Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Super Tuesdays - Trump Lashes Out As Midterms Loom & He Loses Control

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Super Tuesdays - Trump Lashes Out As Midterms Loom & He Loses Control · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: We are six weeks out from this election. Six weeks,
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: 42 days. That's Chuck Todd. I'm Chris Lizzie. You're watching
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Super Tuesdays.
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: We are six weeks out. Are we going to call
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: it Extreme Tuesdays? Supreme Tuesdays? What are we going to like,
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: you know? Extreme Super Tuesdays. Yeah, Extreme Super Tuesdays because
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: we're going to use super intelligence and extreme intelligence. Extreme
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: Super Tuesdays. Yeah, welcome to Extreme Super Tuesdays.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: Whatever you call it, just go and like, subscribe, and
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: share it on your favorite podcast app.
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: All right, so Chuck.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: I know you were taught the same thing I was,
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: which is the most important thing about news is the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: first three letters, N-E-W.
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: I will admit I am.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: Slightly divided. I'm leading off with Donald Trump's latest provocation
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: of the mainstream media. Late Friday night, he announces he
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: is banning CNN, MSNOW. and politico from the white house
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: grounds over the weekend they revoked the press passes monday
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: morning uh those three organizations announced they're suing and the
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: tv press pool announces they will not cover donald trump
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: now i want to explain i want us to explain
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: that to people why that matters um why don't we
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: do that first explain to people because you've been in
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: it explain to people how that works and why that
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: matters and then then let's go bigger.
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: So look, the reason we have a TV pool is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: that in the late 70s, early 80s, it literally became absurd,
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  Speaker 2: even with the three network era. And then the introduction
• 1:44
  Speaker 2: of CNN, really sort of this fourth camera, you throw
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: in a PBS every now and then. And nobody wanted
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: five camera crews in the Oval Office talking with the
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: president and all this stuff. So it was really during
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: as the television era kicked in. The networks, the bureau
• 1:59
  Speaker 2: chiefs of what were the four bureau chiefs at the time,
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: now five, sort of the five, you know, everybody. Five families, right?
• 2:06
  Speaker 2: I know. Everybody loves their mob talk. The five families
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  Speaker 2: in this case, NBC, ABC, CBS, Fox, and CNN. Yep.
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: And they have been the pool basically since Fox showed
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: up in the late 90s. And you've basically had this
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: arrangement for the last 30 years. And what it is
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: is that literally every day a different network is in
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  Speaker 2: charge with doing– with covering the president wherever– whenever he
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  Speaker 2: wants to talk to the press. They're the– so each
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  Speaker 2: day one network is the representative. So you're not there
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: if I– when I would be on pool duty– and
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  Speaker 2: a lot of times networks don't want their correspondents on
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  Speaker 2: pool duty because you cannot be from the network– If
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: you're in you kind of work for all the networks,
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: you work for like right. You work for the entire entity.
• 2:59
  Speaker 2: And oh, by the way, who pays for this? The
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: five networks do. The government doesn't subsidize this. There's nothing.
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  Speaker 2: So long story short, why is the TV pool refusing
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: to cover Trump? Because they just CNN pays one fifth.
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: of this, of this. And if they're not there, guess
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: who's doesn't want to cover anybody else's. Right. All right.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, not to say that they're, I'd
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: like to think they're doing it for high brow reasons too,
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: but there's also a financial consideration as well. It just,
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: you pay, you know, you split the travel costs, you
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: split all, you split all of that. And it's, you know,
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: they charge air force one, you get charged first-class airfare
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: for all of, for everybody that gets, gets a seat.
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: You've got to reimburse the government first class tariff. So
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: that's that may be the technical reason, but there should
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: hopefully be. Yeah, I think it's a combination. It's what happened.
• 3:51
  Speaker 2: It's why those of us stood up when Obama's administration
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  Speaker 2: tried to keep Fox out of a of a pool situation,
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  Speaker 2: which a lot of people are bringing back up because
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: it was people like myself that screamed the loudest. And
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  Speaker 2: and the bureau chiefs basically stood their ground. The Obama
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  Speaker 2: White House relented and everybody, all five members of the pool,
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: including Fox, got access to these Treasury officials. And then,
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  Speaker 2: you know, so like I said, I'm not going to
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  Speaker 2: hold my breath. I'd like I'm what I've noticed with
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  Speaker 2: Fox over the years is they will do the minimum
• 4:25
  Speaker 2: to stick by the partnerships in the Trump era. But
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: they're not going to ever, you know, Brett Baer is
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: not going to put himself out there and. And he
• 4:35
  Speaker 2: might argue, I'm not gonna make myself a target for
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  Speaker 2: Trump to stand up for First Amendment rights. It's like, okay,
• 4:40
  Speaker 2: that's a decision you're gonna make. That's a choice. Now,
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  Speaker 2: do I think that Trump would make his life miserable?
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  Speaker 2: I do. Again, it's a choice. It depends on what
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  Speaker 2: kind of principles you have. How much are you doing
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  Speaker 2: this for fame and fortune? And how much are you
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  Speaker 2: doing this for the principle of making sure the public's
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  Speaker 2: informed and constitutional rights are preserved? And so, you know,
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  Speaker 2: I I'd like to I'm you know, I'm not going
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  Speaker 2: to sit here and and criticize yet. I want to
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  Speaker 2: I want to see opportunities and trust. That's right. I
• 5:15
  Speaker 2: want to see see what Fox does, see what CBS
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  Speaker 2: does and see them, you know, stand by basic principles here.
• 5:22
  Speaker 2: Because if you again, the reason why I fought this
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: back when the Obama White House tried it was, you know,
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  Speaker 2: I was for the exact reason that. You fight it
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: now if you're Fox, which is there but for the
• 5:35
  Speaker 2: grace of- 100%. Goes to the next person. And whatever
• 5:38
  Speaker 2: precedent gets set, I promise you the next president will
• 5:42
  Speaker 2: accept that precedent. They don't get rid of them. It's
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: never happened. It never does. I've yet to see an
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  Speaker 2: executive branch go essentially give back. give access back once
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  Speaker 2: they've taken it away. Very unlikely. It just doesn't happen.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Unless under massive pressure, which given the news of every day,
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: they're usually not.
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  Speaker 2: But you're getting at another issue here, and I don't disagree,
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: which is how to cover this story in the middle
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: of a campaign. Because we know why Trump is doing it.
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: Trump is doing it because he's flailing. Trump is doing
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: it because his party is hurting. I've said animal backed
• 6:20
  Speaker 2: into corner, basically. It's exactly right. So he is trying desperately.
• 6:26
  Speaker 2: This is the caravans are coming portion of the campaign,
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: which is he wants a culture war fight. He only
• 6:34
  Speaker 2: knows one gear to engage his base. So he's trying everything.
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: So right now it's let me let me pick a
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  Speaker 2: fight with And by the way, MSNOW doesn't have the
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  Speaker 2: same teeth that MSNBC had.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: I know.
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  Speaker 2: So he kind of probably missed that. He threw it in.
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  Speaker 1: Formerly known as MSDNC, he just.
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: Threw it in. Yeah, it bothers him that he doesn't
• 6:54
  Speaker 2: have that cudgel anymore. He's gotten the other major networks
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: to kind of acquiesce to some of his stuff so
• 7:02
  Speaker 2: he doesn't push back as hard. With CNN now, because
• 7:06
  Speaker 2: of the whole Paramount, he just wants to keep pressure
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: on Paramount to try to make changes to CNN, clearly.
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  Speaker 2: But the point being is what's why is he doing
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  Speaker 2: this now? And that to me is how you should
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: cover this story. Absolutely. And I and, you know, it's
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: I've had people say, well, the press should just stop covering. No,
• 7:24
  Speaker 2: that is not the job. The job is to look.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: You're not going to you're not going to reward him
• 7:30
  Speaker 2: for what he did. but you still got to do
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: your job for the American public. So you balance that
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: a little bit. And at the end of the day-
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  Speaker 2: He remains the most powerful and influential person in the world,
• 7:39
  Speaker 2: whether you like what he does or not. And at
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  Speaker 2: the end of the day, you report this for what
• 7:44
  Speaker 2: it is. He's struggling. Everything is going against him. He's
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: losing court fights. He's now got Republicans running away from him.
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  Speaker 2: He is toxic in this midterm election cycle. He knows it,
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  Speaker 2: which is why he's gonna lash out. And this is
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  Speaker 2: the beginning of what could be a long lame duck
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  Speaker 2: period for him. And look, I think that, it's funny,
• 8:11
  Speaker 2: Lame duck, declaring a president a lame duck is kind
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: of like declaring a recession. You know it after the fact.
• 8:17
  Speaker 2: You don't always know it in the moment you're in.
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: You don't know the recession has started, then you'll look backwards. Oh,
• 8:22
  Speaker 2: the recession started there. His lame duck status, I think
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: it began basically when he launched the Iran war. You'll
• 8:32
  Speaker 2: look back and say that's when he lost the plot
• 8:36
  Speaker 2: of his presidency and he never was able to recover.
• 8:39
  Speaker 2: that's probably the line I'll draw, but we don't know
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: that yet. But the point being is if this is
• 8:46
  Speaker 2: how I was responding to what could happen, imagine what
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  Speaker 2: the different ways he's going to continue to flail and
• 8:54
  Speaker 2: continue to try to, when you're, when you've got the, whatever.
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  Speaker 2: And I went through this on my podcast. Look, whatever
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: personality disorder he has, I'm not going to sit here
• 9:03
  Speaker 2: and diagnose him. Yeah, we're not psychiatrists. There's clearly something
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  Speaker 2: wrong with him.
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  Speaker 1: In the same way I'm not a doctor.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: When people say, he looks bad, I don't know what
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  Speaker 2: to tell you. Bottom line, though, is we do know this.
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  Speaker 2: When he loses control in other parts, you grasp, when
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  Speaker 2: you have people that are this fragile, and he's clearly
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: a fragile specimen, his fragile ego, he's going to grab
• 9:26
  Speaker 2: stuff he can control. So He can control what media
• 9:30
  Speaker 2: he thinks he can at least can come into the
• 9:32
  Speaker 2: Oval Office. And he can control the Kennedy Center because
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: the president is technically the chairman of that board and
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: he took advantage of that. And he thinks he could
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: control anything he wants with the military being commander in chief.
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: So make the arch a weapons depot. It to me
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  Speaker 2: is a reminder of how weak he knows he is
• 9:54
  Speaker 2: at the moment. And it's his way, If you're looking
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: for observations, you want to know how accurate the polls are,
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  Speaker 2: his behavior is proof that the polls are pretty accurate
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: at the moment.
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  Speaker 1: The control thing I think is really, really important, right?
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  Speaker 1: I actually think he's not dissimilar from a lot of
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: people where when a lot of things feel out of
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: control and out of your control, your natural tendency is
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: to exert more control.
• 10:22
  Speaker 2: Over what you can't. A smart thing to do is
• 10:30
  Speaker 2: just take a step back and just handle what you
• 10:33
  Speaker 2: can handle. We tell our kids all the time.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: Control the controllables.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: Tell the kids that.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: All the time.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: Worry about that. So this is a correct way to
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: behave in theory, not the way he goes about it.
• 10:48
  Speaker 2: But he's got lots of issues. Do you think....
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Does this get worse... in the next 42 days. And
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: by this, I mean, Trump and kind of his lashing out.
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: When you were talking, it reminded me of one of
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: my favorite scenes in Spinal Tap where Fran Drescher is
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: like the PR person. And she's like, you have a
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: woman on all fours with a glove being shoved in
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: her face. And the manager's like, well, you should have
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: seen what they wanted to put on the cover.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: It wasn't a glove. I'll tell you that. And like,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I wonder about.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: That with Trump is like, well, Because clearly, look, you
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: do not have to have a psychology degree to see
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: this is lashing out. He knows deep down this is
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: not going to happen.
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: And by the way, we also know this with older relatives.
• 11:35
  Speaker 2: Anybody that's an older relative, the older you get, the
• 11:37
  Speaker 2: more your filters wear away and you revert to sort
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: of your comfort zone. mindsets as best as you can.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: Who you are, core, core, right? Like, that's what comes out.
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: That's where I wonder, like, is this the first of
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: a series of kind of wild pronouncements? I mean, I
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: don't know, but I don't think it certainly isn't a
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: bad guess based on his previous behavior.
• 12:02
  Speaker 2: I'm just, look, we don't know if there's a full
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Democratic control of Congress. And there's, look, there's plenty of
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: questions I have about that on the Senate side. We
• 12:11
  Speaker 2: know that this money advantage is monstrous at the moment.
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: But certainly, boy, all of the intangibles are going against
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: the Republicans at the moment. How he handles losing full
• 12:27
  Speaker 2: control of Congress versus losing just the House is too different.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: And that's the thing. I mean, I think that the
• 12:34
  Speaker 2: economists did a piece on this, which means it was
• 12:36
  Speaker 2: our friend's Probably our friend James Bennett wrote it.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: I was going to say James Bennett.
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: Totally. But it's always unbiased. Unsigned.
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: But James Bennett is like the DC– used to be
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: at the New York Times, DC guy for The Economist.
• 12:47
  Speaker 2: But he had an editorial in The Economist a couple
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: of weeks ago or The Economist did. Like I said,
• 12:53
  Speaker 2: we assume it was– Yeah, we don't know. We assume
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: it's James. That, hey, this is only going to get
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: worse basically. And that when he's feeling cornered and isolated
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: and as he loses– as the public turns on him. Um,
• 13:08
  Speaker 2: and it grows and they sort of, you know, there's
• 13:11
  Speaker 2: this exhaustion from Trump. Like, I mean, I, I have,
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: I have versions of these conversations. Yeah. You know, I
• 13:17
  Speaker 2: voted for him. I'm just sort of tired of it.
• 13:20
  Speaker 2: I'm done with it type of mindset. It's just sort
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: of like, and I think this, you know, looks to
• 13:25
  Speaker 2: me like this press rant is being met with an
• 13:30
  Speaker 2: eye roll, not with some sort of like, I don't
• 13:33
  Speaker 2: see his right-wing culture war uh, warriors jumping on this
• 13:38
  Speaker 2: one and going, let's go. And, and I think it
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: tells you his shtick is, you know, this is me
• 13:44
  Speaker 2: and I've used this before. And at some point in
• 13:47
  Speaker 2: somebody could rightfully put together a meme of how often
• 13:50
  Speaker 2: I've said this because it, but at some point, the
• 13:53
  Speaker 2: Gary Busey years, the Gary Busey period of the Trump
• 13:56
  Speaker 2: presidency is going to begin. And we may be finally
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: at the Gary Busey portion of the presidency.
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: This is my whole thing about where we started, about
• 14:05
  Speaker 1: just being divided about how to cover it.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: It's like, yes, I understand that.
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not sure this is the reason he lashed out
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: at the media, but I get that in theory, you
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: could look at this and be like, oh, he's trying
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: to motivate an unmotivated base. But I did wonder, Chuck,
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: it's like, how many times are we going to go
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: to this well?
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: How many times are we going to debate, you know,
• 14:26
  Speaker 2: like does the whole fake news banning them thing work
• 14:31
  Speaker 2: like it did eight years ago? Is any elected Republican going, yeah,
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: this is a great idea? Have you noticed? Certainly. I mean,
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: it's not like they're not rushing to his defense. Certainly.
• 14:41
  Speaker 2: It is, you know, this stuff, the Kennedy Center, the Arch.
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: the East Wing, the news media tax. This is where
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: when Diesel's near $ 7, the guy's like, buddy, what are
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: you focused on? And that's ultimately, you're like, he has
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: spent the last two weeks focused on anything other than
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: where the issues that the public cares about. Boy, if
• 15:09
  Speaker 2: you look at that NBC News poll, and they did
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: these great message tests, and I did a bunch of this.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: I love that. I wanted to bring that up with you.
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: So NBC, let me just quickly, NBC has a new poll.
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: Trump is at the lowest approval he's been in his
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: second term, 41%. I think he's disapproved there is 56%.
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: And the other number that just jumped out at me
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: that I remember, and I know you'll remember more, is 55%
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: of people said his economic policies had made things worse.
• 15:36
  Speaker 2: And that was out Monday. But my favorite thing was
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: they did these message tests. They're going to read you
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: some information. Different candidates running for office may be saying,
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: is this going to make them more likely or less likely?
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: Let me give you the three worst things you could
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: be for. OK, the three worst things you could be for.
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: And then I'm going to and then ask yourself, is
• 15:58
  Speaker 2: this the Donald Trump agenda? Yeah. The worst thing you
• 16:01
  Speaker 2: can be for. is supporting building a data center in
• 16:04
  Speaker 2: your community. 64% of those surveyed said less likely. After that,
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: the worst thing you could be for is a candidate
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: who supports the Iran war, all right, at 57% less likely.
• 16:16
  Speaker 2: And after that, a candidate who supports providing funding and
• 16:18
  Speaker 2: weapons to Israel at 55%. What has Donald Trump advocated
• 16:23
  Speaker 2: in the last week? He agreed to a new weapons
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: deal to Israel, told everybody that mentioned about data centers,
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: that it's all a hoax and that they're backwards. Don't
• 16:32
  Speaker 2: be stupid. Don't be stupid and they're backwards looking. And
• 16:34
  Speaker 2: I'm thinking about expanding the Iran war. Like if you
• 16:38
  Speaker 2: could like forget everything else, the three worst things you
• 16:42
  Speaker 2: could be advocating on the campaign trail are the three
• 16:45
  Speaker 2: things Donald Trump went out of his way to amplify
• 16:49
  Speaker 2: in the last 10 days. That's how much of a
• 16:52
  Speaker 2: problem he is for his entire party at the moment.
• 16:55
  Speaker 2: And I think it was that poll, but I'm not
• 16:57
  Speaker 2: entirely sure.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: I was stunned by this, that even the I'll pay– which,
• 17:01
  Speaker 1: by the way, okay, just to say again, this is
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: not going to happen, but the I'll pay you $ 5, 000,
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: I'll pay every American $ 5, 000.
• 17:07
  Speaker 2: That was also unpopular. That's also not popular. It wasn't
• 17:10
  Speaker 2: one of the three worst, most unpopular, but it was
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: also upside down.
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: Giving free money to people you would think would be
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: more popular. Well, I want to pull this up, Chuck,
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: because I'm sure you saw this, but I did– Look,
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: I think you and I have talked a number of
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: times about Iowa, right? Broadly is what's going on there.
• 17:28
  Speaker 1: Governors race, Senate race, three house races.
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: Just to give a little insider, I literally wrapped up
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: an interview with Tom Vilsack for an hour. Democratic governor. Yep. Frankly,
• 17:39
  Speaker 2: we spent half the time understanding the cattle industry more
• 17:42
  Speaker 2: and the ag and what's going on with our ag economy,
• 17:44
  Speaker 2: which is to me, one of the reasons why Trump's
• 17:49
  Speaker 2: Republican Party is so vulnerable in the middle of the country. Yep.
• 17:52
  Speaker 2: And then we talked about an Iowa blue wave and
• 17:55
  Speaker 2: what would constitute it. And let's just say he was
• 17:57
  Speaker 2: he's he's a bit more sober than some of my
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: Democratic friends. Interesting.
• 18:01
  Speaker 1: So I just last week there was a war powers
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: resolution vote. Seven Republicans joined with 213 Democrats.
• 18:11
  Speaker 2: Two of the new entries.
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: Were Zach Nunn and Marionette Miller Meeks, two Republicans who
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: voted for the war powers resolution that basically the Trump administration.
• 18:20
  Speaker 2: Should come and explain what's going on in Iran. Interesting.
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: And I sort of filed that away. Then on Monday,
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: I saw this from a candidate we've talked a lot about.
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: This is Ashley Hinson, the Republican nominee for Senate. I'm
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: just going to read the first paragraph. Iowans are being
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: squeezed and shouldn't have to foot the bill at the
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran.
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: We need to use every option at our disposal to
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: provide some relief from high prices. She then goes through
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: a bunch of things, suspend the gas tax, pause diesel exports, et.
• 18:50
  Speaker 2: Cetera, et cetera. Well, this is what Grassley asked for
• 18:51
  Speaker 2: over the weekend, too. I mean, she's following Grassley's lead
• 18:54
  Speaker 2: on this. And Turek already also came out for this
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: before anybody, by the way.
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: You couple that with the two, Marionette Miller-Meeks and Sackman,
• 19:06
  Speaker 1: two vulnerable Republicans in Iowa, with Maria Salazar in your
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: home state of Florida coming out and saying Donald Trump's
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: policies on deportation are hurting us among Hispanics. And you
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: said earlier, Trump knows he's losing the public. I also
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: wonder if there's some of this latest, you know, the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: war on the media thing, part, you know, infinity.
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: Sure, because it's blaming the media for giving people.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: He's losing Republicans, too, which has always been the thing
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: that they've always stayed in line.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Republican elected officials, I should say. Right. Well, I mean,
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: that's the other part of welcome to lame duck status
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: is when Republicans discover, oh, right, you're never going to
• 19:45
  Speaker 2: be on the ballot again. And, you know, you're just
• 19:49
  Speaker 2: now at this point. you're an anvil and you're never
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: going to be an asset. So why do I have
• 19:53
  Speaker 2: to worry about it? Because guess what? Two years from now,
• 19:55
  Speaker 2: I'm going to be dealing with somebody else at the
• 19:57
  Speaker 2: top of the ticket, not you. And so I don't
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: have to worry about things that I used to have
• 20:03
  Speaker 2: to worry about. Maybe he becomes, you know, a jerk
• 20:07
  Speaker 2: and primaries and tries to engage in primaries in 28
• 20:11
  Speaker 2: i doubt it i think by then he's going to
• 20:13
  Speaker 2: be 82 and even more cranky and and.
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: Probably even more focused on building this thing or.
• 20:19
  Speaker 2: That thing with his name on it yeah i mean
• 20:21
  Speaker 2: right because my guess is if there's a democratic congress
• 20:24
  Speaker 2: he only turns his attention to that stuff yeah.
• 20:27
  Speaker 1: Because he can control it i mean to some extent
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: there's obviously but can you control it more.
• 20:42
  Speaker 2: But, you know, it's interesting what Marianne Miller makes and
• 20:45
  Speaker 2: Zach Nunn. It's an interesting position they put themselves in
• 20:49
  Speaker 2: because if you're running against them, you'd be like, well,
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: why'd you do it now? Where were you six months ago?
• 20:56
  Speaker 2: Where were you six weeks ago? Where were you for?
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: Are you only doing it now because you got a pullback?
• 21:01
  Speaker 1: Correct.
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: Because it's politically expedient. Now, that said, again, I go
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: back to I hear a lot of people sort of
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: hiding behind prognostications by saying, well, if you can believe
• 21:12
  Speaker 2: the polls. Again, I always look at behavior. And sometimes
• 21:17
  Speaker 2: you don't have to. I don't need a poll to
• 21:19
  Speaker 2: know that Zach Nunn's in trouble. I just have to
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: watch his behavior. I don't need a poll to know
• 21:24
  Speaker 2: that Ashley Hinson doesn't think this race is in the bag.
• 21:27
  Speaker 2: I just have to see behavior. You don't always have to.
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: You don't need a crappy poll from Insider Advantage, who
• 21:35
  Speaker 2: I thought had been I thought was making up polls
• 21:39
  Speaker 2: about a couple of decades ago and had gotten outed
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: for that. I'm surprised how many people still cite their material.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: I throw them away. I don't cite them at all.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: People love to cite any number that they can pass
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: up as scientific that supports their view.
• 21:52
  Speaker 2: I don't know if this person had used back in
• 21:54
  Speaker 2: the day. Now, maybe the brain was bought by somebody else.
• 21:56
  Speaker 2: It may have changed hands, right. But I remember- Like
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: Rasmussen Research is different now. I remember that when it
• 22:01
  Speaker 2: first came out, there was- It was pretty clear they
• 22:05
  Speaker 2: were making up numbers and they didn't have any proof
• 22:07
  Speaker 2: that they were doing stuff. So I have always discounted.
• 22:10
  Speaker 2: What I have noticed about insider advantage is it always
• 22:13
  Speaker 2: seems to be one point better than whatever the real
• 22:16
  Speaker 2: clear politics average is, but they just fall in line.
• 22:19
  Speaker 2: Just one. Yeah. And then, of course, a little pro tip.
• 22:23
  Speaker 2: If somebody is reporting a decibel point, they're bullshitting you.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: Anytime the 10th decimal point, 50.3%, I'm always like, this
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: is bullshit.
• 22:32
  Speaker 2: Exactly. If you're putting a decimal point, you're making shit up.
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: It's faux. It's faux. It's the appearance, the attempted appearance
• 22:40
  Speaker 2: of accuracy. Correct. And of rigor. It has an error rate.
• 22:45
  Speaker 2: We can't have a decimal point with error rates. It
• 22:47
  Speaker 2: has a six-point error rate, so you can't be 0.2. Chuck,
• 22:50
  Speaker 2: I want to.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: I want to step back slightly.
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: I just wrote down a bunch of things that happened
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: in the last week-ish. Federal Reserve, Donald Trump's chosen person
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: at the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, raises interest
• 23:07
  Speaker 1: rates by a quarter.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: Of a percent.
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: The Ashley Hinson tweet we just went over. Maria Salazar
• 23:13
  Speaker 1: in Florida on immigration. The War Powers vote.
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: Diesel is now $ 6.
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: 50 a gallon, which is the highest it has ever been.
• 23:22
  Speaker 2: And for people who don't know, a lot of farm
• 23:24
  Speaker 2: equipment runs on diesel. And by the way, a lot
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: of trucks run on diesel. By the way, this is
• 23:29
  Speaker 2: like a reverse, this is like a straight line up.
• 23:32
  Speaker 2: This is not some gradual hike. This is going to
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: get worse quickly.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: And gas is now $ 4. 47 a gallon. And people who
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: know a Saudi Arabia pipeline was struck last week. Very
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: possible that it's offline for several weeks. So people who
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: are following this stuff, like the guy at GasBuddy who's
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: writing about this all the time, is saying gas is
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: going to go higher. I put all of that in, Chuck,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: to say, why are we not– maybe you are, but–
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: If you told me all of those things and you
• 24:08
  Speaker 1: told me that Trump is at his highest disapproval in
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: the polling averages that we've seen in NBC, he's at
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: his lowest approval. I would say, well, I mean, this
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: is going to be an absolute tsunami. Like, are we
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: underestimating the Democratic, the pro-Democrat environment?
• 24:29
  Speaker 2: Yes, and we should. And let me tell you why
• 24:30
  Speaker 2: you always should. Okay. Because tsunamis are essentially– when you
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: get these sort of routes, okay, it is always bigger
• 24:40
  Speaker 2: than the prognosticators thing because stuff, you know, it's suddenly
• 24:45
  Speaker 2: when the bottom falls out, the bottom falls out. But
• 24:47
  Speaker 2: the fact of the matter is the bottom 10% of the,
• 24:51
  Speaker 2: it's only about 10% or less of the time in
• 24:53
  Speaker 2: midterms like this does the bottom fall out. It doesn't
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: happen very often. 1974, it happened. 1994, it happened. You know,
• 25:00
  Speaker 2: we can name them. Like it's not many. Yeah. 2010
• 25:06
  Speaker 2: more so than either 14 or six, believe it or not.
• 25:09
  Speaker 2: 60 seats. Yeah. Yeah. You know, 2010 was a big one. Yeah.
• 25:14
  Speaker 2: So like to me, 10, 94 and 74, those were
• 25:17
  Speaker 2: huge ones. And then you have like ones that were
• 25:20
  Speaker 2: certainly switch things. Oh, six did. But that was a
• 25:23
  Speaker 2: very competitive environment. It just was an environment that all
• 25:27
  Speaker 2: went in the same direction. Democrats just won everything. Yeah.
• 25:31
  Speaker 2: And that's why I still think it's 06 is a
• 25:34
  Speaker 2: better model than 74. Yep. Like, I don't think this
• 25:37
  Speaker 2: is the post-Nixon collapse where– now, if it is, Jim
• 25:44
  Speaker 2: Risch is an ex-senator. Sure. Like, you know what I mean? Like,
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: what's the scenario– Yeah, Roger Marshall definitely loses. Todd Killies
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: and Brian Bangs. Right. There, to me, that's bottom fallout territory. Yeah.
• 25:55
  Speaker 2: I think they're running very competitive races. Well, that's like
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: Democrats at like 56, 57 seats.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: Yeah, probably in the way the house is rejiggered more
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: like 40, but 40 is the new 60 in that
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: sense is what I would say. I think the more–
• 26:09
  Speaker 2: but the point reason– look, you can predict it. I
• 26:12
  Speaker 2: can also predict that Texas A & M is going
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: to lose to UT San Antonio. It's unlikely to happen,
• 26:21
  Speaker 2: but they're not going to win 100% of the time,
• 26:23
  Speaker 2: but one out of probably– five out of every hundred
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: times they play, TSA is going to win a matchup
• 26:29
  Speaker 2: like that. They played Texas this weekend, but I imagine that,
• 26:32
  Speaker 2: you know, and so the point is it's, it's, I
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: think it's, do I think we're more likely go that
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: we will all be under counting democratic prospects than over? Probably.
• 26:48
  Speaker 2: But the fact is based on history, based on money,
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: based on sort of what we've seen over the last,
• 26:55
  Speaker 2: 10 years. You were misleading people by predicting a tsunami.
• 27:01
  Speaker 2: That doesn't mean here are the ingredients for it. It
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: meets all the... But it's like many a hurricane can
• 27:08
  Speaker 2: become a category five, but a lot of times it
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: ends up a category two or three.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Even if all the ingredients exist three days out.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: And we're more than three days out. Right. So.
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: The answer to your question is we probably are more
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: likely underrating than overrating Democratic chances of a big night. But,
• 27:31
  Speaker 2: you know, for the Democrats to win the Senate, they
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: have to win at least four seats in states that
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: Trump won, right? That just doesn't happen very often. So
• 27:50
  Speaker 2: it is sort of.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Beating Susan Collins ain't enough.
• 27:53
  Speaker 2: Do I think Roger Marshall's in trouble? I do. Yes.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Would I normally put Kansas? I think like sometimes an
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: environment like this isolates a bad candidate. Roger Marshall's a
• 28:03
  Speaker 2: bad candidate. And now I think he's in deep trouble.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: And it's like, that doesn't mean I think Kansas is
• 28:09
  Speaker 2: turning blue either. Like two things can be correct at
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: the same time. It's a long shot normally, but you've
• 28:15
  Speaker 2: got now a candidate spiraling. That's right. And he has
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: no idea. And with attention on him, right? That's the
• 28:20
  Speaker 2: other problem. Now people are paying attention. That's right. And
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: he can't really handle it in the moment. That may
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: be what happens to Jim Risch with the Todd Achilles.
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: Suddenly the local media decides, what the hell is Jim
• 28:31
  Speaker 2: Risch up to? Can you handle the job anymore? Wait,
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: he's in his 80s? Right. Like that kind of thing. Yeah. Exactly.
• 28:37
  Speaker 2: So it's one of those where... I think, you know,
• 28:42
  Speaker 2: somebody could go ahead and predict the tsunami. They have
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: a 10% chance of being right. And if they're right,
• 28:46
  Speaker 2: they could claim they are the new Nate Silver of
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: the world. If they want to, you know, it was,
• 28:52
  Speaker 2: you know, it was always funny to me. Nate took
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: a lot of credit for getting 2008.
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 28:56
  Speaker 2: Everybody got 2008. Right. I'm not impressed. Tell me you
• 28:58
  Speaker 2: got 2000. Right. And then I'll be impressed. That was
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: more challenging. Much more. Exactly. So, you know, there was no,
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: it was like, I think he claimed he got 49 States. Right. Okay.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: So did everybody. Nobody got Indiana. Yeah.
• 29:11
  Speaker 1: I think it is important to remember probabilities. 10% probability
• 29:16
  Speaker 1: means out of 100 times, it happens 10 times. It
• 29:19
  Speaker 1: doesn't mean it's the most likely, but it also doesn't
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: mean no one saw the possibility.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: Here's the comparison I would make. You've got your three outcomes,
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: blue mirage, blue wave, blue tsunami. Now, here's a better
• 29:34
  Speaker 2: way to do this. What's more likely, a blue mirage
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: or a blue tsunami? Tsunami. Now, that is an interesting debate.
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: I think tsunami is more likely, but I'm basing that
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: on atmospherics trumping on the ground.
• 29:53
  Speaker 2: Right. If you do this district by district, you can't
• 29:55
  Speaker 2: get to Blue Tsunami. And in fact, atmospherics and what
• 29:59
  Speaker 2: I read, like those issue prompts, you're like, Holy cow,
• 30:03
  Speaker 2: what the hell do Republicans run on? Now, I'm watching them.
• 30:06
  Speaker 2: They've decided to hijack a few issues that have been
• 30:09
  Speaker 2: helping Democrats. They're going to run out of corruption. They're
• 30:11
  Speaker 2: going to hit Jared Moskowitz for doing what Donald Trump
• 30:14
  Speaker 2: does times a thousand, you know, trading stocks and things
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: like that. It is interesting to me that if you
• 30:21
  Speaker 2: can't beat them, join them, right? They're like trying to
• 30:23
  Speaker 2: take the issue. Boy, affordability, you're absolutely right. We've got
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: to make this more affordable. I don't know whether... Voters
• 30:31
  Speaker 2: see that as hypocritical or voters will then, because I
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: get what Republicans are trying to do. What they really
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: want to make the public think is all politicians are corrupt.
• 30:43
  Speaker 2: Trump's success has always come not with raising the bar.
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: It's been lowering the bar. 100%. Everybody's like me. I'm
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: just willing to admit it. And I'm not going to
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: rule out the idea that a whole bunch of independents say, God,
• 30:55
  Speaker 2: you're right. You're right.
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: Everybody.
• 30:56
  Speaker 2: They all suck. And maybe I won't show up. I
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: don't think that's going to be the case at the moment,
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: but it could.
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: I thought I was reading the NBC write up of
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: their poll and our friend Bill McInturff, who conducts the
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: Republican end of it, has a really good quote in
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: there that you and I have been talking a lot about,
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: which is his his. quote speaks to exactly the question.
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: The atmospherics are absolutely terrible for Republicans. And the money,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: the map... are quite good for Republicans. The money and
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: geography favor Republicans.
• 31:35
  Speaker 2: And so which do you think matters more? And I
• 31:39
  Speaker 2: think that's really the question.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: And that's why I kind of lean, I just, I
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: keep going back to how, you and I have talked
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: about this. I went back and did the Cook Political
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: Report Senate toss-ups for the last like eight elections. And like,
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: Not every time, but I think seven out of the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: last eight, they all go in one direction.
• 31:57
  Speaker 2: Look at it. Here's a better way to look at
• 31:59
  Speaker 2: that if you're going to do that. Yeah. Because I've
• 32:01
  Speaker 2: done this too. The better way to look at it
• 32:03
  Speaker 2: is in years that the Senate changed hands. Oh, interesting.
• 32:07
  Speaker 2: Majority change. Yeah. Correct. Yes. When there's a majority change-
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: 06 is a good example of that, by the way.
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: When you see this pattern, 14 was like this. 06
• 32:17
  Speaker 2: was like this. That's- um that's how to look at
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: those at those is when you see when it when
• 32:26
  Speaker 2: it actually when the senate changed hands what did those
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: toss-ups do and that's where you do you see a
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: little bit more of uniform.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Sort of clumping right so i don't know i mean
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: i think that's the that's the debate right it's it's
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: like 50 000 feet this looks like it's democratic tsunami
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: 50 feet to your point, if you go race by race,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: you're like, well, Nebraska?
• 32:48
  Speaker 2: I mean, I guess. I think there was an important
• 32:51
  Speaker 2: AP story out earlier today that's gotten a little bit overlooked.
• 32:54
  Speaker 2: And it was a story about how some of the
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: get out the vote groups on the left aren't getting
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: the funding they've been normally used to. Oh, interesting. There's
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: a bunch of, Republicans have more billionaire donors than the
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Democrats do. Democrats have the biggest giving billionaire in Mr. Soros,
• 33:10
  Speaker 2: but they don't have anybody else. And he isn't like,
• 33:14
  Speaker 2: he doesn't trounce the Republican side. No, the top 10
• 33:16
  Speaker 2: in terms of individual givers, it's always like Soros and
• 33:20
  Speaker 2: nine Republicans.
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: Or eight or something like that.
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: But the Democrats have a lot of people, a lot
• 33:27
  Speaker 2: of what I'd call a lot of eight figure donors,
• 33:31
  Speaker 2: a lot of seven to eight figure donors that are
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: not giving at the moment. And it's why they are
• 33:38
  Speaker 2: not putting you, you, you know, I think they've got
• 33:41
  Speaker 2: a missed opportunity in Mississippi. I think they got a
• 33:43
  Speaker 2: missed opportunity in South Carolina, but they don't have the
• 33:47
  Speaker 2: money because they're, you know, at this point, they're probably
• 33:50
  Speaker 2: better off investing in Kansas over Mississippi at this point.
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: It's probably similar financial lift.
• 33:56
  Speaker 2: And it's been a while since they had, and nevermind
• 34:00
  Speaker 2: that cryptos decided to punish Senate Democrats by going after
• 34:03
  Speaker 2: Sherrod Brown now. Yep. Is it, You know, Democrats for
• 34:07
  Speaker 2: the longest time had this huge money advantage pretty much
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: in every cycle against Trump, except this one. So first
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: time they've not they've not had more.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Their candidates continue to raise Republican candidates, but they still
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: have more individual donors.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Let me let me more individual.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Let me share this, because this is I mean, if
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: if on November 4th, OK, if on November 4th, Republicans
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: lose the House by two seats and Democrats have.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: And hold the Senate. And Republicans hold the Senate.
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: This, I think, will ultimately.
• 34:37
  Speaker 2: Let me share. This is by Patrick Svitek, who I knew.
• 34:41
  Speaker 2: I assume it's the DNC. So this is all of
• 34:44
  Speaker 2: the party committees.
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: Now, some of this is slightly misleading.
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: The NRSC, yes, that's the Republican Senatorial Committee. They haven't raised...
• 34:52
  Speaker 2: A lot of that's already been spent and a lot
• 34:54
  Speaker 2: of that goes through their leadership pack. This number.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: would be the one at the top look that would
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: concern the hell out of me.
• 35:01
  Speaker 2: And here's who i hold accountable for that it's joe
• 35:03
  Speaker 2: biden and kamala harris they were running the national party
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: in 24 they left the party in debt and for
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: a variety of reasons it's not that dead i mean to.
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: Be clear do the math they yeah the dnc has
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: less money on hand than they owe the rnc is
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: 126 million dollars in the bank and chuck to your
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: funding all these get out the vote.
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: Things They can't do it. There's no money. And this is,
• 35:27
  Speaker 2: like I said, I think this is, if you're angry
• 35:31
  Speaker 2: about this, the two people to finger point at is
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. They basically were in charge
• 35:38
  Speaker 2: of the DNC. The DNC is an arm of the
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: presidential campaigns. And they were both at times in charge
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: of the DNC. And the DNC in a presidential year
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: is a money laundering operation. Ditto with the RNC. Always. Always. But,
• 35:51
  Speaker 2: you know, and they just basically used the line of
• 35:53
  Speaker 2: credit to borrow against and all of this stuff. But,
• 35:56
  Speaker 2: you know, the proper thing to do is to focus
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: your entire energy and paying down that debt as fast
• 36:01
  Speaker 2: as you can to get the party ready for the
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: next midterm. And there's just no leadership nationally. And look,
• 36:06
  Speaker 2: Akeem Jeffries got to worry about the DCCC. Chuck Schumer's
• 36:09
  Speaker 2: got to worry about the DSCC. You know, Joe Biden
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: and Kamala Harris walked away. And I, you know, some
• 36:17
  Speaker 2: of their some of their folks who are defenders of
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: them are are going to, there goes Chucky, such a
• 36:22
  Speaker 2: hater or something like that.
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: No, it's just a fact.
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: It's just a fact. I mean, like they've let the
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: party down.
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: Joe Biden's 82 years old. Kamala Harris felt rejected. I
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: get all, I get all the explanation, but the job
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: of the two most prominent.
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: People in the party is to put the, right. You
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: literally bankrupted the party and you've done nothing to fix
• 36:43
  Speaker 2: that situation.
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: And by the way, never stepped in in any meaningful
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: way in the Ken Martin situation either. So Ken Martin
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: just continues to lurch onward at.
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: The DNC because there's no one who's willing to push
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: him out or take the job. The question is, what
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: if Democrats succeed despite the DNC being irrelevant? And then
• 37:01
  Speaker 2: it makes you go, maybe the DNC is irrelevant. But
• 37:06
  Speaker 2: it's such a missed opportunity. It's such a missed opportunity. And,
• 37:10
  Speaker 2: you know, it's... But the DNC is basically– this goes
• 37:16
  Speaker 2: back to the David Plouffe and Barack Obama decision not
• 37:19
  Speaker 2: to engage the DNC back in.
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: And build their own operation. I just– I wonder, Chuck,
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: and I always have felt this way about the presidential
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: where it's like– it used to be– certainly when I
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: learned politics from Charlie Cook, Amy Walter, and Jennifer Duffy,
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: one of the first lessons I learned was– Money isn't determinative,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: but you almost always see the candidate with more beat
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: the candidate with less. Under the theory that back then, certainly,
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: the money went into campaign TV ads. And if you
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: could have the greatest message in the world, but if
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: nobody knew about it on TV, it didn't matter.
• 37:51
  Speaker 2: And then the presidential, I feel like, look, Trump has
• 37:53
  Speaker 2: been outspent twice. Maybe actually all three times. All three times.
• 37:58
  Speaker 2: He's won twice. All three times he was outspent.
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: So I've always thought, like, okay, maybe in the presidential,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: given the amount of money, that it's like you've got
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: to get to a certain threshold. Is that going to
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: be true, do you think, at Senate and House now, too? That, like,
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: you've just got to get to a certain number?
• 38:13
  Speaker 2: I think you can moneyball this. Look, do I think
• 38:17
  Speaker 2: you can moneyball this with the way micro-targeting? It's funny,
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: I got a whole rant about this. The worst thing,
• 38:25
  Speaker 2: the reason our politics are so fragmented and polarized is
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: because we micro-target. And the more you micro-target, the more
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: fragmenting that we do. And it's like- Everybody's getting their
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: own message. You know, I miss the days when we
• 38:37
  Speaker 2: incorrectly thought swing voters were all somewhere in the middle
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: and then everybody's closing TV ads was working with the
• 38:43
  Speaker 2: other side. Our ignorance is bliss. Oh, exactly. And that's
• 38:46
  Speaker 2: exactly what it was. 2004 showed up. You're like, oh,
• 38:49
  Speaker 2: these undecided voters, they're not moderates. I still remember Bush,
• 38:53
  Speaker 2: Bush and Rove running ads in like– gyms, like on
• 38:59
  Speaker 2: the gym internal thing. And I was like blown away
• 39:02
  Speaker 2: by that. No, I mean, that's the thing you've got to,
• 39:05
  Speaker 2: I'm fascinated by how, and the thing is, is that
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: you can, you can get, you could pretty much profile
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: you and I now. Oh, sure. Based on our viewing habits.
• 39:16
  Speaker 2: Of course. This is why we buy an Amazon. What we,
• 39:19
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's fascinating to watch Nats advertising and how
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: DC centric it is, how they basically they've, they've, You know, smartly,
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: Nats TVs figured out that there's some value in being,
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: knowing that there's a whole bunch of, um, of opinion
• 39:35
  Speaker 2: leaders and house chiefs and congressional chiefs of staff that
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: are Nats fans. And they're going to watch the Nats
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: game all the time and lobbyists that are gonna watch
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: the Nats game and consultants are gonna watch the Nats game.
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: And, Why is this Northup Grumman ad running?
• 39:48
  Speaker 2: Well, and then there's like, you know, the Kratom. I
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: didn't know they had their own super PAC. They're clearly
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: targeting Trump. They were just advertising in like game day
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago, hoping that like, I guess
• 40:01
  Speaker 2: it was only in the DC market. They bought it. Like,
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: I don't think we saw it in other markets hoping
• 40:06
  Speaker 2: that they'd catch Trump watching. Yeah. He's like watching McAfee. Right. Yeah.
• 40:20
  Speaker 2: I think you're right about a little bit of money
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: ball thing.
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: I just think we always default in like, look, Jamie Harrison,
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: if money was determinative, Jamie Harrison would have beat Lindsey Graham.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: You know what I mean?
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Like there there's any number of those situations where, where
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: that's the case. Let's talk a little bit about Democrats. Um,
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: you mentioned Kamala Harris, uh, Sunday night, Axios has a
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: 2028 newsletter, which I recommend people should sign up for.
• 40:44
  Speaker 2: It's free.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: Um, They reported that most Kamala Harris folks they spoke to.
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: Now, it's anecdotal.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I think they said, we polled eight former top aides.
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: And of the eight, five said she won't run in 2028.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: Two said it's a coin flip. One said she would run.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: Does that surprise you at all? No, I mean, I
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: think I read the piece and everybody– it's like why
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: did Gavin Newsom say what he did? Right. Because I
• 41:14
  Speaker 2: think he assumed she's not running.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Putting a chip on she's not running and I can
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: get credit for looking magnanimous.
• 41:20
  Speaker 2: Right. And it's certainly– but if she were running for president,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: you wouldn't have bought a place in Malibu. $ 8 million
• 41:28
  Speaker 2: place in Malibu. That's the biggest tell of all of it. Yeah.
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: And she really hasn't– if I were– If I were
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: Kamala Harris and I were running for president, I'd be
• 41:41
  Speaker 2: spending all of my time raising money to turn out
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: African-American voters in Mississippi and South Carolina. She is not
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: doing that. I would be spending all of my time
• 41:53
  Speaker 2: trying to go all over the South about helping these
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: candidates that have seen the Voting Rights Act impact congressional districts. Again,
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: like there is a there is a if you told
• 42:07
  Speaker 2: me she wanted to make sure that basically she had
• 42:11
  Speaker 2: squatters rights here. Hey, this is my nomination until somebody
• 42:14
  Speaker 2: else takes it away from me. She had ways to
• 42:17
  Speaker 2: sort of.
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: Go campaign for Shamari figures in that Alabama seat. There's
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: clear not just campaign. I mean, you started your your
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: super PAC. is totally devoted to registering new voters in
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Mississippi and South Carolina. You are party building and you're
• 42:33
  Speaker 1: party building among African-Americans. You're cementing that tie with the
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: most important constituency group to win a nomination for the presidency.
• 42:40
  Speaker 2: Especially with South Carolina going first. She's not done any
• 42:43
  Speaker 2: of this. No, she's like campaigning with John Ossoff. She
• 42:45
  Speaker 2: has not done any of this. Zero. Look, there are
• 42:50
  Speaker 2: people that reach out to her. There are Democratic primary
• 42:54
  Speaker 2: voters that her endorsement matters. And you saw it why
• 43:00
  Speaker 2: Keisha Lance Bottoms wanted her. You saw why Abdul El-Sayed
• 43:04
  Speaker 2: needs her because Black voters have been a little hesitant
• 43:07
  Speaker 2: on this candidacy. I might argue Gina Inouye might want
• 43:13
  Speaker 2: her in helping out in some African-American communities. I don't know.
• 43:17
  Speaker 2: At the same time, they're both trying to run as
• 43:18
  Speaker 2: different types of Democrats, so maybe they don't want the
• 43:21
  Speaker 2: national person in. So The point is, she has not
• 43:25
  Speaker 2: done the things that I think would have made her
• 43:28
  Speaker 2: a more formidable front runner. Because I do think it's
• 43:31
  Speaker 2: sort of, she's the incumbent here, if you will. And she,
• 43:35
  Speaker 2: like I said, she had squatter's rights. If she chose to,
• 43:39
  Speaker 2: if she chose to squat. Yes. She chose not to.
• 43:42
  Speaker 2: She walked away. She's, you know, she's sort of lending her,
• 43:46
  Speaker 2: you know, she isn't. 100% engaged in all of this.
• 43:51
  Speaker 2: Look at Rahm Emanuel compared to what Kamala Harris is doing.
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: Rahm Emanuel is grinding in every congressional district. Now, some
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: of that is he needs to, but she could be
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: far more involved than she's been.
• 44:01
  Speaker 2: How about Pete Buttigieg? Yeah, he's everywhere. He is everywhere
• 44:05
  Speaker 2: as he could be. So yeah, I mean, I know
• 44:09
  Speaker 2: that's the conclusion I would have come to. Do you
• 44:12
  Speaker 2: think that's the right– I guess she's not running. Do
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: you think that's the right decision for the Democratic Party's
• 44:18
  Speaker 2: chances of winning in 2028? So I don't know. I
• 44:21
  Speaker 2: mean I will say this. I think we underestimate her
• 44:25
  Speaker 2: a little bit. I think we underestimate her hold on
• 44:30
  Speaker 2: how important she is to black women. OK? I don't–
• 44:35
  Speaker 2: I think there's a– be very careful being dismissive of her.
• 44:40
  Speaker 2: I'd say this to any Democrat. if you're counting on
• 44:42
  Speaker 2: black women to help you win an election.
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: Core base pillar.
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: And this is why I think what Gavin Newsom did
• 44:49
  Speaker 2: to me, that wasn't a checkers move. That was a
• 44:51
  Speaker 2: chess move. I thought that was very smart. He's placing
• 44:53
  Speaker 2: a bet. It's an educated bet. I can tell you this.
• 44:57
  Speaker 2: It means he's going to get a nicer reception in
• 44:59
  Speaker 2: South Carolina among black women when he meets with those
• 45:02
  Speaker 2: activists that are there. So I think it's, I think
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: it's really smart politics. Now, I think at this point,
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: there's a case to be made that the buyer's remorse argument,
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: but Al Gore chose not to run an 04. Now
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: that because at the time, the country had turned in
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: a positive direction on Bush, had decided, nope, he's capable
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: of this job. Right.
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: There was not as much buyer's remorse 04.
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: Right. There is some buyer's remorse on Trump in Vance.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: There's no doubt about it. But- And I think that's
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: in theory how she could have set her candidacy up.
• 45:47
  Speaker 2: But look, we know what history shows. Repeat nominees. I can't,
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: you know, rarely, you know, we've got Trump and Grover Cleveland, right?
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: That's pretty much it, right? Repeat nominees, Adlai Stevenson. That
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: didn't work out so well.
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: Three times not a charm.
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly. So it's a tough thing to do. I
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: certainly would take a cycle off if I were in
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: her shoes because I think This is where I think
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: she's still a stateswoman of the party. I think her
• 46:18
  Speaker 2: reputation will be better than Biden's in two years or
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: four years. Just got to let it muster a little,
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: like let it linger a little bit. And if Democrats
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: blow it at 28 and she's not a part of
• 46:29
  Speaker 2: it and they do worse against Vance, then suddenly she
• 46:33
  Speaker 2: may look like a strong alternative come 2032. Or- She
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: may become a better alternative to run for governor in
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: California in 2030. So the point is that I think
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: the best path for her is to take a cycle off.
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: But I do think her– I think she's been– she's
• 46:54
  Speaker 2: taken too much time off. I think that the DNC
• 46:58
  Speaker 2: issue is something that she should have– Solved.
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: Solved.
• 47:03
  Speaker 2: She should be more a part of. That's all. Whether
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: she could solve it, I'm not going to– it's not
• 47:08
  Speaker 2: the easiest thing to solve, but she should have been
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: more at the forefront of that. And I think if
• 47:14
  Speaker 2: she wanted to truly be seen as a leader, as
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: the leader of the party as opposed to a leader
• 47:20
  Speaker 2: of the party.
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: And this goes back to the point you made, and
• 47:23
  Speaker 1: I always, it's the don't judge them by the polling,
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: judge them by their actions, right? Ashley Hinson posts that
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: tweet because she has some level of concern that Donald
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: Trump could drag her down in a farm belt state.
• 47:36
  Speaker 1: Kamala Harris, yes, she says when she's asked, she says, yeah,
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking about running and yeah, or, you know, I
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: haven't ruled anything out, blah, blah. But her actions, by
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: and large, suggest probably not. You know, that this is
• 47:50
  Speaker 1: probably not going to be something. Now, look, politicians change
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: their mind all the time. But I actually think she would.
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: I think her best day in that campaign is probably
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: her first day in that campaign.
• 48:01
  Speaker 2: By the way, let's say she decides she still wants
• 48:04
  Speaker 2: to keep it her option open. She can get in
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: at the very last minute. She could get in.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: She could get in the latest of anyone in the field.
• 48:11
  Speaker 2: Because let's say the whole party just beats the crap
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: out of each other and it looks terrible. Yeah. Well,
• 48:16
  Speaker 2: then suddenly she might be the shining– your car looks
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: new to me now. You don't have any dents in
• 48:23
  Speaker 2: you the way we've dented up all of these candidates
• 48:26
  Speaker 2: that have been beating the crap out of each other.
• 48:28
  Speaker 2: And so, yeah, I think there's also a case that
• 48:31
  Speaker 2: she is sort of– You know, the role she played
• 48:35
  Speaker 2: the first time, the backup candidate. I was going to
• 48:37
  Speaker 2: say the polling has all of the leading candidates losing
• 48:40
  Speaker 2: by eight points to J.D.
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: Vance.
• 48:42
  Speaker 2: And here she comes. Yeah. One other 28 Democratic story.
• 48:48
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you saw this, but on Monday.
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: JB Pritzker did an interview with CBS where he talked about,
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: which is interesting in and of itself, but he talked
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: about the fact that he has lost 80 pounds on GLP-1s. Now,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: for people who don't know, JB Pritzker was a large man.
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: He is not real thin now, but he is much thinner.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: I always thought, Chuck, that Mike Huckabee should have leaned
• 49:16
  Speaker 1: even more into his own weight loss and his struggles
• 49:19
  Speaker 1: of growing up in the South. I've really worked on this.
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: He talked some about preventative, like you got to work
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: to be healthy. In a world of GLP-1s, at least
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: with a.
• 49:35
  Speaker 2: Lot of people, can J.B. Pritzker.
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: Is his weight loss journey and him embracing this, is
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: that something he can campaign on? I'm fascinated by how this,
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: it's such a societal change. Weight Watchers is like now,
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: you know, working with JLP1s and like, what does it mean, Chuck?
• 49:54
  Speaker 2: Tell me what it means. How often did you always
• 49:56
  Speaker 2: hear like, why does Oprah connect? Well, she struggles with
• 50:00
  Speaker 2: things like I do, like weight, you know, and women
• 50:04
  Speaker 2: and weight and always felt as if, Man, she sees me.
• 50:08
  Speaker 2: You know, it's not just the people in the Glamour
• 50:11
  Speaker 2: magazines and all of that. Right. So, you know, here
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: was this billionaire who connected to everyday people on something
• 50:18
  Speaker 2: because she was. And so what's Pritzker? A billionaire. But
• 50:23
  Speaker 2: guess what? Even a billion dollars. Now it allows you
• 50:25
  Speaker 2: to afford the GLP without. But, you know, here's here's
• 50:32
  Speaker 2: somebody no matter how much money you have, he's got
• 50:34
  Speaker 2: the same issues that I have. And and so he
• 50:38
  Speaker 2: knows what it's like, you know, if people stare at
• 50:40
  Speaker 2: you funny or maybe he's got. Sure. He's excellent. So
• 50:43
  Speaker 2: do I make jokes about your size like Donald Trump
• 50:46
  Speaker 2: has a hundred percent? And so I absolutely do. I
• 50:51
  Speaker 2: think any time you can make voters think, hey, you've
• 50:55
  Speaker 2: had to you've had you've had to live a life
• 50:58
  Speaker 2: that a big chunk of the of the country feels
• 51:01
  Speaker 2: like they've had to navigate, you know, whether it's. saying
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: you are still paying off your student loans, right? That
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: connects you to a certain group of people.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: Freezing your eggs and talking about that journey.
• 51:12
  Speaker 2: That's right. You know, I'm in my late 30s and
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: I'm in this moment. When do I, you know, I've
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: got professional opportunities and, you know, there's a lot of,
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: there's certain women in certain demographic groups that share the
• 51:25
  Speaker 2: same sort of choices and not the best choices that
• 51:29
  Speaker 2: an AOC is facing. at the moment. So I think
• 51:34
  Speaker 2: those things absolutely are a way to... We're a representative
• 51:41
  Speaker 2: democracy in our best form, meaning that we want people
• 51:47
  Speaker 2: that are representative of who we are in some form
• 51:51
  Speaker 2: or another. I think the hardest challenge is admitting that
• 51:55
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump represents a portion of America that we don't
• 51:57
  Speaker 2: want to Always admit it has always existed. Absolutely. But
• 52:03
  Speaker 2: that has been the challenge of America. We're a bunch
• 52:06
  Speaker 2: of individuals. We're individualistic. And that's why we care so
• 52:10
  Speaker 2: much about free markets and usually in free expression and
• 52:14
  Speaker 2: all of those things. And we don't love acting collectively,
• 52:18
  Speaker 2: but we will when we realize we have to. And
• 52:21
  Speaker 2: Trump represents the portion that doesn't like it when we
• 52:24
  Speaker 2: have to. I love the point, too. That portion's always existed.
• 52:28
  Speaker 1: I think finding a way to connect with voters when
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: you're a politician is always critical. It's even more critical
• 52:36
  Speaker 1: when you're a billionaire.
• 52:37
  Speaker 2: Oh, yeah.
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: You know, I mean, like, J.B. Pritzker is an heir
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: to the Hyatt money. His life has not been like
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: the lives of the average person. But in this way,
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: to Chuck's point, he still does. Like, I think it's
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: critically important.
• 52:53
  Speaker 2: You know, it's interesting with his candidacy. I view him
• 52:56
  Speaker 2: as the long shot progressive front runner. More than Ro Khanna.
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: More than Ro Khanna. Yeah, because that would be in
• 53:06
  Speaker 2: that same space, right? Yeah, I just think Ro Khanna
• 53:09
  Speaker 2: won't have the resources. I think if AOC doesn't run
• 53:12
  Speaker 2: and that's an open lane, I think Pritzker's got the
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: money to dominate that lane and basically be Tom Steyer
• 53:19
  Speaker 2: with a personality and a voting record.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: Tom Steyer, by the way, undecided on future gubernatorial campaigns
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: in California.
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: Did you see that quote? He's like, I'm not ruling
• 53:31
  Speaker 2: it in. I don't think the voters are undecided. No,
• 53:33
  Speaker 2: they're 100% decided.
• 53:34
  Speaker 1: I got one more Democratic thing and then we'll go
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: to sports. In the NBC poll out Monday, one thing
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: I was struck by, and you and I have, I
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: just want to keep banging on this theme because I
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: do think it's important. Neither party is particularly well regarded
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: by the public. But Democrats are actually worse regarded than
• 53:55
  Speaker 1: the Republican Party. And I just I just want to
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: put a pin in that, that like Democrats are probably
• 54:03
  Speaker 1: going to have a good to very good to maybe
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: on the outside. But the brand is not in good shape.
• 54:09
  Speaker 2: Now, there is a reason for it, which is why
• 54:11
  Speaker 2: it's like, is this a is this a problem for
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: the party? Well, it could be if they had it,
• 54:18
  Speaker 2: if we would we would say this was a problem
• 54:20
  Speaker 2: if they were having a turnout problem. But as we
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: see during the primary season, not only do they not
• 54:25
  Speaker 2: have a turnout problem, it's the best turnout advantage Democrats
• 54:28
  Speaker 2: have had this century.
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: And hugely important, and follow our friend John Kavulian, who's
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: been noting it.
• 54:33
  Speaker 2: I think, again, if you look at a giant Democrat-
• 54:34
  Speaker 2: How good is John Kavulian? Guess what? Bill McInturff in
• 54:37
  Speaker 2: his presentation about the poll- cites John Kavulian's work on
• 54:41
  Speaker 2: the primary stuff.
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: That's how he.
• 54:43
  Speaker 2: Is the man.
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: And you know how we said, if on November 4th,
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: Democratic gains are much less, it's going to be the money.
• 54:49
  Speaker 1: If Democratic gains are much more, we're going to go
• 54:51
  Speaker 1: back and say, John Kavulian on that Democratic primary turnout
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: versus Republican primary turnout versus historic.
• 54:58
  Speaker 2: That was the codex that should have told us. You know,
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: it's like, you know, Mitch McConnell's numbers were always the
• 55:04
  Speaker 2: worst than Pelosi's. Yep. remember, and it was because Republicans
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: and Democrats both didn't. That's right. Right? Republicans don't like
• 55:12
  Speaker 2: the Democratic brand, but half the Democratic Party doesn't like
• 55:16
  Speaker 2: the Democratic brand. Yep. While self-described Republicans are still pro-Republican,
• 55:20
  Speaker 2: majority of them. So I think that explains why Democrats
• 55:25
  Speaker 2: are slightly less. Independents don't like either party pretty much equally.
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: But it is the fact that there is more Democrats
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: who don't like the Democrats right now, right? And some
• 55:34
  Speaker 2: of them are center-left people who don't like the socialists.
• 55:36
  Speaker 2: And some of the socialists don't like the center left guys.
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: To your point, though, does that does that mean if
• 55:44
  Speaker 1: you're a Democrat, that brand number that should not worry
• 55:47
  Speaker 1: you because turnout is still quite good? Or is it
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: not a problem in 26, but will be a problem?
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: I think it's I think it's the second. I mean,
• 55:56
  Speaker 2: it's not not a problem in the midterm because midterms
• 55:59
  Speaker 2: are not about you don't vote for a party you
• 56:01
  Speaker 2: vote against. A midterm is an against election. Yeah, it's
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: a it's a it's a it's a. It's an upper–
• 56:08
  Speaker 2: it's a vote of either– it's a vote of confidence
• 56:13
  Speaker 2: or a vote of no confidence. That's it. And it's
• 56:15
  Speaker 2: all about the current administration barring some huge cataclysm. I always–
• 56:20
  Speaker 2: my avatar for this cycle for that poll question is
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Rob Sand, who just basically– tell– Makes it clear he's
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: not comfortable identifying as a Democrat. Just never says that
• 56:33
  Speaker 2: he's a Democrat. Never. Not in his ads, not on
• 56:35
  Speaker 2: the campaign trail, not in his speeches. And so this
• 56:39
  Speaker 2: is where it's a problem, where if you want independent
• 56:41
  Speaker 2: voters in some redder areas to give you– like why
• 56:44
  Speaker 2: is Todd Achilles being given a chance by voters in Idaho?
• 56:48
  Speaker 2: Because he doesn't associate with the Democratic Party anymore. Yeah.
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: Well, why are all these Democrats running as independents in
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: those states?
• 56:55
  Speaker 2: I mean, right. And by the way, you're going to
• 56:57
  Speaker 2: see the reverse. I think there's going to be I
• 56:58
  Speaker 2: think Trump's the stain Trump will leave on the Republican
• 57:02
  Speaker 2: Party in some of the bluer states is going to
• 57:05
  Speaker 2: make some Republicans, you know, you're going to see an
• 57:08
  Speaker 2: independent candidate in Virginia run for, you know, in the
• 57:12
  Speaker 2: next 10 years, I predict independent Republican-leaning candidate in a Colorado,
• 57:18
  Speaker 2: an independent Republican-leaning candidate, maybe even in a Minnesota, because
• 57:22
  Speaker 2: the MAGA soiled the Republican brand for basically your free
• 57:29
  Speaker 2: market conservatives. And so in the same way Rob Sand
• 57:35
  Speaker 2: doesn't feel comfortable with how far culturally left the Democratic
• 57:38
  Speaker 2: Party is going to come, there's a whole bunch of,
• 57:40
  Speaker 2: you know, I think you're sort of a guy that,
• 57:45
  Speaker 2: you know, A Mike Lawler of the world, you know,
• 57:48
  Speaker 2: who's totally trying to do everything. But he would have
• 57:51
  Speaker 2: had a shot at winning New York of had he
• 57:54
  Speaker 2: been able to run as a, you know, look, it's.
• 57:58
  Speaker 1: Well, you're seeing Kevin Kiley do it in California.
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: I mean, it's right. And I mean, I've got a
• 58:03
  Speaker 2: I got an old friend that's running the campaign for.
• 58:05
  Speaker 2: Christine Drazen in Oregon. In Oregon. Yep. And she's got
• 58:08
  Speaker 2: a real shot. The Republican in Oregon. Yes. You know,
• 58:11
  Speaker 2: it's a rematch. She came close the last time. There
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: was a three-way race the last time.
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: This is Tina Kotek is the sitting Democratic governor. And yes,
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: it's Oregon, but still.
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: You know, it's a law and order race and it's
• 58:21
  Speaker 2: a governor's race and governor's races can go against the grain. Totally.
• 58:25
  Speaker 2: Because they're very much about the state, right? Now, he's
• 58:30
  Speaker 2: been telling me just like, you know, this Republican base,
• 58:33
  Speaker 2: you know, the Republican brand, if Christine Drazen, if there
• 58:36
  Speaker 2: were no Republican and she were the independent, she'd probably
• 58:39
  Speaker 2: already have put this sucker away. But as both parties
• 58:54
  Speaker 2: get taken over by their bases, it's going to lead
• 58:57
  Speaker 2: a lot of folks to see if there's alternative ways to, look,
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: you may 70%. agree with the Republican electeds, or you
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: may 70% agree with like an Angus King with the
• 59:08
  Speaker 2: Democratic electeds, but you just may feel more comfortable being
• 59:12
  Speaker 2: able to not be punished for not being a card-carrying
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: member of the party, you know.
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: And not have to- Not have to own MAGA or
• 59:19
  Speaker 1: Democratic socialism.
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: Right. I mean, on the- By the way, Democratic socialists
• 59:24
  Speaker 2: were more unpopular than MAGA.
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: I saw that in the NBC poll. Most unpopular thing
• 59:28
  Speaker 1: they polled. The biggest story in Washington, D.C. in this
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: early week is not the fact that the election is
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: six weeks away.
• 59:45
  Speaker 2: It is... RG4? RG4, as you have so dubbed JD5.
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: I think I win the naming contest.
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: I love RG4. Although, if you're a Commanders fan, you
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: hate RG4. If you don't know what we're talking about,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: at the end of the first half in the Commanders-Cowboys game,
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: the Commanders are down 17-10. They're on the two-yard line.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: They go for it on third down with four seconds left.
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: They're going to have to score or they're not going
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: to get anything. They could have kicked a field goal.
• 1:00:14
  Speaker 1: The The right guard steps on Jaden Daniels, the franchise
• 1:00:20
  Speaker 1: quarterback's foot, as he tries to drop back. He stumbles,
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: of course. And as he stumbles, he puts his left
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: arm down. And in the words of Tom Brady, the
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: greatest quarterback in history, who is commentating on the game, oh, shit.
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: And yes, Tom Brady did say that on live television yesterday.
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 1: Because Jaden Daniels' elbow bends the wrong.
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 2: He was speaking for every Commander's fan. I would have
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: said something worse than that, to be totally honest. And
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 2: by the way, this happened, if you were watching Red Zone,
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 2: this happened about 45 minutes after Caleb Williams went down.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 1: Yes, within the hour.
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 2: And it was like, oh. I have to tell you,
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 2: I just got depressed. I'm like, oh, man, I feel
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 2: like injuries. I feel like I know it's football, but
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 2: I feel like and.
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: It's a contact sport and it's a violent sport, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: But I also feel like injuries. Maybe this is just
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 1: years of managing a fantasy football team. injuries really, I
• 1:01:17
  Speaker 1: struggle with the NFL sometimes because of the number of
• 1:01:20
  Speaker 1: high profile guys that get hurt, right? It's like tour
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: their Achilles tour.
• 1:01:23
  Speaker 2: No, it happens. Why do you think you pay them
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 2: as much? And why do you, a, why do you
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: pay them? And B, why are college players going, Hey,
• 1:01:30
  Speaker 2: pay me. I mean, this game, I know you got
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: to get it when you can, you got to get
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 2: it when you can. And I have, I don't begrudge
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 2: them that I don't begrudge them at all. And all these,
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 2: you know, I, I, the, the more I don't get
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 2: the per, the quote unquote protect college sports bill is
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: nothing more than a protect the institutions bill and don't- Well,
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: the pendulum, that would swing.
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: So when Chuck and I were young, the pendulum was
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: entirely against players and for whether it was college, you.
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: Know, administrations in the pros, owners.
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: It then swung considerably when we were in our 40s
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: to the players, NIL, no transfer penalty. And this would
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: swing it way back in the other direction, back to
• 1:02:13
  Speaker 1: like when we were kids.
• 1:02:15
  Speaker 2: Probably illegally. I mean, I just think it doesn't– I
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 2: don't think it's going to survive a court case. I just–
• 1:02:20
  Speaker 2: I do get bummed about it. But I'll be honest.
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 2: I think these senators are embarrassing themselves with what they're–
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: those that are supporting this bill. It is– You're basically saying,
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: and again, it's due to these injuries. Look, your lifetime
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 2: to earn money in football is very short.
• 1:02:40
  Speaker 1: I think less than three years is the average NFL career.
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 2: And to somehow squat on their ability to make money
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 2: when they're literally making the decision. And you could say,
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 2: if you pay them less, you're going to get fewer
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 2: people willing to Gamble with their future physically in order
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 2: to make money now. Oh, it's like I think I
• 1:03:01
  Speaker 2: think maybe that's for long term. Maybe that's a better
• 1:03:04
  Speaker 2: thing for society. I don't know.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: I think playing football now is at that level. They
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: are high school I could live with. But playing football
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: at college and professional level is like smoking. It's clearly
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: bad for you. Now, it doesn't mean you're going to
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: die of lung cancer. It doesn't mean you're going to
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: die of CTE. But it's not good for you. It's
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: like driving around without a seatbelt on.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 2: You might not die, but it's high risk. You were
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 2: going to have problems later in life. Correct. Now the
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 2: question is, I go back to, there's a famous anecdote
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 2: of Larry Zonka. For those of you who don't know
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 2: who Larry Zonka was. Great Miami Dolphin. Was a fullback
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 2: running back back when running backs played both positions. And
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 2: he was part of a running back trio, actually, of
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 2: Jim Kick, Mercury Morris, and Larry Zonka. Mercury Morris, right.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: And Larry Zonka during the perfect season in those early
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: years of the Dolphins when they were really good. You know, the...
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 2: Coaches used to say, it's like Derrick Henry today. Oh,
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: it's first and eight. Why is it first and eight?
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 2: Because Larry Zonka is always good for two yards. And
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: you know you can get two yards. Anyway, he played
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: in that 60s, 70s NFL. And there was this great story.
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: He was doing an interview. I want to say it
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: was with Business Week, believe it or not. It was
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 2: something like that in his retirement years. And I remember
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: this because my dad read the profile and he showed
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: it to me because it was such an interesting visual.
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 2: He says, I keep my stock statements in the bathroom.
• 1:04:34
  Speaker 2: And you know why Larry Zonka kept his stock statements
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 2: in the bathroom? So he could motivate himself to get
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 2: up off the toilet because it hurts so much to
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 2: just get up from a seated position for all the abuse.
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: This is his knees that was taken back in the
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: day and all of that. Just the simple, just going
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: to the bathroom, sitting down on the toilet, was a
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: chore to get back up. And he was like, when
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: I saw my bank statement and my stock statement, I'd
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: be like, had to remind myself, this is, I was
• 1:05:09
  Speaker 2: compensated for the price I paid.
• 1:05:12
  Speaker 1: For your body.
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: And the point is, is that that it's, you know,
• 1:05:17
  Speaker 2: talk to boxers, talk to UFC fighters, I think of
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 2: it with pro wrestling, Chuck. It's like all pro wrestlers.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: It's like they made a trade-off. It was like, okay,
• 1:05:27
  Speaker 2: this is a way I can make money. And then
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 2: you see these guys. And you can make really good money.
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: And they look like they're 35 years older than they are.
• 1:05:34
  Speaker 1: They can't walk. I mean.
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: You're also taking, you're creating health problems down the road. Yes.
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: It's borrowing against your health down the road. 100%. Now, again,
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: if the exchange of goods and services. I know. And
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: they're adults. If the money's good enough. To me, it
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 2: should be their decision. It shouldn't be the decision of
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: somebody else whether this should be allowed or not. It
• 1:05:58
  Speaker 2: is their decision. And here we are. But to then...
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: go out of your way to compensate these folks less,
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 2: given everything we know, you will, the unintended consequence, this
• 1:06:10
  Speaker 2: is where I would go to, I love college football.
• 1:06:13
  Speaker 2: This last weekend is another reminder of why college football
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 2: is so much fun because you never know who's going
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 2: to give like.
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 1: Ole Miss-Louisiana game was amazing.
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: Forget that. The A & M game was great, but
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: they lost.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: You hated it.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: Right. Kentucky A & M. I'll give you Florida State-Alabama
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: was a lot of fun to watch that game. Very
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: high scoring. Didn't know that was coming type of thing.
• 1:06:32
  Speaker 2: And college football, shoot, Notre Dame, Michigan State was a
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 2: ball game for three quarters. Miami, Wake Forest popped up.
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 2: It became a little more in peril. I love college football.
• 1:06:46
  Speaker 2: I don't want to lose it. But if you create
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 2: a system like this where you're essentially, you know, you
• 1:06:51
  Speaker 2: just want the institutions to profit. You don't want the
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 2: players to make any money for what they're trading off
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 2: and you limit what they can earn. You're going to
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 2: limit the amount of labor that's going to want to
• 1:07:02
  Speaker 2: come into that workforce. Of course.
• 1:07:03
  Speaker 1: And you're actually going to have a– Well, because the
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: calculation is different.
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 2: And you'll have a crappier product and et cetera, et cetera,
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 2: et cetera.
• 1:07:11
  Speaker 1: I just– I feel badly for Jaden Daniels who, based
• 1:07:15
  Speaker 1: on everything I've seen, seems like a genuinely good guy.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 2: I mean it was the freakest of freak injuries. This
• 1:07:21
  Speaker 2: is why I can't believe– this is why– agents fight
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 2: so hard for guaranteed contracts. Guaranteed money. It's amazing to
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 2: me that the NFL, I do think eventually the NFL
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 2: Players Union will someday have leverage enough to get guaranteed contracts.
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 2: At least maybe you'll never get full contracts, but maybe
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 2: two years guaranteed, more of that. It is amazing that
• 1:07:48
  Speaker 2: in that sport there aren't guaranteed deals. Any given Sunday.
• 1:07:51
  Speaker 2: It's just... I mean, well, by the way, I understand
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: why the owners don't want to. Well, yeah, of course,
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: because of what just what they just saw happens.
• 1:08:00
  Speaker 1: Right. But yeah, anyway, that is the story. You turn
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 1: on any radio station, that is what they are talking about.
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: How long is he going to miss? It's all about
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 2: Caleb Williams. And what's wrong with his hamstring? Yes. Hey,
• 1:08:13
  Speaker 2: I'm just glad it wasn't Achilles. I mean, I thought
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: knee or Achilles.
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: When he went down.
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: By the way, talk about reminder that we know nothing
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: in week two of the NFL. There was a point
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 2: really close to the end of the one o'clock games where,
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 2: because maybe I had a parlay on this. I may
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: have had some actual Chuck credits involved. I had a
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: Moneyline parlay betting against the following teams. The Browns. Sure. Raiders.
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 2: The Titans. No, no, no. I didn't have the Raiders. Okay.
• 1:08:43
  Speaker 2: I wasn't going to. I was betting against the Browns,
• 1:08:46
  Speaker 2: the Titans, and the Saints. Sure. Because they were playing
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 2: the Eagles, the Bucks, and the Ravens. And two of
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: the three lost, and the third was lucky to win.
• 1:08:56
  Speaker 2: Really lucky to win. And it was just like, God
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: love the NFL. It's a reminder. that the best team
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 2: and the worst team, they're separated by lists. It's not
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: like in college football that they're separated like this. They're
• 1:09:07
  Speaker 2: separated like this.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 1: I thought of you in Florida because I was driving
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: back from soccer and I'm driving, I'm driving, I'm driving.
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 1: And I'm listening to the updates on the Browns-Bucks game.
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 1: And the Browns, who stink, allegedly, are winning.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 2: And then there's like a tsunami in South Florida or
• 1:09:27
  Speaker 2: in Central Florida. By the way, you want to talk
• 1:09:28
  Speaker 2: about it's like. Wait a minute. We're going to keep
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: this Deshaun Watson thing going for longer? Like, we know
• 1:09:33
  Speaker 2: this is his likely last game. Like, no chance they
• 1:09:36
  Speaker 2: start him in Cleveland, do they? Or now that he
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: won a game, do they? I mean, he won. So
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: I guess you start him in Cleveland?
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: But the game is delayed, like, two hours?
• 1:09:44
  Speaker 2: And, like, it's just— I thought for sure the Bucs
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 2: were going to win that in those last— Of course,
• 1:09:48
  Speaker 2: when they come back. What's the most Browns way to lose?
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: A hundred percent. Having to come back for a three-hour
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 2: delay for the two-minute warning. Right? Yeah. It's weird that
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 2: the Browns didn't lose. You're like, wait a minute. That
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 2: was set up to be the most Browns way of losing.
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 1: And like against Baker Mayfield, who the Browns had given
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: up on.
• 1:10:05
  Speaker 2: Anyway, yes, I agree with you.
• 1:10:07
  Speaker 1: The best thing about it is its unpredictability. I mean,
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: that's the thing that we both– that's the thing. We
• 1:10:12
  Speaker 1: both love sports, but we also like the– College sports
• 1:10:18
  Speaker 1: especially need to be regulated and reformed, but the way
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 1: that they are proposing to do it, I would suggest,
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 1: is not the right way to do it.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: But you also got to– this is the NBA's great
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 2: challenge is because football and even baseball, there's a randomization
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: that can benefit a fan base. Totally. Baseball, it's the playoffs.
• 1:10:39
  Speaker 2: Playoffs are the great equalizer.
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: Or the White Sox can be good out of the blue.
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 2: Do you know what I mean? And the different divisions
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 2: can go in different ways. And you can be a
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: 500 team and make the playoffs if your league is
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 2: beating each other up or whatever. The NBA, you know
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: who the five or six best teams are. Yeah. And
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: it's going to come down to four of those six. Okay. Okay.
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: Maybe it'll depend on which one has an injury. Oh,
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: Jason Tatum got injured, so it won't be the Celtics
• 1:11:05
  Speaker 2: this year. But it wasn't like it was a shock
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 2: that the Knicks and the Spurs were in it.
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 1: The one or two seed almost always wins.
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: And I do think it's why is the NCAA tournament
• 1:11:18
  Speaker 2: so much more fun in basketball? Because of the randomization aspect.
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 2: It is interesting how football and even baseball have an
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: ability to.
• 1:11:30
  Speaker 2: Have different things happen year to year. Basketball, and it's
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 2: probably because there's just fewer. If you have one guy.
• 1:11:37
  Speaker 2: If you have LeBron, you're going to be good for
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 2: a number of years. You're just going to be able
• 1:11:40
  Speaker 2: to keep it going. It's hard to be bad. And
• 1:11:43
  Speaker 2: it really is where one person can keep you relevant
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: longer than- that doesn't work like you can you know
• 1:11:49
  Speaker 2: in the nfl and it doesn't work in baseball and.
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: By the way in the nfl you know nfl what
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 1: we're talking about is that the amount of injuries it's
• 1:11:57
  Speaker 1: like well okay well uh the commander's draft jane daniels
• 1:12:00
  Speaker 1: he's amazing in his first year like well they're gonna
• 1:12:02
  Speaker 1: be good for the extended future well no because he
• 1:12:05
  Speaker 1: gets hurt all the time and it's like it's much
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: less predictable in that regard.
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: And it's funny it's like you know and i've The
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: question is, well, is the NBA regular season too long? Well,
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: the baseball regular season is twice as long. And yet
• 1:12:18
  Speaker 2: I don't feel like– I think the regular season does
• 1:12:21
  Speaker 2: matter to players a lot. And it does– is it
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: a different– way you use your pitching in the playoffs
• 1:12:27
  Speaker 2: than in the regular season. It is, but everything else
• 1:12:29
  Speaker 2: is kind of the same. Yes. And I think about this.
• 1:12:32
  Speaker 2: I don't know what I would do if I were
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 2: the NBA. Is it more seasons in a given year?
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 2: That's something I've thought of. Do you do the champions?
• 1:12:39
  Speaker 1: You have to make it matter more. So how do
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: you solve for making 82 games mattering more?
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 2: And I don't know. They tried it with the mid-season tournament.
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 2: They're trying. I mean, they get the problem. It's just
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 2: they don't have a solution. Do you create more division rival?
• 1:12:54
  Speaker 2: You've basically manufacture more division rivalries. And over, you know,
• 1:12:59
  Speaker 2: the problem there is the NBA really counts on its
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: three or four superstars to produce gate for the rest
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: of the league, right? So that's another issue.
• 1:13:09
  Speaker 1: This doesn't work, but the best solution is what the
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: English Premier League does with relegation and promotion. The bottom
• 1:13:17
  Speaker 1: three go down, but we don't have a second because
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: that keeps, if you're, 20th in the Premier League. Okay,
• 1:13:26
  Speaker 1: if we win, we jump up. It keeps everybody caring.
• 1:13:29
  Speaker 1: We just don't have a second division like that.
• 1:13:32
  Speaker 2: I think really basketball is the only sport that would,
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 2: I think, maybe college football, maybe college football group of six,
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 2: maybe with the FCS.
• 1:13:40
  Speaker 1: Maybe, but I think basketball is ripe for it. The
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: problem is we don't have all the teams beneath are
• 1:13:46
  Speaker 1: affiliated with the pro teams.
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 2: It's interesting with With the expansion to Europe, and if
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 2: we somehow master speedier, I think we both thought, given
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 2: we grew up in an era where the Concorde was
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 2: a thing.
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: Oh, my God. I thought you would be able to
• 1:14:06
  Speaker 1: fly to Australia in five hours by now.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: Correct. Yeah, totally. We haven't cracked that code. Maybe when
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: the NBA develops in NBA Europe, that maybe they start to-
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: I think that would be great, like a second division.
• 1:14:18
  Speaker 2: They might be able to create a second division, and
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 2: then maybe Europe, European teams can play into the top
• 1:14:24
  Speaker 2: league and vice versa, you get dropped. It would certainly.
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: Drive competitiveness throughout the year. I mean, that would, but
• 1:14:30
  Speaker 1: we don't have it.
• 1:14:32
  Speaker 2: It is interesting. They have a long-term challenge that they're
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 2: not really... They're a little afraid to embark upon because
• 1:14:40
  Speaker 2: right now their valuations have never been greater.
• 1:14:42
  Speaker 1: Exactly.
• 1:14:43
  Speaker 2: And they want to strike while the odds are high. Well,
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 2: it's short-term gain, longish-term pain. All right. That's Chuck Todd
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: of the Chuck Toddcast.
• 1:14:51
  Speaker 1: You can follow that three days a week, Spotify, iHeart, Apple, YouTube,
• 1:14:55
  Speaker 1: everywhere you get it.
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 2: Chuck and I do Super Tuesdays every Tuesday. Same thing.
• 1:14:59
  Speaker 1: Get it wherever you get your podcasts. You can check
• 1:15:01
  Speaker 1: us both out on Substack.
• 1:15:02
  Speaker 2: I'm So What.
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 1: Chuck's at Beyond the Pod. Oh, and Dynastic, part of
• 1:15:07
  Speaker 1: the Chuck Todd Extended Universe.
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: Chuck, J.A. Adande talking about great sports franchises, great sporting events,
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 2: the history behind them. It's acquired, but for sports, which
• 1:15:18
  Speaker 2: I love. We've got Alabama fully up. We've got multiple episodes.
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: Paul Feinbaum. We just taped... Our October deep dive. Can
• 1:15:29
  Speaker 2: I have a hint? It's in my backdrop right now.
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 1: So you finally did the deep dive on Bill Clinton.
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 2: No, okay. I will figure it out. I will analyze.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: Does it have to do with Roy Campanella?
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 1: No.
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 2: Damn it. You've already done the Dodgers.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: I knew you had done Dodgers, but I say Campanella
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: right there over your shoulder.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 2: That's right. Campanella is over one shoulder. There's something else
• 1:15:51
  Speaker 2: over the other.
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: Oh, the Green Bay Packers.
• 1:15:55
  Speaker 2: The Green Bay Packers. You can't, the history of the
• 1:15:57
  Speaker 2: NFL begins with the only team that is not owned
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: by some billionaire asshole.
• 1:16:03
  Speaker 1: Collectivist, collectivism run rampant.
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 2: Chuck Todd, Chris Lizzo. Everybody take care. Have a good week.
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: Peace.