Latest / Financial Survival Network / CPI Data Sparks Economic Optimism - Eddy Gifford #6223

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CPI Data Sparks Economic Optimism - Eddy Gifford #6223 · Financial Survival Network

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  Speaker 1: I keep in mind that later that expected cause the
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: market to kind of like rally a little bit, especially
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: as things like bitcoin and then coupled with a maybe
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: more pro cryptocurrency administration. We've kind of seen that at
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: least old although it's not like rocketing yet. But we
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: need to keep in mind that that number, although it
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  Speaker 1: came in lower, was still over three percent. So when
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  Speaker 1: we look at what the Fed keeps telling us, they're
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  Speaker 1: telling us that they want inflation to be at two
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  Speaker 1: percent or less.
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  Speaker 2: You are listening to Carrie Let's's Financial Survival Network, where
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: you get valuable information you just can't find anywhere else
• 0:37
  Speaker 2: to thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial
• 0:41
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  Speaker 2: dot com and get your free newsletter and gift. Financial
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• 0:57
  Speaker 3: And welcome you are listening to and watch the Financial
• 1:01
  Speaker 3: Survival Network. Come your host Carrie Letts. Well, Hey, our
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  Speaker 3: good friend Eddie Gifford is with us to go over
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  Speaker 3: last week's CPI numbers and how they how he sees
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  Speaker 3: them going ahead, as well as let's talk about the
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  Speaker 3: year ahead, because we are in January. Never forget the
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  Speaker 3: January effect. We had two twenty plus percent gains in
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  Speaker 3: the market back to back, something that hasn't happened in
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  Speaker 3: a long long time. Eddie. It's great to have you
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  Speaker 3: back on and the happy New Year a little belated
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  Speaker 3: since we're almost done with January, but we haven't seen
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  Speaker 3: you in a bit.
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  Speaker 1: What of the CPI numbers, Yeah, first of all, thank
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  Speaker 1: you for having me, And yeah, you know, like we
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  Speaker 1: editing the last week wondering like what's going to go
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  Speaker 1: on with CPI and fortunately it came in lighter than expected.
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  Speaker 1: I keep in mind that lighter that expected cause the
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  Speaker 1: market to kind of like rally a little bit, especially
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  Speaker 1: is things like bitcoin, and then coupled with a maybe
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: more pro cryptocurrency administration, we've kind of seen that at
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  Speaker 1: least old although it's not like rocketing yet. But we
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: need to keep in mind that that number, although it
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  Speaker 1: came in lower, was still over three percent. So when
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: we look at what the Fed keeps telling us, they're
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: telling us that they want inflation to be at two
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  Speaker 1: percent or less. And it's funny because I was just
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  Speaker 1: talking to a friend yesterday and he's like, you know,
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  Speaker 1: do you think it's going to come back down. I'm like, no, no, no, no, no,
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  Speaker 1: that's that's not the goal.
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  Speaker 2: Right.
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  Speaker 1: Inflation doesn't come down, it slows down, and it just
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  Speaker 1: continues to stack on top of each other. So we're
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  Speaker 1: still a full percentage point away from getting to the target.
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  Speaker 1: But even when the Fed gets to the target, that
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  Speaker 1: means things are still going to be two percent more
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  Speaker 1: expensive next year than they are this year. And that's
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  Speaker 1: based off their definition of CPI, which a lot of
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  Speaker 1: households would argue that what the numbers say, the big
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  Speaker 1: picture CPI numbers say, compared to what they're actually experiencing
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: at how we do will are much different.
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  Speaker 4: So I think there's a lot of qui optimism.
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  Speaker 1: That seems like there's a lot of catalysts for good
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  Speaker 1: change with the new administration. Of course, we need to
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  Speaker 1: keep in mind that all change usually causes pain before
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  Speaker 1: it causes gain. Right, So I mean I can decide
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  Speaker 1: that I want to be I want to lose twenty
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  Speaker 1: pounds this year as an example, right, and I'll be
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  Speaker 1: healthier next year because of it. But it doesn't mean
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  Speaker 1: that the first that the whole year is not going
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  Speaker 1: to have trials and tribulations, and that there's not going
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  Speaker 1: to be like bad things that happen or that I'm
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  Speaker 1: not going to fall off course every once in a while.
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  Speaker 1: So I think we need to keep in mind that
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  Speaker 1: like this first year of the administration. Although I think
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  Speaker 1: they're going to be pushing for a lot of positive change,
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  Speaker 1: it's kind of like that first month or two of
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  Speaker 1: a diet. It sucks, It comes with some pain, it
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  Speaker 1: comes with some adjustments, it comes with those types of things.
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  Speaker 1: So I think that we're in store for volatility. I
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  Speaker 1: think that CPI numbers seem to be working to our advantage,
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  Speaker 1: but inflation is running away in Japan right now, which
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  Speaker 1: the bake of Japan is getting concerned, and the thought
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  Speaker 1: is they may raise interest rates this week. They're having
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  Speaker 1: their version of their FED meeting this week. And the
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  Speaker 1: last time that we saw a rate high from Japan,
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  Speaker 1: we saw a massive callback in the soccer market. This
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  Speaker 1: was last year in August, and so I don't know
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  Speaker 1: if there's going to be a catalyst there again, but
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  Speaker 1: I do think it bears like paying attention to because
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  Speaker 1: you don't unwind fifteen years of easy policy in three days.
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  Speaker 1: So we are in for an interesting year for sure.
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  Speaker 3: So do you think we'll have a pullback though, Yeah,
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  Speaker 3: well there's eleven months left. Well, we'll definitely have at
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  Speaker 3: least a ten percent, but twenty percent or more, I
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  Speaker 3: don't know.
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  Speaker 1: I think something needs to break for that to happen.
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  Speaker 1: We already had one of the worst Decembers we've ever had. Yeah,
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  Speaker 1: I mean, Santa Claus did not decide to show up
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  Speaker 1: this year, you know, the tailing to the.
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  Speaker 4: Sala Claus rally.
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  Speaker 1: We had, like the last two days of it were positive,
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  Speaker 1: but December in general was not good. So we kind
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  Speaker 1: of had like an election hangover in December. And you know, everyone,
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  Speaker 1: now that Trump is officially in, it seems like we're
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  Speaker 1: kind of like catching up to where we were. But
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  Speaker 1: there are you know, a number of things that could happen.
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  Speaker 4: We've talked.
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  Speaker 1: We've been talking to Terry, You and I've been talking
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  Speaker 1: about cracks under the surface for the last year or so.
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  Speaker 1: If any one of those cracks turns into a break,
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  Speaker 1: doesn't matter who you are or how good of a
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: job you're doing. When the market starts building that acceleration
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  Speaker 1: to the downside, there's it's like a freight train, like
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  Speaker 1: you don't stop it and especially given that Yalen just
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: told us we got to take extraordinary measures because we're
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: right at the dead ceiling again. So there's a number
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  Speaker 1: of things. I think we're definitely due for some volatility.
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  Speaker 1: I think that we could easily see a ten percent pullback,
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  Speaker 1: maybe in the fifteen range. And if something breaks unfortunately
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  Speaker 1: see like that twenty five thirty thirty five, just because
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  Speaker 1: of the leverage in the system, it can go real
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  Speaker 1: fast when when something like that starts to speed up
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  Speaker 1: because you just can't get out fast enough in that scenario.
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  Speaker 3: Yeah, so we could see a snap. But you know,
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  Speaker 3: it's questionable whether the economy has been in a recession
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  Speaker 3: all this time, because remember a couple of years ago,
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  Speaker 3: they decided to redefine the definition of a recession, right.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, And that's something to kind of keep in mind,
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  Speaker 1: is that, Well, maybe like twenty twenty two was you know,
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  Speaker 1: a big version of that recession, and twenty twenty three,
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty four was kind of recovering from that recession,
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  Speaker 1: and maybe now we're at a point where, hey.
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  Speaker 4: We can be off to the races again.
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  Speaker 1: So it is interesting when you change the definitions of
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  Speaker 1: things because perception is reality. And if investors believe that
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  Speaker 1: things are going to be good, and if people believe.
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  Speaker 4: That the economy is going to be good, and they
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  Speaker 4: believe that.
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  Speaker 1: Like things are better than they were a year ago,
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  Speaker 1: then the optimism will work it's way into the consumer markets,
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  Speaker 1: it'll work its way into the the you know, the
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  Speaker 1: stock market, and we could see things continue to go that. Obviously,
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  Speaker 1: my biggest fear in general is just that we have
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  Speaker 1: like these extreme elevated valuations on all these stocks. But
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: you know, my cycles guys say says that, well, that's
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  Speaker 1: just because we've had such an advancement, like a technology
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  Speaker 1: revolution all that different the industrial revolution, and stocks are
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  Speaker 1: just going to run out higher multiples now.
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  Speaker 4: Because of that.
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  Speaker 1: So we'll see, you know, it's it's never it's always
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  Speaker 1: different this time until it isn't. So we're treading we're
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  Speaker 1: definitely or we're definitely approaching the year like it's going
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  Speaker 1: to be a good year.
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  Speaker 4: Right.
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  Speaker 1: We have the way that we're positioned, you know, it's
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  Speaker 1: it's a more aggressive allocation in general, but we do
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  Speaker 1: have our triggers in place just in case some different
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  Speaker 1: and things crack or break. Where the goal is to
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  Speaker 1: ride the wave and avoid the catastrophe. That's that's that's
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  Speaker 1: kind of what I always tell the clients.
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  Speaker 3: So he signed close to I think, two hundred executive
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  Speaker 3: orders this first day. And you know what that tells me,
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  Speaker 3: Like the guy's known who's going to win for months
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  Speaker 3: here because this didn't just happen. I mean there's you know,
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  Speaker 3: for one executive order, there's a tremendous amount of work
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  Speaker 3: that goes into it. Even if they had something better
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  Speaker 3: than chat GPT, they couldn't just draft these orders.
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  Speaker 4: And yet they weren't ready to go.
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  Speaker 3: So in a way, this is the most prepared administration
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  Speaker 3: we've ever seen, other than somebody that just wins their
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  Speaker 3: second term consecutively, just keeps the show going.
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, and when I when it comes to like the
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  Speaker 1: administration itself, I think it is safe to say it's
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  Speaker 1: different this time. You know, Trump learned a lot. He's
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  Speaker 1: he's a very competitive person. He didn't become a successful
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  Speaker 1: business owner by not being competitive and not finding ways
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  Speaker 1: to win and overcome adversity. And so I mean, talk
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  Speaker 1: about the adversity this guy's been through. He you know,
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  Speaker 1: went through an administration where everyone was just trying to appeach
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  Speaker 1: him the whole time, and then he had, you know,
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  Speaker 1: an election that he did not agree with.
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  Speaker 4: I will just call it that. You know, he had
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  Speaker 4: COVID that.
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  Speaker 1: He had to deal with, and then he had to
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  Speaker 1: try to battle his way back through indictments and all
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  Speaker 1: these different things to try to even get on the
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  Speaker 1: docket ache and then he ends up winning the popular
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  Speaker 1: vote and the electoral vote and with the story that
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: everyone wants to hear. And the one thing that I
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: can say about Trump's last administration is he tried to
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  Speaker 1: do everything that he said he was going to. And
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: he still has that character where he's going to try
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  Speaker 1: to implement everything that he said he was going to.
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  Speaker 1: But this time he knows the rules. This time, he
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: knows the game. This time he has a much better
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: understanding of who's an enemy, who's an adversary, and who's
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: in his alliance. Right, he has a much better idea
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: of all those types of things. So if you know
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: the game plan ahead of time, and you're someone like
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady, you're gonna go out there when that football game.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: And I think he could make the same argument for
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: someone like Donald Trump. He knows the game, he knows
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: the game plan, he knows how everything works now, and
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: this time he got to pick his team. You know,
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: last time the coaches were picking his team, and and
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: and and he knows better this time around. So for
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: all those reasons, I think that you're right, Like he's
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: totally you know, probably one of the most prepared ever
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  Speaker 1: as well as the administration in general, and so everything
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  Speaker 1: that I'm worried about, right, because you got to have
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: a wall of worry to make new market higher than
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: any ways, it's hard to think that they haven't already
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  Speaker 1: thought of all those things and already have a plan
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  Speaker 1: of action for that stuff. So again, like that's why
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  Speaker 1: we are like, uh more aggressive and more risk on
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  Speaker 1: uh for this year, and then well we always have
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  Speaker 1: our tris in place just in case, right, But the
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  Speaker 1: I agree with you.
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  Speaker 4: I think that, uh, this guy is ready.
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  Speaker 1: And he's ready for whatever, and he's ready for worst
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  Speaker 1: case scenario like this, Like he knows that there's been
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  Speaker 1: an assassination and tept on him. He knows that those
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  Speaker 1: things are going to come, and he's coming out fighting anyway.
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  Speaker 1: So I think it really speaks to Okay, we finally
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  Speaker 1: have like that leader in the United States where you
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  Speaker 1: can say like okay, like.
• 11:28
  Speaker 4: Yeah, I can, I can. I can respect this guy.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: You know, not everyone to will agree with him, but
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  Speaker 1: it's hard not to respect him for what he's done
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  Speaker 1: and what he's over common where he's at now.
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  Speaker 4: Absolutely all right.
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  Speaker 3: So if there's one piece of advice to give it
• 11:42
  Speaker 3: investors for the calming year, what is it, Eddy.
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  Speaker 1: I would say, there's two pieces of advice, because we've
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: got to think of this and and two from two
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: different perspectives. Number One, Okay, stick to your plan, keep
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: keep buying, keep leaning into your equities, and make sure
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: that you have some type of exit in place to
• 12:01
  Speaker 1: protect you if something breaks. And on the same time,
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: get rid of that consumer debt. You know, like we
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: have a ton of people that are probably listening to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: us right now, and a ton of people all over
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: the country where they have these like crazy credit cards
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: with like twenty five, twenty six, twenty nine percent interest.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: You don't need to worry about investing in the stock
• 12:24
  Speaker 1: market if you can pay off that debt that's you're
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: paying twenty nine percent on. That's a guaranteed tax free
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: ery return a twenty nine percent on your money.
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  Speaker 4: So get rid of that. If you can get rid
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: of that.
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  Speaker 1: It's going to make your life a lot less stressful
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: and it's going to make you be willing to take
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: more risk on the other side with your investment.
• 12:41
  Speaker 4: So take care of both sides.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Get rid of the debt like and start building your
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: net worth and think like an investor. You need to
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: think of yourself as being successful in ten to fifteen years,
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: and you can't do that if assets aren't working for
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: you exactly.
• 12:56
  Speaker 3: Hey, Eddie, just tell us where we find you, how
• 12:58
  Speaker 3: we connect with you on the web.
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: Yeah, easiest thing to do to activewealth dot com slash
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: Eddie Dash Gifford, or just go to that good old
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: search engine called Google type and Eddie Gifford. That's Eddie
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: with a Y G I F f r D and
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: you'll be able to, you know, see my ex page
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and my LinkedIn and.
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  Speaker 4: All that other stuff.
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  Speaker 1: So look forward to talking with you. If you have
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: any questions about anything, excellent, I've.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Got a question for Eddie myself, to shoot me an
• 13:24
  Speaker 3: email kl at Carrie Leeds dot com. The link to
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: his site is in the show notes of this interview
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: on Financial Survival Network dot com. And if you go there,
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: we just asked that you sign up for your free
• 13:36
  Speaker 3: complimentary newsletter, like over sixty five thousand other FSN members
• 13:42
  Speaker 3: have over the years. Eddie appreciate you coming on and
• 13:45
  Speaker 3: we'll talk to you again.
• 13:46
  Speaker 4: So yeah, thank you for having me, Kerry.
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to Carrie Lets. This Financial Survival Network
• 13:52
  Speaker 2: your solution to today's trying times. For the latest, go
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: to Financial Survival Network dot com. Financial Survival Network now
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: more than ever,