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De-Escalation Imminent?📈Crypto Market Update🚨 · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: De escalation is emmin it today. We'll break it all
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: down for you.
• 0:03
  Speaker 2: There's a lot of news that starts to give us
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: a new signal into the markets. I do want to
• 0:07
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• 0:09
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  Speaker 1: So if you.
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• 0:33
  Speaker 1: Let's start off with.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: A clip of Trump talking about them wanting to make
• 0:38
  Speaker 2: a deal.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 3: They want very much to make a deal. We'd like
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  Speaker 3: to make a deal too. We're going to get together
• 0:45
  Speaker 3: today by probably phone, because it's very hard to find
• 0:51
  Speaker 3: the country. It's very hard for them to get out,
• 0:53
  Speaker 3: I guess. But well, at some point very soon meet
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  Speaker 3: We're doing a five day period. We'll see, yeah that
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  Speaker 3: goes and if it goes well, we're gonna end up
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  Speaker 3: with settling this. Otherwise we just keep bombing our little
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  Speaker 3: hearts yet, So.
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  Speaker 2: What you hear from Trump right there, one, of course,
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  Speaker 2: is the five day component, that of course could mean
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  Speaker 2: the negotiations are underway. That I think is still the
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: issue here, and I understand, yes, there's a lot of
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: other people saying that the negotiations aren't happening. If you
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  Speaker 2: look at this tweet right here, what just happened. This
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: is the whipsaw effect that it's happening that is having
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: on the US. Marcus Trump posted the US and Iran
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  Speaker 2: are in productive talks. Markets exploded instantly. You saw the
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  Speaker 2: SPX up, you saw NASDAC got Bitcoin up, and then
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: of course you saw Iran who came out behind this
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  Speaker 2: and said no, we're not doing that, and then of course.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: The market responded.
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  Speaker 2: So I ran, and many of you would say, well,
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: that's because you know Trump's crazy and this isn't happening.
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  Speaker 2: But in reality, maybe the fact is is that both
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  Speaker 2: sides are trying to keep the talks open by still
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  Speaker 2: showing power. So that's why the threat of Trump coming in,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: That's why I ran, responding with saying, hey, there was
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  Speaker 2: no negotiation. All of that could be playing into this
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  Speaker 2: right now. If you look at this here is of course,
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  Speaker 2: the breakdown of who it could be that is negotiating
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  Speaker 2: after Israel Clays in the US was negotiating with Iran's
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  Speaker 2: parliament speaker. This, of course, it appears that Trump and
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  Speaker 2: Israel may be manufacturing this claim in order to back
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  Speaker 2: Trump out of the threat to attack the infrastructure, the
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  Speaker 2: power grids, which is what the original initiation was on Friday.
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  Speaker 2: Remember that it was the forty eight hour timeline that
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  Speaker 2: of course Trump backed off of that, And now that's
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  Speaker 2: where we are today. If you look at the probability
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  Speaker 2: of a ceasefire, here's the March thirty first range, and
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: if you look at it right here, I'll go to
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  Speaker 2: the weekly you'll notice that it starts climbing.
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  Speaker 1: So are we seeing in potential?
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  Speaker 2: If you go to April fifteenth, and we'll go to
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  Speaker 2: the chart or the graph here on that also starting
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: to climb a little bit more aggressively. And then on
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  Speaker 2: to April thirtieth, graft also climbing right here on the
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  Speaker 2: one week up to over fifty percent. So the probability
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  Speaker 2: maybe there is something brewing in terms of some negotiation,
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  Speaker 2: at least in a de escalation side of things. And
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  Speaker 2: this could be playing out quickly into the markets. A
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  Speaker 2: lot of people I think are right now still though
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: very very gun shy. Here's Muhammed al Raain. He talks
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: about a current pre market price action marked by a
• 3:27
  Speaker 2: broad base decline in assets. We started to show you
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  Speaker 2: that right there, six to eight percent drops in gold
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  Speaker 2: and silver.
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  Speaker 1: That's something that's huge.
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  Speaker 2: And this is reflecting something that a lot of people
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  Speaker 2: did not anticipate, and that is flights to cash that
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  Speaker 2: has become the safe haven here. So how does this
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  Speaker 2: play out for the market going forward? He goes in
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  Speaker 2: and says, the next five days really matter.
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  Speaker 1: Take a look.
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  Speaker 4: It's an important turnaround because we were seeing flight to
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  Speaker 4: cash as the only safe haven, and that what's contract
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: markets in a significant manner. The big question for me
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  Speaker 4: right now is not only do these talks continue constructively,
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  Speaker 4: but can you get Israel to buy in as well?
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  Speaker 4: Because there are three warring parties in this war, so
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  Speaker 4: there's a lot of uncertainty still. But it's much better
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  Speaker 4: for markets than what it looked like just ten minutes
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  Speaker 4: ago if the US can force objectives, because right now
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  Speaker 4: the US is the only one that can declare victory.
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  Speaker 4: The other two cannot. Declare victory. So if the US
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  Speaker 4: can impose as well on the other two, then we
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  Speaker 4: have an interruption into something that went from simply disruptions
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  Speaker 4: to structural damage that takes years to fix.
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  Speaker 2: All right, So from disruption to infrastructural damage takes years
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  Speaker 2: to fix.
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  Speaker 1: I agree with that.
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  Speaker 2: If you look at this tweet right here, this may
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  Speaker 2: give you a little bit more understanding.
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  Speaker 1: While there will be much for volatility. It appears we
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  Speaker 1: are on st.
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: Nine to ten of the playbook, and I think you
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  Speaker 2: guys have followed this enough. We've mentioned it many times.
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  Speaker 2: Kobec did a whole playbook around this, the Conflict playbook,
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  Speaker 2: And if you go all the way down, let me
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: scan real quickly down to nine and ten, which is
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  Speaker 2: the deal and the narrative framing is Trump in that
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  Speaker 2: phase right now where there's a deal possibly underway. The
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: narrative framing has been very clear. And then of course
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  Speaker 2: number ten is the violent repricing and political victory lap
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  Speaker 2: that is where we could be right now, and I
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  Speaker 2: kind of agree with that based at least what we're
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  Speaker 2: seeing so far. So this is where reframing kind of
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  Speaker 2: plays into this, and how Bessent is responding to this,
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: and what he's talking about is the inflationary impact of
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  Speaker 2: this war and that we're going to have higher prices
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  Speaker 2: for you know, a little bit of time fifty days,
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  Speaker 2: and he's saying, in relationship to fifty years of no
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  Speaker 2: Iranian news, that's the narrative repricing, that's the narrative that's
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  Speaker 2: being paid around that. And then you've got Freddy kind
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: of hits on with fisially upgraded from transportory inflation to
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: strategic inflation.
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  Speaker 1: Nice bold reaper in there. Very interesting right now.
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  Speaker 2: So when you look at a few other things, and
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  Speaker 2: that is de escalation potentials. Here the UK comes in
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  Speaker 2: says hey, you should de escalate. Then you have China
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  Speaker 2: coming in urges de escalation as Hormo's crisis deepens. Then
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  Speaker 2: you have right here Israel that says is de escalation
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  Speaker 2: even possible? So it's a continuation of the push from
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  Speaker 2: Israel to keep the US in this war. All right,
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  Speaker 2: So let me lead into a clip here because I
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  Speaker 2: know many people say, Paul, you're talking about war and
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  Speaker 2: then you're talking about.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Taking advantage of it. That's not the case.
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  Speaker 2: Here. We're a market channel and we understand all of
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  Speaker 2: this is bad, but these are geopolitical and macro impacts.
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  Speaker 2: No matter what way you look at it and how
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  Speaker 2: you play this is going to be important, and understanding
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  Speaker 2: where timing is going to play into this is very key.
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  Speaker 2: So Tom Lee goes into that very exact moment and
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: he talks about when timing may play into this from
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: a market perspective.
• 7:08
  Speaker 5: Take a look, you're not changing that seventy seven hundred.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Were not one.
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  Speaker 6: I think seventy seven hundred was a conservative estimate to
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  Speaker 6: start because markets have been steadily repricing on a pe basis,
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  Speaker 6: and we're only assuming modest PE expansion this year to
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  Speaker 6: seventy seven hundred. And as much as the war is
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  Speaker 6: creating obviously a huge short term setback and a lot
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  Speaker 6: of uncertainty, including effects on monetary policy, ultimately wars are
• 7:37
  Speaker 6: going to be good for the US economy and the
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  Speaker 6: US stock market. So I think as we get towards
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  Speaker 6: the end of the year, the market stops thinking less
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  Speaker 6: about the crisis element of this and more on the opportunity.
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  Speaker 5: I know, when things seem the worst is often when
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  Speaker 5: the market does what you least expected to do.
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  Speaker 3: Correct.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's right.
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  Speaker 6: I mean I think right now, if we asked any investor,
• 8:00
  Speaker 6: they can list all the reasons why they're worried and
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  Speaker 6: what could go wrong, and that's what gets priced in
• 8:06
  Speaker 6: very quickly. But we have to know that that's counterbalanced
• 8:10
  Speaker 6: with opportunities have always emerged. I mean, whether when we
• 8:13
  Speaker 6: look at the last eight major war events, the market
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  Speaker 6: was always bottoming very early into the conflict.
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  Speaker 2: So bottoming early into the conflict, if he is right
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  Speaker 2: timing plays into this ladder this year, that would be
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  Speaker 2: a factor going into these markets.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: So what are you looking for?
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: You want to own growth stocks or growth opportunities, and
• 8:35
  Speaker 2: he breaks that down.
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  Speaker 5: Take a look historically, going back one hundred or whatever years,
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  Speaker 5: the S and P ten's the fall about fifteen percent
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  Speaker 5: once on average in a midterm electioneer we're only down five.
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  Speaker 5: That seems complacent to me.
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  Speaker 6: Yeah, it's a good point. I think we have to
• 8:55
  Speaker 6: look at global stocks. Last year more money was made
• 8:59
  Speaker 6: owning emerging markets, owning gold over stocks. Emerging markets have
• 9:05
  Speaker 6: corrected a lot more than the S and P has
• 9:08
  Speaker 6: because the world is worried about growth. And as you
• 9:12
  Speaker 6: worry about growth, you want to own the growth index,
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  Speaker 6: which is the S and p.
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  Speaker 1: Five hundred.
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  Speaker 2: And if you're worried about growth, you have to look
• 9:20
  Speaker 2: at clarity, and clarity is going to be the growth
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: element for crypto. If you consider what's happening right now
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: in DC Crypto and the bank reps head to Capitol Hill.
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: We are seeing some movement. Here's a piece right here
• 9:33
  Speaker 2: by Crypto and America. They hit on it right here
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: and be heading to Capitol Hill this week to review
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: the product long and way to buy compromise over whether
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: crypto firms should be allowed to pay customers. Now, we think,
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: and this is what I've kind of banked on for
• 9:47
  Speaker 2: quite some time, is that this is most most likely
• 9:50
  Speaker 2: going to be a ban on idle balances passive yield.
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: So that if that is the case, and I think
• 9:57
  Speaker 2: the banks have continued to push back from it. But
• 9:59
  Speaker 2: if that is the case, I think that coinbase and
• 10:02
  Speaker 2: the rest of the market is they're going to walk
• 10:04
  Speaker 2: away from that and say it's a win. And I
• 10:07
  Speaker 2: think many people are just saying we're done fighting. We
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: want to get this on its way. There's too many
• 10:11
  Speaker 2: other opportunities here to kind of get this market into
• 10:13
  Speaker 2: the next layer. And if it does come together, we
• 10:16
  Speaker 2: are in the right place at the right time because
• 10:20
  Speaker 2: of again timing in the market. All right, So when
• 10:23
  Speaker 2: you look at we get past this war in a
• 10:27
  Speaker 2: good way and everybody's out of it, markets are moving again.
• 10:31
  Speaker 2: The problem is that you've got economic potential impacts that
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: are real, and one of the biggest ones is what
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: we're seeing right now with ICE. And this, of course
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: is Trump deploying ICE at US airports. I want to
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: play a clip from Tom Holman where he kind of
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: breaks down the narrative.
• 10:47
  Speaker 6: Here, take a look, or will ICE officers also be
• 10:52
  Speaker 6: doing immigration enforcement while they are at the airports.
• 10:55
  Speaker 4: We do immigration enforcement at airports all the time, so
• 10:59
  Speaker 4: that going change change, all right.
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: So he's not necessarily being hawkish there. I think he's
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: just responding to Dana on that. But if you look
• 11:07
  Speaker 2: at what's happening in the airports, I mean, that's that
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: is the TSA lines. Guys, These are getting out of control.
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: I ended up canceling flights because of this, and it
• 11:18
  Speaker 2: looks as though we're going to start to see this
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: in a lot more airports. This is where we are
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: right now. This is CNN publishing at thirteen airports. This
• 11:26
  Speaker 2: to my knowledge, has already expanded beyond thirteen. But you've
• 11:29
  Speaker 2: got a lot of major hubs in there, including Atlanta,
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: Houston in there, New York obviously, Philly, excuse me, Phoenix,
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: and also Newark. So this is a bad situation because
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: it's going to put more pressure on Republicans. It's going
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: to put more pressure on the economy because if we
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: see the air travel slow down in the United States,
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: that's a big issue economically, and it does start to
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: put some more pressure I think on how this plays
• 11:55
  Speaker 2: out in the midterms. Now, if you look at the midterms,
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: which party is gonna win the Senate Right now, Republicans
• 12:01
  Speaker 2: have slipped up again in terms of taking the lead
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: at around fifty three percent. If they get out of
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: this war, they may come back to a little bit
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: more of a control issue. But I think the Ice
• 12:13
  Speaker 2: situation will have to be solved for them to get
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: into a position where they can fight in the midterms
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: where they potentially have a chance. This is all playing
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: into it right now. So you've got clarity, you've got
• 12:25
  Speaker 2: the Iranian war, and you've got the issues that are
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: happening now with TSA and also just in general getting
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: bills through DC, which is the biggest problem and those
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: are the biggest threats. Also, even though just getting clarity
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: done because I remember, even though they come to an agreement,
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: doesn't mean that we have a bill. So all of
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: that has to happen. It's very sensitive. A lot of
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: things could still break, so we're going to be covering this.
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: There's a very busy week this week, so stick around.
• 13:00
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• 13:02
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• 13:06
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