker 1: Although I will say, now that I think about it,
24:30
Speaker 1: this feels like the week where you want to bet
24:35
Speaker 1: on famous Jambus because he was so bad last week. Well,
24:39
Speaker 1: once again, the sharp guys agree with you. There. We
24:42
Speaker 1: opened the game six and a half and a couple
24:45
Speaker 1: of our biggest bets of the of the week so
24:47
Speaker 1: far had been on the Buccaneers. So it's one of
24:51
Speaker 1: our biggest decisions as of right now. It's it's one
24:55
Speaker 1: of our biggest decisions that we need the Seahawks. But
24:58
Speaker 1: I would expect in the coming days that the public
25:01
Speaker 1: is going to still be on the Seahawks. Lay in
25:04
Speaker 1: the six. I think the sharp guys might actually drive
25:07
Speaker 1: this down to five and a half or lower. So
25:09
Speaker 1: if you're going to bet the Seahawks, it's one of
25:11
Speaker 1: the rare instances where you kinda bet the favorite late
25:16
Speaker 1: because if you're if you're looking at the betting on
25:18
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers, you want to grab that six now while
25:21
Speaker 1: you can. I guess that's what I'm gonna have to do.
25:25
Speaker 1: If if I were a betting man, I guess that's
25:27
Speaker 1: what I would do. But I agree that's the side
25:29
Speaker 1: you want to be on. Detroit at Oakland Oakland minus two. Listen,
25:34
Speaker 1: I've been on Detroit most of the year. I actually
25:37
Speaker 1: like this team a lot, but Oakland showing up, you know,
25:43
Speaker 1: like short, Oakland is a short home favorite. With which
25:48
Speaker 1: which car brother is it? Is it Derek Carr with
25:50
Speaker 1: Derek Carr actually playing decent football and being accurate and
25:56
Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs as a powerhouse running back. I don't mind
26:01
Speaker 1: open is a short home favorite. Start start move, Millman
26:04
Speaker 1: moved go Yeah, two weeks in a row where the
26:08
Speaker 1: Raiders really should have gotten to win. You know, I
26:10
Speaker 1: love the Raiders a couple of weeks ago against green
26:13
Speaker 1: Bay and you know, I know you can't take much
26:15
Speaker 1: from just three quarters, but they didn't really just looked
26:18
Speaker 1: alive until Derek Carr fumbled that ball against green Bay
26:21
Speaker 1: going into the end zone. And then last week they
26:24
Speaker 1: had that game in hand. I mean that talk about
26:26
Speaker 1: the right side with the wrong result. That was one
26:28
Speaker 1: of them. They still get the cover easily last week,
26:31
Speaker 1: but there was another one they should have won the game.
26:35
Speaker 1: I do like this Raiders team, and I like the
26:39
Speaker 1: Lions a lot more. Early in the year. They're starting
26:42
Speaker 1: to kind of plateau a little bit, So I think
26:45
Speaker 1: this is a real good spot for the Raiders, and
26:48
Speaker 1: I wouldn't mind taking a little Lions money in this one,
26:51
Speaker 1: but right now it's kind of dead even. But I
26:55
Speaker 1: think this Lion has a better chance of going to
26:57
Speaker 1: three on the Raiders than it does moving towards pit.
27:02
Speaker 1: So get it while it's short. As they might say
27:06
Speaker 1: in the betting business. Yes, sir, did I just make
27:10
Speaker 1: something up? Did I make it up? Get something? While
27:15
Speaker 1: it's short doesn't have a good ring to it, though,
27:17
Speaker 1: I don't want to put that on a T shirt.
27:19
Speaker 1: Get no, no, get it. While it's short, okay, still
27:23
Speaker 1: has a bad ring to it has other connotations. All
27:26
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you're like a literary critic. You spent
27:32
Speaker 1: thirty years in the dark and the smoke of the
27:35
Speaker 1: sports book. You come out into the light once a
27:39
Speaker 1: week for thirty minutes to talk to me, and all
27:41
Speaker 1: of a sudden, you feel like you can tell me
27:44
Speaker 1: what sounds good. I've written seven books, four of them
27:46
Speaker 1: best sellers, and I'm a content genius. That's what's happened.
27:51
Speaker 1: I'm reading all those moment books. Get it, well, it's short.
27:58
Speaker 1: Cleveland is a three point favorite at Denver. That Denver
28:03
Speaker 1: team is a hot mess and Cleveland. Look, they didn't
28:08
Speaker 1: look great against the Patriots, but that was the right
28:10
Speaker 1: side and they got burned by a couple of phantom
28:14
Speaker 1: p I calls. Yeah, I agree with you there, and
28:19
Speaker 1: you talk about a team that really should have won
28:21
Speaker 1: last week and didn't. The Broncos had that game against
28:24
Speaker 1: the Colts and then they let the Colts. Uh, I
28:28
Speaker 1: don't know how with seconds left. I mean they had
28:31
Speaker 1: Jacoby bur said, I think von Miller had him in
28:33
Speaker 1: the grass in his own end zone with like thirty
28:36
Speaker 1: a minute left in the game, couldn't bring him down.
28:39
Speaker 1: They let him throw for like thirty yards, drive down,
28:43
Speaker 1: kicked the game winning field goal. Um. This Broncos team
28:46
Speaker 1: is just I mean they that's I think I can
28:49
Speaker 1: count five games now where they lost in similar fashions
28:52
Speaker 1: this year that they probably should have won. But you
28:55
Speaker 1: can't keep saying that every week. You know, they should
28:57
Speaker 1: have won this game, they should have won that game.
28:59
Speaker 1: They're only getting a few a goal in this one
29:00
Speaker 1: against a much better Browns team. Um, the sharp guys
29:04
Speaker 1: agree with you. They're on the Browns at minus three.
29:06
Speaker 1: We went to three months twenty. If anything, I see
29:09
Speaker 1: the line going up on the Browns. I feel like
29:11
Speaker 1: the window on this team could be five and two,
29:16
Speaker 1: not two and five. Is say, five weeks. You sort
29:21
Speaker 1: of get the benefit of the doubt. We're like, hey,
29:23
Speaker 1: you look back on the record, and they lost two
29:25
Speaker 1: games in the last second, and then they won two
29:27
Speaker 1: games and two games they just didn't look good, but
29:29
Speaker 1: they could easily be foreign to not to not you know,
29:32
Speaker 1: two and four, I feel like you run out of
29:34
Speaker 1: that is sort of like something you can bank on
29:36
Speaker 1: as a team to buoy your your your players. Yeah,
29:43
Speaker 1: they did get they did get the cover though last week.
29:45
Speaker 1: I mean, what were they getting like six points in
29:48
Speaker 1: that game last week that they probably should have won
29:50
Speaker 1: out right, So they did cover fairly easy. And in
29:53
Speaker 1: our game, it's more about covering than winning. So there
29:56
Speaker 1: you have it. Whatever did? Uh? Green Bay on the
30:02
Speaker 1: road three and a half point favorites at the Los
30:05
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers, which is not really like um being on
30:11
Speaker 1: the road at all. It's not this Charger team has
30:15
Speaker 1: no home field advantage really, and I'm sure there's gonna
30:17
Speaker 1: be more Packers in the Packers fans in the stadium
30:20
Speaker 1: than there are Chargers. But great action on this one. Obviously,
30:24
Speaker 1: the public is all over the Packers and this one
30:27
Speaker 1: at a huge rate. Maybe about of the tickets are
30:32
Speaker 1: on the Packers. Um. But we did get some some
30:36
Speaker 1: pretty big action on the Chargers at plus three and
30:38
Speaker 1: a half. But then we even got bigger action on
30:41
Speaker 1: the Packers at minus three and a half. So, like
30:44
Speaker 1: I said, a lot of action both ways. Obviously one
30:46
Speaker 1: of the later games of the day. So it's gonna
30:48
Speaker 1: be a huge with a good team like the Packers,
30:52
Speaker 1: um with. It's going to be the highest profile of
30:55
Speaker 1: game of the afternoon for us. Uh, you know, not
30:59
Speaker 1: including the game of the Patriots Ravens, but of the
31:02
Speaker 1: rest of the games, it's gonna be a big decision
31:05
Speaker 1: for us. We're going to need the Chargers. Speaking of
31:07
Speaker 1: the Patriots Ravens, the Patriots are three and a half
31:09
Speaker 1: point favorites in Baltimore. My friends Stucky I mentioned earlier
31:14
Speaker 1: action at our podcast and by the way, everything I
31:16
Speaker 1: look at in terms of the data where I talk
31:18
Speaker 1: about the betting percentages, money percentages, lines, etcetera. You can
31:22
Speaker 1: get it all in the Action Network app downloaded for free.
31:24
Speaker 1: You can also follow all my pics via Chad Millman
31:28
Speaker 1: or to fifty six or Busts Scoochy. You know that
31:32
Speaker 1: we had an app called the Action Network. I've heard
31:35
Speaker 1: of that. Yeah, it's got a pretty good reputation in
31:37
Speaker 1: your industry. Nice, do you ever want to come out
31:40
Speaker 1: of the dark. I might do that. I'll do it
31:44
Speaker 1: this week. Next week. You're gonna be live in the
31:46
Speaker 1: studio by the way. Yeah, we gotta figure out of time,
31:50
Speaker 1: but I'll be in New York. That you sound really enthusiastic.
31:53
Speaker 1: Baltimore as a three and a half point dog to
31:57
Speaker 1: the Patriots. All in on the Ravens, baby, all in.
32:01
Speaker 1: This is the game the Patriots lose, this ends their
32:05
Speaker 1: undefeated season. Yeah. Everything points to the Ravens in this one.
32:10
Speaker 1: We opened the game four. The wise guys were all
32:13
Speaker 1: over it. They took the four. We're down the three
32:15
Speaker 1: and a half. The public is all over the Patriots
32:18
Speaker 1: and this one. But it's a great spot for the Ravens.
32:22
Speaker 1: Ravens can't lose this one. Patriots undefeated season goes down
32:26
Speaker 1: on this one. And having said all that, give me
32:29
Speaker 1: the Patriots again because you just don't bet against this team.
32:32
Speaker 1: Oh my god, you are such a buzz kill. And
32:34
Speaker 1: the way you built that up, it was so clear
32:37
Speaker 1: like you were going misdirection. That was like a Matt
32:40
Speaker 1: Negy called misdirection. Everybody in the stadium knew which way
32:44
Speaker 1: you're going with that, all right, Well, you know, stastic
32:48
Speaker 1: it was intentional. Yeah, I could sense it because you
32:53
Speaker 1: were laying it down pretty thick. Yeah, it was telegraphed
32:56
Speaker 1: like everything in the Bears offense, like Robiski passes for
33:01
Speaker 1: this passes, Matt Nig's play calls, the fact they're gonna
33:04
Speaker 1: miss a fifty five yard field goal to lose a game.
33:07
Speaker 1: I'm gonna love the Ravens in this foreshadowing, foreshadowing, foreshadowing,
33:12
Speaker 1: scooterrow leed foreshadowing. Dallas is on the road against the
33:17
Speaker 1: New York Giants, their seven point favorites. Monday Night Football,
33:21
Speaker 1: give me the Giants. Yeah, another sharp guy play. Uh.
33:26
Speaker 1: You know we opened seven and a half, we went
33:28
Speaker 1: down to seven, and they're they're taking the seven. But
33:31
Speaker 1: the public is all over the Cowboys and just kind
33:34
Speaker 1: of similar again, like I said, all these road uh favorites.
33:38
Speaker 1: It seems like this weekend, first weekend of November sets
33:41
Speaker 1: up where there's just a ton of road favorites, uh,
33:43
Speaker 1: and a lot of short road favorites. But Cowboys lane seven. Um,
33:48
Speaker 1: you know, our day is really gonna come down, or
33:52
Speaker 1: our weekend, I should say, is really gonna come down
33:55
Speaker 1: to three or four games. Packers over the Chargers, Patriots
33:58
Speaker 1: over the Ravens, and then all Boys over the Giants
34:01
Speaker 1: to to cap the weekend. If that happens, every book
34:04
Speaker 1: in the country gets beat. I am seen the board
34:08
Speaker 1: so clearly right now. It's like I've never had more
34:13
Speaker 1: confidence going in a week, and then I do right now.
34:16
Speaker 1: I hope you're right because you like a lot of dogs,
34:18
Speaker 1: and that's what we need this week. That's what they've
34:21
Speaker 1: said about me for years. Scooch. You know what we're
34:26
Speaker 1: gonna do right now? What's that play a little Scooch roulette?
34:36
Speaker 1: Last week? You had the Dolphins, they covered. I had
34:38
Speaker 1: the Panthers, they did not. Therefore, Mr Scucci, Robert Scucci,
34:45
Speaker 1: you get to go first. Yeah, I'm gonna go with
34:48
Speaker 1: this Packers team. And I know I mean going up
34:53
Speaker 1: against the Chargers and having kind of no home field
34:55
Speaker 1: advantage for the Chargers, laying three and a half seems
34:58
Speaker 1: like a short price. So I'm just like goal those
35:00
Speaker 1: recreational bettors coming into the sports book seeing that short number,
35:05
Speaker 1: get a well short. I am gonna go with the
35:11
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. I'm gonna go with the Miami Dolphins on
35:18
Speaker 1: the money line. Nice, there you go. Money line movement,
35:23
Speaker 1: that's what they call. You get it. You get extra
35:26
Speaker 1: points for that because it's a money line. Yeah, so
35:28
Speaker 1: I'll win like two weeks in a row. Yeah, alright, folks, listen.
35:33
Speaker 1: Uh coming up in a few minutes, we got a
35:35
Speaker 1: special guest talking about the Breeders Cup. And then later
35:37
Speaker 1: on in the show, Simon Hunter Professional Better is gonna
35:40
Speaker 1: come on and we're gonna pick our five teams for
35:43
Speaker 1: the Super Contest. We're doing it without Danni Ravel, which
35:46
Speaker 1: means we're gonna win every game. Bob Scucci next week,
35:50
Speaker 1: live in studio, whatever time you'd like, because I want
35:54
Speaker 1: some enthusiasm when you come in. Thank you for coming
35:57
Speaker 1: on your podcast. All right, listen, we got a special
36:00
Speaker 1: guest coming up for the Breeders Cup, and this segment
36:04
Speaker 1: is sponsored by tv G, which is America's favorite legal
36:08
Speaker 1: online wagering platform for twenty years and tv G is
36:13
Speaker 1: the official wagering partner of the Breeders Cup. Everybody heard
36:16
Speaker 1: Scooch and I talking about the Breeders Cup. It is
36:19
Speaker 1: a massive weekend. The books will be so crowded wherever
36:23
Speaker 1: sports betting is legal, It's going to be an exciting weekend.
36:25
Speaker 1: Everyone gets pumped up for the Triple Crown races, right,
36:27
Speaker 1: but smart betters know that the Breeders Cup is the
36:30
Speaker 1: best bet of the year in horse racing. I know
36:32
Speaker 1: this because last year we had so much traction, so
36:35
Speaker 1: much traction against the Breeders Cup on Action Network dot Com.
36:38
Speaker 1: It's not just one race. The top horses, trainers and
36:42
Speaker 1: jockeys from around the world are getting together for an
36:45
Speaker 1: amazing weekend. Fourteen races, thirty million dollars in purses. It's
36:49
Speaker 1: likely that the horse of the year, the horse of
36:52
Speaker 1: the year will likely be crowned after this weekend at
36:57
Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup. Like I said, tv G is the
37:00
Speaker 1: official wagering partner of the Breeders Cup. It's America's favorite
37:03
Speaker 1: legal online wagering platform for twenty years, and it is
37:06
Speaker 1: a huge, huge Breeders Cup offer, a huge Breeders Cup offer.
37:12
Speaker 1: New accounts can bet up to five dollars risk free
37:18
Speaker 1: on a Breeders Cup race. People five hundred dollars risk free.
37:22
Speaker 1: That's ridiculous. They're giving you five dollars. New sign ups
37:26
Speaker 1: bet up to five dollars and if your horse doesn't win,
37:28
Speaker 1: you get the money back. Folks, horse racing at its finest,
37:35
Speaker 1: the Breeders Cup. Let's roll. Okay, coming on to talk
37:40
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup. Dave Weaver, a host and handicapper with t
37:45
Speaker 1: v G Dave I just finished telling everybody how exciting
37:48
Speaker 1: Breeders Cup weekend it is is and it is huge.
37:51
Speaker 1: Um my guest before Bob Scucci, bookmaker at the Orleans
37:55
Speaker 1: all the Boyd Gaming Books, I was talking all about
37:57
Speaker 1: how the Breeders Cup drive so much action but also
38:00
Speaker 1: makes the book that much more exciting. On over the weekend,
38:05
Speaker 1: fourteen races, thirty million dollar purse. Who's going to be
38:11
Speaker 1: the horse of the year. Well, we all know the
38:14
Speaker 1: answer to that. After the series of races. There are
38:18
Speaker 1: a couple of horses that have not lost all year long,
38:21
Speaker 1: and depending on the outcomes of what happens in these races,
38:26
Speaker 1: we're going to know. But but as a better and
38:29
Speaker 1: as better as across the country, No, there are really
38:32
Speaker 1: two days that people are paying attention to horse racing,
38:36
Speaker 1: even if they're not a big horse racing fan. Number
38:39
Speaker 1: one would be the Kentucky Derby and number two would
38:42
Speaker 1: be the Breeders Cup. So in in you know pools,
38:46
Speaker 1: betting pools. Normally that would be a hundred thousand dollars.
38:49
Speaker 1: Now we're talking millions of dollars. So there's so much
38:52
Speaker 1: money that we made this weekend. Yeah. I was actually
38:55
Speaker 1: surprised last year the Action Network. You know, obviously we're
38:58
Speaker 1: two years almost two years old, and so last year
39:01
Speaker 1: was the first year that we covered the Breeders Cup.
39:03
Speaker 1: I was shocked at how much activity, traction, uh, traffic
39:07
Speaker 1: subs we drove from the Breeders Cup. It feels like, uh,
39:14
Speaker 1: it feels like people talk about the people Crown. You
39:16
Speaker 1: say it's the second sort of most talked about race
39:18
Speaker 1: of the year. I would say, I'm not sure I
39:20
Speaker 1: believe that. I feel like it's maybe fourth. But for
39:23
Speaker 1: some fans who like are on the periphery, this is
39:27
Speaker 1: when they jump back in the pool. Yeah. And there
39:30
Speaker 1: are fourteen races. You know, the Kentucky Derby Boom, that's
39:32
Speaker 1: the one race that day. There are bigger, big races
39:35
Speaker 1: on the undercard, but this weekend with fourteen grade ones
39:38
Speaker 1: and you mentioned the thirty million dollars in purses. There.
39:41
Speaker 1: There's a horse in the in the distaff named and
39:43
Speaker 1: maybe South that's undefeated. If she wins, she's got a
39:45
Speaker 1: chance for Horse the Year. There's a horse named Bricks
39:47
Speaker 1: and Mortar that's in in the turf on Saturday, that
39:50
Speaker 1: I'm trying to beat this a big favorite. That let's
39:53
Speaker 1: put things in the sports terms for you real quick,
39:55
Speaker 1: because I know a lot of your audience are betting
39:57
Speaker 1: sports every day and not so much racing. So you know,
40:01
Speaker 1: if you're laying minus one ten on on a game,
40:04
Speaker 1: you're going fifty fifty two coin toss. And in a
40:07
Speaker 1: horse race, you know they're twelve horses in this race,
40:10
Speaker 1: So you're gonna be able to find horses that present
40:13
Speaker 1: good value, um better than than you know, plus one
40:17
Speaker 1: fifty or plus one eighty, which you're gonna see in
40:20
Speaker 1: a in a basketball game or a football game. And
40:24
Speaker 1: now we're looking at horses that are essentially, in sports
40:27
Speaker 1: bedding terms, plus two thousand plus twenty one shots to
40:33
Speaker 1: one shots. Because the horse is gonna be favored. I
40:35
Speaker 1: don't like. I don't think he deserves to be as
40:39
Speaker 1: shorter price as he's gonna be, which is probably gonna
40:41
Speaker 1: be somewhere in the even money range. And I'm gonna
40:44
Speaker 1: try to beat him. He's going further than he's ever
40:46
Speaker 1: gone before, so I believe he's gonna get tired when
40:49
Speaker 1: it comes to the top of the lane and we
40:51
Speaker 1: can beat him with a price, or some horses that
40:53
Speaker 1: are shipping in internationally from from Europe that usually have
40:57
Speaker 1: a lot of success in this race because they have
41:00
Speaker 1: the experience going the mile and a half distance. And
41:03
Speaker 1: I'm looking at a horse that came from France last
41:06
Speaker 1: time out and finished second at thirteen to one at Woodbine,
41:09
Speaker 1: So he has one race here in North America. He
41:13
Speaker 1: might be twenty or thirty to one. We're talking about
41:15
Speaker 1: the number seven horse, Al Lannach, that's gonna be race
41:18
Speaker 1: number eleven on Saturday. That would be my big price
41:21
Speaker 1: play to consider in that race. What are the other
41:23
Speaker 1: big races and you mentioned a couple of horses that
41:26
Speaker 1: people are talking about. Bob Baffort has a horse running
41:29
Speaker 1: in this race, like the big trainers are there. Break
41:32
Speaker 1: it down for me of like horses that are sort
41:37
Speaker 1: of on the popular side, like you've just discussed, and
41:40
Speaker 1: there are real chances for placing for winning. Actually, the
41:44
Speaker 1: big the big race is the Breeders Cup Classic. It's
41:46
Speaker 1: the final race on Saturday, goes race number twelve. Bob
41:49
Speaker 1: Baffort has the morning line's favorite and it's a horse
41:52
Speaker 1: local to Santa Anita, named Mackenzie that's never been worse
41:55
Speaker 1: than seconds in seven races here at Santa Anita. So
41:59
Speaker 1: he comes was back off the second place try where
42:01
Speaker 1: he's a heavy, heavy favorite last time out. Mike Smith,
42:05
Speaker 1: legendary rider, he's one over two hundred Grade one races,
42:09
Speaker 1: got fired for not riding to Bob Bafford's instructions last
42:13
Speaker 1: time out, and he's going to have a new rider
42:15
Speaker 1: and Joel Azario. So Mike Smith ends up on another horse.
42:19
Speaker 1: You know how sweet that would be if he could
42:20
Speaker 1: beat Bafford. Now I'm sure they're still friends, but business wise,
42:25
Speaker 1: you have to make these decisions in these races. And
42:27
Speaker 1: Mike Smith picks up the number five horse, Yoshida, who
42:30
Speaker 1: I actually think could beat the number eight horse Mackenzie.
42:33
Speaker 1: But Bob Bafford usually has big success on these type
42:36
Speaker 1: of days, and this is his home track at stan Anita.
42:39
Speaker 1: But I'm gonna try to beat Mackenzie. That's the Bafford
42:42
Speaker 1: horse in the race twelve, that's the Breeders Step Classic.
42:45
Speaker 1: What wasn't Mike Smith doing? What did Bob Baffor not
42:47
Speaker 1: like he was? I think he wanted him to be
42:52
Speaker 1: in front and and take this horse to lead and win.
42:55
Speaker 1: But I'm kind of on the side of Look, that
42:58
Speaker 1: was a two hundred thousand dollar purse. This is the
43:01
Speaker 1: six million dollar purse. As long as I get the
43:03
Speaker 1: lead in the race that matters, and as long as
43:06
Speaker 1: I win the race that matters, shouldn't everything be okay?
43:09
Speaker 1: But apparently not, because after finishing second in that race
43:12
Speaker 1: as the one to five favorite, Badford decided to make
43:15
Speaker 1: a change and Mike Smith no longer has them mount
43:18
Speaker 1: on McKenzie. It's so interesting in horse racing that the
43:23
Speaker 1: trainers will change the jockeys at a moment's notice, and
43:26
Speaker 1: like either it speaks to how much impact the jockeys
43:30
Speaker 1: can have in two minutes or how little the jockeys matter.
43:33
Speaker 1: Because you know, in most areas, preparation in sports, like
43:37
Speaker 1: in most events, preparation is the key. You need to
43:41
Speaker 1: be practicing, you need to be playing, you need to
43:43
Speaker 1: be getting comfortable with your teammates. In horse racing, it
43:46
Speaker 1: feels like it's the apposite. Well, you can't fire the
43:50
Speaker 1: trainer or else if you fire yourself, so the next
43:52
Speaker 1: the next scapegoat is going to be to fire the jockey.
43:55
Speaker 1: I myself would not take Mike Smith off of this horse.
43:58
Speaker 1: He he knows them very very well. He also had
44:01
Speaker 1: a questionable ride and three starts back in the metropol
44:03
Speaker 1: is a mile where he got just boxed in behind
44:05
Speaker 1: horses and wasn't able to find the seam. So maybe
44:08
Speaker 1: between that and his last start, you know, it was
44:11
Speaker 1: just time to make a change. But we'll see if
44:13
Speaker 1: it was the right move or not. All right, Dave,
44:15
Speaker 1: give me the three bets I should make this weekend.
44:17
Speaker 1: You mentioned one, give me give me them all together.
44:21
Speaker 1: So the first bet that I had already mentioned is
44:23
Speaker 1: gonna come in race number eleven on Saturday. That's the
44:27
Speaker 1: number seven horse, all Enact. That's gonna be a wind bet.
44:30
Speaker 1: This is the horse is gonna be twenty maybe thirty
44:33
Speaker 1: to one at post time. Okay, let's go earlier in
44:36
Speaker 1: the day. Race number four. It's the first Breeders Cup Race.
44:39
Speaker 1: There are three races that are steaks that are are
44:42
Speaker 1: not considered the Breeders Cup races because they're not grade ones.
44:44
Speaker 1: But the first actual Breeders Cup race on Saturday is
44:47
Speaker 1: the Breeder's Kept Filling Mayre Turf Sprints. Sorry, but he
44:50
Speaker 1: just got filling Mayor sprints. There's a horse that's gonna
44:52
Speaker 1: be over bet from the inside post name Cofefi, that
44:55
Speaker 1: is going further than I think she wants to go.
44:57
Speaker 1: She's gonna get dueled by another horse named sel Court.
45:01
Speaker 1: It's gonna set it up for a horse named Come Dancing,
45:03
Speaker 1: who's gonna sit off the pace and run right past
45:06
Speaker 1: them with about an eighth of a mile ago. That's
45:08
Speaker 1: the number four horse, fourth race, four horse Come Dancing,
45:11
Speaker 1: eleventh race, the seven horse Alannoch and then the twelfth
45:16
Speaker 1: race with the British Cup Classic. Let's get your sheet
45:19
Speaker 1: at home. Mike Smith, maybe everything happens for a reason
45:23
Speaker 1: and he ends up winning with a horse that he
45:25
Speaker 1: never thought he would be riding in that race. Oh
45:27
Speaker 1: my god, I love that. I love that you were
45:29
Speaker 1: going for Bike Smith in the Battle Royale against Bob Bafford.
45:33
Speaker 1: It feels kind of personal. Feels like you're against Bob Bafford.
45:35
Speaker 1: That's all I'm saying. I'm not. I like Bob a lot.
45:37
Speaker 1: I like Mike too, So that's fine. That's great, all right,
45:40
Speaker 1: Listen to everybody. The Breeders Cup is a great weekend
45:42
Speaker 1: of racing. Um And that's not even like in the
45:44
Speaker 1: script that I'm being told to read. It is pretty fantastic.
45:47
Speaker 1: And in a week like a fall weekend, when you're
45:49
Speaker 1: getting the NFL and you're getting the Breeders Cup, fourteen races,
45:53
Speaker 1: thirty million in purses, Go sign up, learn more tv
45:57
Speaker 1: G dot com New sign ups. You bet up to
46:00
Speaker 1: five hundred dollars and if your horse doesn't win, you
46:02
Speaker 1: get the money back five dollars new accounts, risk free
46:07
Speaker 1: offer on a Breeders Cup race. Go get a TVG
46:10
Speaker 1: dot com. It is time to make the five picks
46:15
Speaker 1: that is going to turn me into a millionaire, so
46:18
Speaker 1: I can walk around Atlantic Atlantic City like my guest
46:20
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, just dropping bags of money on the World
46:25
Speaker 1: Series tonight from whatever posh hotel he's hanging out at
46:29
Speaker 1: in a c Simon, how you doing, buddy? And now
46:36
Speaker 1: a word from a wise guy with Simon Hunter. Listen,
46:42
Speaker 1: we got rid of ravel this week, thank god. So
46:44
Speaker 1: it's just you and me. We can make educated, smart picks.
46:49
Speaker 1: None of this dolphins crap that it's going to make
46:51
Speaker 1: a sweat until the very end that Revel had even
46:53
Speaker 1: though he won, I feel like we're just we you know,
46:56
Speaker 1: we escaped with our lives in that game. Yeah, I
47:01
Speaker 1: can't believe Darren's busy day planning around the mattress guy.
47:04
Speaker 1: But I guess the millionaires have probably planes about phone,
47:06
Speaker 1: so I guess that makes sense. You can't call in.
47:08
Speaker 1: So you're so so right here the picks I'm going
47:12
Speaker 1: with right now? Okay, are you ready? And like, I
47:16
Speaker 1: know how you feel about some of these picks, because like,
47:18
Speaker 1: sharp players aren't always the right plays in the contest. Um,
47:23
Speaker 1: I love Pittsburgh, I love uh Oakland, I love Cleveland,
47:31
Speaker 1: I love Baltimore, and I think I love the Giants. Yeah, Like,
47:40
Speaker 1: I definitely I'm gonna be betting on pretty much all
47:43
Speaker 1: those games. And it's just like where you just said,
47:46
Speaker 1: like you don't always want to take the sharpest play.
47:48
Speaker 1: Like last week, I talked to the other taking Cleveland
47:51
Speaker 1: and taking green Bay just because I knew at the
47:52
Speaker 1: end of the day we'd be killing ourselves saying why
47:56
Speaker 1: did we back Baker Mayfield against Tom Brady. So it's
48:00
Speaker 1: definitely one of those for the contest, it's all about
48:03
Speaker 1: playing it a little weird and a little differently than
48:05
Speaker 1: you would normally bet. Like I texted you guys, I
48:08
Speaker 1: think at like seven am on Sunday, my my picks
48:10
Speaker 1: for the Super Contest and how we do it with
48:12
Speaker 1: our algorithms and our theories, and it was obviously we
48:16
Speaker 1: went for once so it worked out, but the one
48:18
Speaker 1: we lost with Atlanta. So anyone normal person would say
48:22
Speaker 1: that's a stupid bet to take Atlanta plus six and
48:24
Speaker 1: a half. But basically that's how you have to play
48:27
Speaker 1: the contest. You have to play it with a system
48:29
Speaker 1: and stick to that system, even if you don't even
48:30
Speaker 1: believe in yourself. So I like your heads that with
48:34
Speaker 1: a couple of them, I think for the Super Contest,
48:37
Speaker 1: I do like the Oakland side where it's they're they're
48:41
Speaker 1: coming finally coming back oben after a long run, and
48:44
Speaker 1: the lines have looked good. I mean Stafford looked good.
48:47
Speaker 1: He's played bad teams, he's played well, he's put up points. Um. Well,
48:52
Speaker 1: I like the Oakland spot coming home here. What do
48:55
Speaker 1: you what do you think about Pittsburgh that that's such
49:00
Speaker 1: a fishy line where it's like I saw it come
49:05
Speaker 1: out and I couldn't believe even before the Monday night
49:08
Speaker 1: game it was a pick um and I took I
49:12
Speaker 1: took Pittsburgh right then because I knew that it might
49:16
Speaker 1: be a good value where they could win and they
49:18
Speaker 1: maybe go up, it actually went the other way. So
49:21
Speaker 1: now they're actually a dog um and it's going to
49:24
Speaker 1: cold swist. So obviously the public is found in the Colts.
49:27
Speaker 1: But that's that's a coin flip game where I don't
49:30
Speaker 1: see much value in the line in my system. Like
49:33
Speaker 1: I got I got them at minus two Pittsburgh, so
49:37
Speaker 1: yeah again plus one, But is that really really what
49:40
Speaker 1: we want to do? We want to back Pittsburgh all
49:42
Speaker 1: you know what I'm doing. I'm taking Pittsburgh and I'm
49:45
Speaker 1: taking Clearland out of it because you're right, I don't
49:47
Speaker 1: want to back those teams. Yeah, like that. That Brown's
49:51
Speaker 1: one that that's a really funny spot where usually it
49:55
Speaker 1: does work out going against backed up qvs. But in
49:58
Speaker 1: their first spot, like we saw on Sunday and night,
50:01
Speaker 1: usually these backups their first game, they come out, most
50:04
Speaker 1: of them played pretty good. So I definitely would stay
50:07
Speaker 1: away from the Cleveland. I'd go with the Broncos there, Well,
50:12
Speaker 1: you go with the Broncos. Yeah, I'm I'm gonna be
50:15
Speaker 1: taking the Brown because I like I like this, I
50:19
Speaker 1: like their defense matchup wise against the offensive line of
50:23
Speaker 1: the Browns, like they didn't address that weakness in the
50:25
Speaker 1: trade deadline, So my ratings the Browns really haven't improved
50:29
Speaker 1: at all since the start of the season, so they're
50:31
Speaker 1: kind of one of these teams on the down slopes,
50:33
Speaker 1: So I'll be faithing them this week. Are you going
50:35
Speaker 1: to take them in the contest? Mm hmm, I might
50:41
Speaker 1: just because that might be one of the heavy ones.
50:43
Speaker 1: Like right now, the a lock for me, My contest
50:46
Speaker 1: is probably gonna be the Chargers because everybody's going to
50:49
Speaker 1: take the Green Bay line. It's a really really bad line,
50:53
Speaker 1: so it's one of those where the Chargers are probably
50:58
Speaker 1: gonnap losing, but I don't see them lose. Them buy
51:00
Speaker 1: more than the field goal, So it's kind of funny
51:02
Speaker 1: that they opened the line. He could have got green
51:07
Speaker 1: Bay and minus three, but I'm still seeing a lot
51:09
Speaker 1: of I'm seeing mainly three and a halfs now out there,
51:12
Speaker 1: so it's it's funny they're giving you the hook with
51:14
Speaker 1: the Chargers and that I don't know I could. I
51:17
Speaker 1: don't get why they didn't open this line at green
51:19
Speaker 1: Bay minus six because they would have got way more
51:22
Speaker 1: money on the chargers and they're not really getting any
51:24
Speaker 1: any money on the chargers besides sharp money. So it's
51:27
Speaker 1: kind of funny they hung that line where it's one
51:29
Speaker 1: of those they're saying, this is what we believe in
51:31
Speaker 1: and everyone could come beat on Green Bay. We're gonna
51:33
Speaker 1: believe in our own line. We're laying here. So it's
51:37
Speaker 1: it's a funny. That's what the contest is really weird,
51:39
Speaker 1: where you have to think about, like these guys I've
51:42
Speaker 1: been looking at, they like to take these these easy favorites,
51:47
Speaker 1: Like last week a lot of them were taking and
51:50
Speaker 1: it worked out for him. They were taking in Seattle
51:53
Speaker 1: and it worked out. But if you do that every week,
51:56
Speaker 1: when if the line looks too good to be true,
51:57
Speaker 1: it usually is, like we learned with Caroline the last
52:00
Speaker 1: week that that was that was a trap line. There
52:02
Speaker 1: was a reason they were giving us so many points.
52:04
Speaker 1: They were sucking us in Chargers. Okay, so here's what
52:06
Speaker 1: I'm doing so far. Chargers, Oakland, Baltimore are three picks
52:11
Speaker 1: for sure. And then you you just want to go
52:14
Speaker 1: with some chalk here to please um damn, because there's
52:17
Speaker 1: chalk I like this week. Tell me the chalk you
52:19
Speaker 1: like so I'm a nice chalk spot is Carolina. You
52:24
Speaker 1: got a team in the Titans coming in off two
52:27
Speaker 1: wins to play a team that just got demolished after
52:31
Speaker 1: by a week on the road coming home. It's a
52:34
Speaker 1: really good get right spot for Carolina. And I like
52:37
Speaker 1: the Eagles coming back home after a big win and
52:41
Speaker 1: the Bears coming in where most sharps are gonna take
52:44
Speaker 1: that five points for the Bears just because the Eagles
52:47
Speaker 1: don't look like they're you know, they don't they don't
52:50
Speaker 1: trust the was they're saying this is a good value
52:52
Speaker 1: here taking the five points. But I got the Eagles
52:54
Speaker 1: a minus seven for this game, so I think you're
52:56
Speaker 1: getting good values on the Eagles. Oh my god, I
52:59
Speaker 1: totally feel like the Bears of the right Side there,
53:01
Speaker 1: But you know what, definitely because that on paper that
53:04
Speaker 1: looks like the Bears of the smart side, but it's
53:06
Speaker 1: just you have to put the human element to it.
53:08
Speaker 1: The team does not believe as a unit in Robiski,
53:11
Speaker 1: and that's supposed to be the leader of the team.
53:13
Speaker 1: So it's one of those where, like the numbers I
53:17
Speaker 1: could see on paper, people are gonna think like this
53:19
Speaker 1: is a really smart side ticking the Bears, but I
53:21
Speaker 1: think of the human element. I like the Eagles. There,
53:24
Speaker 1: you know what I'm with you, I've changed my tune.
53:27
Speaker 1: I'm going Carolina Chargers, Eagles, Oakland Baltimore. Now, did Darren
53:34
Speaker 1: send in any of his UM picture? You like that?
53:36
Speaker 1: So busy Gallo vanting around the world, he doesn't even
53:40
Speaker 1: remember that we're doing this podcast. So I get to
53:44
Speaker 1: make what I like to call the executive decisions UM.
53:50
Speaker 1: And then for extra ones, I mean, if we want to,
53:51
Speaker 1: like think about switching out any of these for sharp numbers.
53:56
Speaker 1: I love the Jags in London, and I also love
53:58
Speaker 1: the Bucks, but I know we probably don' wanta do
54:00
Speaker 1: the Bucks again. But six points is way too many
54:03
Speaker 1: points for the Yaws defense to be laying to an
54:06
Speaker 1: explosive offense like that. I know the whole Winston turnover thing,
54:10
Speaker 1: but it's one of those where, like I said, he
54:13
Speaker 1: in the year, it's it's really Russell Wilson on that team,
54:15
Speaker 1: and it's just a bunch of pieces. Like their defense.
54:19
Speaker 1: Letting Atlantic get back into the game just shows what
54:22
Speaker 1: kind of defense they are. I couldn't agree more. I
54:24
Speaker 1: like the box in that spot. I think it's the
54:28
Speaker 1: this is the week where you're allowed to bed jamis.
54:30
Speaker 1: Last week was the week where it was a bad
54:31
Speaker 1: spot where it didn't work out. So though even though
54:34
Speaker 1: we were on him, we were unlucky, we got a
54:38
Speaker 1: better shot this week. Yeah, Simon Hunter, I like I
54:43
Speaker 1: like keeping. We can keep that bucks when we can
54:45
Speaker 1: text tomorrow and see if you want to switch that
54:46
Speaker 1: one in ang, We'll see what happens after the last
54:48
Speaker 1: come out. Yeah, brother, you are keeping us in this
54:52
Speaker 1: thing by will and spirit, and I appreciate that. It's
54:58
Speaker 1: my pleasure. Man. We're gonna keep keep and better here.
55:00
Speaker 1: We got a little three and two weeks so we
55:02
Speaker 1: bounced back, so we gotta keep it rolling here. Let's roll.
55:06
Speaker 1: Let's go make some money, all right, buddy, Simon Hunter.
55:10
Speaker 1: I'll talk to you next week. This has been the
55:12
Speaker 1: favorite from the Action Network the podcast. Download the podcast
55:16
Speaker 1: on Apple Podcasts from radio dot Com search for the
55:21
Speaker 1: favorites wherever you get your podcast. I am Chad Noman.
55:26
Speaker 1: Until next time, I love you.