Latest / The Chuck ToddCast / Full Episode - Trump Has Become The Entire Election + Trump Screwed The Ag States… Can Democrats Win Them Back?

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Full Episode - Trump Has Become The Entire Election + Trump Screwed The Ag States… Can Democrats Win Them Back? · The Chuck ToddCast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: This episode of the Chuck Todd cast is brought to
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: you by Chapter. Now, almost everything you hear about Medicare
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: is somebody quietly trying to steer you somewhere. And you're
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: skeptical of that, as you should be. I get it.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's a federal lawsuit going on right now.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: over exactly this, companies that branded themselves as unbiased while
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: allegedly pointing people toward whatever would pay them the most
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: as some sort of broker. So if your default is
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to distrust everyone in this space, honestly, I get it.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: I'm a bit distrustful these days myself. That's the whole
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: reason I want to tell you about Chapter. They're independent
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Medicare advisors whose entire model is that their advisors are
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: not paid to push any one plan. They're just trying
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: to help. Yes, there's compensation that goes with it, but
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: it's across the board is what they're trying to do.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: At the end of the day, they're advocating for you.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: They're not the insurance companies themselves. They're an actual person
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: who actually goes through your doctors, your prescriptions, your needs,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: and then compares them to every single plan available to
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: find the best one that will work for you and
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: hopefully save you a couple of dollars too. And here's
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: the part that sets chapter apart. They don't disappear once
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: you've been enrolled. They will keep advocating for you. They're
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: kind of like almost like a concierge service. You're just there.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: I need help. You're like customer service. The plan, help
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: me navigate this again. So you ever get hit with
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: a wrongful medical bill, they'll help you fight it. They
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: want to stay an advocate for you even after you've
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: done this. So look, I get it. I think there's
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: all sorts of space. You see a lot of people
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: are throwing themselves in this health care space. What I
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: like about these chapter folks, I've spent time with them.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: This is a very transparent organization. It is Medicare and
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: all of its affiliated stuff can be very confusing. The
• 1:53
  Speaker 1: whole point of this is to make this easier and
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: less confusing. OK, so look, take the skepticism you already
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: have in all of this, point it at your own
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: plan for 20 minutes. It's free. There's no pressure. And
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: then call chapter. today at 980-734-3985. Hello there, happy Monday,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Toddcast. I
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: am coming to you from St. Louis, Missouri. I've been
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: here over the weekend for a family gathering, always a
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: wonderful way to catch up with people, no matter what
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: the event may or may not be. Let me give
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: you a quick little preview of today's episode. My guest
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: is the former Secretary of Agriculture and former two-term governor
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: of Iowa, Tom Vilsack. But primarily, we spend time on
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: just how the agricultural industry has been changed and targeted
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: by these tariffs, by what's happening with ground beef. And yes,
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: this was the news story of a couple of weeks ago.
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  Speaker 1: But just because you report on something a couple of
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: weeks ago doesn't mean it's still having a huge impact
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: right now. So I just thought it was worthy. I
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  Speaker 1: know I want to get better educated on this industry.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: And what better way than somebody who is the second
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: longest serving secretary of agriculture? We, of course, talk a
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: little bit of Iowa politics at the end in his take.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: And it's very interesting.
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  Speaker 2: He is.
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  Speaker 1: I will just say he offers a more sober take
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: about the state of things in Iowa than perhaps some
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: of the happy talk and the hopium that that some
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: are ingesting. in some key offices in Washington, D.C. That's that.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: A few other housekeeping items. My interview this week on
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Newsphere is with the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Michigan,
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  Speaker 1: Abdul El-Sayed. While interviewing him is not a coup anymore,
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: meaning he does a lot of interviews, I did try
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: to focus ours on a topic that he's not been
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: questioned about very much, what he's actually going to do
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: in the United States Senate. It's one thing we, I
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: think we all know where he stands. We all know
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: many of the issues he stands. The question is, how
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: is he going to use that platform? What does he
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: believe that platform is for? And it's fascinating, you know,
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  Speaker 1: as I've said in shorthand about him, I don't think
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  Speaker 1: he's running to become the future chair of the Senate
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: Banking Committee or the Senate Commerce Committee. Whether he ends
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: up as that anyway, I'm not saying he doesn't want
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: to end up as that someday, but we know how
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: the seniority system works. But he's interested in making the
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: Senate a more active body. And I will tell you,
• 4:44
  Speaker 1: I have had there and I even invoke this with him.
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  Speaker 1: I have had plenty of incoming senators claim they are
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  Speaker 1: going to change the way the Senate works and force
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  Speaker 1: some forced deliberation in the world's most deliberative body and
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: things like that. And the Senate has a way of
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: stifling that. But I want you to stew on this
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  Speaker 1: one image with Abdul El-Sayed, because in some ways he
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  Speaker 1: strikes me very similarly, not in ideology or anything like that,
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: and not necessarily even in personality. But this is how
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: Mike Lee and Ted Cruz had viewed the Senate when
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: they came in. And their own party hated it and
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: others hated it, meaning they were constantly trying to make
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: the Senate a more active body, whether it was using
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: it for shutdowns, using it for different votes. And I
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  Speaker 1: think Abdul El-Sayed sees the operations of the Senate as
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  Speaker 1: an opportunity to talk about issues and force issues to
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  Speaker 1: the front, force debate on issues. I think some people
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: are going to love that. And I can tell you,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: United States senators hate it. So it's just going to
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  Speaker 1: be fascinating if he ends up getting there. And of course,
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  Speaker 1: we still got a month to go to get there.
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  Speaker 1: But that was the I've been digesting the conversation. And
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  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be interesting. I think he
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  Speaker 1: wants to force votes. I think he wants to force conversations.
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  Speaker 1: and put it in a public forum as a free
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  Speaker 1: speech democracy guy, as somebody who believes in pluralism and
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  Speaker 1: wants to see these conversations out in the open, I
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  Speaker 1: think it can be quite healthy. But it doesn't always
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  Speaker 1: work out the way those who have an idealistic version
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  Speaker 1: of this want it to be. So we'll see if
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  Speaker 1: it happens, right? We've got a long way to go
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  Speaker 1: before November 3rd. But I definitely think... whatever your views
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  Speaker 1: are about him, I'd like to think we went to
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  Speaker 1: some new territory when it comes to that race and
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: when it comes to that candidate. Hey, before we get
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: back into it, I want to give you a quick
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: word on something I'm involved in, and I'm pretty excited
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: about it. On October 22nd and 23rd, I'm going to
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: be hosting NextPredict in New York City. It's the world's
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: largest prediction markets conference. Two days... two weeks out from
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: the midterms with the exchanges, the traders, and the regulators
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: all in one room, right? So if you want to
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: try to understand what is this industry, where is it headed?
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  Speaker 1: What does it mean? Well, next predict, this is going
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: to be the place to be. So like I said,
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: I'm going to be hosting quite a few panels. I'm
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  Speaker 1: involved with this project. Registration is at nextpredict.io. That's N-E-X-T-P-R-E-D-I-C-T
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: dot I-O, nextpredict.io. If you want to try to understand
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the prediction markets, not as something to participate in, but
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: more as what is this industry? Where is it headed?
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: What is it about? How will it be regulated? All
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: of those things. That's what this conference is about. So
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: take a look. All right. Let me dig in here
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  Speaker 1: a little bit and let's start with what my focus
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: has been this weekend and what I've been thinking about
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: and what I think we all ought to be thinking
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: about going forward. And of course, it starts with the president, right? Look,
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: he is the focal point of this entire election season, right?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: If everything is in his hands, right? If the Republicans
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: have a disaster, it's Donald Trump's fault. And if they
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: somehow mitigate this, that means he's done something. He's pulled
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: a rabbit out of his hat. But it was interesting
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: to watch Donald Trump this weekend because I think it
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  Speaker 1: was quite revealing. He spent Saturday at a college football
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: game and he spent Sunday at a golf tournament. Really?
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: Glad he's enjoying himself because a whole lot of Americans
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: are not enjoying much of anything about this economy right now.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: Everything is harder at the moment. Gas is more expensive.
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Electricity is more expensive. Groceries are more expensive. Good luck
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: getting a loan to buy a house at the moment.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Mortgage rates suck for first-time homebuyers, let alone anybody searching
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: for a home. We're seven months into a war with
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  Speaker 1: Iran that has helped push the national average for gas
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: to about $ 4. 50. We're going to creep towards $ 7 a
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: gallon on diesel. Look for it now. Careful. It's all
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: due to the disruptions. A choice, right? A choice. Remember,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: why is the Strait of Hormuz blocked? Because this administration
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: ignored their own warnings about how the Iranians would respond. Remember,
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  Speaker 1: we're having to negotiate over something that wasn't an issue
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: before we started this war. The blockage of the Strait
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: of Hormuz, right? This was supposed to be about their
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: nuclear arsenal. And now it's about preventing a global energy crisis. Again,
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: war of choice. So by all means, Mr. President, I
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: hope you enjoyed the football game. I hope you enjoyed
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: the golf tournament. I know you're obsessed with still trying
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: to make people love you, and we're going to get
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: to that in your weird cult ads here in a minute.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: But it's interesting with him. I think he's kind of
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: in grasping mode, and this is why He keeps trying
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: to play the hits, and he's obsessed with just finding
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: any audience possible that might not boo him. College football
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: fans skew a bit Republican. He thought, oh, I'm in
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: a red state like Tennessee. This is Tennessee and Texas.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: Maybe I won't get booed there. Golf tournament, golf skews
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: really Republican. Maybe he won't get booed there. He's just
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: desperate not to feel how unpopular he's become in the
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: moment and how much he is the scourge inside his
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: own party. Republicans are running away from him. Every day
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: there's a new story about a Republican trying to run
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: away from him. So he's looking for a blankie. To
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: put it in those terms, he's clinging for something, anything
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: to make himself feel better.
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: He's clearly got this massive self-esteem issue and that's had
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: it pretty much his whole adult life. But he's clearly
• 11:06
  Speaker 1: right now desperate to recreate the feeling that he had
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: at the height of his poverty. Right. When you could
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: go to a big crowd and there was there was yeah,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: there were boos, but there was he felt he only
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: heard the cheers.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: Go to a big event. And he like forced him
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: like like when he like forced himself into the celebration
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of the World Cup. Right. He's just looking for any
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: moments he can find where everybody gets to look at
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: him and he gets to pretend that cheering might be
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: about him. Even when seven times out of 10, it's not.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: But he always wants to be in the middle of
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: the spectacles of the rest of America's joints. And it's
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: really frustrating because, frankly, you want to say, dude, just
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: read a room, will you? Leave us all alone. If
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: you actually stayed quiet, you might mitigate some of your
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: political problems. But he can't help himself. And you would say, ah,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: the sporting events, eh, whatever. He's going to do what
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: he's going to do. But I have to tell you,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: I think these are politically just beyond dumb, right? And
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: the timing of this particular weekend was, to me, comically
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: out of touch, okay? Because Saturday morning, before heading off,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: to enjoy the football game. Trump announced that he had
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: rejected Iran's latest proposal for ending the fighting, even temporarily,
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Now, I'll be fair,
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: this wasn't Iran, wasn't offering unconditional surrender with their offer.
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: It was far from it. But it was an interesting
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: exit ramp that the public is begging him to take,
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: and he refused to take it. Iran's seven-point proposal included
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: some things that were workable, but literally a seven-day ceasefire.
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: They were offering to talk. Now, they wanted money to
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: go with the ceasefire, a release of $ 12 billion in
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: frozen Iranian assets. I have no doubt we're not ready
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: for that. They wanted immediate sanctions relief on Iranian oil
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: and an end to the native blockade. But they made
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: an offer. And instead of rejecting it, don't you counter?
• 12:59
  Speaker 1: And don't you give off a little bit of hope
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: that maybe we can cease this at some point? Now,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: at the end of seven days, Iran promised they would
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: reopen the straitens. And then they would be open to
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: negotiations over the future of their nuclear program. Now, again,
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: not everything in there that they're offering is trustworthy. And
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: so I'm not saying that. But Trump just rejected it
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: out of hand. Now, what the administration wants to believe
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: is that, oh, Iran's desperate. And maybe they are. Okay,
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: maybe the blockade is working. Maybe Tehran thinks the midterm
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: elections and rising gas prices will force Trump to blink, right?
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: And the administration doesn't want to look like that they're
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: letting politics impact their decision making. Now, somehow the administration
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: continues to try to say Trump holds all the cards. Well,
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: if he held all the cards, why would we be
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: here in the first place? I mean, these anonymous officials
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: that Fox News quotes, right, for the State Department, oh,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: the president holds all the cards. You can think that
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: all you want, buddy. But there is no evidence that
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: You may hold cards, but I think they're like two
• 14:09
  Speaker 1: of clubs, three of diamonds. They are. And there is
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: nothing that's nothing on the flop that's anywhere close to
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: a winning hand. And look, we've heard. We've heard variations
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: of this before. The other guy's about to fold. The
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: sanctions are about to break them. The regime is weaker
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: than anybody realizes. Trump's personal leverage is going to produce
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: a deal nobody else could get because he's Donald Trump.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: And look at all these great deals for the American
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: economy he's already done. Oh, right. Yeah. Just give it
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: a little more time. Well, forgive me if I'm not
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: ready to take this one to the bank, right? Look,
• 14:45
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump's record of predicting what his adversaries are about
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: to do is nowhere near perfect. And if his calculation
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: is that Iran is so weakened internally that another turn
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: of the screw is going to produce a dramatically better
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: deal or perhaps even some kind of internal collapse, Well,
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: that's quite a bet. It's the bet he continues to make.
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: It's the bet he made when they took out the Ayatollah.
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: They keep making this bet. They keep misreading the Iranians
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: left and right. And obviously, you can't really trust this
• 15:18
  Speaker 1: gang to know what they're doing because they didn't apparently
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: see closing the Strait of Hormuz coming. When they pick
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: this fight and they let Israel talk America into doing this,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: doing this military intervention that is now making the Iraq
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: war look like a smart decision. So we've been here
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: a million times. Now it's interesting to me that on
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Sunday morning, what did the president do? And I think
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: this is what the next couple of weeks are going
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: to look like for what it's worth. Now he tells Axios,
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: Oh no, no, no. We expect to talk. And it's
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: always convenient. It's always somewhere on Sunday that that happens, right?
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: Because he's trying to impact the markets, right? He wants
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: to jawbone down. So just maybe he can prevent $ 7 diesel.
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: If he can keep it at 665, right? He'll feel
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: like this is, this is a win. Um, But it
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: is just the optics of this whole thing. And again,
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: he keeps saying, you know, maybe it's coming, maybe it's
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: coming and this is going to be a win. Well,
• 16:17
  Speaker 1: there's a big price for being wrong on this. It's
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: a price being paid by people who aren't getting to
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: sit in those luxury boxes at Neyland Stadium in Knoxville.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: And the administration is finally acknowledging the fact that their
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: war is causing economic pain. Marco Rubio says the economic
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: cost is real. Now he argues that the cost of
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: allowing Iran to eventually obtain a nuclear weapon would be
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: much greater. Okay, fine, that's the argument. I thought you
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: guys blew this up twice. So what the hell is
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: America supposed to believe? I thought we blew up the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: nuclear facilities in July of 2025. then I thought we
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: did it again in the first part of this war.
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: Is the planning for this effort so bad that you
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: still haven't done it? All of this pain that the
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: world has experienced in this economy and Iran's still got
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: an active nuclear program that apparently we've been able to
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: do very little about, is that the argument that's being made?
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: Or are you still trying or have we done destroyed
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: and set them back? And yet we're still trying to
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: rationalize and justifies what we're doing because they shut the
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: straight in a strategic blunder that this administration didn't see coming.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: And I just this argument about the nuclear facilities and
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: the nuclear weapon. Is just fear mongering at its worst. Again,
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: you keep talking. You told us it was obliterated. Are
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: you lying then or are you lying now? We're all
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: paying the cost for it right now. But here's where
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: Trump's political problems and this Iran problem are colliding. We
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: got yet another high quality national poll. This one from
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: the Wall Street Journal, which modeled its poll when NBC
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: and Wall Street Journal split up the partnership. They knew
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: that the poll model we had developed, that Al Hunt
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: and Tim Russert had developed, was the correct model to
• 18:26
  Speaker 1: do a national poll, get leading pollsters from both parties
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: to put together. And the Wall Street Journal did a
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: good job of finding the second best Democratic pollster they
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: could find and the second best Republican pollster they could find.
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: It's a little wink and a nod there. Point is,
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: they now have the president with a lower job approval
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: rating than the NBC poll found last week. Wall Street
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: Journal has him at 37%. The Wall Street Journal. Guess
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: who conducts this poll? The president's pollster. Anyway, keep that
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: in mind. 61% disapprove. Now, maybe that's why he needs
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: to be at a football game. He needs his blankie.
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: attempt around Trump to manufacture the old feeling for him, right?
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: He is like an old man, desperate for nostalgia in
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: the good old days, or at least the good old
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: days that he'd manufactured in his head, right? He wants
• 19:23
  Speaker 1: his old mojo, his old crowds, the cheers. And if
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: you think I'm overstating his desire for adulation, can I
• 19:32
  Speaker 1: introduce you to perhaps the strangest government-funded television advertisement I've
• 19:36
  Speaker 1: ever seen? It's essentially a Donald Trump cult commercial. I
• 19:42
  Speaker 1: wouldn't call it a campaign commercial. It's cultish. It's on
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: a level I've never seen in a democracy. This is...
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: Reverend Sung Young-Loon shit. It's weird shit, okay? Or as
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: George W. Bush said at the first Trump inaugural, that
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: was some strange shit, right? That's what this ad is.
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: It's paid for by the government, which in and of
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: itself is illegal, should be investigated. But it's weird, okay?
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: It's images of Trump flashing across the screen. His supposed
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: accomplishments appear in giant letters. They have Dana White from
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: a rally that he did talking how tough Trump is.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I'm just curious. with this garbage do you i mean
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: the ufc is a growing brand you really want to
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: attach your brand this closely to him i'm curious how
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: he feels about being um showcased in this but underneath
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: all of it is a song that repeatedly just says
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: the following two words love me love me love me
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: i'm sitting here i you know you think Did AI hallucinate?
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: Are we really having a sitting president manufacture ads like this?
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And at the end, it says paid for by the U.S.
• 21:09
  Speaker 2: Government.
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: So what exactly is it? Well, let's just say a
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: lot of inquiring minds have wanted to know. So the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: White House is simply calling it a public service announcement.
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: For what? A PSA for what? Register to vote? Donald
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: Trump's self-esteem? Hey, your president is feeling very fragile at
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: the moment and you need to make him feel better.
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: So love him. Is that the PSA? We're using taxpayer
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: dollars to make the president feel better about himself because
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: his presidency is an historic disaster. And this is going
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: to be seen as one of the great historic mistakes
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: in American history. It's strange, man. Hey, this episode of
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  Speaker 1: of these folks that are still left that manage Trump,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: that have made the decision. They're in for a dime,
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: in for a dollar. And there's this attempt to just
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: try to make them just, you know, let the old
• 23:45
  Speaker 1: man have this, you know, let him do this. Let's
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: just make the ad. We'll use this PSA dollars. Maybe
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: people won't notice. He'll see it and it'll make them
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: feel better. Well, then people noticed and we're all going,
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: what the F is this? How sick is this? And look,
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: there's serious, legit questions about whether the federal government ought
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: to be buying television and everything that looks remotely like
• 24:11
  Speaker 1: this kind of weird propaganda. But again, to call it
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: campaign propaganda undersells the cult-like bizarreness of this thing. Can
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: you imagine somebody sitting at their kitchen table trying to
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: figure out how to pay the electric bill who sees
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: 12 pictures of Donald Trump and somebody sings Love Me
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: and thinks, you know what, oh. My love for him
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: means I will pay gladly more money for this electric
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: bill for his data center obsession. And I'll gladly pay
• 24:42
  Speaker 1: more money for his blunder in the Iran war. Think
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: about this. Like I said, this feels North Korea-ish. This
• 24:52
  Speaker 1: entire thing feels increasingly disconnected from the country Trump is
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: actually governing. People are frustrated. They think everything costs too much.
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: We're fighting a war that was supposed to demonstrate American strength.
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: And seven months later, we're still fighting it. We don't
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: have enough munitions, apparently. Gas is around four and a
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: half dollars. And the president's political response to this moment
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: where he is the walking disaster for his party seems
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: to be, put me on television. Put me at a
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: football game. Put me at a golf tournament. Let's tell
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: everybody to love me. Oh, by the way, put me
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: in the campaign trail because I'm just, you know, only
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: I can do this. Now, it's funny. It goes to,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: like I said, there's clearly a group of folks in
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: the White House that say, all right, let's appease the
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: crazy old man. By the way, my time machine today
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: is about what do you do when you don't know
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: whether you've got a president that's all there. But we're
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: going to get to that. So they're trying to appease him, right?
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: He wants to be relevant on the campaign trail. He
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: wants to hold rallies. And there's a lot of red
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: states that, in theory, if he could get his voters out,
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: they'd be helpful. Do they send him to Iowa? No,
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Ashley Hinson doesn't even want to be seen next to J.D. Vance.
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Do they send him to Florida? Byron Donald scrubbed Donald
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Trump from his website. Do you send him to Texas? Well,
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: we know what's going on in Texas, right? And they
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: already sent him to Texas. That didn't go so hot
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: with this midterm convention. Did they send him to Ohio? Nobody.
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: Nobody wants him there in Ohio. So they've set up
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: rallies for him in Oklahoma and Alabama. And again, this
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: goes back to nostalgia brain. And it might be nostalgia
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: brain rot in Trump's head at the moment. Why do
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma and Alabama feel familiar? Well, Alabama was the site
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: of his sort of first big rally in Mobile. I
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: remember we covered it quite thoroughly when I was at
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: Meet the Press at the time back in 2015. And
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: it was a remarkable rally and how many people showed
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: up in a state that really wasn't. So he wants
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: to go to Mobile where, again, the first time he
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: felt the feeling. So he's desperate to recreate the feeling.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: And then Oklahoma. I remember Oklahoma was one of the
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: few places he went during COVID. He was desperate to
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: have a political rally. I think that's where Herman Cain
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: caught COVID and died, reportedly. So... Again, there's this group
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: of folks trying to make him feel better.
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: That's why they just look the other way with this
• 27:26
  Speaker 1: Natalie Hart business. That's why they look the other way
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: with this weird ramblings about auto pens and embarrassing the
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: country and his own party in front of front of
• 27:36
  Speaker 1: the head of the Chinese Communist Party. I mean, it's
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: some weird stuff, right? We're weeks away from a midterm
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: election with Republican Senate candidates fighting for their lives across
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: the map, and Donald Trump's next big rallies are in
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: Oklahoma and Alabama because nobody else wants him anywhere. Trust me,
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: if he set up a shop in Iowa, I think
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: some of the Republican candidates would protest themselves. By the way,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: the Democratic equivalent of sending Trump to Oklahoma and Alabama
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: is essentially, it would have been like sending Biden to
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: Delaware and Vermont. You want to make the president feel
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: like he's relevant? Sure. Call it a turnout rally, right?
• 28:22
  Speaker 1: This is an attempt to both make him feel better
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: and hide him in place inside, right? Give him his rally.
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: in a place that he can't do any damage on.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Although there's now the governor's race in Alabama with the
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: weird furry comments and conspiracies that Tommy Tupperville is doing.
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: And I'm sure Doug Jones would be like, please, Donald Trump,
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: go rally with Tommy Tupperville. But anyway, give him a rally,
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: give him a crowd, give him an applause, make him
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: feel important and relevant, boost his self-esteem because they're fearful
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: of a Donald Trump who actually realizes how unpopular he is.
• 28:57
  Speaker 1: Because nobody knows how he'll behave. But it's pretty clear.
• 29:02
  Speaker 1: Nobody wants him next to any actual Republican candidates in
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: a tough race. And they're not putting him anywhere near
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: any red state that's remotely flippable at the moment. And
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: if you think I'm being overly cynical about the political
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: environment Republicans are confronting, why don't you listen to Republicans
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: themselves and what they were saying over the last few days?
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: While Trump was making his sports tour, the National Republican
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Senate Committee was holding a big donor retreat on Sea
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: Island in Georgia. It's one of the more popular places
• 29:32
  Speaker 1: on the right side of the aisle to hold there.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: If Democrats do retreats in the Hampton and Martha's Vineyard,
• 29:41
  Speaker 1: Republicans usually do it off of Sea Island. A Republican
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: pollster got up and suggested Republicans could actually pick up
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: Senate seats in November. And six months ago, that wouldn't
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: have been a laughable comment, right? But according to Axios,
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: the reaction from some people in the room ranged from
• 29:58
  Speaker 1: seriously to outright laughter. One attendee described the presentation afterward
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: with one word as delusional. Another said the mood is
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: not good. Look, clearly this was about somebody, you know,
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: put somebody who's a Trump apologist up there to do
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: a preview to give everybody some positive spin. And sure,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: there's a 15% chance this guy's right. There was a
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: chance that Texas A & M could have beaten LSU
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: on Saturday. There was a chance Central Michigan could have
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: beaten Miami on Saturday. That's pretty much where we're at
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: at the moment. And apparently Republicans were walking around, according
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: to Axios, sarcastically telling each other, hey, we're winning. Everything's good.
• 30:48
  Speaker 1: And it may be funny, but it's pretty revealing, right?
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: Because these people aren't stupid. They're actually talking to voters.
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: They're actually reading their own polls and they can see
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: a map. The NRC is asking donors for another $ 9
• 30:58
  Speaker 1: million to help Republican Senate candidates in the deep blue
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: states of Alaska, Iowa, and Ohio. And they're about to
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: pick up a Senate.
• 31:06
  Speaker 2: Seat, right?
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Like one message is we're desperate for help over here.
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: The other message is, hey, we can pick up a seat.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: According to Axios, the increasingly competitive Texas Senate race wasn't
• 31:17
  Speaker 1: even discussed at the retreat. Don't bring up bad news, right?
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: So think about what we're having here, right? There's sort
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: of two realities that Republicans are living in at the moment.
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: You have two Republican campaigns happening simultaneously, a very public one.
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: Everything is great. And it's really just about making sure
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump doesn't say stupid stuff and hurt the party, right?
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: Trump has all the cards. He's going to do great.
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: Republicans are going to win. The economy is going to boom.
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: Gas prices will come down. Iran's about to crack. Just
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: wait and see, right? And then there's the campaign that
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: like John Thune and sort of sober Republicans are actually
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: running and aware of. Emergency money for Alaska, emergency money
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: for Iowa. Emergency money for Ohio. John Thune telling senators, hey,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: you do what you got to do to survive. Republican
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: candidates figuring out when they need to separate themselves from Trump, right?
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: So it actually gets me to an interesting observation that
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: my old friend Charlie Cook made with his most recent column,
• 32:17
  Speaker 1: which I think he just nailed something. And it's, you know,
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: this is Charlie. This guy's been doing it longer than
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: I've been doing it. And I think he made the
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: most correct observation about what we're watching with this election.
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: This isn't a blue wave election. He called it a
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: red undertow. And there's a lot of support for this
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: because his argument was blue wave would suggest that voters
• 32:43
  Speaker 1: have suddenly fallen in love with Democrats. That they have not.
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: The Democratic brand remains damaged. Last week, I shared you
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: that poll that the Democrats were more unpopular than the Republicans.
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: All right. So they're not embracing Democrats. They're punishing Republicans
• 32:59
  Speaker 1: because they're the party in power. And in many of
• 33:02
  Speaker 1: these red states, they've been in power a half generation
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: or longer, if you look at a Texas. And I
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: think red undertow and you've seen the Nate Silver post
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: where Democrats seem to be doing even better in red
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: states than they are in blue states. That things are
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: slightly more competitive for them in blue states. where Republicans
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: look in striking distance in Minnesota or in New Hampshire
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: or I guess you could call Michigan a blue state
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: or do you count it as a swing state given
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: that Republicans haven't won a Senate seat there since 1994?
• 33:38
  Speaker 1: It feels like a blue tint to its purple nature
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: a little bit there. But I think red undertow is
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: a much better description. And it could be a massive undertow, right,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: that literally drowns the party. And an undertow doesn't necessarily
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: look dramatic from the shore either, right? It keeps pulling
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: things out to sea. You can see Republican senators beginning
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: to feel it. Susan Collins is desperate for her bipartisan
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: insolent bill to be brought to the floor. How the
• 34:07
  Speaker 1: hell did they not do this sooner?
• 34:09
  Speaker 2: I mean.
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: The Senate Republicans, because Trump forced them and Mike Lee
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: forced them into this obsession over the over rigging the
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: federalizing the national elections, because that's what the SAVE Act
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: was about, was about nationalizing elections and essentially taking away
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: credibility of the election process from the states.
• 34:26
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: But the obsession over that cost them time to get
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: a bipartisan bill that might have given Susan Collins something
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: to run on. John Husted, who's the appointed senator in Ohio,
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: he's desperate for a vote on a bill that he
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: introduced that he says would protect consumers from higher electricity
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: costs associated with data centers. He's desperate to look like
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: he wants to do something against data centers. Republicans in general,
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: you would think, would be desperate to do this because
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: they're owning this. Ron Johnson. He's the one championing the
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: bill that would ban members of Congress from trading stocks.
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: How is it that this, everybody says they're for banning
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: stock trading in Congress and yet nobody can seem to
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: pass this bill? Again, something the Republicans now own because
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: they have both houses of Congress. So these are Republicans
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: begging their leadership. Give me something I can go home
• 35:16
  Speaker 1: and talk about that has some relationship to the things
• 35:20
  Speaker 1: that voters actually are upset about. Affordability, electric bills, corruption.
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: And in this last week, what has the United States
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: Senate been spending its time on? College sports. It's so
• 35:34
  Speaker 1: strange that they're literally pushing so hard between college sports,
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: crypto a couple of weeks ago. They're nowhere near where
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: the public is.
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: And look, I'm not going to belabor where I'm at.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: You know how I think this sports. Here's the irony.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: They're spending all this time on a bill that is
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: never going to get through the courts. So it's an
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: even bigger waste of time. This is the political environment
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: as we're headed into this final stretch. Which brings me,
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: I want to transition to a race that I think
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: illustrates something else that's happening underneath the surface of this election.
• 36:10
  Speaker 1: And an acknowledgement by a Democrat that this is a,
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: in Charlie Cook's words, a red undertow election. This is
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: not a blue wave election. Because while Republicans are trying
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: to figure out how to survive this undertow, there's a
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: Democrat in Texas who's doing something that I think the
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: party ought to be studying very carefully. We spend a
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: lot of time talking about a certain Texas race. Well,
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: that's not the race I want to talk about. I
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: want to talk about the governor's race. I want to
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: talk about a Democratic candidate who's probably running the most interesting,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: tactically the most interesting campaign in the country. Her name's
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: Gina Hinojosa. She's been on this podcast. You've heard me
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: talk about this race before. But I want to start
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: with her newest television ad. And if you guys haven't
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: seen it, make time to see it.
• 36:56
  Speaker 2: Okay?
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: She's a new ad that features a woman named Lynn Davenport. Now,
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: Linda Davenport is not just simply some suburban Republican who
• 37:05
  Speaker 1: voted for Nikki Haley and now considers herself politically homeless.
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: She begins the ad by telling people that she was
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: at the January 6th rally. She's a January 6th. She
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: believed the 2020 election was stolen. She calls herself a
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: staunch conservative. And she's appearing in an advertisement for the
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: Democratic candidate for governor in Texas, saying she just cannot
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: vote for Greg Abbott. And why can't she vote for?
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: Because of schools, because of the voucher program, because of
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: data centers, because of the way corporations have easy access to.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: The sense that Abbott is listening to donors first rather
• 37:44
  Speaker 1: than the people in communities like hers. And he knows
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: is not hiding from who Davenport is. She's going out
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: of her way to highlight it. At the Texas Tribune
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: Festival last week, she put it this way. Look, she
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: voted for President Trump. And she rides hard for me.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: That's how Inosa put it, right? Think about that sentence.
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: Because what I think Gina Inosa may be running is
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: literally the smartest campaign in red America right now. She's
• 38:12
  Speaker 1: essentially telling Texas, look, I'm not asking you to become
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: a Democrat to support me. That's not what this is about.
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: In fact, she said almost exactly that at the trip fest.
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: I'm not asking voters to trust Democrats. It's hard enough
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: to get people to trust me. But that's what she's doing.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: She's saying, look, don't worry about the brand I'm associated with.
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: I know it's a shit brand. She doesn't say it
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: that way. I will. I know you don't trust the Democrats.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: But try to trust me and hear the promises I'm
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: going to make. And what's interesting is that she's refusing
• 38:44
  Speaker 1: to run the campaign Republicans were hoping she would run. Frankly,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: she's refusing to run the campaign that many Democrats have
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: run in Texas and lost. Wendy Davis. got crushed running
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: the campaign that many progressive Democrats were cheering on. Even
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: Beto O'Rourke ran a campaign that was more focused on
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: national Democrats than it was on Texans, right? Now, look,
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: you know, Osa's very liberal. She's from Austin, right? She
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: spent a decade as one of the more liberal members
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: of the Texas House. She even co-chaired the Progressive Caucus.
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: But she doesn't particularly want the label progressive because she
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: says it's become associated with cultural issues that just aren't
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: what she's running on. So she calls herself a populist now.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: And when she was. asked about which conservative policy victories
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: in Texas she'd like to reverse as governor, you know
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: what she told the Tribune Festival interviewer? Look at the legislature.
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: Democrats aren't taking it over. She goes, I live in reality.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: And she was basically pledging, look, she's not going to
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: take on every culture fight that the national left has
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: been complaining about with Texas for a while. She's simply
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: meeting voters where they are in the moment. That's what
• 40:00
  Speaker 1: a politician who wants to win does, not a politician
• 40:03
  Speaker 1: who wants to make a point. Remember the TV show
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: I've been quoting quite a bit, do you want to
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: win or do you want to fight? Well, you know,
• 40:10
  Speaker 1: this has been fighting for a long time. She's making
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: the choice to win. I don't know if she's going
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: to win, but she's trying to win. She's not just
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: trying to have a fight and raise a bunch of
• 40:22
  Speaker 1: money from people that don't live in the state of Texas. Now,
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: she's not pretending. She suddenly changed all of her beliefs.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: She's saying, those aren't the things I'm running for governor
• 40:35
  Speaker 1: to spend my time fighting about. She's running on schools.
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: She's running against vouchers, which rural conservatives have just seen.
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: It's been a disaster for public schools. By the way,
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: these anecdotes, the state budget cuts have been irritating many
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: conservative voters on some things that matter a lot to
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: many rural communities. So, for instance, there's no more, you know,
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: how important high school football is. Well, guess what else
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: is important to high school football? The pageantry. So, cheerleaders
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: in band. But now, a lot of schools... can't afford
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: to send cheerleaders or bands to away games anymore so
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: there's this there's gone is the competition gone is all
• 41:16
  Speaker 1: of that all this is what greg abbott has done
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: his policies have actually damaged what many conservative texans loved
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: about the passion of high school football Hey, you know
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  Speaker 1: dot com slash chuck. This is why this voucher program
• 43:38
  Speaker 1: is just such a disaster. Everywhere where Republicans have gone
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: down this road, it's backfired on them everywhere. It backfired
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: in Kansas. It's backfiring in the moment in Iowa. That's
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: what's powering Rob Sand more than anything else is the
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: disastrous education policies that Reynolds pursued. And this is what
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: has gotten rural voters in Kansas and Iowa and Texas going,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of things I like and
• 44:09
  Speaker 1: I'll vote that way nationally and federal races, but I
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: want some investment in public schools. Sometimes you don't get
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: a choice in rural America. But look, she's running on
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: data centers too and electricity prices and all of those things.
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: And she's running against corporate power, which Abbott has been
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: flexing until suddenly he realizes it's a bad look. And
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: she's trying to find issues where a Democratic voter in Austin,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: a Latino Trump voter in South Texas, and a MAGA
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: mom in a rural school district might actually all agree on.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: What's interesting here is that I'm impressed that so far,
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: the professional left, if you will, right, the ecosystem of
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: left-wingers that like to pounce on any member of the
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: press or any member of the media that doesn't you know,
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: that somehow pushes back on the issues they care about.
• 45:02
  Speaker 1: But the Democratic left is giving her room to do it.
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know if a Democratic candidate for governor in Massachusetts,
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: New York, or California could make those pledges. Could they
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: tell Democratic interest groups in those states, I agree with
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: you on a bunch of these issues, but I'm not
• 45:17
  Speaker 1: going to spend my entire campaign relitigating every cultural fight
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: because I need voters who disagree with you on some
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: of them. I don't know. I think it would be
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: a lot harder. What I'm impressed here is Hinojosa seems
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: to understand something pretty basic. Texas hasn't elected a Democrat
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: statewide in more than 30 years. The assignment isn't to
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: assemble the perfect Democratic coalition. The assignment is to find 50%
• 45:40
  Speaker 1: plus one to go win in our race. Go find
• 45:43
  Speaker 1: the fulcrum. You know my view on this. Every state
• 45:45
  Speaker 1: has a 50% fulcrum. It's on the campaign to figure
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: it out. And and you're not going to win in
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: Texas for governor if you don't have some Trump voters
• 45:55
  Speaker 1: as part of your coalition. And to, you know, the
• 45:58
  Speaker 1: permission slip.
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: This TV ad by Linda Avenport to say I was
• 46:01
  Speaker 1: at the January 6th rally. That's a permission slip structure. Right.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: That is an attempt by saying, hey, look. Voting for
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: Hinojosa doesn't mean you're all of a sudden a Democrat.
• 46:14
  Speaker 1: If you think Abbott has just been in there too long,
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: that he's basically captured by donors, which is, I think,
• 46:22
  Speaker 1: the most reasonable case against Abbott is he's been there
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: too long, he's gotten too comfortable, and he seems to
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: care more about how big his war chest is than
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: whether he's going to get anything done in Texas. And
• 46:32
  Speaker 1: he seems to pursue ideological goals rather than just simply
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: what's in the best interest of Texas. And that's a classic,
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: you know, fatigue. It's actually a classic fatigue campaign when
• 46:46
  Speaker 1: you're running against an entrenched incumbent like that. So we'll see.
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: I don't know if she can win, but we know
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: this is going to be a very, very close race.
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: And I think that it is, you want to know,
• 47:02
  Speaker 1: you want to know if this red undertow has created
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: a blue tsunami. Jeannie Noho says the next governor of
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: Texas would be a pretty big clue. Now, what's interesting
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: here is how few national Democrats are coming in to
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: help her. The national party's coming in to help Tallarica.
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: And yet, there's been a hesitance to spend some money
• 47:26
  Speaker 1: on behalf of Hinojosa. I get it. Texas is very expensive.
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: But I'm really surprised. This brings me to Andy Beshear.
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: He's the current chair of the Democratic Governors Association. And
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: I'm just surprised he's been so cautious with his money
• 47:41
  Speaker 1: and with this map. Because look, the gubernatorial map is
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: fundamentally different from the Senate map for Democrats in this cycle.
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Senate Democrats don't have a luxury here. They need four
• 47:55
  Speaker 1: seats to get, they have the net four seats to
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: get control. There's only a certain set of races that
• 48:00
  Speaker 1: are up. And there's a certain realistic path to find
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: their net of four seats. You can sit down with
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: a legal pad and do the math. Here are the
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: Republican seats where those four could plausibly come from. Here
• 48:14
  Speaker 1: are the Democratic seats that they need to protect. In
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: this case, it's Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire, Minnesota. And then
• 48:23
  Speaker 1: we know the targets they're making. They have sort of
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: an initial target. Five targets, North Carolina, Maine, Alaska, Ohio,
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: now Iowa and Texas are in that first tier, and
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: then you have Kansas, Nebraska, Mississippi, South Carolina in the
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: next tier. But a failure of netting their four seats,
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: and I get that you can have this argument that, well, boy,
• 48:48
  Speaker 1: Kansas is possible, but don't blow it in Maine. So
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: there's just going to be some priorities there. And there's
• 48:54
  Speaker 1: a penalty if you make the wrong calculation here. That's
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: not what's happening with governors. The DGA doesn't have the problem,
• 49:04
  Speaker 1: this sort of targeting necessity, if you will, that the
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: Senate does. There's certainly plenty of important races. But the
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: DGA is in much better shape on the defense front
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: than the DSCC is. Right? Yes, there's you know, and
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: when you look at these governors races, you look at
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: them first through the prism of president of of the
• 49:27
  Speaker 1: presidential battleground states. And then you look at it through
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: the prism of are there any blue states that are
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: suddenly in trouble that have major donors? Right. In this case,
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: the two most important the three most important in those
• 49:40
  Speaker 1: cases would be California, New York and Massachusetts. Well, all
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: three of those are going to be fine. So they
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: don't have like a money suck. They don't have the
• 49:50
  Speaker 1: equivalent of a Texas Senate that the Republicans have, right?
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: A place they have to spend money they've never had
• 49:55
  Speaker 1: to spend money before and like, oh, shit, right? Now,
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: they certainly have some reasonably pricey places to make a defense.
• 50:02
  Speaker 1: Georgia and Wisconsin are two of those. Nevada, Las Vegas
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: is never cheap. And they have opportunities in Iowa and
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: Ohio that they're taking advantage of. But some of the biggest,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: like I said, they don't have everything. Michigan and Minnesota
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: look like they could be problematic at the start of
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: this calendar year. They look a lot more manageable now.
• 50:23
  Speaker 1: Arizona could have been problematic. The Republicans nominated Andy Biggs, right?
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: Josh Shapiro is going to be fun. They're in a
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: much stronger position in Democratic governors than they are, frankly,
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: with some Democratic senators. So- The DGA, I think, has
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: the luxury to look much further beyond the obvious map
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: than the Democratic Senate campaigns. And rhetorically, the DGA seems
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: to get this. They've started an expand the map fund.
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: And Andy Beshear, a red state Democratic governor who wants
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: to run for president, is perfectly positioned to make that case. Hey,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: look at me. I'm an example of somebody that can
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: pull this off. As he even said, I'm living, breathing
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: proof that Democrats can compete and win everywhere. But the
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: DGA says one thing, but they haven't put their money
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: where that mouth is. Because Texas isn't the only place
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: they have yet to invest in that is incredibly competitive.
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: David Jolly is trying to do something similar in Florida,
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: and there's clearly something happening. I'm a skeptic that he
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: can get to 50%, but it's really close. Doug Jones
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: in Alabama, in fact, Jones is running against Tommy Tupperville,
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: probably the most There's a lot of unqualified people that
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: have served as a United States senator. So to claim
• 51:48
  Speaker 1: he's the most unqualified is hyperbole. But he has yet
• 51:55
  Speaker 1: to demonstrate much qualification beyond being over the age of
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: 30 when it comes to being a United States senator.
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: Because Tommy Tuberville went to the floor of the Senate
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: earlier this week and spent much of a nearly 22-minute
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: speech talking about transgender Americans and then, yes, furries. And
• 52:14
  Speaker 1: I know what you're thinking. What? Yeah, that's what I did.
• 52:17
  Speaker 1: Tuberville claimed that airline pilots, flight attendants and air traffic
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: controllers are part of the furry community. He said it
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: was terrifying to think that a pilot flying your airplane
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: might have what he called a deranged fetish of dressing
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: like an animal. If this were happening, I guess he
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: would be right that this would be weird, except he
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: didn't offer any evidence of this. And when a reporter
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: asked him about it, Tuberville insisted there's some sort of
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: furry pilots organization. He says, they have a club, they
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: have an organization. And then he conceded that there are, well,
• 52:51
  Speaker 1: there are probably not a whole lot of them. Really?
• 52:53
  Speaker 1: You think? Really? We don't have an epidemic of pilots
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: dressed up as animals flying airplanes? One of his pieces
• 53:01
  Speaker 1: of evidence apparently involved animal noises heard over aviation radio,
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: which are actually, it's a long running joke among pilots.
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: Doug Jones called it one of the strangest speeches he's
• 53:12
  Speaker 1: ever heard, which is probably the perfect response. What else
• 53:15
  Speaker 1: are you supposed to say? You know, my opponent is
• 53:19
  Speaker 1: either drunk or insane or just dumb as a rock.
• 53:23
  Speaker 1: I don't know which it is, but it is weird. Now,
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: am I telling you Doug Jones is going to be
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: the ex-governor of Alabama?
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: No.
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: And I don't know if David Jolly is going to win.
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: And we've discussed this, you know, how hard it is
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: for Gina, you know, so. But if you look at
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: those three candidates and you're Andy Beshear and you want
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: to run for president in 2028 to try to rebrand
• 53:45
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, change the perception of the Democratic Party,
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: can I introduce you to three candidates who are trying
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: to run campaigns a little bit differently, that are trying
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: to run as a different type of Democrat, that are
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: trying to demonstrate that this adherence to a cultural left-wing
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: ideology Is is not a good idea. And here are
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: three candidates demonstrating versions of this, showing how you talk
• 54:14
  Speaker 1: to meet voters where they are. Dare I say they're
• 54:20
  Speaker 1: emulating a dude from Kentucky named Andy Beshear. Right. They're
• 54:26
  Speaker 1: running as Democrats without asking voters to buy the entire
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: national Democratic left wing brand. I'm trying to figure out
• 54:37
  Speaker 1: why Bashir hasn't jumped into these races more. And in fact,
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: I think he's got a lot more at stake here
• 54:44
  Speaker 1: than simply being the guy who decides where the DGA
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: writes checks. Bashir has made it pretty clear he's got
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: another campaign in him. He did it last week in
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: a joint appearance with Wes Moore. Wes Moore interviewed him
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: about his book. Well, if he wants to be a
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: part of this 2028 conversation, What's his argument going to be? Right. Well,
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: presumably it's some version of I know how Democrats win voters.
• 55:08
  Speaker 1: We've been losing. I know how to compete in red America.
• 55:11
  Speaker 1: I know how to talk to people who don't like
• 55:13
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party, but might vote for the right kind
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: of Democrat. Well, governor, you've got three candidates trying to
• 55:18
  Speaker 1: prove your theory right now. And so far, nothing.
• 55:27
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: And this is a case where losing can still help you.
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: David Jolly makes Florida genuinely competitive. It actually helps prove
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: your theory. Doug Jones loses by a point or two.
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: That's also useful information. Gina Hinojosa even wins Texas. You
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: win Texas, you help put her over the top. You
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: might change the map in 2028. And you certainly will
• 55:54
  Speaker 1: have somebody who may help you with Latino voters. You
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: know how big of a national star a governor, you know,
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: also becomes if she pulls this off? Don't you want
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: her in your, I mean, and by the way, if
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: she loses, she's not going to lose by much. She's
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: probably the next big thing in Texas with Tallarico. My
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: assumption is Tallarico wins in most circumstances. I think that's
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: how toast Paxton is. It's my opinion. You know, polls
• 56:25
  Speaker 1: seem to support me on this. That's it. I just,
• 56:33
  Speaker 1: you know, and look, Latino voters, they've been some key
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: Democratic leaders have been publicly pushing Bashir to put some
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: serious money into Texas. And they're right to push him.
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: Like I said, if he helps make this happen, it's
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: a game changer for him. Texas becomes an important fundraising
• 56:53
  Speaker 1: state for his presidential campaign. So of all people controlling
• 56:58
  Speaker 1: a large pot of political money to spend in 2026,
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: Andy Beshear may have the most interesting incentive to expand
• 57:06
  Speaker 1: the map. Because every, you know, so he helps elect
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: or even just comes closest evidence for his own argument
• 57:13
  Speaker 1: about where the Democratic Party needs to go.
• 57:17
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: He doesn't need another Democrat who can win Massachusetts. He
• 57:20
  Speaker 1: needs some more Democrats that can win in places like
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: Kentucky or Florida or Alabama or Texas. So I'm surprised
• 57:27
  Speaker 1: he's been so slow. Do I think they may come
• 57:29
  Speaker 1: in for one or two of these races? I do.
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: Because again, they don't have a big money suck. Georgia
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: is arguably the most expensive race they're targeting and one
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: that they can't walk away from. And now they're in,
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: I think, a near, I don't know if it's an
• 57:47
  Speaker 1: unwinnable seat for Keystone Lance Bottoms, but the Republicans have
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: the best possible nominee they could have. Somebody who ran
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: against a Trump candidate, beat a Trump candidate, and is
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: funding his own race. So it is not an easy race.
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: But outside of that, they don't have a really... It's
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: it is strange to me that they've been so slow
• 58:13
  Speaker 1: in jumping in. But the opportunity is sitting there. And
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: like I said, the single most important there's it's interesting.
• 58:23
  Speaker 1: I think the two so far, the two best campaigns
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: being run in America are both by women nominees for governor.
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: Jocelyn Benson in Michigan. And Gina, you know, so in Texas.
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: All right. I'm going to sneak in a break. And
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: when we come back, my conversation with Tom Vilsack, another
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: guy who thinks the Democratic Party needs to get better
• 58:45
  Speaker 1: about talking to people who live in rural America, whether
• 58:48
  Speaker 1: or not they're Democrats. Well, joining me now is somebody
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: I've known a long time. I think I think we've
• 59:01
  Speaker 1: known each other long enough. We would consider each other friends,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: although we don't ever live in the same town. We've
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: got some interesting common, including a love for baseball. And
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: he's a diehard Pittsburgh Pirates fan. And I just I
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: admire diehard fans of teams that that that are just
• 59:18
  Speaker 1: should be better than they are. It is the former
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: agriculture secretary and I think now the longest serving ag
• 59:24
  Speaker 1: secretary in American history. Second longest. Well, we'll get to that.
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: former two-term governor of the state of Iowa, Tom Vilsack. Tom,
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: it's good to see you.
• 59:35
  Speaker 2: Good to see you, Chuck. But I guess it's pretty
• 59:37
  Speaker 2: easy to be a Los Angeles Dodgers fan.
• 59:39
  Speaker 1: Well, you know, I really am less a Dodgers fan
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: these days. I know when we first met, I was. But,
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: you know, look, I'd never gotten to grow up in
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: a major league city. And when the Nats came to town,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: when they moved in 05, I was excited to have
• 59:53
  Speaker 1: major league baseball, became a season ticket holder. And you'll
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: know this having kids. My son, when the Nats got
• 59:59
  Speaker 1: good in that 2010, 2011, my son was like four
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: or five. And then we went through that whole thing.
• 1:00:07
  Speaker 1: And the World Series run, it is the Dodgers somehow
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: became the evil empire. And, you know, it was I mean,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: I went to a World Series. I mean, that that 2019,
• 1:00:18
  Speaker 1: that memory. I mean, it is. And there's something about
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: he was. he's 20 now, but he was just about
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 1: to be 20, but he was, so in 2019, he
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 1: was like 13. And when stuff happens at that age
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: and you're like, you know, that with your team, like
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: that's it, right? You're always dreaming of that moment. Like
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: I'm that way with the University of Miami football. The
• 1:00:40
  Speaker 1: first title, I was 11 and I just got to
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: experience like that was, This was amazing. That's the sort of–
• 1:00:47
  Speaker 1: and I'm all in on the Nats. So I'm joining
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: you there in the bottom of the standings.
• 1:00:54
  Speaker 2: Yeah, but you have at least had a World Series in.
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: The– I did. Look, I– This was supposed to be
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: the year that the Pirates are going to break out
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: of their slumber, wasn't it?
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 2: Well, they're going to improve by 10, 12 games over
• 1:01:11
  Speaker 2: the previous year, which is a pretty big leap for
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 2: any team. And they've got a core. You know, if
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 2: you look at the history of the Pirates... Uh, what
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 2: you're going to find next year, if there is baseball season,
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: hopefully there is, uh, uh, the pirates, I think will, will,
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 2: will fare well. I think they'll get their pitching straightened
• 1:01:27
  Speaker 2: out and they seem to have found a closer. I
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 2: think we'll get skeins figured out. Hopefully Keller gets.
• 1:01:31
  Speaker 1: What do you think the skeins issue is? I know
• 1:01:33
  Speaker 1: you watch a lot of games. Is it a velocity issue?
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 1: What do you think?
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 2: The world, uh, the world. Baseball classic threw him off
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: his whole regime. You know, he's a very structured guy
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: and that threw him off. And I don't think he
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 2: ever quite recovered. I think you'll see his velocity come
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: back next year a little bit. Plus, I think he
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: needs to simplify. You know, he's trying to pitch six
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 2: different pitches. I mean, you know, in this league, if
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 2: you have three or four and they're good and he
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 2: has three or four that are good, you got to
• 1:02:03
  Speaker 2: just stick to those.
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: That's it. I had not heard that theory about the WBC,
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: but with pitchers, it's clear, right? These regimens matter. I mean, look,
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 1: I live this with Strasburg, and I feel like Skeens
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: is your Strasburg. You're like, oh, my God. And, you know,
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: what's funny about Strasburg is that there's this weird feeling
• 1:02:22
  Speaker 1: among some Nats fans that he didn't, you know, he was, quote, unquote,
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: a disappointment. He's got one of the greatest post-season pitching
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: stat lines ever, multiple years. He was the World Series
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: MVP for a reason. And I always go back to
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: my Nats fans like, okay, so he didn't end up
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: a Hall of Famer, but he was pretty darn good.
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, what do you, you know, I sometimes think we,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: you know, these athletes that get taken number one or
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: number two, and you think, you know, if they're not
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: the greatest of all time, they're considered bust. And I'm like, Hey,
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: I'd like to have a 15 year major league career.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Oh my Lord.
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 2: Yeah. And well, he took you to the promised land. So, uh,
• 1:03:00
  Speaker 2: what's not to like about that. Now I'll tell you
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 2: one thing about the pirates, this.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Guy, Griffin. Yes. He's batting Griffin.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: Right. He's batting 50 points higher than Barry Bonds did
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 2: in his first year.
• 1:03:11
  Speaker 1: Let's just think about that. That's a good line. So
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: you didn't have baseball in Iowa. Uh, I know in
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: the same way, uh, there I'd look, I invited you
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: on because, um, I really think just the coverage in
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: general of the ag industry, ag politics, and you know
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: this because you've tried so hard to get more reporters
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: like myself a bit more familiar. And here we are
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: with a genuine crisis in the cattle industry, genuine issues
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: due to tariff policy. And I just feel as if,
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, you probably see it. I feel like the
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: East Coast media is They're reporting on it, but they
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 1: don't get it. Do you get that sense?
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 2: No, I think that's absolutely right. The beef issue, for example,
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 2: is at the end of the day, the basics for
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 2: agriculture are really pretty simple. You need a supply, you
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 2: need a decent price, and you need a market and
• 1:04:07
  Speaker 2: a buyer willing to buy at the price that you set.
• 1:04:11
  Speaker 2: On the beef side, it's a very complicated set of
• 1:04:14
  Speaker 2: issues that impacts all three of those items. I mean,
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: the supply is thin. And that's because the risk in
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 2: cattle is extremely high. Now, why is it high? Well,
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 2: first of all, there's aggressive competition from other proteins. I mean,
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 2: the shopper goes into the grocery store and says, oh,
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: ground beef is X number of dollars per pound. I
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: can get a pork or I can get chicken or
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 2: I can get some other alternative protein for a lot
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: less money. And so they end up using their consuming power.
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: Then you've got the health and climate issues that people
• 1:04:47
  Speaker 2: associate with raising cattle, which creates some issues and some
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 2: hesitation on the part of buyers. You've got screwworm that
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 2: now creates at least the impression that maybe that supply
• 1:04:57
  Speaker 2: is not as safe as it needs to be, which
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 2: is unfortunate. And you have the cost of production that
• 1:05:03
  Speaker 2: is very, very high. For what reason? Well, climate has
• 1:05:06
  Speaker 2: had an impact. Drought in the West makes such that
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: forage isn't as available, so you have to buy feed. Well,
• 1:05:13
  Speaker 2: that's expensive. You have to cart water because you don't
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: have it where it normally is. So you have to
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 2: get it from where, like in Iowa, where we have
• 1:05:20
  Speaker 2: too much water right now. The farmer demographics, it's hard work.
• 1:05:25
  Speaker 2: And as they get older and fewer, a number of
• 1:05:28
  Speaker 2: them go out of business. The war is driving up
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 2: input costs significantly for these guys. And the labor supply
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: is in short supply because they get a somewhat inconsistent
• 1:05:39
  Speaker 2: message here. Now, we love our farmers, but we also
• 1:05:43
  Speaker 2: aren't going to provide them the workforce because we're going
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: to basically discourage people from coming into the country. So
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: that's part of it. The other part is that farmers generally,
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 2: and this is what I don't think people really get,
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 2: Farmers get so little of the food dollar as it is.
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 2: We spend roughly 9% to 10% of our take-home pay
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 2: on food in this country. And farmers get about 15
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 2: cents of every dollar that's spent on food. So you
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 2: have to ask yourself, who gets the other 85 cents?
• 1:06:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just going to say, help us out here.
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: Show this 85 cents. I love this. 15 cents goes
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: to the To the farm. To the cattle rancher, to
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: the farm.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: Well, just think about it.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 2: So he takes the cattle to the processor and there
• 1:06:27
  Speaker 2: are too few processors. So he's pretty much at the,
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 2: or she's at the mercy.
• 1:06:31
  Speaker 1: Of whatever price. I have to say, I interviewed a
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: cattle rancher in Virginia and I couldn't believe how far
• 1:06:36
  Speaker 1: they have gone to get to a processor. Right. Hundreds
• 1:06:40
  Speaker 1: of miles. And that's transportation costs. That's You know, all
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: sorts of issues associated with that. And, you know, during
• 1:06:48
  Speaker 1: the Biden administration, we invested a significant amount of money
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: in expanding independent processing. But that needed to be an
• 1:06:55
  Speaker 1: ongoing set of investments, which right now is somewhat disrupted. So,
• 1:07:01
  Speaker 1: the processor gets his nickel or dime. And then the
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: trucker who transports the processed meat to the grocery store
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: gets a bit of it. And then the grocery store
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: gets a bit of it. And the people who package
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: it and label it and process it and retail it. So,
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: there are many, many mouths to feed in this process.
• 1:07:22
  Speaker 1: And the farmer gets blamed for high prices when, in fact,
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: the farmer is probably, of all those in the food
• 1:07:30
  Speaker 1: supply chain, is probably getting the least level of support
• 1:07:34
  Speaker 1: for the amount of effort and work that they put
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: into producing the product. Look, you've outlined a series of
• 1:07:40
  Speaker 1: challenges here. And I know that I think some of
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: them are the long-term trend lines and this issue of
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: just how many people are going to want to stay
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: in this business. consolidation with processing plants. This is something
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 1: I think we all became slightly more educated about during
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 1: the pandemic when a processing plant would suddenly not be
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: able to do their work and all of a sudden,
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: wait a minute, how come we only have how many
• 1:08:04
  Speaker 1: of these processing plants? Wait a minute, we've got an
• 1:08:07
  Speaker 1: issue here. Our immigration policy, border security, but a better
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: plan to bring workers who want to do these jobs,
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 1: that's been missing. So I guess the question I have
• 1:08:19
  Speaker 1: for you is, You know, it's like, you know, how
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: do you eat an elephant one bite at a time?
• 1:08:23
  Speaker 1: What do you do short term, medium term and long term?
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: And what's realistic? I know you've been like you had
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: the luxury of having two bites at this egg apple.
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 1: So you were trying to you actually got to implement
• 1:08:35
  Speaker 1: some long term and try to invest in some medium term.
• 1:08:38
  Speaker 1: And I know there's been some pullback on investments or
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: missing money in these last 18 months. But so let's
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: start short term. Short term is politicians need to lower
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 1: the cost of ground beef. What can be done?
• 1:08:53
  Speaker 2: Well, what's interesting, the response from the current administration was
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: to import mystery ground beef from some mystery country.
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: We wouldn't be told where. It's Argentina and Brazil, but
• 1:09:06
  Speaker 1: we didn't want to say it. Yeah.
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: It's obviously some South American country for sure. And at
• 1:09:13
  Speaker 2: a pretty good price. So you have to kind of
• 1:09:14
  Speaker 2: ask yourself, what's that all about? Here's the problem with that.
• 1:09:18
  Speaker 1: Is there a South American country we bailed out recently
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: on their currency? I can't remember. Well, yeah. So there
• 1:09:23
  Speaker 1: you go.
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: Here's the problem with that. They're trying to address the
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 2: supply issue by bringing more supply in. But they're also
• 1:09:35
  Speaker 2: sending an inconsistent message to the farmer and the rancher
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 2: by saying, look, we're going to import more foreign product. Well,
• 1:09:43
  Speaker 2: that's going to discourage a lot of people from staying
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: in the business because, I mean, you know, if that's
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 2: what's going to happen, then this business becomes even riskier.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 2: All right. So the question isn't so much that. If
• 1:09:55
  Speaker 2: you want to increase the supply, you have to create
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 2: a market that's more domestically directed. Now, how would you
• 1:10:02
  Speaker 2: do that? Well, you would start buying beef. As a
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 2: government entity, you would buy beef or encourage the purchase
• 1:10:11
  Speaker 2: of beef for food banks. for school meal programs.
• 1:10:17
  Speaker 1: That would be a short-term way to at least goose
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: the market a little bit domestically and you're helping with
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: school lunches.
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 2: Send the message on, but here's the problem with that strategy.
• 1:10:31
  Speaker 2: In order to do that, you have to tap what
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 2: is called the Commodity Credit Corporation, the CCC, which established
• 1:10:38
  Speaker 2: during The Depression era, it's a great vehicle. Every year, roughly,
• 1:10:44
  Speaker 2: the Secretary of Agriculture has roughly $ 30 billion that's put.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: Into a fund.
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 2: It's supposed to essentially pay for a portion of the
• 1:10:56
  Speaker 2: food farm programs, but there's always money left over that
• 1:11:00
  Speaker 2: can be directed towards the purchase of products in order
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: to help people who are challenged. Well, the problem is
• 1:11:09
  Speaker 2: that they've basically used all of that because of the tariffs.
• 1:11:15
  Speaker 1: In order to make up for those that have been
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: hit by tariff, this has been the makeup payments they've
• 1:11:22
  Speaker 1: tapped into that fund?
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: It's a vehicle by which they have in the past
• 1:11:27
  Speaker 2: been providing some level of assistance. That option is a
• 1:11:31
  Speaker 2: bit limited, but they could refill it or Congress could
• 1:11:35
  Speaker 2: appropriate more money. But the bottom line is, if you
• 1:11:38
  Speaker 2: create a market, then that is what is the incentive
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 2: for the rancher to take the risk to produce. And
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 2: then secondly, with reference to the labor supply, we had
• 1:11:50
  Speaker 2: an interesting pilot that was in effect in the Biden administration.
• 1:11:54
  Speaker 2: where we essentially provided some degree of incentive for folks
• 1:11:58
  Speaker 2: to be willing to hire immigrant labor from El Salvador
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 2: and Honduras. We gave a bit of incentive. And in
• 1:12:09
  Speaker 2: exchange for that incentive, the rancher or farmer agreed to
• 1:12:13
  Speaker 2: basically pay a decent wage and provide health care and
• 1:12:16
  Speaker 2: a good setup. We had 77 operations basically take advantage
• 1:12:20
  Speaker 2: of the $ 65 million. So the Trump administration discontinued that program,
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 2: but then they got so much pushback, they sort of
• 1:12:28
  Speaker 2: brought it back online. Well, there's an opportunity to address
• 1:12:31
  Speaker 2: the labor issue by coming up with a creative solution
• 1:12:34
  Speaker 2: to say, look, we're concerned about knowing who's crossing the border. Well,
• 1:12:38
  Speaker 2: how about if we select these people, we train these people,
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 2: we know who they are, we bring them over to
• 1:12:43
  Speaker 2: the country, we give the farmer rancher a bit of
• 1:12:46
  Speaker 2: an incentive and see how many ranchers will essentially.
• 1:12:52
  Speaker 2: Buy into this program. That basically keeps the border secure,
• 1:12:57
  Speaker 2: but also addresses the labor issue. These are things that
• 1:13:02
  Speaker 2: you can do. You can also help farmers by, and
• 1:13:05
  Speaker 2: I think the administration will probably do this if they
• 1:13:07
  Speaker 2: haven't already, there's a conservation reserve program land, which is
• 1:13:12
  Speaker 2: basically idled for a period of time.
• 1:13:14
  Speaker 1: Well, you can make it easier.
• 1:13:15
  Speaker 2: To graze those areas without a significant penalty to the
• 1:13:20
  Speaker 2: CRP program and the farmer who's taking advantage of it. Well,
• 1:13:24
  Speaker 2: that could increase the forage that's available to producers. There
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 2: are ways to help short-term without necessarily roiling the market
• 1:13:33
  Speaker 2: as they've done with the importing of beef.
• 1:13:37
  Speaker 1: The long-term challenge seems harder. One of the things I
• 1:13:39
  Speaker 1: learned when I was down at this meeting with the
• 1:13:44
  Speaker 1: head of the Virginia cattle ranchers association is a majority
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: of cattle ranchers at least in virginia essentially have w-2
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: income from somewhere else meaning it's just not a lot
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: of these ranchers have to have a you know somebody
• 1:14:02
  Speaker 1: and somebody in the family has to get a second
• 1:14:04
  Speaker 1: job oh it has to get it yeah yeah How.
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 2: Much time is this show? So let me just take
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 2: you back. In 1973, this all started, this whole process
• 1:14:16
  Speaker 2: that we're talking about, the long-term issue, started back in 1973.
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 2: When the Nixon administration came in and changed the supply
• 1:14:25
  Speaker 2: management structure that was in place from the Depression on,
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 2: where we were controlling the supply, stabilizing the price, the
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 2: problem was food prices were high. The Nixon administration wanted
• 1:14:35
  Speaker 2: to use food as a diplomatic tool, so they basically
• 1:14:38
  Speaker 2: told farmers fence row to fence row. They focused the
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 2: entire system on production. And they warned farmers when they
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 2: did this. They said, now, you can have the market
• 1:14:47
  Speaker 2: that you want. You can grow whatever you want to grow,
• 1:14:50
  Speaker 2: and you can sell all of it. But you better
• 1:14:54
  Speaker 2: get big or you're probably going to have to get out.
• 1:14:57
  Speaker 2: So since 1973, we've lost almost a million farm operations,
• 1:15:03
  Speaker 2: and we've lost 220 million acres of land that was
• 1:15:06
  Speaker 2: in farming that's not in farming today. Now, it's not
• 1:15:09
  Speaker 2: like it's in a bigger farm. It's just not in farming.
• 1:15:11
  Speaker 2: That is, I think, the equivalent of Texas and Oklahoma combined.
• 1:15:16
  Speaker 2: That's since 1973. Now, here's the problem. Because we basically
• 1:15:21
  Speaker 2: told these guys fence row to fence row, and we
• 1:15:23
  Speaker 2: told them to build and plant commodities, you've got a
• 1:15:28
  Speaker 2: real disconnect between the 10% of farms that are relatively large,
• 1:15:32
  Speaker 2: so more than $ 350, 000 in sales every year, and the
• 1:15:36
  Speaker 2: other 90%. And I'm going to give you an example.
• 1:15:40
  Speaker 2: But that explains why 88% of farm families have to
• 1:15:43
  Speaker 2: have off-farm income to keep the farm.
• 1:15:45
  Speaker 1: Why is that?
• 1:15:46
  Speaker 2: Well, the best year in farm income was 2022.
• 1:15:49
  Speaker 1: 2022.
• 1:15:50
  Speaker 2: Post-COVID, sort of the post-COVID supply surge or what? Yeah,
• 1:15:54
  Speaker 2: it was a bunch of things. It was a good
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 2: Secretary of Agriculture. $ 185 billion of net cash income that year.
• 1:15:58
  Speaker 2: In that year, that top 10%, 180,000 farms out of
• 1:16:01
  Speaker 2: 1.8 million received 85% of that income, which meant that
• 1:16:04
  Speaker 2: 1.6 million farms had to split 15%. Now, hypothetically, if
• 1:16:20
  Speaker 2: you took the 185, multiplied it by 85%, divided it
• 1:16:22
  Speaker 2: up equally among 180,000 farms, each farm would get $ 830, 000.
• 1:16:24
  Speaker 2: If you did the same thing for the 15% of
• 1:16:25
  Speaker 2: income over the 90% of farms, it'd be $ 17, 000. So
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 2: the question is, who's going to get big? Then you
• 1:16:29
  Speaker 2: have to understand that 74% of the subsidies that are
• 1:16:31
  Speaker 2: in the system go to the top 10%. The problem
• 1:16:49
  Speaker 2: that we've been facing that we really haven't addressed, and
• 1:16:53
  Speaker 2: we started in Obama, and I think we elevated in Biden,
• 1:16:57
  Speaker 2: is we've not created a different game for the other 90%,
• 1:17:01
  Speaker 2: for the farmer that you talked to in Virginia. We
• 1:17:02
  Speaker 2: haven't created a situation where instead of the farmer working harder,
• 1:17:06
  Speaker 2: it's the farm that should work harder. We haven't created
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 2: a system in which that smaller-sized operator can get paid
• 1:17:14
  Speaker 2: multiple ways for what he or she does on the farm.
• 1:17:17
  Speaker 2: So let me give you an example. Part of the
• 1:17:19
  Speaker 2: problem is we only have two kinds of commodities today.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 2: We have organic, which is very high value, very difficult
• 1:17:28
  Speaker 2: to achieve. Very few farmers are involved in it, and
• 1:17:31
  Speaker 2: everything else. If you think of the restaurant business, you've
• 1:17:34
  Speaker 2: got Michelin star restaurants, but you also have fast food,
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 2: and then you've got everything in between. Your value proposition,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 2: you can be whatever you want to be with that
• 1:17:42
  Speaker 2: value proposition. You don't have that in farming. As a result,
• 1:17:48
  Speaker 2: These farmers have to decide they either play the commodity
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 2: game or the organic game. Why can't we create additional
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 2: classifications of commodities? Why can't we say, for example, as
• 1:17:57
  Speaker 2: we did in Biden, hey, If you address and adopt
• 1:18:01
  Speaker 2: sustainable agricultural practices, not quite organic, but more than the
• 1:18:06
  Speaker 2: general commodity, we're going to create a different classification, different
• 1:18:10
  Speaker 2: commodity class for you, and we're going to pay you
• 1:18:13
  Speaker 2: a premium. The market's going to pay you a premium
• 1:18:14
  Speaker 2: because there are enough customers willing to buy and pay
• 1:18:17
  Speaker 2: a little bit more, but not as much for organic
• 1:18:20
  Speaker 2: for this new product. We had 135 contracts that involved
• 1:18:24
  Speaker 2: millions of farms or millions of acres. Tens of thousands
• 1:18:29
  Speaker 2: of farmers who were in this program. And this was
• 1:18:31
  Speaker 2: building over time. And we had major companies. We had
• 1:18:36
  Speaker 2: food companies. We had major environmental organizations. We had major
• 1:18:40
  Speaker 2: farm quality groups. We had major universities. It was an
• 1:18:44
  Speaker 2: amazing opportunity to create a different market.
• 1:18:56
  Speaker 1: Basically, you would have had regular, but sustainable, organic. Is
• 1:18:59
  Speaker 1: that sort of the three categories?
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 2: Right. If you measure and monitor the result of the
• 1:19:05
  Speaker 2: environmental result of that practice, right? If you can say, hey,
• 1:19:10
  Speaker 2: as a result of that, I sequestered X number of
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 2: tons of carbon and we could create ecosystem service market
• 1:19:17
  Speaker 2: payments to that farmer. So they get paid not just
• 1:19:19
  Speaker 2: the higher value for the commodity, but they could potentially
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 2: make a bit of a little money on selling the
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 2: environmental result to somebody who needs that result to offset
• 1:19:28
  Speaker 2: their own responsibilities. Then if you say to them, hey,
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 2: by the way, you've got a little acreage over here.
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 2: With new technology, you can put solar panels on there.
• 1:19:37
  Speaker 2: You can put a wind turbine. And you can generate
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 2: electricity not just for yourself, but for your neighbor. So
• 1:19:45
  Speaker 2: now you get an energy check. So now you've got
• 1:19:47
  Speaker 2: multiple streams of income. Your waste product, the manure that
• 1:19:53
  Speaker 2: you maybe over-apply on land creates issues. Maybe if you
• 1:19:56
  Speaker 2: redirect that, and we had an industrial policy that basically
• 1:19:59
  Speaker 2: said we should be converting agricultural waste, manure, whatever you
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 2: want to, however you want to characterize it, into something
• 1:20:05
  Speaker 2: more valuable. So you could take that manure, you can
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 2: produce methane from it.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: You took the.
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 2: Methane, so it becomes a new commodity. So now all
• 1:20:12
  Speaker 2: of a sudden, This farm has three or four income
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 2: sources from just basically what the farmer's doing today, not
• 1:20:19
  Speaker 2: just one source. That he has no control.
• 1:20:22
  Speaker 1: I'll be honest. It sounds like a no-brainer.
• 1:20:25
  Speaker 2: Why?
• 1:20:31
  Speaker 1: What am I missing? Is it harder to do than
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: I think? Who are the people blocking it? Somebody's fighting it.
• 1:20:40
  Speaker 2: We had $ 20 to $ 25 billion that had been set
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 2: aside during the COVID recovery process. We had $ 20 to
• 1:20:48
  Speaker 2: $ 25 billion set aside for a three to five year
• 1:20:50
  Speaker 2: effort to basically create this model and then basically say
• 1:20:53
  Speaker 2: to Congress, you know what? This is the model you
• 1:20:56
  Speaker 2: should incorporate in farm bills. Now, here's the problem. The
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 2: problem is people are going to say, well, where does
• 1:21:00
  Speaker 2: the money come from? All right. And so here's my
• 1:21:02
  Speaker 2: answer to that. I hear politicians say this, and shoot,
• 1:21:07
  Speaker 2: I was one of them, that food security is national security. Okay.
• 1:21:12
  Speaker 2: If you buy into that, and I think everybody does
• 1:21:15
  Speaker 2: because we're a food secure nation, which gives us a
• 1:21:17
  Speaker 2: heck of an advantage. Very few countries in the world
• 1:21:19
  Speaker 2: today are food secure. We are, which means we can
• 1:21:22
  Speaker 2: basically produce everything we need to feed our own people.
• 1:21:25
  Speaker 2: We don't really have to import anything really. Maybe we
• 1:21:29
  Speaker 2: import for choice. Maybe we import.
• 1:21:31
  Speaker 1: It's luxury. No, I mean, look, I, it's one of
• 1:21:33
  Speaker 1: the things I've, you know, I think one of the
• 1:21:36
  Speaker 1: greatest transformations in, you know, This is why I'm an
• 1:21:40
  Speaker 1: advocate for freer trade, which is simply go to the
• 1:21:45
  Speaker 1: produce section. I can now get certain produce year round
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: that when I was a kid, you couldn't. No, no,
• 1:21:52
  Speaker 1: peach season. And there was just a season for everything.
• 1:21:55
  Speaker 1: And it was really hard. I mean, growing up in Miami,
• 1:21:58
  Speaker 1: you could get mangoes there. You couldn't ship a mango.
• 1:22:01
  Speaker 1: It was hard to ship a mango back. It was just,
• 1:22:04
  Speaker 1: you know, you couldn't get it in other places. And
• 1:22:07
  Speaker 1: And I don't think, and this was one of those
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: people didn't fully appreciate how much in the grocery store,
• 1:22:14
  Speaker 1: the produce section benefited the most from these lower tariffs
• 1:22:20
  Speaker 1: over the last couple of decades.
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 2: And consumers did, too, because it basically gave them choice.
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 2: It gave competition. So if food security is national security,
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 2: and the current administration wants to spend $ 1. 5 trillion on
• 1:22:35
  Speaker 2: national security, I just simply say, well, give us one
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 2: penny of every dollar. Because we're part of the national
• 1:22:42
  Speaker 2: security family here. We deserve some resources. Now, that would
• 1:22:46
  Speaker 2: be $ 15 billion. And I guarantee you that if you
• 1:22:48
  Speaker 2: had $ 15 billion invested in the system that I just outlined,
• 1:22:52
  Speaker 2: and you also created a local and regional food system.
• 1:22:55
  Speaker 2: So what we had was a program where we essentially
• 1:22:59
  Speaker 2: provided ag secretaries in the States, money so that they
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 2: could go out and purchase locally produced stuff for their
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 2: food banks and for their schools. Now, why is that important?
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 2: Because research shows that farmers get two to seven times
• 1:23:13
  Speaker 2: the return on that type of transaction than they do
• 1:23:17
  Speaker 2: if they just simply sell it and ultimately it gets
• 1:23:19
  Speaker 2: in a major grocery store. So you create this system
• 1:23:23
  Speaker 2: of support for that small farmer.
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: Now, why would you do that? Well, here's why you
• 1:23:26
  Speaker 1: do it.
• 1:23:27
  Speaker 2: Because if you can keep that farmer on the farm,
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 2: You're going to keep the kids in the rural school.
• 1:23:31
  Speaker 2: You're going to keep the patients at the rural hospital.
• 1:23:34
  Speaker 2: You're going to keep the customers for the rural small business.
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 2: And those small towns are going to continue to prosper. Now,
• 1:23:39
  Speaker 2: why would you want that? Well, if you look at
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 2: the military, the makeup of the military. A disproportionate number
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 2: of those kids come from those small towns. If you
• 1:23:46
  Speaker 2: shrink the population of those small towns, you're shrinking the
• 1:23:49
  Speaker 2: capacity of the military to meet its needs for an
• 1:23:52
  Speaker 2: all-volunteer military. And you just ask the folks today whether
• 1:23:56
  Speaker 2: it's easy to recruit people. It's not because that population
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 2: has shrunk as a percentage. So I make the case,
• 1:24:04
  Speaker 2: put the money in. National security, put the money in,
• 1:24:07
  Speaker 2: create this structured system.
• 1:24:09
  Speaker 1: Look, it's always good politics. That's something I know over time,
• 1:24:13
  Speaker 1: that bringing some sort of new system, new money to
• 1:24:19
  Speaker 1: the ag sector is usually pretty good politics on both
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: sides of the aisle. But let me ask a question
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: on behalf of some of my libertarian friends who look
• 1:24:27
  Speaker 1: at our ag policy and think there's just way too
• 1:24:30
  Speaker 1: many subsidies, way too much government involvement. Some farmers get
• 1:24:33
  Speaker 1: paid to do this, to do that. Now, I hear
• 1:24:39
  Speaker 1: those arguments and I think, well, and I'm curious where
• 1:24:47
  Speaker 1: you sit on this, which is you couldn't have a
• 1:24:50
  Speaker 1: purely free market system in the ag space. And I
• 1:24:54
  Speaker 1: understand that. What's too much subsidy and what's an example
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: of something that probably shouldn't be subsidized? And what's the
• 1:25:05
  Speaker 1: argument that you need to, that, hey, this has to
• 1:25:08
  Speaker 1: be sort of a controlled market? It's not a free market,
• 1:25:12
  Speaker 1: a controlled market.
• 1:25:15
  Speaker 2: Well, if people think food prices are high today, then
• 1:25:23
  Speaker 2: they need to basically go to this system that you've
• 1:25:28
  Speaker 2: just outlined. Because if they think their prices are high today,
• 1:25:34
  Speaker 2: wait till they see the impact and effect on prices
• 1:25:39
  Speaker 2: at the grocery store with the system that you've outlined.
• 1:25:42
  Speaker 2: So the whole idea here is the subsidy effort, it
• 1:25:48
  Speaker 2: can be directed in a different way, right? But the
• 1:25:52
  Speaker 2: reality is the large scale production facilities, they basically make
• 1:25:57
  Speaker 2: us the food secure nations. But it's the smaller operations
• 1:26:00
  Speaker 2: that populate the small towns that provide the military and
• 1:26:03
  Speaker 2: the kids with good values. So you want both. What
• 1:26:07
  Speaker 2: we haven't done is we haven't paid attention.
• 1:26:10
  Speaker 1: To the 90%.
• 1:26:11
  Speaker 2: Now, I give credence to the Republican Party because they
• 1:26:15
  Speaker 2: have actually paid attention to those folks by saying, vote
• 1:26:19
  Speaker 2: for us because we'll lower your taxes and we won't
• 1:26:21
  Speaker 2: regulate you. And in the absence of anything coming from Democrats, well, shoot.
• 1:26:26
  Speaker 2: I mean, yeah, I'm not.
• 1:26:29
  Speaker 1: One side shows up. The other side doesn't. I mean,
• 1:26:31
  Speaker 1: this has been one of your pet peeves for a
• 1:26:33
  Speaker 1: long time. Democrats don't show up in rural America.
• 1:26:35
  Speaker 2: Well, you know why they don't show up is because
• 1:26:38
  Speaker 2: they haven't figured out what to say. And I'm giving
• 1:26:41
  Speaker 2: them what to say. The problem with the Republican strategy
• 1:26:45
  Speaker 2: is it's all on the expense side. Nobody has really
• 1:26:48
  Speaker 2: addressed the income issue, right? But if you create an
• 1:26:51
  Speaker 2: entrepreneurial center, that farm becomes not just a producer of commodities,
• 1:26:56
  Speaker 2: but it's an entrepreneurial center that produces energy, that produces
• 1:26:59
  Speaker 2: environmental results, that creates rural jobs, converting waste into something
• 1:27:04
  Speaker 2: more valuable so that we have less reliance on a
• 1:27:07
  Speaker 2: petroleum-based economy. And all of a sudden, we've got local
• 1:27:10
  Speaker 2: and regional food systems, which people actually like, They like
• 1:27:13
  Speaker 2: to know where their food comes from. Now, all of
• 1:27:15
  Speaker 2: a sudden, this small town is a hub. This small
• 1:27:18
  Speaker 2: town is revived.
• 1:27:19
  Speaker 1: It's alive.
• 1:27:20
  Speaker 2: It can keep its young people. And so you aren't
• 1:27:22
  Speaker 2: going to concrete over that 220 million acres that we've
• 1:27:25
  Speaker 2: already lost. So the strategy for Democrats is to say, look,
• 1:27:31
  Speaker 2: the other side's got the expense thing, but you know what?
• 1:27:34
  Speaker 2: Here's our strategy for basically creating the income side to
• 1:27:38
  Speaker 2: more income. So you don't have to work harder. Your
• 1:27:40
  Speaker 2: farm works harder. And, you know, it does deserve support
• 1:27:44
  Speaker 2: just in the same way the big entities deserve support.
• 1:27:49
  Speaker 2: If you did that, I guarantee you that you would
• 1:27:52
  Speaker 2: have a much happier group of people in those small
• 1:27:55
  Speaker 2: towns than you have today. But Democrats, they don't show
• 1:27:59
  Speaker 2: up because they don't know how to talk to folks
• 1:28:01
  Speaker 2: and they don't know what to say to folks. And
• 1:28:02
  Speaker 2: I'm basically saying, here's what you say to them. And frankly,
• 1:28:06
  Speaker 2: here's how you talk to them. You first of all,
• 1:28:08
  Speaker 2: thank them for basically everything. doing what they do. Think
• 1:28:11
  Speaker 2: about this, Chuck. Rural America, it's a place where most
• 1:28:14
  Speaker 2: of your food comes from. It impacts most of the
• 1:28:16
  Speaker 2: water that you drink. It's most of the feedstock for
• 1:28:19
  Speaker 2: the energy that you consume comes from those rural areas.
• 1:28:22
  Speaker 2: It's the iconic landscapes of the country. It's 75% of
• 1:28:26
  Speaker 2: the landmass of the country. And it's a place that
• 1:28:29
  Speaker 2: disproportionately sends people into the military. What is not to
• 1:28:32
  Speaker 2: like about that part of the country, right? Why don't
• 1:28:35
  Speaker 2: we just start a conversation with that and.
• 1:28:39
  Speaker 1: Then say- Let me turn this back to a little
• 1:28:42
  Speaker 1: bit of state politics, a little bit of Iowa politics.
• 1:28:45
  Speaker 1: And if you were running for office, and if you
• 1:28:47
  Speaker 1: were in Josh Turek's shoes, what could you promise that
• 1:28:52
  Speaker 1: Congress could do to help Iowa farmers come January of 2027?
• 1:28:58
  Speaker 2: Just what I've outlined. First of all, I want a
• 1:29:02
  Speaker 2: seat on the Ag Committee. With that seat, I would
• 1:29:05
  Speaker 2: advocate for the 90% of farmers that currently under the
• 1:29:09
  Speaker 2: current system don't do well. Best year ever, 50% lost money, 40%
• 1:29:14
  Speaker 2: made money, but the majority of money they made for
• 1:29:15
  Speaker 2: their family came from off-farm income. That is not a
• 1:29:18
  Speaker 2: system that's working for 90%. I'm going to go to Congress.
• 1:29:21
  Speaker 2: I'm not going to bash the 10%. They're doing a service.
• 1:29:25
  Speaker 2: They're creating a food secure nation.
• 1:29:27
  Speaker 1: God bless them.
• 1:29:28
  Speaker 2: But the 90% have been ignored. And I'm going to
• 1:29:30
  Speaker 2: go there and I'm going to suggest that there needs
• 1:29:33
  Speaker 2: to be a structure and system, a separate farm bill,
• 1:29:35
  Speaker 2: if you will, or a segment of the farm bill
• 1:29:37
  Speaker 2: that's dedicated to those, to create opportunities for those folks
• 1:29:41
  Speaker 2: to have multiple sources of income for what they're doing
• 1:29:43
  Speaker 2: on the farm. So the farm works harder, not the farmer.
• 1:29:46
  Speaker 2: That's what I would do. And I would also say,
• 1:29:48
  Speaker 2: you know, here's the issue is, Unfortunately, they severed the
• 1:29:54
  Speaker 2: important coalition to get a farm bill passed when they
• 1:29:57
  Speaker 2: did the reconciliation bill. They paid for it with SNAP cuts.
• 1:30:01
  Speaker 2: Interestingly enough, remember the 15 cents of every food dollar
• 1:30:04
  Speaker 2: that farmers get? Well, when you cut SNAP, guess what?
• 1:30:08
  Speaker 2: You're also cutting farm income. You're also impacting jobs at
• 1:30:10
  Speaker 2: the local grocery store.
• 1:30:11
  Speaker 1: No, this was the urban, rural. This was, frankly, goes
• 1:30:14
  Speaker 1: back to the 60s and 70s and the old sort
• 1:30:18
  Speaker 1: of urban dems and the ag dems. When it was
• 1:30:21
  Speaker 1: in the same party, they had to cut this deal. Now,
• 1:30:24
  Speaker 1: of course, these folks are in different political parties now.
• 1:30:29
  Speaker 1: But for the most part, this coalition had held together pre-Trump,
• 1:30:34
  Speaker 1: hadn't it? Absolutely. Absolutely.
• 1:30:36
  Speaker 2: And it was the only way of farming goods passed.
• 1:30:38
  Speaker 2: So now where are we? The reconciliation bill basically increased
• 1:30:42
  Speaker 2: reference prices for 22 commodities out of over 100 commodities
• 1:30:45
  Speaker 2: that are grown and raised. So 80-some commodities don't get
• 1:30:48
  Speaker 2: a benefit from this. Of the 22, there are really
• 1:30:50
  Speaker 2: only six major crops that get benefited. There's a significant
• 1:30:54
  Speaker 2: difference between the level of benefit that some of those
• 1:30:56
  Speaker 2: crops got versus other crops. For example, depending upon what
• 1:31:01
  Speaker 2: numbers you use, it could be anywhere from 4 to
• 1:31:03
  Speaker 2: 11 times the amount of support goes to the rice
• 1:31:06
  Speaker 2: and cotton person than it does to the corn and
• 1:31:09
  Speaker 2: soybean farmer. If you're Josh Turek, you're basically saying, hey,
• 1:31:13
  Speaker 2: who's voting for that from Iowa? That would be a
• 1:31:19
  Speaker 2: legitimate question. There may be good reasons for that distinction.
• 1:31:23
  Speaker 2: But the reality is it is a significant distinction, a
• 1:31:26
  Speaker 2: difference between commodities. And that's always been the problem with
• 1:31:31
  Speaker 2: the Farm Bill. The Farm Bill has always been regional
• 1:31:34
  Speaker 2: in terms of the disputes. It wasn't urban and rural.
• 1:31:37
  Speaker 1: Now it is. No, it used to, right. And that
• 1:31:39
  Speaker 1: was the whole point. It was a lot of North-South
• 1:31:43
  Speaker 1: fights over the years. Right, right.
• 1:31:47
  Speaker 2: Why, you know, absent the SNAP program, Why would somebody
• 1:31:52
  Speaker 2: who represents New York City or somebody who represents Minneapolis
• 1:31:58
  Speaker 2: or St.
• 1:32:00
  Speaker 1: Paul or Des Moines, for that matter? Let's talk about
• 1:32:07
  Speaker 1: rural Iowa, because I think it's pretty representative there. It's
• 1:32:11
  Speaker 1: probably somewhat representative of rural Kansas, rural Nebraska, and rural
• 1:32:15
  Speaker 1: South Dakota. And the reason I bring those up is
• 1:32:16
  Speaker 1: all four are semi-competitive to very competitive, depending on your
• 1:32:20
  Speaker 1: point of view. And they're all competitive because the ag
• 1:32:25
  Speaker 1: industry is not happy with this administration. But the question
• 1:32:29
  Speaker 1: I have is, are the folks that feel as if
• 1:32:32
  Speaker 1: this administration's let them down, and they didn't trust the
• 1:32:35
  Speaker 1: Democrats on this, so they gave a lot more benefit
• 1:32:38
  Speaker 1: of doubt to the right, how up for grabs are they?
• 1:32:41
  Speaker 1: What's your expectation? Are these flippable? Or are these folks
• 1:32:47
  Speaker 1: you suspect are just not going to show up? Or
• 1:32:51
  Speaker 1: maybe they show up for Rob Sand and Ashley Hinson,
• 1:32:54
  Speaker 1: but maybe– I don't know. What's your sense of that situation?
• 1:33:00
  Speaker 1: And how would you politically try to woo a– somebody
• 1:33:08
  Speaker 1: who's been voting red for the last 20 years, assuming
• 1:33:11
  Speaker 1: that the Democrats didn't care about their issues?
• 1:33:16
  Speaker 2: Well, I think there are different categories in response to
• 1:33:21
  Speaker 2: your question. I mean, I think there are a number
• 1:33:24
  Speaker 2: of voters that traditionally would have voted for a Republican
• 1:33:27
  Speaker 2: that are just going to sit down because they're just
• 1:33:30
  Speaker 2: not happy about anything. And Iowa has the distinction of
• 1:33:34
  Speaker 2: having had one party control at the state level for
• 1:33:37
  Speaker 2: an extended period of time. And I think there's some
• 1:33:39
  Speaker 2: things that have been done during that one party control,
• 1:33:42
  Speaker 2: especially on rural schools.
• 1:33:44
  Speaker 1: Oh, the schools thing is what I'm hearing a lot about.
• 1:33:46
  Speaker 1: But look, I always I say, you know, everybody wants choice.
• 1:33:49
  Speaker 1: Where are you?
• 1:33:50
  Speaker 2: Where's the choice in rural America? Yeah, there's private private.
• 1:33:54
  Speaker 2: schools in rural America. The school issue is an issue.
• 1:33:59
  Speaker 2: The Medicaid cuts and the way in which the Medicaid
• 1:34:02
  Speaker 2: system has been worked and operated here in Iowa is
• 1:34:04
  Speaker 2: also a sore point. There are those voters who basically say,
• 1:34:08
  Speaker 2: you know what? I'm busy. I'm just not going to.
• 1:34:12
  Speaker 2: I'm I'm not going to show up this time. So
• 1:34:14
  Speaker 2: there's a subset of people like that. Then there are
• 1:34:18
  Speaker 2: some people who will vote and they're going to vote
• 1:34:21
  Speaker 2: because they're not happy with what's happening at the state level.
• 1:34:26
  Speaker 2: And I think that those people could very well be
• 1:34:28
  Speaker 2: ticket splitters where they basically start at one place and
• 1:34:31
  Speaker 2: move back and forth. Right.
• 1:34:41
  Speaker 1: Between us, I think that's Turek's, I say between us
• 1:34:43
  Speaker 1: as if somebody's not listening. I think that's Turek's biggest
• 1:34:46
  Speaker 1: challenge is that I just don't think there's going to be,
• 1:34:48
  Speaker 1: I think Sand's going to win over some Republican voters,
• 1:34:51
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure that they're going to do it twice.
• 1:34:53
  Speaker 2: Well, Josh, I mean, he's got an incredibly compelling personal story.
• 1:34:59
  Speaker 1: 100%.
• 1:35:00
  Speaker 2: His challenge is he's not as well known as Rob. Now,
• 1:35:02
  Speaker 2: Rob's been around for eight years. He's been traveling the state.
• 1:35:05
  Speaker 2: He's been working hard. And that's, you know, at the
• 1:35:06
  Speaker 2: end of the day, people, that's what they want to
• 1:35:08
  Speaker 2: know that you're working hard for the job. And he's
• 1:35:11
  Speaker 2: established a relationship so people don't look at him as
• 1:35:13
  Speaker 2: a Democrat. You know, he's quirky enough that they look
• 1:35:17
  Speaker 2: at him as Rob.
• 1:35:18
  Speaker 1: No, he's Rob Sand. No, you're absolutely right. It's sort
• 1:35:22
  Speaker 1: of like, yeah, he's quirky, but he's sort of like,
• 1:35:24
  Speaker 1: as Iowa might say, he's our quirky. Yeah.
• 1:35:26
  Speaker 2: You know, he's shooting that deer in the parks in
• 1:35:29
  Speaker 2: Des Moines. Well, you know, that's a pretty impressive thing
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 2: he did.
• 1:35:34
  Speaker 1: And yeah, he's one of us. Right.
• 1:35:37
  Speaker 2: Josh doesn't necessarily have that. And he has to create
• 1:35:41
  Speaker 2: a relationship with Iowans, which he's trying to do. And
• 1:35:45
  Speaker 2: then he has to draw a sharper contrast, I think,
• 1:35:47
  Speaker 2: between himself and Representative.
• 1:35:52
  Speaker 1: Henson in order.
• 1:35:54
  Speaker 2: To get people who might be on the fence, who
• 1:35:56
  Speaker 2: might be disgruntled with the current system to say, OK,
• 1:36:00
  Speaker 2: I'm going to show them. I'm going to vote for
• 1:36:01
  Speaker 2: this guy because you know what? He's working for it.
• 1:36:05
  Speaker 2: He's really overcome some amazing things. And he's got a
• 1:36:08
  Speaker 2: strategy and a platform that I can relate to. I
• 1:36:13
  Speaker 2: think that's the real challenge. And that's why when you
• 1:36:16
  Speaker 2: look at the polling, if you can believe the polling,
• 1:36:19
  Speaker 2: Rob is doing a little bit better because he's had
• 1:36:21
  Speaker 2: that long-going relationship. But it is definitely a competitive race.
• 1:36:25
  Speaker 2: There's no question about it. And the one thing that's
• 1:36:28
  Speaker 2: interesting is normally Republicans have had a better ground game
• 1:36:33
  Speaker 2: I don't know. This time, that may not be the case.
• 1:36:37
  Speaker 1: This feels like this is what happens when, you know,
• 1:36:40
  Speaker 1: it's funny, and look, this is not your party, so
• 1:36:44
  Speaker 1: I don't expect you to know what's going on on
• 1:36:45
  Speaker 1: the inside. But it does feel as if when Kim
• 1:36:49
  Speaker 1: Reynolds endorsed DeSantis, it severed her from the Trump wing
• 1:36:55
  Speaker 1: of the party. And I just wonder how much that,
• 1:37:00
  Speaker 1: and then Feenstra loses, So there isn't sort of the
• 1:37:04
  Speaker 1: quote-unquote establishment in charge, right? You have this sort of
• 1:37:08
  Speaker 1: outsider candidate at the top of the ticket running the party.
• 1:37:13
  Speaker 1: It strikes me that that's probably why they're having a
• 1:37:16
  Speaker 1: hard time with putting together their normal ground game because
• 1:37:19
  Speaker 1: the normal folks aren't running the show. Is that what
• 1:37:22
  Speaker 1: it looks to me? I mean, you're a little closer
• 1:37:25
  Speaker 1: than I am. Yeah, well, they don't know. They don't know.
• 1:37:30
  Speaker 1: They don't know their nominee, right?
• 1:37:32
  Speaker 2: They knew Randy, right? Randy had been around for a while.
• 1:37:35
  Speaker 2: He'd been a state senator. They knew him.
• 1:37:39
  Speaker 1: They don't know this guy.
• 1:37:40
  Speaker 2: And Rob's done a pretty good job of emphasizing that
• 1:37:45
  Speaker 2: he's from Kansas.
• 1:37:46
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I think that that's one of those you're like,
• 1:37:49
  Speaker 1: you know what Iowans really care about? Iowa. Good luck
• 1:37:52
  Speaker 1: not being from, I mean, look, you had to, you constantly,
• 1:37:56
  Speaker 1: I mean, you were born in Iowa. You're a Pittsburgh guy.
• 1:37:59
  Speaker 1: It probably took a while for you to make Iowans
• 1:38:02
  Speaker 1: think you're an Iowan, right?
• 1:38:03
  Speaker 2: Well, two things. One, I married right. I mean, I
• 1:38:07
  Speaker 2: married an Iowa girl and she was terrific and is terrific.
• 1:38:10
  Speaker 2: And I wore a sweatshirt that said I didn't get,
• 1:38:13
  Speaker 2: I wasn't born in Iowa, but I got here as
• 1:38:14
  Speaker 2: fast as I could. And I was a small town mayor.
• 1:38:18
  Speaker 2: And so that, that really made a difference for people.
• 1:38:21
  Speaker 2: I wasn't coming from Des Moines. Yeah, I was a lawyer,
• 1:38:24
  Speaker 2: but he's a small-town mayor. He must be okay. And
• 1:38:30
  Speaker 2: it was similar in 1998.
• 1:38:32
  Speaker 1: That's interesting. Do you think you might not have ever
• 1:38:34
  Speaker 1: won if you had been from Des Moines? Oh, no.
• 1:38:37
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't have won.
• 1:38:40
  Speaker 2: It was one-party control for an extended period of time
• 1:38:42
  Speaker 2: in 1998, and people were the same kind of not
• 1:38:44
  Speaker 2: happy with.
• 1:38:48
  Speaker 1: Way things were.
• 1:38:49
  Speaker 2: And we, there were education issues again. And I came
• 1:38:51
  Speaker 2: along and, uh, and, you know, and Jim Lightfoot, God
• 1:38:54
  Speaker 2: bless him. You know, he, he didn't really, he was,
• 1:38:56
  Speaker 2: he didn't, it's like Randy, he didn't really work for
• 1:38:58
  Speaker 2: the job. And I was out there, you know, Chrissy
• 1:39:01
  Speaker 2: was out there and Sally Peterson was out there and
• 1:39:03
  Speaker 2: we just, we worked hard.
• 1:39:04
  Speaker 1: We really worked hard. Then people said, well, you know what?
• 1:39:07
  Speaker 1: We'll just give him a chance. You know, it's tough
• 1:39:09
  Speaker 1: to have that Washington title in front of you and
• 1:39:11
  Speaker 1: become governor. I mean, it's not something, you know, it's
• 1:39:14
  Speaker 1: a little easier to have the member of Congress title
• 1:39:18
  Speaker 1: if you're running for Senate than it is for governor.
• 1:39:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's been my experience that folks who run from
• 1:39:23
  Speaker 2: that congressional seat don't really understand the full breadth of
• 1:39:26
  Speaker 2: the state. They understand their congressional district very well because
• 1:39:29
  Speaker 2: they spend a lot of time there. But, you know,
• 1:39:31
  Speaker 2: the state is big. And what's happening in northwest Iowa
• 1:39:35
  Speaker 2: is different than what happens in southeast Iowa, which is
• 1:39:38
  Speaker 2: very different than northeast Iowa.
• 1:39:41
  Speaker 1: I would say I was raised basically in Iowa, but
• 1:39:43
  Speaker 1: really it was in eastern Iowa. My dad grew up
• 1:39:45
  Speaker 1: in Waterloo. All the family was in Cedar Rapids. And
• 1:39:48
  Speaker 1: when I, as an adult, started to spend more time
• 1:39:50
  Speaker 1: in western Iowa, you really– I mean it is truly–
• 1:39:56
  Speaker 1: it's just different. Sure, it's more the same than on
• 1:40:00
  Speaker 1: certain things. But eastern Iowa and western Iowa definitely are very–
• 1:40:05
  Speaker 1: And you do see the Eastern Iowa candidates struggle on
• 1:40:07
  Speaker 1: the other side.
• 1:40:08
  Speaker 2: Well, there's a significant issue that's going on in Iowa
• 1:40:11
  Speaker 2: that sort of undercuts everything, which is that we're tired
• 1:40:15
  Speaker 2: of seeing our kids leave. So I've been asking Iowans
• 1:40:19
  Speaker 2: about population growth. And I've said from 1980 to 2020,
• 1:40:24
  Speaker 2: how much has Iowa grown as a percentage? And normally
• 1:40:29
  Speaker 2: they say, well, it hasn't grown at all. It's grown
• 1:40:31
  Speaker 2: a couple of percentage points. I said it was 9.4%
• 1:40:34
  Speaker 2: growth in 40 years. And they go, oh, well, that's
• 1:40:38
  Speaker 2: better than I thought. And then I say, well, wait
• 1:40:40
  Speaker 2: a minute. Let's take a tour of the neighborhood and
• 1:40:42
  Speaker 2: see how other states have done during that same period.
• 1:40:44
  Speaker 2: South Dakota is 29%. Nebraska is 26%. Missouri is 25%.
• 1:40:49
  Speaker 2: Illinois is 11%. Wisconsin, 25%. And Minnesota is 40%. So
• 1:40:54
  Speaker 2: you have to ask yourself, well, it's obviously not the
• 1:40:56
  Speaker 2: weather because we all have the same weather. It's not
• 1:40:59
  Speaker 2: the tax structure because, you know, South Dakota doesn't have
• 1:41:01
  Speaker 2: any taxes and Minnesota's got a lot of taxes. But
• 1:41:03
  Speaker 2: so it's not that. What is it? What's going on
• 1:41:06
  Speaker 2: in our state that makes it so that we are
• 1:41:09
  Speaker 2: growing at one half, one quarter, one third the rate
• 1:41:12
  Speaker 2: of other states? And I think that's fundamentally Iowans are
• 1:41:16
  Speaker 2: not happy with the inability to make the case. When
• 1:41:21
  Speaker 2: I was governor, about nearly one half of the growth
• 1:41:24
  Speaker 2: that did take place took place in the period of
• 1:41:26
  Speaker 2: time when Chet and I were governors. The Census Bureau
• 1:41:30
  Speaker 2: came into my office and said, you know, you've done
• 1:41:32
  Speaker 2: something that hadn't been done in 70 years in this state.
• 1:41:34
  Speaker 1: I said, what is that?
• 1:41:35
  Speaker 2: They said, we reversed the out migration. You know, we
• 1:41:39
  Speaker 2: had some policies that were inviting. We had policies that
• 1:41:42
  Speaker 2: were exciting to the Vision Iowa program and the wind
• 1:41:46
  Speaker 2: energy program and, you know, early childhood stuff we did.
• 1:41:50
  Speaker 1: People.
• 1:41:51
  Speaker 2: liked it, which is why we went from one party
• 1:41:55
  Speaker 2: control in 1998, a voter registration edge of about 100,000
• 1:42:00
  Speaker 2: on the Republican side. In eight years, I was replaced
• 1:42:03
  Speaker 2: by a Democrat, first time in the history of the state.
• 1:42:07
  Speaker 2: He had a Democratic legislature, which was the first time
• 1:42:09
  Speaker 2: that occurred with a Democratic governor in 44 years, and
• 1:42:12
  Speaker 2: we had the voter registration edge. you know, it matters.
• 1:42:17
  Speaker 2: It matters who's in charge and it matters the job
• 1:42:19
  Speaker 2: that you do. And if you do a pretty good
• 1:42:21
  Speaker 2: job and you're in charge and you don't go too far,
• 1:42:23
  Speaker 2: too far, too fast, you bring the people along with you.
• 1:42:27
  Speaker 2: They're willing to give you, you know, a lot of support.
• 1:42:32
  Speaker 2: And I think right now the state's just in a
• 1:42:34
  Speaker 2: place where people aren't happy. And generally when they aren't happy,
• 1:42:39
  Speaker 2: they vote for change.
• 1:42:40
  Speaker 1: We'll see. Why do you think I look, I, I,
• 1:42:44
  Speaker 1: I have, I have two schools of thought when it
• 1:42:48
  Speaker 1: comes to what makes a swing state. What makes a
• 1:42:51
  Speaker 1: state purple? What makes it red or blue? Now, I'm
• 1:42:54
  Speaker 1: of the belief, I'm a purist on democracy. I think
• 1:42:57
  Speaker 1: every state has a 50% fulcrum. It's your job as
• 1:43:01
  Speaker 1: a candidate to figure it out. Whether that's Idaho, Vermont,
• 1:43:06
  Speaker 1: or anywhere in between. I've always thought Iowa, I've always
• 1:43:12
  Speaker 1: believed it was the caucuses that created a mindset with
• 1:43:17
  Speaker 1: the Iowa voter that they take every election a little
• 1:43:20
  Speaker 1: more seriously, that they don't put partisan identification over everything else.
• 1:43:30
  Speaker 1: If you look at New Hampshire and Iowa and their
• 1:43:33
  Speaker 1: dominance with the presidential primary selection process, they also ended
• 1:43:36
  Speaker 1: up becoming swing states. Demographically, they don't look like any
• 1:43:39
  Speaker 1: other of the swing states, the battleground states we see.
• 1:43:43
  Speaker 1: To me, it's because, well, you have so much time
• 1:43:48
  Speaker 1: that both parties spend in the state, they actually get
• 1:43:50
  Speaker 1: to know every part of the state, and it makes
• 1:43:52
  Speaker 1: voters feel as if they have a true choice. So
• 1:43:56
  Speaker 1: my thesis has always been the caucuses created Iowa as
• 1:44:01
  Speaker 1: a swing state, or certainly reinforced it with voters, and
• 1:44:05
  Speaker 1: it just creates that civic, just raises the civic floor,
• 1:44:10
  Speaker 1: I guess, might be a way to do it. is
• 1:44:15
  Speaker 1: in your head in 2028, would you be advising a
• 1:44:18
  Speaker 1: democratic presidential candidate to be out there? Um, uh, because
• 1:44:22
  Speaker 1: it takes a little bit of work to make it
• 1:44:23
  Speaker 1: a swing state, but they may look at the math
• 1:44:25
  Speaker 1: and say, is six electoral votes worth it?
• 1:44:32
  Speaker 2: Well, um, that's a good question. Um, and it's not
• 1:44:40
  Speaker 2: one that, uh, It's one that I might have a
• 1:44:44
  Speaker 2: slightly different answer than you might expect. First of all,
• 1:44:50
  Speaker 2: I get what you say about the caucus, but I
• 1:44:51
  Speaker 2: also think the caucus essentially made the Democratic Party a
• 1:44:55
  Speaker 2: lazy party.
• 1:44:56
  Speaker 1: It shouldn't have, but I guess it did. It did.
• 1:45:02
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree.
• 1:45:05
  Speaker 2: That candidate who would be coming into Iowa... Um, we'll,
• 1:45:09
  Speaker 2: I think, find a stronger democratic party in the last
• 1:45:11
  Speaker 2: couple of years, uh, but still work, work, work to do.
• 1:45:15
  Speaker 2: You know, it's going to be a competitive, I think
• 1:45:17
  Speaker 2: it's going to be a pretty competitive race. So six
• 1:45:19
  Speaker 2: electoral votes might be pretty important.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 1: True.
• 1:45:22
  Speaker 2: Right. And, and, uh, depending upon, you know, how it
• 1:45:28
  Speaker 2: ultimately comes down, who are the two or three that
• 1:45:30
  Speaker 2: are left and what their, what their characteristics are or
• 1:45:35
  Speaker 2: what their, what their, you know, what their, very, very
• 1:45:38
  Speaker 2: progressive or very, you know, or more moderate, those six
• 1:45:42
  Speaker 2: votes may be extremely important. So, I would suggest that
• 1:45:46
  Speaker 2: they may want to develop relationships with folks. And I
• 1:45:50
  Speaker 2: think some people are doing that. They're helping Rob, they're
• 1:45:53
  Speaker 2: helping Josh, they're helping the Democratic candidates and developing relationship.
• 1:45:57
  Speaker 2: And they're showing up, several of them. And they're doing,
• 1:46:01
  Speaker 2: you know, they're spending a day here, two days, which
• 1:46:03
  Speaker 2: is nice. but they're not going to be anywhere near.
• 1:46:07
  Speaker 2: It's not going to be anywhere near us. I mean,
• 1:46:08
  Speaker 2: I can remember that, you know, this is the famous
• 1:46:11
  Speaker 2: classic 98.
• 1:46:12
  Speaker 1: How many people were always wanting to help you out? Right.
• 1:46:16
  Speaker 2: I was 23 points behind this time at this point
• 1:46:18
  Speaker 2: in time in the race, with the exception of Al
• 1:46:21
  Speaker 2: Gore and Bill Bradley were helpful.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 1:46:24
  Speaker 2: But that was, that was it.
• 1:46:26
  Speaker 1: And I got 25,000 dollars from the DGA.
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 2: Okay.
• 1:46:27
  Speaker 1: Anyway, But, you know, who remembers? Who remembers? Yeah. No,
• 1:46:38
  Speaker 1: you'll never remember. No, I always say this. One thing
• 1:46:41
  Speaker 1: I've learned about politicians, and I learned this from as
• 1:46:45
  Speaker 1: a reporter and consultants, which is. Tell me about their
• 1:46:48
  Speaker 1: first experience in how they won, and I will tell
• 1:46:51
  Speaker 1: you how they always believe they never forget that first experience.
• 1:46:55
  Speaker 2: No, that's a little detail. It was magical. I mean,
• 1:46:58
  Speaker 2: very few candidates close the gap. In three or four
• 1:47:01
  Speaker 2: weeks of that magnitude. Anyway, President Obama, the best caucus
• 1:47:07
  Speaker 2: story ever. I'm on Marine One with him. We're traveling
• 1:47:12
  Speaker 2: to Newton to an event. And Gibbs basically says to him,
• 1:47:16
  Speaker 2: he says, tell Tom about the cell phone story. And
• 1:47:19
  Speaker 2: he's looking out the window and he goes, you know,
• 1:47:21
  Speaker 2: I spent 89 days in this state. 89 days campaigning.
• 1:47:28
  Speaker 2: And he said, one night, at the end of a
• 1:47:30
  Speaker 2: long night, I get in the car, and an aide
• 1:47:33
  Speaker 2: that's probably half his age hands him a cell phone
• 1:47:36
  Speaker 2: and says, Senator, here are some calls you've got to make.
• 1:47:40
  Speaker 2: And the senator says, well, who are these people? Are
• 1:47:43
  Speaker 2: they labor leaders? Are they county chairs?
• 1:47:46
  Speaker 1: Who are they? Well, they're high school students, sir. Wow,
• 1:47:49
  Speaker 1: he said.
• 1:47:50
  Speaker 2: I've had nine events today. I'm not going to call
• 1:47:53
  Speaker 2: high school students. And the agent's like, oh, sir, this
• 1:47:57
  Speaker 2: is really important. We think you're going to be the difference.
• 1:48:00
  Speaker 1: Please.
• 1:48:01
  Speaker 2: So he gets the phone. And you just know he's
• 1:48:05
  Speaker 2: not happy dialing the number. And he gets this young
• 1:48:08
  Speaker 2: lady on the phone. And he says, I forget what
• 1:48:11
  Speaker 2: her name was, Barbara, whatever. Barbara, this is Barack Obama.
• 1:48:15
  Speaker 2: I'd like to talk to you for just a minute
• 1:48:16
  Speaker 2: about the caucuses. And this young lady says, well, Barack,
• 1:48:22
  Speaker 2: not Senator. Well, Barack, I'm in a yearbook meeting. And
• 1:48:25
  Speaker 2: if you want to call me back in 20 minutes,
• 1:48:27
  Speaker 2: I'll be happy to talk to you then.
• 1:48:32
  Speaker 1: So, you know. That was the mentality, right? A little humility, huh? Well,
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 1: and that is.
• 1:48:38
  Speaker 2: What drove people crazy about the whole thing.
• 1:48:41
  Speaker 1: And, you know, frankly, it's going to happen in any state.
• 1:48:44
  Speaker 1: Of course. You know, South Carolina is going to have that.
• 1:48:47
  Speaker 2: I mean, and New Hampshire definitely has it.
• 1:48:51
  Speaker 1: And it's understandable. It's human nature, right?
• 1:48:53
  Speaker 2: You got all these people coming and it's, you know,
• 1:48:55
  Speaker 2: you want them to sign your book and you want
• 1:48:57
  Speaker 2: them to have your picture.
• 1:48:58
  Speaker 1: And it's... But.
• 1:49:01
  Speaker 2: It is the process that we put people through, and
• 1:49:05
  Speaker 2: it somehow, some way, shows the character of the individual
• 1:49:09
  Speaker 2: and shows the strengths and weaknesses.
• 1:49:11
  Speaker 1: Look, I'm a huge advocate of it. I'm sorry to
• 1:49:13
  Speaker 1: see it go. I understand why it's not going to
• 1:49:16
  Speaker 1: be resurrected. Not having a result for everybody to feel
• 1:49:22
  Speaker 1: good about two cycles in a row didn't help with
• 1:49:26
  Speaker 1: both 16 and 20. So I understand why it's not there.
• 1:49:31
  Speaker 1: I think though the loss of a truly rural majority
• 1:49:37
  Speaker 1: Midwestern state, sorry, Michigan, I'm not saying there aren't rural
• 1:49:40
  Speaker 1: parts of Michigan, there are rural parts of every state,
• 1:49:42
  Speaker 1: but we know what the candidates will do in Michigan.
• 1:49:45
  Speaker 1: They'll be in Detroit, they'll be in Grand Rapids, and
• 1:49:48
  Speaker 1: that's about it. And it is, I do think, and
• 1:49:53
  Speaker 1: I'm sure you feel this way, if you don't make
• 1:49:56
  Speaker 1: candidates learn how to talk to rural America, And look,
• 1:49:59
  Speaker 1: maybe in South Carolina, look, I think the Democratic Party's
• 1:50:02
  Speaker 1: problems in Mississippi and South Carolina are very similar to
• 1:50:06
  Speaker 1: me as their problems in a place like Kansas, South Dakota,
• 1:50:08
  Speaker 1: or in Iowa, which is rural blacks don't feel as
• 1:50:13
  Speaker 1: if the party cares and shows up. And you probably
• 1:50:16
  Speaker 1: ran into this in the Ag Department, didn't you?
• 1:50:19
  Speaker 2: Well, and we spent a lot of time in those
• 1:50:22
  Speaker 2: rural parts talking to folks, right? Yeah. I mean, I
• 1:50:26
  Speaker 2: would encourage any candidate who's thinking about running for president,
• 1:50:29
  Speaker 2: to spend time in those rural places because you're not
• 1:50:33
  Speaker 2: going to be president unless you squeeze the margins in
• 1:50:37
  Speaker 2: those rural places. I mean, we just can't get beat
• 1:50:39
  Speaker 2: 80-20 in these rural places. If we get beat 60-40,
• 1:50:42
  Speaker 2: it's a whole different situation. And the whole notion that
• 1:50:46
  Speaker 2: somehow you're going to overcome the gap, I mean, there
• 1:50:49
  Speaker 2: are a lot of rural counties. And, you know, if
• 1:50:52
  Speaker 2: you lose 1,000 by 10, well, Al Gore in 2000,
• 1:50:53
  Speaker 2: he won Polk County by 30,000 votes, or 10,000 votes.
• 1:51:01
  Speaker 2: And he lost Sioux County by 10,000 votes. I mean,
• 1:51:09
  Speaker 2: you know, you.
• 1:51:10
  Speaker 1: Got to play in that.
• 1:51:12
  Speaker 2: And Democrats have to have, and I think what we've
• 1:51:15
  Speaker 2: outlined here today is a way of messaging by saying, look,
• 1:51:20
  Speaker 2: I get it. And the other side deserves credit for
• 1:51:22
  Speaker 2: figuring out lower taxes and no regulation. And, you know,
• 1:51:26
  Speaker 2: shame on us for not having something to offer to you.
• 1:51:29
  Speaker 2: that would at least give you pause.
• 1:51:32
  Speaker 1: Well, now we do.
• 1:51:34
  Speaker 2: We want to help you make that farm the most
• 1:51:37
  Speaker 2: profitable place it can possibly be, recognizing that the current
• 1:51:42
  Speaker 2: system is not designed for your kind of farm.
• 1:51:44
  Speaker 1: But you know what?
• 1:51:45
  Speaker 2: The world needs your kind of farm. The country needs
• 1:51:47
  Speaker 2: your kind of farm. Your community needs your kind of farm.
• 1:51:52
  Speaker 1: Let me leave you with this one issue, which is
• 1:51:55
  Speaker 1: data centers. Because the land that these guys are going
• 1:51:58
  Speaker 1: to want is in rural America. Would you recommend to
• 1:52:03
  Speaker 1: a farmer with a lot of land to lease a
• 1:52:06
  Speaker 1: piece of their land for a data center as a
• 1:52:09
  Speaker 1: way of generating extra income for their farm? I would
• 1:52:13
  Speaker 1: rather them.
• 1:52:15
  Speaker 2: Basically, take that same acreage and create a local regional
• 1:52:18
  Speaker 2: food system opportunity out of it or energy opportunity out
• 1:52:22
  Speaker 2: of it, because I think it would be better for
• 1:52:25
  Speaker 2: the rural community to do that.
• 1:52:27
  Speaker 1: And if you lose that land to a data center,
• 1:52:29
  Speaker 1: you don't get it back. Well, it's the 220 million
• 1:52:32
  Speaker 1: acres that we've lost. I mean, think about that.
• 1:52:35
  Speaker 2: That is basically 25, almost 25 percent of the landmass
• 1:52:39
  Speaker 2: that was in farming that's no longer in farming today.
• 1:52:42
  Speaker 2: And just in the lifetime of us, our professional life. Right.
• 1:52:47
  Speaker 1: I mean, it.
• 1:52:48
  Speaker 2: It's a significant loss of real estate. This is really
• 1:52:53
  Speaker 2: good soil that could be producing a lot of stuff.
• 1:52:56
  Speaker 2: If we had a transition to a bio-based economy where
• 1:52:59
  Speaker 2: we're essentially transitioning everything that's grown on that farm, everything
• 1:53:03
  Speaker 2: that's raised on that farm is converted into something more valuable,
• 1:53:06
  Speaker 2: then it is a completely different economic circumstance. Frankly, to
• 1:53:09
  Speaker 2: your libertarian friends- Basically say, well, that's how you reduce
• 1:53:15
  Speaker 2: the amount of subsidies. You make it so that they
• 1:53:18
  Speaker 2: can actually make a living from the doggone thing, right?
• 1:53:21
  Speaker 2: Right now, best year ever, best year ever, 90% of
• 1:53:26
  Speaker 2: farms either lost money or the majority of money for
• 1:53:28
  Speaker 2: their family came from off-farm income. That is not a
• 1:53:31
  Speaker 2: system that's working as it should.
• 1:53:35
  Speaker 1: All right, let me get you out of here on this.
• 1:53:36
  Speaker 1: I've said Iowa is sort of the blue wave state, meaning-
• 1:53:40
  Speaker 1: You'll know how big the wave is based on how
• 1:53:42
  Speaker 1: well Democrats do in Iowa, that it's, you know, the
• 1:53:45
  Speaker 1: governor's race feels like we think we know what direction
• 1:53:48
  Speaker 1: that's headed for all the ways we talked about. Nothing
• 1:53:51
  Speaker 1: can count your chickens. But what's your definition of a
• 1:53:56
  Speaker 1: successful night for Democrats in Iowa?
• 1:54:00
  Speaker 2: Well, obviously, the governor's race is critically important. Josh's race
• 1:54:09
  Speaker 2: remains competitive and it's, uh, you know, it's too close
• 1:54:13
  Speaker 2: to call, uh, circumstance, I suspect. And maybe one or
• 1:54:17
  Speaker 2: two of the congressional candidates that is running in a
• 1:54:20
  Speaker 2: competitive race actually wins. Uh, and, and maybe the legislature,
• 1:54:24
  Speaker 2: maybe the Democrats pick up a few seats in the legislature,
• 1:54:27
  Speaker 2: but I will tell you, uh, I caution all of
• 1:54:31
  Speaker 2: this based on two things. One, because I was 23
• 1:54:34
  Speaker 2: points behind and I ended up winning. So, uh, You know,
• 1:54:38
  Speaker 2: the Republican candidate for governor, people are going to get
• 1:54:41
  Speaker 2: to know him. And, you know, he comes across pretty well. So,
• 1:54:46
  Speaker 2: you know, they have four debates. Who knows what happens
• 1:54:48
  Speaker 2: during those debates? And then secondly, there is a lot
• 1:54:53
  Speaker 2: of money that's going to come into the state. And
• 1:54:57
  Speaker 2: that means you're going to get something in the mail
• 1:54:59
  Speaker 2: every single day. You're going to get something on your
• 1:55:02
  Speaker 2: cell phone every single minute. And you can't turn your
• 1:55:05
  Speaker 2: TV on without seeing something horrible being said by somebody
• 1:55:09
  Speaker 2: about any one of those candidates. So this thing is not–
• 1:55:15
  Speaker 2: it's going to be very competitive and very, very tough
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 2: for Democrats.
• 1:55:18
  Speaker 1: Were you surprised that Zach Nung and Marianne Miller-Meeks joined
• 1:55:21
  Speaker 1: Democrats on that war powers resolution?
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 2: No.
• 1:55:24
  Speaker 1: No.
• 1:55:25
  Speaker 2: No, I mean, that's a reflection of the fact that
• 1:55:27
  Speaker 2: they're in competitive races. But, you know, it's an interesting
• 1:55:31
  Speaker 2: vote that they took. Because, you know, the flip side
• 1:55:34
  Speaker 2: of that vote is, well, wait a minute. You know,
• 1:55:39
  Speaker 2: what has changed in a relatively short period of time?
• 1:55:42
  Speaker 1: Why now and not before?
• 1:55:43
  Speaker 2: Yeah, why now and not before? Is it because of politics? Well,
• 1:55:48
  Speaker 2: that's not what we're looking for. I mean, people are
• 1:55:51
  Speaker 2: looking for somebody that's, they're looking for authentic, right? That's
• 1:55:55
  Speaker 2: what Rob's selling. He said, I'm authentic. Don't put a
• 1:56:00
  Speaker 2: label on me, Democrat, Republican. I'm Rob Sand. Here's what
• 1:56:04
  Speaker 2: I believe. And I'm going to show up and I'm
• 1:56:07
  Speaker 2: going to do 100 town hall meetings. And you know what?
• 1:56:09
  Speaker 2: I'm going to give the microphone to a Republican and
• 1:56:11
  Speaker 2: they may ask me a really tough question.
• 1:56:12
  Speaker 1: But you know what?
• 1:56:13
  Speaker 2: That's what I want the job. And that's the nature
• 1:56:17
  Speaker 2: of the job. I think that's what, I mean, that's
• 1:56:19
  Speaker 2: why people are drawn to Rob. I think he's authentic.
• 1:56:22
  Speaker 1: Quirky. Look, he is and he, You just want more
• 1:56:25
  Speaker 1: politicians to do that. I just want to have more
• 1:56:27
  Speaker 1: access to them as well. And it doesn't matter whether
• 1:56:30
  Speaker 1: I agree with them.
• 1:56:31
  Speaker 2: If he wins and, you know, Phil Weiser in Colorado,
• 1:56:36
  Speaker 2: same kind of deal. If he wins and all of
• 1:56:38
  Speaker 2: a sudden you guys are going to start talking about, well,
• 1:56:41
  Speaker 2: why did they win?
• 1:56:42
  Speaker 1: Well, they were authentic. And then who saw they ran different.
• 1:56:45
  Speaker 1: That's right. No, in this world of AI, I think
• 1:56:48
  Speaker 1: that's going to even matter more than ever.
• 1:56:51
  Speaker 2: When I briefly ran, I said, I'm not a rock star,
• 1:56:55
  Speaker 2: but I was rock solid. Of course, that wasn't enough.
• 1:57:00
  Speaker 1: It's funny, the attention economy punishes your type of politics.
• 1:57:07
  Speaker 1: It's exactly the type of politics that people tell me
• 1:57:09
  Speaker 1: they actually want back. We have this asymmetric issue. The
• 1:57:15
  Speaker 1: Attention economy rewards your Marjorie Taylor Greene's, your AOC's. I
• 1:57:20
  Speaker 1: say this, I'm not, you know, they both have valid opinions.
• 1:57:23
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say they don't, but it rewards
• 1:57:25
  Speaker 1: that style of politicking. You're sort of very, and Rob,
• 1:57:32
  Speaker 1: you know, Rob doesn't go viral, his stuff. You're, you know,
• 1:57:35
  Speaker 1: and yet it's what people say they want. And when
• 1:57:39
  Speaker 1: they see it, they prefer it over this attention economy business. Well, we'll, we'll,
• 1:57:43
  Speaker 1: we'll see in November. Yeah, that's for sure. Battle box.
• 1:57:46
  Speaker 1: The ultimate, the ultimate, uh, the ultimate tell. Great to
• 1:57:50
  Speaker 1: talk with you, Tom. Appreciate it. All right. We're going
• 1:58:03
  Speaker 1: into the time machine and I know what you're thinking.
• 1:58:05
  Speaker 1: Aren't we in a time machine already? As, I was
• 1:58:08
  Speaker 1: just joking with my producer, between the weird cult ads
• 1:58:14
  Speaker 1: of Love Me and Tommy Tupperville and the Furries Senate
• 1:58:19
  Speaker 1: floor speech, as he said to me, Veep would have
• 1:58:24
  Speaker 1: rejected these ads. punchlines. It is. And sometimes you just
• 1:58:29
  Speaker 1: sit there and you're like, you know, if I tell
• 1:58:31
  Speaker 1: people what's going on, are they going to believe me
• 1:58:34
  Speaker 1: when I report this crazy? So, yeah, I think we
• 1:58:38
  Speaker 1: all wish we could have a time machine. But let's
• 1:58:41
  Speaker 1: go into the time machine. And this week, we're going
• 1:58:43
  Speaker 1: to go back to October 2nd, 1919 and to a
• 1:58:46
  Speaker 1: bedroom on the second floor of the White House where
• 1:58:49
  Speaker 1: something had happened to the president of the United States
• 1:58:51
  Speaker 1: that the American people were not going to be told about.
• 1:58:54
  Speaker 1: And look, this time machine, like all my time machines,
• 1:58:58
  Speaker 1: are not meant to just live in the past. There
• 1:59:01
  Speaker 1: is a very important current point that I want to
• 1:59:03
  Speaker 1: make with this episode. But let's go back. So here
• 1:59:07
  Speaker 1: we are. It's October 1919. Woodrow Wilson was 62 years old.
• 1:59:10
  Speaker 1: First World War just ended. And he had spent much
• 1:59:13
  Speaker 1: of the year in Europe negotiating the Treaty of Versailles.
• 1:59:16
  Speaker 1: and trying to create what he believed would be his
• 1:59:18
  Speaker 1: great legacy, the League of Nations. But Wilson had a
• 1:59:21
  Speaker 1: big political problem. The United States Senate had to ratify
• 1:59:24
  Speaker 1: the treaty and opposition was growing, right? We were a
• 1:59:28
  Speaker 1: super isolationist wing of the Republican Party back then. And
• 1:59:33
  Speaker 1: rather than leave the fight to Washington, Wilson decides he
• 1:59:36
  Speaker 1: needs to take his case directly to the people. So
• 1:59:39
  Speaker 1: this is 1919. There's no Air Force One. There's no television.
• 1:59:44
  Speaker 1: And radio is in its infant stages. So taking her
• 1:59:46
  Speaker 1: case to the country meant, whistle stop tour, folks. Hop
• 1:59:50
  Speaker 1: on a train. So Wilson embarked on an extraordinary speaking tour,
• 1:59:54
  Speaker 1: traveling something like 8,000 miles in three weeks, giving speech
• 1:59:58
  Speaker 1: after speech while his health was clearly deteriorating. He was exhausted.
• 2:00:02
  Speaker 1: He was suffering from headaches. He was having trouble sleeping.
• 2:00:06
  Speaker 1: But he kept going. On September 25th, he gave a
• 2:00:10
  Speaker 1: speech in Pueblo, Colorado. That night aboard the train, he collapsed.
• 2:00:14
  Speaker 1: The next morning, the rest of the tour was canceled
• 2:00:17
  Speaker 1: and Wilson was rushed back to Washington. Less than a
• 2:00:19
  Speaker 1: week later, on October 2nd, things got a whole lot worse.
• 2:00:22
  Speaker 1: That morning, Edith Wilson, the first lady, noticed something was
• 2:00:26
  Speaker 1: wrong with her husband's left hand. Wilson told her he
• 2:00:29
  Speaker 1: couldn't feel it. He tried to make his way to
• 2:00:31
  Speaker 1: the bathroom and he collapsed. His doctor, Kerry Grayson, was summoned.
• 2:00:35
  Speaker 1: And according to the White House usher who was there,
• 2:00:38
  Speaker 1: Grayson emerged after examining the president and said, my God,
• 2:00:42
  Speaker 1: the president is paralyzed. Woodrow Wilson had suffered a massive stroke.
• 2:00:47
  Speaker 1: His left side was paralyzed. His vision was impaired. And
• 2:00:49
  Speaker 1: at least initially, he needed help with some of the
• 2:00:52
  Speaker 1: most basic activities of daily life. The president of the
• 2:00:56
  Speaker 1: United States was severely incapacitated. the country was never told this.
• 2:01:02
  Speaker 1: Neither was Congress, neither was the press. In fact, most
• 2:01:06
  Speaker 1: of Wilson's own cabinet did not know the extent of
• 2:01:09
  Speaker 1: what had happened. Grayson issued a vague public bulletin describing
• 2:01:13
  Speaker 1: Wilson as a, quote, very sick man, but there was
• 2:01:15
  Speaker 1: no announcement that the president had suffered a stroke and
• 2:01:18
  Speaker 1: certainly no description of the paralysis. Instead, The White House
• 2:01:24
  Speaker 1: essentially closed around Woodrow Wilson. Edith Wilson and Grayson tightly
• 2:01:28
  Speaker 1: restricted access to him. For weeks, almost no government official
• 2:01:31
  Speaker 1: saw the president and presidential business increasingly flowed through Edith.
• 2:01:36
  Speaker 1: She determined which documents and questions were important enough to
• 2:01:39
  Speaker 1: bring to her husband, she claimed, and which ones weren't. Now,
• 2:01:43
  Speaker 1: this is where the story frequently gets turned into a
• 2:01:46
  Speaker 1: bit of historical trivia with Edith Wilson described as America's
• 2:01:49
  Speaker 1: first woman president. And I think that description is a
• 2:01:54
  Speaker 1: little much because it makes the whole thing sound almost amusing.
• 2:01:59
  Speaker 1: Edith always insisted she wasn't making presidential decisions. And she
• 2:02:04
  Speaker 1: there's an important distinction here. But years later, when she
• 2:02:07
  Speaker 1: described this period herself, she acknowledged that she decided what
• 2:02:11
  Speaker 1: was important and what was not, which felt like a
• 2:02:13
  Speaker 1: presidential decision. Right. Which matters should be presented to him.
• 2:02:17
  Speaker 1: So you don't have to be the person making the
• 2:02:18
  Speaker 1: final decision to have enormous power if you're the person
• 2:02:22
  Speaker 1: deciding which decisions ever reach the president. And nobody elected
• 2:02:27
  Speaker 1: Edith Wilson to anything. Inside the administration, the Secretary of State,
• 2:02:31
  Speaker 1: Robert Lansing, recognized the constitutional problem almost immediately. And in fact,
• 2:02:36
  Speaker 1: on October 6th, he raised the question of presidential incapacity.
• 2:02:41
  Speaker 1: The Constitution at the time said that if a president
• 2:02:44
  Speaker 1: was unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office,
• 2:02:47
  Speaker 1: those powers could pass to the vice president. But the
• 2:02:51
  Speaker 1: Constitution did not explain this. how or who got to
• 2:02:55
  Speaker 1: decide that the president was unable to do the functions.
• 2:03:00
  Speaker 1: Wilson's doctor wasn't going to declare him incapacitated. His family
• 2:03:04
  Speaker 1: certainly wasn't going to do it. The vice president, Thomas Marshall,
• 2:03:08
  Speaker 1: was extremely reluctant to assert presidential authority. He didn't want
• 2:03:11
  Speaker 1: to look like he was taking advantage of a sick
• 2:03:13
  Speaker 1: president and didn't want people thinking this was a coup.
• 2:03:17
  Speaker 1: And most of the people who might have challenged any
• 2:03:20
  Speaker 1: of this couldn't even get into the room to see Wilson.
• 2:03:24
  Speaker 1: That's how America ended up with this remarkable situation. Everybody
• 2:03:27
  Speaker 1: who actually knew how sick the president was had some
• 2:03:32
  Speaker 1: reason not to be the person who said publicly that
• 2:03:35
  Speaker 1: Woodrow Wilson could no longer serve. So as the weeks
• 2:03:38
  Speaker 1: went by, rumors naturally began to spread around D.C. Was
• 2:03:41
  Speaker 1: Wilson paralyzed? Could he even speak? Was he mentally competent?
• 2:03:47
  Speaker 1: Was he actually making decisions? Who's running the government? So finally,
• 2:03:50
  Speaker 1: with the rumors running rampant on December 5th, two senators
• 2:03:53
  Speaker 1: were allowed into Wilson's bedroom. Gilbert Hitchcock was a Democrat
• 2:03:57
  Speaker 1: and a Wilson ally, and Albert Fall was a Republican
• 2:04:00
  Speaker 1: and a Wilson opponent. Their visit became known around Washington
• 2:04:04
  Speaker 1: as the smelling committee because essentially they were being sent
• 2:04:08
  Speaker 1: to determine for themselves just how bad things were. Wilson
• 2:04:12
  Speaker 1: was positioned in bed in a way that concealed his
• 2:04:15
  Speaker 1: weakened side. At one point, Fall told the president that
• 2:04:18
  Speaker 1: he and others had been praying for him Wilson reportedly responded,
• 2:04:21
  Speaker 1: which way, Senator? It's a great line, but politically you
• 2:04:25
  Speaker 1: get why it mattered, right? Wilson could still land a
• 2:04:28
  Speaker 1: joke on a Republican opponent, and the senators left persuaded
• 2:04:32
  Speaker 1: that whatever had happened to him physically, his mind was
• 2:04:35
  Speaker 1: still functioning. And Woodrow Wilson remained president for another 17 months. Now,
• 2:04:40
  Speaker 1: he never fully recovered while in office, and a few
• 2:04:42
  Speaker 1: months later, he actually fired the Secretary of State, Robert Lansing,
• 2:04:45
  Speaker 1: in part because he thought Lansing was convening cabinet meetings.
• 2:04:50
  Speaker 1: during Wilson's incapacitation and thought that was inappropriate. So think
• 2:04:55
  Speaker 1: about that for a moment. The Secretary of State, who
• 2:04:56
  Speaker 1: had raised the question of whether the president was capable
• 2:04:59
  Speaker 1: of exercising presidential authority, gets fired by that president for
• 2:05:05
  Speaker 1: conducting government business while the president was unavailable. Well, America
• 2:05:11
  Speaker 1: got through that moment, but we didn't actually solve the
• 2:05:13
  Speaker 1: underlying problem. It came up again when Dwight Eisenhower suffered
• 2:05:17
  Speaker 1: a heart attack in 1955. He later underwent major surgery
• 2:05:20
  Speaker 1: and suffered a stroke himself. Eisenhower and Vice President Nixon
• 2:05:23
  Speaker 1: tried to work out their own understanding about what should
• 2:05:26
  Speaker 1: happen if Ike became incapacitated. But none of it was
• 2:05:30
  Speaker 1: constitutionally binding. A few years later, when Kennedy was assassinated
• 2:05:34
  Speaker 1: in 63, suddenly that hole in the Constitution became impossible
• 2:05:38
  Speaker 1: to ignore. So when Kennedy died, obviously he died quickly
• 2:05:42
  Speaker 1: in Dallas. But what if he hadn't? What if John
• 2:05:44
  Speaker 1: Kennedy had survived the shooting but suffered catastrophic brain damage
• 2:05:48
  Speaker 1: and couldn't tell anyone whether he was capable of serving?
• 2:05:51
  Speaker 1: Who decides whether Lyndon Johnson becomes the acting president? Well,
• 2:05:55
  Speaker 1: because of that open question and because, frankly, we had
• 2:05:58
  Speaker 1: a succession of this, Eisenhower in 55 and Kennedy in 63,
• 2:06:02
  Speaker 1: Congress finally acted. And in 1967, the states ratified the
• 2:06:05
  Speaker 1: infamous 25th Amendment, created a process for a president to
• 2:06:10
  Speaker 1: transfer power voluntarily, which presidents have since done temporarily when
• 2:06:14
  Speaker 1: undergoing medical procedures, right? But there's section four was designed
• 2:06:19
  Speaker 1: for the much more difficult situation. in which a president
• 2:06:23
  Speaker 1: can't or won't acknowledge his own inabilities, right? There's a
• 2:06:27
  Speaker 1: few things that can be done. One, a lot of
• 2:06:30
  Speaker 1: us know a lot about. And then there's another procedure
• 2:06:32
  Speaker 1: that many people don't know about. So the vice president
• 2:06:35
  Speaker 1: and majority of the cabinet can declare the president unable
• 2:06:38
  Speaker 1: to perform the duties of the office, making the vice
• 2:06:40
  Speaker 1: president the acting president. If the president fights that determination,
• 2:06:44
  Speaker 1: the process becomes considerably more difficult. Ultimately, it takes two-thirds
• 2:06:48
  Speaker 1: of both houses of Congress to keep the president sidelined. Now,
• 2:06:52
  Speaker 1: in nearly 60 years, Section 4 has never been invoked.
• 2:06:56
  Speaker 1: But there's something else in this, in Section 4, that
• 2:06:58
  Speaker 1: seems particularly relevant today. The amendment doesn't say the vice
• 2:07:02
  Speaker 1: president must act with the cabinet. The amendment actually allows
• 2:07:06
  Speaker 1: Congress to create another body to participate in determining presidential inability.
• 2:07:13
  Speaker 1: Guess what Congress has never done? They've never created that body.
• 2:07:19
  Speaker 1: They can do it right now. Do you think there's
• 2:07:22
  Speaker 1: a justification to do this? So here we did. We
• 2:07:26
  Speaker 1: fixed a huge constitutional problem after Woodrow Wilson. But I'm
• 2:07:31
  Speaker 1: not sure we fixed the entire problem because the 25th
• 2:07:34
  Speaker 1: Amendment still depends on something that was an incredibly short
• 2:07:37
  Speaker 1: supply in Wilson's White House. And it's incredibly short supply
• 2:07:40
  Speaker 1: in Trump's White House. Candor from the people surrounding the president.
• 2:07:47
  Speaker 1: And that brings us to the present, because America has
• 2:07:49
  Speaker 1: now gone through something we've never experienced before. Two consecutive
• 2:07:53
  Speaker 1: presidents serving into their late 70s and early 80s. Joe
• 2:07:56
  Speaker 1: Biden left office at 82. Donald Trump is currently 80.
• 2:08:00
  Speaker 1: With Biden, there were things all of us could observe.
• 2:08:03
  Speaker 1: He moved more slowly. His public schedule and his exposure
• 2:08:06
  Speaker 1: to the press were increasingly controlled. He used the little
• 2:08:09
  Speaker 1: steps on Air Force One. There were verbal struggles, questions
• 2:08:11
  Speaker 1: about his memory and stamina. Again and again, the people
• 2:08:14
  Speaker 1: closest to Biden assured us, no, no, no, no, President,
• 2:08:17
  Speaker 1: they saw privately was different. When the president, Americans sometimes
• 2:08:20
  Speaker 1: saw publicly, we get these little anecdotes that the Wilson
• 2:08:24
  Speaker 1: administration would leak. I mean, the Biden administration would leak.
• 2:08:27
  Speaker 1: Then came the debate in June of 2024, and suddenly
• 2:08:30
  Speaker 1: tens of millions of Americans saw the same thing at
• 2:08:33
  Speaker 1: the same time. And the question wasn't simply whether Biden
• 2:08:36
  Speaker 1: should remain the Democratic nominee. It was whether people around
• 2:08:39
  Speaker 1: him had been candid enough with the country about his condition. Well,
• 2:08:43
  Speaker 1: we're having another version of this and presidential health debate
• 2:08:46
  Speaker 1: with Donald Trump. He's 80 years old. We're all observing
• 2:08:50
  Speaker 1: the bruising on his hands, the swelling in his legs.
• 2:08:53
  Speaker 1: There have been public appearances where he's appeared tired or drowsy.
• 2:08:57
  Speaker 1: Speeches that meander into long digressions or include moments of
• 2:09:01
  Speaker 1: verbal confusion. Any of us with an elderly grandparent, it's
• 2:09:05
  Speaker 1: quite familiar, right? Social media posts that have caused critics
• 2:09:09
  Speaker 1: to question his basic judgment. The filter, whatever filter was there,
• 2:09:14
  Speaker 1: he never had much of it, but any little of
• 2:09:16
  Speaker 1: it's gone now. And recently, there have been photographs, including
• 2:09:19
  Speaker 1: photographs distributed by people around Trump themselves, showing what appears
• 2:09:23
  Speaker 1: to be noticeable boxy bulges beneath his suit jacket and
• 2:09:27
  Speaker 1: suit pants. What does that mean? Hey, guess what? We
• 2:09:31
  Speaker 1: don't know. And that's a problem. Maybe it's nothing. But
• 2:09:35
  Speaker 1: there's something up. He's 80 years old. What's being covered up?
• 2:09:40
  Speaker 1: Does he have a medical condition that they're worried about?
• 2:09:44
  Speaker 1: shows a symptom at the wrong time in front of
• 2:09:46
  Speaker 1: the wrong people in front of the wrong cameras. But
• 2:09:51
  Speaker 1: this is why I'm incredibly uncomfortable with where we've ended
• 2:09:54
  Speaker 1: up as a country. Because in the absence of reliable,
• 2:09:58
  Speaker 1: independent information, people will begin filling in the blanks themselves.
• 2:10:02
  Speaker 1: Suddenly the internet is diagnosing photographs, inventing explanations, turning every
• 2:10:06
  Speaker 1: physical change into evidence for one theory or another. And
• 2:10:09
  Speaker 1: some of them might be correct and some of them
• 2:10:11
  Speaker 1: might be hogwash. But it's not a healthy way to
• 2:10:14
  Speaker 1: determine whether the president of the United States is competent
• 2:10:16
  Speaker 1: enough to serve. And there's plenty of questions. There are
• 2:10:20
  Speaker 1: facts on the other side that matter. Trump's physician claims
• 2:10:23
  Speaker 1: he's in excellent health and that his cognitive screening has
• 2:10:26
  Speaker 1: produced normal results. White House says the swelling in his
• 2:10:30
  Speaker 1: legs is just chronic venous insufficiency and says the bruising
• 2:10:34
  Speaker 1: on his hands comes from frequent handshaking combined with his
• 2:10:36
  Speaker 1: use of aspirin. Okay. His most recent physical listed his
• 2:10:40
  Speaker 1: weight at 238, 14 pounds heavier than the year before.
• 2:10:43
  Speaker 1: That's a lot of weight to gain in one year. Now,
• 2:10:46
  Speaker 1: I happen to think they've been lying about his weight,
• 2:10:48
  Speaker 1: to be frank. That's my opinion, because he'd put out
• 2:10:52
  Speaker 1: weights before that made no sense. So maybe this was
• 2:10:56
  Speaker 1: the first time we actually got his real weight. But
• 2:10:59
  Speaker 1: the point is, there's been no similar explanation for the
• 2:11:01
  Speaker 1: appearance of the bulge under his suits. Maybe there's a
• 2:11:06
  Speaker 1: mundane explanation for it. Maybe it's security. Maybe it's a vest.
• 2:11:09
  Speaker 1: But some of the places where he has these bulges
• 2:11:11
  Speaker 1: are not where bulletproof vests would be. I'm not qualified
• 2:11:14
  Speaker 1: to tell you what any of this means medically. And
• 2:11:17
  Speaker 1: I don't want political reporters pretending they are doctors. But
• 2:11:20
  Speaker 1: I also think we learned something important from the Biden experience.
• 2:11:23
  Speaker 1: Saying the public can't diagnose what it sees cannot become
• 2:11:26
  Speaker 1: an excuse for telling the public to disregard what it sees.
• 2:11:30
  Speaker 1: Because if our only alternative is to trust whatever the
• 2:11:34
  Speaker 1: White House tells us about the president's health, then we
• 2:11:37
  Speaker 1: haven't progressed very far from Woodrow Wilson, as we'd like
• 2:11:40
  Speaker 1: to think. And there's another reason this matters right now.
• 2:11:43
  Speaker 1: Independent access to the president is becoming another contested political issue.
• 2:11:48
  Speaker 1: Just look at what happened this past week, the Trump
• 2:11:50
  Speaker 1: White House. Again, this is because Trump needs his blankie.
• 2:11:53
  Speaker 1: He banned CNN, MSNOW, Politico from the White House grounds. Obviously,
• 2:11:58
  Speaker 1: it was a First Amendment absurdity. They won. Eventually, the
• 2:12:03
  Speaker 1: news organizations got back in. Now, the White House is
• 2:12:09
  Speaker 1: still making it very difficult for these three news organizations
• 2:12:12
  Speaker 1: to to cover the Chinese Communist Party visit. I mean,
• 2:12:15
  Speaker 1: it's just astonishing to me that this White House cares
• 2:12:18
  Speaker 1: more about the Chinese Communist Party than it does about
• 2:12:20
  Speaker 1: our own First Amendment, but I digress. On Friday, regular
• 2:12:23
  Speaker 1: television pool coverage finally resumed, and CNN itself was part
• 2:12:27
  Speaker 1: of the pool covering Trump and Xi at the National Archives.
• 2:12:30
  Speaker 1: But then the White House excluded CNN from its pool
• 2:12:32
  Speaker 1: duty in Tennessee. So look, it's not clear. This White
• 2:12:36
  Speaker 1: House clearly wants to hide stuff from journalists, hard stop.
• 2:12:42
  Speaker 1: And it means independent observation becomes even harder to come by.
• 2:12:48
  Speaker 1: And this gets to what I think is the unfinished
• 2:12:50
  Speaker 1: lesson of the Woodrow Wilson years. The 25th Amendment assumes
• 2:12:54
  Speaker 1: that if a president becomes incapable of serving, that the
• 2:12:56
  Speaker 1: people around him will eventually say so. Well, guess what?
• 2:12:59
  Speaker 1: We can't assume that. How many different presidencies do we
• 2:13:03
  Speaker 1: see that the people closest to the power are afraid
• 2:13:07
  Speaker 1: of losing their own access and they become delusional? Happened
• 2:13:11
  Speaker 1: around Biden, happened around Wilson, and we know it's happening
• 2:13:14
  Speaker 1: around Trump. And we know presidents fear looking weak, so
• 2:13:19
  Speaker 1: they want everything presented in such a way. And families
• 2:13:22
  Speaker 1: are going to protect their family members. But my goodness.
• 2:13:27
  Speaker 2: Yes.
• 2:13:28
  Speaker 1: If the president himself insists he's fine, well, Section 4
• 2:13:31
  Speaker 1: of the 25th Amendment requires people appointed by that president
• 2:13:34
  Speaker 1: to effectively turn against him. And if he contests their decision,
• 2:13:37
  Speaker 1: you're potentially headed toward a vote requiring two thirds of
• 2:13:39
  Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate. That's a high stakes
• 2:13:42
  Speaker 1: mechanism to build on the assumption that everybody involved is
• 2:13:44
  Speaker 1: going to be candid when the moment arrives. I think
• 2:13:47
  Speaker 1: it's time to take some of this responsibility away from
• 2:13:49
  Speaker 1: the people who have the biggest political interest in the answer.
• 2:13:53
  Speaker 1: Congress already has the constitutional authority to create an independent
• 2:13:57
  Speaker 1: body under the 25th Amendment to help determine presidential incapacity.
• 2:14:02
  Speaker 1: They can do it right now, but as with everything,
• 2:14:05
  Speaker 1: this Congress does shit. They don't know any of their
• 2:14:08
  Speaker 1: powers and they refuse to execute the powers that the
• 2:14:10
  Speaker 1: Constitution has handed them. This is yet another example of it.
• 2:14:15
  Speaker 1: After nearly 60 years of leaving that provision unused, maybe
• 2:14:18
  Speaker 1: we ought to use it since we now have two
• 2:14:20
  Speaker 1: presidents in a row who basically are lying or lied
• 2:14:23
  Speaker 1: about their health. Section 4 was designed for the crisis
• 2:14:27
  Speaker 1: after presidential incapacity has become serious enough that people inside
• 2:14:31
  Speaker 1: the government are willing to act. But it doesn't solve
• 2:14:33
  Speaker 1: the problem of how the public gets reliable information before
• 2:14:36
  Speaker 1: we reach that point. Why shouldn't every president undergo regular
• 2:14:40
  Speaker 1: independent health examinations with a standardized set of results released
• 2:14:43
  Speaker 1: to the public? Obviously, the hardest question is who gets
• 2:14:46
  Speaker 1: to choose the independent examiners. You'd need a structure neither
• 2:14:50
  Speaker 1: party could control. Perhaps a small medical panel appointed on
• 2:14:53
  Speaker 1: a bipartisan basis with fixed terms, rules established before anybody
• 2:14:57
  Speaker 1: knows which president they're going to examine. I'm sure there
• 2:15:00
  Speaker 1: are better ways to design it, but that's a simple,
• 2:15:03
  Speaker 1: quickie way. Leaving the president essentially responsible for choosing the
• 2:15:06
  Speaker 1: doctor who tells the public whether the president is healthy,
• 2:15:10
  Speaker 1: that's not much of a check. And look, I'm not
• 2:15:13
  Speaker 1: saying Americans are entitled to every detail of a president's
• 2:15:16
  Speaker 1: medical history, but they're entitled to more than the average person.
• 2:15:24
  Speaker 1: Their physical and cognitive capacity to perform the presidency is different.
• 2:15:29
  Speaker 1: And I'm increasingly skeptical that we should leave disclosure of
• 2:15:32
  Speaker 1: that information entirely as a voluntary thing. And I think
• 2:15:38
  Speaker 1: this ultimately may belong in the Constitution. Think about presidential
• 2:15:41
  Speaker 1: tax returns. For decades, we treated their release as a
• 2:15:43
  Speaker 1: norm because we believe voters would know whether a president
• 2:15:46
  Speaker 1: had financial conflicts of interest. And then Donald Trump just
• 2:15:49
  Speaker 1: declined to follow the norm, and now nobody releases tax returns.
• 2:15:53
  Speaker 1: That's a weakness of a norm. It works until somebody
• 2:15:55
  Speaker 1: decides it doesn't apply to them. And after we've experienced
• 2:15:58
  Speaker 1: two elderly presidents, I'm beginning to wonder whether presidential health
• 2:16:02
  Speaker 1: disclosure is too important to work that way. If we
• 2:16:05
  Speaker 1: believe Americans have a right to independent information about whether
• 2:16:09
  Speaker 1: the person exercising these enormous powers on our behalf are
• 2:16:14
  Speaker 1: physically and cognitively capable of doing the job, then we
• 2:16:16
  Speaker 1: need to make that information a requirement rather than a request.
• 2:16:21
  Speaker 1: Which means it probably needs to be constitutional. Look, we
• 2:16:25
  Speaker 1: figured out after Wilson and after Eisenhower and after Kennedy
• 2:16:28
  Speaker 1: that we needed some provision in the Constitution. But It's not,
• 2:16:33
  Speaker 1: but the 25th Amendment is incomplete, as I've pointed out.
• 2:16:36
  Speaker 1: How are the rest of us supposed to know? We've
• 2:16:40
  Speaker 1: got some work to do, and we know trust is
• 2:16:42
  Speaker 1: in short supply, and we know transparency is no longer voluntary.
• 2:16:47
  Speaker 1: So if we don't trust and we don't volunteer to
• 2:16:49
  Speaker 1: do these things, then maybe it's time to get constitutional.
• 2:16:55
  Speaker 1: Bet your time is sheet for the week. Thank you.
• 2:17:01
  Speaker 2: Ask Chuck.
• 2:17:05
  Speaker 1: All right, let's do a little Ask Chuck. This one
• 2:17:07
  Speaker 1: comes from B. Ray. And B. Ray writes, piggybacking off
• 2:17:10
  Speaker 1: some recent Ask Chuck questions about how Democrats should govern
• 2:17:12
  Speaker 1: if they win a majority. Could they use Trump's ego
• 2:17:15
  Speaker 1: and interest in his legacy as a negotiating tool? Could
• 2:17:17
  Speaker 1: Democrats potentially secure his signature on legislation by offering relatively
• 2:17:21
  Speaker 1: harmless concessions like naming a building, airport, statue, or other
• 2:17:24
  Speaker 1: project after him? It seems like an unconventional but potentially
• 2:17:27
  Speaker 1: useful bargaining chip. What do you think? You know, I
• 2:17:30
  Speaker 1: joked with somebody recently, B.
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 2: Ray.
• 2:17:32
  Speaker 1: I said, you know, if I were an advocate for D.C. statehood,
• 2:17:36
  Speaker 1: I would go to him and say– You've heard of,
• 2:17:40
  Speaker 1: you remember how we got the state of Washington, right?
• 2:17:42
  Speaker 1: We decided that there should be at least one state
• 2:17:44
  Speaker 1: named after him. The district of Trump. Trump. you know,
• 2:17:50
  Speaker 1: now do I, do I, the question is how bad
• 2:17:55
  Speaker 1: do you want DC state? So I was a little
• 2:17:58
  Speaker 1: tongue in cheek when I offered that, but I'm so
• 2:18:00
  Speaker 1: glad you asked this question because I do think there
• 2:18:03
  Speaker 1: are opportunities like this. And I think that, You know, look,
• 2:18:08
  Speaker 1: we know Trump cares about himself more over and above
• 2:18:12
  Speaker 1: everything else. He has no ideology or anything like that.
• 2:18:15
  Speaker 1: We've seen him, how excited he gets around Mamdani, how
• 2:18:18
  Speaker 1: excited he gets around anybody who's got a following that's
• 2:18:22
  Speaker 1: greater than his. He's always trying to sort of draft
• 2:18:24
  Speaker 1: off of it. If Democrats have both the House and
• 2:18:27
  Speaker 1: the Senate, I think the question is whether the base
• 2:18:32
  Speaker 1: of the party can stomach it. And I don't know, right? Um,
• 2:18:37
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of people offended by what he's done
• 2:18:39
  Speaker 1: with the Kennedy center. A lot of people offended, you know, I'm,
• 2:18:42
  Speaker 1: I'm among them. I think it's disgusting what he's done
• 2:18:44
  Speaker 1: with the art center. I just find the whole thing
• 2:18:46
  Speaker 1: just creepy, just weird. Um, but I, you know, there are, I, there,
• 2:18:58
  Speaker 1: he wouldn't be the first president whose ego was used
• 2:19:02
  Speaker 1: to secure legislation. And I think that with this president,
• 2:19:06
  Speaker 1: it's more possible. The question is, is it, you know,
• 2:19:16
  Speaker 1: how much can they stomach it? Is it worth it?
• 2:19:19
  Speaker 1: But like I said, I mean, I do think the
• 2:19:23
  Speaker 1: best way to get him to champion D.C. statehood is
• 2:19:26
  Speaker 1: if the state was named after him. And to me,
• 2:19:31
  Speaker 1: that would be my test, B-Ray. Can you stomach that?
• 2:19:35
  Speaker 1: And then that will tell you whether your strategy is workable.
• 2:19:38
  Speaker 1: DP comes in with a question, fan of the pod
• 2:19:40
  Speaker 1: with a quick question. Am I crazy or could bringing
• 2:19:42
  Speaker 1: back pork barrel legislation actually help foster more bipartisanship in Congress?
• 2:19:46
  Speaker 1: Could giving members more tangible incentives to work together make
• 2:19:49
  Speaker 1: compromise a little easier? The answer is yes, that is
• 2:19:52
  Speaker 1: one way, right? You know, it's just like taking the
• 2:19:55
  Speaker 1: power of political parties, choosing candidates took power away from
• 2:19:59
  Speaker 1: political parties, from vetting candidates, right? Here's what I would say.
• 2:20:03
  Speaker 1: And I think to modify, quote unquote, pork barrel legislation,
• 2:20:07
  Speaker 1: I think members of Congress ought to be identify themselves
• 2:20:11
  Speaker 1: more with the work that they're doing. And it should
• 2:20:13
  Speaker 1: be mandated. And that can be good politics or it
• 2:20:16
  Speaker 1: could be bad politics.
• 2:20:17
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:20:18
  Speaker 1: But by putting their name on the legislation, by putting
• 2:20:21
  Speaker 1: their name on the provisions does mean they have more
• 2:20:24
  Speaker 1: skin in the game. And if you're playing to people's egos,
• 2:20:27
  Speaker 1: more skin in the game matter. So, look, whether it's
• 2:20:31
  Speaker 1: I don't think you're crazy. I think there is something
• 2:20:33
  Speaker 1: to it. But I think it, you know, right now
• 2:20:36
  Speaker 1: it's just associated with, you know, earmarks or special provisions
• 2:20:40
  Speaker 1: for your district. But I think it should be in
• 2:20:42
  Speaker 1: some form, it should be all the time, which provisions
• 2:20:46
  Speaker 1: are yours should always be identified. And again, you know,
• 2:20:50
  Speaker 1: in fact, you shouldn't be able to put an anonymous
• 2:20:52
  Speaker 1: provision in because sometimes people put in provisions for a
• 2:20:55
  Speaker 1: donor and they don't want you to know it's a donor.
• 2:20:57
  Speaker 1: So I actually think you could create that if you
• 2:21:01
  Speaker 1: make this all the time, then you actually create more
• 2:21:05
  Speaker 1: accountability for misuse of funds, for bad appropriation ideas, right?
• 2:21:11
  Speaker 1: If it was your idea to appropriate a catamaran from
• 2:21:15
  Speaker 1: the University of Maine for testing for a naval contract
• 2:21:18
  Speaker 1: that never got through, well, then your name is on
• 2:21:21
  Speaker 1: that provision. So in fact, I would, so that's sort
• 2:21:27
  Speaker 1: of how I view your, A, I think it would,
• 2:21:29
  Speaker 1: and B, I actually think you could turn it into accountability.
• 2:21:33
  Speaker 1: And it becomes win, win, win. Just another day, Pete,
• 2:21:37
  Speaker 1: when you and I are trying to fix Congress. Nice work.
• 2:21:41
  Speaker 1: All right, Michael T. in Chicago writes, hey, I appreciate
• 2:21:43
  Speaker 1: you keeping us updated on the Missouri redistricting mess. If
• 2:21:45
  Speaker 1: Missouri ends up using different district boundaries for the primary
• 2:21:48
  Speaker 1: and general election, what happens if a voter challenges the
• 2:21:50
  Speaker 1: November 3rd results and could ultimately throw them out? Could
• 2:21:53
  Speaker 1: that create chaos as the new Congress is taking office?
• 2:21:55
  Speaker 1: And what, if anything, would prevent Republicans in Congress from
• 2:21:57
  Speaker 1: changing the law in December to try to resolve the
• 2:22:00
  Speaker 1: dispute themselves? Keep up the great podcasting. You make my
• 2:22:02
  Speaker 1: comments considerably more entertaining. My commute, excuse me, considerably more entertaining.
• 2:22:07
  Speaker 1: I appreciate you saying this is entertaining. Sometimes I worry
• 2:22:10
  Speaker 1: that I'm like making it depressed or whatever. I'm glad
• 2:22:14
  Speaker 1: to hear that. Look, I think this whole thing, I
• 2:22:17
  Speaker 1: think there's only one resolution that's constitutional here. And the
• 2:22:24
  Speaker 1: only resolution is special elections. And I think it's already
• 2:22:29
  Speaker 1: too late to do what they probably should have done,
• 2:22:31
  Speaker 1: which is all party primaries on this November ballot. And
• 2:22:34
  Speaker 1: if nobody got 50 in these congressional districts, you'd ever.
• 2:22:37
  Speaker 1: So what we did in Texas in 96. So this
• 2:22:41
  Speaker 1: this new delay, which they, you know, for whatever. How
• 2:22:44
  Speaker 1: many times does the Supreme Court have to say no? Right.
• 2:22:47
  Speaker 1: For for these Missouri Republicans to stop this. If the
• 2:22:52
  Speaker 1: if it's really if the if the if potential control
• 2:22:55
  Speaker 1: of Congress is super close, this could be super problematic.
• 2:22:58
  Speaker 1: This could end up being extraordinary problematic. If it's a blowout,
• 2:23:03
  Speaker 1: it won't be. And instead, I could see the entire
• 2:23:06
  Speaker 1: delegation not being sat. I could see, you know, and
• 2:23:10
  Speaker 1: a force where the government says you force special elections
• 2:23:13
  Speaker 1: and maybe they happen in December and maybe you can
• 2:23:15
  Speaker 1: get them done before January 3rd. Maybe they end up after.
• 2:23:18
  Speaker 2: But.
• 2:23:19
  Speaker 1: There's no part of this, the way this is running
• 2:23:22
  Speaker 1: right now, there's no part of this. If they use
• 2:23:26
  Speaker 1: the old primaries to determine nominees in different districts, none
• 2:23:29
  Speaker 1: of this is a legal election. It will get thrown out.
• 2:23:33
  Speaker 1: Just how you just described it with a voter lawsuit,
• 2:23:36
  Speaker 1: whatever it is, it is it is it is a
• 2:23:39
  Speaker 1: equal protection argument. I mean, it is just it's it's
• 2:23:43
  Speaker 1: cut and dry. And the remedy is pretty simple because
• 2:23:46
  Speaker 1: we have we have precedent of the remedy. It's new election.
• 2:23:52
  Speaker 1: And so. It's obvious what the remedy is. And there's
• 2:23:56
  Speaker 1: a whole bunch of Missouri Republicans in denial about it.
• 2:23:59
  Speaker 1: Is there a small possibility?
• 2:24:01
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:24:01
  Speaker 1: The most vulnerable part, as you've hopefully learned by listening
• 2:24:04
  Speaker 1: to this podcast quite a bit, when we've had a
• 2:24:06
  Speaker 1: couple of guests talking about it, is going to be
• 2:24:08
  Speaker 1: this period in between November 3rd and January 3rd. And yes,
• 2:24:13
  Speaker 1: will they be seated? And there could be challenges to
• 2:24:15
  Speaker 1: them again. If we're looking at either 6-2 split in
• 2:24:19
  Speaker 1: Missouri's eight congressional districts or a 7-1, you know, that
• 2:24:24
  Speaker 1: margin has to matter. That net of five or six
• 2:24:28
  Speaker 1: seats for the Republicans, is it the difference between control
• 2:24:30
  Speaker 1: and not control? Then we've got a constitutional crisis on
• 2:24:33
  Speaker 1: our hands. So, yeah, I'm absolutely it's sort of it's
• 2:24:38
  Speaker 1: like a it's like a political landmine. And you at
• 2:24:42
  Speaker 1: least we know this one exists. And you're like, oh, man,
• 2:24:45
  Speaker 1: I really hope we don't end up stepping on that landmine.
• 2:24:48
  Speaker 1: It's sitting out there. It's only a landmine that could
• 2:24:52
  Speaker 1: blow blow up on us if the margins are super narrow.
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 2:24:56
  Speaker 1: And this is a blue mirage election. But it sits
• 2:24:59
  Speaker 1: there and blue mirage. is in the 15%. That's a
• 2:25:04
  Speaker 1: one in eight, one in seven chance, right? It's probably
• 2:25:08
  Speaker 1: more likely, a blue mirage is more likely than Oklahoma
• 2:25:11
  Speaker 1: State beating Oregon this year. So it is, I think
• 2:25:18
  Speaker 1: your concerns are valid in this one about what Republicans
• 2:25:24
  Speaker 1: in Congress could do if they chose to, and if
• 2:25:26
  Speaker 1: the margins matter, but it all goes to what if
• 2:25:28
  Speaker 1: the margins are relevant. But yeah, this continues to be
• 2:25:31
  Speaker 1: a mess. And I just, I'm just offended by this
• 2:25:35
  Speaker 1: Secretary of State in Missouri, who your job is to
• 2:25:39
  Speaker 1: run free and fair elections, and you've gone out of
• 2:25:41
  Speaker 1: your way not to do it. You've gone out of
• 2:25:43
  Speaker 1: your way to flout voters. I mean, this guy is
• 2:25:48
  Speaker 1: on a level of incompetency that, frankly, I haven't seen
• 2:25:52
  Speaker 1: in any other statewide elected official, Secretary of State, at
• 2:25:57
  Speaker 1: least on this front. I mean, just astonishing at how
• 2:26:01
  Speaker 1: damaging he's done and the damage he's done. It's one
• 2:26:05
  Speaker 1: of those where I wish it were criminal, right? When
• 2:26:08
  Speaker 1: you intentionally screw up our democracy like this to make
• 2:26:12
  Speaker 1: something less democratic, right? That's traitorous to me. Matthew S. Springfield,
• 2:26:23
  Speaker 1: Oregon chimes in. Ooh, Springfield, Oregon. The leading suspect of
• 2:26:28
  Speaker 1: being the Springfield of the Simpsons. Long-time fan, and if
• 2:26:31
  Speaker 1: you read this, officially a two-timer on my way to
• 2:26:33
  Speaker 1: the coveted five-timers club. You often point out when something
• 2:26:35
  Speaker 1: outrageous may actually be a feature, not a bug. So
• 2:26:37
  Speaker 1: with Xi Jinping's visit looming, which just happens, so it's
• 2:26:41
  Speaker 1: a little older question. Do you think Trump's decision to
• 2:26:42
  Speaker 1: ban major media outlets could have been intentionally timed to
• 2:26:45
  Speaker 1: limit coverage during the visit? Or am I being overly suspicious? Also,
• 2:26:48
  Speaker 1: your college football segment needs a theme song. Have you
• 2:26:50
  Speaker 1: considered getting a marching band to record one? Man, that's
• 2:26:53
  Speaker 1: a great idea. What I need is my friends. I
• 2:26:56
  Speaker 1: need the littles. I need to borrow the littles from
• 2:26:59
  Speaker 1: the TK show. First of all, I need a theme, right?
• 2:27:04
  Speaker 1: I need some sort of... Maybe I should just do
• 2:27:06
  Speaker 1: the University of Miami fight song. It would offend everybody
• 2:27:10
  Speaker 1: but my University of Miami friends, right? It would offend
• 2:27:14
  Speaker 1: my own son, too. I don't know if I want
• 2:27:16
  Speaker 1: to offend my wife. Anyway, but I love this idea.
• 2:27:20
  Speaker 1: I need my own Gary, man. Gary's listening. You got to...
• 2:27:26
  Speaker 1: You got a theme music for this? Anyway, good stuff
• 2:27:30
  Speaker 1: in there. I got to answer your question, right? No,
• 2:27:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's that. Donald Trump doesn't want limited media.
• 2:27:35
  Speaker 1: I think this, I think the whole, you know, so
• 2:27:38
  Speaker 1: many of Trump's dictatorships are just him watching tv and
• 2:27:42
  Speaker 1: getting angry in a moment and he's just in a
• 2:27:44
  Speaker 1: cranky mood because everything is falling apart around him probably
• 2:27:49
  Speaker 1: probably his health isn't good you throw all the everything
• 2:27:51
  Speaker 1: he's just he's just mad about everything he saw some
• 2:27:54
  Speaker 1: segment about cnn was already mad about politico and he
• 2:27:57
  Speaker 1: was already and you know he misses he wishes msnbc
• 2:28:01
  Speaker 1: still existed right because he loved trying to to attack
• 2:28:04
  Speaker 1: both nbc and msnbc and he misses that punching bag
• 2:28:07
  Speaker 1: right so i think it's it's all of the above
• 2:28:10
  Speaker 1: on this but i don't think it was about preventing
• 2:28:12
  Speaker 1: you're right i think that one is a stumble uh
• 2:28:15
  Speaker 1: into that but i don't know i think i think
• 2:28:19
  Speaker 1: Look at all the ways that the White House went
• 2:28:21
  Speaker 1: out of their way to brag about how he wanted
• 2:28:24
  Speaker 1: to humiliate former presidents in front of the chairman of
• 2:28:27
  Speaker 1: the Chinese Communist Party. That, my friends, was a pretty
• 2:28:31
  Speaker 1: un-American behavior that he showed on that one. And maybe
• 2:28:38
  Speaker 1: people didn't see it as much as they should.
• 2:28:42
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:28:42
  Speaker 1: Jay chimes in with the last question for the day.
• 2:28:44
  Speaker 1: Greetings again from California 24. What role do you expect
• 2:28:47
  Speaker 1: Barack Obama to play as the midterms come to a head?
• 2:28:50
  Speaker 1: Actively stumping for candidates or mostly sticking to a few
• 2:28:52
  Speaker 1: speeches and events? And how might that day change after
• 2:28:55
  Speaker 1: November given the DNC's donor and organizational challenges? Was there
• 2:28:57
  Speaker 1: a larger role he could have played in strengthening the
• 2:28:59
  Speaker 1: party's national brand? P.S. Writing this after the dreadful Cal
• 2:29:02
  Speaker 1: performance against Clemson, Cal and Stanford certainly aren't making the
• 2:29:06
  Speaker 1: best case for themselves in the next round of realignment. Thanks, Jay. No,
• 2:29:09
  Speaker 1: they may end up back in the re-imagine Pac-12, right?
• 2:29:14
  Speaker 1: Maybe they can dominate the re-imagine Pac-12. I'm bummed about Cal.
• 2:29:18
  Speaker 1: I thought Cal was going to have a bigger year.
• 2:29:21
  Speaker 1: I may have put my money where my mouth was
• 2:29:22
  Speaker 1: on that one with Clemson. But I'll have my college
• 2:29:27
  Speaker 1: football thoughts here in a minute or two after this question. Look,
• 2:29:31
  Speaker 1: you know, Obama's involvement is such a double-edged sword, right?
• 2:29:36
  Speaker 1: The party needs to have a new generation of leaders.
• 2:29:39
  Speaker 1: And yet Obama... like Bill Clinton before him for a
• 2:29:42
  Speaker 1: period of time, right? He is the living avatar of
• 2:29:46
  Speaker 1: the last time Democrats had Mojo. As for the role
• 2:29:50
  Speaker 1: he plays, I think the best place, the best, you know,
• 2:29:53
  Speaker 1: the places he helps the most, I think he would
• 2:29:56
  Speaker 1: help Keisha Lance Bottoms a ton in Georgia. I would,
• 2:30:01
  Speaker 1: you know, it's funny, it's, look, he can help with
• 2:30:03
  Speaker 1: turnout among African-Americans in particular. I think the question is,
• 2:30:08
  Speaker 1: are there some independents that he could he could go
• 2:30:11
  Speaker 1: with it's interesting to me that there's only one national
• 2:30:13
  Speaker 1: democrat tallow ricoh's agreed to appear with in public and
• 2:30:16
  Speaker 1: it's been obama um but you know i think he's
• 2:30:20
  Speaker 1: i think he helps most with donors and you know
• 2:30:24
  Speaker 1: with sort of you know maybe maybe there's a handful
• 2:30:27
  Speaker 1: of ads um maybe there's some but you know even
• 2:30:31
  Speaker 1: i think even he's hesitant about being too much of
• 2:30:35
  Speaker 1: the face of the party and i don't think anybody
• 2:30:37
  Speaker 1: you know it definitely feels as if you know, it's
• 2:30:40
  Speaker 1: one of those things, if he were more involved, everybody like,
• 2:30:43
  Speaker 1: why are you so involved? Right. Your time is over.
• 2:30:45
  Speaker 1: And then there's people, Oh, he's not involved enough. Sort of, I, I,
• 2:30:51
  Speaker 1: you know, I've been critical of, I think how he
• 2:30:53
  Speaker 1: managed the party when he was in charge of it,
• 2:30:55
  Speaker 1: but I think there's only so much you can expect
• 2:30:58
  Speaker 1: out of it, you know, as a former president. Um,
• 2:31:02
  Speaker 1: And on that score, I think the things that people
• 2:31:05
  Speaker 1: want George W. Bush to do and the Republican Party
• 2:31:08
  Speaker 1: or Barack Obama to do, I think there just is
• 2:31:10
  Speaker 1: more limitations. And if they got more involved, it would
• 2:31:13
  Speaker 1: probably backfire more than it would help on that. But
• 2:31:21
  Speaker 1: I do think he is more of a pick your spots,
• 2:31:28
  Speaker 1: cherry pick them, right? don't necessarily– I wouldn't saturate it.
• 2:31:36
  Speaker 1: That's for sure.
• 2:31:37
  Speaker 2: I wouldn't.
• 2:31:38
  Speaker 1: All right. Let me give you a few minutes. What
• 2:31:44
  Speaker 1: a great college football Saturday. But I do want to
• 2:31:48
  Speaker 1: start with a debacle on the NFL, and that is
• 2:31:51
  Speaker 1: my beloved Green Bay Packers. I think what we see,
• 2:31:55
  Speaker 1: you know, there's a lot of talk. Is this Jordan Love?
• 2:31:58
  Speaker 1: Is this Matt LaFleur? Is this Gutenkust? And I never
• 2:32:02
  Speaker 1: say the GM's name right. I'll admit that. I think
• 2:32:05
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear it's a front office issue. There was
• 2:32:07
  Speaker 1: a decision made on essentially... creating an offensive line based
• 2:32:16
  Speaker 1: on Band-Aids. Yes, there's been a couple injuries, but the
• 2:32:20
  Speaker 1: offensive line has not been prioritized very well in draft,
• 2:32:22
  Speaker 1: hasn't been prioritized in free agency, hasn't been prioritized in trades.
• 2:32:27
  Speaker 1: It's clear this is affecting Love. He's going to get
• 2:32:31
  Speaker 1: hurt this year. I'm absolutely concerned about this, but this
• 2:32:36
  Speaker 1: is a debacle. There's a strong case to fire LaFleur now.
• 2:32:41
  Speaker 1: I'm not convinced, though, that, you know, if the way
• 2:32:45
  Speaker 1: the Packer organization works with no owner, this is basically
• 2:32:48
  Speaker 1: a joint decision. And usually the way it's been, the
• 2:32:50
  Speaker 1: president of the club, in this case, it's Ed Policy,
• 2:32:53
  Speaker 1: son of former 49ers executive Carmen Policy. It's essentially the way–
• 2:33:01
  Speaker 1: usually the GM has sort of this kind of unilateral
• 2:33:04
  Speaker 1: control over the coach. Well, the GM might be equally,
• 2:33:08
  Speaker 1: if not more to blame for the current Packers roster
• 2:33:11
  Speaker 1: construction than LaFleur. It's funny about LaFleur. He does seem
• 2:33:16
  Speaker 1: to be a more innovative play caller when Malik Willis
• 2:33:19
  Speaker 1: is quarterback than when– Like he has figured out how
• 2:33:22
  Speaker 1: to paper over problems when he had to with Malik Willis,
• 2:33:25
  Speaker 1: he's got massive problems in the running game and he
• 2:33:27
  Speaker 1: can't figure out how to create an effective offense this way. Um,
• 2:33:32
  Speaker 1: there's been a running joke that he's going to be
• 2:33:34
  Speaker 1: the next offensive coordinator for the dolphins working for his
• 2:33:36
  Speaker 1: old defensive coordinator down there. He's now head coach, Joe, uh,
• 2:33:39
  Speaker 1: Joel Halfley. And then he'll somehow turn Malik Willis into
• 2:33:43
  Speaker 1: a Pro Bowl quarterback. But, um, The Packers have had
• 2:33:50
  Speaker 1: both an extraordinary 35-year run with three quarterbacks, franchise quarterbacks,
• 2:33:56
  Speaker 1: and five head coaches. More head coaches than franchise quarterbacks.
• 2:34:00
  Speaker 1: But this has really been an underwhelming results performance. Aaron
• 2:34:06
  Speaker 1: Rodgers only won the big game once. Only won and
• 2:34:11
  Speaker 1: couldn't even get there a second time. Was... I used
• 2:34:17
  Speaker 1: to make the excuses for why we lost all these
• 2:34:19
  Speaker 1: NFC title games with him. But we were getting the
• 2:34:22
  Speaker 1: NFC title games with him. We're not even getting the
• 2:34:24
  Speaker 1: NFC title games with him. So to say Packers fans
• 2:34:28
  Speaker 1: are frustrated is an understatement. Some want to lash out
• 2:34:31
  Speaker 1: at LaFleur. Some are saying, well, maybe Jordan Love isn't
• 2:34:34
  Speaker 1: as good as Aaron Rodgers. Maybe he isn't, but he's
• 2:34:35
  Speaker 1: good enough. He's not the problem. I'm not sure LaFleur
• 2:34:43
  Speaker 1: is an asset or a liability yet. But I do
• 2:34:47
  Speaker 1: know this roster construction is a disaster. And ultimately, that's
• 2:34:51
  Speaker 1: the problem. And I fear wholesale changes need to be made.
• 2:34:56
  Speaker 1: And what's frustrating is that I think they think it's
• 2:34:59
  Speaker 1: just a dabble here and a dabble there. So, anyway.
• 2:35:03
  Speaker 1: All right. Quick college football reactions. The three... So the
• 2:35:11
  Speaker 1: team with the best resume is the team nobody thinks
• 2:35:13
  Speaker 1: is the best team in the country. And that's our
• 2:35:15
  Speaker 1: friends in Austin.
• 2:35:16
  Speaker 2: Right. Right.
• 2:35:17
  Speaker 1: There's something it's so funny. And I count myself among
• 2:35:19
  Speaker 1: the skeptics. Now, I think the Arch Manning problem is
• 2:35:23
  Speaker 1: not an Arch Manning problem. I think it's an offensive
• 2:35:25
  Speaker 1: coaching problem. I think it's a Sark problem. I look
• 2:35:29
  Speaker 1: at what my man Shannon Dawson has done with three
• 2:35:32
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks in Miami in three years, three different types of quarterbacks,
• 2:35:35
  Speaker 1: three different skill sets, and he designs an offense where
• 2:35:38
  Speaker 1: all three can succeed in different ways using essentially a
• 2:35:42
  Speaker 1: similar playbook. In fact, his playbook may be so easy
• 2:35:45
  Speaker 1: to use that it didn't get Cam Ward prepared for
• 2:35:48
  Speaker 1: the NFL, but I'll set that aside. My point is this.
• 2:35:52
  Speaker 1: I think Arch Manning would be more successful in the
• 2:35:54
  Speaker 1: University of Miami offense than he is in the Sark offense.
• 2:35:56
  Speaker 1: I think Arch Manning would be more successful in Lane
• 2:35:58
  Speaker 1: Kiffin offense than he would be in a Sark offense.
• 2:36:02
  Speaker 1: I think it's, I think these are, but then again,
• 2:36:05
  Speaker 1: a Texas defense is amazing. It is definitely national championship caliber.
• 2:36:12
  Speaker 1: I mean, what they did to that, you know, that rookie,
• 2:36:15
  Speaker 1: that freshman quarterback looked, looked at him, this looked like
• 2:36:18
  Speaker 1: he couldn't, he didn't have a second to think. Um,
• 2:36:23
  Speaker 1: so they have a championship defense. I don't know if
• 2:36:26
  Speaker 1: they have a good enough offense, but you can't, they
• 2:36:29
  Speaker 1: have wins over Ohio state and Tennessee. So their resume
• 2:36:32
  Speaker 1: looks terrific. Yet the three best consistent teams to me
• 2:36:37
  Speaker 1: so far. are Georgia, Notre Dame, and Miami. And in fact,
• 2:36:41
  Speaker 1: both Miami and Notre Dame, and yes, I know, I'm
• 2:36:43
  Speaker 1: a homer. But, you know, suddenly victories earlier this year
• 2:36:48
  Speaker 1: over power four teams that they both got, right? Notre
• 2:36:50
  Speaker 1: Dame beat Wisconsin in Lambeau. Miami beat Wake Forest double
• 2:36:55
  Speaker 1: digits in Wake. And both teams were both in control
• 2:36:59
  Speaker 1: of those games, but certainly had a fight on their hands.
• 2:37:02
  Speaker 1: And at the time, the question was, huh, should they
• 2:37:06
  Speaker 1: have beaten those teams by more or not? Then Wisconsin
• 2:37:09
  Speaker 1: turns around and beats Penn State in Penn State this week.
• 2:37:12
  Speaker 1: Wake turns around, goes to Louisville, beats a team that
• 2:37:15
  Speaker 1: probably should have beaten Ole Miss and did beat SMU,
• 2:37:17
  Speaker 1: ranked team. And suddenly you realize, oh, Miami and Notre
• 2:37:21
  Speaker 1: Dame are just a little more solid. Then you see
• 2:37:24
  Speaker 1: what Georgia did to Oklahoma versus what everybody else has
• 2:37:27
  Speaker 1: done with Oklahoma. And you see why I'm think those
• 2:37:30
  Speaker 1: three teams are just a little bit ahead of everybody else.
• 2:37:33
  Speaker 1: By the way, I'm not putting Indiana in there. I
• 2:37:35
  Speaker 1: assume you guys saw the game I saw against Northwestern.
• 2:37:40
  Speaker 1: Indiana may be a very good team. But I don't
• 2:37:43
  Speaker 1: think they're what they were last year yet, and they
• 2:37:44
  Speaker 1: got a long way to go to get there. Wow,
• 2:37:46
  Speaker 1: did they make a lot more flags than we had
• 2:37:48
  Speaker 1: gotten used to in a Cignetti coach team, including the
• 2:37:51
  Speaker 1: very first game of the play. By the way, speaking
• 2:37:54
  Speaker 1: of Sark, the Colin Simmons incident. This is the defensive. Look,
• 2:38:02
  Speaker 1: the guy had an incredible game, and I understand why
• 2:38:05
  Speaker 1: Sark didn't want to take him out of the game.
• 2:38:07
  Speaker 1: But he's the one that did the just obscene gesture
• 2:38:09
  Speaker 1: of him peeing on the field in Tennessee. And it
• 2:38:12
  Speaker 1: was just, you were just like, is he doing what
• 2:38:15
  Speaker 1: I think he's doing? Like, you're just like, you couldn't
• 2:38:17
  Speaker 1: believe it. In the NFL, he'd probably suspended a game
• 2:38:20
  Speaker 1: and definitely fine. These guys make money now. There needs
• 2:38:25
  Speaker 1: to be one of two answers here. I heard, you know,
• 2:38:27
  Speaker 1: after the game, you know, and everybody, he said he
• 2:38:29
  Speaker 1: was sorry and he got away from himself as he
• 2:38:31
  Speaker 1: should have. But that doesn't mean he shouldn't pay a price.
• 2:38:33
  Speaker 1: All right. Just because we're paying him doesn't mean we
• 2:38:36
  Speaker 1: don't expect certain types of behavior. So find them. find
• 2:38:40
  Speaker 1: them a significant amount of money. He should not play
• 2:38:43
  Speaker 1: in the next game. There should be consequences for embarrassing
• 2:38:47
  Speaker 1: the university on national television. There should be consequences for
• 2:38:53
  Speaker 1: being a terrible role model on national television in front
• 2:38:55
  Speaker 1: of the president of the United States.
• 2:38:57
  Speaker 2: I know.
• 2:38:59
  Speaker 1: I think it's, you don't behave this way in front
• 2:39:01
  Speaker 1: of anybody, let alone a president, even this president of
• 2:39:04
  Speaker 1: the United States. I just think that the The consequences
• 2:39:11
  Speaker 1: need to be ratcheted up here. And if they're getting paid,
• 2:39:15
  Speaker 1: we need to have fines. There should be real suspensions.
• 2:39:19
  Speaker 1: Like there should be a real disciplinary board that isn't
• 2:39:22
  Speaker 1: university based where, but we really need them on the
• 2:39:26
  Speaker 1: football field. I mean, we got to have, if we're
• 2:39:33
  Speaker 1: always making an excuse, oh, well, he got in his head.
• 2:39:37
  Speaker 1: If people don't think they're– look, the football karma, right,
• 2:39:42
  Speaker 1: that penalty happens, Tennessee flips the game. And it may
• 2:39:45
  Speaker 1: have flipped the game. So maybe that's the lesson he'll
• 2:39:49
  Speaker 1: take away from this. There should be more consequences than
• 2:39:53
  Speaker 1: just I chewed him out, he said he was sorry,
• 2:39:56
  Speaker 1: and we're going to move on. Can we be a
• 2:40:01
  Speaker 1: little bit better than that? I'm not trying to be
• 2:40:03
  Speaker 1: a hot take here. And I don't want to, I'm
• 2:40:05
  Speaker 1: not trying to come across like some naive, you know,
• 2:40:08
  Speaker 1: we let folks celebrate. We let everybody be human behavior.
• 2:40:12
  Speaker 1: That was a planned thing. And that crossed a lot.
• 2:40:18
  Speaker 1: And that was on the most, probably was the most
• 2:40:21
  Speaker 1: watched game of the weekend. If that happened, if anybody's
• 2:40:28
  Speaker 1: son did that, Would you be proud of him or
• 2:40:31
  Speaker 1: would you be embarrassed? And perhaps that's what, I know
• 2:40:36
  Speaker 1: if my own kid did this, he's off the team
• 2:40:40
  Speaker 1: that week. If the coach wouldn't punish him, I would
• 2:40:42
  Speaker 1: have as a parent. So again, I'm not trying to
• 2:40:48
  Speaker 1: sound like a schoolmarm, I think, but come on. We
• 2:40:53
  Speaker 1: can draw a line somewhere, can't we? Somewhere?
• 2:40:57
  Speaker 2: All right.
• 2:40:57
  Speaker 1: Sorry, I needed to make that one digression there. A
• 2:41:02
  Speaker 1: few other things from the weekend. What else did we learn? Man,
• 2:41:06
  Speaker 1: I'm going to hate to admit this, but those Florida
• 2:41:07
  Speaker 1: Gators look really good. I'm not sure they have the
• 2:41:11
  Speaker 1: quarterback to win the whole damn thing, but they have
• 2:41:14
  Speaker 1: the talent to be in the playoffs. let's just hope,
• 2:41:16
  Speaker 1: and I'm not looking forward to having to play a
• 2:41:18
  Speaker 1: first round game against Florida. If Miami has to play
• 2:41:20
  Speaker 1: Florida or a second round game in there, cause that
• 2:41:22
  Speaker 1: will be, the stakes will be pretty high for supremacy,
• 2:41:25
  Speaker 1: but boy, that those skill position players, that running game.
• 2:41:29
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think we saw Ole Miss still doesn't
• 2:41:32
  Speaker 1: have the best defense, right? That's the same Ole Miss
• 2:41:35
  Speaker 1: defense that, that Miami was able to exploit with, with,
• 2:41:39
  Speaker 1: with the quarterback that folks undersold at the time in
• 2:41:42
  Speaker 1: Carson back. Um, So it is hard for me to
• 2:41:48
  Speaker 1: admit how good Florida looked, but boy, did they look good. Boy,
• 2:41:52
  Speaker 1: did they look good. And you start to look at
• 2:41:54
  Speaker 1: this SEC and you realize, huh, A & M, not
• 2:41:57
  Speaker 1: so good. LSU's probably there. I think Ole Miss gets
• 2:42:01
  Speaker 1: a pass. That was a tough spot for them week
• 2:42:04
  Speaker 1: after having to go into the swamp, week after the
• 2:42:06
  Speaker 1: most important game in 10 years. By the way, I
• 2:42:09
  Speaker 1: was quite impressed with Mississippi State. Missouri came back. They're
• 2:42:13
  Speaker 1: an interesting team. I can't wait to see them play
• 2:42:16
  Speaker 1: one of the elite in the SEC. We'll see how
• 2:42:19
  Speaker 1: that goes, especially when one happens in Stark Vegas. So
• 2:42:22
  Speaker 1: that should be interesting. Miami's got Clemson. This is Clemson
• 2:42:27
  Speaker 1: week for Miami this week at Clemson. A game that
• 2:42:30
  Speaker 1: I had planned on attending, but some work things got
• 2:42:33
  Speaker 1: in the way because, hey, that's okay. I'll certainly be
• 2:42:37
  Speaker 1: watching that game, but I couldn't quite get the logistics
• 2:42:39
  Speaker 1: to work out so that I could get there in
• 2:42:40
  Speaker 1: time to go rub the rock or whatever it is there. But,
• 2:42:47
  Speaker 1: you know. I hope there's one thing I hope Miami remembers,
• 2:42:52
  Speaker 1: and I'll bring this up before the one of the
• 2:42:54
  Speaker 1: more humiliating losses at home for Miami. I think it
• 2:42:57
  Speaker 1: was I think it was losing to them by some
• 2:42:59
  Speaker 1: 60 points. And then and then we fired Al Golden,
• 2:43:02
  Speaker 1: I think, that night. Dabo went out of his way
• 2:43:06
  Speaker 1: to humiliate the University of Miami. I hope Mario Cristobal
• 2:43:09
  Speaker 1: has that deep in the back of his head. When
• 2:43:13
  Speaker 1: we're playing at Clemson this coming. I want to see
• 2:43:17
  Speaker 1: our guys look ferocious. I want to see Dabo crying
• 2:43:21
  Speaker 1: uncle for all of the ways he, you know, he
• 2:43:25
  Speaker 1: tried to Lord over other programs and humiliate other programs. Hey,
• 2:43:29
  Speaker 1: he had the, he had the players when he had
• 2:43:31
  Speaker 1: them and he pulled it off. But it's time for
• 2:43:36
  Speaker 1: a little payback. All right. With that, I will see
• 2:43:42
  Speaker 1: you tomorrow when it comes to super Tuesday with my pal,
• 2:43:44
  Speaker 1: Chris Eliza with that. Thanks as always for listening. Thanks
• 2:43:47
  Speaker 1: for liking and subscribing. And thanks for spreading the word. Man,
• 2:43:50
  Speaker 1: our growth has been amazing. And it's, you know, word
• 2:43:53
  Speaker 1: of mouth is the single best way we can convince
• 2:43:56
  Speaker 1: people to come on in for politics for the rest
• 2:43:59
  Speaker 1: of us. We'll see you soon.