Latest / Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar / 3/26/26: Trump Threatens Iran, Pentagon preps Ground Troops, US Enlistment Age Increase

Transcript

3/26/26: Trump Threatens Iran, Pentagon preps Ground Troops, US Enlistment Age Increase · Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Hey guys, Saga and Crystal here.
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  Speaker 3: dot com. Good morning, everybody, Happy Thursday.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: We have an amazing everybody today.
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Indeed, we do Trump making new threats against the Iranians
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: as they mock him relentlessly. A lot to dig into there.
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: We've also got a new Barock revied report about what
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: the next steps in the war may be, so we'll
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: dissect that. New polls on just how unpopular the war is,
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: and those numbers are only going down along with Trump's
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: approval rating, which is truly hitting new lows. Oil markets
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: are extremely confusing at this point. The market seemed to
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: be perhaps irrationally expecting that the war is going to
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: end and things are just going to go back to normal.
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: That does not seem to be the case to us
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Layman here, but we'll dig into what we can tell.
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: Professor Robert Pape is going to join us again. Always
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: an honor to get to speak with him and hear
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: his thoughts on where we are and where we are going.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: And we're also going to include in this show an
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: interview that Ryan did when he was down in Cuba
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: with the top official there who offered some, you know,
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: pretty significant accommodations to the United States of America, the
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: kind of deal that you would think that Trump would
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: be eager to take. Unfortunately, doesn't look like he has
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: headed in that direction, but we will will share that
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: with you today. Very significant reporting from Ryan.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: That's right perhaps to Ryan went on the ground already
• 1:44
  Speaker 3: caused a lot of discourse here in the United States
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: debating newsma's hosts.
• 1:48
  Speaker 2: Could you so good as for you know, Ryan, I
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: don't see him give that exercise. That was the most
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: exercise I think I've ever seen Ryan in that Newsmax interview.
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: That was amazing.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: You got to give you got to give the man.
• 2:00
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• 2:59
  Speaker 1: With that, let's go ahead and art with Donald Trump.
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, so he made some new comments last night about
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: these alleged negotiations which he swears is happening and the
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: irradiance swear are not happening. Let's take a listen to that.
• 3:09
  Speaker 4: We settled eight wars, people, so to forget, and we're
• 3:14
  Speaker 4: winning another one. I tell you, we're winning so big.
• 3:16
  Speaker 4: Nobody has ever seen anything like we're doing in the
• 3:19
  Speaker 4: Middle East with Iran, and they are negotiating, by the way,
• 3:22
  Speaker 4: and they want to make a deal so badly, but
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be
• 3:27
  Speaker 4: killed by their own people. They're also afraid they'll be
• 3:31
  Speaker 4: killed by US. There's never been ahead of a country
• 3:36
  Speaker 4: that wanted that job less than being the head of Iran.
• 3:39
  Speaker 2: So, as best we can tell, these negotiations are a fantasy.
• 3:43
  Speaker 2: Not that things have not been sent from the US
• 3:45
  Speaker 2: two around via intermediaries, but in terms of any either
• 3:49
  Speaker 2: direct or indirect negotiations, you know, the reporting from Skayhill
• 3:53
  Speaker 2: and others indicates that is simply not the case in
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: the iraniance have been quite adamant that that is not
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: the case. Let me play another p here from Trump,
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: which I thought was very revealing in a way that he,
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: you know, sort of uniquely can be, where he talks
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: about how well he doesn't want to call it a
• 4:06
  Speaker 2: war because that would mean he needs to get approval
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: from Congress. Let's take a listen.
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: But they're doing it for two reasons. Number one is
• 4:14
  Speaker 4: they want to deflect from all of the tremendous success
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: that we're having in this military operation. I won't use
• 4:21
  Speaker 4: the word war because they say, if you used the
• 4:23
  Speaker 4: word war, that's maybe not a good thing to do.
• 4:26
  Speaker 4: They don't like the word war because you're supposed to
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: get approval, So I'll use the word military operation, which
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: is really what it is. It's called a military decimation.
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: But they don't like the good publicity. They don't like
• 4:39
  Speaker 4: to see us succeed. They want to see our country fail.
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: And I know it seems quaint at this point, but
• 4:45
  Speaker 2: just all but acknowledging Zager how he's flagrantly violating the Constitution.
• 4:49
  Speaker 2: Knows damn well he's supposed to get approval from Congress.
• 4:51
  Speaker 2: Congress on the other hand, you know, equally pathetic. There
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: is a push for War Powers Resolution another vote in
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: the House, and Democratic leaders, because it looks like it
• 5:02
  Speaker 2: may actually succeed, they are trying to push that back
• 5:05
  Speaker 2: a month. I don't know why the war is happening now,
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: like you need to take this vote right now, but
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: you know they low key support ideologically the war. They
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: also think that it is damaging for Trump, so they
• 5:17
  Speaker 2: also low key wanted to continue to go on. It
• 5:19
  Speaker 2: is deeply cynical and disgusting, but that's.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: Where we see exactly. Thank you.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: Let me give a huge shout out to all of
• 5:24
  Speaker 3: the war powers activists who are working on this behind
• 5:26
  Speaker 3: the scenes, to people like Thomas Massey, to Rocana and
• 5:29
  Speaker 3: many of the other heroes in the House who are
• 5:32
  Speaker 3: actually trying to do this. Everybody else is either looking
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: at through a political lens or some you know, cowardly. Really,
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: the Senate Republicans just yesterday moved to make sure that
• 5:42
  Speaker 3: a War Powers Act, a war Power's vote would not
• 5:44
  Speaker 3: come before Congress. And this is so important for our
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: democratic process because it's what shows the ability for the
• 5:52
  Speaker 3: populace to buy and if we're going to talk later
• 5:54
  Speaker 3: about military recruitment and a draft. I mean, look, I
• 5:57
  Speaker 3: don't think any of that is going to happen, but
• 6:00
  Speaker 3: this is the path that we are now on, and
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: you cannot have I mean, look, even in Vietnam we
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: had the sham Gulf of Talkkin resolution. Even during Iraq
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: we had the actual vote, there was a debate, people
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: had to live and die on that. But they do
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: not want to be held accountable for their actions now
• 6:15
  Speaker 3: so far. And it's really important that we all just
• 6:18
  Speaker 3: like put a pin in this for our democratic process,
• 6:21
  Speaker 3: especially as we move to some potential ground invasion. To
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: have boots on the ground in a foreign country with
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: no authorization is the absolute height of cowardice from every
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: single member of the United States Congress.
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that's absolutely right. And if nothing else, like, I
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: don't think any of us really expect that even a
• 6:40
  Speaker 2: vote in favor War Powers resolution end ultimately against the war,
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: that that would constrain this administration. I don't think we're
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: naive enough. It would create some problems for them, as
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: I think it's sort of like an It would create
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: problems acknowledgement of that from Trump here, But just to
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: have everyone on the record is extremely important because it
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: will be hard to hold people accountable after the fact
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: because they'll you know, oh, well I did express my concerns, etc. Etc. No,
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: what did you do at the moment? How did you vote?
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: Where were you on these issues? And so you know,
• 7:11
  Speaker 2: it's just extremely disgusting the way that Congress continues to
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: seed all of their power to the White House. Just
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: go and be a podcast or if you don't want
• 7:18
  Speaker 2: to have like actual power in the political arena. In
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: any case, we've got let's put a too b up
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: on the screen new True Social here from Trump. He says,
• 7:28
  Speaker 2: the Iranian negotiators are very different and strange and scare quotes.
• 7:33
  Speaker 2: For some reason, they are begging us to make a
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: deal again with the scare quotes, which they should be
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: doing since they have been militarily obliterated. Doesn't seem like
• 7:41
  Speaker 2: it anyway, with zero chance of a comeback, also doesn't
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: seem like it. And yet they publicly state that they
• 7:46
  Speaker 2: are only looking at our proposal wrong. They better get
• 7:50
  Speaker 2: serious soon before it is too late, because once that happens,
• 7:54
  Speaker 2: there is no turning back and it won't be pretty.
• 7:57
  Speaker 2: President DJT. You know, the Iranians seemed I mean understandably,
• 8:03
  Speaker 2: like just thinking about this rattling from their perspective. Number one,
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: the terms that the supposed fifteen points that were offered
• 8:10
  Speaker 2: from the Trump administration were completely unserious. You know, the
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: Iranians view, and I think rightfully so, view themselves as
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: winning this war at this point. You know, the US
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: has failed to accomplish any of the stated strategic objectives.
• 8:24
  Speaker 2: The Iranians are, you know, have escalation dominance here. They've
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: been able to match what the US and Israel are doing,
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: not in terms of total damage, but in terms of Okay,
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: you hit our gas field, We're going to hit you back.
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: We're going to make you pay. We're in exact pain
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: in the global economy. Uh. There's a new report we'll
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: get to in a moment here from the Washington Post.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: You know, all of our troops in the region are
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: basically working remotely now because the all of the bases
• 8:51
  Speaker 2: are effectively unusable because of the damage that has been
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: inflicted and you know, and also dangerous. So that is
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: I mean, that is extraordinary. That is different from anything
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: we've seen before. It's you know, we make these comparisons
• 9:04
  Speaker 2: to Vietnam, and obviously the parallels are not exact, but
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: you know this is the ability to project power from
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: the Iranians is unlike any adversary we've faced in a
• 9:14
  Speaker 2: very long time.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: Well, it's just a proof of twenty first century warfare
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: we have. There's every big war, there are signs of
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: where things could have been. So like the script for
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: the First World War, the trench warfare was written in
• 9:28
  Speaker 3: the Siege of Petersburg at the end of the Civil Wars,
• 9:30
  Speaker 3: just the Europeans thought that they were better than us
• 9:32
  Speaker 3: and they would be able to fight differently.
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: They were totally wrong.
• 9:35
  Speaker 3: The script for the Second World War there are multiple
• 9:37
  Speaker 3: skirmishes and other I mean even before the US entrance,
• 9:39
  Speaker 3: you could see how things were working with Poland, with
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: the Iraq War, Vietnam obviously, even with Vietnam. It was
• 9:46
  Speaker 3: not our Vietnam, but France's Vietnam. We just decided to
• 9:49
  Speaker 3: redo that. And for this one, the proof has been
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: there for four years now in Russia and Ukraine is
• 9:54
  Speaker 3: that it doesn't matter. Like you can have all of
• 9:57
  Speaker 3: this fancy stuff, but at the end of the day,
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: these cheap lit drones have the ability to destroy infrastructure,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: to kill troops. Suicide drones and the asymmetry of a
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: global powerhouse like Russia, which has all these awesome tanks
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: and all that, just gets completely mired in the mud
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: and held up by the Ukrainians with not you know,
• 10:16
  Speaker 3: all that expensive military technology. Now I'm not saying they're
• 10:19
  Speaker 3: gonna win, but you can hold off for a long time.
• 10:21
  Speaker 3: It's the asymmetry in the cost. And the perfect example
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: of that is suicide drones taking out billions of dollars
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: worth of natural gas infrastructure, while a multi billion dollar
• 10:31
  Speaker 3: carrier gets taken out by a laundry fire or whatever
• 10:34
  Speaker 3: and has to sail to port and is out of
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: commission now for two years. So you know, at every turn,
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: you see very quickly that anyone paying attention to warfare.
• 10:42
  Speaker 3: And you know, for literally for the last four years,
• 10:45
  Speaker 3: and even before that in Syria we saw that for
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: you know, with the and even you know the Isis war,
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: with the body cams and the drones and all that,
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: like everything was there for the last fifteen years.
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: A seventh as well, October sevenths doesn't have anything like
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: the capabilities of Aron, and you still couldn't defeat them,
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: and they were able to penetrate into Israel and create
• 11:08
  Speaker 2: havoc and you know, kill all kinds of both civilians
• 11:11
  Speaker 2: and IDF and you know, again using just some of
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: this little drone technology to take out the cameras. So
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: you know, you're you're full if you think this is
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: going to be easy. And the Iranians of course, willing
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: to take on much more pain and damage because for
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: them this is ex essential. For us, we don't even
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: want to be there. Let's go and play a little
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: bit of Caroline Levitt here, because clearly the memo went
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: out yesterday. Okay, the Iranians are ruthlessly mocking these you know,
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: the supposed negotiation from Trump. I mean, all these videos
• 11:43
  Speaker 2: that they're putting out, the rhetoric that they're using. I'm
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: really just like trolling and mocking the White House. And
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: so they've rebuffed these fake negotiations. And so now the
• 11:54
  Speaker 2: move has shifted from Trump and from Caroline Levitt and
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: others too. Okay, now we're going to we're going to
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: threaten you. We're going to threaten to punish you for
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: not acceding to our demands. Here, let's go and take
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: a listen to Caroline Levet yesterday at the White House.
• 12:08
  Speaker 5: But the President's preference is always peace. There does not
• 12:12
  Speaker 5: need to be any more death and destruction. But if
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment,
• 12:17
  Speaker 5: if they fail to understand that they have been defeated
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: militarily and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before.
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: President Trump does not bluff, and he is prepared to
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: unleash hell. Iran should not miscalculate.
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: Again, prepared to unleash hell. Sager what you make of
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: the White House tactics here, because the Iranians feel that
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: these negotiations, again the demands are faked, but also they
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: feel it could be like an intelligence gathering op which
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: they're right to figure out where their leadership is so
• 12:49
  Speaker 2: they can murder them, which of course they've done many
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: times in the past. They're probably correct about that. It
• 12:54
  Speaker 2: may also be a stalling tactic. It's also obviously designed
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: to calm the markets, which you know Trump has a
• 13:01
  Speaker 2: problem with, not only with the oil prices, but also
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: with the bond yields, maybe even more of a significant issue.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: So that seems to be the sort of desperate strategy
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: here being employed by the White.
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: House absolutely so what you're seeing is a lot of
• 13:13
  Speaker 3: wish casting. And this is why we talked earlier and
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: Trump actually reminds me a lot of LBJ. I think
• 13:18
  Speaker 3: we're going to talk a lot about this with Professor
• 13:20
  Speaker 3: Pape in that LBJ was the ultimate deal maker, the
• 13:23
  Speaker 3: ultimate consonant Washington politician. His problem always is he would
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: apply that deal making domestic political skill to war with
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: Ho Chi Minh, who fundamentally was an anti colonialist communist,
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: who was like, I will basically never make a deal
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: with you. I have the ultimate and total objective of
• 13:41
  Speaker 3: keeping my country first safe, and second of the reunification
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: Northern South and taking over. There was no deal really
• 13:47
  Speaker 3: to be made. There was only just we have to
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: get out. And that's very difficult for these type of
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: people to accept. You would say over and over again,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: I'm not going to be the first son of a
• 13:55
  Speaker 3: bitch to lose on a war like the first American president.
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And you can watch how well.
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: Trump is trying to do what he did in politics
• 14:03
  Speaker 3: too great, obviously for victory for himself. He's trying to
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: shape the conversation. He's making sure and pushing things. He's like,
• 14:09
  Speaker 3: they want to negotiate so bad, but I'm not gonna
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: let them. That works maybe when you're dealing with Chuck
• 14:14
  Speaker 3: Schumer or Nancy Pelosi. It works when you're dealing with
• 14:16
  Speaker 3: Ted Kruz in the twenty sixteen primary, but doesn't work
• 14:19
  Speaker 3: whenever you're dealing with an enemy who you basically have
• 14:22
  Speaker 3: given no choice. He declared unconditional surrender. You've killed the Ayatola,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: You've made it a war of total survival on their part,
• 14:29
  Speaker 3: and you've actually, you know, so far, have ballooned their
• 14:33
  Speaker 3: ego because the Iranians are right now in the best
• 14:36
  Speaker 3: pole position that they could be. But the biggest mistake
• 14:39
  Speaker 3: that Trump has made is that he has made it
• 14:41
  Speaker 3: so that the ground that could be laid for any
• 14:43
  Speaker 3: negotiation is gone. They can never actually trust our word.
• 14:47
  Speaker 3: They can't trust wit cough. They've been bombed twice. And
• 14:49
  Speaker 3: this is why when that happened, I remember thinking, I go,
• 14:52
  Speaker 3: how are we ever going to be able to make
• 14:54
  Speaker 3: a deal in the future with Russia, with Ukraine, with China,
• 14:57
  Speaker 3: with anyone if you're going to bomb somebody other than
• 14:59
  Speaker 3: the cover of diploma. And so you can see the
• 15:01
  Speaker 3: consequences of his actions, and he's trying to work in
• 15:04
  Speaker 3: a vacuum and not in the context now fully of
• 15:06
  Speaker 3: how he has behaved in his administration. Yeah, that's the
• 15:09
  Speaker 3: prison that he has locked himself into. It locked all
• 15:11
  Speaker 3: of us into. That's the tragedy of it.
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: And part of what's different from Vietnam is you know,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: I mean it destroyed obviously Lbj's presidency. But the end
• 15:18
  Speaker 2: of the day, they could just walk away. You can't
• 15:20
  Speaker 2: just walk away here. I mean, it will destroy Trump.
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: I think Trump's presidency will be destroyed either way at
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: this point. But you know, the Iranians have projected like
• 15:30
  Speaker 2: now we say when this ends, so you may want
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: to leave, but it is Israel going to stop firing.
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is they want to make this the
• 15:41
  Speaker 2: last time that they have to deal with the US
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: and Israel coming in and bombing them. And that is
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: what they are trying to achieve. That's what they feel
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: like they can achieve. But I don't believe that they
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: think that they're there yet. And to your point about
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: the you know, the arrogance and the hubris of doing
• 16:00
  Speaker 2: these you know, negotiation ruses and then murdering the people involved.
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: Let's say the Iranians did want to talk to the US.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: Let's say they wanted to have some sort of a
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: channel of communication just to keep the lines open, See
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: what was possible, et cetera. How would you do that?
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: They certainly aren't going to meet anyone in person and
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: give up their location. They certainly don't want to communicate
• 16:21
  Speaker 2: electronically with them, because the cell phone can be tracked,
• 16:24
  Speaker 2: the communication, we track whatever. Literally, how are you going
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: to communicate? I mean, so the US has basically made
• 16:31
  Speaker 2: it impossible even to have those negotiations if the Iranians
• 16:35
  Speaker 2: want to. Now, what we know right now is, you know,
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: they're passing the US is passing things through Pakistan, They're
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: path through Turkey, you know, through Egypt, and Iran is
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: also in communication with them. But if you were going
• 16:48
  Speaker 2: to have any sort of direct exchange, it's effectively impossible
• 16:51
  Speaker 2: at this point. You've also got let's get ahead to
• 16:54
  Speaker 2: a five. You've also got this, you know, continuing victory narrative,
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: which is increasingly just completely impopus plausible, and American people
• 17:01
  Speaker 2: are not buying it one bit. The vast majority of
• 17:03
  Speaker 2: Americans think the war is going really badly or somewhat
• 17:06
  Speaker 2: badly in any case, This is Caroline Levitt talking about
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: how we're very close to meeting the objectives of Operation
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: Epstein Fury. Let's take a listen to that.
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: We are very close to meeting the core objectives of
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: Operation Epic Fury, and this military mission continues unabated from
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: the outset. President Trump and the Department of War estimated
• 17:27
  Speaker 5: it would take approximately four to six weeks to achieve
• 17:29
  Speaker 5: this critical mission. Twenty five days in the greatest military
• 17:34
  Speaker 5: the world has ever known, is a head of schedule
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: and performing exceptionally.
• 17:38
  Speaker 3: This is very Vietnam esque. This is exactly what they
• 17:41
  Speaker 3: said before the tet offensive. They were like, oh, well
• 17:44
  Speaker 3: we've Operation Rolling Thunder, but you know, people really should
• 17:47
  Speaker 3: go and study Rolling Thunder. Rolling Thunder had the exact
• 17:50
  Speaker 3: same escalation logic. We're going to go in, we're going
• 17:52
  Speaker 3: to bomb, we have men. Every time that they bat,
• 17:55
  Speaker 3: don't back down. We're going to do a little bit more,
• 17:56
  Speaker 3: and then we're going to do a little bit more,
• 17:57
  Speaker 3: and then we're going to do a little bit more.
• 17:59
  Speaker 3: And the entire time they're telling the American public, Hey,
• 18:02
  Speaker 3: what we've done. We've degraded ten thousand hectakers or whatever.
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: We've taken a ninety million Vietcong.
• 18:09
  Speaker 3: I'm exaggerating obviously, but and then what happened, and then
• 18:11
  Speaker 3: what happened is exactly very similar circumstance to what we
• 18:14
  Speaker 3: see right now. Where US troops are working remotely. You
• 18:17
  Speaker 3: have multiple US bases which are declared uninhabitable. You have
• 18:21
  Speaker 3: an aircraft carrier which has to leave the region. We're
• 18:24
  Speaker 3: running dramatically low on interceptors. The military logic of it
• 18:28
  Speaker 3: all starts to be foreseen, and then you have a
• 18:30
  Speaker 3: big event which shows for the final moment you're like,
• 18:32
  Speaker 3: oh my god, everything they told us is a total lie. Remember,
• 18:36
  Speaker 3: the vast majority of people are still not paying attention
• 18:38
  Speaker 3: to this war.
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: They're mostly just going on with their lives.
• 18:40
  Speaker 3: To the extent that they have paid any attention whatsoever,
• 18:43
  Speaker 3: probably gas prices, if I had to guess, that's basically it.
• 18:46
  Speaker 3: You know, they're mostly going about their lives. They know
• 18:48
  Speaker 3: something is kind of happening, but it's not yet. They're
• 18:51
  Speaker 3: they're hearing some of the White House stuff and they're like,
• 18:53
  Speaker 3: has sounds ridiculous, but whatever, just moving on. But the
• 18:57
  Speaker 3: big one when it comes, that's what you want to
• 18:59
  Speaker 3: avoid at all costs because that is those Emperor have
• 19:02
  Speaker 3: no close or even empire has no close moments. You
• 19:04
  Speaker 3: never come back from you absolutely never come back for it.
• 19:08
  Speaker 3: And we're ready, we're inching towards it.
• 19:10
  Speaker 2: We're already in a place where things will never be
• 19:12
  Speaker 2: quite the same. That's right, We're all right. However this ends,
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: things will not be the same on the other side
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: of it. Let's go and put Iran's five conditions that
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: they've been pretty consistently holding out here about what they
• 19:23
  Speaker 2: would need in order to end the war, so they say.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Tehran is therefore characterized the latest overture, which was delivered
• 19:30
  Speaker 2: by a friendly regional intermediary as a ploy to heighten
• 19:33
  Speaker 2: tentions and as responded negatively, The official outline five specific
• 19:36
  Speaker 2: conditions under which Iron would agree to end the war.
• 19:39
  Speaker 2: They include number one, a complete halt to aggression and
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: assassinations by the enemy. Number two, the establishment of concrete
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: mechanisms to ensure the war is not reimposed on the
• 19:50
  Speaker 2: Islamic Republic. Number three guaranteed and clearly defined payment of
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: war damages and reparations. Number four the conclusion of the
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: war across all fronts and for all resistance groups involved
• 20:00
  Speaker 2: throughout the region, and just to pause on that when
• 20:02
  Speaker 2: there's reporting that they want to make sure Lebanon is
• 20:06
  Speaker 2: included in any sort of you know, war ending deal
• 20:10
  Speaker 2: here and Hesbalah is included in that. So they want
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: to make sure not only is the war ended here,
• 20:15
  Speaker 2: but also on the additional front that Israel's opened up
• 20:18
  Speaker 2: there international recognition and guarantees regarding Iran's sovereign right to
• 20:22
  Speaker 2: exercise authority over the Strait of Hormuz. The official further
• 20:25
  Speaker 2: note of these stipulations are an addition to demands previously
• 20:28
  Speaker 2: presented by Tehran during the second round of negotiations in Geneva,
• 20:32
  Speaker 2: which took place just to days before the US and
• 20:34
  Speaker 2: Israel carried out a fresh round of aggression on February
• 20:37
  Speaker 2: twenty eighth. So they say they want everything to stop,
• 20:40
  Speaker 2: they want to make sure it can't restart in the future,
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: and they want reparations because they feel correctly they were attacked,
• 20:47
  Speaker 2: that it was they were illegally attacked. All kinds of
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: damage has been done to their country and they think
• 20:51
  Speaker 2: that the US and Israel should pay them that for
• 20:54
  Speaker 2: what they have done to them. Now I ask you,
• 20:57
  Speaker 2: you know, in the Iranians minds. They feel they're winning.
• 21:00
  Speaker 2: You know, they feel they blocked the US from being
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: able to achieve any of their strategic objectives. They feel
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: they are you know, they're in control of the strait
• 21:07
  Speaker 2: of her moves. They get to say how big and
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: how quickly this war, you know, how much this expands,
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: how much pain the region and the US and the
• 21:15
  Speaker 2: globe ultimately are going to you know, going to feel.
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: And so they think it's entirely reasonable that they get
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: paid back reparations. Do you think that Trump and Israel
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: do you think they're anywhere near feeling like this is
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: you know, this is something we're going to accept. No Trump,
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: Trump has to save face here. He has to save
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: face because if he, let's say, he accepted these conditions
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: and walked away, it is the end of his present.
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: I mean it is humiliating. Like already we're in a
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: situation where you know, they've Washington Post is saying they've
• 21:49
  Speaker 2: given up on regime change, they've given up on ending
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: the nuclear program. Now the war is to reopen the
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: straight of horror moves, which the war closed. So I
• 21:57
  Speaker 2: saw our no bertrand He's like, it's the war to
• 21:59
  Speaker 2: re opened the thing the war closed. Yes, that's how
• 22:02
  Speaker 2: much of a disaster this has already been to the US.
• 22:05
  Speaker 3: Our logic, though, this is how it always works, and
• 22:07
  Speaker 3: this is why the traders and the markets they're all like, oh, well,
• 22:11
  Speaker 3: Trump wants to end the war. You think that the
• 22:13
  Speaker 3: Kaiser didn't want to end the war in nineteen fourteen,
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Like you think LBJ didn't want to end the war
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: in nineteen sixty six. You think that, you know, the
• 22:20
  Speaker 3: Abraham Lincoln didn't want the war to end in eighteen
• 22:22
  Speaker 3: sixty one.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody wants to end the war. Yeah, it doesn't think
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: it'll end.
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: Speaking to this, this is what you're referring to as
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: Wall Street journal piece that's like, oh, let's put it
• 22:31
  Speaker 2: up there on this Trump wants to speedy end. He's
• 22:33
  Speaker 2: looking for an off ran. It's like, okay, good luck,
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: good luck, because this is what we've always warned about.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: Once you're in, it's not so easy just to walk away.
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: It's you don't get to just on board with it.
• 22:44
  Speaker 2: I mean they talk in this article about how he's
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: basically like boored with the war and wants to get
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: back to like I don't know, talking about his ballroom
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: or sicking ice agents on America. Whatever. I'm kind of
• 22:54
  Speaker 2: over this, and it's kind of a prom for the
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: mid terms. Okay, you may feel that way. How are
• 22:58
  Speaker 2: you going to get out of this? Because it doesn't
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: seem obvious to me at all, or a lot of
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: experts that I've been listening to, how you could even
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: end this thing at this point.
• 23:06
  Speaker 3: Yes, and that is why, that's actually why I just
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: feel really despondent, because it would take the most supreme
• 23:15
  Speaker 3: act of courage from now two separate individuals, not just one.
• 23:19
  Speaker 3: First is the Ayatola or whoever is running an Iran.
• 23:23
  Speaker 3: He would have to have the recognition this is probably
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: the best we're going to get. Let's drive it home
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: and let's actually do something with the Americans and have
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: a last and a final piece. However, and if I'm
• 23:35
  Speaker 3: being honest, if I was one of his advisers, I
• 23:37
  Speaker 3: would tell him not to do it, because if I'm
• 23:39
  Speaker 3: looking purely from the lens of an Iranian who is
• 23:43
  Speaker 3: now fighting, we cannot trust these people. What actual confidence
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: can we have that they're going to restrain the Israelis?
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: And then second on Donald Trump, it would actually take
• 23:51
  Speaker 3: genuinely the act of supreme courage to restrain now all
• 23:56
  Speaker 3: of the Israeli action for forever, for now and forever,
• 24:00
  Speaker 3: to make sure that we're not going to let that happen,
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: and that we're actually going to take this massive political hit,
• 24:05
  Speaker 3: which we know that we are where it's better in
• 24:07
  Speaker 3: the long run to just say enough, we're not doing
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: this anymore. We're going to sign a deal. But all
• 24:13
  Speaker 3: of the bellicosity moving the troops. The easy decision from
• 24:17
  Speaker 3: Donald Trump's perspective right now is to do what every
• 24:20
  Speaker 3: wartime leader has always done. Escalate, to de escalate. We'll
• 24:23
  Speaker 3: break the back of the enemy, and then what we'll
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: do is make a deal on the other side.
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: For the Iranians, it's very similar.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: They're like, well, we haven't even hit oil at two
• 24:30
  Speaker 3: hundred yet, we haven't made them feel the pain. We
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: need to feel the pain. Ultimately, this is a power mismatch.
• 24:36
  Speaker 3: And what it means though is that this, you know,
• 24:38
  Speaker 3: the actual power of the US Empire is going to
• 24:41
  Speaker 3: have to fully get involved ground troops. And even then,
• 24:44
  Speaker 3: remember we're only talking about a couple thousand ground troops
• 24:47
  Speaker 3: right now. This could be you know, tens of thousands,
• 24:50
  Speaker 3: hundreds of thousand.
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: That's how it works.
• 24:51
  Speaker 3: It starts with a few oh and then you know,
• 24:53
  Speaker 3: twenty guys get killed. What we have to avenge their death,
• 24:55
  Speaker 3: and now we're on. And this is why you don't
• 24:57
  Speaker 3: want to get into this situation in the first place.
• 25:00
  Speaker 3: And anybody who had a hand in this can never
• 25:02
  Speaker 3: be forgiven because what they've unleashed already do not only
• 25:05
  Speaker 3: the damage to our credibility diplomatically, our standing in the world.
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, I remember how.
• 25:11
  Speaker 3: Many of these neocons used to talk about America's humiliation
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: after Afghanistan and how that encouraged the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
• 25:19
  Speaker 3: Let's say that that's true, which I don't even think
• 25:21
  Speaker 3: it's fully true, but let's say it's partially it had.
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: Some impact on it.
• 25:24
  Speaker 3: What do you think if you're China and Russia, any
• 25:26
  Speaker 3: of these countries looking at how the United States just
• 25:28
  Speaker 3: held up in a very limited ballistic missile exchange with Iran,
• 25:32
  Speaker 3: and think and then our own, you know, political capacity
• 25:35
  Speaker 3: to stand for a war of choice like this. What
• 25:38
  Speaker 3: are you going to take away from that? You're like, Wow,
• 25:40
  Speaker 3: this is much easier than we ever thought it would be.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: This is why this is really really bad, and we
• 25:47
  Speaker 3: also see the escalation that continues.
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: Let's put a ten up here on the screen. Iran.
• 25:52
  Speaker 3: Just yesterday they struck a chemical complex in the Negev
• 25:56
  Speaker 3: Desert which is linked to white phosphorus production.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: So sick missile program is there.
• 26:01
  Speaker 3: They're hitting targets in israel chemical complexes, is causing a
• 26:05
  Speaker 3: huge blast.
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: What does that mean? Why does that matter?
• 26:07
  Speaker 3: Because the interceptors are running low, they're able to take
• 26:11
  Speaker 3: out more critical infrastructure. And when you can take out
• 26:13
  Speaker 3: critical infrastructure, you can take out interceptors, you actually become
• 26:17
  Speaker 3: the great boogieman threat that the Israelis always said you were.
• 26:20
  Speaker 3: Now they really could be an existential threat to Israel.
• 26:23
  Speaker 3: So what does Israel do. They might have to use
• 26:25
  Speaker 3: a nuclear weapon. They don't have any forces. That's why,
• 26:27
  Speaker 3: like you know, everybody thinks you sound hysterical, but things
• 26:30
  Speaker 3: move very very quickly in war, and you can already
• 26:34
  Speaker 3: see the strategic logic from the Israeli perspective. That's why
• 26:37
  Speaker 3: they're opening, that's why they're expanding their borders, That's why
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: they want and are pushing the United States because now
• 26:42
  Speaker 3: this really is the boogeyman for the United states. We
• 26:45
  Speaker 3: have to save face, we need to save the global
• 26:47
  Speaker 3: oil market. We can't just sign a deal and then
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: from the Iranians, same thing, like they haven't exacted the
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: pain that they want because they want this to be
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: the last war, not just one war. And you know,
• 26:58
  Speaker 3: all this, all this language WI every history book you'll read,
• 27:02
  Speaker 3: you hear them all say the same thing.
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: This needs to be the war to end all wars.
• 27:07
  Speaker 3: This needs to be you know, if we find if
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: we just do this, then the enemy will capitulate. It
• 27:12
  Speaker 3: turns out, especially when you put people in a total
• 27:15
  Speaker 3: war situation, which is what Trump's threat is, it's only
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: going to drag on even longer and longer and longer.
• 27:20
  Speaker 3: And I'm just I do not see a way out
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: of this. None of these people have the courage to
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: do this needs to be done.
• 27:26
  Speaker 2: Israeli logic, which apparently the Trump administration Trump is bought
• 27:30
  Speaker 2: into completely. Is there just one bombing campaign away from
• 27:33
  Speaker 2: like perfect piece of super always one more bombing campaign,
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: one more round of assassination.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: More square miles, more of territory, yeah outside.
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: Yeah exactly. And I mean they're already projecting they're going
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: to go to war with Turkey next after this, and
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: they've already picked their next target, like this is the
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: this is the logic that they operate under. And of
• 27:49
  Speaker 2: course there is no like, there is no final answer here.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: At the end of the day, You're going to have
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: to figure out some negotiated settlement, figure out how to
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: live with people so you're not constantly at war with them.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: But that is the polar opposite of the Israeli approach
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: and certainly the net Yahoo approach. To your point about
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: the amount of damage that Iran continues to be able
• 28:10
  Speaker 2: to inflict, and I want you all to really take
• 28:12
  Speaker 2: in how much you were gas lit by this administration
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: and by the Western media about how, oh they've taken
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: on all of Iran's missile launchers and they're not going
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: to be able to do anything anymore. And oh, look
• 28:21
  Speaker 2: at how their missile launchers are going down, et cetera,
• 28:23
  Speaker 2: et cetera. Yeah, the number of missiles they're launching has
• 28:26
  Speaker 2: gone down, but those missiles are finding their targets far
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: more often because Iran, unlike us, they didn't underestimate us.
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: They took us seriously. We thought that, you know, we
• 28:35
  Speaker 2: Trump came into this like, oh, they're going to close
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: down the straight armers. I can't believe that they've been
• 28:39
  Speaker 2: planning for this for decades. They've expected this conflict and
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: planned for it so smartly. What did they do first?
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: They tried to blind us, you know, take out the
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: radar capabilities, exhaust the interceptors, and now they're at the
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: point where their missiles are finding their targets more frequently.
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: So put a eleven up on the screen. This is
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: the other way that you've been gas lit and lied to.
• 28:59
  Speaker 2: And a lot of the image in the region has
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: been actively covered up by this administration, with the collaboration
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: of these private satellite companies. By the way, but in
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: any case, this is Aaron Basani of Navara Media. By
• 29:10
  Speaker 2: the way, they do great work. You guys should check
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: them out. Many of the thirteen military bases in the
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: region used by American troops are all but uninhabitable. He says,
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: a pretty extraordinary mission in the New York Times. You
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: know it's bad when they are being that candid. A
• 29:22
  Speaker 2: ground invasion certainly makes a lot more sense after reading that.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: And let me just read you a little bit of
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: this piece from the New York Times that he's quoting here,
• 29:29
  Speaker 2: he says Iran has bombed US bases across the Middle
• 29:32
  Speaker 2: East in retaliation for the US Israeli war, forcing many
• 29:35
  Speaker 2: American troops to relocate to hotels and office spaces throughout
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: the region. According to military personnel and American officials, Now
• 29:43
  Speaker 2: we've been told many times, this is them using civilians
• 29:47
  Speaker 2: as human shields, right, isn't that what's going on here?
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: Isn't that you know, the definite Oh you're you're in
• 29:52
  Speaker 2: these civilian population, these civilian hotels. Aren't you putting civilians
• 29:56
  Speaker 2: at risk? Isn't it? Now? Not Iran's fault if civilians
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: get killed when they're targeting US military personnel. That's what
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: we were told by the Israelis for years and years,
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: it says. So now much of the land based military
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: is in essence working remotely, with the exception of fighter
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: pilots and crews operating and maintaining warplanes and conducting strikes.
• 30:16
  Speaker 2: They go on to talk about, you know, some of
• 30:17
  Speaker 2: the specific damage to the various bases in the region,
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: but you know, Saga, the fact that meant most of
• 30:25
  Speaker 2: the thirteen military bases have been damaged to the extent
• 30:28
  Speaker 2: that they are effectively uninhabitable, and that our personnel feels
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: so endangered there that now they're in civilian hotels and office.
• 30:34
  Speaker 2: I mean, this is extraordinary, I mean shocking. I would
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: not have thought, Yeah, I wouldn't. I genuinely would not
• 30:41
  Speaker 2: have thought. At the beginning of this one, I thought
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: iron could do damage. I thought they could definitely strangle
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: the global economy. I didn't think that they could just
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: you know, Willy Milly hit our military bases and force
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: our troops to have to relocate to hotels and office.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: But I knew it intellectually. I didn't know it for real.
• 30:55
  Speaker 3: And that's really what I meant is, you know, having
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: watched I mean, anybody can download Telegram and you can
• 30:59
  Speaker 3: watch which men die every single day on the Russian Front.
• 31:02
  Speaker 3: You actually can, And that's part of the tragedy is
• 31:04
  Speaker 3: that you can see the exact same playbook as I
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: don't know if anybody's seen the videos, the first person
• 31:09
  Speaker 3: of view videos of them taking out like an army
• 31:12
  Speaker 3: ambulance helicopter, ten million dollar helicopter.
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: Twenty thousand dollars DRN. I mean, it's just story.
• 31:17
  Speaker 3: You could see this every time that we are in
• 31:21
  Speaker 3: one of these types of conflicts, but we didn't prepare properly.
• 31:23
  Speaker 3: At the end of the day, we had a ton
• 31:25
  Speaker 3: of confidence in our interceptors. Imperial hubris a tale as
• 31:29
  Speaker 3: old as time, right, that's the tragedy of it. And
• 31:32
  Speaker 3: now you have tens of thousands of troops working remotely.
• 31:35
  Speaker 3: God help us if some hacker or something takes out
• 31:38
  Speaker 3: Internet access. Now what, I hope it works outright. I
• 31:41
  Speaker 3: hope starlink keeps working up. There doesn't take much. Actually,
• 31:45
  Speaker 3: just think about the actual problem with that. And then
• 31:48
  Speaker 3: also you have all this dispersal, which causes kinds of chaos.
• 31:52
  Speaker 3: You have also the humiliation of having to evacuate a
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: large base. By the way, as I just said earlier,
• 31:58
  Speaker 3: this shows you how having these large concentrated basis, aircraft carriers, etc.
• 32:04
  Speaker 3: Probably not the way that you want to be prepared. Oops,
• 32:06
  Speaker 3: that's the way our entire empire is structured right now.
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: Very you know, very what is it very vulnerable.
• 32:14
  Speaker 3: To attacks and to tactics like this, which every military
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: in the world who's an adversary of the United States
• 32:20
  Speaker 3: will now be studying for all time. So you can
• 32:23
  Speaker 3: just see how the script for the next big one
• 32:26
  Speaker 3: you can study this very easily, the vulnerabilities. Do we
• 32:30
  Speaker 3: really trust our military industrial complex and our leaders to
• 32:33
  Speaker 3: make any changes. They're going to keep buying these multimillion
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: dollar weapons systems. They're going to keep investing in these things.
• 32:39
  Speaker 3: Even with the interceptors. They're going to spend fifteen million
• 32:41
  Speaker 3: to shoot down a ten thousand dollars drone, will probably
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: even more, And that logic will make it so that
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: when it truly becomes existential, that we could be left
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: genuinely defenseless or it could invite real aggression in the future.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: Is why we never ever should have done this. So
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: I don't see a way out. I just don't.
• 33:00
  Speaker 2: The last thing I want to do in this block
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: if we could put a seven up on the screen,
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: just to get a taste of how the Iranians are
• 33:05
  Speaker 2: talking about this. This is their military spokesperson. He says,
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: have your internal conflicts reach the point where you're negotiating
• 33:13
  Speaker 2: with yourselves, don't call your defeat an agreement. You will
• 33:17
  Speaker 2: see neither your investments in the region, nor previous energy
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: and oil prices return until it is our will. Nothing
• 33:23
  Speaker 2: will return to how it was. That will only happen
• 33:26
  Speaker 2: when the idea of acting against the Iranian people is
• 33:28
  Speaker 2: completely a RaSE from your minds Our position from day
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: one has been clear and remains unchanged. Someone like us
• 33:35
  Speaker 2: will never come to terms with someone like you, not
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: now and not ever. So that is the message the
• 33:42
  Speaker 2: Iranians are putting out in response to Charal Trump's talks
• 33:46
  Speaker 2: of Ohther's. So they're desperate to negotiator, They're begging for
• 33:48
  Speaker 2: an end to this, etcetera, et cetera. This is the
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: message they're putting out to the world and to their people, right.
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly, And you know, you can see exactly the
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: logic around this about the message of the Iranian regime
• 34:02
  Speaker 3: internally and then here in the US, this desperate want
• 34:06
  Speaker 3: for negotiation. By the way, this is part of the
• 34:08
  Speaker 3: problem with Trump's timelines because at a certain point he
• 34:11
  Speaker 3: only ever has taco or fulfillment, and both are bad, right,
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: because if he continues to taco while I am pro
• 34:18
  Speaker 3: ultimate taco in the interim, He's just going to keep
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: leaving things open ended. So let's say, if you look
• 34:24
  Speaker 3: at what's the only real peace piece deal Trump has
• 34:27
  Speaker 3: signed was Gaza, Right, Well, was it really a peace deal?
• 34:30
  Speaker 3: We have this weird Board of Peace. People continue to
• 34:33
  Speaker 3: die in Gaza every single day. There's no lasting settlement
• 34:37
  Speaker 3: for what post you know, governance is going to look like.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: Hamas remains largely in power over the population. The Israelis
• 34:45
  Speaker 3: have total security control, like of the ability to impose
• 34:48
  Speaker 3: a blockade and everything. On top of that, nobody has
• 34:51
  Speaker 3: any future that that will work out. And by the way,
• 34:53
  Speaker 3: for the Iranians, they see that very clearly. They're like,
• 34:56
  Speaker 3: we can't enter in open ended some sort of fake
• 34:59
  Speaker 3: scene fire where Israel just gets to continue to attack
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: us every day. The only option is to continue to
• 35:05
  Speaker 3: bomb the shit out of them and continue.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: To bomb us.
• 35:07
  Speaker 3: So the existing framework and infrastructure is not a real
• 35:13
  Speaker 3: pathway to real peace with this conflict. So you can
• 35:16
  Speaker 3: actually see how Trump's preference for deal making is to
• 35:20
  Speaker 3: keep everything open ended, where you're dealing with an adversary
• 35:23
  Speaker 3: which can still punch back, not like Hamas could, which
• 35:26
  Speaker 3: could only internally but could actually inflict some sort of
• 35:28
  Speaker 3: damage and remains largely politically intact. Well, they're never going
• 35:32
  Speaker 3: to accede to that. The only way to get them
• 35:34
  Speaker 3: to do that would be to invade and to occupy them.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: And yeah, we can we could do that, it would
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: be a nightmare, right and for politically, for the people
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: of Iran and also our own service members.
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: I mean we at our peak, I think we had
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: like one hundred and seventy thousand service members on the
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: ground in a rock. And Iran is four times the
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: size of a rock and has notoriously extraordinarily difficult geography
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: to control, by the way, because it's so mountainous. So
• 36:04
  Speaker 2: I don't know. I mean, yeah, we could, but even
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: if we like went all in, it still would be
• 36:10
  Speaker 2: a very difficult military Jeah, this is not you know,
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: this isn't a gimme. Even if we did do a
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: full on hundreds of thousands of troops on the ground
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: type invasion, I don't know. What a mess, That's all
• 36:23
  Speaker 2: you can say. What a mess?
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean I think in Vietnam, I'm looking it up.
• 36:27
  Speaker 3: I want to say it was several hundred thousand at
• 36:30
  Speaker 3: its absolute Yeah, five hundred and forty three thousand troops
• 36:32
  Speaker 3: in country in Vietnam. And that's South Vietnam, which is
• 36:36
  Speaker 3: half of Vietnam, which is not a very big country.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: Now compare that to Iran, right, So I mean when
• 36:42
  Speaker 3: I say we could do it like we could do
• 36:44
  Speaker 3: it politically, like we could take over Tehran and a
• 36:46
  Speaker 3: few of the population centers.
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: Can you truly occupy the old country?
• 36:49
  Speaker 2: No?
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: I mean even that it's and why would you even
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: want to write?
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: Yeah, exactly so you could see I hate to be
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: so catastrophic.
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: I've just been mulling it. You know.
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: I see the Iranian response. I see the way that
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: Trump is talking. He doesn't have a way out. You
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: see the Israelis who are assassinating everybody that they possibly can.
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: Just yesterday came out and they go, we have taken
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: the Foreign minister off the kill list. And you're like, oh, okay,
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: I mean so you were trying to kill him before that.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: You're like, thank you, I guess. But they want they want.
• 37:20
  Speaker 2: It's what they did with who could even believe them also, and.
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: They want they just want to kill everybody who could
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: possibly negotiate. That's literally what they did with Hamas to
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: make it so that the only viable option was total destruction,
• 37:32
  Speaker 3: which even then they weren't able to achieve. So with
• 37:34
  Speaker 3: all that big preamble, let's get to the ground troop stuff.
• 37:40
  Speaker 3: Turning now to the ground troop section, let's go ahead
• 37:42
  Speaker 3: and put this up here on the screen. Some breaking
• 37:44
  Speaker 3: news here from Barak Ravid, who is of course a
• 37:47
  Speaker 3: White House scribe. Could it all be posturing, certainly could,
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: but we should take it seriously.
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: He says.
• 37:53
  Speaker 3: The Pentagon is preparing for a massive quote final blow of.
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: The Iran war.
• 37:57
  Speaker 3: A fine I have never heard that word before in history,
• 38:01
  Speaker 3: have I. Usually it accompanies a massive invasion that doesn't
• 38:05
  Speaker 3: work out. It has to lead to another final blow,
• 38:07
  Speaker 3: and just this time it will break the enemy. The
• 38:11
  Speaker 3: Pentagon is developing military options for the final blow. A
• 38:14
  Speaker 3: dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress
• 38:17
  Speaker 3: is made. They think a crushing show of force to
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks,
• 38:23
  Speaker 3: or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory. Iran,
• 38:27
  Speaker 3: of course, has a say in how the war ends.
• 38:29
  Speaker 3: Many of the scenarios would risk prolonging and intensifying the conflict.
• 38:33
  Speaker 3: It would include potentially invading or blockading carg Island, invading Larak,
• 38:38
  Speaker 3: an island that helps Iran solidify its control of the
• 38:41
  Speaker 3: Straits of Hormuz, seizing the strategic island of Abu Musa,
• 38:44
  Speaker 3: and two smaller islands which lie near the western entrance
• 38:47
  Speaker 3: to the Strait and are controlled by Iran but also
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: claimed by the UAE and blocking or seizing ships that
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: are exporting Iranian oil on the eastern side of the
• 38:55
  Speaker 3: Hormuz Straight. The military has also prepared plans for ground
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: operations deep inside the interior of Iran to secure the
• 39:02
  Speaker 3: highly enriched uranium buried within nuclear facilities. Instead of conducting
• 39:06
  Speaker 3: such a complicated and risky operation, they could also carry
• 39:10
  Speaker 3: out large scale air strikes on those facilities to try
• 39:13
  Speaker 3: to prevent Iran from ever accessing that material. Now you
• 39:17
  Speaker 3: put this together with all of the troops that are
• 39:19
  Speaker 3: currently on their way to the region, and you could
• 39:22
  Speaker 3: be reasonably confident that something like this could happen absent
• 39:26
  Speaker 3: a huge diplomatic breakthrough in the next four hours. Starting
• 39:29
  Speaker 3: tomorrow is when the is when the five day deadline
• 39:33
  Speaker 3: Slash extensions Slash expires. Slash Market is closed right exactly
• 39:37
  Speaker 3: tomorrow at four thirty pm. Everybody opened their eyes. I joked,
• 39:41
  Speaker 3: it brings a whole new meaning to weekend warriors. You
• 39:44
  Speaker 3: can only fight, you know, we literally are weekend warriors.
• 39:47
  Speaker 3: We can only fight when the market is closed. What
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: imagine trying to time D Day with when the S
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: and P was going to open in New York City.
• 39:55
  Speaker 2: Book, that's the way to which stage?
• 39:58
  Speaker 1: God, I don't even know. Let's go to the the
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: next one. Let's put this up here on the screen.
• 40:02
  Speaker 3: Big indication that something is happening is that at least
• 40:05
  Speaker 3: three Congressional Republicans, including the chair of the House and
• 40:09
  Speaker 3: the Senate Armed Services Committees, are quote hinting strongly that
• 40:13
  Speaker 3: a ground operation in Iran is planned and could potentially
• 40:16
  Speaker 3: be underway soon. All of them have voiced frustration with
• 40:21
  Speaker 3: the lack of information that has been shared from the Pentagon.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: One of them, also, Nancy Mace. Senate Armed Services Committee,
• 40:26
  Speaker 3: of course, is the committee responsible for appropriating funds for
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: the Pentagon. They are doing many of the leaks that
• 40:32
  Speaker 3: we've gotten, for example about the billions in damage, how
• 40:35
  Speaker 3: much munitions, et cetera. Has been fired, that comes from
• 40:40
  Speaker 3: legal updates that the Pentagon must make to the Senate
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: Armed Services Committee. And especially why remember that they're going
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: to request some two hundred billion in the future. This
• 40:49
  Speaker 3: is the way that it's all going to play out. Now,
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: why do we need to do a ground invasion. Why
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: does something need to change. It's very simple, flagged on
• 40:57
  Speaker 3: the show from day one. Interceptors doesn't math. Let's put
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: this up here on the screen. So this is from
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: the Royal United Services Institute. It is one of the
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: oldest I believe it might be the oldest defense think
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: tank in the world. It's a UK based think tank
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: and very similar, let's say here to the United States
• 41:16
  Speaker 3: the CSIS what is its Center for Strategic Institute Studies
• 41:20
  Speaker 3: something like that. But these are very respected defense think tanks,
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: usually very tied into the military industrial complex and almost
• 41:30
  Speaker 3: always actually have a pro war bias.
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: However, they're very good at what they do.
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: They do a lot of analysis around interceptors, math, They
• 41:37
  Speaker 3: read budget proposals, they look at open source and they
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: compile all the data together. So I want to be
• 41:42
  Speaker 3: clear here they don't have the exact data, but they
• 41:44
  Speaker 3: have a very good track record. Now here is what
• 41:47
  Speaker 3: they warn Let's put my tweet please up here on
• 41:50
  Speaker 3: the screen. So the Royal Services, the Royal United Service
• 41:54
  Speaker 3: Institute now estimates Israel is days away from running out
• 41:58
  Speaker 3: of aerow interceptors and that the United States has already
• 42:02
  Speaker 3: burned about forty percent of the available FAD stockpile in
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: the Iran war and only has.
• 42:08
  Speaker 1: About three weeks left.
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: So let me linger here a little bit on all
• 42:13
  Speaker 3: of the types of munitions, the Arrow two and Arow
• 42:16
  Speaker 3: three munitions. These are the interceptors that come up hit
• 42:19
  Speaker 3: the Iranian missiles.
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: By the way, they haven't even been working that well.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: Do you notice crystal of the date on the projected
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: depletion date March twenty seventh, twenty twenty six. The current
• 42:29
  Speaker 3: date is March twenty six. Now they could be wrong.
• 42:32
  Speaker 3: They could be wrong. This was based on the projections
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: of the first sixteen days of the conflict. And you
• 42:37
  Speaker 3: know one reason they might be wrong is they had
• 42:39
  Speaker 3: to stop firing them, so they might extend the runway
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: a little bit.
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: But that's not good.
• 42:44
  Speaker 3: The second Allied FAD interceptors partner operated UAE, etcet Jordan, Right,
• 42:50
  Speaker 3: et cetera. Other countries which have access projected run date
• 42:53
  Speaker 3: is April third, twenty twenty six. Israel they have the
• 42:56
  Speaker 3: Blue Sparrow air launched ballistic missile. Projected runout date April fifth,
• 43:01
  Speaker 3: twenty twenty six. David Sling Defensive April sixth, twenty twenty six.
• 43:06
  Speaker 3: Israel rampage supersonic missile April ninth, twenty twenty six, US
• 43:11
  Speaker 3: okay April twelfth, April twenty twenty six, THAD Israel operated
• 43:15
  Speaker 3: April eleventh, and then THAD US operated April seventeen, twenty
• 43:19
  Speaker 3: twenty six, only a couple of weeks. And then if
• 43:22
  Speaker 3: you actually look at the percent of the total stockpile,
• 43:25
  Speaker 3: ARO three in the first sixteen days was already eighty
• 43:28
  Speaker 3: percent depletion, US was at forty and so just imagine
• 43:34
  Speaker 3: at forty and we'd already burned twenty five percent of
• 43:37
  Speaker 3: the existing stockpile in the twelve day.
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: War and we're already at forty in the first sixteen days.
• 43:41
  Speaker 3: So the mac is almost almost certainly correct if you
• 43:45
  Speaker 3: just look at how things worked in the twelve day
• 43:46
  Speaker 3: war to today. This means that the current way that
• 43:50
  Speaker 3: things are going is is impossible. We cannot keep this
• 43:53
  Speaker 3: happening because all critical infrastructure, US bases, everything is now free.
• 44:00
  Speaker 3: It's going to be free game if things just continue
• 44:02
  Speaker 3: to operate as they do. Because we have been unable
• 44:04
  Speaker 3: to take out all the drones or all the ballistic
• 44:06
  Speaker 3: missile programs as we warned, you could take out ninety
• 44:09
  Speaker 3: five percent. But even that five percent, if the interceptors
• 44:11
  Speaker 3: are low, they can do a shit ton of damage.
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: So here we are.
• 44:14
  Speaker 3: Now we have to do something to change the strategic
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: calculus because the status quo is not going to work.
• 44:19
  Speaker 3: So you could either have diplomacy or you would have
• 44:21
  Speaker 3: to have an invasion to go in and to secure
• 44:24
  Speaker 3: and to change the status quo.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: And that is the problem. Also, don't just take my
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: word for it. Put B four up there on the screen.
• 44:31
  Speaker 3: Another piece of analysis this is from the Jerusalem Posts,
• 44:34
  Speaker 3: who obviously would know Operation Epic Fury has drained one
• 44:39
  Speaker 3: third of the bad supply, so their estimates even higher
• 44:42
  Speaker 3: are a little bit lower, and replenishment could take eight years.
• 44:45
  Speaker 3: While the ninety percent hit rate is elite, every launch
• 44:48
  Speaker 3: against Iran depletes the readiness needed for potential conflict with China.
• 44:52
  Speaker 3: And remember we already stripped a decent amount out of
• 44:56
  Speaker 3: South Korea of a lot of these interceptors and they
• 44:58
  Speaker 3: take years to rebuild. Literally only what you know for
• 45:02
  Speaker 3: some patriot, I think it's just like one facility, et cetera.
• 45:06
  Speaker 3: The biggest problem now is okay, so ground troops to
• 45:10
  Speaker 3: do what well, as they said, for this final blow
• 45:14
  Speaker 3: to take control of the Straits of Hormuz. I think
• 45:18
  Speaker 3: that the nuclear facility option is the one that makes
• 45:22
  Speaker 3: the most sense, and it's because for every one of
• 45:25
  Speaker 3: these wartime leaders to change things, they need to do
• 45:28
  Speaker 3: something big and especially trump spectacular, and you can declare victory.
• 45:33
  Speaker 3: So taking control of the strait is basically a continuation
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: of the war.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Now.
• 45:38
  Speaker 3: I could see it as in, I'll take control of
• 45:40
  Speaker 3: the straight away from Iran, which means that they'll have
• 45:43
  Speaker 3: to break because they'll have no more money and that's
• 45:45
  Speaker 3: their only real point of leverage. But that isn't something
• 45:47
  Speaker 3: that's actually going to wind up the war. The only
• 45:50
  Speaker 3: way that I see that he could truly try to
• 45:52
  Speaker 3: declare victory and say this is all over is to
• 45:54
  Speaker 3: go in and actually take out their entire nuclear for
• 45:57
  Speaker 3: their entire nuclear stockpile, of the material that could be enriched,
• 46:02
  Speaker 3: and some of their facilities. But that is fraught with
• 46:04
  Speaker 3: risk in the middle of mountains, they're going to turn
• 46:07
  Speaker 3: it into a death trap.
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: A lot of it is buried.
• 46:09
  Speaker 3: Under rubble because we did that, and so it's not
• 46:11
  Speaker 3: even that easy to go and get there's no good
• 46:13
  Speaker 3: options here. Yeah, Like in terms of ground options, taking islands,
• 46:17
  Speaker 3: you're sitting ducks for drones, for missiles for you.
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: Know, they want us to invade. They've even said that.
• 46:22
  Speaker 3: They're like, we've been preparing for this, and we want
• 46:24
  Speaker 3: you to come and to try and take our territory.
• 46:26
  Speaker 3: We're happy to try and to fight you. A lot
• 46:28
  Speaker 3: of them will die, but it will actually probably mobilize
• 46:30
  Speaker 3: their population more than ever. And of course they want
• 46:33
  Speaker 3: the American populace to turn against casualties, so for them
• 46:36
  Speaker 3: it might even be a good thing. Now on the
• 46:38
  Speaker 3: islands and the straits and all that stuff. The military
• 46:41
  Speaker 3: logic would not necessarily be one that would truly break,
• 46:45
  Speaker 3: you know, the negotiation power. I really think that the
• 46:48
  Speaker 3: nuclear option is the only one, or is the only
• 46:50
  Speaker 3: one where he could potentially try and sell it as
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: the end. Now I don't even think it would be.
• 46:56
  Speaker 3: I don't even think it would be the end. I
• 46:57
  Speaker 3: think it would probably get us deeper into it. But
• 46:59
  Speaker 3: in his mind, and a true surrender is not on
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: the table. You have to do something, that's all I
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: can see them and trying to do right now.
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: Of course, Gambler, it's just me. I could be wrong.
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: He's a big risk taker. He's a big ambler. So
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: I mean, I think there's a logic to what you're saying.
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: Because they name all these different islands that they could
• 47:15
  Speaker 2: come in and occupy. The problem with all the islands
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: is the same. I mean, first of all, it's not easy.
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: You're like a sitting duck there. But let's say you're
• 47:21
  Speaker 2: able to take over the island, then you're there and
• 47:25
  Speaker 2: you continue to be a sitting duck and then you
• 47:27
  Speaker 2: have to occupy it what forever. So no, that's not
• 47:31
  Speaker 2: if you're looking to be able to declare mission accomplished
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: and walk away. That's the opposite of that. That's you
• 47:37
  Speaker 2: being embedded indefinitely on this Iranian island, you know, getting
• 47:41
  Speaker 2: your troops expo having your troops exposed and killed whatever
• 47:44
  Speaker 2: the Iranians feel like it, and doesn't take that much
• 47:47
  Speaker 2: for them to be able to again exact pain. If
• 47:50
  Speaker 2: you've got American service members occupying one of these islands,
• 47:53
  Speaker 2: it will not fully solve the problem with the straight
• 47:56
  Speaker 2: of horm mooves. And again you're there indefinitely. So okay,
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: that's that's one option. If you're trying to find some
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: spectacular off ramp and you've you know, you're still high
• 48:07
  Speaker 2: on your quote unquote success in Venezuela. Yeah, maybe you
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: go with the what is truly like an insane and
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: insanely risky option to try to drop you know, paratroopers
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: on the ground in Iran and secure this loose nuclear
• 48:21
  Speaker 2: material that is buried underground in some of which they
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: don't even know where it is, and try to use
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: that to declare mission accomplish. Problem is there too, not
• 48:30
  Speaker 2: only Okay, let's say that by some miracle, you pull
• 48:32
  Speaker 2: this off or some facsimile of it off enough so
• 48:34
  Speaker 2: that you can say, look, we did it. Okay, we're
• 48:36
  Speaker 2: going away. You think Israel's going to stop? Are you
• 48:39
  Speaker 2: going to constrain Israel? Because there's no evidence of that,
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: and the Iranians do not you know, accept the idea
• 48:45
  Speaker 2: that Israel acts independently of us, because they don't. So
• 48:49
  Speaker 2: you know, they're not fools enough to buy intoel. That's
• 48:51
  Speaker 2: just Israel doing that. We have nothing to do with it.
• 48:53
  Speaker 2: So if Israel continues to attack them and mess with them,
• 48:56
  Speaker 2: and they're going to continue to you know, hit our service,
• 48:58
  Speaker 2: hit our bases in the region, etc. And then we're
• 49:01
  Speaker 2: right back where we started, So I don't know. That's
• 49:04
  Speaker 2: why we look at all of this and it's very
• 49:06
  Speaker 2: hard to see how any of it, even if in
• 49:09
  Speaker 2: the fantasy land where it succeeds spectacularly beyond anyone's wildest dreams,
• 49:14
  Speaker 2: it still doesn't seem like it's any way to get
• 49:17
  Speaker 2: to an off ramp. It seems more likely to get
• 49:19
  Speaker 2: a bunch of service members killed, and you know, push
• 49:22
  Speaker 2: us one war, cheating up the escalation ladder, and get
• 49:25
  Speaker 2: us further embedded and meshed and think this thing indefinitely.
• 49:28
  Speaker 3: The other thing I've been thinking a lot about, let's
• 49:29
  Speaker 3: put the next one up here just to kind of
• 49:31
  Speaker 3: prove this point out, is that we actually have made
• 49:33
  Speaker 3: this ex essential for a couple of parties. One is Israel,
• 49:36
  Speaker 3: because now they're screwed. They have to finish the job right,
• 49:39
  Speaker 3: because now they really are a threat and they're really
• 49:42
  Speaker 3: low on interceptors.
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: The other is the golf.
• 49:44
  Speaker 3: So how can the golf truly be safe with an
• 49:48
  Speaker 3: existing Iranian regime? They can't, right, they need regime change
• 49:53
  Speaker 3: now at this point, even though they wanted to avoid
• 49:55
  Speaker 3: it in the past. Well, here we have some reporting
• 49:58
  Speaker 3: from the New York Times that Emily flagged, which is
• 50:00
  Speaker 3: that the MBS. The leader of Saudi Arabia, has been
• 50:04
  Speaker 3: arguing that the United States should consider putting ground troops
• 50:07
  Speaker 3: in Iran to seize energy infrastructure and to force the
• 50:10
  Speaker 3: government out of power. Why because for them, they've taken
• 50:15
  Speaker 3: hits now with in Aramco, Dahron, They've got these hoothies
• 50:19
  Speaker 3: down in the Red Sea. They've had their refineries at
• 50:22
  Speaker 3: Yanbu hit, they've had the straits closed. This is an insane,
• 50:26
  Speaker 3: actual existential threat to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, to Qatar,
• 50:31
  Speaker 3: to all of these countries. So Qatar has been courageous.
• 50:34
  Speaker 3: I'll give them credit. They're like, look, we have to
• 50:36
  Speaker 3: live with Iran. It is what it is. You know,
• 50:38
  Speaker 3: we're a small country. They're a big country. We're not
• 50:40
  Speaker 3: that far away from each other. But Saudi Ua means
• 50:43
  Speaker 3: are filthy rich, large powers. For them, they've had tremendous
• 50:46
  Speaker 3: economic damage and they rely on foreign investment and foreign
• 50:51
  Speaker 3: buyers more than anything. So you messed with oil, you can't.
• 50:55
  Speaker 3: We can't be having this right. So for them, they're
• 50:57
  Speaker 3: actually itching to try and get into the war. The Saudis,
• 50:59
  Speaker 3: they've been Trump, Hey, yeah, let's do it. Let's put
• 51:02
  Speaker 3: ground troops in there. That's another issue is now you
• 51:04
  Speaker 3: have allies who have divergent interests from ours. They need
• 51:09
  Speaker 3: us to go all in to finish the job for them.
• 51:11
  Speaker 3: They don't have the capacity. So that's a big problem.
• 51:14
  Speaker 3: Now you have Israel and you have the Golf, who
• 51:16
  Speaker 3: again we put them in danger, but the Golf at
• 51:19
  Speaker 3: this point they're stuck with us. It's like a marriage
• 51:22
  Speaker 3: and they're like, well, no, you have to go. And
• 51:24
  Speaker 3: so that escalates the logic.
• 51:27
  Speaker 2: Well, and how much money does Trump and his family
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: have tens of business investments throughout the region too, that
• 51:33
  Speaker 2: are totally cooked as long as you have, you know,
• 51:36
  Speaker 2: an Iranian government in there that could any day send
• 51:39
  Speaker 2: one of their shawhead drones over and bomb your hotel.
• 51:41
  Speaker 3: Not just Trump, right, We've got our entire VC, you
• 51:45
  Speaker 3: know class Yeah, the entire Silicon Valley ego. You know
• 51:47
  Speaker 3: how much Saudi money is sitting in Uber or even
• 51:52
  Speaker 3: in Twitter, I mean the current on Twitter. You want
• 51:54
  Speaker 3: to talk about all these massive fortune five hundred companies.
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: Do you have any idea how.
• 51:59
  Speaker 3: Much the Saudi ra the Saudis, the Kuwaits, the Amurtis,
• 52:03
  Speaker 3: how much money they have flown in US banks and
• 52:06
  Speaker 3: all that, and of course for them, they're like, hey,
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: all right, well maybe we'll pull it out if you
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: don't finish the job and secure our interest. For us
• 52:13
  Speaker 3: not even to mention here, the backbone of the Northern
• 52:15
  Speaker 3: Virginia economy is what defense contractors. Who do you think
• 52:18
  Speaker 3: keeps these people afloat? Not just the us UA and everybody.
• 52:21
  Speaker 3: They've already purchased multip They've already put in purchase orders
• 52:24
  Speaker 3: in the last month for more thads, for more missiles,
• 52:27
  Speaker 3: all granted under emergency authority, which is a huge boon
• 52:31
  Speaker 3: to the defense contracting industry. So put all that together,
• 52:34
  Speaker 3: so you have the region itself which actually is aligned Israel,
• 52:39
  Speaker 3: the Gulf. They need regime change. America's got the only
• 52:42
  Speaker 3: troops that actually do anything about it. And now though,
• 52:44
  Speaker 3: let's look at the other side to close the loop.
• 52:46
  Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen. The Iranians
• 52:49
  Speaker 3: here now saying, based on some data, Iran's enemies, with
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: the support of one of the regional countries, are preparing
• 52:55
  Speaker 3: to occupy one of Iranian islands. All enemy movements are
• 52:59
  Speaker 3: under full survey as if they step out of line
• 53:01
  Speaker 3: all the vital infrastructure of that regional country will, without restriction,
• 53:06
  Speaker 3: become the target of relentless attacks, probably a shot at
• 53:09
  Speaker 3: Saudi Arabia, We're not exactly sure. We have also seen
• 53:13
  Speaker 3: some reporting from many of the analysts in the Gulf
• 53:17
  Speaker 3: is that one thing about Iran is that they've done
• 53:20
  Speaker 3: horizontal escalation, right, is they've gone all the way out. Well,
• 53:23
  Speaker 3: if we try to see some of their coasts, what
• 53:25
  Speaker 3: if they tries to seize the UAE or Kuwait or Qatar, Right,
• 53:30
  Speaker 3: you only need a couple of boats and some you know,
• 53:32
  Speaker 3: I mean, how how well defended are these countries from
• 53:36
  Speaker 3: an amphibious assault.
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: Nobody knows. Have they even thought about it?
• 53:40
  Speaker 2: The tops not I saw most theories were UAE and Bahrain, right,
• 53:44
  Speaker 2: and Bahrain is you know, roughly fifty to fifty Shia Muslim.
• 53:48
  Speaker 2: We've already seen some unrest there where the population is like, yo,
• 53:52
  Speaker 2: we're actually on a run side. We're not on your side.
• 53:55
  Speaker 2: We don't like these I mean, these are installed family
• 53:58
  Speaker 2: dictatorships that you know, we prop up because they do
• 54:02
  Speaker 2: what we want them to do, and in exchange for that,
• 54:04
  Speaker 2: you know, we protect them and do these deals with them. Etc.
• 54:07
  Speaker 2: Although I don't think they're to feeling too protected anymore
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: in any case. I mean, you a, how many actual
• 54:12
  Speaker 2: like UA citizens even are there? Not many?
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: Oh?
• 54:16
  Speaker 3: Sorry, I'm the only thing of Dubai, but yeah, yeah,
• 54:18
  Speaker 3: it's probably like five to one foreigners to to actual
• 54:21
  Speaker 3: natives in the UAE.
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I mean if and that's why Iran hasn't
• 54:27
  Speaker 2: come close to exhausting the things they could get. They
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: haven't come close, right, I mean they in the early
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: days we saw some luxury hotels and things hit, which
• 54:36
  Speaker 2: is not totally clear that it was Iran, but there
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: was definitely you know, damage in Dubai and some shocking things.
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: How easy would it be to I mean, you've got
• 54:44
  Speaker 2: US service members staying in hotels now throughout the region.
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: You don't think they have any idea where any of
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: them are. Of course they do, they know where some
• 54:50
  Speaker 2: of them are. You know, you've got a population some
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: of them are hostile to their own governments. You don't
• 54:54
  Speaker 2: think they're feeding information to the Iranians, posting things on
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: social media to let people know, you know, what's going
• 54:59
  Speaker 2: on there, so they could do they could do that.
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: The Huthias have not gotten involved over on the red seat.
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: They could do that. They could actually, like you said,
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: change the change the borders themselves. Okay, you're gonna invade
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: and occupy us in Lebanon whatever. Okay, Well, we've got
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: our own ideas for the region, and you know, going
• 55:15
  Speaker 2: into Bahrain or going into U eight. There are so
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: many more things they could more aggressively even shut down
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: the straight up homos where right now they're letting friendly
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: ships through, which is easing some of the pain in
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: the oil market. We'll talk about that in a moment.
• 55:28
  Speaker 2: You know, by at least having some of that oil
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: in the global market, they could take a more hardline
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: approach there as well. So there are many more things
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: that the Iranians actually could do. So they have far
• 55:40
  Speaker 2: from exhausted their capabilities in terms of the pain that
• 55:44
  Speaker 2: they could inflict here.
• 55:45
  Speaker 3: Yes, and then finally, I think what we need to
• 55:47
  Speaker 3: mention here is about tomorrow.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Tomorrow is a very important day.
• 55:51
  Speaker 3: Let's put this up here on the screen B nine, please,
• 55:54
  Speaker 3: is that the thousands of Marines are now set to
• 55:58
  Speaker 3: arrive in the region in sentcom on the exact same
• 56:02
  Speaker 3: day as the Trump deadline. So keep that very much
• 56:05
  Speaker 3: in mind. That is the Japan based amphibious assault ship
• 56:09
  Speaker 3: USS Tripoli, roughly twenty two hundred marines on board. From
• 56:12
  Speaker 3: the thirty first Marine Expeditionary Unit. You have another one
• 56:16
  Speaker 3: which is on its way, and of course you also
• 56:17
  Speaker 3: had the eighty second Airborne where. Look, we don't know exactly.
• 56:22
  Speaker 3: We do know based on the reporting, we know a
• 56:24
  Speaker 3: couple of things. Number One, the command element was given
• 56:27
  Speaker 3: orders to go to Sencam to go to the region.
• 56:30
  Speaker 3: The actual number of troops it's probably classified. They're going
• 56:33
  Speaker 3: to try and keep it as under wraps as possible.
• 56:36
  Speaker 3: They could already be there, They might be on their way.
• 56:38
  Speaker 3: Their mission is to be able to deploy in eighteen
• 56:40
  Speaker 3: hours anywhere in the world, so obviously they're well trained
• 56:42
  Speaker 3: for this. It would probably happen under the cover of darkness.
• 56:45
  Speaker 3: It'll be decoys, et cetera. So we're never actually going
• 56:48
  Speaker 3: to know. They really already could be there and prepared
• 56:50
  Speaker 3: ready to go. So keep that in mind as well.
• 56:52
  Speaker 3: Is that you have marines and a lot some of
• 56:56
  Speaker 3: this is feints. If you were to ask me, I
• 56:58
  Speaker 3: think that the marine element is probably the faint because
• 57:02
  Speaker 3: what I would think is that they're going to try
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: and pose as if they're about to take over some island.
• 57:06
  Speaker 3: That's kind of what they want to concentrate their military resources,
• 57:09
  Speaker 3: while you have a paratrobe re unit which is capable
• 57:11
  Speaker 3: of coming in and deploying anywhere across the country. So
• 57:13
  Speaker 3: they want to keep the Iranian attention divided and uncertain
• 57:17
  Speaker 3: as to where actually some sort of landing or some
• 57:19
  Speaker 3: sort of attack is going to actually take place. But
• 57:22
  Speaker 3: some of these units may be employed at any time
• 57:25
  Speaker 3: obviously to go in and to participate in a very
• 57:28
  Speaker 3: very risky operation. Yeah, and the reason why it's truly
• 57:31
  Speaker 3: risky is that it's not a lot of people, like
• 57:34
  Speaker 3: they would have to come in for something for what
• 57:37
  Speaker 3: and are they really going to have the protection that
• 57:39
  Speaker 3: they need.
• 57:40
  Speaker 1: Very unlikely. That's the danger.
• 57:41
  Speaker 2: And Iran is taunting us. They're saying, too American soldiers,
• 57:44
  Speaker 2: come closer, you know, sending out memes. Arachi from the
• 57:47
  Speaker 2: beginning has been like we are waiting for them, come on,
• 57:50
  Speaker 2: like we're waiting for I mean, they're practically begging us
• 57:53
  Speaker 2: to do some sort of ground invasion because they think that,
• 57:56
  Speaker 2: you know, they can drop this in effectively a killbox.
• 57:59
  Speaker 2: So I think, you know, and I don't think it's
• 58:01
  Speaker 2: just bluster. I think they do feel I think they
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: feel very confident about the amount of pain that they
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: could inflict there. So it's you know, and so you'd
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: look at it and go, well, I mean these options
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: all seem insane, and even as I agree with your
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: logic about, you know, the way Trump would probably think,
• 58:16
  Speaker 2: although he is so erratic that it's just very hard
• 58:19
  Speaker 2: to say and changes his mind on a dime, depending
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: on a whim blah blah blah. And we've seen that
• 58:23
  Speaker 2: many times. But I will say one thing. You know,
• 58:26
  Speaker 2: you really can't take anything he says seriously because he's
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: such a fabulous a liar. I mean, you just make
• 58:32
  Speaker 2: things up with the fly, et cetera. We did learn
• 58:35
  Speaker 2: allegedly this big gift that the Iranians supposedly gave was
• 58:40
  Speaker 2: allowing some tanker through the straight of Hormos, but they
• 58:42
  Speaker 2: were already doing that anyway. In any case, you can't
• 58:46
  Speaker 2: listen to what he says. But I will say, you know,
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: the build up to Venezuela, there were actually you know,
• 58:52
  Speaker 2: they actually move things, move military assets into the regional
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: So I mean, we've paid very close attention to and
• 58:59
  Speaker 2: unlike with his the other various threats against Greenland or
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: Mexico or Canada or whatever, there were actually military assets there, exactly.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: And in the build up to Iran, same thing. All
• 59:09
  Speaker 2: of these military assets brought into the region. So I
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: would pay much more close attention to what assets are
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: being mustered versus the words that you know constantly flow
• 59:19
  Speaker 2: out of his mouth, which oftentimes are contradictory and make
• 59:22
  Speaker 2: no sense. When he has brought military assets to the region,
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: he has used them. So I think that's the you know,
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: that's the thing to look at from past behavior. That
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: is the indication of.
• 59:32
  Speaker 3: Where we are very like absolutely, and you know, you know,
• 59:34
  Speaker 3: part of the reason why almost every president does it
• 59:37
  Speaker 3: is it's the easy option. The diplomacy stuff that's actually hard,
• 59:41
  Speaker 3: that's way harder. Couple right now, and you've got some
• 59:44
  Speaker 3: guy raising Cain. He's wearing his Patagonia vest and he's
• 59:48
  Speaker 3: sitting there and they're selling you a dream.
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: Of course we could do it, right. Couple a tepid thing.
• 59:52
  Speaker 3: You got an idiot like Pete Hegseth and others in
• 59:55
  Speaker 3: the oval or in the situation room. You've got a
• 59:57
  Speaker 3: bunch of people who allegedly were against the walls or
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 3: just not. You know, they're telling Trump whatever he wants
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 3: to hear. You know, did we do the highlight reel thing?
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 2: Oh? Have that now? I thought we had it. I
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: was looking forward too. Maybe we can add it and post.
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 2: But Ryan and Emily mentioned it yesterday. But it really
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 2: is an important window into Trump's information bubble. And this
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 2: is all, by the way, the way he constructed his administration. Okay,
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: what he gets in terms of a briefing is like
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 2: a boom boom, pew pew highlight reel of Americans doing
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 2: badass bombings. It's like this, you know, yeah, and very
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 2: little information coming from you know, about the amount of
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: damage the Iranians have been able to do. He's getting
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: very little information about that. He's getting these little short,
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: couple of minute long brief like hype reels. That's the
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 2: president of the United States. That is what he's getting,
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 2: Like the equivalent of the stupid fucking like DHS Twitter feed.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 2: That is what he's taking in. I mean, it's just
• 1:00:56
  Speaker 2: it's it's so disturbing and disgusting. But when you're thinking
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 2: about how he's viewing all of this and all of
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 2: these insane things, and all the victory narrative about oh,
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 2: they're obliterated and we've won, and victory is ours and
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 2: they're begging us to talk, et cetera. Just keep in
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: mind that his old ass, declining brain is just being
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: fed like Fox News propaganda condensed down into these two
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 2: minute reels.
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 1: It's the two minute reels plus Fox News propaganda. So
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 1: those two things are very devastating, repotent, and dangerous.
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: How do we get to this point where it's I mean,
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 2: it's just like you see these around like multiple PhDs
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: and whatever, and they're actually like have thought about this
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: and have a strategy, and we're just like Middle Eastern war.
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: I don't think that'll affect the oil markets.
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 3: Do you be careful when you go down this road,
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 3: because you may find out that totalitarianism often can breed decently.
• 1:01:50
  Speaker 1: That's a whole other that's a whole other conversation.
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 3: Turning now to enlistment and part of the other potential
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 3: dangers here for the United State. It's going to put
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 3: this up here on the screen. The US Army has
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 3: now raised enlistment age to forty two and eased marijuana
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 3: policies to bolster their ranks. The change takes effect April twentieth,
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 3: alongside a new rule dropping restrictions for recruits with a
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 3: single marijuana possession conviction. Obviously, I think people know my
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 3: feelings on the marijuana front, but generally not usually a
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 3: good thing. Whenever you have to say, hey, you've been
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 3: caught with drugs before, no worries. Oh oh you're only
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 3: thirty six. Come on in here, let's raise the age up.
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 2: You're only in your early forties, right, I'm come on down.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you're only for this is like Ukraine level stuff, right.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 3: In addition to the age requirement, the Army has removed
• 1:02:46
  Speaker 3: restrictions for recruits who have a single possession of marijuana
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 3: or drug paraphernalia. Previously that would have required a waiver
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 3: from the Pentagon and the passing of a drugged Wait,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 3: we're not going to drug test guys who've been caught
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 3: with drugs before.
• 1:02:58
  Speaker 1: What are we doing here? All right?
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 3: You want some a weed addict to be serving in
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 3: the military behind behind drug at a gun military?
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 1: According to Seth Hearts, oh that's even worse. Okay, get
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: them out too.
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 3: Currently, the Navy and Air Force permit recruits over the
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 3: age of forty, but the Marine Corps as a maximum
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 3: age of enlistment for twenty eight fiscal year twenty twenty five.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: The Army did see a recruiting bump following seven years
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 3: of decline, but in twenty twenty two. In many of
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 3: the years prior, they significantly missed.
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: A recruitment goal.
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 3: Part of the problem, I'm assuming is that the twenty
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 3: twenty five Army recruitment bump or US military recruitment bump
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 3: is not enough to make up for like a twenty
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 3: five percent deficit for years under the Biden administration, and
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 3: so having to raise the recruitment age. It's just not
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 3: something I would personally do in a time of war.
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 3: Because this was by far of all the news that's
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 3: broken through. I saw this one break through the normy
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 3: firewall more than anything.
• 1:03:51
  Speaker 1: People are like, wait what, They're like, whoa, whoa, whoa.
• 1:03:54
  Speaker 1: They're like, I didn't sign up for any of this.
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 3: I will say, this is personally why I support a draft,
• 1:03:59
  Speaker 3: because part of the problem with a volunteer all volunteer
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 3: and military, while yes, I think it makes it much
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 3: more professional, is it makes it much easier to deploy
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 3: without democratic consent and I mean of the governed. So
• 1:04:12
  Speaker 3: for example, post Vietnam, they said, well, what was the
• 1:04:16
  Speaker 3: most unpopular part of Vietnam the draft?
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 1: Well, let's just get rid of the draft part.
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 3: And by getting rid of that, Iraq, Afghanistan, the years
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 3: of the forever Wars. You take the best in the
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 3: brightest of these poorer areas, promise them the moon who
• 1:04:31
  Speaker 3: sign ups in Ford f one, fifties and all this
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 3: other stuff, and then you just ship them off and
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 3: it actually enables you to keep it going for a
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 3: longer period of time. So that's what I look at
• 1:04:40
  Speaker 3: this recruitment age expansion as is to try and expand
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 3: the pool to be able to offer all of these incentives,
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 3: like the financial incentives and stuff, which I don't I'm
• 1:04:49
  Speaker 3: not opposed to any of that per se, But what
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 3: it does is it creates the space to actually bring
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 3: more people in the military and have less democratic consent.
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 3: Like only one percent of people have ever served in
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 3: the US Armed forces. Very few people actually know people
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 3: who've served in the armed forces. It's one of the
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 3: biggest class divides. If your upper income, you probably don't
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 3: know anybody who's served in the military. It's extremely rare
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 3: if you're college educated, again very very rare. Your closest
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 3: connection might be like ROTC people on your campus, but
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 3: you're not even going to know necessarily like enlisted folks.
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 3: And that's the issue which we saw, is that with Vietnam.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 3: You know, yes we had a draft, but we had
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 3: basically the draft exclusion for a lot of the upper
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 3: elite who didn't have to go into serve. Is it
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 3: ends up becoming like the poor the uneducated who are
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 3: either forced by circumstances or tricked or told to go
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 3: into the war. And it creates exactly this type of situation.
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 3: When you are expanding recruitment age, it's usually a sign
• 1:05:47
  Speaker 3: either that the populace is to obese, which is true,
• 1:05:50
  Speaker 3: true drug addicted true to you know, for a variety
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 3: of reasons, like ineligible to serve. You have to create this,
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 3: we have to like suck people more in for incentives,
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 3: and it sends the message of we don't have enough
• 1:06:02
  Speaker 3: people and we might be coming for you.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: Yeah, And that's the danger.
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 3: Even though I do support a draft, but it's one
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 3: of those where I support it because I know that
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 3: it would do what it did under Vietnam, where people
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 3: were like I am not going for this war, like
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 3: this is not happening, which will force you to engage
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 3: harder in the democratic process.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 1: It's a matter of life and death.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: We also have reports that, you know, the number of
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: conscientious objectors is surging, that you have service members who
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: are saying things like I don't want to die for Israel.
• 1:06:30
  Speaker 2: So there is a lack I mean, think of who
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 2: the military is, largely young men, right some of many
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 2: of whom may have supported President Trump.
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: And statistically vast we did.
• 1:06:42
  Speaker 2: The vast majority of whom very likely opposed this war
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: because I mean, if you look at the numbers generationally,
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: you know, young people are the most opposed to it.
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: So you're going to have a lot of service members
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: who are you know, in the military right now who
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: are not down with this mission. So you have that
• 1:06:59
  Speaker 2: is you you also you know, just zooming out to
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: the sort of like more macro perspective. The best recruitment
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 2: tool is the like a miseration of the population because
• 1:07:08
  Speaker 2: if people are desperate, then and you're like, oh, we'll
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 2: give you this perk and that perk, and you'll be
• 1:07:12
  Speaker 2: able to like live and earn a decent salary and
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 2: you know and have some prospects in life, and so
• 1:07:18
  Speaker 2: as AI comes for like the you know, it's already
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 2: destroyed a lot of the blue collar job path. As
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 2: AI now comes for the white collar jobs as well.
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 2: With my daughter's graduating high school, I know a lot
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 2: of kids who she's graduating with that in my era
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 2: would have definitely been college bound who are now going
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: to the military. I know a lot. And so, you know,
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 2: I think you've got now this expansion. Obviously, it's very
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 2: ominous at a time of war, when you're looking at
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 2: a giant country like Iran, ninety plus million people, you know,
• 1:07:46
  Speaker 2: all sorts of capabilities present, threatening ground evasion. And that's
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: the moment when you jump the enlistment age from thirty
• 1:07:53
  Speaker 2: four to forty two. I mean that's also big jump, right,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: and we've seen what's happened in Ukraine. I mean it's
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: just very disturbing. And to your point about the draft,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: if that doesn't give them the numbers and we end
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 2: up in some big war in Iran, guess what the
• 1:08:09
  Speaker 2: next tool is. It is a draft. So I know
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 2: these things seem insane right now, but let's not forget
• 1:08:15
  Speaker 2: Caroline Levitt was asked Hey, people are worried about a draft.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: What do you have to say to that she wouldn't
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 2: rule it out. Let's take a listen to that moment.
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 6: Mothers out there are worried that we're going to have
• 1:08:25
  Speaker 6: a draft, that they're going to see their sons get
• 1:08:28
  Speaker 6: and daughters get involved in this. What do you want
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 6: to say about the president's plans for troops on the ground.
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 6: As we know, it's been largely an air campaign up
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 6: until now.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 5: It has been and it will continue to be. And
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 5: President Trump wisely does not remove options off of the table.
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 5: I know a lot of politicians like to do that quickly,
• 1:08:50
  Speaker 5: but the president, as commander in chief, wants to continue
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 5: to assess the success of this military operation. It's not
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 5: part of the current plan right now. But the again
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 5: wisely keeps his options on the table.
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: And you know, the most charitable reading of that Tsager
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: is that she was not responding directly to the peace
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: about the draft. She was responding to like, you know,
• 1:09:10
  Speaker 2: ground troops or whatever. But did they ever come out
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 2: and be like no, no, no, no, no, no drafts
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: like you guys took that out. No they didn't. They
• 1:09:17
  Speaker 2: let it just like they let you know stand what
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 2: Mike Kakabi said about Greater Israel project. Let that stand.
• 1:09:22
  Speaker 2: They let this stand. Look, they're they're happy to put
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: out a tweet. You know, the fake news media is
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: twisting her words. No, we didn't get any of that.
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 1: Yeah, exactly.
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 3: And this is why I mean as I said intellectually,
• 1:09:32
  Speaker 3: I support a draft, like if you want me to
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 3: leave my wife and my daughter, well it better be
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 3: first and good reason, like the entire populis and also
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 3: me and nobody else should be able to buy their
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 3: way out like they have in the past. Like if
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 3: we're in, okay, let's go, but then we all better
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 3: be bought in.
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 1: To this decision.
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 3: As a populist, we have clear defined ends. All of
• 1:09:52
  Speaker 3: our congressmen and others have voted for it. Fine, I
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 3: actually I can make I can make peace with that.
• 1:09:56
  Speaker 3: I can't make peace with some sort of piecemeal system.
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 3: And to watch the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Because
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 3: you were talking about economical thing, this is part of
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 3: the tragedy of it.
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: Because here's the truth.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 3: Joining the military is a fantastic financial decision. You will
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 3: get free education, you get paid actually pretty decently compared
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 3: to like a normal market wage, especially if you're a
• 1:10:15
  Speaker 3: newer graduate, if you're trying to buy a house in
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 3: the future USAA. I mean, there's no better program in
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 3: America than if you join the military, and that's part
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 3: of the why a lot of people.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: Do it, which I have zero issue with.
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 3: I do have an issue whenever it creates this economic
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 3: incentive at a time of war to potentially have to
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 3: go and serve in something which other people who are
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 3: more financially privileged don't have to do when they're not
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 3: bought into it. If the whole populace is not and
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 3: then those people are economically disenfranchised, it creates this There's
• 1:10:49
  Speaker 3: also a cultural difference.
• 1:10:50
  Speaker 1: There's you know a lot of people talking about it.
• 1:10:52
  Speaker 3: In the South, there's a military culture, so you're more
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 3: likely to join the military, and then it creates a
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 3: lot of division in our society. We lost four or
• 1:10:59
  Speaker 3: five thousand people during the Global War, and maybe actually
• 1:11:02
  Speaker 3: no seventy to five hundred people in the Global Warrant tear.
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 3: But if you look statistically at the counties that they're
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 3: concentrated in, the people who are quote unquote elite or
• 1:11:11
  Speaker 3: richer had almost no contact with those people or those families.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 3: So Iraq was a distant conversation, and unfortunately it looks
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 3: like that's.
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 1: What they want to recreate.
• 1:11:20
  Speaker 3: Like, yeah, who are the type of people we even
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 3: have marijuana convictions or drug paraphernalia conviction.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 1: In the first place.
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 3: Who are the type of people who are going to
• 1:11:28
  Speaker 3: want to join the military at age thirty? I mean,
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 3: who's a thirty nine year old who wants to join
• 1:11:32
  Speaker 3: the military. It's usually not like uber patriot. It could
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 3: be And no, you know, if you are one of
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 3: those people, God bless you. Most of the time, it's
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 3: probably I've got two kids, I need you know, I
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 3: need health insurance, I need a mortgage. I got to
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 3: make the shit work. Yeah, that's the worst possible thing.
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: Look, I understand your and I don't even disagree with
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 2: your like philosophical argument in favor of a draft, But
• 1:11:56
  Speaker 2: let me tell you if they try to implement a
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 2: draft right now for this fucking unpopular, monstrous, idiotic, illegal,
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 2: offensive war of choice, abs of fucking lutely not, American
• 1:12:06
  Speaker 2: people didn't want this, They didn't vote for this. You
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: explicitly ran against this, like no, no, no, no, no,
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 2: we are not doing this and the people who've already died.
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: It's been way too I mean, every single one has
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: been too many. And to your point, I mean a
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: bunch of like Reserve, you know, Reserve. They were thinking
• 1:12:24
  Speaker 2: I'm on this base and you know and kuwait, like
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: they're not thinking that they're at risk. And it does
• 1:12:30
  Speaker 2: sitting there in a double wide trailer getting blown up
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: by a shad drone or whatever. I mean, it's just
• 1:12:35
  Speaker 2: the cavalier way that they will just throw lives into
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 2: a meat grinder. And you know, I have to connect
• 1:12:42
  Speaker 2: it to the AI piece because they know that there's
• 1:12:45
  Speaker 2: going to be tons of extra superfluous human beings that
• 1:12:49
  Speaker 2: have nothing to do, and what better to do with
• 1:12:51
  Speaker 2: them than send them into some meat grinder. I honestly,
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 2: I genuinely think that's part of what's going on here too.
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: The logic of the oligarchs, as exposed in the Epstein files,
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: if it's perfectly with that notion. They don't see your
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: sons and daughters as fully human. They don't care about
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 2: whether they live or die. What they're looking at is
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: how do I profit? What does this do for me personally?
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 2: What does it do for my legacy? That is or
• 1:13:18
  Speaker 2: you know, what sort of compromising material might people have
• 1:13:21
  Speaker 2: on me. That is the way that these people think
• 1:13:23
  Speaker 2: and the way that they operate, and it shows in
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 2: this war.
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: Yeah, all right, let's get to polling.