Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Warning: MORE Inflation Data Just Out! 😰 + Stock Market News 14 February 2024

Transcript

Warning: MORE Inflation Data Just Out! 😰 + Stock Market News 14 February 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Phoenix here and good morning to you.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: It is another inflation day and today's inflation day looks a little bit more promising than yesterday's, and I apologize for being a minute late.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: I had to restart the computer.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Nvidia broadcast had crashed on me.
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: Hopefully not like the stock.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: Let me share my screen with you, walk you through what matters today, what's going to move the market, how we made money yesterday.
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: Yes, I actually made money yesterday, which may be irritating to some of you, but if I'll show you how, maybe it'll become a little bit more interesting rather than just irritating.
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: And, of course, come and learn from me if you wish.
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: Felix Ranson or slash webinar.
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Learn how an old banker makes money in almost sort of no time, which is really the intention here.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: So here is the inflation data just out.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: Let me grab my pen, rejik my desk and get cracking.
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: So yesterday we had slightly higher inflation data and then I thought the reaction was a little overblown.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Yeah, okay, there's going to be no rate cut in March, possibly not even in May, but they are going to come.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: And then they're going to come, they're going to come, they're going to come heavy, heavy and hard, I would imagine.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: So the PPI month on month wow, that's a thick pen is expected to be in at minus 0.1.
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: We got minus 0.2.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: That is lower than expected.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Now what the heck is PPI?
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: Producer price inflation.
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: So it's inflation at the manufacturing level which trickles down to you and me.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: The poor consumer sap out there.
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: Core PPE is also minus 0.1, lower than expected.
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: And that is all wonderful news, very good.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Is the market loving it or is the market reacting weirdly to such news?
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: Here is the pre-market.
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: I'm blocking Microsoft and Google.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: They're both up met our upper percentage point.
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: Amazon up 0.6, nvidia upa percent and a half Tesla percentage point.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So we're seeing a little bit of a morning rebound.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: If you look at spy SMP and you look on a minute chart and you look at exactly what happened at 830.
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: So this year was 830.
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: That data came out, the market liked it.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: The market's selling off a bit.
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: We're still green.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: The market doesn't always make a lot of sense in the short term, especially pre market.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Most people are far too intoxicated from the night before, or at least if they work in banking, they probably are.
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: So we got that data out just here at 830 and we're basically trading sideways from it.
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: A bit of algorithm madness over here happening at 830.
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: What the heck happened there?
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Up and down two points four times, but we're up.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: We're up half a percentage point, which is good news.
• 3:05
  Speaker 1: The doom in Bloomberg are saying stock futures reclaim solid ground after inflation miss.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: And that's good Some of your crane nonsense and Trump's running out of money apparently.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: So there we are.
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: That's good news, right, shall we walk you through a couple of points of how we can make money, how we can understand the market today.
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: So yesterday was a strange day where the volatility, the fear index, took a massive spike up right.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Everybody panicked.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: And the way you make money on those days is by actually always having some bearish trades open.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: And then we make money on those, and we took profits on like three of those yesterday.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: And shall I pull up?
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Let me see if I got the tracker thing here.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Nope, that's not the right one.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Let me find it for you.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: And it's a beautiful thing when you get big down days, because then those things make you more money and then typically you rebound the day after or the day after that or the day after that, and then in those moments you make money again.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: And the important thing is to just not always be in one direction.
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: That's what most people do when they're new to trading.
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: So we're now up $2,200 for February, which is quite nice, and a lot of that was half.
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: That was from yesterday, basically 30th of February.
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: Here we closed a bearish Oracle trade, a bearish Netflix trade, paypal.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: Well, that's not exactly making us rich, but you know, little trades is what adds up here.
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: So we're now up on the year 13%, which is pretty good, up $3,300.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: And I don't think I've spent more than three or four, probably four hours on that in total.
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: So very, very, very little time spent here, which is always the way I like to do it.
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: Let me walk you through some of the important bits of information that we need to look at and understand.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: So we saw a huge shift up in fear yesterday and I'm going to skip past some of these.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Some of this is a little bit, little bit too detailed.
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: The fear mongers put out this kind of chart and they basically say to you, seasonally, the first half of February is all right and seasonally, the second half of February is a misery show where we usually lose about a percentage point on the SMP on average.
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: It doesn't really make much difference, it's just seasonal.
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: I don't think there is really a lot to it.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't pay too much attention.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: Honestly, we've got a lot of strong data coming in, and video is one thing I want to talk about.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: And, yeah, we are, but we I mean the market are adverse to hitting the like button on videos such as this.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: Apparently, we are exposed to tech at relatively high levels, but not like 2008,.
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: 2007 was here for all of basically 2010 to 2017, we're at higher levels.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: 2020, we're at higher levels.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: And you also just got to think well, the next steam engine is technology again, right, it's AI, it's robotics.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: So it makes sense for people to have more exposure to technology and for that actually to be higher than it has been historically.
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: So I think you have to always look at every bit of data you get with a pinch of salt.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Okay, too much options data here.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: Now this is one chart I want you to understand.
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: This is Nvidia.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: We've even got a green pen, nvidia.
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Even I'm missing the eyes.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: Nvidia and earnings are these ones.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: So these are earnings events and we're about to get one, and what can you see is that typically, you sort of do a bit of a downward move and then up again and then sort of downward move and then up again and same story here.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: So the thought process therefore would be logically, possibly we might do the same thing and then we go up again.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be too exuberant and pin all my money and hope on Nvidia.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: I think they'll beat massively, but the market might still be disappointed just because expectations are so high.
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: And then people will come around and go yeah, but fundamentally they're still selling in X and so on, and then it'll probably bounce somewhat higher.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: But yeah, be a little bit careful with that so that you don't get caught out with that kind of data.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: It's important not to.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: But yeah, this morning looks pretty good, doesn't it?
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: It looks pretty juicy, I would say.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Anything down Walmart's, down Home Depot's down, everything else is pretty much bouncing up.
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: Happy Valentine's Day.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: That's very kind of you to say.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: You've actually had a lovely day.
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: I hope you have too.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I haven't gotten Winston a Valentine's gift, but somebody else which matters a little bit more.