Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process

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UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs Brown | MMA DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays & Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Fall systems, go clear the lifting. What's going on? Everybody?
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Happy Thursday, Friday, Saturday. Whenever you're watching another fight night
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: card in the APEX, this is this will be updated
• 0:45
  Speaker 1: or refreshing. A second is actually twelve fights. I know.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I hate to you get just some false hope from
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: the start, but this Janaz Cononez fight was canceled a
• 0:54
  Speaker 1: couple of days ago, and we also Zach Reese stepping
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: in for who was it originally? Who was it originally?
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Oh Robert Valentine, Yeah Valentine.
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: Yeah, what a gross fight that was gonna be. But
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: you had Valentine in that.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: One minus one forty five and he jumped up to
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: like minus one eighty. And then I didn't even know
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: it got off. I just saw I had money back
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: into my account. I was like, what the heck happened?
• 1:22
  Speaker 2: And then I saw that the guy from last week
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: was going to replace him. I thought I didn't even.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Know Dante Johnson Yep, yeah he. I think he didn't
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: get cleared for medical reasons, That's what it was. So
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: I was Valentine, that sucks for you about the CLV.
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: Then in was Dante Johnson was gonna fight on day's notice.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: Who just knocked out Dumas last week or submission I
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: can't remember which one second round and then he didn't
• 1:47
  Speaker 1: get cleared for medicals. So then in is Zachary. So
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: we're at twelve fights right now. Again, this should update
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: any second, NOONEZ I think it's a solid card, though,
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's no doubt next week pay per view
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: is the big car. So am I excited for this?
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: It's fights on my screen. I wouldn't rank it up
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: there as one of the best cards. But what are
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: your initial thoughts on it and how we do them today?
• 2:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I think I'm excited for DFS, especially if I
• 2:12
  Speaker 2: do like a twenty or less lineups. I think this
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: is a good one to kind of narrow down my
• 2:16
  Speaker 2: pool a little bit and focus in on a couple
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: of fighters and fights, and then there's a couple of
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: fights I'm looking forward to watching too, So if we
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: could be profitable, I'll definitely like the card. If I
• 2:27
  Speaker 2: know I'm dead from the start, we'll see if I
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: even finish it.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, fair enough, I'll be watching, like always live betting
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: opportunities pretty good, But DFS, I think it's just just
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: a solid card. All right, Yeah, do you want to
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: anything else? First of all, I gotta say I DFS
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: whispers g KAI for dirty.
• 2:43
  Speaker 3: Oh.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Is there anything that you want to mention and talk
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: about for that Dulgarian stuff.
• 2:48
  Speaker 2: No, I just wish i'd freaking bet it because I
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: saw it happened and knew it was gonna happen.
• 2:54
  Speaker 3: I just like, well, it already moved that much.
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: I don't know if I want to play it now,
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: but I was like, hindsight, I should have freaking played it.
• 3:00
  Speaker 3: I mean, I've been calling this.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: I don't know about fighters corrupt for a long time,
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: but I think there's a lot of corruption going on
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: in the sport for a long time now. And it
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: doesn't shock you at all. If I were going out
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: there making like twenty and twenty, why not throw the
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: fight for one hundred K? You know, pay your fighters more.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: You'll see. Yeah. No, I said the same thing. Tambo
• 3:19
  Speaker 1: asked me about it, and I was like, yeah, I mean,
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: at the end of the day, UFC is tough. Some
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: of these guys are getting paid ten and tens like you.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: They're going to offer him seven, eight, nine, ten x
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: what you make in there. I mean they also get
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: punched in the head for a living at the end
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: of the day. I mean, some people are just gonna
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: take that and it's not it's not good obviously. I
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: just think the penalty needs to be higher for stuff
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: to change. I agree. My buddy did bet it because
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: we were tracking it as well, and I kind of
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: had the initial same mindset as you, which is why
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: I didn't bet it, like I already missed the boat.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: But man, I mean, at this point, if anything's moving
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: that much, like it's for a reason, like it feels
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: like almost lock city. I mean yeah, but he still
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: got plus one sixty six. I mean, you know what
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: I mean, I could have fired plus one sixty six.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: They come knocking on my door, Hey, what'd you do? Hey,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: I tracked line movement, buddy, I mean it was plus
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: two tons plus one, Like, what do you want? I
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: got a bad number, So yeah that I kicked myself
• 4:14
  Speaker 1: for that one as well, similar to you, and that
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: should have been an auto bet, just the spots you
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: don't see very often. It obviously moved for a reason.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: I don't know how accurate this was, but I saw
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: like sixteen million was the handle in that fight or
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: something like come on a ufc APEX card and like
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: not a main event, like there was alarm ball set
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: off at a lot of places, so definitely interesting to
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: see where that all goes. Yeah it is wild, Yeah,
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: absolutely wild. All right, let me try and refresh one
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: more time. It's taken forever, but yeah, I'll we'll get
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: this out here. But we're gonna start bottom to top
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: like always. We have zach Reese stepping in again for
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: Valentine at minus three hundred, Jackson McVay plus two point fifty.
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: Only one prop I see since this, uh, since Reese
• 4:58
  Speaker 1: did just take this fight recently under one and a
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: half is minus two to five. So it opened minus
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: one eighty five. Now it's minus two o five so
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: that's good to see. And then Zachary Reese opened minus
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: five hundred, and yeah, this was today that these lines
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: came out this morning, so open minus five hundred. It
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: was minus three twenty shortly after. Stayed around there for
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: a bit and then a little buy back on the
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: McVeigh side, So yeah, break this one down, Zachary Ree
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: and Jordan McVay or Jackson McVay, why do I keep
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: calling him Jordan?
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: Yeah, our Zachary Ree's stats I think are Valentine's stats too,
• 5:34
  Speaker 2: so they are don't look at those at all. But yeah,
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: I like zach Reese here. I'm not a McVeigh believer.
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: I just don't think he's UFC caliber. I think if
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: he can get into the clinch or get the fight
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: to the mat, then he can he can finish guys.
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: But I don't think he's gonna be a good minute
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: to minute winner.
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: I don't think he's got knockout power, and I don't
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: think he's a good wrestler. I actually think Reese is
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: the better wrestler here, and I think he's got an
• 5:58
  Speaker 2: even bigger edge on the feet. So as long as
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: he can avoid being taken down and having his neck
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: taken on the ground in the first round, then I
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: think Reese knocks him out or.
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Even submits him himself.
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: I just think he's levels above this guy, even on
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: short notice. I don't think it matters the under one
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: and a half at minus two hundred do I like that?
• 6:18
  Speaker 2: So Reese's gonna be a play I see myself heavy
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: on and then we're I mean, you're paying extra for
• 6:24
  Speaker 2: McVeagh at seventy nine hundred, so I'm just gonna x
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: him out make it.
• 6:27
  Speaker 3: A little easier on myself.
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a very interesting note. All right, so we
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: got that updated. Now we're reflecting the twelve fights and
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: the Zachary Reese stuff like that'll all be filled in.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: But the interesting note, So Zachary Reese will probably be
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: somewhere in that nine k ish spot should have a
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: really good inside the distance prop the unders hammer it.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: Like I think he's a great play, but I probably
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: will play McVay. Like when I want to overspend for
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: fighters is when it's just heavily juice to finish. And
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: we got a minus two to oh five for under
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: one and a half, which means the inside the distance
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: to finish, like it might be a minus four hundred
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: minus four fifty. I get he's a big dog, but
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: like when he wins, what does he score? And I
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: think he scores probably big regardless of it, So like
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: he's going to be super low owned because it's uncomfy
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: to click, but yeah, I mean I'm down to click
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: it if I think he can score ninety plus and
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: most wins. I'm gonna be curious to see that inside
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: the distance prop compared to his money line. But just
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: seeing under one and a half Jews pretty good makes
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: me still interested on the on the McVay side, but
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: I agree Zach Reese is my preferred play. His round
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: one prop should be one of the best on the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: slate as well. All right, let's move to a fight
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: that I do not have much interest in. Daniel Marcos
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: Miles Johns minus one eighty five. Marcos plus one sixty
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: is John's plus two to twenty five for this fight
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: to finish Marcos plus three twenty five inside the distance
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: Johns plus five point fifty. I got this as a
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: fight fade. I mean, I think Marcos is just a good,
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: steady fighter, but he's a striker who mainly goes to decision.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: And Miles Johns, I mean he almost always goes the
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: decision too. He does wrestle a little bit. You see
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: one point two nine takedowns per fifteen down there. Marcos
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: is hard to take down, though, I think both these
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: guys probably stand that range. Marcos pieces up that leg,
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: probably just wins with volume and doesn't score enough for
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: eighty five hundred. But if I had to pick a
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: preferred side, it's John's. You have it as well, just
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: because he's eight hundred cheaper and he has some wrestling upside.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I guess, how do you see it?
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, just same as you.
• 8:28
  Speaker 2: I'm picking Marcos to win because I think he is
• 8:30
  Speaker 2: just a better boxer. This fight probably takes place on
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: the feet more often than on the ground, and I
• 8:37
  Speaker 2: think he's just gonna be the minute winner there. But
• 8:40
  Speaker 2: I don't think he scores well in DFS. I don't
• 8:42
  Speaker 2: even think he's gonna ten X in a decision win.
• 8:45
  Speaker 2: I think he's more playing for a knockout to have
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: any chance at the optimal So I'm gonna X him
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: out as well.
• 8:51
  Speaker 3: If I had to play either side.
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: It'd be John's coming off his most most aggressive performance
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: in his UFC career, like the most strikes landed. I
• 9:02
  Speaker 2: think he had five takedowns as well. He's gonna need
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: to be looking for that same kind of game plan
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: here against Marcos. So if he does win, I think
• 9:10
  Speaker 2: he could get nineties if he comes as the same
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: as he did in that last fight, But tough matchup.
• 9:16
  Speaker 2: Gonna be hard to get five takedowns here, so I'm
• 9:18
  Speaker 2: not gonna be high on them. Just a guy, I'm
• 9:21
  Speaker 2: fine playing as an underdog.
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, same boy. Last thing to note on this one
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: open minus three hundred that was corrected real quick though
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: two minutes. I mean, I wonder again, I always look
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: at that online. They're the ones that seem to at
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: least put out the first lines, the initial lines, and
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: people copy them, so I think they're the smartest right now.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: But man, I mean, these people are all over it
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: off shore. Two minutes later, it's at minus one seventy
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: five and it has stood around there ever since. So yeah,
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: not a fight. I really want much of Miles John's
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: if anything, due to the wrestling upside and the price discount.
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card. I mean, let's get both
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: the phades out of the way for me. Denise Goms
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: minus one to eighty Tisha Torres plus one fifty five
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: minus three twenty five for this one to go the
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: distance Gomes plus three hundred inside the distance, Tours plus
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: eight hundred. I mean, I guess if you wanted to
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: like go to the odds converter, you got me into this.
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: Let's see plus three hundred inside the distance or plus
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: three hundred equals twenty five percent at the end of
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: the day, twenty five percent will be almost double the field,
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: probably on de Nisse Gomes. The problem is, I mean,
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: I don't third round finish isn't guaranteed to be optimal. Now,
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: if you told me she was going to get a finish, yeah,
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: I'd probably played north to twenty five percent because what
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: it does to your lineups to get different. But at
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: eighty nine hundred, you got to do something. Takedown's only
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: one point one nine volume of about four and a half,
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: one of the most likely fights to go the distance.
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: Feels really tough for me to get there. I plan
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: on fading this fight. This fight and at Marcos John's
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: my two least favorite fights on the card. Yeah, I
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: see you got Myra Buena and Calacante, but you have
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: these down there as well, So do you see it
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: the same? Pretty much a fade?
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, probably a fade, But I'm okay using games as
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: a way to get different in this one. I do
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: think she is the one with a ceiling. She has
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: knockout power. I wouldn't rely one hundred and fifteen pounds
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: woman to get a knockout, but if there is a
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: knockout in this fight, I would think it's her. But
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: it's really the wrestling that I think could put her
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: up to one hundred or more points.
• 11:23
  Speaker 3: T Shit was taken.
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: Down let me see here five times in her last
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: fight against Pinero, four times against Asparza, and then if
• 11:31
  Speaker 2: you go back to when she fought Androge and Drage
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: took her down ten times. I mean, she's someone who
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: can get taken down and pop back up.
• 11:38
  Speaker 3: And if she is having.
• 11:39
  Speaker 2: Success on the feet, I would think that Gomes is
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: going to be looking for more and more takedowns. But
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: my issue is that maybe Games could win the striking
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: and she just keeps it there, and if that's the case,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: she's not going to score well. So not a player
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: I want to go after, but just one of those
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: how much do you win when you win type of plays.
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: I'm not against playing her, but I'll probably avoid Pennington.
• 12:03
  Speaker 3: The line's going in her favor, though.
• 12:04
  Speaker 2: If it keeps closing, maybe I could be interested, but
• 12:07
  Speaker 2: I just don't think she has any ceiling. It'd be
• 12:09
  Speaker 2: more hoping she even hits ten X.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: I agree for sure with that. I mean, you're you're
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: pretty much hoping every favorite wins. Essentially, it feels like
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: for the Pennington side, and I mean we can see
• 12:20
  Speaker 1: by these. Yeah, Hockett is a big favorite. Reese's minus
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: three hundred, but we have plenty in the minus one
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: hundred minus two hundred range, which sets up for me
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: as underdogs can come through. And almost any single underdog
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: I think has a higher ceiling than Tisha, So I
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: agree it's Gomes are pass probably passing on Gomes, especially
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: the less teams I make, but like plus three hundreds
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: of the distance, it's not good for the price. It's
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: not terrible though, And if you do think there is
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: wrestling upside, I'm worried that she's just a better striker too,
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: and she just has fun out there, and then it's
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: really hard to score. But if you're right and you're
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: getting three, four, five, six takedowns, she's gonna be super
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: low owned. You can eat a lot of chalk around it.
• 12:59
  Speaker 2: So I think takedown prop is I would I would
• 13:03
  Speaker 2: say at least one and a half, But if it's
• 13:05
  Speaker 2: two and a half, then I'm I'm more interested.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I'll uh, I'll look. When you're talking about if
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: I can pull up my my underdog account, usually that's
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: where I go, look does.
• 13:17
  Speaker 3: The drafts my freaking I might cut out so I don't.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, don't do that. I'll look when you're talking
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: about the next fight. But yeah, not a great fight
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: in my opinion for DFS. And I would know what
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: is a great fight for DFS. Is this next one?
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: The biggest favorite on the card. Josh Hockett minus four
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: hundred taken on Max gim minus plus three hundred, minus
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: five hundred for this fight to finish, we have Hocket
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: minus two fifty give minus plus four twenty five take
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: it away right right here. I mean this minus five
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: hundred to finish. Yeah, big price difference, a big favorite,
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: biggest favorite on the card. But yeah, heavyweight fights minus
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: five hundred to finish, it looks like one we got
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: a target. Yeah.
• 13:57
  Speaker 2: I think Hocket's just gonna be my favorite play on
• 13:59
  Speaker 2: the card. I couldn't find any film on this Max Gymnas.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: Guy's just grappling, and he's got a long grappling record,
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: not even a really good one, but it's long, and
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: he's got all of his MMA fights are just early
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: finishes against records that are terrible, And the fact that
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: you can't find him makes me think that this guy
• 14:23
  Speaker 2: really sucks. I bet he's gonna come out there and
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: look like just either a pure grappler or your typical
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: bar room brawler who then tries to get a takedown.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: That's just my guess, man, I don't know. I don't
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: know what this guy's gonna look like. It's just pure guesses.
• 14:36
  Speaker 2: But he is a big boy hackets green himself, so
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: you could play him because of those reasons.
• 14:42
  Speaker 3: But I'm just gonna take the hocketside.
• 14:44
  Speaker 2: He does have some hype behind him, and he wants
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: to go in there, crash in for an early takedown,
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: and once he gets it, he's gonna try and get
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: the finish on the mat in that first round, and
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: I think he does just that. So give me a
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: hundred plus points from hockey here. Hopefully it'll be enough.
• 14:59
  Speaker 2: If it's it's you know, a minute and thirty into
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: the fight. But I'll take my chances there and exit
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: out this Max guy.
• 15:08
  Speaker 3: I'd rather just I'd rather see it, I guess.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: Before I start buying into him at all, I'll think
• 15:14
  Speaker 2: of other ways to get different.
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: Yeah, that's fair. I don't know. I'm probably not gonna
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: xmout pre flop, but if I get zero on my
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: twenty entry, I'm hine The reason to play him is
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: he's hockets probably second third highest owned on the card,
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: so you're getting some of the most leverage off the
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: chalkiest guy and a fight minus five hundred to finish
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: at very low ownership where most of his inequity is
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: by finish, So I mean you get ten percent. You
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: could be overweight there with upside and leverage, So I
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: don't hate it, just pure game theory. But man, yeah,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: guy is a primary grappler to at the worst subprop
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: by good bit like get gymnasts or whatever is plus
• 15:52
  Speaker 1: one thousand by sub whereas Hocketts plus four hundred, like
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the dude just a grappler, and these like Mike submitted
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: and he's taking money to get submitted like Hockey by
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: sub open plus five to fifty now plus four hundred.
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: It feels like a slam dunk spot for sure. But yeah,
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, this Hockey guy seems okay. I mean,
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: he definitely has talked his Talk I Contenders series plating
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: people cheering against him. He should come in here and
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: smash this one. But again, if he doesn't, is a
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: lot of ways, like you could see solo shippers sixty
• 16:24
  Speaker 1: eight hundred opens up the world probably gets a finish somehow.
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: Hockett gases a lot of routes for this one to go,
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm gonna play a fight minus five hundred
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: to finish Hockey looks like a very good play. Next
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: fight on the card, another spend up option that's gonna
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: be probably the lowest own in that upper tier. Jaquelin
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: Calviconte minus two thirty six, my Ra Buoeno Silva plus
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: two h one minus three fifty for this fight to
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: go the distance the underdog with the better inside the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: distance prop plus three sixty five Calviconte plus six fifty.
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: Are you playing any of this fight? I see you
• 16:56
  Speaker 1: have it as a one star.
• 16:58
  Speaker 2: No if I if I have twenty years less, lineup's
• 17:00
  Speaker 2: full fade. If it's more than twenty. I'm not against
• 17:05
  Speaker 2: Myra Bueno Silva as just a really cheap punt, because
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: if there's a first round finish, I'm thinking it's really
• 17:11
  Speaker 2: If there's a finish in the first two rounds, I
• 17:13
  Speaker 2: would think it's her, so all the ceiling is on
• 17:16
  Speaker 2: her side.
• 17:17
  Speaker 3: But she just doesn't wrestle as much as I would
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: want her to.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: She is the one with the grappling edge in this fight,
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: but I have a feeling she accepts a striking match
• 17:25
  Speaker 2: and Cavalcanti wins thirty to twenty seven and scores sixty
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: eight points. Sixty eight points at ninety two hundred, you
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: might as well call tonight, so I'll checks her out.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: Yeah, That's how I'm seeing it too. I just think
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: Jacqueline like I don't even love Silva because I think
• 17:42
  Speaker 1: she gets some ownership when people see her inside the
• 17:44
  Speaker 1: distance prop and know the name, and like they think
• 17:47
  Speaker 1: the floor is higher because it's supposed to go to
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: the distance. But I mean Calvicanti is nice on the feet.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: I think she just pieces her up. That light kicks good,
• 17:54
  Speaker 1: the volume's good. It's just her style for dfses not
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: translate with no wrestling upside and really not much finishing upside.
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: So it's a fight fade for me, pretty much like
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: I'm fine having Silva in the pool. She catches her
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: with something, but I think Calvicanti rolls and this is
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: not a fight I want much of it all. I
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: think we have a clear clear three fights that are
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: in the lowest tier, and Big Marley sees it the same.
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: This fight. Denis Gomes Pennington. Marco smiles. John's clearly for
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: me the least or the worst three fights on this card,
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: but usually that translates to probably the three lowest owned
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: fights on the card. A fight that won't be low owned,
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: and then I'll definitely be playing Hyder and Mill minus
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: one thirty six Jamal Emmers plus one sixteen minus two
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: to fifty for this fight to finish, Meal plus one
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: twenty inside the distance Emmers plus two hundred. First thing
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: that stands out to me on Monday, I put up
• 18:47
  Speaker 1: these props minus two ten for this fight to finish
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: on Monday now minus two fifty. So the unders taking
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: some money, a little buyback on the Embers side as well.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: Closest line fight on the car, the closest price fight
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: on the card. How do you see it going? What
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: are you doing for DFS?
• 19:05
  Speaker 3: Yeah?
• 19:05
  Speaker 2: I like both sides of this one. I think it's
• 19:06
  Speaker 2: going to be a fun fight. A Meial is just
• 19:09
  Speaker 2: always going to be in fun fights. He pushes the
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: pace early, he could throw a lot of volume, He's
• 19:14
  Speaker 2: got power and Immers has been knocked out a handful
• 19:17
  Speaker 2: of times, like four to six times. I want to
• 19:19
  Speaker 2: say so Emil is definitely lied to get a knockout.
• 19:22
  Speaker 2: But Immers is the better wrestler. He's also a good
• 19:25
  Speaker 2: striker too. I mean, I feel like Imers could win
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: a striking match. He could knock a Meal out. He
• 19:28
  Speaker 2: really could win by any method. But if I was
• 19:32
  Speaker 2: his coach, I'd really want him to be mixing in takedowns.
• 19:34
  Speaker 2: I don't want like two to four takedowns here. And
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: if that's the case, I think Immers wins the fight.
• 19:40
  Speaker 2: So I prefer the underdog in this one. And I
• 19:43
  Speaker 2: think that a Meal's pace and pressure should help Emmers
• 19:47
  Speaker 2: score more DFS points as well. So I'll probably overweight
• 19:51
  Speaker 2: to Emers and then around the field or underweight to
• 19:54
  Speaker 2: a Meal, but fun fight want I'll be targeting fairly heavily,
• 19:59
  Speaker 2: and if I up overweight to both, I'd be fine
• 20:01
  Speaker 2: with that too.
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: That'd be my ideal. And the reason for that is,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: I mean I can drop from a let's see is
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: meel bomb feed nine K. I'll just drop down to
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: Hyder Meal eighty two hundred and lead eight hundred bucks
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: like I don't hider, and Meal is one of the
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: highest ceilings on the slate with his relent, I mean,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: big boy, significant strikes per minute six point eight four
• 20:20
  Speaker 1: great cardio. He gets better as the fight goes, Like
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: this fight just looks slammed dunk type stuff. I struggled
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: on the side like I was going like, do you
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: see it? The same as I feel like what most do.
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: Whereas the longer the fight goes, a Meal just uses
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: his gas tank and and starts breaking Emers. Or do
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: you think Emers can keep that high pace for fifteen minutes?
• 20:43
  Speaker 2: I think he Yeah, I think he can keep that
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: pace for fifteen minutes. Okay, I mean maybe not a
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: Meal's pace, but a winning pace.
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean if he can. I think this line
• 20:53
  Speaker 1: is probably just wrong at the end of the day.
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: I mean it's Jamal Emmers is like skill for skill.
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: I don't see where he's the under dog in this fight,
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: but I think the pace, just the will to win
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: might be on the middle side. Being able to leave
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: two hundred bucks probably get an ownership discount with Emmers
• 21:10
  Speaker 1: probably leads me to them as my preferred play. But
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: ideally I'll get overweight on both. I don't need to
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: make a strong, strong stance in this one. I just
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: want to make sure I have a lot Again, the
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: underbeing hit forty cents for this fight to finish Monday
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: to Thursday is pretty significant and something I do want
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: to follow. All right, Next fight on the card again,
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: appreciate everyone hanging out like button and subscribe button helps
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: us out a ton, and I will bring up shout
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: out to splash Sports partnering up with them over here
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: offered a very nice and generous discount. If you use
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: that promo code, ship it go over to splash Sports.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: They will match fifty dollars for your first deposits also
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent payout boost on your first quick pick entry.
• 21:52
  Speaker 1: Take a look for NFL, for NBA, whatever you think
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: you are best at. It is similar to like pick
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: six price picks where you pick over unders on player props,
• 22:02
  Speaker 1: you pick multiple of them, you compete against other people,
• 22:06
  Speaker 1: and then if you do go like six for six
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: whatever it may be, you do get additional one hundred
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: percent payout boost on top for your first entry. So
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: splash boards continues to grow a lot of survivor stuff,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: quick pick stuff. Get on over and check it out,
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: all right, Next fight on the card. Six fights left.
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: We have Marco Tulio and Christian Leroy Duncan Tulio minus
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: one seventy five Leroy Dunkin plus one fifty minus one
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: thirty for this fight to finish, Tulio plus one sixty
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: five inside the distance Christian Leroy Duncan plus three hundred.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: This fight almost tell me if if you can see it,
• 22:41
  Speaker 1: But it's almost a copy and paste of that Waldo
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: de la fight for me last week in the sense
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: of the props are pretty much the same. It was
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: like minus one thirty to finish. You can make a
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: case for both guys because it's heavyweights, heavy hands, it
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: only takes it only takes one. It's not heavyweight, so
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: sorry big boys in the middleweight division. But it's two
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: powerful guys that are known for knockouts that one punch
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: can change anything. But if they don't get that knockout,
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: I don't think either wrestles, and there has a chance
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: to be a boring pace at distance, and if it
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: gets outside, I mean for sure outside the second round,
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: and even a second round finish from Tulio might not
• 23:20
  Speaker 1: be enough. So I'm a little worried with over two
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: and a half favored in this one, or at least
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: a coin flip if there's not a finish in the
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: first two rounds. I mean, it's got to be CLD
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: that you'd rather have, and that's why it leads me
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: to him being my preferred play because of the twelve
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: hundred savings. But yeah, I'm kind of torn on this fight.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: Uh yeah, I mean I got it as a three
• 23:40
  Speaker 2: for that reason because I don't think there's gonna be
• 23:44
  Speaker 2: a lot of wrestling. But I actually am preferring the
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: Tulio side because if there is wrestling, I'm thinking it's him.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: He's the one I see pushing forward, throwing more volume,
• 23:54
  Speaker 2: and if there's wrestling, he could I think maybe dominate
• 23:58
  Speaker 2: the fight on the ground. But they are both primary strikers,
• 24:02
  Speaker 2: so you're really playing for the knockout if it is
• 24:05
  Speaker 2: a striking match. I don't see either one of them
• 24:06
  Speaker 2: scoring well in a striking based decision.
• 24:09
  Speaker 3: If that was the case, then yeah, CLD, I guess
• 24:12
  Speaker 3: would have to be the play.
• 24:14
  Speaker 2: But I see may be an over or around the
• 24:18
  Speaker 2: field on Tulio and then.
• 24:19
  Speaker 3: Under on Duncan in this one, probably over on.
• 24:23
  Speaker 2: I kind of like Tulio here, so I'll probably be
• 24:25
  Speaker 2: over the field on Tulio.
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: Actually, Okay, I mean yeah, I probably won't. I'll probably
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: be around the field. I mean, he's plus one sixty
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: five to finish, which is definitely solid. CLD plus three
• 24:35
  Speaker 1: hundred solid. It's just I think there's more outs for
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: CLD just because the decision win eighty could be enough.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: But the volume is very good for Tulio eighty seven
• 24:45
  Speaker 1: hundreds of fine price tag not a strong take from me. Again,
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: I'm a little concerned at the minus one thirty to
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: finish when it seems like it should be a little higher.
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: If it goes the distance, I think it'll be tough
• 24:56
  Speaker 1: for Tulio eighty seven hundred. But yeah, plus one sixty
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: five inside the distances, good ownerships should stay in check.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: I'll probably be around the field on both guys. I
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: don't want this fight to bury me. Whatever happens, all right,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: Next fight on the card, another good one to target.
• 25:12
  Speaker 1: Euros Meticch minus one fifty four. Muslim Salakov plus one
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: thirty four most likely fight to finish on the card
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: minus six hundred manage, minus one twenty five inside the
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: distance Salakov plus one seventy pretty good amount of line
• 25:26
  Speaker 1: movement on the Salakov side, so it's minus one eighty
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: on Monday. Now it's minus one fifty four. I see
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: you have more stars on the Salakov side than Medich.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: You get fourteen hundred dollars savings. Is just a pretty
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: much coin flip. Fights you on the feet, might as
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: well take the savings or what.
• 25:43
  Speaker 3: Well, I kind might be.
• 25:45
  Speaker 2: A three to three on this one, because when I
• 25:47
  Speaker 2: did the fight, Salakov was like plus one seventy plus
• 25:51
  Speaker 2: one eighty. I mean, I thought it was just closer
• 25:54
  Speaker 2: to a coin flip than that. So I picked sally
• 25:56
  Speaker 2: Kov for that reason. But I just think it's a
• 25:59
  Speaker 2: gonna be a knockout either way. I see this one
• 26:01
  Speaker 2: ending under two rounds, probably in.
• 26:04
  Speaker 3: The first round.
• 26:06
  Speaker 2: Metich is gonna be the quicker striker, almost ten years
• 26:10
  Speaker 2: younger as well, but Salikov the more proven guy, I think,
• 26:13
  Speaker 2: more powerful as.
• 26:14
  Speaker 3: Well, and I just trust him a little bit more.
• 26:18
  Speaker 2: So I'm picking Salakov here, But if I make my
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: lineups on Sabersim and I have like sixty metic forty
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: percent Salakov, I'd be fine with that, I think, so
• 26:31
  Speaker 2: either way in this one, I'm cool with it. But Salakov,
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: when I'm handbuilding, he is one that I'm clicking as
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: my underdog a lot to see what I can do
• 26:39
  Speaker 2: with the rest of my lineup, So I'd imagine I
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: end up with more Salakov here. It's just that my
• 26:44
  Speaker 2: pick on him wasn't confident. It was just the line
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: tuck me into it. If Metitch was plus one thirty,
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: i'd be picking him.
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: Actually, what about now at minus one fifty four plus
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: one thirty four, what's your lean?
• 26:56
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean I would have thought about him more.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: I'd still be picking Salikov, but I like the closer
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: it gets, like the more I would have been thinking
• 27:04
  Speaker 2: about it as I made my pick, But just I
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: made it on Sunday, so I took Salakov there and
• 27:10
  Speaker 2: then I kind of just try to stick with my.
• 27:11
  Speaker 3: Pick through the week.
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: Yeah that makes sense, man, I don't really have a
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: strong lead on the side. It just seemed the under
• 27:18
  Speaker 1: like under one and a half open or plus one forty.
• 27:22
  Speaker 1: Now it's minus one fifty five. Like, if this fight
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: ends in the first two rounds, I'll take my chances.
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: I think you're getting at least a knockdown from it.
• 27:32
  Speaker 1: That is shows good volume. Any Salakov win should score
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: at that price take. So yeah, I'm I just want
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: to be in on a minus six hundred fight to finish,
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: neither breaks the bank. I would love to get overweight
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: on both guys. Like, is your concern that it's just
• 27:49
  Speaker 1: it's a Salakov fight, so these guys just stand that
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: range and it could be lower volume knowing gets knocked
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: out like that, that's how it busts, right, I.
• 27:56
  Speaker 2: Mean, that's that's usually my concern in all Salakov fights.
• 27:59
  Speaker 2: But I think medic erases that concern.
• 28:02
  Speaker 3: A little bit.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: That's good. Yeah, the line pretty much says the same,
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: which which makes me feel better that you say that
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: as well. All right, two fights or three fights left?
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Which four fights left? Skip? Yeah? I did. I was
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: skipped the Simone Barcellos fight and the Ismael fight because
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: I just went based on fight out. Sorry about that.
• 28:21
  Speaker 1: Let's jump back to on the stone, Ricky Simone, Ryoni Barcelos.
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: We have minus one seventy five simone plus one fifty
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: hyone plus one seventy for this fight to finish, plus
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: three hundred inside the distance for simone, plus plus three
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: ninety five inside the distance for hyone. Take it away.
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: What are you doing?
• 28:42
  Speaker 3: Fine with either side of this fight?
• 28:44
  Speaker 2: Usually Simone fights I do like because he is a
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: high paced fighter and usually high paced with his wrestling,
• 28:53
  Speaker 2: so I always like Simon, but at the same time,
• 28:55
  Speaker 2: I think he is falling off a little bit with
• 28:57
  Speaker 2: that pace and that wrestling, and bars is a really
• 29:00
  Speaker 2: good fighter that I don't know that you have a real.
• 29:03
  Speaker 3: Edge against anywhere.
• 29:04
  Speaker 2: I think if it's a fifteen minute striking match, maybe
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: Simone is more dangerous early, but I think Barcellos is
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: the more skilled striker over fifteen minutes.
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: I would pick him there.
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: If there's a late knockout, I guess it could be
• 29:17
  Speaker 2: either way, but I think at that point Barcellos would
• 29:20
  Speaker 2: have been going already.
• 29:21
  Speaker 3: I think I would trust him late, and if.
• 29:25
  Speaker 2: There's a submission, it could be on the Barcelos side
• 29:28
  Speaker 2: in this one, so I'm picking Barcellos. Another one where
• 29:31
  Speaker 2: I think it's kind of closer to a pick and fight.
• 29:33
  Speaker 2: I took the underdog, but at on DFS, if someone
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: scores one hundred and ten or one hundred and twenty points,
• 29:42
  Speaker 2: I don't think that's really possible for Barcellos unless.
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: It gets a quick finish.
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: Simone can do that in a decision if we see,
• 29:50
  Speaker 2: you know, like prime Simone, So I'd be another one.
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: I'd be fine if I.
• 29:54
  Speaker 2: Did end up with more Simone here, but my plan
• 29:57
  Speaker 2: going into it is to be overweight Barcellos under or
• 30:00
  Speaker 2: around the field on simone.
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean, I'll always play simone just because of
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: his five point oh one takedowns per fifteen. Now, I
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: don't think there's any doubt that he's not in his
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: prime even at thirty three, So I don't know how
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: much eight nine, ten takedown upside he has. All Right,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: we like what seven takedowns I'm telling you he gets?
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: What percent of the time is he getting that?
• 30:24
  Speaker 3: On Barcellos? I would say low the time.
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah. The thing about Ricky and you might be surprised
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: to see this, so plus three twenty five Ricky by
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: KO plus six hundred for Hyoni, are you surprised to
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: see Ricky's almost double the chance to knock him out? Now?
• 30:46
  Speaker 2: Because I think Barcellos has taken some damage in his
• 30:48
  Speaker 2: last couple of fights so, and he is older, So
• 30:51
  Speaker 2: I think, like, once your chain goes, it goes, and
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: we had the simone knockout basharrat So to me, it's
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: just recency buyas type of in the line. But it
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: also could be true like Barcelos just might not be
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: able to take the damage anymore.
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and Ricky, I mean he throws, I mean pretty hard,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: for like when he gets in tight, he'll throw hard
• 31:12
  Speaker 1: like that bosch Ko, et cetera. But with a guy
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: that can chain takedowns like Ricky, I just like this
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: fight in the sense, even though it's supposed to go
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: to a decision, like if Ricky is wrestling, Yoni has
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: chances for reversals for his own takedowns for control time.
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: I just want to see wrestling. I just want to
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: see scrambles at the end of the day in UFC,
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: because so much can happen on both sides, and if
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: you get one way traffic from either guy, you can
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: get a big score that way. So yeah, a good
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: mid tier fight, and it can't be super high owned
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: with bomb fieing Brown in the main events getting a
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: good amount of ownership, and then where's the hider emeal
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: Jamal Emmers, I think this fight clearly is higher Roman
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: Simon Barcelos as well, so it'll get some ownership, but
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: with bomb Feme and a Meal right around that range,
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: I do think the owners stays in check and this
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: clear upside on both sides. All right, next fight on
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the car at a two star for you, Ismael bomb Fen,
• 32:06
  Speaker 1: the brother of Gabriel who's in the main events, minus
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: twoh five taking on Chris Padia plus one seventy five
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: minus one fifteen for this fight to finish, plus two
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: forty inside the distance on both sides. I mean just
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: seeing the same inside the distance prop for someone that's
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: nine k and someone that is seventy two hundred. That
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: makes a seventy two hundred guy a pretty easy click
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: for me. I'll definitely be playing some petit some Padilla
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: bomb fiend falls down the list in the upper tier
• 32:34
  Speaker 1: for me, so I'll be cheering for Padia in this one.
• 32:36
  Speaker 3: What about you, Yeah, same thing.
• 32:39
  Speaker 2: I think Padia could win this fight anywhere. The Bombfing
• 32:43
  Speaker 2: brothers are solid, but I think that they're both getting
• 32:46
  Speaker 2: a little bit too much love from Vegas, at least
• 32:50
  Speaker 2: this weekend. I'm worried about this fight just being low
• 32:55
  Speaker 2: paced though, and maybe either guy gets one or two
• 32:58
  Speaker 2: takedowns less than like eighty strikes throughout the course of
• 33:03
  Speaker 2: fifteen minutes and we just don't get.
• 33:05
  Speaker 3: A big score either way.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: But I'm really not interested in that from Bondfime Padilla,
• 33:08
  Speaker 2: we could maybe deal with it. So Dogger pass for
• 33:11
  Speaker 2: me would x Bond theme out if I'm mmm, that's
• 33:15
  Speaker 2: for sure. But if I'm making limited lineups, I'm definitely
• 33:19
  Speaker 2: clicking on.
• 33:20
  Speaker 3: Reese before him.
• 33:21
  Speaker 2: I'm clicking on Hockey before him, and I'm going down
• 33:24
  Speaker 2: to Meditch before I click on him too.
• 33:26
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, I'm going to pretty much everyone except
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: maybe Calvicantey. But I mean there's enough people that I
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: can like. I'm fine not playing any Bomb theme. If
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: I only got five to ten, maybe even fifteen teams like,
• 33:39
  Speaker 1: I'd probably go around the round one prop which depending
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: where you look, the bet on lions plus six hundred
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: plus six hundred and fourteen percent chance. If I had
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: fourteen percent Bomb theme, I think I'm fine there. He
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: should be low owned a pivot, but I really don't
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: like it much, that's for sure. All Right, two fights left.
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: I think this one should be a slid comain event.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: I misspoke earlier saying the biggest favorite on the card
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: was was a hocket. Morales was minus two seventy on Monday.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: Now he's minus four fifty five taking on match Schanews
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: plus three to fifty five on the way back, minus
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: two thirty for this fight to finish. So it is
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: minus one eighty Monday now minus two thirty Morales minus
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: one eighty inside the distance Chanell plus six twenty five
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: line movement for the inside the distance props. Morales opened
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: minus one oh five now minus one eighty Chanell opened
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: plus three seventy five now plus six twenty five. I mean,
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: obviously a way different scenario than the Dulgarian stuff we
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: talked about. But if you just want to be a
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: someone like me who really takes into consideration props, line movement,
• 34:45
  Speaker 1: et cetera, I mean, Morales has just gotten slammed super
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: hard all week. The over has gotten slammed. The inside
• 34:52
  Speaker 1: the distance has gone the right way for him, the
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: wrong way for Chanelle. Chanell retired, then he came back.
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: He's getting up there in age. He's taken a lot
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: of damage. I just feels like one way traffic. I
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: think Morale is one of the best plays on the slates.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: I do not like Chanelle one bit. That's how I
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: got it.
• 35:08
  Speaker 2: What about you, Yeah, I'm not against using Chanell. I
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: think skill for skill. If he showed up hungry and
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: he was really in it and his chin held up.
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: I think he can hang or even beat Morales, but
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: I don't know how how motivated he is. I don't
• 35:25
  Speaker 2: know that this is his career in the next five years.
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: He's got no real chin. He can be submitted. Morales
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: coming off the best performance of his life. So yeah,
• 35:36
  Speaker 2: everything leads to Morales here. He is the preferred play,
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: but I'm not going to ex schnell out at low ownership.
• 35:41
  Speaker 3: He is one way.
• 35:43
  Speaker 2: I'm fine getting completely different if I need to click
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: on Chanelle to get up to hocket In, Meticch and
• 35:49
  Speaker 2: Reese and whoever else it is that fits into my line,
• 35:52
  Speaker 2: but I'm kind of okay with that. I prefer him
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: over the other ones in his range, over the Max
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: Jiminez and whoever the other one super far down there was.
• 36:03
  Speaker 2: But I do think that Morales probably does get a
• 36:07
  Speaker 2: submission in this fight sixty almost a sixty five chance
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: at a finish with that new inside the distance line.
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: So I mean, I like him a lot more today
• 36:19
  Speaker 2: than I did on Sunday when he was like, when
• 36:21
  Speaker 2: he was minus two seventy or so, he was somebody
• 36:25
  Speaker 2: I was kind of thinking, all right, I'll ex him
• 36:27
  Speaker 2: out so I can get more Hocket. And I was
• 36:29
  Speaker 2: thinking like Valentine would be in at that time, But
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: now I really got to think about him over Hocket,
• 36:37
  Speaker 2: especially if he's gonna if he's gonna be lower on,
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: who's gonna be lower on?
• 36:40
  Speaker 3: I don't even know.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: I think they're both gonna be probably about the same.
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: You get one hundred dollars savings with morales, you get
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: a little worse. What minus one eighty versus minus two
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: twenty five inside the Ditson's for Hockett, you might see
• 36:54
  Speaker 1: hockeyt just a little bit more, But I think I
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: think it's pretty close. I definitely We're only place we
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: really differ is I prefer Gymnasts over Schnell, like a
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: two dollars better inside the distance, props, similar leverage. And
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: then I think the only one I don't know. Tisha
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: and Schanell are my clear least favorite down there. It
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: sounds like what you like Bueno Silva or Matt Chanell
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: more if you.
• 37:17
  Speaker 2: Have to pick Schnell, Schnell over Silva, Schnell over Titia,
• 37:21
  Speaker 2: and Schnell over Geminas for me, okay, that's probably it.
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: On the Schnell said, Yeah, if I was playing one
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: hundred and fifty lineups, which I doubt I am, I'd
• 37:32
  Speaker 1: probably play all twenty four fighters. But if I didn't
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: have like a Calvicante and no, I take that back,
• 37:40
  Speaker 1: I'm probably playing all twenty four. I keep looking at
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: enough pros and people I respect that do play them,
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: that are playing every single one. So all right, I
• 37:49
  Speaker 1: see you watching that game with the Broncos. Finally, I
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: definitely still in the Survivor streets, so I'm sweating out
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: these every week, and I'm on the Broncos. So it
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: is not a I've been looking at the school or
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: it's not fun, but at least they're driving.
• 38:02
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm expecting them to be like up two touchdowns
• 38:04
  Speaker 2: and not even care at the game at this point.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: But yeah, that's the one that we're done with this.
• 38:08
  Speaker 4: I have something to watch, yep, something to sweat after this.
• 38:11
  Speaker 4: All right, Last fights of the night, main event time
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: Gabriel bomb Theme minus one seventy eight Randy Brown plus
• 38:17
  Speaker 4: one fifty three. We are looking at minus two seventy
• 38:21
  Speaker 4: five for this fight to finish. Bomb Fee minus one
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: ten inside the distance Randy Brown plus two to fifty.
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: I mean, just a great fight in my opinion, for.
• 38:29
  Speaker 1: The sense of you have a favorite whoeverages four takedowns
• 38:33
  Speaker 1: per fifteen minutes. Then you have Randy Brown, who I
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: think he has the advantage on the feet, and just
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: regardless it's a twenty five minute fight with someone at
• 38:41
  Speaker 1: six or seventy six hundred, almost every win scores. When
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: you get to that price range, he'll be lower owned.
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: If he wins, you have a lot more flexibility in
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: terms of leaving money, spending up for options, et cetera.
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: I say you have more stars on the Brown side
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: than the bomb theme side. That makes me feel good.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: I didn't have a strong lean in this one, but
• 39:02
  Speaker 1: taking a one case savings excuse me. It is always
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: something I'm interested in doing, especially when I don't love
• 39:10
  Speaker 1: love the bottom tiers. So yeah, I'm gonna have a
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: bunch of this fight. Break it down, and then are
• 39:15
  Speaker 1: you gonna make a rule in this one?
• 39:18
  Speaker 3: Not no rule, but I do want a lot of
• 39:21
  Speaker 3: this fight. Bon fime has.
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: I was almost gonna say all the early finishing equity Brown,
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: I think that's he's just got a lot of early
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: finishing equity himself.
• 39:31
  Speaker 3: He is really good in the first round.
• 39:34
  Speaker 2: I think striking could go either way in the first round,
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: but bon Fime's big edge should be on the mat.
• 39:40
  Speaker 2: He is gonna be the better wrestler, more dangerous grappler,
• 39:43
  Speaker 2: and if there's a first round finish, it's him getting
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: his hand raised. After the second round, though, I don't
• 39:50
  Speaker 2: know that he's the better wrestler anymore. And I think
• 39:52
  Speaker 2: that Brown, if he's not getting subbed in those first
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: two rounds, I feel like it's too late for Bonfim
• 39:56
  Speaker 2: to sell him at that point when they're all when
• 39:59
  Speaker 2: they're all sweating, slippery, and Brown starts once he gets
• 40:02
  Speaker 2: into it, man, he starts feeling himself.
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: He is, he looks really good, and I think.
• 40:08
  Speaker 2: He is after the first round gonna have the clear
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: striking edge in this one. I think he'll also have
• 40:13
  Speaker 2: the clear cardio edge after the third round. So my
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: pick in this one is for Brown to get fourth
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: or a fifth round finish, and if he doesn't, I
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: think he wins the third, fourth, and the fifth on
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: the card.
• 40:23
  Speaker 3: So I'm picking Brown.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: I think he's the preferred money line play, He's the
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: preferred DFS play, and I think both Bondfien brothers lose.
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: I think if the first bondfime brother loses, it's also
• 40:35
  Speaker 2: gonna help Brown's chance win after his brother's all down
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: because he's all sad, hiss brotherless.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: I like your take. Well, two things First, on Monday,
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: this line was minus two hundred Bomb Theme now minus
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: one seventy eight, so a little buy back on the
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: Randy Brown side. Also, to finish was minus three twenty
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: five now minus two seventy five, so fifty cents came
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: in on the over, so Brown and the over making money.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: And then a question for you, if I'm telling you
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: right now, Bomb Theme wins this fight, how do you
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: see it really playing out? Is it just early dominance
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: through wrestling and he gets a quick finish? Is it? Yeah?
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: I would think the first round submission. Yeah.
• 41:13
  Speaker 1: So, so are you gonna have one hundred percent of
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: this fight? Like almost all Brown wins gotta be optimal?
• 41:18
  Speaker 1: And if you think Bomb Theme runs him over, I
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: mean that's got to score at eighty six.
• 41:23
  Speaker 2: I mean, since I plan on making twenty or less,
• 41:25
  Speaker 2: I would guess I do have one hundred percent of
• 41:27
  Speaker 2: this fight. But if I was making one hundred and
• 41:29
  Speaker 2: fifty lineups, I mean, the sport's just too fucked up
• 41:32
  Speaker 2: to be honest, you couldn't have one hundred and fifty,
• 41:34
  Speaker 2: Like just something crazy could happen and I poke into
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: your night, like I just hate you having one hundred
• 41:39
  Speaker 2: and fifty of anything in MMA now. So I try
• 41:43
  Speaker 2: to play a little safer with my twenty or less
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: now so that I can afford those big losses when
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: it is the fight I'm heavy on ends up with
• 41:52
  Speaker 2: a zero on each side, like the tom aspinall like
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: that shit kills me. So I'm kind of just done
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: forcing in. And it also makes your lineup a lot
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: different when you don't have a bond theme or a
• 42:04
  Speaker 2: brown and you can still have a good looking lineup
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: that you would think should be chalky, but you don't
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: have the main event that makes it difference.
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Yeah. No, I think those are all really good points.
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: I've started to and I've wrote it up like like
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: I still we still have fades and underway tags. I mean,
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: people still want takes and if they're only playing certain teams,
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: you only get to look a little bit. They want
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: to see that. But I mean the sport's so high
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: variants with ipokes and nutshots, with the fight's already finished,
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: and now it's not finished, and now this guy gets
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: knocked out. I mean the most, you know what I mean,
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: we see something new every week. There's variants on variants
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: on variants where Yeah, I mean, it's especially a fight
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: like the main event. I think that's probably a mistake
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: I've done. I almost always load up on it, but
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: when it's already so high owned like these are fading
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: it even eight percent of your portfolio. If you do
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: land on the nuts with one of those eight percent,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: you could be a solo shipper like the winners without
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: the main event. You get paid up a lot when
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: you do win. So I think it's going to be
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: on the optimal I think almost every week it is,
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: but there's always weeks throughout the year where it's not.
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: And when it's not, there's a lot better chance that
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: you're getting paid a lot more money if you are
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: on the winner there, and you can survive a lot
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: more down swings. You play more aggressive that way. So
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: it's all about a portfolio, honey, lineups you're making. But yeah,
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: in a vacuum, clearly the best fight to target, I
• 43:23
  Speaker 1: think it does score and is on the winner big Marley.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: Always love talking some fights with you. Always love to
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: see right now, the Bronco is finally starting to turn
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: around a bit, So I'm gonna get off of here,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: enjoy some basketball, enjoy some football again. All MMA content, projections, ownership,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: everything will be up tomorrow. Like always excited for a
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: for Eastern Fight night card. College football going on as
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: well NFL so much as you can see up here,
• 43:50
  Speaker 1: we'd love to have you at the Nation five days
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: for nineteen bucks using the code at ship nineteen final thoughts.
• 44:00
  Speaker 2: Hopefully it's fun card, Hopefully it's a profitable card. Got
• 44:03
  Speaker 2: the Colts is the early game on Sunday, so hopefully
• 44:06
  Speaker 2: I get to start my morning with a win before
• 44:08
  Speaker 2: we get into the main slate. So I'm hoping it's
• 44:10
  Speaker 2: a badass week and all around. But good luck to you, title,
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: good left to everybody listening. Let's ship it.
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I forgot. We got the early football game seven
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: thirty my time, so what probably a nine easter yep,
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: nine thirty Eastern. Big Marley will be on the Showdown playbook,
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: I believe, so check that up on the site for
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: his own Colts. We got some football after that. Two
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: games I believe on Monday. So yeah, a lot of
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: NFL college football MMA headover Shippingnation dot Com get in
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: the discord. That'll do it for us. Appreciate everyone hanging out,
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: Be safe, good luck this weekend for Big Marley on
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: titled Town Beach Most hand Man's Hand. Bass mother has
• 45:13
  Speaker 3: Most hand The step mother ans