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Daily Market Podcast Jul 7 · M6 Capital Daily Market Podcast

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning.
• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: This is Chris Myers with M6 Capital Management with our Daily Market Letter on Tuesday, July 7th.
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Walking in this morning, December corn is up two and a quarter at 460.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: November soybeans are up four at 11.96 and a quarter.
• 0:14
  SPEAKER_00: August crude is up 60 cents at 69.10.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Today I want to spend quite a bit of time focusing on corn.
• 0:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, given this weather forecast that we talked about yesterday, and it's still valid this morning.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we need to address what could this weather forecast mean and what does it mean to the market for a lower U.S.
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: corn yield?
• 0:38
  SPEAKER_00: Yes, we are early in the pollination process.
• 0:40
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, as of yesterday, we were only 16% silking according to USDA.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: We clearly have a lot of growing season left to go in front of us.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: But we all need to understand that we have zero room for error in this U.S.
• 0:55
  SPEAKER_00: corn yield.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: Let's begin with U.S.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: export demand.
• 0:59
  SPEAKER_00: Global corn demand is record strong.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Globally, 2026 wheat production from several of the main exporters looks to be down massively from last year.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's down in the US, in the EU, in Ukraine, in Canada, in Argentina, in Australia.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, the only, actually, the only exporter where it looks like um production was maybe slightly bigger than a year ago is Russia.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a lot of wheat that goes into feeding in Asia, across Europe, North Africa.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: So a big wheat production loss keeps corn feed demand big globally.
• 1:44
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: Um, we discussed, also discussed that corn exports from three of the top five exporters should be small for a long time.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: And this would be Russia, Ukraine, and Brazil.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: That puts way too much corn export demand back on Argentina and the U.S.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: And Argentina, they can only do what they can do.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Thus, the reason that U.S.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: corn outstanding export sales, that's corn that's sold but not yet shipped, they are record large right now.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And they have been for weeks and weeks and weeks.
• 2:19
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: We're and that's not even factoring in any U.S.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: corn exports going to China yet.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: Not yet, anyway.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: So, anyway you look at it, U.S.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: corn export demand should be massive for a long, long time.
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_00: Well into this time next year, probably.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: So if we factor in, if we take all of USDA's numbers from last week, their stocks numbers and their acreage numbers, and we factor in a trend type corn yield, a 183 yield, just like USDA is using, and we keep big export demand well into next year, we end up with a 1.7 billion bushel ending stocks for the 26-27 crop year.
• 3:12
  SPEAKER_00: So for grands and giggles, what if we drop the US corn yield 2%?
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Now, if you go back and look, a typical bad crop is down at least four to five percent.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: So we're for grands and giggles, let's just knock two percent off the corn yield.
• 3:31
  SPEAKER_00: Well, that gives you a 1.3 billion bushel ending stocks.
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: And remember, this is still not assuming any corn demand from China, which we think that's coming, but let's be honest, it's China.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: We we we don't know, we can't know to 100%.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: So historically, a 1.3 billion bushel carryout means at least$6 CBOT corn.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: And this morning, December is trading$460.
• 4:02
  SPEAKER_00: So this hot, dry weather going forward is a big, big deal.
• 4:07
  SPEAKER_00: As for the U.S.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: crop ratings, the percent rate of good to excellent was steady yesterday at 67 at 67%.
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: But that can change a lot in coming weeks if this weather forecast holds.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: I remain longer-term bullish CBOT corn for the obvious reasons.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: Moving on to soybeans, um U.S.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: crop condition ratings for soybeans dropped 1.264% rated good to excellent.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Also, China was in bidding for U.S.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: soybeans yesterday, and we believe that they even bought somewhere between eight and ten cargoes of U.S.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: beans.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: We have not heard anything yet on the Chinese government dropping their import tariffs, but as we have reported before, if cyanograin, an arm of the Chinese government, if cyanograin is in buying the beans, tariffs don't apply.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, I'm not really sure that them dropping the tariffs is really that big of a deal.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: As of this morning, September soybean prices at the U.S.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Gulf are 20 cents a bushel cheaper than Brazilian soybeans.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: So U.S.
• 5:11
  SPEAKER_00: soybean export business should be picking up to all destinations, not just China.
• 5:17
  SPEAKER_00: And then this weather forecast has a market all worried about the U.S.
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: soybean yield.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: I still remain in the camp that CBAT soybean rallies are to be sold, but not yet.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: We could see this thing rally for several more weeks yet.
• 5:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um, at the bottom of page one today, I have a chart of ending stocks of U.S.
• 5:42
  SPEAKER_00: corn.
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: It's well worth taking a look at that.
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: And I've got the 1.7 billion bushel uh assumption in there.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: And if we lose 2%, we go to 1.3, so you can see what that looks like.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: Moving on to weather.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: Um, looks like the weather forecast has gotten a little bit wetter uh in the Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky area for the next four or five days.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: And then beyond that, um the central and western Corn Belt uh into the Plain States uh dries out significantly.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: We've got um these this high pressure still remains uh over Colorado, Kansas, and this heat builds up to just something smoking hot uh over the weekend and most of next week.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: Uh you can see I've got temperatures in for Monday and Tuesday, and you can see uh Nebraska, well, really all the way from Kansas to South Dakota, even parts of North Dakota, have day after day after day of up to 100 degrees, and you've got several isolated days where you know whatever particular area, and uh Monday happens to be South Dakota, is well over 105, 106.
• 7:01
  SPEAKER_00: Uh the six to ten day and eight to fourteen day time periods are both uh well above normal temperatures.
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for listening.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: That's it for today.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: We'll be back tomorrow.