Latest / Know Your Personnel Pod / 2026 NFL Predictions | The AFC South Is WAY Better Than Vegas Thinks 👀

Transcript

2026 NFL Predictions | The AFC South Is WAY Better Than Vegas Thinks 👀 · Know Your Personnel Pod

• Nathan Hawthorne: All right, training camp just started. It is time for us to break down division by division what we think each team is going to do. We're going to, again, we're going to go division by division. We're going to look at things from the lens of this is what Vegas says are going to win. And maybe we're on the same page as Vegas. Maybe we're not. But regardless, we're going to break it down and we are going to start with one of the less loved divisions in NFL football. We're going to start with the AFC South, the Indianapolis Colts. What do we got? Jarod McInroy: Indianapolis Colts. So they're over under right now. Seven and a half games. Well let's just let me just list off what everybody's at before we go team by team so then I can use that as some context. So Colts are supposed to be seven and a half games, Texans nine and a half, Jags eight and a half, Titans six and a half. So here's what I'm thinking when I hear those numbers is they think that they're basically all gonna split and then they're gonna just all do okay outside of division. So and when I say split I mean split in division games against each other. those numbers are not convincing that one they really know who's gonna win the division, but two who's gonna win outside of division. the Colts, seven and a half, th don't see winning that many games. That felt generous and it felt like, Hey, what if they catch fire again with now that Daniel Jones comes back? We don't know what's going on with this team. Sasgarner will be healthy, like the team that they have envisioned will be fully healthy. I have them under. I have finishing third. I'm I'm just I'm not fully convinced that they're gonna make that leap and maybe it's because I like two of the other teams better. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, they're gonna I think seven and a half games is perfect, and they put that hook out there, so you have to say eight games. They're not gonna win eight games this year, and it's no knock again on Shane Steichen, who I love, but he continues to try and take discount quarterbacks and make them into something they're not. Was Daniel Jones' run last year incredible, right? They were eight and two before he got injured, and then they lose two games with one of them coming out at halftime. He tears his Achilles. Now a big mobile quarterback who's not very accurate throwing the football is coming back to lead your team. That doesn't spell success for me. Does it spell success for you? Daniel Jones is a mobile quarterback. Jarod McInroy: I love calling him a mobile quarterback. I know, but like it's the worst type of mobility. He's scootin' but like Nathan Hawthorne: It's hard to unsee when he had that big breakaway with the Giants and he just fell. Jarod McInroy: Exactly. Nathan Hawthorne: But he's he is athletic in that way. And my concern is you've got Jonathan Taylor again. It's the last year of his contract. Your wide receiver one is Alec Pierce, whom you paid a lot of money to this year. Then you've got Josh Downs and who else? I just I don't think that there's enough offensive power firepower for them to be a consistent team this year. And it might be time, and I know Indianapolis fans, you don't want to hear this. It might be time to move on from Jonathan Taylor. He's going to be an unrestricted free agent in 2027. His salary cap is not going to be a big hit this year, right? It's going to be the most expensive of his contract, but in terms of trading him, you can probably get a second or third round pick for Jonathan Taylor, knowing that you have to pick up the contract, but don't let him walk out the door this year, knowing that he's not coming back. Jonathan Taylor's gonna take a moderately sized contract somewhere else. He's gonna go somewhere where he's gonna run over you for 9,000 yards next year. Just do the do the right thing and trade him away. Get him to a contender midway through the season and allow him to leave Indianapolis on a what do you call it? On a good note. Don't make him sit there and continue to suffer as one of the best running backs that we've seen over the last six years in the NFL. Jarod McInroy: You know, it would be a great place for Team who's pretty stacked, maybe just won a Super Bowl and would love to have another running back in the room. Nathan Hawthorne: Patriots? Jarod McInroy: Seattle. Seattle would be a great spot for man. I 'cause I was thinking about Fitz 'cause I I also had this th the same thought of like you hate seeing a running back's career just just wash away and I mean we thought we were gonna see it with Saquon before the big move happened. We didn't know how long Christian McCaffrey was gonna be stuck in Carolina. like it's it's their second spot. We'll be saying also we'll be having this entire conversation three years from now about Jeremiah love, but anyways. Nathan Hawthorne: Or B. John Robinson. Jarod McInroy: Probably both, yeah. but him and Seattle would be great. They got picks that they don't really need to use. so if we're looking for for spots, but yeah, they gotta dish him. It's this this is not the team. They they got a lot of work. They have a great foundation. I still really like their defense. the problem is that defense is going to age very quickly. It's gonna get very expensive because you're gonna have to start paying people. Do this now. Do this now. Rather than later move off a couple pieces, do a quick retool, find your quarterback for the future. You have a great foundation. You do. Your O line's not terrible. we again, you and I both like Shane Steiken, like he's a good coach. Do it now before you have to go into a full rebuild three years from now because you tried to force this thing. yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. Yeah. You missed on a big pick with Daniel Jones or sorry, not with Daniel Jones, with Anthony Richardson and that sucks. 'Cause you could have got your guy. And I can't remember who else was in that draft c class and who they could have made out with, but obviously Anthony Richardson proved to be a very unfortunate pick. But that's what happens in the NFL. But what you can't do is what the Cardinals or not sorry, not what the Cardinals did. what the Giants did with Daniel Jones. Is you you stick with him too long. And again, I I love you, Shane Steichen, but you gotta You gotta pay the premium for a high caliber quarterback. And another team I think that could trade for Jonathan Taylor, the Denver Broncos. I like their running back room. It's okay. But I also Jarod McInroy: Yeah. I think they like their yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: think the commanders, two two teams that I think like the top of their running back room, some young guys that have some potential. But if you slot Jonathan Taylor in there to be the lead back, take a lot, a lot of pressure off your off your quarterbacks. Jarod McInroy: Or maybe even the Cowboys. He's Nathan Hawthorne: But yeah, seven Jarod McInroy: kind of just a luxury piece at this point, man. Like that's that's how how you gotta think about those big names in bad spots, is he's like you said, he's gone. This is the cheapest he's ever gonna be, and you don't want him to hit free agency and and whiff on a chance at him. So yeah, we'll see. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. Yeah. Jarod McInroy: Yeah, anything else on the Colts or shall we move on to the other team that's on the bottom of the addition division? Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: Seven seven wins is the max. That's max. That's best case scenario. Yep, let's keep moving on. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Titans, six and a half. I have them under also. I thought that was a very generous seven games? Who who's putting the money on the over there? Nathan Hawthorne: It's the Robert Sala effect. I'm telling you. Jarod McInroy: A shot. Nathan Hawthorne: I'm telling you, he changes organizations. He does. You can't change Jarod McInroy: Yeah, the Jets are they're sick, bro. Nathan Hawthorne: Dog, he had a top five defense with the Jets. They were unbelievable when he was coaching the defense. But you can't, you can't wipe off the stink of the Jarod McInroy: my god. Nathan Hawthorne: Jets. He goes back to the 49ers and instantly makes a difference on that defense. They were injured all up and down the roster and still were able to have a successful season. Now here's the deal you've drafted Carnell Tate, who I think is going to be a superstar in this league for years to come. You snagged Wandell Robinson. You've still got Calvin Ridley. Tony Pollard has proven to be a strong weapon. You've still got Tajay Spears, a decent guy, but a rotational back. Cam Ward, if he has any sort of development with Brian Dayball, this offense could be really good. An offense that you don't want to play, especially second half of the year. Again, this is assuming Cam Ward takes a leap. But you've got elite pass catchers, you've got a solid run game, and you've got a head coach that wants everybody to play physical. Now, the problem is I don't think that their roster top to bottom is very good. They just don't have enough guys, especially on the defensive end. Jeffrey Simmons is getting a little bit old, and I can't name anybody on their back end. No disrespect. And people love to comment, well, if you can't name anybody, you're not doing your research, KYP, blah, blah, blah. I can you? If you're not a Titans fan, Legarius Sneed said, I'm out. Jarod McInroy: No. Nope. Nathan Hawthorne: They paid him a bag. He said, I'm out. I'm going back to Kansas City. So there is no help on that back end. There's going to be so much pressure on that passing game. Like they're just not again, they just don't have enough quality yet. so they'll be an interesting team. They'll be a feisty team, but I don't think that makes them a good team. Jarod McInroy: I don't even I think you're giving them way too much credit. I think I think we'll Nathan Hawthorne: How? Jarod McInroy: see. Again, I think we'll see. once once the season plays out a bit. I j I don't think they're that good. I just don't think they have as much talent as you're alluding to. I think they have a few really talented pieces. Like like you said, I Nathan Hawthorne: Exactly. Jarod McInroy: I believe in Cam Ward. I I think Cam Ward is well, here's the problem is he you have to have a really good coach when you're a young quarterback. That's very important. We've seen it proven time and time and time again. a a a bad coach can really, really stunt your growth. and maybe it's another stop for him. But if we're just talking ability, talent, mindset, everything, I'm all in on Cam Ward. Carnell Tate, same thing. G he's gonna be awesome in this league. I just w what what really promising big names do they have outside of those two people that you really love? that you see competing that you see in the dog days, in those in the trenches, in the really tough games when you're, you know, in September against Houston. Who who outside of those two names? Nathan Hawthorne: I exactly. They've got talent. They're gonna be feisty, but they're not gonna be a very good football team. Y you don't think Tony Pollard's talented? Jarod McInroy: They don't have talent. That's what I'm saying is they don't have any talent. I I think they got a couple guys. He's he's good. He's good not great. That's that's all I got for ya. Nathan Hawthorne: Exactly. He's good not great. But when you pair him with an electric guy like Cam Ward who can cover over a multitude of sins just by his ability, you're finally getting a stable offense. Not that's not Brian Callahan. Jarod McInroy: Look, maybe I'll maybe I'll eat my words. Nathan Hawthorne: Again, I'm not saying they're winning ten games. Six games six six Jarod McInroy: No, I I hear you. Nathan Hawthorne: games is wow. I'm stoked to find Robert Salah. But I'm saying don't be Jarod McInroy: I hear you. Nathan Hawthorne: surprised if they're scaring teams. Jarod McInroy: Yeah, no, I again you you're totally right. Nathan Hawthorne: You're not gonna show up to you don't you don't wanna go to Tennessee, you don't wanna go to Nashville and have to deal with them because they're gonna be a hard nosed team coached by Jarod McInroy: I think you do want to go to Nashville. I think that's that's a great place when you just when you just fought against, you know, the Patriots or the Broncos. You just played someone the week before. I'm stoked to go to Nashville. I'd love. I'd love to go to Nashville and and have a free win. Yes, I do. I really do. Nathan Hawthorne: You think you got the week off in Nashville? With all right. That's fine. Okay, we just we know this, we see Robert Sala differently, and that's okay. Jarod McInroy: No, he's fine. Like he's a good coach for sure, and I'm not saying he's not. I'm just saying like there's only so much he he's not it he doesn't have pads on. He's doing nothing on that field and you and you can't name a y Nathan Hawthorne: Dude might as well have pads on. That man's a physical presence. Jarod McInroy: you can't name a guy on that defense, so that's all I'm saying. We'll move on from the bad teams. Yeah. I have them finishing fourth, by the way. Nathan Hawthorne: Jermaine Johnson they picked up. They still got Solomon Thomas. Solomon Thomas he brought with him essentially from the Jets. Yeah, it's probably true. If if things go No. Jarod McInroy: But I didn't know if we were framing this as who we how we think they'll finish in their their division this year too. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, I think I think if it depends on how quickly the Colts decide to really, really move on from things. Cause the Colts I think could make a run for the bottom of that division if they decide that things aren't gonna work this year. Jarod McInroy: Vegas thinks they're a full game above Nathan Hawthorne: I mean, quarterback Jarod McInroy: Convincingly. Nathan Hawthorne: quarterback plays worth a full game. You know, if Daniel Jones has proven that he can't get it done, maybe he starts having knickknack injuries following the Achilles injury, like, you know, who even says he's gonna be fully healthy for week one? So Jarod McInroy: Okay, now let's talk about the disrespect here. Th all of these teams are only one game apart. So now we jump up to the Jags at eight and a half games? Nathan Hawthorne: They think these dudes suck? That's insane to me. Jarod McInroy: Like damn, what w what are we doing? Nathan Hawthorne: I have no idea. I think this is a minimum like when I say minimum, I mean so minimum eleven win team. I think they're gonna win twelve games. Thirteen was a lot last year. I think they escaped with a couple lucky ones, a couple second half comebacks, but goodness gracious, there is n i in no way do they would not win at least eleven games. Jarod McInroy: They only need to win nine to get the over though. That's that's the crazier part. Like what are we talking about here? Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, I'm I'm sl I'm s I'm slam I'm slamming the over button right now. I'm slamming Jarod McInroy: In the Nathan Hawthorne: it with all the money I got. Jarod McInroy: and again we're gonna start with the Jags, but then we talk about Houston twelve wins last year. They're n like nine and a half. Wha w you think they're Nathan Hawthorne: The Jaguars have the eleventh easiest schedule. Okay, I'm looking at their out of conference schedules. So you're gonna have to deal with Denver. You don't wanna deal with Denver. Jarod McInroy: Okay. Nathan Hawthorne: That's early in the season, but you have Cleveland, Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Houston. Like your toughest games are gonna be against Houston and Baltimore. And outside of that, then you got Chicago, got Dallas and Washington late, but like nothing is that terrifying. I but nothing terrifying. Jarod McInroy: Some pretty tough games. No no not but th th that's the thing is no no. Nathan Hawthorne: They're wit they're winnable games with the talent that they have on their team. Jarod McInroy: But that's the thing is like I I don't think people view the Jags the same way that you and I view the Jags. I don't think they think of them as a top team. When you're a top team, it doesn't matter what your roster is. It or Nathan Hawthorne: It's har it's hard not to think of him. Yeah. Jarod McInroy: it doesn't matter what your schedule is, I mean. it doesn't matter if you you gotta go on the road and win a game against Philly. If you got like it whatever your route is, you believe you can win week in, week out, and they have the team to do it. Again. They won thirteen games last year. Who cares if the point is, is did you get the win? It doesn't matter in what way you get those wins, it's did you get the win? They got thirteen of them things. Okay. yeah. Eight and a half is Nathan Hawthorne: It's a what have you won for me lately, League? No, but let's be let's be for real. There Jarod McInroy: disgusting. And may they the only thing they did bad in the offseason was they had a pretty bad draft. It wasn't great. But also They weren't really relying on that draft to really take them to the next level. Sure, a a good draft will always help, but that wasn't the point. The point was we have a year of this tandem of Trevor Lawrence and Liam Cohen under our belt. Now let's kick things off in year two. Let's make sure we still have the weapons. Let's make sure we keep doing the right things on the defensive side of the ball, et cetera. And I think they're they've they're doing that. But I don't know. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, Bishal Tutin's gonna be the clear lead back. I'm not sure how great he is. A couple of flashes last year when Travis Etienne was injured. So we'll we'll get to see him in a you know a full force front here. I can't I think Chris Rodriguez Jr. or something like that is their is their backup. So run game might be a little weak, but you've got Brian Thomas Jr. hopefully is healthy this year and a little bit more mentally in the game. You've got Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers. I think that's a great wide receiving core. Jarod McInroy: And Travis Hunter. Nathan Hawthorne: Travis Hunter It's All indications are kind of seeming he's going to be a little bit more on the defensive side of the football this year. So I'm not discounting him, but he is still going to be a weapon for you. But still, just those three that I mentioned first before Travis Hunter, that's one of the better wide receiving cores and probably the best wide receiving core in the division, depending on how you rate the health of both Nico Collins and Tank Dell week to week, right? You've got a three headed spear on defense of Josh Hines Allen. You got Trayvon Walker and Aluakan, a linebacker. That's a three headed spear. Spirit like you don't want to have to deal with that week in and week out. Like these guys, like this is a good Jacksonville team. It's a really good Jarod McInroy: Mm-hmm. Nathan Hawthorne: Jacksonville team. I don't think last year was a fluke. I think Liam Cohen has to be start like people have to start putting him in the category of one of the best coaches in the NFL, if not one of the best young coaches. Maybe we can stop there at one of the best young coaches at the NFL, but we have to start thinking about him that way. He made Baker Mayfield better. Like people thought that it was Brian Callahan, so he got the job. In my goodness, Carolina? No, Tennessee. Jarod McInroy: Tennessee. Nathan Hawthorne: No, who was it that went to Tennessee though? Not Callahan. Dave Canales. And I remember Jarod McInroy: Yes. Nathan Hawthorne: this distinctly when I was doing strong opinion sports. Someone said, actually, yeah, Jarod McInroy: And that was Carolina. Nathan Hawthorne: and they actually said, Dave Canales was holding this team back. Liam Cohen's gonna be better. And the dude was right. I don't know what inside rope this guy had to knowing who Liam Cohen was, but he called his shot and was correct. Listen, again, I gotta hop off here. Liam Cohen's the guy. This Jacksonville team is gonna be good for a number of years. Trevor Lawrence, Let's see. I've been a Trevor Lawrence defender just like I've been a Justin Herbert defender. Let's see. Let's see what you got. Jarod McInroy: Yeah. And the other thing is is I've def said this before too. If you don't think it's gonna work, I think Liam Cohen will be very vocal at this point. I feel as though Liam Cohen might be a better asset to the franchise than Trevor Lawrence at this point. So that means if you need to move off him sooner than later, and that that might be a hot take. If you need to move off him sooner than later to get a young quarterback and go get your guy. in Liam Cohen's hands with some time to spare. let's do that before, you know, all the crap hits the fan and all the fans call for Liam Cohen's head, because we know how they turn on head coaches in this league far quicker than they turn on quarterbacks. So we'll see. I don't know. I I hope it works out. I hope this is the place where it works for Trevor Lawrence. But we've talked about him working in other locations for sure. I don't know. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah, buddy, that's getting clipped. That's getting clipped and put out there. Jarod McInroy: It might be. Hey put this all put this in there as well. if he does go anywhere, I'd love to see him as Matt Stafford's replacement. Nathan Hawthorne: Ooooo spicy. How many picks do you have to give up for that? Jarod McInroy: Yeah, that'd be a great spot for him. bro. I I Nathan Hawthorne: Or is it a free agency thing? Jarod McInroy: I d do the Rams even have picks at this point? I don't think they got much to work with. They would really have to wheel and deal something, but yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: I don't know. I don't know what they I don't know what they have to spare. I don't know what they have to spare. They'd find a way. Aaron Donald sounds like he's coming back. I anyways. We don't we're not talking about the Rams today. But let's talk about the obvious I think the obvious top of the A or of the AFC South, and that's the Houston Texans. Fuck Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Nathan Hawthorne: nine and a half wins. Jarod McInroy: That's so disrespectful. Like it's actually disgusting. They're a twelve win team last year, Nathan Hawthorne: This team is scam is scary. This team is legitimately scary. Jarod McInroy: and they they're better now. They are better now. Now, that was a very concerning video we saw of CJ Stroud. I think he's just a goofy guy. I the outfit, the way he's walking. I don't know if he's been training too hard or what. I think he might just be a goofy guy outside of football. Nathan Hawthorne: Yeah. Jarod McInroy: so we won't read into that too much. But looking at this roster, man, nobody wants to play that defense. Nathan Hawthorne: No. Jarod McInroy: Nob th I think they've solidified themselves as the top defense and they haven't even played a game yet. Nathan Hawthorne: They're unbelievable. We already talked about it. They've got Will Anderson Jr., they've got Daniil Hunter. They've still got Al Shayer at at linebacker. They drafted my goodness, Kaden McDonald. One of the great Jarod McInroy: Uh-huh. Nathan Hawthorne: he's gonna be a great defensive tackle for him, kinda clogging up the middle. And then on top of that, you've got Tooto at safety slash, you know, kind of lineback like Jarod McInroy: Stingly. Nathan Hawthorne: The Derek Stingley at corner. I mean, these guys, and not only are they great talents, but they play physical and they play together. D'Amico Ryans is one of the best coaches in football. Hands Jarod McInroy: Yes. Nathan Hawthorne: down, one of the best coaches in football, and especially on his side of the ball. The offense does worry me with CJ Stroud. But last year, even with CJ Stroud being in and out due to injury, whether it was the concussion or the ankle, again, you still won 12 games because the defense was that good. So if you get CJ Stroud to get his head on straight, and what I love this year from CJ Stroud, the whole offseason, I didn't see any podcast clips. I didn't see him raiding other players in the league. It was pretty quiet from him. And that's what I wanted to see. A little haircut, a little quiet off season, putting the work in, coming out a little cheesy because he wasn't trying to be all cool. I love what I saw from CJ Stroud with that walk in. I don't know if love's the right word, but it tells me that he hasn't been locked in on anything other than football. Jarod McInroy: Yeah, a hundred percent. He's locked in. He's ready to go. He he's got a lot to prove. This is the time. Nathan Hawthorne: And I love that. I love because he no he knows he's gotta prove it. He knows he's gotta prove it. So is this is this a thirteen win team? Jarod McInroy: They might be. They're certainly more than nine and a half. They're they're ten, they're ten or more. Let's just put it that Nathan Hawthorne: Okay. And also Jarod McInroy: way. Nathan Hawthorne: their their offense we didn't even talk about. Not only did they make their own their own line better, right? They drafted Keelan Rutledge. They signed Miles Teller, one of the best offen or one of the best guards in league. Jarod McInroy: Miles Teller, the actor? Nathan Hawthorne: No, not Miles Teller. The actor. It's Mil Miles Teller. Am I am I going crazy? Or are you just throwing a bone? Jarod McInroy: It might be. I don't know. I just I hadn't heard that name. There we go. You good? Hey top gun. Nathan Hawthorne: I'm pretty sure I'm pr I'm s you know you're right. No, you're right. It's Wyatt Teller. My fault. Hey, that's on me. They they've got Wyatt Teller. They've got they drafted Keelan Rutledge. They've made their offensive line better. You had Woody Woody Marks, and then you brought in David Montgomery. So you're gonna be taking a lot of the pressure off of CJ Stroud to be a great passer. Nico Collins, if he can stay healthy. Tank Dell if he can stay healthy. Like this the offense is good. The offense is good. And you're the you're s Jarod McInroy: Yeah, they're really good and also Nick Cayley, yes. That's Nathan Hawthorne: second year with Nick Cayley, like trending up. Jarod McInroy: what I was gonna say. I was gonna pull a page out of your book, the big offensive coordinator guy over here. they looked r refreshed last year. And again, it wasn't that he was coming out here with these like really elaborate schemes. They were doing a lot of the right things the right way. but they also just looked calmer. They looked more CJ Stroud looked a lot calmer in in his decision making. I felt like he trusted his receivers a little more to be in s in the spots that they needed to. he didn't push it into you know, any crazy windows he he didn't need to, but also they were able to rely on that defense. So that is that's another piece of the game that when you're not on the field over and over and over again and you get those long breaks and like you you do come out ready to go. So, No, I hope they keep building on it. I hope they prove us right. I think they will prove us right. I'm gonna go smash two overs on on the Jags and the Texans for sure. But Nathan Hawthorne: Same. Same. Jarod McInroy: let's let's let's wrap this up with what we think the the final standings will be. Like I kind of alluded to, I think the Texans will finish first, Jags second, Colts third, Titans fourth. Nathan Hawthorne: That's insane. I don't know how I don't know how you have that list. Because I have the exact same one. Get out of my head, bro. Get out of my head. Yeah, I think that's Jarod McInroy: No, perfect. Perfect. But you don't want to go into Tennessee. Nathan Hawthorne: You they're a feisty team. I mean, Houst Jarod McInroy: Mm-hmm. Nathan Hawthorne: Houston certainly certainly doesn't have to worry. The Jags maybe can get a little bit flustered on that defensive side of the football, but I mean, they still they're a hard nosed team. Anyways, that's gonna Jarod McInroy: Yeah. Alright. Nathan Hawthorne: do. Jarod McInroy: That's gonna do it for the AFC South though. That's that's we're we're gonna keep bringing these. We got a lot of odds in front of us, and hey, don't put any actual currency on our takes if you want to. It's not a bad idea. But Nathan Hawthorne: No, put throw your money down. I ain't never been wrong.