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Inside Jed’s Bullpen Bet And The Bregman What-If · Monday Morning Cubs Show

• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: Are we clear?
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: We're clear?
• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, we're clear.
• 0:08
  SPEAKER_00: Good morning, good afternoon, and evening, Chicago Cubs fans.
• 0:11
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs Show.
• 0:13
  SPEAKER_00: Today is Monday, December 29th.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: It is your host, Carl.
• 0:18
  SPEAKER_00: This is a solo show.
• 0:19
  SPEAKER_00: Mahoney got COVID around Christmas time.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out, Mahoney, if you get a chance, follow him at TBidness on Twitter.
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_00: That's my co-host.
• 0:26
  SPEAKER_00: For most of these episodes, Mahoney's out sick.
• 0:29
  SPEAKER_00: He's on the injured list.
• 0:30
  SPEAKER_00: I believe just a seven-day illness.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_00: Or something like that.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Who knows with kids?
• 0:36
  SPEAKER_00: We talked last episode.
• 0:37
  SPEAKER_00: Kids' presents, uh, boogers, germs, just getting sick like year-round if you're a parent.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: So shout out to the parents that are tuning into this.
• 0:45
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out to all the maniacs.
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to the Monday Morning Cubs Show.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: Another thrilling week in Cubs offseason mania for us to recap.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: Going into the Cubs convention in January of next year, you know, this is not really the tone a lot of you expected.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: If you have been paying attention to some of the messaging, and by some of the messaging, I mean like everything we've said about the Cubs this offseason on this show.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: You're not surprised that Hunter Harvey is our big news or Jacob Webb, Jacob Webb or Hobie Milner.
• 1:19
  SPEAKER_00: Film Maton.
• 1:20
  SPEAKER_00: I told you guys like this is Jed, the cook period for Jed, and we'll just talk a little bit more high levels we get into the show here today.
• 1:29
  SPEAKER_00: The cook period for him is right now.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: You know, we're I'm if we do we if we do get a big name like an Alex Bregman, I'm gonna tease what that would look like.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm not gonna rule that out necessarily based on just the hyperactivity in the the depth in which we're we're going to solidify the bullpen.
• 1:48
  SPEAKER_00: I said I wanted veteran journeymen who've kind of seen a lot of stuff.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: That's literally every single guy we've brought in here.
• 1:56
  SPEAKER_00: Veteran journeyman.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: So we've we have a lot of stuff, I think, to be positive about if you're willing to look past the fact, you know, that we're like a third-tier free agency uh you know organization at this point.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll talk about that stuff, guys.
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_00: It's the Monday morning cub show.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 2:11
  SPEAKER_00: I like to do this if we're solo, I'll say 45 minutes.
• 2:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, holding me to that is Mrs.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: Carl.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: We got 40, I gotta go with her to run some errands.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: So this is gonna be 45 minutes.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_00: Nor if I if I go over 45 minutes, I'm in big trouble today, folks.
• 2:26
  SPEAKER_00: If I go 46 minutes, I should say big trouble because she's not that type of lady.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know, she doesn't hold a grudge, she doesn't like to get pissed off just to get pissed off, like some of you Cubs fans about Jed Warrior.
• 2:39
  SPEAKER_00: She's pretty even killed.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: That said, she said, that said, she said, uh, you know, we gotta be out the door.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_00: We gotta be out the door to go run these errands.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: So go do, I think she said go do your show.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Then just go do your show.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: So this is your we're doing the show.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Solo, guys.
• 2:56
  SPEAKER_00: Monday morning cub show.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: If you guys get a chance, throw five stars on a Spotify or Apple.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of you guys have already appreciate that.
• 3:03
  SPEAKER_00: Helps with sponsors, which reminds me, Thirsty Vaquero is the title sponsor of the Monday morning cub show, which is important because you probably haven't had a Thirsty Vaquero, which is a Mexican style soda with the signature spicy finish.
• 3:15
  SPEAKER_00: That's all bite, no rattle.
• 3:17
  SPEAKER_00: Three bold flavors, a non-alcoholic beverage that I like this time of year.
• 3:21
  SPEAKER_00: But go heavy around the holidays.
• 3:23
  SPEAKER_00: Give yourself a break.
• 3:25
  SPEAKER_00: You know, reach into the fridge, get something festive too, goes quite well.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: A number of takeouts.
• 3:32
  SPEAKER_00: Greek, Mediterranean, you know, what side of the Baltic are you on?
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: Mediterranean.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: You're on that side.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, you like an olive spread.
• 3:40
  SPEAKER_00: I would like to pair that with a watermelon jalapeno, my friends.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Okay.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_00: What maybe you're Moroccan.
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you have something, maybe a little rice pea laugh, something slightly more exotic, saffron, mango habanero.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'll do this all fucking day, guys.
• 3:56
  SPEAKER_00: I'll walk around the Mediterranean.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: I'll go, where let's go to Monaco, my the smallest country on earth.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: And I'll guarantee you you can go to Monaco with a chile lime, thirsty vaquero, all bite no rattle, signature spicy finish, Mexican-style soda, and that will go toe-to-toe with any of those heavy hitters with the yachts, the billionaires.
• 4:17
  SPEAKER_00: This is that's what they're drinking in Monaco.
• 4:19
  SPEAKER_00: Tore it, baby.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: Take it to Istanbul.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: I'm being dead serious when I say you guys might think I'm losing my mind here.
• 4:25
  SPEAKER_00: I'm being dead serious when I tell you.
• 4:27
  SPEAKER_00: This is an internationally sensational beverage.
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: Get it on Amazon.
• 4:32
  SPEAKER_00: Thirsty Vicaro, the official beverage sponsor of the Monday Morning Cub Show, making Monday morning cub shows possible.
• 4:38
  SPEAKER_00: So who doesn't love that?
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, let's get into the show today.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna start with the mediest topic, and that's can Alex Bregman still somehow end up on the Chicago Cubs?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: I'll talk about some of the uh you know specific bullpen editions later.
• 4:53
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, I think at like a fair starting point, just for purposes of entertainment, I suppose.
• 4:57
  SPEAKER_00: It's been so boring.
• 4:59
  SPEAKER_00: I I mean, we try to stress it, you try to dress it up.
• 5:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Ricketts doesn't have cash.
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: We've talked about interest rates, lending.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, Tom Ricketts took out a gigantic loan to own the Chicago Cubs.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: COVID uh, you know, destroyed the cash on hand, I should say, or the cash relative to the operating finances of the business, you know, which then just puts them behind the eight ball with payroll.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: And I've said this a thousand times.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: The reason it's disappointing is there's a grace period after COVID.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: It is, I suppose, based on insurance policies, an act of God.
• 5:31
  SPEAKER_00: So sure, you get 21, 22, 23, you know, okay-ish, four, twenty-four.
• 5:39
  SPEAKER_00: You know, when Craig Council signs a record deal to be the highest paid manager in MLB history, it's obvious we have money to do extraordinary things, you know, ridiculous things, I should say.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: So this just goes back to Alex Bregman playing third base for the Cubs, where the reality is a little bit different, and hopefully it's starting to shape up for some folks out there that just get a little bit more comfortable with like the state of reality.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: If you've seen The Matrix, like I'm not trying, what is it, red pill?
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not, I don't want to like red pill everybody too hard here.
• 6:11
  SPEAKER_00: And is that even an appropriate term to be using for sports contexts?
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Basically, just peel back the curtain a little bit, you know, show you guys how that sausage is made.
• 6:21
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I love the taste of a Vienna beef hot dog as much as anybody listening to this right now.
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: But you peel back the curtain, you see how that hot dog's made.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, you're gonna ask a couple questions.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: And so that's basically what I'm doing.
• 6:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'm taking on the factory floor of Vienna all beef hot dogs, and I'm showing you how Tom Ricketts in the Ricketts family and the Cubs organization is spending cash on the roster.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: And I've said up the people we will get this offseason identified immediately will be these veteran journeyman bullpen guys, and that's basically all we have seen.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: Tyler Austin would be the exception to this.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Tyler Austin would be the exception.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: That's the former Yankees top prospect who went to the Japanese league for like six years, posted a near 950 OPS, which is on base plus slugging, which would put him in the top 5% of Major League Base with 2% of Major League Baseball players.
• 7:13
  SPEAKER_00: If he did that, 1% of how many?
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: How many would we are we including relievers?
• 7:21
  SPEAKER_00: My point is that most of the action has been low and light.
• 7:24
  SPEAKER_00: So we're talking about what it would take for Alex Bregman to be a cub, you know.
• 7:27
  SPEAKER_00: A like a lot of I mean, I would suppose a fair amount of luck would be the first thing.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Teams dropping out, you know, teams not willing to pay a price.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: So you'd have to have teams that like view Alex Bregman negatively, which doesn't seem like it's the case.
• 7:47
  SPEAKER_00: There's a couple of big bitters in on him, I believe.
• 7:50
  SPEAKER_00: What are the names?
• 7:51
  SPEAKER_00: Blue Jays Blue Jays?
• 7:55
  SPEAKER_00: As I said that, a blue jay flew into my window.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you just heard that thud.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: That was a blue that was a blue jay native to this wooded area.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: Just flew right in the window as I said that.
• 8:08
  SPEAKER_00: So I got Bregman to the Blue Jays with a bullet right now.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: Right now.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Alex Bregman to the Blue Jays, folks.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: If he did play for the Cubs, this is what would have to happen.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: Nico Horner would have to get traded.
• 8:20
  SPEAKER_00: Because Nico Horner's owed whatever it is, 15, 13, 16 million, not much.
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_00: Fit 14, 15, something like that.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: Like big put the calculator away.
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_00: Just stay high level with me.
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_00: You'd have to trade Nico Horner, move Matt Shaw to second base, then bring in Bregman to third.
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_00: And then the question is the upgrade of like Bregman versus Nico Horner there, which then Bregman's gonna cost you$35 million a year.
• 8:46
  SPEAKER_00: So you're you're basically that's a$22 million gap.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: If need say Nico's$15 million, it's a 20 million gap there.
• 8:55
  SPEAKER_00: You're upgrading your infield household, getting rid of a gold glove award-winning second baseman who hits 300.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: So there's a couple different ways, but that would have to, you know, where like Bregman exists, I suppose, on the Cubs roster.
• 9:09
  SPEAKER_00: You'd have teams they lose interest.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: Then the Cubs, I think Bregman wants five or six years with like an opt-out after the first year, because he's a cunt, is my the easiest way to put it.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: He's a cunt.
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Although one of my all-time favorite position players to not wear a Chicago Cubs or White Sox uniform.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly one of my favorite players of this generation.
• 9:32
  SPEAKER_00: Certainly.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: All time.
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: I just said all time.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: Why would I say generation?
• 9:37
  SPEAKER_00: I like Bregman a lot.
• 9:39
  SPEAKER_00: I have.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: Search the tweets, folks.
• 9:42
  SPEAKER_00: I have been Yeah, usually say this for Dansby Swanson, but I hit I've been blowing Alex Bregman as a baseball player for I mean the better part of 12, 13 years.
• 9:52
  SPEAKER_00: You know, go back to his freshman days at LSU.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I was I was giving that guy a helmet wash.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: Big time.
• 9:59
  SPEAKER_00: Love this guy's play.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: Team USA shortstop freshman year.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I've loved this guy forever, would love to see him on the Cubs.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_00: Now, mechanically, though, I don't see a way where you can have Bregman and Nico Horner.
• 10:14
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have the cash.
• 10:16
  SPEAKER_00: Like we would have to free up some money, and we'd have now in a perfect world, Bregman could play third base.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_00: I suppose Matt Shaw then would be a utility guy.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: He could not be a utility guy.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: He doesn't have the confidence, he doesn't have the experience, he doesn't have the style of game, so to say, to be a utility guy.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: So I think you're like asking, you would you'd be getting a worse version of matchup.
• 10:42
  SPEAKER_00: People would say, well, Matt Shaw got better in the second half last year.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: Let's just turn him into a utility guy.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_00: I think that impacts Matt Shaw.
• 10:48
  SPEAKER_00: So he didn't have to play every day.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: You'd have to move him to second base.
• 10:51
  SPEAKER_00: Now he's probably a hell of a second baseman.
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: Shortstop in college, we moved him to third base.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: He just played his first season at third base, was a finalist for the National League Gold Club.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_00: I believe in only 125 games played.
• 11:05
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he went down in the middle of the season.
• 11:07
  SPEAKER_00: His defense sensational.
• 11:09
  SPEAKER_00: Is Bregman's that much better?
• 11:11
  SPEAKER_00: Or is it better?
• 11:12
  SPEAKER_00: It's good.
• 11:13
  SPEAKER_00: It's very good.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: So these are the things I've wane as I'm talking about Alex Bregman on the Cubs and being realistic.
• 11:22
  SPEAKER_00: If you take the baseball reference wins above replacement for both Matt Shaw and Alex Bregman last year, and you divide that number by total plate appearances, Matt Shaw is more valuable per plate appearance by baseball reference win above replacement than Alex Bregman last year.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_00: He made$750,000, Matt Shaw did.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_00: Alex Bregman made 40 something, but did he make 40?
• 11:46
  SPEAKER_00: He made over 35.
• 11:48
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a fat that's almost a 50x factor for a guy who is like arguable arguably not as good as Matt Shaw.
• 11:58
  SPEAKER_00: I didn't say he's not as good.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: I'm saying the the word choice here is important.
• 12:02
  SPEAKER_00: Arguably not as good as Matt Shaw.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: Does that make sense?
• 12:08
  SPEAKER_00: Because then if we consider that angle, why the fuck would we trade Nico Horner to bring in Alex Bregman to pay an extra$22 million to get a little bit more pop in the lineup?
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: You know, to get a little bit more slugging percentage in the lineup.
• 12:21
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: You know, but here's the alternative to this.
• 12:25
  SPEAKER_00: Nico Horner's trade value is exceptionally high.
• 12:29
  SPEAKER_00: Way higher than I would have ever thought.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: He's way better than I would have ever thought.
• 12:33
  SPEAKER_00: I I didn't even really love the draft pick that much.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_00: Back end of the first round, when was it?
• 12:41
  SPEAKER_00: 2016, 17 Stanford kid, not a lot of pop in the bat.
• 12:46
  SPEAKER_00: No, I'm just thinking the last time we went first late first round to a Pac-10, Pac-12 school was a guy named Brett Jackson, I believe.
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that just haunts me to these days.
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_00: If you don't know Brett Jackson, don't take the time to look up his minor league statistics at risk of brain aneurysm.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: Or his major league strikeout rate, I should say.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: I mean that the and I don't need to get too narrative-based or poetic here about my trepidation towards Nico Horner.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: We don't need to drag Brett Jackson in this.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Handsome motherfucker.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he would have ripped if he if he could have been around with Rizzo, those that would have been an elite.
• 13:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: Just just it would have been nice to have Brett Jackson part of that crew, but we don't need to go down this path.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: Stay focused here, Carl.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: This is a solo show presented by Thirsty McCarroll.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_00: I'll all bite no rattle.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Mexican style soda, signature spicy finish.
• 13:46
  SPEAKER_00: Get it on Amazon.
• 13:48
  SPEAKER_00: What we're talking about here is is Nico Horner is he like already played his best baseball?
• 13:54
  SPEAKER_00: So that would be a question.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_00: And that I'm kind of inclined to, I'm listening to arguments on this.
• 14:00
  SPEAKER_00: That Nico Horner, the best version he's already played, he like he can't get better than he was last year.
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Can he?
• 14:06
  SPEAKER_00: Can he hit for more power?
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: But then he probably is swinging through pitches and striking out at a higher rate.
• 14:14
  SPEAKER_00: So been on a big T kick lately, by the way.
• 14:18
  SPEAKER_00: Any T heads out there, by all means, any T-heads out there, please rope me in.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: Teach me, you know, communicate with me.
• 14:29
  SPEAKER_00: Just been drinking a lot of tea around the holidays.
• 14:32
  SPEAKER_00: I've enjoyed the herbal infusion.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: Um but Nico Horner, has he played his his like best baseball already?
• 14:38
  SPEAKER_00: And can we expect five wins above replacement from a guy who doesn't hit 10 homers a season?
• 14:47
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that that's such an anomaly.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: I would be surprised if the Cubs front office, which is notoriously progressive, data analytic forward, uh they'd have to look at Nico and just immediately put the R word on him, regression.
• 15:01
  SPEAKER_00: Hate to say it with baseball players.
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: You hate to use that word with baseball player.
• 15:05
  SPEAKER_00: But is it like totally unrealistic for me to say I, you know, I uh don't believe Nico Horner will be as good next year as he was last year.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: He was so good last year.
• 15:19
  SPEAKER_00: So that's what makes him there for an interesting trade candidate if you subscribe to the regression model.
• 15:28
  SPEAKER_00: If you subscribe to the idea that Nico Horner can't get better, then his trade, but you'd have to know his game.
• 15:35
  SPEAKER_00: This is a front office decision, player development, the people that are with him every day.
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Like, is he getting better?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Is he getting worse?
• 15:40
  SPEAKER_00: Do you think he's getting better?
• 15:42
  SPEAKER_00: The Cubs are in obviously the best position to make that decision.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: Now the Giants come calling Buster Posey, who just hired Tony Vitello out of the University of Tennessee to be the manager with no major league experience, maybe some major league experience.
• 15:59
  SPEAKER_00: Uh none, I believe.
• 16:01
  SPEAKER_00: Has only been in college ranks for the last 15 years.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: Like Buster Posey's doing some weird stuff.
• 16:06
  SPEAKER_00: I can see the Giants buying high on Nico Horner.
• 16:09
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have a report on this.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not asking Mooney for sources.
• 16:12
  SPEAKER_00: But if you got him, Mooney, give them to me.
• 16:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not asking for that shit.
• 16:16
  SPEAKER_00: What I'm saying is I'm just thinking about where Nico Horner would match up well.
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, San Francisco Giants.
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: They don't give a shit about the cash on his salary.
• 16:26
  SPEAKER_00: We wouldn't have to pay anything.
• 16:28
  SPEAKER_00: We'd probably get a couple de I would I would guess you'd probably get a couple decent minor leaguers in return.
• 16:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know.
• 16:38
  SPEAKER_00: The crux of this though is you wouldn't people are going nuts right now.
• 16:43
  SPEAKER_00: Trade Nico Horner.
• 16:44
  SPEAKER_00: What are you?
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: Crazy?
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: Just hear me out.
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: If you if you trade Nico Horner, you're only doing it because you're going to sign Alex Bregman.
• 16:53
  SPEAKER_00: I should have said that.
• 16:54
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not trying to freak you guys out.
• 16:57
  SPEAKER_00: So that's the dynamic.
• 16:59
  SPEAKER_00: If you're gonna if we're even gonna be talking about like Nico Horner, we'll move him, Shaw Russell, it's because you are singularly focused on the fact that like I shouldn't even say it, you you have a what you have a 100% guarantee Alex Bregman is going to sign, or you have already signed him.
• 17:18
  SPEAKER_00: And alas, my friends, I say this all to circle back with the conclusion that I would not trade Nico Horner and I would not sign Alex Bregman.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: But if there is a path forward, it's Alex Bregman for five or six years for at le like 30 million a season at least, with an opt-out after probably year at least year two, probably year one.
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: Probably year one opt-out again, because again, he's a be a cunt contractually at the negotiation table.
• 17:52
  SPEAKER_00: He's nothing but just a rotten cunt.
• 17:56
  SPEAKER_00: I gotta use a better word, because that's actually stiff language for a lot of people, or for me, that's that's that's not much.
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm I apologi I would like to apologize, especially the women in our in this audience.
• 18:07
  SPEAKER_00: What I should say is that Alex Bregman is a raging cunt, is a impossible person to deal with from my perspective.
• 18:22
  SPEAKER_00: Sign the contract, buddy.
• 18:24
  SPEAKER_00: All these opt-outs.
• 18:25
  SPEAKER_00: But it's gonna take a complicated contract that's gonna be overpriced, that's gonna force us to trade somebody that we like, that's gonna force us to view somebody we like in Nico Horner negatively and say he's gonna get worse, we gotta trade him to the Giants, we can move Matt Shaw to a position he's never played, so we get Alex Bregman in here for a team he doesn't give a fuck about.
• 18:46
  SPEAKER_00: And some of you guys are gonna get bad when Bregman signed somewhere else, and that kind of bothers me.
• 18:52
  SPEAKER_00: So you can replay this as many times as you want for this to settle in, but the logic holds true.
• 19:00
  SPEAKER_00: This hoopla, signing people just assigned people to keep us happy.
• 19:04
  SPEAKER_00: Who gives a shit about whether or not the fans are happy?
• 19:08
  SPEAKER_00: Who cares what I think?
• 19:09
  SPEAKER_00: Who cares what you think?
• 19:11
  SPEAKER_00: I care about Phil Mayton's breaking ball.
• 19:14
  SPEAKER_00: No, I really like this bullpen, and this is an opportunity to be serious.
• 19:17
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, we should care what each other think.
• 19:19
  SPEAKER_00: We're fans.
• 19:20
  SPEAKER_00: If you watch 162 games, if you follow, shouldn't say watch.
• 19:24
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's times I you can't watch all maybe maybe you can.
• 19:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I try I probably got in 157 last year, 156.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: That's by far the most I've ever gotten in.
• 19:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know, people do 162.
• 19:38
  SPEAKER_00: I do follow all 160.
• 19:41
  SPEAKER_00: You know, if you're file every day, if you care, standings up and down, shoot, your opinion's valid.
• 19:47
  SPEAKER_00: You're you matter what you want out of you.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: You have earned the right as a baseball fan to have an opinion about the makeup of the club, which I think is unique to baseball, where like it's so easy to be a Bears fan.
• 20:00
  SPEAKER_00: And be like, this fucking guy, who's this bum?
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: Like, there's no way a baseball fan is asking who's this guy.
• 20:06
  SPEAKER_00: We know everything.
• 20:07
  SPEAKER_00: We know where these guys were, like, everything about these players.
• 20:10
  SPEAKER_00: How they uh in every way, shape, or form, and how they came to us and when they were hurt, you know, all their metrics.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_00: Football, you're just like, this fucking guy just dropping passes.
• 20:20
  SPEAKER_00: This this guy's a bum.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_00: I hate the who is this guy?
• 20:23
  SPEAKER_00: Where'd this guy go to school?
• 20:25
  SPEAKER_00: Baseball, I will tell I will tell you that Hunter Harvey is from I like probably I would guess 60 miles north of Charlotte, maybe 100 miles northeast of Asheville, North Carolina.
• 20:37
  SPEAKER_00: 21st overall pick 2013.
• 20:40
  SPEAKER_00: Took him a while to get to the big leagues.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_00: Pre-2015 top 100 prospect.
• 20:46
  SPEAKER_00: You know, throws 100, 6'3, 230, played for a couple teams.
• 20:51
  SPEAKER_00: Orioles can't develop guys.
• 20:53
  SPEAKER_00: You know, even though Orioles are in this guy's backyard, get a chance to see him every single fucking day in high school.
• 20:58
  SPEAKER_00: Can't develop him, can't figure him out, ship him to the Nationals.
• 21:01
  SPEAKER_00: He ends up with the Royals.
• 21:03
  SPEAKER_00: So no, there will be no point in the season where I see Hunter Harvey and I go, who the hell is this guy?
• 21:09
  SPEAKER_00: I all I have I already know everything I want to know about this player, which comes back to you in your opinion as a fan, because I know so many people are like this.
• 21:19
  SPEAKER_00: You know, and they're in my opinion, as baseball fans, that then empowers you or enables you or credits you in some way, shape or form.
• 21:30
  SPEAKER_00: Where your opinion's valid and it should it matters.
• 21:33
  SPEAKER_00: I care, I mean, I mean it.
• 21:35
  SPEAKER_00: And uh, you know, like have your buddies, have your group chats, you know, get in your arguments and all that shit.
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_00: But if you follow this team, you're more than entitled to have a staunch opinion.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: As such, my staunch opinion is that I think it would be a waste of money to bring in Alex Bregman for what could be like a marginal upgrade over Nico Horner, and then like taking a risk that Matt Shaw, you know, I don't know.
• 22:01
  SPEAKER_00: So disagree, uh maybe, I don't know.
• 22:06
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the disagreement part.
• 22:09
  SPEAKER_00: October against premium pitching, like, yeah, I want Alex Bregman.
• 22:15
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't care.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I want that guy, I definitely want that guy in the lineup.
• 22:19
  SPEAKER_00: That's really the argument.
• 22:21
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like a$22 million because over the course of 162 games, like it will come out to like a coin flip, I think, between this Bregman and Shaw or Shaw and Nico.
• 22:35
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I think Nico and Bregman over 162, I think it's fine.
• 22:40
  SPEAKER_00: Like you have arguments for both players at each position, respectively, but you'd basically make in this bet because you'd want Bregman there in October because he can change, you know, he could change the game with a three-run homer.
• 22:53
  SPEAKER_00: So it's like$22 million for a guy who can get a three-run homer.
• 22:56
  SPEAKER_00: Like, we got plenty of those guys in AAA.
• 22:58
  SPEAKER_00: We have plenty of guys who get a three-run homers in AAA.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: We don't have positions for them.
• 23:02
  SPEAKER_00: They may not be great runners, could have a lot of swing and miss.
• 23:08
  SPEAKER_00: So let's just stay here quickly, guys.
• 23:11
  SPEAKER_00: It's a Monday morning cub show.
• 23:13
  SPEAKER_00: Solo, appreciate you guys tuning in.
• 23:15
  SPEAKER_00: If you get a chance, five stars on Spotify or Apple.
• 23:18
  SPEAKER_00: Help with sponsors, helps with traffic, helps in general, you know, helps just helps, helps do the show.
• 23:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know.
• 23:28
  SPEAKER_00: Do I gotta be more specific in asking a call to action here?
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_00: It makes me feel better about myself.
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_00: No, it does legitimately help with sponsorship stuff to show traction.
• 23:39
  SPEAKER_00: Because there's other cub shows, there's other shows with reviews.
• 23:43
  SPEAKER_00: Huh.
• 23:44
  SPEAKER_00: You know, what's a good reflection of audience engagement?
• 23:49
  SPEAKER_00: Here I am calling to action.
• 23:50
  SPEAKER_00: I need to be talking about the Cubs, folks.
• 23:52
  SPEAKER_00: This bullpen, Jed Hoyer is putting together, I think it's a masterclass.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: I think what I'm seeing is here's a sign, this Jacob Webb fellow um with a 93 mile an hour fastball, and just really like kind of standout stuff, like a standout fly ball pitcher, which in my time as a Cubs fan, I don't know if we've ever intentionally put fly ball pitchers into the bullpen under the premise that like 50 games a year at Wrigley, the wind is howling in 40 times a year at Wrigley, the wind is blowing in.
• 24:29
  SPEAKER_00: So, like, yeah, I think it would make sense.
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: I get he's he's I believe in the 95th percentile and fly ball rate, which is traditionally not a like a really good thing you want from a reliever.
• 24:42
  SPEAKER_00: You like ground ball rates from relievers because a double play situations and stressful situations, you're always looking for late double plays.
• 24:51
  SPEAKER_00: There's just way more of an emphasis on that late double play.
• 24:55
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then the other thing, obviously, you know, fly ball rates lead to home runs.
• 25:01
  SPEAKER_00: And so, like, the higher your fly ball rate, the higher your home run rate, and like the less likely you would want that person pitching in a high-leverage situation late in a major league game.
• 25:11
  SPEAKER_00: Now, in this case, though, something that's interesting about the Cubs and playing at Wrigley Field is like you have this schizophrenic ballpark that like one day wins holling out, one day wins hollow in.
• 25:22
  SPEAKER_00: You know, there isn't a sense, and I'm not saying the only reason this guy's on the team is because his fly ball rate.
• 25:27
  SPEAKER_00: His shit's good.
• 25:28
  SPEAKER_00: He's got good stuff, good extension, good breaking stuff.
• 25:31
  SPEAKER_00: The only thing that isn't amazing on Jacob Webb is the fastball velocity, but all the other metrics grayed out, and he's like proven himself older guy, you know, established, etc.
• 25:41
  SPEAKER_00: He could have an elite year if used appropriately and leveraged appropriately.
• 25:47
  SPEAKER_00: And specifically, what I'm calling out are these situations at Wrigley where the wind is howling in.
• 25:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I know it's easier for a lot of people, but I'm talking about a guy who could come in and just flat out categorically dominate you.
• 25:58
  SPEAKER_00: Where, like, I mean, dominate balls in the air, Wrigley, when the wind's hollering in like that, are are automatic out.
• 26:05
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're telling me we have a guy who's atypically prone to serving up in like an unbelievably high amount of fly balls, then I'm looking at Jed, I'm just going, just a little golf clap.
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: Like, hey, I like that touch.
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: Now, do I know Jacob Webb personally?
• 26:20
  SPEAKER_00: Do I like love his step?
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: Am I attached to this guy in any sense?
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: No, it's just more about the idea of us like I see that I'm going, that's a little bit different.
• 26:29
  SPEAKER_00: That's a little bit different than just throwing uh you know 15 million, no, 13 million at Pete Fairbanks, who's not very good in cold weather, which I I had said we I wanted Pete Fairbanks.
• 26:42
  SPEAKER_00: I think a one-year deal with the Miami Marlins, that that'll be a fun year down in Miami.
• 26:46
  SPEAKER_00: You know, he doesn't have to leave Florida, gets a state income tax, you know, break.
• 26:53
  SPEAKER_00: Excuse me.
• 26:55
  SPEAKER_00: My point is I like what Jed has done with the bullpen.
• 26:58
  SPEAKER_00: I've talked about this extensively.
• 27:00
  SPEAKER_00: Hobie Milner, love that guy.
• 27:01
  SPEAKER_00: Phil Mayton, love him, Jacob Webb, love him.
• 27:03
  SPEAKER_00: Hunter Harvey, interesting guy, throws 100, you know, and has had just a real interesting career and has bounced around a lot.
• 27:11
  SPEAKER_00: So, like, here's your Brad Keller watch would be like a Hunter Harvey.
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_00: Although Brad Keller was a much bigger prospect, had started and has much more major league experience uh by the time he came to the Cubs, although it was terrible experience.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_00: He had a 1.67 whip from 2021 to 2024 before joining the Cubs in 25.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_00: And then was elite.
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what did he just sign?
• 27:34
  SPEAKER_00: Two year 22 million to Phillies or something?
• 27:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm this is and I'm not even trying to be big time.
• 27:40
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just calling this off the top of the head.
• 27:42
  SPEAKER_00: It could be with somebody else, it could be the it could be, it's not the Pirates, you know.
• 27:48
  SPEAKER_00: Uh I almost did a speaking of which on the Pirates, so let's just do it now.
• 27:51
  SPEAKER_00: Speaking of which on the Pirates, can't figure out what they're doing.
• 27:53
  SPEAKER_00: Two years,$29 million to Ryan O'Hearn, trading for Jake Mangum.
• 27:58
  SPEAKER_00: They they're getting better.
• 27:59
  SPEAKER_00: That's a weird situation.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_00: Shout out Pirates fans.
• 28:03
  SPEAKER_00: Beautiful ballpark.
• 28:04
  SPEAKER_00: No clue.
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_00: Ryan O'Hearn, no, no clue how we get to this two-year$14.5 million AV deal.
• 28:12
  SPEAKER_00: That's in our division.
• 28:14
  SPEAKER_00: When we get mad about the Cubs and thought, look at what the Pirates is a two year two-year deal for a first base.
• 28:20
  SPEAKER_00: What are we doing here, guys?
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_00: What are we doing?
• 28:25
  SPEAKER_00: A couple other things here.
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know?
• 28:29
  SPEAKER_00: Just a couple other uh other I I suppose items of note as this offseason gets into the new year in 26.
• 28:41
  SPEAKER_00: So we were very specific and have talked specifically about Alex Bregman on the show, but I do want to take a step back to make a higher point and say, like, that is a good exercise of what it would take for the Cubs to go out and sign a premier free agent.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_00: And I've made the argument we're in the third tier.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_00: We're below the Yankees, the Dodgers, and the Mets, which is the first tier.
• 29:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then we're not in the conversation with the Padres and the Phillies and the Braves and the Blue Jays, and maybe even the Red Sox.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_00: You know?
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_00: Like I just know we're not.
• 29:18
  SPEAKER_00: So for purposes of January going to spring training, like I would encourage maniacs, if if you're gonna find any joy or value out of this offseason, it's gonna be because you've gotten like get weird with me.
• 29:38
  SPEAKER_00: Get weird with me in my enjoyment of Hunter Harvey.
• 29:41
  SPEAKER_00: Get weird with me in like imagining Jacob Webb coming in, bases loaded, nobody out, wins Holland in.
• 29:49
  SPEAKER_00: This guy gets three straight infield pop-ups.
• 29:52
  SPEAKER_00: To sweep the Dodgers at home.
• 29:54
  SPEAKER_00: No, some crazy situation.
• 29:55
  SPEAKER_00: Show you how Toddy can't figure this guy out.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_00: Because we got a win coming in from 21 miles off the lake, pal.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: This guy's this guy's serving raviolis.
• 30:05
  SPEAKER_00: All right.
• 30:06
  SPEAKER_00: Have a seat.
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_00: That's an infield fly.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: That's good shit, man.
• 30:12
  SPEAKER_00: Being smarter than the other teams, finding these gems, or at least giving a shit now, because the interesting thing about following bullpen news is like come June and July and August and stuff, like these will be the guys that you are celebrating the most.
• 30:26
  SPEAKER_00: I love this guy.
• 30:27
  SPEAKER_00: I these will be the people you trust the most or you trust the least.
• 30:30
  SPEAKER_00: They will have the most impact over your emotions.
• 30:33
  SPEAKER_00: So there's something to be said about the fact that like what have the Cubs done this offseason for the fans?
• 30:38
  SPEAKER_00: They're shoring up your emotions.
• 30:40
  SPEAKER_00: They're literally giving us that crutch to lean on, which is dependable, veteran, journeyman, you know, second, third, fourth, fifth chance coming out of Tommy Hotovie's pitch lab.
• 30:53
  SPEAKER_00: Excuse me.
• 30:54
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds pretty good.
• 30:56
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds pretty good.
• 30:58
  SPEAKER_00: With that, a segment.
• 31:00
  SPEAKER_00: Not necessarily prepared.
• 31:02
  SPEAKER_00: If I'm being dead honest with you guys, I thought I'd have a little bit more time.
• 31:06
  SPEAKER_00: You know, running the errands.
• 31:08
  SPEAKER_00: We got it.
• 31:09
  SPEAKER_00: I said this would be at 45 minutes.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: I'm on track.
• 31:11
  SPEAKER_00: I'm pacing, baby.
• 31:14
  SPEAKER_00: I am pacing.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: I am basically.
• 31:17
  SPEAKER_00: Who am I?
• 31:19
  SPEAKER_00: I'm New York City Marathon.
• 31:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a Ken.
• 31:21
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a Kenyan.
• 31:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, who who does it who's a better runner?
• 31:24
  SPEAKER_00: Kenyan or Ethiopian?
• 31:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm from that country.
• 31:27
  SPEAKER_00: But I'm not an officially registered participant.
• 31:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm the pacer.
• 31:31
  SPEAKER_00: And I'm hauling ass, baby.
• 31:33
  SPEAKER_00: What do you think?
• 31:34
  SPEAKER_00: What's the pacer mile at?
• 31:38
  SPEAKER_00: 420, 420, 425?
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: Can't be more that cannot be more than 430.
• 31:46
  SPEAKER_00: And that's something I've wrestled with.
• 31:48
  SPEAKER_00: And I shouldn't say necessarily wrestled.
• 31:50
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe I've ran with it in my head.
• 31:52
  SPEAKER_00: Can I should I run a marathon?
• 31:53
  SPEAKER_00: Should I train?
• 31:54
  SPEAKER_00: And if you're gonna do that, do I start with a 5K?
• 31:57
  SPEAKER_00: 5K is weak.
• 31:59
  SPEAKER_00: Sign up for a 5k.
• 32:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know.
• 32:03
  SPEAKER_00: 10K is too much though.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_00: And you don't know that until somebody asks you, Can you do you want to run in this 10K?
• 32:09
  SPEAKER_00: You get roped into a 10K.
• 32:11
  SPEAKER_00: You don't know how hard a 10K is until you're running the 10K.
• 32:15
  SPEAKER_00: And you run past and they go, Congratulations, you're at mile marker 2.
• 32:19
  SPEAKER_00: And you're like, how many K's is that?
• 32:21
  SPEAKER_00: And they go, Not much.
• 32:24
  SPEAKER_00: Not much, buddy.
• 32:25
  SPEAKER_00: Barely three.
• 32:28
  SPEAKER_00: You know, you you are set you are 70% of the way there.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: Um so do I do a treat 10K?
• 32:37
  SPEAKER_00: Then you got then you do a half marathon.
• 32:39
  SPEAKER_00: See, I'd rather do a 10K than a half marathon.
• 32:43
  SPEAKER_00: And this is the stuff I'm thinking about off season mind, body, soul.
• 32:48
  SPEAKER_00: What do I want out of 2026?
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: What do I want from the Cubs in 26?
• 32:53
  SPEAKER_00: I put together a wish list for the Christmas episode, I think.
• 32:56
  SPEAKER_00: Just ran through that.
• 32:57
  SPEAKER_00: This is more just like here's a story, here's your 26 storyline.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: We'll just do the position players.
• 33:03
  SPEAKER_00: I have a chance to do pitchers, and if I have time, I'll do pitchers.
• 33:06
  SPEAKER_00: But your storylines, and this is just a general way to organize and think about the different guys on the team, obviously, you know.
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_00: And I think I've read somewhere, maybe conversation sticking point.
• 33:19
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe I heard somebody talk about this before, but just baseball players, like soup, you know, like superheroes that get their different powers and all that stuff.
• 33:27
  SPEAKER_00: You know, however, it helps you remember what makes these guys different because it everybody, you know, they're I should say they're all different.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: You know, some of these motherfuckers are pretty cookie cutter same, but for the most part, there's different things that are appealing from each player.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: So we'll just start, we'll go to first base.
• 33:47
  SPEAKER_00: I suppose is the easiest is um, you know, Michael Bush in 26 will have the opportunity to hit left-handed pitching.
• 33:53
  SPEAKER_00: This is a huge make or break thing for like his, I suppose, legacy as a baseball player.
• 33:58
  SPEAKER_00: Is he a platoon guy?
• 34:00
  SPEAKER_00: I kind of get annoyed when I see everybody talk about like, well, Michael Bush had a 140 weighted run created plus.
• 34:04
  SPEAKER_00: Last year, that was all against almost entirely against right-handed pitching, particularly the second half.
• 34:11
  SPEAKER_00: He almost saw no lefties.
• 34:13
  SPEAKER_00: And the second half had kind of lost faith and confidence, and it kind of became an issue for us with respect to playing Justin Turner more than we'd like when you're trying to get hot.
• 34:23
  SPEAKER_00: And it'd be nice if you're corner infielder, the same guy we're gonna walk around and go 140 weighted run created plus, one of the best first baseman baseball, only played against right-handed hitting.
• 34:34
  SPEAKER_00: So now that the announcement's made, now that the reserve spot is it seems like would be Tyler Austin's spot to lose going into spring training, whose guy's only getting$1 million.
• 34:44
  SPEAKER_00: So the Cubs aren't too heavily invested in Michael Bush hitting lefties, it's it seems like that's his runway.
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: So for 26, like if Michael Bush is average to marginally below average, like he can even be like slightly below average against lefties, like not too below, but like just be average-ish.
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_00: Um, you know, then like we're taking huge steps forward.
• 35:08
  SPEAKER_00: We're taking monster steps forward in the entire way the roster is put together and plate appearances and lineup construction.
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, second thing, obviously, Nico Horner.
• 35:17
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to see him hit for some power.
• 35:19
  SPEAKER_00: Because if he's not gonna hit for power, then I have to use the R-word regress.
• 35:23
  SPEAKER_00: Because I don't see a world where you can maintain such a low strikeout rate without being a threat to hit the ball out of the ballpark.
• 35:30
  SPEAKER_00: Like the pitchers will adjust.
• 35:32
  SPEAKER_00: I know the pitchers of modern game are more I would say like the word I want to say is pussy, but that that's an unfair categorization.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think they're just as strategic.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_00: You know, like they they're they're trying to just like overwhelm you with my breaking ball, my f they're not necessarily matching up as in decades past years before, historically speaking, how has the game changed?
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_00: Modern baseball, not necessarily matchup specific.
• 36:01
  SPEAKER_00: What does the hitter do well?
• 36:02
  SPEAKER_00: Now I'm gonna try and beat him with that.
• 36:04
  SPEAKER_00: It's more I am nasty, so it doesn't matter what you're really good at, and that's kind of where pitching has evolved, which is a completely different conversation.
• 36:13
  SPEAKER_00: But if under this mindset we apply Nico Horner's game to you know where pitching's evolved, he's been able to have a lot of success because people aren't trying to just try to overpower him, and he's like, fine, I'm right center, baby, all day.
• 36:30
  SPEAKER_00: I I am quick enough to get to that.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_00: I'm quick enough to get to that.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_00: So now the ball will come back to pitchers and there will be a chance to shift or be strategic against Nico Horner, I would say, based on how good he's been the last couple seasons.
• 36:45
  SPEAKER_00: I would imagine at some point the league makes an adjustment to Nico.
• 36:48
  SPEAKER_00: That's where the big R word comes in.
• 36:50
  SPEAKER_00: So to beat that, I would like to see Nico this offseason a little power, just look a little power adjustment here.
• 36:56
  SPEAKER_00: Is it getting the heel down sooner?
• 36:58
  SPEAKER_00: Is it getting the heel up sooner?
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_00: Is it you know what is it?
• 37:01
  SPEAKER_00: Is it hips?
• 37:02
  SPEAKER_00: Is it shoulders?
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_00: Like I love this stuff.
• 37:04
  SPEAKER_00: Where's that torque?
• 37:05
  SPEAKER_00: You know, obliques.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just saying muscle groups now.
• 37:08
  SPEAKER_00: Hammies.
• 37:09
  SPEAKER_00: Hammies.
• 37:11
  SPEAKER_00: So can we get a little power out of Nico Order?
• 37:15
  SPEAKER_00: Dansby Swanson, Schwanshin, moving over to short.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: Um, Dansby Swanson, I'd like to see hit 260 over 260.
• 37:24
  SPEAKER_00: I don't like seeing 240.
• 37:26
  SPEAKER_00: I don't like seeing 244, 246, 251.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_00: I want to see 260 plus.
• 37:31
  SPEAKER_00: If you see a 260 next to Dansby, that ain't average.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 37:34
  SPEAKER_00: It's simple as that.
• 37:35
  SPEAKER_00: That guy's a simple ball player, so we're gonna keep it simple.
• 37:39
  SPEAKER_00: 260 next to Dansby Swanson's name.
• 37:41
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's five and a half, six wins above replacement.
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_00: That's as simple as that.
• 37:47
  SPEAKER_00: Matt Shaw, you know, uh just like I we talk, I there's a lot to say about Matt Shaw.
• 37:55
  SPEAKER_00: I just play some ball, my friend.
• 37:56
  SPEAKER_00: Be a good second.
• 37:58
  SPEAKER_00: The the reason I have a hard time talking about Matt Shaw is because it's honestly it's a little sensitive the offseason to go do the I talked a little bit about this, to go do the turning point USA conference.
• 38:10
  SPEAKER_00: Just incenses people in the Cubs fan base.
• 38:15
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not a part of that group that is incensed.
• 38:18
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a little like, come on, I don't know if this you should this is I wouldn't recommend it.
• 38:24
  SPEAKER_00: Um it doesn't personally offend me because it's his right, I suppose, like I shouldn't say I suppose it is his right.
• 38:29
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's his right to do something that is gonna piss off like millions of people.
• 38:35
  SPEAKER_00: Um, and then I just know I am like annoyed to know matter-of-factly that if Matt Shaw starts the season next year, the way he started this past season, that the narrative will be like, get this motherfucker out of here.
• 38:48
  SPEAKER_00: Like I shouldn't say the narrative, people a lot of people listen to this.
• 38:52
  SPEAKER_00: And I wouldn't put anybody who wants to get mad and be mad, just whatever, go be mad.
• 38:56
  SPEAKER_00: Try and be mad alone.
• 38:57
  SPEAKER_00: But you know, as far as it comes talking about the player, this is what bothers me is because I love his game.
• 39:03
  SPEAKER_00: I think he's one of my I think he's one of the most complete all-around going into 26.
• 39:07
  SPEAKER_00: This is a guy I'm like 30 doubles.
• 39:09
  SPEAKER_00: I think I think I think you can say confidently 25 doubles, 25 homers for Matt Shaw.
• 39:15
  SPEAKER_00: Like, like it while giving you goal glove caliber third base play, stealing 25 packs.
• 39:23
  SPEAKER_00: I think check all those boxes in a second year.
• 39:25
  SPEAKER_00: And I guess then this is my way of working through this exercise of like I I hate the narrative that's being attached to my or that he's he's self-inflicting on himself, that he's he's enabling people to criticize himself personally and not the ball player.
• 39:39
  SPEAKER_00: And for right or wrong reasons, or however people agree about like the fact that this is a talking point about Matt John when he's such a complete ball player, it kind of grinds my gears because like complete players like him don't come around very often.
• 39:50
  SPEAKER_00: I would rather channel all of my energy into him being a gap to gap, just lethal gold glove um, you know, mainstay in the lineup and then.
• 40:00
  SPEAKER_00: That's where I would like to see the conversation with Matt Shaw.
• 40:02
  SPEAKER_00: So I suppose this is the long-winded runaround fucking circle jerk way of me saying that's Matt Shaw's 2026 to me.
• 40:09
  SPEAKER_00: Can his play put him in a category where it just kind of like nobody cares he did the Charlie Kirk turning point USA thing?
• 40:16
  SPEAKER_00: And in in saying this, I'm not demeaning people who value that.
• 40:20
  SPEAKER_00: I'm a practicing Catholic.
• 40:22
  SPEAKER_00: I agree with a lot of stuff.
• 40:24
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not trying, I'm just trying to say it's like we're this baseball, baby.
• 40:27
  SPEAKER_00: It's baseball.
• 40:28
  SPEAKER_00: We're just we're talking baseball.
• 40:30
  SPEAKER_00: We're playing baseball.
• 40:31
  SPEAKER_00: This is Chicago Cubs.
• 40:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like, don't really give a like really, don't really give a fuck.
• 40:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like, just don't.
• 40:37
  SPEAKER_00: Like the reason this is so great is because it takes me away from all the other stuff that blows.
• 40:42
  SPEAKER_00: So now that we're gonna go into the thing that's so great, don't make me start talking about the stuff that blows because we're here to forget about like stuff.
• 40:49
  SPEAKER_00: I don't care.
• 40:50
  SPEAKER_00: I don't care.
• 40:52
  SPEAKER_00: Just just went through full holiday season.
• 40:54
  SPEAKER_00: You're sitting at that, you're just like wait, you're just like waiting for someone to drop a bomb at the you're just waiting.
• 40:59
  SPEAKER_00: Someone say it.
• 41:00
  SPEAKER_00: Who's gonna say it?
• 41:02
  SPEAKER_00: Uncle Gary.
• 41:03
  SPEAKER_00: No, who's gonna say it?
• 41:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's gonna get everybody to just kind of like look around and be like, did he just fucking say that?
• 41:08
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's the climate we're in, and the fact that we're even remotely thinking about our like virgin third baseman, you know.
• 41:17
  SPEAKER_00: What a nice kid.
• 41:19
  SPEAKER_00: Left field, Ian hap, like it's just a just a fan base divided.
• 41:23
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think anybody's lukewarm on Ian Hap.
• 41:25
  SPEAKER_00: I think you either like respect the shit out of the fact this will be his what 10th season with the Cubs, or you just hate his guts for being so inconsistent.
• 41:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know, Pete Crow Armstrong, we don't like red or black, which one is it?
• 41:39
  SPEAKER_00: Which which what are we dealing with?
• 41:42
  SPEAKER_00: Who are you?
• 41:43
  SPEAKER_00: Who are you?
• 41:46
  SPEAKER_00: That should be his walkout song.
• 41:49
  SPEAKER_00: Who are you by the who?
• 41:50
  SPEAKER_00: Pete Crow Armstrong, who are you?
• 41:52
  SPEAKER_00: Because I want to know, I think you're the best player I've ever seen in my life at times, and I think that's a guy that you ultimately settle in.
• 42:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know, and then right field like Say Suzuki, can you can he stay healthy?
• 42:06
  SPEAKER_00: Can right with the right field mix should basically just be the Owen Casey Say Suzuki mix with the Moises by Astero's bat and who loses out in that mix.
• 42:14
  SPEAKER_00: So that's positionally, you know, catcher Zemaia, whatever, you're awesome.
• 42:19
  SPEAKER_00: Carson Kelly, probably not going to be nearly as good as he was last year.
• 42:22
  SPEAKER_00: Same time, what if he was?
• 42:25
  SPEAKER_00: You know, what if he was?
• 42:27
  SPEAKER_00: Look at our catching group as a strength.
• 42:29
  SPEAKER_00: That would be a good way to say it.
• 42:30
  SPEAKER_00: Or we have a we have a clear strength out of the out of out of the catching position.
• 42:35
  SPEAKER_00: Right field's kind of just confusing.
• 42:37
  SPEAKER_00: I think I've dressed this up appropriately offseason, and I'll have an eye mostly on this in spring training.
• 42:43
  SPEAKER_00: The number one thing I'm interested in is just this menace a toit we have around the two positions of DH uh in right field, and having Biasteros, say Suzuki, and Owen Casey on paper right now.
• 42:55
  SPEAKER_00: Now, this could change trades, etc., right?
• 42:58
  SPEAKER_00: But just as it stands, right field, very interesting to me 26.
• 43:01
  SPEAKER_00: Okay, say Suzuki physically can't play 162 in right field.
• 43:05
  SPEAKER_00: Moises Biasteros physically can't play one game in right field.
• 43:10
  SPEAKER_00: So Owen Casey's gonna have to play.
• 43:13
  SPEAKER_00: Now, does that mean he only sees right-handed pitching?
• 43:15
  SPEAKER_00: Well, then he's gonna be a rookie.
• 43:16
  SPEAKER_00: You're gonna platoon a rookie.
• 43:18
  SPEAKER_00: That's crazy.
• 43:20
  SPEAKER_00: So between the two positions, there's about 1,300 plate appearances to go around for the season.
• 43:26
  SPEAKER_00: That would be 433 per guy.
• 43:31
  SPEAKER_00: I'd probably like to see Say Suzuki make 600 plate appearances between DH and right field if he's healthy.
• 43:39
  SPEAKER_00: So now what does that take the number down?
• 43:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's 350 each to Owen Casey and Moises Biasteros.
• 43:44
  SPEAKER_00: I'd like to see Biasteros get in the 450 range.
• 43:47
  SPEAKER_00: So now it just takes the number down and looking at Owen Casey and going, can he be successful this year with 250 or 300 plate appearances?
• 43:54
  SPEAKER_00: And if you followed me through the numbers in that exercise, congratulations.
• 43:57
  SPEAKER_00: You're a lunatic.
• 43:59
  SPEAKER_00: You're a psychopath.
• 44:01
  SPEAKER_00: That's where I stand on right field.
• 44:02
  SPEAKER_00: Pitching staff, we've said this before, I'll say it again.
• 44:05
  SPEAKER_00: Six man rotation.
• 44:06
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I don't want to beat, I don't want to beat that horse too hard here, but like I would be interested in hearing more discourse.
• 44:12
  SPEAKER_00: I talked to a couple people last week about this.
• 44:14
  SPEAKER_00: I'm just interested.
• 44:15
  SPEAKER_00: And then you know what else I'm interested in is what's a better place to have interesting conversations?
• 44:20
  SPEAKER_00: Should I be on a message board?
• 44:22
  SPEAKER_00: Should we start a message board?
• 44:23
  SPEAKER_00: Should is there a disc what is that?
• 44:25
  SPEAKER_00: Discord?
• 44:27
  SPEAKER_00: Is there a server, a Ukrainian server that I need to be hosting something on for more thoughtful conversations or group chat?
• 44:36
  SPEAKER_00: I'll put a group chat together.
• 44:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna silence it as soon as I start it.
• 44:41
  SPEAKER_00: But these are the these are the questions that I have just as I'm talking through six-man rotation with the Chicago Cubs.
• 44:47
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds great.
• 44:48
  SPEAKER_00: Sounds great.
• 44:50
  SPEAKER_00: Bob.
• 44:53
  SPEAKER_00: You know, that's a quote.
• 44:55
  SPEAKER_00: That's an old movie quote.
• 44:57
  SPEAKER_00: Justin Steele coming back from injury.
• 44:59
  SPEAKER_00: A lot of reasons to be optimistic.
• 45:02
  SPEAKER_00: What do we do with the last, let's say there's 20 to 25 million dollars to spend without trading Nico Horner?
• 45:07
  SPEAKER_00: If you trade Nico Horner, then you have 40 million to spend.
• 45:09
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think we should trade Nico Horner.
• 45:11
  SPEAKER_00: We have about 20, 25 million to spend.
• 45:14
  SPEAKER_00: Does it go to another starting pitcher?
• 45:16
  SPEAKER_00: Do we save it for a trade deadline?
• 45:18
  SPEAKER_00: And if we started the season today, right now, would you be satisfied with what we have?
• 45:23
  SPEAKER_00: Is that is that enough to go win the NL Central?
• 45:27
  SPEAKER_00: I argue yes.
• 45:28
  SPEAKER_00: I argue strongly, yes, that I think this is a very good team.
• 45:33
  SPEAKER_00: It is worse without a healthy Kyle Tucker.
• 45:39
  SPEAKER_00: I have to admit that.
• 45:41
  SPEAKER_00: But I do think our run prevention or defense is going to be improved next year.
• 45:44
  SPEAKER_00: I do think the pitching staff is going to be improved.
• 45:47
  SPEAKER_00: There's a couple other things I had here on the list.
• 45:50
  SPEAKER_00: You know, wrapping this baby up.
• 45:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is the last Monday morning Cub show of 2025.
• 45:56
  SPEAKER_00: I'll be back next Monday, the first Monday at 26.
• 46:00
  SPEAKER_00: You know, it's been an interesting year.
• 46:05
  SPEAKER_00: Uh primarily because of this show.
• 46:09
  SPEAKER_00: I want to say thanks to the maniacs for tuning in and for giving this community and putting some life into the Chicago Cubs 25 season.
• 46:16
  SPEAKER_00: Blast doing it with Mahoney, blast doing the lineup reviews, getting the word out about Stirk Family Farms, which, by the way, promo code 20% off MMCS at StirkFamilyFarms.com, which is my wife's skincare company that I use my content and social media channels to endorse now.
• 46:32
  SPEAKER_00: All my we're owned by Sturk Family Farms, baby.
• 46:35
  SPEAKER_00: Wagyu beef tallow eye cream, tallow skincare products.
• 46:39
  SPEAKER_00: It's that time of the year.
• 46:40
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe you bombed on mom for Christmas or your girlfriend or something.
• 46:43
  SPEAKER_00: We also do online gift cards, which is just you get a virtual gift card, just give that to a loved one.
• 46:49
  SPEAKER_00: 20% off.
• 46:50
  SPEAKER_00: Promo code MMCS.
• 46:52
  SPEAKER_00: Get something for your hands, face, lips, eyes, your dog.
• 46:56
  SPEAKER_00: We got paw cream for dogs that have like woo uh sh because the salt being out and all stuff dries up, cracks the paws.
• 47:04
  SPEAKER_00: Uh, you know, so we got paw cream for that.
• 47:06
  SPEAKER_00: We got a baby bomb.
• 47:07
  SPEAKER_00: We got a ton of stuff, guys.
• 47:08
  SPEAKER_00: Sturkfamilyfarms.com.
• 47:10
  SPEAKER_00: And that's a good reflection and ending point for the show.
• 47:13
  SPEAKER_00: Just again to say I mean, I hate being sappy and sentimental, but like I, you know, you say thank you, I don't I didn't I don't like saying stuff that I can't I can't really like you don't really know how much I mean it, right?
• 47:27
  SPEAKER_00: We're not like sitting next to each other at a bar or at a Cubs game or something.
• 47:31
  SPEAKER_00: You're not looking me in the eyes right now.
• 47:32
  SPEAKER_00: You don't it's it's a little bit difficult because I can't appropriately uh you know say thank you enough for what has been like a fucking crazy year, an awesome year.
• 47:47
  SPEAKER_00: The show's rolling, the shows during the playoffs exploded.
• 47:51
  SPEAKER_00: I cannot tell you guys enough how much people like the to see the show to do it each week to build a relationship.
• 47:56
  SPEAKER_00: Obviously, Mahoney and I are tremendous friends outside of programming.
• 48:01
  SPEAKER_00: Um to build it up with Mahoney and then to go into the playoff run and to be like, fuck it, I'll just cut a show before and after each game.
• 48:09
  SPEAKER_00: And then to see the response from you guys on that, to see the way the internet reacted to that was sick.
• 48:16
  SPEAKER_00: That was awesome.
• 48:17
  SPEAKER_00: That's like why you go out and you do the show.
• 48:20
  SPEAKER_00: So if I had to like put what's what my favorite moment of 2025 um would be like get the pregame show for game five of the NLDS Brewers, and then knowing that so much I mean just the show had I can't even if I showed you guys the graph, you wouldn't believe it of how many more people had showed up along the way.
• 48:42
  SPEAKER_00: So it's that's just a you know, and I'm stumbling over my way.
• 48:46
  SPEAKER_00: It's much easier for me to talk about relief pitching mix than it is for me to talk about like emotional stuff publicly or anything.
• 48:52
  SPEAKER_00: Just say thank you for showing up to the show and being a part of the Monday morning cup show community.
• 48:57
  SPEAKER_00: As far as announcements for 26 are concerned, we're not going anywhere for Mondays.
• 49:02
  SPEAKER_00: I'm considering adding a second show on Fridays that would be solo 30 minutes or guest or pregame shows or post-game shows.
• 49:17
  SPEAKER_00: Um I want to add another layer.
• 49:19
  SPEAKER_00: So the Monday morning cub show, this ain't going anywhere, but I want another layer throughout the week.
• 49:25
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that's video related.
• 49:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's where my head's at.
• 49:28
  SPEAKER_00: I'm doing some thinking.
• 49:29
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have a suggestion box.
• 49:30
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not hard to find, though.
• 49:31
  SPEAKER_00: So if you have a good idea or any idea, you know, is that desperate enough?
• 49:38
  SPEAKER_00: I'm like sitting here drawing up these, and I don't not one is jumping off the page to me.
• 49:42
  SPEAKER_00: Because I've done Carl Cass.
• 49:44
  SPEAKER_00: I do like lineup previews as a preview product, and I don't I think a show, I think a pregame show would compete with that.
• 49:51
  SPEAKER_00: But I do like a morning show that is like recap.
• 49:55
  SPEAKER_00: You know, how many people would watch a game and listen to a recap show at night?
• 49:58
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 49:59
  SPEAKER_00: And these are the questions we're trying to solve.
• 50:01
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody gives a fuck, though.
• 50:02
  SPEAKER_00: This is a Monday morning cup show.
• 50:03
  SPEAKER_00: The only thing that matters, we win 90 plus games next year.
• 50:06
  SPEAKER_00: We make it to the playoffs, we're competitive.
• 50:09
  SPEAKER_00: If we have injuries, we battle through them, right?
• 50:12
  SPEAKER_00: We want consistency across the starting pitch.
• 50:14
  SPEAKER_00: There's a whole bunch of shit that has nothing to do, you know, with whatever the fuck I'm talking about.
• 50:20
  SPEAKER_00: Happy New Year's fellas.
• 50:23
  SPEAKER_00: I mean it.
• 50:24
  SPEAKER_00: Happy New Year's.
• 50:25
  SPEAKER_00: Thank you guys for tuning in, and we will be back next Monday uh with Mahoney for a fully loaded Monday morning Cub show.
• 50:32
  SPEAKER_00: Until then, go Cubs and God bless you.