Latest / Bloomberg Intelligence / Disney+ Price to Jump 13% to $21.49 Per Month
Transcript
- 0:02Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios.
- 0:04Speaker 2: Podcasts.
- 0:05Speaker 3: Radio.
- 0:06Speaker 4: News.
- 0:09Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live
- 0:13Speaker 1: weekdays at 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android
- 0:16Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever
- 0:19Speaker 1: you get your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- 0:24Speaker 2: Are you a Disney Plus subscriber, either of you guys?
- 0:27Speaker 4: I was. I go back and forth.
- 0:29Speaker 2: I think that's a big jump, 13%.
- 0:31Speaker 4: I know.
- 0:31Speaker 3: Double-digit percentage change and, like, to 2149, that's a different
- 0:35Speaker 3: level of, you know, do I want to partake in
- 0:37Speaker 3: this or not? I was just thinking, while you were
- 0:39Speaker 3: reading some of the latest headlines, if you type Top
- 0:42Speaker 3: Worldwide Go on the Bloomberg Terminal, every... not every, but
- 0:45Speaker 3: many of the headlines are all reaffirming this inflation theme.
- 0:49Speaker 3: The big take today is about how a $ 5, 000 bike
- 0:52Speaker 3: shows why it's hard to build in America. You talked
- 0:54Speaker 3: about the Disney Plus price hike, U.S. mortgage rates climbing
- 0:58Speaker 3: above 7%, Treasuries swooning because this PMI data is reviving
- 1:02Speaker 3: inflation woes. You can't get away from it.
- 1:04Speaker 2: No, inflation is everywhere seemingly, and including in the streaming business.
- 1:08Speaker 2: So let's check out this Disney News here. We can
- 1:10Speaker 2: do that with Geetha Ranganathan. She covers all the media
- 1:12Speaker 2: stocks for Bloomberg Intelligence. Geetha, I don't know, 13% seems
- 1:17Speaker 2: like a big jump here. What's behind it for Disney
- 1:20Speaker 2: raising the prices here on Disney Plus?
- 1:23Speaker 5: Yeah, they're just keeping up here with the Joneses, Paul. So,
- 1:26Speaker 5: you know, everybody in the streaming world has obviously been
- 1:29Speaker 5: raising prices. And really the narrative for all of the
- 1:32Speaker 5: streamers and all of the media companies has shifted away from,
- 1:34Speaker 5: you know, chasing subscriber growth to chasing profitability. And the
- 1:39Speaker 5: one way that you chase profitability is implement these price
- 1:42Speaker 5: increases from time to time. But I will point out that, yes, while,
- 1:45Speaker 5: you know, all of the streamers have been, you know,
- 1:47Speaker 5: increasing prices.
- 1:48Speaker 4: At periodic intervals.
- 1:50Speaker 5: Disney, in fact, has been one of the most aggressive
- 1:52Speaker 5: in terms of pricing increases. So they introduced Disney Plus
- 1:56Speaker 5: in 2019. And just before this price increase that was
- 1:59Speaker 5: just announced, they have actually increased their prices by about
- 2:03Speaker 5: 170 percent. So it's been a really steep increase from
- 2:08Speaker 5: $ 6. 99 to almost $ 19 right before this price hike today.
- 2:13Speaker 5: You compare that to an established player like Netflix, which
- 2:16Speaker 5: has only probably raised its prices by about 45% over
- 2:19Speaker 5: the past five years. So Disney definitely has been one
- 2:21Speaker 5: of the most aggressive. But again, this all goes back
- 2:24Speaker 5: to that profitability equation and them chasing those high operating
- 2:29Speaker 5: margins in the streaming business.
- 2:31Speaker 3: Just for context here, the Disney Plus and Hulu with
- 2:34Speaker 3: advertising will cost $ 12. 49 per month on a standalone basis.
- 2:38Speaker 6: Okay.
- 2:39Speaker 3: And that's quite a bit to have to pay to
- 2:41Speaker 3: watch for commercials, too. Geetha, you mentioned that. Disney Plus
- 2:46Speaker 3: is now chasing profitability as opposed to chasing eyeballs, which
- 2:49Speaker 3: kind of was the former business model. At that time,
- 2:51Speaker 3: it was all about subscriber additions, and you got that
- 2:54Speaker 3: through global markets.
- 2:56Speaker 4: The U.S.
- 2:57Speaker 3: Was always seen as the more profitable user base. Does
- 3:00Speaker 3: that mean that these streamers are now recommitting to monetizing
- 3:04Speaker 3: their U.S. base and trying to target that U.S. base
- 3:06Speaker 3: more than they are looking to build on gaining market
- 3:09Speaker 3: share globally?
- 3:11Speaker 5: Yes, I think you absolutely hit the nail there on
- 3:14Speaker 5: the head, Scarlett. It has become all about monetization. And again,
- 3:18Speaker 5: you pointed to the advertising part of the business, the
- 3:22Speaker 5: Disney and Hulu bundle with ads. Advertising is another big
- 3:25Speaker 5: monetization mechanism. So for those subscribers who are unwilling to
- 3:29Speaker 5: pay the much heavier price for the ad-free product, you know,
- 3:34Speaker 5: they still do have that cheaper ad-supported version that they're
- 3:38Speaker 5: kind of pushing customers to. The one thing that I
- 3:41Speaker 5: would kind of try to point out with Disney, which
- 3:43Speaker 5: is different from other streamers, is Disney still gets majority
- 3:47Speaker 5: of its subscriber additions through the bundle. So the Disney
- 3:51Speaker 5: bundle is still kind of this inherent value proposition, which
- 3:55Speaker 5: none of the other streamers really have. I mean, you know,
- 3:58Speaker 5: Netflix doesn't have that, HBO doesn't have that, but Disney
- 4:01Speaker 5: has this unique value kind of value proposition with Hulu,
- 4:04Speaker 5: Disney +, as well as ESPN. And so, you know,
- 4:07Speaker 5: we have seen time and time again that even if
- 4:09Speaker 5: prices have gone up, churn necessarily hasn't because they've been
- 4:13Speaker 5: able to sell the bundle. But you're absolutely right. Monetization
- 4:16Speaker 5: is the new mantra for all of these streamers.
- 4:19Speaker 2: So, Geetha, how profitable is the streaming business today in
- 4:23Speaker 2: terms of maybe like profit margins and maybe where do
- 4:25Speaker 2: they want to get to?
- 4:27Speaker 4: Yeah.
- 4:28Speaker 5: So, you know, Paul, we've spoken about this so many times,
- 4:30Speaker 5: but just like two years ago, Disney actually posted about
- 4:33Speaker 5: a $ 4 billion loss on the Disney Plus streaming business. Today,
- 4:38Speaker 5: we're looking at almost about $ 2. 5 to $ 3 billion of profit.
- 4:43Speaker 5: But ultimately, the number, it all comes down to the margins.
- 4:47Speaker 5: So with that $ 3 billion of profit, they're going to
- 4:50Speaker 5: be posting about maybe 11%, 12% operating margin profit. But
- 4:54Speaker 5: the number that everybody is chasing in the industry is
- 4:57Speaker 5: the Netflix number, which is 30 percent operating margin. And
- 5:01Speaker 5: Netflix itself is trying to get to a 40 percent
- 5:04Speaker 5: operating margin. So everybody has, you know, the goalposts are
- 5:07Speaker 5: constantly moving. But really, the 30 percent or anything even
- 5:11Speaker 5: above 25 percent, it would really be very, very desirable
- 5:15Speaker 5: for any of these rather relatively newer streamers.
- 5:18Speaker 3: How does a Netflix get to 40% margins? Is that,
- 5:21Speaker 3: I mean, Netflix is now going to hike its price
- 5:23Speaker 3: as well? Is that the only way to do it?
- 5:26Speaker 5: Yeah, they're going to have to hike their prices, but
- 5:28Speaker 5: they're going to have to do it very, very carefully
- 5:31Speaker 5: because Netflix over the past few months, they've really been
- 5:35Speaker 5: battling this whole weakness in engagement. So people not engaging
- 5:40Speaker 5: with Netflix content as much as they used to before,
- 5:43Speaker 5: And there's a real worry on the streets, Scarlett, that
- 5:45Speaker 5: that is ultimately going to lead to a revenue decline
- 5:48Speaker 5: and possibly put pressure on margins. So this is something
- 5:52Speaker 5: that they're going to have to address. They do have
- 5:53Speaker 5: a few growth levers in terms of advertising, in terms
- 5:56Speaker 5: of price hikes. But again, it's going to be a very,
- 5:59Speaker 5: very careful balancing act, especially as their content budget keeps climbing.
- 6:03Speaker 5: So remember, this year, it is going up 10% to
- 6:07Speaker 5: $ 20 billion. So they are one of the hugest content
- 6:10Speaker 5: spenders in the media industry today.
- 6:13Speaker 4: All right.
- 6:13Speaker 2: We've got for the stock of Disney, 35 buy ratings,
- 6:16Speaker 2: three holds, and one sell. Why we have 39 analysts
- 6:20Speaker 2: following one stock, I have no idea. I'm assuming 35
- 6:23Speaker 2: of them are not getting paid commissions, but they're still
- 6:26Speaker 2: covering it. So yet the stock is down 8%, 9%
- 6:29Speaker 2: year to date. Geetha, what's the investor consensus about the
- 6:34Speaker 2: Disney story these days?
- 6:36Speaker 5: Yeah, we really need some kind of catalyst, Paul, some
- 6:39Speaker 5: kind of really big catalyst that can move this name. And,
- 6:42Speaker 5: you know, earlier this year, I think the big concerns
- 6:44Speaker 5: around Disney was, is consumer demand slowing? Are we going
- 6:48Speaker 5: to see weakness at the parks? We heard a lot
- 6:49Speaker 5: of noise about international visitation really kind of weakening. We
- 6:54Speaker 5: heard comments from Comcast about, you know, their universal parks
- 6:58Speaker 5: kind of seeing some weakness in Orlando. Somehow Disney has
- 7:01Speaker 5: managed to steer clear of all of that. They've kind
- 7:04Speaker 5: of shown us that they can grow park attendance, they
- 7:06Speaker 5: can grow park profitability. But there is this looming concern
- 7:11Speaker 5: about what is going to be the next big growth catalyst.
- 7:15Speaker 5: Is it going to be streaming? How are they going
- 7:17Speaker 5: to be able to achieve that? Especially as every day
- 7:19Speaker 5: you have newer and newer concerns especially with any of
- 7:23Speaker 5: these subscription models. The latest concern, of course, has been
- 7:25Speaker 5: with Muse, you know, the new meta AI agent, which
- 7:28Speaker 5: can basically go and, you know, cut out some of
- 7:31Speaker 5: your pricey subscriptions. So I think anybody with a subscription
- 7:33Speaker 5: model is going to have to be really, really careful here.
- 7:37Speaker 2: I didn't even think of that.
- 7:38Speaker 3: Okay, that is kind of a useful thing for that app.
- 7:40Speaker 3: Maybe I will download it. I will concede to that point. Geetha,
- 7:44Speaker 3: of course, there's a lot of big news around Paramount Skydance,
- 7:47Speaker 3: you know, settling with California and other states, but I...
- 7:51Speaker 3: Notice there was one story here, and this kind of
- 7:54Speaker 3: ties in with our conversation about streaming overall, about Pluto TV,
- 7:57Speaker 3: which is part of Paramount Skydance. There's a new ad
- 8:01Speaker 3: campaign for Pluto TV, which is a free streaming service
- 8:04Speaker 3: with the slogan, free is only getting more popular. And
- 8:07Speaker 3: it ties in nicely with everything we've been talking about
- 8:09Speaker 3: with Disney +, hiking its prices, Netflix having no choice
- 8:12Speaker 3: but to.
- 8:12Speaker 2: Do that as well.
- 8:14Speaker 3: I mean, what does Pluto TV do? Is it a
- 8:17Speaker 3: replacement for HBO, for Netflix, for Hulu?
- 8:22Speaker 5: It is not a replacement, unfortunately, for Netflix or Hulu.
- 8:28Speaker 5: But it does give you some of your older shows,
- 8:31Speaker 5: what people call comfort food television. And you're not really
- 8:35Speaker 5: going to be paying anything for it. Of course, you
- 8:37Speaker 5: have to watch a bunch of ads. Some people are
- 8:39Speaker 5: okay with that as long as they just want to
- 8:40Speaker 5: put something on their television but don't want to be
- 8:43Speaker 5: paying like $ 100 or $ 200 and all of these different
- 8:45Speaker 5: streaming subscriptions. So it kind of works well. We've seen
- 8:48Speaker 5: some of these services actually do really well. Roku Channel
- 8:51Speaker 5: is a great example. Tubi from Fox is a great example.
- 8:55Speaker 5: Pluto TV had a great run initially, but then fell
- 8:58Speaker 5: off the bandwagon a little bit. But I think with
- 9:01Speaker 5: the new management, with Paramount Skydance, with David Ellison, You know,
- 9:05Speaker 5: I think he's going to try and reinvigorate that whole
- 9:08Speaker 5: business just as things are kind of heating up with
- 9:11Speaker 5: Fox and its Roku acquisition. So I think all of
- 9:14Speaker 5: this is kind of going to tie in together nicely
- 9:17Speaker 5: once they all come together.
- 9:18Speaker 3: Stay with us.
- 9:19Speaker 1: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this. You're listening
- 9:26Speaker 1: to the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at
- 9:30Speaker 1: 10 a.m. Eastern on Apple CarPlay and Android Auto with
- 9:33Speaker 1: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get
- 9:36Speaker 1: your podcasts or watch us live on YouTube.
- 9:40Speaker 2: While I'm taking Scarlett, my first cruise ever. in about
- 9:43Speaker 2: 10 days.
- 9:45Speaker 3: Which one did you pick, by the way?
- 9:46Speaker 2: Viking cruise in France.
- 9:48Speaker 3: Okay. What prompted you to decide to take the plunge?
- 9:53Speaker 2: I was told I'm taking the plunge.
- 9:55Speaker 5: Oh, okay. All right.
- 9:56Speaker 2: That's the easiest way. I said, okay, I'm going with
- 9:58Speaker 2: an experienced cruiser, so I figured... And a river cruise,
- 10:01Speaker 2: I was told you need to walk before you can run,
- 10:03Speaker 2: before you take a big ocean.
- 10:04Speaker 4: Ah, okay, smart, smart.
- 10:04Speaker 5: So there you go.
- 10:05Speaker 2: So anyway, this story jumped out at me today. Royal
- 10:07Speaker 2: Caribbean buys a 50% stake in Sandals Resorts for about
- 10:10Speaker 2: $ 3 billion. So I figured we've got to get Brian
- 10:13Speaker 2: Egger on here to talk about this. Brian covers all
- 10:14Speaker 2: the cruise companies, the gaming companies, all the fun stuff
- 10:18Speaker 2: out there, the hotels, motels, all that stuff. Brian, what's
- 10:20Speaker 2: Royal Caribbean doing here? This is a little bit unusual.
- 10:25Speaker 4: Royal Caribbean, along with Carnival and Viking, have been developing
- 10:29Speaker 4: island-based destinations. This is part of a continued, maybe you'd
- 10:34Speaker 4: call it a land-based strategy, to augment their cruise assets
- 10:38Speaker 4: with destination ports of call and land-based assets. This is
- 10:42Speaker 4: a bit different because, obviously, they are all-inclusive, dedicated resorts.
- 10:48Speaker 3: Which are seeing a moment, right? Which are a big
- 10:50Speaker 3: thing right now.
- 10:50Speaker 5: Yes, exactly.
- 10:51Speaker 4: So while it is a departure, it's not entirely far
- 10:57Speaker 4: afield for them because they are already involved in island-based destinations.
- 11:01Speaker 3: I like that idea. Land-based strategy, island-based destinations. This is
- 11:06Speaker 3: a purchase of 50% of sandals. Why not go all in?
- 11:11Speaker 4: So, I mean, we don't know exactly the strategic reasons,
- 11:15Speaker 4: but I would say from our perspective, having that equity
- 11:18Speaker 4: exposure while... maybe only tapping part of its existing liquidity
- 11:23Speaker 4: and not having to lever up. And at the same time,
- 11:26Speaker 4: you know, it may be part of the consideration. They
- 11:29Speaker 4: get tax exemptions from being an international shipping operator. This
- 11:33Speaker 4: basically keeps that part of a separate joint venture. So
- 11:37Speaker 4: I think the scale of it makes sense. I think
- 11:40Speaker 4: had they done something that was more than 50 percent
- 11:43Speaker 4: of control would have levered up quite a bit.
- 11:46Speaker 2: All right, so I'm paying, I don't know, $ 4. 50 a
- 11:50Speaker 2: gallon to fill up the Vespa. If I've got a
- 11:54Speaker 2: big cruise ship and I'm loading, I could pull up
- 11:57Speaker 2: and I've got to fill up with, I guess it's
- 11:58Speaker 2: bunker fuel?
- 11:59Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah.
- 12:00Speaker 2: That's really expensive, too. What is going on there? How
- 12:03Speaker 2: did the cruise ship industry, how did they deal with
- 12:05Speaker 2: these rising fuel costs?
- 12:07Speaker 4: So, short answer to the question, they do some hedging.
- 12:10Speaker 4: Not Carnival, but Royal Norwegian. And we had a note
- 12:14Speaker 4: out this morning actually talking about the fuel cost exposure,
- 12:16Speaker 4: which we were more concerned about maybe a week ago
- 12:19Speaker 4: with brand of 110. Now it's down just about 100. But,
- 12:22Speaker 4: you know, we are aware of this fact because Carnival
- 12:25Speaker 4: reports earnings next week. When they last reported in June,
- 12:29Speaker 4: Brent was at 77 bucks. So they're all updated. There
- 12:33Speaker 4: are fuel cost exposure. They can mitigate it with some efficiencies.
- 12:37Speaker 4: This is only part of the picture, but obviously higher
- 12:39Speaker 4: fuel costs are challenging. There is a ticker on the
- 12:42Speaker 4: Bloomberg terminal for this bunker fuel stuff. I'm not sure
- 12:44Speaker 4: if I picked up the right one, but January, it was,
- 12:48Speaker 4: call it $ 425 per metric ton.
- 12:49Speaker 2: Now it's $ 845 per metric ton. Imagine pulling up and
- 12:50Speaker 2: filling up your....
- 12:57Speaker 4: Tank.
- 12:58Speaker 3: And have it be double what it was before. So
- 13:01Speaker 3: that raises a good point because we know that Paul
- 13:03Speaker 3: booked his Viking cruise, what, like a year ago?
- 13:05Speaker 4: Yeah. Okay.
- 13:06Speaker 3: So, I mean, Viking had that booked for them. They
- 13:09Speaker 3: knew it was coming up and they have visibility. But
- 13:12Speaker 3: for the cruise line operators that are now booking people
- 13:15Speaker 3: for a year out, have those prices gone way up
- 13:18Speaker 3: because of the fuel prices?
- 13:20Speaker 4: They're not doing anything like fuel price surcharges. But that
- 13:23Speaker 4: being said, the underlying demand for leisure-based vacations for cruises
- 13:27Speaker 4: has been really strong. Overall, the bookings have been really
- 13:31Speaker 4: quite robust for cruises generally, with the exception of Eastern
- 13:35Speaker 4: Mediterranean cruises affected by the conflict in the Middle East.
- 13:38Speaker 4: So the conflict in Iran is- That's a separate thing.
- 13:41Speaker 4: Twofold impact. Although, but that's one of the causes, obviously,
- 13:44Speaker 4: of higher fuel costs. So it really has a dual impact.
- 13:47Speaker 2: Yeah.
- 13:48Speaker 6: All right.
- 13:48Speaker 2: Enough on that stuff. Let's get to the casinos. How's
- 13:51Speaker 2: Vegas doing? How's the strip doing? How are my friends
- 13:53Speaker 2: on the strip doing?
- 13:54Speaker 4: So better, I guess you could say, better or stabilizing
- 13:57Speaker 4: versus last year. 2025 is a tough year for Vegas.
- 14:00Speaker 4: A lot of softer midweek visitation, a little bit of
- 14:03Speaker 4: sticker shock from some more price conscious visitors. So visitation
- 14:08Speaker 4: was down last year. It's flattish this year to date.
- 14:12Speaker 4: So it's not exactly robust. The convention business has been strong.
- 14:16Speaker 4: But the midweek leisure business, particularly for more value-conscious consumers,
- 14:21Speaker 4: lower-priced casinos is softer. Where you stay, they don't lower
- 14:24Speaker 4: the prices.
- 14:25Speaker 5: Well, the Bellagio.
- 14:26Speaker 2: I state the High Roller Suite, of course.
- 14:27Speaker 4: Or the Bellagio. You have a lot of pricing stability.
- 14:29Speaker 2: Where does the lower-end... Because when I started going to Vegas,
- 14:33Speaker 2: there was a lot of stuff on the Strip that
- 14:34Speaker 2: you could go that was not the Mirage, which was
- 14:37Speaker 2: a high-end property at the time. Where do people go now?
- 14:40Speaker 2: Do they go downtown Vegas or go off Strip?
- 14:43Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean, there is a– and there are some
- 14:45Speaker 4: Strip properties that are more affordable, relatively speaking, some owned
- 14:49Speaker 4: by Caesars, etc., Wynn is the exception on the very
- 14:52Speaker 4: high end. But if you look at what's happening in Vegas,
- 14:55Speaker 4: it's pretty much analogous to what's happening in hotels. You
- 14:57Speaker 4: have the high end a bit stronger, the low end
- 15:00Speaker 4: feeling a bit more price pressure. Luxury high end consumers
- 15:03Speaker 4: are still spending. We're wary of that could change, but
- 15:08Speaker 4: there is that kind of C-shaped economy.
- 15:11Speaker 5: Oh, boy.
- 15:11Speaker 3: Okay, so I guess the question is, how has it
- 15:16Speaker 3: been responding to the flattish visitation growth that it's been
- 15:21Speaker 3: seeing the last few years? Did it change its strategy
- 15:24Speaker 3: in any way?
- 15:24Speaker 4: I don't think they've overall changed their strategy, but they've
- 15:27Speaker 4: probably been more conscious about consumers reacting to higher prices
- 15:32Speaker 4: for certain things that they might take for granted, bottles
- 15:34Speaker 4: of water, et cetera. So the consumer that wants a
- 15:37Speaker 4: luxury experience staying at Wynn they're going to pay those rates.
- 15:40Speaker 4: They expect that experience. For more value-based consumers, I think,
- 15:44Speaker 4: and MGM has even said this, they become more conscious
- 15:48Speaker 4: that that middle-tier consumer or more price conscious is going
- 15:52Speaker 4: to block it paying those super high prices. Stay with us.
- 15:55Speaker 3: More from Bloomberg Intelligence coming up after this.
- 16:01Speaker 1: You're listening to Bloomberg Intelligence with Scarlett Fu and Paul
- 16:05Speaker 1: Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio.
- 16:09Speaker 2: All right, it's Scarlett Philp, Paul Sweeney, live here in
- 16:10Speaker 2: our Bloomberg Interactive Broker Studio in New York City. We're
- 16:14Speaker 2: also streaming live on YouTube as well. I'm streaming live
- 16:16Speaker 2: at Bloomberg.com as well. General Mills, consumer products company, they
- 16:20Speaker 2: reported some numbers. I thought they were pretty darn good.
- 16:22Speaker 2: Stocks pretty much unchanged on the day. Stocks down 24%
- 16:26Speaker 2: year to date. Consumer products companies hit with concerns about
- 16:30Speaker 2: inflation and the consumer and changing different diet habits out
- 16:35Speaker 2: there in the world. It's some challenges for those consumer
- 16:37Speaker 2: products companies. But we want to get the latest on
- 16:40Speaker 2: their results. We turn to Emily Cohn. She's a consumer
- 16:42Speaker 2: team leader for Bloomberg News joining us here in studio. Emily,
- 16:46Speaker 2: what did General Mills say about their business with their
- 16:48Speaker 2: most recent quarterly earnings?
- 16:49Speaker 6: Yeah, so they reported a quarterly earnings beat, but a
- 16:53Speaker 6: lot of, you know, some doom and gloom there on
- 16:55Speaker 6: the consumer and the consumer being stressed, especially the middle
- 17:00Speaker 6: to lower consumer. They talked about shoppers waiting to buy
- 17:04Speaker 6: products until they're on sale. These are all concerning signs
- 17:08Speaker 6: that I think are weighing on the stock.
- 17:11Speaker 2: Yeah, so I mean, it's down about half a percent today,
- 17:13Speaker 2: but again, down 24% on a year-to-date basis here. I mean,
- 17:19Speaker 2: what I've heard from a lot of consumer products companies
- 17:21Speaker 2: is some of these private label store brands are actually
- 17:26Speaker 2: taking some share away from some of the more branded
- 17:28Speaker 2: products out there on the on the shelves in the supermarkets.
- 17:32Speaker 2: Is that what General Mills is seeing?
- 17:34Speaker 6: It's a really good point. I think this is affecting
- 17:37Speaker 6: companies like General Mills and Kraft Heinz, where you see
- 17:40Speaker 6: two things happening. You see the private label getting more
- 17:44Speaker 6: premium and more people shopping down to private label. And
- 17:47Speaker 6: then you see on the premium side, brands like Goodles
- 17:51Speaker 6: that cost more than your Kraft macaroni and cheese, but
- 17:54Speaker 6: offer things in terms of fiber and protein.
- 17:58Speaker 4: So you see.
- 18:00Speaker 6: More in the private label, more in the premium side.
- 18:04Speaker 6: And then that really puts a squeeze on what I
- 18:07Speaker 6: think of as these middle brands, the General Mills. And
- 18:11Speaker 6: that's why you see General Mills coming out and saying,
- 18:13Speaker 6: I think their approach to pricing is to charge more
- 18:19Speaker 6: for things that have extras, Cheerios with protein, other foods
- 18:25Speaker 6: with fiber. So that's a way of raising prices with
- 18:30Speaker 6: maybe not raising prices across the board.
- 18:33Speaker 2: We've now had, I guess, several years of pretty widespread
- 18:37Speaker 2: GLP-1 use out there in the marketplace. What are these
- 18:42Speaker 2: food companies saying? Has it really impacted their business? Are
- 18:46Speaker 2: people really eating less across the board?
- 18:49Speaker 6: I think food companies tend to say when you look
- 18:51Speaker 6: at a family's basket size, there's not much changing. But
- 18:55Speaker 6: you definitely see consumption... habits changing, especially on these ultra-processed foods.
- 19:04Speaker 6: I think ultra-processed foods that don't offer any nutrition are struggling.
- 19:10Speaker 6: But where you see growth in the snacking area are
- 19:13Speaker 6: these what we call better-for-you snacks, snacks that offer some
- 19:17Speaker 6: kind of nutritional value, protein, fiber. That's where the growth is,
- 19:23Speaker 6: and that's what you see General Mills talking about where
- 19:25Speaker 6: they're leaning into.
- 19:27Speaker 2: And just so you know, this is a protein-free studio.
- 19:30Speaker 2: I hate that term, but all my kids use it.
- 19:32Speaker 2: I'm like, well, no, you ask if you want chicken
- 19:33Speaker 2: or shrimp or whatever. What protein are we having tonight?
- 19:36Speaker 2: That'll get you kicked out of my kitchen pretty, pretty quick. So,
- 19:40Speaker 2: but that's kind of where the marketplace is going. And
- 19:43Speaker 2: are these food companies keeping up with the, because oftentimes it's,
- 19:47Speaker 2: people talk about innovation, product innovation. What are they bringing
- 19:50Speaker 2: to the market? Is it a different– food? Is it
- 19:52Speaker 2: different packaging? Is it different sizing? How are they trying
- 19:55Speaker 2: to react?
- 19:56Speaker 6: I think it's all of the above. I think you're
- 19:57Speaker 6: going to see changes in sizing and assortment, and then
- 20:01Speaker 6: also these more premium products that they can charge more for.
- 20:04Speaker 6: We have a story today about Kraft Heinz seeing much
- 20:08Speaker 6: faster growth in its Heinz Simply label, which is their
- 20:12Speaker 6: ketchup that strips out all the, you know, quote-unquote bad ingredients,
- 20:18Speaker 6: and they charge more per ounce for it.
- 20:20Speaker 2: Do they? And it's selling.
- 20:21Speaker 6: I And the growth of the Simply Ketchup is outpacing
- 20:27Speaker 6: the growth of.
- 20:28Speaker 2: The regular ketchup. I wonder if my shopping basket has
- 20:31Speaker 2: changed much over the last 20 or 30 years. Probably not.
- 20:35Speaker 2: But for the younger demos coming in, younger parents coming
- 20:38Speaker 2: into the store, they have different tastes. And it's up
- 20:42Speaker 2: to the companies to keep up with it, I guess.
- 20:44Speaker 6: Totally, totally.
- 20:45Speaker 2: How is it in terms of getting shove space these days?
- 20:48Speaker 4: It's still.
- 20:49Speaker 2: Super duper competitive to get proper shelf space, not to
- 20:52Speaker 2: be done on the floor or way up out of reach.
- 20:54Speaker 2: Is that still a game they play?
- 20:56Speaker 6: Yeah, I think there's a lot of pressure coming from
- 20:58Speaker 6: the retailers. We had a story last week about the
- 21:01Speaker 6: retailers being warned by the food companies that higher prices
- 21:07Speaker 6: are coming. And I don't know if the retailers are
- 21:12Speaker 6: willing to play ball. We had a story also this
- 21:16Speaker 6: week about Boar's Head and Red Bull disappearing from some
- 21:21Speaker 6: Kroger stores over these price negotiations. Because Kroger, their whole
- 21:25Speaker 6: strategy right now is to bring prices down. But some
- 21:28Speaker 6: products are bringing their prices up. So- It's really a
- 21:33Speaker 6: question of who has more power in this negotiation.
- 21:35Speaker 2: I was going to say, I mean, Boar's Head and
- 21:37Speaker 2: Red Bull, those are major brands. Yeah. Brand value.
- 21:40Speaker 6: Well, Red Bull, I mean, that's a really competitive space
- 21:43Speaker 6: right now. So Kroger is saying that their energy drinks
- 21:46Speaker 6: are up despite not carrying Red Bull.
- 21:49Speaker 1: Okay.
- 21:49Speaker 6: So there are all these new entrants, Alani New, that
- 21:51Speaker 6: are selling like crazy. Maybe they don't need the pricey
- 21:54Speaker 6: Red Bulls.
- 21:55Speaker 1: This is the Bloomberg Intelligence Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify,
- 22:00Speaker 1: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday,
- 22:04Speaker 1: 10 a.m. to noon Eastern, on Bloomberg.com, the iHeartRadio app, TuneIn,
- 22:10Speaker 1: and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us
- 22:13Speaker 1: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg Terminal.