Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Trump's GOP rift, Dems' midterm momentum & more

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Trump's GOP rift, Dems' midterm momentum & more · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yikes. Yikes is the word.
• 0:02
  Speaker 2: Okay, take a look this the moderate gop on Trump.
• 0:04
  Speaker 2: This includes leaners. This is about thirty to forty percent
• 0:07
  Speaker 2: of the party, depending on how you exactly look at.
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: Versus Kamala Harris.
• 0:10
  Speaker 2: Trump easily was winning amongst them by sixty nine points
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: back in October of twenty twenty four. Come over to
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  Speaker 2: this side of the screen. Look at this decline in
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: the lake erie. I mean, right now we're talking about us.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: We're talking about just a plus ten net approving. This
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: is within his own party. This is within his own party.
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: He's just barely above water. Do the quick mass with me.
• 0:30
  Speaker 2: That's sixty nine ten. That's a fifty nine point Trump.
• 0:34
  Speaker 2: That is five and nine in the course of under
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  Speaker 2: two years. So moderate Republicans abandoning Donald John Trump.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: And that is a big.
• 0:46
  Speaker 3: Uh oh And where and why why?
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: Why?
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  Speaker 2: Well, you were mentioning it in your intro, right, it's
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: the economy. You think a fifty nine point drop is
• 0:56
  Speaker 2: a lot? How about this one? Okay, whoa woo, This
• 1:01
  Speaker 2: is a seventy seven point drop. Okay, moderate gop on
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: Trump in the economy. Back in October of twenty twenty four,
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: he was more trusted than Kamala Harris by eighty points.
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: Now he's just one two three points above water. That is,
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: as I said, a seventy seven point drop on the
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: key issue that got Donald Trump re elected to a
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  Speaker 2: second term, where the Republican Party was locked up and
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: key with him.
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: Moderate Republicans have abandoned.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Donald Trump and now he is just treading water with
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  Speaker 2: a group that overwhelmingly.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Supported him and to reinforce.
• 1:36
  Speaker 3: This isn't overall. This is with moderate Republicans within his party.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: This is this is coming over to your side of
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  Speaker 1: the screen.
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: Moderate Republicans within his own party. We are talking about
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  Speaker 2: moderates and they make up about thirty to forty percent
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  Speaker 2: of the part.
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  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: And where in the economy, why is it when it
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: comes to the economy, where in the economy is it?
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: Is it hurting most?
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Yeah? Okay, see you see these positives.
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: Even though Trump has dropped, We've seen some positives on
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  Speaker 2: this side of the screen. Right, all right, how about
• 2:03
  Speaker 2: time for some negatives. Okay, moderate Republicans. Trump's that approval
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  Speaker 2: on Iran, he's six points underwater with in his own party,
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  Speaker 2: with in his own party, you think that's low how
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  Speaker 2: about seventeen points underwater on inflation. Inflation was the name
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: of the game with the economy back in twenty twenty four. Now,
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  Speaker 2: moderate Republicans, who make up roughly thirty to forty percent
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  Speaker 2: of the party have absolutely left Donald Trump aside, and
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: he is underwater on the key issue of the day.
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  Speaker 2: If I'm a Republican running for Congress and those swinging districts,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: I need those moderate Republicans, and they are leaving Donald Trump.
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: They may be leaving those Republican candidates as well.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: This is the best looking polling for Democrats in the
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Senate race since really the twentieth century. You're gonna have
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: to go back probably the late eighties, the last time
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  Speaker 2: they won a Senate race out there, when it was
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  Speaker 2: Lloyd Benson winning in nineteen hundred and eighty eight, because
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: just take a look here, this polling looked so much
• 2:55
  Speaker 2: different than it did eight years ago. You take a
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: look here, James Tellerico the latest poll against Kim Paxon.
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  Speaker 1: He's actually up by three points.
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: Look at where the race was between Better O'Rourke and
• 3:03
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz at this point in the twenty eighteen cycle.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz was a hit by six. This is very different.
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  Speaker 2: The democrat here is doing nine points better and what.
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  Speaker 1: Is super charging that?
• 3:13
  Speaker 2: Look at this, Independence moved from tie to plus thirty
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  Speaker 2: nine points for James tall Rico, Independence the name of
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  Speaker 2: the game shifting significantly to the left camp and super
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  Speaker 2: charging James Talerrico.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: It could be real.
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  Speaker 2: Every single time I look at the pong gong, Hm,
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  Speaker 2: this can't be right. This could be very very real.
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  Speaker 2: Democrats have a real shot in Texas. So twenty six
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  Speaker 2: different than twenty eighteen. Ted Cruz again who won.
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  Speaker 1: But it was very very very close, less than three points.
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  Speaker 3: How is Ted Cruz different than passing?
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  Speaker 2: How is Ted Cruz different than KEM Paxxon? Simply put
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  Speaker 2: Ted Cruise as popular. Kem Paxxon is not popular at all.
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  Speaker 2: That is I think one of the biggest differences in
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  Speaker 2: this race. Take a look here the GOP nominees net favorability.
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  Speaker 2: In July of twenty eighteen, Ted Cruz was eight points
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  Speaker 2: above water. Is favorable is eight points above his unfavorable.
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  Speaker 2: Look at this side of the screen. Very different. Indeed,
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  Speaker 2: Ken Paxton six points underwater with get this among independents
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  Speaker 2: forty seven points underwater. No wonder, no wonder that you're
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  Speaker 2: seeing major issues for Ken Paxson in this race.
• 4:15
  Speaker 3: So how's the president doing in Texas?
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  Speaker 1: Now, here's the other thing that's going on. How's the
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  Speaker 1: president doing in Texas?
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  Speaker 2: The president is super charging Democratic possibilities across the red states.
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  Speaker 2: Remember Donald Trump won Texas by double ditches, but now
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  Speaker 2: he's nine points underwater. He was slightly underwater back in
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  Speaker 2: twenty eighteen, but he's much further underwater right now in
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  Speaker 2: the great.
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  Speaker 1: State of Texas.
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  Speaker 4: So Texas, if it were to flip, would be fairly
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  Speaker 4: key for the math for Democrats to tie to take
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  Speaker 4: back the Senate. What are the prediction markets saying right
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: now about those two.
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  Speaker 2: Now, all of a sudden, you put Texas in play,
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  Speaker 2: You put places like Iowa, Ohio in play. You know
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  Speaker 2: you're talking about Alaska being potentially in play.
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  Speaker 1: Look at this chance to.
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  Speaker 2: Win the Senate now it's basically an even race. Republicans
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  Speaker 2: were three to two favorites a month ago. Look at
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  Speaker 2: where we are right now now, republicans chances have fallen significantly,
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  Speaker 2: just a fifty three percent chance to take to hold
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  Speaker 2: down to the United States Senate, Democrats have a real shot.
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  Speaker 1: Indeed, it's going to.
• 5:06
  Speaker 3: Be a pretty tense few months here.
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  Speaker 1: Just look at this.
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  Speaker 2: It has been a steady decline, like as slide going
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  Speaker 2: into the sea. You know, you go back January twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty five plus six, may have twenty twenty five minus seven,
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  Speaker 2: September of twenty twenty five minus eight, December of twenty
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  Speaker 2: twenty five minus thirteen, April of twenty twenty six minus seventeen,
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  Speaker 2: and now in an Averager polls, he is twenty one
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  Speaker 2: points under water. This is the lowest he has been
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  Speaker 2: in term number two. The bottom line is this Trump
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  Speaker 2: is at record lows for himself in term number two.
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  Speaker 2: He is very much underwater, despite whatever he is claiming
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  Speaker 2: up in his.
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  Speaker 3: Head of his a slide going into the sea.
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  Speaker 4: Evocative imagery there from Harry. When did this slide begin?
• 5:51
  Speaker 4: When did this slide begin? When did Trump slide into
• 5:55
  Speaker 4: the c begin? I mean, just take a look here.
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  Speaker 2: I mean, you know, it'd be one thing again if
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: we were told talking about just one pole, but we're
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: talking about the average holes. But when we're talking about
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: one pole, is there any pole that has Trump anywhere
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  Speaker 2: close to positive territory? Take a look here Trump's negative
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  Speaker 2: net approval rating. Every single poll that meets CNN's standards
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  Speaker 2: for publication has had Donald Trump underwater in the negative
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  Speaker 2: since March twenty ninth.
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  Speaker 1: Of twenty twenty five days in a row, it is
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  Speaker 1: four hundred and ninety four, nearly five.
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  Speaker 2: Hundred days in which Donald Trump has had a negative
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  Speaker 2: net approval rating.
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  Speaker 1: He's not anywhere close to positive.
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  Speaker 3: Lou Garrig of the presidents, here's the Lou Garrick.
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  Speaker 1: The cow Ripken of negative ratings.
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  Speaker 4: But people will say, hey, look, you know the president
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  Speaker 4: had low approval ratings in his first term.
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  Speaker 1: Also, not this slow, not this slow.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look here Trump's net approve ranging at this
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  Speaker 2: point and turn one. At this point he was twelve
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  Speaker 2: points underwater. He is now broken the twenty point barrier
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  Speaker 2: in the negative minus twenty points. And you know, I
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: always love a little nugget. Here goes from minus a
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  Speaker 2: to minus forty seven points.
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  Speaker 1: With independents who are driving this in one.
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  Speaker 4: Of the market say this means about his chances of
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  Speaker 4: maintaining control of the House.
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  Speaker 2: Yeah, okay, if you have a negative twenty one Netta
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  Speaker 2: per rat no way you're a party controls the House.
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  Speaker 2: If this holds until election day, chance to win the House.
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  Speaker 2: Democrats now up to an eighty four percent chance, up
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  Speaker 2: from seventy three percent just a few months ago. Republicans
• 7:16
  Speaker 2: now with just a sixteen percent chance. According to the
• 7:19
  Speaker 2: Caushy prediction markets, Trump's negative net approval rating is driving
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  Speaker 2: us Max Miller is going to cost his party, most
• 7:25
  Speaker 2: likely cost his party.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: A seat in the US House of Representatives.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: When we're talking about the politics of this, you could
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  Speaker 2: see this quite well in the Coush prediction market.
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  Speaker 1: Chance to win Ohio seven.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Look at this point Dexter, the Democrat thirty seven percent
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  Speaker 2: on July twenty fifth. Over the last few weeks, his
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: chances way up.
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  Speaker 1: To seventy percent.
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  Speaker 2: Max Miller's chances look at this falling down through the floor,
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  Speaker 2: falling into lake Erie. Going from sixty four percent now
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  Speaker 2: down to thirty percent, would seem like a race that
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  Speaker 2: was favoring Miller is now favoring the Democrat.
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  Speaker 1: Point Dexter. As this scandal has hit the press.
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  Speaker 3: No, this was ten days ago.
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  Speaker 1: This was yeah, this is ten days ago.
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  Speaker 3: This is not that long ago. That's a huge change
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  Speaker 3: in just a few days.
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  Speaker 4: And Harry, you and I eve Ben talking about this,
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  Speaker 4: is there way to measure the impact that scandals have
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  Speaker 4: on House races?
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  Speaker 1: Yees, scandals matter, Scandals matter.
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  Speaker 2: I know a lot of people think nothing matters, but
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  Speaker 2: scandals still do matter in our politics, and there's an
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  Speaker 2: easy way to see it. Okay, House members re elected
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  Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two and twenty twenty four, all members,
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  Speaker 2: we're talking about eighty five percent, including those who in
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: fact did not run for reelection. When you include those
• 8:25
  Speaker 2: in the dominator, we're talking about eighty five percent. How
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  Speaker 2: about members who are involved in a scandal. Look at
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  Speaker 2: that significantly lower, just fifty seven percent of them who
• 8:33
  Speaker 2: are involved in a scandal, So they do about thirty
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  Speaker 2: points worse on their chance of being re elected than
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  Speaker 2: all members of Congress do. So scandals absolutely do matter.
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  Speaker 2: Like the scandal that we're seeing right now in Ohio Sex.
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  Speaker 3: How much interest is there what's happening with Maxviller?
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  Speaker 1: Yeah, more than that.
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  Speaker 2: There is a lot of interest in what's going on
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  Speaker 2: in his home area.
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  Speaker 1: You can see it in the Google searches.
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  Speaker 2: Take a look here, Google searches for Max for Maxim'll
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  Speaker 2: look at this in Cleveland, the Acron area, which is
• 8:59
  Speaker 2: home area. Look at that, John said, Wow, up thirty
• 9:01
  Speaker 2: two hundred percent in just the last two weeks. This
• 9:06
  Speaker 2: is by far the record high for Max Miller in
• 9:09
  Speaker 2: his home area. The people there are listening to what
• 9:13
  Speaker 2: is going on with Max Miller, and obviously the stories
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  Speaker 2: are not flattering to him whatsoever.
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  Speaker 4: And I said, this is a Trump district, a Republican district, but.
• 9:22
  Speaker 3: Is it as republican maybe? Or what are the trends
• 9:25
  Speaker 3: in Ohio? Yeah?
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  Speaker 1: I think this is so important.
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  Speaker 2: This is already shaping up to be a bad Republican
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  Speaker 2: year in Ohio. When you have a scandal to attack
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  Speaker 2: onto it, No one of the prediction markets have moved
• 9:35
  Speaker 2: like they have. Take a look here Ohio voters on
• 9:38
  Speaker 2: Trump in twenty twenty four versus Kamala Harris, who won
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: by eleven points. Look at his net popularity rating now
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  Speaker 2: exactly right, Johnny B minus thirteen points. That's a nearly
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: twenty five point shift in under two years. And keep
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: in mind Ohio seven voted like Ohio as a whole,
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  Speaker 2: So what is going on in Ohio.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Very much will seep down to Ohio seven.
• 9:58
  Speaker 2: You put it all together, it is no wonder why
• 10:01
  Speaker 2: I said at the top of this Max Miller, already
• 10:03
  Speaker 2: running in a tough environment with the scandal, and if
• 10:05
  Speaker 2: he continues for him, will likely cost his party a
• 10:09
  Speaker 2: House seat.